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Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show,

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Speaker 1: which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch

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Speaker 1: the show live this offseason, you can head to the

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Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash

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Speaker 1: at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern without further ado.

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Speaker 2: Here's this week's episode.

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Speaker 3: Welcome In. Welcome In. It's the Late Round Fantasy Football

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Speaker 3: Show sponsored by DraftKings. David Kitchen here alongside a boss,

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Speaker 3: JJ zchereson JJ. How's it going?

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Speaker 1: It's good Man had a week off, you know it.

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Speaker 1: It's one of those vacations though. You guys know this

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Speaker 1: if you're a parent to younger kids. You know, my

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Speaker 1: son's three, my daughters seven. My daughter's pretty easy to

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Speaker 1: you know, she's a very very good kid. Good too,

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Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, but he's my daughter. My daughter

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Speaker 1: is a rule follower, just one of the kindest souls

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Speaker 1: you'll ever meet. And she's just very easy going and

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Speaker 1: you know, easy to parent.

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Speaker 2: We're very lucky from that perspective.

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Speaker 3: CJ.

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Speaker 1: I love him to death, but he's a three year

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Speaker 1: old toddler. And my experience from girl to boy has

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Speaker 1: also been boys are wild, Like he's just insane in

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Speaker 1: a good way, in a fun way. But it doesn't

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Speaker 1: allow for that, you know, typical relaxation that you get,

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Speaker 1: you know, on vacations and such.

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Speaker 2: So it was a lot of fun.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: We were there with a couple other families. We had.

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Speaker 1: We had six parents and eight kids with us last

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Speaker 1: week at the beach and at the pool. It was

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Speaker 1: a good time. I'm glad to be back. Though I

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Speaker 1: like to do this stuff like this is my everyday life.

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Speaker 1: It was a week was a perfect amount of time

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Speaker 1: to be away in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, did you feel like when some of the news

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Speaker 3: broke We'll talk about in a second. I'll have to say,

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Speaker 3: like what is But did you feel like you needed

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Speaker 3: to kind of like get updated about it? You're like, nah,

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Speaker 3: I'll check on that later. Like how does connected were you?

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Speaker 1: I mean I saw people talking about Travis Hunter a lot,

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Speaker 1: and you know I was. I was at least checking

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Speaker 1: in on that stuff. But no, I mean I was

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Speaker 1: pretty disconnected. I didn't I don't think I missed many

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Speaker 1: picks and slow best ball drafts that I was in,

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Speaker 1: but you know, I was able to at least, you know,

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Speaker 1: detach from from the world. But I also see a

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Speaker 1: comment says, well, we all know who the golden child is.

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Speaker 2: Guys, that's not what I mean. I think you you

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Speaker 2: love every child.

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Speaker 1: Individually for who they are and what they provide, you know,

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Speaker 1: as humans, and it's it's honestly like fun and entertaining.

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Speaker 1: That seed is more unpredictable at this point, you know,

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Speaker 1: like anyone with a toddler knows exactly what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 1: Toddler's are just noting that people always talk about the

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Speaker 1: terrible twos. Threes are way way more difficult than twos.

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Speaker 1: Threes are insane because they can talk back to you

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Speaker 1: and say.

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Speaker 3: Stuff and throw stuff and do stuff. I think the

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Speaker 3: oldest are just they're the rule followers, man.

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 3: You know they the and then like things get more

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Speaker 3: lax as the.

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Speaker 2: Are the youngest.

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Speaker 1: I'm the youngest in my family, and I mean, to

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Speaker 1: be fair, I was a rule follower, but.

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Speaker 2: I could get away.

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Speaker 1: I could have gotten away with anything that I wanted

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Speaker 1: and I yeah, yeah, wink wink, No I was. I'm

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Speaker 1: definitely a rule follower, and I wish I wasn't, but

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Speaker 1: I'm a rule follower.

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Speaker 3: We have someone who says, preach three by far is

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Speaker 3: the worst. Listen, you you have to go through threes

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Speaker 3: so you can appreciate the fours.

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Speaker 2: That's right. That's that's what they said.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all it's all good from there.

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Speaker 2: So it's just it's just it's like it's like any and.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure my daughter was like this too. It's

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Speaker 1: just that you forget right, it was four years ago.

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Speaker 1: And so with CJ, you know, it's just one of

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Speaker 1: those things where like today I got him dressed for

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Speaker 1: school and and he I put a yellow shirt on

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Speaker 1: him and he's just like I was about to and

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Speaker 1: he's like, I'm not wearing that, you know, Like it's.

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Speaker 3: Like okay, Like no, well well yeah.

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Speaker 1: I'm like okay, then you can go pick out a

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Speaker 1: shirt and he's like, no, I don't want to wear

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Speaker 1: I don't want to go do that. And then I'm like,

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Speaker 1: when you're wearing this shirt, he won in the end

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Speaker 1: he's wearing a grave Digger shirt instead of the.

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Speaker 2: But sometimes you just gotta Sometimes you just gotta go.

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Speaker 1: I don't like giving in, I really really don't, because

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Speaker 1: I think it also can teach them, you know, the

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Speaker 1: wrong habits.

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Speaker 2: But sometimes when.

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Speaker 1: You're like, we gotta get out here, you gotta just uh,

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Speaker 1: you gotta just be like, fine, all right, grave digger

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Speaker 1: shirt it is, let's go.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how to transition from that. So I'll

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Speaker 3: just say, if you want to get the best info,

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Speaker 3: if you you know, if you say, hey, I want

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Speaker 3: that info, give it, give it to me now, JJ,

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Speaker 3: you can if you go to late round dot com

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Speaker 3: and order the Prospect Guide, because we have one hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventy something pages of the Prospect Guide. And uh,

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Speaker 3: I all I know is I reformatted or formatted a

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Speaker 3: table that JJ sent me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna talk about this on the

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Speaker 1: mail bag that goes out on Friday. But we've got

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Speaker 1: a lot of feedback about the new scoring system for

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Speaker 1: the app's the zapp model and how the scaling changed.

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Speaker 1: You know. I talked about that on a mail bag

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Speaker 1: episode and I think the last one that I did,

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Speaker 1: And so I've got a lot of feedback, more than

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Speaker 1: I expected. Usually I can predict like what kind of

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Speaker 1: feedback I'll get, and I'm like, Okay, I can do this.

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Speaker 1: I know I'm going to get some people in some responses,

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Speaker 1: but it's going to be okay because I can just

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Speaker 1: forward them to kitchen.

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Speaker 2: I'm just kidding because because.

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Speaker 1: How you know, we'll be able to handle it. This

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Speaker 1: one was even more than I expected, to be honest.

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Speaker 1: So basically the zapp model scaling changed and now you're

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Speaker 1: seeing better, in my opinion, a better representation of the

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Speaker 1: differential between one prospect to another, whereas before it was

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Speaker 1: more based on percentiles and such, and so I changed

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Speaker 1: it this year to have that scaling be better. And

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are saying, well, I want to

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Speaker 1: compare these prospects to prospects and other guides and such,

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Speaker 1: which I get. You know, it's not it's not actionable truly,

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Speaker 1: because we already have seen these guys play in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and like especially guys that you know from the first

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Speaker 1: iteration of the prospect guy there, those scores are irrelevant.

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Speaker 1: Not only has a model change, but those players have

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Speaker 1: played in the NFL for four years, right, So it's

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Speaker 1: just it's.

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Speaker 2: Just not that relevant.

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Speaker 1: But from just a content and curiosity standpoint, I get it.

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Speaker 1: I get that you want to sort of compare where

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Speaker 1: you know, Malik Neighbors was compared to some of these guys,

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Speaker 1: like to Jordan Tyson or what have you.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, Milik Neighbors is like.

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Speaker 1: It's still a lot better just because he was such

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Speaker 1: an elite prospect. But what I did was I created

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Speaker 1: a table that shows the old scores, so one hundred

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Speaker 1: ninety five, ninety eighty five.

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Speaker 2: I actually posted this in the Discord this week, but.

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Speaker 1: It'll be in the and then it will show the

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Speaker 1: ZAPP two point zero score and like what the equivalent

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Speaker 1: kind of is. So I will have that in the

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Speaker 1: post draft version of the guide.

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Speaker 2: It will be there. It'll be at the end of

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Speaker 2: the guide. We'll have a little table for you.

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Speaker 1: So if you're curious, is to you know, Jordan Tyson,

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Speaker 1: Let's say that he finishes with a score of ninety

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Speaker 1: three in the ZAP model, what does that mean for

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Speaker 1: the old ZAP model And you can kind of guestimate

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Speaker 1: where that would be, probably like a ninety seven, ninety

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Speaker 1: eight something like that, so it's more in like the

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Speaker 1: the JSN range or so.

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Speaker 2: So uh, yeah, hopefully you guys will get some help

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Speaker 2: with that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know, I think it's something that you know,

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Speaker 1: I want to show people that I'm trying to get

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Speaker 1: the best product out there and listen.

