WEBVTT - The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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<v Speaker 1>better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Nate Silver, and I forgot during my audio

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<v Speaker 2>equipment to Las Vegas, so that's why I look ridiculous

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<v Speaker 2>if you're watching this on YouTube holding my phone to

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<v Speaker 2>my lips. Today, we have a special kind of year

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<v Speaker 2>end show for you. We're going to be awarding the Riskies.

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<v Speaker 2>This is our term for awards like DJ of the Year,

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<v Speaker 2>NIT of the Year, TILT of the Year, basically a

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<v Speaker 2>bunch of awards to people who made extraordinarily good or

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<v Speaker 2>bad decisions. We're very excited about.

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<v Speaker 1>These, yep. And after the Riskies, we're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>talking a little bit about poker and our own Riskies

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<v Speaker 1>because Nate and I are both in Las Vegas right

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<v Speaker 1>now for the WPT series at the Wins, so we'll

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<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about how that's going. And finally,

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<v Speaker 1>we're actually going to respond to a listener question about

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<v Speaker 1>bilingualism and does it make sense to learn a second language. Nate,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really excited for our first of what I hope

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<v Speaker 1>will be annual Risky Awards, the Riskies to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>good and bad decisions of the year in all walks

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<v Speaker 1>of life. So obviously, you know, we talk a lot

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<v Speaker 1>about politics on the show, so we'll have some from politics,

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<v Speaker 1>but also from business and from sports and Hollywood, just

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<v Speaker 1>talking in general about risky decisions, which ones worked out,

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<v Speaker 1>which ones didn't, which ones were good, which ones were bad.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's get started and talk about awarding the first

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<v Speaker 1>risky for the Hero call of the Year. So a

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<v Speaker 1>decision that looked like it might have been a little

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<v Speaker 1>crazy at the time but turned out to be brilliant, right,

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<v Speaker 1>just like a hero callin poker when you're thinking, you're

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<v Speaker 1>thinking you have jack high and it's your tournament life

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<v Speaker 1>and you end up calling and you're right because the

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<v Speaker 1>other guy was bluffing with eight high or whatever it was. Nate,

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<v Speaker 1>do you have a hero call of the year?

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<v Speaker 2>I think THEO the French Whale has to get the

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<v Speaker 2>Hero Call of the Year awards. So what do you make?

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<v Speaker 2>He ya eighty five billion dollars? So he here the

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<v Speaker 2>French Whale was on Polymarket, which I'm an advisor to,

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<v Speaker 2>and bet copious amounts millions of dollars that Trump would

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<v Speaker 2>win and kind of even like distorted it as a

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<v Speaker 2>loaded term, but like the whole market was effective, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's one trader. Poly market has good volume, but not

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<v Speaker 2>but you know it's not it's not the equities market

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<v Speaker 2>or something like that. Apparently did some polling where he

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<v Speaker 2>asked people, who are your neighbors owning? For this technique

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<v Speaker 2>is not that proven, but look it worked. A hero call,

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<v Speaker 2>by definition, is like if you get the answer right

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<v Speaker 2>for lots of money, then you have to get some

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<v Speaker 2>amount of some amount of credit right. A lot of

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<v Speaker 2>people didn't have the story of conference election. Our forecast

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<v Speaker 2>really had it. Literally had it more right Thom than

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<v Speaker 2>a coin flip. And so I'm going to give the

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<v Speaker 2>French whale THEO this award.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that that's a beautiful Uh, that's a beautiful answer.

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<v Speaker 1>THEO absolutely deserves Hero Call of the Year because we

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<v Speaker 1>even talked on the podcast We're like this is insane, like, right,

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<v Speaker 1>who is this whale? Like what is going on? And yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>he ended up making a shit ton of money. So

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<v Speaker 1>congratulations THEO, You've made our Hero call of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>Congrats, Yes and come on the show.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, we'd love to. We'd love to talk about how

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<v Speaker 1>you think about it. We Nate promises he will not

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<v Speaker 1>do his French accent for you. All right, So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a flip side of the hero call is when you

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<v Speaker 1>make the wrong decision, right, what was the worst fold

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<v Speaker 1>of the year, So a decision that you know, ended

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<v Speaker 1>up making people think, you know, what were you thinking?

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<v Speaker 1>How could you fold? There? I have one for this,

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<v Speaker 1>but yeah, you go ahead. It seems like you're excited

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<v Speaker 1>about this one.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry, is this so on brand? I have to

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<v Speaker 2>go with like this, she should have picked Shapiro thing.

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<v Speaker 2>I know, it's I know it's very politics heavy, but

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<v Speaker 2>like you have this very charismatic politician who's like literally

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<v Speaker 2>the popular governor of the most important spring state, which

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<v Speaker 2>by the way, turned out to be the tipping point state, Pennsylvania,

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<v Speaker 2>and she picked Tim Walls, who was kind of weird

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<v Speaker 2>in practice, and like it just seemed like a no brainer.

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<v Speaker 2>And I can try and dissect why the campaign did this,

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<v Speaker 2>but like that that's a decision that's kind of the

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<v Speaker 2>opposite of the hero call, right, It's like, yeah, the

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<v Speaker 2>obvious play. If you don't make the obvious play, right,

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<v Speaker 2>if you have this amazing semi bluffing opportunity, you have

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<v Speaker 2>a straight draw and a flush draw, and you have

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<v Speaker 2>full equity, and you choose to play the hand differently

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<v Speaker 2>in some weird way than it better worked out well

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<v Speaker 2>or if not, we have the right to criticize you.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's another award that comes a little bit later,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm going to reference it now because I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's very Germane and it's an award that we're borrowing

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<v Speaker 1>from the podcast The Town, So thank you very much

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<v Speaker 1>The Town. And it's the second Haters I was write award,

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<v Speaker 1>and that Nate, I'm going to give to one of

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<v Speaker 1>the decisions that you've been talking about all year, which

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<v Speaker 1>is she should have chosen.

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<v Speaker 2>Shapiro, should have chosen the Shapiro.

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<v Speaker 1>So I actually I went outside of politics sort of

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<v Speaker 1>and I said the worst fold was anyone who ended

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<v Speaker 1>up selling bitcoin at the beginning of the year, during

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<v Speaker 1>the bear market in January. Yeah, I think that that

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<v Speaker 1>was the worst fold, Like the people who were, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>like all in on bitcoin and then we're like, you

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<v Speaker 1>know what, I changed my mind, Like this is bad,

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<v Speaker 1>Like it's down to forty k Like shit, I bet

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<v Speaker 1>those people are not very happy right now. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think that and I don't think that it was. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that it was pretty obvious that they should not

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<v Speaker 1>be folding, right because you know how sicklical this market is.

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<v Speaker 1>You know how the bear bull cycles work, Like, if

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<v Speaker 1>you know what you're doing, you do not sell at

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<v Speaker 1>a bottom right there. But yeah, so that was that's

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<v Speaker 1>who I gave the the Worst fold of the Year

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<v Speaker 1>award two, so I think we can we can both

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<v Speaker 1>give out one.

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<v Speaker 2>Next up we have Cooler of the Year who had

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<v Speaker 2>a great hand but still lost.

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<v Speaker 1>So here I went outside of our usual purview, right,

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<v Speaker 1>we were normally kind of very politics business, some sports

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<v Speaker 1>heavy here decided to go to Hollywood, and I am

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<v Speaker 1>giving this award to Greta Gerwig, who was the writer

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<v Speaker 1>and director of Barbie, who just got completely shut out

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<v Speaker 1>at the Oscars, losing everything, losing even some nominations. She

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't even nominated for directing and she lost for writing.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that she was just like completely she

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<v Speaker 1>had a great hand. I think Barbie was a great

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<v Speaker 1>movie that did incredibly well, and for some reason she

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<v Speaker 1>was just like completely shut out of the Oscars this year.

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<v Speaker 1>That happens every year, you know, there's always someone, but

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<v Speaker 1>this one, I feel like, yeah, I felt a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit personal about it because I think, you know, she's female,

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<v Speaker 1>she's talented, she's great, And I actually did not like

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<v Speaker 1>Oppenheimer at all. I thought it was a horrible movie.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought it was really boring. I did not think

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<v Speaker 1>that it should have gotten all the awards it got,

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<v Speaker 1>so like I actually disagreed completely. This is from a

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<v Speaker 1>personal thing, but these are our awards, so they get

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<v Speaker 1>to be personal. That was my worst. That was my

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<v Speaker 1>cooler of the year. How about your name?

