1
00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:04,439
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Crows PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris

2
00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:07,240
Speaker 1: here with Bau mcbrair. It's a big week on the

3
00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,440
Speaker 1: PGA Tour with the Players Championship. We will have a

4
00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,080
Speaker 1: full betting preview for you. We're also going to quickly

5
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,800
Speaker 1: recap the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Puerto Rico Open.

6
00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:19,880
Speaker 1: We'll share our Players Championship betting cards with you and

7
00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 1: we will give you a couple of one and done

8
00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,400
Speaker 1: picks at the end of the show. Russell Henley wins

9
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,560
Speaker 1: the Arnold Palmer Invitational outdueling Colin Morikawa at bay Hill.

10
00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,120
Speaker 1: It was not looking good for Henley midway through Sundays round.

11
00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,600
Speaker 1: He entered the final day one shot behind Marikawa. Henley

12
00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,120
Speaker 1: was two over par through ten holes and had fallen

13
00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,440
Speaker 1: three shots off the pace. The momentum started to shift.

14
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:46,680
Speaker 1: On the par three fourteenth hole, Henley birdied it, Marikawa

15
00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,199
Speaker 1: boged it, so Moricawa's lead was cut to one and

16
00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:53,080
Speaker 1: then came the par five sixteenth hole. Maricawa had a

17
00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,160
Speaker 1: rare poor drive and was forced to lay up rather

18
00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,160
Speaker 1: than go for the green and two. Henley was in

19
00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,400
Speaker 1: great position off the tee but missed the green to

20
00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:04,000
Speaker 1: the right side, short sighting himself, leaving a tough chip,

21
00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,720
Speaker 1: but Henley hold that chip for an eagle. Marikawa settled

22
00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,319
Speaker 1: for a par, and suddenly Henley had a one shot lead.

23
00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,120
Speaker 1: Henley made a nervy five and a half foot putt

24
00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,440
Speaker 1: to save par in the par three seventeenth, and then

25
00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,280
Speaker 1: after Marikawa saved par in the eighteenth by dropping a

26
00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,679
Speaker 1: nine footer, Henley calmly rolled in a three foot par

27
00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,400
Speaker 1: putt for the win. Corey Conners finished two shots back.

28
00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,600
Speaker 1: He was in the hunt all weekend but just couldn't

29
00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,920
Speaker 1: make enough birdies on Sunday, didn't get his first one

30
00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,560
Speaker 1: until the sixteenth hole. Michael kim lurked around. He's been

31
00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,440
Speaker 1: playing really well. Keegan Bradley shot an eight under par

32
00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,240
Speaker 1: sixty four on Sunday to get close to the lead,

33
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,400
Speaker 1: but he had shot himself kind of out of it

34
00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,280
Speaker 1: with the seventy six on Saturday. I cashed a Russell

35
00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,400
Speaker 1: Henley ticket bow. I love betting Russell Henley in Florida.

36
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:50,800
Speaker 1: Didn't work out at the Cognizant Classic, but it worked

37
00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,480
Speaker 1: out at Arnold Palmer's place. I didn't think anyone had

38
00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,480
Speaker 1: a chance to beat Marikawa with the way he played

39
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,960
Speaker 1: on Saturday. Quite honestly, I mean, he was so dialed

40
00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,120
Speaker 1: in with his ball. It was just an absolute clinic

41
00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,320
Speaker 1: shot of sixty seven on Saturday felt like it could

42
00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,120
Speaker 1: have been even lower than that. And it certainly seemed

43
00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,720
Speaker 1: if Sunday was gonna be Morikawa's day, especially when he

44
00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,680
Speaker 1: had a rare miss with an approach shot on the

45
00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,720
Speaker 1: first hole and then sank his bunker shot for a birdie.

46
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,320
Speaker 1: But it was not to be for mister Morikawa. Your

47
00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,720
Speaker 1: shots ball on the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

48
00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the tale of Calin Morikawa the last two years.

49
00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:30,480
Speaker 2: He hasn't won on the PGA Tour since twenty twenty three.

50
00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,280
Speaker 2: He hasn't won in the United States since even before that,

51
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,680
Speaker 2: so it's it's been a tough go of it. A

52
00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 2: long string of top tens. I believe that's ten top

53
00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,239
Speaker 2: tens now in a row for Morikawa without a win.

54
00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,400
Speaker 2: So he's still an amazing world class golfer, just hasn't

55
00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,240
Speaker 2: quite gotten across the finish line. He's still young. It

56
00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,520
Speaker 2: reminds me a lot of Xanderschoffley until he won the

57
00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,960
Speaker 2: PGA last year. You got a great golfer who can't

58
00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,240
Speaker 2: seem to quite push for the win, especially in these

59
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,959
Speaker 2: tougher tournaments with great fields. But I love bay Hill.

