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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Welcome in, everybody to

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros. It's me Joey pa Joe Pisapia, and already

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Speaker 1: it's time to look ahead to Week seven in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Week six had some wacky moments, certainly some upsets. Certainly

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Speaker 1: some people who are not in the good graces with

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Speaker 1: their respective teams as of this point. But luckily that's

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Speaker 1: not the case here. I love my team. I've got

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Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris, I've got Matthew Friedman, I've got the crew

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Speaker 1: to break it all down. Certainly, last week we made

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Speaker 1: some money on the early look ahead, and hopefully we

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Speaker 1: could do that again with my boys today. And don't

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Speaker 1: forget all of our great content going on here over

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Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com, so check that out, check out

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Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat sheet, and obviously everything here we

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Speaker 1: do is sponsored by BETTMGM, the King of sports books.

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Speaker 1: Everybody knows that maybe I'll put on the crown later,

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Speaker 1: we'll see how the show goes. But Pat Fitzmorris, Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 1: let's just jump in head first. Let's go right into

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Speaker 1: the pool and look ahead at Thursday night football, because goodness, knows.

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Speaker 1: We need a better Thursday night football game. It can't

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Speaker 1: get worse. That's what I told myself last Thursday, and

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I was right or wrong. New

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Speaker 1: Orleans Arizona. That's what we have this week. Arizona is

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Speaker 1: two point favorites at home. The Saints continue to scuffle.

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Speaker 1: Both teams are two and four. The number is forty five.

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Speaker 1: If you like New Orleans on the money line, it's

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Speaker 1: plus one twelve. So Pat Fitzmorris, Thursday night has not

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Speaker 1: been great for football. Let's just leave it at that.

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Speaker 1: This game right here, is it great for a betting

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Speaker 1: standpoint when you're looking ahead.

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Speaker 2: It could be, And it could be great from a

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Speaker 2: Twitter standpoint, getting to criticize Cliff Kingsbury all night and

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Speaker 2: the watch the barbs flying on Twitter. So you know,

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Speaker 2: that's the great thing about Thursday night games, Joe, even

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Speaker 2: if the football is not good, Twitter is a fun

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Speaker 2: place during a bad Thursday night game. So we could

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Speaker 2: get that again this week. And I kind of like

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Speaker 2: the Saints as a dog here. I mean like Arizona

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Speaker 2: has just been such an underachiever. The offense is just

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Speaker 2: it's stuck in the mud. There have been times where

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Speaker 2: they get into the second half and Kyler is basically

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Speaker 2: drawing up plays in the dirt and it works. Like

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Speaker 2: the comeback victory against the Raiders. That's as good as

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Speaker 2: the offense has looked all year, and it was total

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Speaker 2: school yard football, like the scripted stuff early on with

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Speaker 2: Cliff not working. It'll be interesting to see how the

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Speaker 2: return of DeAndre Hopkins this week changes the dynamic. But

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Speaker 2: they did lose Hollywood Brown to what looks like it's

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Speaker 2: going to be a multi week foot injury.

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Speaker 3: The Saints have been pretty scrappy.

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Speaker 2: We still don't know what is going on with them

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Speaker 2: at quarterback, whether Jamis Winston is going to be back

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Speaker 2: in Week seven, but they've been good offensively with Andy

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Speaker 2: Dalton at quarterback the last few weeks, and really they

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Speaker 2: haven't played a bad game since that Week two toast

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Speaker 2: stubbing against the Panthers. So I like this plucky Saints

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Speaker 2: team that's reasonably respectable on both sides of the ball

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Speaker 2: against a Cardinals team that kind of isn't respectable on

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Speaker 2: either side of the ball.

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Speaker 3: I just think this game is sort of mispriced.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of feel the same way Friedman. I

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Speaker 1: know there's some moving pieces now in this game. We

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Speaker 1: mentioned some of the injuries there, the return of DeAndre Hopkins,

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Speaker 1: but to me, it's the money lines, the plus one

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Speaker 1: twelve that really peaks my fancy here because I look

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Speaker 1: at that and I say there's opportunity. I think the

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Speaker 1: Saints are just a better team, a better roster, but

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Speaker 1: again still unknown a quarterback for them as well as

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Speaker 1: we head into the short week game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So I have a couple of pieces on betting pros

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Speaker 5: that look at how money line underdogs do versus underdogs

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Speaker 5: against the spread, and historically at leads, like for the

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Speaker 5: past twenty years or so, if you've liked a team

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Speaker 5: an underdog on the spread, it's been a little more

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Speaker 5: profitable actually just to bet them on the money line.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I think the instinct is right there. And

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Speaker 5: I'm very much on your side here, you know, fits

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Speaker 5: and I on the same side. So just kiss of death,

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Speaker 5: just guaranteed we're gonna lose, car Yeah, you know.

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Speaker 4: We lost.

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Speaker 5: We lost last Thursday night game, you know with the Bears,

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Speaker 5: and you know, but I do like the Saints on

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Speaker 5: this side here. Cliff Kingsbury is like a zigzag type

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Speaker 5: of coach where he's been historically very bad in particular situations.

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Speaker 5: Bad at home, bad is a favorite, and as a

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Speaker 5: home favorite four and eleven against the spread, like just

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Speaker 5: you know, just dunk on him anytime he's at home,

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Speaker 5: and Vegas is like, you know what, this guy should

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Speaker 5: be favored. So I am very much on the Saints

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Speaker 5: in the spot, I will say, though the line has

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Speaker 5: moved to I believe one and a half, you could

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Speaker 5: get it two and a half in the look ahead

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Speaker 5: and when it opened at one and a half, like

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Speaker 5: that kind of.

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Speaker 4: Is where I think it should be.

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Speaker 5: But if I'm still going to be betting on Thursday

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Speaker 5: night football and lots of people want to do that

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Speaker 5: because it's fun, I would be betting on the Saints.

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Speaker 5: That said, I feel like the real winners of Thursday

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Speaker 5: night Football have been everyone who hates Jeff Bezos, which

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Speaker 5: it feels like a lot of people. So the idea

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Speaker 5: of him paying billions of dollars to have Thursday night

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Speaker 5: football is funny.

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Speaker 4: And then the people who haven't watched the game shout

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Speaker 4: out me.

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Speaker 5: I haven't watched Thursday night Football in the past two Thursdays,

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Speaker 5: and I felt great about that.

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Speaker 4: Decision.

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Speaker 1: I gotta be honest with you. I watched about like

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Speaker 1: a quarter and a half of both and fell asleep,

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Speaker 1: and I definitely was better off for the sleep, I

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Speaker 1: can tell you that much. Yeah, back ahead.

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Speaker 2: People who work on Thursday nights are the real winners.

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Speaker 2: They're being productive and not watching these games. Kudos to them.

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Speaker 1: I will say that the crew that they have their reactions,

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Speaker 1: you know, if it's Patrick and Sherman, all those guys,

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Speaker 1: that has been entertaining. So I mean, maybe they should

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Speaker 1: just do like the Manning Cast where they let these

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Speaker 1: guys talk in real time and comment about the terrible

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Speaker 1: football going on. Now that's a broadcast I think everybody

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Speaker 1: could get into. Give them a couple of years and

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Speaker 1: see what really happens. Let's get to the next game.

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Speaker 4: Second one. I I lied.

