Speaker 1: Guess what, mango, what's that? Well, do you remember a
Speaker 1: few weeks ago when we talked to Daniel Pink about
Speaker 1: the science of perfect timing? What if I said no, like,
Speaker 1: would you be concerned about that? That? Maybe a little
Speaker 1: bit concerned because this was just a few weeks ago,
Speaker 1: but especially because it was a super interesting episode and
Speaker 1: conversation and just all of that talk about how timing
Speaker 1: matters in so many ways that we don't stop and
Speaker 1: think about. You know, one of the things we talked
Speaker 1: about was how much timing matters when it comes to
Speaker 1: medical treatments, like when not to have a surgery or
Speaker 1: when to go to the doctor. But you know, one
Speaker 1: of the things we didn't talk about were the strange
Speaker 1: findings around the time of day and getting vaccinations and
Speaker 1: other specific medical treatments wait at the time of day
Speaker 1: matters from vaccinations. Yeah, So there was this really interesting
Speaker 1: story about this in Scientific American and everything from cancer
Speaker 1: treatments to flu shots can trigger slightly different responses in
Speaker 1: our bodies depending on the time of day that we
Speaker 1: get them. So with flu shots, a few studies have
Speaker 1: actually found that those who got flu shots before eleven
Speaker 1: a m produced more antibodies than those who got them
Speaker 1: later in the afternoon, which is so strange. It really is,
Speaker 1: and it's yet another reminder of just how much we
Speaker 1: have to learn about our body clocks and the way
Speaker 1: they work. But back to the flu. I mean, we
Speaker 1: wanted to focus today's episode on answering some of the
Speaker 1: many questions people have, like why are some flu seasons
Speaker 1: worse than others, how do scientists know when some seasons
Speaker 1: will be particularly bad, and what goes into deciding what
Speaker 1: this year's vaccine is going to look like. Those are
Speaker 1: just a few of the questions we're answering today. So
Speaker 1: let's dive in Y today their podcast listeners, Welcome to
Speaker 1: Part Time Genius. I'm Will Pearson, and as always I'm
Speaker 1: joined by my good friend man guest ticket and on
Speaker 1: the other side of the soundproof glass offering complimentary flu shots.
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, that's what the sign says to anybody
Speaker 1: brave enough to take him on it. That's our friend
Speaker 1: and producer Tristan McNeil. I mean, it is a nice gesture,
Speaker 1: don't you think, Mango. Yeah, although probably an illegal one too,
Speaker 1: I'm guessing. Well, either way, he's getting a lot of
Speaker 1: side eye glances from people around the office today. But
Speaker 1: I can't say I blame the guy for wanting to
Speaker 1: take some precautions. I mean, you know, personally vaccinating all
Speaker 1: your coworkers might be an extreme reaction. But yeah, there's
Speaker 1: no denying that this year's flu season is a pretty
Speaker 1: rough one. For example, I was looking at some of
Speaker 1: the stats and the latest flu update from January nineteenth,
Speaker 1: the CDC reports that thirty two states plus New York
Speaker 1: City in Puerto Rico are currently experiencing what's considered high
Speaker 1: flu activity, and things aren't much better in other states.
Speaker 1: In fact, Hawaii is actually the only U. S state
Speaker 1: that's not experiencing widespread flu activity. Yeah, but I mean,
Speaker 1: it's all sad to deal with false alarms around missile strikes,
Speaker 1: so it's it's a bit of a trade off. I guess. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a fair point. But you know, as you might
Speaker 1: have guessed, today's show is all about influenza or is
Speaker 1: it's better known just the flu, And we're gonna talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about what the illness is and how
Speaker 1: it spreads, as well as some of the clever ways
Speaker 1: analysts have found to track flu activity. But we also
Speaker 1: want to debunk some of the popular misconceptions around the flu.
Speaker 1: And you know, since I just brought up the severity
Speaker 1: of this year's flu season, I do want to make
Speaker 1: sure we put some of that hype in perspective. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, you don't want to give the flu a
Speaker 1: bad name or anything, right, I mean, you know, people talk,
Speaker 1: but seriously, you know, while there have been close to
Speaker 1: nine thousand influence of related hospitalization since October of last year,
Speaker 1: the overall hospitalization rate is actually down from the two
Speaker 1: thousand fourteen two thousand fifteen season, which was considered a
Speaker 1: very high severity season. So all, this year's flu season
Speaker 1: is a bad one. It is an unprecedented and we've
Speaker 1: actually dealt with worse in recent years. Yeah. It's also
Speaker 1: worth keeping in mind that the CDC announced on January
Speaker 1: twelve that flu activity has likely peaked for the season,
Speaker 1: which is a good thing. Although even if the worst
Speaker 1: is over, officials say there's still about three months to
Speaker 1: go until the illness is gone for the season. Oh wow,
Speaker 1: so it is still a good idea to get that
Speaker 1: flu shot. Just I don't know, maybe not from TRISCA. Right. Well,
Speaker 1: while we're setting to the record straight about the flu.
