Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Speaker 2: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Bros. Podcast or
Speaker 2: Week eighteen of the NFL season, brought to you by
Speaker 2: bet MGM. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, it's
Speaker 2: Joe Pizza Pa. We are here to give our three
Speaker 2: best bets for Week eighteen of the NFL season. Joe,
Speaker 2: how does this snowy Friday morning find you?
Speaker 1: It finds me doing this show instead of going outside
Speaker 1: and shoveling, that's for sure. I was like, Dan, do
Speaker 1: you want to you want to do a few more
Speaker 1: podcasts today? Maybe stick around for a few hours, because
Speaker 1: the longer we talk here, the longer I get to
Speaker 1: stay inside and warm and not outside the freezing cold
Speaker 1: trying to shovel snow.
Speaker 3: So I'm all for this.
Speaker 1: In fact, this could be a three hour podcast for
Speaker 1: all I care today.
Speaker 2: Do you not have a snowblower? Joe?
Speaker 1: I do here?
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, you asked.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's week eighteen, man, whatever.
Speaker 1: So I have the longest driveway in creation, right, so
Speaker 1: I should have one of those ridiculous giant sized snowblows,
Speaker 1: and I don't. I have like an electric one, which
Speaker 1: is annoying because it's got the cords and.
Speaker 3: It works fun.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but the problem is my driveway so long that
Speaker 1: I have more extension cords. It almost looks like clerker's
Speaker 1: while trying to light his Christmas tree or Christmas house.
Speaker 1: I should say, so, yeah, it's it's a weird situation.
Speaker 1: Last year there was so much snow that I had
Speaker 1: to borrow my neighbors who's got the big bad boy.
Speaker 1: I think it'll be okay, I'm gonna wait it out.
Speaker 1: Let the sun kind of take care of some stuff.
Speaker 1: But overall, yes, I do. And it's of course called
Speaker 1: a snow joe because a right.
Speaker 2: So, I think many people have driveway envy for us
Speaker 2: because our driveway is not particularly long, unlike a lot
Speaker 2: of driveways in my neighborhood. And when we moved here,
Speaker 2: my father in law, who's an incredibly handy individual. I'm
Speaker 2: not handy, bought us a snowblower, and bought us a
Speaker 2: snowblower that is basically like, if it snows four feet,
Speaker 2: this will cut right through it. So's it's my favorite
Speaker 2: thing in the world. I love it. I have to
Speaker 2: go snowblowing a little bit, but I'm actually looking forward
Speaker 2: to it because it's like the one thing that makes me,
Speaker 2: look what I've done. I've heared this entire thing zen.
Speaker 1: About it right where it is like, you know, like
Speaker 1: some people like to rake the sand, This snow blowing,
Speaker 1: I feel like is the same thing, and you get
Speaker 1: to choose which direction you're gonna blow it in.
Speaker 3: It's a whole thing.
Speaker 1: I like it.
Speaker 2: I gotta say it, all right, I like it, So
Speaker 2: we'll do that afterwards. All right, a couple of brief announcements.
Speaker 2: First of all, this is my last podcast. Actually, this
Speaker 2: is my last podcast total for if you follow us
Speaker 2: on Fantasy Pros, if you follow us on Betting Pros both,
Speaker 2: it's my last podcast. One last live stream for me
Speaker 2: on Sunday morning, week eighteen with Matt Parout like we
Speaker 2: do every single Sunday morning. But this is it my
Speaker 2: last podcast. I love the company. I'm leaving for a
Speaker 2: completely unrelated opportunity outside of the field of sports betting
Speaker 2: and fantasy. So this is the last time you're gonna
Speaker 2: hear my voice, which I know for certain of you
Speaker 2: is very exciting because certain of you are desperate to
Speaker 2: gear it to me and Joe is certainly one of
Speaker 2: them as well. Terrible Terrible in the meantime to finish
Speaker 2: stop in the playoffs and everything like that. Joe will
Speaker 2: be the host of the show and they'll have on guests,
Speaker 2: and Joe's much better and more popular than I am.
Speaker 2: So there you go. I've enjoyed I've enjoyed it. I've
Speaker 2: enjoyed doing the show very much this season. I love
Speaker 2: all our listeners and I wish you the best of luck.
Speaker 2: I will try to send you out here on a
Speaker 2: high note. So we're gonna give our three best bets
Speaker 2: here of the of the weekend for the NFL's week eighteen.
Speaker 2: So it's crazy and a lot of this stuff will change,
Speaker 2: but let's recap last week what we did. We had
Speaker 2: on our good friend Scott Bogman. Of course, he went
Speaker 2: one and two again. I think that's the second time
Speaker 2: Bogmin's gone one and two. He did hit on the
Speaker 2: over forty two and a half with Seattle in Detroit,
Speaker 2: but he missed on everything about the Rams Ravens game.
Speaker 2: He missed on the Rams lank three and a half,
Speaker 2: and he missed on over forty six and a half,
Speaker 2: which I also liked. I went too and one I
Speaker 2: hit on the Steelers getting three and a half from
Speaker 2: the Browns, which obviously closed that like the Steelers laying
Speaker 2: three or whatever, and the Titans laying three and a
Speaker 2: half to the Dolphins. Bogman also didn't like, so screw
Speaker 2: that guy. I missed though, on the Chargers and the
Speaker 2: Broncos under forty five and a half. They came in
Speaker 2: at forty seven. So I'm now one game over five
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty six and twenty five on the year.
Speaker 2: We will try to finish this off on a high note.
Speaker 2: But Joe, for the last time, you are the guest
Speaker 2: of this show, not the host of this show. Therefore,
Speaker 2: I will allow you to make the first selection. Please
Speaker 2: show give me your favorite bet for Week eighteen of
Speaker 2: the NFL season.
Speaker 1: Well, I know sometimes when we see giant numbers it
Speaker 1: scares people off, but it's Week eighteen. Defenses are quitting everywhere.
