1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is your betting 3 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 2: preview for UFC two seventy four. I'm Sean Zerrilla, joined 4 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 2: today by my guy Billy Ward, former professional MMA fighter. 5 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about both main events, both title fights, 6 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: the men's lightweight title fight and the woman's strawweight title fight. 7 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: We're also going to talk about the featured bat between 8 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 2: Tony Ferguson and Michael Chandler. Give you your favorite underdog 9 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 2: plays on the card. Billy's gonna talk to DFS and 10 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: we're gonna get you out of here with our favorite bets. 11 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 3: Let's jump right into the main event. 12 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: Justin Gaichie plus one forty five Charles Olvera the current champion, 13 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 2: minus one seventy Gay Chee, the former interim champion. This 14 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 2: is a highly highly volatile fight. Charles has had twenty 15 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 2: seven career UFC fights, twenty four which event decide the distance. 16 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 2: Gai Chee nine UFC fights, eight evented decide the distance, 17 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 2: and frankly, I don't know how his last fight with 18 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 2: Michael Chandler went the full fifteen minutes. Seemed like Gaigie 19 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 2: should have been out at one point on his feet. 20 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 2: Chandler got knocked down viciously, thought his head was gonna 21 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: fly into the third row from an uppercut, and I 22 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 2: could see this one being extremely volatile as well, because 23 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 2: these are two of the best action in fighters, not 24 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 2: only in the UFC right now, but maybe in UFC history. 25 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 2: Charles is probably going to try to pressure early, which 26 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 2: he does to most fighters, and that could be to 27 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 2: his detriment. He is a great technical striker, probably a 28 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 2: better technician on the feet and more versatile than what 29 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 2: Gaichee offers, and that could prove to be his downfall. 30 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: We've seen him get knocked down badly in both fights 31 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 2: Michael Chandler and Dustin Poyer, both of his title fights recently. 32 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 2: Some refs might have ended the fight called him out. 33 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 2: He invited those fighters to the ground. They didn't really 34 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 2: follow him there, allow them time to recover, get back 35 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 2: to his feet, and eventually he ended up finishing both 36 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 2: of them. Now, he was able to put Chandler down, 37 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 2: so that tells you something about his power or the 38 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 2: fact that Geigee couldn't put Chandler down and Charles knocked 39 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: him out with a check left hook. I'mentually put him 40 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 2: away with the ground strikes. But Geegee's boxing is very dangerous, 41 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 2: and if Charles tries to hang out in space stands 42 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 2: in front of him, he does not move his head well. 43 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 2: Could absolutely see Gechee putting him down or putting him 44 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 2: out with a combination. But if Charles ends up initiating 45 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 2: the grappling right away and is able to get past 46 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 2: Geigee's takedown defense, Getchie a great wrestler, very good takedown defense, 47 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 2: But once you break through that first level takedown defense, 48 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: he's very susceptible on the mat and very susceptible to 49 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 2: the grappling. We saw Kabeb run right through him and 50 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 2: submit him. Kabeb didn't do to any previous opponent. That 51 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: kind of tells you something about Gaiche's grappling. Once the 52 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 2: fight does hit the mat, standing rear naked shook always 53 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: a possibility for Charles. 54 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 3: I love the unders here. I like the unders. 55 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 2: Before this came out, could have told me blind the 56 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,519 Speaker 2: under is under one and a half is plus money? 57 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 3: Sure, what about that? 58 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 2: I would have thought it would be juiced, the under 59 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 2: one and a half sitting around plus one fifty. I 60 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 2: sprinkled that prop I much prefer the under two and 61 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 2: a half and the under three and a half. The 62 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 2: under two and a half sitting around minus one forty 63 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,079 Speaker 2: five at DraftKings, I bet an under three and a 64 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 2: half at minus two ten of points bet. I think 65 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 2: those are both tremendous bets given how these guys fight. 66 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 2: I have a really difficult time seeing this fight go 67 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 2: fifteen minutes, let alone twenty minutes or even twenty five. 68 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 2: I'm happy to accept losing all three of those wagers 69 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 2: just based upon how this fight's gonna play out. Billy, 70 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 2: I'm having a tough time picking a side of this 71 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 2: money line because of the volatility, because of the variants 72 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 2: that you could experience. The Charles recover quickly if he 73 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 2: gets hit with a big strike, I'm expecting them to 74 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 2: get hit with a big strike, and does gates you 75 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 2: to defend the takedowns and keep this on the feet. 76 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 2: The Charles decided to keep it on the feed himself, 77 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 2: so really could see it playing out in a variety 78 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 2: of ways, but I expect somebody to get finished in 79 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 2: violent fashion at some point. Do you have a side here? 80 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 2: Are you playing totals? How are you interested in betting 81 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 2: this fight? 