Speaker 1: We should probably address one of the biggest myths about it,
Speaker 1: which is that you can use antibiotics to treat it.
Speaker 1: And this is something a lot of people swear by,
Speaker 1: but the truth is that antibiotics only respond to illness
Speaker 1: is caused by bacteria, and since the flu is born
Speaker 1: from virus, not bacteria, antibiotics actually don't have any effect
Speaker 1: on it. Yeah, you know, and this is something I
Speaker 1: think many of our listeners probably already know. But it
Speaker 1: is surprising when you read survey after survey of people
Speaker 1: misunderstanding this. So so why do you think it trips
Speaker 1: up so many people. Well, part of it is that
Speaker 1: a viral infection of the nose thrown lungs can sometimes
Speaker 1: lead to bacterial illnesses like bronchitis. Like antibiotics do have
Speaker 1: an effect on this kind of secondary bacterial infection, so
Speaker 1: sometimes as people credit them for helping with both kinds
Speaker 1: of illness. And that kind of confusion was especially common
Speaker 1: a few decades ago when it was really popular with
Speaker 1: doctors to preemptively prescribe antibiotics to flu patients. This was
Speaker 1: kind of a way to ward off the bacterial complications.
Speaker 1: And you know, once the patients began to feel better,
Speaker 1: they had mistakenly attribute the recovery to these trusty antibiotics. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I think the other confusion is around the stomach
Speaker 1: flu though, too. I mean, I think antibotics typically do
Speaker 1: help with that, right, Yeah they do. I mean that's
Speaker 1: only because the stomach flu isn't a real thing, or
Speaker 1: at least it's not actually influenza. So remember, the flu
Speaker 1: is of respiratory illness caused by viruses. It has nothing
Speaker 1: to do with the gastro intestinal system. But people associate
Speaker 1: the general feeling of awfulness they get from stomach sickness
Speaker 1: with that of having, you know, a nasty case of
Speaker 1: the flu. So any kind of stomach bug or food
Speaker 1: born illness just gets labeled the flu. Well, and you know,
Speaker 1: since antibotics would actually help with the kind of bacteria
Speaker 1: you deal with in food poisoning, that's I don't know,
Speaker 1: maybe another reason for this whole myth about that helping
Speaker 1: them with the flu. Yeah, that's right. I mean people
Speaker 1: just hone in on the time antibiotics help them kick
Speaker 1: the stomach flu. Yeah. Well, you know, another misconception about
Speaker 1: the flu is how it's spread. You know, most people
Speaker 1: know the illness can be spread by others through these
Speaker 1: droplets of fluid that we expel when we cough or
Speaker 1: sneeze or even just talk. And these droplets can be
Speaker 1: launched as far as six feet, which makes it easy
Speaker 1: for them to land in people's mouths or noses. It's
Speaker 1: just nasty to think about it, but you know they're
Speaker 1: inhaling them into their lungs as well, so it's it's
Speaker 1: pretty easy to spread that. It's so gross to think about. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you know, the other way to spread the flu
Speaker 1: is through contact with contaminated objects, and this is where
Speaker 1: some folks get mixed up. Again, many of our listeners
Speaker 1: probably already know this, but it is something that comes
Speaker 1: up time and again people not understanding it is. And
Speaker 1: that's that the flu is not transferred through the skin.
Speaker 1: So you're not going to get sick by just touching
Speaker 1: a contaminated door knob or shaking hands with somebody who
Speaker 1: has the flu. So I mean we should talk about
Speaker 1: why it's to keep washing your hands during the flu
Speaker 1: season though, well, because with the fluid goes back to
Speaker 1: the nose and the mouth, so if you touch something
Speaker 1: coated with the virus and then you touch your nose
Speaker 1: or mouth, that's when the infection occurs. And of course
Speaker 1: this is why you definitely don't want to share dishes
Speaker 1: or utensils with somebody who has the flu either. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't want to share those things with anyone period.
Speaker 1: But that's definitely good advice. So one crazy statistic I
Speaker 1: found while researching is that approximately one third of families
Speaker 1: with schoolish children are actually infected with the flu each year.
Speaker 1: A third. I mean, that's insane, And I think one
Speaker 1: reason that's the case is that spreading the flu might
Speaker 1: be even easier than we think. And how's that. Well,
Speaker 1: according to a new study from the University of Maryland,
Speaker 1: breathing alone is enough to spread the flu virus, never
Speaker 1: mind sneezing or coughing. So what happened was researchers gathered
Speaker 1: bread samples from a hundred forty two people who were
Speaker 1: confirmed to have the flu, and after testing those samples,
Speaker 1: it was found that nearly half of the fine aerosol
Speaker 1: droplets collected during normal breathing contained viral r n A. Alright,
Speaker 1: so so just exhaling can cause the virus to spread.
