WEBVTT - Week 7 NFL Lookahead (Ep 222) 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:03.280 It's time to place your bets. Welcome in, everybody to 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:06.480 Betting Pros. It's me Joey pa Joe Pisapia, and already 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:10.320 it's time to look ahead to Week seven in the NFL. 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:14.520 Week six had some wacky moments, certainly some upsets. Certainly 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:17.319 some people who are not in the good graces with 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:21.079 their respective teams as of this point. But luckily that's 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:23.720 not the case here. I love my team. I've got 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:26.480 Pat Fitzmorris, I've got Matthew Friedman, I've got the crew 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:29.280 to break it all down. Certainly, last week we made 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:31.320 some money on the early look ahead, and hopefully we 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:33.920 could do that again with my boys today. And don't 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:36.280 forget all of our great content going on here over 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:38.919 at Bettingpros dot com, so check that out, check out 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.879 the prop bet cheat sheet, and obviously everything here we 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:44.920 do is sponsored by BETTMGM, the King of sports books. 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:46.920 Everybody knows that maybe I'll put on the crown later, 0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:50.599 we'll see how the show goes. But Pat Fitzmorris, Matthew Friedman, 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.440 let's just jump in head first. Let's go right into 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:56.440 the pool and look ahead at Thursday night football, because goodness, knows. 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.600 We need a better Thursday night football game. It can't 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:02.120 get worse. That's what I told myself last Thursday, and 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:04.080 I don't know if I was right or wrong. New 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:07.679 Orleans Arizona. That's what we have this week. Arizona is 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:10.880 two point favorites at home. The Saints continue to scuffle. 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.760 Both teams are two and four. The number is forty five. 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:16.319 If you like New Orleans on the money line, it's 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:19.800 plus one twelve. So Pat Fitzmorris, Thursday night has not 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:23.840 been great for football. Let's just leave it at that. 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.080 This game right here, is it great for a betting 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:28.880 standpoint when you're looking ahead. 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:30.520 It could be, And it could be great from a 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:34.080 Twitter standpoint, getting to criticize Cliff Kingsbury all night and 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.920 the watch the barbs flying on Twitter. So you know, 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.480 that's the great thing about Thursday night games, Joe, even 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:44.000 if the football is not good, Twitter is a fun 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:47.840 place during a bad Thursday night game. So we could 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:50.920 get that again this week. And I kind of like 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:53.760 the Saints as a dog here. I mean like Arizona 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.120 has just been such an underachiever. The offense is just 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:00.720 it's stuck in the mud. There have been times where 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:04.160 they get into the second half and Kyler is basically 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:06.240 drawing up plays in the dirt and it works. Like 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:08.960 the comeback victory against the Raiders. That's as good as 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:11.280 the offense has looked all year, and it was total 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.320 school yard football, like the scripted stuff early on with 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:18.079 Cliff not working. It'll be interesting to see how the 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.600 return of DeAndre Hopkins this week changes the dynamic. But 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:25.280 they did lose Hollywood Brown to what looks like it's 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:27.080 going to be a multi week foot injury. 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.000 The Saints have been pretty scrappy. 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.720 We still don't know what is going on with them 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.119 at quarterback, whether Jamis Winston is going to be back 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.040 in Week seven, but they've been good offensively with Andy 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.200 Dalton at quarterback the last few weeks, and really they 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:44.639 haven't played a bad game since that Week two toast 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:50.000 stubbing against the Panthers. So I like this plucky Saints 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:54.200 team that's reasonably respectable on both sides of the ball 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:58.680 against a Cardinals team that kind of isn't respectable on 0:02:58.760 --> 0:02:59.720 either side of the ball. 0:02:59.880 --> 0:03:02.440 I just think this game is sort of mispriced. 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:04.720 Yeah, I kind of feel the same way Friedman. I 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:06.760 know there's some moving pieces now in this game. We 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:09.600 mentioned some of the injuries there, the return of DeAndre Hopkins, 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.080 but to me, it's the money lines, the plus one 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:15.320 twelve that really peaks my fancy here because I look 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:17.400 at that and I say there's opportunity. I think the 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.280 Saints are just a better team, a better roster, but 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:23.040 again still unknown a quarterback for them as well as 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:24.280 we head into the short week game. 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:25.320 Yeah. 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:27.840 So I have a couple of pieces on betting pros 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:33.000 that look at how money line underdogs do versus underdogs 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:35.280 against the spread, and historically at leads, like for the 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:38.560 past twenty years or so, if you've liked a team 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.520 an underdog on the spread, it's been a little more 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:43.880 profitable actually just to bet them on the money line. 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:47.240 So yeah, I think the instinct is right there. And 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:49.520 I'm very much on your side here, you know, fits 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:51.720 and I on the same side. So just kiss of death, 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:56.600 just guaranteed we're gonna lose, car Yeah, you know. 