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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.

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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. Is me Joey p

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Speaker 1: Joe Piezapia, and it's time for the week eleven look

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Speaker 1: ahead already. Of course we'll do a little fly by

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Speaker 1: a Monday night football as well. But remember we're brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM, the king of sports books.

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Speaker 1: Use that pro lo code, betting pros, and don't forget

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Speaker 1: to download the sportsbook app for bet mgm today on

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Speaker 1: your Apple or your Google device.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: They all work and they're all fun, So go check

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Speaker 1: out bet MGM, and gentlemen, a fun weekend of football.

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Speaker 1: My goodness, I know Pat's in a good mood. The

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Speaker 1: Packers pulled a rabbit out of their hat. But I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you, ma'am. Maybe the game of the year, the

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Speaker 1: Vikings and the Bills, that was wild. That was crazy,

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Speaker 1: lots of emotions, lots of roller coasters, an amazing catch

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Speaker 1: by Justin Jefferson two and can you believe it, jeff

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Speaker 1: Saturday got a victory. Look at this, what a crazy

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Speaker 1: year of football twenty twenty two is. And there's only

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Speaker 1: one thing we could do, which is continue to look ahead.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna do that. The Tennessee Titans now six

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Speaker 1: and three, going against the Green Bay Packers, who are

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Speaker 1: three and six and still in the playoff hunt if

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Speaker 1: you can believe it, because that's the story of the NFC.

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Speaker 1: But let's talk about this. Let's talk about the Packers here.

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Speaker 1: They are one point favorites at home. Tennessee is a

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Speaker 1: team that I always say it, every week, they drag

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Speaker 1: you down to their level. It's ugly, smash mouthy kind

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Speaker 1: of football, and that has been a successful formula for

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Speaker 1: Mike Verbel and this team for quite a while.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: Is this the exact worst kind of team for the

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Speaker 1: Packers to be playing after this week? Pat fitz Morris,

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts here on this one? Because we've

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Speaker 1: got forty one is the number and that might even

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Speaker 1: feel too high for me? Your thoughts on the Titans

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Speaker 1: and Green Bay Packers?

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Speaker 4: Was there a good team for the Packers to play?

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Speaker 5: Joe, because they've lost to you know, a series of

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Speaker 5: bad teams before turning things around against the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: I think the thing is, I mean you're talking about

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Speaker 1: physical football teams. I mean the Cowboys defense certainly can

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Speaker 1: play physical, but offensively they are not exactly you know,

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Speaker 1: they're not handing the ball off to Derrick Henry five times.

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Speaker 2: You know what I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: It's not the kind of team that's gonna push you

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Speaker 1: on the line. The Titans want to win games on

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Speaker 1: the lines, and that's one thing that I think is

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Speaker 1: tough because the Green Bay offensive line hasn't played all

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Speaker 1: that well this year.

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Speaker 2: We all know that. So I mean, look, it's basically

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Speaker 2: a pick them.

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Speaker 1: But to me, if you asked me, I would have

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Speaker 1: thought Tennessee would be favored by more going into this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I mean, it's funny, Joe, because like late into the

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Speaker 5: third quarter yesterday, the Packers had I think thirteen pass

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Speaker 5: attempts for the game, like they were actually trying to

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Speaker 5: play Tennessee Titans football against the Cowboys yesterday and you know,

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Speaker 5: basically run it and just pass in an opportunistic sort

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Speaker 5: of way. But yeah, so the first thing I think

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Speaker 5: about is Derrick Henry against the Packers defense.

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Speaker 4: Not good. Packers run defense has been a mass all year,

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Speaker 4: but like the emergence of Christian Watson for the Packers

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Speaker 4: yesterday was no small thing like this offense needed a

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Speaker 4: playmaker in the worst way, and it looks like they

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Speaker 4: might have discovered one. So with this total, the low total, Like,

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Speaker 4: on one hand, I mean, yes, both teams are going

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Speaker 4: to play conservatively. Maybe that's sort of the Packers new approach,

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Speaker 4: and like, if the Packers do try to play that way,

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Speaker 4: they're playing right into the Titans hands because they defend

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Speaker 4: the run so well. On the other hand, though, I

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Speaker 4: think both of these offenses could potentially be pretty efficient here.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I do think the Titans will be able

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Speaker 4: to run with success against the Packers, and you know,

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Speaker 4: maybe Aaron Rodgers is able to pick on the Titans

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Speaker 4: pass defense a little bit. So I like the over here,

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Speaker 4: not feeling really strongly about a side.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny because last night when I put the

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Speaker 1: show sheet together, this number was at one, and now

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Speaker 1: this morning I see on betting pros dot com it

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Speaker 1: is two and a half. Now on the Green Bay side,

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Speaker 1: I'm jumping all over Tennessee here, Friedman, I am making

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Speaker 1: no qualms about this.

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Speaker 2: I have no apologies.

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Speaker 1: I'm not drinking the green kool Aid because I don't

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Speaker 1: know what flavor it is, could even be that ecto

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Speaker 1: cooler stuff, which was super weird when I was a kid,

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Speaker 1: and I wouldn't drink it then. So, Freedom, what are

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on this? Any early value on this Packers

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Speaker 1: Titans content?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm I'm the other way, but I can see

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Speaker 6: the side for the Titans, because you know, the Packers

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Speaker 6: are most vulnerable on defense against the run, and this

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Speaker 6: feels like a Derrick Henry smash spot where they just

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Speaker 6: give him the ball thirty times a game and keep

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Speaker 6: it close and win by a field goal. And Mike

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Speaker 6: Vrabel as an underdog, that's when you want to back him,

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Speaker 6: So it's kind of the perfect spot.

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Speaker 3: The thing is, I look.

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Speaker 6: At Tennessee and I have no respect for really what

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Speaker 6: they're doing.

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Speaker 3: On offense.

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Speaker 6: Tannehill is still limited, Like you could see it physically,

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Speaker 6: He's still very much limited, and now he's playing on

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Speaker 6: short rest. And on defense they're missing like seven starters,

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Speaker 6: you know. Like this feels like a changing point for

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Speaker 6: the Packers offense where they were starting to do a

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Speaker 6: lot of things right against a really tough Cowboys defense.

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Speaker 6: So I have upgraded them a little bit. I have

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Speaker 6: this around like two point seventy five to three, and

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Speaker 6: so if I can get it under the key number

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Speaker 6: of three, I will be inclined to take Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 6: at home, but you know, in reality there's probably not

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Speaker 6: much value here.

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Speaker 3: But I would lean pretty strongly towards the Packers.

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Speaker 1: I just took the Titans while you were talking on

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Speaker 1: the money line at plus one twenty eight over on

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Speaker 1: FANDLE because it was a good cell job. You really tried,

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Speaker 1: had a lot of good points there. I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: back to the Derrick Henry smash part because I just

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Speaker 1: don't think at the end of the day we can

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Speaker 1: stop that the Chicago Bears, justin Fields.

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Speaker 2: Is almost unstoppable. Not quite, but almost.

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Speaker 1: The Bears and the Falcons are gonna lock up here

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Speaker 1: in this one of the Falcons are three point home favorites,

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Speaker 1: which basically tells you that you know, Vegas has no clue.

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Speaker 1: Whenever you see that you got forty eight and a

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Speaker 1: half on the over under here and plus one forty

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Speaker 1: three on the money line for the Bears. So certainly

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Speaker 1: last Sunday here it was a contest that was very

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Speaker 1: winnable for the Chicago Bears. They had their moments. Give

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Speaker 1: credit to the Lions. They showed grit. Yes, grit, that's

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Speaker 1: what they showed. We've been hearing about it for all

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Speaker 1: these months. I finally saw it in action.

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Speaker 2: So what do you make of this one?

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Speaker 1: Atlanta coming off a tough loss, a little bit extra

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Speaker 1: time to prepare, but the Bears offense really starting to

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Speaker 1: look like something that's going to give a lot of

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Speaker 1: people fits and opposing defenses are going to be chasing

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Speaker 1: them for days and days. What are your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: this early value? If any freedman for the Falcons and Bears.

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Speaker 6: He said, give them fits and fits. His ears perked down.

