Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Welcome in, everybody to
Speaker 1: Betting Pros. It's me Joey pa Joe Pisapia, and already
Speaker 1: it's time to look ahead to Week seven in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Week six had some wacky moments, certainly some upsets. Certainly
Speaker 1: some people who are not in the good graces with
Speaker 1: their respective teams as of this point. But luckily that's
Speaker 1: not the case here. I love my team. I've got
Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris, I've got Matthew Friedman, I've got the crew
Speaker 1: to break it all down. Certainly, last week we made
Speaker 1: some money on the early look ahead, and hopefully we
Speaker 1: could do that again with my boys today. And don't
Speaker 1: forget all of our great content going on here over
Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com, so check that out, check out
Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat sheet, and obviously everything here we
Speaker 1: do is sponsored by BETTMGM, the King of sports books.
Speaker 1: Everybody knows that maybe I'll put on the crown later,
Speaker 1: we'll see how the show goes. But Pat Fitzmorris, Matthew Friedman,
Speaker 1: let's just jump in head first. Let's go right into
Speaker 1: the pool and look ahead at Thursday night football, because goodness, knows.
Speaker 1: We need a better Thursday night football game. It can't
Speaker 1: get worse. That's what I told myself last Thursday, and
Speaker 1: I don't know if I was right or wrong. New
Speaker 1: Orleans Arizona. That's what we have this week. Arizona is
Speaker 1: two point favorites at home. The Saints continue to scuffle.
Speaker 1: Both teams are two and four. The number is forty five.
Speaker 1: If you like New Orleans on the money line, it's
Speaker 1: plus one twelve. So Pat Fitzmorris, Thursday night has not
Speaker 1: been great for football. Let's just leave it at that.
Speaker 1: This game right here, is it great for a betting
Speaker 1: standpoint when you're looking ahead.
Speaker 2: It could be, And it could be great from a
Speaker 2: Twitter standpoint, getting to criticize Cliff Kingsbury all night and
Speaker 2: the watch the barbs flying on Twitter. So you know,
Speaker 2: that's the great thing about Thursday night games, Joe, even
Speaker 2: if the football is not good, Twitter is a fun
Speaker 2: place during a bad Thursday night game. So we could
Speaker 2: get that again this week. And I kind of like
Speaker 2: the Saints as a dog here. I mean like Arizona
Speaker 2: has just been such an underachiever. The offense is just
Speaker 2: it's stuck in the mud. There have been times where
Speaker 2: they get into the second half and Kyler is basically
Speaker 2: drawing up plays in the dirt and it works. Like
Speaker 2: the comeback victory against the Raiders. That's as good as
Speaker 2: the offense has looked all year, and it was total
Speaker 2: school yard football, like the scripted stuff early on with
Speaker 2: Cliff not working. It'll be interesting to see how the
Speaker 2: return of DeAndre Hopkins this week changes the dynamic. But
Speaker 2: they did lose Hollywood Brown to what looks like it's
Speaker 2: going to be a multi week foot injury.
Speaker 3: The Saints have been pretty scrappy.
Speaker 2: We still don't know what is going on with them
Speaker 2: at quarterback, whether Jamis Winston is going to be back
Speaker 2: in Week seven, but they've been good offensively with Andy
Speaker 2: Dalton at quarterback the last few weeks, and really they
Speaker 2: haven't played a bad game since that Week two toast
Speaker 2: stubbing against the Panthers. So I like this plucky Saints
Speaker 2: team that's reasonably respectable on both sides of the ball
Speaker 2: against a Cardinals team that kind of isn't respectable on
Speaker 2: either side of the ball.
Speaker 3: I just think this game is sort of mispriced.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of feel the same way Friedman. I
Speaker 1: know there's some moving pieces now in this game. We
Speaker 1: mentioned some of the injuries there, the return of DeAndre Hopkins,
Speaker 1: but to me, it's the money lines, the plus one
Speaker 1: twelve that really peaks my fancy here because I look
Speaker 1: at that and I say there's opportunity. I think the
Speaker 1: Saints are just a better team, a better roster, but
Speaker 1: again still unknown a quarterback for them as well as
Speaker 1: we head into the short week game.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: So I have a couple of pieces on betting pros
Speaker 5: that look at how money line underdogs do versus underdogs
Speaker 5: against the spread, and historically at leads, like for the
Speaker 5: past twenty years or so, if you've liked a team
Speaker 5: an underdog on the spread, it's been a little more
Speaker 5: profitable actually just to bet them on the money line.
Speaker 5: So yeah, I think the instinct is right there. And
Speaker 5: I'm very much on your side here, you know, fits
Speaker 5: and I on the same side. So just kiss of death,
Speaker 5: just guaranteed we're gonna lose, car Yeah, you know.
Speaker 4: We lost.
Speaker 5: We lost last Thursday night game, you know with the Bears,
Speaker 5: and you know, but I do like the Saints on
Speaker 5: this side here. Cliff Kingsbury is like a zigzag type
Speaker 5: of coach where he's been historically very bad in particular situations.
Speaker 5: Bad at home, bad is a favorite, and as a
Speaker 5: home favorite four and eleven against the spread, like just
Speaker 5: you know, just dunk on him anytime he's at home,
Speaker 5: and Vegas is like, you know what, this guy should
Speaker 5: be favored. So I am very much on the Saints
Speaker 5: in the spot, I will say, though the line has
Speaker 5: moved to I believe one and a half, you could
Speaker 5: get it two and a half in the look ahead
Speaker 5: and when it opened at one and a half, like
Speaker 5: that kind of.
Speaker 4: Is where I think it should be.
Speaker 5: But if I'm still going to be betting on Thursday
Speaker 5: night football and lots of people want to do that
Speaker 5: because it's fun, I would be betting on the Saints.
Speaker 5: That said, I feel like the real winners of Thursday
Speaker 5: night Football have been everyone who hates Jeff Bezos, which
Speaker 5: it feels like a lot of people. So the idea
Speaker 5: of him paying billions of dollars to have Thursday night
Speaker 5: football is funny.
Speaker 4: And then the people who haven't watched the game shout
Speaker 4: out me.
Speaker 5: I haven't watched Thursday night Football in the past two Thursdays,
Speaker 5: and I felt great about that.
Speaker 4: Decision.
Speaker 1: I gotta be honest with you. I watched about like
Speaker 1: a quarter and a half of both and fell asleep,
Speaker 1: and I definitely was better off for the sleep, I
Speaker 1: can tell you that much. Yeah, back ahead.
Speaker 2: People who work on Thursday nights are the real winners.
Speaker 2: They're being productive and not watching these games. Kudos to them.
Speaker 1: I will say that the crew that they have their reactions,
Speaker 1: you know, if it's Patrick and Sherman, all those guys,
Speaker 1: that has been entertaining. So I mean, maybe they should
Speaker 1: just do like the Manning Cast where they let these
Speaker 1: guys talk in real time and comment about the terrible
Speaker 1: football going on. Now that's a broadcast I think everybody
Speaker 1: could get into. Give them a couple of years and
Speaker 1: see what really happens. Let's get to the next game.
Speaker 4: Second one. I I lied.
Speaker 5: I have this as a pick them, so I still
Speaker 5: think there's there's value at this number here.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, try not to lie to me the
Speaker 1: rest of the show. All right, Let's go to the
Speaker 1: next thing here Cleveland at Baltimore Hall, Baltimore. They are
Speaker 1: letting teams back in every single game here and it
Speaker 1: is not going well for the Baltimore Ravens. Not the
Speaker 1: bleeding against the Cleveland Browns coming off of a butt
Speaker 1: blubbing by the Patriots and their defense. The Cleveland Browns
Speaker 1: are heading into Baltimore at six and a half point underdogs.