60
00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,440
Speaker 2: I love bay Hill. That golf course is brutally tough,

61
00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:11,840
Speaker 2: but it's fair and even with the golfers complaining that

62
00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,160
Speaker 2: the fourteen stemp meter greens were too fast when it

63
00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,160
Speaker 2: was windy on Thursday, somebody put on a forecast on

64
00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,680
Speaker 2: Sunday that it was calling for even higher winds that

65
00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:23,560
Speaker 2: didn't come to fruition. It turns out they were looking

66
00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,240
Speaker 2: at the wrong day's weather report, so it was very

67
00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,760
Speaker 2: mild on Sunday. We saw some really good scores and

68
00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:33,360
Speaker 2: we saw some blow up holes, which is pretty much

69
00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,120
Speaker 2: as status quo for Bayhill as it gets. So I

70
00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:40,520
Speaker 2: really enjoy the Arnold Palmer Invitational every year. It's always

71
00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 2: a good week for me betting wise. Even though I

72
00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,960
Speaker 2: didn't cash on the Arnold Palmer, I did end up

73
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,400
Speaker 2: with some very nice luck at the Puerto Rico.

74
00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, there was another tournament to talk about, since the

75
00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,120
Speaker 1: Arnold Palmer was a signature event with a small and

76
00:03:56,200 --> 00:04:00,200
Speaker 1: exclusive field. Carl Villips when the Puerto Rico opened by

77
00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:04,480
Speaker 1: three shots over Rasmus neerguard Peterson Phillips finished twenty six

78
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 1: under par. Just a terrific tournament for Phillips in Puerto

79
00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,760
Speaker 1: Rico and Bo, yeah, you had mentioned him on this

80
00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,200
Speaker 1: show as a compelling sleeper, so you did indeed make

81
00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:15,000
Speaker 1: some money on him.

82
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,080
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we went with the full ladder all the

83
00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,680
Speaker 2: way from outright to top twenty. Connor and I from

84
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,960
Speaker 2: the nineteenth told we're really We've been on Phillips for

85
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 2: a year and a half now as an up and

86
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,840
Speaker 2: coming star. He was the first non Tiger Woods named

87
00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,120
Speaker 2: athlete to be endorsed by Sunday Red Brand, and we

88
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:35,960
Speaker 2: could tell for it's for good reason. This guy is

89
00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,960
Speaker 2: a golf prodigy. He's been around the game in the

90
00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,360
Speaker 2: in the periphery for about ten years and he's finally

91
00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,200
Speaker 2: on the PGA Tour, his fourth PGA Tour start at

92
00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,320
Speaker 2: the Puerto Rico Open, and we pretty much guaranteed that

93
00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:51,840
Speaker 2: he was gonna win. We went out there like Joe

94
00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,359
Speaker 2: Namath on Tuesday Show saying, it doesn't matter who you

95
00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,000
Speaker 2: bet on at the Puerto Rico Open, just make sure

96
00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,560
Speaker 2: you bet as much as you want as possible. On

97
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,120
Speaker 2: Carl Phillips, because he was going to win, and he

98
00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:06,760
Speaker 2: won by three, very convincing, nearly a wire to wire finish.

99
00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,640
Speaker 2: His outright number that I got him at was sixty

100
00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:11,760
Speaker 2: five to one. I saw others that got him as

101
00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,600
Speaker 2: good as eighty to one. But we also laddered him

102
00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,680
Speaker 2: top five, top ten, and top twenty, so they all won.

103
00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,279
Speaker 2: And if he had parlayed that, which you can't because

104
00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,480
Speaker 2: it's all in the same golfer, it would have been

105
00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,600
Speaker 2: like a thousand to one payout. But we did the ladder,

106
00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:28,520
Speaker 2: and we won the ladder. And it's a good villain

107
00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,360
Speaker 2: because now we're flushed with cash to put on the players.

108
00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,279
Speaker 1: Yes, sir, and Phillips punches his ticket to the Masters. Yes,

109
00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,640
Speaker 1: and he will be in the field this week at

110
00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:42,520
Speaker 1: the Players Championship. We will get into the Players Championship

111
00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:43,760
Speaker 1: odds in just a moment.

112
00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:48,040
Speaker 2: But first, download the free Betting pros app for iOS

113
00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:52,320
Speaker 2: and Android with sportsbooks Sink automatically track your bets across

114
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:56,560
Speaker 2: all major sports books in one spot. Easily monitor your

115
00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:00,520
Speaker 2: bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props,

116
00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:05,080
Speaker 2: and parlays. Create custom betting systems to find winning trends

117
00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,599
Speaker 2: and profitable opportunities. Get a free trial at Betting Pros

118
00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,400
Speaker 2: Premium by downloading the app at bettingpros dot com slash

119
00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,839
Speaker 2: apps and activating your trial on the upgrade screen.

120
00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,800
Speaker 1: Now I've said we would get into the odds, but

121
00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,080
Speaker 1: that is putting the cart before the horse. Let's talk

122
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:24,200
Speaker 1: about the course a little bit first. Bo As always,

123
00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,960
Speaker 1: the Players Championship will be contested at TPC Sawgrass in

124
00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,559
Speaker 1: ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, which is in the Jacksonville area.

125
00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:34,680
Speaker 1: It's a par seventy two covering seven three hundred and

126
00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,080
Speaker 1: fifty two yards. It's a peat Die course. Some might

127
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,559
Speaker 1: say it's the consummate Pete Die course, so we should

128
00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,719
Speaker 1: probably be on the lookout for players with good track

129
00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,760
Speaker 1: records on Pete Die courses. And this is another PGA

130
00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,560
Speaker 1: Tour signature event, so there's a big purse for this one.