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Speaker 6: It's like, you know, like I heard my name there?

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Speaker 6: Should yeah, should the Falcons? Should the Falcons be favored

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Speaker 6: against anyone? Even at home? Like this? This line feels

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Speaker 6: really wrong. And Arthur Smith is three and nine against

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Speaker 6: the spread at home for his career, Like he does

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Speaker 6: not have a home field advantage at least historically based

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Speaker 6: on how his team has performed win playing in the

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Speaker 6: Mercedes Benz Stadium. So I have these teams very even,

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Speaker 6: and I'll say I also see value on the over here,

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Speaker 6: Like the Bears have been an over team for the

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Speaker 6: past month, you know, as their defense has lost players

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Speaker 6: to trades and Justin Fields has turned it on and

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Speaker 6: become like Lamar Jackson two point zero, Like they've been

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Speaker 6: able to score and they've been scored upon, and I

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Speaker 6: think we continue to see that here.

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Speaker 3: So I like the Bears and I like the over.

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Speaker 2: It's a great point.

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Speaker 1: Another sixty points in the contest plus that they had

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Speaker 1: on this Sunday. Is that the way to approach this

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Speaker 1: game two fits and just stay away from winners and losers,

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Speaker 1: and as Bruce Springsteen said, don't get caught on the

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Speaker 1: wrong side of that line.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So this is a really interesting game in that it's

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Speaker 5: tied for the highest total on the board this week

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Speaker 5: between the two run heaviest teams in the NFL. Like

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Speaker 5: the Bears are running the ball on fifty nine point

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Speaker 5: six percent of their offensive snaps, the Falcons on fifty

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Speaker 5: six point one percent of their offensive snap. So also,

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Speaker 5: these are two slower paced teams offensively, like the Falcons

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Speaker 5: are sorry looking for this. Falcons are thirtieth in offensive,

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Speaker 5: Bears twenty third. So two run heavy, slow paced teams

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Speaker 5: and we've got this super high total. I can't quite

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Speaker 5: get on board with the over here. I'm not sure.

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Speaker 5: I'm confident enough in the under to totally fly in

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Speaker 5: the face of Freedman here and defy him and go unders.

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Speaker 2: Though that was well done.

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Speaker 4: Fly yeah exactly.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean, the Falcons have a lot of

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Speaker 5: the second fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, but I

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Speaker 5: actually don't really buy into that because they really haven't

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Speaker 5: played any running quarterbacks save for like Justin Herbert, who

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Speaker 5: just sort of runs opportunistically. So yeah, like I agree

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Speaker 5: with Friedman. If I'm betting this, I'm betting the Bears,

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Speaker 5: and the total just kind of makes me nervous. I

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Speaker 5: don't think I can go over here with these two

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Speaker 5: teams trying to drag football back into the nineteen seventies, I.

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Speaker 6: Will say, I will say quickly to fits his point.

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Speaker 6: I totally agree with everything that he said regarding the

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Speaker 6: slow pace and the run nature of both offenses. The

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Speaker 6: thing is, both of these teams play with great efficiency,

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Speaker 6: especially like with fields being able to take off and

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Speaker 6: turn like any run into sixty yard game. So the

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Speaker 6: efficiency is what will give this game the over if

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Speaker 6: it actually gets there.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna say he could turn any loss potentially

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Speaker 1: into a fifty yard game, which even more I mean,

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Speaker 1: that is such a backbreaker for defenses when they have

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Speaker 1: somebody dead to rights and he breaks three tackles and

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Speaker 1: then go scores a touchdown on them. That is just

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Speaker 1: the stuff bonus points. Can you name the Bruce Springsteen

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Speaker 1: song that I quoted, anyone?

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Speaker 2: Anyone?

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Speaker 1: Come on, there's winners and losers, and don't get caught

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Speaker 1: on the wrong side of that line.

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Speaker 2: No, Atlantic City, Atlantic City. It's a good tune.

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Speaker 1: Should listen to it today, everybody. All right, so the

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Speaker 1: little music lesson for you. Let's go to the next

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Speaker 1: one here, and we've got the Carolina Panther that's coming

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Speaker 1: off of Big w see primetime games. Those guys know

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Speaker 1: everybody's watching this one though. They are twelve and a

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Speaker 1: half point underdogs going into Baltimore, and rightfully so, because

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Speaker 1: that Baltimore Ravens defense looks very, very good. Right now,

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Speaker 1: forty four is the number for this one. If you

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Speaker 1: like the Panthers to upset, and if you do, I'd

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Speaker 1: like you to check into a local medical facility.

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Speaker 2: It's plus five hundred if.

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Speaker 3: You like that.

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Speaker 2: Now, anything can happen. We all know that. But let's

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Speaker 2: talk about the twelve and a half.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about any early value here fits When you're

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Speaker 1: looking at this a situation here for the Baltimore Ravens

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Speaker 1: and the Panthers, do you see any value at all?

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Speaker 1: Do you see this twelve and a half growing potentially

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Speaker 1: even larger as the week goes on?

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Speaker 4: It could, And I don't see any value, Joe.

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Speaker 5: I just like I will not bet favorites this big

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Speaker 5: in the NFL, and I won't bet against the Ravens

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Speaker 5: at home, So I would be violating two policies by

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Speaker 5: playing either side of this game.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 4: It's just like, I think the Ravens.

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Speaker 5: Probably are twelve and a half points better at home

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Speaker 5: than this Panthers team, But at the same time, like,

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Speaker 5: I hate the idea that the Ravens could be coasting

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Speaker 5: and up seventeen points late and get back doored and

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Speaker 5: you know, lose lose money for you. So I'm leaning

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Speaker 5: towards the under here because the Panthers defense doesn't completely stink,

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Speaker 5: but their offense does in fact stink. And you know,

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Speaker 5: the Ravens played kind of a slower pace. They're thirty

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Speaker 5: first in offensive pace, So I might play the under here,

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Speaker 5: but I'm not touching a side.

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Speaker 1: Interesting too to see that first initial instinct of when

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Speaker 1: you see Roqwan Smith with this new defense here in Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: The immediate dividends were justin Houston and Kalaias Campbell basically

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Speaker 1: just torturing Andy Dalton for four quarters the last time

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Speaker 1: we saw this group. So now you're gonna see them

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Speaker 1: coming off of a bye with a little bit more

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Speaker 1: time to prepare. So, Friedman, what are your thoughts here

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Speaker 1: on this one? Do you think that Baltimore wins this

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Speaker 1: one handily? Or do you think there's any possibility with

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Speaker 1: some of those injuries they're so struggling with on offense

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Speaker 1: that the Carolina Panthers can hang.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I take Fitz's point, and I'll say, like, there's nothing

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Speaker 6: probably more square than being like I'm gonna bet the

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Speaker 6: big favorite at home coming off of a bye, Like,

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Speaker 6: could you be any.

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Speaker 3: More of a fish?

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Speaker 6: I will be the Sickoh Okay, I yes, I want

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Speaker 6: to be on Ravens in this spot, twelve and a

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Speaker 6: half feels like it's one to one and a half

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Speaker 6: points too short, Like it would not surprise me if

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Speaker 6: this number gets at thirteen and a half or fourteen,

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Speaker 6: Because the Ravens they are getting healthy, they are coming

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Speaker 6: off of the buy, and the Panthers are bad. Like

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Speaker 6: I think they outperformed last week what we would have

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Speaker 6: expected them to see, you know, outperform the spread certainly,

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Speaker 6: but I don't give them a lot of credit for that.

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Speaker 6: They were playing a divisional opponent, they were at home,

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Speaker 6: they were on a short week. This feels like a

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Speaker 6: very different situation. So I show value on it and

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Speaker 6: I expect the line to move.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell

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Speaker 2: Vada and New York. And now back to the action.

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Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills find themselves if they are two straight

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Speaker 1: losses now at six and three, they will be home

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Speaker 1: again to hopefully bounce back. Here for the Buffalo Bills fans,

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Speaker 1: at least against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland is three and

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Speaker 1: six and they just let everybody run on you all

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Speaker 1: day long.

