1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, d C. 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: Where I have to say traffic was pretty abysmal this morning, 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: in large part thanks to the gathering that was taking 9 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 2: place at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace. Whether 10 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: or not it's going to remain named that probably is 11 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 2: going to depend on the outcome of what's happening in 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 2: courts of law after he effectively seized it last year. 13 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 2: The question, of course, though, that was being visited beyond 14 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 2: the name of the building. Inside the building was the 15 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: rebuilding of Gaza. In the role of various members and 16 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 2: signatories to the Board of Peace, we'll play in that. 17 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 2: President Trump announcing today that the United States will be 18 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 2: providing ten billion dollars in the eighth rebuilding Gaza. Other 19 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 2: nations on the Board of Peace will be providing seven 20 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 2: billion dollars, and he described the mission as an incredibly 21 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 2: important global one that could extend well beyond Gaza. Here's 22 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 2: a taste of what President Trump said this morning. 23 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 3: I believe it's the most consequential boards, certainly in terms 24 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 3: of power and in terms of prestige. There's never been 25 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:25,119 Speaker 3: anything close. Because these are the greatest world leaders. Almost 26 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 3: everybody's accepted and the ones that haven't will be. 27 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 4: Some are playing a little cute. 28 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 3: It doesn't work. 29 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 5: You can't play cute with me. 30 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 6: The Institute of Peace on the West side of DC, 31 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 6: a very short walk from the Potomac River, which at 32 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 6: the moment apparently smells like sewage. So that was the 33 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 6: atmosphere for these world leaders. And we want to start 34 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 6: ahead of our conversation with Megan O'Sullivan with an update 35 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 6: from the White House. Bloomberg White House correspondent Skyler Woodhouse joins. 36 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 4: Us right now from the North Lawn. 37 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 6: This is interesting, Skyler, about sixty invitation sent to heads 38 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 6: of state around the world. Only about two dozen countries 39 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 6: have agreed to join, and they are not the countries 40 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 6: that you might expect. 41 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 4: Who sits on this board. 42 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean what we're seeing with this board, it's 43 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 7: pretty in line with President Trump as a person, he's 44 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 7: going the non traditional route as he tries to establish 45 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 7: this board of peace. Today, we had the president of Argentina. 46 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 7: You had representatives from Morocco, Czech Republic, Israel, Azerbaijan, so 47 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,399 Speaker 7: you had Armenia, you had representatives from you know, countries 48 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 7: that don't traditionally are at the forefront of peace conversations 49 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 7: as the President tries to make this sort of a 50 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 7: dupe of the United Nations. And one thing that we 51 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 7: are watching today, as the President has hinted at a 52 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 7: potential attack to Iran, was was this going to come 53 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 7: up in conversation today? The President didn't offer any new 54 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 7: details on what he plans to do, but it was 55 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 7: definitely definitely something that folks are watching as he really 56 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 7: tries to lean into peace in the Middle East. 57 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, peace or perhaps lack thereof, depending on what happens 58 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 2: ten days from now, I guess Skylers he said, that's 59 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 2: when we'll find out whether or not diplomacy can win 60 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 2: out in Iran. As we think though about the geopolitical 61 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 2: elements of which President Trump has been largely focused as 62 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 2: of late, Obviously, there are forces within the White House, 63 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 2: including the Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who are hoping 64 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 2: to narrow the focus back on domestic issues ahead of 65 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 2: the midterms. Hence the trip to Georgia today that the 66 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,839 Speaker 2: President is literally on board the plane about to take 67 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 2: off for Rome, Georgia, to talk about affordability. To what extent, 68 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 2: is this just a preview, Skyler of what he's going 69 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 2: to say at the State of the Union on Tuesday. 70 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, well, Chief of Staff Susie will I mean, she 71 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 7: has really aids around the White House, not just herself, 72 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 7: but they have really been trying to push the President 73 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 7: to talk about affordability. As the November midterms are just 74 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 7: around the corner. I know it might seem like it's 75 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 7: a couple months or just months away, it's going to 76 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 7: come very quickly, and Republicans are trying to crack down 77 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 7: on their affordability message. Obviously with the President's with the 78 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 7: President's tariffs, higher costs, they're trying to figure out how 79 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 7: they can best get their message to voters. And like 80 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 7: you mentioned, Kaylee at the top of the show, this 81 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 7: is former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green's district. So this will 82 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 7: be an interesting speech for President Trump. It'll be interesting 83 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 7: to see does he just sling shot after shot on 84 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 7: the former congresswoman, or does he stick to the script 85 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 7: and really lean into affordability as he talks about housing. 86 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 7: He's also expected to visit a local business and he's 87 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 7: going to tour a steel factory, you know, so he's 88 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 7: trying to get out there and essentially talk to the people. 89 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 7: But I meet a President Trump, you never know which 90 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 7: way the script might go. He could lean into affordability 91 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 7: or take it a total different direction. 92 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 5: Well, that is very true. 93 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 2: Indeed, Skyler Woodhouse reporting for US Live from the White House, 94 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Meantime, President Trump did speak with 95 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: reporters on the tarmac before boarding Air Force one en 96 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,559 Speaker 2: route to Georgia, once again saying that quote, really bad 97 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 2: things will happen if there's no Iran deal. It echoes 98 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 2: what we heard from him earlier today speaking at the 99 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 2: Institute of Peace. 100 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:11,559 Speaker 3: Well, Iran is a hotspot right now in the meeting, 101 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 3: and they have a good relationship with the representatives Iran, 102 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 3: and you know, good talks of being had. It's proven 103 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 3: to be over the years not easy to make a 104 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 3: meaningful deal with her. And we have to make a 105 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 3: meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen, but we have to 106 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 3: make a meaningful deal. 107 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 8: Now. 108 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 3: We may have to take it a step further, or 109 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 3: we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. 