82 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 4: Yeah? I'm with you. I don't think either side of 83 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 4: the money line is a great value. 84 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 5: If I was betting that, I think Aliverra minus one 85 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 5: sixty five is probably the right side of that. It 86 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 5: comes back to that two out of three phases than 87 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 5: we talk about where better striker, and he's definitely better 88 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 5: if it. 89 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 4: Gets to the ground. 90 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 5: That power is the question mark because gaythee has the 91 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 5: power advantage, and you know, can Aliverra get it to 92 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 5: the ground against the superior wrestler. 93 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 4: Those are both question marks. But I still think, you know, when. 94 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 5: He's pretty clearly superior in one of the phizzes and 95 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 5: in my opinion, has an advantage in the other, I 96 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 5: do like that even at minus one sixty five. But 97 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 5: I'm really looking for is live betting opportunities on OLIVERA. 98 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 5: We talked about live betting a lot last week. One 99 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 5: thing I should have gotten to but didn't is how 100 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 5: much leg kicks can add up. You know, with any market, 101 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 5: we're trying to look for something that's not priced into 102 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 5: the line we see, and it's very possible to land 103 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 5: four or five leg kicks in a round that you 104 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 5: lost but still be set up better moving forward and 105 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 5: Olivera has all the upside. 106 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 4: In that regard. Here Gaithy is not really a great kicker. 107 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 5: Olivera tends to land a lot of them, so I 108 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 5: could see around Olivera gets hurt, maybe places Possim a 109 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 5: little bit like we were talking about to try to 110 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 5: get Gaythy to follow him to the ground. But if 111 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 5: he's landed four or five leg kicks in there, those 112 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 5: add up over time. So if we see him getting 113 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 5: close to even money or even you know, minus one twenty, 114 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 5: that's what I'm looking for after the first or second rounds. 115 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 4: If he's beating up that front leg of Gaiety. 116 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, Gechee can hammer Charles's leg a little bit, but 117 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 2: actually what I think could be the bigger discrepancy is 118 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 2: the front kicks and the knees from Charles. If he's 119 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 2: able to hammer Geichie with tea kicks to the body, 120 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 2: potentially get inside in the clinch hammer and with some 121 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 2: knees to the body, I think that a type of 122 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 2: attritional work can actually wear on Gaichie pretty quickly. We 123 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 2: saw him tire out running around the cage from Kabeb 124 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 2: tired up pretty quickly actually, and people thought he had 125 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 2: fantastic cardio before that. But if you give him the 126 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: type of fight he wants, I think he can punch 127 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 2: all day, box all day, kind of avoid you to 128 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 2: play matador and keep throwing combinations, counterink, stepping off. But 129 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 2: if you're going to force him back against the cage, 130 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 2: pressure him and hit him to the body, I think 131 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 2: you can wear him down pretty quickly. So I actually 132 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 2: agreed carl If Charles has the cardio advantage in my opinion, 133 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: and I don't think that's necessarily the consensus opinion. I 134 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 2: would actually think more people suspect that Gaechee is the 135 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 2: cardio advantage. He's been five rounds. Charles has never been 136 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 2: to a fourth round in his career. But it's the 137 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 2: unders there for me. Let's talk about about the comin event. 138 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 2: Thug Rose minus two to twenty five ros Namahunas the 139 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 2: current strawweight champion in a rematch with Carla Sparza. This 140 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 2: was the first strawway title fight in UFC history back 141 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 2: in twenty fourteen. Carla won by third round submission. Rose 142 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 2: was very young inter professional career at that point. She 143 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 2: had only had three professional fights leading into that. It 144 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 2: was the tough finale. Rose has gone five rounds more 145 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 2: recently twice. I believe in her past three fights. Carla 146 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 2: has gone five rounds before back in Victa once she 147 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: won the Invicta Championship, hasn't done it in a while, 148 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 2: and she has the type of style where I worry 149 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 2: about her ability to survive into the fourth and fifth round. 