1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve cameray. 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology with 3 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there, everyone, 4 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poette, 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: and I am the tech editor here at how stuff 6 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: works dot com. Sitting across from me, as usual, is 7 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: senior writer Jonathan Strickland. I predict this will be an 8 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: awesome episode. I predict you said something nearly the same 9 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: thing last week. I think I predicted it was going 10 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,480 Speaker 1: to be the best episode ever. All right, well, let's 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 1: start this off with a little listener mail. This listener 12 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: mail comes from Kyle, who is and I quote, our 13 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: biggest seventh grade fan, so perhaps he's nine ft tall. 14 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: Because Hi, guys, I recently subscribed to the tech Stuff podcast, 15 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: and of the other two I've subscrip right too, this 16 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: is my absolute favorite. Thanks Kyle. This morning and over 17 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: the weekend, I was listening to some podcasts and listen 18 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 1: to your tech predictions for two thousand nine. I was 19 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: wondering if you, guys, like you said in the podcast, 20 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: could update your list and say what happened and did 21 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: not happen keep up the great work. And Kyle's from 22 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: conquered California, and so we already did o our rundown 23 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: where uh, somehow you ended up with all these chech Yeah, yeah, 24 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: that was crazy. I'm hoping that maybe maybe this year, 25 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: this coming year, uh, you'll maybe get a check mark. 26 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: I mean it'll be I mean, we'll see. We'll see 27 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 1: after I finish telling up the marks next year. But 28 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: we since we already went through what our predictions were 29 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: last time, we're gonna make new predictions for two thousand ten. 30 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: Now when we're recording this, it is still two thousand nine. 31 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: I'm assuming that it will probably publish before the first 32 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: of two thousand ten, but I don't know for sure, 33 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: because we do record these ahead of time, and uh, 34 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: as we did last year, we we took some that 35 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: were pretty pretty well educated guesses, you know, we figured 36 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:13,399 Speaker 1: would be reasonably likely to happen, and then we sort 37 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: of went out on a limb on a few teams. 38 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: So I'm trying to do a little bit of a 39 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: mix some of the really like big big ones, Like 40 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,519 Speaker 1: I hope this isn't stealing one of yours about cloud 41 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 1: computing being big. I mean that's that's almost a gimme, 42 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: like cloud computing being big, or smartphones will continue to 43 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: be popular. Those are kind of like those aren't predictions. 44 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: That's that's obvious to to anybody really, So um, we're 45 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:39,959 Speaker 1: trying to avoid those as much as possible, although I 46 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: think some of mine may fall into the lame category. 47 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: Um and uh, maybe you'll get a checkmark for this, 48 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,119 Speaker 1: pett I'm gonna we already know that I have more 49 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 1: predictions written down than be lett Us. I'm you know, 50 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: I'm I came up with some during the podcast last year, 51 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: and I might come up with That's not a criticism 52 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: to you, Bullett. Know what I'm in What mean to 53 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 1: say is that because I have more and you have fewer. Um, 54 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: I'm going to have you go first because it may 55 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: be one of the ones that I use, and that 56 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: way I still have something I can choose from. Right, 57 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,399 Speaker 1: But if I use one of the ones you use, 58 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: then you're rapidly up the creek. Okay, so you can 59 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: go first at my first prediction, I'm gonna go with 60 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 1: one of the most uh hot um news items of 61 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: right of the time as of right this minute when 62 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: we're recording, is and I predict that Apple will in 63 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: fact release something, whether or not it is the tablet 64 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: quote unquote tablet. But I have this feeling they're going 65 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 1: to come out with a larger iPod iPhone style device 66 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: that people are calling the Apple tablet right now, um, 67 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: because there's just too much information about this non existent 68 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: product that has been pushed back that hasn't even been 69 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: announced yet as of this recording. I think they will 70 00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: come out with something, and I think it will sell well. 71 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: But here's the prediction part. I don't think it's going 72 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: to sell as well as people thought from all the 73 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: hype interest Well, you know, we thought it was gonna 74 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: sell I'm making a number up here. This is not 75 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: really the prediction, like million copies and the I only sold, 76 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: you know, sixteen million. Okay. I think it's going to 77 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: be successful, but not wild interesting. So so I also 78 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: had in my predictions that Apple would come out with 79 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: a tablet device. Some people are calling it the iPad, 80 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: I don't know, just call it Apple tablet. That in general, 81 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: we know that it's supposed to be a like a 82 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: ten inch screen device of some sort, which is much 83 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: larger than an iPod Touch or I I iPhone. So 84 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: but it is not like a clamshell style computer. More 85 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: like it won't have a keyboard. It would have its 86 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 1: own like touch screen interface. Because we agree that. That's 87 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: why I agree that's going to launch. Now, I said 88 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: that's going to launch, but it's gonna tank. Really, so 89 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: you think it's gonna tank out right? Well, if the 90 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: predictions are correct and it's going to be marketed for 91 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 1: a thou and dollars a pop, that's a lot of 92 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: money to ask for a specialized gadget. I mean how 93 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: specialized it is. I think it's going to be more 94 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 1: of a computing device. Yeah, but you can buy a 95 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: computer for less than that, and you can have buy 96 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: a computer for lesson that has a keyboard, and you 97 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: can buy an Apple computer for that same price that 98 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: has a keyboard. We'll see. I mean, no, granted, Steve Jobs, 99 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 1: he's amazing at convincing you that you want what he 100 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,919 Speaker 1: has to sell, so maybe he'll prove me wrong, but 101 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to do well. Alright. Well, 102 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: so there's a prediction where we had a fundamental disagreement, 103 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: which is awesome because that means one of us is 104 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: going to get a check mark, and one of us 105 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: is going to get an next I think I know 106 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: who it will be if I'm the one gig score. 107 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: So let me go ahead and make my next prediction. Now, 108 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: this one, this one's a total gimme. Two thousand ten 109 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: will be the year of the e reader. Okay, so 110 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: kindall has been out for a couple of years. The 111 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: Nook has well saying the Nook has come out as 112 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: probably being a little ambitious. The Knook is on sale, Uh, 113 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: it'll start shipping any day now, really honestly, but the 114 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: Sony e reader has been out for a while. I'm 115 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: guessing that at c E s and two thousand and ten, 116 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: which it happens in the first week of January in 117 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: two thou um and I will be heading down there. Um, 118 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 1: I'm guessing that CS is going to have uh, several 119 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 1: more electronic reading devices on display from different manufacturers. I 120 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: think two thousand ten is when the e reader form 121 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 1: factor really comes into its own, and we're probably gonna 122 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: see some pretty hefty competition between several different developers, and 123 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 1: then maybe maybe even by the end of the year, 124 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: we'll start seeing some real front runners to see who's 125 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 1: gonna dominate that space right now. Amazon Kindle's got a 126 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 1: huge head start. I Uh, this wasn't in my predictions, 127 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 1: But I disagree with you. I think we have another 128 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: year before that happens. So you think you think it 129 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: won't be until two thousand eleven before the readers really 130 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 1: become a big thing. And then I based that on 131 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: Gartner and their hype index. The industry analysts says that 132 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: there is a a trough of disillusionment coming for the 133 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: e reader, um, and then it will settle out and 134 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: actually become successful. But at this point they predict that 135 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: there's going to be some more times. I'm saying I 136 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 1: base it on the fact that my mom called me 137 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: to ask me which one would be better for my dad, 138 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: the Kindle or the Nook. Okay, which you know when 139 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: my when your mom calls you to ask you, you 140 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: know it's a big thing. Okay, Alright, you want another 141 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: hot trending topic right now? The Google phone the Nexus one. Um, 142 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: we already we already sort of agree on this. I 143 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: think based on our Tech Stuff Live broadcast of earlier, 144 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: that it will actually come out and be a consumer device. 145 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: I think, um, but I think it's gonna go with 146 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,119 Speaker 1: T Mobile. I think you're gonna pocket to T Mobile. Again, 147 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: that's sort of a gimme based on the FCC filing, 148 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: but that was also one of my predictions. And I 149 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: didn't specify the carrier, but I said it would come 150 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: out and it would be locked. It's gonna be locked, 151 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: so yeah, we'll I'm in total total agreement with you there. 152 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: But Lett, I think that the Nexus one or whatever 153 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: it is called, when it eventually becomes a consumer phone, 154 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: I think it will be locked down to a single carrier. Um. 155 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: I also think that I will probably want one. I 156 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: think so too, because I've got the g one and 157 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: I love it, so all right, that's a good prediction. 158 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: I like that. Um. I say that in two thousand 159 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: and ten, the iPod Touch, the next generation will have 160 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: a camera. Okay, we expected that this past year at 161 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: the event, and it didn't happen. I think it's from 162 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: what I understand, it sounds like the reason why it 163 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 1: didn't happen was supply chain issues. That the chips weren't 164 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: quite right, the sensors weren't quite right, and it wasn't 165 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: gonna fit within the iPod iPod Touch um form factor. 166 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: So but I do predict that they will fix that 167 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: problem and that sometime in two thousand ten we will 168 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: start seeing iPod touches that have cameras in them. All right, then, 169 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see 170 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 1: that they're kind of gimme. I was going with a 171 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,959 Speaker 1: this isn't really as as gimme ish um, and it's 172 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 1: related to my last one. I think that T Mobile 173 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 1: is going to end up in a merger with somebody 174 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: over the next year. M hmm. There was talk for 175 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 1: a while about the T Mobile sprint thing, which sounds 176 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,599 Speaker 1: to me like it's not gonna happen now, and T 177 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: Mobile and UH and A T and T were rumored 178 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: for a bit, and actually some of the smaller carriers 179 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: umored to be you know, can as part of a deal. 180 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 1: So team makes a little more sense just because they 181 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: both run on the same they're both rely on the 182 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: same three G technology. I want to say that now. 183 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: I'm not questioning whether or not, but I know that 184 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: I've seen a couple of rumors swirling around. I think 185 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: it's actually going to happen in because I think the uh, 186 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: the Nexus one is going to be popular enough where 187 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: they're gonna need more network. So otherwise about how big 188 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: you're gonna start seeing something like T mobile experiencing the 189 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: same sort of problems and pr disaster that a T 190 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 1: and T has had to field in two thousand nine. Yeah, 191 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:17,559 Speaker 1: because I do think the nextest one will be popular. 192 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 1: All right, well, um uh, here's here's one that's gonna 193 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: bum out our gamers friends. I think that two thousand 194 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 1: and ten will come and go with yet another year 195 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: where there is no announcement of a future console from 196 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: either Sony or Microsoft. I don't think we're gonna hear 197 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: about the PS four. I don't think we're gonna hear 198 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 1: about the Xbox seven, twenty or whatever you want to 199 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: call them next year. The reason for that is because 200 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: they are still developing uh some pretty high end accessories 201 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 1: for those devices, like the Sony Wand and Project at all. Uh. 202 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: Those things kind of suggest to me that that the 203 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 1: companies are planning on extending the lifetimes of these consoles 204 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 1: for a few more years. And it would be um 205 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: Dutch mental to go ahead and announce the successor to 206 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: those systems, because you would really hurt the sales of 207 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: your peripherals. If everyone's thinking, well, I want to hold 208 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: off until the next generation console comes up, because what 209 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: if it's not compatible? What if these peripherals don't aren't 210 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 1: compatible with the new system. So I, uh you know, 211 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:19,719 Speaker 1: that was that was the thing I was trying to 212 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: think of. This is one of the reasons I have 213 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: fewer uh predictions this year, is because I was trying 214 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 1: to think of something for gaming, and this is sort 215 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: of a non prediction. I don't know that I see 216 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: anything big happening on the gaming front anyway, because we 217 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: had so many big announcements. The biggest thing I could 218 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: see is if Nintendo came out with something, because Nintendo 219 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: is starting to kind of do Yeah, they're starting to well, 220 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: they're starting to feel the slow down to the we 221 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: the we mania is starting to slowly uh fade away. 222 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: And so it may be that we hear an announcement 223 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: in two thousand ten of a new Nintendo console. Now 224 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: I don't think it would be available in two thousand ten, 225 