WEBVTT - Tech Predictions for 2010 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:03.000 Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve cameray. 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:08.920 It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology with 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:17.919 tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there, everyone, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:20.720 and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poette, 0:00:20.720 --> 0:00:22.520 and I am the tech editor here at how stuff 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:25.400 works dot com. Sitting across from me, as usual, is 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:29.160 senior writer Jonathan Strickland. I predict this will be an 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:33.640 awesome episode. I predict you said something nearly the same 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.640 thing last week. I think I predicted it was going 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:39.480 to be the best episode ever. All right, well, let's 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:45.640 start this off with a little listener mail. This listener 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:49.000 mail comes from Kyle, who is and I quote, our 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:53.200 biggest seventh grade fan, so perhaps he's nine ft tall. 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:58.120 Because Hi, guys, I recently subscribed to the tech Stuff podcast, 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:00.720 and of the other two I've subscrip right too, this 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:04.240 is my absolute favorite. Thanks Kyle. This morning and over 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:06.280 the weekend, I was listening to some podcasts and listen 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:09.399 to your tech predictions for two thousand nine. I was 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:11.520 wondering if you, guys, like you said in the podcast, 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.480 could update your list and say what happened and did 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:17.560 not happen keep up the great work. And Kyle's from 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:22.920 conquered California, and so we already did o our rundown 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:29.720 where uh, somehow you ended up with all these chech Yeah, yeah, 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:32.920 that was crazy. I'm hoping that maybe maybe this year, 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:36.560 this coming year, uh, you'll maybe get a check mark. 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:39.440 I mean it'll be I mean, we'll see. We'll see 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:43.759 after I finish telling up the marks next year. But 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.520 we since we already went through what our predictions were 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:50.760 last time, we're gonna make new predictions for two thousand ten. 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.120 Now when we're recording this, it is still two thousand nine. 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:58.440 I'm assuming that it will probably publish before the first 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:00.480 of two thousand ten, but I don't know for sure, 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:04.120 because we do record these ahead of time, and uh, 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:06.560 as we did last year, we we took some that 0:02:06.600 --> 0:02:09.840 were pretty pretty well educated guesses, you know, we figured 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:13.399 would be reasonably likely to happen, and then we sort 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:15.400 of went out on a limb on a few teams. 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:16.840 So I'm trying to do a little bit of a 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:19.160 mix some of the really like big big ones, Like 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:22.519 I hope this isn't stealing one of yours about cloud 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:26.040 computing being big. I mean that's that's almost a gimme, 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:30.000 like cloud computing being big, or smartphones will continue to 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:33.560 be popular. Those are kind of like those aren't predictions. 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:37.600 That's that's obvious to to anybody really, So um, we're 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:39.959 trying to avoid those as much as possible, although I 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:43.280 think some of mine may fall into the lame category. 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:46.480 Um and uh, maybe you'll get a checkmark for this, 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:50.119 pett I'm gonna we already know that I have more 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:52.960 predictions written down than be lett Us. I'm you know, 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:56.200 I'm I came up with some during the podcast last year, 0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:58.440 and I might come up with That's not a criticism 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:00.280 to you, Bullett. Know what I'm in What mean to 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:03.919 say is that because I have more and you have fewer. Um, 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:06.359 I'm going to have you go first because it may 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.000 be one of the ones that I use, and that 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:11.639 way I still have something I can choose from. Right, 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:13.399 But if I use one of the ones you use, 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:18.480 then you're rapidly up the creek. Okay, so you can 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:22.520 go first at my first prediction, I'm gonna go with 0:03:22.560 --> 0:03:27.520 one of the most uh hot um news items of 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:30.400 right of the time as of right this minute when 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:33.240 we're recording, is and I predict that Apple will in 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:36.760 fact release something, whether or not it is the tablet 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.280 quote unquote tablet. But I have this feeling they're going 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:43.640 to come out with a larger iPod iPhone style device 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:47.920 that people are calling the Apple tablet right now, um, 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:51.240 because there's just too much information about this non existent 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:52.960 product that has been pushed back that hasn't even been 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:56.360 announced yet as of this recording. I think they will 0:03:56.440 --> 0:04:00.160 come out with something, and I think it will sell well. 