131
00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:52,840
Speaker 1: Unlike the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, this is a

132
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,080
Speaker 1: full field events with one hundred and forty four entrants

133
00:06:56,120 --> 00:07:00,159
Speaker 1: and a standard Friday cuts. TPC Sawgrass not long, but

134
00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,880
Speaker 1: there is trouble all over the place. There's water on

135
00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,320
Speaker 1: all but one hole, and of course water comes into

136
00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:09,000
Speaker 1: play prominently on the signature par three seventeenth hole with

137
00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,280
Speaker 1: its island green. There's also water all down the left

138
00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,040
Speaker 1: side on the eighteenth hole that makes for an interesting finish.

139
00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,640
Speaker 1: TPC Sawgrass has numerous bunkers. The fairways are narrow, so

140
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,119
Speaker 1: there are going to be a lot of holes where

141
00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,160
Speaker 1: players keep the driver in the bag. And oh yes,

142
00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:29,160
Speaker 1: let's not forget about the topography. TPC Sawgrass has moonscapes

143
00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,720
Speaker 1: in some spots with mounds and hollows that can complicate

144
00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:36,520
Speaker 1: matters for players who hit aaron shots. As with Bayhill,

145
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,800
Speaker 1: TPC Sawgrass is a second shot golf course. Precision approach

146
00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,560
Speaker 1: shots are key and it helps to be a good scrambler.

147
00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 1: We're getting Bermuda greens once again. We saw blazing fast

148
00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,080
Speaker 1: greens as you mentioned bo at bay Hill last week.

149
00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,120
Speaker 1: We're likely to get speedy greens once again on Sawgrass.

150
00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:54,880
Speaker 1: Doesn't seem like there's been a lot of rain in

151
00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:58,240
Speaker 1: Florida lately, so it should be playing firm and fast.

152
00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,240
Speaker 1: Temperatures are expected to be in the mid seventies for

153
00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,640
Speaker 1: most of the tournament, with partly cloudy skies possibly some

154
00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,800
Speaker 1: scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. The wind is expected to blow

155
00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,679
Speaker 1: five to ten miles an hour Thursday, ten to fifteen

156
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,160
Speaker 1: miles an hour Friday, fifteen to twenty five miles per

157
00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,760
Speaker 1: hour Saturday, and then ten to twenty on Sunday. If

158
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,440
Speaker 1: indeed we get that sort of wind, we're gonna see

159
00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:25,440
Speaker 1: some big numbers posted at the Players Championship. Scotty Scheffler's

160
00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,200
Speaker 1: the two time defending champion. He finished twenty under par

161
00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:32,120
Speaker 1: last year, one shot better than Xanderschoffley, Brian Harmon and

162
00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,440
Speaker 1: Wyndham Clark. Scotty shot in eight under par sixty four

163
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,439
Speaker 1: on Sunday to grab the tournament by the throat. Scotty

164
00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,040
Speaker 1: also won in twenty twenty three. That was a runaway.

165
00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,959
Speaker 1: Scotty was seventeen under power, five shots better than runner

166
00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,320
Speaker 1: up Tyrolhatton. Cameron Smith won here in twenty twenty two,

167
00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,800
Speaker 1: finishing thirteen under. Justin Thomas won in twenty twenty one

168
00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,959
Speaker 1: he was fourteen under, and in twenty twenty the Players

169
00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:58,000
Speaker 1: Championship was canceled midway through due to COVID bow In theory,

170
00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:01,400
Speaker 1: this is a different tournament for Better's. We get all

171
00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,959
Speaker 1: sorts of crooked numbers and scorecard volatility makes things kind

172
00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,840
Speaker 1: of hard for us, but Scotti Scheffler has really taking

173
00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,240
Speaker 1: the randmness out of the players Championship betting the last

174
00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,880
Speaker 1: couple of years. We'll table the Scotty conversation for a moment,

175
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,880
Speaker 1: but give me your take on TPC Sawgrass and what

176
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:19,440
Speaker 1: it will take to contend.

177
00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,960
Speaker 2: It's another wholebag test. But the main golf club that

178
00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:25,520
Speaker 2: the guys are gonna have to use on a Pete

179
00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,320
Speaker 2: Die course is the one between their ears. Pete Dye

180
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:32,400
Speaker 2: is known for warping your mind and giving you kind

181
00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,920
Speaker 2: of dysmorphia about how the course looks where your landing

182
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,839
Speaker 2: areas are. There are a lot of sightline tricks that

183
00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,959
Speaker 2: Pete Die plays with the trees and the contouring of

184
00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,600
Speaker 2: the fairways where the landing spots aren't as narrow as

185
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 2: they appear, and it's still important to find the fairway.

186
00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:53,080
Speaker 2: But if you miss the fairway here, you're really looking

187
00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:56,319
Speaker 2: to avoid double bogie, especially if you're in one of

188
00:09:56,360 --> 00:10:00,040
Speaker 2: the water hazards or in the bunkers, because the the

189
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,160
Speaker 2: greens are very undulating. The golf course is tough, but

190
00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,840
Speaker 2: it's also fair in the way that if you're playing

191
00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,480
Speaker 2: good golf, you can see twenty under par. You can

192
00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:11,960
Speaker 2: see twenty two under par at a tournament like this

193
00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,319
Speaker 2: where if you're playing well, this golf course has very

194
00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,880
Speaker 2: little teeth because if you're in play, you're gonna make birdies.

195
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,040
Speaker 2: This golf course will give you birdies if you're playing

196
00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,840
Speaker 2: good golf. If you're a little bit off, though, it

197
00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,640
Speaker 2: goes the other way pretty quickly. This is a big

198
00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:32,480
Speaker 2: golf course that doesn't have the yardage to back that up,

199
00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,600
Speaker 2: but it forces players to use their whole bag and

200
00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,720
Speaker 2: to think their way around eighteen holes at a time.

201
00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,079
Speaker 2: It's basically you're gonna be looking for mentally strong golfers

202
00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,120
Speaker 2: who are also very accurate and can dial in yardages

203
00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,680
Speaker 2: on approach as approaches everything here, and then if you're

204
00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,880
Speaker 2: a little bit wayward on approach, that's having an amazing

205
00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,840
Speaker 2: short game is going to be essential here.

206
00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's one of those courses FO where you

207
00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,560
Speaker 1: do not get a lot of consistency and results over

208
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,520
Speaker 1: the years. I mean, we've seen Scotty win two years running,

209
00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,440
Speaker 1: but other than that, like there are very few players

210
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,200
Speaker 1: who haven't missed a cut here at least once in

211
00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:17,000
Speaker 1: their last five appearances. Even some of the top players,

212
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,240
Speaker 1: even Scotty himself. I believe yeah, missed a cut not

213
00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:23,320
Speaker 1: long ago. So well, let's get to the odds. All

214
00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,600
Speaker 1: odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday morning, and

215
00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:30,480
Speaker 1: we'll start with the favorites. Scotty Scheffler heavy favorite at

216
00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:34,680
Speaker 1: plus three sixty. Rory McElroy is eight to one, Sanders

217
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:38,240
Speaker 1: Schoffley and Colin Morricaw are sixteen to one, Ludwig Oberg

218
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 1: and Justin Thomas are twenty to one, Hideki Matsiyama and

219
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,679
Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood are thirty to one. Patrick Cantley is thirty

220
00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,800
Speaker 1: five to one, and Shane Lowry and Russell Henley are

221
00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:52,240
Speaker 1: forty to one. Obviously, bo the conversation starts with Scotty,

222
00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,200
Speaker 1: the two time defending champ. How do you feel about

223
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:56,439
Speaker 1: him at plus three sixty.

224
00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,080
Speaker 2: I mean, it's too short for what we've seen from

225
00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,679
Speaker 2: Scotty so far this season. I'm not about to He

226
00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 2: was the first player to ever win here back to back.

227
00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:07,800
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any chance he wins back to

228
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,040
Speaker 2: back to back. But if he is going to win,

229
00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,160
Speaker 2: it's not gonna be me betting him at plus three

230
00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,080
Speaker 2: sixty or this morning, I found him at plus four hundred.

231
00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,960
Speaker 2: It's still too short, especially in this level of field.

232
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,360
Speaker 2: The competition is as good as it gets at the

233
00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,439
Speaker 2: Players the original signature event that's always had the highest

234
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,840
Speaker 2: payout for the winners. Perse this tournament brings all the

235
00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,600
Speaker 2: big dogs, and not all of them play well here.

236
00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,840
Speaker 2: Scotti Scheffler winning back to back. He hasn't finished inside

237
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,400
Speaker 2: the top forty in any other appearance here, so it's

238
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,520
Speaker 2: just you never know what you're gonna get. The players

239
00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:45,960
Speaker 2: is volatile, and so if Scotty is within five of

240
00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,679
Speaker 2: the lead or six of the lead entering a Sunday,

241
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,000
Speaker 2: I might live bet him at maybe twelve to one

242
00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,319
Speaker 2: or fourteen to one to kind of make a comeback

243
00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,200
Speaker 2: charge like he did last year. A final round sixty

244
00:12:56,200 --> 00:13:00,640
Speaker 2: four is gonna win a lot of times the players,

245
00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,320
Speaker 2: So Scotty, if he's within range, I'm willing to do

246
00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,320
Speaker 2: the live betting on him because he's just so good

247
00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 2: coming back from anywhere in the field. But my card

248
00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,600
Speaker 2: starts with Xander Schaffley eighteen to one for that quality

249
00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:17,520
Speaker 2: of player. He came out really rusty his first round

250
00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,160
Speaker 2: of the season since the century with the rib injury.

251
00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,120
Speaker 2: He comes out there at bay Hill and has to

252
00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,720
Speaker 2: deal with the toughest conditions they've seen on door all year,

253
00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,960
Speaker 2: and he was in danger of missing his first cut

254
00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,240
Speaker 2: in fifty seven starts. What did he do? He went

255
00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,360
Speaker 2: out there on Friday and he went low so he

256
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:38,080
Speaker 2: could make the cut. And so Xander Schaffley for me,

257
00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 2: as good as he is through the bag with irons

258
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,680
Speaker 2: and approach in short game, he's where I start my card.