Speaker 1: Some teams are already quit. And I think one of
Speaker 1: the teams that's just completely done toast. I think they're
Speaker 1: not gonna see Trevor Lawrence in the second half of
Speaker 1: this football game. It's the Jacksonville Jaguars and they're going
Speaker 1: against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, And I'm putting Jonathan
Speaker 1: Taylor ahead of the Colts because I don't think he's
Speaker 1: gonna get the two hundred and sixty six yards he needs.
Speaker 3: But I think he's gonna die trying. I really do.
Speaker 1: And I think that the more you have the to him,
Speaker 1: the more that eats up clock and the more difficult
Speaker 1: it is for garbage time or any these other things
Speaker 1: to catch up. I just feel like we're talking about
Speaker 1: a whole different class of football team, just kind of
Speaker 1: like what you saw last week where the Patriots just
Speaker 1: to completely embarrass them. There's no self respect thing. It's
Speaker 1: not like they all go back go we got to
Speaker 1: finish the season the highoue. No, all these guys already
Speaker 1: know the new regime is coming in and this was
Speaker 1: their chance to be evaluated the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: And let me tell you, I'm sure a lot of
Speaker 1: them are going to be jettisons when you have a
Speaker 1: new staff coming in. Lawrence will be there a few
Speaker 1: other key pieces, but it's gonna be a big turnover
Speaker 1: in this organization. So for these guys, it's about just
Speaker 1: getting home, not getting hurt, and I don't see a
Speaker 1: situation where there isn't a blowout here for the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 1: And then again the.
Speaker 3: Fact you add in all the time and all the rushing.
Speaker 1: I just feel like when they try to force the
Speaker 1: ball to Jonathan Taylor, it's going to eat up a
Speaker 1: lot of clock and I think it's gonna make it
Speaker 1: a really difficult situation for the Jaguars to score points
Speaker 1: because they have to be very efficient, and efficiency has
Speaker 1: not been the offensive strong suits. So at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, I think the fifty is actually a
Speaker 1: safer number, and I don't think anybody in that Jacksonville
Speaker 1: defense really cares at this point, and I can't blame them.
Speaker 1: I mean, I wouldn't want to get hurt either, But that,
Speaker 1: to me, I think is actually something that I would
Speaker 1: lock in there. I feel confident about it despite the
Speaker 1: fact that it's a fifteen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, fifteen is a high number, Joe, So a couple
Speaker 2: of things. Obviously, the consensus line is fifteen. There's fifteen
Speaker 2: and a half's out there at bet MGM. You, as
Speaker 2: we were talking about before we get on, are fandueled
Speaker 2: in Jersey? Is that your only book by.
Speaker 1: The way, No, you got it one I like the
Speaker 1: most because I like the one you do.
Speaker 2: That's also they give you better lines like I'm I'm
Speaker 2: at DraftKings. That's all we have here in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: The lines are always tougher. Man, It's always like a
Speaker 2: little off from where I feel like the is in
Speaker 2: the wrong direction in my opinion, So you can actually
Speaker 2: get this as we talked about at fourteen and a half,
Speaker 2: that's like the only book I'm seeing out there at
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half. You lucky bastard. But that's fine.
Speaker 2: Here's the thing, Joe, and I didn't tell you this
Speaker 2: before we started recording. One of my picks was actually
Speaker 2: going to be the Jackar getting the points. And I'm
Speaker 2: not going to make that one of my official picks,
Speaker 2: mainly because if you are giving me an off route
Speaker 2: or off ramp to not take the Jaguars and back,
Speaker 2: then I'm going to take it. And this is my
Speaker 2: off ramp. So I appreciate that. Here's my worry with it, though, Joe,
Speaker 2: same situations last year, and the Jags were equally futured
Speaker 2: last year, right. I think it was Mike Lennon as
Speaker 2: the quarterback going in, they were terrible. It was the
Speaker 2: last game of the season. The Colts wound up winning
Speaker 2: by fourteen, but only on like a last minute thing
Speaker 2: did they get it up from one score to two score.
Speaker 2: There's this whole thing, Joe, right where you've got a
Speaker 2: team that's terrible and a team that gets blown out,
Speaker 2: especially playing against the team that's playing for something. Right,
Speaker 2: You've got all these situations right now, you've got one
Speaker 2: team playing for something, but those situations, Joe number one.
Speaker 2: I think the lines are always a little inflated because
Speaker 2: they know that people casual betters are going to look
Speaker 2: at it and say, well, how are the I mean,
Speaker 2: the Colts have to win to get into the playoffs,
Speaker 2: and the Jaguars think, like, of course they'll go. So
Speaker 2: I think the lines are generally a little inflated. And second, historically,
Speaker 2: like those teams that are limited, they play hard, and
Speaker 2: last week the Jaguars totally embarrassed, completely agree. I actually
Speaker 2: think that that bodes a little bit better for them
Speaker 2: in this game because I think when you look historically,
Speaker 2: teams that get absolutely drounced and lose by like twenty
Speaker 2: five points, they usually are pretty good against the spread.
Speaker 2: The following week. They also had a lot of COVID
Speaker 2: issues last week. This strikes me as a game Joe
Speaker 2: with the Colts, where the Colts do this every time.
Speaker 2: They always struggle with Jacksonville for whatever reason, but where
Speaker 2: the Colts are gonna probably jump out to like a
Speaker 2: big lead, and then because they're the Colts, they're not
Speaker 2: gonna keep their foot on the gas and the Jags
Speaker 2: are gonna have a back yard cover here.
Speaker 1: I'm not totally I think there's a lot of validity
Speaker 1: to what you're saying. But if you watched last week,
Speaker 1: you saw how New England just manhandled them at the line,
Speaker 1: and then you saw a few weeks ago how the
Speaker 1: Colts man handled New England in the trenches.
Speaker 3: What I like the most about the Colts is.
Speaker 1: They went up front, and that's something that I find
Speaker 1: that demoralizing. You know, Yeah, when you guys got like
Speaker 1: Nelson and guys like that who just absolutely get that
Speaker 1: push and things like that, once you're into that third quarter,
Speaker 1: it's just like, look, do I want to do this anymore?
