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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Crystal?

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do lots of interesting polls breaking this out

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Speaker 1: this morning, both on the Democratic side, some problems with

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Speaker 1: Biden and non voters, and also on the Republican side,

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Speaker 1: some interesting insights into who is actually the most electable

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Speaker 1: sort of surprising. We also have new comments from Mitch

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Speaker 1: McConnell about what exactly is going on with him and

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Speaker 1: his health. And we also have new comments from Diane

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Speaker 1: Feinstein where she appeared to forget that she had given

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Speaker 1: her daughter power of attorney over her personal affairs. Also

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Speaker 1: some details about how a doom loop that is coming

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Speaker 1: for commercial real estate could really imperil a lot of

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Speaker 1: the commercial banking sector, so we'll dig into that. We've

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Speaker 1: also got some new details about how gen Z feels

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Speaker 1: about college is much different from how millennials felt about college,

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Speaker 1: and a very interesting speech from Mike Pence condemning populism

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Speaker 1: and asserting his view of what the Republican Party should

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Speaker 1: be spoiler alert sounds a lot like the past of

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Speaker 1: what the Republican Party has.

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Speaker 3: Been, so there's a lot to say about it there.

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Speaker 1: It's actually very interesting, so we'll dig into that. We're

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Speaker 1: also excited to have a YouTuber Fantano and music critic

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Speaker 1: on to do a little fun segment dissecting the political

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Speaker 1: playlist the music playlist of some of the presidential contenders.

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Speaker 1: So that should be a fun one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really exciting. Yeah, I go ahead.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into any of that, though, we want

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Speaker 1: to thank all of the Premium subscribers who've been helping

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Speaker 1: us out because we are super super excited to be

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Speaker 1: putting together our very first ever focus group, and I

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Speaker 1: can now reveal to you a few of the details

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Speaker 1: of this focus group. So it's happening this weekend. We

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Speaker 1: should have some results to bring to you next week.

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Speaker 1: It's among Republican voters in the state of New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: so we should get a good view from them about

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Speaker 1: what candidates they're considering, what candidates they're with. Some of

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Speaker 1: them are sort of settled on their candidates, some of

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Speaker 1: them are undecided, So we'll dig into all of that

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Speaker 1: and some of the top issues. It should be really cool.

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Speaker 2: What I'm most excited for from our focus group and

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Speaker 2: the work that we've put into it, and on top

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Speaker 2: of our team and the firm that we've partnered with,

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Speaker 2: is we're trying to get to stuff that the mainstream

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Speaker 2: media doesn't ask.

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Speaker 3: We're going to ask economic questions. We're going to try

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Speaker 3: and get into the.

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Speaker 2: Deeper like what motivates voters, and actually get to some

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Speaker 2: uniting factors and more so just move towards the structural

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Speaker 2: things that affect every every day people's lives as opposed

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Speaker 2: to just pure horse race. So we're going to do

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Speaker 2: our best year. We really excited to put that work in.

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Speaker 2: As we've said before though, it costs a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: So if you are able to Upbreakingpoints dot Com to

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Speaker 2: become a premium member, we think you're going to get

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Speaker 2: a lot out of it. Both you know both to

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Speaker 2: listen to. But really I think it's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: very visual medium. Think people are going to want to

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Speaker 2: watch some of the stuff that we put together.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, it should be really cool, and we want to

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Speaker 1: hear from you about what you think of it. When

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Speaker 1: we get it all together and present the results. Let

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Speaker 1: us know what you think and if you enjoy it

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Speaker 1: and you get something out of it, also let us

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Speaker 1: know what we should do next, because perhaps this is

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Speaker 1: the thing that we you know, it's not just a want,

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Speaker 1: sure we could continue to do moving forward. All right, So,

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Speaker 1: speaking of polls and focus groups and politics and all

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Speaker 1: of the rest, some pretty dire numbers for Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: and the Democratic Party among non white voters. And this

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Speaker 1: is a very interesting analysis put together by the New

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Speaker 1: York Times Nate Cohen. Let's put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: We've got some of the graphics here. So what these

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Speaker 1: charts show is consistent signs of erosion in black and

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Speaker 1: Hispanic support for Biden, and really not just for Biden.

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Speaker 1: I mean they start to track this shift back in

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Speaker 1: twenty twelve. It really begins to accelerate with some of

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Speaker 1: the realignment that occurs with Donald Trump, in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 1: These lines track the sentiment of black and brown and

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Speaker 1: other non white voters towards Democrats and support for the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party across these years by different demographic growths. So

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Speaker 1: the first one that you see there is just by

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Speaker 1: race and ethnicity. You can see black support declining. You

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Speaker 1: can see all non white support declining. You can see

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Speaker 1: Hispanic support declining. They don't have Asian broken out here

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Speaker 1: because they just didn't have a large enough sample size.

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Speaker 1: Then they go on to gender. It's among both genders,

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Speaker 1: male and female. They go to age. It's among both

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Speaker 1: ages both age groups that they break out here. Then

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Speaker 1: they go to education. You see this trend among non

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Speaker 1: college and college degree holding. However, the trend is much

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Speaker 1: steeper among non college degree holding non white voters and

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Speaker 1: among income groups. You also see the decline happening among

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Speaker 1: basic all income groups, but it is particularly notable among

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Speaker 1: those making less than fifty K, and actually among those

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Speaker 1: who are making more than one hundred K, so that's

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Speaker 1: the highest income group. You actually see the trend reversing somewhat.

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Speaker 1: So this is consistent with that sorting of voters among

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Speaker 1: education and class lines that we have sort of consistently

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Speaker 1: tracked over the years. So they make the point that

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Speaker 1: mister Biden is underperforming most among non white voters making

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Speaker 1: less than one hundred thousand dollars per year, at least

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Speaker 1: temporarily erasing the century old tendency for Democrats to fare

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Speaker 1: better among lower income than higher income non white voters. Now,

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Speaker 1: it's not like non white voter Sager are flocking in

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Speaker 1: droves to the Republican Party, although they do note that

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Speaker 1: there is a modest group of five percent of non

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Speaker 1: white Biden voters who now say they support mister Trump,

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Speaker 1: so there has been some small shift actually affirmatively towards Trump. However,

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Speaker 1: the bigger thing that Democrats are concerned about, and the

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Speaker 1: bigger worry for them out of numbers like this, is

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Speaker 1: that these voters just aren't going to show up. Yes,

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Speaker 1: and that's exactly what we saw in the midterms. It's

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Speaker 1: not like non white voters went to the Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: It's just they were not nearly as animated about this

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Speaker 1: election as white voters were, who have basically maintained their

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Speaker 1: support for the Democratic Party across the Trump and Biden years.

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Speaker 1: It's just that they didn't show up their turnout was

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Speaker 1: way down. And when you're talking about these razor thin margins,

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Speaker 1: and when you're looking at polls that are coming out

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Speaker 1: that show Biden and Trump tied in a general election

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Speaker 1: had to head matchup, this is an important part of

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Speaker 1: the story of why Biden is struggling to break out

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Speaker 1: ahead of Trump at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the line that just stuck out to me is

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Speaker 2: this quote, I mean, which is just unbelievable. Guys, can

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Speaker 2: if we can put it up there on the screen.

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Speaker 2: It's so important for people to understand. I mean, when

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Speaker 2: he is underperforming amongst non white voters making less than

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Speaker 2: one hundred thousand dollars per year, that quote at temporarily

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Speaker 2: erases the century old tendency for Democrats to fare better

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Speaker 2: amongst lower income than higher income non white voters. This

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Speaker 2: is a full blown political realignment that we're watching. And

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Speaker 2: if it does manifest whenever it comes to the polling

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Speaker 2: I mean to the actual polling stations and where people

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Speaker 2: are pulling the lever for votes, that is just unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: It also does make sense though, in terms of the

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Speaker 2: issue set that it's most animating for the new Democratic base,

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Speaker 2: which is abortion and listen we've talked about it before. Actually,

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Speaker 2: freddied Woar made a good pint, which is abortion really

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Speaker 2: is one of those things that cost cuts across class lines,

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Speaker 2: one of the reasons why it is particularly animating.

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Speaker 3: But let's be real.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's white liberal women in particular who are

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Speaker 2: the most animated about it. Nothing wrong, just saying though

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Speaker 2: that those are people who are voting the most whenever

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Speaker 2: it comes to that issue. Well, if that's the only

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Speaker 2: issue set that you're really running on, then people who

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Speaker 2: are most voted but motivated by economic factors, they're either

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Speaker 2: going to stay home, or they're going to look elsewhere,

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Speaker 2: or they're just going to be particularly pissed off and

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Speaker 2: they may, you know, it may take something at the

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Speaker 2: very last minute to can convince them to vote, which

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Speaker 2: is pretty devastating whenever that's your pitch as a party.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's not just abortion that Biden's running on.

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Speaker 2: He continues to embrace the emblem Bidenomics for some reason

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Speaker 2: that none of us understand. It's very clear from these

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Speaker 2: numbers working class, non white voters do not subscribe to

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Speaker 2: Bidenomics or the Bidenomics message at all.

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Speaker 1: So this is actually the entire subject of my monologue today,

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Speaker 1: which is that the experience of the average voter of

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration has been one of seeing every pandemic

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Speaker 1: era aid program that genuinely helped a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: I mean, don't get me wrong, a lot of suffering

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Speaker 1: during COVID two, But if you look at the numbers,

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Speaker 1: people were able to pay down their debt, people were

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Speaker 1: able to have a little bit of a cushion in

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Speaker 1: their bank account. You think about the child tax credit,

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Speaker 1: you think about the direct checks, you think about support

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Speaker 1: for affordable childcare, all of these things, expanded healthcare, all

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Speaker 1: of these things got stripped away over the course of

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration. And you add to that increasing prices

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Speaker 1: making it much more difficult for people to be able

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Speaker 1: to afford the things they need, just the basics of survival,

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Speaker 1: and wildly unaffordable housing, perhaps the least affordable housing market

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Speaker 1: that you know we've seen, certainly in our lifetimes, perhaps ever,

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Speaker 1: and it spells a lot of trouble now long term.

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Speaker 1: I actually think some of the things that Biden has

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Speaker 1: done have been good and will benefit the economy in

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Speaker 1: the long term. The industrial policy, you think about the

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Speaker 1: CHIPSAC Inflation Reduction Act. You think about the moves on unions,

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Speaker 1: the moves on antitrust, but those things are not hitting

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Speaker 1: people's bank accounts today. And so in terms of what

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Speaker 1: matters when people are casting their votes, the fact that

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Speaker 1: their material interests haven't been put first and foremost for

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Speaker 1: especially you know, lower income or working class voters, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's going to matter. Matt carp is a historian, scholar, author, etc.

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Speaker 1: Who studies this stuff really closely. He calls it less

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Speaker 1: class realignment and more class de alignment. It's that in

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Speaker 1: the past you could have predicted, okay, based on your income.

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Speaker 1: If you're lower income, you're more likely to be a

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party supporter, certainly during the New Deal era, because

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Speaker 1: that's where your material interests lie. Increasingly, you just can't predict,

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Speaker 1: like it's just sort of like a toss up. You

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Speaker 1: can't tell anything based on someone's income. They might be

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Speaker 1: a Republican, they might be a Democrat. And so it's

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Speaker 1: less that there's a you know, all these voters flocking

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Speaker 1: to the Republican Party and more that there's just a

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Speaker 1: reversion to a fifty to fifty split because neither party

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Speaker 1: is dealing directly with people's material interests in a way

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Speaker 1: that they feel in a concrete, immediate way today.

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Speaker 3: I don't blame it.

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Speaker 2: How can you, you know, whenever you look at the

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Speaker 2: issue set, that's not really what's up for grabs, especially

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Speaker 2: for our politicians. I wish it wasn't that way, but

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Speaker 2: it certainly is. Class d alignment is an excellent, excellent point,

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Speaker 2: and it fits with something I've been trying to hammer

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Speaker 2: home here for years now, which is we're mostly polarized

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Speaker 2: on educational lies. If you went to a four year

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Speaker 2: college degree, you're probably going to vote for a Democrat.

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Speaker 2: If you didn't, you're probably going to be a Republican.

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Speaker 2: Absent fact, if you are a black voter, but you

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Speaker 2: know in Hispanic sort of converging towards that trend Black

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Speaker 2: even younger black voters are starting to converge to that

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Speaker 2: trend white voters.

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Speaker 3: That is entirely where the split is.

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Speaker 2: That's why I'm so fascinated here to see the non

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Speaker 2: white voter where it's almost it's mostly concentrated, where they

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Speaker 2: would still vote Democrat even if they did not attend

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Speaker 2: a four year college degree institution. Well, in this case,

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Speaker 2: and I always tell this that doesn't mean they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be Republican.

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Speaker 3: Guys.

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Speaker 2: Other Republicans were listening who are like, yeah, absolutely, they

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Speaker 2: just may not vote. And there's one hundred million people

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Speaker 2: in this country don't vote. A lot of people don't vote.

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Speaker 2: I've not voted in the past because I just didn't care.

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Speaker 2: And I actually think that is an afirmative choice, you

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Speaker 2: know for many people I which I do not judge

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Speaker 2: really at all, which is I'm checking out, And that's

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Speaker 2: a feeling overwhelmingly where it's a feeling. It's a real

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Speaker 2: undermining of faith in our democracy, and it's one where increasingly,

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Speaker 2: the more partisan that we become, we will accelerate class

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Speaker 2: d alignment and will probably accelerate the non white voting

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Speaker 2: or the non voting trend, even more so than where

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Speaker 2: it is right now, which is actually a catastrophe in

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Speaker 2: the long run.

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Speaker 3: I mean a civil engagement.

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Speaker 1: Ironically, because Trump is such a cult touchstone and like

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Speaker 1: you know, made politics culture and vice versa, voting participation

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Speaker 1: has been up in the Trump era. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was very high in twenty twenty. Actually, in a

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Speaker 1: lot of these special elections that we've been tracking that

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Speaker 1: have centered around abortion, turnout has been extremely high, so

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Speaker 1: there's been there's actually been an increase in the level

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Speaker 1: of engagement. But it'll be interesting to see if that

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Speaker 1: holds in this election when you have so much dissatisfaction

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Speaker 1: with both of these choices, and it's really going to

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Speaker 1: turn on the voters who hate both of these men,

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Speaker 1: you know, assuming it's Trump and Biden who are facing

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Speaker 1: off again, which certainly looks like the most plausible outcome

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Speaker 1: at this point. Those people who hate both of them,

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Speaker 1: who do they break for? That's probably going to be

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Speaker 1: the determinive factor, given the fact that you know, both

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Speaker 1: of them have like thirty something percent of roval ratings

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Speaker 1: both of them. People are like, really, you're going to

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Speaker 1: run again? Nobody wants you, like, please move on? Can

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Speaker 1: we please have some other choices? And yet here we

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Speaker 1: are locked into this battle between these guys. Let me

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Speaker 1: also put this next piece up on the screen, which

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Speaker 1: is funny, amusing and also sad. I know. NBC News, Okay,

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Speaker 1: here's the headline. Democratic elites struggle to get voters as

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Speaker 1: excited about Biden as they are now. I question whether

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Speaker 1: they are actually that excited about Joe Biden. I am

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Speaker 1: a little skeptical that they I mean, these are not

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Speaker 1: stupid people. They can see his shortcomings in terms of

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Speaker 1: his vigor that was a good word to use the

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Speaker 1: other day saga, in terms of his sort of like

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Speaker 1: presidential vigor, et cetera. I mean, they can see that

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Speaker 1: he's not the most exciting, charismatic figure. So I'm a

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Speaker 1: little skeptical that these Democratic elites are as excited as

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Speaker 1: NBC News is reporting them to be. But they're trying

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Speaker 1: very hard to convince the electorate that, you know, this

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Speaker 1: is a great affirmative choice, that this is the best

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Speaker 1: person that the Democratic Party could possibly put forward, and

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Speaker 1: they're having difficulties getting voters to buy into this. There's

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Speaker 1: one individual, one guy Rich Thou, who ran a focused

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Speaker 1: group in may have swing voters that'd switched from Trump

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Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen to Biden twenty twenty. He said, the

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Speaker 1: analogy I like to use is Trump and Biden are

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Speaker 1: like the fifth place team playing the sixth place team,

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Speaker 1: and you're required to root for one of them. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of quotes from voters in here who are

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Speaker 1: basically like the same. I mean, people were like, I'll

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Speaker 1: vote for Biden if that's who it ends up being,

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Speaker 1: but I really wish there was another choice. So a

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Speaker 1: lot of dissatisfaction is don't forget the R.

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Speaker 2: Hillary in many respects lost some of the close states

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Speaker 2: just because a lot of black voters just didn't vote.