259
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,320
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any trouble with betting him at

260
00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:50,439
Speaker 2: such a long number. And then Justin Thomas, the course

261
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,000
Speaker 2: history here speaks for itself. This is one of the

262
00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,280
Speaker 2: guys who has had no trouble making cuts at Sawgrass

263
00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,720
Speaker 2: despite all the tribulations he's had elsewhere on tour. Justin

264
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 2: Thomas renaissance year is here at twenty twenty five, and

265
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,319
Speaker 2: to get him at twenty to one is an absolute bargain.

266
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, jt one here in twenty twenty one, Three top

267
00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:12,760
Speaker 1: tens in his last five starts at Sawgrass, although he

268
00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,960
Speaker 1: did finish at disappointing thirty sixth last week at Bayhill.

269
00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 1: But you're right, Bo, he's been in really good form shofly,

270
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 1: I guess it's just do you need the prove it

271
00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:26,320
Speaker 1: tournament from Xander before you bet him? The problem is, yeah,

272
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,120
Speaker 1: you're not going to get him at these types of

273
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,160
Speaker 1: odudurey if you wait for that prove it tournament. So yeah,

274
00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:32,520
Speaker 1: it's probably a good time to jump on.

275
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:34,800
Speaker 2: He proved it to me when I watched his Friday round,

276
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 2: bouncing back after a really kind of a just a

277
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 2: crappy run around the golf course. It was brutal. I

278
00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:43,080
Speaker 2: felt bad for him on Thursday because that's his first

279
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:46,800
Speaker 2: round of the serious season they's starting, coming off an injury,

280
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,600
Speaker 2: and he has to deal with conditions where some guys

281
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:50,240
Speaker 2: couldn't even break eighty that day.

282
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was tough. And Xander had not played since

283
00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:58,200
Speaker 1: the season opening century in the first week of January,

284
00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 1: so it had been a while. Got rid of the

285
00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:05,000
Speaker 1: russ pretty quickly on Friday. So Rory McElroy won here

286
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,600
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen, but hasn't finished better than nineteenth in

287
00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 1: any of his last four trips to Sawgrass. I just

288
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:12,920
Speaker 1: don't like him at eight to one bow, I.

289
00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 3: Just don't play.

290
00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:14,680
Speaker 2: Isn't good enough for here?

291
00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely not. So Morikawa has played here four times

292
00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,280
Speaker 1: He finished forty first in twenty twenty one, missed the

293
00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:25,840
Speaker 1: cut in twenty twenty two, was thirteenth, and twenty twenty

294
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,920
Speaker 1: three forty fifth. Last year, I don't really care that

295
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,960
Speaker 1: the track record isn't great. His ball striking was so

296
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,560
Speaker 1: good last week at Bayhill that I kind of want

297
00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,200
Speaker 1: to bet him on sawgrass bow. I mean, his distances

298
00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,840
Speaker 1: were so dialed in on his approach shots it was.

299
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:46,560
Speaker 1: It was impressive to see Ludvig Oberg finished eighth here

300
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:51,040
Speaker 1: in his Players Championship debut last year. Won a few

301
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 1: weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational Torrey Pines. He's very interesting.

302
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 1: Hideki Matsuyama fifth and sixth in his last two trips

303
00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 1: to Sagrass, four top tens here in his last seven trips,

304
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,640
Speaker 1: and he has five top twenty fives in seven starts

305
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 1: this season. Who else but Russell Henley terrific on Bermuda

306
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 1: plays well in Florida one last week, finished sixth the

307
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,160
Speaker 1: week before. He said two top twenties in his last

308
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,480
Speaker 1: three trips to Sagress. I just don't like betting guys

309
00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,120
Speaker 1: coming off a win. So I'm getting off the Russell

310
00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:25,880
Speaker 1: Henley train after being a board in first class the

311
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 1: last two weeks, and one guy I've also been betting

312
00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 1: bo Shane Lowry, was kind of in the hunt this

313
00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,720
Speaker 1: past week at bay Hill, finished seventh, tapered off a

314
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,880
Speaker 1: bed on the weekend. He's finished top twenty at the

315
00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 1: Players Championship three the last four years. And if we

316
00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 1: do get this wind that we're seeing in the forecast,

317
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:48,720
Speaker 1: that could certainly work in his favor.

318
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it certainly could. Going back to Morikawa, I just

319
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 2: don't think his shirt game can hold up this Pete

320
00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 2: Die golf course. It presents a different type of challenge.