150 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 2: She's going to be need to be very, very aggressive 151 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 2: with her wrestling here. That said, I expect her to 152 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 2: have some early success, potentially a ton of early success, 153 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 2: maybe even for the first three rounds. Rose's takedown to 154 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 2: event is not good. She got taken down by Willy 155 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 2: Jang multiple times, got mounted, had her back taken, and 156 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 2: Jang is not a grappler. She trained grappling leading up 157 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 2: to that, but she's not primarily a wrestler. She's a 158 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: striker first and foremost. The fact that she had so 159 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 2: much success grappling Rose would give me huge pause about 160 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 2: laying a big, juicy price on Rose. I made Carla 161 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 2: closer to forty percent here, I said, my main concern 162 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 2: is that she tires out from those championship rounds. If 163 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 2: she's shooting twenty takedowns through the first three rounds. She 164 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 2: might look pretty bad in the fourth and fifth round. 165 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 2: I could see Rose staging a link comeback, knocking her out. 166 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 2: Rose's submission game from the bottom doesn't really concern me. 167 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 2: I think Carla's top game is better than Rose's bottom game. 168 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 2: Throws good ground and pound. We saw that in her 169 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 2: last fight, stopping her opponent. Has a good submission game too, 170 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: very good top game, very good wrestler. Actually see her 171 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 2: having most of the early success here, provided she can 172 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 2: take Rose down. If she can't take Rose down, she's 173 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 2: gonna be screwed anyway. But my biggest concern is those 174 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 2: later rounds. If she has to shoot takedowns over and 175 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 2: over again, de pounds how often Rose gets up. So 176 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 2: Rose the more dangerous striker, but Carla has all the 177 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 2: grappling upside. In my opinion, I bet Carla here at 178 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 2: plus five. I set a projecting closer to forty percent 179 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 2: or plus one fifty, maybe jumping live on rows after 180 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 2: round one to round two. If she loses both of 181 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 2: those rounds to top control, do you kind of see 182 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 2: it playing out the same way? Do you give Rose 183 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 2: more of a chance for having early success, Billy, I 184 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 2: do think you'll get a better live price, at least 185 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 2: after round one. I'm expecting Carla to at least land 186 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 2: a takedown and win. 187 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 4: That first round. 188 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 5: Yeah, I like this line a lot better when you 189 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 5: get roses. I think it was like minus one eighty 190 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 5: or something at the open that I was considering. I 191 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 5: didn't bet it, and then it moved against me. So 192 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 5: I'm laying off this one free fight, but I'm with 193 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 5: you on the live and what I'll be looking for 194 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 5: is just how many takedowns it takes as far as 195 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 5: to get her down, because it is extremely tiring to 196 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 5: continue to work for takedowns, especially if your opponents kind 197 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 5: of just leaning up against defence and resting and working 198 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 5: underhots and stuff. 199 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 4: The offensive wrestler there is just burning a ton more 200 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 4: energy than the one defensively. 201 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 5: But there's certainly scenarios out there where as far as 202 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 5: I ask to shoot three or four takedowns before she gets. 203 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 4: One in the first round or two ends up winning 204 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 4: the round. 205 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 5: Because she eventually gets it but just expends a ton 206 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 5: of energy. So that's what I I'm looking for, much 207 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 5: like in the main event, looking to see if we 208 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 5: can get minus one twenty even money, anything like that 209 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 5: if I had to bet this pre fight, I kind 210 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 5: of like Rose inside the distance at plus two hundred. 211 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 5: I think it could be an attritional stoppage down the line. 212 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 5: We've seen her with good kicks and good striking. She's 213 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 5: a ton taller and longer than a Sparsa, which also 214 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 5: makes the takedowns harder, but it gives her a chance 215 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 5: to land shots on the way in I as far 216 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 5: as I keep shooting, But like you, I don't really 217 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 5: think there's a ton of value on either side initially 218 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 5: or on the favorite at the very least, but I'm 219 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 5: looking live is my primary interest. 