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Speaker 3: All right, So we also want to say thank you.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned Malik Neighbors and I can't quit him because

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Speaker 3: in an early best ball draft over there own DraftKings

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Speaker 3: this week in a slow draft, it was like, middle

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Speaker 3: of round two. I'm not you know, I just see

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Speaker 3: the potential there for.

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Speaker 2: I got autoed. I got autoed Molik Neighbors.

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Speaker 3: If you don't think too yeah, if you don't pick

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Speaker 3: an eight hours in a slow draft on DraftKings, you

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Speaker 3: will get autoed. And sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.

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Speaker 3: But we do want to say thank you to DraftKings

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Speaker 3: for helping to sponsor this show. We always appreciate the

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Speaker 3: you know, the feedback that we get from people that

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Speaker 3: are trying DraftKings the best ball product for the first time.

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Speaker 3: It's it's really a cool thing. Like you don't have

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Speaker 3: to go ham on early best balls, but it is

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Speaker 3: cool to kind of get in there and say, oh wow,

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Speaker 3: like these guys are going way later, like we'll talk

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Speaker 3: about in a second, like Travis Hunter, he's going in

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Speaker 3: the fourteenth or fifteenth round right now, and best Balls

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Speaker 3: and that's a that's a start contrast from where he

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Speaker 3: was last year. So we'll have a link and the

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Speaker 3: description if you want to go there. Also, we'll have

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Speaker 3: some rankings up there on Late Round dot com for

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Speaker 3: the Early Best Ball if you're a Patreon member, so

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Speaker 3: you can doal those and just import those and that

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Speaker 3: will get you a good starting point to what we're doing.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, the Early Best Ball contest, it's a million

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Speaker 3: dollar prize. And it like stops when the draft stops.

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Speaker 3: So you're drafting all these rookies not knowing where they are.

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Speaker 3: The rookies are there, but you have no clue where

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Speaker 3: they're going to be. So some of it's a little

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Speaker 3: bit spraying and praying, but that's all right. We appreciate

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Speaker 3: the folks at Draft Kings. The crown is yours, all right,

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Speaker 3: Matt says, whoa, We're live on a Wednesday, early afternoon.

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Speaker 2: This is this is usually when we do Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: mean this is where this is. Let me do it. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're just last week we didn't because I was in Florida.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I just want to say to the podcast listeners, hey,

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Speaker 3: just schedule it. Just schedule it, as you know, a

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Speaker 3: work meeting on a Wednesday noon Eastern and join us

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Speaker 3: here on the YouTube channel. All right, and with that

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Speaker 3: JJ you mentioned it, let's get into it. It's today's news,

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Speaker 3: today's fantasy news. All right. We're gonna start with I

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Speaker 3: have a Hunter, because other than reporter coaching relationships, that

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Speaker 3: probably is the biggest news item from the past week.

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Speaker 3: You had a report coming out. Of course, we've heard

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Speaker 3: some of the ruminations.

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Speaker 1: This is what's driving me nuts. Can I just yell

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Speaker 1: about this for a second.

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Speaker 3: Yeh, yeah, yeah, yeah, you don't have to yell, but

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Speaker 3: like a passionate response would be great.

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Speaker 2: So I saw this was I was on the beach

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Speaker 2: when all this was going on.

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Speaker 1: This is when I was scrolling Twitter and I saw

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Speaker 1: stuff pop up rap sheet reference that Travis Hunter was

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Speaker 1: gonna play more corner and not play much, you know,

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Speaker 1: like there was a special package kind of takeaway that

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Speaker 1: people were having from whatever. Rap sheet wasn't reporting anything new,

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Speaker 1: you guys, this is not a new report.

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Speaker 2: He was referencing I think a Colleen.

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Speaker 1: Wolf report from early from like a month and a

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Speaker 1: half ago, which, by the way, if you go back

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Speaker 1: and you listen to the Cell Candidates episode of the

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Speaker 1: Late Round, on that episode, I talked about selling Travis

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Speaker 1: Hunter because I thought that he was overrated in dynasty.

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Speaker 1: His his you know, I don't want to take a

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Speaker 1: w because you know, it's very early for that. But

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Speaker 1: his value has changed, right, It's dropped from where we

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Speaker 1: were in January to where we are now.

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Speaker 2: So I feel good about that.

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Speaker 1: Feel bad about how I was subjective with my evaluation

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Speaker 1: of him last year. I'm really mad about that that

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Speaker 1: I didn't just like you know that I was. I

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Speaker 1: was making so many excuses for Travis Hunter last year.

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Speaker 1: From a prospecting perspective, I think the model nailed Travis Hunter,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, but I'll regardless of that. This report

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Speaker 1: has been out there in different ways since January, and

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Speaker 1: we're recycling this thing, and for whatever reason, when rap

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Speaker 1: Sheet says it on.

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Speaker 2: NFL Network, now everyone's running with it and.

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Speaker 1: It's this big thing that people are reacting to in

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Speaker 1: fantasy football and everything. Guys, in these scenarios, in these situations,

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Speaker 1: this is exactly when you should go in the opposite

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Speaker 1: direction what the market is doing. Right where if you

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Speaker 1: see a really massive discount now on Travis Hunter, that's

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Speaker 1: when you pounce and you you know, shoot off a

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Speaker 1: random you know, mid second rounder or something for him,

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Speaker 1: because we know that there's not gonna be that much value,

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Speaker 1: especially in this draft and rookie drafts this year, and

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Speaker 1: just see what happens and start that conversation throwing another

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Speaker 1: random veteran or something to try to acquire Travis Hunter.

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Speaker 1: Because look, I even on that show I talked about how, yes,

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Speaker 1: I do think that Hunter's injury last year is a

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Speaker 1: key driving point as to why all of this is

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Speaker 1: happening right now. Because he gets injured, they trade for

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Speaker 1: Jacoby Myers, Parker Washington emerges, and now all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: you look at their top three wide receivers and you're like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this really works in eleven personnel and three wide receiver sets.

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Speaker 2: You got a great slot in Parker Washington.

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Speaker 1: You have Jacoby Myers who can move inside out, and

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Speaker 1: you have Brian Thomas who can stretch the field and

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Speaker 1: play on the perimeter and play that role.

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Speaker 2: So like, those three wide receivers work really well for

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Speaker 2: an offense. But here's the thing. Guys get hurt.

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Speaker 1: Things change, Just like things changed in an instant with

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Speaker 1: Travis Hunter last year when he got injured, he was

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Speaker 1: about to emerge as the guy in that offense.

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Speaker 2: It was very evident that it was about to happen.

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Speaker 3: And garbage time fourth quarter when he caught all those

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Speaker 3: rams again peppered with passes.

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Speaker 1: And so look, I think that Hunter is talented and good,

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Speaker 1: and you know, is he like elite elite like his

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Speaker 1: you can look at the prospect guy in the year

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Speaker 1: two stuff like, I don't think that he looks that

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Speaker 1: incredible from an advanced analytics standpoint in what he did

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Speaker 1: last year, because part of the thesis with him is that, oh,

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Speaker 1: even if it's limited, you know, even if his offensive

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Speaker 1: snaps are limited, he'll probably have a really high targets

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Speaker 1: per route run rate and like.

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Speaker 2: At blah blah blah blah blah.

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Speaker 1: And in hindsight, it's like, we should have definitely just

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Speaker 1: ignored a lot of that and just gone with That's

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Speaker 1: why I'm a little bit frustrated with the process that

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Speaker 1: I took. I got a little bit scared to be like,

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Speaker 1: because if you go back and listen to some of

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Speaker 1: the shows last year, I'm like, his analytical profiles a

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Speaker 1: little bit iffy, like there's a lot of question marks here.

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Speaker 1: But then I'm like okay, but he was in the

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Speaker 1: rooms with the wide receivers learning the offense, and he

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Speaker 1: wasn't getting the same amount of reps.

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Speaker 2: And you know, anytime he started.

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Speaker 1: Making excuses for players, it's a bad thing for prospects.

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Speaker 1: Regardless of all of that, now we're in this position

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Speaker 1: where his value has tanked because of a report that

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Speaker 1: is not even new, and it's crazy to me. So

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Speaker 1: if you can get him really cheap right now, I'm

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Speaker 1: fine with that. Because he even came out himself and

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Speaker 1: was like, Hey, who told you this? You know on

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Speaker 1: Twitter and whatnot.

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Speaker 3: That's exactly what he said. He reposted a clip and said,

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Speaker 3: who told you this? And I'm just going to give

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Speaker 3: you the ADP right now. Of the four receivers on DraftKings,

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Speaker 3: Parker Washington at sixty one, Brian Thomas Junior seventy four, yeah,

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Speaker 3: Jacoby Meyers ninety seven, Travis Hunter way over at one

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Speaker 3: sixty four. So even if you're avoiding him in your

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Speaker 3: best Ball or in your redrafts for Dynasty and Best Ball,

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Speaker 3: like you said, it's he might not be a bad

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Speaker 3: stab to take.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think.