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Speaker 2: You can run on the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 1: So Buffalo, we saw it in yesterday as they were

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Speaker 1: willing to, certainly with that Josh Allen elbow being if

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Speaker 1: he run the football little bit more than we've seen

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Speaker 1: this year. The Buffalo Bills are eight and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites in this one over. I'm bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: The number is forty seven. If you like Cleveland to

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Speaker 1: upset them and Buffalo go to three straight losses, it's

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Speaker 1: plus two twenty Freedman.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about this one here.

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Speaker 1: Certainly Josh Allen, I don't I think we can all agree,

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Speaker 1: doesn't look like himself, but certainly still good enough. Eighty

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Speaker 1: five percent Josh Allen or seventy five percent Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: is still pretty darn good when you compare him to

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Speaker 1: other quarterbacks in the NFL. But I guess more of

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Speaker 1: the question is do you feel this is any value

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Speaker 1: whatsoever early, whether it be on the over under or

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Speaker 1: on the line itself in this game, considering what you

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Speaker 1: saw Sunday out of Buffalo.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Like I would be happy to take this at

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Speaker 6: eight and a half. I think fits might disagree with

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Speaker 6: me a little bit on this, Like I'm much higher

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Speaker 6: on this. I think this line should be like past ten.

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Speaker 6: I'm not as concerned about the Josh Allen elbow thing

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Speaker 6: as I am the Josh Allen decision making. Like it

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Speaker 6: seems like in the past three games he's like regressed

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Speaker 6: a little bit more towards like the Josh Allen before

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Speaker 6: he had Stefan Diggs type of player, where he's throwing

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Speaker 6: really inopportune interceptions, like the backbreaking interceptions when you could

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Speaker 6: go ahead with another touchdown type of situation. So I'm

348
00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,840
Speaker 6: more worried about that, but I think that is the

349
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 6: kind of thing that will tend to stabilize. The elbow

350
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 6: doesn't concern me as much, Like he can just throw

351
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,360
Speaker 6: it a little bit softer and he still has plenty

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Speaker 6: of arm strength and he's still got some of the

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Speaker 6: best wide receivers in the league. You know, I'm I'm

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Speaker 6: still very much on on the bills here, but I

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Speaker 6: do want to hear Fitz's side of this, because I

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Speaker 6: think he's a little less bullish on the bills than I.

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Speaker 2: Well, all right, let's talk about it.

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Speaker 1: It's because you know, certainly what you've seen the last

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Speaker 1: three weeks, the decision making, the confidence level being shaken

360
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: a little bit too yesterday, Certainly some weird moments in

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Speaker 1: that game. So what do you take out of all

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Speaker 1: of this, Because this is a perfect situation here to

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00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 1: have a Cleveland Brown's defense come in there and try

364
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:20,000
Speaker 1: to run the football, get a victory, get back on

365
00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 1: your feet. But does that style game lend itself to

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Speaker 1: being an eight and a half point spread.

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Speaker 4: Interesting? Yeah, Well, it's funny.

368
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Speaker 5: Friedman mentioned the decision making of Josh Ellen and he

369
00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,440
Speaker 5: was talking about where to go with the football. I

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00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,880
Speaker 5: was thinking, like, is it a good decision to throw

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00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 5: an elbow at a defender after an interception? Throw your

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00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:43,080
Speaker 5: bad elbow at that defender. That was kind of a

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00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:47,920
Speaker 5: iffy decision yesterday. Yeah, I've kind of had to rethink

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Speaker 5: of this, Freedman. I really don't disagree with you that much.

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Speaker 5: Like I'm initial projections slightly on the brown side, But

376
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 5: the more I thought about it, I mean, this just

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Speaker 5: feels like too much respect for Brown's team that has

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00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 5: lost five of its last six and given up twenty

379
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:07,919
Speaker 5: seven point seven points a game over that stretch. So like,

380
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Speaker 5: I don't know if the Bills are really offensively built

381
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Speaker 5: to take advantage of you know, like this is just

382
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,480
Speaker 5: a team that gives up huge chunks of yardage to

383
00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 5: running backs, and are the Bills really built that way.

384
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:21,959
Speaker 5: I don't think it matters. I think they're just going

385
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Speaker 5: to go up and down the field in the Browns.

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Speaker 5: So I am starting to come around to your way

387
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 5: of thinking on this, Friedman. I'm certainly not going to

388
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Speaker 5: bet the Browns in this spot. Don't really have a

389
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Speaker 5: strong feeling about the total.

390
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, and by the way, this last week.

391
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Speaker 6: We think of all of the guys who were out

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Speaker 6: on that Bill's defense, some of those guys are likely

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Speaker 6: to come back.

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00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:48,920
Speaker 1: This Poyer Rousseau was out, Tyer Lomd and come back

395
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 1: Tremaine Edmonds. Yeah, just like that, and they still had

396
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Speaker 1: that game sewn up. Despite all that, they still had

397
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Speaker 1: that game literally in their hands and then fumbled the

398
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Speaker 1: goal line. Yeah, So there you go. Boy, that's suppressing.

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Speaker 1: And I'm not even a Bills fan, but that was

400
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,560
Speaker 1: depressing for me to say that. So I apologize Bills

401
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,159
Speaker 1: fans out there. That was That was not fun. All right,

402
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,160
Speaker 1: Let's get to the next game here, Washington Commanders, all

403
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,480
Speaker 1: in week eleven, after Mond Night football is over, they're

404
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 1: gonna be going to Houston to take on the Houston Texans.

405
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Speaker 1: They will be two and a half point road favorites

406
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,119
Speaker 1: in that one forty and a half is the number here,

407
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,119
Speaker 1: plus one ten on the money line. If you like

408
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans to win at home, fits is the

409
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 1: wrong team favored here? Just a question out here, because

410
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 1: you got Washington going out there on the road, and

411
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 1: you know, I know the Houston Texans are not a

412
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,960
Speaker 1: good football team, but I like the Commanders are world

413
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:37,840
Speaker 1: beaters either.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I mean I think it's entirely possible.

415
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 5: Joe first spin on this, I had the Washington is

416
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 5: a very small favorite, saw the actual line and maybe

417
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:51,239
Speaker 5: inched it up.

418
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,240
Speaker 4: Felt a little pressure to do.

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Speaker 5: That, but yeah, like, I don't like Washington favored as

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00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,400
Speaker 5: a road favorite against anyone really in the NFL. And

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00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,639
Speaker 5: the Texans, you know, they went on the road and

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00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:07,280
Speaker 5: acquitted themselves reasonably well against the Giants yesterday. The Massy

423
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,679
Speaker 5: Peabody Power rankings say that this game on a neutral field,

424
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 5: Washington's about a point better so on the road in Houston. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think this should be pretty close to

426
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Speaker 5: a pick them, if not the Texans favorite.

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Speaker 4: So I am going to jump on this and take

428
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Speaker 4: the Texans.

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Speaker 1: You're only getting plus one ten on the money line

430
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 1: for the Texans, as I thought was sort of interesting.

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00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 1: I thought that would be a bigger temptation number. I

432
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 1: want to see what that number may or may not

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00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:32,679
Speaker 1: become as the week goes on, and that's one that

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00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 1: I'd be monitoring.

435
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 2: But this seems like.

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Speaker 1: One of those classic you know, well, the Commanders are

437
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 1: just a better team than the Texans, but we all

438
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,640
Speaker 1: know this the home underdogs. We've watched it happened time

439
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 1: and time again, no matter how bad some of these

440
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 1: teams are. I mean, the Carolina Panthers per this concept

441
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 1: just last week we watched it. Whether the Falcons were

442
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 1: riding high and then they came in to play Carolina

443
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,400
Speaker 1: and Carolina and next thing you know, they came out

444
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 1: with an L.

445
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:56,919
Speaker 2: So what do you think for Eving about this one

446
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 2: when you look at it early on?

447
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 6: I agree with everything fits just said. I have this

448
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 6: actually even a little bit closer to the Texans.

449
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 3: I think he has it at one point five. I

450
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 3: have at one point two five.

451
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 6: That said I don't want to bet on the Texans,

452
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,880
Speaker 6: Like it's you know, like you bet on the Texans

453
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 6: and like you get what you deserve, you know, so

454
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 6: like I feel like you're taking your fast in your

455
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:18,640
Speaker 6: own hands.