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:02.640 But here's the prediction part. I don't think it's going 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:05.040 to sell as well as people thought from all the 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:07.720 hype interest Well, you know, we thought it was gonna 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:09.440 sell I'm making a number up here. This is not 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.200 really the prediction, like million copies and the I only sold, 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:15.240 you know, sixteen million. Okay. I think it's going to 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.880 be successful, but not wild interesting. So so I also 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.560 had in my predictions that Apple would come out with 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:25.400 a tablet device. Some people are calling it the iPad, 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:30.240 I don't know, just call it Apple tablet. That in general, 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:31.839 we know that it's supposed to be a like a 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:36.200 ten inch screen device of some sort, which is much 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:39.520 larger than an iPod Touch or I I iPhone. So 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:43.920 but it is not like a clamshell style computer. More 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.040 like it won't have a keyboard. It would have its 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.600 own like touch screen interface. Because we agree that. That's 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:50.960 why I agree that's going to launch. Now, I said 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:53.800 that's going to launch, but it's gonna tank. Really, so 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:56.680 you think it's gonna tank out right? Well, if the 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.560 predictions are correct and it's going to be marketed for 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.039 a thou and dollars a pop, that's a lot of 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:06.880 money to ask for a specialized gadget. I mean how 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:08.560 specialized it is. I think it's going to be more 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:10.599 of a computing device. Yeah, but you can buy a 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:12.600 computer for less than that, and you can have buy 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:14.760 a computer for lesson that has a keyboard, and you 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:18.560 can buy an Apple computer for that same price that 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:23.120 has a keyboard. We'll see. I mean, no, granted, Steve Jobs, 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:26.280 he's amazing at convincing you that you want what he 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.919 has to sell, so maybe he'll prove me wrong, but 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.800 I don't think it's going to do well. Alright. Well, 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:35.279 so there's a prediction where we had a fundamental disagreement, 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:36.800 which is awesome because that means one of us is 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:38.080 going to get a check mark, and one of us 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:40.240 is going to get an next I think I know 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.200 who it will be if I'm the one gig score. 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.480 So let me go ahead and make my next prediction. Now, 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.960 this one, this one's a total gimme. Two thousand ten 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:54.760 will be the year of the e reader. Okay, so 0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:57.440 kindall has been out for a couple of years. The 0:05:57.520 --> 0:06:02.320 Nook has well saying the Nook has come out as 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:06.640 probably being a little ambitious. The Knook is on sale, Uh, 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:11.599 it'll start shipping any day now, really honestly, but the 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:13.600 Sony e reader has been out for a while. I'm 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.279 guessing that at c E s and two thousand and ten, 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:18.760 which it happens in the first week of January in 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:23.800 two thou um and I will be heading down there. Um, 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:28.279 I'm guessing that CS is going to have uh, several 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:33.160 more electronic reading devices on display from different manufacturers. I 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:35.920 think two thousand ten is when the e reader form 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:38.719 factor really comes into its own, and we're probably gonna 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:43.640 see some pretty hefty competition between several different developers, and 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:46.160 then maybe maybe even by the end of the year, 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:48.760 we'll start seeing some real front runners to see who's 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:51.160 gonna dominate that space right now. Amazon Kindle's got a 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:55.599 huge head start. I Uh, this wasn't in my predictions, 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:57.280 But I disagree with you. I think we have another 0:06:57.320 --> 0:06:59.000 year before that happens. So you think you think it 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:01.279 won't be until two thousand eleven before the readers really 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.160 become a big thing. And then I based that on 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:09.400 Gartner and their hype index. The industry analysts says that 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:12.280 there is a a trough of disillusionment coming for the 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:15.080 e reader, um, and then it will settle out and 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:18.080 