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe the New York Yankees son off your baseball fan,

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<v Speaker 2>Juan Soto, this amazing young outfielder who is kind of

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<v Speaker 2>like the Ted Williams of his era, signed with the

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<v Speaker 2>crosstown rival New York Mets for almost eight hundred million

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<v Speaker 2>dollars the Yankees offered him. So when I'm sixty million

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<v Speaker 2>after making their first World Series run since two thousand

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<v Speaker 2>and nine, I guess because apparently the Yankees were just cheap,

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<v Speaker 2>like George Costanza for the Yankees and Seinfeld where like

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<v Speaker 2>they wouldn't give one so to a suite. They apparently

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<v Speaker 2>like harassed his family and his driver, and so he

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<v Speaker 2>was like, fuck you, I'm actually going to Steve Cohen

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<v Speaker 2>and the New York Mets. Pretty rare to see a

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<v Speaker 2>crosstown free agency move like that.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, up next, Tilt of the Year. So what

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<v Speaker 1>was the most emotional decision of the year do you think?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I'm going back to politics here, politics. Yep,

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden deciding deciding Aid to run for reelection and

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<v Speaker 2>that he was indefatible. And then the then the pardon

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<v Speaker 2>of Fial Sun Hunter. Yeah, I've got.

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<v Speaker 1>The pardon as mine. So let's uh, let's unanimously give

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<v Speaker 1>the tilt of the year to Biden for making some

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<v Speaker 1>very emotional decisions. The deciding to run and the pardon

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<v Speaker 1>of Hunter. I think that that is absolutely you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that was tilt. The definition of tilt is letting emotions

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<v Speaker 1>into your decision process, right that you are no longer

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<v Speaker 1>evaluated things based on their expected value, based on their

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<v Speaker 1>actual kind of decision matrix. You are letting emotions that

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<v Speaker 1>are incidental and not integral to the decision into the decision.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's exactly what Joe Biden did.

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<v Speaker 2>Gto call of a year game theory optimalist call for

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<v Speaker 2>the most balanced, mathematically sound decision of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so this one I went outside of politics. I

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<v Speaker 1>went into the business side because this is so incredibly rare.

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted to kind of compliment Apple on abandoning their

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<v Speaker 1>fora into electric vehicles, because most companies, after spending billions

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<v Speaker 1>on something, don't have the foresight, the knowledge, kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the perspicacity to say, you know what, we're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to be competitive here, it's not working. We're just going

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<v Speaker 1>to write it off and move on. And the market's

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<v Speaker 1>rewarded Apple. Actually, even though some people were like this

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<v Speaker 1>is insane, like, right, how can you step away from

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<v Speaker 1>a multi billion dollar investment? So I think that that

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<v Speaker 1>was Actually that is what gto is right, is actually

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<v Speaker 1>being able to make those types of really really tough

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<v Speaker 1>decisions because you realize, you know what, it doesn't matter.

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<v Speaker 1>We already spent that money and we can't get it back.

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<v Speaker 1>And if we realize we're not competitive, like I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to fold my hand right and I'm gonna and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to walk away, and that's going to be okay.

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<v Speaker 1>And most companies are not capable of doing that. Most

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<v Speaker 1>CEOs are not capable of doing that. So I want

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<v Speaker 1>to reward Apple for a really good decision.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, maybe I give it a little shout out here

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<v Speaker 2>to Dan Campbell, the head coach of the Detroit Lions.

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<v Speaker 2>The Lions nearly made their first Super Bowl ever. Blew it.

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<v Speaker 2>That probably saved me. I don't want to even say

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<v Speaker 2>how much it is going to save me on it

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<v Speaker 2>last like a super Bowl trip. But Campbell's very aggressive

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<v Speaker 2>about going for it on fourth down. I'm making other

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<v Speaker 2>aggressive play calls which the GTO says is correct and

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<v Speaker 2>didn't work out. But they trust the system. And now

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<v Speaker 2>the Lions are the best team in the NFL so

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<v Speaker 2>far this year. So maybe I'll be spending my hard

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<v Speaker 2>earned dollars on a trip to New Orleans instead in

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<v Speaker 2>the Super Bowl.

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<v Speaker 1>Great, I'm on board with that, all right. How about

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<v Speaker 1>the Danny Kahneman Memorial Cognitive Bias of the Year Award.

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<v Speaker 1>What cognitive bias best explains twenty twenty four? So I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to say that the bias that best encapsulates twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four. And we're going back to politics. Here is

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<v Speaker 1>the sun cost fallacy, which is the inability to walk

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<v Speaker 1>away from sunk costs. And I think that the Biden campaign,

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<v Speaker 1>which is something that is going to you know, will

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<v Speaker 1>be feeling the repercussions of that for years to come

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<v Speaker 1>suffered from the sun cost fallacy. Right, the fact that oh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I am already I said, I'm running like

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to turn back on it. I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to keep putting good time and good money after bad.

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<v Speaker 1>After it was becoming more and more clear that he

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<v Speaker 1>shouldn't run again, that he should step away, and the

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<v Speaker 1>sun cost fallacy I think literally cost them the election

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<v Speaker 1>because they you know, he did not step away. We've

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<v Speaker 1>talked about this so many times, but you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that they didn't pivot, the fact that they kind

0:12:18.604 --> 0:12:22.484
<v Speaker 1>of didn't take the risk and take on the new

0:12:22.524 --> 0:12:25.204
<v Speaker 1>strategy and realize, you know what, we're only hurting ourselves

0:12:25.244 --> 0:12:28.084
<v Speaker 1>by continuing to put good time, good money, good energy

0:12:28.324 --> 0:12:31.444
<v Speaker 1>after bad. I think that that was the death the

0:12:31.524 --> 0:12:35.604
<v Speaker 1>death knell of this of this campaign. So to me,

0:12:35.684 --> 0:12:38.484
<v Speaker 1>the sun cost fallacy is the decision error that best

0:12:38.564 --> 0:12:39.564
<v Speaker 1>encapsulates this year.

0:12:41.204 --> 0:12:44.444
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, maybe I'll go with good old fashioned group think.

0:12:44.644 --> 0:12:48.844
<v Speaker 2>I suppose it's like also contained to the Democratic Party

0:12:48.884 --> 0:12:51.364
<v Speaker 2>where and inability and look, I think it's fundamentally and

0:12:51.524 --> 0:12:54.204
<v Speaker 2>kind of writing an article about this now, I think

0:12:54.204 --> 0:12:57.604
<v Speaker 2>it's kind of amazing, But Democrats adopt this velosophy they

0:12:57.644 --> 0:12:59.804
<v Speaker 2>kind of claim to be working on behalf of like

0:12:59.884 --> 0:13:03.684
<v Speaker 2>all these oppressed minorities, and then all the oppressed minorities

0:13:03.724 --> 0:13:05.924
<v Speaker 2>shift a long way toward Trump. And I think what

0:13:05.964 --> 0:13:10.964
<v Speaker 2>that is is that you actually look views among other elites,

0:13:10.964 --> 0:13:14.084
<v Speaker 2>and Democrats have kind of lost touch with with how

0:13:14.124 --> 0:13:16.724
<v Speaker 2>people outside their group think and what messages are appealing

0:13:16.764 --> 0:13:20.244
<v Speaker 2>and which aren't. And so I we you know, I

0:13:20.244 --> 0:13:22.124
<v Speaker 2>don't want to deter this too much, but I'll kind

0:13:22.124 --> 0:13:24.804
<v Speaker 2>of broadly give it to the Democratic Party. And how

0:13:25.204 --> 0:13:28.844
<v Speaker 2>capture among all the you know, cognitive elites actually can

0:13:28.844 --> 0:13:32.404
<v Speaker 2>be a problem in some ways makes sense. Here's a

0:13:32.404 --> 0:13:35.484
<v Speaker 2>fun one Djen of the Year. This is one of

0:13:35.484 --> 0:13:37.564
<v Speaker 2>the most prestigious awards.

0:13:37.844 --> 0:13:43.684
<v Speaker 1>It is, well, I'm giving it to Epay Musuhara millions.

0:13:43.964 --> 0:13:46.404
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it doesn't get more DJN.

0:13:46.564 --> 0:13:49.644
<v Speaker 2>Can we call it the Epay Musahara Memorial Djen Award

0:13:49.644 --> 0:13:50.484
<v Speaker 2>of the Year in the future.

0:13:50.604 --> 0:13:53.204
<v Speaker 1>I think in future years, I think that's what we

0:13:53.284 --> 0:13:56.804
<v Speaker 1>need to call it. And for people obviously who who

0:13:57.244 --> 0:14:02.004
<v Speaker 1>can't immediately put that name to a face. That was

0:14:02.124 --> 0:14:08.404
<v Speaker 1>Otani's interpreter who pleaded guilty to making at least seventeen

0:14:08.444 --> 0:14:12.204
<v Speaker 1>million dollars worth of sports bets gone wrong and using

0:14:12.604 --> 0:14:15.284
<v Speaker 1>Otani's accounts to cover those.

0:14:15.844 --> 0:14:17.084
<v Speaker 2>And the Knit of the Year. Do you have a

0:14:17.084 --> 0:14:20.964
<v Speaker 2>good one for this? Harris okaymal Hair, Yeah, these are two.

0:14:20.964 --> 0:14:22.604
<v Speaker 2>The Kamala Harris memorial.

0:14:23.444 --> 0:14:24.084
<v Speaker 1>Yes, I got that.