456
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 2: Do you think they're gonna be a one win football

457
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 2: team all year?

458
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:21,880
Speaker 5: Uh?

459
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is distinctly possible. Like I could see how

460
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 3: that happens.

461
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 6: The thing is, I I might bet this if it

462
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 6: gets a three, like I So, I'm just I'm this

463
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 6: is one of those arbitrary points where I'm deciding to

464
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 6: exercise a little bit of discipline, like two and a half.

465
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 6: I think there's some value there, But I also think

466
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 6: like there were things that aren't captured in my power

467
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 6: ratings and situations like, hey, the Texans suck and they

468
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 6: might be looking to lose football games. Uh, and they

469
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 6: have a head coach who decision wise makes the wrong

470
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 6: choice every opportunity he has. So I just I do

471
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 6: not want to be backing them unless I'm getting three.

472
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna wait and maybe this number gets to three,

473
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,199
Speaker 6: and if it doesn't, I will probably be fine not

474
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 6: having a position on it. But I do show theoretical

475
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 6: value like Fitz does on the Texans.

476
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, can I make a point piggyback on Friedman here,

477
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 5: Like I don't want to bet this until after the

478
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 5: Commander's Eagles game tonight, because like, maybe the Commanders give

479
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 5: a plucky performance here like and Hay close, and then

480
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 5: it does get to that key number of three, and

481
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 5: then I'm gonna jump all over the Texans going against

482
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 5: a you know, kind of a weak opponent on you

483
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 5: know that's playing on the road off a short week

484
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 5: of rest.

485
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, excellent approach. We all turn our keys on that one.

486
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: Very good all right, Philadelphia Eagles undefeated as of now

487
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: as us recording this podcast, they are eight and a

488
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road in Indianapolis. Feel a

489
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: good story for Jeff Saturday. So we'll see this whole

490
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 1: for all of us now to get hired as NFL coaches.

491
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 1: So I'll just keep that in there, you know, and

492
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 1: they can watch this podcast, say, hey, that pafits Morris Fellow.

493
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 2: He knows what he's talking about.

494
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,719
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go hire him and make people have Friedman

495
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 1: via general manager and use all of his data stuff

496
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 1: and everything that he's got. Indianapolis Colts, as I said,

497
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: eight and a half point underdogs, forty four is the

498
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: number for this one plus three fifty if you want

499
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts train to keep on rolling. They throw

500
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 1: us a huge curve ball because Matt Ryan was a

501
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 1: quarterback yesterday. So yeah, nobody saw that coming, which was

502
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: wild and would have been fun had some of us

503
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 1: in super flex leagues not drop Matt Ryan weeks ago.

504
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 2: And now we're all upset about it.

505
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: So fits let's look at this one honestly, no matter

506
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: what happens with the Eagles in this game tonight, let's

507
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 1: say even if they lose a nail bier at the end, somehow,

508
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,200
Speaker 1: is there any way this line doesn't just stay around

509
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 1: this eight number because it kind of feels like regardless

510
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: if you write the narrative of the Eagles lose, well,

511
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 1: then they're gonna take their frustrations possibly out on Indianapolis.

512
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: And if they win and they look super convincing, who

513
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: knows this eight and a half could become even more

514
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: What do you think about this?

515
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's gonna be over a touchdown for sure, but

516
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 5: maybe if they completely crush the Commanders to night, we

517
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 5: see this bounce up to like ten or something like that.

518
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 5: So I just got to say, I've been waiting for

519
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 5: like sixteen hours to talk to Friedman about this game

520
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 5: and the Colts, because you know, Friedman really liked the

521
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 5: Raiders yesterday, and you know, on our Sunday morning live stream,

522
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 5: I pushed back a little and I took the Colts

523
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,959
Speaker 5: as part of our money line underdog parlay, which came in,

524
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 5: by the way, because Friedman gave us the Lions and

525
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 5: I gave us the Colts. So we hit that nicely,

526
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 5: like we just have to do such a major reassessment

527
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 5: of the Colts here under Jeff Saturday, Like it looked

528
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 5: like they were in full on tank mode and then

529
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 5: they swerve us and bring, you know, Matt Ryan out

530
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 5: of mothballs after we thought they were just going to

531
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 5: roll with Sam Hellinger and try to you know, get

532
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 5: that high enough pick to find the replacement quarterback. Like,

533
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 5: how was it kept under wraps all week that Matt

534
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 5: Ryan was going to start? And why did not like,

535
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 5: why didn't anyone speculate like maybe Saturday goes back to

536
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 5: Matt Ryan. I don't know, Maybe the Colts aren't really tanking.

537
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 5: So man, the Eagles are coming off short rest. I

538
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 5: have no idea what the Colts' motivation is. Like, there's

539
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 5: too much weirdness here.

540
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: I just can't beat this game, all right, Friedman, your

541
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 1: thoughts here on the Colts and what you saw yesterday,

542
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: which was getting back to basics running the football with

543
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor, that works, that travels. Losing Shaq Leonard on

544
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 1: IR for four weeks certainly isn't going to help anybody defensively.

545
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 2: But you know, sometimes we see this, right, we always

546
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: talk about this.

547
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: We talked about in the show earlier's year, the bounce,

548
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: the changing of the head coach, that one week bounce.

549
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 2: Is that all this was, or is any carryover whatsoever?

550
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: Where maybe you want to lock in this number now

551
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: before it gets even bigger.

552
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, So, thinking about that game last week, there were

553
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 6: some you know, like whispers, there were some Beat reporters

554
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 6: saying they could go back to Matt Ryan.

555
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 3: At some point. I wasn't thinking that was going to

556
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 3: happen right away.

557
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 6: And you know, it's on me for like taking a

558
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 6: little bit of time to like hashtag smell the roses yesterday.

559
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 6: So like I totally missed the Matt Ryan news until

560
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 6: it was too late. Like I would have bought out

561
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 6: of the position if I had known Ryan was going

562
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 6: to be the starter, because the thesis of the play

563
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 6: was all of this put together. You have Ellinger out

564
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 6: there who's not a professional quarterback. If I had known

565
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:22,959
Speaker 6: Matt Ryan was on it, the line would have been

566
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 6: totally different. I wouldn't have been playing it. And now

567
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 6: with Matt Ryan there, seeing what we saw out of

568
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 6: the Colts yesterday, I actually am showing some value on

569
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 6: the Colts here, which, like that hurts my stomach because

570
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 6: I feel like I'm gonna get you know, I'm gonna

571
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 6: get banged by him on the next week or like

572
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 6: last week, and then banged by them this week.

573
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 3: If I'd stay.

574
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: Away, then sometimes you gotta stay away, just.

575
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 3: Like to stay away.

576
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 6: And by the way, the Colts absolutely they're gonna want

577
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 6: to run the ball because like the hashtags were, to

578
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 6: get back to basics, that is what they will be

579
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 6: doing in this game. And the Eagles they are weakest

580
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 6: in run defense. So that does make make me lean

581
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 6: even a little bit more, like outside of the projections,

582
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 6: lean a little bit more towards the Colts. But I

583
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 6: don't want to be betting on Jeff Saturday and a

584
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 6: guy who's never called plays before and dead arm Matt Ryan, Like,

585
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 6: I don't want to do that. So I'm gonna have

586
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 6: to think about this a little bit more. I'm way

587
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 6: too tilted about the.

588
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: Well when you talk about the fact that the Eagles

589
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 1: and the Colts both want to run the football so much,

590
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: though too or in the football takes up time, less

591
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: time you have, chances are less points. We're looking at

592
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: the board. Is the forty four of the way to

593
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 1: go with this? And the under gentlemen, anyone I'm a point.

594
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 4: I'm a point toward the over here.

595
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 2: Okay, very interesting, I'm right at the number.

596
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 3: I'm at forty three point nine.

597
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 2: So all right, well, gotch you get a little closer

598
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 2: to the number. Place, just a little closer.

599
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the New York Jets and

600
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,239
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. Both of these teams coming off

601
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: of bye in week ten, but now it's week eleven.