321
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,320
Speaker 2: And what we've seen from more at this golf course

322
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,360
Speaker 2: is that even the slightest wayward approach shot, which he's

323
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,080
Speaker 2: not very prone to have, but we saw a couple

324
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 2: squarely approach shots on Sunday at bay Hill that doesn't

325
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:15,359
Speaker 2: play it sagrass. You miss your spot, and it's not

326
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,199
Speaker 2: just hitting the green, it's hitting your spot on the

327
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,240
Speaker 2: green to get a good score. At Sawgrass, I just

328
00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:23,520
Speaker 2: don't think if he misses his spots like he has

329
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,199
Speaker 2: in the past at Sawgrass, his chipping has been so

330
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 2: bad and his putting is not great either. This is yeah,

331
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,920
Speaker 2: Morikawa better be dialed in from tee to green because

332
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,639
Speaker 2: the rest of his game has not supported and it

333
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 2: enough to push it across the finish line. I just

334
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,800
Speaker 2: don't know if I could ever bet Mori Kawa here,

335
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:46,199
Speaker 2: especially when he's still probably hurting pretty bad about what

336
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 2: happened on Sunday. True, and Oberg is interesting. I really

337
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 2: do think Oberg could play here. I mean seeing his

338
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,520
Speaker 2: first appearance of the players, where traditionally guys really have

339
00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,600
Speaker 2: no clue how to play a Pete Die golf course

340
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 2: like that. Of course, he's cool, calm and collected, smiling

341
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,239
Speaker 2: around and finishing top ten just ho hum, roll out

342
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 2: of bed, play the players for the first time and

343
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 2: finish top ten like nobody does. Ever, like usually it

344
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 2: takes three or four times, getting too sagrass to even

345
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 2: figure out how the golf course is laid out and

346
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 2: where you're supposed to play the ball.

347
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was very impressive last year, what Oberg was

348
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,719
Speaker 1: able to do in his sawgrass debut. Let's look at

349
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 1: some more odds this time for some of the mid

350
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,880
Speaker 1: range plays. Kegan Bradley and Sung J. M are both

351
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 1: fifty to one. Wyndam Clark and Sam Burns are fifty

352
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 1: five to one. We have a big group at sixty

353
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 1: to one with Maverick McNeely, Jason day, Tony Finow, Corey Connors,

354
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 1: Seawoo Kim and Septstraka. Victor Hobland and Daniel Berger are

355
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,880
Speaker 1: sixty five to one and at seventy to one are

356
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 1: Min Wu Lee, Jordan Speith, will Zlatoris, Tom Kim and

357
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 1: Robert McIntyre. Any interesting mid range options.

358
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,640
Speaker 2: BO, there's two guys I have circled. One guy has

359
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:02,640
Speaker 2: immaculate course history. That's Wyndam Clark, runner up last year.

360
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,360
Speaker 2: Fifty five to one. What the way he's playing right

361
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 2: now pretty insulting that this guy's a top ten golfer

362
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 2: in the world and for him to get fifty five

363
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 2: to one odds at a place where he very nearly

364
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 2: won last year. If not for Scotty Final Round sixty four,

365
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 2: we could have been talking about Wyndam Clark winning multiple

366
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 2: tournaments last year if not for Scotty Scheffler. Wyndam Clark

367
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 2: at Sawgrass is a really nice match because where he

368
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily get the best off the tee numbers, it's

369
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of forced layups. His approach game

370
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 2: has been really good, and a world class short game,

371
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 2: especially putting for birdies, putting for saving bogies or saving pars.

372
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,840
Speaker 2: Wyndham Clark is absolutely live here. He's kind of the

373
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 2: perfect storm of golfer that's aggressive but also has the

374
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 2: short game to back up when he win his aggression

375
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 2: goes wayward, he seems to get out of trouble very well.

376
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 2: So fifty five to one Wyndam Clark and another North

377
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 2: Florida guy that has be playing great golf, maybe not

378
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 2: necessarily great golf here, but Daniel Berger sixty to one

379
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,280
Speaker 2: is definitely on my card that this guy is kind

380
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 2: of knocking on the door this year or too, regaining

381
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,199
Speaker 2: some of that form. And he's another guy who's not

382
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 2: necessarily great off the tee, but he's a great approach

383
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 2: player and again a very very strong scrambling and short game.

384
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 2: So Daniel Berger right there on my card. Those two guys,

385
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 2: Wyndham Clark Daniel Berger, they kind of have the most

386
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 2: attention on my card so far.

387
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, Berger is a guy who should always be in

388
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 1: consideration on the Florida courses. A Bermuda specialist, he's kind

389
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: of in the Russell Henley phylum in that regard, both

390
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 1: Seawow Kim just like always plays this course well. For

391
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 1: some reason, we.

392
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 2: Talked about Pete die Assassin.

393
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 1: He is the Pete diss and we talk about the

394
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 1: lack of consistency for even top guys at this tournament.

395
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: But Seawoo Kim won the Players Championship in twenty seventeen,

396
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: sixth the last year. He's quietly posted fourth straight top

397
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: twenty fives this year, so he's pretty interesting in that

398
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 1: big group at sixty to one. Kegan Bradley, coming off

399
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 1: the strong showing at bay Hill, just on fire on

400
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 1: the front nine on Sunday, fell off a little bit

401
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 1: on the back. But his track record kind of a

402
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 1: mixed bag at Sawgrass seventh here in twenty eighteen, fifth

403
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, but he's also had some miss cuts.

404
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: Bo talk me out of Victor Hobland. He was top

405
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 1: ten here in both twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three,

406
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: but his form is a mess right now. He's missed

407
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 1: the cut in each of his last two events. But

408
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 1: man if we get good, Victor Hoveland here sixty five

409
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 1: to one.