0:14:25.364 --> 0:14:30.164
<v Speaker 2>She refused to distance herself from Biden, even though they

0:14:30.164 --> 0:14:33.044
<v Speaker 2>didn't campaign on Biden's agenda either. They just said, oh, well,

0:14:33.124 --> 0:14:36.604
<v Speaker 2>let's help people ignore this and and yeah, the risk

0:14:36.644 --> 0:14:38.204
<v Speaker 2>a version of this campaign. And by the way, how

0:14:38.244 --> 0:14:41.484
<v Speaker 2>much is this her versus her campaign managers? I'm not sure,

0:14:41.604 --> 0:14:44.684
<v Speaker 2>but like that's the.

0:14:44.124 --> 0:14:46.484
<v Speaker 1>Campaign right at the end of the day, it's her campaign,

0:14:46.564 --> 0:14:48.844
<v Speaker 1>and if she disagrees with her campaign manager, she needs

0:14:48.924 --> 0:14:50.444
<v Speaker 1>to be like, no, fuck this, I'm not going to

0:14:50.484 --> 0:14:51.804
<v Speaker 1>be in it. So at the end of the day,

0:14:51.804 --> 0:14:52.524
<v Speaker 1>it's on her, just.

0:14:52.484 --> 0:14:56.524
<v Speaker 2>Like the campaign agrees with her. They're like, yo, yo,

0:14:57.164 --> 0:15:01.564
<v Speaker 2>you got you're shitting gear Kamala exactly exactly.

0:15:02.364 --> 0:15:04.644
<v Speaker 1>So it seems like you agree with my Djena Knit

0:15:04.724 --> 0:15:05.444
<v Speaker 1>of the Year picks.

0:15:05.604 --> 0:15:07.084
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, these are pretty easy ones.

0:15:07.124 --> 0:15:07.604
<v Speaker 1>I think.

0:15:09.404 --> 0:15:12.044
<v Speaker 2>The Risky Business bracelet. Who had the better which of

0:15:12.084 --> 0:15:13.724
<v Speaker 2>the two hosts? This is an easy one. They're only

0:15:13.724 --> 0:15:16.644
<v Speaker 2>two answers had the better poker, had the better poker year.

0:15:18.004 --> 0:15:19.644
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, n it. Are you up or down?

0:15:21.044 --> 0:15:24.444
<v Speaker 2>I have I'm definitely down in tournaments, and then I

0:15:24.484 --> 0:15:26.684
<v Speaker 2>have a quite good year in cash, and so I

0:15:26.684 --> 0:15:27.604
<v Speaker 2>don't actually know.

0:15:27.964 --> 0:15:30.844
<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, the bracelet, I think we should do tournaments, right,

0:15:30.844 --> 0:15:31.964
<v Speaker 1>since bracelets.

0:15:31.564 --> 0:15:35.084
<v Speaker 2>Are Yeah, it's very it's very fiable, right, Yeah, it's verifiable.

0:15:35.404 --> 0:15:37.484
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So I'm up in tournaments, So I guess I

0:15:37.484 --> 0:15:39.364
<v Speaker 1>get the bracelet for this year.

0:15:40.044 --> 0:15:41.884
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm down a fair bit and I'll need to

0:15:41.924 --> 0:15:43.364
<v Speaker 2>have a good series here at the Wind, but the

0:15:43.404 --> 0:15:45.044
<v Speaker 2>cash is gone. I'm trying to think of myself as

0:15:45.084 --> 0:15:48.004
<v Speaker 2>more of a cash players some ways.

0:15:48.124 --> 0:15:51.284
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's wonderful, and I look forward to seeing you

0:15:51.364 --> 0:15:54.924
<v Speaker 1>on some big cash streams. And we can change this

0:15:55.004 --> 0:15:58.124
<v Speaker 1>from the bracelet awards to something else so that we

0:15:58.164 --> 0:16:02.364
<v Speaker 1>can just say poker prowess, whether cash or tournaments. I

0:16:02.404 --> 0:16:08.244
<v Speaker 1>don't know. So now we've got two awards that are

0:16:09.124 --> 0:16:14.004
<v Speaker 1>being taken from another podcast, The Town, which gives awards

0:16:14.044 --> 0:16:15.804
<v Speaker 1>the Mia Cool Pie I Was Wrong Award and the

0:16:15.844 --> 0:16:19.404
<v Speaker 1>second Haters I Was Right Award. So these are for

0:16:19.804 --> 0:16:22.764
<v Speaker 1>I think personal decisions, you know, personal things that we've done.

0:16:22.804 --> 0:16:24.684
<v Speaker 1>This is where I said that you should be the

0:16:24.724 --> 0:16:26.844
<v Speaker 1>second haters. I was right. I didn't have one for me,

0:16:26.964 --> 0:16:28.884
<v Speaker 1>but I had it for you, which was that she

0:16:28.924 --> 0:16:32.324
<v Speaker 1>should have gone for Shapiro. I think that that's I

0:16:32.404 --> 0:16:37.124
<v Speaker 1>think that you get that award, and uh, the Mia

0:16:37.164 --> 0:16:40.124
<v Speaker 1>Coolpie was Wrong award. I actually so, I think that

0:16:40.324 --> 0:16:43.644
<v Speaker 1>I was wrong when we had talked on the podcast

0:16:43.644 --> 0:16:46.284
<v Speaker 1>about kind of how important crypto was to the election,

0:16:46.444 --> 0:16:48.724
<v Speaker 1>and I'm like, it's a tiny percentage, it doesn't really matter.

0:16:48.964 --> 0:16:51.124
<v Speaker 1>I actually think that it ended up mattering a lot

0:16:51.204 --> 0:16:54.484
<v Speaker 1>more than I thought it would. And you know, and

0:16:54.644 --> 0:16:58.084
<v Speaker 1>especially kind of given the amount of money that was

0:16:58.124 --> 0:17:01.324
<v Speaker 1>donated given kind of some people who I think came

0:17:01.364 --> 0:17:04.924
<v Speaker 1>out and became single issue voters for Trump because of

0:17:04.964 --> 0:17:07.284
<v Speaker 1>his take on crypto. I actually think I was a

0:17:07.324 --> 0:17:09.604
<v Speaker 1>little bit wrong on that. I think I underestimate at

0:17:09.644 --> 0:17:10.484
<v Speaker 1>the cryptov.

0:17:10.644 --> 0:17:16.084
<v Speaker 2>I'll give myself an award for nearly betting on with

0:17:16.204 --> 0:17:20.284
<v Speaker 2>Keith for boy who was a venture capitalist on the

0:17:20.364 --> 0:17:23.444
<v Speaker 2>ulcome in Florida, where Keith claimed he lives in Miami

0:17:23.524 --> 0:17:27.644
<v Speaker 2>now very proudly so that Kamala Harris would lose Florida

0:17:27.724 --> 0:17:30.324
<v Speaker 2>by eight points or more, and at the time she

0:17:30.444 --> 0:17:34.684
<v Speaker 2>was down only three points in the polling average, got

0:17:34.964 --> 0:17:36.764
<v Speaker 2>in a spat on Twitter and offered to bet one

0:17:36.844 --> 0:17:40.684
<v Speaker 2>hundred k, and actually kind of tried to facilitate this

0:17:40.764 --> 0:17:44.724
<v Speaker 2>and sent an email to a mutual friend saying, Hey, Keith,

0:17:44.764 --> 0:17:47.964
<v Speaker 2>if you want negotiate terms, here's person why who can

0:17:48.724 --> 0:17:51.884
<v Speaker 2>confirm this? And he didn't respond for four days, right,

0:17:51.924 --> 0:17:54.044
<v Speaker 2>and then the some morning a New York Times pull

0:17:54.044 --> 0:17:57.364
<v Speaker 2>comes out and has Harris down like thirteen or fifteen

0:17:57.404 --> 0:17:59.404
<v Speaker 2>points in Florida, and I'm like, fuck this. You know

0:18:00.004 --> 0:18:01.804
<v Speaker 2>you don't have a free option to make this bet whenever,

0:18:01.924 --> 0:18:05.524
<v Speaker 2>So the offer is rescinded, which he agreed it was

0:18:05.564 --> 0:18:08.964
<v Speaker 2>too late to accept the bet, certainly not recognizing the

0:18:09.004 --> 0:18:12.724
<v Speaker 2>complete collapse the Democratic Party in Florida and being lucky

0:18:12.724 --> 0:18:13.924
<v Speaker 2>to be able to pull out of that bet.

0:18:14.564 --> 0:18:16.924
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think I think that's a good one. And

0:18:17.244 --> 0:18:18.924
<v Speaker 1>the second haters I was right? Do you like my

0:18:19.404 --> 0:18:19.924
<v Speaker 1>choice for that?

0:18:20.844 --> 0:18:22.724
<v Speaker 2>I have a lot, I mean, all the Biden related stuff,

0:18:22.724 --> 0:18:23.804
<v Speaker 2>like actually feel.

0:18:23.564 --> 0:18:24.924
<v Speaker 1>Like I was right about everything.