Speaker 1: Forty six and a half is the number plus two
Speaker 1: ten if you like the Cleveland Browns on the money line, Freedman, look,
Speaker 1: Baltimore at home should always be a very strong investment. However,
Speaker 1: they have struggled at home this year. They did get
Speaker 1: right last game at home, but then they go on
Speaker 1: the road to the Giants and lay another egg. So
Speaker 1: what do you make of the Baltimore Ravens the six
Speaker 1: and a half? Is there any way you feel comfortable
Speaker 1: with this number?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would grab it before it gets to seven
Speaker 5: because I think it's going in that direction. And it
Speaker 5: was six earlier, so we are already moving in that way.
Speaker 5: And you know, I'm a man of few beliefs, but
Speaker 5: one of the things I do believe in is betting
Speaker 5: against Kevin Stefanski in Division. He's two and eleven against
Speaker 5: the spread in division, just absolutely horrible against teams who
Speaker 5: know him, and zero to four against the spread against
Speaker 5: the Ravens. Specifically, I don't have a lot of faith
Speaker 5: in what's happening with their their offense.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm going to be on the Ravens here.
Speaker 1: Pat Are you a man of any beliefs when it
Speaker 1: comes to this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm totally with Friedman. I was stunned when I
Speaker 2: saw that this was under the key number of seven
Speaker 2: and grabbed it immediately, like I have this as Ravens
Speaker 2: seven and a half and the Ravens are one of
Speaker 2: the teams as a better that I respect the most
Speaker 2: in the NFL, and it's been really weird to see
Speaker 2: them lose some of these games the way they have
Speaker 2: and I'm licking my wounds after betting on them this
Speaker 2: past week against the Giants. But like at home, their
Speaker 2: home field advantage means more than some other home field
Speaker 2: advantages in the NFL, without question, But like they're going
Speaker 2: against a Cleveland Browns defense that's just completely broken. The
Speaker 2: Browns gave up four hundred and forty rushing yards in
Speaker 2: Week four and Week five combined. Then yesterday they sort
Speaker 2: of get their running game run defense fixed. They did
Speaker 2: give up three touchdown, but they generally held their own
Speaker 2: against Romandre Stevenson and the Patriots. But they let Bailey
Speaker 2: Zappi throw for over three hundred yards an average.
Speaker 1: Over Nili Zappi disparaged on this program.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean a third stringer, and he averaged nine
Speaker 2: point one yards per pass attempt against the Browns who
Speaker 2: had just gotten Greedy Williams back at cornerback. So apparently
Speaker 2: Greedy did not fix anything in the secondary.
Speaker 3: This Browns defense is just terrible.
Speaker 2: You know, the Ravens can hurt you in a lot
Speaker 2: of different ways offensively, and I think they're going to
Speaker 2: hurt the Browns badly in Baltimore next Sunday.
Speaker 1: Big time. Bailey Zappi will talk about him a little
Speaker 1: later in the show Monday Night Football, Let's Go Tampa Carolina.
Speaker 1: Carolina did not circle the wagons. I was hoping they
Speaker 1: would against the Rams. It was close there for a
Speaker 1: little while, though. I know there's a lot of panic.
Speaker 1: I could feel, could feel the tension in that building
Speaker 1: in the first quarter, especially after that that interception for
Speaker 1: the touchdown. Oh boy, that really felt like things were
Speaker 1: starting to turn. But fortunately Carolina kind of unraveled here.
Speaker 1: And speaking of unraveling, Tampa Bay Bucks did not take
Speaker 1: care of business. All those injuries. Mika Fitzpatrick gout all
Speaker 1: those things. They go out there to Pittsburgh and they
Speaker 1: can't get it done. But despite all that on the road,
Speaker 1: they're still ten point favorites in this game in week seven,
Speaker 1: forty one is the number. Look pat when you're looking
Speaker 1: here at Tampa. This is another team at three and
Speaker 1: three that I think has really earned this five hundred record.
Speaker 1: This feels like a smash. It's a double digit game.
Speaker 1: Are we going to get the smash that we think?
Speaker 2: I'm probably just laying off this one. Ten points feels
Speaker 2: about right. Don't know what to make of the Panthers.
Speaker 2: Maybe we get a Sam Darnold start next week, Like
Speaker 2: Sam is due back pretty soon. I don't know what
Speaker 2: that would do to this number, but it would certainly
Speaker 2: make for some interesting subplots. Yeah, Tampa has been maybe
Speaker 2: not quite as disappointing as the Packers, but they've sprung
Speaker 2: a few leaks themselves, so I don't feel great betting
Speaker 2: them as a double digits road favorites. But I can't
Speaker 2: bet the Panthers either, so I'm probably just gonna walk
Speaker 2: away from this game.
Speaker 1: Panthers fans feel like the kid who gets the crappy
Speaker 1: toy every time they go to McDonald's and the Happy Meal.
Speaker 1: No matter what happens, they just look in that box.
Speaker 1: And like Sam Darnald, Baker, Mayfield, p J. Walker, doesn't
Speaker 1: matter where everything's just going bad. Matthew Friedman, what do
Speaker 1: you look at in the box when you look at
Speaker 1: this game?
Speaker 5: I feel if you're going to take a side, it's
Speaker 5: Panthers or nothing. I feel like maybe only two teams,
Speaker 5: maybe three teams in the NFL should have the luxury
Speaker 5: of being double digit favorites, you know, like the Bills,
Speaker 5: the Chiefs, maybe the Eagles, but definitely not the Bucks,
Speaker 5: even if they're going against the worst team in the league.
Speaker 5: But I do think the Panthers are the worst team
Speaker 5: in the league. There's still divisional opponents, so you know
Speaker 5: that adds a layer here, and ten points is just
Speaker 5: so much.
Speaker 4: The thing is, we don't even know who the.
Speaker 5: Quarterback is going to be for the Panthers, and I
Speaker 5: don't know if that even impacts the line at all
Speaker 5: with how bad all of these guys have played.
Speaker 4: But I have this at eight and a half.
Speaker 5: So that said, like I really don't want to bet
Speaker 5: on the Panthers, So like I'm not gonna take it.
Speaker 5: I did bet the under under forty one. I think
Speaker 5: that's where there's value here because the Buccaneers they are
Speaker 5: not fully functional even close to it on offense. They
Speaker 5: do have a very good defense. And again for Panthers,
Speaker 5: we don't know who their quarterback is going to be,
Speaker 5: but whoever it is, he's not gonna be helping them
Speaker 5: score a lot of points. So forty one feels like
Speaker 5: a pretty high number for two teams that are really
Speaker 5: underpeak capacity right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a really good piece of advice
Speaker 1: right now, so look at the under. Another good piece
Speaker 1: of advice here is to go have some more fun
Speaker 1: over at Sleeper because they've got that over under game
Speaker 1: that's going on right now, and you can invite your
Speaker 1: friends and play against them. And chances are you're playing
Speaker 1: some leagues on sleep already, So if you haven't already,
Speaker 1: check out the over under game right now. You can
Speaker 1: choose two or more players from any sport you like,
Speaker 1: and you can go like rushing yards in a football game.
Speaker 1: You can go points in a basketball game. You can
Speaker 1: do baseball stuff too. There's all kinds of things you
Speaker 1: can do. Then you choose the amount of money you
Speaker 1: want to enter the contest, and if you pick correctly,
Speaker 1: you can win anywhere from two to twenty times your money.
