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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Pereltz. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt, and we were back after kind of

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Speaker 2: a unique day. We end up going too and O

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Speaker 2: last night, so we're up two units on the day.

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Speaker 2: So it was good hockey wins. We get their easy

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Speaker 2: it was for nothing after one period, so we got

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Speaker 2: that right. The NBA player prop with Cooper flag they

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Speaker 2: came in. But the Jalen Johnson prop that I played,

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Speaker 2: he was not on the injury report. He was day

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Speaker 2: to day, but he had been cleared to play last

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Speaker 2: night and then an hour for the game he got scratched,

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Speaker 2: so that was that was unfortunate. So only two bets

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Speaker 2: in play. We wind up going two and I was

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Speaker 2: so up too units on the day. So it's been

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Speaker 2: sort of a yo yo type of week for US. Win, lose, win,

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Speaker 2: lose on this I guess it was a win lose win.

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Speaker 2: So let's see what today brings on a Thursday. So

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Speaker 2: up for the week so far, and we head into

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Speaker 2: Thursday where I've got three bets on THURSDA Night Football

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Speaker 2: between the Lions and the Cowboys. This game is a

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Speaker 2: de facto playoff game. It's an effective elimination game. The

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Speaker 2: team that wins this game is still alive for a

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Speaker 2: postason bid. The team that loses this game, it's pretty

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Speaker 2: much over. I just don't like the vibes for the Lions.

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Speaker 2: I just I gave that out yesterday. I took I

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Speaker 2: got three and a half. It's three. I'm gonna stick

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Speaker 2: with it. I'm gonna take three. If you're concerned about

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Speaker 2: the three, I think you can do a same game teaser.

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Speaker 2: I think you can pull the total down from from

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Speaker 2: fifty four and a half to forty eight and a

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Speaker 2: half or forty and bet the over and then take

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys at plus three to plus nine. I think

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Speaker 2: it's a fine way of playing this game if that's

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Speaker 2: how you want to approach it. I just I have

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Speaker 2: been sort of hesitant on long teasers and same game teasers.

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Speaker 2: The books are wise to it, and the game, the

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Speaker 2: flow of the game is different. Right now, Like, this

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Speaker 2: is a crazy stat from the Action Network that I

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Speaker 2: want to give you guys, because it is pretty pretty remarkable,

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Speaker 2: to give you an idea Right now, entering Week fourteen,

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Speaker 2: there are seventeen teams listed at fifty to one odds

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Speaker 2: below fifty to one odds to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: so shorter odds. That's the most of any season up

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Speaker 2: to this point dating back to twenty ten. The previous

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Speaker 2: high was fifteen teams at below fifty to one odds

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Speaker 2: this late in the year, dating back in twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Right now, there are twelve teams at least four games

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Speaker 2: above five hundred entering Week fourteen. That is tied for

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Speaker 2: the most in NFL history, and all twelve of those

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Speaker 2: teams are under fifty to one to win it all.

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Speaker 1: There are ten.

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Speaker 2: Teams currently listed below twenty to one odds to win

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Speaker 2: it all, which is the most for such teams that

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Speaker 2: we've had since twenty ten when there were eleven. So

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Speaker 2: what does that mean. That means that nobody knows anything. Okay,

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Speaker 2: my former co host would say the other word. Okay,

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Speaker 2: nobody knows bleep about what's going on right now in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. It is wide open. It is wide wide open.

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Speaker 2: And so we have the Seahawks at fourteen to one

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Speaker 2: and the Patriots at eleven to one. But if you

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Speaker 2: want to go take the Bears at twenty five to one.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to argue they're a one seat at

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Speaker 2: the moment. You want to go find the Packers eighteen

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Speaker 2: nineteen somewhere in that range.

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Speaker 1: Go right ahead.

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Speaker 2: You want to go and try to find somebody else

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Speaker 2: longer shot. This is crazy. We are so wide open

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Speaker 2: right now in the NFL, and so that's why teasing

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Speaker 2: the books. Don't know what's gonna happen, like the books

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Speaker 2: are confused by the numbers, and thus moving numbers doesn't

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Speaker 2: always come into play. You're not getting the benefit this

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Speaker 2: year by teasing games the way that we used to

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Speaker 2: because of the fact that.

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Speaker 1: We know it is a parlay.

