WEBVTT - Is Flu Season Really as Dangerous as We're Told? 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:02.440 Guess what, mango, what's that? Well, do you remember a 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:04.960 few weeks ago when we talked to Daniel Pink about 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:08.639 the science of perfect timing? What if I said no, like, 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:11.399 would you be concerned about that? That? Maybe a little 0:00:11.400 --> 0:00:13.520 bit concerned because this was just a few weeks ago, 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:16.560 but especially because it was a super interesting episode and 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:20.079 conversation and just all of that talk about how timing 0:00:20.160 --> 0:00:22.880 matters in so many ways that we don't stop and 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:25.200 think about. You know, one of the things we talked 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.040 about was how much timing matters when it comes to 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:30.160 medical treatments, like when not to have a surgery or 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:32.559 when to go to the doctor. But you know, one 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:35.000 of the things we didn't talk about were the strange 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:38.519 findings around the time of day and getting vaccinations and 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:41.479 other specific medical treatments wait at the time of day 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:44.559 matters from vaccinations. Yeah, So there was this really interesting 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:48.040 story about this in Scientific American and everything from cancer 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:51.720 treatments to flu shots can trigger slightly different responses in 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.280 our bodies depending on the time of day that we 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:56.920 get them. So with flu shots, a few studies have 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:59.800 actually found that those who got flu shots before eleven 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:02.840 a m produced more antibodies than those who got them 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:06.600 later in the afternoon, which is so strange. It really is, 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.039 and it's yet another reminder of just how much we 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.360 have to learn about our body clocks and the way 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:13.840 they work. But back to the flu. I mean, we 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.560 wanted to focus today's episode on answering some of the 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:20.400 many questions people have, like why are some flu seasons 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:23.440 worse than others, how do scientists know when some seasons 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:26.880 will be particularly bad, and what goes into deciding what 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.840 this year's vaccine is going to look like. Those are 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:32.160 just a few of the questions we're answering today. So 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:55.720 let's dive in Y today their podcast listeners, Welcome to 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:58.200 Part Time Genius. I'm Will Pearson, and as always I'm 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:00.600 joined by my good friend man guest ticket and on 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:04.280 the other side of the soundproof glass offering complimentary flu shots. 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:07.240 I think, yeah, that's what the sign says to anybody 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:09.240 brave enough to take him on it. That's our friend 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:12.720 and producer Tristan McNeil. I mean, it is a nice gesture, 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:16.080 don't you think, Mango. Yeah, although probably an illegal one too, 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:19.120 I'm guessing. Well, either way, he's getting a lot of 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:21.760 side eye glances from people around the office today. But 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:24.560 I can't say I blame the guy for wanting to 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:27.760 take some precautions. I mean, you know, personally vaccinating all 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:31.359 your coworkers might be an extreme reaction. But yeah, there's 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:34.200 no denying that this year's flu season is a pretty 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.720 rough one. For example, I was looking at some of 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:40.160 the stats and the latest flu update from January nineteenth, 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:43.440 the CDC reports that thirty two states plus New York 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:47.239 City in Puerto Rico are currently experiencing what's considered high 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:50.640 flu activity, and things aren't much better in other states. 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:53.200 In fact, Hawaii is actually the only U. S state 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:57.120 that's not experiencing widespread flu activity. Yeah, but I mean, 0:02:57.240 --> 0:02:59.560 it's all sad to deal with false alarms around missile strikes, 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.440 so it's it's a bit of a trade off. I guess. Yeah, 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:04.760 that's a fair point. But you know, as you might 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:07.560 have guessed, today's show is all about influenza or is 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.519 it's better known just the flu, And we're gonna talk 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:12.880 a little bit about what the illness is and how 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:15.240 it spreads, as well as some of the clever ways 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:18.519 analysts have found to track flu activity. But we also 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:21.280 want to debunk some of the popular misconceptions around the flu. 