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Speaker 5: I have this as a pick them, so I still

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Speaker 5: think there's there's value at this number here.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, try not to lie to me the

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Speaker 1: rest of the show. All right, Let's go to the

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Speaker 1: next thing here Cleveland at Baltimore Hall, Baltimore. They are

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Speaker 1: letting teams back in every single game here and it

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Speaker 1: is not going well for the Baltimore Ravens. Not the

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Speaker 1: bleeding against the Cleveland Browns coming off of a butt

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Speaker 1: blubbing by the Patriots and their defense. The Cleveland Browns

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Speaker 1: are heading into Baltimore at six and a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: Forty six and a half is the number plus two

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Speaker 1: ten if you like the Cleveland Browns on the money line, Freedman, look,

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Speaker 1: Baltimore at home should always be a very strong investment. However,

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Speaker 1: they have struggled at home this year. They did get

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Speaker 1: right last game at home, but then they go on

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Speaker 1: the road to the Giants and lay another egg. So

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Speaker 1: what do you make of the Baltimore Ravens the six

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Speaker 1: and a half? Is there any way you feel comfortable

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Speaker 1: with this number?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I would grab it before it gets to seven

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Speaker 5: because I think it's going in that direction. And it

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Speaker 5: was six earlier, so we are already moving in that way.

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Speaker 5: And you know, I'm a man of few beliefs, but

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Speaker 5: one of the things I do believe in is betting

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Speaker 5: against Kevin Stefanski in Division. He's two and eleven against

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Speaker 5: the spread in division, just absolutely horrible against teams who

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Speaker 5: know him, and zero to four against the spread against

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Speaker 5: the Ravens. Specifically, I don't have a lot of faith

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Speaker 5: in what's happening with their their offense.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm going to be on the Ravens here.

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Speaker 1: Pat Are you a man of any beliefs when it

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Speaker 1: comes to this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm totally with Friedman. I was stunned when I

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Speaker 2: saw that this was under the key number of seven

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Speaker 2: and grabbed it immediately, like I have this as Ravens

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Speaker 2: seven and a half and the Ravens are one of

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Speaker 2: the teams as a better that I respect the most

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, and it's been really weird to see

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Speaker 2: them lose some of these games the way they have

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Speaker 2: and I'm licking my wounds after betting on them this

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Speaker 2: past week against the Giants. But like at home, their

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Speaker 2: home field advantage means more than some other home field

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Speaker 2: advantages in the NFL, without question, But like they're going

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Speaker 2: against a Cleveland Browns defense that's just completely broken. The

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Speaker 2: Browns gave up four hundred and forty rushing yards in

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Speaker 2: Week four and Week five combined. Then yesterday they sort

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Speaker 2: of get their running game run defense fixed. They did

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Speaker 2: give up three touchdown, but they generally held their own

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Speaker 2: against Romandre Stevenson and the Patriots. But they let Bailey

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Speaker 2: Zappi throw for over three hundred yards an average.

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Speaker 1: Over Nili Zappi disparaged on this program.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean a third stringer, and he averaged nine

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Speaker 2: point one yards per pass attempt against the Browns who

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Speaker 2: had just gotten Greedy Williams back at cornerback. So apparently

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Speaker 2: Greedy did not fix anything in the secondary.

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Speaker 3: This Browns defense is just terrible.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Ravens can hurt you in a lot

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Speaker 2: of different ways offensively, and I think they're going to

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Speaker 2: hurt the Browns badly in Baltimore next Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Big time. Bailey Zappi will talk about him a little

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Speaker 1: later in the show Monday Night Football, Let's Go Tampa Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Carolina did not circle the wagons. I was hoping they

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Speaker 1: would against the Rams. It was close there for a

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Speaker 1: little while, though. I know there's a lot of panic.

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Speaker 1: I could feel, could feel the tension in that building

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter, especially after that that interception for

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Speaker 1: the touchdown. Oh boy, that really felt like things were

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Speaker 1: starting to turn. But fortunately Carolina kind of unraveled here.

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Speaker 1: And speaking of unraveling, Tampa Bay Bucks did not take

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Speaker 1: care of business. All those injuries. Mika Fitzpatrick gout all

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Speaker 1: those things. They go out there to Pittsburgh and they

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Speaker 1: can't get it done. But despite all that on the road,

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Speaker 1: they're still ten point favorites in this game in week seven,

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Speaker 1: forty one is the number. Look pat when you're looking

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Speaker 1: here at Tampa. This is another team at three and

200
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Speaker 1: three that I think has really earned this five hundred record.

201
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Speaker 1: This feels like a smash. It's a double digit game.

202
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Speaker 1: Are we going to get the smash that we think?

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Speaker 2: I'm probably just laying off this one. Ten points feels

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Speaker 2: about right. Don't know what to make of the Panthers.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we get a Sam Darnold start next week, Like

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Speaker 2: Sam is due back pretty soon. I don't know what

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Speaker 2: that would do to this number, but it would certainly

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Speaker 2: make for some interesting subplots. Yeah, Tampa has been maybe

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Speaker 2: not quite as disappointing as the Packers, but they've sprung

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Speaker 2: a few leaks themselves, so I don't feel great betting

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Speaker 2: them as a double digits road favorites. But I can't

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Speaker 2: bet the Panthers either, so I'm probably just gonna walk

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Speaker 2: away from this game.

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Speaker 1: Panthers fans feel like the kid who gets the crappy

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Speaker 1: toy every time they go to McDonald's and the Happy Meal.

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Speaker 1: No matter what happens, they just look in that box.

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Speaker 1: And like Sam Darnald, Baker, Mayfield, p J. Walker, doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter where everything's just going bad. Matthew Friedman, what do

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Speaker 1: you look at in the box when you look at

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Speaker 1: this game?

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Speaker 5: I feel if you're going to take a side, it's

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Speaker 5: Panthers or nothing. I feel like maybe only two teams,

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Speaker 5: maybe three teams in the NFL should have the luxury

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Speaker 5: of being double digit favorites, you know, like the Bills,

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs, maybe the Eagles, but definitely not the Bucks,

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Speaker 5: even if they're going against the worst team in the league.

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Speaker 5: But I do think the Panthers are the worst team

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Speaker 5: in the league. There's still divisional opponents, so you know

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Speaker 5: that adds a layer here, and ten points is just

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Speaker 5: so much.

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Speaker 4: The thing is, we don't even know who the.

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Speaker 5: Quarterback is going to be for the Panthers, and I

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Speaker 5: don't know if that even impacts the line at all

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Speaker 5: with how bad all of these guys have played.

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Speaker 4: But I have this at eight and a half.

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Speaker 5: So that said, like I really don't want to bet

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Speaker 5: on the Panthers, So like I'm not gonna take it.

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Speaker 5: I did bet the under under forty one. I think

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Speaker 5: that's where there's value here because the Buccaneers they are

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Speaker 5: not fully functional even close to it on offense. They

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Speaker 5: do have a very good defense. And again for Panthers,

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Speaker 5: we don't know who their quarterback is going to be,

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Speaker 5: but whoever it is, he's not gonna be helping them

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Speaker 5: score a lot of points. So forty one feels like

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Speaker 5: a pretty high number for two teams that are really

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Speaker 5: underpeak capacity right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a really good piece of advice

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Speaker 1: right now, so look at the under. Another good piece

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Speaker 1: of advice here is to go have some more fun

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Speaker 1: over at Sleeper because they've got that over under game

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Speaker 1: that's going on right now, and you can invite your

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Speaker 1: friends and play against them. And chances are you're playing

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Speaker 1: some leagues on sleep already, So if you haven't already,

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Speaker 1: check out the over under game right now. You can

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Speaker 1: choose two or more players from any sport you like,

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00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,079
Speaker 1: and you can go like rushing yards in a football game.