Speaker 1: And it's fun because you can go get involved with
Speaker 1: your friends and send them contests and go ahead and
Speaker 1: build all that together. But you can only do it
Speaker 1: over at Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. Again, that's
Speaker 1: Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros and use that promo
Speaker 1: code Betting Pros when you sign up, because when you do,
Speaker 1: you'll get the instant deposit match up to one hundred dollars. Again,
Speaker 1: you can download the Sleeper app. It's everywhere. It's easy
Speaker 1: to get and go to Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Use a promo code Betting Pros when you sign up
Speaker 1: today and go play some over under have some fun.
Speaker 1: Let's see if we can have some fun with this
Speaker 1: next game on the slate here, because it's the Atlanta Falcons,
Speaker 1: the David to the Goliath out there. Some of these
Speaker 1: teams of the NFL, who'd have thought the Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 1: they are still six point hundred dogs. Ooh. Going into Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: Cincinnati is starting to write the ship a little bit.
Speaker 1: It feels like in recent weeks, after a really rough
Speaker 1: start to the season, they are six point favorites at home.
Speaker 1: The numbers forty five and a half. If you like
Speaker 1: the Falcons to upset, it's US two twenty on the
Speaker 1: money line. Now, Matthew Friedman, when you're looking at this one,
Speaker 1: does this feel like maybe this is actually not a
Speaker 1: big enough number considering how the Bengals have started to
Speaker 1: turn things around, or do you think the Falcons have
Speaker 1: earned the respect here of the six.
Speaker 5: I'm actually impressed with the Falcons, and there is still
Speaker 5: a six and a half out there at FanDuel. I'm
Speaker 5: a little bit angry at myself because you know, Fitz
Speaker 5: and I we project these games before before Sunday, and
Speaker 5: so we already have our preliminary projections, and you know,
Speaker 5: we can compare them to the look ahead line, and
Speaker 5: the look ahead on this was seven, and I had
Speaker 5: this at five point seven five, and like, you know,
Speaker 5: one point two five points difference. That's not a massive difference,
Speaker 5: but when the number is on seven, that's pretty significant.
Speaker 5: And I wish I would have just bet it then,
Speaker 5: because I still have it at five point seven to five.
Speaker 5: You know, the early line was six and a half.
Speaker 5: Now it's six at most books. I should have just
Speaker 5: bet it earlier. But given that it's at six now
Speaker 5: and I have it at five point seven five, I
Speaker 5: really don't see any value.
Speaker 1: Pat how about you d see any value or you
Speaker 1: kind of where Friedman is?
Speaker 2: No, I'm kind of where Friedman is. And Friedman mentioned
Speaker 2: that we do the early projections like before the previous week's.
Speaker 3: Games are played, and.
Speaker 2: This week I had a few games where I was
Speaker 2: pretty much right with where the numbers wound up being,
Speaker 2: and that was one of the cases here. I had
Speaker 2: the Bengals as a six and a half point favorite
Speaker 2: and a forty five point total, So I'm with Friedman
Speaker 2: like if I had seen it, I didn't even notice
Speaker 2: that seven point number. Like if I could have gotten
Speaker 2: it on that key number, I would have loved the
Speaker 2: Falcons here.
Speaker 3: But at six and a half, it just feels right.
Speaker 2: The Bengals, I think their fans would tell you, they
Speaker 2: have played down to the level of their opponents a
Speaker 2: little bit this season, so it worries me to have
Speaker 2: them covering kind of a large number against a team
Speaker 2: that's been as plucky as the Falcons have been this season.
Speaker 2: I'm definitely not taking Cincinnati. If you pressed me on
Speaker 2: this one, I'd play Atlanta, But I'm probably not going
Speaker 2: to bet this. It stays at six and n and
Speaker 2: a half or goes to six. As Friedman mentioned, it has.
Speaker 1: Cooper Rush has taken the Dallas Cowboys about as far
Speaker 1: as he could probably and it was a heck of
Speaker 1: an effort, but they came up short against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: It looks like Dak Prescott is targeting a return this week.
Speaker 1: In Week seven, the Cowboys stand at four and two.
Speaker 1: They are at home seven point favorites against the Lions,
Speaker 1: were coming off a bye, looking their wounds were getting
Speaker 1: shut out. They should be getting healthy two. I'man Ross
Speaker 1: and Brown another healthy week ahead of him, hopefully DeAndre
Speaker 1: Swift as well. So this number is forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half. It's plus two forty on the money line
Speaker 1: if you like the Lions. But Pat, I imagine this
Speaker 1: is a good opportunity here for Dak Prescott against a
Speaker 1: pretty weak defense, to go ahead and put some numbers
Speaker 1: on the board. Is that forty seven and a half
Speaker 1: an over in your opinion? And should you bet it now?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: I actually like the under here, Joe, and I like
Speaker 2: that more than either side of this game. I just
Speaker 2: think Dak maybe having a little bit of rost, and
Speaker 2: maybe the Lions fix some things on defense during their
Speaker 2: bye week.
Speaker 3: I don't know about that.
Speaker 2: But and then you know, this Detroit offense going up
Speaker 2: against Dallas. The Dallas defense has been so impressive this season,
Speaker 2: you know, Like I know, the Eagles move the ball
Speaker 2: fairly effectively for much of the Sunday night game this
Speaker 2: past week, but they were not exactly going up and
Speaker 2: down the field on Dallas, like this is one of
Speaker 2: the better we all for sure. So I think it's
Speaker 2: gonna I'm I'm not liking the over here very much
Speaker 2: at all, and I'm inclined to go the other.
Speaker 3: Way on it.
Speaker 1: All right, how about you, Freedman, you're looking at this,
Speaker 1: do you think it is all doom and gloom and
Speaker 1: low scoring here is Pat's kind of alluding to. Or
Speaker 1: do you think maybe the defense creates some turnovers and
Speaker 1: Detroit doesn't have to do all that much to help
Speaker 1: this over go.
Speaker 5: I'm on Detroit in this spot, and so that you know,
Speaker 5: leans a little bit more towards the under you know,
Speaker 5: because I could see a game where Dak Prescott does
Speaker 5: return but is a little bit rusty. I'm expecting him
Speaker 5: to return this week, and that was already baked into, believe,
Speaker 5: baked into the line ahead of time and the look
Speaker 5: ahead this was minus seven, and I thought, okay, like
Speaker 5: that means Dak is coming back, And.
Speaker 4: The early line released was seven.
Speaker 5: It hasn't moved at all, even though there's enthusiasm that
Speaker 5: Dak is coming back. So I think that was all
Speaker 5: very much baked into the line here, and that feels
Speaker 5: pretty aggressive for a quarterback who has a thumb injury.
Speaker 5: His offensive line still isn't all that great. The offense.
Speaker 5: I know like they've been playing in such a way
Speaker 5: to kind of shield Cooper rush, but I still don't
Speaker 5: know if that offense is going to be as functional
Speaker 5: as people think it might be when Dak returns. So
Speaker 5: seven feels like a lot to me. I have this
Speaker 5: at five and a half. And maybe I'm too low
Speaker 5: on the Cowboys. Like the thing is, I still have
Speaker 5: them power rated as the number four team right now,
Speaker 5: so I feel like I'm giving them quite a bit
Speaker 5: of respect.
Speaker 4: But I don't know.
Speaker 5: Maybe I'm overwaiting to buy. But Detroit coming off of
Speaker 5: the buy. I think they should be very close to
Speaker 5: fully healthy with a mon Ross Saint Brown coming back,
Speaker 5: DeAndre Swift coming back. They've had two weeks to plan
Speaker 5: for this game.