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Speaker 2: A lot of them didn't come out to vote in

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Speaker 2: Detroit or Milwaukee or any of these places where was a razor

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Speaker 2: thin margin, and Trump was able to win Michigan, and

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Speaker 2: he was able to win Wisconsin. Turn Low turnout in

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Speaker 2: the city of Philadelphia almost certainly cost Hillary the state

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Speaker 2: of Pennsylvania. So it's one of those where I mean,

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Speaker 2: of course the Democrats, many of them turned around and

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Speaker 2: they're like, no, it's your fault for staying at home.

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Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, well, maybe vote. Motivate them, you know,

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Speaker 3: actually get them to come out to the polls.

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Speaker 2: I could see a scenario right here where Biden puts

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Speaker 2: himself right back in that situation.

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Speaker 3: Look at Georgia.

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Speaker 2: I mean, last time I checked a lot of black

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Speaker 2: Democrats in the state of Georgia. If younger voters don't

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Speaker 2: come out, okay, Trump just won Georgia.

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Speaker 3: Same in Arizona.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you could see the exact same thing scenario

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Speaker 2: playing out with Hispanic voters, So Nevada, any.

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Speaker 3: Of these states.

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Speaker 2: When you're playing with fire like this, you just have

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Speaker 2: no idea what things are going to look like on

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Speaker 2: election day, and you're setting yourself up very much for failure.

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Speaker 2: So it's one of those trends where, I mean, this

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Speaker 2: is probably one of the most important voting trends in

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Speaker 2: I mean, as you put it in this centry, it.

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Speaker 3: Is literally a complete relime and d line and whatever

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Speaker 3: the hell you want to call it.

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Speaker 2: But it is a change, and it's a major change

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Speaker 2: in the way that people vote in this country.

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Speaker 1: They said in the New York Times piece, those tallies

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Speaker 1: of non white voters might be the worst for a

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Speaker 1: Democratic leader among black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale

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Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty, just to give you a sense of

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Speaker 1: how this is all looking. And the Democrats are so

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Speaker 1: terrified of any kind of democracy. I mean, of course,

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden wants to keep his hold on power. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you know that is what it is. But they really

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Speaker 1: believe that by opening up an actual, real democratic prime

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Speaker 1: and process that they stand to lose from that. And

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Speaker 1: I just can't wrap my head around that being the

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Speaker 1: case when voters are so eager and anxious, and we've

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Speaker 1: got new numbers this morning from CNN, still a majority

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Speaker 1: of Democratic voters saying, we really want someone else. And so,

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Speaker 1: you know, if this is your guy and he earns

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Speaker 1: his place and they evaluate their other options and they're like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: you know what, Joe is the best guy. You're also

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Speaker 1: going to generate more enthusiasm for him if people don't

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Speaker 1: feel like he's just being foisted on them and they

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Speaker 1: have no other choice. So, you know, I think that

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Speaker 1: if their goal, and it's a big question mark whether

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Speaker 1: really their number one goal is to defeat Trump, but

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Speaker 1: if that is their goal, I really think they're handstraining

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Speaker 1: themselves by closing off even the possibility of an open

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Speaker 1: Democratic primary choice. However, part of the reason why they

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Speaker 1: so adamantly want to maintain this, like iron grip on,

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Speaker 1: we will not consider anyone other than Joe Biden, is

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Speaker 1: that if they don't do that, then the next logical

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Speaker 1: person in line is Kamala Harris. And as much as

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Speaker 1: Biden is, you know, looking fairly weak against Trump, the

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Speaker 1: numbers bear out that Kamala Harris is much weaker against Trump,

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Speaker 1: whereas Biden is head to head. Kamala in the average

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Speaker 1: of polls is losing to Trump. And I'll show you

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Speaker 1: some of those numbers in a moment. And it also

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Speaker 1: is a problem directly for Joe Biden because of course,

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Speaker 1: people are looking at the actuarial tables, they are, you know,

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Speaker 1: looking at his manifestic line, and they're thinking about, okay, well,

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't make it, who's next in line? And

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Speaker 1: it's Kamala Harris, who again has even less esteem among

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Speaker 1: the voting public. But she got asked recently is she

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Speaker 1: ready to take over if that happens, if he is

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Speaker 1: unable to make it through the term. Let's listen to

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Speaker 1: what she had to say.

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Speaker 2: The question for the president's age often go hand and

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Speaker 2: hand with questions about how you step in the role,

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Speaker 2: you know, if necessary, Do you feel prepared for that

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Speaker 2: possibility as.

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Speaker 3: Sermon as vice president? Prepared you for that job?

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Speaker 4: Yes?

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Speaker 3: And well, how would you describe that process?

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, let's I'm answering your hypothetical. But

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden's going to be fine, so that is not

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Speaker 4: going to come to fruition. But let us also understand

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Speaker 4: that every vice president, every vice president understands that when

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Speaker 4: they take the oath that they must be very clear

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Speaker 4: about the responsibility they may have to take over the

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Speaker 4: job of being president. I am no different.

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Speaker 1: So she's staying there. She's ready to take over if

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Speaker 1: Biden doesn't make it through. And as I said, I

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Speaker 1: think that's also an important factor in this election when

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Speaker 1: you have, you know, president where huge concerns about his

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Speaker 1: age from across the board. Republicans, Independence and Democrats put

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Speaker 1: this up on the train and thought this was a

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Speaker 1: good insight from Nate Silver. He points out that Democrats

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Speaker 1: think Kamala Harris would lose to Trump. Woul say, they

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Speaker 1: are probably right. The subtext of why there was no

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Speaker 1: serious primary challenge to Biden is that, you know, Kamala

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Speaker 1: would be seen as the next in line. It would

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Speaker 1: be politically got This is something we've been flagging for

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Speaker 1: a long time, by the way, that it would be

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Speaker 1: politically awkward to supplant the first female black vice president

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Speaker 1: for Gavin Newsom or whoever to jump the line in

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Speaker 1: front of her. That would be very politically awkward. But

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Speaker 1: you can see here Biden is tied forty four to

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Speaker 1: forty four with Trump in these poles Harris trails him

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Speaker 1: forty two to forty six. Silver goes on to say,

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Speaker 1: it's not that big a difference, I guess, but a

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Speaker 1: net margin of four points is a fairly big deal.

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Speaker 1: More likely than not that the next election will come

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Speaker 1: down to four points or less in the tipping point states.

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Speaker 1: So that is a significant disadvantage for Kamala Harris. And

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Speaker 1: this is part of why Sager. I know, listen, I

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Speaker 1: know people are concerned about Joe Biden's age. I think

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Speaker 1: this is legitimate, absolutely, I think this is an important

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Speaker 1: factor in why you're so close with Trump, etcetera. But

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Speaker 1: I think there's more going on here than just the age.

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Speaker 1: Because also, if you look at not just Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 1: but a whole variety of Democrats who are younger than

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden, it's not like they do way better than

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Speaker 1: he does in the polls. And Harris is the perfect

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Speaker 1: case in point. I mean, she's carrying the Biden Harris

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Speaker 1: agenda right now. She is much younger than Joe Biden,

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Speaker 1: and she performs meaningfully worse than him in the polls.

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Speaker 1: So I think if people really felt the benefits of

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Speaker 1: his policies in their bank accounts, then the age would

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Speaker 1: become less of an important factor. But since so much

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Speaker 1: of our politics is like vibes and whatever, then you know,

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Speaker 1: the age and the lack of vigor land becomes the

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Speaker 1: default explanation for why people are feeling unsettled about another

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Speaker 1: Biden president.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think they look that's a baked in absolutely

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Speaker 2: or correct. It's also with Kamlas She's an incredibly untalented politician.

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Speaker 3: And I've been thinking about it.

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Speaker 2: I think it might be one of the biggest mistakes

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Speaker 2: he has made for his entire career was picking Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris as a vice president, bowing to pressure from Jim

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Speaker 2: Cliburn during BLM. He would have been better off picking

436
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 2: just some normy Democrat like aiming Listen, I'm not saying

437
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 2: I like these people. I'm talking about just peer politically

438
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 2: Whitmer or Amy Klobuchar, any of these people, and now

439
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 2: we would be in this situation. And if he didn't

440
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: want to run Democrats, I mean, look, I don't think

441
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 2: Amyklovitro would be particularly strong, but I think she'd be

442
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 2: a hell of a lot stronger than Kamala Harris. I

443
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 2: don't know if she would win against Trump. But I

444
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 2: mean with Kamala, I know, I know that she won't

445
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 2: win against Trump.

446
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, even Whitmer. I mean, look, I can't stany Gretchen Whitmer.

447
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 2: There's a whole lot of stuff going with her kidnapping

448
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,160
Speaker 2: case and all that other stuff. She did win reelection,

449
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 2: and in Michigan she did quite well. I didn't think

450
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 2: she would survive given all that stuff that was going

451
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 2: on COVID.

452
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 3: I was totally wrong about that.

453
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 2: So you have somebody here, midwestern, normy Ish Democrat was

454
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 2: able to get re elected. That's what actual points on

455
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 2: the score award looked like for Kamala Harris. I mean

456
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 2: she was even her election it's fake. I mean, she

457
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: didn't win a real primary process in California. She just

458
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 2: foisted upon the California Democratic Party. She'd never face any

459
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 2: real competition. The only competition that was so heavy in

460
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: the first place she had to drop out of in

461
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, where she was pulling lower than Andrew Yang

462
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 2: in her own home state.

463
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 3: That's humiliating.

464
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: I mean, there's just no even in her home state,

465
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 2: there's no way she would even win against Gavin Newsom

466
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,439
Speaker 2: in the head to head election. So why are we

467
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: picking this person for the actual mantle. I mean, we

468
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 2: all know why. It's a complete you know, identity politics pick.

469
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 2: And now look, they've this was the payout to do

470
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 2: the into this into this corner. It's ridiculous.

471
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 1: It was the payback to Jim Clyber, you know, who

472
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 1: basically won the election, the primary election for Joe Biden,

473
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 1: and so this was, you know, this was the big

474
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 1: the big payback for him to get a candidate that

475
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 1: he wanted into the vice presidential position. I always think

476
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: about there was a reporting that Jill Biden, Doctor Jill

477
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 1: Biden was like, don't pick her, and she was right.

478
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: But anyway, we are where we are. So that is

479
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 1: part of why they've been so adamant about no primary process,

480
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 1: about yeah, we're going with Joe, even though you know,

481
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: by far the oldest president we've ever had, even though

482
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 1: you know, there's manifest weakness among not just the general

483
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: electorate but also among the Democratic primary electorate. This is

484
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: a big important part of that. And the fact that

485
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has such low favorability ratings and low approval

486
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 1: ratings among all voters is another challenging factor for Joe

487
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: Biden when there are so many concerns about his age. Okay,

488
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: let's turn to the other party, because we got some

489
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 1: interesting pulling out just this morning from CNN with what

490
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: they call trial heats of different contenders, Republican primary contenders,

491
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 1: how they would fare trying to get at who is

492
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,679
Speaker 1: the most electable on the Republican side. Let's put this

493
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: up on the screen. Steve Kornaki tweeted this out. But

494
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,360
Speaker 1: this is a CNN poll, so you've got Trump Vive Biden.

495
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: Trump is at forty seven, Biden's at forty six, DeSantis

496
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 1: Vie Biden. It's basically tied. So actually Trump is I mean,

497
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: this is all within the margin of error these two,

498
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 1: so you could say they're basically the same. But if

499
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: you take the numbers at face value, Trump actually does

500
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: a little better of a guns Biden than DeSantis does.

501
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: The standout one here is Nikki Haley, who wins by

502
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 1: a six point margin in this trial heat. So Haley's

503
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: at forty nine and Biden's at forty three. Pence is

504
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: at forty six and Biden's at forty four, so he

505
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 1: does a little better than Trump. Again, these are small

506
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: differences but important. Tim Scott forty six, Biden forty four,

507
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: So same as Mike Pence. Biden beats the vag Ramaswami

508
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 1: forty six, forty five. Again that basically you put that

509
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 1: at a jump ball, and Chris Christy does relatively well

510
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 1: forty four percent, Biden forty two percent. But the real

511
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 1: standout candidate here that looks a little bit different, and

512
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 1: who I'm sure we'll be happy to make a very

513
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 1: sertive case that she is the electable candidate is Nicky

514
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: Haley at forty nine percent and Joe Biden at forty

515
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 1: three percent, which tells you, you know, certainly her first debate

516
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: performance did her some favors with the general public. And

517
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 1: I also think it's funny Sara like Nikki Haley, you

518
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: can't really classify her as a moderate in any real

519
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 1: sense of the word. But because you have the media

520
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 1: just like basically asserting this person is a moderate, people

521
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: effectively believe it and are like, oh, she seems reasonable.

522
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 2: Here's why I takeaway. I wouldn't even put the Haley

523
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 2: thing in there. The margin of error on this thing

524
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 2: is three point five. You know what I'm saying. Generic

525
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: r beats Biden and or ties Biden. That's a disaster

526
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 2: for Biden. We've got a generic Republican here, which is effectively,

527
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 2: if you put Trump and DeSantis and Ramason and all

528
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: these people together and you're tied within the margin of error,

529
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: or it's that close Hailey slightly outside the margin of error. There,

530
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: every single one of them either beats Biden or side

531
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: with Biden. That's terrible for Biden. I mean, because it's

532
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 2: one of those where the Biden case was, and especially

533
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 2: why the media and everybody else wants Trump in many

534
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 2: ways to be the nominees because they're like, oh, well,

535
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 2: he's the only one, that he's the weakest Republican in

536
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: this field. No, I think that Biden himself is weak,

537
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 2: and it shows that even a generic R regardless of baggage,

538
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 2: whatever that is, it's plus or mindus, not nearly as

539
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 2: much as a lot of people would like to think,

540
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: which means if people are so dissatisfied with the current

541
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: status quo, they are willing to look anybody else.

542
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: And give them a chance. That's really what I read

543
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 3: into it.

544
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 2: With seeing every single candidate either tie or come within

545
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: a point of this person in the margin, I'm like,

546
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 2: that's that's really bad.

547
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 1: I do think that Nicky Haley thing is interesting though,

548
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: because she does stand out here as having the most

549
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: significant margin over Biden, I mean, six percentage points. It's

550
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 1: outside the margin of error. It's very different than you know,

551
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 1: the Trump and DeSantis who are basically tied with him,

552
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 1: and what I think it's a real problem for It's

553
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: a real problem for DeSantis because he to his pitch

554
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:22,719
Speaker 1: was electability and he is at best no more electable

555
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 1: than Trump, and at worst Trump actually does a little

556
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: bit better than him. And in terms of the donor class,

557
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: there was a big report this week about how what

558
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: was it like sixty percent of Ron DeSantis's big money

559
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: donors have moved on. The candidate who's got all the

560
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: media love coming out of the Republican debates was Nikki Haley.

561
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 1: Certainly seems like Robert Murdoch and his empire are giving

562
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: her a very very hard look. A lot of you know,

563
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: media love and acclaim for her coming out of that

564
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: debate and so and she has come up in the polls.

565
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: I mean, she was the person the VIC didn't end

566
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: up really getting a.

567
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 3: Bump out of the result Trump of the.

568
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: Polls after that primary debate, because I think you're right.

569
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 1: I think the people who liked his performance and said

570
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 1: he won the debate, they're already supporting Donald Trump. So

571
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: he didn't actually grow very much out of that. But

572
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: Nicki Haley was the person who most consistently across the

573
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: polls got somewhat of a bump to challenge DeSantis's number

574
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 1: two position. And so for that slice of the electorate

575
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 1: that's looking for a Trump alternative, for whom electability is important,

576
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 1: you know, this is going to be a very important

577
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 1: metric for them. Now. As I have said a million

578
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: times at nauseum, I think Donald Trump is going to

579
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: be the Republican nominee absence some unforeseen circumstance. However, if

580
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 1: there is some unforeseen circumstance, it will matter who has

581
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 1: put pulled themselves into that number two position. And Nicky Haley,

582
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 1: based on you know, a media effort to really cheerlead

583
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 1: her performance there and a lot of media comfort, especially

584
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 1: conservative media comfort, with her political ideology and positions, is

585
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: increasingly challenging DeSantis in that new number two slot.

586
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great way to reach to is how

587
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 2: bad this is for DeSantis? Where if every single other

588
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 2: person in the GOP race can say I also have

589
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 2: a credible chance of beating Biden, and especially somebody like

590
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 2: Haley or Scott or Ramaswamy. Yeah, then why are you running, dude?

591
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 2: And now it actually takes away the two man race.

592
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 2: The way that we would originally cover the race, the

593
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: GOP race is it's Trump, and then it was DeSantis,

594
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 2: and then there's everybody else, and then Ramaswamy started to

595
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 2: kick up to his heels. Now you've got Haley coming

596
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: up there as well. Now it's like a three four

597
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: way tie for number two depending on which state they're

598
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 2: looking at and the overall number.