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Speaker 1: I think in season long he's not someone I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be really that interested because you have to you have

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Speaker 1: to just like carry.

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Speaker 2: That weight around.

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Speaker 3: And I've already told us to avoid him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, like yeah, I just it's a really really tough

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Speaker 1: kind of player to buy into, right, But look, an

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Speaker 1: injury happens and all of a sudden, he's probably more

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Speaker 1: of an eighty percent kind of player on offense, right,

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Speaker 1: even if he's like a fifty percent or forty percent

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Speaker 1: or something to start the season, one injury changes everything.

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Speaker 1: He can line up everywhere like he's a he's a

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Speaker 1: really capable wide receiver. So that's where I'm at with

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Speaker 1: Travis Hunter. Maybe it's not a super strong stance, but

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Speaker 1: my stance is that feel good about how I felt

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Speaker 1: about him in January, and it hasn't really changed because

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Speaker 1: the reporting hasn't really changed. The only thing that's changed

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Speaker 1: is the way that people are interpreting the reporting. So

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Speaker 1: keep that in mind whenever you hear these reports and

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Speaker 1: hear all that happen.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's transition to the Eagles passing it to I

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Speaker 3: just I separated this because there was a trade. Dontavian

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Speaker 3: Wicks goes to the Eagles, So this opens up an

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Speaker 3: interesting situation in Green Bay. But also we got to

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Speaker 3: talk about this Eagles passing attack. Let's just assume we'll

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Speaker 3: talk about the A. J. Brown thing and say, let's

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Speaker 3: just assume that they're lying and the AJ Brown's not

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Speaker 3: gonna be with the team on June first, JJ, what

347
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Speaker 3: does this Eagles passing attack look like now? With Dotavian

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Speaker 3: Wicks as a potential wide receiver too.

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Speaker 2: I've liked Wix. I mean, like it's not really a

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Speaker 2: secret if you listen to the show.

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Speaker 1: I think that Wix is a pretty good wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: and so I think that he's capable of being there too.

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Speaker 1: DeVante Smith, though I've also been I feel like I

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Speaker 1: have DeVante Smith as a target and fantasy every year.

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Speaker 1: But I'm a big DeVante Smith fan. I thought he

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Speaker 1: was a really good prospect. I think that he's more

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Speaker 1: than capable of making somewhat of a leap, you know.

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Speaker 1: I know that he's a little bit further in his career. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I've seen like the JSN, like he can do a

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Speaker 1: JSN did. Jayson's not in the same part of his

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Speaker 1: career because you know where DeVante Smith is. But I

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Speaker 1: think that Smith is very capable of being a twenty

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Speaker 1: eight percent target chair play. He's done that when when

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Speaker 1: one of AJ Brown and Dallas got her been out.

365
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Speaker 1: I mean, we've seen that happen with DeVante Smith, so

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Speaker 1: very bullish on Davonte Smith. It sounds like this is

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Speaker 1: like like when have we ever heard rumors this strong

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Speaker 1: that doesn't end up happening? You know, it does feel

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Speaker 1: like this is almost definitely a J.

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Speaker 2: Brown is going to be a patriot. And I had

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Speaker 2: talked about this on a Mailbag episode about AJ Brown.

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Speaker 1: You know, is it an upgrade? Yeah, I'd probably say

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Speaker 1: it's an upgrade overall. But my fear is that people

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Speaker 1: are gonna take it a little bit too far, you know,

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Speaker 1: that that there's just gonna be a little bit too

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Speaker 1: much AJ Brown steam by the time August comes around,

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Speaker 1: and that might scare me off a little bit. I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna say I'm at market, you know, with with Brown.

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Speaker 1: I kind of alluded to that back on that show.

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Speaker 1: But I'm excited for DeVante Smith. I'm excited for Dantavian Wix.

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Speaker 1: I got a lot of Dantavian Wicks and Dynasty that

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Speaker 1: I'm that I'm pumped about. And then on the Packers side.

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Speaker 1: You know, since we're talking about it, we now have

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Speaker 1: you know, the biggest problem with the Packers is their rotation.

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Speaker 1: It's always been the rotation.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: And now we have a very clear three in Christian Watson,

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Speaker 1: who I've actually taken a decent amount of early on

389
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Speaker 1: in these Best Ball drafts. Christian Watson, Jaden Reid, who

390
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,399
Speaker 1: I also have taken a lot of in the Matthew Golden,

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Speaker 1: who I've not taken a lot of, but we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Like I'm keeping an open mind about Matthew Golden, I

393
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Speaker 1: know that I've been more on the cell side than

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Speaker 1: the byside for sure with Golden, because very rarely do

395
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Speaker 1: we see this is just a probability driven thing. Very

396
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Speaker 1: rarely do we see a prospect with as many red

397
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Speaker 1: flags as he had who then didn't do anything as

398
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Speaker 1: a rookie end up being something very significant in fantasy football.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think it's going to be a player

400
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Speaker 1: that absolutely burns us.

401
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Speaker 2: Now. Could he go down the DeVante Adams path?

402
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 1: Sure, I thought Adams was a better prospect in terms of, like,

403
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,919
Speaker 1: you know, not necessarily like when you include draft capital,

404
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,479
Speaker 1: but adjusted for draft capital, like if you're looking at

405
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Speaker 1: how they compare to where they were drafted.

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Speaker 2: Adams and the ZAM model looks better than Matthew Golden.

407
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Speaker 2: Matthew Golden was like a high risk player.

408
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Speaker 1: But you know, Adams started off really slow and then

409
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 1: became something. But anytime you compare to an outlier like that,

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Speaker 1: you're probably gonna lose out more often than not. So

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to be level headed about this. Matthew Golden,

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Speaker 1: you know, didn't have a great collegiate production profile, blew

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Speaker 1: up towards the end of his college career that I

414
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,400
Speaker 1: think elevated him in the draft. That in the forty time,

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00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 1: and what he did at the Combine and then last

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Speaker 1: year he just couldn't find the field enough. Slash wasn't

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Speaker 1: very effective when he was on the field. He had

418
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 1: like a one point three to one point four yards

419
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 1: prout run ray, which is fine for rookie, but it's

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00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,439
Speaker 1: not like elite, you know. And so I look at

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Speaker 1: what Christian Watson did last year. I thought he played

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00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,200
Speaker 1: the best football of his life last year. And I'm

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Speaker 1: really excited about the possibility of Jayden Reid playing more

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00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 1: on the perimeter like both him and Josh Downs. The

425
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 1: guys who have been really trapped in a slot finally

426
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Speaker 1: have this opportunity this year to maybe play a little

427
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Speaker 1: bit more on the outside. And if that happens, they're

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Speaker 1: both very talented players. I'm going to be in on that.

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Speaker 1: Like I think Downs is really undervalued right now in

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Speaker 1: best Ball. It's just a you know, a matter of

431
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Speaker 1: will those coaches give them that opportunity. I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: buy into that because at the very least, they're going

433
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Speaker 1: to play a similar role as they played, So they're

434
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Speaker 1: going to give you some production or some spiked weeks,

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Speaker 1: whatever the case may be.

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Speaker 2: But there's a ceiling there.

437
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,679
Speaker 1: There's a clear path to getting more volume and playing

438
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 1: more So I like both both those guys, But but

439
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 1: Jaden Reid in particular with the Packers, he could play

440
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 1: a little bit more on the perimeter and that would

441
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 1: be very good for his fantasy. Valcame.

442
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,639
Speaker 3: Is there any situation where you think aj Brown just

443
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 3: lands in a smash spot.

444
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 2: I think the Patriots are one of the smash spots. Like,

445
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:23,360
Speaker 2: that's one of the best.

446
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 1: I mean, Romeo Dobbs I said this whenever the free

447
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 1: agency show happened. It's like he's fine I don't. I

448
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,360
Speaker 1: just don't think he's like a really really I got

449
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: autoed Romeo Dobbs. I was so mad because I loved

450
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: Romeo dobs last year, you know, when we like he

451
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 1: was one of my highest roster players because he was

452
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 1: like a fifteenth round pick for most of the summer.

453
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 1: You know, now it's just not he's a single ditch

454
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 1: round pick. And it's just a difficult thing to buy

455
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 1: into when I think that he's like a solid player,

456
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: like a wide receiver two on a real team wide

457
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 1: receiver three kind of ceiling in fantasy AJ Brown would

458
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 1: I mean in New England, he could, he could do work.

459
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 1: It's just that my fear is that a lot of

460
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,199
Speaker 1: people are going to just make the natural tie to

461
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 1: Drake May what he can do. The lack of competition there,

462
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 1: you know of like really really great competition and AJ

463
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: Brown being AJ Brown like he's a beast. I said

464
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,439
Speaker 1: this on the show, like like AJ Brown had a

465
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 1: down season, but his down season is still way better

466
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 1: than any like ninety five percent of wide receivers in football.