Speaker 4: I don't know. I think Detroit is undervalued in this spot.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see if we can find any value
Speaker 1: with the New York Football Giants, who are five and one. No,
Speaker 1: you heard me right, five and one New York Football
Speaker 1: Giants against the Jacksonville Jaguars are two and four. The
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars, though still at home, three point favorites regardless
Speaker 1: of record of these two teams. Forty two and a
Speaker 1: half is the number if you like the Giants to continue.
Speaker 1: They're winning ways. Unto Brian Dable, well you can get
Speaker 1: it at plus one eighteen. Matthew Friedman, when you're taking
Speaker 1: a look at this one, I know it's hard to
Speaker 1: believe in the Giants, But do you believe in the Giants?
Speaker 4: Let me see.
Speaker 5: I want to make sure I actually see what No,
Speaker 5: because I like I wrote them up like I'm on
Speaker 5: this game. I'm just not sure if I actually entered
Speaker 5: this bet into our tracker, but I bet it. I'm
Speaker 5: on the Giants. In this spot, like one on the Giants.
Speaker 5: L Jones is twelve and four is a road underdog.
Speaker 5: I've actually been like, I haven't been impressed with what
Speaker 5: they are doing on a play to play basis, but
Speaker 5: I'm impressed with the way that they like keep games
Speaker 5: close and then pull it out at the end. And
Speaker 5: the Jags like they're fine. They're not as good as
Speaker 5: they looked the first couple of games, but I don't
Speaker 5: think that they should be favored in this spot, Like,
Speaker 5: I think the Giants are the better team, and I
Speaker 5: don't think the Jags have as much of a home
Speaker 5: field advantage as we might think based on the three
Speaker 5: points that they're getting.
Speaker 1: I'll take it a step further. I think the Jags
Speaker 1: are the more talented roster on paper. Yeah, but I
Speaker 1: don't think they play better football than the New York
Speaker 1: Giants are playing right now in terms of effort level
Speaker 1: at times on both sides of the football. I think
Speaker 1: that's kind of where I kind of where Friedman is,
Speaker 1: where I'm leading towards the Giants here, Pat, are you
Speaker 1: also on that train where you're looking at what the
Speaker 1: Giants have done so far? It doesn't make sense necessarily
Speaker 1: when you see the players that they're running out there,
Speaker 1: but the level of I would say effort that they're
Speaker 1: giving is there, and they're keeping these games close. And
Speaker 1: when you win these close games in the NFL, it
Speaker 1: tends to become something that carries over with confidence and
Speaker 1: you start to believe that you're going to win all
Speaker 1: these close games and that's a huge mental advantage.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this defense is actually pretty good, and I think
Speaker 2: it's one of the more underrated defenses in the league.
Speaker 2: And when you know they get disease Ogulari back, they're
Speaker 2: going to have him and Leonard Williams and Keveon Thibodau upfront,
Speaker 2: and that is pretty nasty.
Speaker 3: That's going to be a lot to contend with.
Speaker 2: And you mentioned it, Joe, like Daniel Jones, like he well,
Speaker 2: he's not giving the ball away. I mean he used
Speaker 2: to be reliable, Yeah right, he used to be reliable
Speaker 2: for like one or two just mind numbingly stupid turnovers
Speaker 2: in the past and he has not done that and
Speaker 2: that has helped the Giants stay in these close games.
Speaker 2: So yeah, like, I'm not rushing to bat this one,
Speaker 2: but if I were going to bet it, it would
Speaker 2: definitely be the Giant.
Speaker 5: Here's one thing to add into this, though, I slash
Speaker 5: we might be wrong on this, just based on the
Speaker 5: early line movement.
Speaker 4: You know, it was two two and a half.
Speaker 5: It has moved to three at some books, So it
Speaker 5: is moving against us towards the Jaguars, which I just
Speaker 5: I think that's wrong.
Speaker 4: But I don't know. Maybe it's people just being skeptical
Speaker 4: of the Giants.
Speaker 1: I think they're being skeptical to the Giants because I
Speaker 1: think you look at the roster and you look at
Speaker 1: the comparison, and you see the same thing I just
Speaker 1: laid out, which is there's more talent, there's more offensive
Speaker 1: explosiveness beside Saquon Barkley. It's hard to get excited about
Speaker 1: the Giants offense. Let's be honest. But as long as
Speaker 1: Barkley run the ball and play defense, right at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, that simple formula football still works
Speaker 1: in the regular season. It doesn't work necessarily in the
Speaker 1: playoffs nowadays in this version of the NFL. But regular season,
Speaker 1: that stuff travels, you know, especially that travels defense and
Speaker 1: run the football. Let's go to the Colts. Three to
Speaker 1: two one. That's the record for the Colts. They are
Speaker 1: two and a half point underdogs heading to Tennessee or
Speaker 1: another rematch. Last time these two teams met, Tennessee got
Speaker 1: the better of Indianapolis in their building. Now we're going
Speaker 1: to see if they can repay the favor. Forty two
Speaker 1: and a half is the number if you like the
Speaker 1: Colts on the money line plus one twenty two. So
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan and the Colts kind of pulled themselves up
Speaker 1: by the Haunches with Dion Jackson, no Jonathan Taylor. They
Speaker 1: got a w against Jacksonville. Does that momentum gary over
Speaker 1: here at all for you? Pat Fitzmorris in this game
Speaker 1: against the Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 2: Oh, man, I feel like you should just skip me, Joe,
Speaker 2: Like I cannot get on the right side of the
Speaker 2: Colts this year. Like I have no read on what's
Speaker 2: going over here.
Speaker 1: Everybody has that one team. I could see that the
Speaker 1: Colts being that for a lot of people.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet.
Speaker 2: I bet the Jaguars hard against them yesterday and you know,
Speaker 2: got it handed to me. I figured they'd really struggle
Speaker 2: without Jonathan Taylor, without Nahem Hines and more importantly without
Speaker 2: Shaq Leonard and who else were they missing on defense?
Speaker 3: There was some other key oh quitty patty.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, So man, I just like I thought they
Speaker 2: would have a really hard time yesterday and they were scrappy.
Speaker 3: Like the passing game has not worked for them the past.
Speaker 2: Blocking has been terrible, the offensive line's been like shockingly bad.
Speaker 2: And you know, they somehow managed to run like what
Speaker 2: seventy four offensive plays yesterday and keep the ball in
Speaker 2: their hands pretty much the entire game.
Speaker 3: It was a really weird game. Script.
Speaker 2: I just like nothing the Colts does is kind of
Speaker 2: the way I think it's going to be this year.
Speaker 2: Like they've just sort of surprised me at every turn.
Speaker 2: So I just like, I don't want to touch any
Speaker 2: game involving Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: All right, So free event, should we go full George
Speaker 1: Castanza here and just go against every good instinct we
Speaker 1: have and whatever we think the Colts will be doing,
Speaker 1: we should just bet the opposite here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't.
Speaker 5: I don't know with the Colts. I mean, I have
Speaker 5: this at one point seventy five, so in theory there's
Speaker 5: a little bit of value, but not really like the
Speaker 5: difference between that and the two to two and a
Speaker 5: half we see in the market as negligible, but I
Speaker 5: do think there's value on the under. You know, we've
Speaker 5: got two divisional opponents the numbers forty two, forty two
Speaker 5: and a half. We got two divisional opponents who like
Speaker 5: to run the ball, and I don't know, I just
Speaker 5: neither offense is very good. So this just neither defense
Speaker 5: is all that great either. But I think with the
Speaker 5: divisional opponents who know each other and have a run
Speaker 5: heavy offensive focus.