Speaker 1: You know, it's still something like sneezing. It seems like
Speaker 1: that has to be way worse, right, Like, I think
Speaker 1: a lot more of the what did you call them,
Speaker 1: the aerosol droplets, It seems like more of those would
Speaker 1: be pushed out with a sneeze than just your normal breathing, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean you think so. But sneezing happens a lot
Speaker 1: less often than breathing, so it isn't as big a
Speaker 1: contributor as you guess. In fact, when participants in UMD
Speaker 1: study provided sneeze samples, there wasn't much viral RNA and
Speaker 1: those aerosol droplets, So really, sneezing isn't the big factor
Speaker 1: as big a factor in spreading the flu virus as
Speaker 1: coughing or even just breathing normally. All right, So I
Speaker 1: think we need to pause just to figure out whether
Speaker 1: there's an upside to this research or is this really
Speaker 1: only good for making me even more paranoid about being
Speaker 1: around people with the flu? Well, I mean, it's suggests
Speaker 1: a new ways to help fight the spread of the flu,
Speaker 1: such as improving ventilation in schools or offices or even
Speaker 1: subway cars. But probably the biggest upside is that the
Speaker 1: fine things might actually make public health initiatives more accurate
Speaker 1: at tracking the risk of flu epidemics and also controlling
Speaker 1: the outbreaks. So having a better sense of how the
Speaker 1: virus spreads through the air will go a long way
Speaker 1: towards improving the computer models we used for that kind
Speaker 1: of work. Yeah, you know, and I'm glad you mentioned
Speaker 1: the effort to track these and predict the flu outbreaks,
Speaker 1: because there's a new model for this that I do
Speaker 1: want to talk about. So back in two thousand thirteen,
Speaker 1: the CDC kicked off this official it was called the
Speaker 1: Predict the Influence the Season Challenge on the exciting but
Speaker 1: you know, it was this way of encouraging researchers to
Speaker 1: find ways of using social media to predict and track
Speaker 1: the flu. And so you had researchers from all over
Speaker 1: the country competing in this kind of thing, and even
Speaker 1: companies like Google getting involved. But one of the most
Speaker 1: interesting results of the challenge came from Northeastern University in Boston.
Speaker 1: So last year, a team they're collected location data from
Speaker 1: over fifty million tweets. And we've talked a little bit
Speaker 1: before about the use of like mass data in order
Speaker 1: to try to predict certain things, but they were just
Speaker 1: grabbing content willy nilly. Instead, they restricted their research to
Speaker 1: messages that contain flu related words like coughing and vomiting,
Speaker 1: and then all this data help them form this picture
Speaker 1: of early flu activity all over the country. And they
Speaker 1: did this like a full six weeks before the flu
Speaker 1: season officially began, which is kind of amazing, right, six
Speaker 1: weeks before the season. But what's the practical application for
Speaker 1: like that kind of mapping, Well, it helps these health
Speaker 1: organizations predict the amount of flu cases to expect that season,
Speaker 1: you know, as well as how the virus might peak
Speaker 1: and when it might peak, and whether it may be
Speaker 1: more or less contagious than previous years. And it heads
Speaker 1: up of this kind of stuff can help when the
Speaker 1: illness hits in full force. In any given years, somewhere
Speaker 1: between five and of the US population comes down with
Speaker 1: the flu, So knowing where we might fall on that
Speaker 1: scale definitely helps with preparations and helps to make sure
Speaker 1: there are enough flu vaccines available to meet the demand
Speaker 1: for the year, which makes sense, right, Like a little
Speaker 1: four warning counts for a lot when you're dealing with
Speaker 1: a matter of life and death and the flu is
Speaker 1: most certainly that. In fact, according to the World Health
Speaker 1: the Organization and the CDC, the flu is responsible for
Speaker 1: somewhere between three hundred thousand and seven hundred thousand deaths
Speaker 1: worldwide each year, and between two thousand and two thousand
Speaker 1: sixteen flu related deaths in the U. S branch from
Speaker 1: about ten thousand to sixty annually. Wow. I mean, that's
Speaker 1: that's a lot of people, and it's pretty frightening to
Speaker 1: think about that. But you know, I've I've always wondered, like,
Speaker 1: what is a flu related death? I mean, obviously understand
Speaker 1: the basic concept, but but how exactly does the flu
Speaker 1: kill somebody? Yeah, I was curious about that too, so
Speaker 1: I looked into it, and there are actually a few
Speaker 1: ways the flu can take us out. So first, it
Speaker 1: helps to know that once the flu virus enters your body,
Speaker 1: it immediately sets to work. It hijacks human cells in
Speaker 1: the nose and throat and converts them into copies of itself.
Speaker 1: And this sudden influx of viral cells it triggers the
Speaker 1: immune system, which immediately responds by sending an army of
Speaker 1: white blood cells and antibodies to fight back the horde. Now,
Speaker 1: the good guy cells are victorious. In most cases, they
Speaker 1: destroyed the virus laden tissue and you start to feel
Speaker 1: better as a result within a few days or weeks.