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:23.560 And you know, since I just brought up the severity 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:25.880 of this year's flu season, I do want to make 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:28.359 sure we put some of that hype in perspective. Yeah, 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:29.680 I mean, you don't want to give the flu a 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:32.680 bad name or anything, right, I mean, you know, people talk, 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:35.520 but seriously, you know, while there have been close to 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:39.960 nine thousand influence of related hospitalization since October of last year, 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:43.640 the overall hospitalization rate is actually down from the two 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:47.160 thousand fourteen two thousand fifteen season, which was considered a 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:50.560 very high severity season. So all, this year's flu season 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:53.040 is a bad one. It is an unprecedented and we've 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.720 actually dealt with worse in recent years. Yeah. It's also 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.200 worth keeping in mind that the CDC announced on January 0:03:59.200 --> 0:04:02.040 twelve that flu activity has likely peaked for the season, 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.680 which is a good thing. Although even if the worst 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:07.240 is over, officials say there's still about three months to 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:10.240 go until the illness is gone for the season. Oh wow, 0:04:10.280 --> 0:04:12.080 so it is still a good idea to get that 0:04:12.120 --> 0:04:16.200 flu shot. Just I don't know, maybe not from TRISCA. Right. Well, 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:18.400 while we're setting to the record straight about the flu. 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:20.920 We should probably address one of the biggest myths about it, 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:23.359 which is that you can use antibiotics to treat it. 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:25.920 And this is something a lot of people swear by, 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.000 but the truth is that antibiotics only respond to illness 0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:31.920 is caused by bacteria, and since the flu is born 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:35.840 from virus, not bacteria, antibiotics actually don't have any effect 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:37.719 on it. Yeah, you know, and this is something I 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.240 think many of our listeners probably already know. But it 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:43.360 is surprising when you read survey after survey of people 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.839 misunderstanding this. So so why do you think it trips 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:47.880 up so many people. Well, part of it is that 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.360 a viral infection of the nose thrown lungs can sometimes 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:55.839 lead to bacterial illnesses like bronchitis. Like antibiotics do have 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.440 an effect on this kind of secondary bacterial infection, so 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:01.839 sometimes as people credit them for helping with both kinds 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.880 of illness. And that kind of confusion was especially common 0:05:04.880 --> 0:05:07.680 a few decades ago when it was really popular with 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:11.520 doctors to preemptively prescribe antibiotics to flu patients. This was 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:14.000 kind of a way to ward off the bacterial complications. 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:16.640 And you know, once the patients began to feel better, 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:20.839 they had mistakenly attribute the recovery to these trusty antibiotics. Yeah, 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:23.120 and I think the other confusion is around the stomach 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:26.039 flu though, too. I mean, I think antibotics typically do 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:28.920 help with that, right, Yeah they do. I mean that's 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:31.920 only because the stomach flu isn't a real thing, or 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:35.480 at least it's not actually influenza. So remember, the flu 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:38.919 is of respiratory illness caused by viruses. It has nothing 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:42.520 to do with the gastro intestinal system. But people associate 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:45.120 the general feeling of awfulness they get from stomach sickness 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:47.479 with that of having, you know, a nasty case of 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:50.640 the flu. So any kind of stomach bug or food 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:53.520 born illness just gets labeled the flu. Well, and you know, 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:56.359 since antibotics would actually help with the kind of bacteria 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:59.080 you deal with in food poisoning, that's I don't know, 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:01.839 maybe another reason for this whole myth about that helping 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.479 them with the flu. Yeah, that's right. I mean people 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.240 just hone in on the time antibiotics help them kick 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:10.120 the stomach flu. Yeah. Well, you know, another misconception about 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:13.000 the flu is how it's spread. You know, most people 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:15.160 know the illness can be spread by others through these 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.839 droplets of fluid that we expel when we cough or 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:21.279 sneeze or even just talk. And these droplets can be 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.279 launched as far as six feet, which makes it easy 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:26.840 for them to land in people's mouths or noses. It's 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:28.920 just nasty to think about it, but you know they're 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.320 inhaling them into their lungs as well, so it's it's 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:35.480 pretty easy to spread that. It's so gross to think about. Yeah, 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:37.320 but you know, the other way to spread the flu 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:40.920 is through contact with contaminated objects, and this is where 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.839 some folks get mixed up. Again, many of our listeners 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.320 probably already know this, but it is something that comes 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:49.320 up time and again people not understanding it is. And 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:51.680 that's that the flu is not transferred through the skin. 