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Speaker 2: So you're making it more difficult for yourself just to

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Speaker 2: win or lose one play. You got to win two

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Speaker 2: plays to win one in a parlay or a teaser.

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Speaker 2: So we're making it more difficult on ourselves, in particular

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Speaker 2: with how topsy turvy and wonky this year has been

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. Now, we've done pretty well in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Let me see if I can pull that up real quick,

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Speaker 2: what the record is for plays in the NFL in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Okay, we're slowly starting to get back.

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Speaker 2: We're still pretty much we're still behind. The Thanksgiving holiday

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Speaker 2: really put us behind, so this isn't going to be

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Speaker 2: totally accurate about a week behind, but going into the

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Speaker 2: Thanksgiving Day week, we were hitting at a fifty seven

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Speaker 2: point five percent clip, up about twelve units in the

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Speaker 2: NFL and NFL Player props. We're hitting in a sixty

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Speaker 2: percent clip for twenty twenty five, up over five units.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we've done really well in the NFL

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Speaker 2: this year and at the end of last year. But

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Speaker 2: it's a very difficult year. This has been this has

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Speaker 2: been tough. So I've already given you out Dallas plus

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Speaker 2: three and a half. That's a bet you guys could

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Speaker 2: have played.

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Speaker 1: You play now. We gave it out yesterday. It's live

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Speaker 1: for tonight.

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Speaker 2: I like the Cowboys here because I think the injuries

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Speaker 2: are so dramatic for that defense, for the for the Lions.

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Speaker 1: But we're going to add to it.

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Speaker 2: So we got Dallas plus three. What else are we doing? Well,

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Speaker 2: here's the thing. You start pulling up some stats in

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Speaker 2: numbers involving the Cowboys. They are ten and two this

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Speaker 2: year to their team total being over. The total of

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Speaker 2: this game is fifty four and a half, and the

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Speaker 2: team to over the Cowboys is twenty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: That seems like like.

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Speaker 2: Stunningly low to me, to be quite honest, given what

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Speaker 2: this Cowboys offense has looked like. So the Cowboys, let's

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Speaker 2: talk about their numbers. Thirty one points against the Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: twenty four points against the Eagles, thirty three points against

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Speaker 2: the Raiders, seventeen points against Arizona, twenty four points again Denver,

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Speaker 2: forty four points against Washington, twenty seven points against Carolina,

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Speaker 2: thirty seven points against the Jets, forty points against the Packers,

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Speaker 2: you get my point. Okay, twenty five and a half

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Speaker 2: in a dome in primetime with Dak Prescott for an

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Speaker 2: offense that has been extremely.

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Speaker 1: Productive this season.

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Speaker 2: The Dallas offense is averaging twenty nine point three points

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Speaker 2: per game, second best in the NFL. They're averaging six

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Speaker 2: point one yards per play, third best in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna move the football.

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Speaker 2: Now. The Lions offense is very good too. You can

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Speaker 2: bet the over in this game. But the offense for

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Speaker 2: the Lions has been somewhat inconsistent. It's been hit or

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Speaker 2: miss with this team. And last week, in a game

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Speaker 2: that they absolutely had to have against the Bears, they

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Speaker 2: didn't win it in overtime.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, they won it, but they didn't cover.

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Speaker 2: As the game went to overtime, they were laying it

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Speaker 2: was a push, I guess, but thirty one to twenty four,

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Speaker 2: so you look, I mean sorry. Against Green Bay they

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Speaker 2: were seven point favorites. They lost Togain, not the Giants,

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Speaker 2: not the Giant. Sorry, they lost to green Bay outright,

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Speaker 2: So everyone's gonna run and say, you know, bet the

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Speaker 2: trend for what has happened here for the Lions. They

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Speaker 2: lose Dan Campbell the next week. He's highly effective. He wins,

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Speaker 2: he covers. They were thirteen and one ATS before they

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Speaker 2: ended up losing to the Giants. That was the game

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Speaker 2: they didn't cover. They won, but they didn't cover as

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Speaker 2: monster favorites. They lost to Eagles, they didn't cover, and

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Speaker 2: then they lost to Green Bay. So if you look

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Speaker 2: at just from an ATS perspective, this has not been

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Speaker 2: a good year at all for this team. So they

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Speaker 2: have failed to cover in three consecutive games. In four

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Speaker 2: of their last five games they have failed to cover.