Speaker 1: But every now and then the immune system gets a
Speaker 1: little over eager with its defense efforts, and in these cases,
Speaker 1: so much tissue is destroyed that the lungs can no
Speaker 1: longer provide the blood with the amount of oxygen it needs,
Speaker 1: and this results in this deficiency of oxygen called hypoxia,
Speaker 1: which can be terminal. Another way the flu can be
Speaker 1: deadly is through those secondary bacterial infections that I mentioned earlier.
Speaker 1: The immune system can exhaust itself fighting the flu, which
Speaker 1: leaves it open to attack by bacterial infections, which can
Speaker 1: then cause organ damage or even death. Wow, and and
Speaker 1: so which of these is actually more of a problem.
Speaker 1: Are there more flu related deaths due to the virus
Speaker 1: itself and what it does to the immune system, or
Speaker 1: you know, maybe to the bacterial infections that overwhelmness system. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it really varies. So the viral strains that cause the
Speaker 1: flu are always changing from season to season, and it's
Speaker 1: typically the most virulent ones that collapse the immune system
Speaker 1: on their own. The bacterial related flu debts are more
Speaker 1: the result of a lack of cleanliness and the facilities
Speaker 1: where flu patients are housed. For example, some researchers think
Speaker 1: that during the infamous global flu pandemic of when cities
Speaker 1: were at their least hygienic, the majority of debts were
Speaker 1: due to bacterial infections. Well, I know, there definitely is
Speaker 1: a lot more to say about the pandemic, and not
Speaker 1: all of that is going to be pretty So before
Speaker 1: we get into that, let's take a quick break. You're
Speaker 1: listening to part time Genius and we're talking about the
Speaker 1: ins and outs of influence, all right, so we definitely
Speaker 1: should talk a little bit about pandemics. But before we
Speaker 1: do that, just a quick note on the terms. There
Speaker 1: so two words that crop up a lot when we
Speaker 1: discuss contagious diseases and illnesses, in these words epidemic and pandemic.
Speaker 1: So just to set the record straight, a flu epidemic
Speaker 1: is a sudden outbreak of the virus that spreads rapidly
Speaker 1: and of course affects a lot of people at once.
Speaker 1: In other words, flu epidemics happen every year and aren't
Speaker 1: much of a cause for alarm on their own. Many
Speaker 1: of the cases that make up an epidemic are pretty mild,
Speaker 1: though of course there are always some that proved to
Speaker 1: be lethal, something that's unfortunately especially true for both very
Speaker 1: young and the elderly, who sadly account for the highest
Speaker 1: hospitalization rates during most flu seasons. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: a pandemic has caused for very much alarm, and there
Speaker 1: are two characteristics of pandemics that kind of explain why
Speaker 1: this is. And the first is that the virus involved
Speaker 1: in the pandemic is always a new strain that's one
Speaker 1: that few people or or maybe even none at all
Speaker 1: have any kind of resistance too. And then the second
Speaker 1: is that a pandemic involves a virus that spread to
Speaker 1: more than one continent, and that basically means that this
Speaker 1: strain is gaining strength and claiming victims with no clear
Speaker 1: sign of slowing down. Yeah, flu pandemics have been re
Speaker 1: can havo pretty much since the illness came on the
Speaker 1: scene in the late fifteen hundreds. That's when the first
Speaker 1: major flu pandemic on records swept through Asia and Europe
Speaker 1: and wiped out roughly ten percent of Rome's population in
Speaker 1: just one week's time. It's crazy, right, And since then
Speaker 1: there have been more than a dozen confirmed flu pandemics,
Speaker 1: but the worst in modern history is undoubtedly the one
Speaker 1: from Well and this is the one that most people
Speaker 1: refer to as the Spanish Flu, right yeah, which really
Speaker 1: has been one of the most unfair misnomers in history,
Speaker 1: because the Spanish Flu definitely didn't come from Spain or
Speaker 1: the Spaniards. You know, I remember hearing that that was
Speaker 1: the case, but I can't remember why this nickname came
Speaker 1: about in the first place. That do you know why
Speaker 1: this is? Well? World War One was nearing its end
Speaker 1: by the time the pandemic rolled around, and most countries
Speaker 1: involved were wary of letting their enemies know how badly
Speaker 1: they had been hit by the flu. So in places
Speaker 1: like Germany, France, Austria, UK US, even like all the
Speaker 1: major players, news outlets weren't allowed to report on the
Speaker 1: true extent of the crisis. But Spain, if you'll remember it,
Speaker 1: was neutral, like, they had no reason to hide the
Speaker 1: flues impact. So when Spanish papers became the first report
Speaker 1: on the millions of flu related deaths in the country,
Speaker 1: many people got to fase impression that the country was
Speaker 1: disproportionately affected by the illness and that it must have
Speaker 1: also originated there. I would say, that's pretty much the
Speaker 1: definition of a bum round. But all right, so if
Speaker 1: Spain definitely wasn't the originator, who was. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: still a matter of debate. Actually, some researchers think it
Speaker 1: originated in East Asia, some think it's in Europe, but
Speaker 1: others claim it started in Kansas, where U. S. Soldiers
Speaker 1: occupied this unsanitary military base before shipping off for the
Speaker 1: fighting Europe. But no matter where the pandemic virus began geographically,
Speaker 1: we now know that it adapted from an avian virus strain,
Speaker 1: so the bird flu exactly we should be pointing our
Speaker 1: fingers at birds. But you mentioned earlier that pandemics are
Speaker 1: a result of new, unknown flu strains. Well, in the
Speaker 1: case of the nineteen eighteen pandemic, the new strain came
Speaker 1: from a bird based illness that mutated until the next
Speaker 1: scesary features to be transmitted to humans. And this was
Speaker 1: something that wasn't confirmed until many years later, But even
Speaker 1: at the time, there was talk that birds might be
Speaker 1: to blame for the outbreak. In fact, these suspicions even
Speaker 1: inspired a creepy schoolyard rhyme kind of like the Pocket
Speaker 1: Full of Poses one that's supposedly based on the plague.