0:18:24.924 --> 0:18:28.804
<v Speaker 2>It hurts, I know, the Biden debate stuff where I'm like,

0:18:28.844 --> 0:18:31.804
<v Speaker 2>actually the debate might go so bad, yeah, that he'll

0:18:31.804 --> 0:18:33.644
<v Speaker 2>have to pull out, Like people, that was kind of crazy, right,

0:18:33.644 --> 0:18:35.644
<v Speaker 2>I would not have given like more than like a

0:18:35.684 --> 0:18:37.484
<v Speaker 2>fifteen percent probability of that, but I kind of put

0:18:37.484 --> 0:18:39.444
<v Speaker 2>myself out there with at least raising his chance and

0:18:39.484 --> 0:18:42.084
<v Speaker 2>so all the Biden stuff, Yeah, I felt like, was my.

0:18:42.244 --> 0:18:44.004
<v Speaker 1>You definitely put yourself out there, and I think and

0:18:44.044 --> 0:18:46.164
<v Speaker 1>I think you ended up being right about a lot

0:18:46.204 --> 0:18:50.364
<v Speaker 1>of it. So yes, I'm there for it all. Right. Now,

0:18:50.364 --> 0:18:53.644
<v Speaker 1>We're going to have two individual awards for us to

0:18:53.684 --> 0:18:56.764
<v Speaker 1>give out, So mine is the Maria Kanakova Award for

0:18:56.804 --> 0:19:01.124
<v Speaker 1>the Biggest bluff of the Year, and I am gonna

0:19:01.204 --> 0:19:02.644
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to get a lot of people mad for

0:19:02.684 --> 0:19:05.644
<v Speaker 1>this one, but I'm giving it to Sam Altman and

0:19:05.764 --> 0:19:10.564
<v Speaker 1>open Ai for bluffing about the mission and the non

0:19:10.564 --> 0:19:14.844
<v Speaker 1>profit nature of open Ai and getting you know, saying

0:19:15.124 --> 0:19:17.844
<v Speaker 1>how it was all about, you know, just just being

0:19:18.244 --> 0:19:20.844
<v Speaker 1>for the good of the world and then raising money

0:19:20.884 --> 0:19:22.964
<v Speaker 1>and saying, actually we're going to be for profit and

0:19:23.964 --> 0:19:26.684
<v Speaker 1>all of this stuff that like, obviously it was going

0:19:26.764 --> 0:19:29.244
<v Speaker 1>to be a business and obviously like this is where

0:19:29.244 --> 0:19:31.404
<v Speaker 1>it was heading. But I think a lot of people

0:19:31.444 --> 0:19:34.724
<v Speaker 1>believed his initial bluff, and this is something that's going

0:19:34.764 --> 0:19:37.604
<v Speaker 1>to be really important and open. Ai is you know

0:19:37.644 --> 0:19:40.204
<v Speaker 1>how Sam goes about it. I think this is an

0:19:40.244 --> 0:19:43.884
<v Speaker 1>important thing to track closely. So I think it's good

0:19:44.164 --> 0:19:46.244
<v Speaker 1>to realize that this is someone who is incredibly good

0:19:46.284 --> 0:19:49.844
<v Speaker 1>at bluffing, incredibly credible at bluffing, and bluffs a lot.

0:19:50.004 --> 0:19:52.324
<v Speaker 2>I agree, I think. No, I think I think that's

0:19:52.324 --> 0:19:54.844
<v Speaker 2>a great pick. Maria, thank you. I mean he is.

0:19:54.884 --> 0:19:56.364
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if. I don't know if he's convincing

0:19:56.364 --> 0:19:59.844
<v Speaker 2>everyone necessarily, but but but he knows how to see

0:19:59.884 --> 0:20:01.404
<v Speaker 2>their bluff through. I'll say that much.

0:20:01.524 --> 0:20:02.124
<v Speaker 1>Yes, he does.

0:20:04.044 --> 0:20:07.044
<v Speaker 2>The Nate Silver Award for Raverian of the Year. The Raverian,

0:20:07.084 --> 0:20:08.844
<v Speaker 2>of course a term from my book for this group

0:20:08.924 --> 0:20:13.044
<v Speaker 2>of I don't know the general kambling types. I think

0:20:13.164 --> 0:20:17.604
<v Speaker 2>you have to give it to our boy, Elon. I

0:20:17.684 --> 0:20:21.244
<v Speaker 2>just think you have to. He made this very big

0:20:21.444 --> 0:20:23.284
<v Speaker 2>bet where he was kind of in more of a

0:20:23.324 --> 0:20:26.804
<v Speaker 2>blue linen cultural space and has obviously gotten like red

0:20:26.804 --> 0:20:31.164
<v Speaker 2>pilled in various ways. But look, he bet two hundred

0:20:31.204 --> 0:20:33.724
<v Speaker 2>and fifty thousand, or people are still counting Abe's three hundred.

0:20:33.844 --> 0:20:36.644
<v Speaker 2>Excuse me, he bet like several hundred million dollars of

0:20:36.684 --> 0:20:39.364
<v Speaker 2>his own money. On Trump went very all in on

0:20:39.404 --> 0:20:43.124
<v Speaker 2>this movement and now has been rewarded with heading a

0:20:43.164 --> 0:20:46.524
<v Speaker 2>government or a quasi governmental agency named DOGE and getting

0:20:46.524 --> 0:20:49.684
<v Speaker 2>this guy he wanted elected. You know, it's a little

0:20:49.684 --> 0:20:51.484
<v Speaker 2>bit like this thing we said before, where if you

0:20:51.604 --> 0:20:54.684
<v Speaker 2>kind of make that hero call and not like the

0:20:54.684 --> 0:20:57.004
<v Speaker 2>odds were that bad. I mean, Biden was evidently in

0:20:57.004 --> 0:20:59.884
<v Speaker 2>trouble very early on. But I think you have to

0:20:59.964 --> 0:21:02.844
<v Speaker 2>like and again, I Elon is not my favorite representative

0:21:03.364 --> 0:21:05.684
<v Speaker 2>of the river right, even if you were such a conservatives.

0:21:06.284 --> 0:21:09.804
<v Speaker 2>You know, someone like Jay Bonicharia, who was an early

0:21:10.124 --> 0:21:12.724
<v Speaker 2>Stanford professor who was skeptical from the COVID lockdown stuff,

0:21:13.084 --> 0:21:14.964
<v Speaker 2>now named director of the n I h like he

0:21:15.084 --> 0:21:18.004
<v Speaker 2>is someone who I would personally like rather get a

0:21:18.044 --> 0:21:21.044
<v Speaker 2>beer with or something. But Elon's the obvious choice. I'm

0:21:21.044 --> 0:21:22.724
<v Speaker 2>not going to deny him his good year.

0:21:24.044 --> 0:21:26.524
<v Speaker 1>Well, this was this was a lot of fun. I like,

0:21:26.644 --> 0:21:30.164
<v Speaker 1>I like the riskies, and I like our renaming of

0:21:30.204 --> 0:21:31.564
<v Speaker 1>some of the awards.

0:21:31.124 --> 0:21:34.164
<v Speaker 2>To the award.

0:21:34.964 --> 0:21:38.364
<v Speaker 1>UH pay for Djon UH Forever More.

0:21:38.844 --> 0:21:40.324
<v Speaker 2>We'll be back in just a minute to talk a

0:21:40.324 --> 0:21:41.964
<v Speaker 2>little bit about how the poker is going so far

0:21:42.044 --> 0:21:43.964
<v Speaker 2>and answer a listener question, M.

0:21:46.844 --> 0:22:03.124
<v Speaker 1>M Nate, you are beautifully backlit by the Lovely Win Hotel.

0:22:04.124 --> 0:22:06.844
<v Speaker 1>So we are both in Las Vegas for the WPT.

0:22:07.684 --> 0:22:10.484
<v Speaker 1>I've been playing a few more events than you. You

0:22:10.604 --> 0:22:15.404
<v Speaker 1>came in and went straight into the three K, three

0:22:15.484 --> 0:22:19.724
<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars one day event yesterday. How did that go good?

0:22:19.724 --> 0:22:22.644
<v Speaker 2>I finished thirteenth place for ten thousand bucks or nine

0:22:23.044 --> 0:22:25.284
<v Speaker 2>nine hundred something. I think technically, I know for tax

0:22:25.324 --> 0:22:28.564
<v Speaker 2>reasons are what they do it that way? Yeah, always

0:22:28.564 --> 0:22:32.284
<v Speaker 2>great to start out with with the decent sized cash.

0:22:32.284 --> 0:22:34.764
<v Speaker 2>In your first event, it was a very turbo event.

