1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,319 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Taylor, I've been saying, 7 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: you know, you know, during this pandemic, thank goodness for 8 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: the smart and hard working people in the biotechnology industry 9 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: and the pharmaceutical industry that delivered these vaccines so quickly 10 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:35,959 Speaker 1: to the world. I mean, boy, they really did their job. 11 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: And then of course the global supply train trying trying 12 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,319 Speaker 1: to get those vaccinations out across the globe. The one 13 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 1: of the questions is, Okay, how about the biotech and 14 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: farming industry post pandemic. How do we think about that? Well, 15 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,919 Speaker 1: Nina Decca, she joins us. She's the senior research channels 16 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: for Robo Global. Ninia, thanks so much for joining us here. Again, Boy, 17 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: the biotech and the farming industry they get a lot 18 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: of heat from some people. Generally spe you can hide 19 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: drug prices, things like that. But boy, they really delivered 20 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: during the pandemic. As an investor, how do you think 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 1: about that space in a post pandemic world. Hi, Yeah, 22 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 1: and thanks for having me on the show today. Um 23 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: you I mean you bring up some great points with Maderna. 24 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 1: The fact that they were able to so quickly bring 25 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: a therapy through UM the clinical trial process and into 26 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 1: human beings within a year is really unprecedented. And one 27 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: thing I will say upfront is that when you look 28 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: at the investment opportunities, uh, it's not what Maderna did 29 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 1: last year that makes them a strong investment. It's what 30 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 1: they've been doing for the last decade. They built a 31 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: platform ready to go. They accumulated massive amounts of data 32 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: through their technology and AI capabilities over the last decade 33 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: that really enabled them to put together this therapy so quickly. 34 00:01:56,560 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: What they did with the COVID vaccine is of that 35 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: their technology platform works. And by by building up front 36 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: this this platform, they're really creating UM something that can 37 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 1: be used at scale to make many other therapeutics. So 38 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: several really cool things have happened. One, they proved mRNA 39 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: can work in human beings and it's very safe and 40 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: effective and now that the world accepts m RNA is 41 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: a viable course of treatment, there are many other therapies 42 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: at least fixteen other drugs that Maderna alone has in 43 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:36,119 Speaker 1: the pipeline in clinical trials as we speak. But they've 44 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,399 Speaker 1: been working on for a while. So now that we've 45 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: got one m RNA through, it's only a matter of 46 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 1: time before a lot of the other ones come, and 47 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: Maderna very well positioned for that trend. I want to 48 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: shift here is a little bit here and think about 49 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:53,839 Speaker 1: virtual doctor visits in the post pandemic world. Am I 50 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: used to seeing my doctor over zoom? Or do I 51 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 1: want a physical checkout? I mean, the really up to 52 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: the consumer. I think we're seeing more and more that 53 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: the millennials and younger are open to continuing to stay 54 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: at the office or or stay at home wherever they are, 55 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: and just have that doctor visit online or on the 56 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: phone wherever possible. Um You're still going to have some 57 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: meeds where you're going to need to go in person, 58 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: but by and large, a lot of other um UH 59 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: indications and specialties in the healthcare world have taken place virtually, 60 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 1: and I think that that's here to stay and it's 61 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 1: only going to grow, for example, or the pedic um 62 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: physical therapy remote O b d Y and appointments can 63 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: even be remote. So Nina, is there any concern in 64 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: the biotech or farming industry that you know, this big 65 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 1: focus we've had over the last eighteen months on COVID 66 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: has maybe taken resources away from some other areas that 67 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: maybe now have been under invested or lagging a little bit. 68 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: How how do investors think about that? It's it's not 69 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: necessarily a concern. It's well, all right, if you think 70 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: about healthcare in general, let's a concern. Think about the 71 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: number of people who didn't go in for a cancer 72 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: screen like colonoscopy last year because of the pandemic. So 73 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: there's definitely a backlog of um undetected illnesses if you will, 