Speaker 4: Forty two is just a little too high.
Speaker 1: Now, if you watched or listened to last week's show,
Speaker 1: you know that I was picking on the Green Bay
Speaker 1: Packers a bit and talking about the New York Jets
Speaker 1: and that number and all that stuff. Now they went
Speaker 1: out and won outright, But if ever there was a
Speaker 1: game here for the Packers to maybe get this this
Speaker 1: air attack of theirs, right, it's the Washington secondary. You
Speaker 1: would imagine this is an opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to
Speaker 1: start throwing the football comfortably again. Especially we have an
Speaker 1: injury at the quarterback position here with Washington or Wentz
Speaker 1: is going to be out for a while. I get
Speaker 1: Heinikey back in here. So the two and four Washington
Speaker 1: commanders are going to be taking on the Green Bay
Speaker 1: Packers at home here in Washington, I point underdogs the
Speaker 1: Packers five point favorites. Forty one and a half is
Speaker 1: the over under. If you like Washington for another upset,
Speaker 1: it's plus one eighty five. But for even this week
Speaker 1: to week league, right, and sometimes we can't get to
Speaker 1: invested in what was going on the last week. Yes,
Speaker 1: it was ugly. Yes it's not what you expected if
Speaker 1: you had the Packers and you thought that they were
Speaker 1: going to blow out the Jets and handle their business.
Speaker 1: They did not. But I almost feel like this five
Speaker 1: is too small of a number against a team like Washington.
Speaker 1: Do you agree?
Speaker 5: No, I significantly downgraded. Finally, it was about time significantly
Speaker 5: integrated the past rule.
Speaker 1: To do it to you.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: And the thing is I had, actually, even with the
Speaker 5: preliminary projections that we had going into week six, I
Speaker 5: still thought this week seven number was too high. So
Speaker 5: and that was when it was seven. So I actually
Speaker 5: have Washington plus seven in this spot. But I still
Speaker 5: think there's value at five and a half is a
Speaker 5: number that you see floating around at at MGM's also
Speaker 5: at FanDuel. I think there's value at that number. I
Speaker 5: have this at four point two five, so you know
Speaker 5: a little bit of value there. If I had to
Speaker 5: take a side here, it would be Washington.
Speaker 1: All right, Pat fitz Morris, I'm gonna put you on
Speaker 1: the spot here with the Green Bay Packers, But I
Speaker 1: don't know. This feels like a good opportunity for a
Speaker 1: get right game and to kind of write the ship
Speaker 1: here for the Packers, because if this isn't then the
Speaker 1: Packers are really headed in a bad direction. The Washington
Speaker 1: Commanders are not a good football team. You're down to
Speaker 1: the second string quarterback, That defense is not played well,
Speaker 1: especially in the secondary. So what do you think about
Speaker 1: this number here in this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the instinct I almost want to spit
Speaker 2: bet on Washington, But I'm not going to do that, Joe,
Speaker 2: because I hear what you're saying, and it wouldn't shock
Speaker 2: me if the Packers kind of pulled things together and
Speaker 2: blew out Washington, which, as you mentioned, major problems on defense,
Speaker 2: major problems on offense, a backup quarterback. They should never
Speaker 2: have covered that Thursday night game against the Bears. I
Speaker 2: mean the Bears just throwing an interception at the Washington
Speaker 2: five yard failing to punch one in on fourth and
Speaker 2: goal at like the one foot line, because they the
Speaker 2: Bears decided to run their two hundred and ten pound
Speaker 2: backup running back who just had like a sixty yard
Speaker 2: run and was gassed, rather than David Montgomery. Just like
Speaker 2: so many ways, the Bears blew that game, and like
Speaker 2: the Washington franchise right now, just from the top down,
Speaker 2: not in a good way.
Speaker 3: Major problems.
Speaker 2: And but you know, the Packers like they can't beat
Speaker 2: anyone downfield anymore, which is unusual, which means teams are
Speaker 2: playing safeties up and shutting down the running game.
Speaker 3: The defense as holes.
Speaker 2: They've got good cornerbacks, but they play zone like ninety
Speaker 2: percent of the time, which foggles my mind. Like, I'm
Speaker 2: probably just gonna not touch this game, as I do
Speaker 2: with a lot of Packers games, because as a Packers fan,
Speaker 2: I do not like betting on my team. You know,
Speaker 2: sometimes I'll bet against them, but I can't do that
Speaker 2: with Washington here, So I'm just gonna walk away and
Speaker 2: let Friedman be wrong on the Packers yet again.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna bet it for you. I'm done right now.
Speaker 1: And again I'm somebody who's taken the shots at the
Speaker 1: Packers these last few weeks and mostly have been right there.
Speaker 1: But I think this is a game where you just
Speaker 1: it's just outclass. And I think this is when you
Speaker 1: tell those other the young wide receiver group that you
Speaker 1: got Look, you go out there and you go make
Speaker 1: some plays, and you gotta have some confidence. You gotta
Speaker 1: have the ability to make some mistakes here and not
Speaker 1: worry about it, because I think you can afford to
Speaker 1: do that. Against Washington, I feel like that margin of
Speaker 1: error hasn't been there for them, but it will be
Speaker 1: there in this game. Speaking of the New York Jets,
Speaker 1: by the way, who went in and beat the Packers
Speaker 1: in Green Bay, I still can't believe that really happened.
Speaker 1: Four and two are the New York Jets. They are
Speaker 1: three point underdogs though against the Denver Broncos. We'll see
Speaker 1: what the Broncos have in store for us tonight. Everyone
Speaker 1: knows I'm done with the Broncos. I'm over it. I
Speaker 1: don't care I need to see it anymore. Forty two
Speaker 1: and a half is the number here if you like
Speaker 1: the Jets, and maybe I do. At plus one thirty
Speaker 1: eight heading to Denver. Now, Denver obviously a different environment.
Speaker 1: You always have to deal with the altitude there. The
Speaker 1: Jets are a team that offensively, you're not going to
Speaker 1: really push the ball down. It's going to be more
Speaker 1: of a ground and pound kind of attack. The defense
Speaker 1: has played well. Can they take that formula pafits Morris
Speaker 1: and can they take it to Denver? And can they
Speaker 1: take it to the Broncos here in this line or
Speaker 1: really look ahea.
Speaker 2: I think they can with the way the Denver offense
Speaker 2: has struggled so far, And even though the Jets did
Speaker 2: very little through the air against Green Bay this past week,
Speaker 2: it didn't matter because they've got Breece hollwho I think
Speaker 2: has had more total yards from scrimmage through the first
Speaker 2: six weeks of the season than any Jets since Curtis Martin, Like,
Speaker 2: he's been really impressive. He's been kind of a one
Speaker 2: man offense for them in the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 2: and a one man offense might be enough against this
Speaker 2: Denver offense which has really struggled. So I think the
Speaker 2: line's about right. I think the total is about right.
Speaker 2: I don't see really any value on either side here,
Speaker 2: but the Jets could absolutely win this game if I
Speaker 2: were going to put a bet down, it would probably
Speaker 2: be Jets on the money line.
Speaker 1: I love it, Jets on the money line. Let's go Friedman,
Speaker 1: you gotta join hands with us or you see this
Speaker 1: game differently.
