Speaker 1: Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve cameray.
Speaker 1: It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology with
Speaker 1: tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there, everyone,
Speaker 1: and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poette,
Speaker 1: and I am the tech editor here at how stuff
Speaker 1: works dot com. Sitting across from me, as usual, is
Speaker 1: senior writer Jonathan Strickland. I predict this will be an
Speaker 1: awesome episode. I predict you said something nearly the same
Speaker 1: thing last week. I think I predicted it was going
Speaker 1: to be the best episode ever. All right, well, let's
Speaker 1: start this off with a little listener mail. This listener
Speaker 1: mail comes from Kyle, who is and I quote, our
Speaker 1: biggest seventh grade fan, so perhaps he's nine ft tall.
Speaker 1: Because Hi, guys, I recently subscribed to the tech Stuff podcast,
Speaker 1: and of the other two I've subscrip right too, this
Speaker 1: is my absolute favorite. Thanks Kyle. This morning and over
Speaker 1: the weekend, I was listening to some podcasts and listen
Speaker 1: to your tech predictions for two thousand nine. I was
Speaker 1: wondering if you, guys, like you said in the podcast,
Speaker 1: could update your list and say what happened and did
Speaker 1: not happen keep up the great work. And Kyle's from
Speaker 1: conquered California, and so we already did o our rundown
Speaker 1: where uh, somehow you ended up with all these chech Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: that was crazy. I'm hoping that maybe maybe this year,
Speaker 1: this coming year, uh, you'll maybe get a check mark.
Speaker 1: I mean it'll be I mean, we'll see. We'll see
Speaker 1: after I finish telling up the marks next year. But
Speaker 1: we since we already went through what our predictions were
Speaker 1: last time, we're gonna make new predictions for two thousand ten.
Speaker 1: Now when we're recording this, it is still two thousand nine.
Speaker 1: I'm assuming that it will probably publish before the first
Speaker 1: of two thousand ten, but I don't know for sure,
Speaker 1: because we do record these ahead of time, and uh,
Speaker 1: as we did last year, we we took some that
Speaker 1: were pretty pretty well educated guesses, you know, we figured
Speaker 1: would be reasonably likely to happen, and then we sort
Speaker 1: of went out on a limb on a few teams.
Speaker 1: So I'm trying to do a little bit of a
Speaker 1: mix some of the really like big big ones, Like
Speaker 1: I hope this isn't stealing one of yours about cloud
Speaker 1: computing being big. I mean that's that's almost a gimme,
Speaker 1: like cloud computing being big, or smartphones will continue to
Speaker 1: be popular. Those are kind of like those aren't predictions.
Speaker 1: That's that's obvious to to anybody really, So um, we're
Speaker 1: trying to avoid those as much as possible, although I
Speaker 1: think some of mine may fall into the lame category.
Speaker 1: Um and uh, maybe you'll get a checkmark for this,
Speaker 1: pett I'm gonna we already know that I have more
Speaker 1: predictions written down than be lett Us. I'm you know,
Speaker 1: I'm I came up with some during the podcast last year,
Speaker 1: and I might come up with That's not a criticism
Speaker 1: to you, Bullett. Know what I'm in What mean to
Speaker 1: say is that because I have more and you have fewer. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm going to have you go first because it may
Speaker 1: be one of the ones that I use, and that
Speaker 1: way I still have something I can choose from. Right,
Speaker 1: But if I use one of the ones you use,
Speaker 1: then you're rapidly up the creek. Okay, so you can
Speaker 1: go first at my first prediction, I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: one of the most uh hot um news items of
Speaker 1: right of the time as of right this minute when
Speaker 1: we're recording, is and I predict that Apple will in
Speaker 1: fact release something, whether or not it is the tablet
Speaker 1: quote unquote tablet. But I have this feeling they're going
Speaker 1: to come out with a larger iPod iPhone style device
Speaker 1: that people are calling the Apple tablet right now, um,
Speaker 1: because there's just too much information about this non existent
Speaker 1: product that has been pushed back that hasn't even been
Speaker 1: announced yet as of this recording. I think they will
Speaker 1: come out with something, and I think it will sell well.