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:53.760 So you're not going to get sick by just touching 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:56.800 a contaminated door knob or shaking hands with somebody who 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:59.279 has the flu. So I mean we should talk about 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:01.520 why it's to keep washing your hands during the flu 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.240 season though, well, because with the fluid goes back to 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:06.239 the nose and the mouth, so if you touch something 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:08.479 coated with the virus and then you touch your nose 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:11.679 or mouth, that's when the infection occurs. And of course 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:13.800 this is why you definitely don't want to share dishes 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.120 or utensils with somebody who has the flu either. I mean, 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:19.200 I don't want to share those things with anyone period. 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:22.680 But that's definitely good advice. So one crazy statistic I 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:25.760 found while researching is that approximately one third of families 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:29.120 with schoolish children are actually infected with the flu each year. 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.400 A third. I mean, that's insane, And I think one 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:34.640 reason that's the case is that spreading the flu might 0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:37.800 be even easier than we think. And how's that. Well, 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.120 according to a new study from the University of Maryland, 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:42.800 breathing alone is enough to spread the flu virus, never 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:46.800 mind sneezing or coughing. So what happened was researchers gathered 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:49.600 bread samples from a hundred forty two people who were 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:52.920 confirmed to have the flu, and after testing those samples, 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.240 it was found that nearly half of the fine aerosol 0:07:55.360 --> 0:08:00.360 droplets collected during normal breathing contained viral r n A. Alright, 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:03.679 so so just exhaling can cause the virus to spread. 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:06.200 You know, it's still something like sneezing. It seems like 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:08.640 that has to be way worse, right, Like, I think 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:10.400 a lot more of the what did you call them, 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:13.920 the aerosol droplets, It seems like more of those would 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:17.440 be pushed out with a sneeze than just your normal breathing, right, Yeah, 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:19.720 I mean you think so. But sneezing happens a lot 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:22.400 less often than breathing, so it isn't as big a 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.679 contributor as you guess. In fact, when participants in UMD 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:29.120 study provided sneeze samples, there wasn't much viral RNA and 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:33.360 those aerosol droplets, So really, sneezing isn't the big factor 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:35.320 as big a factor in spreading the flu virus as 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:38.360 coughing or even just breathing normally. All right, So I 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:40.160 think we need to pause just to figure out whether 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.560 there's an upside to this research or is this really 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:45.200 only good for making me even more paranoid about being 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:48.400 around people with the flu? Well, I mean, it's suggests 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:50.320 a new ways to help fight the spread of the flu, 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:54.120 such as improving ventilation in schools or offices or even 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:57.199 subway cars. But probably the biggest upside is that the 0:08:57.240 --> 0:09:00.400 fine things might actually make public health initiatives more accurate 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:03.640 at tracking the risk of flu epidemics and also controlling 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:06.400 the outbreaks. So having a better sense of how the 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:08.600 virus spreads through the air will go a long way 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:10.959 towards improving the computer models we used for that kind 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:12.920 of work. Yeah, you know, and I'm glad you mentioned 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:16.040 the effort to track these and predict the flu outbreaks, 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:18.200 because there's a new model for this that I do 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:21.120 want to talk about. So back in two thousand thirteen, 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:24.120 the CDC kicked off this official it was called the 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:28.440 Predict the Influence the Season Challenge on the exciting but 0:09:28.840 --> 0:09:31.240 you know, it was this way of encouraging researchers to 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:34.400 find ways of using social media to predict and track 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.719 the flu. And so you had researchers from all over 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:39.920 the country competing in this kind of thing, and even 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.840 companies like Google getting involved. But one of the most 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:46.720 interesting results of the challenge came from Northeastern University in Boston. 