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00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:54,839
Speaker 1: You can go points in a basketball game. You can

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Speaker 1: do baseball stuff too. There's all kinds of things you

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00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:58,959
Speaker 1: can do. Then you choose the amount of money you

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Speaker 1: want to enter the contest, and if you pick correctly,

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Speaker 1: you can win anywhere from two to twenty times your money.

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Speaker 1: And it's fun because you can go get involved with

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Speaker 1: your friends and send them contests and go ahead and

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Speaker 1: build all that together. But you can only do it

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00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,880
Speaker 1: over at Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. Again, that's

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Speaker 1: Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros and use that promo

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Speaker 1: code Betting Pros when you sign up, because when you do,

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00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:23,000
Speaker 1: you'll get the instant deposit match up to one hundred dollars. Again,

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Speaker 1: you can download the Sleeper app. It's everywhere. It's easy

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Speaker 1: to get and go to Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: Use a promo code Betting Pros when you sign up

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Speaker 1: today and go play some over under have some fun.

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Speaker 1: Let's see if we can have some fun with this

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Speaker 1: next game on the slate here, because it's the Atlanta Falcons,

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Speaker 1: the David to the Goliath out there. Some of these

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Speaker 1: teams of the NFL, who'd have thought the Atlanta Falcons

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Speaker 1: they are still six point hundred dogs. Ooh. Going into Cincinnati,

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati is starting to write the ship a little bit.

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Speaker 1: It feels like in recent weeks, after a really rough

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Speaker 1: start to the season, they are six point favorites at home.

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Speaker 1: The numbers forty five and a half. If you like

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Speaker 1: the Falcons to upset, it's US two twenty on the

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Speaker 1: money line. Now, Matthew Friedman, when you're looking at this one,

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Speaker 1: does this feel like maybe this is actually not a

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Speaker 1: big enough number considering how the Bengals have started to

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Speaker 1: turn things around, or do you think the Falcons have

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Speaker 1: earned the respect here of the six.

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Speaker 5: I'm actually impressed with the Falcons, and there is still

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Speaker 5: a six and a half out there at FanDuel. I'm

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Speaker 5: a little bit angry at myself because you know, Fitz

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Speaker 5: and I we project these games before before Sunday, and

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Speaker 5: so we already have our preliminary projections, and you know,

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Speaker 5: we can compare them to the look ahead line, and

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Speaker 5: the look ahead on this was seven, and I had

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Speaker 5: this at five point seven five, and like, you know,

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Speaker 5: one point two five points difference. That's not a massive difference,

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Speaker 5: but when the number is on seven, that's pretty significant.

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Speaker 5: And I wish I would have just bet it then,

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Speaker 5: because I still have it at five point seven to five.

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Speaker 5: You know, the early line was six and a half.

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Speaker 5: Now it's six at most books. I should have just

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Speaker 5: bet it earlier. But given that it's at six now

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Speaker 5: and I have it at five point seven five, I

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Speaker 5: really don't see any value.

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Speaker 1: Pat how about you d see any value or you

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Speaker 1: kind of where Friedman is?

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Speaker 2: No, I'm kind of where Friedman is. And Friedman mentioned

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Speaker 2: that we do the early projections like before the previous week's.

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Speaker 3: Games are played, and.

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Speaker 2: This week I had a few games where I was

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Speaker 2: pretty much right with where the numbers wound up being,

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Speaker 2: and that was one of the cases here. I had

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Speaker 2: the Bengals as a six and a half point favorite

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Speaker 2: and a forty five point total, So I'm with Friedman

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Speaker 2: like if I had seen it, I didn't even notice

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Speaker 2: that seven point number. Like if I could have gotten

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Speaker 2: it on that key number, I would have loved the

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Speaker 2: Falcons here.

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Speaker 3: But at six and a half, it just feels right.

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Speaker 2: The Bengals, I think their fans would tell you, they

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Speaker 2: have played down to the level of their opponents a

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Speaker 2: little bit this season, so it worries me to have

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Speaker 2: them covering kind of a large number against a team

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Speaker 2: that's been as plucky as the Falcons have been this season.

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Speaker 2: I'm definitely not taking Cincinnati. If you pressed me on

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Speaker 2: this one, I'd play Atlanta, But I'm probably not going

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Speaker 2: to bet this. It stays at six and n and

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Speaker 2: a half or goes to six. As Friedman mentioned, it has.

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Speaker 1: Cooper Rush has taken the Dallas Cowboys about as far

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Speaker 1: as he could probably and it was a heck of

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Speaker 1: an effort, but they came up short against the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: It looks like Dak Prescott is targeting a return this week.

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Speaker 1: In Week seven, the Cowboys stand at four and two.

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Speaker 1: They are at home seven point favorites against the Lions,

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Speaker 1: were coming off a bye, looking their wounds were getting

336
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Speaker 1: shut out. They should be getting healthy two. I'man Ross

337
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Speaker 1: and Brown another healthy week ahead of him, hopefully DeAndre

338
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Speaker 1: Swift as well. So this number is forty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's plus two forty on the money line

340
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Speaker 1: if you like the Lions. But Pat, I imagine this

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Speaker 1: is a good opportunity here for Dak Prescott against a

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Speaker 1: pretty weak defense, to go ahead and put some numbers

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Speaker 1: on the board. Is that forty seven and a half

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Speaker 1: an over in your opinion? And should you bet it now?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 2: I actually like the under here, Joe, and I like

347
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Speaker 2: that more than either side of this game. I just

348
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Speaker 2: think Dak maybe having a little bit of rost, and

349
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Speaker 2: maybe the Lions fix some things on defense during their

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Speaker 2: bye week.

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Speaker 3: I don't know about that.

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Speaker 2: But and then you know, this Detroit offense going up

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Speaker 2: against Dallas. The Dallas defense has been so impressive this season,

354
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Speaker 2: you know, Like I know, the Eagles move the ball

355
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Speaker 2: fairly effectively for much of the Sunday night game this

356
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Speaker 2: past week, but they were not exactly going up and

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Speaker 2: down the field on Dallas, like this is one of

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Speaker 2: the better we all for sure. So I think it's

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Speaker 2: gonna I'm I'm not liking the over here very much

360
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Speaker 2: at all, and I'm inclined to go the other.

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Speaker 3: Way on it.

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Speaker 1: All right, how about you, Freedman, you're looking at this,

363
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Speaker 1: do you think it is all doom and gloom and

364
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Speaker 1: low scoring here is Pat's kind of alluding to. Or

365
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Speaker 1: do you think maybe the defense creates some turnovers and

366
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Speaker 1: Detroit doesn't have to do all that much to help

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Speaker 1: this over go.

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Speaker 5: I'm on Detroit in this spot, and so that you know,

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Speaker 5: leans a little bit more towards the under you know,

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Speaker 5: because I could see a game where Dak Prescott does

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Speaker 5: return but is a little bit rusty. I'm expecting him

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Speaker 5: to return this week, and that was already baked into, believe,

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Speaker 5: baked into the line ahead of time and the look

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Speaker 5: ahead this was minus seven, and I thought, okay, like

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Speaker 5: that means Dak is coming back, And.

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Speaker 4: The early line released was seven.

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Speaker 5: It hasn't moved at all, even though there's enthusiasm that

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00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,320
Speaker 5: Dak is coming back. So I think that was all

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Speaker 5: very much baked into the line here, and that feels

380
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 5: pretty aggressive for a quarterback who has a thumb injury.

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00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:28,720
Speaker 5: His offensive line still isn't all that great. The offense.