Speaker 5: No, I'm I'm on the Broncos and I feel dirty
Speaker 5: about it. But and so we're doing this before Monday
Speaker 5: night football, so you know, maybe anything we see in
Speaker 5: this game could make me hate my bet, you know,
Speaker 5: come come tomorrow morning. But I have this at Denver
Speaker 5: minus five. And this is maybe more of a sort
Speaker 5: of like faith based bet, and you know, sort of
Speaker 5: a little.
Speaker 1: What faith and what at this point because it can't
Speaker 1: be the coaching, it can't be the quarterback play.
Speaker 5: Yes, all of that is fair faith in a couple
Speaker 5: of things. The defense is pretty good. I think that
Speaker 5: the Jets offense is still a little bit fraudulent, Like
Speaker 5: I still haven't seen Zach Wilson go out and really
Speaker 5: do it against a good defense. And I do think
Speaker 5: the Broncos have a good defense. So you know, the
Speaker 5: home field advantage at my high stadium is pretty significant.
Speaker 4: I don't know, I'm just not buying the Jets yet.
Speaker 5: Maybe maybe after they go in to uh to mile
Speaker 5: high and get the win outright, then I'll have more
Speaker 5: respect for them.
Speaker 4: I just I kind of don't have a lot of
Speaker 4: respect for him right now.
Speaker 1: Did you think the Green Bay Packers defense was good
Speaker 1: coming into the year, Because certainly on paper.
Speaker 5: I did think it was good. It's that it's not good.
Speaker 5: It hasn't played well.
Speaker 1: But I thought they were a good talented unit.
Speaker 3: Yes, But can I just say something, Yeah, sure, I
Speaker 3: was just gonna say.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Jets passing game is one hundred percent fraudulented,
Speaker 2: but they still have an offense now because of Breece
Speaker 2: Hall and like Michael Carter is a reasonably good backup.
Speaker 2: Like they've thrown one touchdown pass Zach Wilson has in
Speaker 2: the three games since he's been back, and they've won
Speaker 2: all those games.
Speaker 3: Like it's it's that's not sustainable.
Speaker 2: I know it's not, but like Breece Hall is sustainable,
Speaker 2: Like he's generating enough offense for.
Speaker 1: The what's sustainable, Sauce Gardner sustainable. And I don't think
Speaker 1: we talk enough about quitting Williams in the front what
Speaker 1: he's been doing. And we're not, I mean we're really not.
Speaker 1: I mean the IDP show, we talked about it, which,
Speaker 1: by the way, we have the IDP show over in
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pro side for those of you who play.
Speaker 1: But we were talking about how difference maker he is
Speaker 1: and when you have a shutdown corner, how that allows
Speaker 1: you to get those cover shacks. It allows you to
Speaker 1: do a lot more things. And if you could take
Speaker 1: away Courtland Sutton in this game from the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: That's been the biggest bugaboo for Russell Wilson is finding
Speaker 1: other receivers. He has this tunnel vision that I've seen
Speaker 1: all year for one wide receiver. On one play, his
Speaker 1: head does not swivel, his head does not move, and
Speaker 1: it was in full effect against the last week in
Speaker 1: the Thursday Night football game when you saw kJ Hamler
Speaker 1: completely wide open. He never even looked another way. All
Speaker 1: he saw was Sutton, and all Sutton saw was Stefan Gilmore.
Speaker 1: And I just don't know when that changes, and until
Speaker 1: it does, I'm concerned about the Broncos. I'm concerned also
Speaker 1: about the Las Vegas Raiders. At one and four, they
Speaker 1: are seven point favorites tier against the Houston Texans, who
Speaker 1: got their first win and took a week off. They
Speaker 1: said go take a week off. Everybody, great job. We'll
Speaker 1: come back in two weeks and we'll play again. Forty
Speaker 1: four is the number plus two forty five in the
Speaker 1: money line for the Houston Texans plus three hundred for
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raids. So the Raiders are heavy favorites here, Friedman.
Speaker 1: But that just kind of feels talk about dirty, talk
Speaker 1: about uncomfortable, the Raiders being a heavy favorites period, just
Speaker 1: full stop. That worries me. Does this line worry you?
Speaker 5: I have it at seven and a half, actually, so
Speaker 5: given that it's sitting at seven, I maybe should be
Speaker 5: betting it. But as you say, like it's the Raiders,
Speaker 5: I don't have I don't have a lot of optimism
Speaker 5: with them. And the thing is like, in theory, the
Speaker 5: advantage that they should have coming off of the buy
Speaker 5: is negated because they're going against another team coming off
Speaker 5: of the bye. So it's like, it's not like, what's
Speaker 5: the point of the bye week, it's just that they
Speaker 5: have no edge.
Speaker 4: They're having rested for fourteen days.
Speaker 5: So I don't know, seven and a half it feels
Speaker 5: like a little bit too much and I don't have
Speaker 5: enough faith in it to bet it all.
Speaker 1: Right, how about you, Pat? When you look at this
Speaker 1: game with the Raiders, seven, it's a pretty big number
Speaker 1: for a team that's one and four and play the
Speaker 1: way they have, especially on defense.
Speaker 2: It is but this is actually the best I've felt
Speaker 2: about a Raiders defense in a long time. Like, I
Speaker 2: think this is a fairly respectable if not like good defense,
Speaker 2: it's at least respectable. And they are versatile on offense,
Speaker 2: like they have really gotten that running game going with
Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs lately, and certainly DeVante Adams has added a
Speaker 2: new dimension to their passing attack. It's weird, like DeVante's
Speaker 2: catch rates and yards per target way down, but man,
Speaker 2: he gives them a big play dimension that they didn't
Speaker 2: necessarily have before. So, like I think the numbers right, Joe, seven,
Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right, That's what I had projected
Speaker 2: it at. I think there might be a little bit
Speaker 2: of value in the under here though, because I do
Speaker 2: have respect for this Raiders defense, and I still think,
Speaker 2: you know, the Houston offense is a little under man
Speaker 2: like Damian Pierce has been good for them, but still
Speaker 2: not much of a passing game there. So I think
Speaker 2: the total is maybe a point too high.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like the Raiders are a team path
Speaker 1: that are going to get better as the season goes on.
Speaker 1: It's just how bad are they in the beginning in
Speaker 1: terms of record, where it doesn't matter, like you gotta
Speaker 1: take care of business, like you got to be Houston
Speaker 1: at home. Here's a very simple game here. You got
Speaker 1: to take take care of your business.
Speaker 2: Friedman got me on the Raiders under for their season
Speaker 2: long win total, and I'm glad they've gotten off to
Speaker 2: this slow start because like this is a team that's
Speaker 2: maybe a little better than I thought they were going
Speaker 2: to be. Freedman pointed out some scheduling obstacles they have,
Speaker 2: how they are actually you know, set up in kind
Speaker 2: of a bad way. Maybe the NFL league office still
Speaker 2: hates Al Davis and doesn't want to give the Raiders
Speaker 2: any favors with scheduling. But Friedman pointed out that they
Speaker 2: have kind of a treacherous path this season. So you know,
Speaker 2: I'm glad that they've lost some close ones otherwise that
Speaker 2: that might not be looking that great right now.
Speaker 3: I think it was what was it, Friedman eight and eighty. Yeah,
Speaker 3: So I don't know, they're they're better than I thought
Speaker 3: they were going to be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're gonna be dangerous though, if they ever start
Speaker 1: to put it all together here and there's a lot
Speaker 1: of new pieces, you know, do you know Devonte Adams
Speaker 1: who had coached there's some newness there still that still
Speaker 1: has got to come together. The Los Angeles Chargers three
Speaker 1: and two home favorites by seven over the Seattle Seahawks,
Speaker 1: who are five hundred team right now, three and three.