0:22:34.884 --> 0:22:37.044
<v Speaker 2>If our listeners don't know what that means, it means

0:22:37.084 --> 0:22:40.004
<v Speaker 2>that the blinds increased very fast. They start the event

0:22:40.044 --> 0:22:41.564
<v Speaker 2>at one they're trying to get it wrapped up by

0:22:42.924 --> 0:22:45.124
<v Speaker 2>two am, and with like two hundred players or whatever,

0:22:45.164 --> 0:22:46.844
<v Speaker 2>two hundred and fifty, I forget what it was. Then

0:22:46.884 --> 0:22:49.884
<v Speaker 2>that means you all of a sudden are playing for

0:22:50.124 --> 0:22:52.444
<v Speaker 2>very high stakes relatively amount of ships that you have,

0:22:52.764 --> 0:22:57.324
<v Speaker 2>and so requires hitting some big hands early and then

0:22:57.884 --> 0:23:01.044
<v Speaker 2>being aggressive and winning some coin flips. Being aware of

0:23:01.084 --> 0:23:05.084
<v Speaker 2>how the dynamics change in terms of we've talked about

0:23:05.244 --> 0:23:11.004
<v Speaker 2>ICM on this show before with the independence goals, independent model,

0:23:11.604 --> 0:23:15.284
<v Speaker 2>the goals to win money if you have it, not

0:23:15.284 --> 0:23:18.444
<v Speaker 2>not just maximize your first place chances, right, And so

0:23:19.364 --> 0:23:21.124
<v Speaker 2>I had to be I had a medium sized stack,

0:23:21.204 --> 0:23:22.964
<v Speaker 2>and I had to be a little bit cautious for

0:23:23.004 --> 0:23:25.484
<v Speaker 2>parts of the tournament, which is kind of which is

0:23:25.524 --> 0:23:28.564
<v Speaker 2>kind of no fun. But that's that's you know, I'm

0:23:28.604 --> 0:23:30.924
<v Speaker 2>plan booker to win money, not to not to make

0:23:30.964 --> 0:23:34.204
<v Speaker 2>friends and influence people. Well maybe that too. So we

0:23:34.204 --> 0:23:36.604
<v Speaker 2>were a little bit idiot times. I'm wound up getting

0:23:36.684 --> 0:23:38.444
<v Speaker 2>quite a few pay jumps to thirteenth place.

0:23:39.044 --> 0:23:41.604
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well that's important, especially because you were not in

0:23:41.684 --> 0:23:43.924
<v Speaker 1>for one bullet. You were in for multiple bullets, right,

0:23:43.964 --> 0:23:44.964
<v Speaker 1>So you needed Maria.

0:23:45.004 --> 0:23:46.924
<v Speaker 2>You have to you know, there's no record of that

0:23:47.044 --> 0:23:51.724
<v Speaker 2>on Handed Mob. Yeah all right, two bullets. I came in.

0:23:51.804 --> 0:23:55.324
<v Speaker 2>I came in aggressively, as one tends to do on

0:23:55.324 --> 0:23:57.124
<v Speaker 2>their first day in Las Vegas. Made it a big.

0:23:58.684 --> 0:24:00.804
<v Speaker 1>People to know that you were not in it. Your

0:24:00.804 --> 0:24:04.164
<v Speaker 1>first bullet was bluffed off, So so you were you

0:24:04.444 --> 0:24:06.604
<v Speaker 1>You put in a good show of not being in

0:24:06.684 --> 0:24:08.244
<v Speaker 1>it first, and then you did it.

0:24:08.284 --> 0:24:10.084
<v Speaker 2>I do think for like these one day. I mean,

0:24:10.324 --> 0:24:13.684
<v Speaker 2>I think it is worthwhile to like look a little

0:24:13.684 --> 0:24:16.484
<v Speaker 2>bit at like your life philosophy, right, and like what

0:24:16.524 --> 0:24:19.684
<v Speaker 2>your alternatives are, Like I don't want to like if

0:24:19.724 --> 0:24:21.964
<v Speaker 2>I bust out of the tournament before the dinner break,

0:24:22.004 --> 0:24:24.044
<v Speaker 2>then my partner's in town. You're in town, can go

0:24:24.044 --> 0:24:26.124
<v Speaker 2>get like a nice dinner somewhere and have relaxed night

0:24:26.124 --> 0:24:28.524
<v Speaker 2>in Vegas, and so like, I think there is something

0:24:28.564 --> 0:24:31.724
<v Speaker 2>where like increasing your variants a little bit in the

0:24:31.764 --> 0:24:34.244
<v Speaker 2>early stage is where you get a big stack or

0:24:34.284 --> 0:24:37.044
<v Speaker 2>not is a good life strategy. And also in this

0:24:37.084 --> 0:24:39.324
<v Speaker 2>tournament you kind of need a big stack or else

0:24:39.364 --> 0:24:41.844
<v Speaker 2>you're just or else you're just. I mean, the blinds

0:24:41.844 --> 0:24:44.284
<v Speaker 2>increase so fast that you're kind of have to play

0:24:44.364 --> 0:24:46.244
<v Speaker 2>very defensively or get very lucky. And so I think

0:24:46.244 --> 0:24:48.684
<v Speaker 2>it's actually worth in like these one day events. It's

0:24:48.724 --> 0:24:51.084
<v Speaker 2>not a slow structure. It's worth kind of saying I'm

0:24:51.084 --> 0:24:53.124
<v Speaker 2>gonna ether have a big stack, or go get some

0:24:53.804 --> 0:24:55.004
<v Speaker 2>go to a show or something funny.

0:24:55.124 --> 0:24:57.604
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, go big or go home. I totally get it.

0:24:57.764 --> 0:25:00.844
<v Speaker 1>But in all transparency, so the series has not started

0:25:00.884 --> 0:25:04.284
<v Speaker 1>off well for me. I have played so far three events.

0:25:04.324 --> 0:25:08.204
<v Speaker 1>So I played the opening eight hundred dollars event, which

0:25:08.284 --> 0:25:11.484
<v Speaker 1>was actually a fourth thousand dollar event for me, so

0:25:11.604 --> 0:25:14.084
<v Speaker 1>people can do the math in terms of re entries,

0:25:14.364 --> 0:25:17.124
<v Speaker 1>I did not cash. Then I played the Mystery Bounty,

0:25:17.164 --> 0:25:20.164
<v Speaker 1>which is a sixteen hundred dollar event, again full transparency,

0:25:20.324 --> 0:25:22.124
<v Speaker 1>it was only it was only a thirty two hundred

0:25:22.164 --> 0:25:24.164
<v Speaker 1>dollar event for me. So that one I managed to

0:25:24.444 --> 0:25:27.804
<v Speaker 1>sneak by with only two bullets and I bubbled bubbling

0:25:27.804 --> 0:25:30.804
<v Speaker 1>once again for people who don't know, is I busted

0:25:30.924 --> 0:25:34.404
<v Speaker 1>very very late in the night, basically when we were

0:25:34.444 --> 0:25:37.164
<v Speaker 1>about to reach day two and the money. So that

0:25:37.284 --> 0:25:40.404
<v Speaker 1>was not fun, and that was you know, that was

0:25:40.484 --> 0:25:43.444
<v Speaker 1>just a cooler hand. And I started the Prime, which

0:25:43.484 --> 0:25:47.924
<v Speaker 1>is the eleven hundred dollar event yesterday, and I ended

0:25:47.964 --> 0:25:50.804
<v Speaker 1>up busting. You can only rebuy once a day, so

0:25:50.844 --> 0:25:53.124
<v Speaker 1>i busted both of my bullets yesterday and I'm going

0:25:53.164 --> 0:25:56.284
<v Speaker 1>to play again today. As soon as we finish recording

0:25:56.364 --> 0:25:58.804
<v Speaker 1>our podcast, I'll make my way to the wind to

0:25:58.844 --> 0:26:01.844
<v Speaker 1>see unit where we can both try to find a

0:26:01.844 --> 0:26:02.244
<v Speaker 1>bit bag.

0:26:02.324 --> 0:26:03.524
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to get a lot. I'm going to come

0:26:03.524 --> 0:26:06.964
<v Speaker 2>in after lunch. And I met at Looser.

0:26:07.044 --> 0:26:09.364
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, I get it. Get a little lunch, but there's.

0:26:09.244 --> 0:26:12.684
<v Speaker 2>Lots of stuff. There's like a the main K tent.

0:26:12.844 --> 0:26:14.644
<v Speaker 2>The main ten K event starts next week.

0:26:14.684 --> 0:26:16.924
<v Speaker 1>I guess this weekend, this coming weekend.

0:26:16.964 --> 0:26:20.684
<v Speaker 2>This weekend, there is a free roll for.

0:26:21.564 --> 0:26:23.644
<v Speaker 1>I did not get a seat into the free roll, Nate,

0:26:24.324 --> 0:26:24.604
<v Speaker 1>did you?

0:26:26.004 --> 0:26:26.804
<v Speaker 2>Perhaps?

0:26:27.764 --> 0:26:33.964
<v Speaker 1>Nay? Yes, I did not win a seat into the

0:26:33.964 --> 0:26:37.124
<v Speaker 1>free roll, and I'm not running well this series. So

0:26:37.164 --> 0:26:40.404
<v Speaker 1>they have if you enter, they have this promotion where

0:26:40.484 --> 0:26:45.004
<v Speaker 1>you join you know, Club WPT Gold or whatever kind

0:26:45.004 --> 0:26:48.164
<v Speaker 1>of the same thing that the free roll is advertising,

0:26:48.364 --> 0:26:51.244
<v Speaker 1>and then you get to draw from all of these

0:26:51.244 --> 0:26:54.884
<v Speaker 1>possible prizes, including a McLaren you know, two hundred and

0:26:54.884 --> 0:26:58.764
<v Speaker 1>fifty thousand dollars car, and all of these other amazing prizes,

0:26:58.804 --> 0:27:02.084
<v Speaker 1>including entry to the free roll. I drew a fucking hat, Nate,

0:27:03.164 --> 0:27:07.084
<v Speaker 1>A hat, yeah, And I had to be like, I'm sorry,

0:27:07.164 --> 0:27:08.044
<v Speaker 1>you can keep the hat.