Speaker 1: And I think that's where I think eventually it's going
Speaker 1: to I think that real football in the trench of
Speaker 1: stuff is going to wear on the Jaguars in this game,
Speaker 1: kind of like the way they were on the Patriots
Speaker 1: side of that game too, So to me, I think
Speaker 1: that's the one thing that I will throw out there.
Speaker 1: But you make a lot of great arguments, and I
Speaker 1: told you there's gonna be something wacky here. I kept
Speaker 1: telling you I think it's going to be the Jets
Speaker 1: this week, which I know would make you very happy
Speaker 1: to end.
Speaker 2: Are you going to take the Jets as one of
Speaker 2: your picks.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm going to take the Jets
Speaker 1: as well, but I certainly wanted to. I mean, I
Speaker 1: talked about a couple of days ago. I felt like
Speaker 1: the line was a little too big and the Jets
Speaker 1: are really.
Speaker 3: Chiming right now. Is Elijah More gonna come back? If so,
Speaker 3: then maybe.
Speaker 2: I do like, yeah, so what we'll do, by the ways,
Speaker 2: after all we do all our picks, we'll very quickly
Speaker 2: run through the remaining spreads. We talked about it earlier
Speaker 2: in the week. We have a little more information now
Speaker 2: obviously that we do, so all right, that's fair. And
Speaker 2: the one thing I'll say, Joe also is like I
Speaker 2: think the Jags are locked into either the one or
Speaker 2: the two pick. And this does not strike me as
Speaker 2: a year where it's like we have to make sure
Speaker 2: we tank to get the umber one pick necessarily. Here
Speaker 2: they've got Lawrence. And I think that even with teams
Speaker 2: like this, the individual players, they're all being evaluated, they
Speaker 2: all need jobs next year, and so how they do
Speaker 2: sort of will motivate them to play at their very best. Nevertheless,
Speaker 2: I am thankful that you took the Cults so that
Speaker 2: I can have an excuse to not take the Jaguars.
Speaker 2: So that is not going to be official thing. Now
Speaker 2: here's a game, Joe, that I know we're on the
Speaker 2: same side of, and I know you have a little
Speaker 2: bit of a different way you want to go about it,
Speaker 2: which I like it. I am rarely gonna jump on
Speaker 2: the money line. I'm gonna instead take the spread and
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the forty nine ers getting four
Speaker 2: and a half from the Rams for you. This is
Speaker 2: one time where Fandel screws me out of a half point. Here, Joe,
Speaker 2: it's only four for you, but it's four and a
Speaker 2: half everywhere. I don't know why Fandel has to go
Speaker 2: out on a limb and be cool, Joe. This is
Speaker 2: just this is the Niners against you know, the Rams.
Speaker 2: Like we know how the story ends, right, we know
Speaker 2: how it ends over the last several seasons. We know
Speaker 2: what Kyle Shanahan does against the Rams. This is just
Speaker 2: sort of how it works in that division. They have
Speaker 2: their number straight against the Niners. They dominated them earlier
Speaker 2: this year. Matt Stafford, Joe, and I forget if you
Speaker 2: were the one who mentioned this on one of our podcasts.
Speaker 2: He's not playing very well of late.
Speaker 1: It was your right, sluggish and flat in a lot
Speaker 1: of games, and then they end up kind of getting
Speaker 1: it together. But you can't keep doing that and think
Speaker 1: you're going to be a playoff team that matters.
Speaker 3: At the end of the day.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's battling through some injuries. I'm sure. I think
Speaker 2: he has six interceptions over the last three games. All right, Joe,
Speaker 2: here's here's a good stet I found Matthew Stafford in
Speaker 2: his career. How often does he cover when he plays
Speaker 2: a winning team, just not not wins, forget about if
Speaker 2: he wins the game. How often does he cover the
Speaker 2: spread when a Matt Stafford led team plays against the
Speaker 2: team with a winning record. The time forty of the
Speaker 2: time because he played a fantastic guess twenty eight percent
Speaker 2: of the time, twenty eight He does not cover against
Speaker 2: winning teams. It's terrible.
Speaker 1: A tough one though, he because I mean it's he's
Speaker 1: a quarterback.
Speaker 3: But there's also a five Lions.
Speaker 2: The team led by It's still a spread man. The
Speaker 2: spread takes into account that he's playing on the Lions.
Speaker 2: It's a Matthew Stafford the team. The forty nine ers
Speaker 2: fans are going to travel here against the Rams. They
Speaker 2: need it more. The Rams need it, as we talked
Speaker 2: about last week, like they need to either win or
Speaker 2: have Arizona lose to be able to take that division.
Speaker 2: So they need to win, but they don't absolutely need
Speaker 2: to win. The forty nine Ers need to either win
Speaker 2: or they need the Saints to lose to Atlanta to
Speaker 2: get into the playoffs. They're ready to go. I don't
Speaker 2: know if it's going to be Jimmy g or Trey Lance,
Speaker 2: but I don't think it matters. I think Lance played
Speaker 2: well enough. You know, last week, forty nine Ers secondary
Speaker 2: is bad, but that Niners defense still playing pretty well.
Speaker 2: I don't know whether or not Emmanuel Moseley is gonna
Speaker 2: be able to come back. They designated him to return.
Speaker 2: If so, it's a boon. But either way, ma'am, it's
Speaker 2: just what happens with this game, right, the Rams and
Speaker 2: the Niners. You back the Niners and you Backyle Shanahana
Speaker 2: as a dog. I love it four and a half.
Speaker 2: I'll take it, yeah, And.
Speaker 1: Of course I want to take it a step for
Speaker 1: because safe is never good enough for me. And I
Speaker 1: just want the forty nine ers outright. I mean, you're
Speaker 1: getting plus one seventy two. You're getting you know, plus
Speaker 1: money across the board here on the bad boy here,
Speaker 1: and I don't see why not. I mean, do we
Speaker 1: need to be beat over the head with this.