602
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: The lingle Patriots three and a half point favorite, so

603
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: Vegas likes them just a little bit more than the Jets. Basically,

604
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,239
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half is the number here. If

605
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: you like the Jets to keep on rolling plus one

606
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: seventy five Freeman, let's talk about this here.

607
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 2: Certainly some more time to prepare.

608
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,719
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson has had his struggles in the past against

609
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: that Patriots defense every single time. That's Jets defense is

610
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,199
Speaker 1: for real. We've talked about it here all year on

611
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 1: the show. So let's talk about this one here. Do

612
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: you see any early value in the Pats and Jets?

613
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,959
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is gonna be I want to hear fits

614
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 6: what he has to say, because we have a discrepancy

615
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 6: on this. I have value, I have value on the

616
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 6: Patriots here, I think that this number should be closer

617
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 6: to five and a half. I have it at five

618
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 6: point two five, and so above three and a half,

619
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 6: I think there's I think there's significant value there. I

620
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 6: know Fits is under the three, which means he's probably

621
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 6: already bet the Jets, and I get it. But Zach

622
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 6: Wilson is bad, like he is verifiably bad when pressured.

623
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 6: The Patriots can't get pressure. Wilson hasn't performed well in

624
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 6: any of his three games to date against the Patriots.

625
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 6: This feels like a Patriots spot coming off of the

626
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 6: by at home.

627
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they've struggled at home in recent years too.

628
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: The mystique, and we've talked about this is the aura

629
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,959
Speaker 1: of New England and playing in Foxborough is not what

630
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: it used to be. But that being said Matthew Judahon

631
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 1: leading the league in Zack, certainly you mentioned getting to

632
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: the quarterback. Matriots get to the quarterback. That's for damn sure.

633
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 1: So Fitz, why are you so heavily on the other

634
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 1: side of this. This is a fun little argument we

635
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 1: got going here.

636
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 4: Well, let me you know, break this to Friedman.

637
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 5: Mac Jones is bad too, Friedman and he doesn't move

638
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 5: around at least Zach Wilson is mobile, you know. So

639
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 5: I mean this Jets defense man, Joe, you mentioned it

640
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 5: just now, like Robert Salah has turned this unit into

641
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 5: a fearsome beast. Like they are eighth in DVOA against

642
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 5: the run, and they're much better against the past than

643
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 5: they are against the run, and like since week six, actually,

644
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 5: like the Patriots also really good against the past, like

645
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 5: since week six in DVOA against the Pats against the pass,

646
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 5: Patriots are third and Jets are fourth. They're only behind

647
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 5: the Eagles and Broncos to other excellent pass defenses.

648
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 4: So this is going to be an absolute rock fight

649
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 4: of a game.

650
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 5: And like, I just don't think the Patriots are very good,

651
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 5: Like I don't think much of this offense. They can

652
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 5: run the ball a little, but you know, they don't

653
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 5: really stop the run. Well man, Like the big bet

654
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 5: here is the under, Like I want to get on

655
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 5: the under here, and I hit the under this morning.

656
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 5: I also did place a small bet on the Jets

657
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 5: this morning, Friedman, So yes, you're.

658
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 4: Right about that.

659
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, Like, I don't know, I guess we see this

660
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 5: game differently because I don't have a lot of respect

661
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 5: for the Patriots this year.

662
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 6: I will say I think Fits is he has more

663
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 6: conviction in his side than I do. In mind, like

664
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 6: I like, I can look at my power ratings and

665
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 6: know that I've probably been too slow to adjust the

666
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 6: Jets up, especially because of their defense, and to adjust

667
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 6: the Patriots down. Like like, I know I'm at risk

668
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 6: of that.

669
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: Fair enough, fair enough.

670
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: There's also the risk of the Jets believing the press

671
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: clippings a little bit too. I know they beat Buffalo

672
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: and that was a huge thing, and they've had a

673
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: whole week to think about how great they are, and

674
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: sometimes that could be a very dangerous thing for a

675
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: young team that's up and coming. I'm gonna lie on

676
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: the side of the Patriots, not because I'm a Patriots fan,

677
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, they're gonna play defense,

678
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 1: run the football in New England.

679
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 2: I think that's going to be enough for them to

680
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 2: do that.

681
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 1: If you had Breece Hall still I might feel differently

682
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: about this game, but they don't, so at the end

683
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: of the day, I think they'll get this in a

684
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: close one. But I would definitely go with the New

685
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: Engle Patriots in this one too. All right, let's go

686
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 1: with the Los Angeles Rams. Oh, things are not going

687
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: well for Sean McVeigh. Neither are they going very well

688
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: for New Orleans. They are three and seven. The Rams

689
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: are three and six. The Los Angeles Rams are going

690
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: to be three point road of dogs here. New Orleans

691
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 1: will be home favorites with the three thirty nine and

692
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: a half is the number, or you get minus one

693
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: ten if you like the Rams on The money line

694
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: fits with the uncertainty right now of the Cooper Cup situation.

695
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: I don't think we've gotten an update on it this morning.

696
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 1: I haven't seen one. If you have, please share, But

697
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: your thoughts here early on, is this one where we

698
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: just don't have enough information about Stafford and Cup to

699
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 1: do anything, or this is the perfect opportunity to make

700
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: a wager on this game, because if indeed we aren't

701
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 1: going to have Cooper Cup and maybe even that Stafford again,

702
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: this number could get larger, much quicker.

703
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 5: It's the latter, Joe, I seize that opportunity this morning

704
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 5: and bet the Saints here. And you know, while I

705
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 5: was looking at this game early morning, after doing a

706
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 5: lot of other stuff, I kind of forgot about the

707
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 5: Cooper Cup thing. And I was initially on the Rams

708
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 5: and then when I woke up this morning, I realized, Wait,

709
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 5: they're not gonna have Cooper Cup. All all the injury docs,

710
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 5: the sports injury docs, seem to think that at best,

711
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 5: Cooper Cup has a high ankle sprain.

712
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 4: So he is not going to play in this game.

713
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 5: There's like no chance this was not a cramp, Like

714
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 5: this is not something we find out. Oh he's fine,

715
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 5: he's gonna play, He's gonna be out. And what on

716
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 5: earth becomes of the Los Angeles Rams offense without Cooper Cup?

717
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 5: I mean, like he's their entire passing game. They haven't

718
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 5: been able to run the ball all year. Their last

719
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 5: and adjusted lineyards. They just can't knock anyone off the

720
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,959
Speaker 5: line of scrimmage. Their running backs are all terrible. Like

721
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 5: they are gonna have zero offense in this game, Like

722
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 5: you know the Saints. Friedman and I were both on

723
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 5: the Steelers yesterday, like that that wound up coming out

724
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 5: pretty well. They're not good And maybe they make the

725
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 5: move back to Jamis Winston this week. I'm kind of

726
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 5: anticipating that actually, but like I think a Jameis Winston

727
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 5: pick six is probably the Rams' best chance of putting

728
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 5: up points in this game.

729
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be all over the Saints.

730
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: All right. Your thoughts on this one, Freeman too.

731
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 1: This seems like a good early bet right now, because,

732
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: as Pow is saying, the idea of Cooper Cup playing

733
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 1: is game seems far fetched the best.

734
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree with it. I do not think that

735
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 6: Cooper Cup plays in this game. I do think Matthew

736
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 6: Stafford returns unless the concussion issue is more serious than

737
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 6: we were led to believe. But I don't really think

738
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 6: that's the case because they were still, you know, theoretically holding.

739
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 3: Out hope that he might be able to play this week.

740
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 6: But with the record, maybe they just decide to shut

741
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 6: him down and try to get everyone healthy for next year.

742
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 6: But that just doesn't feel like the way they're going

743
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 6: to do this. So I do think Cup is out.

744
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 6: I think Stafford returns, and I gotta say, if that

745
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 6: is the case, I am showing value on the Rams,

746
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 6: and I would this sounds so stupid. I would welcome

747
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 6: the idea to bet against James Winston as a favorite, Like, yes,

748
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 6: give me Winston as a favorite, and I will be

749
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 6: betting against him. Almost any time that I can. But

750
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 6: you know, I'm showing slight value, and it's a situation

751
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 6: where so much is unknown. I'm probably gonna wait to

752
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 6: see what happens and see if the line moves even more,

753
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 6: you know, because I mean, if Stafford is out, I'm

754
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 6: certainly not betting on the Rams at that point, and

755
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 6: we just don't know with his situation.