220 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the under is interesting in general, the 221 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 2: fight to end inside the distance at plus money. I 222 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 2: could see Carla finishing her from top. I could see 223 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 2: Carla tying, tiring out late and getting finished herself, or 224 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 2: I could just see Rose finishing her on the feet. 225 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 3: In general, so that's. 226 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 2: Basically three or four opportunities that I look for for 227 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 2: a fight to end by a finish or potentially live, 228 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 2: and you're getting plus money on it. I didn't bet 229 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 2: at myself. I prefer these SPARSA money line, but I 230 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 2: see some credency under. Certainly, let's talk about some underdogs. Now, 231 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 2: Carla may actually be my favorite underdog in the card. 232 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 2: My other favorite underdog is a bet that Billy has 233 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 2: a best bet, so I'm not gonna spoil that one 234 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 2: because we're both on that underdog too and another woman's fight. 235 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 2: But I am gonna give out a third underdog that 236 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 2: I'm on, Journey Newson in the first fight, the curtain 237 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 2: jerker on the card going against a debutante. I don't 238 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 2: think Newsom should be the underdog here. I think you 239 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 2: should be favored. I wasn't really impressed by what I 240 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 2: saw on Garcia from the Contender series. I don't really 241 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 2: get this line. I think it should be a pick 242 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 2: them at worse getting around plus one twenty five on 243 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 2: a fight that should be a coin flip. I don't 244 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 2: really need to give you much more information than that. 245 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 2: Plus one twenty five flip a coin one hundred times. 246 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna come out ahead. I just don't 247 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 2: see much from Garcia that I like. And Newsom is 248 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 2: an established UFC fighter, has some decent skills. Give him 249 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 2: the grappling upside too, So grappling upside plus money somewhere, 250 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 2: I'm always gonna side not a huge bet. I said, 251 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 2: prefer two other underdogs on the card. But if you 252 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 2: want to get your actions started early, journey, Newsom at 253 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 2: plus one twenty five is not a bad bet, Billy. 254 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 2: I have some prop ways that I'm playing your favorite 255 00:10:58,000 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: underdog on the card. But tell me why you like 256 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 2: Joe to upset Donald SERRONI well. 257 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 5: Real quick before we get there, if anyone's looking about Newsom, 258 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 5: sooner rather than later, because that line has already moved 259 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 5: from one thirty five to one twenty five in his favor, 260 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 5: and you might be right, and that it closes closer 261 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 5: to a pick him, So if anyone wants plus money 262 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 5: on that now all the time. But uh yeah, I'm 263 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 5: looking at Joe Loson. Kind of makes me sad. I'm 264 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 5: a big Seroni fan. This is a really tough fight 265 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 5: to handicap because Loson hasn't fought in two and a 266 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 5: half years and Donald Serni actually hasn't won a fight. 267 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 4: In the whole time that Loson's been off. 268 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 5: But we're really just looking at who is who still 269 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 5: has anything left in the tank, and I give the 270 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 5: edge to Loson. 271 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 4: He's about two years younger a year and a half younger. 272 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 5: He's had about ten total fights and he hasn't taken 273 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 5: the bad recent knockouts that Serroni has. That two and 274 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 5: a half years off might actually work in his favor 275 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 5: because he was knocked out I think in two. 276 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 4: Of the three losses he had before his last win. 277 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 5: But Sroni just keeps getting knockout, keeps getting you know, 278 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 5: bad finishes, keeps taking damage. 279 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 4: And it pushing forty years old. That's not a fighter 280 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 4: I want to bet on. 281 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 5: So I would take los on it closer to even 282 00:11:58,200 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 5: Monni here, but probably i'd take him. 283 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 4: Down to about US one. 284 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 5: I think you can still get some one to fifties 285 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 5: or one forty five spot there. That's more than enough 286 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 5: for me. Really, anything can happen in this fight between 287 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,319 Speaker 5: you know, two older legends that probably aren't as durable 288 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 5: as they once were. But I'll take the guys had 289 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 5: a couple of years off and been a little bit 290 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 5: more durable in recent memory. 291 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 2: Stronie knocked out by Alex Morono almost exactly a year ago, 292 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 2: and that's a battle of Morono, not a power puncher, 293 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 2: more of a point fighter for that didn't get knocked 294 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 2: out by Nico Price, but took a ton of damage 295 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 2: in that fight. I believe there was a tenny round 296 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 2: in there, or I think that was a draw to 297 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 2: a point deduction, but either way, a ton of damage 298 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 2: in that fight, and then before that knocked out in 299 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 2: three of his five LO losses. I don't know if 300 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 2: he's won a round in the UFC since beating Ali 301 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 2: Kitta in twenty nineteen, so it's been a while for 302 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 2: Donald Serni since he's looked like the best version of himself. 303 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 3: I'm on lows on small. 304 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 2: But as I mentioned, there are a couple of props 305 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: that I prefer on that fight on the lows and side, 306 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 2: so I only bet the money line enough. 307 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 3: To cover those props. Let's talk about that to night. 308 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 2: We have to talk about the featured route between Michael 309 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 2: Chandler sitting at minus four hundred and Tony Ferguson at 310 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 2: plus now, based purely off of line discrepancy relative to 311 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 2: his recent fights, maybe there's a value on Tony. I 312 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 2: don't see it, but he closes a favorite against both 313 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 2: Justin Gaichee and Charles Olavera, both guys fighting in the 314 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 2: title fight closed or he opened minus one thirty against 315 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 2: Binil Dariush ended up closing as an underdog. The factor 316 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: remains he either opened or closed as a favorite against 317 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 2: each of his past three opponents, all of which are 318 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 2: much higher level than what he's facing a Michael Channer 319 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 2: not much higher level, but definitely a tear up. In 320 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 2: my opinion, I don't know if Tony's going to survive 321 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 2: the first round here. Michael Chandler is about as dangerous 322 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 2: of a fighter as there is on the planet. For 323 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 2: round one five to seven minutes, he seems to just 324 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 2: be burst after burst after burst, and then he eventually 325 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 2: gases out. So don't like him in five round fights. 326 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 2: Prefer him in three round fights. Could see him easily 327 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,079 Speaker 2: winning the first two rounds. He also has the wrestling 328 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 2: upside here. We've seen Tony's grappling get completely exposed by 329 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 2: both Dariush and Charles Olivera, but the wrestling is what 330 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 2: was really concerning. It's very apparent that Kabebe would have 331 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,680 Speaker 2: just run right through Tony had they ever fought. He 332 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 2: doesn't offer much resistance to takedowns from lesser wrestlers, and 333 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 2: I think Chandler can probably wrestle him whenever he wants. 334 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 2: Kenny hold him down for extended periods. 335 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 4: Not really sure. 336 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 2: Tony has pretty good scrambles, has a good guard, can 337 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: throw up triangles his rubber guard that he plays that 338 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 2: tenth Planet jiu jitsu style. He can be dangerous in 339 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 2: the guard. But Michael Chandler is very difficult to submit. 340 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 2: I just think it's more likely that Tony is getting 341 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 2: his head beat in for the first five minutes. Is 342 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 2: he able to survive. He's one of the most durable 343 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 2: guys in UFC history. Take an absolute beating for twenty 344 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 2: five minutes against Justin Gatchee. Referee stoppage late while he 345 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 2: was still on the feet. I don't even know if 346 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 2: he ever got knocked down in that fight, but it 347 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 2: was an absolute brutalization and that was probably a career 348 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 2: altering beating. Chandler hits like an absolute truck, might hit 349 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 2: harder than anybody at one fifty five in terms of 350 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 2: his early power. I don't know if Tony's going to 351 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 2: survive that round one, though. If he does, maybe a 352 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 2: live bet on Tony after round one you might get 353 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 2: plus seven hundred, you might get plus one thousand. If 354 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: it's a ten eight round. Yeah, I'll bet on Tony 355 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: to stage. I'm back at big, big odds for small stakes, 356 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 2: but I have no interest in taking this pre fight 357 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 2: money line at plus three hundred when if you wait 358 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 2: five minutes you're likely to get double or even tripled 359 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 2: that price. How are you betting this fight? I know 360 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 2: we don't want to see Tony get executed on a 361 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 2: public stage, but it seems like that's entirely possible. 362 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm in lockstout with the chances. 363 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 5: Round one plus two twenty five is the best odds 364 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 5: on that right now. 365 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 4: But this is really a fight. 366 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 5: I'm just I'm far more interested in watching this fight 367 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 5: than I'm betting this fight. You pointed out that he 368 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 5: was a favorite close to favorite in his last three flights. 369 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 5: Each of those guys, we didn't know how good they 370 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 5: were until after they fought Tony Ferguson. You know, debush 371 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 5: has really risen through the rankings in the last year 372 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 5: or so. Ali Vera wasn't like this dominant champion that 373 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 5: we're thinking of him now, and even Gaysey hadn't been 374 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 5: quite the performances that he had since then at the 375 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 5: time he fought Ferguson. And then to the other point, 376 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 5: the durability. A lot of guys are super durable until 377 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 5: the moment they're not, and when you keep taking the 378 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 5: kind of damage he as like. We've seen that with 379 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 5: guys like Chuck Ladell was a great example, like just 380 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 5: Iron Chin, nobody could finish him. Rashad Evans knocked him out, 381 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 5: and then there's three or four in a row, including 382 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 5: Tito when he was like fifty years older whenever they 383 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 5: did that. 384 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 4: But I think we might be at that point with Ferguson. 