Speaker 3: When it comes to this team? I mean, this would
Speaker 3: be six straight wins.
Speaker 1: And I know you say, well, eventually it's got even out,
Speaker 1: does it?
Speaker 3: Does it? Is this a team that just owns them?
Speaker 1: And you mentioned the key thing which I touched on
Speaker 1: last time we were together, which is there's no home
Speaker 1: field advantage for the press.
Speaker 3: It does not exist.
Speaker 1: The LA crowd is the LA crowd anyway, and then
Speaker 1: you're gonna get the bougie forty nine er crowd coming
Speaker 1: down for this game, and you know there's a lot
Speaker 1: of them in that area, and you know they're gonna.
Speaker 3: Travel for this game too, So.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be like a almost fifty to fifty kind
Speaker 1: of feel in that stadium.
Speaker 2: If not, I'm telling you, man, it's gonna be more
Speaker 2: Niners than it's gonna feel like a Niner.
Speaker 1: And because the Niners need this game, and because I
Speaker 1: do think it's gonna be Trey Lance, I actually think
Speaker 1: Trey Lance is more equipped to win this game currently
Speaker 1: in the situation they're in. And the last thing I
Speaker 1: heard at Garroppolo was it feels my my thumb is
Speaker 1: tearing off. That doesn't sound very good. I mean, I
Speaker 1: can't I understand why he's trying to, because.
Speaker 2: Sure that's it for him here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Desroyd, it's coming to an end. But if to me,
Speaker 1: if you're going to be aggressive on this game that
Speaker 1: is such a good plus number, that is really hard.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's almost two to one money on a
Speaker 1: team that's basically stuck it to the Rams five times
Speaker 1: in a row. I think it's worth investing in. I
Speaker 1: really do.
Speaker 2: What did you think of Lance last week, Joe in
Speaker 2: terms of just how he looked.
Speaker 3: Better as the game went on. Yeah, I mean that.
Speaker 2: That can happen much better than the first half.
Speaker 1: This is this is the hard part is you know
Speaker 1: when you are coming in here as a rookie quarterback,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a very difficult situation to come
Speaker 1: in mid season where everybody's been playing and everybody's in
Speaker 1: the rhythm. I think it takes a lot and then
Speaker 1: just like as he plays, it got better. I think
Speaker 1: had he been playing the whole year, we might have
Speaker 1: a whole different story here. Garoppolo has been safe. Garoppolo
Speaker 1: has been able to get the job done. Garoppolo still
Speaker 1: makes mistakes that you shouldn't make this many years into
Speaker 1: the professional football league. I'm sorry, you just shouldn't make
Speaker 1: them at this point. He also doesn't throw the deep ball,
Speaker 1: so it limits the offense. He does not throw a
Speaker 1: good deep ball. He never has, didn't really in college either.
Speaker 1: So I think right now, you know, Lance kind of
Speaker 1: gives them a little bit of energy too. I think
Speaker 1: a different vibe and the Fortnitars offensive line is okay.
Speaker 3: And I think his.
Speaker 1: Escapability, the escapability of Trey Lance is a good thing
Speaker 1: because it extends plays. It creates that momentum thing also
Speaker 1: where when you extend a play, the guy you know,
Speaker 1: breaks free of a sack or breaks out of the
Speaker 1: pocket and runs for another fifteen yards or something like that.
Speaker 3: That kind of stuff just crushes defenses.
Speaker 1: When you have a guy on third and long and
Speaker 1: a guy runs for fifteen that's tough. Or he extends
Speaker 1: a play and then finds an open guy. Those kind
Speaker 1: of momentum swings in December January are everything in the NFL,
Speaker 1: so to me, or just football in general, so to
Speaker 1: me that I think that's something that Lance can bring
Speaker 1: that Garoppolo is kind of limited in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you've got it right. And certainly in
Speaker 2: the beginning of that game first half, I was a
Speaker 2: little worried about Lance what we were seeing from him.
Speaker 2: But he really looked so much more comfortable in the
Speaker 2: second half of that game, And I think that's kudos
Speaker 2: to both him and the coaching staff for baking basically
Speaker 2: making adjustments. All right, Joe, very good. Basically on the
Speaker 2: same side, you are more bold than I am, which
Speaker 2: is not a surprise given who we are. Why don't
Speaker 2: you go ahead and give your second pick?
Speaker 3: I mean, what a shock.
Speaker 1: Dan Harris going out conservative boy talk about staying on brand.
Speaker 1: I we shall have shirts for Dan at the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Pro shop that say give it more talk, or let's see.
Speaker 2: Him think about it, let's think about this.
Speaker 1: I need some more time, all right. The next one
Speaker 1: for me is the Buccaneers on the minus eight side.
Speaker 1: I want the buccaneer side of this game. I think
Speaker 1: Carolina is falling apart at the seams. I mean, the
Speaker 1: quarterback play has been atrocious. I think Matt Rule has
Speaker 1: lost control.
Speaker 3: And I can't think.
Speaker 1: And I don't know if this is the podcast I
Speaker 1: talked about with you or somebody else. I don't remember
Speaker 1: a time going into a season where I felt more
Speaker 1: confident about a head coach at his position, and then
Speaker 1: towards the end of the year the complete polar opposite.
Speaker 1: I thought, Matt Rule, Joe Brady, they're building something here,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe this darnold thing is gonna work. And
Speaker 1: then September it kind of worked a little bit, and
Speaker 1: now I feel like Rule's gonna be out. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna be back in college at one of these
Speaker 1: major programs. I think they're gonna completely, you know, revamp things.
Speaker 1: And I can't believe it, And I think this game
Speaker 1: is very important for a few reasons. Number One, you've
Speaker 1: got some money on the line here for Rob Gronkowski.
Speaker 1: And don't you think Tom Brady knows that the five
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars has nothing to sneeze at if he
Speaker 1: catches seven more balls, So they're.
Speaker 3: Gonna push the ball a little bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Defensively, I think you know when you've watched these teams
Speaker 1: play Tom Brady, the Carolina Panthers still very good, young defense,
Speaker 1: but still young, and Tom Brady tends to pick.