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:57.560 We lost. 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:00.840 We lost last Thursday night game, you know with the Bears, 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.320 and you know, but I do like the Saints on 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:07.240 this side here. Cliff Kingsbury is like a zigzag type 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:12.040 of coach where he's been historically very bad in particular situations. 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:14.560 Bad at home, bad is a favorite, and as a 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:17.400 home favorite four and eleven against the spread, like just 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:21.400 you know, just dunk on him anytime he's at home, 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:23.599 and Vegas is like, you know what, this guy should 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:26.919 be favored. So I am very much on the Saints 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:28.480 in the spot, I will say, though the line has 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.479 moved to I believe one and a half, you could 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:33.440 get it two and a half in the look ahead 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:35.640 and when it opened at one and a half, like 0:04:35.720 --> 0:04:36.440 that kind of. 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:37.800 Is where I think it should be. 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.320 But if I'm still going to be betting on Thursday 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.200 night football and lots of people want to do that 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:46.120 because it's fun, I would be betting on the Saints. 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:49.119 That said, I feel like the real winners of Thursday 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:52.200 night Football have been everyone who hates Jeff Bezos, which 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:54.440 it feels like a lot of people. So the idea 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:57.080 of him paying billions of dollars to have Thursday night 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:58.200 football is funny. 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:00.520 And then the people who haven't watched the game shout 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:00.800 out me. 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:03.160 I haven't watched Thursday night Football in the past two Thursdays, 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:04.599 and I felt great about that. 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:05.120 Decision. 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.640 I gotta be honest with you. I watched about like 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.520 a quarter and a half of both and fell asleep, 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.040 and I definitely was better off for the sleep, I 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:14.520 can tell you that much. Yeah, back ahead. 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:17.120 People who work on Thursday nights are the real winners. 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:21.320 They're being productive and not watching these games. Kudos to them. 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:25.040 I will say that the crew that they have their reactions, 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:27.159 you know, if it's Patrick and Sherman, all those guys, 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:29.559 that has been entertaining. So I mean, maybe they should 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:31.240 just do like the Manning Cast where they let these 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:33.960 guys talk in real time and comment about the terrible 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:36.919 football going on. Now that's a broadcast I think everybody 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:38.640 could get into. Give them a couple of years and 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:41.039 see what really happens. Let's get to the next game. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:43.320 Second one. I I lied. 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.279 I have this as a pick them, so I still 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:47.279 think there's there's value at this number here. 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:48.840 All right, Well, try not to lie to me the 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:50.599 rest of the show. All right, Let's go to the 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:54.520 next thing here Cleveland at Baltimore Hall, Baltimore. They are 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.599 letting teams back in every single game here and it 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:00.320 is not going well for the Baltimore Ravens. Not the 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:02.840 bleeding against the Cleveland Browns coming off of a butt 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:06.039 blubbing by the Patriots and their defense. The Cleveland Browns 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.760 are heading into Baltimore at six and a half point underdogs. 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:10.360 Forty six and a half is the number plus two 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:14.000 ten if you like the Cleveland Browns on the money line, Freedman, look, 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:18.680 Baltimore at home should always be a very strong investment. However, 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.680 they have struggled at home this year. They did get 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:23.680 right last game at home, but then they go on 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:25.680 the road to the Giants and lay another egg. So 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:27.880 what do you make of the Baltimore Ravens the six 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:29.839 and a half? Is there any way you feel comfortable 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:30.440 with this number? 0:06:30.960 --> 0:06:32.960 Yeah, I would grab it before it gets to seven 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:35.919 because I think it's going in that direction. And it 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.839 was six earlier, so we are already moving in that way. 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.160 And you know, I'm a man of few beliefs, but 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:44.159 one of the things I do believe in is betting 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:47.760 against Kevin Stefanski in Division. He's two and eleven against 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:51.240 the spread in division, just absolutely horrible against teams who 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:55.520 know him, and zero to four against the spread against 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:58.839 the Ravens. Specifically, I don't have a lot of faith 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:01.280 in what's happening with their their offense. 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:03.840 So yeah, I'm going to be on the Ravens here. 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:06.719 Pat Are you a man of any beliefs when it 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:07.479 comes to this game? 