467
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 2: You know, like he's still a good player.

468
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 1: I do think that there's probably he's probably in that

469
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: downward trajectory right now.

470
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 2: But he's still a very good player. The fear, though,

471
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: is that it just gets out of hand.

472
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 1: So I'm just trying to like project what the market

473
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: might be doing here. Maybe it doesn't and so we'll

474
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 1: be in But I think New England's a great spot

475
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 1: for him.

476
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 3: Overall Shenanigans, they get out of hand. I'm with you there,

477
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 3: all right, let's talk Kirk Cousins in Vegas.

478
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 2: I forgot that he went to Vegas.

479
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, because we had this a big board and this

480
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 3: is like I was kind of excited because it's the

481
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 3: only name, you know, on this list of available free

482
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 3: agents that we've had answered so far, so I get

483
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 3: to mark them off the list. But he's in Vegas,

484
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 3: and now there's all this talk about Mendoza and Cousins

485
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:15,120
Speaker 3: similar situation in Atlanta, and so you know, I don't

486
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 3: want to make this a best ball show, but I'm

487
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,679
Speaker 3: I'm already having and seeing issues of like trying to

488
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,719
Speaker 3: choose between and figure out what to do there or

489
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 3: just stay away.

490
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 1: You know, Look, I would be shocked if Mendoza is

491
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 1: not starting the second half of the season at the

492
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: very least, right, I'd be pretty surprised if he's not

493
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 1: under center. I think that this was a very smart

494
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 1: move by Vegas, like a really good signing because you know,

495
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: you get another guy who will shop at Kohle's with

496
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: your with your quarterback.

497
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, you get Honestly, it's funny.

498
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 1: Like the personality wise and the way they kind of

499
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 1: approach things is not that they're both just kind of quirky,

500
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 1: like interesting.

501
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 3: There's gonna be some collabse there for sure.

502
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just like a wholesome kind of they embrace.

503
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 3: They embrace the you know that you like that type

504
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 3: of stuff.

505
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, they don't. They don't run away. For I respect that.

506
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: I can respect exactly.

507
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mendoza, Mendoza is the same way. It's just corny,

508
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: but he's not like Russell Wilson corny. You know, Russell

509
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: Wilson is like Russell Wilson Corny is like he's trying

510
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,719
Speaker 1: to act hard way, whereas no, this is just what

511
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: Mendoes is, is just what Kirk Cousins is.

512
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: So I respect that.

513
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: So I think from like a personality perspective, I bet

514
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 1: they mesh. But I don't know, man, I have a

515
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: hard time, you know, usually with a first overall pick

516
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: and a first rounder even top half of the first round.

517
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: Quarter My general mantra is that quarterbacks are gonna play

518
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: sooner than you think. You know, It's just it's just

519
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 1: how it usually goes. There's a lot of pressure. Vegas

520
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: isn't structurally built to be super competitive, and you know,

521
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 1: why why just ride Kirk Cousins all of Yr one

522
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 1: when Mendoz is a relatively ready quarterback. It's just that,

523
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 1: from like a ceiling perspective, there are question marks about

524
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: like how awesome of a prospect he is, but he's

525
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: at least like ready and pro pro ready, and so

526
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: you know, from from that perspective, I think we'll see

527
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 1: Mendoza at some point this year. And from a basketball perspective,

528
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 1: it's gonna be really hard for me to go, like,

529
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: I hope we get a dis kind of Mendoza. Not

530
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: that I'm gonna be drafting a ton of them, but like,

531
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: that's the second half of the year that's gonna be way.

532
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: That's just way more important than fantasy fotball in general,

533
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: but definitely in best ball, where you know, each of

534
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 1: those playoff weeks are just so important to have active players.

535
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 3: All right, We're a little over a week away from

536
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 3: finding out where Jeremiah Love goes, and then you know,

537
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 3: we can we can figure out what's gonna happen after that.

538
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 3: But there's just so much smoke about him being drafted

539
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 3: in the top five, all this talk about the Titans

540
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 3: loving him. If he doesn't go, then the Giants can

541
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: draft him. I want to I want to point you

542
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 3: to a tweet from Peter Schrager says, I got a

543
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: text from a respected NFLGM in response to a heated

544
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 3: discussion we had on the Schreger Hour over whether a

545
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: team can really take a safety downs in the top

546
00:24:55,640 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 3: five in twenty twenty six. Throw positional value out this

547
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 3: year food for thought. So when it comes to positional

548
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 3: value and love and safety with downs, what's your talk?

549
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 3: What's your take on this whole concept.

550
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: So one of the very first episodes of the Late

551
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 1: Round podcast was on positional value, because there was it

552
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 1: was around the time that Saquon Barkley was drafted. Uh,

553
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: it might have been before that, whatever, but but I

554
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 1: remember when Dave Gettelman uh talked about positional value being

555
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 1: a bunch of crock is what he said.

556
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: Right, The easy.

557
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: Anytime something like this happens, where like you're trying to

558
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: explain a concept, I think it's really helpful to go

559
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: to the extreme with a hypothetical, Right, I do that

560
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 1: on the podcast all the time, and I'm gonna do

561
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: it on the mailbag this week, but not for this

562
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 1: topic but another one.

563
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 2: But just think of it this way.

564
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: If positional value was irrelevant, then why are we not

565
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: getting kickers in the first round consistently?

566
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 2: That's that's the easiest way to think of this.

567
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: Clearly, positional value is going to have some inherent part

568
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: of your evaluation process because you're not drafting kickers or

569
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 1: punners early on.

570
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 2: You could have the best like what what if.

571
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: Your punner or your kicker is really really, really really good,

572
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: why are you not drafting? Well, you're not drafting in

573
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: the first round because you know that there's some variants involved,

574
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: and there's you know, they're not getting paid as much,

575
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: and you can get kickers, and there's a supply and

576
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: demand problem, et cetera, et cetera. That's why you're not

577
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: doing it. It's a very similar argument for running back. Now,

578
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: I am not I retired from running back value debates

579
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 1: years ago because it got I just grew so tired

580
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 1: of it and it just was it's not fantasy focused,

581
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: and I want to focus my attention on fantasy.

582
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: I used to do it a lot. For Number Fire.

583
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 2: There was a lot of running Back related.

584
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 3: It was a big conversation back there running Back.

585
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 1: I wrote an article for Number Fire that's no longer

586
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 1: on the internet because that whole site's gone. But the

587
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: title of it was, Saquon Barkley can be a generational talent,

588
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: but he's still not going to be a good pick.

589
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: That was the title of the article, something along those lines.

590
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 1: And the idea is, yes, Jeremiah Love could be generational,

591
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: and these guys can be generational. But you can simply

592
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 1: look at how teams pay these players and see how

593
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 1: they view these positions in terms of value.

594
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 3: Right.

595
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 2: And I'm not saying that's the end all. I'm not

596
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 2: saying that he can't be valuable. I'm not saying that

597
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 2: John Robinson, Jamier Gibbs aren't valuable. That's not my point.

598
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: My point is when you go and you and you

599
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 1: spend on something, because that's what the teams are doing here.

600
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 1: They have precious equity and capital in the draft and

601
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: they're using that to get players, and there's an opportunity

602
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: cost involved in doing that.

603
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 2: And if you go when you draft Jeremiah Love as

604
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: the Titans in.

605
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: The top five, you know, could he put butts in

606
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,719
Speaker 1: the stands and could he be a really good player

607
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 1: for that franchise. Sure, if that's part of your evaluation, fine,

608
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: go for it. I don't, I don't care. You know,

609
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 1: it's fine. But the way that rookie rookies get paid

610
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: is that there is a locked in salary for these

611
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: positions in the and so him getting a running back

612
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: being paid getting drafted fourth.

613
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 2: Overall, you are much better off spending it on.

614
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: A higher quality position like wide receiver or corner, whatever

615
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,360
Speaker 1: the case may be, defensive end because those guys get

616
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,479
Speaker 1: paid more, you know, and so if you hit on

617
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 1: that player, there is more to gain.

618
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 2: From that hit.

619
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 1: Right, Another analogy that you could you could run with

620
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: this to talk about to talk about just value in general.

621
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: And how what was the quote from the the Schrigger

622
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 1: thing that throw positional.

623
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 2: Value out this year?

624
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 3: Right?

625
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, to throw it out. Imagine going to the grocery store.

626
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: Okay, imagine going to the grocery store and you say,

627
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 1: you know what, I really want an apple and a steak. Okay,

628
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 1: but we know that some some some slab of meat

629
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: is way more valuable than an apple. Okay, the very

630
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: best apple, the greatest apple that you've ever tasted, or

631
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: like a ninety fifth percentile apple, let's say, is still

632
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: going to be less valuable than a tenth percentile slab

633
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: of meat because of the value of that thing. So

634
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love can be very, very good and still not

635
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: be as valuable as a lower tiered.