110 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 3: You're going to be finding out over the next probably 111 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 3: ten days. 112 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,799 Speaker 2: So for more, we turned to Megan O'Sullivan, former Deputy 113 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 2: National Security Advisor during the George W. Bush administration, now 114 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 2: director of the Harvard Belfer Center. Here with us on 115 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Megan, thank you so much for 116 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 2: being here. I guess I have a few questions based 117 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 2: strictly off what President Trump said. First, to have a 118 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 2: meaningful deal is ten days enough time? 119 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 9: Well, I think it depends on how you define meaningful. 120 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 9: If you look at the deal that the Trump administration 121 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 9: fashioned around Gaza, that was a meaningful deal, but it 122 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 9: was short on details, and so that could be what 123 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 9: President Trump has in mind if he's thinking of a 124 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 9: meaningful deal like the deal that the Obama administration, the 125 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 9: JCPOA did with r On many years ago. That was 126 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 9: a document over a thousand pages long, many many months 127 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 9: years in the making. That kind of thing is not 128 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 9: obviously possible. The Iranians are used to negotiating, haggling over 129 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 9: very every detail and the pace and the pressure with 130 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 9: which the Trump administration, the president in particular, want to 131 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 9: see actions and deals made, these two things are very 132 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 9: much at odds with one another, and certainly a ten 133 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 9: day timeframe could allow for a deal in principle, but 134 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 9: certainly won't allow for a detailed scope. 135 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 6: Megan, it's good to see you and you're back with 136 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 6: us on this day of days. I'm seeing two thousand 137 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 6: and three mentioned in stories all over the terminal and 138 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 6: all over the internet today, the biggest military build up 139 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 6: since the invasion that you helped to prepare, the invasion 140 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 6: of Iraq in two thousand and three. Have we ever 141 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 6: seen this much hardware assembled in one place without it 142 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 6: being used? 143 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 9: Sure, and I should say that I was there. I 144 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 9: went to Kuwait before the invasion of Kuwait, but at 145 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 9: the time I was reasonably junior, But certainly I was 146 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 9: there for it and part of it. This, as you 147 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 9: pointed out, this is the largest military build up of 148 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 9: American force and firepower that the world has seen since 149 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 9: two thousand and three. And I think it really raises 150 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 9: questions about what kind of action could the Trump administration 151 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 9: be preparing. Certainly this wouldn't be the first time that 152 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 9: the Trump administration or President Trump, i should say, would 153 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,119 Speaker 9: be using for Cineran. But the nature of this build 154 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 9: up and the lack of clarity around exactly what the 155 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 9: objective would be in this particular use of force, I 156 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 9: think is adding to some of the insecurity around the moment, 157 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 9: is adding to the global jitters. Also the questions around 158 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 9: Iran's retaliation. I think in the past, what we've seen, 159 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 9: whether it was the assassination of Kasum Sulaimani in the 160 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 9: first Trump administration or the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities 161 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 9: last summer, those were very specific and targeted military actions, 162 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 9: and Iranian response was quite contained. I think the possibility 163 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 9: is real that we'd be looking at something that was larger, 164 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 9: more uncertain, and less contained. Of course, as President Trump 165 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,959 Speaker 9: made clear today, there's still the possibility of a deal 166 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 9: on the table, and it could continue to be the 167 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 9: case that this show of military force is to increase 168 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 9: the pressure on the Iranians, because no doubt there's still 169 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 9: a large gap between the US and Iran on what 170 00:08:58,000 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 9: each side would like to see in a deal. 171 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 2: Well, and so certainly there is some flexing happening Megan 172 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 2: of America's military might. But to your point on potential 173 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 2: retaliation from Iran, what military might does Iran have right now? 174 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 2: Knowing that we did do damage back in June on 175 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,079 Speaker 2: with the first strike, what is their capability to respond? 176 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 2: Where do you think Iran could target? 177 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 9: Sure, Kayleie, thanks for that question. First of all, your 178 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 9: viewers should have no doubt that the US is militarily 179 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 9: superior in every dimension. That is meaningful in a long 180 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 9: term sense. Here where Iran still does have capabilities. It 181 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 9: still has missile capabilities, and that is one of the 182 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 9: issues that the Trump administration would like to see and 183 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 9: the Israelis and others would like to see be part 184 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 9: of a deal, which hasn't been the case in the 185 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 9: past deal that has been solely related to nuclear issues. 186 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 9: So it still has some missile capabilities and that would 187 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 9: likely be the focus of any initial American strike. What 188 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 9: is causing concern is that Iran's remaining capabilities could still 189 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 9: have an impact on America's golf friends and partners. So 190 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 9: the region I think feels on edge and very vulnerable. 191 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 9: There's also Iran, as your viewers will know, staged a 192 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 9: military exercise in the Straits of Hormuz. That is of 193 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 9: course also making people quite nervous because that's, of course 194 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 9: we're twenty percent of the world's daily oil consumption passes 195 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 9: through that strait. Now, when we've seen the military action 196 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 9: that I referred to earlier unfold in the Gulf over 197 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 9: the last months and even years, but particularly in the 198 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 9: last year, all that military operation didn't really raise the 199 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 9: price of oil because it didn't disrupt supplies. Something that 200 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 9: brought conflict into the Golf and particularly into the Straits 201 00:10:55,440 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 9: of Hormones would certainly disrupt supplies, and the markets are 202 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 9: telling us that they really do distinguish between military force 203 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 9: and military force that disrupts oil supplies. 204 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 6: Megan, we talked about your experience in two thousand and three. 