385 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 5: I think this might be the turning point, and put 386 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 5: him in there with the dangerous power puncher is probably 387 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 5: the time to find out if you have any chin left, 388 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 5: and I'm not sure that he does, so I like 389 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 5: that around one line, and like you said, you know, 390 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 5: if he takes a bad beating but managed to five 391 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 5: round one, I'll probably sprinkle a little bit on the 392 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 5: live line, but nothing major on it. 393 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 2: A lot of people betting the over one and a 394 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 2: half or a lot of people betting the fight to 395 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 2: end inside the distance. Here, I actually disagree with both 396 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 2: of those plays. The over one and a half, that's 397 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 2: when Tony's going to be in the most dangerous in 398 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 2: the first round and if you're betting the over one 399 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 2: and a half, just bet the fight to go to 400 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: a distance at a big plus number. If Tony survived 401 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 2: that round one, I think it's pretty likely that it 402 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 2: actually ends up going to the scorecards. But on the 403 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 2: other hand, I think the fight to end inside the 404 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 2: distance could be an absolute trap for the same reasons. 405 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 2: If Tony ends up surviving that first round, I don't 406 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 2: know if he's getting finished, So just bet the round 407 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 2: one prop like you said, or find a live look 408 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 2: on Tony. I think those are the best two ways 409 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 2: to play the fight. I really don't have any interest 410 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 2: in playing this fight from any other perspective. Now Onto Sleeper. 411 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 2: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions 412 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 2: of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there. 413 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,719 Speaker 2: I use it for mine. It's a game changing product 414 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,400 Speaker 2: unlike anything else in the industry, and now you could 415 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 2: win on Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. 416 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 3: It's super simple. 417 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 2: First, in any sport, cho's two or more players that 418 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 2: you like and pick their over or under, for example, 419 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 2: number of points in basketball or hits in baseball. Then 420 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 2: choose the amount of money you want to enter into 421 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 2: the contest. If you pick correctly, you can win anywhere 422 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 2: from two to over twenty times the amount you put in. 423 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 2: The main reason I'm excited about over Under on Sleeper 424 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,640 Speaker 2: is that it's the only app where I can join 425 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 2: my buddies contest and play together. It's got a built 426 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,040 Speaker 2: in group chat where I can see and copy my 427 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 2: friends picks with the top of a button. It's insanely 428 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 2: fun to ride it out together. So stop what you're 429 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 2: doing and download Sleeper now to play their new over undergame. 430 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 2: Have fun with your friends, make some money. Make sure 431 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 2: to use promo code action and sleep will match your 432 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:18,160 Speaker 2: deposit up to one hundred dollars. Again, download Sleeper, then 433 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 2: use promo Code Action when you deposit. 434 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. See Sleepers Terms of Use for details. 435 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 2: Okay, back to the show. Okay, let's talk about our 436 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,439 Speaker 2: favorite prop bets. We actually have a fight that we 437 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 2: have altering or differing props on, which I think is 438 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,679 Speaker 2: cool because this would have been potentially our fight at 439 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 2: night had we not wanted to talk about Chandler and Ferguson, 440 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 2: Randy Rudboy Brown Versus Chaos, Williams Kass and Absolute Knockout artists. 441 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:45,880 Speaker 2: Tell me why you think he's getting knockout over Randy 442 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 2: Brown tomorrow night. 443 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you said it best. He's a total 444 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 4: knockout artist. 445 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 5: All of his UFC wins have been knockouts, accepting on Semmelsberger, 446 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 5: and we've kind of seen Semilsberger look pretty indestructible. He's 447 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 5: taking some big shots and just walk through them. So 448 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 5: I'm not going to hold that one against Chaos is 449 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 5: nearly three times the UFC average, and Brown is a longer, 450 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 5: taller fighter, but Chaos has crazy reach for his height. 451 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 5: He only is actually an inch shorter in terms of 452 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 5: reach than Rude Boy, So I don't see how he 453 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 5: has a hard time getting inside on him. You know, 454 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 5: he can cover that distance pretty quick, super explosive, super athletic. 455 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 5: So if he's gonna win this one, I think it's 456 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 5: a knockout. And you can get that at plus one 457 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 5: ninety instead of laying like minus what one fifteen or 458 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 5: minus one twenty whatever his money line spots are. I 459 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 5: don't see him winning minutes or winning rounds, especially with 460 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 5: the grappling disadvantage he probably has. So if you're gonna 461 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 5: better on Chaos and you think he's gonna win it. 462 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 5: You might as well get the plus money on the 463 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,120 Speaker 5: knockout instead of betting his money line. 464 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think he made all the points for 465 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 2: me in terms of Randy Brown winning a decision here, 466 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 2: I expect him to be the minute winner. I think 467 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 2: he has the grappling upside. I'd actually be most concerned 468 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 2: that he ends up submitting Chaos if this fight hits 469 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 2: the mat, Randy Brown by decision plus three sixty at FANDE, 470 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 2: I think that's a terrific price. I projected this closer 471 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 2: to plus two seventy five, so I think it's a 472 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 2: fairly binary fight. Chaos by knockout, Randy Brown by decision. 473 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 2: I could see Brown submitting them, but I like the 474 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 2: number on that prop. His decision prop for me. My 475 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 2: other favorite props on this card. We talked about the 476 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 2: Joe los On fight. Billy made all the points about 477 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 2: Donald Soerroni being shot, Joel Elson coming off a long layoff. 478 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 2: Bit concerned about that, but I actually think that helps 479 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 2: his durability. If anything, we don't know how he's going 480 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 2: to come back skills wise in his late thirties. That said, 481 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 2: Serni is very vulnerable early in these fights. Low's on 482 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 2: round one plus seven to twenty. It was as high 483 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 2: as ten to one yesterday at FANDUL. I think it 484 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 2: was even fourteen to one earlier in the day. Lows 485 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 2: on round one absolutely will be a bet for me. 486 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 2: In addition to his inside the distance odds at around 487 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 2: plus three hundred, I think I got plus three thirty 488 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 2: potentially either way plus three hundred plus two seventy five, 489 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 2: that's all fine. I projected it at plus two seventy five, 490 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 2: about a tenth of a unit on that round one prop, 491 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 2: a quarter of a unit on the inside the distance prop. 492 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 2: I think that's the better way to play lows on. 493 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,479 Speaker 2: But I also bet his money line around plus one 494 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 2: sixty small in order to cover those props too. Those 495 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 2: are our favorite props for Saturday night. Let's talk some 496 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 2: DFS angles, Billy. I know you're gonna talk about the 497 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 2: Seronim Loizon fight here as well, because we do see 498 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 2: so much volatility and the potential for a finish. I'm 499 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 2: sure the main event will be on your DFS cards 500 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 2: as well. What are the fights you're looking at targeting? 501 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 2: Who are you building lineups around? And I got to 502 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,880 Speaker 2: ask because you always use both fighters from the main 503 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 2: event in your cash lineups, considering we could see an 504 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 2: early finishes that dissuade you, especially considering we have another 505 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 2: twenty five minute fight right below that. 506 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, these cards with multiple five round fights are really 507 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 5: fun and interesting for dfs from like a game theory standpoint, 508 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 5: because you pretty much always use both fighters in a 509 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 5: five round fight. But if you do that in both 510 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 5: five round fights this week, you're guaranteeing yourself two losses, 511 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 5: and even in cash that can be tricky. But you know, 512 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,879 Speaker 5: we saw we just saw just last week, Rob lost 513 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 5: a twenty five minute fight but put up like the 514 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,199 Speaker 5: third or fourth highest score on the slate. So I 515 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 5: think I'm probably gonna use just all four of those 516 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 5: title fighters in there, just because you know, if there 517 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 5: is an early stoppage in the main event, I honestly 518 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 5: think Gaichi has probably the better odds of getting a 519 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 5: real quick stoppage, and he's coming in it so cheap 520 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 5: that I'm fine with that. But yeah, outside of that, 521 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 5: the two fights that I'm looking at, and it scares 522 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 5: me because they're both really high variance fights. Here are 523 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 5: the osp showgun who will fight and Serroni los On. 524 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 5: Those are the two fights outside of the main event 525 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 