636
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: You know, not doesn't hit in a significant way. Wide receiver.

637
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 2: Let's say, not only that Tennessee has a freaking need

638
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 2: at wide receiver.

639
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 3: You know that.

640
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: That's the other thing that drives me nuts here is

641
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 1: that there's wide receivers that are being projected that are

642
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 1: very good, that are being projected to go in the

643
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 1: top ten, and if they opt to get the running back,

644
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: I just think that that's bad process in general. Right,

645
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 1: And they also have two viable running backs right now

646
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: that they can get through the season with, right. Yeah.

647
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: So the idea here is not to say that like

648
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: I think Jeremiah Love is bad or anything like that.

649
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: I just I can't believe that we're.

650
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 1: In the year twenty twenty six and people can't comprehend

651
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: the concept of value, like it's the most basic thing

652
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 1: on earth, and gms just ignore it because they want

653
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: to go get that guy and get their guy. And

654
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: I know people are screw in their cars right now

655
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: about Jamier Gibbs and how people felt about Gibbs, et cetera,

656
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: et cetera.

657
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 2: I get it, Like.

658
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that that like it can't work out

659
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: or that. But the Lions also built differently than where

660
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: the Tenant were built and are in and ended up

661
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: building really well and hitting on a lot of picks,

662
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: which allowed that Jamier Gibbs pick to look a lot

663
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: better in hindsight than where Tennessee is at. You have

664
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: to think about range of outcomes here, and also when

665
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: we approach a draft or when.

666
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: When teams are are evaluating these players. What's also really interesting.

667
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: Is they're like, oh, this is a week draft class,

668
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 1: therefore we can just throw positional value out the window

669
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: and not worry about it.

670
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 2: That's cocky.

671
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: There's a lot of arrogance in that statement because you're saying,

672
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: we know how these guys are going to the NFL

673
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: draft has so much variance that you're making the assumption

674
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: that you know exactly how these edge rushers or wide

675
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: receivers are going to perform. But what we really should

676
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: be doing is, Okay, there's a talent evaluation within the position.

677
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: So Jeremiah Love is very, very good within the running

678
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: back position. But then there's a value you know, composition

679
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 1: and evaluation that we have to do of how good

680
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: these positions actually are, because that gives us at least

681
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 1: some baseline that if a wide receiver.

682
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: You know, Rashad Bateman's a good example of this.

683
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: Rashad Bateman, is he a miss in the NFL from

684
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: an NFL perspective, Probably right, But him missing by the

685
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: degree in which he missed as a late first round

686
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: pick is still more valuable. Then even if you get

687
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: a decent hit from a running back in that range,

688
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: you know, just just look at salaries period. And so

689
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: that's my issue with just like throwing out positional value.

690
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 2: I just don't think it's very logical. I know people

691
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 2: are going to disagree.

692
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: I don't want to get into the like back and

693
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: forth of running back value and stuff. That's not the

694
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: point of this rant. It's just the fact that it's

695
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 1: a slow time in the news cycle. We got to

696
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 1: talk about this kind of stuff because and also, like,

697
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 1: I think it's important for us to like critically think

698
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 1: about this stuff. You don't have to agree with me,

699
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: but I'm at least taking a step back and trying

700
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 1: to think through all of these things. And I want

701
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: others to really think through all this stuff instead of

702
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 1: you know, these talking heads going on TV saying, Oh,

703
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: he's an offensive weapon.

704
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 2: What does that even mean? What does that mean?

705
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: So he's an offensive weapon, but Jordan Tyson's not an

706
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: offensive weapon.

707
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 2: Like, just get out of here with this garbage.

708
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: You're just making up excuses to be able to take

709
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love in the top five period. That's all that

710
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 1: That's all that means. So that's all this is about.

711
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: That's all this brand is about. Let's critically think about

712
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 1: this stuff. Let's be smart about this stuff and have

713
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: real genuine conversations instead of, Oh, Jamiir Gibbs is good,

714
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: b John Robinson is good.

715
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 2: Atlanta has been horrible, you know, like it's it's what

716
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 2: does it even mean? It's just it drives me nuts.

717
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 3: I think, was it even mean? Needs to be it's

718
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 3: like a clip that we use. What it even mean?

719
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 3: I probably say it quite a bit. All right, from that,

720
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 3: let's talk about let's have another conversation JJ, let's talk

721
00:32:55,960 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 3: about projected versus actual wide receivers today data. All right,

722
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 3: here we have top one hundred wide receivers by year

723
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: projected versus actual value.

724
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I was actually kind of curious about this.

725
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: So I looked at NFL mock Draft database data going

726
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 1: back to twenty sixteen, and I listed how many wide

727
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: receivers we've seen in the top one hundred get drafted,

728
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: you know, via actual like what we actually saw, and

729
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: then also what NFL mock Draft database had going into

730
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: the draft. And right now we have seventeen in the

731
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: top one hundred, which is the second most since twenty sixteen,

732
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: behind twenty twenty four. You can see though, in the

733
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: delta column, which is the difference between actual and NFL

734
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 1: mock Draft Database projection. I mean, the average overall has

735
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: been pretty on point. It looks like NFL mock Draft

736
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: database does inflate the number of wide receivers that get drafted,

737
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: typically in the top one hundred, but it's by point

738
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: four per season on average. Because some seasons we've had

739
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 1: plus two, so two more guys got drafted in the

740
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: top one hundred than NFL Mock Draft Database projected. Sometimes

741
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: we have it, you know, there's another plus two. Sometimes

742
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: we have minus two minus four. But like as you

743
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: can see, like the last four years before twenty twenty six,

744
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 1: they've been dead on NFL Mock Draft database with the

745
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: number of wide receivers three of the four years with

746
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: a number of wide receivers that went in the top

747
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: one hundred, and how many they had in the top

748
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: one hundred. So right now there's seventeen, which means based

749
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 1: on this, I think we're looking at sixteen probably sixteen

750
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 1: day two, day one and two wide receivers in this draft,

751
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 1: which you know, I think that a lot of these

752
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 1: guys have average I said this on the show with

753
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: Harmon like average to above average profiles. I'll say it

754
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: again as I said on this show. Because of that,

755
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: we're gonna get some hits that you know, we don't

756
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: really expect or you know, they land in the right

757
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 1: spot and we're.

758
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 2: Like, okay, yeah, I can see that that working out.

759
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 1: Because I just think that there's enough like like a

760
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 1: lot of the guys in round two and round three

761
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,879
Speaker 1: that are projected to go there, we'll have neutral too

762
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: high risk draft capital delta profiles, which means the model

763
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 1: does that model is going to view them a little

764
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 1: bit less favorably than what their draft capital says. Now,

765
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: their overall profiles, I say, are average to above average,

766
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: because I'm just looking at that in the context of

767
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: the entire draft class. Right, there's just a lot of

768
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: dudes who are fine. But yeah, like, I think it's

769
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: an interesting thing to think about, and I would I

770
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,919
Speaker 1: would imagine we see a lot of those Day two

771
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: wide receivers, which means that Friday night is going to

772
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: be very, very busy for us at late round Fantasy football.

773
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I mean, I'm excited. I know some people

774
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 3: talk about like this being like a down class. It's

775
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 3: still it doesn't matter how down the class is at

776
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 3: any position, it's still fun to see where guys are going.

777
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 3: If anything, just to panic about guys that you already have, Yeah,

778
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 3: you know, and and what's gonna happen there? All right,

779
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 3: With that being said, let's get on to it. It's

780
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:07,399
Speaker 3: the main event, the late round main event, all right, JJ,

781
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: Here we have rookie sleepers, and just to remind people

782
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 3: in case someone is watching this video later on and like,

783
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,240
Speaker 3: I can't believe this is before the NFL Draft I started.

784
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 3: These are pre NFL draft rookie sleepers. And uh, let's

785
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 3: start with a guy that he just got injured, Eric McCallister.

786
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 2: Yeah. I feel like it wasn't really a headline either. Yeah.

787
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 3: In fact, I when I saw sy he's the he's

788
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 3: a cover boy. And then when I U like did

789
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 3: some research to pull a photo, I see, oh, he

790
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 3: got injured during pro Day, and then I had to

791
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 3: come back to make sure you had it on there

792
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: because like JJ may not know he's on here that

793
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: he you know, he injured himself.

794
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 2: Yeah.

795
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I honestly didn't even realize until I started

796
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 1: doing research for the show.

797
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 2: Uh that's part of being away last week too.