756
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to.

757
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: But then again, what is Stafford without Cooper cup I

758
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: guess he's a.

759
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 3: Guy who has Alan Robinson, which we know how much.

760
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: That's well, that's why I'm saying, maybe, no matter what,

761
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: we just go to the New Orleans side of this

762
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 1: game right away and lock it in. Let's go to

763
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. Three and six, back to back w's

764
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: for the Lions. They are on a winning streak. Yes,

765
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 1: a Detroit Lions are on a winning streak. They could

766
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: take on the New York Giants who are seven and two.

767
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 1: They are very much a playoff team right now, and

768
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 1: you can say.

769
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 2: Whatever you want. Brian day Ball fired up on the

770
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 2: sidelines yesterday after some silly mistakes. That was something to behold. Man.

771
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 2: I don't think I want Brian Daboll to go at me.

772
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: Let me tell you that guy looks ferocious. But we've

773
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: got three and a half point favorites here, the New

774
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 1: York Football Giants. Our forty six and a half is

775
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 1: the number plus one sixty five on the money line

776
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 1: if you like the Lions, Freeman. When we have the

777
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 1: New York Football Giants here, you have a team that

778
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: wants to run the full ball at sakuon Barkley, and

779
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 1: you have the Detroit Lions, who we all know defensively

780
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: have their warts. They have come up with a couple

781
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 1: of big victories here in the last two weeks. What

782
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,399
Speaker 1: do you think about this one though? Was there any

783
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: value here in the forty six and a half the

784
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: three and a half? Do you see anything here you

785
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: want to do? Or do you just want to wait

786
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: and just forget this game and go right to the

787
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: prop market instead?

788
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,760
Speaker 6: I bet this Detroit plus four in the look ahead market.

789
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 6: It's still three and a half in the early market.

790
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 6: I see value in that number. It's not that I

791
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 6: think this should be like all the way down to

792
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 6: a pick em or something, but you know, less than

793
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 6: a field goal.

794
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 2: I think there's value here, all right, Fitz, how about

795
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 2: you same for you.

796
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 4: Yeah. Oh and by the way, I know what you're

797
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 4: talking about, Joe.

798
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 5: It was I think third and short, and one of

799
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:48,479
Speaker 5: the giants had a false start on that. Oh yeah, man,

800
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 5: Davel went ballistic on the sidelos he was a cartoon character,

801
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 5: and then.

802
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 1: Came back for a second round of it, which was

803
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 1: even better. It's like he wasn't. I think you do

804
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: this as a parent. Sometimes your pall a kid does

805
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: something to yell at them, and then you realize how

806
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: stupid that thing was, and you go back the second

807
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: time and go do you rarely understand what you did?

808
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: Do you realize because you had some more time to

809
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 1: think about it, and then you go in for that

810
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: second one.

811
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 2: You know, la love you thought about?

812
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 6: This is just a little bit more. You have the

813
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 6: giants coming off of the bye I'm sure during that

814
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 6: bye week, like a point of emphasis was like we

815
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 6: need to eliminate the mental mistakes, you know, like and

816
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 6: you see a guy make a mental mistake on a

817
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 6: false start, like so, I'm sure that's what it was.

818
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 5: Like.

819
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 6: Hey man, we just spent fourteen days talking about not

820
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 6: beating ourselves up, and I actually I love it. I like,

821
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 6: I love seeing a coach who cares that much about discipline,

822
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 6: like about like, hey, let's not make because like you know,

823
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 6: I've en dured like the Jason Garrett era where it.

824
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 4: Was just like way too many mistakes like that.

825
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 2: And Garrett teams had so many penalties.

826
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: And you know what the funny part is too, I

827
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: think that's so indicative of a of a team that

828
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 1: has has shown you that they don't really have a

829
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: whole lot of talent on that. To take one, Barkley

830
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: is a great player, but you really can't afford to

831
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: make those mistakes. You can't afford to give up plays.

832
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 1: And you know, some teams can afford to do that,

833
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 1: like the Buffalo Bills. Okay, you go from third and

834
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: three to third and eight, Well, they're just gonna throw

835
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 1: all twenty yards down the field. And anyway it's Patrick Mahomes.

836
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: You know you can afford those mistakes.

837
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 2: You don't like them.

838
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: The Giants can't afford that. They don't have that kind

839
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: of offense. So they've all really bring some discipline there.

840
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 1: So that being said, anybody else here fits you got

841
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: any feelings about the Giants and Lions here early on?

842
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you said that, Joe.

843
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 5: They do not have a lot of margin for Eric

844
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 5: because they are limited on talent the Giants are and

845
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 5: Friedman and I have talked about how there is not

846
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 5: really a lot of respect in the betting markets for

847
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 5: the Giants, and I think we're in some ways maybe

848
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 5: seeing that here with you know, the Lions and a

849
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 5: team that has struggled to put away games themselves, and

850
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:51,720
Speaker 5: the Giants are only favored by three and a half

851
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 5: despite their record, But like, I see why they're not

852
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 5: getting that respect. They really struggled to put away the

853
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 5: Texans yesterday. And man, they are so one dimensional on offense,

854
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 5: like it was it was Saquon and like that passing

855
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 5: game is so limited, Like can they match firepower with

856
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 5: the Lions? Who, Yeah, they're the Lions, but they actually

857
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 5: do have some offensive firepower. Like I don't know, I'm

858
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 5: kind of right on the line here, but if I

859
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 5: play it, I'm gonna play Detroit.

860
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 2: Okay, let's go to Vegas and Denver. Oh, Vegas.

861
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be very long for Josh McDaniels. There

862
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: just doesn't doesn't feel like it. Two and seven here

863
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites, Denver is at home.

864
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: They need the Vegas Raiders to come in so they

865
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: could be favorites.

866
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 2: Look, I mean, I don't know what people expected in

867
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 2: that game.

868
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 1: If you didn't bet the under against the Titans and

869
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos, I don't know what kind of football you're

870
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: paying this had shoot this year, forty one and a

871
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: half is a number for this one plus one twenty

872
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 1: is Vegas on the money line. Look, Denver's got the

873
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: better d pad At the end of the day, I

874
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 1: think that's what's gonna win out here. And Vegas just

875
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 1: seems like a team that is in disarray a bit,

876
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: and all the injuries and all the losing, all that

877
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 1: just becomes contagious. I wonder if this two and a

878
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: half is actually not big enough. And I don't like Denver,

879
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 1: but like, I just got to wonder that.

880
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, if I bet it, I'm gonna bet Denver, Joe,

881
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 5: although I kind of just want to walk away from

882
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 5: this game. And by the way, man, there are some

883
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 5: unsightly games in Week eleven, Like it's an ugly week Jets, Patriots,

884
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 5: ram Saints, Commanders, Texans and go Unders.

885
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 2: You go straight down the line, do all the unders

886
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 2: and you see what comes up. I mean, that might

887
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 2: be an easy strategy. This week the Broncos ran Titans

888
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: and Packers. That could also be another one.

889
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Broncos ran eighty offensive plays against the Titans

890
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 5: and just barely cleared three hundred yards of offense. Like that,

891
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 5: that offense is looking really sickly. But their defense is legit,

892
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 5: and uh.

893
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,280
Speaker 4: The Raiders do not have a legit defense.

894
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 5: Like this is one of the best defenses in the

895
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 5: NFL versus one of the worst. So I'm going to

896
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,800
Speaker 5: play the defense, especially since you're getting that good defense

897
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 5: in a home game.

898
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:03,919
Speaker 3: Yeah.

899
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 5: As of like when I first took a pass at this,

900
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 5: like I didn't see a lot of value in this.

901
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 5: But like even as I talk about this now, I

902
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 5: think I have to bet, you know, especially if you

903
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 5: can get it at three or lasts.

904
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 4: Bet the Broncos.