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:50.280 So last year, a team they're collected location data from 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:54.040 over fifty million tweets. And we've talked a little bit 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:57.040 before about the use of like mass data in order 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:00.200 to try to predict certain things, but they were just 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.800 grabbing content willy nilly. Instead, they restricted their research to 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:08.040 messages that contain flu related words like coughing and vomiting, 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:10.880 and then all this data help them form this picture 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:14.120 of early flu activity all over the country. And they 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:16.640 did this like a full six weeks before the flu 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.720 season officially began, which is kind of amazing, right, six 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.840 weeks before the season. But what's the practical application for 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:25.360 like that kind of mapping, Well, it helps these health 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:29.120 organizations predict the amount of flu cases to expect that season, 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.400 you know, as well as how the virus might peak 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.880 and when it might peak, and whether it may be 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:37.480 more or less contagious than previous years. And it heads 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:38.960 up of this kind of stuff can help when the 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:42.480 illness hits in full force. In any given years, somewhere 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:45.920 between five and of the US population comes down with 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.640 the flu, So knowing where we might fall on that 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:52.120 scale definitely helps with preparations and helps to make sure 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:54.560 there are enough flu vaccines available to meet the demand 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:57.040 for the year, which makes sense, right, Like a little 0:10:57.080 --> 0:10:59.040 four warning counts for a lot when you're dealing with 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.160 a matter of life and death and the flu is 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:04.120 most certainly that. In fact, according to the World Health 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:07.200 the Organization and the CDC, the flu is responsible for 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:10.480 somewhere between three hundred thousand and seven hundred thousand deaths 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.800 worldwide each year, and between two thousand and two thousand 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.560 sixteen flu related deaths in the U. S branch from 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:20.320 about ten thousand to sixty annually. Wow. I mean, that's 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:22.599 that's a lot of people, and it's pretty frightening to 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:25.320 think about that. But you know, I've I've always wondered, like, 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:29.480 what is a flu related death? I mean, obviously understand 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.360 the basic concept, but but how exactly does the flu 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:35.120 kill somebody? Yeah, I was curious about that too, so 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.360 I looked into it, and there are actually a few 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:39.960 ways the flu can take us out. So first, it 0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:42.440 helps to know that once the flu virus enters your body, 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:46.040 it immediately sets to work. It hijacks human cells in 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.240 the nose and throat and converts them into copies of itself. 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.839 And this sudden influx of viral cells it triggers the 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:56.200 immune system, which immediately responds by sending an army of 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:59.880 white blood cells and antibodies to fight back the horde. Now, 0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:02.480 the good guy cells are victorious. In most cases, they 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:05.480 destroyed the virus laden tissue and you start to feel 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.080 better as a result within a few days or weeks. 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:10.760 But every now and then the immune system gets a 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:14.600 little over eager with its defense efforts, and in these cases, 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.320 so much tissue is destroyed that the lungs can no 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.679 longer provide the blood with the amount of oxygen it needs, 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:24.520 and this results in this deficiency of oxygen called hypoxia, 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.440 which can be terminal. Another way the flu can be 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:31.080 deadly is through those secondary bacterial infections that I mentioned earlier. 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.160 The immune system can exhaust itself fighting the flu, which 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:37.160 leaves it open to attack by bacterial infections, which can 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:40.040 then cause organ damage or even death. Wow, and and 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.800 so which of these is actually more of a problem. 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.280 Are there more flu related deaths due to the virus 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.160 itself and what it does to the immune system, or 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:52.040 you know, maybe to the bacterial infections that overwhelmness system. Yeah, 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.120 it really varies. So the viral strains that cause the 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.880 flu are always changing from season to season, and it's 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.040 typically the most virulent ones that collapse the immune system 0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:03.920 on their own. The bacterial related flu debts are more 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:06.439 the result of a lack of cleanliness and the facilities 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:09.559 where flu patients are housed. For example, some researchers think 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:13.800 that during the infamous global flu pandemic of when cities 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.320 were at their least hygienic, the majority of debts were 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:20.000 due to bacterial infections. Well, I know, there definitely is 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:22.960 a lot more to say about the pandemic, and not 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:24.960 all of that is going to be pretty So before 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:40.400 we get into that, let's take a quick break. You're 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.240 listening to part time Genius and we're talking about the 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:45.520 ins and outs of influence, all right, so we definitely 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:49.000 should talk a little bit about pandemics. But before we 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:51.200 do that, just a quick note on the terms. There 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.600 so two words that crop up a lot when we 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:58.560 discuss contagious diseases and illnesses, in these words epidemic and pandemic. 