410
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, the wishing and the wanting with Victor Hoblin's getting

411
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 2: kind of old for me because he just can't put

412
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 2: right now. This is the guy who's already been embattled

413
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 2: with his chipping and that has been average, but his putting.

414
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 2: He lost five strokes in a couple rounds last week

415
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 2: just on the greens. Losing five strokes putting in any

416
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 2: round on the greens is atrocious and definitely not up

417
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 2: to his standards. If you can't chip and putt at sawgrass,

418
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 2: you're not worth any time or any investment at all.

419
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,360
Speaker 2: So I'm more likely to take the wait and see

420
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 2: approach with Hovland at this point than I am with

421
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 2: somebody like Xanderschoffley.

422
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 1: I'll mention a few other guys real quickly. Brian Harmon

423
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 1: not your favorite player Bowl, but he is another guy

424
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: who plays Pete die courses pretty well. His lack of

425
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: distance doesn't really become that much of an issue on

426
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 1: Pete die courses. Harmon was second here last year. He

427
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 1: was in that three way tie behind Scottie and third

428
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Jason Day, who's been in good form.

429
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 1: He won here in twenty sixteen and has had some

430
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 1: other top ten finishes at the players big stepstrak a

431
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 1: bowl pair of top twenties at Sawgrass over the last

432
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 1: three years, and he is in good form, having finished

433
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 1: eleventh and fifth in the first two events of the

434
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 1: Florida Swing. What about long shots, Oh, who's on your radar?

435
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 1: Eighty to one or longer?

436
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 2: Right off the top as a guy who I never

437
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 2: thought would slip this far after a really stormy like

438
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 2: last year or so, Sahi Thigala plays really well here

439
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 2: with his short game and putting. His approach game has

440
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 2: been a little off kilter. His off the tea game

441
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 2: has always been kind of the killer for him. But

442
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: Sahi Thigala kind of the forced layup type model where

443
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 2: if you're like, hey, this guy is going to take

444
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 2: more irons off the tee because it's positional golf, Thigala

445
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 2: has the rest of the bag to kind of overcome

446
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 2: where it's like, oh, everybody's kind of be hitting in

447
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: the same areas of the fairway. If he can find

448
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 2: fairways with irons off the tee, please knock on wood.

449
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 2: Thigala will do that because the rest of his game

450
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 2: can score here. He's showed up a couple times really

451
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 2: well on courses like this so ninety to one for

452
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 2: Thigala has my attention. Another guy who has everything in

453
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 2: the back except for putting, Lucas Glover. Another guy who's

454
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: extremely aggressive, one of the best ball strikers on tour,

455
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: just can't seem to find a hot putter very often.

456
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: This is the kind of place where he's it's kind

457
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: of equalized, where one hundred and fifty to one bet

458
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 2: you can still see a guy like that pushing the

459
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 2: top of the leaderboard with his ability to make birdies.

460
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 2: And I do have Joel Damon at one seventy because

461
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 2: he has a great approach game and he's been rolling

462
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: like Joel Damon by his standards. This is a kind

463
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 2: of a top thirty to top fifty guy on tour.

464
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 2: He seems to be playing firing on all cylinders again

465
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: this season after really bad last year. He had a

466
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: great twenty twenty three season which got him on full swing,

467
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 2: and then last year when everybody was watching him on

468
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 2: full swing, he kind of just fell apart. He's back

469
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 2: in business. Deep shot. You ready for a deep shot?

470
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 2: Hit me in the vein of Carl Phillips and Joe

471
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 2: Heismith and all the other guys that we've mentioned. There's

472
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 2: another guy who I expect to win on the PGA

473
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 2: Tour very soon. I don't know that it's this week.

474
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 2: Could be very surprising with the way this field is built.

475
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: But Patrick Fishburne is going to be a name that

476
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 2: you're going to want to keep in mind. Three hundred

477
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 2: to one at this tournament, but I want you to

478
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: pay attention to where he finishes, he what he does

479
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 2: at a golf course that fits his game like this one.

480
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 2: This guy is an immaculate short game. Patrick Fishburn's short

481
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: game is fantastic. And if he can get around this

482
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 2: golf course in an efficient manner and avoid the blow

483
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 2: up holes that everybody seems to find here in their

484
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 2: first trip, that's that's a guy that I'm paying close

485
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 2: attention to this week.

486
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: Fishburn made some noise earlier in the season. He was

487
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: sniffing the lead in a few tournaments. So, yeah, that's

488
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: an interesting college. You said three hundred to one for

489
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 1: fishburn That is tempting. I want to ride this Michael

490
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 1: Kim wave following. This dude is on fire. He has

491
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,959
Speaker 1: finished thirteenth, thirteenth or better in five straight events, starting

492
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: with a second at the Field Open. Just finished fourth

493
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: at bay Hill with a very nice showing on the weekend.

494
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 1: He looks like a value at eighty to one, even

495
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: in a field as good as this one, also checking

496
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 1: in at eighty to one Aaron Raye. He's done okay

497
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: in his first two Players Championships, with the nineteenth and

498
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three at thirty sixth last year, he was

499
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: fourth at the Mexico Opened a couple of weeks ago,

500
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: eleventh at the Arnold Palmer. Matt Fitzpatrick is one hundred

501
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 1: to one. He's had some pretty good showings here top

502
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: tens and two of his last four trips to the

503
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 1: Players Championship. Finally showed a pulse last week at bay Hill,

504
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: finishing twenty seconds. I just don't know. I need a

505
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: little bit more momentum before I jump on fits at

506
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 1: one hundred to one. Christian Bazutenhut one hundred to one.