0:27:08.204 --> 0:27:12.364
<v Speaker 2>I can't take I bought. The hats are kind of

0:27:12.404 --> 0:27:14.404
<v Speaker 2>expensive there. It costs like forty bucks or something.

0:27:14.924 --> 0:27:16.684
<v Speaker 1>Oh, Nate, I should have given you the hat. I

0:27:16.684 --> 0:27:17.604
<v Speaker 1>should have taken the hat.

0:27:17.644 --> 0:27:18.244
<v Speaker 2>I didn't know.

0:27:18.644 --> 0:27:21.084
<v Speaker 1>I didn't know. I turned my nose up at the hat.

0:27:21.204 --> 0:27:23.964
<v Speaker 1>I was like, I got the lowest value price oh,

0:27:24.044 --> 0:27:26.444
<v Speaker 1>there were also cash prizes. You could go into this cash.

0:27:26.724 --> 0:27:29.804
<v Speaker 1>There were so many good prizes, and I drew the hat.

0:27:30.204 --> 0:27:32.604
<v Speaker 1>I am not running well this tournament series so far,

0:27:33.324 --> 0:27:38.244
<v Speaker 1>you know, down almost ten thousand dollars and a hat.

0:27:38.404 --> 0:27:41.684
<v Speaker 2>Turn out around, let's turn around. I you know it happens.

0:27:41.724 --> 0:27:43.684
<v Speaker 2>I look my second leg of the World Series this year,

0:27:45.084 --> 0:27:46.564
<v Speaker 2>it's all kind of a blur. There was so much

0:27:46.604 --> 0:27:50.364
<v Speaker 2>politics news, but just brick everything right, So, oh, I

0:27:50.364 --> 0:27:52.924
<v Speaker 2>forget what it was over twelve or thirteen or something probably,

0:27:53.004 --> 0:27:55.684
<v Speaker 2>And that's very normal. The chances of that, if you

0:27:55.684 --> 0:27:58.724
<v Speaker 2>do the math, they're like quite a bit higher than

0:27:58.764 --> 0:28:02.284
<v Speaker 2>you might expect or want intuitively.

0:28:02.124 --> 0:28:04.804
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, And I've had a very good year, so I'm

0:28:04.844 --> 0:28:07.004
<v Speaker 1>not complaining. I just want people to realize that there

0:28:07.044 --> 0:28:08.524
<v Speaker 1>is a lot of variance in this game. You know,

0:28:08.644 --> 0:28:10.564
<v Speaker 1>just like in life, you go through you go through

0:28:10.604 --> 0:28:13.324
<v Speaker 1>these periods where you know, things just don't come together,

0:28:13.404 --> 0:28:15.884
<v Speaker 1>and it's hard to forget that. It's hard to remember

0:28:15.924 --> 0:28:17.924
<v Speaker 1>that when things are coming together right, like when you're

0:28:17.964 --> 0:28:20.444
<v Speaker 1>running well, when you're cash and you're like, oh, this

0:28:20.524 --> 0:28:23.884
<v Speaker 1>is easy. Poker's easy. Life is great, And I think

0:28:23.884 --> 0:28:25.924
<v Speaker 1>that's true of life in general. Right, when things are

0:28:25.924 --> 0:28:27.924
<v Speaker 1>going well, you're like, yeah, this is good, this is

0:28:27.924 --> 0:28:30.804
<v Speaker 1>how life should be. But you do go through periods

0:28:30.844 --> 0:28:33.044
<v Speaker 1>when should hits the fan, when things do not go

0:28:33.124 --> 0:28:36.004
<v Speaker 1>as well as planned. But I hope I turn it

0:28:36.044 --> 0:28:38.524
<v Speaker 1>around and that some of your three k you know,

0:28:38.604 --> 0:28:41.844
<v Speaker 1>success rumps off on me so that I do not

0:28:42.004 --> 0:28:45.764
<v Speaker 1>have to then go and play the prime yet again,

0:28:46.684 --> 0:28:50.604
<v Speaker 1>because this is a one K event that's very worth

0:28:50.684 --> 0:28:53.804
<v Speaker 1>playing the maximount of times since it's probably the largest

0:28:53.804 --> 0:28:56.684
<v Speaker 1>one K event of the year. So it's exciting. It's

0:28:56.724 --> 0:28:59.084
<v Speaker 1>an exciting series. I'm looking forward to the rest and

0:28:59.084 --> 0:29:02.004
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking forward to running a little bit better, and

0:29:02.084 --> 0:29:05.444
<v Speaker 1>I hope both of us do. Let's take a break

0:29:05.484 --> 0:29:15.444
<v Speaker 1>and then let's take a listener question and talk about bilingualism.

0:29:24.004 --> 0:29:28.804
<v Speaker 1>We had a listener named Ed who had a question

0:29:29.284 --> 0:29:34.004
<v Speaker 1>about language learning. So should you learn a second language

0:29:34.124 --> 0:29:39.444
<v Speaker 1>or not? And he maintains that as a primary English speaker,

0:29:39.684 --> 0:29:43.324
<v Speaker 1>the ev for learning a second language is hugely negative,

0:29:43.724 --> 0:29:46.844
<v Speaker 1>that it's a time suck. English is common. There's no

0:29:47.044 --> 0:29:50.244
<v Speaker 1>obvious second language to learn that is better than any others,

0:29:51.644 --> 0:29:54.404
<v Speaker 1>you know. He talks about Spanish, Amandarin, that they're both

0:29:54.404 --> 0:29:57.804
<v Speaker 1>commonly spoken, but how often will he go to a

0:29:57.844 --> 0:30:01.164
<v Speaker 1>place where he'll only have that and no one to

0:30:01.204 --> 0:30:06.004
<v Speaker 1>broker communications, doubly so with internet translation. So yeah, he

0:30:06.084 --> 0:30:08.804
<v Speaker 1>just wants to know, is are there situations that make

0:30:08.844 --> 0:30:12.444
<v Speaker 1>it marginally positive for a not for a native English speaker,

0:30:12.444 --> 0:30:15.284
<v Speaker 1>assuming you're not living with bilingual parents and getting your

0:30:15.284 --> 0:30:16.444
<v Speaker 1>second language as a free.

0:30:16.404 --> 0:30:18.564
<v Speaker 2>What are your what are your second language status is?

0:30:18.564 --> 0:30:23.764
<v Speaker 1>Maria, Russian, French, Spanish, Italian and Persian.

0:30:24.684 --> 0:30:28.564
<v Speaker 2>Jeez, okay, so you clearly you clearly don't agree with

0:30:28.564 --> 0:30:30.044
<v Speaker 2>a listener, Then no, I.

0:30:30.004 --> 0:30:32.204
<v Speaker 1>Don't at all. I actually and I think that there's

0:30:32.284 --> 0:30:35.644
<v Speaker 1>a ton of research on why you want to learn

0:30:35.764 --> 0:30:39.044
<v Speaker 1>a second language that has nothing to do with, you know,

0:30:39.404 --> 0:30:42.444
<v Speaker 1>traveling over the world and having it be you know,

0:30:42.484 --> 0:30:46.844
<v Speaker 1>a you know, basically how to communicate with people that

0:30:46.924 --> 0:30:49.684
<v Speaker 1>I think, by the way, is incredibly important. I actually

0:30:49.764 --> 0:30:51.964
<v Speaker 1>think it's great to be able to speak the language

0:30:52.004 --> 0:30:54.604
<v Speaker 1>at least a little bit of the place that you're visiting.