205 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 6: Four years later, you are credited with being one of 206 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 6: the original advocates of the surge strategy, and I'm wondering 207 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 6: what your advice would be to the administration when it 208 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 6: comes to the day after conversation. What are they mapping 209 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 6: out for scenarios and what should they be prepared for. 210 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 9: Well, I think this gets the point I made earlier 211 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 9: about what is the objective that the Trump administration would 212 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 9: be seeking there's several objectives that they may embrace, and 213 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 9: it's not entirely clear to someone who's not involved in 214 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 9: the internal discussions. You know, certainly one objective could feasibly 215 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 9: be regime change, and that makes it akin to the 216 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 9: American action in two thousand and three that got rid 217 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 9: of Saddam Hussein from Iraq. Now, in the last year, 218 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 9: President Trump has demonstrated the kind of an allergy to 219 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 9: that kind of intervention because of the really open endedness 220 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,079 Speaker 9: of that. And certainly that is one of the scenarios 221 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:15,559 Speaker 9: that I think deserves very significant attention is what would 222 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 9: happen if one of two things happened. What would happen 223 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 9: if US military force was targeting the regime, the Supreme Leader, 224 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 9: elements of the IRGC that brought about a regime collapse. Now, 225 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 9: certainly my experience in Iraq and that of many many 226 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 9: other Americans in our coalition allies, was that that collapse 227 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 9: takes a very very long time to rebuild, to reconstitute, 228 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 9: and opens up a security vacuum that can have a 229 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 9: lot of unanticipated consequences. So I find it hard to 230 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 9: manage that a collapse of the regime wouldn't require a 231 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 9: much more robust American engagement in Iran for potentially a 232 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 9: much longer period, something way beyond. I think the American 233 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,839 Speaker 9: people are interested in right now. Whether the Trump administration 234 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 9: has had a relationship with some members of the IRGC 235 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 9: that could take over and something that would be more 236 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,839 Speaker 9: seamless and less disruptive is only probably known to the 237 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:17,559 Speaker 9: President and his closest advisors. 238 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 2: Well, so, Megan, it sounds like you're saying in our 239 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 2: final minute here that there is a risk that we 240 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 2: accidentally tumble into another, if not forever war, forever presence. 241 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 9: You know, I think there is a risk. I wouldn't 242 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 9: say it is the central risk right now. My guess is, 243 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 9: if we look at President Trump's his propensity to use 244 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 9: military force, it has always been quite targeted for a 245 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 9: specific objective, without the intention to get involved over the 246 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 9: longer term. And so my near term expectation would be 247 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 9: first a real push for a deal. I don't take 248 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 9: the ten day window to be definitive. Certainly there's been 249 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,559 Speaker 9: flexibility on timing on a lot of these conflicts. We 250 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 9: look at Ukraine, which was going to be solved, you know, 251 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 9: in the hours running up to the inauguration, so I 252 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 9: think the desire for a deal is going to be real. 253 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 9: It depends if the ir adience can show more flexibility. Secondly, 254 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 9: if there is military force, I think it will go 255 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 9: after the ballistic missiles. I think the idea that the 256 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 9: Trump administration would want to topple the regime without any 257 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 9: real prospect for stabilizing the country is something that I 258 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 9: think is a risk, but not the largest risk that 259 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 9: we are exposed. 260 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 5: To right now. 261 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 6: Well, Megan, we'd like to stay close to you for 262 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 6: the next ten days as we figure this out. 263 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 4: Really appreciate your insights. 264 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 6: Megan O'Sullivan former Deputy National Security Advisor in the George W. 265 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 4: Bush administration. 266 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 6: She's now at the Harvard Belfast Center, where she is director. 267 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. 268 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 6: We'll have much more coming up after this. 269 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 270 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 271 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: Apple coul and Android Otto with the Blueberg Business app. 272 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 273 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg. 274 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 8: Eleven thirty. 275 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 2: Here in Washington, where President Trump no longer is He 276 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 2: departed earlier this hour on route now to Georgia, specifically 277 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: to the former district to former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green. 278 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 2: Probably not a coincidence, given the fallout between the President 279 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 2: and someone who was once one of his most loyal 280 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 2: allies in Congress, but his message that he will be 281 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 2: bringing there regardless of district is one that he's hoping 282 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 2: to take across the whole country, at least of Susie 283 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: Wiles's chief of staff, has her way, which is a 284 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 2: message around affordability, something we also expect him to focus 285 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 2: on at the State of the Union next week. Perhaps 286 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 2: this speech today will be a preview of the speech 287 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 2: on Tuesday, though he also gave us another preview of 288 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 2: the speech on Tuesday when he spoke yesterday. 289 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 3: Much the State of the Union, we're going to be 290 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 3: talking about the economy. We inherited a mess, and now 291 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 3: we have prices way down, we have energy way down. 292 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 3: Gasoline is now breaking two dollars a gallon in many places, 293 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 3: and it's been actually amazing. 294 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 6: So President Trump is on his way now, and of 295 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 6: course we've got a speech set for a bit later 296 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 6: on that actually may coincide with the late edition of 297 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 6: Balance of Power, which starts at five pm Eastern. The 298 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 6: Kusa Steel Corporation is where this is going to be happening, 299 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 6: right across the street from the Darlington Softball Field, and 300 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 6: the President will be talking in his element as we 301 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 6: always hear. He's happier on the road. The question is 302 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 6: will he deliver the message? Will he stick to the 303 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 6: scripts on a day that began with a meeting of 304 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 6: the President's Board of Peace and has been consumed by 305 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 6: talk of a potential strike against Iran. This is where 306 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 6: we start today with our political panel. Republican strategist Mara 307 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 6: Gillespie is back with us. Founder and president of Bluestack Strategies. 308 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 6: Doug Ferrr, democratic strategist is with us as well, principal 309 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 6: at Maywood Strategies and former senior advisor to FTC Commissioner 310 00:16:57,720 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 6: Lena Kahn. 311 00:16:58,280 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 4: It's great to have you both with us. 312 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 6: Mara, what's your expectation because the tour was sidelined a bit, 313 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 6: the affordability tour. At one point we heard he'd be 314 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 6: traveling every week and he missed a couple. Can he 315 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 6: get the message back on track in Georgia. 