507
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 1: He's finished thirteenth at Sagres each of the last two years,

508
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 1: and he's been in decent form this year. I just

509
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: I don't know bout with him sitting outside the top,

510
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 1: I think one twenty in strokes gain on approach shots.

511
00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: It's just not a good trend and one more Nikolai Hoyguard.

512
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: You know how I like this dude Bowl missed the

513
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: Cutting his Players Championship debut a year ago, but it

514
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 1: just seems like he's an awfully good player to be

515
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: sitting at one fifty to one. Yeah, So all right,

516
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 1: let's put our money where our moles are. Let's get

517
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: to the early betting cards. Who is on yours?

518
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 2: Well, you might have gathered from so far in the

519
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 2: show that I'm painting this week with a very wide brush,

520
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: that has nothing to do with my recent success. I'm

521
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 2: bank rolling in this tournament the same way I would

522
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 2: either way, but I'm going to hold out hope for

523
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 2: an opportunity to bet Scottie Scheffler live. But until then,

524
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to have Xander Schoffley at eighteen to one,

525
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: Justin Thomas at twenty to one, Wyndham Clark at fifty five,

526
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 2: Daniel Berger at sixty, Saki Thigala at ninety, Lucas Glover

527
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 2: at one hundred and fifty, Joel Damon at one hundred

528
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 2: and seventy, and Patrick Fishburn at three hundred. We're not

529
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 2: going big money on any of those guys except for

530
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 2: the top three, Xander JT and Windham are gonna get

531
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 2: my heaviest investments dollar wise, because of course they're more confident,

532
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 2: and I want to make sure that we get a

533
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 2: nice paintbrush on the favorites. But these long shots, I'm

534
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: just gonna throw five ten bucks on them outright. Top

535
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 2: twenty bets are good too, especially if getting good odds

536
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,959
Speaker 2: on players that could push the lead. Is get in

537
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: the top ten and top twenties in there just with

538
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 2: a few bucks to get some action on. This tournament's

539
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 2: gonna be really fun to watch you and if you

540
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 2: don't have skin in the game, But since we do,

541
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: we're gonna have a lot of people to sweat and

542
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 2: tilt over.

543
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: Now, Bo, you make a great case about Colin morikawaan

544
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: his short game, but I just I have to play

545
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 1: him the way I watched him hit the ball on

546
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: Saturday and for much of Sunday. So he's sixteen to one,

547
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: I've got him to win. Shane Lowry outright at forty

548
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,719
Speaker 1: to one, with a top five kicker at seven to one.

549
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: If Lowery disappoints me this week, I'll be off the

550
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: Lowry train for good. Seawoo Kim I'm not betting him outright,

551
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 1: but i will take him for a top five at

552
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 1: ten to one and a top ten at plus four

553
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: to fifty as track record is just so strong at Sawgrass.

554
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: Victor Hovland Bo, You're right, it's probably not smart to

555
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: grab him with his recent form, but no one has

556
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: ever accused me of being smart, so I'm gonna take

557
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: him out right at sixty five to one. Michael Kim,

558
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: I've got it eighty to one with the top ten

559
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: kicker at six to one, and I'm putting a little

560
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: something on Nikolai Hoyguard at one fifty to one. Now

561
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: for our one and done competition, I had Tommy Fleetwood

562
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 1: last week. He finished eleventh, good for four hundred and

563
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: fifty one thousand, two hundred and fifty dollars. Bo. You

564
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: took Sam Burns. He tied for forty eighth, good for

565
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 1: fifty six thousand. You are up first this week. Who

566
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: are you taking for the Players Championship?

567
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 2: I'm going with Justin Thomas JT.

568
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: BO. We are burning big guns.

569
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 2: Well it's big. It's a big money tournament. It's a

570
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 2: big money tournament it is.

571
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 1: I'm pulling Scottie out of the bag this week.

572
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: It crossed my mind. It crossed my mind.

573
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is. It's just too tempting. I know the

574
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 1: three peat odds might not be great, but.

575
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 2: The money is. You know he's gonna be up there

576
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 2: making good money for you.

577
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: That's exactly it. And it's just such an unpredictable tournament.

578
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 1: The one guy I feel like we can safely pencil

579
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 1: in for like a top ten, I'm gonna I'm gonna

580
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: seize that opportunity.

581
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 2: The odds of him making a top ten are quite negative.

582
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: Yes they are. Yes, That's not something I'll be looking

583
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: to bet.

584
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: It's interesting because you know where I'm gonna play, Scottie,

585
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: and that's an Augusta yes, sir.

586
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 1: That will do it. For this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast.

587
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: We will be back next week to preview the final

588
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: leg of the Florida Swing the Valspar Championship. Until then,

589
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: so long everyone.

590
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

591
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

592
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

593
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 3: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros, and

594
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL also subscribe to our YouTube

595
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com Slash Betting Pros