798
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, I do want to say that Eric

799
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: McCallister might go undrafted because of some off the field

800
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,240
Speaker 1: stuff and Dane Brugler's I was talking to Harmon about

801
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 1: this and Dane Brugler's The Beast, which is a phenomenal

802
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: resource for prospect stuff. Uh, there's a I shouldn't be

803
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: lie it's not funny. It's just crazy that it says

804
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 1: there's a second misdemeanor count of terroristic threat causing fear

805
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 1: of imminent serious bodily injury that was against Eric McAllister.

806
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 1: Like he there's a gun charge, felony gun charge for him.

807
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: So it's something that we have to keep in mind

808
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 1: with the way that teams might view him.

809
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 2: And there are people who don't.

810
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: Think that McAllister is very like I harmon off air

811
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: was not very you know or like in text messages,

812
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: and very high on McAllister. I think Brugler is not

813
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: very high on McAllister. So I highly doubt this all

814
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 1: comes together. But this is a sleeper show. We're just

815
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 1: having some fun today. You know these are these are

816
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 1: fourth I mean, I think the fantasy community might end

817
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: up being irrationally high on McAllister because of his age. Justin

818
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 1: products is kind of good, it's actually pretty good. But

819
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:06,439
Speaker 1: most of these guys are like fourth round dart throws

820
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 1: in your rookie draft. But look, McAllister, he's a TCU

821
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: wide out that's gonna turn a lot of people off.

822
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: We have not seen TCU hits in a minute. It's

823
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,320
Speaker 1: been it's been a rough decade for TCU wide receivers.

824
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: With that being said, he has a ninety second percentile

825
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,879
Speaker 1: breakout score. He had a ninety third percentile career yards

826
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: PERU run rate, ninety fourth when just looking out wide,

827
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 1: ninety first percentile career first downs per out run rate,

828
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: his yak perception eighty six percentile, avoided tackles perception ninety

829
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: six percentile. And with Brandon's work that he's done the

830
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, we've learned that a lot of

831
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:46,240
Speaker 1: the avoided tackles and yak stuff does translate to the NFL.

832
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 1: So that's kind of interesting in my opinion. So you

833
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 1: get this Jones fracture though at his pro day, which

834
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 1: is a really big deal. You get the the the

835
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 1: the off the field stuff, which is a big deal.

836
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 1: I think his draft capital is probably gonna I mean,

837
00:38:58,000 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 1: we'll be lucky if he gets drafted Day three at

838
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:00,399
Speaker 1: this point, I think.

839
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 2: But I do think the profile is at least interesting.

840
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 3: To call him out on today's show, is that TCU

841
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 3: wide receiver shade directed at Quentin Johnson, Well QJ.

842
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 2: That's more Jalen Rager. Okay, at least with QJ.

843
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: Like.

844
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 2: Qj's another one of those guys.

845
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: We're like, yeah, he's definitely not lived up to where

846
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 1: he was drafted, right, Like.

847
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:19,879
Speaker 3: But he did last year.

848
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, but likes And we might look back at Qj's

849
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: career and be like, Okay, he was fine.

850
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 2: He was He wasn't Jalen Rager.

851
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: You know, Jalen Rager is a complete bust, just a

852
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: total bust. But QJ is not quite that. And you know,

853
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 1: given that, like when he goes and gets another contract,

854
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: look at Qj's contract compared to what a running back

855
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: gets and that I'll just go.

856
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: Back to that that value discussion.

857
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 3: Okay, let's get to a hybrid position player. This is

858
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 3: gonna be a fun one.

859
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll let you say the last name, Eli Heidenrach.

860
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 1: He's a he's a I believe, a Mount Lebanon Pittsburgh guy.

861
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: That's a that's the other side of the city where

862
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 1: I grew up on. But he I believe is a

863
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: y inser deep down. He went to Navy. He can

864
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: line up in the backfield, he can play in the slot.

865
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 1: He was I mean, his his market share numbers broke

866
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: the model and I had to do a little bit

867
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: of a capping on it because it was just so

868
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: ridiculous out.

869
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 3: Of control because of the.

870
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 1: Implement have to adjust for Navy's offense, and so I

871
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: had to adjust that because then I would be getting

872
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 1: thousands of questions about Eli Hydeen Rak. But but I

873
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:32,359
Speaker 1: think it's one of those things where we can absolutely say, oh,

874
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 1: this is an interesting problem. Like again the guy, the model.

875
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 1: It's there to like get us directionally where we want

876
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 1: to be. And so with Hide and Reik, we can

877
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 1: say like, oh, this is kind of interesting. Maybe there's

878
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: something there. He went to the Combine as a running back,

879
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: and so he's in the database as a running back.

880
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 1: He is one hundred percentile, he's the best pro rated,

881
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 1: best season reception share, one hundred percentile, best season adjusted

882
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 1: yards per team pass attempt, ninetieth percentile, explosive run rate.

883
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: Like he's athletic, he can line up everywhere if he

884
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 1: gets an interesting and good offensive coordinator.

885
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: I think there could be something there with Hide and

886
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:06,359
Speaker 2: rank Uh.

887
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: People have you know, it's probably a more than just

888
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,879
Speaker 1: football comp but people have thrown the spider charts out

889
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 1: there and stuff with him versus Christan McCaffrey, which I

890
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: think is kind of interesting, uh and funny, but he's

891
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:21,240
Speaker 1: clearly not CMC.

892
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: There's more.

893
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: Profile, but he has he has the receiving skill set

894
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: that a team might really want to deploy and utilize.

895
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 2: We'll just see. I think he's still gonna be a

896
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:31,839
Speaker 2: Day three pick.

897
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,879
Speaker 3: Honestly, it's a fun question as far as what could

898
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,720
Speaker 3: CMC have done in an Avy offense?

899
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, yeah, like what like.

900
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 3: What what would you what would it have looked like?

901
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 1: There's been some players that that have come out uh

902
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:53,879
Speaker 1: over the last you know, I guess I've been doing

903
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 1: this and I've been prospecting for nine years or so.

904
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,240
Speaker 1: But there's a guy out of Air Force named Jalen

905
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: Robinette that people might remember. He's a wide receiver, big body,

906
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 1: six four two fifteen, and his market share numbers were

907
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: out of control because when you get one good player

908
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,959
Speaker 1: in these offenses, they just only they just go through

909
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: that player, and so their numbers just look out of

910
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 1: control and great, all right.

911
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 3: The next guy I've got a little bit of an

912
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 3: issue with because when I was creating the rankings for

913
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 3: tight ends in the Prospect Guide, this guy has the

914
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 3: longest name, John Michael Gillenborg, Jack Gilberborg. Gillenborg is a

915
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 3: huge it's a long name. It's not just John as

916
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 3: John Michael Gillenborg.

917
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish that I would have like talked about

918
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 1: him earlier, because like there's only I know that I

919
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: do a lot of shows, but there's only so much

920
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: that I can talk about on each show, and he's

921
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:51,879
Speaker 1: one of those players where like every week I'm like, oh,

922
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 1: maybe I should bring him up, but there's not really

923
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 1: a spot for me to bring him up.

924
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: But this show is definitely a spot to bring him up.

925
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 1: He's a tight end from Wyoming, Okay, ninety first centile

926
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 1: high adjusted speed score breakout score, which is in the

927
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,439
Speaker 1: tight end model is adjusted for program strength, so that's

928
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: important for Wyoming, and it's adjusted for age fifty third

929
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 1: percentile not terrible, eighty six percentile career yards.

930
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 2: Per out run.

931
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 1: That's not adjusted, which is important, eighty four percent percentile

932
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 1: career first downs per out run.

933
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 2: And then I ran a fun little query.

934
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: Even though I don't love the threshold stuff, I just

935
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: think it's fun to see what pops up whenever you

936
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 1: look at what these dudes did in college and how

937
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 1: that might translator what kind of comps you can you

938
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 1: can pop up? Okay, his career yards per out run

939
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 1: is above one point nine, so I looked at all

940
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,439
Speaker 1: players above that mark, and it's not that much above

941
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 1: one point nine.

942
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:40,919
Speaker 2: So it is a little bit.

943
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 1: Unfair this this threshold high adjustice speed score above the

944
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 1: ninetieth percentile. He again, he's in the ninety first percentile.

945
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: So again these are like the minimum for him, So

946
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 1: all the guys should be a little bit better. These

947
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:53,720
Speaker 1: are the guys in the that model database, which technically

948
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 1: will go back to like twenty sixteen or so, just

949
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: given when the yards per run data goes back to

950
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts, Evan Ingram, Eli Stours, Alberto who was everyone

951
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: loved Alberta back in the day, George Kittle, Zach Kuntz,

952
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: and John Michael Gillenborg. Those are the tight ends that

953
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 1: fit those thresholds.

954
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 2: I don't know.

955
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: I think he's a fun Day three sleeper. I think

956
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 1: he's I think he's a he's athletic. He's got decent

957
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: enough production and sometimes that's all you need.

958
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 3: Okay, just the chat from we have multiple comments, and

959
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 3: now I'm not gonna be able to get out of

960
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:29,479
Speaker 3: my head, so I want to be in your head.