actually become successful. But at this point they predict that 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:20.680 there's going to be some more times. I'm saying I 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:22.720 base it on the fact that my mom called me 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:24.960 to ask me which one would be better for my dad, 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:28.040 the Kindle or the Nook. Okay, which you know when 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.320 my when your mom calls you to ask you, you 0:07:30.440 --> 0:07:35.000 know it's a big thing. Okay, Alright, you want another 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:40.360 hot trending topic right now? The Google phone the Nexus one. Um, 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:43.040 we already we already sort of agree on this. I 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:46.360 think based on our Tech Stuff Live broadcast of earlier, 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:49.920 that it will actually come out and be a consumer device. 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:52.480 I think, um, but I think it's gonna go with 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.119 T Mobile. I think you're gonna pocket to T Mobile. Again, 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:57.640 that's sort of a gimme based on the FCC filing, 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:00.120 but that was also one of my predictions. And I 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.920 didn't specify the carrier, but I said it would come 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:06.040 out and it would be locked. It's gonna be locked, 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:09.320 so yeah, we'll I'm in total total agreement with you there. 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:12.440 But Lett, I think that the Nexus one or whatever 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.120 it is called, when it eventually becomes a consumer phone, 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:19.200 I think it will be locked down to a single carrier. Um. 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:21.800 I also think that I will probably want one. I 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:23.680 think so too, because I've got the g one and 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:26.080 I love it, so all right, that's a good prediction. 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:30.880 I like that. Um. I say that in two thousand 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:33.760 and ten, the iPod Touch, the next generation will have 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:39.560 a camera. Okay, we expected that this past year at 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:44.280 the event, and it didn't happen. I think it's from 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:46.400 what I understand, it sounds like the reason why it 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:50.679 didn't happen was supply chain issues. That the chips weren't 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:53.520 quite right, the sensors weren't quite right, and it wasn't 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:58.320 gonna fit within the iPod iPod Touch um form factor. 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:01.480 So but I do predict that they will fix that 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:04.079 problem and that sometime in two thousand ten we will 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:07.480 start seeing iPod touches that have cameras in them. All right, then, 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:11.160 Uh yeah, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:14.640 that they're kind of gimme. I was going with a 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:18.959 this isn't really as as gimme ish um, and it's 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:21.360 related to my last one. I think that T Mobile 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:23.559 is going to end up in a merger with somebody 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:26.520 over the next year. M hmm. There was talk for 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.679 a while about the T Mobile sprint thing, which sounds 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.599 to me like it's not gonna happen now, and T 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:35.640 Mobile and UH and A T and T were rumored 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:38.920 for a bit, and actually some of the smaller carriers 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:41.920 umored to be you know, can as part of a deal. 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.679 So team makes a little more sense just because they 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.240 both run on the same they're both rely on the 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.240 same three G technology. I want to say that now. 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:52.200 I'm not questioning whether or not, but I know that 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:54.480 I've seen a couple of rumors swirling around. I think 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:58.160 it's actually going to happen in because I think the uh, 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:01.040 the Nexus one is going to be popular enough where 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:06.640 they're gonna need more network. So otherwise about how big 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:11.040 you're gonna start seeing something like T mobile experiencing the 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:13.640 same sort of problems and pr disaster that a T 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:15.680 and T has had to field in two thousand nine. Yeah, 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:17.559 because I do think the nextest one will be popular. 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:21.680 All right, well, um uh, here's here's one that's gonna 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:25.600 bum out our gamers friends. I think that two thousand 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:28.079 and ten will come and go with yet another year 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:31.280 where there is no announcement of a future console from 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:34.920 either Sony or Microsoft. I don't think we're gonna hear 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:36.920 about the PS four. I don't think we're gonna hear 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.200 about the Xbox seven, twenty or whatever you want to 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:41.840 call them next year. The reason for that is because 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:46.000 they are still developing uh some pretty high end accessories 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:50.440 for those devices, like the Sony Wand and Project at all. Uh. 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.160 Those things kind of suggest to me that that the 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.720 companies are planning on extending the lifetimes of these consoles 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:59.400 for a few more years. And it would be um 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:03.160 Dutch mental to go ahead and announce the successor to 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:06.280 those systems, because you would really hurt the sales of 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:08.920 your peripherals. If everyone's thinking, well, I want to hold 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:11.680 off until the next generation console comes up, because what 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:15.000 if it's not compatible? What if these peripherals don't aren't 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:18.400 compatible with the new system. So I, uh you know, 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:19.719 that was that was the thing I was trying to 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:21.440 think of. This is one of the reasons I have 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.920 fewer uh predictions this year, is because I was trying 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:27.319 to think of something for gaming, and this is sort 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.280 of a non prediction. I don't know that I see 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.360 anything big happening on the gaming front anyway, because we 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:35.040 had so many big announcements. The biggest thing I could 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:38.240 see is if Nintendo came out with something, because Nintendo 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:41.400 is starting to kind of do Yeah, they're starting to well, 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:43.280 they're starting to feel the slow down to the we 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:48.800 the we mania is starting to slowly uh fade away. 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.920 And so it may be that we hear an announcement 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:55.840 in two thousand ten of a new Nintendo console. Now 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.000 I don't think it would be available in two thousand ten, 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.520 and two thousand eleven would be the earliest see it, 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.600 but we might get a hint, like maybe a teaser 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:09.319 at E three or something. Okay, so, um, is it 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:14.760 my turn? That was too much of a gimme, I 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:18.240 must skip that one. Um, I think Apple is indeed 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:21.200 going to embrace the La La method and go with 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:24.120 a music rental program. So you're gonna have like some 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:29.400 sort of streaming service on on iTunes where you know, 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.960 basically pay lower fee and you know, all you can 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:36.120 eat type stuff as long as you're subscribing. I would 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:38.240 love to see that happen. I don't know if that's 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:40.600 gonna happen or not, but I want that prediction to 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.040 be true. So well, a lot of people, a lot 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.400 of people are betting that you're you know, if you're 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:48.960 betting against me, that you would win because the model 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.880 wasn't working. La La was one of many that was 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:56.040 sort of struggling to make money. And uh, you know, 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:58.360 but I don't know. I mean, I don't know how 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:00.880 many people were really familiar with lat and it's and 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:04.319 it's model, and uh, Apple's got a lot more marketing 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.840 muscle that it can use, so and I don't know, 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.120 I think it's gonna happen. Well, here's here's one where 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:14.000 I'm sticking my neck way out. I predict that in 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:17.240 two thousand and ten, the large Hadron collider will either 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.920 uncover evidence of the Higgs boasting particle or something even 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:26.280 more bizarre. Okay, So in other words, scientists will tell 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:30.840 you that UM often will tell you that sometimes they 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:33.840 don't want to find what they expect to find, because 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:35.640 if you find what you expect to find, all it 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:40.200 does is confirm your hypothesis, and you don't learn anything more. 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:42.880 You just confirm something. If you find something you don't 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:44.960 expect to find, that means there's something new that you 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.000 don't know, and it's fun to learn that. I think 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.360 these people are crazy, but I think it does mean 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:55.840 that the the collisions in the LHC will probably generate 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:59.920 something that will either lead scientists to to definitively state 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.400 whether or not the Higgs Boston particle exists, or if 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:05.440 there's something even more unusual that we have not thought 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:09.800 of yet that actually explains why matter has mass. There's 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.360 a rabbit in a clown wig playing on harmonica. We 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:15.440 never expected to find that, Right turkey in the straw? 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.040 Who who had turkey and the straw? Alright betting pool, 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:23.200 who had turned turkey in the straw? Nice? Okay, this 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.200 is this is a little bit out there too. I'm 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.320 not sure they're ready to do it, But I'm gonna 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:30.280 there's there's something I saw on the news today about 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:36.800 the Paramount studios trying a a pay for streaming clips things. 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:40.520 So I'm gonna say that UH movie studios are going 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:44.080 to go ahead and start dipping their toes into the 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:48.160 UH downloadable movie pool. Maybe it's just a rental thing, 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:50.600 but I think that some of them are going to 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:54.280 get on that UM themselves and find ways to make 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.360 that work. UM. Maybe that's going to be through the 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:02.000 the Comcast acquisition of NBC Universal. UM. You know, now 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:06.080 that they've got content and infrastructure together in one spot, 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:08.800 they'll have total control over that. I don't know, but 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:10.760 I think I think it's gonna start happening when they 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:14.640 finally reluctantly go Okay, maybe we'll let you view this 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:18.640 sun and streaming basis. And I don't know if they'll 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:20.240 go for it or not, but I think they're going 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.960 to try it like full length content. I wouldn't expect 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:28.080 it in January one, right. I have a similar prediction 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:30.160 in that I think that in two thousand and ten, 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:34.760 will we'll start to see the UM the the pay 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:39.960 part of of a Murdock's plan for Hulu's has come 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:43.240 into play cratch that went off my list. Well, that 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:45.800 was very, very similar to the one you were just mentioning. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.480 It was gonna be my next So I paid tier 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:54.840 paid tier for Hulu. Now, even back when when uh 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:59.520 Fox executives were talking about the possibility of of making 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:03.360 a paid tear in Hulu, they did say that there 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:07.480 would still be content that would be freely accessible. So 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:11.200 probably still what ads supported, I would guess, or or 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:16.760 advertisement supported, but there there would be some content that 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.360 you would have to pay to access. Now, personally, I 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:23.800 think if they kept it at the five trailing episodes model, 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.080 but if you paid extra you could get access to 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:30.240 older episodes. That would be awesome because then you'd be like, 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.760 if you're like me and you suddenly say, oh my gosh, 0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:36.800 it's seven weeks into twenty four and I totally forgot 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:40.280 because they don't have a TV anymore, Um, let me 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:41.800 go to Hulu. And then you look at Hulu and 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:43.800 you can only go back as far as episode three 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:47.160 and up. Then you're stuck, well, what happened in the 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.360 first two hours. That's when Jack Bauer really kicks. But 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:52.920 because it's before he's been beat up, and he spends 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:58.400 the rest of the season slowly recovering. UM. Yeah, I'm 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.680 I'm hoping that that's the way that paid here takes form, 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:04.040 but I honestly don't know. All Right, Well, that was 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:06.359 one for both of us, so let's I'll go ahead 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:10.000 do a different one for me. UM. I think that 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.080 this is gonna be the year where we actually start 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:18.200 seeing wireless high definition components hit the consumer market. Now 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.960 we've seen we've seen these things at c e S 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.119 a couple of years ago. Actually back in two thousand seven, 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:27.679 I saw these and they've been at ce S probably 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:30.840 before that. That was the first c S I went to. Now, 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.479 what we're talking about here are devices like UM, like 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:37.719 Blu ray players or high definition DVRs or whatever that 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:43.760 can transmit signals wirelessly to a a similarly enabled television. 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:48.440 And there are several different competing standards that are trying 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:53.120 to become the standard or high definition wireless data transmission. UH. 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.919 Two of those would be White Gig made by the 0:17:55.920 --> 0:18:00.840 White Gig Alliance and UM W h D I I am, 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:03.760 which is UH. I forget what that acronym stands for. 