Speaker 3: Apart those young defenses.
Speaker 1: He did all last year to them too, where he
Speaker 1: kind of embarrassed them in spots because he just does
Speaker 1: those little oaki dogs, those little pump fakes, those little things. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it looks like he does that stuff. And because they're
Speaker 1: young and athletic and aggressive, it leads to mistakes. And
Speaker 1: I just think Tom Brady, despite all the Antonio Brown stuff,
Speaker 1: despite all the injuries with Godwin, despite Evans hamstering all
Speaker 1: these things, He's gonna find a way to win this game.
Speaker 1: I think this is kind of important because I think
Speaker 1: the Bucks want to have a little momentum going into
Speaker 1: the playoffs and Brady's not one to come out of
Speaker 1: games and rest, So if they're up by a lot
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter, he'll come out. But Brady typically
Speaker 1: does not like to come out of games. Brady typically
Speaker 1: is somebody that's going to push and play hard. And
Speaker 1: I just don't see how Carolina keeps pace here with
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. That's the other thing too, And is there
Speaker 1: an opportunity for a defensive score? And I think the
Speaker 1: answer is yes, in which case, whenever you see a
Speaker 1: number that's greater than six or that you're struggling with,
Speaker 1: if you think that there's opportunity for that, it's.
Speaker 3: That defensive turnover, that defensive score.
Speaker 1: And I think you're gonna see a couple turnovers in
Speaker 1: this game for the Carolina Panthers. So to me, I actually
Speaker 1: like the Buccaneers despite the big number on.
Speaker 3: This one too.
Speaker 2: You know, I want you to explain something to me, Joe.
Speaker 2: How is it that two weeks ago they go into
Speaker 2: Carolina and they win thirty two to six. Now at home,
Speaker 2: this spread is eight, like and it's it by the way,
Speaker 2: it was seven for a while, like it's moved up
Speaker 2: a point. Are we here's my question, are we missing something.
Speaker 2: Are they You're.
Speaker 3: Missing wide receivers, you're missing weapons.
Speaker 2: They were out last skin though, Joe that they got
Speaker 2: hurt in the Saints skin. This is after that. After that.
Speaker 2: They're actually in better shape right now because they have
Speaker 2: Mike Evans back. He's playing. So that's the thing I
Speaker 2: I would have agreed to detail if Godwin and Evan's fine,
Speaker 2: the running backs Okay, fine, now.
Speaker 1: You don't even have pulling guys.
Speaker 2: And but here's here's the thing. When when books set
Speaker 2: the line, Okay, we have to be honest. They have
Speaker 2: more information than you and I do.
Speaker 3: Why they build giant hotels.
Speaker 2: My friend, you are correct, which is why I'm saying,
Speaker 2: is it possible because everything you said is correct. Brady
Speaker 2: doesn't like sit. They arians doesn't pull them. They played
Speaker 2: their last game last year when they didn't really need to,
Speaker 2: uh like they were and they need to by the
Speaker 2: way here because now you're looking at a thing where
Speaker 2: you've got a gimpy Mike Evans. You've got no God
Speaker 2: when you've got no Brown like Brady needs time in
Speaker 2: game action to develop a rapport with Grayson. Right with
Speaker 2: all these guys, everything suggests they're not gonna sit like,
Speaker 2: and Vegas is begging you, the books are begging you,
Speaker 2: saying good take the bucks. They seem to just be
Speaker 2: taking the stand here and that is the only thing
Speaker 2: that makes me nervous about it, because other than that,
Speaker 2: oh God, give me this. And what's worse, Joe is
Speaker 2: at eight how many teasers? Is this going to be
Speaker 2: a part of where people are gonna tease it down
Speaker 2: to too? I'm already like, where's my other teaser piece?
Speaker 2: This is clearly my teaser piece here you can get
Speaker 2: under a field goal. So to me, Joe, that's my
Speaker 2: I think the pig is correct. I absolutely feel flumm
Speaker 2: with it. My only worry is like, do they somehow
Speaker 2: know something that we don't, because otherwise this line makes
Speaker 2: absolutely no sense to me, you know what I mean? Like,
Speaker 2: that's my only hesitation with it. Are we missing anything?
Speaker 2: But everything you said seems correct, right, I don't think.
Speaker 1: I don't think we're missing anything on this one. I
Speaker 1: think that's just them covering themselves a little bit because
Speaker 1: of all the chaos that's also gone with.
Speaker 3: The Buccaneers in the last seven days. Yeah, all right,
Speaker 3: a lot of chaos.
Speaker 1: I mean, sometimes teams get distracted now, yeah, that's led
Speaker 1: by Tom Brady and Bruce Arians. I don't think it's
Speaker 1: going to correct. And I think that's also to the
Speaker 1: point why it's really important that this team plays. It
Speaker 1: gets on the field and goes past that distraction. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, and I think that's very important for them.
Speaker 1: So look, normally, you're right. Look, I completely agree with
Speaker 1: you in the sense that they are smarter than us,
Speaker 1: which is why they build those casitos and hotels. However,
Speaker 1: in this instance, if I'm going to look for something
Speaker 1: to invest in, and you look at this board, do
Speaker 1: I want to invest in Bruce Arians and Tom Brady
Speaker 1: and the defending Super Bowl champions against Carolina.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do.
Speaker 1: If I'm going to go down account, I'm gonna invest
Speaker 1: in those guys as opposed to some other things because
Speaker 1: I think there's some other lines that are inviting you
Speaker 1: that I am think of traps and I'm staying away
Speaker 1: from this one. I don't believe because I'm investing in
Speaker 1: the guys at the top, and the guys at the
Speaker 1: top at the end of the day are the ones
Speaker 1: who usually get this done.
Speaker 2: It just makes no sense to me, Joe, Like, it
Speaker 2: really doesn't I'm to the point where I really I
Speaker 2: don't know what to do with it. You're over crazy, Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's what. Oh, I'll bet it. Don't I'll walk into
Speaker 2: a trap. I'm okay with it, so I'll buy with that,
Speaker 2: all right. So that's a good one, Joe, I'm with you. Look, man,
Speaker 2: I don't have I have a bunch of crazy stats
Speaker 2: for this. This is me thinking that the Raiders are
Speaker 2: just a vastly overrated team and that the Chargers are
Speaker 2: a much better team. And I'm taking the Chargers on
Speaker 2: the road in Vegas to beat the Raiders by three.
Speaker 2: So I'm taking them, laying the three points. Now, Matt
Speaker 2: Parralt has already taken the Raiders getting the three points.
Speaker 2: I think it might be one of our picks of
Speaker 2: the day over at Betting Pro. I don't really care.
Speaker 2: I just think the Raiders are not a good team.
Speaker 2: They've played three games in overtime, Joe, Like, they they
Speaker 2: win these games, close games that they should lose, that
Speaker 2: they somehow managed to do. They won three games in
Speaker 2: a row to put themselves in this position. Their turnover
Speaker 2: margin in their three victories negative seven. Like, this is
Speaker 2: not a team that deserves to be in the playoffs
Speaker 2: or is good enough and to be as fair as possible.
Speaker 2: They've dealt with an enormous amount of turmoil this entire year,
Speaker 2: between the Gruden and the Rugs thing. They've had no
Speaker 2: Darren Waller. He may return here, which is certainly something
Speaker 2: that affects it because he does open up the offense.
Speaker 2: But the Chargers pass defense, which is really good when
Speaker 2: they're healthy, is finally healthy. The Raiders pass defense, which
Speaker 2: at one point was good, has not been good. The
Speaker 2: one real Achilles heel in this game is the Raiders
Speaker 2: as the Chargers rush defense. But number one, they're getting
Speaker 2: healthier in the rush defense, and you can see how
Speaker 2: they are able to sort of play when that happens
Speaker 2: at number two. Look, I like Josh Jacobs from a
Speaker 2: fantasy perspective, From a prop perspective, Josh Jacobs was very
Speaker 2: good to me this year because I was always a
Speaker 2: little more bullish on him than the market was. But
Speaker 2: he's not a guy who go there and it's going
Speaker 2: to basically dominate a game anymore. Like that's just not
Speaker 2: who he is to me. The Chargers are going to
Speaker 2: win this game. If it's a field goal, it's not moving.
Speaker 2: By the way, Joe, this is a field goal game.
Speaker 2: That's it. I mean, you want something to worry about.
Speaker 2: It's the fact that they could only need a tie
Speaker 2: to win, and they could both lie down if everything
Speaker 2: goes right. I think the Chargers win this game in Vegas,
Speaker 2: and I think they win by more than a field goal.
Speaker 2: So I'm taking the Chargers. I'm interested to know how
Speaker 2: you feel about it, Joe, because again, I do know
Speaker 2: people who are on the other side of this, and
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I understand why.
Speaker 1: I'm on your side of this one, okay, which again
Speaker 1: I hate saying those.
Speaker 3: Words, but I am.
Speaker 1: I'm on your side of this one, and I think
Speaker 1: this game goes a long way if indeed the Chargers
Speaker 1: win this football game, of shedding that label of the
Speaker 1: same old Chargers who have a lot of talent but
Speaker 1: always collapse in big spots. I think the difference is Herbert.
Speaker 1: I think that's the difference here. And Herbert tends to
Speaker 1: show up in these big games too, which I like.
Speaker 1: I think that's the mark of a great quarterback. And
Speaker 1: you know, even in my early rankings so far on
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros and we turned over the year, like the
Speaker 1: next day the season's over. Well, we turn over the
Speaker 1: we're starting to look ahead. Herbert to me is an
Speaker 1: elite quarterback.
Speaker 3: He really is.
Speaker 1: And I think Staley is a really good football coach.
Speaker 1: I want to give the Raiders credit, and I want
Speaker 1: to give the coaching staff credit for keeping this thing together,
Speaker 1: just keeping it together as long as they have. That
Speaker 1: they're ring into week eighteen is stunning, and I think
Speaker 1: there's something about that that they're home, and you know,
Speaker 1: I think the energy there and I get all of that.
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, I'm looking at
Speaker 1: the defense, and I think you're right. I think the
Speaker 1: defensive side of the football here on the charter side,
Speaker 1: is just much better. I also got the quarterback, and
Speaker 1: those are the two things to me, when I'm making investments,
Speaker 1: whether it be fantasy or whether it be wagering, defense
Speaker 1: and quarterback play are the things you should be looking
Speaker 1: at investing in. And I think the Chargers have that
Speaker 1: more so than the Raiders, and that's why I think
Speaker 1: it's a smarter investment.
Speaker 3: Now, if they lose this game, we'll go back.
Speaker 1: To that same narrative and it's going to haunt them
Speaker 1: all off season of Why couldn't you get your business
Speaker 1: done in that big spot when it mattered. You're the
Speaker 1: same charges we see every year. I think it's a
Speaker 1: little different with Staley. But this game, I think is
Speaker 1: at the end of the day going to either move
Speaker 1: the needle forward or revert us right back to the
Speaker 1: old thinking.
Speaker 2: And I understand the I mean, look that the loss
Speaker 2: of the Texans a couple of weeks ago was just horrible, right,
Speaker 2: Like that's something we're like, come on, man, But you
Speaker 2: look at the point score Joe over the last five
Speaker 2: games against Cincinnati, pretty solid defense forty one against the
Speaker 2: Giants thirty seven. They lost that game to Kansas City
Speaker 2: and scored twenty eight points, and they had like three
Speaker 2: times where they were down within like the three yard
Speaker 2: line and they couldn't push it across. They obviously could
Speaker 2: have scored even more. Against Houston they scored twenty nine.
Speaker 2: Against Denver they scored thirty four. They're gonna put up points.
Speaker 2: I do not see the Raiders putting up a twenty
Speaker 2: eight spot in this game, Like, I just don't. And
Speaker 2: I do think that the Chargers will against that Raiders
Speaker 2: defense that just has not been nearly as good of late.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm taking the Chargers. I feel okay about it.
Speaker 2: I think they make it.
Speaker 1: The one other thing too, when Abram got hurt, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think that craps the secondary significantly. And this is
Speaker 1: and this is why when you play IDP right and
Speaker 1: you are focused on all these kind of little things,
Speaker 1: you see these things and you go, well, how that
Speaker 1: gonn impact?
Speaker 3: Because Abram was a terrifying guy back there.
Speaker 1: That guy hits hard on the few guys that still
Speaker 1: hits people back there, he hits him legally, he hits
Speaker 1: and you take that guy out of that secondary, you
Speaker 1: take away the fear factor for the wide receivers. And
Speaker 1: that's a bad concoction potentially for this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again just looking at the at the Raiders. Uh,
Speaker 2: you know, last several games, like they beat Dallas on Thanksgiving,
Speaker 2: which is kind of a weird game that happened. They
Speaker 2: lost to Washington seventeen fifteen, They got absolutely obliterated by
Speaker 2: the Chiefs forty eight nine. They barely beat a Cleveland
Speaker 2: team that was just completely decimated at that point and
Speaker 2: was playing all backups and everything like that. Sixteen fourteen,
Speaker 2: they barely got away with that game. They beat Denver
Speaker 2: seventeen to thirteen when you had Drew Lock out there
Speaker 2: and then they beat the Colts, who again, fine, the
Speaker 2: Colts also have a way of just sort of hanging
Speaker 2: it stuff like that. This is not a good team man,
Speaker 2: And kudos again, Joe, you said it. Kudos to that
Speaker 2: coaching staff, Kudos to that whole team were holding it
Speaker 2: together where they could have fallen apart forever ago. They're
Speaker 2: not winning this game, I don't think, and I think
Speaker 2: they lose a bit more film. Last pick, Joe, what
Speaker 2: do you got?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 1: I talked about defense as Quintin, and we're talking about
Speaker 1: trends and things like that. I think one of the
Speaker 1: things I like the most is, you know, from a
Speaker 1: DFS standpoint, we were on this game yesterday on the
Speaker 1: podcast over on Fantasy Pro Side and just loving this
Speaker 1: forty eight number with Arizona and Seattle. I mean, Seattle
Speaker 1: another team. When you lose Jamal Adams at the secondary,
Speaker 1: that's a big loss. And you've been able to throw
Speaker 1: the ball aton on Seattle. So it helps Arizona because
Speaker 1: Arizona from an offensive standpoint, has been lackluster without their
Speaker 1: key pieces, without DeAndre Hopkins and Connor has been, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of limping to the finish line here. We'll see
Speaker 1: if he plays or not this week, but it's great.
Speaker 3: To get Edmonds back.
Speaker 1: I just think at the end of the day, historically,
Speaker 1: when you look at these games too, and you look
Speaker 1: at the way they played each other, these games tend
Speaker 1: to be high scoring between these two and the Arizona
Speaker 1: defense as as good as they were in the beginning
Speaker 1: of the year, it's kind of flipped now. I don't
Speaker 1: know if it's flip because the offense has been lackluster
Speaker 1: and put them in bad spots too much or kept
Speaker 1: them on the field too much. Fatigue fact injury though,
Speaker 1: injuries too, but everybody's had injuries. They've really fallen off
Speaker 1: in terms of points, in terms of when you're looking
Speaker 1: at them, bigg giving up big plays and things like that.
Speaker 1: So there's every opportunity here where the Seattle Seahawks, with
Speaker 1: a very capable quarterback could want to say, hey, we'll
Speaker 1: got to stick it to you guys at the end
Speaker 1: in division game all that, I think that is certainly
Speaker 1: a very viable narrative, and forty eight is just a
Speaker 1: very low number for these two teams.
Speaker 3: Anyway, let alone a week eighteen.
Speaker 1: So, as far as I'm concerned, when you got two
Speaker 1: stellar quarterbacks here, these are two QB one guys, and
Speaker 1: there's incentives on the line for certain guys. Aj Green's
Speaker 1: got incentives personally in this game. Yeah, I think you know,
Speaker 1: seventy five yards is attainable for him. He's hit that
Speaker 1: a couple of times. It's a It's not an impossible number,
Speaker 1: although maybe a challenging one at times. I think you
Speaker 1: look at that. I think you look at the way
Speaker 1: where shot Penny's played. Wilson certainly looks healthier than he
Speaker 1: did six seven weeks ago. So, as far as I'm concerned,
Speaker 1: the forty eight is too low. If I was setting this,
Speaker 1: it will be a fifty one to begin with. Wow,
Speaker 1: that it's still in the forty eight's, I think, to
Speaker 1: me personally, just far too low for this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's forty seven and a half at BETMGM. So
Speaker 2: there you go. I am in agreement with you, Joe.
Speaker 2: I hadn't really looked at this game very much, but
Speaker 2: I think your points are right, and I think the
Speaker 2: good part about it too, is like, because we are
Speaker 2: in week eighteen, I'm sure, the Seahawks want to win
Speaker 2: this game, obviously. The Cardinals need to win this game
Speaker 2: if they have any shot of the division. I think
Speaker 2: that you're going to see less of the let's run,
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll, let's run the ball, let's punt it on
Speaker 2: fourth and one, and they'll probably take more chances and
Speaker 2: let Russ erit out a little bit more and try
Speaker 2: to see what they can build on going into next year.
Speaker 2: So I do think there are going to be points
Speaker 2: in this game. And I like this call. I really
Speaker 2: hadn't even thought about it before you brought it up,
Speaker 2: so I'm in agreement with you. I like it. I'm
Speaker 2: mad at myself for not being on it earlier, but yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm with you. So you know, Joe, there are times
Speaker 2: when there are some really low over unders. This week's
Speaker 2: some really low ones. You know what's fun when you
Speaker 2: see a really really low over under and you go
Speaker 2: under it. And that is what I'm doing with the
Speaker 2: Bengals at the Browns at thirty eight thirty eight. I'm
Speaker 2: still going on it. There are a couple of reasons.