74 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: that are are sort of waiting to be discovered and 75 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: then treated. So it's it is a medical concern for 76 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: society in the world. But in terms of investors, if 77 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: you think about the number of purchases that didn't take 78 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: place last year because resources were reallocated towards dealing with 79 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 1: the pandemic, those budgets are back and now a well 80 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 1: positioned to buy things like the robotics, if you will, 81 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: or the the lab automation instrumentation UM that people were 82 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: waiting to buy before the pandemic. So those budgets are 83 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 1: coming back and you're seeing that UM A lot of 84 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: these companies and surgical robotics and lab automation UM are 85 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 1: are are at numbers or above and we're going to 86 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: see now in Q two earnings, we're waiting to see 87 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: how utilization is climbing back up to pre pandemic levels 88 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 1: and we should expect to see some of those non 89 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,840 Speaker 1: COVID related capital purchases back. Interesting. Interesting, Nina Decca, thank 90 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us senior research analysts at 91 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: robo Global getting a sense of kind of these healthcare stocks, 92 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 1: healthcare and biotech stocks investing. Again, the focus has been 93 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: so much on this pandemic over the last eighteen months, 94 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: and uh, it'll be interesting to see with these you know, 95 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 1: quarters earnings, how these companies, to the extent that they 96 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: were really involved with the COVID vaccines kind of pivot 97 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: a little bit back to perhaps some of the other 98 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: business lines as well. In terms of investment. I want 99 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 1: to talk about SPACs right now. Tom Keane's favorite topic. 100 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: Hopefully he's listening in. Uh. You know, boy, you think 101 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: about the spack special purpose acquisition companies, just really the 102 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: rage in terms of new issuance late one, they seem 103 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 1: to have faded a little bit. Some folks are questioning 104 00:05:58,120 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: was that kind of a mark of the top of 105 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: the mark? It is a little bit passe. Where are 106 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: we in this back cycle? Fortunately, we have our next 107 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: guest who can help us think about that. Mark us Go. 108 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: He's a chief executive officer and chief investment officer from 109 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 1: Morgan Creek Capital Management. Uh. Mark, thanks so much for 110 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 1: joining us. Give us a sense. Just let's step back feet. 111 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: What is your view of the spack market right now? No, 112 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 1: I appreciate you having me on. And look, I I 113 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: think we are are really just getting warmed up in 114 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: the sense of you know what SPACs are, And I 115 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: think part of the problem is there's just a lot 116 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: of confusion about SPACs. And basically SPACs are a process 117 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: of going public. Uh. Spack is raised as a blank 118 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 1: check company. It has an I p O. And then 119 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: it basically sits in cash and treasuries during a period 120 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: until the sponsor finds a company to merge with. The 121 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 1: company then merges with the spack and then becomes a 122 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: post your combined entity. And yet people conflate the terms. 123 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 1: They talk about you know, Virgin Galactic or DraftKings as 124 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: a SPAT. No, those are companies. They were SPACs. I 125 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 1: POE was a spack and and diamond Eque Acquisition Corps 126 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: was a SPAC. But once you merge with the company 127 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: or an operating company going forward and you said somethingsing 128 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: we first started about spects fading, well, they faded for 129 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: about six weeks in the sense of you know, last 130 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: year about fifty per cent of I p O s 131 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: were spects um and if you look in terms of dollars, 132 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: it was actually more than that because the average SPAC 133 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: is a little bit bigger than the average I p 134 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,239 Speaker 1: O and there's some information content in there. The larger 135 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: than is the higher the quality. If you look at 136 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: the first quarter, it was kind of crazy about seventy 137 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: of all I p O s or spects. That was 138 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 1: too fast, So the SEC kind of tapped the brakes, 139 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: said they were going to threatened to change the accounting 140 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: rules on warrants. Actually didn't do it, but that created 141 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: a six week period where spacks felt about of new 142 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: issuance for I p O s. Now they're right back 143 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 1: to I think that's where we're gonna equilibrate at about fiftyah. 