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:08.320 I remember it's like high definition something or other. I'm awesome, 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:11.200 aren't they? But anyway, that's the point being that these 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:15.000 technologies have been around for a while, but we haven't 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.800 seen anything beyond the prototype stage. I think in two 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:22.120 thousand ten, maybe by the holiday season of two thousands tens, 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:23.800 so we're talking about almost a full year from now, 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:27.760 we'll start seeing, Uh, these devices hit the market so 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:29.920 that you could you could suddenly have a home theater 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:33.480 that doesn't have to have cables connecting the various components together. 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:35.480 I mean, you still need a power chord, but you 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:37.159 wouldn't have to have a chord that goes between your 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.240 Blu ray player and your television. Yeah, all right, that 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:43.080 was that was my next one. UM here's what I 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:45.520 I just thought up on the fly based only on that. UM, 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:50.800 I think you're gonna see the first um LTE infrastructure 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:54.160 in the United states're starting to see it. I think 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:57.920 I think Stockholm is getting one right now. So it's 0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:01.160 it is. They are being built overseas all ready. So yeah, 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:03.680 that's that makes sense to me. UM. I actually had 0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:05.639 on as one of mine. As we would see the 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:09.720 war between the War of the four G technologies, which 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:12.760 right now, I'm thinking mainly why Max and LTE Although 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:14.719 those are not the only two, those are the two 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:18.720 front runners. What's the The whole thing is that there 0:19:18.920 --> 0:19:23.240 is y max available in several cities now and they're 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.760 Max customers, so yes, And there are many people who 0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:30.440 are many people, many companies who are currently offering three 0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:32.600 G services who have said that they want to offer 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.680 lt Well, honestly, they can't afford to wait too much longer. 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:38.440 I mean, obviously the economy being what it is kind 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:39.919 of puts a damper on some of their plans. But 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:41.560 they're gonna have to start rolling some of the stuff 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:43.560 out if they want to compete, because wy max is 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.800 going to eat their lunch if they wait too much longer, right, 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.720 they will drink their milkshake. Yes, that's a reference that 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:51.480 you don't get because you have not seen there will 0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:54.359 be blood, that's correct. At any rate, White Gig is 0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:57.360 or I'm sorry, why max is currently drinking LTEs milkshake? 0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:02.440 And uh yeah. As these as these networks get built out, 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:05.400 we'll start seeing more devices that can take advantage of it. Currently, 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:10.160 most devices require an additional piece of hardware in order 0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:14.040 to interface with these technologies. For example, my laptop computer 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:18.080 has a WiFi H receiver built into it, but it 0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:20.879 does not have a y max receiver. And they are 0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:23.480 two different technologies running on two different frequencies, so you 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:26.040 can't use one for the other. Uh So, in order 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:28.960 to use my laptop with my y max service, I 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:33.320 have to either connect directly to my y max modem, 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.480 or I have to have a little dongle that can 0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:40.240 pick up the it's essentially an antenna that can pick 0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:42.800 up the signal. Or there is one other option. You 0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:45.960 can connect your modem to a wireless router, converting the 0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:48.240 signal to WiFi, and then pick it up through your 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:51.560 WiFi receiver. But I think that once these these networks 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:54.760 get built out, we'll see devices with those technologies built 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:59.040 directly into the device, even things like phones. We'll start 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:02.640 seeing phones on the four gene networks. So yeah, um, 0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:04.520 all right, Well that one was yours. So I guess 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:06.320 it's my turn again. How many more do you have? 0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:09.560 I have one more? One more? Okay, so well I'll 0:21:09.560 --> 0:21:11.160 do one more. You do one more, and then I'll 0:21:11.160 --> 0:21:13.959 do my caper. Okay, okay, so let me see, let 0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:17.560 me see what I've got um, oh, here's mine. Palm 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:22.320 goes under because the pre did not do well enough 0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:25.840 to keep the company alive. I don't think the Pixie 0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:28.760 is priced well enough to keep the company alive. I 0:21:28.800 --> 0:21:31.879 think Palm. I think Palm put all of its eggs 0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:35.800 into the the web boast basket, and I don't think 0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:38.040 the web boast basket has done well enough to keep 0:21:38.080 --> 0:21:40.560 the company going. I think I think two thousand ten 0:21:41.040 --> 0:21:42.960 if it's if it doesn't see the death of Palm, 0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:46.720