0:30:54.804 --> 0:30:57.284
<v Speaker 1>It helps you appreciate it more, It helps you get

0:30:57.284 --> 0:31:01.244
<v Speaker 1>a different experience, and you will, you know, I like

0:31:01.324 --> 0:31:03.964
<v Speaker 1>going off the beaten path, right like I like going

0:31:04.004 --> 0:31:06.764
<v Speaker 1>to places that are kind of in in the back

0:31:06.844 --> 0:31:10.444
<v Speaker 1>alleys and like the local hidden places where oftentimes people

0:31:10.484 --> 0:31:13.284
<v Speaker 1>don't speak English. And I think that I think that

0:31:13.324 --> 0:31:16.244
<v Speaker 1>you just you gain a lot from life for being

0:31:16.284 --> 0:31:18.444
<v Speaker 1>able to speak the language. So I disagree with that,

0:31:18.564 --> 0:31:20.964
<v Speaker 1>but that's a matter of you know, opinion, right, And

0:31:21.004 --> 0:31:23.324
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to be like an obnoxious tourus because

0:31:23.444 --> 0:31:26.324
<v Speaker 1>if you think about it, basically everyone else in the

0:31:26.324 --> 0:31:29.284
<v Speaker 1>world is bilingual and they've learned English to help the

0:31:29.484 --> 0:31:33.484
<v Speaker 1>idiot Americans who refused to learn a second language, Like,

0:31:33.564 --> 0:31:36.084
<v Speaker 1>if you meet someone from the Netherlands, they're going to

0:31:36.124 --> 0:31:38.484
<v Speaker 1>speak English. If you meet someone from France, they're going

0:31:38.524 --> 0:31:41.324
<v Speaker 1>to speak English. And you know they they I think

0:31:41.364 --> 0:31:44.284
<v Speaker 1>are a lot richer for it because they have acquired

0:31:44.324 --> 0:31:47.724
<v Speaker 1>that second language. And I think that it's just it's

0:31:47.924 --> 0:31:50.964
<v Speaker 1>great to be able to do it as well. But

0:31:51.284 --> 0:31:54.324
<v Speaker 1>if we talk about the research, there are actually a

0:31:54.444 --> 0:31:58.524
<v Speaker 1>ton of benefits for your brain for for learning more

0:31:58.604 --> 0:32:02.124
<v Speaker 1>languages that actually I was wondering just before we get

0:32:02.124 --> 0:32:04.124
<v Speaker 1>into that, do you have kind of do you have

0:32:04.164 --> 0:32:07.764
<v Speaker 1>other languages and kind of what's your just high level

0:32:07.764 --> 0:32:08.244
<v Speaker 1>take on this.

0:32:08.604 --> 0:32:11.524
<v Speaker 2>No, I look, I they took Spanish in high school

0:32:12.604 --> 0:32:14.804
<v Speaker 2>and learned just enough to pass out of my college

0:32:14.804 --> 0:32:18.524
<v Speaker 2>Spanish requirements. So I you know, I can listen at

0:32:18.524 --> 0:32:21.804
<v Speaker 2>like forty percent comprehension and read at sixty percent comprehension.

0:32:22.964 --> 0:32:25.124
<v Speaker 2>You know, restaurant menu stuff. I mean, in general, is

0:32:25.164 --> 0:32:27.844
<v Speaker 2>a foodie I can read. I actually prefer to read,

0:32:27.924 --> 0:32:32.164
<v Speaker 2>like I'd rather see an Italian menu in Italian than English,

0:32:32.164 --> 0:32:35.204
<v Speaker 2>because I trust my abilit of like a know the

0:32:35.284 --> 0:32:37.764
<v Speaker 2>original terms or translate more. But yeah, apart from apart

0:32:37.764 --> 0:32:42.004
<v Speaker 2>from that very limited basis, no, I look, I am

0:32:42.044 --> 0:32:45.044
<v Speaker 2>sympathetic to the research you're setting for a couple of reasons, right.

0:32:46.524 --> 0:32:48.524
<v Speaker 2>One is, I do think that like if you look

0:32:48.564 --> 0:32:53.444
<v Speaker 2>at like large language models, they suggest that like any

0:32:53.484 --> 0:32:56.724
<v Speaker 2>given language, whether it's English or Spanish, or French or Russian,

0:32:56.844 --> 0:32:59.844
<v Speaker 2>or whether it's computer language or mathematical language, is like

0:33:00.964 --> 0:33:05.684
<v Speaker 2>an incomplete representation of like the kind of implicit to

0:33:05.764 --> 0:33:10.604
<v Speaker 2>sound pretentious implicit vector space of human thought. Yeah, and

0:33:10.684 --> 0:33:14.524
<v Speaker 2>so having a wider like literal vocabulary that's not just

0:33:14.564 --> 0:33:16.644
<v Speaker 2>English based and interesting. I mean, the analogy I sometimes

0:33:16.724 --> 0:33:22.364
<v Speaker 2>make is like there are poker concepts that are hard

0:33:22.484 --> 0:33:26.244
<v Speaker 2>to translate if you haven't specifically played poker. Right, The

0:33:26.284 --> 0:33:29.004
<v Speaker 2>notion that like if you're indifferent between two decisions, that

0:33:29.204 --> 0:33:32.244
<v Speaker 2>like small factors make a difference. I mean it's kind

0:33:32.244 --> 0:33:34.564
<v Speaker 2>of legible in English, but like, but yeah, you know,

0:33:34.684 --> 0:33:36.844
<v Speaker 2>and sometimes I'm thinking a lot about poker, like programming

0:33:36.924 --> 0:33:39.404
<v Speaker 2>or things like that. It feels like it's improving some

0:33:39.524 --> 0:33:41.964
<v Speaker 2>other types of cognitive recognition, where if I'm really deep in

0:33:42.004 --> 0:33:46.204
<v Speaker 2>like doing some static coding or something, it's hard to know.

0:33:46.244 --> 0:33:47.604
<v Speaker 2>I mean, the question is kind of what are the

0:33:47.764 --> 0:33:51.004
<v Speaker 2>realistic trade offs? I mean, maybe if you did learn

0:33:51.084 --> 0:33:53.444
<v Speaker 2>programming language, maybe you did learn a craft deeply. I

0:33:53.524 --> 0:33:57.284
<v Speaker 2>you know, I think there is a lot of metaphors

0:33:57.364 --> 0:34:01.204
<v Speaker 2>in art and literature that I think are probably somewhat

0:34:01.284 --> 0:34:03.884
<v Speaker 2>parallel to language. Of course, you can read some of

0:34:03.924 --> 0:34:07.484
<v Speaker 2>those texts earlier easier if you have. If you have,

0:34:07.604 --> 0:34:10.964
<v Speaker 2>but yeah, I don't know. I like, where are you

0:34:11.004 --> 0:34:13.244
<v Speaker 2>making a big better or a small bet? Right? Like

0:34:13.284 --> 0:34:17.644
<v Speaker 2>should I do in my spare time take do a lingos?

0:34:17.724 --> 0:34:19.724
<v Speaker 2>So if we're at the EPT Paris next year, I

0:34:19.764 --> 0:34:23.204
<v Speaker 2>can kind of make half sentences or not right or

0:34:23.204 --> 0:34:24.964
<v Speaker 2>shout to go all in. I mean, where do you

0:34:24.964 --> 0:34:25.604
<v Speaker 2>line up there?

0:34:26.044 --> 0:34:29.284
<v Speaker 1>Yeah? I think that that's a very personal decision. But

0:34:29.364 --> 0:34:31.484
<v Speaker 1>I think so. One of the things you mentioned, I

0:34:31.524 --> 0:34:33.604
<v Speaker 1>think there is a lot of work on which is

0:34:33.644 --> 0:34:37.324
<v Speaker 1>that our views of the world really are expanded by

0:34:37.324 --> 0:34:40.324
<v Speaker 1>having the proper vocabulary for it, right Like being able

0:34:40.324 --> 0:34:44.084
<v Speaker 1>to express your thoughts, emotions, kind of having the words

0:34:44.124 --> 0:34:48.324
<v Speaker 1>for things actually helps you, you know, figure out what

0:34:48.404 --> 0:34:51.884
<v Speaker 1>they are, helps you think more rationally, more logically, make

0:34:52.044 --> 0:34:55.444
<v Speaker 1>better decisions, and they're you know, sometimes I have a

0:34:55.564 --> 0:34:58.284
<v Speaker 1>Russian word for something that doesn't exist in English, and

0:34:58.324 --> 0:35:01.284
<v Speaker 1>it's a nuance. It's a distinction that I wouldn't otherwise have.

0:35:01.644 --> 0:35:03.404
<v Speaker 1>And we know that this is true of like just

0:35:03.444 --> 0:35:06.684
<v Speaker 1>physical perception of the world, right You people who have

0:35:07.084 --> 0:35:11.484
<v Speaker 1>who are artists, who have larger palette of colors and

0:35:11.804 --> 0:35:14.524
<v Speaker 1>know all the different hues, they actually are able to

0:35:14.564 --> 0:35:17.324
<v Speaker 1>distinguish more colors when you give them kind of a

0:35:17.364 --> 0:35:19.924
<v Speaker 1>color wheel. Where someone might be like, oh I see

0:35:19.964 --> 0:35:22.884
<v Speaker 1>red and green, they actually see more colors, right, Like,

0:35:22.964 --> 0:35:26.644
<v Speaker 1>their visual experience is different because they know what the

0:35:26.644 --> 0:35:29.804
<v Speaker 1>words are, and different languages have different words for things,

0:35:29.844 --> 0:35:32.244
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's really important. I think that that's

0:35:32.244 --> 0:35:37.524
<v Speaker 1>actually really cool. Like I love these learning learning kind

0:35:37.564 --> 0:35:40.804
<v Speaker 1>of even languages I don't know, learning words to express

0:35:41.004 --> 0:35:45.404
<v Speaker 1>certain concepts, certain states, you know, certain parts of the world.