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.760 So just to set the record straight, a flu epidemic 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:04.720 is a sudden outbreak of the virus that spreads rapidly 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.319 and of course affects a lot of people at once. 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:10.760 In other words, flu epidemics happen every year and aren't 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.880 much of a cause for alarm on their own. Many 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.480 of the cases that make up an epidemic are pretty mild, 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.920 though of course there are always some that proved to 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:22.800 be lethal, something that's unfortunately especially true for both very 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:26.160 young and the elderly, who sadly account for the highest 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:30.080 hospitalization rates during most flu seasons. On the other hand, 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:33.360 a pandemic has caused for very much alarm, and there 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:36.440 are two characteristics of pandemics that kind of explain why 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:39.480 this is. And the first is that the virus involved 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.880 in the pandemic is always a new strain that's one 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.160 that few people or or maybe even none at all 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:48.440 have any kind of resistance too. And then the second 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:50.800 is that a pandemic involves a virus that spread to 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:53.760 more than one continent, and that basically means that this 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:56.880 strain is gaining strength and claiming victims with no clear 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.840 sign of slowing down. Yeah, flu pandemics have been re 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.080 can havo pretty much since the illness came on the 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.720 scene in the late fifteen hundreds. That's when the first 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.720 major flu pandemic on records swept through Asia and Europe 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.880 and wiped out roughly ten percent of Rome's population in 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.560 just one week's time. It's crazy, right, And since then 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.280 there have been more than a dozen confirmed flu pandemics, 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.120 but the worst in modern history is undoubtedly the one 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.720 from Well and this is the one that most people 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:25.680 refer to as the Spanish Flu, right yeah, which really 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.200 has been one of the most unfair misnomers in history, 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.240 because the Spanish Flu definitely didn't come from Spain or 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:34.040 the Spaniards. You know, I remember hearing that that was 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.680 the case, but I can't remember why this nickname came 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:38.640 about in the first place. That do you know why 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:41.840 this is? Well? World War One was nearing its end 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.560 by the time the pandemic rolled around, and most countries 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:47.000 involved were wary of letting their enemies know how badly 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.360 they had been hit by the flu. So in places 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:54.080 like Germany, France, Austria, UK US, even like all the 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.920 major players, news outlets weren't allowed to report on the 0:15:56.920 --> 0:16:00.040 true extent of the crisis. But Spain, if you'll remember it, 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.720 was neutral, like, they had no reason to hide the 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:06.440 flues impact. So when Spanish papers became the first report 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:08.800 on the millions of flu related deaths in the country, 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:11.560 many people got to fase impression that the country was 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.640 disproportionately affected by the illness and that it must have 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:18.080 also originated there. I would say, that's pretty much the 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:20.640 definition of a bum round. But all right, so if 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.280 Spain definitely wasn't the originator, who was. I mean, it's 0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:27.200 still a matter of debate. Actually, some researchers think it 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:31.000 originated in East Asia, some think it's in Europe, but 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.240 others claim it started in Kansas, where U. S. Soldiers 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:37.240 occupied this unsanitary military base before shipping off for the 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:41.640 fighting Europe. But no matter where the pandemic virus began geographically, 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.800 we now know that it adapted from an avian virus strain, 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:48.040 so the bird flu exactly we should be pointing our 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.560 fingers at birds. But you mentioned earlier that pandemics are 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:54.440 a result of new, unknown flu strains. Well, in the 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.280 case of the nineteen eighteen pandemic, the new strain came 0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:59.960 from a bird based illness that mutated until the next 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:03.280 scesary features to be transmitted to humans. And this was 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:06.520 something that wasn't confirmed until many years later, But even 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:08.800 at the time, there was talk that birds might be 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:11.680 to blame for the outbreak. In fact, these suspicions even 0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:15.000 inspired a creepy schoolyard rhyme kind of like the Pocket 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:17.400 Full of Poses one that's supposedly based on the plague. 