905
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: Freeman deadver Vegas any foughts.

906
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 3: My number leans more towards Vegas.

907
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 6: But I hate it, and I will not bet it

908
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 6: until it gets to three, and it's already three in

909
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 6: some places, and I still don't want to bet it

910
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 6: because I could see it going to three and a half.

911
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 6: Like Josh McDaniels could get fired this week, Like I

912
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,439
Speaker 6: I think it's very possible. Yeah, there's a real chance

913
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 6: that happens. Like Derek Carr was crying in his press

914
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 6: conference yesterday, like this is this is a team that

915
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 6: feels like they have lost all sense of hope, and

916
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 6: that is not the kind of team I want to

917
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 6: be betting on.

918
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: A playoff team last year too, and I got a

919
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 1: playoff team that loved that coach that they played for.

920
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 1: It seemed like such a weird love fest. And the

921
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 1: fact that they moved on from Brescia, It's just I

922
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 1: don't know. Sometimes you just gotta go with what's working.

923
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, the Dallas Cowboys Minnesota

924
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:06,359
Speaker 1: Vikings are going to lock up here.

925
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 2: Six and three is Dallas.

926
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 1: The Minnesota Vikings moved to eight and one of the

927
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 1: Vikings though, if you can believe it, are two point

928
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 1: underdogs at home against the Cowboys.

929
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 2: Forty seven and a half is the number.

930
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: If you like Minnesota on the money line, and I

931
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: do at plus one ten, well, this is a good

932
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: opportunity for you. Your thoughts here on this one, Friedman,

933
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: the any surprise here, because I think the wrong team's

934
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: favored in this one too.

935
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's not a surprise, but you know, certainly what

936
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 6: we saw yesterday I think should change the way that

937
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 6: we are viewing these teams. Although I say that, okay, like, yeah, Dallas,

938
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 6: you know, going into Lambeau losing, you could see how

939
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 6: that happens. A lot of teams lose in Lambeau. It's

940
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 6: a hard place to play. And Okay, yes, the Vikings

941
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 6: they did win in miraculous fashion against the best team

942
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 6: in the league. And I still think the Bills are

943
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 6: probably the best team in the league. But you know,

944
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 6: it seems like every week the Vikings are getting like

945
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 6: Minneapolis miracles, right, And there's nothing in the underlying day.

946
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 6: There's nothing that you can like kind of parse to say, like, okay,

947
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 6: this is why in terms of like a coaching matchup,

948
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 6: like they're great and third and short or they're always

949
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 6: going for it and fourth downs, like, there's nothing that

950
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 6: you can pinpoint to say this is why they are

951
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 6: winning all of these one score games. So it feels

952
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 6: like a string of luck. But I mean, yeah, I've

953
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 6: adjusted the Vikings up because you have to do it,

954
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 6: because they're winning all of these games. They have a

955
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 6: good offense and seemingly they have an opportunistic defense. And

956
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 6: the Cowboys, yeah, they did lose against an inferior Packers

957
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 6: team in a game where they were head by two touchdowns.

958
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 6: You know, like, if you have the killer mentality, that's

959
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 6: a game that you win.

960
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 3: Uh So.

961
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 6: I am showing value on the Vikings here. I think

962
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 6: this should still be Cowboys favored, but favored by one.

963
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 6: I think this line is going to move down towards

964
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 6: the Vikings. And so if you like the Vikings, I

965
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 6: think you bet it now.

966
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you bet it outright.

967
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:08,800
Speaker 1: You like the Vikings, you just go right to the

968
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: plus one ten there, get the plus money, lock it in.

969
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:11,879
Speaker 2: That's it.

970
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 1: Losing is contagious. We just talked about the Raiders. Winning

971
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: is contagious too, Friedman, I mean Fits, and I think

972
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 1: that actually both of you, I'm gonna tell both of

973
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: you winnings contagious. No, but seriously, Fits, I mean you

974
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: look at this. I mean I don't know what's gonna

975
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: take for us to buy you into Minnesota a little bit.

976
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 1: Sometimes some teams just have that thing. And for a

977
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 1: team last year that struggled mightily in those close games,

978
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 1: they're winning these close games, and that makes a huge

979
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 1: mental difference because you start to believe you're going to

980
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 1: and if this is a close game again and this

981
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: one's at home, I'm going on the Viking side.

982
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:41,720
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?

983
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I'm so torn here, Joe, because like

984
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 5: I've been telling you guys, I've been telling Friedman on

985
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:50,359
Speaker 5: the Sunday morning live streams that the Vikings have been

986
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 5: living a lie and like skating by and like beating

987
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 5: mostly bad teams until yesterday, like the Dolphins were the

988
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 5: only decent team, the only team with the winning record

989
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,439
Speaker 5: they've beaten on this current winning streak. But like, man,

990
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 5: there is something about this team, like really resiliently.

991
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 4: Look at what happened yesterday.

992
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 5: Justin Jefferson had to make one of the greatest catches

993
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 5: of all time. Then they stuffed Kirk Cousins at the

994
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 5: goal line, and then like you know, Buffalo completely botches

995
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 5: a QB sneak, Like they just could not put away.

996
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 5: The Vikings were like the killer in a slasher movie,

997
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 5: like it was Halloween, the knitting needle in the neck coat,

998
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,239
Speaker 5: hangar in the eye. They just like kept coming, you know,

999
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 5: like you could not kill the Vikings yesterday. It was

1000
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 5: it was Michael Myers man. So the Vikings did kind

1001
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 5: of win my respect a little bit with that performance.

1002
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 5: But on the other hand, like, this is exactly the

1003
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 5: sort of spot where I want to bat Dallas, a team,

1004
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 5: a good team coming off a tough loss that probably

1005
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:56,760
Speaker 5: has them pretty pissed off today, going against the fat

1006
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 5: and happy team that just won again they had no

1007
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 5: business winning. And like, man, that is a formula I

1008
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:07,720
Speaker 5: love betting and have been, you know, very successful betting

1009
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 5: over the years. Like take the hungry, angry team coming

1010
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 5: off the loss, the good team against the fat and

1011
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 5: happy team coming off the win. So, man, I still

1012
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:19,919
Speaker 5: have to come to grips with where I am right now,

1013
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 5: Like I can't. I'm I'm too Joe. I'm showing value

1014
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 5: on the Vikings. But I don't want to bet the

1015
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:25,399
Speaker 5: Vikings here.

1016
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:27,919
Speaker 2: It's okay to believe, It's okay to love again.

1017
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: The Pittsburgh Steelers three and six are five point home

1018
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals five and four coming off

1019
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 1: of buy Now, You're not going to get Chase back

1020
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 1: in this game. But the Pittsburgh Steelers did get TJ. Watt,

1021
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: who makes a big difference. He played eighty percent of

1022
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 1: the defensive snaps there, more than I thought he was

1023
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 1: going to. Forty two and a half is the number

1024
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 1: if you like Pittsburgh to win out right, it's plus

1025
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 1: one eighty five fits. I see some value here on

1026
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh side. I think I'm on Pittsburgh all the

1027
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 1: way here because they can get to the quarterback now

1028
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 1: that TJ. Watt is back, and when you can do that,

1029
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 1: good things happen, especially that suspects Cincinnati Bengals offensive line.

1030
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 1: Imagine the Bengals pull this one out. But I like

1031
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 1: this five is a good number. What are your thoughts?

1032
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, they needed Watt badly because they had the third

1033
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 5: worst pressure rates in the league.

1034
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 2: Zero.

1035
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, they just did not have much of a pass

1036
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:14,959
Speaker 5: rush without Watt, so.

1037
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:16,320
Speaker 4: Getting him back is huge.

1038
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 5: And Joe Burrow's been the second most sacked quarterback behind

1039
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 5: only justin Fields. He's gone down thirty times this year.

1040
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 5: And it just like the Steelers beat the Bengals way

1041
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 5: back in Week one. That feels like forever ago, but

1042
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 5: twenty three to twenty in the opener. My one concern

1043
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 5: here is that Kenny Pickett has been really bad and

1044
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 5: he looks he looks really bad.

1045
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I just.