316 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 10: I think that the next position today between his announcement 317 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 10: at the Board of Peace that the United States is, 318 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 10: you know, pluging ten billion dollars and then going to 319 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 10: a town in Georgia where, yes, we'll be looking to 320 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 10: see how often he talks or mentions margin Taylor Green, 321 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 10: the former congresswoman, But in a town and area where 322 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,400 Speaker 10: roughly twenty percent of the population is below the povery line, 323 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 10: and then you're talking about ten billion dollars for this 324 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 10: board of piece that you've created that you're the chairman of. 325 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,640 Speaker 10: I just think that that contrast there is gonna be stark. 326 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 10: And so if he can stay focused on the issues 327 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 10: that matter to that community and which is manufacturing and 328 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 10: bringing jobs home and things of that nature, then maybe 329 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 10: he'll fare well. But if he goes on a ninety 330 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 10: five plus minute speech and hitting his you know, the 331 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 10: highlight reel, I don't know that that really sits as 332 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 10: well when people are hurting. 333 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 3: Well. 334 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 2: It strikes me, Doug, how similar this moment feels for 335 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,719 Speaker 2: a US president compared to two years ago when we 336 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,120 Speaker 2: were talking about President Joe Biden, who at that time 337 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 2: was still seeking reelection and was trying and pretty much 338 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 2: failing to convince voters that the economy was better than 339 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 2: they felt it is that the data was better than 340 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 2: what they were experiencing. We know that Biden largely was 341 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 2: unsuccessful in that. How what would it take for Donald 342 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,239 Speaker 2: Trump to be successful? Knowing he himself isn't even up 343 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,239 Speaker 2: for reelection. This is really about convincing voters that the 344 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 2: party is worth continuing to. 345 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 11: Keep it power. 346 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, at least Joe Biden tried. 347 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 12: I think, you know, the chances of Donald Trump sticking 348 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 12: to an affordability message in Marjorie Taylor Green's district after 349 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 12: he sent the FBI into Georgia to get their voter 350 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 12: file as functionally zero and so I think he's going 351 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 12: to have a real struggle. And you know, I mean, 352 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 12: he announced a ten billion dollar Board of Peace today. 353 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 12: This is sort of this crazy vanity project. It's the 354 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 12: Donald Trump Board of Peace, announced by Donald Trump at 355 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 12: the Donald Trump Institute of Peace. You know, there's some 356 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 12: questions about whether this ten billion dollars that he transferred 357 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 12: to it was actually a legitimate move of federal resources. 358 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 12: So look, I mean, people are hurting the president is 359 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 12: not doing anything to lower costs for people, and I 360 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 12: suspect he probably won't talk about it that much. 361 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 6: Today he's apparently showing up with a deliverable here, Mora, 362 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 6: a six hundred million dollar industrial diamonds plant funded by 363 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 6: Japan as he tries to address moving supply chains away 364 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 6: from China. And that's a busy day. I mean, there 365 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 6: is some strategy behind this. He's got the local business stop, 366 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 6: followed by a podcast interview, then the factory tour, and 367 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 6: then the speech itself, which would coincide with nightly news 368 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 6: if things stay on time. 369 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 4: And they're already way off the schedule here, Mora. 370 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 6: You spent time running communications for a former Speaker of 371 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 6: the House in John Bayner. Is this the kind of 372 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 6: day that you need to see on his schedule for 373 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 6: the rest of the campaign. 374 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 10: I think that if he can do it, and I 375 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 10: don't suspect that it will be a timely operation, but 376 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 10: I do that it's important to get on to get 377 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 10: on the ground, and for him, especially because so much 378 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 10: of his focus has been foreign policy related, and his 379 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 10: base and those who support him wholeheartedly, they need to 380 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 10: see him out there chatting issues that matter to them 381 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,639 Speaker 10: and actually delivering on things that he promised them. If 382 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 10: it's helpful to Republicans in that area to have him 383 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 10: and his presence there, then great for the GOP and 384 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 10: as they look forward to a what's going to. 385 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 8: Be a very rough mid term for him. 386 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 10: And it doesn't matter even though he's not on the ballot, 387 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 10: even though he's not running again, It does matter to 388 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 10: him what happens the midterms, obviously because it dictates the 389 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 10: next two years of his presidency. And so he should 390 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 10: be taking an active role and talking about affordability and 391 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 10: talking about housing costs and talking about supply chains and 392 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 10: are you know, essentially pushing back against the stronghold that 393 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 10: China has. If he can do that in a you know, 394 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 10: responsible way, in a tailored way, then that's great. 395 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 9: But I have I have a little bit of doubts. 396 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 9: Jill Well. 397 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 2: The White House just kicked out a press release about 398 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 2: the visit to Georgia today. I think it probably details 399 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 2: what they are hoping the speech will touch on if 400 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 2: it is read as written. No surprises here, necessarily. They 401 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 2: talk about tax relief, boosting take home pay for working 402 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 2: families in Georgia. There's a touch on what Joe was 403 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 2: mentioning as well. Major investments creating jobs in the state. 404 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 2: But the very first bullet point here is what sticks 405 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 2: out to me, which is lower energy costs are putting 406 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 2: money back in Georgian's pockets. Noting the average gas price 407 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 2: in Georgia right now is two seventy one a gallon, 408 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 2: down forty percent from the all time record high during 409 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 2: the Biden era. And we're talking about lower gas prices 410 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 2: here At the same time, Doug that Joe and I 411 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 2: are fresh off a conversation with a national security expert 412 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 2: who knows that Iren, if attacked, could very well close 413 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 2: the Strait of Removed, which is about a quarter of 414 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 2: the world's oil flows through it. Could President Trump's geopolitical 415 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 2: efforts actually be working against his domestic efforts in terms 416 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,679 Speaker 2: of prices. Ultimately, if he does decide to strip, they 417 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 2: absolutely are. 418 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 12: I mean, they've raised costs for healthcare, they've raised costs 419 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 12: for housing, they've raised cross the costs the board. 