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:21.280 All right, and I'm assuming you know how Yeah. Well, 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.160 I'm not gonna sing it because I have a terrible 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.879 singing voice, but supposedly it has the same tune as 0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:29.360 Ring around the Rosy. But the lyrics go, I had 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.760 a little bird and its name was Enza. I opened 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:38.280 the window and Influenza. You just made that? Is that real? Yeah? 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:40.440 I mean it's a little punnier than the plague grind, 0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:42.639 but I guess I can imagine jumping rope to it. 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:44.760 But you know, kids rhymes aside, It sounds like this 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:47.360 was a super dangerous time to be alive. I mean, 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:50.439 it's called the Great Pandemic for a reason. Absolutely the 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:53.200 virus flared up all around the world, and every time 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:56.199 it did more people died. In fact, it's estimated that 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:59.080 as many as fifty million to a hundred million people 0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:02.200 died worldwide in the event, which was roughly five percent 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.680 of the world's population. It's just insane to think about. 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:07.840 I mean, that's more than the number of people who 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.840 died from actual combat during World War One. Wow. And 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:13.760 I'm guessing that just about everybody who contracted the flu 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.280 that year that actually died from it or is this 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:18.360 not right? That's what I thought too, But but that's 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:20.760 not the case. So, according to research from the CDC, 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.439 about half a billion people who were infected with the 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:27.080 flu in nineteen eighteen, but an overwhelming majority of them 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:29.880 managed to survive it. In fact, the national death rates 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:33.760 for those infected really rose above But that said, the 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:36.760 typical flu outbreak kills less than one percent of those affected, 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:40.679 So a percent rate is off the charts. Yeah, no kidding. 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:42.480 And you know one thing I don't understand. That was 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:45.600 why the nineteen eighteen pandemic was so much more severe 0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:47.920 than the ones before it or since then. I mean, 0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:51.800 what made that one so destructive? Well, we already mentioned 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.280 the emergence of a brand new avian virus that most 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:56.439 of the world just wasn't equipped to fight off. But 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.920 another key factor was the unhygienic conditions of the time, 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.679 especially among urban residents, and the millions of troops engaged 0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:06.359 in trench warfare around the globe. And as writer as 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:09.879 Katherine Paul's and Anthony Fauci put in their recent article 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:15.000 for Scientific American quote, crowding and poor sanitation allowed for 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:19.120 rampant disease transmission, especially in areas where access to healthcare 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:22.800 was limited. Anti virals to treat influenza were not available 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:26.399 in nineteen eighteen, and infections often were complicated by fatal 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:30.440 bacterial pneumonias, for which there were no effective antibodies. Further, 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:34.960 protective vaccines, the cornerstone of modern influenza prevention, were still 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:37.400 decades in the future. Yeah, I read up on how 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.080 the flu vaccine eventually came about, and it really wasn't 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.800 rolled out to the public until the mid nineteen forties, 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:45.159 And it may seem like a late edition, but you 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:47.360 do have to consider that it wasn't until the nineteen 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:50.199 thirties that scientists even figure this out. You know, that 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.800 this was a virus causing this widespread illness, and that 0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:57.840 breakthrough came compliments of an American researcher named Dr Francis Jr. 0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:00.359 And you know what he used. He actually used erets 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:03.879 to prove that the flu was purely a viral illness. Wait, 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:08.440 why ferrets? Well, strangely enough, ferrets are the model organism 0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:12.159 for influenza research. Apparently, most animals can produce two kinds 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:15.080 of ceolic acid, and that's the sugar that's crucial for 0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:19.200 certain metabolic processes. But ferrets, much like humans, they can 0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:22.919 actually only make one kind. So what exactly does that 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:25.480