5: with the longest hode to stop. You know, both feature 526 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 5: very old fighters on both sides of it, guys that 527 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 5: probably don't have the durability they're going to and both guys, 528 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 5: you're both fights are probably gonna end in a finish 529 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 5: and probably pretty violently. So I'm just mixing and matching 530 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 5: across those fights. I don't have a really strong take. 531 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 5: You know, I'm betting los On as the underdog, But 532 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 5: would it shock me if Serronie knocks him out with 533 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 5: the head kick thirty seconds in? Of course not so 534 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 5: if you're multi entering tournament lineups. I'm just mixing and 535 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 5: matching around those fights. And then I also do really 536 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:43,639 Speaker 5: like Michael Chandler. 537 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 4: We talked about. We're both betting him to win early. 538 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 5: You know, if he gets a first round win or 539 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 5: you know, even especially a first minute win, he's going 540 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 5: to put up a big score. 541 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 4: So that's why I'm looking on the high end. 542 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 5: And then I'm going to preempt you on this because 543 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 5: I know you're going to point out some of these 544 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,959 Speaker 5: female fights that are likely to go longer. We're going 545 00:22:58,000 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 5: to talk about her in best bets, But I really 546 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 5: like Melissa Gotto. She's a slight underdog that fight is 547 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 5: not likely to end inside the distance, so she's a 548 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 5: really good safe cash game play, and I think she 549 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 5: has all the finishing upside in her about. 550 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 4: So I like her for tournaments as well. If you 551 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 4: need to save some salary, I. 552 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 2: Like Melissa Gatto too. I bet her to win in 553 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 2: inside the distance. I bet her money line. Tell me 554 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 2: why Melissa Gatto is your best bet for Saturday against 555 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 2: Tracy Cortez. 556 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 5: It loops in with the DFS stuff, but I just 557 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 5: think she has all the finishing upside in her about. 558 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 4: If it goes fifteen minutes, she's got a ton. 559 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 5: Of opportunities to finish Tracy Cortes. Gotto has really good kicks. 560 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 5: We saw her break someone's arm on a check kick. 561 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 5: You know, that's even one that she blocked. And then 562 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 5: she's finished both of her UFC appearances by stoppage. I 563 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 5: don't know really why she's such an underdog here. She's undefeated, 564 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,400 Speaker 5: she has some good even pre UFC wins. She submitted 565 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,719 Speaker 5: Carol Josa before she came into the UFC, and I 566 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 5: just haven't been super impressed with Tracy Cortez's wins. You 567 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 5: know they've been decisions, they haven't been even especially dominant decisions, 568 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 5: with a split in the last one. So I think 569 00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 5: this fight should be about to pick them or if 570 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 5: anything Gotto favored, you're seeing her about one thirty. 571 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 4: That's an easy pick for me. 572 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, Cortes the better wrestler, but Gotto booked the better 573 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 2: striker and the better grappler in my opinion, much more 574 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 2: finishing upside. Definitely love her at a plus number, really 575 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 2: really good guard. I think if Cortes tries to lay 576 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 2: in that guard, she's gonna end up getting finished. Maybe 577 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 2: she takes the back, maybe she's able to body triangle 578 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 2: and hold Gotto for extended stretches, but I think Goda 579 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,640 Speaker 2: is going to be too strong for her, and when 580 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 2: this is on the feet, I think Cortes is going 581 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:27,479 Speaker 2: to be in a lot of trouble. 582 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 3: So I'm on Gotto as well. 583 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:30,880 Speaker 2: I know I talked about Journey Newsome in the best 584 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 2: underdog bets section. It's Gotto and Asparza for me is 585 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 2: my favorite underdogs on this card, and I already gave 586 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 2: you guys my best bet. 587 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 3: But I'm gonna reiterate it. 588 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 2: Justin Gatgee Charles olivera under two and a half rounds 589 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 2: at minus one forty five. I also played the under 590 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 2: one and a half smaller. I played the under three 591 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 2: and a half as well, but I think that under 592 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 2: two and a half is the sweet spot at around 593 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 2: minus one forty five. I like it up to about 594 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 2: minus one sixty. I have a very difficult time seeing 595 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 2: this fight go for extended stretches. I think Charles either 596 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 2: breaks Justin eventually or Justin finished Charles pretty early and violently. 597 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 2: That'll do it for us. Thank you for tuning into 598 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast UFC two seventy four betting preview 599 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 2: for Billy Ward. I'm Sean Zarrillo, Best of Welcome Saturday 600 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 2: Night