Speaker 1: The number for this one is fifty two. Seattle on
Speaker 1: the money line is plus two to fifty. Now, Pat,
Speaker 1: if you like this game for offense, are you over
Speaker 1: this fifty two?
Speaker 2: Probably not gonna play the total here, Joe, Okay, I'm
Speaker 2: more inclined to play Seattle, which you know, they've been
Speaker 2: so unexpectedly proficient on offense this season, and then we
Speaker 2: actually saw the defense show up in Week six again
Speaker 2: get Cardinals, and like, I don't know what to make
Speaker 2: of the Chargers.
Speaker 3: I don't think.
Speaker 2: They're as good after that lost to the Chiefs on
Speaker 2: Thursday night in what we two, Like I thought the
Speaker 2: Chargers look like a super Bowl caliber team in that game,
Speaker 2: like they uh, you know, kind of I've had firepower
Speaker 2: on both ends ever since that game. Things have sort
Speaker 2: of crumbled for them a little bit, and I just
Speaker 2: don't have the same feeling I had about them.
Speaker 3: Injuries are part of it, but I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think a touchdown might be too much in this one.
Speaker 3: I kind of like the points with Seattle.
Speaker 1: Are you the same mind, Freeman?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've already bet Seattle plus seven. I will say, though,
Speaker 5: I have this projected at fifty four point seven, which
Speaker 5: just feels ridiculous and I hate that number, and given
Speaker 5: the under environment that we've seen, but there's no way
Speaker 5: I feel like I can bet it.
Speaker 4: But that is the projection. I mean, Seattle has allowed.
Speaker 5: A ton of points minus whatever we saw yesterday with
Speaker 5: the Cardinals, but they've allowed a ton of points this year.
Speaker 5: The Chargers have been more of an over team as well.
Speaker 5: So I do have this projected with significant value to
Speaker 5: the over. But I just kind of want to go
Speaker 5: in and manually change that projection because I'm not buying it.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's see, we're buying the San Francisco forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers. They are three point home underdogs to the
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come to town of dropping
Speaker 1: that tough game to the bills where they had it
Speaker 1: and lost it at the end. Forty seven is the
Speaker 1: number on this one. If you like San Francisco to
Speaker 1: win its plus one thirty five on the money line.
Speaker 1: How do you see this one an early look at
Speaker 1: Is there any value at all in your opinion, Freeman
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs or San Francisco?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I have this projected at two and a half and
Speaker 5: the you know, in the look ahead it was one
Speaker 5: and a half. In the early line, it was two
Speaker 5: and a half, and now it's moved to three. So
Speaker 5: you know, in theory there's some value on San Francisco
Speaker 5: here as an underdog like Jimmy Garoppolo as an underdog
Speaker 5: historically has done well. But it is such an injured
Speaker 5: San Francisco team right now on both sides of the
Speaker 5: ball that I don't think you can take them. And
Speaker 5: if I had to take any side on here, it
Speaker 5: would be Kansas City.
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 1: How about you? Pat Fitzmorris, do you see it the
Speaker 1: same way?
Speaker 2: No, I'm not taking Kansas City anym. They've hurt me
Speaker 2: too badly the last two weeks, so I'm not gonna
Speaker 2: be on them. And I had this one projected as
Speaker 2: Kansas City is a one point favorite, so I do
Speaker 2: see some value with the forty nine ers, but as
Speaker 2: Friedman said, they've got some injury issues, so I'm not
Speaker 2: going to bet the early line until we get a
Speaker 2: little more clarity on some of those injuries. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: the total seems about right, but man, I don't love
Speaker 2: Kansas City going on the road and covering the three too,
Speaker 2: being right on that key number, Like if this moves down,
Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe you do.
Speaker 5: You like San Francisco enough to where you think if
Speaker 5: it hits three and a half you're betting it.
Speaker 3: I would bet them at three and a half.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I don't know if this I'm skeptical this
Speaker 5: would hit three and a half. But I mean if
Speaker 5: you like San Francisco at one, I think go ahead
Speaker 5: and take them at three. You know, like their injury
Speaker 5: issues aren't going to get worse, Like that's already baked
Speaker 5: into the line, and maybe they get better, like maybe
Speaker 5: they get Bosa back this week, maybe they start to
Speaker 5: get some of their players back, so that might be
Speaker 5: something to factor into it. Like if you like San
Speaker 5: Francisco threes, I mean, as you say, like they're at
Speaker 5: home they're a good team.
Speaker 4: I don't know if it's going to get better than three.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I don't hold that loss to Atlanta against
Speaker 2: them that much. I mean it's a West Coast team
Speaker 2: going out east playing an early start game. We often
Speaker 2: see those teams kind of stumble like that, So I'm
Speaker 2: not I don't know, I feel like that is being
Speaker 2: held against the forty nine ers with this line, and
Speaker 2: I like, I don't consider that like a horrendous loss
Speaker 2: for the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: I'm sure their fans do, but you know, we see
Speaker 3: slip ups like that all the time.
Speaker 5: I think also part of what's going into this line
Speaker 5: is some maybe like kind of newfound respect for the
Speaker 5: Chiefs because like people were really on the Bills entering
Speaker 5: that game, and the Chiefs were right there.
Speaker 4: Like the Chiefs.
Speaker 5: I wouldn't say that like they lost the game versus
Speaker 5: the Bills winning it, but like they showed like, at
Speaker 5: least in my opinion, like they showed that. I was
Speaker 5: like impressed with both of those teams coming out of
Speaker 5: that win.
Speaker 1: I was like also had some more opportunities, Like is say,
Speaker 1: Mackenzie had a couple key drops in that game, And
Speaker 1: I think I think the Bills could have the Bills
Speaker 1: could have been the Bills that people were anticipating. There
Speaker 1: were a couple of moments where they didn't take advantage
Speaker 1: of those opportunities. But the Chiefs, to their credit, didn't
Speaker 1: lay down. They kept fighting. They were in this game.
Speaker 1: They had the lead in the last couple of minutes
Speaker 1: of the game. Like everything that you expected from the
Speaker 1: Chiefs in their peak was there. But I think what
Speaker 1: showed is that that big playmaking ability to Tyree Hill
Speaker 1: not being that offense. It hurts this offense. It hurts
Speaker 1: their ability in those games against teams like Buffalo that
Speaker 1: was lacking for sure. I mean, Juju had a couple
Speaker 1: of moments, but you know, maybe if somebody makes the
Speaker 1: right tackle. We don't have those moments for Juju. Let's
Speaker 1: get to a game that I think is terribly difficult.
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, I think this is the most
Speaker 1: difficult one on the slate. Miami Dolphins theoretically getting to
Speaker 1: a back. We think they are seven point favorites. Again,
Speaker 1: it's the Pittsburgh Steelers who just won at home against
Speaker 1: Tom Brady the Buccaneers. Forty four and a half is
Speaker 1: a number the Steelers are plus two forty on the
Speaker 1: money line. Friedman, I don't know what to do with
Speaker 1: this game. What do you make of this one?
Speaker 5: I have Miami as a seven point seventy five favorite,
Speaker 5: So you know, given that this is at seven, there's
Speaker 5: you know, a little bit of value there being able
Speaker 5: to get it on the key number, and I have
Speaker 5: bet it at seven. I did bet it on the
Speaker 5: look ahead because I assumed the too would be coming back.
Speaker 5: I don't know if there's much of a difference between
Speaker 5: Kinny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky in terms of like the
Speaker 5: quarterback situation for the Steelers, to be honest, So I
Speaker 5: don't know if that factors too much into the number,
Speaker 5: But I do think that this should be above seven,
Speaker 5: all right, Pat, Do you see it the same way?