420 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 5: They haven't delivered manufacturing jobs. 421 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,120 Speaker 12: The one bright Spoty talks about all the time gas 422 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:02,479 Speaker 12: is going to be lower than two dollars. 423 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 4: Well, I saw a report that said if he goes forward. 424 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 12: With this emission in Iran, it could spike to a 425 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 12: barrel of weal Coe's spiked to ninety dollars, the price 426 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 12: could go through the roof. So not only is he 427 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 12: working against himself, he's eliminating probably the one area where 428 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 12: he's actually delivered real price reductions. 429 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,119 Speaker 4: Heading into a midterm. 430 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 12: That could be a real bloodbath for the Republicans. 431 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 6: If there's a strike, although we are seeing, to Kaylee's point, 432 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 6: movement ahead of that. I'd be with WTI back above 433 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 6: what or were we have six since August of last 434 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 6: sixty six. 435 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 4: And a half of two percent. 436 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 6: That two dollars and seventy one cents a gallon that 437 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 6: that they're linking to in Georgia probably won't stay that way. 438 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 6: To your point, Kayley, how important Mora when you think 439 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 6: about the economic implications is it for Donald Trump to 440 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,719 Speaker 6: make a deal, to find a deal with Iran? If 441 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,400 Speaker 6: affordability is what matters, well, I. 442 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 10: Think it should matter in terms of what are the 443 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 10: goals with his feud with Iran. I don't think any 444 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 10: of us should have any sympathy for the eye. They're 445 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 10: committing heinous war crimes and human rights violations against their 446 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 10: own people right now and have done so for a 447 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 10: very long time, But I think that there is a 448 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 10: conflict in what the intentions are with this battle. Is 449 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 10: this to help Israel? Is this an ego fight? Is 450 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 10: this about human rights? Is is about oil? I think 451 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 10: there is confusion for many Americans and many people around 452 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 10: the world about what the real driving force is here, 453 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,199 Speaker 10: and these threats of saying that the strikes can come 454 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 10: as soon. 455 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:29,120 Speaker 8: As this weekend. 456 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 10: I do think again to what I was saying earlier 457 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 10: about the heavy emphasis the president has played in foreign 458 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 10: policy as opposed to local issues, as opposed to issues 459 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,199 Speaker 10: that got him elected. Is what's going to frustrate his voters, 460 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 10: but also the American people when they don't see the 461 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 10: golden Native of America impacting them and only impacting those 462 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 10: who are most powerful and most wealthy. 463 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 2: Well and Moura to that point, that is actually what 464 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 2: is behind the fracture between him and Marjorie Taylor Green right, 465 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 2: and part it was the Epstein files, but also because 466 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 2: she felt like he was abandoning magat America's first movement 467 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 2: was supposed to stand for. 468 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 8: She's been tweeting up a. 469 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 2: Storm about the prospect of war in Iran in the 470 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 2: last few days. Could President Trump actually be greeted in Georgia, 471 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 2: in her old district by a lot more people who 472 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 2: think like she does and feel that way than he expects. 473 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 10: I'm certainly curious to see what the reception will be 474 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 10: and if there are more people who will speak out about, 475 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,679 Speaker 10: you know, this promise that he made about not starting 476 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 10: wars and about focusing on America first and making America great. 477 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:28,600 Speaker 10: It does seem as though and she's pointing out a 478 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 10: lot of things that conflict with that. And again, she 479 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 10: represented this area, and she knows that the medium income 480 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 10: is fifty thousand or so a year, and they're struggling, 481 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 10: and they're trying to pay their bills and to see 482 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 10: you know, buildings in DC go up with gold and 483 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 10: marble and things of that nature, it does conflict. And 484 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 10: it doesn't make them feel better because not only can they, 485 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 10: you know, sit there and take his promises and hope 486 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 10: and hope and hope, but not to see anything home 487 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,919 Speaker 10: to fruition. How long can they hold out for? And 488 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 10: so I'm curious that the reception will be. Yes, I 489 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 10: think that people are going to be excited to see him, regardless, 490 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 10: because the who are loyal to Donald Trump, there is 491 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 10: this Maga fever that still holds pretty true in certain 492 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 10: areas of the country. But there is fraying and there 493 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 10: is fracturing, and I'm keeping my eye on that for sure. 494 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 6: More and Doug, we've been talking for a better part 495 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 6: of ten minutes without mentioning a partial government shutdown that 496 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 6: is now in its sixth day. It's not above the fold, 497 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 6: it's not even on the front page. And I guess 498 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 6: when you have one agency, maybe things go by. And 499 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,680 Speaker 6: we know that ICE is funded through the big beautiful Bill, 500 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 6: but in a couple of weeks we're going to be 501 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 6: talking about missed paychecks for FEMA, for the TSA, Doug. 502 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,920 Speaker 6: In a remaining moment, this is an affordability issue as 503 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 6: well for those families. Do Democrats risk losing the narrative 504 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 6: when that kicks in. 505 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 12: There's certainly a risk, because, like you said, FEMA and 506 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:43,919 Speaker 12: TSA and others can have an impact not only on 507 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 12: those workers, but on our lives if there's an emergency. 508 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 12: I saw a headline that said that ICE is spending 509 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 12: something close to forty billion dollars buying up warehouses where 510 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 12: they plan to host people before they deport them. You know, 511 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 12: as long as the issue of immigration the way Donald 512 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 12: Trump is pursuing it continues in this manner, I think 513 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 12: Democrats are going to have a field day with this one. 514 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,400 Speaker 2: All right, Doug Fair, We appreciate you joining us our 515 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 2: political panel today alongside Mara Gillespie here on Balance of Power. 516 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 2: We're going to have more on the President's remarks in Georgia, 517 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 2: the message he's bringing, who he's bringing it to, and 518 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 2: how it will all resonate with Andre Gillespie of Emory University. 519 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 520 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 4: more coming up after this. 521 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 522 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 523 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 524 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 525 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 526 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 6: The President is not focused on Iran, at least that's 527 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 6: not the plan as he heads for Georgia this afternoon, 528 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 6: having spent the better part of the morning dealing with 529 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 6: his Board of Peace in its inaugural meeting here in Washington, 530 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 6: d C. The destination Rome, Georgia, the district once represented 531 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 6: by Marjorie Taylor Green. That is the next stop so 532 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 6: called affordability tour that the White House has been promoting. 533 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 6: Here's Press Secretary of Caroline Levitt. 534 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 13: Georgia is obviously a very important state to the President 535 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 13: and to the Republican Party, and the President loves the 536 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,959 Speaker 13: people of Georgia. He'll be touring, like I said, a 537 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 13: steel facility, and then he'll also be stopping by another 538 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 13: local business, and he will be giving remarks on affordability, 539 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 13: on the economy, on all of the great economic news 540 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 13: that he's spoken about, his intention to go across the 541 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 13: country a lot more, and obviously tomorrow's trip is evidence 542 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 13: of that. 543 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 2: So for more we turn out to Andre Gillespie of 544 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 2: Emory University, who is back with us here on Balance 545 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 2: of Power. And it's been some time. It's good to 546 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 2: have you back on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 547 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 8: Andre. 548 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 2: As we consider this affordability message, and I would note 549 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 2: that there is a great piece on the idea of 550 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,920 Speaker 2: affordability and the squeeze Americans are feeling. It's our big 551 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,679 Speaker 2: take piece today that can be found on the terminal 552 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 2: or on Bloomberg dot com. But it notes how since 553 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 2: the pandemic, what used to cost one hundred dollars now 554 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 2: cost the American family one hundred and twenty six dollars. 555 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,159 Speaker 2: It goes bit by bit to things like groceries, with 556 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 2: flower up forty percent since twenty twenty, seafood up twenty 557 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 2: three percent, medical costs pretty remarkable as well, nursing homes 558 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 2: of twenty nine percent, for example. Now, a lot of 559 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 2: this did happen when Donald Trump was not president, and 560 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 2: yet he is president now, and it's his burden to bear. 561 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,639 Speaker 2: What will it take for him to be successful in 562 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,439 Speaker 2: turning that narrative around and convincing people in Georgia and 563 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 2: elsewhere that actually he's doing good things for them on 564 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 2: the question of affordability. 565 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 8: Well, thanks for having me. 566 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 14: President Trump has a big task ahead of him, and 567 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 14: I think he's figuring out that. Just as it was 568 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 14: hard for President Biden to convince the American public that 569 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 14: he had a handle on the affordability situation, President Trump 570 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 14: is also having a trouble claiming the narrative, and he's 571 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 14: trying to retake the narrative with this national tour and 572 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 14: this stop in Georgia. I think he's trying to stop 573 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 14: Democrats who have used affordability as a way to triangulate 574 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,560 Speaker 14: Trump policy and to point out that President Trump has 575 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 14: not kept his campaign. 576 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 8: Promises with respect to that. 577 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 14: So I think he's trying to pivot and reclaim the 578 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:10,480 Speaker 14: narrative and use terminology that will help voters see that 579 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,160 Speaker 14: he is doing. 580 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 8: What he can. 581 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 14: The problem with this is that there are the economic 582 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 14: numbers that he can look at. He can look at 583 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 14: how inflation was lower than expected last month, but there's 584 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,960 Speaker 14: also the way people perceive and how people feel about 585 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 14: these particular issues, and so the mood isn't good. And 586 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 14: if we look at President Trump's national numbers in terms 587 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 14: of job approval on issues related to the economy and inflation, 588 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 14: he is typically in most national polls underwater and underwater 589 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 14: by a substantial amount in a lot of these poles. 590 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 14: So he really is behind the eight ball a little bit, 591 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 14: and I think he's trying to figure out what message 592 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 14: will actually resonate and pierce through the malaise that a 593 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 14: lot of people feel because they expected, given the promises 594 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 14: on the twenty twenty four campaign trail, that this was 595 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 14: one going to be his top priority and that he 596 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 14: was going to address it quickly, and that hasn't materialized. 597 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 6: Well, Professor, we were struck as Kayley and I were 598 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 6: thinking back the last time we had a chance to 599 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 6: compare notes with you, and even further, let's say two 600 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 6: years ago, the conversations that we were having about this 601 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 6: very same issue when the president's last name was Biden. 602 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 6: What does this President Trump have to learn from his 603 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 6: predecessor when it comes to prices. 604 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 8: I think that there are a lot of things that 605 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 8: you have to learn. One. 606 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 14: Talk is big, but there comes a point at which 607 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 14: you have to deliver. And he might be in the 608 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 14: period right now where it's becoming less plausible for President 609 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 14: Trump to blame everything on the mistakes of the Biden administration. Right, So, 610 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,240 Speaker 14: now that we're more than a year into his administration, 611 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 14: this is his economy and he's going to have to 612 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 14: own it and take responsibility for it. Second, I mean, 613 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 14: you know, the thing that is unique for Biden and 614 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 14: Trump is the fact that President Trump has, you know, 615 00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 14: initiated tariffs from countries around the world. And so it's 616 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 14: a question of to what extent to have those tariffs 617 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 14: actually not actually helped dampen prices, right, I mean, he's 618 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,479 Speaker 14: possibly thinking long term about promoting manufacturing in the United States. 619 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,640 Speaker 14: But I think that there was and has always been 620 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 14: a larger structural question about whether or not that's long 621 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 14: in the long term, a feasible plan in order to 622 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 14: make sure that we can keep prices down in the 623 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 14: United States. 624 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 8: But I think just in general, right it points to. 625 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 14: The role that governments can actually play in helping to 626 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 14: manage the economy, and then what things are outside of 627 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 14: their control, like what is the market kind of doing 628 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 14: on its own that government intervention is not going. 629 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:41,480 Speaker 8: To be able to help. 630 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 14: And I think it's a question of whether or not 631 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 14: government intervention can actually actually end up exacerbating some of 632 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 14: these market phenomena that that we're witnessing. 633 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 2: So under when we consider what this means electorally, knowing 634 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 2: President Trump, unlike Joe Biden, is not up for reelection himself, 635 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 2: but is concerned with what happens in terms of the 636 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 2: outcome of the midterms and whether or not the Republican 637 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 2: Party can retain control of both chambers of Congress. What 638 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 2: is the impact on affordability of affordability likely to be 639 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 2: on voter behavior in the midterm elections. If you're dissatisfied 640 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 2: with the economy, are you more likely to turn out 641 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 2: to vote against. 642 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 8: The party in power. 643 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 2: Are you just less likely to participate at all knowing 644 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 2: it isn't a presidential election year. I just wonder how 645 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,520 Speaker 2: we should think about the force of this, whether it's 646 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 2: driving people to the polls or just encouraging people to 647 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 2: maybe not participate at all. 648 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 14: Yeah, So the way that political scientists would factor this 649 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 14: into modeling is actually a little bit more indirect, even 650 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 14: though there are ways that we can make direct correlations 651 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 14: between perceptions of the economy and vote choice, But in 652 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 14: a lot of the models that would predict. 653 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 8: Vote choice, perceptions. 654 00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:46,320 Speaker 14: Of the economy would funnel into overall perceptions of job approval. 655 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 14: And it's those job approval ratings that are then combined 656 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 14: with other data like voter preferences than the generic ballot 657 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 14: to try to predict how many seats we expect Democrats 658 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 14: and Republicans to win in both the House and the Senate. 659 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,920 Speaker 14: Is going to be an important factor that many voters consider, 660 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 14: and for people who voted for Donald Trump because they 661 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 14: proceed him to be better adept at handling the economy 662 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 14: than Kamala Harris, I think the fear of the concern 663 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 14: is does president Trump have enough time to turn the 664 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 14: economy around and change perceptions, or are those people going 665 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 14: to defect. Are they going to defect to the Republican 666 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 14: Party or are they going to not vote in this election. 667 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 14: Either way, that's going to have an impact on the 668 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 14: results of this midterm election cycle. 669 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 6: Andre Gillespie, we've got about a minute left. I want 670 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 6: to ask you what the conversation is on the ground 671 00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 6: in Georgia following the seizing of ballots and other materials 672 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 6: from Fulden County, which happened at the end of January. 673 00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,920 Speaker 6: Now January twenty eighth, when the FBI rolled into town 674 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 6: Tulsa Gabbard photographed. Is Georgia going to be the center 675 00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 6: of questions about election integrity once again in this election? 676 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 8: President Trump seems to want to make it that way. 677 00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 14: The thing about Georgia that's really interesting is that while 678 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 14: this is still a Republican state, there are many different 679 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 14: types of Republicans in the state, and they hold power 680 00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 14: and compete against each other. 681 00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 8: So there are some Republicans who. 682 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 14: Welcomed this rate, and then there are others who dreaded 683 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,799 Speaker 14: it because it was just resurfacing old issues that they 684 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,320 Speaker 14: were hoping were buried. And then there is the response 685 00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 14: of Democrats. So Democrats have been alarmed by what they 686 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,120 Speaker 14: have seen. They are concerned about voter integrity, they are 687 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 14: concerned about the veracity of the case that's being presented 688 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,880 Speaker 14: in the grounds on which there was a warrant for 689 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,959 Speaker 14: this particular case. And then there are larger concerns about 690 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:33,560 Speaker 14: whether or not this could be used as a tool 691 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 14: of voter suppression. This could be the potential, has the 692 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:42,400 Speaker 14: potential to galvanize voters against President Trump and the Republican Party. 693 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 14: And so this is something that people from the more 694 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 14: establishment wing of the Republican Party would have probably preferred 695 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:49,360 Speaker 14: not happen. 696 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,320 Speaker 6: Great to have you back with us Under Gillespie, professor 697 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,120 Speaker 6: at Emory University ahead of the speech this evening. Thank 698 00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,560 Speaker 6: you professor for joining us. We'll have coverage that address, 699 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,560 Speaker 6: which by the way, may coincided with the late edition 700 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 6: of Balance of Power. So do join us when we 701 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,600 Speaker 6: come back at five pm Eastern time alongside Kaylee Lines, 702 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 6: I'm Joe Matthew with our eyes on oil. This is 703 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 6: something that we want to explore before we hand things 704 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,840 Speaker 6: over to Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Kaylee, where are we 705 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 6: at sixty six dollars West Texas Intermedia sixty six and 706 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 6: a half. Now, this is a two percent move today, 707 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,440 Speaker 6: and of course, you know we were talking about plumbing 708 00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 6: the depths of prices with oil just weeks ago. This 709 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 6: march to a potential strike once again against Iran has 710 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 6: changed the game. 711 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,319 Speaker 4: And we wanted to ask Mike mcgloan about the latest year. 712 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 6: Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist has been a bear on oil. Mike, 713 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 6: is this going to end up being the peak for 714 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,319 Speaker 6: the year, depending on when this story finally breaks, whether 715 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:42,279 Speaker 6: it's a strike or not. 716 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,319 Speaker 5: So, Joe, how'd you note? 717 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,520 Speaker 11: I was thinking, I think that's more likely the case. 718 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,279 Speaker 11: We've had a bear bear market bounds. You know, you 719 00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 11: don't run to sell bear markets in a whole. In 720 00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 11: a fifty five was a low for the year. Right now, 721 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,440 Speaker 11: we're pushing new highs in the year, but it's right 722 00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,440 Speaker 11: around last year's mean. Last year's high was eighty and 723 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,480 Speaker 11: the consistent trend in crude oils. How do we get 724 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,440 Speaker 11: these bounces on potential supply disruption events in the Middle East? 725 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:09,000 Speaker 11: It pick puts in peaks. The Western dominated producers sell 726 00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,799 Speaker 11: forward and prices go back downwards. So all I think 727 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,279 Speaker 11: all traders now are looking for is how high the 728 00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 11: space can it be and when can they reset some 729 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,880 Speaker 11: of their hedges to excrease that supply surplus on the 730 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:20,879 Speaker 11: Western hemisphere. 731 00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 2: Well, so when we think about that supply surplus mcgloan, 732 00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 2: is there the extra capacity in other OPEC producing countries 733 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:33,960 Speaker 2: to offset offset any supply concerns knowing that one of 734 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:37,040 Speaker 2: the scenarios we're gaming out here is potentially that some 735 00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 2: of those golf seats actually can't get that excess capacity 736 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,760 Speaker 2: out if the straight of hooor moves is blocked by Iran? 737 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 2: Is that not a different factor this time around? 738 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,200 Speaker 5: Well, welcome back, Kyley. 739 00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:50,160 Speaker 11: And that's the typical reason people use for prices they 740 00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:51,839 Speaker 11: go up, is some kind of blockage of the Strait 741 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,760 Speaker 11: of Hormus which hurts one country the most, Iran. 742 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:56,279 Speaker 5: So I don't think it's going to hurt too much. 743 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 11: And we all know, mister President, our president has closed 744 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,320 Speaker 11: it up to most and certainly Saudi Arabia, but a 745 00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:02,760 Speaker 11: lot of the Middle Eastern producers. 746 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,600 Speaker 5: We know we can bring that supply on right away. 747 00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 5: He's showed what he's. 748 00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 11: Willing to do to get prices lower by kind of 749 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 11: taking over Venezuela, And what really matters for the midterms, 750 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:11,760 Speaker 11: lower prices. 751 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 5: I think he's going to get it. 752 00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,360 Speaker 6: So save an interruption, and you know, we do have 753 00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,440 Speaker 6: this conversation. You're right, Mike every time, and journalists who 754 00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,440 Speaker 6: don't know as much as you do start writing stories 755 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,759 Speaker 6: about this, because everybody's an expert. When we go to war, 756 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:28,560 Speaker 6: save an actual disruption, including the I guess the closure 757 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,279 Speaker 6: of the strait. Is there spare capacity elsewhere to make 758 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:32,840 Speaker 6: the difference? 759 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:33,839 Speaker 5: Oh? 760 00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 11: Sure, absolutely, Saudi Arabi can come bring back Beckham where 761 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:37,520 Speaker 11: they start a curtail. 762 00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 5: A little bit at opech look at bottom line. 763 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,440 Speaker 6: We could have a protracted military operation and it doesn't 764 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 6: actually send prices higher than where we are exactly. 765 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,400 Speaker 11: Initially, it'll be about, okay, is there going to be 766 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,880 Speaker 11: an immediate supply disruption, we'll judge that. If not, it 767 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,760 Speaker 11: might just accelebrate the pre existing terms. But having traded 768 00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,280 Speaker 11: through the Gulf War, I just remember the peak started 769 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 11: kicked in right when the invasions started, even before we 770 00:37:59,000 --> 00:37:59,439 Speaker 11: really knew. 771 00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:00,879 Speaker 5: So if there's not. 772 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,400 Speaker 11: A swift resolution to whatever might happen, that's a problem. 773 00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 5: But right now. 774 00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,359 Speaker 11: This is just adding to that bear market sensitivity. How 775 00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:09,840 Speaker 11: long can we state these high prices? 776 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:10,320 Speaker 4: Awesome? 777 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,960 Speaker 11: What happens typically takes a little spike, cleanse the shorts, 778 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 11: and then you go back down. 779 00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,640 Speaker 2: Mike, just quickly, as you mentioned President Trump's desire to 780 00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:20,400 Speaker 2: get oil prices lower, and how you think that might 781 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,799 Speaker 2: be connected to the action we've seen in Venezuela. What 782 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,319 Speaker 2: role does Venezuelan and oil play in the market now, 783 00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:26,279 Speaker 2: what influence does it have? 784 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,719 Speaker 5: Well, it's Kaylee. 785 00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 11: It's part of that shift to the western hemisphere from 786 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,640 Speaker 11: Canada dot to Argentina. Just US and Canada alone, our 787 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,080 Speaker 11: net liquid fuel crudo exports are running eight million barrels 788 00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,520 Speaker 11: a day. With that in context, when crudel peaked at 789 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 11: one forty five, we were importing about eleven million barrels 790 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:43,880 Speaker 11: a day. 791 00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,320 Speaker 5: So it's just shifting that focus. 792 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,640 Speaker 11: Venezuela is adding to that trend of more supply from Canada, 793 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,840 Speaker 11: the US, Brazil, Argentina, Guyana. 794 00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,719 Speaker 5: You see the trend there. So it's also it's kind 795 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 5: of made a statement a lot of that. 796 00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,239 Speaker 11: Brazil I'm sorry, Venezuela Loya went to Cuba and now 797 00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 11: they're getting cut up. 798 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,799 Speaker 5: So this is putting kind of closing, narrowing. 799 00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:07,680 Speaker 11: Down Iran and China and Russia in their connections. 800 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,920 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McLoone down in Miami, Florida, 801 00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,360 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us. And Mike, of 802 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,239 Speaker 2: course speaking to what we're seeing in oil, what he 803 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,799 Speaker 2: thinks you can see in oil, Joe, potentially if it 804 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,560 Speaker 2: is lower prices, I guess it's good news for President 805 00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,320 Speaker 2: Trump and that that is one of the primary messages 806 00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,160 Speaker 2: he wants to be able to bring to Georgia and 807 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,879 Speaker 2: elsewhere on his affordability tour well. 808 00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,439 Speaker 6: And certainly as we talk about gasoline prices, President pointed 809 00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 6: to two dollars seventy one cents the average in Georgia 810 00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,920 Speaker 6: right now. Nationally we're at two ninety two, and so 811 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,680 Speaker 6: we'll keep tabs on these for you. Incidentally, seventy six 812 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,880 Speaker 6: degrees where Miami Mike mcglohone. 813 00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,120 Speaker 4: Is located today, I have Bloomberg Intelligence. Just let that 814 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 4: wash over you. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 815 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:51,560 Speaker 4: Power podcast. 816 00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,279 Speaker 6: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 817 00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 6: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 818 00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,800 Speaker 6: us live every weekday from Washington, d See at noontime 819 00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,400 Speaker 6: Eastern at bloomberg dot com.