1046
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 5: Can they match firepower against Joe Burrow with Kenny Pickett, Like,

1047
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 5: that's my concern here. So man, I'm showing a little

1048
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 5: bit of value with Pittsburgh, but I don't know if

1049
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 5: I can bet on Kenny Pickett against Joe Burrow.

1050
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 2: But Joe Burrow struggled in Pittsburgh before. We've seen that.

1051
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 1: Even I want to say, last year, if memory serves too,

1052
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 1: didn't they drop a game to Pittsburgh in Hinsfield when

1053
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 1: it was still Hinsfield. I could be wrong, but I

1054
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,240
Speaker 1: remember one of these games where he looked at me like, Wow,

1055
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 1: the Steelers just beat the Bengals. But for even your

1056
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 1: thoughts here, because again, even if if Canny Pickkett struggles,

1057
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: you have to imagine that there's an opportunity here for

1058
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: them to keep this game at least within range. Do

1059
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: you think they can or maybe you're on the complete

1060
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 1: opposite of this.

1061
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this projected at five and a half.

1062
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 6: And I'll say, like, I hate betting against Mike Tomlin

1063
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 6: when he's an underdog, especially when he's an underdog at home.

1064
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:32,319
Speaker 6: That's like his smash spot and we saw it yesterday right, Like,

1065
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 6: he just he crushes in that spot. And he also

1066
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 6: does well as a dog in Division two. So it's

1067
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 6: like this Vin diagram of all of the Tomlin smash spots,

1068
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 6: and it's just I'm showing value on the other side.

1069
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 3: I think this line will move up.

1070
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 6: I've been working on a expected points metric for Fantasy,

1071
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 6: and for the past four weeks, like all of the

1072
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 6: Bengals are just crushing in that metric, like Joe Mixon dominating,

1073
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,879
Speaker 6: Joe Burrow dominating you know, Jamar Chase not in this game,

1074
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 6: but he's been dominating T Higgins.

1075
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 3: Like, I think this is too much.

1076
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 6: You have the the Bengals coming off of the bye

1077
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 6: and they looked great heading into the buy.

1078
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 3: So I'm I'm on the Bengals in the.

1079
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 6: Spot primarily because I do see value, but also I

1080
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 6: think the line is just going to continue to move

1081
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 6: towards them.

1082
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 1: Okay, if it moves continuously towards them, then I will

1083
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 1: continue to bet the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let's go to Kansas

1084
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:30,760
Speaker 1: City and Los Angeles Chargers. Kansasity seven point road favorites.

1085
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes playing like an MVP certainly going to be

1086
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: down Jujusim Schuster though.

1087
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 2: For some time.

1088
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: We'll see how long fifty is the number for this one, Freeman.

1089
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 1: Any early value on this one? Do you want to lock

1090
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 1: in this seven?

1091
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 3: I think so.

1092
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 6: I've projected for seven and a half. I bet it

1093
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 6: at five and a half in the look ahead market,

1094
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:50,760
Speaker 6: because that's just that number on its face just seemed

1095
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 6: way too low. But even at seven, you know, it

1096
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 6: is the key number. I have it at seven and

1097
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 6: a half, So I do think there's a little bit

1098
00:48:57,880 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 6: of value there, all right, Fitz?

1099
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 2: How about you? You?

1100
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:02,919
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1101
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 5: I mean I I kind of like the Chargers in

1102
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 5: this one, like you really yeah. When we saw the

1103
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,280
Speaker 5: Chiefs play the Chargers in Week two in that Thursday

1104
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 5: night game, the Chiefs won twenty seven to twenty four,

1105
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 5: and they needed a ninety nine yard interception return early

1106
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 5: in the fourth.

1107
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:22,479
Speaker 4: Quarter to pull that out.

1108
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 5: Like the Chargers thoroughly outplayed the Chiefs like man, and

1109
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 5: I was as impressed by a losing team in that

1110
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 5: game as you know I have been pretty much all year.

1111
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 5: And the Chargers turn in another really good effort on

1112
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 5: Sunday night against the forty nine Ers only to come

1113
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 5: up on the losing end.

1114
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 4: So, like, I think this is too much.

1115
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 5: I mean, I know that there is not a big

1116
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 5: home field advantage in so far, like it's that home

1117
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 5: field advantage is probably worth like less than two points, but.

1118
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 4: This just feels tall to me.

1119
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 1: I'm the only difference is they had Mike Williams in

1120
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 1: that game and he had eight catches.

1121
00:49:57,719 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 2: For one thirteen the touchdown.

1122
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 4: Yeah Williams.

1123
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1124
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 5: They might be the next week and they might. You know,

1125
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 5: it's possible to get him back. It's possible to get

1126
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 5: Keenan Allen back. I mean, I kind of don't want

1127
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 5: to bet it until we know more, but part of

1128
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 5: me wants to just grab it now.

1129
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 6: I'm gonna take this under on those guys playing, and

1130
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 6: you have Gerald Everett who left with a groin injury

1131
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 6: last night, so like all three of those guys could

1132
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 6: be out.

1133
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:23,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a problem.

1134
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 1: I would jump on this seven now if I was

1135
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:29,359
Speaker 1: people personally. San Francisco forty nine ers Arizona Cardinals here

1136
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:32,320
Speaker 1: last one San Francisco seven and a half point road favorites.

1137
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 1: Right now, forty five is the number plus one ninety

1138
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 1: if you like the Arizona Cardinals on the money line?

1139
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 2: Fits your thoughts on this? Any value you see here

1140
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 2: early on?

1141
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:40,920
Speaker 3: Ok?

1142
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I'm I like the I like the

1143
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 5: Niners about a half a point of value there, Like,

1144
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 5: I just don't think much of this Arizona team, even

1145
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 5: though they were able to be at a totally toothless,

1146
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 5: crippled Rams team yesterday. Like I just yeah, I'm all

1147
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 5: over the Niners.

1148
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,200
Speaker 1: There you go, toothless and crippled. Your thoughts for he'd

1149
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 1: been on this one? Any early value for you?

1150
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1151
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 6: So this number is actually at seven and a half now,

1152
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 6: and man, I'm showing some theoretical value on the Cardinals,

1153
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:12,239
Speaker 6: but it's not as if I want to bet this

1154
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:16,720
Speaker 6: and this this is the Mexico City game, I believe,

1155
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:21,360
Speaker 6: so interesting situation there. You do not have the Cardinals

1156
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 6: at home, you know, kind of the neutral site game

1157
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 6: for both of these teams. But seven and a half.

1158
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 6: I would be tempted to take the Cardinals, but I

1159
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 6: haven't done it yet.

1160
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I forgot it. I forgot this one was the

1161
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 5: Mexico City game. So that that kind of makes me

1162
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 5: not like the forty. This is just going to be

1163
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 5: a walkaway game for me.

1164
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 2: All right, So.

1165
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:46,720
Speaker 1: There you have before we walk away recap real quick fits.

1166
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,919
Speaker 1: What are your favorite look ahead things really quick before

1167
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 1: we get out of here.

1168
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 5: Oh man, I'm all over that Jets Patriots game. I

1169
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 5: like the Jets, I like the under and I think

1170
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 5: I like the Chargers against the Chiefs. Believe it or not,

1171
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 5: I'm flying in the face of free with two of

1172
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:01,360
Speaker 5: these fast.

1173
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,320
Speaker 2: Fats Kenn He just loves it. We gotta get that

1174
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 2: on a shirt.

1175
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 1: I love the Titans and the Steelers early on here,

1176
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: I'm locking in those bad boys. Your thoughts, Freeman, one

1177
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 1: of your favorite early look aheads for week eleven?

1178
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,359
Speaker 6: Yeah, I still like Chicago at plus three and I

1179
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 6: like Detroit at plus three and a half.

1180
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 2: All right, there you have it.

1181
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 1: Don't forget everybody, go download that bet mgm app the

1182
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 1: king of sportsbooks today, start making your wagers, and don't

1183
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 1: forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel as well at

1184
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 1: Betting Pros and click that little belt till it goes

1185
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 1: ding for notifications.

1186
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:29,359
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us.

1187
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Matthew

1188
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 1: Freeman and Pat Bits Morris.

1189
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 2: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,