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Speaker 5: I know like they've been playing in such a way

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Speaker 5: to kind of shield Cooper rush, but I still don't

384
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Speaker 5: know if that offense is going to be as functional

385
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Speaker 5: as people think it might be when Dak returns. So

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Speaker 5: seven feels like a lot to me. I have this

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Speaker 5: at five and a half. And maybe I'm too low

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Speaker 5: on the Cowboys. Like the thing is, I still have

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Speaker 5: them power rated as the number four team right now,

390
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Speaker 5: so I feel like I'm giving them quite a bit

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Speaker 5: of respect.

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Speaker 4: But I don't know.

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Speaker 5: Maybe I'm overwaiting to buy. But Detroit coming off of

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00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 5: the buy. I think they should be very close to

395
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 5: fully healthy with a mon Ross Saint Brown coming back,

396
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 5: DeAndre Swift coming back. They've had two weeks to plan

397
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Speaker 5: for this game.

398
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Speaker 4: I don't know. I think Detroit is undervalued in this spot.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's see if we can find any value

400
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,600
Speaker 1: with the New York Football Giants, who are five and one. No,

401
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 1: you heard me right, five and one New York Football

402
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 1: Giants against the Jacksonville Jaguars are two and four. The

403
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars, though still at home, three point favorites regardless

404
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 1: of record of these two teams. Forty two and a

405
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 1: half is the number if you like the Giants to continue.

406
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,720
Speaker 1: They're winning ways. Unto Brian Dable, well you can get

407
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 1: it at plus one eighteen. Matthew Friedman, when you're taking

408
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 1: a look at this one, I know it's hard to

409
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,440
Speaker 1: believe in the Giants, But do you believe in the Giants?

410
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:43,600
Speaker 4: Let me see.

411
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 5: I want to make sure I actually see what No,

412
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,680
Speaker 5: because I like I wrote them up like I'm on

413
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 5: this game. I'm just not sure if I actually entered

414
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:56,400
Speaker 5: this bet into our tracker, but I bet it. I'm

415
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 5: on the Giants. In this spot, like one on the Giants.

416
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,280
Speaker 5: L Jones is twelve and four is a road underdog.

417
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 5: I've actually been like, I haven't been impressed with what

418
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 5: they are doing on a play to play basis, but

419
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,439
Speaker 5: I'm impressed with the way that they like keep games

420
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 5: close and then pull it out at the end. And

421
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,679
Speaker 5: the Jags like they're fine. They're not as good as

422
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 5: they looked the first couple of games, but I don't

423
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 5: think that they should be favored in this spot, Like,

424
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 5: I think the Giants are the better team, and I

425
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 5: don't think the Jags have as much of a home

426
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Speaker 5: field advantage as we might think based on the three

427
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Speaker 5: points that they're getting.

428
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Speaker 1: I'll take it a step further. I think the Jags

429
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Speaker 1: are the more talented roster on paper. Yeah, but I

430
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 1: don't think they play better football than the New York

431
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 1: Giants are playing right now in terms of effort level

432
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Speaker 1: at times on both sides of the football. I think

433
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Speaker 1: that's kind of where I kind of where Friedman is,

434
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 1: where I'm leading towards the Giants here, Pat, are you

435
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:52,720
Speaker 1: also on that train where you're looking at what the

436
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 1: Giants have done so far? It doesn't make sense necessarily

437
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 1: when you see the players that they're running out there,

438
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 1: but the level of I would say effort that they're

439
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 1: giving is there, and they're keeping these games close. And

440
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 1: when you win these close games in the NFL, it

441
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,480
Speaker 1: tends to become something that carries over with confidence and

442
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,239
Speaker 1: you start to believe that you're going to win all

443
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 1: these close games and that's a huge mental advantage.

444
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, this defense is actually pretty good, and I think

445
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 2: it's one of the more underrated defenses in the league.

446
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 2: And when you know they get disease Ogulari back, they're

447
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,639
Speaker 2: going to have him and Leonard Williams and Keveon Thibodau upfront,

448
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 2: and that is pretty nasty.

449
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,159
Speaker 3: That's going to be a lot to contend with.

450
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 2: And you mentioned it, Joe, like Daniel Jones, like he well,

451
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 2: he's not giving the ball away. I mean he used

452
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: to be reliable, Yeah right, he used to be reliable

453
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,679
Speaker 2: for like one or two just mind numbingly stupid turnovers

454
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 2: in the past and he has not done that and

455
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 2: that has helped the Giants stay in these close games.

456
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, like, I'm not rushing to bat this one,

457
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 2: but if I were going to bet it, it would

458
00:20:58,960 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 2: definitely be the Giant.

459
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 5: Here's one thing to add into this, though, I slash

460
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,959
Speaker 5: we might be wrong on this, just based on the

461
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 5: early line movement.

462
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 4: You know, it was two two and a half.

463
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,719
Speaker 5: It has moved to three at some books, So it

464
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 5: is moving against us towards the Jaguars, which I just

465
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 5: I think that's wrong.

466
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 4: But I don't know. Maybe it's people just being skeptical

467
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 4: of the Giants.

468
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: I think they're being skeptical to the Giants because I

469
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,959
Speaker 1: think you look at the roster and you look at

470
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 1: the comparison, and you see the same thing I just

471
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 1: laid out, which is there's more talent, there's more offensive

472
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 1: explosiveness beside Saquon Barkley. It's hard to get excited about

473
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 1: the Giants offense. Let's be honest. But as long as

474
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 1: Barkley run the ball and play defense, right at the

475
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: end of the day, that simple formula football still works

476
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:43,919
Speaker 1: in the regular season. It doesn't work necessarily in the

477
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 1: playoffs nowadays in this version of the NFL. But regular season,

478
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 1: that stuff travels, you know, especially that travels defense and

479
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 1: run the football. Let's go to the Colts. Three to

480
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: two one. That's the record for the Colts. They are

481
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 1: two and a half point underdogs heading to Tennessee or

482
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 1: another rematch. Last time these two teams met, Tennessee got

483
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 1: the better of Indianapolis in their building. Now we're going

484
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: to see if they can repay the favor. Forty two

485
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 1: and a half is the number if you like the

486
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 1: Colts on the money line plus one twenty two. So

487
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan and the Colts kind of pulled themselves up

488
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,479
Speaker 1: by the Haunches with Dion Jackson, no Jonathan Taylor. They

489
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 1: got a w against Jacksonville. Does that momentum gary over

490
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 1: here at all for you? Pat Fitzmorris in this game

491
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 1: against the Tennessee Titans.

492
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 2: Oh, man, I feel like you should just skip me, Joe,

493
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 2: Like I cannot get on the right side of the

494
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 2: Colts this year. Like I have no read on what's

495
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 2: going over here.

496
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: Everybody has that one team. I could see that the

497
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: Colts being that for a lot of people.

498
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet.

499
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 2: I bet the Jaguars hard against them yesterday and you know,

500
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 2: got it handed to me. I figured they'd really struggle

501
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 2: without Jonathan Taylor, without Nahem Hines and more importantly without

502
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 2: Shaq Leonard and who else were they missing on defense?

503
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 3: There was some other key oh quitty patty.

504
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, So man, I just like I thought they

505
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 2: would have a really hard time yesterday and they were scrappy.

506
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 3: Like the passing game has not worked for them the past.

507
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 2: Blocking has been terrible, the offensive line's been like shockingly bad.

508
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 2: And you know, they somehow managed to run like what

509
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 2: seventy four offensive plays yesterday and keep the ball in

510
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: their hands pretty much the entire game.

511
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 3: It was a really weird game. Script.

512
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 2: I just like nothing the Colts does is kind of

513
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 2: the way I think it's going to be this year.

514
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 2: Like they've just sort of surprised me at every turn.

515
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 2: So I just like, I don't want to touch any

516
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 2: game involving Indianapolis.