Speaker 1: All right, and I'm assuming you know how Yeah. Well,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sing it because I have a terrible
Speaker 1: singing voice, but supposedly it has the same tune as
Speaker 1: Ring around the Rosy. But the lyrics go, I had
Speaker 1: a little bird and its name was Enza. I opened
Speaker 1: the window and Influenza. You just made that? Is that real? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I mean it's a little punnier than the plague grind,
Speaker 1: but I guess I can imagine jumping rope to it.
Speaker 1: But you know, kids rhymes aside, It sounds like this
Speaker 1: was a super dangerous time to be alive. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's called the Great Pandemic for a reason. Absolutely the
Speaker 1: virus flared up all around the world, and every time
Speaker 1: it did more people died. In fact, it's estimated that
Speaker 1: as many as fifty million to a hundred million people
Speaker 1: died worldwide in the event, which was roughly five percent
Speaker 1: of the world's population. It's just insane to think about.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's more than the number of people who
Speaker 1: died from actual combat during World War One. Wow. And
Speaker 1: I'm guessing that just about everybody who contracted the flu
Speaker 1: that year that actually died from it or is this
Speaker 1: not right? That's what I thought too, But but that's
Speaker 1: not the case. So, according to research from the CDC,
Speaker 1: about half a billion people who were infected with the
Speaker 1: flu in nineteen eighteen, but an overwhelming majority of them
Speaker 1: managed to survive it. In fact, the national death rates
Speaker 1: for those infected really rose above But that said, the
Speaker 1: typical flu outbreak kills less than one percent of those affected,
Speaker 1: So a percent rate is off the charts. Yeah, no kidding.
Speaker 1: And you know one thing I don't understand. That was
Speaker 1: why the nineteen eighteen pandemic was so much more severe
Speaker 1: than the ones before it or since then. I mean,
Speaker 1: what made that one so destructive? Well, we already mentioned
Speaker 1: the emergence of a brand new avian virus that most
Speaker 1: of the world just wasn't equipped to fight off. But
Speaker 1: another key factor was the unhygienic conditions of the time,
Speaker 1: especially among urban residents, and the millions of troops engaged
Speaker 1: in trench warfare around the globe. And as writer as
Speaker 1: Katherine Paul's and Anthony Fauci put in their recent article
Speaker 1: for Scientific American quote, crowding and poor sanitation allowed for
Speaker 1: rampant disease transmission, especially in areas where access to healthcare
Speaker 1: was limited. Anti virals to treat influenza were not available
Speaker 1: in nineteen eighteen, and infections often were complicated by fatal
Speaker 1: bacterial pneumonias, for which there were no effective antibodies. Further,
Speaker 1: protective vaccines, the cornerstone of modern influenza prevention, were still
Speaker 1: decades in the future. Yeah, I read up on how
Speaker 1: the flu vaccine eventually came about, and it really wasn't
Speaker 1: rolled out to the public until the mid nineteen forties,
Speaker 1: And it may seem like a late edition, but you
Speaker 1: do have to consider that it wasn't until the nineteen
Speaker 1: thirties that scientists even figure this out. You know, that
Speaker 1: this was a virus causing this widespread illness, and that
Speaker 1: breakthrough came compliments of an American researcher named Dr Francis Jr.