Speaker 1: But here's the prediction part. I don't think it's going
Speaker 1: to sell as well as people thought from all the
Speaker 1: hype interest Well, you know, we thought it was gonna
Speaker 1: sell I'm making a number up here. This is not
Speaker 1: really the prediction, like million copies and the I only sold,
Speaker 1: you know, sixteen million. Okay. I think it's going to
Speaker 1: be successful, but not wild interesting. So so I also
Speaker 1: had in my predictions that Apple would come out with
Speaker 1: a tablet device. Some people are calling it the iPad,
Speaker 1: I don't know, just call it Apple tablet. That in general,
Speaker 1: we know that it's supposed to be a like a
Speaker 1: ten inch screen device of some sort, which is much
Speaker 1: larger than an iPod Touch or I I iPhone. So
Speaker 1: but it is not like a clamshell style computer. More
Speaker 1: like it won't have a keyboard. It would have its
Speaker 1: own like touch screen interface. Because we agree that. That's
Speaker 1: why I agree that's going to launch. Now, I said
Speaker 1: that's going to launch, but it's gonna tank. Really, so
Speaker 1: you think it's gonna tank out right? Well, if the
Speaker 1: predictions are correct and it's going to be marketed for
Speaker 1: a thou and dollars a pop, that's a lot of
Speaker 1: money to ask for a specialized gadget. I mean how
Speaker 1: specialized it is. I think it's going to be more
Speaker 1: of a computing device. Yeah, but you can buy a
Speaker 1: computer for less than that, and you can have buy
Speaker 1: a computer for lesson that has a keyboard, and you
Speaker 1: can buy an Apple computer for that same price that
Speaker 1: has a keyboard. We'll see. I mean, no, granted, Steve Jobs,
Speaker 1: he's amazing at convincing you that you want what he
Speaker 1: has to sell, so maybe he'll prove me wrong, but
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to do well. Alright. Well,
Speaker 1: so there's a prediction where we had a fundamental disagreement,
Speaker 1: which is awesome because that means one of us is
Speaker 1: going to get a check mark, and one of us
Speaker 1: is going to get an next I think I know
Speaker 1: who it will be if I'm the one gig score.
Speaker 1: So let me go ahead and make my next prediction. Now,
Speaker 1: this one, this one's a total gimme. Two thousand ten
Speaker 1: will be the year of the e reader. Okay, so
Speaker 1: kindall has been out for a couple of years. The
Speaker 1: Nook has well saying the Nook has come out as
Speaker 1: probably being a little ambitious. The Knook is on sale, Uh,
Speaker 1: it'll start shipping any day now, really honestly, but the
Speaker 1: Sony e reader has been out for a while. I'm
Speaker 1: guessing that at c E s and two thousand and ten,
Speaker 1: which it happens in the first week of January in
Speaker 1: two thou um and I will be heading down there. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm guessing that CS is going to have uh, several
Speaker 1: more electronic reading devices on display from different manufacturers. I
Speaker 1: think two thousand ten is when the e reader form
Speaker 1: factor really comes into its own, and we're probably gonna
Speaker 1: see some pretty hefty competition between several different developers, and
Speaker 1: then maybe maybe even by the end of the year,
Speaker 1: we'll start seeing some real front runners to see who's
Speaker 1: gonna dominate that space right now. Amazon Kindle's got a
Speaker 1: huge head start. I Uh, this wasn't in my predictions,
Speaker 1: But I disagree with you. I think we have another
Speaker 1: year before that happens. So you think you think it
Speaker 1: won't be until two thousand eleven before the readers really
Speaker 1: become a big thing. And then I based that on
Speaker 1: Gartner and their hype index. The industry analysts says that
Speaker 1: there is a a trough of disillusionment coming for the
Speaker 1: e reader, um, and then it will settle out and
Speaker 1: actually become successful. But at this point they predict that
Speaker 1: there's going to be some more times. I'm saying I
Speaker 1: base it on the fact that my mom called me
Speaker 1: to ask me which one would be better for my dad,
Speaker 1: the Kindle or the Nook. Okay, which you know when
Speaker 1: my when your mom calls you to ask you, you
Speaker 1: know it's a big thing. Okay, Alright, you want another
Speaker 1: hot trending topic right now? The Google phone the Nexus one. Um,
Speaker 1: we already we already sort of agree on this. I
Speaker 1: think based on our Tech Stuff Live broadcast of earlier,
Speaker 1: that it will actually come out and be a consumer device.
Speaker 1: I think, um, but I think it's gonna go with
Speaker 1: T Mobile. I think you're gonna pocket to T Mobile. Again,
Speaker 1: that's sort of a gimme based on the FCC filing,
Speaker 1: but that was also one of my predictions. And I
Speaker 1: didn't specify the carrier, but I said it would come
Speaker 1: out and it would be locked. It's gonna be locked,
Speaker 1: so yeah, we'll I'm in total total agreement with you there.