517
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 1: All right, So free event, should we go full George

518
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 1: Castanza here and just go against every good instinct we

519
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 1: have and whatever we think the Colts will be doing,

520
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 1: we should just bet the opposite here.

521
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't.

522
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 5: I don't know with the Colts. I mean, I have

523
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 5: this at one point seventy five, so in theory there's

524
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 5: a little bit of value, but not really like the

525
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 5: difference between that and the two to two and a

526
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 5: half we see in the market as negligible, but I

527
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 5: do think there's value on the under. You know, we've

528
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,479
Speaker 5: got two divisional opponents the numbers forty two, forty two

529
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 5: and a half. We got two divisional opponents who like

530
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 5: to run the ball, and I don't know, I just

531
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 5: neither offense is very good. So this just neither defense

532
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 5: is all that great either. But I think with the

533
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 5: divisional opponents who know each other and have a run

534
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 5: heavy offensive focus.

535
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 4: Forty two is just a little too high.

536
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 1: Now, if you watched or listened to last week's show,

537
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: you know that I was picking on the Green Bay

538
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: Packers a bit and talking about the New York Jets

539
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 1: and that number and all that stuff. Now they went

540
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 1: out and won outright, But if ever there was a

541
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: game here for the Packers to maybe get this this

542
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: air attack of theirs, right, it's the Washington secondary. You

543
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: would imagine this is an opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to

544
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 1: start throwing the football comfortably again. Especially we have an

545
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 1: injury at the quarterback position here with Washington or Wentz

546
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: is going to be out for a while. I get

547
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: Heinikey back in here. So the two and four Washington

548
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 1: commanders are going to be taking on the Green Bay

549
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: Packers at home here in Washington, I point underdogs the

550
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: Packers five point favorites. Forty one and a half is

551
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: the over under. If you like Washington for another upset,

552
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: it's plus one eighty five. But for even this week

553
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: to week league, right, and sometimes we can't get to

554
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 1: invested in what was going on the last week. Yes,

555
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: it was ugly. Yes it's not what you expected if

556
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 1: you had the Packers and you thought that they were

557
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: going to blow out the Jets and handle their business.

558
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: They did not. But I almost feel like this five

559
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,200
Speaker 1: is too small of a number against a team like Washington.

560
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: Do you agree?

561
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:33,439
Speaker 5: No, I significantly downgraded. Finally, it was about time significantly

562
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 5: integrated the past rule.

563
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 1: To do it to you.

564
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 4: Yeah.

565
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 5: And the thing is I had, actually, even with the

566
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 5: preliminary projections that we had going into week six, I

567
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 5: still thought this week seven number was too high. So

568
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 5: and that was when it was seven. So I actually

569
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 5: have Washington plus seven in this spot. But I still

570
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 5: think there's value at five and a half is a

571
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 5: number that you see floating around at at MGM's also

572
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 5: at FanDuel. I think there's value at that number. I

573
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 5: have this at four point two five, so you know

574
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 5: a little bit of value there. If I had to

575
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 5: take a side here, it would be Washington.

576
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: All right, Pat fitz Morris, I'm gonna put you on

577
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 1: the spot here with the Green Bay Packers, But I

578
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: don't know. This feels like a good opportunity for a

579
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 1: get right game and to kind of write the ship

580
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: here for the Packers, because if this isn't then the

581
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: Packers are really headed in a bad direction. The Washington

582
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: Commanders are not a good football team. You're down to

583
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,239
Speaker 1: the second string quarterback, That defense is not played well,

584
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: especially in the secondary. So what do you think about

585
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 1: this number here in this game?

586
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the instinct I almost want to spit

587
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 2: bet on Washington, But I'm not going to do that, Joe,

588
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: because I hear what you're saying, and it wouldn't shock

589
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 2: me if the Packers kind of pulled things together and

590
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 2: blew out Washington, which, as you mentioned, major problems on defense,

591
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: major problems on offense, a backup quarterback. They should never

592
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 2: have covered that Thursday night game against the Bears. I

593
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 2: mean the Bears just throwing an interception at the Washington

594
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 2: five yard failing to punch one in on fourth and

595
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: goal at like the one foot line, because they the

596
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 2: Bears decided to run their two hundred and ten pound

597
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 2: backup running back who just had like a sixty yard

598
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 2: run and was gassed, rather than David Montgomery. Just like

599
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 2: so many ways, the Bears blew that game, and like

600
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 2: the Washington franchise right now, just from the top down,

601
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: not in a good way.

602
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 3: Major problems.

603
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 2: And but you know, the Packers like they can't beat

604
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 2: anyone downfield anymore, which is unusual, which means teams are

605
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 2: playing safeties up and shutting down the running game.

606
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 3: The defense as holes.

607
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: They've got good cornerbacks, but they play zone like ninety

608
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 2: percent of the time, which foggles my mind. Like, I'm

609
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 2: probably just gonna not touch this game, as I do

610
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 2: with a lot of Packers games, because as a Packers fan,

611
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 2: I do not like betting on my team. You know,

612
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 2: sometimes I'll bet against them, but I can't do that

613
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 2: with Washington here, So I'm just gonna walk away and

614
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 2: let Friedman be wrong on the Packers yet again.

615
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna bet it for you. I'm done right now.

616
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 1: And again I'm somebody who's taken the shots at the

617
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: Packers these last few weeks and mostly have been right there.

618
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: But I think this is a game where you just

619
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: it's just outclass. And I think this is when you

620
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: tell those other the young wide receiver group that you

621
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,199
Speaker 1: got Look, you go out there and you go make

622
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: some plays, and you gotta have some confidence. You gotta

623
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: have the ability to make some mistakes here and not

624
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: worry about it, because I think you can afford to

625
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: do that. Against Washington, I feel like that margin of

626
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: error hasn't been there for them, but it will be

627
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: there in this game. Speaking of the New York Jets,

628
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: by the way, who went in and beat the Packers

629
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: in Green Bay, I still can't believe that really happened.

630
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: Four and two are the New York Jets. They are

631
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 1: three point underdogs though against the Denver Broncos. We'll see

632
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: what the Broncos have in store for us tonight. Everyone

633
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: knows I'm done with the Broncos. I'm over it. I

634
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: don't care I need to see it anymore. Forty two

635
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: and a half is the number here if you like

636
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,479
Speaker 1: the Jets, and maybe I do. At plus one thirty

637
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 1: eight heading to Denver. Now, Denver obviously a different environment.

638
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: You always have to deal with the altitude there. The

639
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: Jets are a team that offensively, you're not going to

640
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 1: really push the ball down. It's going to be more

641
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: of a ground and pound kind of attack. The defense

642
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: has played well. Can they take that formula pafits Morris

643
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: and can they take it to Denver? And can they

644
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 1: take it to the Broncos here in this line or

645
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: really look ahea.

646
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: I think they can with the way the Denver offense

647
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 2: has struggled so far, And even though the Jets did

648
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: very little through the air against Green Bay this past week,

649
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 2: it didn't matter because they've got Breece hollwho I think

650
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 2: has had more total yards from scrimmage through the first

651
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 2: six weeks of the season than any Jets since Curtis Martin, Like,

652
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: he's been really impressive. He's been kind of a one

653
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 2: man offense for them in the last couple of weeks,

654
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 2: and a one man offense might be enough against this

655
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:45,479
Speaker 2: Denver offense which has really struggled. So I think the

656
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: line's about right. I think the total is about right.

657
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 2: I don't see really any value on either side here,

658
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 2: but the Jets could absolutely win this game if I

659
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: were going to put a bet down, it would probably

660
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 2: be Jets on the money line.