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:11.000 Yeah, I'm totally with Friedman. I was stunned when I 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.280 saw that this was under the key number of seven 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:16.400 and grabbed it immediately, like I have this as Ravens 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.680 seven and a half and the Ravens are one of 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:22.720 the teams as a better that I respect the most 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:26.200 in the NFL, and it's been really weird to see 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:28.520 them lose some of these games the way they have 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.400 and I'm licking my wounds after betting on them this 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:35.920 past week against the Giants. But like at home, their 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:38.760 home field advantage means more than some other home field 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:43.040 advantages in the NFL, without question, But like they're going 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:47.000 against a Cleveland Browns defense that's just completely broken. The 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:49.760 Browns gave up four hundred and forty rushing yards in 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:55.040 Week four and Week five combined. Then yesterday they sort 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:58.800 of get their running game run defense fixed. They did 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:02.400 give up three touchdown, but they generally held their own 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.480 against Romandre Stevenson and the Patriots. But they let Bailey 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:08.320 Zappi throw for over three hundred yards an average. 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.760 Over Nili Zappi disparaged on this program. 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.440 Yeah, I mean a third stringer, and he averaged nine 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:16.720 point one yards per pass attempt against the Browns who 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:20.040 had just gotten Greedy Williams back at cornerback. So apparently 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.960 Greedy did not fix anything in the secondary. 0:08:24.000 --> 0:08:26.120 This Browns defense is just terrible. 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.160 You know, the Ravens can hurt you in a lot 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:31.040 of different ways offensively, and I think they're going to 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:34.199 hurt the Browns badly in Baltimore next Sunday. 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:36.720 Big time. Bailey Zappi will talk about him a little 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:40.960 later in the show Monday Night Football, Let's Go Tampa Carolina. 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:44.000 Carolina did not circle the wagons. I was hoping they 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:45.920 would against the Rams. It was close there for a 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:47.600 little while, though. I know there's a lot of panic. 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:50.120 I could feel, could feel the tension in that building 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.040 in the first quarter, especially after that that interception for 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:55.480 the touchdown. Oh boy, that really felt like things were 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:59.240 starting to turn. But fortunately Carolina kind of unraveled here. 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:02.600 And speaking of unraveling, Tampa Bay Bucks did not take 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:05.120 care of business. All those injuries. Mika Fitzpatrick gout all 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:07.800 those things. They go out there to Pittsburgh and they 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.240 can't get it done. But despite all that on the road, 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:12.400 they're still ten point favorites in this game in week seven, 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:16.440 forty one is the number. Look pat when you're looking 0:09:16.440 --> 0:09:18.240 here at Tampa. This is another team at three and 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:20.600 three that I think has really earned this five hundred record. 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:23.560 This feels like a smash. It's a double digit game. 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:25.559 Are we going to get the smash that we think? 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:30.240 I'm probably just laying off this one. Ten points feels 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.080 about right. Don't know what to make of the Panthers. 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:35.920 Maybe we get a Sam Darnold start next week, Like 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:39.199 Sam is due back pretty soon. I don't know what 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:41.640 that would do to this number, but it would certainly 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:49.240 make for some interesting subplots. Yeah, Tampa has been maybe 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:53.080 not quite as disappointing as the Packers, but they've sprung 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.760 a few leaks themselves, so I don't feel great betting 0:09:55.840 --> 0:10:00.520 them as a double digits road favorites. But I can't 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:02.880 bet the Panthers either, so I'm probably just gonna walk 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:03.839 away from this game. 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:07.720 Panthers fans feel like the kid who gets the crappy 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.280 toy every time they go to McDonald's and the Happy Meal. 0:10:10.320 --> 0:10:12.200 No matter what happens, they just look in that box. 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:15.240 And like Sam Darnald, Baker, Mayfield, p J. Walker, doesn't 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:18.320 matter where everything's just going bad. Matthew Friedman, what do 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:20.240 you look at in the box when you look at 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:20.680 this game? 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:23.600 I feel if you're going to take a side, it's 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.840 Panthers or nothing. I feel like maybe only two teams, 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.800 maybe three teams in the NFL should have the luxury 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:33.480 of being double digit favorites, you know, like the Bills, 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:37.480 the Chiefs, maybe the Eagles, but definitely not the Bucks, 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:39.480 even if they're going against the worst team in the league. 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:41.880 But I do think the Panthers are the worst team 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.400 in the league. There's still divisional opponents, so you know 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:48.120 that adds a layer here, and ten points is just 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:48.600 so much. 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:50.719 The thing is, we don't even know who the. 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:52.920 Quarterback is going to be for the Panthers, and I 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.560 don't know if that even impacts the line at all 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.320 with how bad all of these guys have played. 0:10:58.360 --> 0:10:59.839 But I have this at eight and a half. 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.080 So that said, like I really don't want to bet 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:04.920 on the Panthers, So like I'm not gonna take it. 