Speaker 1: And you know what he used. He actually used erets
Speaker 1: to prove that the flu was purely a viral illness. Wait,
Speaker 1: why ferrets? Well, strangely enough, ferrets are the model organism
Speaker 1: for influenza research. Apparently, most animals can produce two kinds
Speaker 1: of ceolic acid, and that's the sugar that's crucial for
Speaker 1: certain metabolic processes. But ferrets, much like humans, they can
Speaker 1: actually only make one kind. So what exactly does that
Speaker 1: have to do with the flu Well, flu strains bind
Speaker 1: to the ceolic acid and that causes the infection, But
Speaker 1: different strains have different preferences for which kind they actually
Speaker 1: adhere to. And since ferrets can only make the same
Speaker 1: type of sugar as humans, they're naturally susceptible to the
Speaker 1: humanized strains of influenza. I mean, that's a raw deal
Speaker 1: for farrets, it might be, but it kind of gives
Speaker 1: the lab rates a break for the seriously, I mean,
Speaker 1: this year marks the anniversary of what's widely considered to
Speaker 1: be the most disastrous outbreak of an infectious illness in
Speaker 1: known history, And of course, the question that brings to
Speaker 1: mind for me is how much progress have we made since?
Speaker 1: Or to put it another way, how likely is it
Speaker 1: that we'll have to deal with a nightmare like that
Speaker 1: sometime again? Well, I know the flu vaccine has lessened
Speaker 1: the sting of influenza and obviously saved countless lives in
Speaker 1: the process, But I also know that vaccines don't always work.
Speaker 1: Particularly with new pandemic strains, and it's possible that we're
Speaker 1: still pretty vulnerable. Well that's what I was afraid of.
Speaker 1: And we should talk a little bit more about how
Speaker 1: vaccines work and how the fight against the flu is
Speaker 1: going today. But before we do that, let's take a
Speaker 1: quick break. Okay, Well, so let's do our part to
Speaker 1: help at another global health crisis. Tell me everything you
Speaker 1: know about the flu vaccine and flatter do you think
Speaker 1: might take might help prevent a help crisis. But you
Speaker 1: might be overstating how much I know by just a bit.
Speaker 1: But I did do some research and and one of
Speaker 1: the things that struck me was just how much work
Speaker 1: goes into developing these flu vaccines. And it is vaccines plural,
Speaker 1: because every year we have to develop a new one.
Speaker 1: So why is that? Because flu viruses are constantly changing
Speaker 1: in these subtle ways. So they evolved through continuous genetic
Speaker 1: mutations or sometimes by swapping jeans with other flu strains,
Speaker 1: so by the time the next flu season rolls around,
Speaker 1: actually dealing with a slightly different kind of threat than
Speaker 1: the one you faced in the year prior. Now, our
Speaker 1: current solution to this problem is to develop new vaccines
Speaker 1: each year, and this allows us to better target the
Speaker 1: specific viruses that are predicted to be active in the
Speaker 1: upcoming season. But unfortunately, even with these annual updates to
Speaker 1: flu vaccines, they're usually only about forty two sixty percent
Speaker 1: effective at best, and in some years, vaccine effectiveness is
Speaker 1: even lower than that. And I think that's what I've
Speaker 1: been reading about is the case this year? But why
Speaker 1: is it lower than I thought? Vaccination was our best
Speaker 1: chance for ducting the flu? Well, it definitely is. But
Speaker 1: you know, sometimes new viral it's emerge in between the
Speaker 1: development and the deployment of a new vaccine. You know,
Speaker 1: so scientists could be prepping this year's new vaccine based
Speaker 1: on all the data they have from the current crop
Speaker 1: of viruses, and then you know, bam, suddenly a new
Speaker 1: strain comes out of nowhere and kind of blindsides them.
Speaker 1: I know, this idea that your vaccine can't protect against
Speaker 1: this new virus that comes out. It's kind of tricky. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it is. And and in a case like that, it's
Speaker 1: still better to roll out the new vaccine than none
Speaker 1: at all. But you know, the vaccine's effectiveness will be
Speaker 1: much lower because it won't fully match the viruses it's
Speaker 1: up against, which always sounds like we need a new system. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and there are a lot of these national health organizations
Speaker 1: that would agree with you on this, and and there
Speaker 1: are a lot of conversations going on around this. So
Speaker 1: just last year a few of them met with leading
Speaker 1: flu experts to discuss better ideas for you know, improved
Speaker 1: flu vaccines. Of course, the dream is to do away
Speaker 1: with all the guesswork that makes us need new vaccines
Speaker 1: and just have this one universal flu shot instead. So,
Speaker 1: for example, one idea is the design of vaccine that
Speaker 1: targets the parts of the virus that are common among
Speaker 1: all flu strains, in other parts that don't easily change
Speaker 1: through mutation, which sounds promising. And this kind of just
Speaker 1: popped into my head, but it might sound a little random.
Speaker 1: What exactly is in a flu vaccine? Like, is it
Speaker 1: like with allergy shots where they inject you with whatever
Speaker 1: you're allergic to? Yeah, that's pretty much it. I mean,
Speaker 1: flu vaccines are made of dead viruses, and when they're
Speaker 1: injected in the body, they trigger this defensive response from
Speaker 1: your immune system, and that kind of serves as a
Speaker 1: training for when the body is faced with the live viruses.