599
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 3: That's really bad.

600
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: And actually it only helps Trump because Trump is sitting

601
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 2: pretty above all of them as sixty percent, and he's like, oh,

602
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: all these little kids are squabbling for my number two,

603
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, that's cute. You know, it only

604
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 2: elevates his position as the front runner. To have multiple

605
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,719
Speaker 2: quote unquote credible alternatives as opposed to the one credible

606
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: alternative were like, this is the guy who actually could

607
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 2: be able to do it. So, yeah, that's a great

608
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: way to read it. But man, the weakness for Biden

609
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 2: in this is just stunning. It's stunning to look at, Yeah,

610
00:28:58,120 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 2: that you're losing to every single one of these guys.

611
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 3: Shocking. Yeah.

612
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: I Mean, the one thing I will say on the

613
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: other side, just to make the other case, is that

614
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 1: Democrats outperform the polls in the midterms. Yeah, yeah, Loo,

615
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: And they've outperformed the polls in the special elections elections

616
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: this year. And it seems like abortion is more of

617
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: a factor for voters than even is showing up in

618
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: the polls. So I don't want anyone to feel like, oh,

619
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: it's a slam dunk for Republicans. On the other side,

620
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: I don't think that's true whatsoever. I still think that Biden,

621
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 1: just being the incumbent president, and given what we've seen

622
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: with abortion, I still believe that he likely has the

623
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: edge for re election, very dependent on economic conditions ultimately,

624
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: but the fact that he is an incumbent president, the

625
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: fact that he's running most likely against you know, Donald Trump,

626
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 1: who's facing ninety one different charges, and then everybody hated

627
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 1: you know, January sixth, and the chaos and all of

628
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: the baggage that Trump brings to it, that it's a

629
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: jump ball is really embarrassing.

630
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you.

631
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: I actually put it mostly a fifty to fifty just

632
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 2: because of uncertain economic conditions.

633
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 3: We have no idea.

634
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: I mean, the price of diesel right now is going

635
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 2: through the roof. I think inflation is going to come

636
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 2: roaring back per se, It's going to remain sticky. Who

637
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: the hell knows what's going to go on with Ukraine.

638
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 2: We know that Biden's are going to change the policy

639
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 2: anytime soon. You're really just one geopolitical disaster five six

640
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 2: dollars a gallon away from total loss to wipe out

641
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 2: in the general election. So it's one of those where

642
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 2: considering the uncertainty that remains ahead specifically economically, and we

643
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: could go into a full blown recession. You know, we

644
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 2: could get to five six percent unemployment with persistent and

645
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 2: inflation that's really bad. On top of that, with a

646
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: geopolitical crisis and high gas prices. All of these are

647
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 2: you know, within the probability window of not that far away.

648
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 2: These are not like tail end type of things. These

649
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 2: are just one two. You know, we're looking at like

650
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 2: you go ten percent in this direction, temperason the other way.

651
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: As I've said too, you can give the other side

652
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 2: of that where maybe things calm down in Ukraine, something

653
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 2: goes down, gas goes to two fifty, inflation start to

654
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 2: go down, unemployment remains steady. All of that, the economy

655
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 2: actually looks okay. Sure, I could see them getting reelected.

656
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: To Unfortunately, I don't think that if the status quo

657
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 1: remains in Ukraine, I would like for people to care

658
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: more about it in terms of a voting issue. I

659
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: don't really think that if it, if it maintains in

660
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: this sort of like status quos area that it is

661
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: right now. I think the economic conditions are likely way

662
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: more important.

663
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 2: The only reason I put it in there is it's

664
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: like Afghanistan. Nobody gave a shit about Afghanistan until everybody

665
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 2: cared about Afghanistan. So it's you're only one major news

666
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 2: event away from it dominating everything. And that's always been

667
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 2: my issue with Ukraine. I'm like, you don't know what

668
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 2: you're setting yourself up for. Yeah, it's a slow burn

669
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 2: now eighteen months, but then hook you know, one thing

670
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 2: goes south, nuclear power plant explodes, gets bombed accidentally. One

671
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 2: f sixteen just happens to bomb Russia. We're in a

672
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 2: whole other situation, a whole New World.

673
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 3: The whole glow.

674
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 2: You know, the entire earth is captivated by that news.

675
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: I can easily lose you an election.

676
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Listen, there's a lot of unknowns. There are

677
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 1: a lot of crazy things that no one could imagine

678
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: that are going to transpire between now an election day,

679
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: and they could cut in either direction.

680
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 3: Absolutely. Let's talk about McConnell man.

681
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 2: The aging problem in Congress right now, and not just Congress,

682
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: in our price and see throughout all of our political

683
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 2: elite is just so disgusting and shocking, and the lack

684
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 2: of transparency here on this issue is one where they

685
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 2: have contempt for you.

686
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 3: He doesn't care what you think.

687
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 2: And the reason why is he was willing to give

688
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: a behind the scenes Q and A for five minutes

689
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 2: to his colleagues about his health condition, but when members

690
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 2: of the press, on behalf of the public ask him

691
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: for details of his health condition, he doesn't give us

692
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: any details. He only tells us what he doesn't have,

693
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: not what he actually does have. Here he is being

694
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 2: questioned by the press yesterday. Let's take a listen.

695
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 5: You know what it is.

696
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: We've had all these evaluations.

697
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,959
Speaker 4: What a doctor said is the precise medical reason for

698
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 4: those two free zumps.

699
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 6: What doctor Monihane's report addressed was concerns people might have.

700
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 6: It's some things that happened to me, did happen they didn't,

701
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 6: And there's really I have nothing to add to that.

702
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 6: Think you pretty well covered the subject.

703
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 4: You what do you say to those who all you

704
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 4: got you to step down?

705
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 3: Do you have any plans to retire anytime soon?

706
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 6: I have no announcements to make on that subject.

707
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 3: What do you say to those who are I'm.

708
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 6: Going to finish my term as leader, and I'm going

709
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 6: to finish my senate term. Thank you.

710
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:22,959
Speaker 3: I'm going to finish my senate term, Crystal.

711
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 2: And what the doctors have said is the precise medical

712
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: reason for the freeze ups Well, they said all the

713
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 2: things that people concerned about, and it's none of those, So.

714
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 3: Don't worry about it.

715
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 2: And look, you don't have to be a medical doctor

716
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 2: to know that that is complete.

717
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 3: BS. What do you have, dude?

718
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 2: It ain't dehydration, as doctor rand Paul had to say.

719
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: You know, I think it's very noteworthy that one of

720
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: the people, not only is he his colleague, same state senator. Yeah,

721
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 2: probably a little bit more of an inkling about what's

722
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 2: going on. He's a freaking board certified physician, and he's like, listen, man,

723
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 2: that there is no way and once you know the

724
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 2: thing is too is let's even put that you don't

725
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 2: have to be a doctor to know that that's not

726
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 2: what dehydration looks like. Two separate times during the course,

727
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 2: he also claims Crystal behind the scenes, he's only in

728
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 2: two freeze up.

729
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:12,439
Speaker 3: So they just happened to be in front of the camera.

730
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, okay, sure, yeah, sure.

731
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 3: Okay, just so happened whenever you were on the camera.

732
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 2: I mean, how money moments of this man's life are

733
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 2: not on camera, And so then you ask yourself, like,

734
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 2: what is the likelihood that this medical flare up would

735
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 2: only ever happen.

736
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 3: You know, in this one specific scenario. Just ridiculous. And look, look, luckily,

737
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 3: I've actually been very heartened by this.

738
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: Some GOP senators like rand Paul Josh Holly, who are

739
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 2: about to show you they've had enough. This Halle in particular,

740
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 2: actually made a great point here. We're about to show you.

741
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: He's like, listen, everybody, He's like, ahmind, constituents, everyone's asking

742
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: me about this, And I love that because It's one

743
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,959
Speaker 2: of those actual small de democratic checks where real people

744
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: are like, hey man, this is crazy, Like what are

745
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 2: you guys going to do about this?

746
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, here's what he had to say in the center hallway.

747
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: I don't think you can have it both ways. I mean,

748
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 1: if you're concerned about the president's ability to do job,

749
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 1: and I am, and a lot of Republicans say they are,

750
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: and you've got to be concerning what it's somebody from

751
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: your own party, right, I mean, it can't be sauce.

752
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 3: For the goose but not for the gander. Is he

753
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: able to do the job? I mean, he's going to

754
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 3: have to answer that question. Do I think he should

755
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 3: be a leader? No?

756
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 2: No, I mean, to be fair, Polly voted against him

757
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: and clearly doesn't mind the blowback that he's going to get.

758
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 2: As I alluded to, let's put this up there, Paul

759
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 2: is just actually pulling no punches. He says, quote, my

760
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 2: point is I'm just trying to counter the misinformation from

761
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 2: the Senate doctor. Wow, it is basically not believable to

762
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 2: come up and say what's going on is dehydration.

763
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 3: It makes it worse, right, And yeah, good, thank God?

764
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 2: And Christal, you have a little bit of the backstory

765
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 2: here about one of the reasons maybe why McConnell won't

766
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 2: step down. Yeah, it's because the governor is refusing to

767
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 2: say that he would appoint you Republican. I'm still a

768
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:50,919
Speaker 2: little confused on what that meant.

769
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let me explain what's going on behind the

770
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: scenes in the state of Kentucky, which has not only

771
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 1: has a democratic governor, actually Andy Wassheer as one of

772
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,359
Speaker 1: the highest profratings of an governor in the country. He's

773
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 1: up for reelection this fall, so like months away from reelection,

774
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: polls have him ahead. We'll see what happened. So that's

775
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: an interesting story in and of itself. But the backstory

776
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 1: here is that I think roughly a year ago, right

777
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: around the time, remember there were those pictures coming out

778
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: of McConnell with those hands were like black and blue,

779
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: remember that, And people were like, what's going on with

780
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 1: this health At this point, there was a piece of

781
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 1: legislation passed through the Kentucky legislature, which is Republican dominee.

782
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: Republicans have a super majority in the House, that changed

783
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 1: the way that appointments to Senate seats work. So previously

784
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 1: the governor, who again is a Democrat at this point,

785
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: would have carte blanche of being able to fill the

786
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,240
Speaker 1: seat with whoever he wants and then, you know, schedule

787
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 1: a special election to more permanently fill the seat. They

788
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 1: changed it so that the legislature, or the Republican dominated legislature,

789
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: would pick three different candidates, all of whom I'm sure

790
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: would be a Republican, and then the governor would have

791
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: to pick from amongst those three and it it's selected

792
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 1: by the legislature. So Andy basheer vetoed this piece of

793
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 1: legislation saying this is not constitutional. It used to be

794
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 1: that senators were chosen directly by the state legislature, but

795
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: I believe it's the seventeenth Amendment of the Constitution says

796
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: that this will you know that that's not how it's done,

797
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 1: and if there needs to be an appointment, it will

798
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: be handled by the state executive. So he is saying

799
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: it's not constitutional that I get to say that's what

800
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 1: the constitution says, and you can't limit my choices like that.

801
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 1: There's also a provision in the Kentucky State Constitution that

802
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: he pointed to as well. Now he has gotten questions

803
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: about if there is a vacancy here because of Mitch

804
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 1: McConnell's health, what will you do, And he's basically refused

805
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: to say whether he would pick from the list given

806
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 1: to him by the legislature, whether he would challenge the

807
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 1: statute in court, whether he would just pick someone else

808
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 1: and then let them challenge him, what exactly he would do.

809
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,800
Speaker 1: And again, you know, this is touchy for him because

810
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: it's a state but where he's popular and facing reelection,

811
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: et cetera. So he's trying to navigate that as well.

812
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: So it's comments specifically were there is no senate vacancy.

813
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 1: Senator mc connell has said he's going to serve on

814
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 1: his term and I believe him, So I'm not going

815
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: to speculate about something that hasn't happened and isn't going

816
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 1: to happen. Asked whether voters deserve to know his stance

817
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 1: on the issue, but Sheer said he would not quote

818
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: sensationalize McConnell's health. So that's kind of where things stand

819
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 1: right now. This could end up in, you know, if

820
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,280
Speaker 1: there was a vacancy there could end up in basically

821
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 1: like a messy legal battle in terms of who is

822
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 1: chosen to fill the seat. So that's the backstory in

823
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: terms of Kentucky. To go back just to the central

824
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 1: issue here though, about McConnell's health. First of all, if

825
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 1: you look at pictures of him now versus just not

826
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: that long ago, it is crazy. I mean, and you

827
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: can see we all have had loved ones, elderly loved

828
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 1: ones in our lives that you see this happen. There's

829
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 1: like a point where you know, it's just it goes

830
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 1: downhill pretty quickly and it is sad, and you know,

831
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: I'm not particularly like, I have no love for Mitch McConnell,

832
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: but it's still even with him hard to watch. These

833
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 1: on camera freeze ups are really horrifying. So for him

834
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 1: to try to gaslight everybody of like, well, it's not

835
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: a seizure, so don't worry about it's not a stroke,

836
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 1: so don't worry about it. But I'm not going to

837
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 1: affirmatively tell you what is going on. Listen, It's possible

838
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: that whatever is happening here is consistent with him being

839
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 1: able to perform the duties of what is an incredibly

840
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: important job with a lot of power. But the American

841
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: people deserve to know what is actually going on so

842
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 1: that they can make that determination for themselves, and so

843
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: you know, I know, we can harp on these age

844
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: issues sometimes we've been talking about with Biden, We've been

845
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: talking about for a long time with Finestein. I talked

846
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: about with McConnell. You did a fantastic monologue about the

847
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 1: overall age creeping up and up and up of the

848
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 1: United States Senate in particular. But in some ways it

849
00:39:54,520 --> 00:40:00,120
Speaker 1: is just such a central symptom of the decline of

850
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: our country and the breakdown of actual democracy in the country.

851
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 1: Because it's Mitch McConnell has a very low approval rating

852
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,439
Speaker 1: in the state of Kentucky, and yeah, he's still there.

853
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 1: Diane Feinstein, California voters do not want Dian Feinstein representing them,

854
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 1: which she's not even doing at this point. In the state,

855
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 1: voters are saying with both Trump and Biden, I mean,

856
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 1: Trump's not a young man either, that they're worried about

857
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,760
Speaker 1: their age. Now they're more worried about Biden. But voters

858
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 1: are overwhelming and saying we want different choices than that,

859
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: and yet we seem locked into this sclerotic system where

860
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: we have to watch these people on camera rought in

861
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:35,280
Speaker 1: decay before our eyes.

862
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 2: It is very troubled, it's sad, and it actually recalls

863
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 2: the original debate around the seventeenth Amendment.

864
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 3: We don't have the poster anymore. I used to have it.

865
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 2: The William Jennings Bryan you know, William Jennings Bryan in

866
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 2: the Populast Party back in the eighteen nineties were the

867
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 2: people who directly advocated for the eventual seventeenth Amendment because

868
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: they correctly called out that the corruption of the Gilded

869
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,280
Speaker 2: Age made it so that people could just buy their sentencies,

870
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 2: which is what's happening.

871
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, people should.

872
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 2: If you've never heard of him, look up a guy

873
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 2: named Mark Hannah or any of these other titans of

874
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 2: that time period who were able to just you know,

875
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 2: finagle by Senate seats. One of my favorite stories is

876
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: the William Randolph Hurst, who is the eventual newspaper Magne.

877
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 2: His father was a very rich man in California. He's like, yeah,

878
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 2: it got to be a senator, and he just bought

879
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 2: the Senate seat outright, and he died as a senator.

880
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 2: I mean it must be nice, right, whenever you had

881
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 2: a ton of money. They directly advocated for popular election

882
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 2: because they saw how corrupt the state legislature system was.

883
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 2: And it reminds me really this age issue around the

884
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 2: same things where by the eighteen nineties and the eventual

885
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 2: passage of the seventeenth Amendment, it was undeniable.

886
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 3: This is ludicrous and the people were fed up with it.

887
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 3: We have got to.

888
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,439
Speaker 2: Get to that point, and we're reaching similar systemic levels

889
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 2: of insanity. Put this up there on the screen from

890
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 2: Diane Feinstein. She spoke to the San Francisco Chronicle and

891
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 2: she completely forgot that she had given the power of

892
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 2: attorney to her daughter in the fight over her husband's estate.

893
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 2: She says, quote, I gave no permission to do anything.

894
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 2: This is one of those obstinate great grandma moments. Or

895
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 2: she's like, no, I didn't. I didn't, I didn't say

896
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 2: I wasn't gonna run, And then the staff is like,

897
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 2: no you did, and she's like, oh, I did, okay,

898
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 2: and it's like you're gone. She's gone, Like we're miles

899
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: past that moment. Her mind is lost. It's very sad,

900
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 2: and it would be sad if she was just still

901
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 2: a great grandma and living her life. She's a multimillionaire.