0:35:45.884 --> 0:35:49.004
<v Speaker 1>But there are also other benefits beyond that. So first,

0:35:49.284 --> 0:35:52.644
<v Speaker 1>cognitive control, which is executive control, which is really important,

0:35:52.684 --> 0:35:56.964
<v Speaker 1>is better in bilinguals. So all of those cognitive functions

0:35:57.004 --> 0:36:00.284
<v Speaker 1>tend to be enhanced by having kind of the control

0:36:00.324 --> 0:36:03.204
<v Speaker 1>to switch between languages. Right, having all these different things

0:36:03.204 --> 0:36:05.924
<v Speaker 1>co exist in your mind, especially if you learn it young.

0:36:06.004 --> 0:36:08.284
<v Speaker 1>But right now, let's not talk about that, because that's

0:36:08.284 --> 0:36:10.204
<v Speaker 1>not what the question is. Right. He actually tries to

0:36:10.244 --> 0:36:12.644
<v Speaker 1>exclude people who had it as a freebie. So like

0:36:12.684 --> 0:36:15.084
<v Speaker 1>Russian for me is a freebie, but English is not.

0:36:15.204 --> 0:36:18.124
<v Speaker 1>I actually grew up modelingual just speaking Russian. I learned

0:36:18.124 --> 0:36:21.444
<v Speaker 1>English in school when I was already you know, when

0:36:21.444 --> 0:36:25.484
<v Speaker 1>I was five years old, so it wasn't quite a freebie,

0:36:25.524 --> 0:36:27.324
<v Speaker 1>but I was still a little kid. So let's just

0:36:27.364 --> 0:36:29.564
<v Speaker 1>call it a freebie. And then the other language.

0:36:29.644 --> 0:36:31.884
<v Speaker 2>If you're Russian guys discussing poker at the table, do

0:36:31.964 --> 0:36:33.564
<v Speaker 2>they assume you don't know what they're saying.

0:36:33.884 --> 0:36:36.884
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes when they don't, it's amazing because they'll say horrible

0:36:36.924 --> 0:36:40.564
<v Speaker 1>things about me, assumptions about me, or things about their hand.

0:36:40.884 --> 0:36:42.964
<v Speaker 1>And I've actually learned a lot of information. More and

0:36:43.004 --> 0:36:46.164
<v Speaker 1>more people realize I speak Russian these days, but a

0:36:46.164 --> 0:36:48.124
<v Speaker 1>lot of people still don't know. Yeah, so that is

0:36:48.164 --> 0:36:50.244
<v Speaker 1>a lot of fun. But the other thing that I

0:36:50.244 --> 0:36:54.364
<v Speaker 1>think that our listener would be very interested in knowing

0:36:54.764 --> 0:36:57.284
<v Speaker 1>is that it seems like people who speak more languages

0:36:57.644 --> 0:37:00.484
<v Speaker 1>actually age a lot better and their brains are protected

0:37:00.564 --> 0:37:05.164
<v Speaker 1>a lot longer and more strongly from dementia and cognitive decline.

0:37:05.444 --> 0:37:10.884
<v Speaker 1>So on average, people who are bilingual or or more

0:37:10.924 --> 0:37:15.804
<v Speaker 1>but let's just say bilingual, if they experience signs of

0:37:15.844 --> 0:37:19.124
<v Speaker 1>cognitive decline over four years later than people who aren't,

0:37:19.124 --> 0:37:21.444
<v Speaker 1>that's huge, right, Like, think about that, Like.

0:37:21.524 --> 0:37:23.284
<v Speaker 2>Sotimes, we know this is not how do we know

0:37:23.324 --> 0:37:27.284
<v Speaker 2>this is not just selecting for higher socio economic status

0:37:27.324 --> 0:37:28.124
<v Speaker 2>and or education.

0:37:28.324 --> 0:37:30.644
<v Speaker 1>So these studies are pretty well done with those types

0:37:30.684 --> 0:37:33.124
<v Speaker 1>of controls, right, So that's super easy to control for

0:37:33.564 --> 0:37:36.764
<v Speaker 1>you just put in a control for socioeconomic status and

0:37:36.804 --> 0:37:39.604
<v Speaker 1>you see does this still have an effect? And in

0:37:39.644 --> 0:37:42.204
<v Speaker 1>general it seems like it does. Now, this work is prelimited,

0:37:42.244 --> 0:37:45.764
<v Speaker 1>Like we all of these types of things are incredibly difficult, right,

0:37:46.244 --> 0:37:48.964
<v Speaker 1>These are really really hard things to study. So we

0:37:49.084 --> 0:37:51.404
<v Speaker 1>have a good sense that this that this might matter,

0:37:52.324 --> 0:37:55.844
<v Speaker 1>and we know that you know with like with dementia,

0:37:55.884 --> 0:37:58.284
<v Speaker 1>where you where you actually see Alzheimer's where you can

0:37:58.324 --> 0:38:00.484
<v Speaker 1>see kind of the plaques, et cetera. And then you

0:38:00.524 --> 0:38:03.044
<v Speaker 1>can just see like when did people you know, after

0:38:03.084 --> 0:38:05.684
<v Speaker 1>they die, like when did they start exhibiting signs? You

0:38:05.804 --> 0:38:09.004
<v Speaker 1>end up seeing that people who are bilingual exhibit signs

0:38:09.084 --> 0:38:12.484
<v Speaker 1>much later, so they're able to kind of compensate, right,

0:38:12.484 --> 0:38:14.284
<v Speaker 1>because you have different parts of your brain, you're able

0:38:14.324 --> 0:38:17.284
<v Speaker 1>to compensate for the loss in a much better way.

0:38:18.164 --> 0:38:20.684
<v Speaker 1>And I think that that's really interesting. Oftentimes there's a

0:38:20.684 --> 0:38:25.524
<v Speaker 1>lot of clinical evidence and it's quite quite interesting. But

0:38:25.884 --> 0:38:28.844
<v Speaker 1>when you have a stroke, you know when when something

0:38:28.924 --> 0:38:32.084
<v Speaker 1>goes really wrong in your brain, oftentimes people who are

0:38:32.084 --> 0:38:35.924
<v Speaker 1>bilingual switchlan like you forget one language but you retain

0:38:35.964 --> 0:38:39.964
<v Speaker 1>the other somehow. It's really cool. Yeah, there's some really

0:38:40.004 --> 0:38:43.844
<v Speaker 1>really cool stuff where your brain is much more flexible

0:38:44.404 --> 0:38:46.924
<v Speaker 1>and you have much more cognitive capacity to deal with

0:38:46.964 --> 0:38:49.804
<v Speaker 1>bad shit happening. And I think that that's something that

0:38:49.844 --> 0:38:52.964
<v Speaker 1>everyone should want, right, Like you want to think and

0:38:53.044 --> 0:38:57.284
<v Speaker 1>be sharper and have kind of those reserves for as

0:38:57.324 --> 0:39:01.564
<v Speaker 1>long as possible, so to me, it's just an absolute

0:39:01.644 --> 0:39:06.484
<v Speaker 1>no brainer for no pun intended for a lot of reasons.

0:39:06.524 --> 0:39:08.764
<v Speaker 1>But I think that all of these different areas of

0:39:08.804 --> 0:39:12.284
<v Speaker 1>research are interesting, Maria.

0:39:12.044 --> 0:39:13.764
<v Speaker 2>Since we both have some poker to play and in

0:39:13.804 --> 0:39:15.644
<v Speaker 2>my case also lunch to eat. Do you want to

0:39:15.884 --> 0:39:16.524
<v Speaker 2>wrap up there?

0:39:16.724 --> 0:39:20.204
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that sounds good to me. I hope, dear ed,

0:39:20.404 --> 0:39:23.924
<v Speaker 1>that we've convinced you to learn a second language, that

0:39:23.964 --> 0:39:27.004
<v Speaker 1>it is actually plus ev for you for a number

0:39:27.004 --> 0:39:29.444
<v Speaker 1>of reasons, even though most people you encounter will be

0:39:29.444 --> 0:39:30.444
<v Speaker 1>able to speak English.

0:39:30.964 --> 0:39:34.284
<v Speaker 2>If you have a listener question, dear listener, email us

0:39:34.324 --> 0:39:38.204
<v Speaker 2>at Risky Business all one word at Pushkin dot fm,

0:39:38.244 --> 0:39:39.804
<v Speaker 2>and maybe you will have the chance to be on

0:39:39.844 --> 0:39:41.764
<v Speaker 2>the air and to have let us have some fun

0:39:41.804 --> 0:39:42.764
<v Speaker 2>with your question instead.

0:39:48.724 --> 0:39:50.924
<v Speaker 1>Risky Business is hosted by me Maria.

0:39:50.644 --> 0:39:52.764
<v Speaker 2>Kannikova and byb Nate Silver.

0:39:53.324 --> 0:39:56.844
<v Speaker 1>The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

0:39:57.364 --> 0:40:00.924
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

0:40:01.004 --> 0:40:04.524
<v Speaker 1>is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

0:40:05.044 --> 0:40:07.204
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0:40:07.204 --> 0:40:09.204
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0:40:09.204 --> 0:40:11.644
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0:40:11.684 --> 0:40:14.284
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0:40:14.284 --> 0:40:17.084
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