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:07.640 I did bet the under under forty one. I think 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:12.160 that's where there's value here because the Buccaneers they are 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.559 not fully functional even close to it on offense. They 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:18.640 do have a very good defense. And again for Panthers, 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:20.240 we don't know who their quarterback is going to be, 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:22.320 but whoever it is, he's not gonna be helping them 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:25.160 score a lot of points. So forty one feels like 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.480 a pretty high number for two teams that are really 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:30.160 underpeak capacity right now. 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:32.560 Yeah, I think that's a really good piece of advice 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:34.480 right now, so look at the under. Another good piece 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.720 of advice here is to go have some more fun 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:38.839 over at Sleeper because they've got that over under game 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:40.720 that's going on right now, and you can invite your 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.320 friends and play against them. And chances are you're playing 0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:45.360 some leagues on sleep already, So if you haven't already, 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:48.320 check out the over under game right now. You can 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:50.560 choose two or more players from any sport you like, 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:53.079 and you can go like rushing yards in a football game. 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:54.839 You can go points in a basketball game. You can 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:57.160 do baseball stuff too. There's all kinds of things you 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:58.959 can do. Then you choose the amount of money you 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:01.120 want to enter the contest, and if you pick correctly, 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.120 you can win anywhere from two to twenty times your money. 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:06.360 And it's fun because you can go get involved with 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:08.280 your friends and send them contests and go ahead and 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.440 build all that together. But you can only do it 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:13.880 over at Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. Again, that's 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:17.040 Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros and use that promo 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.480 code Betting Pros when you sign up, because when you do, 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:23.000 you'll get the instant deposit match up to one hundred dollars. Again, 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:25.959 you can download the Sleeper app. It's everywhere. It's easy 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.440 to get and go to Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:30.440 Use a promo code Betting Pros when you sign up 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.320 today and go play some over under have some fun. 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:33.960 Let's see if we can have some fun with this 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.559 next game on the slate here, because it's the Atlanta Falcons, 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.160 the David to the Goliath out there. Some of these 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.920 teams of the NFL, who'd have thought the Atlanta Falcons 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:46.960 they are still six point hundred dogs. Ooh. Going into Cincinnati, 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:50.199 Cincinnati is starting to write the ship a little bit. 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.280 It feels like in recent weeks, after a really rough 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.320 start to the season, they are six point favorites at home. 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:58.640 The numbers forty five and a half. If you like 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:00.760 the Falcons to upset, it's US two twenty on the 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.640 money line. Now, Matthew Friedman, when you're looking at this one, 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:05.760 does this feel like maybe this is actually not a 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.840 big enough number considering how the Bengals have started to 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:11.240 turn things around, or do you think the Falcons have 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:13.079 earned the respect here of the six. 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:19.200 I'm actually impressed with the Falcons, and there is still 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.520 a six and a half out there at FanDuel. I'm 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.120 a little bit angry at myself because you know, Fitz 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:28.600 and I we project these games before before Sunday, and 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:32.000 so we already have our preliminary projections, and you know, 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:33.680 we can compare them to the look ahead line, and 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.160 the look ahead on this was seven, and I had 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:38.720 this at five point seven five, and like, you know, 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.920 one point two five points difference. That's not a massive difference, 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:45.040 but when the number is on seven, that's pretty significant. 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:46.520 And I wish I would have just bet it then, 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:48.680 because I still have it at five point seven to five. 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:51.679 You know, the early line was six and a half. 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.480 Now it's six at most books. I should have just 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:57.640 bet it earlier. But given that it's at six now 0:13:57.880 --> 0:13:59.679 and I have it at five point seven five, I 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:01.200 really don't see any value. 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:03.400 Pat how about you d see any value or you 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:04.400 kind of where Friedman is? 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:06.760 No, I'm kind of where Friedman is. And Friedman mentioned 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:11.480 that we do the early projections like before the previous week's. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:12.720 Games are played, and. 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:15.679 This week I had a few games where I was 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:18.480 pretty much right with where the numbers wound up being, 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.400 and that was one of the cases here. I had 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:24.200 the Bengals as a six and a half point favorite 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.000 and a forty five point total, So I'm with Friedman 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:29.920 like if I had seen it, I didn't even notice 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.520 that seven point number. Like if I could have gotten 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:33.960 it on that key number, I would have loved the 0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:34.640 Falcons here. 