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Speaker 2: They were three point thirteen point eight point favorites two

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Speaker 2: and a half point dogs to Philadelphia. They lost by

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Speaker 2: seven on the road in that game. On the flip side,

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys have won and covered three straight games against

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs, Eagles, and Raiders. It's been pretty impressive what

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Speaker 2: this defense has looked like since the buye and since

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Speaker 2: they made the trades for two defensive players, plus they

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Speaker 2: got healthy getting three more defensive players, it's a totally

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Speaker 2: different Dallas team. So I'm a little concerned about how

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Speaker 2: many points Detroit's going to score tonight. To be quite honest,

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Speaker 2: I'm not in love with how many points Detroit gets into,

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Speaker 2: so I'm worried about that. It could be a twenty

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Speaker 2: a twenty seven to twenty four final and then that

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Speaker 2: game it falls fifty one and we're short, So I'm

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Speaker 2: a little hesitant.

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Speaker 1: I'm betting the over a.

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Speaker 2: Fifty four and a half because of how big that

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Speaker 2: number is. But this is, as our guy Andrew Erickson

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Speaker 2: is coined, Ford Field is the course field of the NFL.

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Speaker 2: So for that reason, I think it's better just to

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Speaker 2: go team total, because I do think it's a little

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Speaker 2: bit on the depressed side. We're going team total Dallas

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Speaker 2: over twenty five and a half points for this game

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Speaker 2: Dallas plus three Dallas team total over twenty five and

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Speaker 2: a half. One prop to get into, and it comes

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Speaker 2: from the prop bet cheat sheet. It is Jamiir Gibbs.

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Speaker 2: It's a big number rushing and receiving yards for Jamiir

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Speaker 2: Gibbs to go over one hundred and seventeen and a half. Now,

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Speaker 2: he did not do this against green Bay last week,

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Speaker 2: but against the Giants he had an epic game, So

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Speaker 2: you could say that was just kind of an inevitability

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Speaker 2: when you have two hundred and sixty four yards two

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Speaker 2: hundred and nineteen yards rushing in forty five yards rushing

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Speaker 2: receiving up against the Giants. They win thirty four to

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Speaker 2: twenty seven. Just a ridiculous game for Jamir Gibbs. The

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Speaker 2: next week he's gonna have a difficult time. He's tired.

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Speaker 2: So he only had eighty six sixty eight yards rushing

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Speaker 2: eighteen yards receiving against the Packers. But he's had one

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Speaker 2: seventy two, one forty six and two sixty four after

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Speaker 2: the last time. He didn't have it against the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: We only had twenty eight We like over three four

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Speaker 2: of the last five games to go over. This is

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Speaker 2: a sixty seven percent cover probability. Is a twenty three

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Speaker 2: percent plus percent expected value play five star ranking at

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Speaker 2: the on their Betting Pros prop bet cheat sheet. Jamiir

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Speaker 2: Gibbs over one seventeen and a half rushing and receiving

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Speaker 2: against the Cowboys defense. That still gives up big plays.

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Speaker 2: Even with the Cowboys making changes with their defense, they

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Speaker 2: still give up really big plays both in the screen game,

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Speaker 2: in the passing game, and the run game for that matter.

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Speaker 2: Will took Jamiir Gibbs to go over one seventeen and

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Speaker 2: a half rushing and receiving yards tonight on Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: If you want more breakdown for this game here tonight,

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Speaker 2: plus all the games happening on Monday, sorry on Saturday

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Speaker 2: rather for the national Championships or the conference championships heading

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Speaker 2: to the National Championships for college football. You can join

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Speaker 2: me coming up on my other show at the Bostonian

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Speaker 2: Versus the Book to break down the Cowboys and the Lions.

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Speaker 2: It is a one pm Eastern time start on the

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Speaker 2: Bostonian Versus the Book YouTube channel that is at Boston

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Speaker 2: Versus the Book, same handle on x Live at one pm.

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Speaker 2: Audio podcasts wherever you guys get your audio podcasts. Immediately

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Speaker 2: following the show being over, will break down everything happening

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Speaker 2: for the football weekend. Coming up here today at one

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Speaker 2: o'clock Eastern time. Mine's Matt Paratze. Guys can follow me

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Speaker 2: acus all my socials at Sportstock Matt every morning wherever

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Speaker 2: you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice