1
00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm toom Keene along

2
00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jaileye. We bring you

3
00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment and international relations.

4
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance and Apple Podcast SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com

5
00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:30,000
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's bringing Lawrence

6
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 1: bourn Shall we obviously the chief economist out with that

7
00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,519
Speaker 1: forecast earlier this morning. Lawrence, fantastic to catch up with you.

8
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,320
Speaker 1: Can we just start right there the degree to which

9
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,920
Speaker 1: this stimulus plan, this relief plan down in d C,

10
00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,519
Speaker 1: has shaped your forecast for the year ahead. So actually

11
00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,960
Speaker 1: we're revising our forecast up words for two reasons. First,

12
00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,440
Speaker 1: you know, countries managed a little bitter the pandemic. Some

13
00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,800
Speaker 1: of them are even vaccinating that can reopen their economy.

14
00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,640
Speaker 1: And it is the one thing which has changed compared

15
00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,880
Speaker 1: with December is the one point nine true and U

16
00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,200
Speaker 1: S stimulus on top of the nine d billion in

17
00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:08,679
Speaker 1: December WITHINK that we lift and global GDP growth by

18
00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:12,760
Speaker 1: about a full percentage point. Lawrence, Good morning, Tom King

19
00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,160
Speaker 1: in New York, thank you so much for joining us.

20
00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:20,560
Speaker 1: I'm fascinated, Lawrens of the diffusement of the US prosperity

21
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 1: over the China. Do you lift China up in step

22
00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:28,280
Speaker 1: with America? So you know, China had gone out of

23
00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 1: the pandemic a little earlier than the US, and it's

24
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,920
Speaker 1: still going fast. You know, it has has been efited

25
00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:41,040
Speaker 1: actually from the demand for medical product, for I T product. Now,

26
00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,680
Speaker 1: there's one thing which hadn't changed in our projections. There

27
00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:49,240
Speaker 1: were tension in trade, you know, related to intellectual property rights, transfer,

28
00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:54,560
Speaker 1: technology support to state enterprises and there and with the

29
00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:59,200
Speaker 1: renewed the multilateral um where today with the new head

30
00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,080
Speaker 1: of the w T, within this this issue with start

31
00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:06,480
Speaker 1: being addressed. So there's a question about whether this really

32
00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 1: will benefit the rest of the world. In the sort

33
00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:12,000
Speaker 1: of reflationary mood that a lot of people were talking about.

34
00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,960
Speaker 1: If you do get the US driving growth, you get

35
00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,680
Speaker 1: a stronger dollar. Typically that is not necessarily positive for

36
00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,760
Speaker 1: a lot of the developing world. How do you see

37
00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,000
Speaker 1: that playing out and shifting the landscape for growth going forward.

38
00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,440
Speaker 1: So there's one thing we say in our projections is

39
00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 1: that the recovery is very uneven across the world. We're

40
00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:36,839
Speaker 1: seeing divergencies widening um. That has to do in particular,

41
00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,640
Speaker 1: I mean, in some instances with what's happening on commodity prices.

42
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,480
Speaker 1: But in most cases, you know, the driving factor of

43
00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 1: the driving force and engine of this of this outlook

44
00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,280
Speaker 1: is really what's happening on the headphont. So the divergencies

45
00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,560
Speaker 1: that we are seeing across countries today, they have to

46
00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 1: do with health management, with the pace of vaccination and

47
00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,560
Speaker 1: and with how many sectors and how large a shell

48
00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:08,000
Speaker 1: of employee cannot work because of the health situation. I

49
00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,639
Speaker 1: think we should really remain focus on this. That's how

50
00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,600
Speaker 1: main message. Other gir let's go to Europe. Then the

51
00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,519
Speaker 1: challenges of Europe right now, I know this, that and

52
00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,480
Speaker 1: the other thing I know Arounch you very much up

53
00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:22,320
Speaker 1: to speed on this. What is your timeline for prosperity

54
00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:27,200
Speaker 1: for Europe given the pandemic. So in Europe we have

55
00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,120
Speaker 1: very revised our outlook. You know, we think that they

56
00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:36,920
Speaker 1: renew with pre pandemic level by about mid twenty two,

57
00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,240
Speaker 1: which is roughly a year later than the US UM.

58
00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:44,440
Speaker 1: And that again has to do with how how vaccination

59
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,680
Speaker 1: and the and the and the heath crisis is being managed.

60
00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,520
Speaker 1: What we are telling you of is, you know, there's

61
00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:54,160
Speaker 1: a lot on fiscal support which is being done. Economically,

62
00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,600
Speaker 1: policies have been fantastic. Policy makers have done the job,

63
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:02,160
Speaker 1: but on vaccination they need to go much faster. If

64
00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,360
Speaker 1: we're at war with the virus. Really, up needs to

65
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 1: get on the wall footing now. Lauren spin always grit

66
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:10,920
Speaker 1: to catch out with you. Thanks for being with us

67
00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:19,039
Speaker 1: this morning, obviously chief economist right now, and this is

68
00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:23,159
Speaker 1: a really really important interview. There's something about being in

69
00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:27,279
Speaker 1: the crucible of market economics and market analysis and not

70
00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,359
Speaker 1: only getting it right, but getting it right with a

71
00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:33,000
Speaker 1: certain verve. Mark McCormick joins us now from Toronto Dominion Bank,

72
00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,120
Speaker 1: their global head of FX Strategy market. I want you

73
00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,120
Speaker 1: to revisit how you frame the dollars three months and

74
00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,719
Speaker 1: six months ago, and then of course give us the

75
00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:46,320
Speaker 1: now what sure? Thanks, um. It's all about a rotation

76
00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:50,880
Speaker 1: from the liquidity trade to one macro divergen straight and

77
00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,480
Speaker 1: so the dollar kind of sitting at the epicenter of that.

78
00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,919
Speaker 1: The market was positioned purely on liquidity, purely on low rates,

79
00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,520
Speaker 1: low term premium, and that was the benefactor of a

80
00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 1: week er dollars. If you only thought about what the

81
00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,640
Speaker 1: FETE could be doing, you you extrapolated that trend into

82
00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,920
Speaker 1: a week US dollar for the entire year, behind the scenes,

83
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,960
Speaker 1: growth was diverging, the vaccine campaign was getting off to

84
00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,200
Speaker 1: better starts the United States, And if you fast forward

85
00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,640
Speaker 1: to where we're at now, we're seeing a much stronger

86
00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,839
Speaker 1: dollar reconnecting with real yields because we're seeing more macro

87
00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,800
Speaker 1: volatility come through the markets, through the VIX, through the move,

88
00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,760
Speaker 1: and through currency ball, and that is flushing out all

89
00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,840
Speaker 1: these stale positions right now, what do you respond? How

90
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,240
Speaker 1: do you respond? I should say to the week dollar crew,

91
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:33,599
Speaker 1: it's clearly consensus. I know they've got to cover that trade.

92
00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,080
Speaker 1: But but how do you respond to them and say

93
00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 1: there'll be a resiliency to dollar? Well, I think it

94
00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,440
Speaker 1: also depends to it's critical moving forward out of this

95
00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:46,080
Speaker 1: positioning stage or this positioning element behind this transition of

96
00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:49,039
Speaker 1: which basket you're looking at. I absolutely we are still

97
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,039
Speaker 1: very bullish on the dollar versus the euro. But I

98
00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,240
Speaker 1: think what you can think about is over the next month,

99
00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,840
Speaker 1: after we see this rates move flushed out, there is

100
00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,480
Speaker 1: an element where the factors that we're tracking in markets

101
00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:01,440
Speaker 1: that are making in the effects. It's terms of trade,

102
00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,719
Speaker 1: so it's linked to the commodity cycle. It's about Carrie.

103
00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,440
Speaker 1: So again you'ld pick up is important, but it's critically

104
00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,280
Speaker 1: most important. It's all about economic growth. So you can

105
00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,000
Speaker 1: see a world where in G ten European currencies underperform,

106
00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,880
Speaker 1: but you could also see currencies that are leveraged to

107
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:20,120
Speaker 1: the global reflation cycle still doing well. So your commodity currencies,

108
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,560
Speaker 1: you're undervalued. Em currencies also em Asia can now perform.

109
00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:26,120
Speaker 1: So it's gonna be I think a mixed dollar in

110
00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,039
Speaker 1: the second half of the year. And that's part of

111
00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,320
Speaker 1: this washout, this correlations break down, and it's no longer

112
00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,160
Speaker 1: dollar up, dollar down. You've used that phrase three times,

113
00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:36,680
Speaker 1: wash out, flush out, and I want to talk about

114
00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:38,680
Speaker 1: it with you right now. This is how you get

115
00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:42,359
Speaker 1: whip sword making big trades. You get sucked into what

116
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,880
Speaker 1: looks like a flush out, then you extrapolate it out

117
00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,120
Speaker 1: as the new trend. Mark how complex is that as

118
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,159
Speaker 1: you look at things right now, and how difficult is

119
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,640
Speaker 1: it to actually draw a line between something that's just

120
00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:54,839
Speaker 1: a wash out and something that's the beginning of a

121
00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,120
Speaker 1: new trend. Yeah, it's a great question because it's the

122
00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,280
Speaker 1: context of the economic cycle. Are rates rising because the

123
00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,320
Speaker 1: global economy is doing better, and that's a critical element.

124
00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:06,840
Speaker 1: The Taper tantrum was all about rates rising. We had

125
00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:10,440
Speaker 1: mediocre economic growth through that period. What we see now

126
00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,920
Speaker 1: is if we go back to two thousand seventeen, reflation

127
00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,520
Speaker 1: rates are rising because economic growth expectations are rising. What

128
00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,920
Speaker 1: we absolutely are seeing now is a combination that is

129
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,240
Speaker 1: very similar to that, where rates are rising to validate

130
00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,560
Speaker 1: the rising global growth expectations, which is coming through on

131
00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,760
Speaker 1: the normalization of economic mobility. We're starting to see the

132
00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,080
Speaker 1: breaks between COVID numbers and economic mobility, which is a

133
00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:36,280
Speaker 1: huge element where vaccines have changed the way that people

134
00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,680
Speaker 1: can move around the economy more so it's not back

135
00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,400
Speaker 1: to pre COVID levels, but there's a higher new level

136
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:43,960
Speaker 1: of equilibrium, which means we need more of all and

137
00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,040
Speaker 1: we need higher real rates. So in the context of that,

138
00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,320
Speaker 1: what matters for Marks now is that real rates are

139
00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,640
Speaker 1: validating the moving economic growth. And you know, on the

140
00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,480
Speaker 1: side of it, there's obviously liquidity and other technical factors

141
00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,679
Speaker 1: that are happening in rates, But once this settles down,

142
00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,880
Speaker 1: it's a good equal librium for for risk assets, and

143
00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 1: so it's not purely a return to US exceptionalism. It's

144
00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,520
Speaker 1: a blending of global reflation and exceptionalism, I think for

145
00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,640
Speaker 1: the second half of the year. So another way of

146
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,760
Speaker 1: saying that is there's been a pain trade. It might

147
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,480
Speaker 1: be ongoing for a bit longer, but once that's over,

148
00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,280
Speaker 1: the narrative that was at the end of last year

149
00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,960
Speaker 1: will continue and reassert itself. Can you just talk about

150
00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,880
Speaker 1: how much further the pain trade has to go? Sure,

151
00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:24,960
Speaker 1: I'd say we we got at least another month. If

152
00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,160
Speaker 1: we look at our just our positioning model, think about

153
00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,880
Speaker 1: the pain trade, Um, we're still talking about a dollar

154
00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,600
Speaker 1: short that's a little under a standard aviation. So we

155
00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,560
Speaker 1: are not even close to neutral levels yet. Um So,

156
00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:37,840
Speaker 1: even if you look at some of the valuation models

157
00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:39,559
Speaker 1: that we look at, what we see is that G

158
00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:43,480
Speaker 1: ten currencies are still slightly overvalued. We're e M currencies

159
00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,040
Speaker 1: are the one trading at a discount. So we haven't

160
00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,040
Speaker 1: seen the full wash out play out in effect, and

161
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,520
Speaker 1: again we still probably have. On the real rates models

162
00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 1: that we look at that are global macro based, we

163
00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,480
Speaker 1: could still see another twenty five basis points in real rates.

164
00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,120
Speaker 1: So if you see that again within the content, it's

165
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,720
Speaker 1: the FED coming next week, DCB next week. We've got

166
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,400
Speaker 1: all these major central banks. If the moves are allowed

167
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,440
Speaker 1: to progress, suggesting that again that it's the economy is

168
00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,000
Speaker 1: doing better, then that means there's more room for the dollars.

169
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,280
Speaker 1: So again it's maybe in broad terms, another one and

170
00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 1: a half two percent again against all major currencies. But

171
00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,720
Speaker 1: again Euro is now testing the one A team level.

172
00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,760
Speaker 1: We could probably see a marginal breakthrough there. But again

173
00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,719
Speaker 1: I would say this is probably about another month to

174
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,440
Speaker 1: six weeks um in terms of this pain trade across effects. Mark.

175
00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:30,840
Speaker 1: I think the point you're trying to make here more

176
00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,040
Speaker 1: broadly is that we're always looking for this broad based

177
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,560
Speaker 1: directional trade that we can all just get behind and

178
00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:37,480
Speaker 1: it chucks along through the year. And you're talking about

179
00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,360
Speaker 1: nuance and dispersion within the m Walk me through the nuance. Now,

180
00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,360
Speaker 1: just to wrap things up, what's the favorite? Is there

181
00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,160
Speaker 1: a latam lane is in Mexico? Is it the Paso

182
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 1: winner off the back of a huge plan in d C?

183
00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,920
Speaker 1: What is it? So it's gonna be interesting is because

184
00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,320
Speaker 1: each of those baskets gonna trade differently. So if you

185
00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,679
Speaker 1: go through Latam, you'd probably want to pick currencies that

186
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,720
Speaker 1: are leveraged to the commodity cycle, leveraged to North American growth,

187
00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,319
Speaker 1: and also trade it at cheap valuation. So um R

188
00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,880
Speaker 1: e M team like selling dollar max rallies and again

189
00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:06,640
Speaker 1: you can see there's a nice discount. And if we

190
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,040
Speaker 1: get the one triller one point nine trillion in US

191
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:13,240
Speaker 1: fiscal in a three trillion US infrastructure package, North America

192
00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,760
Speaker 1: looks solid. You got the Canadian dollar in the Mexican

193
00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:20,280
Speaker 1: pay so should outperform other currencies across other regions. Um

194
00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:22,439
Speaker 1: and again, if you go to something like the ruble,

195
00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,520
Speaker 1: the ruble would do well in that backdrop as well,

196
00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,960
Speaker 1: given its link to commodity prices. It's also like quicker,

197
00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,280
Speaker 1: we're out of time. I know you're a rate strategist

198
00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:36,920
Speaker 1: as well to the foreigners show up to buy the auctions. Well,

199
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 1: that's a that's a big element. I think that's a

200
00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,720
Speaker 1: big part of what pre is UH call is along

201
00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,679
Speaker 1: with the US rates team is there is an element

202
00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,240
Speaker 1: where supply is going to drive up rates a little

203
00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,760
Speaker 1: bit higher in the short run, so the auctions cannot

204
00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:50,959
Speaker 1: go maybe as well as people are expecting, and that's

205
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,320
Speaker 1: part of the continued sell off. We getting rates in

206
00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:55,880
Speaker 1: the next month, um, and that would also you know,

207
00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,839
Speaker 1: drive this pain trade Mark. Congratulations on your call. It's

208
00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:08,000
Speaker 1: so out of consensus. Is just wonderful. Right now, we're

209
00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,199
Speaker 1: gonna stagger the Minneapolis there was a freeze there. It's

210
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,400
Speaker 1: a gorgeosity sixty seven degrees heading towards New York. James

211
00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,840
Speaker 1: Paulson joins us now Chief investment Officer luth Old at

212
00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:22,720
Speaker 1: Wheedon as well. Jim, how do you reclibrate given all

213
00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:26,400
Speaker 1: the turmoil of two thousand twenty into the first three

214
00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:31,640
Speaker 1: months of this year, how do you reset right now? Huh? Well,

215
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,280
Speaker 1: I I just I think I'm just most focused on

216
00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,360
Speaker 1: you know, um, you know, in my in my entire career,

217
00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:40,920
Speaker 1: going back to ninety eight three time, UM, my biggest,

218
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,520
Speaker 1: my fastest growth rade I've ever experienced in the calendar

219
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,600
Speaker 1: year was four when it was a little over eight percent. UM.

220
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,600
Speaker 1: I think we got a shot of taking that out

221
00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,920
Speaker 1: this year, of having growth that's north of eight. And

222
00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,600
Speaker 1: if we do, that's growth that we haven't seen maybe

223
00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,760
Speaker 1: only a handful of times in the entirety of post

224
00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,319
Speaker 1: war history, and that is the big elephant in the room. Um.

225
00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,520
Speaker 1: You can talk about UM inflation coming up a little bit,

226
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,040
Speaker 1: you can talk about interest rates coming up a little bit.

227
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,760
Speaker 1: But if we have anything in that ballpark or growth,

228
00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,120
Speaker 1: we're also going to have earnings which are much higher

229
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:18,120
Speaker 1: than people currently have forecasted for this year, probably more

230
00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,760
Speaker 1: like two in the SMP. And with that, at least

231
00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,400
Speaker 1: for this year, it's just gonna be hard, I think

232
00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:28,120
Speaker 1: to keep a good equity down long term here over

233
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,160
Speaker 1: the course of this year, very long. If you're going

234
00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:32,800
Speaker 1: to give me that type of growth, and if we're

235
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:37,840
Speaker 1: also talking like five growth in boy, you know, we

236
00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,199
Speaker 1: we could have a lot of interest rate and inflation

237
00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,080
Speaker 1: pressure and still have an equity market that could do

238
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,120
Speaker 1: pretty well in that environment. Jim, I think that final

239
00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,320
Speaker 1: points the big point two and whether this year ends

240
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,679
Speaker 1: in June and people start thinking about hang on a minute,

241
00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,080
Speaker 1: huge growth, we're all position for that. Now, what does

242
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:54,920
Speaker 1: twenty two look like? What does twenty two look like

243
00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:59,880
Speaker 1: to you? Well? I agree with that, I got Jonathan.

244
00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:02,559
Speaker 1: I I'm pretty confident for this year. And and and

245
00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,400
Speaker 1: if we run hard this year, let's say through the fall,

246
00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,480
Speaker 1: we could get a big correction at some point two

247
00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,600
Speaker 1: is going to be an adjustment year. I think, um,

248
00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,880
Speaker 1: where we're gonna have to figure out whether inflation is

249
00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,560
Speaker 1: for real or not. And I'm still a little bit

250
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,640
Speaker 1: on the fence on that. We've certainly are police officials

251
00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:23,400
Speaker 1: have done everything they possibly could to create inflation, in

252
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,280
Speaker 1: my book, and we've done more than ever before to

253
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:29,320
Speaker 1: create inflation. The problem is against that We've got a

254
00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,920
Speaker 1: lot of disinflationary force in the world with nasty and

255
00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:37,640
Speaker 1: continued bad global demographics, including here and also the leading

256
00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:41,360
Speaker 1: the leading force of the emerging world story. China has

257
00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 1: worst demographics than any of us. Um, that's a pretty

258
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:49,040
Speaker 1: powerful displaced force. We've got a technology sector leading the

259
00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,599
Speaker 1: world which is nothing but excuse inflation or disinflation everywhere

260
00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:58,600
Speaker 1: and its path and that's going to continue overall. Um,

261
00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 1: We've had falling monitor Harry velocity for more than a

262
00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,040
Speaker 1: decade and and uh, you know, so you can maybe

263
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,199
Speaker 1: handle a lot of money growth with without the type

264
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 1: of velocity we used to have. We have disinflationary mindsets

265
00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,760
Speaker 1: in the world after thirty years of disinflation that are

266
00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,240
Speaker 1: that are tough I think to uh to change or altar,

267
00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 1: and I think we're gonna get a pick up in productivity,

268
00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,040
Speaker 1: because when I look back historically, when you have a

269
00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 1: big run in growth stocks over the last several years,

270
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,400
Speaker 1: you typically that is fouled rather regularly by a pickup

271
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 1: in productivity. So, my guests, I tell a little bit,

272
00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,160
Speaker 1: We're inflation is going to be a burst coming in

273
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,040
Speaker 1: the next twelve months, and then it's going to calm

274
00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 1: back down again and maybe allow this recovery to continue

275
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 1: over for several more years. Game plans on, Jim, let's

276
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,240
Speaker 1: do it. Then growth is going to be better in

277
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,160
Speaker 1: the middle of this year, inflation is going to pick out,

278
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,360
Speaker 1: the base effects kick in. We know all this, and

279
00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,760
Speaker 1: what's amazing, I keep repeating it, Take a bill, take

280
00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,080
Speaker 1: a bad agree on the same thing, and at some

281
00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,440
Speaker 1: point you start to get a huge tug of wall

282
00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 1: between the people that think is transient and the people

283
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 1: that think it's all the people who think rights will

284
00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 1: rise in the people that think they won't. If you

285
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,480
Speaker 1: start to get volatility off the back of that tongue

286
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,960
Speaker 1: of war, what's your game plan? How do you step

287
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:12,440
Speaker 1: into risk or step out? How do you approach that story? Well,

288
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,680
Speaker 1: I think you do a couple of things. I I

289
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,760
Speaker 1: think you want to minimize your exposure to bonds yet

290
00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,320
Speaker 1: uh in bonds exposures, UH interest rate exposure. They just

291
00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:24,080
Speaker 1: want to just have that absolutely minimized. I think you

292
00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:28,760
Speaker 1: want to stay uh more cyclically orientated here. UM. And

293
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,800
Speaker 1: I think you want to be away from the United States. UM.

294
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,720
Speaker 1: I grow this is a synchronized recovery, and those markets

295
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,120
Speaker 1: are coming back to that, but they're not gonna feel

296
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 1: I don't think they're the pressure uh that we're going

297
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,040
Speaker 1: to get here in the United States going into two

298
00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,400
Speaker 1: from from overheat pressure. So I would have a good

299
00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:49,800
Speaker 1: overweight away from the United States. Now beyond that, UM,

300
00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 1: I kind of I think it's gonna be really difficult

301
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,480
Speaker 1: to call this correction when it comes UM, but we

302
00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:59,480
Speaker 1: can all try. UM. If we really get excited here, Jonathan,

303
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 1: and we go a lot higher, let's say we blow

304
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:05,640
Speaker 1: through four thousand, go up to something here. I probably

305
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,040
Speaker 1: would take some octane off in park it in cash

306
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,280
Speaker 1: for a period of time and see if we can't

307
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 1: get a sentiment correction that could be pretty big and

308
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,760
Speaker 1: pretty nasty. UM. And if if we do have one

309
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,440
Speaker 1: of those, then maybe reevaluate that point, whether I think

310
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 1: we have a sustainable recovery going on. Part of it

311
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,320
Speaker 1: is more information is going to come. Yet, if we

312
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,080
Speaker 1: get towards this year end and the unemployment rate, you know,

313
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 1: is heading towards four or something, I have a very

314
00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,120
Speaker 1: different approach perhaps going in twenty two two. Then if

315
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 1: we get there and we're still at five percent or something,

316
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 1: how tight are the resource markets and looking as we

317
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 1: head into that uh next year. So I'm gonna let

318
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 1: some of that play out. But some of this also

319
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 1: matters about whether the market goes nuts between now and

320
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,680
Speaker 1: then or whether it corrects. So Jim, there's also a

321
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,760
Speaker 1: question about big tech because if you see the longer

322
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 1: term trend remaining the way it has been, a low inflation,

323
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:58,760
Speaker 1: slower growth environment, is it time to buy big tech

324
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:04,080
Speaker 1: on the step? Well, here I'm underweight a big tag.

325
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: I just think it's not so much you have a

326
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,560
Speaker 1: problem with technology. I think they're going to continue to

327
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,400
Speaker 1: dominate the world for over the next five ten years.

328
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 1: I really do, But I think they're earnings growth at

329
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,199
Speaker 1: this point doesn't look as good as relative to what

330
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,200
Speaker 1: small caps can be doing right now, our cyclical sectors,

331
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 1: or or even more commodity oriented plays. Um so, but

332
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,119
Speaker 1: I would still own tech, and I still do. I.

333
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:29,320
Speaker 1: I just have an underway to position. If you're gonna

334
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 1: win in this market, you've got to be in the

335
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,640
Speaker 1: broader market place, which are more cyclical. Lisa, the problem

336
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,680
Speaker 1: with that is it means that you're gonna be introduce

337
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,199
Speaker 1: yourself to downside draws that could be fairly dramatic. The

338
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 1: way to balance that is to continue to own technology.

339
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,639
Speaker 1: When this market pulls back on on overheat concerns. I

340
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 1: think technology holds up a little bit and I'd much

341
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 1: rather hold that than I would other defensive sectors. Jimmy

342
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,639
Speaker 1: small shop as always great to buy. Jim posting that

343
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:06,240
Speaker 1: healthwaite and capital management right now on the headline that

344
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,480
Speaker 1: I'm sure all of you saw yesterday from the c

345
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 1: d C of Atlanta, Amashdalga joins US with JOHNS. Hopkins

346
00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 1: Center for Health Security. Dr Adelga, I remember c DC

347
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,400
Speaker 1: is the cool place to work. A million years ago.

348
00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,120
Speaker 1: They did malaria out of World War two and then

349
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:27,879
Speaker 1: built and built out the excellence of America in microbiology

350
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,920
Speaker 1: and virilogy. That headline yesterday, when you saw it, how

351
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 1: did you respond? I thought this was something that was

352
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 1: well anticipated that people wanted to get guidance like this,

353
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,960
Speaker 1: and I expected the CDC guidance to be cautious, and

354
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 1: I think they were pretty cautious. But at least it

355
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 1: shows people what the future holds. And it's important to

356
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,879
Speaker 1: remember that this CDC guidance is a first iteration. It

357
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 1: is something that will be that will evolve as more

358
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 1: data becomes available and as the CDC gets more comfortable,

359
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 1: So expect this to be revised and and more and

360
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,199
Speaker 1: more guidance changed of those who are vaccinated. And it

361
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,919
Speaker 1: really shows you why vaccination is important, why it will

362
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 1: change your life and give you your life back. Dr Adulter,

363
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,600
Speaker 1: Why are they being so conservative with their approach. I

364
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 1: think they're being conservative because they're a big public health agency.

365
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 1: They're talking about population health. They want to get it

366
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 1: completely right. They they've had some missteps during the early

367
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 1: parts of this pandemic and they don't want to relive that,

368
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 1: so they're going to make a decision that's data driven.

369
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,880
Speaker 1: So once they think enough data has accumulated, for example,

370
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 1: on asymptomatic spread, maybe from countries like Israel where so

371
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 1: many people have been vaccinated, they're going to have this

372
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 1: threshold cross and then they're going to make it make

373
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 1: a change. So I think it's it's not uncommon for

374
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 1: public health agencies to be more cautious than what like

375
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,400
Speaker 1: what I, as an individual infectious disease doctor might tell

376
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,199
Speaker 1: my patients who has been vaccinated. So so I do

377
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: think it's it's it's par for the course, that's what

378
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,639
Speaker 1: we expected. That the weight of the risks, though, aren't equal.

379
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: The idea that the more people who get vaccinated, the

380
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 1: more the transmission mechanisms seems to be broken, and we

381
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 1: see a decline in the number of cases. Can we

382
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 1: get a sense of how much the vaccination that have

383
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,959
Speaker 1: already been distributed have already reduced the spread of the virus,

384
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 1: and if we got it that much more quickly, if

385
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 1: we'd have that much slower of a spread, that the

386
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: general principle hold, But it's very hard to untangle mask

387
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 1: wearing social distancing. How much population immunity is around because

388
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: people got infected plus the vaccine. The vaccine component is

389
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,879
Speaker 1: going to increase over time, and each new vaccine that

390
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,439
Speaker 1: goes into someone's arms makes the life of that virus

391
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 1: very very makes it more difficult because they have less

392
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,639
Speaker 1: people that they can infect. But it's hard to know

393
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,200
Speaker 1: exactly what happens there. But I do think you're going

394
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 1: to see, for example, if you can gather indoors with

395
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 1: vaccinated people, what's the difference between doing that and having

396
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 1: vaccinated people in a restaurant. It's probably not that big

397
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 1: of a difference. And I think you're gonna see more

398
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 1: guidance tied to reopenings of certain restaurants and capacity as

399
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: they get more comfortable. As we get more data, we

400
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,640
Speaker 1: might tremendous progress. And some states are already moving forward

401
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 1: pretty quickly. Texas reopening dropping the mass man date. I

402
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 1: think Wyoming joining them in the last twenty four hours.

403
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 1: That will start next week, I believe, doctor. How concerned

404
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 1: are you about that right now? I'm concerned about one

405
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 1: aspect of it, and that's dropping of the mask mandates.

406
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 1: I think there's an argument to be made for capacity,

407
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 1: increasing capacity at stores and increasing capacity at restaurants, But

408
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,640
Speaker 1: in order to do that safely from a business continuity perspective,

409
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 1: you want your patrons, you want your employees to still

410
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 1: be wearing masks, because there's still tens of thousands of

411
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: cases occurring every day, we still don't have enough people vaccinated.

412
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 1: So I do think keeping the masks in place for

413
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 1: some time until we get further along than this vaccination

414
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 1: rollout is going to make it easier to stay at

415
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 1: that high capacity level without getting exposures, without getting cases

416
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 1: among your employees and patrons, and having to do quarantine

417
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 1: and contact racings. So I think that I think we

418
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 1: should separate those two things. Dr Delga. The President will

419
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 1: lay out the path forward on Thursday. And part of

420
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: this is the mystery of what you're very comfortable with,

421
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 1: which is these viruses, How do they go away? If

422
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: we all get vaccinated, like for small pox or name

423
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 1: the other horrific illness or covid, where do the bad

424
00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 1: viruses go? Well, smallpox is the only human disease that's

425
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 1: ever been eradicated, and that's really an exception that proves

426
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 1: the rule. It's very hard to eradicate a disease, and

427
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: a disease like COVID nineteen, which comes from a family

428
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 1: of viruses that causes about our common colds, spreads very

429
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 1: efficiently and also has an unknown intermediate animal host, meaning

430
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 1: we know it comes from batch, but we don't know

431
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 1: where else. It comes from. It's already when it's put

432
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 1: itself into MINX. That's not something that's going to ever

433
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 1: go to zero. We're not going to eradicate or eliminate

434
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. What we're going to do is make it

435
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 1: much more controllable. We're going to defang it so it

436
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: cannot cause serious disease, hospitalization, death, or ever threaten the

437
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 1: hospital capacity. Again. So so it's not something about making

438
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: it go completely away. It's making it a manageable problem.

439
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 1: More like other respiratory viruses and the vaccines, all of

440
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,479
Speaker 1: them do that very very well. The question I think

441
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,239
Speaker 1: many people are asking doctor is if we do get

442
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 1: a new variant, how quickly these vaccines, these new m

443
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: R and A vaccines can respond to that. The lads

444
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 1: on the lack of times that to spake, how quickly

445
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: do you think we can respond immediately? M R and

446
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 1: A vaccines can basically be tweaked at in a matter

447
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: of days or may even a matter of hours. It's

448
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: just the question of then doing having enough production capacity

449
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 1: to put a new a new vaccine or a new

450
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 1: version of the vaccine out there. But I don't think

451
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: we're across that threshold because even when you look at

452
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: those variants, the variants of concern P one and one, three, five,

453
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: all of those, even in the face of those variants

454
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 1: of the vaccines still stop. What matters serious disease, hospitalization

455
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 1: and death. And to me, that's the threshold that we

456
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 1: have to worry about, not mild disease, but is are

457
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 1: people getting vaccinated and then getting breakthrough infections that are

458
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: landing them in the hospital. The answer I to my knowledge,

459
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: is no, that's not happened, and that to me is

460
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 1: the threshold for where we tweak the vaccines. Such a

461
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: good final point delta and we appreciate your time and

462
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: your own gun contribution to this probabgram Jones Helkins, Sense

463
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: for House Security, Sadi Escalta. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

464
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to

465
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 1: ten am Eastern I'm Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television

466
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from

467
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and Internet sational relations.

468
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:06,120
Speaker 1: And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

469
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal I'm

470
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg