WEBVTT - Week 18 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 149) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.800 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:19.160 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Bros. Podcast or 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.560 Week eighteen of the NFL season, brought to you by 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:26.360 bet MGM. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, it's 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:28.760 Joe Pizza Pa. We are here to give our three 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:31.800 best bets for Week eighteen of the NFL season. Joe, 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:35.640 how does this snowy Friday morning find you? 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.720 It finds me doing this show instead of going outside 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:41.400 and shoveling, that's for sure. I was like, Dan, do 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:42.800 you want to you want to do a few more 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.839 podcasts today? Maybe stick around for a few hours, because 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:48.920 the longer we talk here, the longer I get to 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:51.360 stay inside and warm and not outside the freezing cold 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:52.160 trying to shovel snow. 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:52.960 So I'm all for this. 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:54.880 In fact, this could be a three hour podcast for 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:55.680 all I care today. 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:57.480 Do you not have a snowblower? Joe? 0:00:57.800 --> 0:00:58.560 I do here? 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:00.120 Okay, all right, you asked. 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.280 Yeah, it's week eighteen, man, whatever. 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:05.080 So I have the longest driveway in creation, right, so 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:08.640 I should have one of those ridiculous giant sized snowblows, 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:11.479 and I don't. I have like an electric one, which 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:12.920 is annoying because it's got the cords and. 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:13.480 It works fun. 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:16.440 Yeah, but the problem is my driveway so long that 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.160 I have more extension cords. It almost looks like clerker's 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:21.960 while trying to light his Christmas tree or Christmas house. 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.000 I should say, so, yeah, it's it's a weird situation. 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:26.760 Last year there was so much snow that I had 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:28.640 to borrow my neighbors who's got the big bad boy. 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:31.160 I think it'll be okay, I'm gonna wait it out. 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:33.000 Let the sun kind of take care of some stuff. 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.320 But overall, yes, I do. And it's of course called 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:38.080 a snow joe because a right. 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.920 So, I think many people have driveway envy for us 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.040 because our driveway is not particularly long, unlike a lot 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:47.640 of driveways in my neighborhood. And when we moved here, 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.840 my father in law, who's an incredibly handy individual. I'm 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:54.720 not handy, bought us a snowblower, and bought us a 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:58.240 snowblower that is basically like, if it snows four feet, 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:00.880 this will cut right through it. So's it's my favorite 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:03.120 thing in the world. I love it. I have to 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.760 go snowblowing a little bit, but I'm actually looking forward 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:07.120 to it because it's like the one thing that makes me, 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:10.600 look what I've done. I've heared this entire thing zen. 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:12.480 About it right where it is like, you know, like 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:15.600 some people like to rake the sand, This snow blowing, 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:16.880 I feel like is the same thing, and you get 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:18.680 to choose which direction you're gonna blow it in. 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:19.440 It's a whole thing. 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:19.919 I like it. 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.000 I gotta say it, all right, I like it, So 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:24.720 we'll do that afterwards. All right, a couple of brief announcements. 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:26.800 First of all, this is my last podcast. Actually, this 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:29.680 is my last podcast total for if you follow us 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:32.080 on Fantasy Pros, if you follow us on Betting Pros both, 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:34.520 it's my last podcast. One last live stream for me 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:36.680 on Sunday morning, week eighteen with Matt Parout like we 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:39.320 do every single Sunday morning. But this is it my 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:42.600 last podcast. I love the company. I'm leaving for a 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:47.239 completely unrelated opportunity outside of the field of sports betting 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:50.280 and fantasy. So this is the last time you're gonna 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:52.600 hear my voice, which I know for certain of you 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:55.679 is very exciting because certain of you are desperate to 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:57.720 gear it to me and Joe is certainly one of 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:02.560 them as well. Terrible Terrible in the meantime to finish 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:04.680 stop in the playoffs and everything like that. Joe will 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:06.600 be the host of the show and they'll have on guests, 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:08.960 and Joe's much better and more popular than I am. 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:14.359 So there you go. I've enjoyed I've enjoyed it. I've 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:16.799 enjoyed doing the show very much this season. I love 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:19.959 all our listeners and I wish you the best of luck. 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:21.880 I will try to send you out here on a 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.000 high note. So we're gonna give our three best bets 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:27.600 here of the of the weekend for the NFL's week eighteen. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.440 So it's crazy and a lot of this stuff will change, 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:33.119 but let's recap last week what we did. We had 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:36.320 on our good friend Scott Bogman. Of course, he went 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:38.040 one and two again. I think that's the second time 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:40.200 Bogmin's gone one and two. He did hit on the 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.240 over forty two and a half with Seattle in Detroit, 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:45.440 but he missed on everything about the Rams Ravens game. 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:47.920 He missed on the Rams lank three and a half, 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:50.040 and he missed on over forty six and a half, 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:52.360 which I also liked. I went too and one I 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:54.040 hit on the Steelers getting three and a half from 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:56.760 the Browns, which obviously closed that like the Steelers laying 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:59.000 three or whatever, and the Titans laying three and a 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.800 half to the Dolphins. Bogman also didn't like, so screw 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:04.360 that guy. I missed though, on the Chargers and the 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.280 Broncos under forty five and a half. They came in 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:08.920 at forty seven. So I'm now one game over five 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:10.760 hundred and twenty six and twenty five on the year. 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:13.480 We will try to finish this off on a high note. 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:17.640 But Joe, for the last time, you are the guest 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:21.200 of this show, not the host of this show. Therefore, 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:24.440 I will allow you to make the first selection. Please 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:27.680 show give me your favorite bet for Week eighteen of 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:28.560 the NFL season. 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:31.880 Well, I know sometimes when we see giant numbers it 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:36.560 scares people off, but it's Week eighteen. Defenses are quitting everywhere. 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:39.520 Some teams are already quit. And I think one of 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.840 the teams that's just completely done toast. I think they're 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:44.680 not gonna see Trevor Lawrence in the second half of 0:04:44.720 --> 0:04:48.200 this football game. It's the Jacksonville Jaguars and they're going 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:51.039 against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, And I'm putting Jonathan 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:53.040 Taylor ahead of the Colts because I don't think he's 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:55.200 gonna get the two hundred and sixty six yards he needs. 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:57.600 But I think he's gonna die trying. I really do. 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.520 And I think that the more you have the to him, 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:02.719 the more that eats up clock and the more difficult 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:04.680 it is for garbage time or any these other things 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:06.760 to catch up. I just feel like we're talking about 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:08.599 a whole different class of football team, just kind of 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:10.160 like what you saw last week where the Patriots just 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:13.560 to completely embarrass them. There's no self respect thing. It's 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:14.920 not like they all go back go we got to 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.800 finish the season the highoue. No, all these guys already 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:20.840 know the new regime is coming in and this was 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:22.960 their chance to be evaluated the last couple of weeks. 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:25.240 And let me tell you, I'm sure a lot of 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:27.719 them are going to be jettisons when you have a 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:30.000 new staff coming in. Lawrence will be there a few 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:31.719 other key pieces, but it's gonna be a big turnover 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.359 in this organization. So for these guys, it's about just 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:39.120 getting home, not getting hurt, and I don't see a 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:42.320 situation where there isn't a blowout here for the Indianapolis Colts. 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:43.040 And then again the. 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.920 Fact you add in all the time and all the rushing. 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:48.039 I just feel like when they try to force the 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:50.240 ball to Jonathan Taylor, it's going to eat up a 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:51.520 lot of clock and I think it's gonna make it 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:55.039 a really difficult situation for the Jaguars to score points 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:57.040 because they have to be very efficient, and efficiency has 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:58.800 not been the offensive strong suits. So at the end 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:00.480 of the day, I think the fifty is actually a 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.520 safer number, and I don't think anybody in that Jacksonville 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:05.640 defense really cares at this point, and I can't blame them. 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:07.880 I mean, I wouldn't want to get hurt either, But that, 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:09.800 to me, I think is actually something that I would 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:12.120 lock in there. I feel confident about it despite the 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:13.200 fact that it's a fifteen. 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:16.560 Yeah, fifteen is a high number, Joe, So a couple 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:19.440 of things. Obviously, the consensus line is fifteen. There's fifteen 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:21.400 and a half's out there at bet MGM. You, as 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:24.040 we were talking about before we get on, are fandueled 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.120 in Jersey? Is that your only book by. 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:27.640 The way, No, you got it one I like the 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:28.880 most because I like the one you do. 0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:34.640 That's also they give you better lines like I'm I'm 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.719 at DraftKings. That's all we have here in New Hampshire. 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:40.400 The lines are always tougher. Man, It's always like a 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.839 little off from where I feel like the is in 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:44.839 the wrong direction in my opinion, So you can actually 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:46.920 get this as we talked about at fourteen and a half, 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:49.320 that's like the only book I'm seeing out there at 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:52.479 fourteen and a half. You lucky bastard. But that's fine. 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:54.200 Here's the thing, Joe, and I didn't tell you this 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:58.440 before we started recording. One of my picks was actually 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:02.920 going to be the Jackar getting the points. And I'm 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:04.640 not going to make that one of my official picks, 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:08.000 mainly because if you are giving me an off route 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:11.400 or off ramp to not take the Jaguars and back, 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:13.160 then I'm going to take it. And this is my 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:15.960 off ramp. So I appreciate that. Here's my worry with it, though, Joe, 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:19.280 same situations last year, and the Jags were equally futured 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:21.360 last year, right. I think it was Mike Lennon as 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.360 the quarterback going in, they were terrible. It was the 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:25.559 last game of the season. The Colts wound up winning 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:28.520 by fourteen, but only on like a last minute thing 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:30.480 did they get it up from one score to two score. 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:32.800 There's this whole thing, Joe, right where you've got a 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.080 team that's terrible and a team that gets blown out, 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:37.640 especially playing against the team that's playing for something. Right, 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:39.680 You've got all these situations right now, you've got one 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:43.080 team playing for something, but those situations, Joe number one. 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:46.320 I think the lines are always a little inflated because 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:48.840 they know that people casual betters are going to look 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.840 at it and say, well, how are the I mean, 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:54.200 the Colts have to win to get into the playoffs, 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.360 and the Jaguars think, like, of course they'll go. So 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:59.840 I think the lines are generally a little inflated. And second, historically, 0:07:59.920 --> 0:08:02.400 like those teams that are limited, they play hard, and 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:06.360 last week the Jaguars totally embarrassed, completely agree. I actually 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:08.760 think that that bodes a little bit better for them 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:10.480 in this game because I think when you look historically, 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.200 teams that get absolutely drounced and lose by like twenty 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:16.040 five points, they usually are pretty good against the spread. 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:17.720 The following week. They also had a lot of COVID 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.400 issues last week. This strikes me as a game Joe 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:22.120 with the Colts, where the Colts do this every time. 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:24.600 They always struggle with Jacksonville for whatever reason, but where 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:26.760 the Colts are gonna probably jump out to like a 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:30.040 big lead, and then because they're the Colts, they're not 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.080 gonna keep their foot on the gas and the Jags 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:33.280 are gonna have a back yard cover here. 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:35.880 I'm not totally I think there's a lot of validity 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:38.600 to what you're saying. But if you watched last week, 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:42.199 you saw how New England just manhandled them at the line, 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:43.920 and then you saw a few weeks ago how the 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.520 Colts man handled New England in the trenches. 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:48.600 What I like the most about the Colts is. 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:51.839 They went up front, and that's something that I find 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:56.400 that demoralizing. You know, Yeah, when you guys got like 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:58.800 Nelson and guys like that who just absolutely get that 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.360 push and things like that, once you're into that third quarter, 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.600 it's just like, look, do I want to do this anymore? 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:05.720 And I think that's where I think eventually it's going 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.240 to I think that real football in the trench of 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:10.600 stuff is going to wear on the Jaguars in this game, 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:12.439 kind of like the way they were on the Patriots 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.240 side of that game too, So to me, I think 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.200 that's the one thing that I will throw out there. 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:19.240 But you make a lot of great arguments, and I 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:21.560 told you there's gonna be something wacky here. I kept 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:22.920 telling you I think it's going to be the Jets 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:25.120 this week, which I know would make you very happy 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:25.800 to end. 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:27.360 Are you going to take the Jets as one of 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:27.800 your picks. 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:29.120 I don't know if I'm going to take the Jets 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:31.360 as well, but I certainly wanted to. I mean, I 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:32.920 talked about a couple of days ago. I felt like 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:34.680 the line was a little too big and the Jets 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:35.200 are really. 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:38.400 Chiming right now. Is Elijah More gonna come back? If so, 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:39.199 then maybe. 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:41.640 I do like, yeah, so what we'll do, by the ways, 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:43.280 after all we do all our picks, we'll very quickly 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.120 run through the remaining spreads. We talked about it earlier 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:46.719 in the week. We have a little more information now 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.760 obviously that we do, so all right, that's fair. And 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.240 the one thing I'll say, Joe also is like I 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.400 think the Jags are locked into either the one or 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:57.040 the two pick. And this does not strike me as 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:58.920 a year where it's like we have to make sure 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:01.439 we tank to get the umber one pick necessarily. Here 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:03.920 they've got Lawrence. And I think that even with teams 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.960 like this, the individual players, they're all being evaluated, they 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:09.000 all need jobs next year, and so how they do 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:12.840 sort of will motivate them to play at their very best. Nevertheless, 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:15.960 I am thankful that you took the Cults so that 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:18.440 I can have an excuse to not take the Jaguars. 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:20.000 So that is not going to be official thing. Now 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:21.439 here's a game, Joe, that I know we're on the 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:23.920 same side of, and I know you have a little 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:25.400 bit of a different way you want to go about it, 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:27.920 which I like it. I am rarely gonna jump on 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.200 the money line. I'm gonna instead take the spread and 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.000 I'm going to take the forty nine ers getting four 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:35.079 and a half from the Rams for you. This is 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:37.800 one time where Fandel screws me out of a half point. Here, Joe, 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:39.480 it's only four for you, but it's four and a 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:41.400 half everywhere. I don't know why Fandel has to go 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:44.280 out on a limb and be cool, Joe. This is 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.800 just this is the Niners against you know, the Rams. 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.120 Like we know how the story ends, right, we know 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:53.000 how it ends over the last several seasons. We know 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:56.680 what Kyle Shanahan does against the Rams. This is just 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:58.600 sort of how it works in that division. They have 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:02.240 their number straight against the Niners. They dominated them earlier 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:05.400 this year. Matt Stafford, Joe, and I forget if you 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:07.439 were the one who mentioned this on one of our podcasts. 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:09.320 He's not playing very well of late. 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.480 It was your right, sluggish and flat in a lot 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:14.320 of games, and then they end up kind of getting 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:17.840 it together. But you can't keep doing that and think 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.880 you're going to be a playoff team that matters. 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:21.160 At the end of the day. 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:24.439 Yeah, he's battling through some injuries. I'm sure. I think 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:28.160 he has six interceptions over the last three games. All right, Joe, 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:31.480 here's here's a good stet I found Matthew Stafford in 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:35.920 his career. How often does he cover when he plays 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:39.800 a winning team, just not not wins, forget about if 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:42.200 he wins the game. How often does he cover the 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.319 spread when a Matt Stafford led team plays against the 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:49.760 team with a winning record. The time forty of the 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:53.560 time because he played a fantastic guess twenty eight percent 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:57.000 of the time, twenty eight He does not cover against 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:58.640 winning teams. It's terrible. 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.200 A tough one though, he because I mean it's he's 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:01.840 a quarterback. 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.920 But there's also a five Lions. 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:07.319 The team led by It's still a spread man. The 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:09.319 spread takes into account that he's playing on the Lions. 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:12.240 It's a Matthew Stafford the team. The forty nine ers 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.719 fans are going to travel here against the Rams. They 0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:16.520 need it more. The Rams need it, as we talked 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.040 about last week, like they need to either win or 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.600 have Arizona lose to be able to take that division. 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:23.920 So they need to win, but they don't absolutely need 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:26.000 to win. The forty nine Ers need to either win 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.040 or they need the Saints to lose to Atlanta to 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:30.280 get into the playoffs. They're ready to go. I don't 0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:32.280 know if it's going to be Jimmy g or Trey Lance, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.960 but I don't think it matters. I think Lance played 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:38.840 well enough. You know, last week, forty nine Ers secondary 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.480 is bad, but that Niners defense still playing pretty well. 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:44.400 I don't know whether or not Emmanuel Moseley is gonna 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:45.959 be able to come back. They designated him to return. 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:49.200 If so, it's a boon. But either way, ma'am, it's 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:52.160 just what happens with this game, right, the Rams and 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:54.920 the Niners. You back the Niners and you Backyle Shanahana 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.199 as a dog. I love it four and a half. 0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:58.679 I'll take it, yeah, And. 0:12:58.679 --> 0:12:59.880 Of course I want to take it a step for 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:03.480 because safe is never good enough for me. And I 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:06.280 just want the forty nine ers outright. I mean, you're 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:09.640 getting plus one seventy two. You're getting you know, plus 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:13.439 money across the board here on the bad boy here, 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.160 and I don't see why not. I mean, do we 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:17.640 need to be beat over the head with this. 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.560 When it comes to this team? I mean, this would 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:21.320 be six straight wins. 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.160 And I know you say, well, eventually it's got even out, 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:24.000 does it? 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.360 Does it? Is this a team that just owns them? 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.520 And you mentioned the key thing which I touched on 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.160 last time we were together, which is there's no home 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:31.559 field advantage for the press. 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:32.480 It does not exist. 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.560 The LA crowd is the LA crowd anyway, and then 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:37.760 you're gonna get the bougie forty nine er crowd coming 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:39.880 down for this game, and you know there's a lot 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:41.880 of them in that area, and you know they're gonna. 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:43.760 Travel for this game too, So. 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:46.720 It's gonna be like a almost fifty to fifty kind 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:48.120 of feel in that stadium. 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:50.840 If not, I'm telling you, man, it's gonna be more 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:52.680 Niners than it's gonna feel like a Niner. 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:55.640 And because the Niners need this game, and because I 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:57.240 do think it's gonna be Trey Lance, I actually think 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.400 Trey Lance is more equipped to win this game currently 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:01.839 in the situation they're in. And the last thing I 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:03.800 heard at Garroppolo was it feels my my thumb is 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:08.960 tearing off. That doesn't sound very good. I mean, I 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.440 can't I understand why he's trying to, because. 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:13.640 Sure that's it for him here. 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.920 Yeah, Desroyd, it's coming to an end. But if to me, 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:18.880 if you're going to be aggressive on this game that 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:22.040 is such a good plus number, that is really hard. 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:23.760 I mean, it's almost two to one money on a 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.320 team that's basically stuck it to the Rams five times 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.680 in a row. I think it's worth investing in. I 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:29.080 really do. 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.480 What did you think of Lance last week, Joe in 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:34.239 terms of just how he looked. 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.320 Better as the game went on. Yeah, I mean that. 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:38.880 That can happen much better than the first half. 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:40.760 This is this is the hard part is you know 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.120 when you are coming in here as a rookie quarterback, 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:45.680 you know, it's it's a very difficult situation to come 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.000 in mid season where everybody's been playing and everybody's in 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:50.520 the rhythm. I think it takes a lot and then 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.120 just like as he plays, it got better. I think 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:55.480 had he been playing the whole year, we might have 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.720 a whole different story here. Garoppolo has been safe. Garoppolo 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:00.760 has been able to get the job done. Garoppolo still 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.880 makes mistakes that you shouldn't make this many years into 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:06.080 the professional football league. I'm sorry, you just shouldn't make 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:07.960 them at this point. He also doesn't throw the deep ball, 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.160 so it limits the offense. He does not throw a 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.760 good deep ball. He never has, didn't really in college either. 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.400 So I think right now, you know, Lance kind of 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:17.080 gives them a little bit of energy too. I think 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:20.400 a different vibe and the Fortnitars offensive line is okay. 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:22.000 And I think his. 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.000 Escapability, the escapability of Trey Lance is a good thing 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:29.400 because it extends plays. It creates that momentum thing also 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:31.880 where when you extend a play, the guy you know, 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:33.560 breaks free of a sack or breaks out of the 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:36.360 pocket and runs for another fifteen yards or something like that. 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.760 That kind of stuff just crushes defenses. 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:40.400 When you have a guy on third and long and 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:44.120 a guy runs for fifteen that's tough. Or he extends 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.640 a play and then finds an open guy. Those kind 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:50.120 of momentum swings in December January are everything in the NFL, 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.080 so to me, or just football in general, so to 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:54.080 me that I think that's something that Lance can bring 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:55.920 that Garoppolo is kind of limited in. 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:59.800 Yeah, I think you've got it right. And certainly in 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.640 the beginning of that game first half, I was a 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:04.560 little worried about Lance what we were seeing from him. 0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:07.320 But he really looked so much more comfortable in the 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:10.120 second half of that game, And I think that's kudos 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:12.720 to both him and the coaching staff for baking basically 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.960 making adjustments. All right, Joe, very good. Basically on the 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:18.160 same side, you are more bold than I am, which 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.000 is not a surprise given who we are. Why don't 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:22.920 you go ahead and give your second pick? 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:24.600 I mean, what a shock. 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:29.880 Dan Harris going out conservative boy talk about staying on brand. 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.680 I we shall have shirts for Dan at the Fantasy 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:39.560 Pro shop that say give it more talk, or let's see. 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:41.120 Him think about it, let's think about this. 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:44.080 I need some more time, all right. The next one 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:46.560 for me is the Buccaneers on the minus eight side. 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.520 I want the buccaneer side of this game. I think 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.240