902
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 2: She cats you know I always say this, what are

903
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 2: you doing here? Go to NAPA, Just relax, Nobody's gonna care.

904
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 2: But you choose to put yourself through this. The people

905
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 2: around you are so shameless to continue to prop you

906
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 2: up this conspiracy with Pelosi in order to make sure

907
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 2: that their candidate Adam Schiff gets the seat. I mean,

908
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 2: this is jet I want people to really take that

909
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 2: this is just as corruptive as we're going on in

910
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: eighteen ninety. Sure money's not changing hands, but democracy is

911
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 2: being boarded at the highest level.

912
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 3: It's just outrageous. And to totally biparisan problem.

913
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 1: And to connect it back to, you know, the conversation

914
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 1: about Biden and Trump and both of them refusing at

915
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: this point to debate. Part of how Feinstein got reelected

916
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: is she refused to debate. I mean she did not

917
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: allow her allow the scrutiny of a true democratic process,

918
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 1: small de democratic process, and she was not really elected

919
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: based on this democratic will of the people. She was

920
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 1: elected because there was a Democratic Party protection racket around

921
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 1: her involving Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, even though the

922
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 1: state Party wanted to move on and we're backing her

923
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: opponent in that primary and probably knew a lot more

924
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 1: of what was going on than the public do did

925
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 1: at that point and in retrospect, and that's how she

926
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 1: ends up back in that seat. And now it's clear

927
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: as day the way that Pelosi in particular is protecting

928
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,320
Speaker 1: her like crazy. I mean, her daughter is like following

929
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,919
Speaker 1: Feinstein a round as our personal aid, et cetera, all

930
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:49,240
Speaker 1: because she shamelessly wants to make sure that Adam Schiff

931
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: gets that seat over the other Democratic primary contenders. And

932
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: so that's what we mean when we talk about this

933
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 1: breakdown of democracy. Listen, maybe if she had done debates

934
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 1: and the public had high an ability to evaluate her,

935
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: maybe they still would have voted for her. It's certainly possible,

936
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 1: but now we'll never know because they didn't have enough

937
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,839
Speaker 1: respect for the voters to go in front of him

938
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 1: and actually allow them a real chance to evaluate this candidate.

939
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:17,320
Speaker 1: And it's not just here. It's with McConnell, it's with Biden,

940
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: it's with Trump, it's with god knows how many others

941
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: of these individuals, and you know, it really really is

942
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 1: a disgrace. Yep. All right, let's talk a little bit

943
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: about some things that are going on. With the economy,

944
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 1: which could end up being the biggest story of the

945
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 1: coming years. This term doom loop is getting used now

946
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 1: over and over again to describe basically a downward spiral,

947
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: and specifically with regard to commercial real estate. Put this

948
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,280
Speaker 1: report up on the screen from the Wall Street Journal.

949
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: Their headline is real estate doom loop threatens America's banks.

950
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 1: Regional banks exposure to commercial real estate is more substantial

951
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 1: than it appears. So the Wall Street Journal did an

952
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 1: analysis of the level of debt that was held by

953
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 1: especially mid levels or regional banks, the level of commercial

954
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 1: debt that they held, and also they say that in

955
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 1: addition to that direct exposure, many of these banks also

956
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 1: lent to financial companies that make loans to some of

957
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 1: those same landlords and bonds backed by the same type

958
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 1: of properties, and that indirect lending, if you include that

959
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 1: amounts to equivalent and equivalent of twenty percent of their deposits.

960
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 1: That gives you a sense of the massive amount of

961
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:41,399
Speaker 1: exposure that these regional banks have. Put the next chart

962
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 1: up on the screen so people can visualize this. This,

963
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,799
Speaker 1: they say, is a cumulative change in commercial real estate

964
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: exposure since March twenty fifteen, by bank size. This was

965
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 1: based on analysis of FDIC data. You can see large

966
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 1: banks have some exposure, but there are a much higher

967
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: level of risk for the sort of regional and local

968
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 1: banks which have already been made more vulnerable by FED

969
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 1: interest rate hikes that you know, pushed some who were

970
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 1: kind of outliers in a sense, but still could be

971
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: canaries and the coal mine like Silicon Valley Bank over

972
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 1: the edge. Now, as we've discussed before, the reason we're

973
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 1: harping on commercial real estate in particular is because during COVID,

974
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 1: obviously a lot of office workers worked from home, and

975
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 1: now remote work and hybrid work schedules have left so

976
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 1: much of big city office space vacant. The values of

977
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:43,359
Speaker 1: those buildings have collapsed and are continuing to collapse. We're

978
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 1: seeing that in real time the number of sales of

979
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 1: those type of properties is down like seventy percent, so

980
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 1: it's just fallen off a cliff. Many people who hold

981
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 1: these type of properties they're trying to wait out the storm,

982
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 1: so they don't actually want to sell right now because

983
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,879
Speaker 1: they're kind of afraid of how bad the valuation would be.

984
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 1: And at the same time, a lot of their debt

985
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: comes due over the next couple of years, and if

986
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 1: they did have to roll over and refinance, we now

987
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:12,760
Speaker 1: have much higher rates than what existed in the past.

988
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: So they're under a massive amount of pressure. And that

989
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,919
Speaker 1: means that the banks that hold this debt are going

990
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 1: to be under a massive amount of pressure. And it

991
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 1: seems very unlikely at this point, given that you know,

992
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 1: hybrid work schedules I think are here to stay, and

993
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: given the difficulty of converting these spaces into residential units,

994
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 1: it seems very difficult to imagine what gets them out

995
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 1: of this terrible situation.

996
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: Big problem.

997
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's one of those where and by the way,

998
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 2: I was not aware of how much of commercial real

999
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 2: estate floats on variable interest loans. I guess everyone just

1000
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 2: got real comfortable, didn't they during twenty tents?

1001
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, they like zero interest rate would last forever.

1002
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 3: It's crazy.

1003
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 2: I'm reading this and I'm like, did en nobody ever

1004
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 2: price in the fact that we could go to five percent,

1005
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 2: Because when you do, then the entire cast lost, like

1006
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 2: the cost projection of your property, takes a dive. Then

1007
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 2: you take and that's in normal times. Then you take

1008
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 2: a situation like COVID and you take a black swan event,

1009
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:13,240
Speaker 2: you're getting absolutely wiped out, and the exposure here is wild.

1010
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:16,240
Speaker 2: I mean, we're talking trillions and trillions of dollars across

1011
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 2: apartment and office and apartment lending, construction loans, small business loans,

1012
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 2: commercial mortgage backed securities, real estate investor loans, and then

1013
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: other assets linked to actual commercial properties. The Wall Street

1014
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 2: Journal has been doing fantastic work on this, and I

1015
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 2: just don't think that they and other analysts in the

1016
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 2: space won't continue to use doom loop unless.

1017
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 3: They mean it. I mean, and I look at this

1018
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 3: crystal and I.

1019
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 2: Just see basically no way out except for a bailout.

1020
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 2: I mean, there's just no way that these real estate

1021
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 2: billionaires who have their entire fortunes that are pegged to

1022
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,839
Speaker 2: their real estate asset portfolios. You really think you take

1023
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: a forty fifty percent haircut and they're gonna let the

1024
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 2: downtown go bankrupt. There's no way it's not gonna. I'm

1025
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 2: not saying I think it's just I'm saying I'm looking

1026
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 2: at this bail out as coming one hundred percent. There's

1027
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 2: no way that they'll let the billionaires go bankrupt on

1028
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 2: this or even the small regional banks everybody will come

1029
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 2: up with some you know, reason, et cetera. Why, but

1030
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 2: we're either a year out, maybe a year and a

1031
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 2: half out. Who knows, there's no way interest rates are

1032
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 2: going to zero again. It really looks from basically what

1033
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 2: I've read, where a lot of these loans don't even

1034
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:17,919
Speaker 2: make sense over two percent, and then you know that's

1035
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: with vacancy, and considering where we are with that, it's

1036
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 2: a catastrophe. And the one of the reasons why everyone

1037
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 2: should care about this is that if small banks and

1038
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 2: regional banks and all that stuff get wiped out, that

1039
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 2: has a huge downstream effect. Not only does it consolidate

1040
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,319
Speaker 2: even more so the Power and Chase, Manhattan Bank and

1041
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:37,839
Speaker 2: all these other bank JP, Morgan Chase, all these other

1042
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 2: Bank of America, City Bank, all these other people. It

1043
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 2: dramatically restricts the ability for people to get loans for

1044
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 2: a normal, everyday life, like mortgages, the small business. I mean,

1045
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 2: there's so many different car loans whatever. You basically just

1046
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 2: have a one dealer and then their terms. You set

1047
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 2: the market and that's it. So what are you going

1048
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: to do if you need a house or something? You

1049
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 2: go to your small regional bank or whatever to get

1050
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 2: that those days maybe over these banks go under.

1051
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 1: From what I can tell, this is the biggest risk

1052
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 1: of catastrophe that is hanging over our economy right now, because,

1053
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 1: I mean, the math just doesn't work out. And the

1054
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 1: reason that they've deemed this a quote doom loop is

1055
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:21,320
Speaker 1: because of what you're pointing to Soccer. Effectively, if losses

1056
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:25,359
Speaker 1: on those loans occur in massive amounts, then what are

1057
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 1: the banks going to do. They're going to cut their

1058
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:29,959
Speaker 1: lending back because they, you know, are trying to cut

1059
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:33,280
Speaker 1: back on their risk. Then that leads to further drops

1060
00:50:33,320 --> 00:50:36,879
Speaker 1: in property prices and even more losses, and on and

1061
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 1: on we go. That's the doom loop that there's describing here.

1062
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 1: And it's hard to see how any other future comes

1063
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 1: to pass given what we know about office vacancy, Given

1064
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 1: what we know about i mean, the extraordinary level of

1065
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: price decline for these properties, given the the interest rate

1066
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 1: and how much they have come up, and how that

1067
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,879
Speaker 1: makes so many of these loans not work. It's hard

1068
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 1: for me to see how this one ends ends well,

1069
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,359
Speaker 1: So this is one we're going to keep our eyes on.

1070
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 1: The Other thing that we've been really keeping our eyes

1071
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 1: on is housing, which I think is you know, actually stolen.

1072
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,919
Speaker 1: When he was talking about like, why do people feel

1073
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 1: so bad about the Biden economy, He's like, I think

1074
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 1: it's housing, And I think there's a pretty good case to.

1075
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:25,360
Speaker 3: Be made about that.

1076
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, when you can't, I mean that's like the basic

1077
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:31,799
Speaker 1: basic building block of a stable life is like can

1078
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 1: I afford the rent? Can I ever conceive of buying

1079
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 1: a house? And increasingly, for more and more Americans, the

1080
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 1: answer is no. Apparently suburbs have been particularly hard hit

1081
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:46,800
Speaker 1: in terms of rising rents. This is another Wall Street

1082
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: Journal piece. They say that suburban rent growth exceeds its

1083
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 1: urban counterpart in twenty eight of thirty three metro areas,

1084
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 1: according to a new study. This is yet another post

1085
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 1: pandemic and pandemic era trend where during the pandemic, people

1086
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 1: wanted to get out of the city. They wanted more space,

1087
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 1: they wanted to be able to move around and not

1088
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 1: be so confined, and they office workers were working from

1089
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 1: homes so they didn't have to worry about their commute,

1090
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 1: and so people fled a lot of these urban centers.

1091
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,440
Speaker 1: And guess what, They've decided that they like where they

1092
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 1: are and they want to stay. So the suburbs have

1093
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 1: seen huge growth, and with that growth has come a

1094
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 1: lot of pressure on the rental market. So it's becoming

1095
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: super expensive to afford an apartment in a lot of

1096
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 1: suburbs across the country. What they say is that many

1097
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,800
Speaker 1: white collar workers remote jobs move down to city apartments

1098
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 1: for roomy or accommodations during the early months. Now, high

1099
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 1: mortgage rates and home prices are keeping some of those

1100
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 1: families renting for longer periods. Rise in crime and homelessness

1101
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 1: in several big cities also has some renters looking to

1102
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 1: the suburbs. That trend is propping up rents and fueling

1103
00:52:56,680 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: concerns about rental affordability in suburban areas. Is leading some

1104
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 1: governments to pass new rent control measures in response. And actually,

1105
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 1: if you look across the country, some of the biggest

1106
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:13,759
Speaker 1: activist energy is actually around tenant protections and rent controls

1107
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 1: and trying to deal with this crisis of affordability. Huge

1108
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,879
Speaker 1: energy around this across the country. And they point to

1109
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,800
Speaker 1: Montgomery County, Maryland, and Peg County Prince George's County, Maryland.

1110
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 1: Both of them are Washington DC suburbs that have taken

1111
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 1: some real steps in response to this affordability crisis. But

1112
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:34,360
Speaker 1: this is, you know, this is a massive issue for

1113
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 1: a lot of people who are just trying to have

1114
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: a little bit more room and have been priced out

1115
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 1: of the housing market, but are now starting to be

1116
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 1: priced out of the rental market as well.

1117
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 2: Rust of are the rental market? What are people supposed

1118
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 2: to do? And you know, I'm somewhat sympathetic too. Some

1119
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:48,719
Speaker 2: of these people they want to buy, they want to

1120
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 2: buy a house in suburbs. Guess what now with an

1121
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:52,400
Speaker 2: eight percent interest rate, that ain't going to happen. So

1122
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 2: what are they supposed to do?

1123
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 3: You got a rent? Well, if you got a rent,

1124
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 3: then you're pushing somebody else out of that house. So

1125
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 3: they would have done.

1126
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 2: Now they're in a multi family home and they're now

1127
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 2: somebody else is homeless or even somewhere an hour away

1128
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:03,000
Speaker 2: and has a terrible commute.

1129
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 3: So it's a bad system all the way around. I

1130
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 3: think housing is number one looking at this too.

1131
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 2: I mean, I just don't know how you fix it

1132
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:12,400
Speaker 2: because when you got massive construction loan rates and all

1133
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 2: that stuff, it's not like people going to be building

1134
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 2: new things. Developers are Actually there is a big boom

1135
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:20,240
Speaker 2: right now, luckily in terms of what people are developing,

1136
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 2: but the overall price to justify your build it's going

1137
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 2: to be high.

1138
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 3: Yeah who can afford that? Well, probably not you.

1139
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the issue is there is actually a lot

1140
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 1: of development that is happening right now, but it's high

1141
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 1: end because that's where the money is. So it doesn't

1142
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 1: seem like a problem that just like letting the free

1143
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 1: market do its thing is going to solve. You're going

1144
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:43,840
Speaker 1: in order to build out the number of units you

1145
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 1: would need in order to make housing anything approaching affordable

1146
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,320
Speaker 1: at this point, it's going to take some direct government involvement.

1147
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 1: You know, probably these cities and localities are doing everything

1148
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 1: they can, but they don't have the level of funds

1149
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 1: that at the state level, let alone the federal level.

1150
00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 1: So you're really going to need this. Something that was

1151
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 1: proposed in the Build Back Better Bill originally was a

1152
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 1: lot of money to fund and incentivize construction of these affordable,

1153
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:11,280
Speaker 1: you know, more affordable units. Montgomery County has been pretty

1154
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 1: innovative in some of their like public private partnerships and

1155
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: mixed income apartment building living. There's some interesting like pilot

1156
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,960
Speaker 1: projects that are happening here close to DC, but of

1157
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 1: course it's nowhere near the scale that would be needed

1158
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: to deal with this problem.

1159
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,400
Speaker 2: This is a multi trillion dollar issue. It would require

1160
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 2: the actual attention of the president, and just like everything

1161
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,359
Speaker 2: else in our politics, no one is going to pay

1162
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 2: attention to those guys until it breaks completely.

1163
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 3: That's what I was talking about, bailout.

1164
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 2: That we will resolve this problem when there's a bailout,

1165
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 2: when there's an actual complete bottom falls, even though everyone

1166
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 2: can see that it's coming. I would bet you if

1167
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 2: you ask, you know, ten people in the White House,

1168
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 2: maybe one guy, that junior guy has someone on his radar.

1169
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 3: The President probably has no idea. Yeah, it's gone, and

1170
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:51,520
Speaker 3: that's our system that we don't do anything until.

1171
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:54,719
Speaker 1: Well that is so true. And if when there is

1172
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:58,280
Speaker 1: a single bank that fails, then DC will pay attention.

1173
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 1: But when you have you know, people get kicked out

1174
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 1: on the street and can't afford the rent and they're

1175
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,239
Speaker 1: just completely screwed. Well that's not we can deal with that,

1176
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 1: you know, a decade from now. But the minute that

1177
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 1: it's a bank and their investors and whatever that are

1178
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 1: in trouble, then they'll op.

1179
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 2: To Yeah, wait, till the billionaires actually start to suffer,

1180
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:16,279
Speaker 2: and then maybe we'll start to pay a defension. All right,

1181
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 2: let's talk about college. There's some really interesting stuff going

1182
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 2: on in the college space. People know I care a

1183
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:22,879
Speaker 2: lot about this issue. I wanted to give a big

1184
00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 2: shout out this big show for the Wall Street Journal.

1185
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 2: Journal came out with a new ranking system which we

1186
00:56:29,239 --> 00:56:32,840
Speaker 2: really I really commend because it's really important for people

1187
00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 2: who are trying to evaluate if college is worth it,

1188
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 2: whether it's worth it, and what college to go to

1189
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 2: to answer a couple of basic questions. What we all

1190
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:42,280
Speaker 2: know already is about student debt, and of course student

1191
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:45,160
Speaker 2: debt and intuition is astronomical. So the way that people

1192
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:48,280
Speaker 2: even justified debt is a single question, can I actually

1193
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,560
Speaker 2: make enough money in order to pay this off and

1194
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: in a reasonable timeframe and also make decent living and

1195
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 2: better prospects.

1196
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:56,919
Speaker 3: Than if I hadn't gone to college at all.

1197
00:56:57,080 --> 00:57:00,600
Speaker 2: For many majors, for many universities, there have been on

1198
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 2: the wrong side of that trade millions and millions of people,

1199
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,160
Speaker 2: But for some places it is worth it. So how

1200
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:07,840
Speaker 2: do you identify one of the biggest problems with student

1201
00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 2: debt in particular the borrowers for are the most screwed

1202
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:13,479
Speaker 2: are the people who take out loans from college, don't

1203
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 2: graduate on time or don't graduate at all, and who

1204
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:17,840
Speaker 2: have a huge amount of student debt and don't get

1205
00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 2: the wage premium. So what the journal data is. They

1206
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 2: created this new ranking system. Let's put it up there

1207
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 2: on the screen. Where the vast majority of the weight

1208
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 2: in this ranking system is will this university push you

1209
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 2: to graduate on time, actually have an on time graduation rate?

1210
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 2: And number two, will it have a good wage premium

1211
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 2: over the average high school earner wage. What they came

1212
00:57:43,320 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 2: up with is a good list of which they say

1213
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 2: Princeton University, MIT, Yale, Stanford, Columbia, Harvard, University of Pennsylvania

1214
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 2: are in the top seven. But from there that's where

1215
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 2: actually things start to get interesting. Amherst College, Claremont, McKenna, Babson, Swarthmore,

1216
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 2: Georgetown University, Vanderbilt, Bandy, Lehigh University, University of Florida, Duke University,

1217
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 2: Rose Homan Institute of Technology, the California Institute of Technology,

1218
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 2: the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Brigham Young University. What

1219
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 2: they point to in their college ranking systems, Crystal is

1220
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 2: that they are able to show that these universities and

1221
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 2: of course look Ivy League and all that the wage premium.

1222
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 3: We've all known about that. So it's not a surprise

1223
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 3: for the top ten.

1224
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 2: But to see somebody like Babson at number ten, okay,

1225
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 2: why so I did a little bit of digging. Babson

1226
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 2: is one of those colleges where they require freshman courses

1227
00:58:31,960 --> 00:58:35,160
Speaker 2: on business. They actually place you inside of real businesses

1228
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:36,920
Speaker 2: from a very early on age.

1229
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 3: They make you a really good manager.

1230
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 2: It's like a targeted college, and the people who go there,

1231
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 2: they're pitch to you is like, we not only are

1232
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 2: going to get you a job, you're going to learn

1233
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:46,600
Speaker 2: how to run a business from a very very young age.

1234
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 2: And you know now that you and I do this,

1235
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 2: it's hard. It's a real skill set to be able

1236
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:53,560
Speaker 2: to get that when you're twenty invaluable. So people like

1237
00:58:53,600 --> 00:58:56,760
Speaker 2: Claremont McKenna as well even Amherst, some of these smaller

1238
00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 2: liberal arts colleges. It's not just engineering that's coming out

1239
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 2: from the it's targeted, actual working with people to develop

1240
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 2: their interest early on, line them up with a genuine skill,

1241
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 2: and then put them into the robust alumni network to

1242
00:59:10,920 --> 00:59:13,919
Speaker 2: get them into a decent, high paying job. And really

1243
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 2: what came through, I think in terms of the colleges

1244
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 2: was that if you know things do align for you, you

1245
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 2: could make some pretty good money whenever you graduate from

1246
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 2: one of these institutions. So just to give everybody an idea,

1247
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 2: they have the wage premium here Princeton University, their average

1248
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 2: graduate for their average graduate is making eighty three thousand dollars,

1249
00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 2: almost more than the average high school graduate yearly salary

1250
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:39,680
Speaker 2: whenever they graduate.

1251
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:41,480
Speaker 3: That's got a lot of money. It's over one hundred

1252
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Mit.

1253
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 2: Of course, you know technology field, but as I mentioned

1254
00:59:45,600 --> 00:59:47,959
Speaker 2: about Amherst, I mean they're making fifty one thousand dollars

1255
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 2: over the average earner. Babson is making eighty two almost

1256
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,160
Speaker 2: thousand dollars more. So, So what are we learning from

1257
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 2: this is that actual it's about skill, and it's about

1258
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 2: realigning that skill with your graduation on time rate, racking

1259
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 2: it up and putting against debt, and thinking about your

1260
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 2: longtime actual premium. When you put those three things together,

1261
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:08,640
Speaker 2: that's where college is worth it.

1262
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:10,479
Speaker 3: I've always said this, I think way too many people

1263
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 3: go to college.

1264
01:00:11,320 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 2: Many people go to and study things that just don't

1265
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:16,240
Speaker 2: make any real economic sense, and so this is a

1266
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 2: great way of actually putting it together where the stars

1267
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:22,600
Speaker 2: really aligned for graduates, where it's way more so worth

1268
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 2: it than if you were just going to go to

1269
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 2: a trade school in the first place.

1270
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 3: I'm a huge fan of trade schools.

1271
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 2: I think we should vastly fund more so whenever I

1272
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:31,280
Speaker 2: posted this, actually a lot of people who work in

1273
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:32,800
Speaker 2: the trades were like, I make more money than that

1274
01:00:32,840 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 2: picking up garbage, and I was like, great, I'm happy

1275
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 2: about that.

1276
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 3: Actually, so people should have that available to them.

1277
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 2: But for those who are considering it, this is a

1278
01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 2: great way to actually look into evaluate college. And I

1279
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 2: think a lot of people are kind of waking up

1280
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:46,880
Speaker 2: to what I was describing the just the generic idea

1281
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 2: of like the tick in the box, like I'm going

1282
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: to take out one hundred in debt and go to college.

1283
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:50,760
Speaker 3: We shouldn't do that anymore.

1284
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 1: I think this information is just very useful, super you know.

1285
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:57,800
Speaker 1: And I was initially a little uncomfortable, frankly, because first

1286
01:00:57,800 --> 01:01:00,439
Speaker 1: of all, I think, you know, people are more than

1287
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:03,360
Speaker 1: just what their earning capacity is. And I also think

1288
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 1: that there are the whole point of an education isn't

1289
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:09,760
Speaker 1: just to be able to cash in on that educational right.

1290
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 1: But they, you know, they acknowledge that. I mean, they

1291
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:15,120
Speaker 1: say that the scores are based on three factors. Student

1292
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:17,360
Speaker 1: outcomes account for seventy percent of the reakings. That's what

1293
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 1: Soccer's been talking about, basically, like how much does it cost?

1294
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:21,920
Speaker 1: And how much are you likely to earn? The learning

1295
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 1: environment is twenty percent and diversity is ten percent. And

1296
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 1: they broke down for people who are evaluating college based

1297
01:01:29,520 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: on other criteria than just like Okay, what am I

1298
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 1: likely to earn if I go to the school and

1299
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 1: how much is it going to cost me? They have

1300
01:01:36,120 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 1: other lists that focus on social mobility ranking. You know,

1301
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 1: how does this cut this? That's something we looked at

1302
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 1: before the city cost New York, That's right. Which colleges

1303
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,160
Speaker 1: do the best at elevating like working class people into

1304
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 1: the upper middle class, Like if you want to you know,

1305
01:01:49,520 --> 01:01:52,280
Speaker 1: if you want upper mobility, what's the best college to

1306
01:01:52,320 --> 01:01:55,440
Speaker 1: go to? They have a student experience ranking just for

1307
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 1: if you're looking, you know, for that real college life experience.

1308
01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 1: You can look at that as well well. And so

1309
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 1: I did feel like they took a sort of wholesome

1310
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 1: view of this. I think there are a lot of

1311
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:07,880
Speaker 1: different reasons why people go to college increasingly, and I

1312
01:02:07,920 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 1: actually think that this is sad. People view a liberal

1313
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:16,160
Speaker 1: arts education as basically a luxury for students, for students

1314
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 1: who are wealth whose families are wealthy enough that they

1315
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about what salary they're going to

1316
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 1: earn when they come out of college. And I do

1317
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 1: think the reason I say that I think that's sad

1318
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 1: is because I do think that there is value to

1319
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 1: education and learning about you know, history and great works

1320
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:37,400
Speaker 1: of art and literature beyond just can I convert that

1321
01:02:37,560 --> 01:02:41,680
Speaker 1: into a salary. But given how much pressure there is

1322
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:44,840
Speaker 1: on you know, millennials and now on gen z just

1323
01:02:44,880 --> 01:02:47,200
Speaker 1: to be able to survive, or just talking about the

1324
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,720
Speaker 1: cost of housing, I think, you know, increasingly, that's the

1325
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:55,080
Speaker 1: that's the primary focus of students going into colleges, like

1326
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:57,360
Speaker 1: is this going to be worth it? What am I

1327
01:02:57,400 --> 01:02:59,480
Speaker 1: going to get out of this experience? How quickly can

1328
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 1: I get through college so that I can get into

1329
01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:04,840
Speaker 1: actual earning and convert this investment I'm making into myself

1330
01:03:04,840 --> 01:03:07,959
Speaker 1: into actual dollars in an ability to live I think that's,

1331
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 1: you know, the reality that people are living in now,

1332
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 1: and it's great to have some information that helps people

1333
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:17,520
Speaker 1: to sort those things through because it is very complex

1334
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 1: and it's very difficult to do this kind of evaluation

1335
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:21,400
Speaker 1: on your own.

1336
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:23,840
Speaker 2: It's important, it's nearly impossible, actually, because a lot of

1337
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 2: this data is actually very difficult to find, and it

1338
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:28,920
Speaker 2: also fits very neatly with there's a reason why gen

1339
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:31,480
Speaker 2: Z and create it increasingly does not look at college

1340
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 2: as a good trade.

1341
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 3: So we have that we can put this up.

1342
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 2: There on the screen where they go into a little

1343
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:38,840
Speaker 2: bit of the detail about how people feel about this.

1344
01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:40,960
Speaker 2: And one of the reason why is that college tuition

1345
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:43,720
Speaker 2: from twenty ten to twenty twenty two has risen an

1346
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:47,640
Speaker 2: average quote of twelve percent per year, while overall inflation

1347
01:03:47,720 --> 01:03:50,760
Speaker 2: only increased on average two point six per percent per year. Today,

1348
01:03:50,840 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 2: it costs one hundred and four thousand dollars on average

1349
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 2: to attend a four year public university and two hundred

1350
01:03:57,200 --> 01:04:00,800
Speaker 2: and twenty three thousand dollars for a private University's completely

1351
01:04:00,920 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 2: unhinged and insane, especially if you are borrowing all of

1352
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:05,880
Speaker 2: that up to the hill and then lo and behold

1353
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:08,000
Speaker 2: let's go to the next one here, guys, please quote

1354
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:10,120
Speaker 2: the widening gap between the value and the cost of

1355
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:13,600
Speaker 2: college has shifted gen Z's attitude towards higher education. At

1356
01:04:13,600 --> 01:04:16,240
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, survey by Morning Consult found that forty

1357
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 2: one percent of gen Zer said that they tend to

1358
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:21,560
Speaker 2: trust US colleges and universities, at the lowest percentage of

1359
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:22,520
Speaker 2: any generation.

1360
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 3: I'm really glad to see that. It's very important.

1361
01:04:25,240 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 2: As I said, you can make if you're just looking

1362
01:04:27,440 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 2: for work life balance. I mean, there's a lot of

1363
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 2: things that you can find in the trades or not

1364
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:32,960
Speaker 2: having to go on to a college education.

1365
01:04:33,000 --> 01:04:34,800
Speaker 3: That doesn't mean you need some education. You still do.

1366
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 2: There are a lot of different certifications, all the things

1367
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 2: that you can go about. I know that there are

1368
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:40,280
Speaker 2: a lot of plumbers and all the people living very

1369
01:04:40,320 --> 01:04:42,720
Speaker 2: meaningful in great lives. And the reason why is because

1370
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:44,160
Speaker 2: they get to sert their own work schedules. Some those

1371
01:04:44,200 --> 01:04:45,840
Speaker 2: get to own their own business. There's a huge amount

1372
01:04:45,840 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 2: of upside potential too if you're able to only master

1373
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 2: the trade, but also master the business side of this.

1374
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:52,920
Speaker 2: The point though, is that people are starting to wake

1375
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:55,400
Speaker 2: up to that. Whereas I think our generation, Crystal, the

1376
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 2: millennial generation very much was like the liberal arts. Education

1377
01:04:59,040 --> 01:05:01,240
Speaker 2: is not only an attainable goal, it's a noble goal.

1378
01:05:01,480 --> 01:05:03,440
Speaker 2: And while I don't think that that's wrong, I do

1379
01:05:03,480 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 2: think it is Ultimately, I do believe it is a

1380
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:05,720
Speaker 2: luxury good.

1381
01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 1: Pushing everyone to college is really it was really a

1382
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:14,120
Speaker 1: neoliberal era thing where it's like, we're going to take

1383
01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:17,439
Speaker 1: the responsibility away from the government and push it onto you.

1384
01:05:17,680 --> 01:05:19,720
Speaker 1: And also, by the way, the costs are going to

1385
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:23,640
Speaker 1: be pushed onto you, and you know, you are responsible

1386
01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 1: for making sure you're able to make it in the

1387
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:28,760
Speaker 1: workplace and earn a decent salary. And if you are

1388
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:31,000
Speaker 1: a good girl or boy and you follow this program

1389
01:05:31,160 --> 01:05:32,760
Speaker 1: and you go to college, then you're going to be

1390
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:35,479
Speaker 1: set up for a solid middle class life. For many people,

1391
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 1: that ended up being a lie. I mean, especially for

1392
01:05:38,280 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 1: people who graduated out into the Great Recession. But even

1393
01:05:41,520 --> 01:05:44,200
Speaker 1: you know, people who are graduating out into this economy

1394
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:46,680
Speaker 1: are finding the same thing, and especially in terms of

1395
01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:49,120
Speaker 1: those basic building blocks of the middle class life. So

1396
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:51,920
Speaker 1: they took on all the debt, they did the thing

1397
01:05:52,440 --> 01:05:54,800
Speaker 1: that you know, they were told they were supposed to do,

1398
01:05:55,280 --> 01:05:58,640
Speaker 1: and then they still find themselves screwed. So not surprising

1399
01:05:58,680 --> 01:06:03,000
Speaker 1: that gen Z is taking a different approach or has

1400
01:06:03,040 --> 01:06:06,560
Speaker 1: a different view of what the college experience should be,

1401
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:08,760
Speaker 1: or whether or not they even think that that is

1402
01:06:08,760 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 1: for them.

1403
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:11,080
Speaker 2: Yes, and my last thing I'll say about this is

1404
01:06:11,120 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 2: stop prestige hunting. One of the most important takeaways from

1405
01:06:14,080 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 2: this thing was that places like Brown University it ranked

1406
01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:18,320
Speaker 2: number sixty six, even though it's.

1407
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:20,320
Speaker 3: In the IVY. Really yeah, because you don't make any money.

1408
01:06:20,440 --> 01:06:22,520
Speaker 2: It's the classic example if I took out a ton

1409
01:06:22,520 --> 01:06:25,720
Speaker 2: of debt, studied a major which didn't actually wasn't all

1410
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 2: that useful, and then.

1411
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,400
Speaker 3: Wasn't really able to get a job where it paid out.

1412
01:06:29,520 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 2: Johns Hopkins was number ninety nine, which is pathetic that

1413
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:35,439
Speaker 2: compared to prizes mat it's not. I mean, I'm sure

1414
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:38,200
Speaker 2: if you've just did engineering or bio degrees or whatever,

1415
01:06:38,240 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 2: I think would be different, But that's not where a

1416
01:06:39,880 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 2: lot of their money comes from for their students. So

1417
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:45,800
Speaker 2: read and listen carefully, and you know, also take advantage

1418
01:06:45,840 --> 01:06:47,680
Speaker 2: of opportunities if you have them. I'm looking at this,

1419
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:49,840
Speaker 2: you know, University of Florida. If you live in Florida,

1420
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:51,160
Speaker 2: you don't need to pay a ton of money to

1421
01:06:51,200 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 2: go somewhere else. You can have a great school experience,

1422
01:06:53,720 --> 01:06:55,640
Speaker 2: you can have football, and you can get a decent

1423
01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:59,120
Speaker 2: job places like BAPS in Claremont McKenna. Do you know

1424
01:06:59,160 --> 01:07:01,320
Speaker 2: any of these other places where it's a little bit

1425
01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:03,840
Speaker 2: more accessible, just you know, check it out. Not everything

1426
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:05,880
Speaker 2: is just a prestige hunt. And you don't have to

1427
01:07:05,920 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 2: check a box for your parents or your grandparents or

1428
01:07:08,040 --> 01:07:09,680
Speaker 2: any of those things. This is mostly my monologue to

1429
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:10,480
Speaker 2: the Indian parents.

1430
01:07:10,800 --> 01:07:11,920
Speaker 1: I was going to say, I need to get Chris

1431
01:07:11,960 --> 01:07:13,800
Speaker 1: Matthews in here to talk to you about your tiger moment.

1432
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:16,000
Speaker 3: Yes, the thing is I did not even have a

1433
01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:16,480
Speaker 3: tiger moment.

1434
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:17,800
Speaker 2: Its a funny thing, but I mean I know a

1435
01:07:17,840 --> 01:07:19,640
Speaker 2: lot of people who did, and you know, without fail

1436
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:20,680
Speaker 2: and actually religion.

1437
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:21,720
Speaker 1: The funniest moments there.

1438
01:07:22,400 --> 01:07:23,920
Speaker 3: He said, you know what that's like. I was like, yeah,

1439
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:27,480
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, I guess around other Indian people.

1440
01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:27,840
Speaker 4: Sure.

1441
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:30,880
Speaker 3: Anyway, all right, let's get to the last part here.

1442
01:07:31,400 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 2: Mike Pence in a fascinating this is this is one

1443
01:07:34,680 --> 01:07:37,200
Speaker 2: of those moments which we could go back and study

1444
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:39,080
Speaker 2: that actually thinks is a very important speech, not for

1445
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:40,840
Speaker 2: the reasons that he thinks it is where he wants

1446
01:07:40,880 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 2: to reclaim the mantle of conservatism, but for the last

1447
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:47,680
Speaker 2: vestiges of what the establishment view will look like. Fighting

1448
01:07:47,720 --> 01:07:51,160
Speaker 2: against the tides of populous uprisings left and right. They

1449
01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:53,880
Speaker 2: are manifesting themselves in all sorts of ways, and Pence

1450
01:07:54,200 --> 01:07:56,320
Speaker 2: just being there, the very last guy trying to cling

1451
01:07:56,440 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 2: you know, at the end and pull everyone back, gives

1452
01:07:59,360 --> 01:08:02,600
Speaker 2: this big speed. It was in New Hampshire against populism

1453
01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:04,600
Speaker 2: and it's important the speech because it's not just about

1454
01:08:04,600 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 2: Trump populism, although that is the main target. It's about

1455
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:09,760
Speaker 2: populism left and right and why it is not the answer,

1456
01:08:09,800 --> 01:08:13,160
Speaker 2: why limited government reagunite conservatism is the real answer is

1457
01:08:13,200 --> 01:08:15,120
Speaker 2: what the Republican Party should try and reclaim.

1458
01:08:15,200 --> 01:08:16,120
Speaker 3: Here's what he had to say.

1459
01:08:16,280 --> 01:08:20,840
Speaker 5: Will we be the party of conservatism or will we

1460
01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:27,040
Speaker 5: follow the siren song of populism unmoored to conservative principles.

1461
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:31,680
Speaker 5: The future of this movement in this party belongs to

1462
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:37,200
Speaker 5: one or the other. But today another strain of this

1463
01:08:37,320 --> 01:08:42,720
Speaker 5: ideology challenges Conservatism, not from the Democratic Party but from

1464
01:08:42,720 --> 01:08:50,519
Speaker 5: within for control of the Republican Party. It takes the

1465
01:08:50,560 --> 01:08:55,559
Speaker 5: form of what's known as populism rather than progressivism. But

1466
01:08:55,640 --> 01:09:01,960
Speaker 5: make no mistake about it. Theologies are fellow travelers that

1467
01:09:02,000 --> 01:09:06,720
Speaker 5: the Republican populace would abandon American leadership on the world stage,

1468
01:09:06,840 --> 01:09:09,599
Speaker 5: embracing a posture of appeasement in the face of rising

1469
01:09:09,720 --> 01:09:16,120
Speaker 5: threats to freedom. Republican populace would blatantly erode our constitutional norms.

1470
01:09:17,600 --> 01:09:21,679
Speaker 5: A leading candidate for the Republican nomination last year called

1471
01:09:21,720 --> 01:09:26,599
Speaker 5: for the quote termination of all rules, regulations, and articles,

1472
01:09:26,640 --> 01:09:29,960
Speaker 5: even those found in the Constitution, and even after a

1473
01:09:30,120 --> 01:09:35,240
Speaker 5: historic victory for life, Republican populace would relegate the cause

1474
01:09:35,280 --> 01:09:40,320
Speaker 5: of protecting the unborn to the states, much in the

1475
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:43,160
Speaker 5: way during another time in the life of our nation,

1476
01:09:44,680 --> 01:09:48,240
Speaker 5: those who sought to preserve a great evil tried to

1477
01:09:48,320 --> 01:09:51,880
Speaker 5: leave that question to the states alone. We've come to

1478
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:57,400
Speaker 5: a Republican time for choosing. Will we embrace the traditional

1479
01:09:57,439 --> 01:10:00,240
Speaker 5: conservative agenda that's led our party and our nation to

1480
01:10:00,360 --> 01:10:04,639
Speaker 5: victory and prosperity now for more than a half a century,

1481
01:10:05,360 --> 01:10:07,240
Speaker 5: or will we choose to go down the path of

1482
01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:08,960
Speaker 5: populism and decline.

1483
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:11,760
Speaker 3: Oh man, there's so much to go and to say there.

1484
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:14,920
Speaker 2: I mean, first, I'm pretty sure he just compared saying

1485
01:10:14,960 --> 01:10:18,679
Speaker 2: that you should leave abortion to the states to slavery.

1486
01:10:18,880 --> 01:10:20,280
Speaker 3: So that's number one.

1487
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:24,320
Speaker 2: But two really is it's very clear that he believes

1488
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:26,960
Speaker 2: that the administration of the president that he served was

1489
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:29,320
Speaker 2: not only wrong just on January sixth, but was wrong

1490
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:31,280
Speaker 2: entirely from the very beginning.

1491
01:10:31,280 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 3: And that is where I just can't get over this

1492
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:34,080
Speaker 3: crystal content.

1493
01:10:34,120 --> 01:10:36,719
Speaker 2: Aside how he was craven enough to take the VP

1494
01:10:36,920 --> 01:10:39,599
Speaker 2: job whenever he had a chance of being the freaking president,

1495
01:10:39,920 --> 01:10:42,800
Speaker 2: he was craven enough to stand behind Donald Trump when

1496
01:10:42,880 --> 01:10:45,679
Speaker 2: Donald Trump gave American carnage, one of the most popular

1497
01:10:45,760 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 2: speeches delivered by an American president in an inauguration in

1498
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 2: all of US history, he.

1499
01:10:51,520 --> 01:10:52,280
Speaker 3: Didn't say anything.

1500
01:10:52,320 --> 01:10:55,439
Speaker 2: Then served him loyally all that, But now whenever he's

1501
01:10:55,479 --> 01:10:57,680
Speaker 2: running his own campaign, it's like the four years that

1502
01:10:57,680 --> 01:10:59,519
Speaker 2: he existed in the White House, none of it happened

1503
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 2: war that he was a part of or sat next

1504
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:02,840
Speaker 2: to Trump during.

1505
01:11:02,880 --> 01:11:03,960
Speaker 3: Apparently that was stupid.

1506
01:11:04,479 --> 01:11:06,280
Speaker 2: You know, any of the rhetoric or anything that Trump

1507
01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:09,240
Speaker 2: ran on twenty sixteen, he allegedly, I guess, just doesn't

1508
01:11:09,240 --> 01:11:11,240
Speaker 2: agree with any of that now, which makes me really

1509
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:13,000
Speaker 2: question all of this toun and be like, why should

1510
01:11:13,000 --> 01:11:15,000
Speaker 2: I believe a word that you say whenever it comes

1511
01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 2: to this, especially.

1512
01:11:16,040 --> 01:11:21,320
Speaker 1: When twenty sixteen Trump actually had a lot more truly

1513
01:11:21,479 --> 01:11:25,360
Speaker 1: populist elements to it, oh yeah, than current version of

1514
01:11:25,400 --> 01:11:29,640
Speaker 1: Trump totally. And and you know, we've seen the limits

1515
01:11:29,720 --> 01:11:32,320
Speaker 1: of the populism of Trump in terms of how he

1516
01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 1: actually governed. The fact that the biggest domestic policy initiative

1517
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:39,360
Speaker 1: they passed was a tax cut for the rich, something

1518
01:11:39,400 --> 01:11:42,120
Speaker 1: that I'm sure Mike Pence loved and felt very comfortable with.

1519
01:11:42,640 --> 01:11:45,160
Speaker 1: So it actually some pieces of it. It makes sense

1520
01:11:45,200 --> 01:11:47,280
Speaker 1: to me why Mike Pence stood by him during his

1521
01:11:47,360 --> 01:11:50,440
Speaker 1: time in office, because much of the agenda was basically

1522
01:11:50,520 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 1: like Reaganite, Paul Ryan engineered, Heritage Foundation, etc. But I

1523
01:11:56,360 --> 01:11:59,400
Speaker 1: also want to give some do to the main place

1524
01:11:59,439 --> 01:12:04,080
Speaker 1: where Trump actually departed from the prior Republican in Washington

1525
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 1: consensus was on trade and was on China. There genuinely

1526
01:12:07,720 --> 01:12:10,000
Speaker 1: was a shift there. It's now been embraced by Joe Biden,

1527
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:13,479
Speaker 1: who actually has gone further in certain regards than Trump

1528
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:17,640
Speaker 1: even went, especially with the industrial policy regarding semiconductors and

1529
01:12:17,680 --> 01:12:19,800
Speaker 1: some of the additional tariffs that he has levied in

1530
01:12:20,040 --> 01:12:22,479
Speaker 1: approach that he's taken to trade with China, and so

1531
01:12:23,000 --> 01:12:25,839
Speaker 1: it's formed the basis of kind of a new different

1532
01:12:25,880 --> 01:12:29,000
Speaker 1: consensus on trade, which I find to be really That's

1533
01:12:29,040 --> 01:12:30,400
Speaker 1: one of the few things I can say I feel

1534
01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:33,920
Speaker 1: actually encouraged about a new Washingt consensus form. And so

1535
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:36,720
Speaker 1: Mike Pence's speech here, which in a way I respect

1536
01:12:36,800 --> 01:12:39,800
Speaker 1: because I think he really believes what he's saying, more

1537
01:12:39,840 --> 01:12:42,200
Speaker 1: so than when he was defending parts of the Trump

1538
01:12:42,240 --> 01:12:45,120
Speaker 1: agenda that he didn't necessarily agree with. But his speech

1539
01:12:45,160 --> 01:12:49,560
Speaker 1: is basically, like anything that was good about the Trump administration,

1540
01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:52,160
Speaker 1: I want to make sure we go back to the

1541
01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:55,040
Speaker 1: ways that were worse, like anything that he actually got right,

1542
01:12:55,080 --> 01:12:57,280
Speaker 1: which in my opinion was a few things, but you

1543
01:12:57,320 --> 01:12:59,880
Speaker 1: know they were far like few and far between, but

1544
01:12:59,880 --> 01:13:01,880
Speaker 1: the were a few things. He's like those things I

1545
01:13:01,920 --> 01:13:05,320
Speaker 1: want to go in the other direction on and you know,

1546
01:13:05,880 --> 01:13:08,040
Speaker 1: it's you can see the writing on the wall, like

1547
01:13:08,120 --> 01:13:10,160
Speaker 1: it's a losing cause at this point. You can see

1548
01:13:10,160 --> 01:13:12,760
Speaker 1: the level of support that he's getting. You can see

1549
01:13:12,760 --> 01:13:15,240
Speaker 1: the level of support that there are a lot of

1550
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:20,519
Speaker 1: ideological brothers and sisters in the Republican primary field. You

1551
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:22,600
Speaker 1: can see the level of support that they're getting a

1552
01:13:22,680 --> 01:13:26,400
Speaker 1: lot of donor interest, but not a lot of base

1553
01:13:26,600 --> 01:13:29,880
Speaker 1: popular support at this point. So, like I said, I mean,

1554
01:13:29,880 --> 01:13:31,559
Speaker 1: in a way, I sort of respect it because I

1555
01:13:31,560 --> 01:13:33,559
Speaker 1: think it's true to who he is at this point.

1556
01:13:33,600 --> 01:13:37,280
Speaker 1: But it's also awkward given that you took the job

1557
01:13:37,320 --> 01:13:42,360
Speaker 1: as Trump's VP. Trump helped to usher in this different

1558
01:13:42,560 --> 01:13:45,200
Speaker 1: vibe within the Republican Party and mostly at this point

1559
01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:48,200
Speaker 1: is vibes versus policy, but different vibe in the Republican Party.

1560
01:13:48,200 --> 01:13:51,639
Speaker 1: You didn't say anything until now, and until you know,

1561
01:13:51,800 --> 01:13:54,120
Speaker 1: his supporters were running around the Capitol like wanting to

1562
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:57,600
Speaker 1: hang you. So it makes it complicated for him to

1563
01:13:57,760 --> 01:14:00,599
Speaker 1: both try to run on the Trump Pence agenda, which

1564
01:14:00,640 --> 01:14:03,559
Speaker 1: he does, yes, which he does all, but also assert

1565
01:14:03,880 --> 01:14:06,240
Speaker 1: like you know, I'm a return to this other thing

1566
01:14:06,280 --> 01:14:08,559
Speaker 1: and I'm actually really different from him. He's trying to

1567
01:14:08,560 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 1: have it both ways.

1568
01:14:09,400 --> 01:14:12,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, I am heartened to see that people

1569
01:14:12,080 --> 01:14:15,280
Speaker 2: don't appreciate this, that they are not signing on to it.

1570
01:14:15,360 --> 01:14:18,120
Speaker 2: But there's strains of it everywhere. Don't forget Tim Scott,

1571
01:14:18,200 --> 01:14:20,840
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley. These are all cut from the exact same cloth.

1572
01:14:20,880 --> 01:14:24,160
Speaker 2: They really believe in this anti populist sentiment. And look,

1573
01:14:24,479 --> 01:14:25,800
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, it's like where you

1574
01:14:25,840 --> 01:14:27,639
Speaker 2: fall on that question, to me is like the ultimate

1575
01:14:27,960 --> 01:14:31,120
Speaker 2: decider for it's like do I even marginally respect you

1576
01:14:31,200 --> 01:14:33,800
Speaker 2: as a politician or not, at least in rhetoric, because

1577
01:14:33,840 --> 01:14:36,000
Speaker 2: he is rejecting the frame at all. He's not even

1578
01:14:36,000 --> 01:14:38,280
Speaker 2: trying to co opt or to embrace it. He's like, no,

1579
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,840
Speaker 2: this is explicitly a bad thing and it is anti democratic.

1580
01:14:42,080 --> 01:14:45,280
Speaker 2: It is also you know, a shadow really of what

1581
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:48,000
Speaker 2: the party was, and I'm really glad to see that

1582
01:14:48,080 --> 01:14:50,200
Speaker 2: at at the very least, is not there anymore. So

1583
01:14:50,439 --> 01:14:52,400
Speaker 2: the thing is is that it has to be moved

1584
01:14:52,400 --> 01:14:54,000
Speaker 2: on from. And that's still why I think that the

1585
01:14:54,000 --> 01:14:55,840
Speaker 2: speech was so important. It was important for people to

1586
01:14:55,840 --> 01:14:59,559
Speaker 2: see that this is still a real force. It is believed,

1587
01:14:59,560 --> 01:15:01,640
Speaker 2: you know, huge For most people, what they do is

1588
01:15:01,640 --> 01:15:03,720
Speaker 2: they try and co opt it, to try and you know,

1589
01:15:03,920 --> 01:15:05,599
Speaker 2: push what Pence is selling.

1590
01:15:05,680 --> 01:15:08,479
Speaker 3: He's just the only one really outwardly being.

1591
01:15:08,320 --> 01:15:12,080
Speaker 2: Like, no, populism itself is bad and you know, accepting

1592
01:15:12,080 --> 01:15:14,599
Speaker 2: the quote unquote limited government framework, but don't you know,

1593
01:15:14,600 --> 01:15:16,760
Speaker 2: don't don't forget there. He's like, I'm limited government, except

1594
01:15:16,800 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 2: we need to pass up in a national abortion ban.

1595
01:15:18,640 --> 01:15:22,639
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, okay, yeah, it's so it doesn't quite

1596
01:15:22,640 --> 01:15:24,759
Speaker 2: square there exactly what you're saying.

1597
01:15:25,040 --> 01:15:25,559
Speaker 3: I guess.

1598
01:15:25,600 --> 01:15:28,639
Speaker 2: Just it was an important speech for everyone, even though

1599
01:15:28,800 --> 01:15:30,920
Speaker 2: it didn't receive as much media attention, I think as

1600
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:34,240
Speaker 2: it should, because it shows you, like what they really

1601
01:15:34,280 --> 01:15:37,120
Speaker 2: think of you, and regardless of whether you're Republican or not.

1602
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:39,759
Speaker 2: Like that, that was the most distane I've seen yet

1603
01:15:39,960 --> 01:15:42,680
Speaker 2: for real like voters and for Democrats. For democracy.

1604
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:47,519
Speaker 1: There's a huge gulf between what the Republican base actually thinks,

1605
01:15:47,640 --> 01:15:51,519
Speaker 1: especially on economics, It's huge, and what the entire even

1606
01:15:51,600 --> 01:15:56,400
Speaker 1: the supposed populist in Washington support here. And that's not

1607
01:15:56,439 --> 01:15:59,640
Speaker 1: an accident. I mean, that's still where the financial base is.

1608
01:16:00,000 --> 01:16:00,160
Speaker 3: You know.

1609
01:16:00,160 --> 01:16:03,240
Speaker 1: When we talked to Sora Amari about this, he pointed

1610
01:16:03,280 --> 01:16:06,400
Speaker 1: out that the not even the like big billionaire donors,

1611
01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:09,400
Speaker 1: although that's part of it, but that next level down,

1612
01:16:09,479 --> 01:16:15,360
Speaker 1: the car dealership owners, like the local you know, campaign

1613
01:16:15,560 --> 01:16:19,360
Speaker 1: donations and the people who in the individual congressional districts

1614
01:16:19,720 --> 01:16:23,120
Speaker 1: fund the party and are the biggest activists, really act

1615
01:16:23,160 --> 01:16:26,920
Speaker 1: as a check on any sort of more populous movement

1616
01:16:26,960 --> 01:16:29,920
Speaker 1: in terms of economics, and so it's not a surprise

1617
01:16:30,240 --> 01:16:33,640
Speaker 1: that you see candidates like Ronda Santis and Vivike Ramaswami

1618
01:16:33,800 --> 01:16:35,760
Speaker 1: who hold very you know. I mean, you can look

1619
01:16:35,760 --> 01:16:38,000
Speaker 1: at Ronda Santis record when he was like a Tea

1620
01:16:38,000 --> 01:16:41,320
Speaker 1: party limited government Mike Pencish kind of a guy when

1621
01:16:41,360 --> 01:16:44,519
Speaker 1: he was here in Washington, and Vivike Ramaswami who has

1622
01:16:44,560 --> 01:16:48,880
Speaker 1: these very like pretty radical libertarian beliefs and very you know,

1623
01:16:48,960 --> 01:16:53,600
Speaker 1: libertarian approach to limited government as well. They use the

1624
01:16:53,720 --> 01:16:57,400
Speaker 1: language of populism because they see that it sells, but

1625
01:16:57,479 --> 01:17:00,599
Speaker 1: they don't and but they don't actually follow it up

1626
01:17:00,760 --> 01:17:04,160
Speaker 1: with the policy that the Republican base would support more

1627
01:17:04,200 --> 01:17:06,559
Speaker 1: so than the elites here in Washington. So that's part

1628
01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:08,800
Speaker 1: of why I say I actually respect Mike Pence being like, no,

1629
01:17:08,960 --> 01:17:10,599
Speaker 1: I just say I don't like that. This is who

1630
01:17:10,640 --> 01:17:13,600
Speaker 1: I am, like at least that's honest versus trying to

1631
01:17:13,640 --> 01:17:16,280
Speaker 1: do this bait and switch thing. But I also think

1632
01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:23,320
Speaker 1: that the interest and somewhat success of DeSantis and Ramaswami

1633
01:17:23,479 --> 01:17:26,360
Speaker 1: shows how much of our politics really does just come

1634
01:17:26,400 --> 01:17:29,040
Speaker 1: down to like vibes and attitude and the way you

1635
01:17:29,040 --> 01:17:29,840
Speaker 1: feel about someone.

1636
01:17:29,880 --> 01:17:34,120
Speaker 3: Sure enough, Crystal, what are you taking a look at well.

1637
01:17:34,200 --> 01:17:36,439
Speaker 1: A new poll from the Wall Street Journal underscores how

1638
01:17:36,520 --> 01:17:39,320
Speaker 1: even the mainstream press can no longer deny that Biden's

1639
01:17:39,360 --> 01:17:42,840
Speaker 1: age is a significant and legitimate issue for voters. Three

1640
01:17:42,920 --> 01:17:45,320
Speaker 1: quarters of American voters believe he is too old, and

1641
01:17:45,360 --> 01:17:48,200
Speaker 1: that includes a large majority of Democrats. And as we

1642
01:17:48,240 --> 01:17:51,280
Speaker 1: discussed on Tuesday, according to life expectancy charts for white men,

1643
01:17:51,400 --> 01:17:54,080
Speaker 1: there is quite a significant chance that he could actually

1644
01:17:54,160 --> 01:17:57,479
Speaker 1: die in office. As I said, that's worth considering. But

1645
01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:01,120
Speaker 1: the truth is, Biden's age isn't act actually his biggest

1646
01:18:01,160 --> 01:18:04,920
Speaker 1: liability now, as always, it's the economy stupid. It's the

1647
01:18:04,920 --> 01:18:08,839
Speaker 1: future promise of Bidenomics versus a current reality of struggle,

1648
01:18:09,240 --> 01:18:11,160
Speaker 1: and if he loses to Trump, it will have more

1649
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:13,960
Speaker 1: to do with the proverbial kitchen table than with the

1650
01:18:14,000 --> 01:18:17,960
Speaker 1: actuarial tables. So let's dig into the actual Biden economic record,

1651
01:18:18,080 --> 01:18:21,240
Speaker 1: the failures, the wins, and why Americans are not feeling

1652
01:18:21,360 --> 01:18:25,320
Speaker 1: the Bidenomics love the TLDR. Is this the economic story

1653
01:18:25,320 --> 01:18:28,439
Speaker 1: of the Biden administration is experienced by regular people, has

1654
01:18:28,479 --> 01:18:31,760
Speaker 1: been price bikes coupled with a stripping away of all

1655
01:18:31,840 --> 01:18:35,000
Speaker 1: the pandemic programs. Which actually did help them survive. This

1656
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:37,639
Speaker 1: chart here from the Lever shows all of the pandemic

1657
01:18:37,800 --> 01:18:40,519
Speaker 1: social safety net and how peace by piece it was

1658
01:18:40,600 --> 01:18:44,840
Speaker 1: allowed to expire, massively shrinking the social safety net for

1659
01:18:45,120 --> 01:18:48,519
Speaker 1: ordinary Americans. Now, for many people, these programs instituted by

1660
01:18:48,520 --> 01:18:51,959
Speaker 1: both Trump and Biden actually really improve their financial situation.

1661
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:54,639
Speaker 1: During the COVID crisis, take a look at this chart

1662
01:18:54,680 --> 01:18:57,799
Speaker 1: of credit card debt. Pandemic programs led to a historic

1663
01:18:58,000 --> 01:19:02,080
Speaker 1: reduction in personal debt during twenty twenty and twenty twenty one.

1664
01:19:02,439 --> 01:19:05,160
Speaker 1: But as those programs have been stripped away and inflation

1665
01:19:05,240 --> 01:19:08,160
Speaker 1: started to bite and the Fed hyped interest rates, Americans

1666
01:19:08,160 --> 01:19:11,799
Speaker 1: were quickly forced to rack back up new record levels

1667
01:19:11,840 --> 01:19:16,240
Speaker 1: of credit card debt, which has now surpassed pre pandemic levels. Now,

1668
01:19:16,240 --> 01:19:19,480
Speaker 1: the original idea of the Biden administration was to permanently

1669
01:19:19,520 --> 01:19:21,599
Speaker 1: expand the social safety net to bring it more in

1670
01:19:21,640 --> 01:19:24,160
Speaker 1: line with its other developed world peers. That was the

1671
01:19:24,200 --> 01:19:27,599
Speaker 1: basic concept of build back. Better to couple long term

1672
01:19:27,600 --> 01:19:31,760
Speaker 1: investments in a green transition industrial policy with tangible immediate

1673
01:19:31,800 --> 01:19:35,479
Speaker 1: benefits for Americans, things like affordable childcare, permanent child tax credit,

1674
01:19:35,720 --> 01:19:39,480
Speaker 1: huge investments in affordable housing, and a large expansion of healthcare,

1675
01:19:39,800 --> 01:19:43,000
Speaker 1: but this effort collapsed as Washington bought wholesale into what

1676
01:19:43,040 --> 01:19:45,760
Speaker 1: we now know was an incorrect analysis by permanently wrong

1677
01:19:45,800 --> 01:19:48,920
Speaker 1: economists of the causes of inflation in the face of

1678
01:19:49,040 --> 01:19:51,280
Speaker 1: massive supply chain disruptions and what is by now a

1679
01:19:51,320 --> 01:19:55,320
Speaker 1: widely accepted phenomenon of corporate price gouging. These economists pointed

1680
01:19:55,360 --> 01:19:57,360
Speaker 1: to the little bit of money in regular Americans bank

1681
01:19:57,360 --> 01:20:01,519
Speaker 1: accounts as the sole driver of inflation, and basically Biden

1682
01:20:01,560 --> 01:20:04,360
Speaker 1: the Democrats bought it, running like scared children away from

1683
01:20:04,360 --> 01:20:06,559
Speaker 1: the part of their agenda that actually would have helped

1684
01:20:06,760 --> 01:20:10,679
Speaker 1: ordinary people in immediate, tangible ways. The collapse of Build

1685
01:20:10,680 --> 01:20:13,759
Speaker 1: back beat Are roughly coincided with a messy Afghan withdrawal,

1686
01:20:13,800 --> 01:20:15,720
Speaker 1: which was one hundred percent the right thing to do,

1687
01:20:16,000 --> 01:20:19,799
Speaker 1: but led to uniform condemnation of the Biden administration across

1688
01:20:19,840 --> 01:20:23,200
Speaker 1: media outlets. With this one to two punch, Biden's once

1689
01:20:23,240 --> 01:20:26,599
Speaker 1: impressive approval ratings collapsed and never recovered, as you can

1690
01:20:26,600 --> 01:20:29,320
Speaker 1: see on that chart. So that's the short term economic

1691
01:20:29,360 --> 01:20:32,200
Speaker 1: reality which has led Biden to be rated so poorly overall,

1692
01:20:32,240 --> 01:20:36,160
Speaker 1: and specifically poorly on his stewardship of the economy, and

1693
01:20:36,200 --> 01:20:38,559
Speaker 1: it stands in start contrast to a medium to long

1694
01:20:38,640 --> 01:20:41,519
Speaker 1: term economic vision, which I have to say is actually

1695
01:20:41,640 --> 01:20:44,200
Speaker 1: the best of any president of my lifetime. Now, you

1696
01:20:44,280 --> 01:20:45,400
Speaker 1: might say that's a low bar.

1697
01:20:45,840 --> 01:20:46,120
Speaker 3: True.

1698
01:20:46,400 --> 01:20:48,200
Speaker 1: You might say there is way more than needs to

1699
01:20:48,240 --> 01:20:51,960
Speaker 1: be done. Also true, But the long term Bidenomics vision

1700
01:20:52,040 --> 01:20:55,439
Speaker 1: represents an important and notable shift away from the market

1701
01:20:55,479 --> 01:20:58,680
Speaker 1: obsessed tenants of forty years of neoliberalism, which have decimated

1702
01:20:58,680 --> 01:21:01,759
Speaker 1: our industrial capacity along with our once storied middle class.

1703
01:21:01,960 --> 01:21:04,960
Speaker 1: To put it simply, Biden and his team have rejected

1704
01:21:05,120 --> 01:21:08,800
Speaker 1: the Reagan, Clinton, Bush Obama consensus on free trade and

1705
01:21:08,840 --> 01:21:11,920
Speaker 1: have returned to a direct industrial policy that harkens back

1706
01:21:11,920 --> 01:21:14,120
Speaker 1: to the New Deal era or even to the Hamiltonian

1707
01:21:14,160 --> 01:21:16,400
Speaker 1: system which helped to build our nation in the first place.

1708
01:21:16,720 --> 01:21:19,960
Speaker 1: The Infrastructure Act is helping to build critical infrastructure which

1709
01:21:20,000 --> 01:21:24,440
Speaker 1: was desperately needed long neglected. That Chips Act prioritizes domestic

1710
01:21:24,439 --> 01:21:28,880
Speaker 1: industrial development of semiconductor's absolutely essential industry. The very poorly

1711
01:21:28,960 --> 01:21:31,760
Speaker 1: named Inflation Reduction Act is the most ambitious piece of

1712
01:21:31,800 --> 01:21:35,120
Speaker 1: Biden industrial policy, which seeks to get America wholeheartedly into

1713
01:21:35,160 --> 01:21:38,320
Speaker 1: the game of green tech investment, an industry which will

1714
01:21:38,360 --> 01:21:40,759
Speaker 1: define the future in an area where China has long

1715
01:21:40,800 --> 01:21:44,879
Speaker 1: been destroying us through their own large investments and industrial policy.

1716
01:21:45,280 --> 01:21:48,080
Speaker 1: At the same time, the Biden administration has also broken

1717
01:21:48,240 --> 01:21:51,320
Speaker 1: with forty years of consensus on corporate power and monopolies,

1718
01:21:51,520 --> 01:21:54,080
Speaker 1: bringing in a group of true renegades to restore trust

1719
01:21:54,120 --> 01:21:56,519
Speaker 1: busting and make it relevant again. In the modern era.

1720
01:21:56,880 --> 01:21:59,200
Speaker 1: There is hardly an industry where a small group of

1721
01:21:59,240 --> 01:22:04,559
Speaker 1: giant corporations haven't taken over with devastating consequences for small businesses, workers, farmers,

1722
01:22:04,560 --> 01:22:07,000
Speaker 1: and consumers, to name a few groups. So this work

1723
01:22:07,080 --> 01:22:10,240
Speaker 1: is really essential. And while of course I want them

1724
01:22:10,280 --> 01:22:13,360
Speaker 1: to go further and vehemently oppose the Biden endmen's intervention

1725
01:22:13,479 --> 01:22:16,400
Speaker 1: in the rail workers potential strike, this is the first

1726
01:22:16,400 --> 01:22:20,080
Speaker 1: administration in my life that has taken significant steps to

1727
01:22:20,120 --> 01:22:24,040
Speaker 1: strengthen union power. The Biden National Labor Relationsport has been

1728
01:22:24,080 --> 01:22:26,839
Speaker 1: a game changer for workers trying to organize, from decisions

1729
01:22:26,840 --> 01:22:29,400
Speaker 1: in favor of Starbucks workers to the recent earthquake ruling

1730
01:22:29,400 --> 01:22:32,519
Speaker 1: that will force union busters to immediately recognize embargain with

1731
01:22:32,560 --> 01:22:36,080
Speaker 1: workers real estate. Steps have been taken that could lead

1732
01:22:36,120 --> 01:22:38,439
Speaker 1: to a resurgence of labor, which to me is the

1733
01:22:38,479 --> 01:22:40,560
Speaker 1: single most important thing you could do to improve the

1734
01:22:40,600 --> 01:22:44,200
Speaker 1: lot of American workers. To underscale score just how important

1735
01:22:44,280 --> 01:22:46,240
Speaker 1: this really is. Just take a look at this chart.

1736
01:22:46,720 --> 01:22:50,880
Speaker 1: Killing unions killed the middle class. It is really that simple. Now.

1737
01:22:50,880 --> 01:22:53,840
Speaker 1: As I've said before, the Biden NLRB alone is reason

1738
01:22:53,880 --> 01:22:56,080
Speaker 1: to choose Biden over Trump if your priority is the

1739
01:22:56,080 --> 01:22:59,120
Speaker 1: fate of the American working class. But none of that

1740
01:22:59,200 --> 01:23:04,439
Speaker 1: positive possible future for Bidenomics is helping people today right now,

1741
01:23:04,800 --> 01:23:06,920
Speaker 1: nor will it be helping them when they go to

1742
01:23:07,000 --> 01:23:09,400
Speaker 1: cast their ballots a year from now. The Biden team

1743
01:23:09,479 --> 01:23:13,160
Speaker 1: screwed themselves by abandoning an immediate agenda of material progress

1744
01:23:13,160 --> 01:23:16,360
Speaker 1: for debt laden Americans. That's the real problem for him,

1745
01:23:16,560 --> 01:23:19,040
Speaker 1: after all. Biden's been old this whole time. He was

1746
01:23:19,080 --> 01:23:21,080
Speaker 1: old when he won the Democratic primary, he was old

1747
01:23:21,120 --> 01:23:22,920
Speaker 1: when he beat Trump. He was old at the beginning

1748
01:23:22,920 --> 01:23:24,640
Speaker 1: of his term when his approval rating was soaring, and

1749
01:23:24,680 --> 01:23:26,599
Speaker 1: he's still faring better in the polls than his much

1750
01:23:26,640 --> 01:23:30,240
Speaker 1: younger Vice president Gamala Harris. What has changed isn't Biden

1751
01:23:30,280 --> 01:23:34,080
Speaker 1: being old. It's the credit card balances, the dwindling bank accounts,

1752
01:23:34,120 --> 01:23:37,719
Speaker 1: an increasingly hopeless housing situation that has turned what should

1753
01:23:37,800 --> 01:23:41,960
Speaker 1: be a gimme reelect into grave, peril and saber. That's

1754
01:23:41,960 --> 01:23:43,639
Speaker 1: sort of my overall view of Biden.

1755
01:23:43,920 --> 01:23:46,639
Speaker 2: And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

1756
01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:52,360
Speaker 2: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com.

1757
01:23:52,400 --> 01:23:53,519
Speaker 1: All right, sorry, we looking at it.

1758
01:23:53,520 --> 01:23:53,760
Speaker 6: Well.

1759
01:23:53,840 --> 01:23:55,720
Speaker 2: Something I've been thinking about a lot lately is the

1760
01:23:55,760 --> 01:23:58,120
Speaker 2: trade off that we have made with technology and privacy.

1761
01:23:58,200 --> 01:24:00,120
Speaker 2: And I was especially struck by this A few weeks ago.

1762
01:24:00,200 --> 01:24:01,599
Speaker 2: I was on a trip with some friends of mine.

1763
01:24:01,640 --> 01:24:03,759
Speaker 2: We were at an airbnb. This friend at a semi

1764
01:24:03,760 --> 01:24:05,760
Speaker 2: sensitive job, and they were sitting on the porch. They

1765
01:24:05,760 --> 01:24:07,680
Speaker 2: were talking about something from work, and I stopped him

1766
01:24:07,720 --> 01:24:10,360
Speaker 2: and I said, hey, don't forget most airbnbs they have

1767
01:24:10,439 --> 01:24:12,799
Speaker 2: ring cameras. You never know if the owner is watching.

1768
01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:15,280
Speaker 2: Sure enough, we looked around and in the corner there

1769
01:24:15,360 --> 01:24:17,720
Speaker 2: was a ring camera. Now would the owner care enough

1770
01:24:17,720 --> 01:24:20,599
Speaker 2: to really look an even eavesdrop? Who knows. But it's

1771
01:24:20,600 --> 01:24:23,439
Speaker 2: a reminder of something that just seems omnipresent these days.

1772
01:24:23,640 --> 01:24:26,439
Speaker 2: Anything with a battery or an Internet connection is dual use.

1773
01:24:26,520 --> 01:24:28,639
Speaker 2: It can make your life more convenient. It has plenty

1774
01:24:28,640 --> 01:24:31,000
Speaker 2: of legitimate use cases It's also an entry point for

1775
01:24:31,080 --> 01:24:33,920
Speaker 2: higher authorities to abuse if they want to. I kept

1776
01:24:33,920 --> 01:24:35,759
Speaker 2: thinking about this in the light of a new story

1777
01:24:35,760 --> 01:24:38,799
Speaker 2: that is rocking the gun world right now. Liberty Safe,

1778
01:24:38,840 --> 01:24:41,120
Speaker 2: long known as one of the gold standards of firearm

1779
01:24:41,200 --> 01:24:45,400
Speaker 2: safs safes has priced accordingly, has been caught in a

1780
01:24:45,439 --> 01:24:48,400
Speaker 2: tremendous scandal that seems to fly in the face of

1781
01:24:48,520 --> 01:24:51,519
Speaker 2: everything that they supposedly stand for. Started a few days

1782
01:24:51,560 --> 01:24:53,880
Speaker 2: ago when the news broke that the FBI arrested an

1783
01:24:53,880 --> 01:24:57,400
Speaker 2: individual named Nathan Hughes for crimes related to January sixth.

1784
01:24:57,479 --> 01:25:00,160
Speaker 2: Hughes was arrested while out at a shopping center, which

1785
01:25:00,160 --> 01:25:02,919
Speaker 2: coincided in the search warrant raid on his home, including

1786
01:25:03,160 --> 01:25:06,639
Speaker 2: for the gun safe. Now in the Hodge Twins telling quote,

1787
01:25:06,680 --> 01:25:09,679
Speaker 2: the FEDS called the manufacturer of his Liberty gun safe

1788
01:25:09,720 --> 01:25:11,479
Speaker 2: and got the passcode to get into it.

1789
01:25:11,680 --> 01:25:11,840
Speaker 3: Now.

1790
01:25:11,880 --> 01:25:14,599
Speaker 2: Immediately, flags went up all over the gun world. Hold

1791
01:25:14,680 --> 01:25:16,760
Speaker 2: on a second, what are you talking about? Is that

1792
01:25:16,840 --> 01:25:20,360
Speaker 2: even possible? Not only is it possible, it's true. Liberty

1793
01:25:20,439 --> 01:25:23,479
Speaker 2: confirmed the news in a statement yesterday, saying, quote, on

1794
01:25:23,560 --> 01:25:26,840
Speaker 2: August thirtieth, twenty twenty three, Liberty Safe was contacted by

1795
01:25:26,840 --> 01:25:29,120
Speaker 2: the FBI requesting the access code to a safe of

1796
01:25:29,160 --> 01:25:31,639
Speaker 2: an individual for whom they had a warrant to search

1797
01:25:31,720 --> 01:25:35,040
Speaker 2: their property. They continue, quote, our company protocol is to

1798
01:25:35,080 --> 01:25:38,000
Speaker 2: provide access codes to law enforcement if it warn't grants

1799
01:25:38,000 --> 01:25:40,160
Speaker 2: some access to a property.

1800
01:25:40,680 --> 01:25:43,360
Speaker 3: Parse that again, if the FEDS have a search.

1801
01:25:43,120 --> 01:25:45,960
Speaker 2: Warrant just for your property and there happens to be

1802
01:25:46,000 --> 01:25:48,479
Speaker 2: a gun safe on said property, the company is not

1803
01:25:48,560 --> 01:25:50,960
Speaker 2: required by law at all to turn that code over.

1804
01:25:51,360 --> 01:25:54,280
Speaker 2: Yet they hand over the key to the freaking safe.

1805
01:25:54,360 --> 01:25:57,759
Speaker 2: The safe again is sold as impenetrable, meant to hold

1806
01:25:57,800 --> 01:26:01,920
Speaker 2: constitutionally protected guns. What's especially galling though about liberty decision

1807
01:26:02,160 --> 01:26:04,559
Speaker 2: is they did not even fight this request, and who

1808
01:26:04,600 --> 01:26:07,680
Speaker 2: knows how many others in the past. Apple famously in

1809
01:26:07,720 --> 01:26:10,960
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen told the FBI kick rocks when they were

1810
01:26:11,000 --> 01:26:14,080
Speaker 2: asked to unlock the San Bernardino's terrorist iPhone. Their correct

1811
01:26:14,200 --> 01:26:16,519
Speaker 2: rationale was, well, if we do it, or we show

1812
01:26:16,560 --> 01:26:18,360
Speaker 2: the FBI how to do it, they could do it

1813
01:26:18,360 --> 01:26:20,559
Speaker 2: for all their products, and thus it was vital to

1814
01:26:20,560 --> 01:26:24,080
Speaker 2: preserve customer privacy not provide the government a backdoor to

1815
01:26:24,120 --> 01:26:26,320
Speaker 2: any of their devices. And that's Apple, one of the

1816
01:26:26,360 --> 01:26:29,080
Speaker 2: most liberal companies in the United States. Here you've got

1817
01:26:29,080 --> 01:26:31,960
Speaker 2: a freaking gun safe company who is constantly posting about

1818
01:26:31,960 --> 01:26:36,400
Speaker 2: well regulated militias and everyday carries that apparently does whatever

1819
01:26:36,479 --> 01:26:38,320
Speaker 2: the FBI just asked them to do.

1820
01:26:38,520 --> 01:26:41,160
Speaker 3: Even though they absolutely.

1821
01:26:40,280 --> 01:26:43,120
Speaker 2: Could have fought any such requests and one in court

1822
01:26:43,400 --> 01:26:46,280
Speaker 2: as Apple did against the FBI. The reason I am

1823
01:26:46,320 --> 01:26:48,519
Speaker 2: doing this is not just talking about liberty guns or

1824
01:26:48,560 --> 01:26:50,400
Speaker 2: that situation, is because it connects back to what I

1825
01:26:50,439 --> 01:26:53,880
Speaker 2: started with. Electronic locks are convenient, and that's why people

1826
01:26:53,960 --> 01:26:56,000
Speaker 2: use them or buy them. It's all fun and games

1827
01:26:56,080 --> 01:26:58,240
Speaker 2: until the company can just give the FEDS a backdoor

1828
01:26:58,400 --> 01:27:00,840
Speaker 2: into your nearly ten thousand dollars GUS safe that you

1829
01:27:00,920 --> 01:27:04,240
Speaker 2: bought with a full expectation that only the owner can access.

1830
01:27:04,400 --> 01:27:06,920
Speaker 2: And to circle back to the beginning, Ring cameras are

1831
01:27:06,960 --> 01:27:08,840
Speaker 2: really easy to use and set up too. And there's

1832
01:27:08,840 --> 01:27:10,559
Speaker 2: a bit of a catch though that the people over

1833
01:27:10,760 --> 01:27:12,599
Speaker 2: wired a flag that I've been dying to talk about

1834
01:27:12,600 --> 01:27:15,360
Speaker 2: over here for a while. Since twenty twenty one, Amazon

1835
01:27:15,400 --> 01:27:17,599
Speaker 2: has signed a partnership with more than two thousand police

1836
01:27:17,600 --> 01:27:20,520
Speaker 2: and fire departments across the US, as well as broad.

1837
01:27:20,320 --> 01:27:23,880
Speaker 3: With the UK. It has now been revealed that Ring owners.

1838
01:27:23,960 --> 01:27:27,840
Speaker 2: Footage has on multiple occasions been turned over to law

1839
01:27:27,880 --> 01:27:32,120
Speaker 2: enforcement authorities without the explicit consent of the owner of

1840
01:27:32,160 --> 01:27:35,559
Speaker 2: the footage or of the camera. Furthermore, the owners of

1841
01:27:35,640 --> 01:27:38,760
Speaker 2: said cameras and footage did not even know that that

1842
01:27:38,840 --> 01:27:41,920
Speaker 2: data was turned over. Flipping on the head the idea

1843
01:27:42,240 --> 01:27:45,439
Speaker 2: of who owns these things in the first place. Ring

1844
01:27:45,479 --> 01:27:48,360
Speaker 2: at that time said quote it may hand over data

1845
01:27:48,439 --> 01:27:52,479
Speaker 2: without permission in emergency situations where there is imminent danger

1846
01:27:52,520 --> 01:27:54,800
Speaker 2: of death or serious harm to a person. If you're

1847
01:27:54,800 --> 01:27:57,360
Speaker 2: a cop, obviously, what do you say whenever you want

1848
01:27:57,360 --> 01:28:00,400
Speaker 2: some data. It's imminent, it's an emergent situation. The guys

1849
01:28:00,400 --> 01:28:02,720
Speaker 2: onna lose boom. You don't even need a warrant and

1850
01:28:02,800 --> 01:28:04,840
Speaker 2: camera footage is on its way. And look, in some

1851
01:28:04,880 --> 01:28:08,280
Speaker 2: cases it is volunteering. If officers want footage of Ring cameras,

1852
01:28:08,360 --> 01:28:10,200
Speaker 2: then in some cases Ring will ask you if you

1853
01:28:10,240 --> 01:28:11,719
Speaker 2: want to share it, and if you do.

1854
01:28:11,960 --> 01:28:13,799
Speaker 3: Go for it. That's your choice as a citizen.

1855
01:28:14,000 --> 01:28:16,880
Speaker 2: But involuntary is where I draw the line from dash

1856
01:28:16,920 --> 01:28:19,680
Speaker 2: cams to door cams, to gun safes to smart homelocks.

1857
01:28:19,800 --> 01:28:22,559
Speaker 2: We are creating society where it is easier than ever

1858
01:28:22,720 --> 01:28:25,160
Speaker 2: for the police and law enforcement to get access to

1859
01:28:25,280 --> 01:28:28,360
Speaker 2: the most private areas of your life without a warrant

1860
01:28:28,560 --> 01:28:31,519
Speaker 2: and only having to call up the company to get access.

1861
01:28:31,760 --> 01:28:33,880
Speaker 2: And the worst part, as I said, there's really only

1862
01:28:33,920 --> 01:28:35,439
Speaker 2: so much you can do about it. You can have

1863
01:28:35,479 --> 01:28:37,120
Speaker 2: a dumb home, sure, but you still have to go

1864
01:28:37,160 --> 01:28:39,000
Speaker 2: out in public. Every time you walk your dog, you're

1865
01:28:39,000 --> 01:28:41,320
Speaker 2: probably captured by more than a dozen doorbell cameras.

1866
01:28:41,439 --> 01:28:44,120
Speaker 3: If you live in a semi urban environment like I do, or.

1867
01:28:44,240 --> 01:28:46,679
Speaker 2: Visit an airbnb or drive is it captured on someone

1868
01:28:46,680 --> 01:28:49,639
Speaker 2: else's dash camp. Perhaps we don't have a legal expectation

1869
01:28:49,680 --> 01:28:52,360
Speaker 2: of privacy in each one of those situations, but we

1870
01:28:52,360 --> 01:28:55,040
Speaker 2: should have some moral one as a society, and we

1871
01:28:55,080 --> 01:28:58,080
Speaker 2: can push our lawmakers to actually do something about this. Otherwise,

1872
01:28:58,280 --> 01:29:00,880
Speaker 2: the pace of technology and government and try is only

1873
01:29:00,920 --> 01:29:03,720
Speaker 2: going to increase, and the main victims will be us

1874
01:29:03,840 --> 01:29:07,000
Speaker 2: who have to choose between convenient convenience and surveillance.

1875
01:29:07,200 --> 01:29:09,519
Speaker 3: I mean, the gun safe thing is actually nuts.

1876
01:29:09,600 --> 01:29:10,960
Speaker 1: And by the way, and if you want to hear

1877
01:29:11,200 --> 01:29:14,759
Speaker 1: my reaction to Sagres's monologue, become a premium subscriber today

1878
01:29:14,800 --> 01:29:18,880
Speaker 1: at Breakingpoints dot com.

1879
01:29:19,000 --> 01:29:22,599
Speaker 2: Hey everyone, apologies, we had a scheduling conflict with Anthony Fantana,

1880
01:29:22,600 --> 01:29:23,880
Speaker 2: but we're going to set it up well. We'll get

1881
01:29:23,880 --> 01:29:26,679
Speaker 2: the segment done as soon as he's available. We appreciate

1882
01:29:26,720 --> 01:29:28,679
Speaker 2: everybody for watching. As we said, we've got the focus

1883
01:29:28,680 --> 01:29:30,880
Speaker 2: group coming over the weekend, lots of travel.

1884
01:29:30,880 --> 01:29:32,519
Speaker 3: It's going to be a new Hampshire. We're really excited

1885
01:29:32,520 --> 01:29:32,760
Speaker 3: about it.

1886
01:29:32,840 --> 01:29:35,360
Speaker 2: If you can support us breakingpoints dot com, it really

1887
01:29:35,360 --> 01:29:36,040
Speaker 2: does help us out.

1888
01:29:36,080 --> 01:29:37,679
Speaker 3: Otherwise, we're going to see you all next week.