Speaker 3: Not at all.
Speaker 2: I kind of see it the other way that, Like
Speaker 2: I've got this at Miami by five. I have a
Speaker 2: little more respect for Pittsburgh and think, well, there's some
Speaker 2: ambigie a quarterback, Like we don't know if Kenny Pickett
Speaker 2: is going to be able to play next week, but
Speaker 2: like I think this offense is it's got more teeth
Speaker 2: than maybe it had at the beginning of the season,
Speaker 2: and you know, part of that is renewed life in
Speaker 2: the passing game, and we saw Chase Claypole kind of
Speaker 2: spring to life last week. Three very good wide receivers,
Speaker 2: like I think they're capable of scoring with Miami, and
Speaker 2: Miami's past defense is pretty terrible, quite frankly.
Speaker 1: So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like, I don't know, I have too much respect,
Speaker 2: I think for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh, and maybe that's
Speaker 2: a too much respect for a team that hasn't necessarily
Speaker 2: always earned it this year, but this just feels like
Speaker 2: too big a number to me, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Last one on this late the Chicago Bears a
Speaker 1: two to four head to New England. New England is
Speaker 1: seven and a half point favorites at home. We still
Speaker 1: have quarterback uncertainty in this game as well a lot
Speaker 1: of games where you don't know exactly who is going
Speaker 1: to be under for those teams. But regardless, New England
Speaker 1: seems to be playing very good defense these last few weeks.
Speaker 1: Great game against the Cleveland Browns, a very good performance
Speaker 1: in Green Bay a few weeks ago in a shutout
Speaker 1: against the Lions. In between, thirty nine and a half
Speaker 1: is the over under for this one, Pat, what do
Speaker 1: you think of this number? Seven and a half? It's
Speaker 1: a big number for New England, not a prolific theoretical offense,
Speaker 1: but from a defensive standpoint and the lack of offense
Speaker 1: in the Chicago side. Do you think this is a
Speaker 1: comfortable number?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you've said it, Joe.
Speaker 2: It does seem like a big number, especially for a
Speaker 2: game with what a thirty nine point total, So you know, like, I.
Speaker 1: Hate that is what they're telling you one right right.
Speaker 2: And it might be that the Chicago offense has certainly struggled.
Speaker 3: The weird thing is, Joe, like, I like New England much.
Speaker 2: Less at this number if Mac Jones comes back, Like
Speaker 2: I think, if Mac Jones comes back at seven and
Speaker 2: a half, I might put a little something on the Bears.
Speaker 2: If it's Bailey Zappy again, I think I'll probably just
Speaker 2: walk away because this line seems right. But I'm kind
Speaker 2: of of anticipating Mac Jones comes back this week, and like,
Speaker 2: I don't know, I think if Mac Jones does come back,
Speaker 2: there's going to be some rust. I think we're going
Speaker 2: to see yet another solo primetime Ugly Monday or Bears game,
Speaker 2: Like can we get the Bears off of primetime please,
Speaker 2: Like this is their third prime time game already, Oh
Speaker 2: my goodness. Like I know, I know you want to
Speaker 2: do it early in the season before their record is
Speaker 2: trash and and you know no one wants to see
Speaker 2: them and wall or whatever. But I mean, for the
Speaker 2: love of God, like they're they're losing viewers here, this
Speaker 2: is bad.
Speaker 3: Get the Bears off at primetime?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 1: How about you here, Friedman? What do you see in
Speaker 1: this contest?
Speaker 5: I have it at six point seventy five, So in theory,
Speaker 5: you know, under the seven, given that you're you're having
Speaker 5: the hook here, like there's value there, But I just
Speaker 5: I don't trust it. I am factoring in mac Jones
Speaker 5: plane in this number.
Speaker 4: I don't know. I think it's Bears or nothing for me,
Speaker 4: and it's probably nothing.
Speaker 1: Airs are nothing, all right, Freed, But let's stick with you.
Speaker 1: Give me a favorite three look ahead week seven wagers
Speaker 1: that you want to lock in now before the line
Speaker 1: start moving?
Speaker 4: Okay, if only I said it about it?
Speaker 1: Please?
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, gee, it's it's very weird because
Speaker 5: I felt like I had a good read on things
Speaker 5: last week. I had had a couple of kind of
Speaker 5: like mediocre, like break even weeks, and then last week
Speaker 5: was good. I had a seven and three week, and
Speaker 5: this week I just don't feel as good about it
Speaker 5: as I did last week. But I you know, I
Speaker 5: still like Lions at plus seven on the road in Dallas.
Speaker 4: I do like the Lions there. I still like the Ravens.
Speaker 4: Here's the thing I hate.
Speaker 5: I kind of hate being like the square like oh,
Speaker 5: I like the home favorite, you know, with like the
Speaker 5: Ravens here with a large number. But I still like
Speaker 5: the Ravens at minus six as home favorites going against
Speaker 5: a Browns team that I think is is floundering and
Speaker 5: hasn't had any record of success within division.
Speaker 4: So I like that. And then one.
Speaker 5: More here I will I will say the under in
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay Carolina under forty one. I think that is
Speaker 5: a that is a bet that I probably like the
Speaker 5: most out of all of the totals because I just
Speaker 5: don't see either of these teams really putting up a
Speaker 5: lot of points.
Speaker 1: Fitz Morris, what tickles your fancy here in the early
Speaker 1: look ahead for week seven?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm very much with Friedman on the Ravens here,
Speaker 2: especially coming off the bad loss like the Browns defense
Speaker 2: has just been absolute trash and I'm kind of surprised
Speaker 2: this line is what it is. I'm going to take
Speaker 2: the Ravens. That's a confident four star play for me
Speaker 2: this week, which is the kiss of death.
Speaker 3: Of course.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm going to join the Twitter mob with
Speaker 2: their torches and pitchforks on Thursday nights, and I'm going
Speaker 2: to take a pitchfork, and I'm going to bet the
Speaker 2: Saints getting points against an Arizona team that should not
Speaker 2: be favored against, you know, almost anyone, much less a
Speaker 2: fairly spectable Saints team. So I'll take the Saints. Theren Man,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take this Pittsburgh game. I'm gonna have to
Speaker 2: take a second look if Friedman is that different from it.
Speaker 2: I certainly respect Friedman's acumen on these things, and if
Speaker 2: we're like two and a half, what two point seventy
Speaker 2: five points apart, I'm gonna have to take a closer look.
Speaker 2: But as of now, I kind of like Pittsburgh as
Speaker 2: a road dog in Miami.
Speaker 1: All Right, we'll all re examine our acumens throughout the
Speaker 1: week and we'll see how lines move, and of course,
Speaker 1: stay up to date with everything over at bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com for all of the latest in terms of the
Speaker 1: news and notes of what's going on in the betting world.
Speaker 1: Do I have college football as well? Make sure you
Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel as well. Betting Pros is
Speaker 1: on the YouTube. If you don't know, click that little
Speaker 1: bell for notifications when you sign up. Make sure you
Speaker 1: do that, and don't forget to go out there and
Speaker 1: play that over undergame. It's available on Sleeper right now.
Speaker 1: That's again can be found at Sleeper dot app slash
Speaker 1: betting Pros and use that promo code betting Pros when
Speaker 1: you sign up to get that one hundred dollars deposit match.
Speaker 1: And that'll do it for us. But the story of
Speaker 1: the game goes on on for Pat and Matt. I'm
Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time kids. M