144 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: You know, let me ENTERGECT quickly because you mentioned the SEC, 145 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: and I am curious how you respond to critics of 146 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: SPACs who say, even as recently is today we're getting 147 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: headlines about SEC investigations into potential conflicts of interest. Now 148 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: they're looking at bank fee conflicts. How much of that 149 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: is a headwind? I think, look, um, the I p 150 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: O process has been i'll say broken for a long time. 151 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: It's a bad process. It hurts the average investor. It's 152 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: basically a walled garden for the wealthy clients of the underwriters. 153 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: And the fact that you know, one out of every 154 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 1: two high growth innovative companies now is migrating to a 155 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: SPAC mergers as opposed to an I p O that 156 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 1: clearly potentially hurts the incumbents. And so those incumbents have 157 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: very strong lobbying groups and perhaps they put some pressure 158 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: on the SEC too, try to tap the brakes. I 159 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: think I think it's a lot of bluster, you know, 160 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 1: the threat on changing the accounting rules on warrants was 161 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,559 Speaker 1: a distinction without a difference. It had no cash impact. 162 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: And you know, incumbents always fear disruption, and they will 163 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: always use fund fear, uncertainty and doubt to try to 164 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: slow that disruption. But the end of the day, if 165 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: it's a better technology, uh. And Bill Gurley writes about 166 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: this in his blog about why it is a better 167 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: way of going public for a high growth innovative company. 168 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: And I think the data shows that, so mark, you 169 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: know what, when I grew up with spects, it was 170 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: typically backed by a really well known and seasoned investor, 171 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: John mull Own for example, someone like that who has 172 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: a track record. But now SPACs are with you know, 173 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: a rod and celebrities and things like that. Is that 174 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 1: not the mark of hey, we've gone too far with 175 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: this thing. Such a great point, Such a great point. Now, 176 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: if you go back to the early days of spacks, 177 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: you know, the spack industry was like the n I 178 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: T Tournament of fundraising. Nobody wants to go to the 179 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: n I T Tournament. They all want to be the 180 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 1: n C Double A. And so for twenty plus years 181 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 1: it was a horrible place to try to raise money. 182 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 1: And the returns showed. So up until two thousand and fifteen, 183 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: the returns and SPACs were terrible. About seventy per cent 184 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: of SPACs raised that your had to liquid eight. They 185 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:45,679 Speaker 1: changed the rules and by we were down to know 186 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: SPACs actually had to liquidate. They actually found real businesses 187 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 1: to buy. Well, why is that? Well to your point, 188 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: we started to see real operators and real businesses uh 189 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: be be involved in the spack market. Now. I did 190 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: a presentation called What's so Special about Special Purpose Acquisition 191 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 1: Companies late last year, and in it I had a picture. 192 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: On the left hand side was Chama and Richard Branson, 193 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 1: and on the right was a former athlete, former UM writer, author, 194 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 1: and a former Goldman Sacks operating executive. And they said, 195 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: I'll back the guys on the left right exactly right. Hey, Mark, 196 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: We're gonna have to We're gonna have to leave it 197 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: there just because of the time, but we'll have you back. 198 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: We'll talk more spacks. Mark, you chief executive officer of 199 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: Morgan Creek Capital Management. Looking at Goldman Sachs JP Morgan, 200 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 1: they both both reported some pretty solid results uh this quarter. 201 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:42,599 Speaker 1: Both stocks are down a little bit today about the 202 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 1: one and a half to two and a half percent. 203 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: Let's get the skinny on those names, plus what to 204 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: expect later on in the week as these big banks 205 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: report earnings. As it was returned to our in house expert, 206 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: Alison Williams, senior industry analysts covering all things in the 207 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 1: banks for Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg's in house investment 208 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 1: research department. Over analysts are stocks, thirty industries, just all 209 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: over the place. UM. Alison, thanks so much for joining 210 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,959 Speaker 1: us here. What are your key takeaways from JP Morgan Goldman? 211 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 1: To me, it seems like the bankers really came through. 