661
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: I love it, Jets on the money line. Let's go Friedman,

662
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: you gotta join hands with us or you see this

663
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: game differently.

664
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 5: No, I'm I'm on the Broncos and I feel dirty

665
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 5: about it. But and so we're doing this before Monday

666
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 5: night football, so you know, maybe anything we see in

667
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 5: this game could make me hate my bet, you know,

668
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 5: come come tomorrow morning. But I have this at Denver

669
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 5: minus five. And this is maybe more of a sort

670
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 5: of like faith based bet, and you know, sort of

671
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 5: a little.

672
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: What faith and what at this point because it can't

673
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 1: be the coaching, it can't be the quarterback play.

674
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 5: Yes, all of that is fair faith in a couple

675
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 5: of things. The defense is pretty good. I think that

676
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 5: the Jets offense is still a little bit fraudulent, Like

677
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 5: I still haven't seen Zach Wilson go out and really

678
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 5: do it against a good defense. And I do think

679
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 5: the Broncos have a good defense. So you know, the

680
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 5: home field advantage at my high stadium is pretty significant.

681
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 4: I don't know, I'm just not buying the Jets yet.

682
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 5: Maybe maybe after they go in to uh to mile

683
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 5: high and get the win outright, then I'll have more

684
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 5: respect for them.

685
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 4: I just I kind of don't have a lot of

686
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 4: respect for him right now.

687
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: Did you think the Green Bay Packers defense was good

688
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: coming into the year, Because certainly on paper.

689
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 5: I did think it was good. It's that it's not good.

690
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 5: It hasn't played well.

691
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: But I thought they were a good talented unit.

692
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 3: Yes, But can I just say something, Yeah, sure, I

693
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 3: was just gonna say.

694
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 2: I mean, the Jets passing game is one hundred percent fraudulented,

695
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 2: but they still have an offense now because of Breece

696
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: Hall and like Michael Carter is a reasonably good backup.

697
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: Like they've thrown one touchdown pass Zach Wilson has in

698
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 2: the three games since he's been back, and they've won

699
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 2: all those games.

700
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 3: Like it's it's that's not sustainable.

701
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 2: I know it's not, but like Breece Hall is sustainable,

702
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 2: Like he's generating enough offense for.

703
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: The what's sustainable, Sauce Gardner sustainable. And I don't think

704
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: we talk enough about quitting Williams in the front what

705
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: he's been doing. And we're not, I mean we're really not.

706
00:31:58,320 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: I mean the IDP show, we talked about it, which,

707
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: by the way, we have the IDP show over in

708
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pro side for those of you who play.

709
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: But we were talking about how difference maker he is

710
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 1: and when you have a shutdown corner, how that allows

711
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: you to get those cover shacks. It allows you to

712
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 1: do a lot more things. And if you could take

713
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: away Courtland Sutton in this game from the Denver Broncos.

714
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: That's been the biggest bugaboo for Russell Wilson is finding

715
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: other receivers. He has this tunnel vision that I've seen

716
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: all year for one wide receiver. On one play, his

717
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: head does not swivel, his head does not move, and

718
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 1: it was in full effect against the last week in

719
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 1: the Thursday Night football game when you saw kJ Hamler

720
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: completely wide open. He never even looked another way. All

721
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: he saw was Sutton, and all Sutton saw was Stefan Gilmore.

722
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: And I just don't know when that changes, and until

723
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: it does, I'm concerned about the Broncos. I'm concerned also

724
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: about the Las Vegas Raiders. At one and four, they

725
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: are seven point favorites tier against the Houston Texans, who

726
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: got their first win and took a week off. They

727
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: said go take a week off. Everybody, great job. We'll

728
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 1: come back in two weeks and we'll play again. Forty

729
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: four is the number plus two forty five in the

730
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: money line for the Houston Texans plus three hundred for

731
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raids. So the Raiders are heavy favorites here, Friedman.

732
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: But that just kind of feels talk about dirty, talk

733
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: about uncomfortable, the Raiders being a heavy favorites period, just

734
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: full stop. That worries me. Does this line worry you?

735
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 5: I have it at seven and a half, actually, so

736
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 5: given that it's sitting at seven, I maybe should be

737
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 5: betting it. But as you say, like it's the Raiders,

738
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 5: I don't have I don't have a lot of optimism

739
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 5: with them. And the thing is like, in theory, the

740
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 5: advantage that they should have coming off of the buy

741
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 5: is negated because they're going against another team coming off

742
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 5: of the bye. So it's like, it's not like, what's

743
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 5: the point of the bye week, it's just that they

744
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 5: have no edge.

745
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 4: They're having rested for fourteen days.

746
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 5: So I don't know, seven and a half it feels

747
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 5: like a little bit too much and I don't have

748
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 5: enough faith in it to bet it all.

749
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: Right, how about you, Pat? When you look at this

750
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: game with the Raiders, seven, it's a pretty big number

751
00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 1: for a team that's one and four and play the

752
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: way they have, especially on defense.

753
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 2: It is but this is actually the best I've felt

754
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: about a Raiders defense in a long time. Like, I

755
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 2: think this is a fairly respectable if not like good defense,

756
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 2: it's at least respectable. And they are versatile on offense,

757
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 2: like they have really gotten that running game going with

758
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs lately, and certainly DeVante Adams has added a

759
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 2: new dimension to their passing attack. It's weird, like DeVante's

760
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: catch rates and yards per target way down, but man,

761
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: he gives them a big play dimension that they didn't

762
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 2: necessarily have before. So, like I think the numbers right, Joe, seven,

763
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right, That's what I had projected

764
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 2: it at. I think there might be a little bit

765
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 2: of value in the under here though, because I do

766
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 2: have respect for this Raiders defense, and I still think,

767
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 2: you know, the Houston offense is a little under man

768
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: like Damian Pierce has been good for them, but still

769
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 2: not much of a passing game there. So I think

770
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,280
Speaker 2: the total is maybe a point too high.

771
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:02,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like the Raiders are a team path

772
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: that are going to get better as the season goes on.

773
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: It's just how bad are they in the beginning in

774
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 1: terms of record, where it doesn't matter, like you gotta

775
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 1: take care of business, like you got to be Houston

776
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 1: at home. Here's a very simple game here. You got

777
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 1: to take take care of your business.

778
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 2: Friedman got me on the Raiders under for their season

779
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 2: long win total, and I'm glad they've gotten off to

780
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 2: this slow start because like this is a team that's

781
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 2: maybe a little better than I thought they were going

782
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:30,359
Speaker 2: to be. Freedman pointed out some scheduling obstacles they have,

783
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 2: how they are actually you know, set up in kind

784
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 2: of a bad way. Maybe the NFL league office still

785
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 2: hates Al Davis and doesn't want to give the Raiders

786
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: any favors with scheduling. But Friedman pointed out that they

787
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 2: have kind of a treacherous path this season. So you know,

788
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 2: I'm glad that they've lost some close ones otherwise that

789
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 2: that might not be looking that great right now.

790
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,800
Speaker 3: I think it was what was it, Friedman eight and eighty. Yeah,

791
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: So I don't know, they're they're better than I thought

792
00:35:58,719 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: they were going to be.

793
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're gonna be dangerous though, if they ever start

794
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 1: to put it all together here and there's a lot

795
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 1: of new pieces, you know, do you know Devonte Adams

796
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: who had coached there's some newness there still that still

797
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,479
Speaker 1: has got to come together. The Los Angeles Chargers three

798
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 1: and two home favorites by seven over the Seattle Seahawks,

799
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 1: who are five hundred team right now, three and three.