961
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 3: It's that we had John Jacob Jingle harm Schmidt. Yeah, yeah,

962
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 3: that's my name too. Yeah, John Michael Lienborg Titan, Wyoming.

963
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 2: Yes, stretch.

964
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 3: Let's get to Seth mcgallan from Kentucky. It's an easy

965
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 3: name to say.

966
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's an old, he's he's a he's an unk

967
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 2: for sure.

968
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,399
Speaker 3: Seems like a lot of running backs from Kentucky. That's

969
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 3: just like the stereotype is like older running.

970
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,399
Speaker 1: Backs just they just go there to like five six

971
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: year running backs like Chris Rodriguez.

972
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and uh, who else the journeyman from Temple to

973
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 3: Bandy to Kentucky. Why can't I think of his name?

974
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 3: Back up for Bill's helped me out here?

975
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 2: Oh Ray Davis, Ray Davis, Yeah, old, Yeah, he was an.

976
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 1: Old too, Seth McGowan, he's definitely always over twenty five

977
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: years old. So this is a last round rookie pick,

978
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 1: even like, you don't want to go crazy on a

979
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 1: guy that's that's this old.

980
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 2: He had off the field issues.

981
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 1: Charges were dropped, but he like missed a year of school,

982
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: like things were kind of wild. He actually played with

983
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 1: Mike Washington at one point during their collegiate journeys. But

984
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: he's six foot two twenty three about a one to

985
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 1: ten speed score, So that's really strong. Like, I feel

986
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:46,240
Speaker 1: like if Mike Washington like didn't do anything at the combine,

987
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 1: people would be talking more about Seth McGowan's combine because

988
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 1: it was pretty strong. And if you look at his

989
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 1: his metrics, like seventy seventy second percentile avoided tackles per attempt,

990
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 1: his best season and reception show is eighty fifth percentile,

991
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:04,359
Speaker 1: which you know it's going to skew towards a guy

992
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 1: who's played more frequently in a lot of a lot

993
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 1: of years versus a guy who only played three years

994
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: or something. But still like he showed at least a

995
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 1: season where he had a decent reception share, And one

996
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: of his comps in the ZAP model was David Johnson. Now,

997
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: the other two were pretty weak. I can't remember exactly

998
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 1: who they were, but they were guys that were completely forgettable.

999
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 2: But I do think there's an outcome.

1000
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 1: Here where early in his career, Like it's got to

1001
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,280
Speaker 1: happen quick because of his age, but I could see

1002
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: him being a backup someone getting hurt or something in

1003
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: him being able to carry a workload, him being a

1004
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: three down back and using that athleticism and maybe for

1005
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 1: a year or two being someone that we can semi

1006
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: rely on, you know in dynasty.

1007
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 2: Not not anything crazy.

1008
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 1: I actually was going through this when I was looking

1009
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,399
Speaker 1: at sleepers, I'm like, I don't have nearly as many

1010
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 1: like clear cut, obvious guys that I want to talk

1011
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 1: about this year compared to almost any other year that

1012
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,399
Speaker 1: I've done this. It just feels like I think part

1013
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 1: of it is that draft capital really aligns with what

1014
00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 1: the ZAP model sees this year, so that helps for

1015
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 1: But then also there's just not that many like talented

1016
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 1: running backs and even the wide receivers that are gonna

1017
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 1: go day three, they're not really that juicy and exciting,

1018
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 1: so you know, I try to try to limit this

1019
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,240
Speaker 1: to guys who are being projected to go day three.

1020
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: Uh And and that's why it's just it was just

1021
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 1: a harder exercise than I thought it would be.

1022
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 3: Okay, I took a stab on this guy at twentieth

1023
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 3: in the twentieth round of a draft. It's Brendan Thompson

1024
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:28,399
Speaker 3: from Missippi State.

1025
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think Thompson's an interesting guy.

1026
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 1: Like he is small, which he gets dinged for in

1027
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 1: the model a little bit.

1028
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:36,439
Speaker 2: He's five nine one sixty four.

1029
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 1: But one of his top actually his absolute top comp

1030
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 1: was Tank Dell and uh, you know, he had a

1031
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 1: again Brendan Thompson's production profile not amazing forty second percent

1032
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,720
Speaker 1: tile breakout score. I said in this in this sheet

1033
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 1: that it was mid, which I found on on Twitter

1034
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,280
Speaker 1: today that I shouldn't be saying mid that that people

1035
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: don't take me seriously When I say mid.

1036
00:47:56,200 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 3: Someone that was that was constructive feedback, Yeah to my response.

1037
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: So my response with people don't take me seriously anyway,

1038
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,839
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna keep saying the mid so forty second

1039
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 1: percentile breakout score. He ran a four to two six forty.

1040
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 1: The dude is fast and you can see that on film.

1041
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 1: He he can stretch the field vertically, and it reminds

1042
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 1: me a lot of how Tang Dell kind of came

1043
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 1: on the scene for Houston. Same size, same profile, but

1044
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 1: this this type of size profile definitely does not hit

1045
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:28,360
Speaker 1: frequently at all. Like JJ Nelson could be a comp

1046
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 1: for Brendan Thompson here.

1047
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 2: But the one thing That's.

1048
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 1: Interesting with Dell is that again, like we only saw

1049
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 1: a twelve percent slot rate from Thompson and Dell played

1050
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 1: on the outside, Like so far in his NFL career

1051
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 1: has been playing on the outside. I think Thompson can

1052
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 1: hypothetically like go a little inside out.

1053
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 2: He had a really good slot per run yards prout

1054
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 2: run rate too, so I think that he can play

1055
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 2: in the slot.

1056
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, I just think that he's like an intriguing

1057
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 1: prospect where he does something very specific while also having

1058
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 1: these obvious red flags.

1059
00:48:58,320 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 2: But you can see how.

1060
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: A team might wanted to play that and use him.

1061
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 1: So I'm intrigued even though he's a tiny boy.

1062
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 3: Yeah go look, go look at some highlights though, Man,

1063
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 3: that guy could. I think it was an Arizona State

1064
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 3: night game that I watched and they he went nuts

1065
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 3: in that game. He's so fast, He's so fast, all right, Uh,

1066
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 3: big surprise here. It's like me including sours on some

1067
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,760
Speaker 3: of their papya you got Desmond Reed does read running

1068
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 3: back from Pitt.

1069
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 2: From Hail to Pitt, Yes, Hail to Pit. I'm a

1070
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 2: pit alum.

1071
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 1: We got to throw out a pit guy here. Do

1072
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: I think des Reed is gonna dominate in the NFL. Now,

1073
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 1: probably not he got a Tarik Cohen comp though I

1074
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 1: think he looks a lot like Tarik Cohen really explosive.

1075
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: You know, he had an eighty third percentile explosive run

1076
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 1: rate in college, avoided tackles per attempt sixty ninth percentile.

1077
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 1: But his receiving profile man best season reception share in

1078
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 1: the ninety six percentile, uh best season adjusted yards per

1079
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 1: team past ten ninety six percentile. He is a receiving

1080
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 1: back who can do a lot when there is base

1081
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 1: in front of him.

1082
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 2: And that is like again, I go back to Tari Cohen.

1083
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 1: I think Cohen was in the NFL at the right

1084
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 1: time when teams were deploying their running backs in that

1085
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 1: way a lot more and not afraid to use them

1086
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:13,240
Speaker 1: as pass catchers.

1087
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 2: It's a different kind of game now, but there are some.

1088
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 1: Offenses that could still potentially use a player like this,

1089
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 1: Like I could see des Reed being a third back

1090
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 1: on like Chicago, you know, where they just need that

1091
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:29,799
Speaker 1: like dynamic playmaker to kind of change things up, change

1092
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 1: a pace kind of player where you know DeAndre Swift

1093
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:34,879
Speaker 1: and Kyle man Unguy are getting a lot.

1094
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 2: Of the bulky stuff.

1095
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 1: But I think that a guy like Ben Johnson could

1096
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 1: do a lot with a player like des Reed and

1097
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 1: be creative with him. So I think there could be

1098
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: a spot for him. He might go undrafted, so keep

1099
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 1: that in mind. But I do think he's an interesting

1100
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 1: prospect because a lot of his production metrics look really good.

1101
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: It's just the problem is he's five to six one

1102
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy four pounds, so he's he's a tiny.

1103
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 2: Tiny guy.

1104
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: This is like a duce Von type situation where production

1105
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 1: profile may be there, but more than likely the NFL

1106
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 1: production is.

1107
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 3: Not going to be there. Okay, Next we got Jeff

1108
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 3: Caldwell wide receiver from Cincinnati, and the first bullet you

1109
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 3: have because the other two small small you have not small.

1110
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 1: Yeah. Like I said, I don't think there's a lot

1111
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 1: of like obvious sleepers in this class. I don't love

1112
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 1: Jeff Caldwell, but I do think there's at least a

1113
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 1: trait or arbitrage that we could play here.