212 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: The bankers did really come through, and especially M and A, 213 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 1: which is something that we expected to be strong. UM 214 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: exceeded the consensus estimates, and we really think that there's 215 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 1: legs to that revenue stream in the second half as 216 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 1: well as UM the adjacent stream of sort of financing 217 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: businesses and the like UM, but that's a smaller part 218 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: of the business, especially for someone like JP Morgan. And 219 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: then I guess the negative is which is which is 220 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: something that's been building for a while, is just sort 221 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: of the disappointing net interest income trends and that's really 222 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: tied to loan growth. I would say that for JP 223 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 1: Morgan today, the the newer I guess negative is the 224 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 1: fact that they up there guidance again. So see billion. 225 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: We started off the year about sixty eight billion in January. 226 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: That's been kicking up now. Part of that is due 227 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: to better business related volumes. So it takes money to 228 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: to make money. We view that a little bit more 229 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 1: favorably than than perhaps what we're seeing a city group. Um, 230 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,719 Speaker 1: but still, you know, everyone would like to say more 231 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: revenue and less cost. You know what's interesting as we 232 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,439 Speaker 1: think about the bankers coming through, it was just Daniel Pinto, 233 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: I believe within the last two weeks, seeing that the 234 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: trading slump is over. Do you buy that or are 235 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: we thinking that a trading slump could be here to stay? Well? 236 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: I think that I think, Um, the key point that 237 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: Pinto is referring to, which we agree with, is the 238 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: fact that, um, we're not necessarily going to go back 239 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 1: to the lows. So thick revenue is down, you know 240 00:13:54,320 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: over it was down like forty about the two banks, 241 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:06,079 Speaker 1: but still higher than it was in So we're off, 242 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: you know, sort of the really robust quarter from a 243 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 1: year ago but still stronger. So, UM, what what makes 244 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: us sort of agree with the fact that, you know, 245 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: revenue might not go back to some of those lower 246 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 1: levels that we saw in UM. You know, I guess, 247 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: I guess there's there's a few things. But you know, 248 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: one of the key things that that we're seeing right 249 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: now is obviously the huge monetary support support for the moment, 250 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: policy support for the moment. The longer term trend is 251 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: obviously GDP and capital markets development. And one of the 252 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: things that we've seen at the banks and asset managers 253 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: alike in recent quarters is the build out in China. 254 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: That's something where UM Goldman has been really focusing and 255 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: sort of that revenue stream coming on board helping the banks. Alison, 256 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: and this is just a question based upon my I 257 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 1: used to spend a long time working at these investment 258 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: banks like you did. Did they say anything about coming 259 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 1: back to work? What's going on there? Because it's it's 260 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: a big issue. There's definitely a focus on having client 261 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: facing UM bankers and traders back in the office UM. 262 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: And so that's something that we've been seeing UM over 263 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: the last several weeks in terms of getting people back 264 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: in the office, and you know, we hear a lot 265 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: about certain banks using that as a differentiator UM in 266 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: terms of giving more flexibility. UM. Obviously, at the end 267 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: of the day, you know that competition is tough in 268 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: the in these businesses, especially if you're going to see 269 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: normalizing revenue. And so I think it's you know, it's 270 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: all fine until you know someone loses out on a 271 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: deal UM. And so I think that UM to the 272 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: extent that people are in the offices and are outseeing clients, UM, 273 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: they want to be doing their their best for market share. 274 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: And by the way, that's that's the other thing that 275 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: will be interesting as the full quarter shakes out. We 276 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: did see equities trading better than expected by both competitors 277 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: today UM Prime brokerage record balances we heard from both companies. 278 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: Now hedge funds we expect as an industry have record balances. 