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: and two thousand eleven would be the earliest see it, 226 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: but we might get a hint, like maybe a teaser 227 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:09,319 Speaker 1: at E three or something. Okay, so, um, is it 228 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: my turn? That was too much of a gimme, I 229 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: must skip that one. Um, I think Apple is indeed 230 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 1: going to embrace the La La method and go with 231 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: a music rental program. So you're gonna have like some 232 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: sort of streaming service on on iTunes where you know, 233 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 1: basically pay lower fee and you know, all you can 234 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: eat type stuff as long as you're subscribing. I would 235 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: love to see that happen. I don't know if that's 236 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: gonna happen or not, but I want that prediction to 237 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: be true. So well, a lot of people, a lot 238 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: of people are betting that you're you know, if you're 239 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: betting against me, that you would win because the model 240 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: wasn't working. La La was one of many that was 241 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: sort of struggling to make money. And uh, you know, 242 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: but I don't know. I mean, I don't know how 243 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: many people were really familiar with lat and it's and 244 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 1: it's model, and uh, Apple's got a lot more marketing 245 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: muscle that it can use, so and I don't know, 246 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna happen. Well, here's here's one where 247 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: I'm sticking my neck way out. I predict that in 248 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: two thousand and ten, the large Hadron collider will either 249 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: uncover evidence of the Higgs boasting particle or something even 250 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 1: more bizarre. Okay, So in other words, scientists will tell 251 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: you that UM often will tell you that sometimes they 252 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: don't want to find what they expect to find, because 253 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: if you find what you expect to find, all it 254 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 1: does is confirm your hypothesis, and you don't learn anything more. 255 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: You just confirm something. If you find something you don't 256 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: expect to find, that means there's something new that you 257 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: don't know, and it's fun to learn that. I think 258 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: these people are crazy, but I think it does mean 259 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 1: that the the collisions in the LHC will probably generate 260 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: something that will either lead scientists to to definitively state 261 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: whether or not the Higgs Boston particle exists, or if 262 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: there's something even more unusual that we have not thought 263 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: of yet that actually explains why matter has mass. There's 264 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: a rabbit in a clown wig playing on harmonica. We 265 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 1: never expected to find that, Right turkey in the straw? 266 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: Who who had turkey and the straw? Alright betting pool, 267 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 1: who had turned turkey in the straw? Nice? Okay, this 268 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 1: is this is a little bit out there too. I'm 269 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 1: not sure they're ready to do it, But I'm gonna 270 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: there's there's something I saw on the news today about 271 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: the Paramount studios trying a a pay for streaming clips things. 272 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna say that UH movie studios are going 273 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: to go ahead and start dipping their toes into the 274 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: UH downloadable movie pool. Maybe it's just a rental thing, 275 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: but I think that some of them are going to 276 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 1: get on that UM themselves and find ways to make 277 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: that work. UM. Maybe that's going to be through the 278 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: the Comcast acquisition of NBC Universal. UM. You know, now 279 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 1: that they've got content and infrastructure together in one spot, 280 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: they'll have total control over that. I don't know, but 281 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: I think I think it's gonna start happening when they 282 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: finally reluctantly go Okay, maybe we'll let you view this 283 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: sun and streaming basis. And I don't know if they'll 284 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: go for it or not, but I think they're going 285 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 1: to try it like full length content. I wouldn't expect 286 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: it in January one, right. I have a similar prediction 287 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: in that I think that in two thousand and ten, 288 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: will we'll start to see the UM the the pay 289 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: part of of a Murdock's plan for Hulu's has come 290 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 1: into play cratch that went off my list. Well, that 291 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: was very, very similar to the one you were just mentioning. 292 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: It was gonna be my next So I paid tier 293 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: paid tier for Hulu. Now, even back when when uh 294 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: Fox executives were talking about the possibility of of making 295 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: a paid tear in Hulu, they did say that there 296 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: would still be content that would be freely accessible. So 297 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: probably still what ads supported, I would guess, or or 298 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: advertisement supported, but there there would be some content that 299 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: you would have to pay to access. Now, personally, I 300 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: think if they kept it at the five trailing episodes model, 301 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: but if you paid extra you could get access to 302 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: older episodes. That would be awesome because then you'd be like, 303 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: if you're like me and you suddenly say, oh my gosh, 304 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: it's seven weeks into twenty four and I totally forgot 305 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: because they don't have a TV anymore, Um, let me 306 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: go to Hulu. And then you look at Hulu and 307 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: you can only go back as far as episode three 308 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: and up. Then you're stuck, well, what happened in the 309 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: first two hours. That's when Jack Bauer really kicks. But 310 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: because it's before he's been beat up, and he spends 311 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: the rest of the season slowly recovering. UM. Yeah, I'm 312 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: I'm hoping that that's the way that paid here takes form, 313 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: but I honestly don't know. All Right, Well, that was 314 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: one for both of us, so let's I'll go ahead 315 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: do a different one for me. UM. I think that 316 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: this is gonna be the year where we actually start 317 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: seeing wireless high definition components hit the consumer market. Now 318 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: we've seen we've seen these things at c e S 319 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. Actually back in two thousand seven, 320 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 1: I saw these and they've been at ce S probably 321 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 1: before that. That was the first c S I went to. Now, 322 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,479 Speaker 1: what we're talking about here are devices like UM, like 323 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,719 Speaker 1: Blu ray players or high definition DVRs or whatever that 324 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: can transmit signals wirelessly to a a similarly enabled television. 325 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: And there are several different competing standards that are trying 326 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:53,120 Speaker 1: to become the standard or high definition wireless data transmission. UH. 327 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 1: Two of those would be White Gig made by the 328 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: White Gig Alliance and UM W h D I I am, 329 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: which is UH. I forget what that acronym stands for. 330 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: I remember it's like high definition something or other. I'm awesome, 331 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 1: aren't they? But anyway, that's the point being that these 332 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 1: technologies have been around for a while, but we haven't 333 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: seen anything beyond the prototype stage. I think in two 334 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 1: thousand ten, maybe by the holiday season of two thousands tens, 335 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: so we're talking about almost a full year from now, 336 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: we'll start seeing, Uh, these devices hit the market so 337 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 1: that you could you could suddenly have a home theater 338 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: that doesn't have to have cables connecting the various components together. 339 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: I mean, you still need a power chord, but you 340 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 1: wouldn't have to have a chord that goes between your 341 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: Blu ray player and your television. Yeah, all right, that 342 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: was that was my next one. UM here's what I 343 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 1: I just thought up on the fly based only on that. UM, 344 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see the first um LTE infrastructure 345 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 1: in the United states're starting to see it. I think 346 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 1: I think Stockholm is getting one right now. So it's 347 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,160 Speaker 1: it is. They are being built overseas all ready. So yeah, 348 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 1: that's that makes sense to me. UM. I actually had 349 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: on as one of mine. As we would see the 350 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 1: war between the War of the four G technologies, which 351 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 1: right now, I'm thinking mainly why Max and LTE Although 352 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:14,719 Speaker 1: those are not the only two, those are the two 353 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: front runners. What's the The whole thing is that there 354 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: is y max available in several cities now and they're 355 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: Max customers, so yes, And there are many people who 356 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 1: are many people, many companies who are currently offering three 357 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: G services who have said that they want to offer 358 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 1: lt Well, honestly, they can't afford to wait too much longer. 359 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the economy being what it is kind 360 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:39,919 Speaker 1: of puts a damper on some of their plans. But 361 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: they're gonna have to start rolling some of the stuff 362 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: out if they want to compete, because wy max is 363 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: going to eat their lunch if they wait too much longer, right, 364 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: they will drink their milkshake. Yes, that's a reference that 365 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: you don't get because you have not seen there will 366 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 1: be blood, that's correct. At any rate, White Gig is 367 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,360 Speaker 1: or I'm sorry, why max is currently drinking LTEs milkshake? 368 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 1: And uh yeah. As these as these networks get built out, 369 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,400 Speaker 1: we'll start seeing more devices that can take advantage of it. Currently, 370 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 1: most devices require an additional piece of hardware in order 371 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 1: to interface with these technologies. For example, my laptop computer 372 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: has a WiFi H receiver built into it, but it 373 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 1: does not have a y max receiver. And they are 374 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: two different technologies running on two different frequencies, so you 375 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: can't use one for the other. Uh So, in order 376 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: to use my laptop with my y max service, I 377 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: have to either connect directly to my y max modem, 378 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: or I have to have a little dongle that can 379 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: pick up the it's essentially an antenna that can pick 380 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: up the signal. Or there is one other option. You 381 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: can connect your modem to a wireless router, converting the 382 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: signal to WiFi, and then pick it up through your 383 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: WiFi receiver. But I think that once these these networks 384 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: get built out, we'll see devices with those technologies built 385 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: directly into the device, even things like phones. We'll start 386 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 1: seeing phones on the four gene networks. So yeah, um, 387 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: all right, Well that one was yours. So I guess 388 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: it's my turn again. How many more do you have? 389 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: I have one more? One more? Okay, so well I'll 390 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 1: do one more. You do one more, and then I'll 391 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,959 Speaker 1: do my caper. Okay, okay, so let me see, let 392 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: me see what I've got um, oh, here's mine. Palm 393 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: goes under because the pre did not do well enough 394 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 1: to keep the company alive. I don't think the Pixie 395 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 1: is priced well enough to keep the company alive. I 396 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,879 Speaker 1: think Palm. I think Palm put all of its eggs 397 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: into the the web boast basket, and I don't think 398 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: the web boast basket has done well enough to keep 399 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: the company going. I think I think two thousand ten 400 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: if it's if it doesn't see the death of Palm, 401 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: it's essentially gonna be the Swan song. I mean, maybe 402 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: they'll come out with a really cool device, they'll have 403 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: it at c e S and everyone will be talking 404 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 1: about it. But that did not that wasn't enough for 405 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 1: them this past year because that that was when they 406 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 1: showed off the Pre and everyone thought it was great, 407 00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: and it just did not do as well as it 408 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 1: needed to. Yeah, yeah, okay, Mine's gonna be rather close 409 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: to home for you because this is this may fall 410 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: in the lame category, but I have to I predict 411 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: that this laptop that is sitting between you and me, 412 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 1: that is yours work computer, is going to die before 413 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 1: the end of the year. That's what kind of prediction 414 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 1: I've gone through four laptops since I've been at how 415 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,359 Speaker 1: stuff works dot com, and I started in February two seven. No, no, seriously, 416 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:29,199 Speaker 1: he when he's typing to me, the E key is 417 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: not working. Away. Yeah, well, I just avoid words that 418 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: use the letter E now, which is why. Uh, I'm 419 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: trying to learn Welsh. Yes, and we have to talk 420 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: about the intern run so yeah, yeah, uh it still works. 421 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: I just have to punch that key really hard. Oh 422 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: and I'm also missing the tilde key. Did you notice that? Yes, 423 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: I no longer. Okay, so it's lame, but it is 424 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 1: a tech prediction. He's got to have another. You've got 425 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: another prediction that looks very close to my home. I 426 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: will be on this Weekend Tech sometime in two thousand ten. 427 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: Leo reports show this Weekend Tech. Here's my prediction. I 428 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 1: will be a guest on that show sometime in two 429 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:21,640 Speaker 1: thousand and ten. I have absolutely an interesting, full full disclosure. 430 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: I have no leads on this. Leo Laporte, as far 431 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: as I know, has no knowledge of my existence. I'm 432 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: sure he knows of the website, I mean, how stuff works. 433 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: I'm sure he knows how stuff works. I don't think 434 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 1: he knows who I am, UM, but I have high 435 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 1: hopes that sometime in two thousand and ten I will 436 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: be invited to be a guest on This Weekend Tech. 437 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 1: It's a show that I actually, I really enjoy um 438 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: and as a format that goes long enough for me 439 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,640 Speaker 1: to talk as much as I want to the point 440 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 1: where I'm hoarse and can no longer talk anymore, because 441 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 1: those shows are long. If you have not listened to 442 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,399 Speaker 1: This Weekend Tech, Leo Report gets a round table of 443 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 1: various tech journalists and and movers and shakers in the 444 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,959 Speaker 1: technology world. They're not all just journalists. Some of them 445 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: are uh, you know, entrepreneurs, and they talk about the 446 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: big news stories that happened that week. And UM, it's 447 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 1: a good format. Leo Reports a great host and he 448 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: leads a very engaging conversation and they can get really 449 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: deep into some of these subjects too. So yeah, it's 450 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: it's more than just covering the surface of the story. 451 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 1: They try to dig down into what does this really mean? 452 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: What are the consequences, how could it affect other things 453 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 1: within the industry. Um, it's a really in depth conversation, 454 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 1: but they keep it very accessible, so even if you 455 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: are not a you know, technology guru, it's pretty easy 456 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,439 Speaker 1: to follow along. So um, I mean occasionally they can 457 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 1: get bogged down into into technical details, but that's that's 458 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 1: the exception rather than the rule. And uh and he 459 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: consistently has some of the most intelligent and interesting guests 460 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: on that show. So granted, that's a very high bar 461 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: for me to reach. But um, I figure if we 462 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: can con him into thinking that I know what I'm 463 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 1: talking about, I have a shot. I might need your help, 464 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: oh tech stuff listeners to to get Leo's attention. All right, then, 465 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 1: all right, that was my last predict. I actually have more. 466 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: But because you know you're out there, you can you 467 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: can throw them out there. You could throw them out there. 468 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 1: Some of them are gimmey's. Like, I expect we'll see 469 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 1: a rise in three D entertainment. We saw that, we 470 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 1: saw that increased steadily through two thousand nine. I think 471 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 1: two thousand and ten will continue that trend um, especially 472 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: since I think Avatar, Uh you know what, I was 473 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 1: a naysayer on Avatar early on. I didn't think it 474 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 1: was gonna the movie Avatar, Yeah, the James Cameron movie. 475 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: I was kind of a NASA aer. I didn't think 476 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 1: it was gonna be very good, but people I really 477 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 1: really respect who have seen that movie have been very 478 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 1: positive about it. And so I am willing to eat 479 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: crow and say, you know what, Uh, James Cameron proved 480 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 1: me wrong. Man. I'm I'm eager to see a fun 481 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: science fiction film. And I think that if he really 482 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,400 Speaker 1: has managed to completely changed the way movies are made, 483 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 1: that's awesome. So and if it disappoints you, where your 484 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 1: heart go on? Uh yeah, yeah, exactly. So. Well, That's 485 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: the other thing is that James Cameron has a history 486 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: of making these incredibly expensive movies that everyone thought there's 487 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: no way this film could ever recapture the cost it 488 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 1: made to create the film, especially with things like Titanic, 489 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 1: which had so many problems in the production sequence. A 490 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: lot of people had a sinking feeling about that. Exactly yeah, 491 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 1: spoiler alert, the boat sinks. But the the the film 492 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 1: made well more than what it costs to produce. And so, 493 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 1: I mean, Cameron, he just consistently amazes me. So I'm 494 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to being amazed again. But um, I 495 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 1: think we're gonna see a rise in telecommuting in companies 496 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,679 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see more and more companies, especially 497 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 1: new companies, start with a model where they move away 498 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: from the geographically centered office and they do more teleconferencing 499 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,640 Speaker 1: and teleworking. UM. I think we're gonna see a lot 500 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 1: more Internet ready televisions that can tap into the Internet 501 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 1: directly without the need for an additional box like a 502 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: Roku or an Apple TV. People are actually going to 503 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 1: buy them. I think that they're going to them. Yeah, 504 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,639 Speaker 1: they've had them, but I think that it's always been 505 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: like the high end televisions, and you hardly ever see 506 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 1: them in stores. I think, yeah, when you walk into 507 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: the Yes, I think when you walk into the instead 508 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 1: of just to the Internet, they will be accessible to people. 509 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: When you walk into an electronic store, I think you 510 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 1: will see them for sale. UM. I think virtualization is 511 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 1: going to be huge in two thousands ten, you're gonna 512 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 1: see a lot more companies moving to virtual computers as 513 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 1: opposed to UM to regular computers because it's usually less expensive, 514 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:43,000 Speaker 1: easier to maintain UM, easier to keep control of everything. 515 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 1: You don't have to worry about your employee getting upset, 516 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 1: taking his or her computer home, going and then showing 517 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 1: up at a competitor and handing all the information over. 518 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 1: I mean, there are a lot of reasons why virtualization 519 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 1: is is attractive. Um, then let's see I'm already said 520 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: that one If I said that one, oh, and we're 521 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 1: gonna see a lot more newspapers actually attempt what Murdoch 522 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 1: was saying and get behind a paywall, d list from Google, 523 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 1: or at least work with Google to no longer have 524 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:15,159 Speaker 1: their uh their information freely accessible through Google. And then 525 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,080 Speaker 1: we're gonna see all these other smaller newspapers and blogs 526 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 1: Russian to fill that niche, and those big newspapers are 527 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 1: gonna say, darn, we want our we want our ball back, 528 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 1: and we're gonna and we're gonna see them abandoned that 529 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 1: that business model. Yeah, but I don't know that you'll 530 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 1: see I'm abandoned it into They might, they might last 531 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 1: a year or two. They might try and hold a 532 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,440 Speaker 1: year or two. But I don't think that the subscription 533 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 1: based service is going to bring them the massive amount 534 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 1: of money they think they're going to get. Uh that 535 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 1: if it's gonna if if it brings the money, I 536 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be uh for more or less equivalent 537 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 1: to the money they make in web advertising, it's not 538 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 1: I mean, you might make up for it in uh 539 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 1: in the amount of money each individual person is willing 540 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 1: to pay, but you're gonna lose a lot of potential subscribers, 541 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 1: that is, all of them. So there we go. There 542 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: are all of our predictions, which means that at the 543 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 1: end of two thousand ten, we will once again listen 544 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 1: to this podcast and start to pull all of those 545 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: predictions together and see how we did. Hopefully I'll get 546 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: some time. The cool thing is that no matter what 547 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 1: we try to predict, there's always going to be stuff 548 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 1: that happens that neither of us could have ever guessed at. 549 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: And uh, you know, like, can you believe that Apple 550 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,239 Speaker 1: bought Microsoft? Who saw that coming? You know, something like that? 551 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 1: Something insane and you know we joke about it, but crazy. 552 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: I mean, two thousand nine was a year of mergers. 553 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 1: It's crazy. You know. I never thought i'd see Yahoo 554 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: and Microsoft shake hands over a search deal, but they have. 555 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 1: So whether that deal pans out, we still have to 556 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 1: wait and see. So if any of you have any 557 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: comments you'd like to, Oh wait, before I do that, 558 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 1: I totally forgot I have one more listener mail and 559 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: listen listening comes from Reese, and what Reese has to 560 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 1: say impacts directly our predictions. Reese says, Dear Chris and Jonathan, 561 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 1: one of my mother's friends works for Apple. I had 562 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 1: just recently listened to your podcast on the Apple tablet 563 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: and asked her about it. I was shocked to hear 564 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: her answer. The Apple tablet is indeed just a myth. 565 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 1: It was, however, an idea within the Apple realm. However, 566 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 1: they will be making many new products, just not this tablet. Sincerely, Reese, 567 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 1: Age eleven. So, folks, if we are wrong, it's Reese's fault. No, 568 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 1: just kidding, Reese, just kidding, Reese. Uh. We're we're betting 569 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 1: that the rumors are true. Um and if they If 570 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 1: we are wrong, we will give you kudos at the 571 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 1: end of two thousand ten. And Frank G Can tell 572 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 1: you how much those kudos are worth. If any of 573 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 1: you have any predictions you'd like us to know about, 574 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 1: or any other kind of comments, questions that sort of thing, 575 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 1: send us an email. Our address is tech Stuff at 576 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 1: how stuff works dot com. Remember we do have a 577 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: live show every Tuesday one pm. Over at the blogs. 578 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,720 Speaker 1: You can go to how stuff works dot com. Just 579 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 1: look at the blogs on the right hand side. Click 580 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: on any old link over there. You'll be able to 581 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: navigate through to the tech stuff blog and find the 582 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 1: link to our our handy dandy show where we give 583 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: technology news with a smile and sometimes a little dance. 584 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 1: And Chris and I will ta to you again really 585 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 1: soon for more on this and thousands of other topics. 586 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: Does it how stuff works dot com and be sure 587 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,840 Speaker 1: to check out the new tech Stuff Blog now on 588 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 1: the house stuff Works homepage. Brought to you by the 589 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, are you