Speaker 1: So then wait, can't we make a universal vaccine by
Speaker 1: just sticking corpses of all the known viral strains into
Speaker 1: one injection, and that way the body would be primed
Speaker 1: to take on all the new viruses. Well, it's a
Speaker 1: nice theory, and I appreciate your trying to solve all
Speaker 1: of this issue with just one big vaccine, But the
Speaker 1: reality is that the human immune system doesn't really have
Speaker 1: the capacity to effectively fight that many viruses at one time,
Speaker 1: and so the vaccine would just wind up making you sick.
Speaker 1: But you know, I was reading about some new research
Speaker 1: from a joint team of US and Chinese scientists who
Speaker 1: think they may have found a workaround, and their solution
Speaker 1: is to boost the immune systems ability to deal with
Speaker 1: a variety of viruses by making a vaccine that elicits
Speaker 1: a strong response from the body's T cells. And those
Speaker 1: are the white blood cells that fight diseases. But don't
Speaker 1: current vaccines stimulate those already? Well that's the thing, I mean,
Speaker 1: the current vaccines don't elicit a strong T cell response
Speaker 1: because they're made from dead viruses. Instead, they only trigger
Speaker 1: the development of anybodies, which are helpful in their own, right,
Speaker 1: I mean they bind to intruding flu cells and help
Speaker 1: prevent infection, but not as much as when they're working
Speaker 1: with T cells. Alright, So well, I think you're biases
Speaker 1: showing what's so great about T cells. Well, in this case,
Speaker 1: the advantage of T cells is that they would be
Speaker 1: on alert for different features of the flu virus. You know,
Speaker 1: anybody's would be mostly keeping watch for the shape of
Speaker 1: the specific strain. So by using a live virus in
Speaker 1: the vaccine, you've got patients that would have both anybodies
Speaker 1: and T cells working on their side from the start,
Speaker 1: you know, rather than way for T cells to show
Speaker 1: up only after you already have the flu. So Kathleen
Speaker 1: Sullivan are director at the Children's Hospital Philadelphia. She describes
Speaker 1: the benefit this way. She says, it has the magic
Speaker 1: of both great and a body response and inducing a
Speaker 1: strong T cell response that will be a safety net.
Speaker 1: So if a virus breaks through the first line of defense,
Speaker 1: you'll have T cells to make sure you don't get
Speaker 1: very sick. Which is pretty cool, But still injecting yourself
Speaker 1: with a live flu virus seems kind of dicey. I mean,
Speaker 1: does this work with just any vital strain that happens
Speaker 1: to be lying around, well not exactly. I mean, see,
Speaker 1: the scientists basically took a part of flu virus in
Speaker 1: their lab, figured out what made it tick, and they
Speaker 1: kind of frankenstein a mutant flu strain that was perfectly
Speaker 1: suited for this new kind of vaccination. And what exactly
Speaker 1: makes it so suitable to be injected live into my
Speaker 1: body because I have to tell you I've avoided Tristan's
Speaker 1: injections here and I'm pretty picky about this kind of thing.
Speaker 1: Well that what they did was they created a strain
Speaker 1: that was strong enough to replicate efficiently, but actually weak
Speaker 1: enough so that our immune systems can easily control them.
Speaker 1: So once the mutant virus is injected into the vaccine,
Speaker 1: it triggers both in anybody response and a T cell response,
Speaker 1: you know, all while never posing that much of an
Speaker 1: actual threat to the body. And not only that, but
Speaker 1: because T cell responses tend to provide longer term immunity,
Speaker 1: a vaccine like this could actually do away with the
Speaker 1: need for annual flu vaccinations. Well, I'm sure there's still
Speaker 1: a ways to go before a universal vaccine like that
Speaker 1: can go public, but I'll admit the prospect of not
Speaker 1: having to get a flu shot anymore is pretty appealing.
Speaker 1: And in the meantime, though, annual vaccinations are still the
Speaker 1: best chance to stay healthy, and not just for ourselves
Speaker 1: but for all of society. I was bringing this article
Speaker 1: in Quanta magazine that pointed out how people who talk
Speaker 1: themselves out of getting flu shots because you know, they
Speaker 1: never get the flu, are sort of missing the point.
Speaker 1: And how's that. Well? The idea is that vaccination campaigns,
Speaker 1: whether for the flu or anything else, aren't merely a
Speaker 1: way of keeping yourself from getting sick. They're also a
Speaker 1: way to boost our collective resistance. There's an idea that
Speaker 1: health experts throw around called herd immunity, which is basically
Speaker 1: the level of immunity that a population needs in order
Speaker 1: to prevent an outbreak of a disease. So when her
Speaker 1: immunity dips below a certain level, which varies from disease disease,
Speaker 1: that's when our epidemics occur. Yeah, that's definitely true, but
Speaker 1: I mean it's kind of painting this vaccinations as the
Speaker 1: be all, end all to the flu protection. So we
Speaker 1: definitely need to think about the other preventative measures out there,
Speaker 1: like avoiding public spaces during flu season, or washing our
Speaker 1: hands more often, and you know all the analysis and
Speaker 1: predictive tracking that goes into planning for a flu season.