Speaker 1: But Lett, I think that the Nexus one or whatever
Speaker 1: it is called, when it eventually becomes a consumer phone,
Speaker 1: I think it will be locked down to a single carrier. Um.
Speaker 1: I also think that I will probably want one. I
Speaker 1: think so too, because I've got the g one and
Speaker 1: I love it, so all right, that's a good prediction.
Speaker 1: I like that. Um. I say that in two thousand
Speaker 1: and ten, the iPod Touch, the next generation will have
Speaker 1: a camera. Okay, we expected that this past year at
Speaker 1: the event, and it didn't happen. I think it's from
Speaker 1: what I understand, it sounds like the reason why it
Speaker 1: didn't happen was supply chain issues. That the chips weren't
Speaker 1: quite right, the sensors weren't quite right, and it wasn't
Speaker 1: gonna fit within the iPod iPod Touch um form factor.
Speaker 1: So but I do predict that they will fix that
Speaker 1: problem and that sometime in two thousand ten we will
Speaker 1: start seeing iPod touches that have cameras in them. All right, then,
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see
Speaker 1: that they're kind of gimme. I was going with a
Speaker 1: this isn't really as as gimme ish um, and it's
Speaker 1: related to my last one. I think that T Mobile
Speaker 1: is going to end up in a merger with somebody
Speaker 1: over the next year. M hmm. There was talk for
Speaker 1: a while about the T Mobile sprint thing, which sounds
Speaker 1: to me like it's not gonna happen now, and T
Speaker 1: Mobile and UH and A T and T were rumored
Speaker 1: for a bit, and actually some of the smaller carriers
Speaker 1: umored to be you know, can as part of a deal.
Speaker 1: So team makes a little more sense just because they
Speaker 1: both run on the same they're both rely on the
Speaker 1: same three G technology. I want to say that now.
Speaker 1: I'm not questioning whether or not, but I know that
Speaker 1: I've seen a couple of rumors swirling around. I think
Speaker 1: it's actually going to happen in because I think the uh,
Speaker 1: the Nexus one is going to be popular enough where
Speaker 1: they're gonna need more network. So otherwise about how big
Speaker 1: you're gonna start seeing something like T mobile experiencing the
Speaker 1: same sort of problems and pr disaster that a T
Speaker 1: and T has had to field in two thousand nine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: because I do think the nextest one will be popular.
Speaker 1: All right, well, um uh, here's here's one that's gonna
Speaker 1: bum out our gamers friends. I think that two thousand
Speaker 1: and ten will come and go with yet another year
Speaker 1: where there is no announcement of a future console from
Speaker 1: either Sony or Microsoft. I don't think we're gonna hear
Speaker 1: about the PS four. I don't think we're gonna hear
Speaker 1: about the Xbox seven, twenty or whatever you want to
Speaker 1: call them next year. The reason for that is because
Speaker 1: they are still developing uh some pretty high end accessories
Speaker 1: for those devices, like the Sony Wand and Project at all. Uh.
Speaker 1: Those things kind of suggest to me that that the
Speaker 1: companies are planning on extending the lifetimes of these consoles
Speaker 1: for a few more years. And it would be um
Speaker 1: Dutch mental to go ahead and announce the successor to
Speaker 1: those systems, because you would really hurt the sales of
Speaker 1: your peripherals. If everyone's thinking, well, I want to hold
Speaker 1: off until the next generation console comes up, because what
Speaker 1: if it's not compatible? What if these peripherals don't aren't
Speaker 1: compatible with the new system. So I, uh you know,
Speaker 1: that was that was the thing I was trying to
Speaker 1: think of. This is one of the reasons I have
Speaker 1: fewer uh predictions this year, is because I was trying
Speaker 1: to think of something for gaming, and this is sort
Speaker 1: of a non prediction. I don't know that I see
Speaker 1: anything big happening on the gaming front anyway, because we
Speaker 1: had so many big announcements. The biggest thing I could
Speaker 1: see is if Nintendo came out with something, because Nintendo
Speaker 1: is starting to kind of do Yeah, they're starting to well,
Speaker 1: they're starting to feel the slow down to the we
Speaker 1: the we mania is starting to slowly uh fade away.