800
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 1: The number for this one is fifty two. Seattle on

801
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 1: the money line is plus two to fifty. Now, Pat,

802
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: if you like this game for offense, are you over

803
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 1: this fifty two?

804
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: Probably not gonna play the total here, Joe, Okay, I'm

805
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: more inclined to play Seattle, which you know, they've been

806
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 2: so unexpectedly proficient on offense this season, and then we

807
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,479
Speaker 2: actually saw the defense show up in Week six again

808
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 2: get Cardinals, and like, I don't know what to make

809
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 2: of the Chargers.

810
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 3: I don't think.

811
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: They're as good after that lost to the Chiefs on

812
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: Thursday night in what we two, Like I thought the

813
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 2: Chargers look like a super Bowl caliber team in that game,

814
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 2: like they uh, you know, kind of I've had firepower

815
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 2: on both ends ever since that game. Things have sort

816
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: of crumbled for them a little bit, and I just

817
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 2: don't have the same feeling I had about them.

818
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 3: Injuries are part of it, but I don't know.

819
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 2: I think a touchdown might be too much in this one.

820
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 3: I kind of like the points with Seattle.

821
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 1: Are you the same mind, Freeman?

822
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've already bet Seattle plus seven. I will say, though,

823
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 5: I have this projected at fifty four point seven, which

824
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 5: just feels ridiculous and I hate that number, and given

825
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 5: the under environment that we've seen, but there's no way

826
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 5: I feel like I can bet it.

827
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 4: But that is the projection. I mean, Seattle has allowed.

828
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 5: A ton of points minus whatever we saw yesterday with

829
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 5: the Cardinals, but they've allowed a ton of points this year.

830
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 5: The Chargers have been more of an over team as well.

831
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 5: So I do have this projected with significant value to

832
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 5: the over. But I just kind of want to go

833
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 5: in and manually change that projection because I'm not buying it.

834
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 1: All right, Let's see, we're buying the San Francisco forty

835
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: nine Ers. They are three point home underdogs to the

836
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come to town of dropping

837
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: that tough game to the bills where they had it

838
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 1: and lost it at the end. Forty seven is the

839
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: number on this one. If you like San Francisco to

840
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: win its plus one thirty five on the money line.

841
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 1: How do you see this one an early look at

842
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: Is there any value at all in your opinion, Freeman

843
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs or San Francisco?

844
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 4: Yeah?

845
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 5: I have this projected at two and a half and

846
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 5: the you know, in the look ahead it was one

847
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 5: and a half. In the early line, it was two

848
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 5: and a half, and now it's moved to three. So

849
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 5: you know, in theory there's some value on San Francisco

850
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 5: here as an underdog like Jimmy Garoppolo as an underdog

851
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 5: historically has done well. But it is such an injured

852
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 5: San Francisco team right now on both sides of the

853
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 5: ball that I don't think you can take them. And

854
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 5: if I had to take any side on here, it

855
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 5: would be Kansas City.

856
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 3: All right?

857
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: How about you? Pat Fitzmorris, do you see it the

858
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 1: same way?

859
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 2: No, I'm not taking Kansas City anym. They've hurt me

860
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 2: too badly the last two weeks, so I'm not gonna

861
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 2: be on them. And I had this one projected as

862
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 2: Kansas City is a one point favorite, so I do

863
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 2: see some value with the forty nine ers, but as

864
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 2: Friedman said, they've got some injury issues, so I'm not

865
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 2: going to bet the early line until we get a

866
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 2: little more clarity on some of those injuries. Yeah, and

867
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 2: the total seems about right, but man, I don't love

868
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 2: Kansas City going on the road and covering the three too,

869
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,319
Speaker 2: being right on that key number, Like if this moves down,

870
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe you do.

871
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 5: You like San Francisco enough to where you think if

872
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 5: it hits three and a half you're betting it.

873
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 3: I would bet them at three and a half.

874
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I don't know if this I'm skeptical this

875
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 5: would hit three and a half. But I mean if

876
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 5: you like San Francisco at one, I think go ahead

877
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 5: and take them at three. You know, like their injury

878
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 5: issues aren't going to get worse, Like that's already baked

879
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,760
Speaker 5: into the line, and maybe they get better, like maybe

880
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 5: they get Bosa back this week, maybe they start to

881
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 5: get some of their players back, so that might be

882
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 5: something to factor into it. Like if you like San

883
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 5: Francisco threes, I mean, as you say, like they're at

884
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 5: home they're a good team.

885
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 4: I don't know if it's going to get better than three.

886
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I don't hold that loss to Atlanta against

887
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 2: them that much. I mean it's a West Coast team

888
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:29,280
Speaker 2: going out east playing an early start game. We often

889
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: see those teams kind of stumble like that, So I'm

890
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 2: not I don't know, I feel like that is being

891
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 2: held against the forty nine ers with this line, and

892
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 2: I like, I don't consider that like a horrendous loss

893
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 2: for the forty nine ers.

894
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 3: I'm sure their fans do, but you know, we see

895
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 3: slip ups like that all the time.

896
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,720
Speaker 5: I think also part of what's going into this line

897
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 5: is some maybe like kind of newfound respect for the

898
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 5: Chiefs because like people were really on the Bills entering

899
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 5: that game, and the Chiefs were right there.

900
00:40:58,960 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 4: Like the Chiefs.

901
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 5: I wouldn't say that like they lost the game versus

902
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 5: the Bills winning it, but like they showed like, at

903
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 5: least in my opinion, like they showed that. I was

904
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 5: like impressed with both of those teams coming out of

905
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:10,879
Speaker 5: that win.

906
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 1: I was like also had some more opportunities, Like is say,

907
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 1: Mackenzie had a couple key drops in that game, And

908
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 1: I think I think the Bills could have the Bills

909
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 1: could have been the Bills that people were anticipating. There

910
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 1: were a couple of moments where they didn't take advantage

911
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 1: of those opportunities. But the Chiefs, to their credit, didn't

912
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 1: lay down. They kept fighting. They were in this game.

913
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 1: They had the lead in the last couple of minutes

914
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: of the game. Like everything that you expected from the

915
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: Chiefs in their peak was there. But I think what

916
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 1: showed is that that big playmaking ability to Tyree Hill

917
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: not being that offense. It hurts this offense. It hurts

918
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 1: their ability in those games against teams like Buffalo that

919
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 1: was lacking for sure. I mean, Juju had a couple

920
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: of moments, but you know, maybe if somebody makes the

921
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,879
Speaker 1: right tackle. We don't have those moments for Juju. Let's

922
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 1: get to a game that I think is terribly difficult.

923
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, I think this is the most

924
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 1: difficult one on the slate. Miami Dolphins theoretically getting to

925
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: a back. We think they are seven point favorites. Again,

926
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 1: it's the Pittsburgh Steelers who just won at home against

927
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 1: Tom Brady the Buccaneers. Forty four and a half is

928
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: a number the Steelers are plus two forty on the

929
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: money line. Friedman, I don't know what to do with

930
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,280
Speaker 1: this game. What do you make of this one?

931
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 5: I have Miami as a seven point seventy five favorite,

932
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 5: So you know, given that this is at seven, there's

933
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 5: you know, a little bit of value there being able

934
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 5: to get it on the key number, and I have

935
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 5: bet it at seven. I did bet it on the

936
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 5: look ahead because I assumed the too would be coming back.

937
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 5: I don't know if there's much of a difference between

938
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 5: Kinny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky in terms of like the

939
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 5: quarterback situation for the Steelers, to be honest, So I

940
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 5: don't know if that factors too much into the number,

941
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 5: But I do think that this should be above seven,

942
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 5: all right, Pat, Do you see it the same way?