Speaker 1: So I mean all of this has to count for something, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it does, And every little bit helps when you're up
Speaker 1: against like an ageless, invisible enemy who's constantly changing his tactics.
Speaker 1: But no matter how much you hate getting shots or
Speaker 1: how much you love washing your hands, it doesn't change
Speaker 1: the fact that vaccinations are any society's best option for
Speaker 1: keeping epidemics at bay. So, as Tara Smith put it
Speaker 1: in her article for Quanta, knowing the factors that contribute
Speaker 1: to these outbreaks can AIDA's and stopping epidemics in their
Speaker 1: early stages, but to prevent them from happening in the
Speaker 1: first place, a population with a high level of immunity
Speaker 1: is mathematically our best bet for keeping disease at bay.
Speaker 1: All right, I think you sold me, so Tristan, get
Speaker 1: over here, buddy. I think I finally worked up the
Speaker 1: nerve for the shut Okay, but before I have to
Speaker 1: take you to the e R, why don't we do
Speaker 1: our fact off? All right? That's probably a better idea anyway,
Speaker 1: So we talked a little earlier about the terrible Flu.
Speaker 1: Did you know that if Walt Disney himself hadn't gotten
Speaker 1: the flu during the pandemic, we might have missed out
Speaker 1: on the birth of Mickey Mouse entirely. So, towards the
Speaker 1: end of World War One, Disney was signed up to
Speaker 1: work for the Red Cross Ambulance Corps. He was only
Speaker 1: sixteen at the time, and that might seem a little young,
Speaker 1: but it's because Disney lied about his age. But before
Speaker 1: heading out he actually got the flu, and by the
Speaker 1: time he was well and able to go, the war
Speaker 1: was over alright. Well, one day we may be getting
Speaker 1: our flu shots with a bit of frog slime in them,
Speaker 1: or at least scientists are trying to figure out why.
Speaker 1: It appears that the slime from an Indian fungoid frog
Speaker 1: appears to have multiple peptides that are capable of killing
Speaker 1: the H one flu virus. So they tested the most
Speaker 1: effective of these peptides and this concoction that they gave
Speaker 1: to mice, and sure enough, it actually kept them from
Speaker 1: getting the flu and it seemed to produce no side effects.
Speaker 1: So the next step, of course, is figuring out whether
Speaker 1: this can be tested in people. Another interesting possible treatment estrogen.
Speaker 1: So we've actually known for some time that estrogen seems
Speaker 1: to have some antiviral effect on ebola and hepatitis and HIV,
Speaker 1: so there have recently been more studies on its effects
Speaker 1: on the flu, and through a few studies they found
Speaker 1: that estrogen did in fact significantly slow the replication of
Speaker 1: the flu virus. It'll be interesting to see where this
Speaker 1: goes in terms of developing treatment. But I just thought
Speaker 1: I was fascinating. Yeah, that is pretty interesting. Well, in
Speaker 1: terms of ways to prevent the spread of the flu
Speaker 1: beyond vaccines. The Wall Street Journal reported on a study
Speaker 1: from the National Bureau of Economic Research, and it showed
Speaker 1: that paid sick days for employees would reduce the spread
Speaker 1: of the flu. And maybe that's not a huge surprise,
Speaker 1: but the numbers are pretty surprising. I mean, for those
Speaker 1: who did not get paid sick time, you know, they're
Speaker 1: of course more likely to go to work sick and
Speaker 1: are therefore more likely to spread their illness. And of
Speaker 1: course this is something that can be abused to some extent,
Speaker 1: but when you consider the estimate that paid leave would
Speaker 1: reduce flu cases by six percent, it might just be
Speaker 1: worth it. You know, Mago, I gotta hand it to you.
Speaker 1: We've been talking about something which is not always the
Speaker 1: happiest topic, but you found something positive out of it.
Speaker 1: We have Mickey Mouse because of the flu, so I'm
Speaker 1: gonna have to give you this week's fact Off Trophy. Congratulations.
Speaker 1: Thanks very much. Alright, listeners, if we forgot any facts
Speaker 1: you feel like we should know about, we'd love to
Speaker 1: hear from you. It's part Time Genius at how stuff
Speaker 1: Works dot com. You can also call our seven fact
Speaker 1: hotline that's one eight four four pt Genius, or hit
Speaker 1: us up on book and Twitter. We love hearing from you,
Speaker 1: and thanks so much for listening. Thanks again for listening.
Speaker 1: Part Time Genius is a production of How Stuff Works
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