Speaker 1: And so it may be that we hear an announcement
Speaker 1: in two thousand ten of a new Nintendo console. Now
Speaker 1: I don't think it would be available in two thousand ten,
Speaker 1: and two thousand eleven would be the earliest see it,
Speaker 1: but we might get a hint, like maybe a teaser
Speaker 1: at E three or something. Okay, so, um, is it
Speaker 1: my turn? That was too much of a gimme, I
Speaker 1: must skip that one. Um, I think Apple is indeed
Speaker 1: going to embrace the La La method and go with
Speaker 1: a music rental program. So you're gonna have like some
Speaker 1: sort of streaming service on on iTunes where you know,
Speaker 1: basically pay lower fee and you know, all you can
Speaker 1: eat type stuff as long as you're subscribing. I would
Speaker 1: love to see that happen. I don't know if that's
Speaker 1: gonna happen or not, but I want that prediction to
Speaker 1: be true. So well, a lot of people, a lot
Speaker 1: of people are betting that you're you know, if you're
Speaker 1: betting against me, that you would win because the model
Speaker 1: wasn't working. La La was one of many that was
Speaker 1: sort of struggling to make money. And uh, you know,
Speaker 1: but I don't know. I mean, I don't know how
Speaker 1: many people were really familiar with lat and it's and
Speaker 1: it's model, and uh, Apple's got a lot more marketing
Speaker 1: muscle that it can use, so and I don't know,
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna happen. Well, here's here's one where
Speaker 1: I'm sticking my neck way out. I predict that in
Speaker 1: two thousand and ten, the large Hadron collider will either
Speaker 1: uncover evidence of the Higgs boasting particle or something even
Speaker 1: more bizarre. Okay, So in other words, scientists will tell
Speaker 1: you that UM often will tell you that sometimes they
Speaker 1: don't want to find what they expect to find, because
Speaker 1: if you find what you expect to find, all it
Speaker 1: does is confirm your hypothesis, and you don't learn anything more.
Speaker 1: You just confirm something. If you find something you don't
Speaker 1: expect to find, that means there's something new that you
Speaker 1: don't know, and it's fun to learn that. I think
Speaker 1: these people are crazy, but I think it does mean
Speaker 1: that the the collisions in the LHC will probably generate
Speaker 1: something that will either lead scientists to to definitively state
Speaker 1: whether or not the Higgs Boston particle exists, or if
Speaker 1: there's something even more unusual that we have not thought
Speaker 1: of yet that actually explains why matter has mass. There's
Speaker 1: a rabbit in a clown wig playing on harmonica. We
Speaker 1: never expected to find that, Right turkey in the straw?
Speaker 1: Who who had turkey and the straw? Alright betting pool,
Speaker 1: who had turned turkey in the straw? Nice? Okay, this
Speaker 1: is this is a little bit out there too. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure they're ready to do it, But I'm gonna
Speaker 1: there's there's something I saw on the news today about
Speaker 1: the Paramount studios trying a a pay for streaming clips things.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna say that UH movie studios are going
Speaker 1: to go ahead and start dipping their toes into the
Speaker 1: UH downloadable movie pool. Maybe it's just a rental thing,
Speaker 1: but I think that some of them are going to
Speaker 1: get on that UM themselves and find ways to make
Speaker 1: that work. UM. Maybe that's going to be through the
Speaker 1: the Comcast acquisition of NBC Universal. UM. You know, now
Speaker 1: that they've got content and infrastructure together in one spot,
Speaker 1: they'll have total control over that. I don't know, but
Speaker 1: I think I think it's gonna start happening when they
Speaker 1: finally reluctantly go Okay, maybe we'll let you view this
Speaker 1: sun and streaming basis. And I don't know if they'll
Speaker 1: go for it or not, but I think they're going
Speaker 1: to try it like full length content. I wouldn't expect
Speaker 1: it in January one, right. I have a similar prediction
Speaker 1: in that I think that in two thousand and ten,
Speaker 1: will we'll start to see the UM the the pay
Speaker 1: part of of a Murdock's plan for Hulu's has come
Speaker 1: into play cratch that went off my list. Well, that
Speaker 1: was very, very similar to the one you were just mentioning.
Speaker 1: It was gonna be my next So I paid tier
Speaker 1: paid tier for Hulu. Now, even back when when uh
Speaker 1: Fox executives were talking about the possibility of of making
Speaker 1: a paid tear in Hulu, they did say that there
Speaker 1: would still be content that would be freely accessible. So
Speaker 1: probably still what ads supported, I would guess, or or
Speaker 1: advertisement supported, but there there would be some content that
Speaker 1: you would have to pay to access. Now, personally, I
Speaker 1: think if they kept it at the five trailing episodes model,
Speaker 1: but if you paid extra you could get access to
Speaker 1: older episodes. That would be awesome because then you'd be like,
Speaker 1: if you're like me and you suddenly say, oh my gosh,
Speaker 1: it's seven weeks into twenty four and I totally forgot
Speaker 1: because they don't have a TV anymore, Um, let me
Speaker 1: go to Hulu. And then you look at Hulu and
Speaker 1: you can only go back as far as episode three
Speaker 1: and up. Then you're stuck, well, what happened in the
Speaker 1: first two hours. That's when Jack Bauer really kicks. But
Speaker 1: because it's before he's been beat up, and he spends
Speaker 1: the rest of the season slowly recovering. UM. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: I'm hoping that that's the way that paid here takes form,
Speaker 1: but I honestly don't know. All Right, Well, that was
Speaker 1: one for both of us, so let's I'll go ahead
Speaker 1: do a different one for me. UM. I think that
Speaker 1: this is gonna be the year where we actually start
Speaker 1: seeing wireless high definition components hit the consumer market. Now
Speaker 1: we've seen we've seen these things at c e S
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. Actually back in two thousand seven,
Speaker 1: I saw these and they've been at ce S probably
Speaker 1: before that. That was the first c S I went to. Now,
Speaker 1: what we're talking about here are devices like UM, like
Speaker 1: Blu ray players or high definition DVRs or whatever that
Speaker 1: can transmit signals wirelessly to a a similarly enabled television.
Speaker 1: And there are several different competing standards that are trying
Speaker 1: to become the standard or high definition wireless data transmission. UH.
Speaker 1: Two of those would be White Gig made by the
Speaker 1: White Gig Alliance and UM W h D I I am,
Speaker 1: which is UH. I forget what that acronym stands for.
Speaker 1: I remember it's like high definition something or other. I'm awesome,
Speaker 1: aren't they? But anyway, that's the point being that these
Speaker 1: technologies have been around for a while, but we haven't
Speaker 1: seen anything beyond the prototype stage. I think in two
Speaker 1: thousand ten, maybe by the holiday season of two thousands tens,
Speaker 1: so we're talking about almost a full year from now,
Speaker 1: we'll start seeing, Uh, these devices hit the market so
Speaker 1: that you could you could suddenly have a home theater
Speaker 1: that doesn't have to have cables connecting the various components together.
Speaker 1: I mean, you still need a power chord, but you
Speaker 1: wouldn't have to have a chord that goes between your
Speaker 1: Blu ray player and your television. Yeah, all right, that
Speaker 1: was that was my next one. UM here's what I
Speaker 1: I just thought up on the fly based only on that. UM,
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see the first um LTE infrastructure
Speaker 1: in the United states're starting to see it. I think
Speaker 1: I think Stockholm is getting one right now. So it's
Speaker 1: it is. They are being built overseas all ready. So yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that makes sense to me. UM. I actually had
Speaker 1: on as one of mine. As we would see the
Speaker 1: war between the War of the four G technologies, which
Speaker 1: right now, I'm thinking mainly why Max and LTE Although
Speaker 1: those are not the only two, those are the two
Speaker 1: front runners. What's the The whole thing is that there
Speaker 1: is y max available in several cities now and they're
Speaker 1: Max customers, so yes, And there are many people who
Speaker 1: are many people, many companies who are currently offering three
Speaker 1: G services who have said that they want to offer
Speaker 1: lt Well, honestly, they can't afford to wait too much longer.
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the economy being what it is kind
Speaker 1: of puts a damper on some of their plans. But
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to start rolling some of the stuff
Speaker 1: out if they want to compete, because wy max is
Speaker 1: going to eat their lunch if they wait too much longer, right,
Speaker 1: they will drink their milkshake. Yes, that's a reference that
Speaker 1: you don't get because you have not seen there will
Speaker 1: be blood, that's correct. At any rate, White Gig is
Speaker 1: or I'm sorry, why max is currently drinking LTEs milkshake?
Speaker 1: And uh yeah. As these as these networks get built out,
Speaker 1: we'll start seeing more devices that can take advantage of it. Currently,
Speaker 1: most devices require an additional piece of hardware in order
Speaker 1: to interface with these technologies. For example, my laptop computer
Speaker 1: has a WiFi H receiver built into it, but it
Speaker 1: does not have a y max receiver. And they are
Speaker 1: two different technologies running on two different frequencies, so you
Speaker 1: can't use one for the other. Uh So, in order
Speaker 1: to use my laptop with my y max service, I
Speaker 1: have to either connect directly to my y max modem,
Speaker 1: or I have to have a little dongle that can
Speaker 1: pick up the it's essentially an antenna that can pick
Speaker 1: up the signal. Or there is one other option. You
Speaker 1: can connect your modem to a wireless router, converting the
Speaker 1: signal to WiFi, and then pick it up through your
Speaker 1: WiFi receiver. But I think that once these these networks
Speaker 1: get built out, we'll see devices with those technologies built
Speaker 1: directly into the device, even things like phones. We'll start
Speaker 1: seeing phones on the four gene networks. So yeah, um,
Speaker 1: all right, Well that one was yours. So I guess
Speaker 1: it's my turn again. How many more do you have?
Speaker 1: I have one more? One more? Okay, so well I'll
Speaker 1: do one more. You do one more, and then I'll
Speaker 1: do my caper. Okay, okay, so let me see, let
Speaker 1: me see what I've got um, oh, here's mine. Palm
Speaker 1: goes under because the pre did not do well enough
Speaker 1: to keep the company alive. I don't think the Pixie
Speaker 1: is priced well enough to keep the company alive. I
Speaker 1: think Palm. I think Palm put all of its eggs
Speaker 1: into the the web boast basket, and I don't think
Speaker 1: the web boast basket has done well enough to keep
Speaker 1: the company going. I think I think two thousand ten
Speaker 1: if it's if it doesn't see the death of Palm,
Speaker 1: it's essentially gonna be the Swan song. I mean, maybe
Speaker 1: they'll come out with a really cool device, they'll have
Speaker 1: it at c e S and everyone will be talking
Speaker 1: about it. But that did not that wasn't enough for
Speaker 1: them this past year because that that was when they
Speaker 1: showed off the Pre and everyone thought it was great,
Speaker 1: and it just did not do as well as it
Speaker 1: needed to. Yeah, yeah, okay, Mine's gonna be rather close
Speaker 1: to home for you because this is this may fall
Speaker 1: in the lame category, but I have to I predict
Speaker 1: that this laptop that is sitting between you and me,
Speaker 1: that is yours work computer, is going to die before
Speaker 1: the end of the year. That's what kind of prediction
Speaker 1: I've gone through four laptops since I've been at how
Speaker 1: stuff works dot com, and I started in February two seven. No, no, seriously,
Speaker 1: he when he's typing to me, the E key is
Speaker 1: not working. Away. Yeah, well, I just avoid words that
Speaker 1: use the letter E now, which is why. Uh, I'm
Speaker 1: trying to learn Welsh. Yes, and we have to talk
Speaker 1: about the intern run so yeah, yeah, uh it still works.
Speaker 1: I just have to punch that key really hard. Oh
Speaker 1: and I'm also missing the tilde key. Did you notice that? Yes,
Speaker 1: I no longer. Okay, so it's lame, but it is
Speaker 1: a tech prediction. He's got to have another. You've got
Speaker 1: another prediction that looks very close to my home. I
Speaker 1: will be on this Weekend Tech sometime in two thousand ten.
Speaker 1: Leo reports show this Weekend Tech. Here's my prediction. I
Speaker 1: will be a guest on that show sometime in two
Speaker 1: thousand and ten. I have absolutely an interesting, full full disclosure.
Speaker 1: I have no leads on this. Leo Laporte, as far
Speaker 1: as I know, has no knowledge of my existence. I'm
Speaker 1: sure he knows of the website, I mean, how stuff works.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he knows how stuff works. I don't think
Speaker 1: he knows who I am, UM, but I have high
Speaker 1: hopes that sometime in two thousand and ten I will
Speaker 1: be invited to be a guest on This Weekend Tech.
Speaker 1: It's a show that I actually, I really enjoy um
Speaker 1: and as a format that goes long enough for me
Speaker 1: to talk as much as I want to the point
Speaker 1: where I'm hoarse and can no longer talk anymore, because
Speaker 1: those shows are long. If you have not listened to
Speaker 1: This Weekend Tech, Leo Report gets a round table of
Speaker 1: various tech journalists and and movers and shakers in the
Speaker 1: technology world. They're not all just journalists. Some of them
Speaker 1: are uh, you know, entrepreneurs, and they talk about the
Speaker 1: big news stories that happened that week. And UM, it's
Speaker 1: a good format. Leo Reports a great host and he
Speaker 1: leads a very engaging conversation and they can get really
Speaker 1: deep into some of these subjects too. So yeah, it's
Speaker 1: it's more than just covering the surface of the story.
Speaker 1: They try to dig down into what does this really mean?
Speaker 1: What are the consequences, how could it affect other things
Speaker 1: within the industry. Um, it's a really in depth conversation,
Speaker 1: but they keep it very accessible, so even if you
Speaker 1: are not a you know, technology guru, it's pretty easy
Speaker 1: to follow along. So um, I mean occasionally they can
Speaker 1: get bogged down into into technical details, but that's that's
Speaker 1: the exception rather than the rule. And uh and he
Speaker 1: consistently has some of the most intelligent and interesting guests
Speaker 1: on that show. So granted, that's a very high bar
Speaker 1: for me to reach. But um, I figure if we
Speaker 1: can con him into thinking that I know what I'm
Speaker 1: talking about, I have a shot. I might need your help,
Speaker 1: oh tech stuff listeners to to get Leo's attention. All right, then,
Speaker 1: all right, that was my last predict. I actually have more.
Speaker 1: But because you know you're out there, you can you
Speaker 1: can throw them out there. You could throw them out there.
Speaker 1: Some of them are gimmey's. Like, I expect we'll see
Speaker 1: a rise in three D entertainment. We saw that, we
Speaker 1: saw that increased steadily through two thousand nine. I think
Speaker 1: two thousand and ten will continue that trend um, especially
Speaker 1: since I think Avatar, Uh you know what, I was
Speaker 1: a naysayer on Avatar early on. I didn't think it
Speaker 1: was gonna the movie Avatar, Yeah, the James Cameron movie.
Speaker 1: I was kind of a NASA aer. I didn't think
Speaker 1: it was gonna be very good, but people I really
Speaker 1: really respect who have seen that movie have been very
Speaker 1: positive about it. And so I am willing to eat
Speaker 1: crow and say, you know what, Uh, James Cameron proved
Speaker 1: me wrong. Man. I'm I'm eager to see a fun
Speaker 1: science fiction film. And I think that if he really
Speaker 1: has managed to completely changed the way movies are made,
Speaker 1: that's awesome. So and if it disappoints you, where your
Speaker 1: heart go on? Uh yeah, yeah, exactly. So. Well, That's
Speaker 1: the other thing is that James Cameron has a history
Speaker 1: of making these incredibly expensive movies that everyone thought there's
Speaker 1: no way this film could ever recapture the cost it
Speaker 1: made to create the film, especially with things like Titanic,
Speaker 1: which had so many problems in the production sequence. A
Speaker 1: lot of people had a sinking feeling about that. Exactly yeah,
Speaker 1: spoiler alert, the boat sinks. But the the the film
Speaker 1: made well more than what it costs to produce. And so,
Speaker 1: I mean, Cameron, he just consistently amazes me. So I'm
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to being amazed again. But um, I
Speaker 1: think we're gonna see a rise in telecommuting in companies
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see more and more companies, especially
Speaker 1: new companies, start with a model where they move away
Speaker 1: from the geographically centered office and they do more teleconferencing
Speaker 1: and teleworking. UM. I think we're gonna see a lot
Speaker 1: more Internet ready televisions that can tap into the Internet
Speaker 1: directly without the need for an additional box like a
Speaker 1: Roku or an Apple TV. People are actually going to
Speaker 1: buy them. I think that they're going to them. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they've had them, but I think that it's always been
Speaker 1: like the high end televisions, and you hardly ever see
Speaker 1: them in stores. I think, yeah, when you walk into
Speaker 1: the Yes, I think when you walk into the instead
Speaker 1: of just to the Internet, they will be accessible to people.
Speaker 1: When you walk into an electronic store, I think you
Speaker 1: will see them for sale. UM. I think virtualization is
Speaker 1: going to be huge in two thousands ten, you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a lot more companies moving to virtual computers as
Speaker 1: opposed to UM to regular computers because it's usually less expensive,
Speaker 1: easier to maintain UM, easier to keep control of everything.
Speaker 1: You don't have to worry about your employee getting upset,
Speaker 1: taking his or her computer home, going and then showing
Speaker 1: up at a competitor and handing all the information over.
Speaker 1: I mean, there are a lot of reasons why virtualization
Speaker 1: is is attractive. Um, then let's see I'm already said
Speaker 1: that one If I said that one, oh, and we're
Speaker 1: gonna see a lot more newspapers actually attempt what Murdoch
Speaker 1: was saying and get behind a paywall, d list from Google,
Speaker 1: or at least work with Google to no longer have
Speaker 1: their uh their information freely accessible through Google. And then
Speaker 1: we're gonna see all these other smaller newspapers and blogs
Speaker 1: Russian to fill that niche, and those big newspapers are
Speaker 1: gonna say, darn, we want our we want our ball back,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna and we're gonna see them abandoned that
Speaker 1: that business model. Yeah, but I don't know that you'll
Speaker 1: see I'm abandoned it into They might, they might last
Speaker 1: a year or two. They might try and hold a
Speaker 1: year or two. But I don't think that the subscription
Speaker 1: based service is going to bring them the massive amount
Speaker 1: of money they think they're going to get. Uh that
Speaker 1: if it's gonna if if it brings the money, I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be uh for more or less equivalent
Speaker 1: to the money they make in web advertising, it's not
Speaker 1: I mean, you might make up for it in uh
Speaker 1: in the amount of money each individual person is willing
Speaker 1: to pay, but you're gonna lose a lot of potential subscribers,
Speaker 1: that is, all of them. So there we go. There
Speaker 1: are all of our predictions, which means that at the
Speaker 1: end of two thousand ten, we will once again listen
Speaker 1: to this podcast and start to pull all of those
Speaker 1: predictions together and see how we did. Hopefully I'll get
Speaker 1: some time. The cool thing is that no matter what
Speaker 1: we try to predict, there's always going to be stuff
Speaker 1: that happens that neither of us could have ever guessed at.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, like, can you believe that Apple
Speaker 1: bought Microsoft? Who saw that coming? You know, something like that?
Speaker 1: Something insane and you know we joke about it, but crazy.
Speaker 1: I mean, two thousand nine was a year of mergers.
Speaker 1: It's crazy. You know. I never thought i'd see Yahoo
Speaker 1: and Microsoft shake hands over a search deal, but they have.
Speaker 1: So whether that deal pans out, we still have to
Speaker 1: wait and see. So if any of you have any
Speaker 1: comments you'd like to, Oh wait, before I do that,
Speaker 1: I totally forgot I have one more listener mail and
Speaker 1: listen listening comes from Reese, and what Reese has to
Speaker 1: say impacts directly our predictions. Reese says, Dear Chris and Jonathan,
Speaker 1: one of my mother's friends works for Apple. I had
Speaker 1: just recently listened to your podcast on the Apple tablet
Speaker 1: and asked her about it. I was shocked to hear
Speaker 1: her answer. The Apple tablet is indeed just a myth.
Speaker 1: It was, however, an idea within the Apple realm. However,
Speaker 1: they will be making many new products, just not this tablet. Sincerely, Reese,
Speaker 1: Age eleven. So, folks, if we are wrong, it's Reese's fault. No,
Speaker 1: just kidding, Reese, just kidding, Reese. Uh. We're we're betting
Speaker 1: that the rumors are true. Um and if they If
Speaker 1: we are wrong, we will give you kudos at the
Speaker 1: end of two thousand ten. And Frank G Can tell
Speaker 1: you how much those kudos are worth. If any of
Speaker 1: you have any predictions you'd like us to know about,
Speaker 1: or any other kind of comments, questions that sort of thing,
Speaker 1: send us an email. Our address is tech Stuff at
Speaker 1: how stuff works dot com. Remember we do have a
Speaker 1: live show every Tuesday one pm. Over at the blogs.
Speaker 1: You can go to how stuff works dot com. Just
Speaker 1: look at the blogs on the right hand side. Click
Speaker 1: on any old link over there. You'll be able to
Speaker 1: navigate through to the tech stuff blog and find the
Speaker 1: link to our our handy dandy show where we give
Speaker 1: technology news with a smile and sometimes a little dance.
Speaker 1: And Chris and I will ta to you again really
Speaker 1: soon for more on this and thousands of other topics.
Speaker 1: Does it how stuff works dot com and be sure
Speaker 1: to check out the new tech Stuff Blog now on
Speaker 1: the house stuff Works homepage. Brought to you by the
Speaker 1: reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, are you