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.080 But at six and a half, it just feels right. 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.040 The Bengals, I think their fans would tell you, they 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:42.840 have played down to the level of their opponents a 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.040 little bit this season, so it worries me to have 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:49.280 them covering kind of a large number against a team 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.840 that's been as plucky as the Falcons have been this season. 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:55.760 I'm definitely not taking Cincinnati. If you pressed me on 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.120 this one, I'd play Atlanta, But I'm probably not going 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.040 to bet this. It stays at six and n and 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:03.840 a half or goes to six. As Friedman mentioned, it has. 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.200 Cooper Rush has taken the Dallas Cowboys about as far 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:07.960 as he could probably and it was a heck of 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.240 an effort, but they came up short against the Eagles. 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.520 It looks like Dak Prescott is targeting a return this week. 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:16.600 In Week seven, the Cowboys stand at four and two. 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.240 They are at home seven point favorites against the Lions, 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:21.800 were coming off a bye, looking their wounds were getting 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.760 shut out. They should be getting healthy two. I'man Ross 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.600 and Brown another healthy week ahead of him, hopefully DeAndre 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.920 Swift as well. So this number is forty seven and 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:32.640 a half. It's plus two forty on the money line 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:36.320 if you like the Lions. But Pat, I imagine this 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:40.000 is a good opportunity here for Dak Prescott against a 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:42.160 pretty weak defense, to go ahead and put some numbers 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.000 on the board. Is that forty seven and a half 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.280 an over in your opinion? And should you bet it now? 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:46.840 No? 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.080 I actually like the under here, Joe, and I like 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.800 that more than either side of this game. I just 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.760 think Dak maybe having a little bit of rost, and 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:59.320 maybe the Lions fix some things on defense during their 0:15:59.320 --> 0:15:59.800 bye week. 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:00.880 I don't know about that. 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:05.480 But and then you know, this Detroit offense going up 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:09.160 against Dallas. The Dallas defense has been so impressive this season, 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.480 you know, Like I know, the Eagles move the ball 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.400 fairly effectively for much of the Sunday night game this 0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:19.120 past week, but they were not exactly going up and 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:21.360 down the field on Dallas, like this is one of 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:25.360 the better we all for sure. So I think it's 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:30.240 gonna I'm I'm not liking the over here very much 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:32.480 at all, and I'm inclined to go the other. 0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:32.880 Way on it. 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:35.680 All right, how about you, Freedman, you're looking at this, 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:38.320 do you think it is all doom and gloom and 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:40.640 low scoring here is Pat's kind of alluding to. Or 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.040 do you think maybe the defense creates some turnovers and 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:44.920 Detroit doesn't have to do all that much to help 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:45.480 this over go. 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:49.880 I'm on Detroit in this spot, and so that you know, 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:52.520 leans a little bit more towards the under you know, 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:55.080 because I could see a game where Dak Prescott does 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:57.520 return but is a little bit rusty. I'm expecting him 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:00.360 to return this week, and that was already baked into, believe, 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:02.560 baked into the line ahead of time and the look 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:05.679 ahead this was minus seven, and I thought, okay, like 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:07.680 that means Dak is coming back, And. 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:09.280 The early line released was seven. 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:12.359 It hasn't moved at all, even though there's enthusiasm that 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.320 Dak is coming back. So I think that was all 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.000 very much baked into the line here, and that feels 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:22.560 pretty aggressive for a quarterback who has a thumb injury. 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:28.720 His offensive line still isn't all that great. The offense. 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.720 I know like they've been playing in such a way 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:34.280 to kind of shield Cooper rush, but I still don't 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:37.480 know if that offense is going to be as functional 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:41.240 as people think it might be when Dak returns. So 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:44.600 seven feels like a lot to me. I have this 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.320 at five and a half. And maybe I'm too low 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.679 on the Cowboys. Like the thing is, I still have 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:52.640 them power rated as the number four team right now, 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:54.560 so I feel like I'm giving them quite a bit 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:55.160 of respect. 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:57.199 But I don't know. 0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:00.639 Maybe I'm overwaiting to buy. But Detroit coming off of 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:02.879 the buy. I think they should be very close to 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.600 fully healthy with a mon Ross Saint Brown coming back, 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:08.040 DeAndre Swift coming back. They've had two weeks to plan 0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:08.800 for this game. 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.919 I don't know. I think Detroit is undervalued in this spot. 0:18:13.400 --> 0:18:15.040 All right, let's see if we can find any value 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:18.600 with the New York Football Giants, who are five and one. No, 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:21.600