943
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 3: Not at all.

944
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 2: I kind of see it the other way that, Like

945
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 2: I've got this at Miami by five. I have a

946
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: little more respect for Pittsburgh and think, well, there's some

947
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 2: ambigie a quarterback, Like we don't know if Kenny Pickett

948
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 2: is going to be able to play next week, but

949
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:10,400
Speaker 2: like I think this offense is it's got more teeth

950
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 2: than maybe it had at the beginning of the season,

951
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 2: and you know, part of that is renewed life in

952
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 2: the passing game, and we saw Chase Claypole kind of

953
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 2: spring to life last week. Three very good wide receivers,

954
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 2: like I think they're capable of scoring with Miami, and

955
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,800
Speaker 2: Miami's past defense is pretty terrible, quite frankly.

956
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 1: So.

957
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, like, I don't know, I have too much respect,

958
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 2: I think for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh, and maybe that's

959
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 2: a too much respect for a team that hasn't necessarily

960
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: always earned it this year, but this just feels like

961
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 2: too big a number to me, all.

962
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 1: Right, Last one on this late the Chicago Bears a

963
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 1: two to four head to New England. New England is

964
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 1: seven and a half point favorites at home. We still

965
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 1: have quarterback uncertainty in this game as well a lot

966
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: of games where you don't know exactly who is going

967
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 1: to be under for those teams. But regardless, New England

968
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 1: seems to be playing very good defense these last few weeks.

969
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,720
Speaker 1: Great game against the Cleveland Browns, a very good performance

970
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 1: in Green Bay a few weeks ago in a shutout

971
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: against the Lions. In between, thirty nine and a half

972
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: is the over under for this one, Pat, what do

973
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 1: you think of this number? Seven and a half? It's

974
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 1: a big number for New England, not a prolific theoretical offense,

975
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 1: but from a defensive standpoint and the lack of offense

976
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 1: in the Chicago side. Do you think this is a

977
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: comfortable number?

978
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:26,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, you've said it, Joe.

979
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 2: It does seem like a big number, especially for a

980
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 2: game with what a thirty nine point total, So you know, like, I.

981
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: Hate that is what they're telling you one right right.

982
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: And it might be that the Chicago offense has certainly struggled.

983
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 3: The weird thing is, Joe, like, I like New England much.

984
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 2: Less at this number if Mac Jones comes back, Like

985
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: I think, if Mac Jones comes back at seven and

986
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 2: a half, I might put a little something on the Bears.

987
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 2: If it's Bailey Zappy again, I think I'll probably just

988
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: walk away because this line seems right. But I'm kind

989
00:44:59,960 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 2: of of anticipating Mac Jones comes back this week, and like,

990
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, I think if Mac Jones does come back,

991
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 2: there's going to be some rust. I think we're going

992
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:14,959
Speaker 2: to see yet another solo primetime Ugly Monday or Bears game,

993
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 2: Like can we get the Bears off of primetime please,

994
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,919
Speaker 2: Like this is their third prime time game already, Oh

995
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 2: my goodness. Like I know, I know you want to

996
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 2: do it early in the season before their record is

997
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 2: trash and and you know no one wants to see

998
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 2: them and wall or whatever. But I mean, for the

999
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 2: love of God, like they're they're losing viewers here, this

1000
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: is bad.

1001
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:36,360
Speaker 3: Get the Bears off at primetime?

1002
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 4: All right?

1003
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: How about you here, Friedman? What do you see in

1004
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: this contest?

1005
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 5: I have it at six point seventy five, So in theory,

1006
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 5: you know, under the seven, given that you're you're having

1007
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 5: the hook here, like there's value there, But I just

1008
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 5: I don't trust it. I am factoring in mac Jones

1009
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 5: plane in this number.

1010
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 4: I don't know. I think it's Bears or nothing for me,

1011
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:01,280
Speaker 4: and it's probably nothing.

1012
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: Airs are nothing, all right, Freed, But let's stick with you.

1013
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 1: Give me a favorite three look ahead week seven wagers

1014
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 1: that you want to lock in now before the line

1015
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: start moving?

1016
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 4: Okay, if only I said it about it?

1017
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 1: Please?

1018
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, gee, it's it's very weird because

1019
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 5: I felt like I had a good read on things

1020
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 5: last week. I had had a couple of kind of

1021
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 5: like mediocre, like break even weeks, and then last week

1022
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 5: was good. I had a seven and three week, and

1023
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 5: this week I just don't feel as good about it

1024
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 5: as I did last week. But I you know, I

1025
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:37,760
Speaker 5: still like Lions at plus seven on the road in Dallas.

1026
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:41,280
Speaker 4: I do like the Lions there. I still like the Ravens.

1027
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 4: Here's the thing I hate.

1028
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 5: I kind of hate being like the square like oh,

1029
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 5: I like the home favorite, you know, with like the

1030
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 5: Ravens here with a large number. But I still like

1031
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 5: the Ravens at minus six as home favorites going against

1032
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 5: a Browns team that I think is is floundering and

1033
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 5: hasn't had any record of success within division.

1034
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 4: So I like that. And then one.

1035
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 5: More here I will I will say the under in

1036
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay Carolina under forty one. I think that is

1037
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 5: a that is a bet that I probably like the

1038
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 5: most out of all of the totals because I just

1039
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 5: don't see either of these teams really putting up a

1040
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 5: lot of points.

1041
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 1: Fitz Morris, what tickles your fancy here in the early

1042
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 1: look ahead for week seven?

1043
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm very much with Friedman on the Ravens here,

1044
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 2: especially coming off the bad loss like the Browns defense

1045
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 2: has just been absolute trash and I'm kind of surprised

1046
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 2: this line is what it is. I'm going to take

1047
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 2: the Ravens. That's a confident four star play for me

1048
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 2: this week, which is the kiss of death.

1049
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 3: Of course.

1050
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 2: You know, I'm going to join the Twitter mob with

1051
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 2: their torches and pitchforks on Thursday nights, and I'm going

1052
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 2: to take a pitchfork, and I'm going to bet the

1053
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 2: Saints getting points against an Arizona team that should not

1054
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 2: be favored against, you know, almost anyone, much less a

1055
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 2: fairly spectable Saints team. So I'll take the Saints. Theren Man,

1056
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take this Pittsburgh game. I'm gonna have to

1057
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 2: take a second look if Friedman is that different from it.

1058
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 2: I certainly respect Friedman's acumen on these things, and if

1059
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 2: we're like two and a half, what two point seventy

1060
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 2: five points apart, I'm gonna have to take a closer look.

1061
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 2: But as of now, I kind of like Pittsburgh as

1062
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 2: a road dog in Miami.

1063
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 1: All Right, we'll all re examine our acumens throughout the

1064
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: week and we'll see how lines move, and of course,

1065
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 1: stay up to date with everything over at bettingpros dot

1066
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 1: com for all of the latest in terms of the

1067
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: news and notes of what's going on in the betting world.

1068
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 1: Do I have college football as well? Make sure you

1069
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel as well. Betting Pros is

1070
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 1: on the YouTube. If you don't know, click that little

1071
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 1: bell for notifications when you sign up. Make sure you

1072
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: do that, and don't forget to go out there and

1073
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 1: play that over undergame. It's available on Sleeper right now.

1074
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 1: That's again can be found at Sleeper dot app slash

1075
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: betting Pros and use that promo code betting Pros when

1076
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 1: you sign up to get that one hundred dollars deposit match.

1077
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: And that'll do it for us. But the story of

1078
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 1: the game goes on on for Pat and Matt. I'm

1079
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time kids. M