1114
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 3: Now.

1115
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 1: I know that people are going to disagree with this strongly.

1116
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 1: This is purely an analytical take. I think you can

1117
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 1: make the argument that this is an arbitrage bryce lance

1118
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:34,319
Speaker 1: kind of play where Lance is like a fringe top

1119
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 1: one hundred pick right now. From a production standpoint, like,

1120
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 1: I think he could go round three pretty easily.

1121
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 2: I don't think Caldwell will.

1122
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: But Caldwell is six' five two sixteen and ran a

1123
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 1: four to three, one so he's a beast from a size.

1124
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 1: Perspective Bryce lance also a. Beast he had weaker production

1125
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:53,800
Speaker 1: when adjusted for strength of schedule because he played at Linden,

1126
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 1: Wood But Bryce lance also played in a smaller program

1127
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 1: and had some of those adjustment problems. Too if you

1128
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 1: scroll down a little, bit you can see the spider

1129
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 1: chart for these, guys which is showing their, height their,

1130
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 1: weight their breakout, score their max adjusted yards per team pass,

1131
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 1: attempt their career yards per out, run their first downs

1132
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 1: per oute, run their deep ball rate like it's it's.

1133
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 2: NOT i, mean they're pretty.

1134
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:21,400
Speaker 1: Similar caldwell looks, better, height, weight like he's a little bit,

1135
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 1: bigger breakout scores a little bit, better the max adjusted

1136
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 1: yards per team pass tempt almost, identical you.

1137
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 2: Know the yards per out run stuff Favors lance a

1138
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 2: little bit.

1139
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 1: More but, overall, LIKE i think that this is the

1140
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 1: archetype at least that we're working with and you're gonna

1141
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,280
Speaker 1: be able to get Called well late in your rookie,

1142
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 1: drafts Whereas, LANCE i don't think that's gonna be the.

1143
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 1: Case and so this could just be a call out

1144
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 1: for a little arbitrage on these like because, Look lance

1145
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 1: is a high variance, pick like a high variance. PLAYER

1146
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: i don't think anyone should debate. That, like it's a

1147
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 1: at the very, least a high variant situation where you're

1148
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 1: looking at this bigger bodied athlete who you, know For

1149
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: lance had had a later career. Breakout For, well the

1150
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 1: breakout doesn't look as good because he played at Linden.

1151
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 1: Wood and so from that, perspective, like both of them

1152
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:10,239
Speaker 1: are volatile prospects at the very, Least and so if

1153
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:12,400
Speaker 1: you're gonna take a chance on a volatile, prospect and

1154
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:15,320
Speaker 1: If Bryce, lance because it's a weaker, class really shoots

1155
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 1: up rookie draft, boards then this could be somewhat of

1156
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:20,840
Speaker 1: an arbitrage play in getting a guy Like.

1157
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 3: Caldwell all, right you have an honorable mention only one

1158
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 3: Though barry And? Brown do you just want to Say

1159
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:28,720
Speaker 3: barry And? Brown?

1160
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 2: Yeah for said the model like doesn't.

1161
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 1: Mind there's a lot OF lsu guys in this, class

1162
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 1: they're LIKE i remember writing the, profiles there's like four of,

1163
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 1: them AND i was, like all these guys are the.

1164
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 1: Same they're like, smaller speedy with weak production. Profiles But

1165
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 1: brown had a little bit better of a production profile

1166
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 1: according to the model compared to the other. Guys SO

1167
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 1: i just want to call him out as an honorable

1168
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 1: mention BECAUSE i DON'T i highly doubt any fantasy show

1169
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 1: has talked About barry And brown like.

1170
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 2: He's just not been like he shouldn't really be on your.

1171
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 1: Radar BUT i want to call him out because, look

1172
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:00,720
Speaker 1: if he, HITS i need to be able to clip

1173
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 1: this and.

1174
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:04,280
Speaker 3: Says on The Late round.

1175
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:08,439
Speaker 1: Show AS i said in the honorable mention, section very,

1176
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,800
Speaker 1: Briefly Barryon brown is a is a great sleeper.

1177
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 3: Guys, yeah a good name, Too Barryon brown with the. Alliteration, Sure,

1178
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:21,080
Speaker 3: okay well there you, Go Baron. Brown you can put

1179
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 3: on your resume mentioned by The Late Round Fantasy Football.

1180
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 3: Show so if even if nothing ever, happens you've got

1181
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:31,919
Speaker 3: this moment right.

1182
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: Here.

1183
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 3: All, RIGHT, jj you see what's in front of you

1184
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 3: is a huge keyr. Code as we say, goodbye THIS

1185
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:45,359
Speaker 3: qr code is for people if they want to play

1186
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:48,839
Speaker 3: On DraftKings For Bestball Early bestball campaign twohundred and fifty

1187
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:53,720
Speaker 3: thousand dollars to the top, prize one million dollars total.

1188
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 3: Prize and, yeah we'll be doing some drafts live drafts

1189
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:02,719
Speaker 3: next week before the ACTUAL Nfl. Draft it's gonna be

1190
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 3: a busy. Week so if if you just want to

1191
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,399
Speaker 3: get the temperature of where things are right, now they've

1192
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 3: got like even a dollar contest that you can enter

1193
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 3: and go slowly over there on. Drafting so use A qr.

1194
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:19,399
Speaker 3: Code use the link in the description if you want

1195
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 3: to do. That, also newsletter had another newsletter just got

1196
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:28,439
Speaker 3: sent out today By Sir Brandon, godola who won The

1197
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,319
Speaker 3: Late Round March madness. CONTEST i was, Fourth no big,

1198
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 3: deal But brandon sent out another. Email he's been he's

1199
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 3: been on a heater with these emails and it's.

1200
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,320
Speaker 2: Free, free, guys it is.

1201
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:41,799
Speaker 1: Free not only is it free and you get good,

1202
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,879
Speaker 1: content but you're helping late round fantasy. Football if you sign,

1203
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 1: up even if you, okay you should open, it but

1204
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 1: then you can delete it, after but open the emails

1205
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 1: that come.

1206
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 2: Here.

1207
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 3: Roy that helps To, yeah we Got patreon we got.

1208
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 3: Members next week should be fun in the discord chat

1209
00:55:56,800 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 3: for our members with THE Nfl draft, happening it's always

1210
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 3: a good, time and we've unfiltered. Commentary we don't spoil

1211
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:08,280
Speaker 3: picks in the late round.

1212
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 2: Discord just so everyone.

1213
00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:13,280
Speaker 3: Knows, yeah, no no spoilers. There and again the Prospect guide.

1214
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 3: Available you will get an update really soon after THE

1215
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 3: uh the draft is. COMPLETE i would venture to, say

1216
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 3: for the amount of words pages players in this, thing

1217
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,879
Speaker 3: it's probably the quickest to be updated and sent. Out

1218
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 3: so if you want to advantage over your league, mates hop

1219
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:38,959
Speaker 3: on over To lateround dot com and purchase THAT. Jj final, Thoughts.

1220
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 2: No, man great, Show great to be.

1221
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:45,799
Speaker 1: Back love seeing familiar faces well names in THE uh

1222
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:48,320
Speaker 1: in the, comments And i'm.

1223
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 2: Really excited for THE Nfl.

1224
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:51,960
Speaker 1: Draft like you, said we'll be working all next week

1225
00:56:52,000 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 1: so that we can get that thing updated and. Out and,

1226
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,240
Speaker 1: look the updates are not just the. Scores the updates

1227
00:56:57,239 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 1: are the blurbs of the relevant, players so you, know

1228
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 1: the guy guys like some of THE lsu wide RECEIVERS

1229
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,600
Speaker 1: i just talked about who go. UNDRAFTED i won't update their,

1230
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 1: blurbs but the big the bigger names the guys that

1231
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 1: are relevant for rookie. Drafts we will be updating all of,

1232
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 1: them both tight, end running all tight, end running, back

1233
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 1: and wide. Receiver and like we said at the, top

1234
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 1: there's that conversion chart that'll be in there, Too so working.

1235
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 1: HARD i can't say it's gonna hit your inbox immediately

1236
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 1: after the, draft but give it a couple of hours

1237
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 1: it'll be. There and if you're drafting On saturday, night.

1238
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 2: You should be able to at least get some help

1239
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 2: from the Late round prospect.

1240
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:34,040
Speaker 3: Guy there are Some sikos out there that draft immediately

1241
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 3: after the.

1242
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 2: Draft, yeah there.

1243
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:39,479
Speaker 3: Are maybe maybe they Are Late round. Subscribers they're trying

1244
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 3: to gain the. System, anyways we appreciate everyone for tuning.

1245
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 3: In we'll see you next time here on The Late

1246
00:57:46,640 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 3: Round Fantasy Football show sponsored By. DraftKings no