279 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: But we're also curious to see how things are shaking 280 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: out in the wake of Credit Sweezes pullback. Um Arcos 281 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 1: was the story last quarter. UM Credit Sweeze has had 282 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: sort of a more dramatic pullback in their business, whereas 283 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: you know Morgan Stanley and us UBS, which also took 284 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: hits Um you know, have also made changes, but a 285 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: little bit more at the margin. Just about forty seconds 286 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 1: to a minute here, Allison, what does this mean for 287 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: any indication of what we can get for tomorrow as 288 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: we get further bank earnings reporting. So two things for tomorrow, 289 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: well three, One is will not interest income guidance come down, 290 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: especially for Bank America and while Spargo UM also City 291 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: Group that they have sort of already taken their expectations 292 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: down a bit um. The second UH is costs. As 293 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: I said, we saw a higher business related costs for UM, JP, Morgan, 294 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 1: City Groups. Full your guidance is going to be key 295 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 1: to watch there. And then third, what's happening in equities? 296 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: Are these banks gaining some share in the prime business? 297 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: All right, Allison as always great follow up there and 298 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 1: we'll be chatting with you, I'm sure later in the 299 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 1: week as these banks continue to roll out their numbers. 300 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: Alison Williams, she's a senior banks analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, 301 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from the swamps of Jersey. 302 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 1: I guess um so again Goldman sacks, JP Morgan's some 303 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 1: solid numbers here today. One of the issues that I 304 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: found interesting from Allison's comments was the lack of loan 305 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: or disappointing or lower than expected loan growth. And that's 306 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,679 Speaker 1: a theme that we've heard from some of the banks, 307 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: and perhaps that's a reflection of there's so much cash 308 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: in the marketplace, fiscal stimulus, easy monetary policy, that the 309 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: overall demand for some of these loan products not quite 310 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:57,479 Speaker 1: where they'd like to see it. Well, I'm more coming up. 311 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Wolfgang Coaster joins us. He's a senior 312 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: strategist for Kyrieba'll get us thoughts on the currency business. 313 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 1: You know, during the pandemic, the currencies, the US dollar 314 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: has been fairly steady, but not so much with some 315 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,919 Speaker 1: other currencies. Wolfgang, thanks so much for joining us here. 316 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: I know you guys are out with a currency impact report. 317 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: What are the big takeaways from this report as to 318 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: what currency volatility has cost companies? Yeah? Sure, well, thank 319 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: you for having me first of all, um, So, this 320 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: Currency Impact Report looks at twelve companies around the world's 321 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: focused four hundred in Europe and eight hundred in North America. 322 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: And what we accumulate there is the fact, so the 323 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: quantitative facts of who has been hurt or who has 324 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,919 Speaker 1: gained from currency impacts, and then we actually validate that 325 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 1: against what the standards in the industry are, what is 326 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 1: acceptable as a currency impact and what is not acceptable. 327 00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: And what we've seen this quarter is is that we've 328 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 1: got just under ten billion dollars of losses that have 329 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 1: been pointed out by the corporations. If you accumulate them 330 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: all around the world. This really is a significant increase 331 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,439 Speaker 1: even over last quarter, and we expect that to actually 332 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: continue for a couple of reasons. One obviously seeing UH 333 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: the economy not only in the United States but elsewhere 334 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 1: heating up, and so you're gonna start seeing more flow 335 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: of supply chains of products going across. The other thing 336 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: is with that, you're actually seeing a material increase in 337 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: volatility um impacting corporations that do not manage currency risk 338 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 1: properly and to the fact have a continue get hurt. 339 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 1: And those are typically surprises that the UH investor community punishes. 340 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 1: You know, it's been interesting coming into this year. The 341 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,120 Speaker 1: over welming call was for further dollar weakness, and yet 342 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 1: since June you've actually seen some dollar strength as of late. 343 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: What does that mean for hedging as it relates to 344 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 1: the dollar. Yeah, it's great point. And the one never 345 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: knows where the dollar is going. Only one thing is sure. 346 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: When there's no volatility, there will be volatility or whatever 347 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,199 Speaker 1: the direction is. Now, when you're thinking about this, and 348 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: this is a little bit counterintuitive from most, is when 349 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 1: the dollar goes up, that means that whatever revenues you 350 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 1: have abroad are actually worthless to you. And unless you've 351 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: manage that risk by hedging it or managing in other ways, um, 352 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 1: you will have negative impacts with a strong dollar. That's 353 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:46,440 Speaker 1: typically counterintuitive. Everybody thinks, well, dollars going is strong, therefore 354 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: things are great, things are going well. Well for corporations, 355 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: we don't manage that. That's actually typically not good news. 356 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 1: And to put that in further uh, in kind of 357 00:20:54,080 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 1: further context, the average SMP company has over fifty cent 358 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: of its revenues from outside the United States. So that 359 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: means the average spy, if they do nothing, have fifty 360 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 1: of their revenues at risk due to currency of volatility. 361 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: All right, well, kind when I see a number like 362 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,479 Speaker 1: nine point five billion dollars lost due to a currency 363 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 1: of alatility, is my takeaway is that corporations are not 364 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: very good at hedging. Um, some are and some aren't, 365 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 1: but the ones that have to disclose it are not, 366 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 1: is the fact of the matter. So the nine a 367 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 1: half billion that disclosed it are not very good at 368 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 1: managing their risks. So that takeaway is absolutely correct. Now, 369 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,919 Speaker 1: we at cariber Triped help companies actually look at that 370 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: and manage that properly and really not manage it, but 371 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: understand that exposure. And so we hope that less and 372 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: less corporations get impacted. But when you think about one 373 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,919 Speaker 1: quarter nine and a half billion dollars lost in stock, 374 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: in the in the revenues, etcetera, that's those are you 375 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: could equate that to jobs, right, that's a lot of 376 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: jobs people can't really afford to because they're not managing 377 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 1: their currency risk to the levels they can. And to 378 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: put a benchmark at this because you're asking which direction 379 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: that goes to. The benchmark is if a company has 380 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 1: more than one sent earnings per share impacted by foreign exchange, 381 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: that's material and too much. There are lots of companies 382 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: we saw PEPSI coming out earlier today, no impacts. There's 383 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,880 Speaker 1: lots of professional companies of all sizes. By the way, 384 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 1: it isn't just the larger the company the better they 385 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 1: are managing it. But you can have small companies like 386 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,360 Speaker 1: a Hubble, for example, that does a great job at 387 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 1: managing their currency risk and have no impacts. They are 388 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: would referred to as currency agnostics. They manage their financial 389 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 1: affairs in such a way that the currencies do not 390 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: really impact the results. That's very doable and by the way, 391 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: not very expensive today. Wolfgan, thanks so much for joining us. 392 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 1: A really appreciated Wolfgang Coaster Senior Strategies for Kiribe. They 393 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 1: have their quarterly Cairibbe's Currency Impact Report that came out 394 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 1: this morning and in the key takeaway corporations lost nine 395 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 1: point five billion dollars due to increased currency of alatility 396 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: in the past quarter. It seemed like a big number 397 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 1: to me. Taylor, Yeah, certainly does. I was taking a 398 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: look at the We have a great chart on the 399 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 1: terminal with the bond volatility index, the equity so the 400 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 1: move the VIX, and then the currency the G seven 401 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 1: and it's actually been bond ball that's been spiking lately. 402 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: You've actually equity and effex vall falling. How much, of course, 403 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 1: is that due to the federal reserve playing a pretty 404 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: heavy hand in these markets. Yeah. Absolutely, Looking at the 405 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: vix right here at you know, sixteen level, you know, 406 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: you know it had been pre pandemic in that level, 407 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 1: but as we remember, it's spiked up to eighty during 408 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 1: the beginning of that pandemic here, right back down to 409 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,400 Speaker 1: more normalized level. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 410 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 411 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 412 00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:00,080 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on false me. 413 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You 414 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio. M