Speaker 2: Number One, the weather actually is going to right now,
Speaker 2: at least as we record this on Friday, the weather
Speaker 2: forecast is bad in Cleveland. It's like the wins, right.
Speaker 2: The wind Joe, for me, is really the one thing
Speaker 2: that I think affects sort of right off of those.
Speaker 1: Two games last year where nobody could move the football.
Speaker 2: I mean those two.
Speaker 1: Games were what like ten to seven field.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm not kidding, like I honestly think like
Speaker 2: this is a game that ends at like twenty points,
Speaker 2: like it really, I mean I wouldn't bet like an
Speaker 2: overhudder there. But at thirty eight it's going to be
Speaker 2: really windy. You're gonna have the Bengals not having anybody
Speaker 2: in there because you know Burrow's not going to play.
Speaker 2: You know, Mixing's already out. They don't want anybody to
Speaker 2: get hurt in this game. There's no reason for them
Speaker 2: to risk anything. And the Browns obviously no Mayfield. Look,
Speaker 2: no teams don't tank, Joe. Okay, teams don't tank. But
Speaker 2: the difference right now, because all those teams are bunched up,
Speaker 2: the difference between getting the number four, see the finishing
Speaker 2: fourth in that division versus finishing third, it's actually going
Speaker 2: to be pretty big in terms of schedule next year,
Speaker 2: right Instead of getting the Dolphins. You're gonna get the
Speaker 2: Jets right instead of get you know, that sort of
Speaker 2: type of thing. I think they play the I think
Speaker 2: with the eighteen, I think they go against fourth place
Speaker 2: in the division, in the NFC East. I believe if
Speaker 2: memory serves, which means you get the Giants, like there's
Speaker 2: there's a good reason to come and last in that division.
Speaker 2: And I just think I'm not saying that they're gonna
Speaker 2: outright like Tank. I just think that they're not that
Speaker 2: motivated to basically put everything out, you know, with Chub
Speaker 2: Joe again, what did we if Chubb either got banged
Speaker 2: up last week or whether or not. They're just like,
Speaker 2: who cares if we beat Pittsburgh. At this point, we're
Speaker 2: not gonna take any chances. We're gonna rest them, maybe
Speaker 2: put in our backups just to see like they're not
Speaker 2: going to risk anybody within reason. They're not going to
Speaker 2: do anything crazy. You've got backups, you've got bad weather,
Speaker 2: You've got no incentive for either team to give a
Speaker 2: crap about this game. Thirty eight points with the weather.
Speaker 2: The weather is a big deal for me. If it
Speaker 2: clears up, I'm gonna I may be regretting this but
Speaker 2: if it's I think you're just gonna see, you know,
Speaker 2: samaj p Ryan and you know Dearanis Johnson run the
Speaker 2: ball forty times in this game and get the heck
Speaker 2: out of there. Low total, Joey, I'm still going under
Speaker 2: thirty eight points? Is that crazy? Is it crazy to
Speaker 2: go under?
Speaker 1: Especially the win factor because you know, I've been to
Speaker 1: that stadium and it's I mean, yeah, oh it is.
Speaker 1: The wind factor is is huge off that river at times,
Speaker 1: and you saw it last year in those games were
Speaker 1: just completely destroyed the productivity.
Speaker 3: You could not basically throw the football.
Speaker 1: And it's always funny to because people hyperventilate about rain
Speaker 1: and stuff. I'm like, well, like some guys can throw
Speaker 1: the ball in the rain. It's a fine, like this
Speaker 1: torrential downpour. And even then I've seen games where it's
Speaker 1: it's odd because you can end up breaking a small
Speaker 1: pass for a very long run after, you know, because
Speaker 1: somebody slips and falls down and all that stuff. So
Speaker 1: it's the wind factor that to me always always impacts
Speaker 1: totals far more than the rain fact. People the rain
Speaker 1: and they freak out, but they should be looking at
Speaker 1: the wind more often, especially in places like Cleveland where
Speaker 1: you've seen it play out in games before. So if
Speaker 1: it is up to those gusts where it was similar
Speaker 1: to those games last season and there were two of them.
Speaker 1: If memory serves last year with Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 3: That it was just it was almost like comical. You're like, well,
Speaker 3: they're just gonna run the football million.
Speaker 2: Time, right, I mean think about the Bills and the
Speaker 2: h and the Pats right this year, they maybe right
Speaker 2: that game right, And I don't think it's supposed to
Speaker 2: be that bad, but I do like when I checked
Speaker 2: last night, Jobe was sustained twenty five sustained twenty five
Speaker 2: mile hour wins. That's field goes by the way out
Speaker 2: the window right like to another thing, extra point like
Speaker 2: it just everything to me screams to the under. So
Speaker 2: I don't mind. I want to talk about the spread
Speaker 2: when we get to that game. So I'll recap all
Speaker 2: of our six best bets of the weekend afterwards. I
Speaker 2: do Joe very quickly want to hyper speed run through
Speaker 2: the remaining spread. Is that quol with you? Yes, sir,
Speaker 2: Let's go Saturday. The Chiefs are laying eleven in Denver
Speaker 2: to the Broncos. Obviously, the Chiefs still have a chance
Speaker 2: at the number one seed if the Texans beat the Titans,
Speaker 2: which they did earlier in the year, so they're motivated
Speaker 2: to win. I think it's still gonna be Drew Lock
Speaker 2: in this game, although I haven't I haven't seen anything.
Speaker 2: Although it's Bridgewater on IR, I don't know. I think
Speaker 2: it's gonna be Drew Lock regardless of what you got,
Speaker 2: Chiefs slaying eleven.
Speaker 3: I'll take the Chiefs side of this one.
Speaker 2: Do you think they're gonna win big?
Speaker 1: I think after last week, I think they need to
Speaker 1: to be honest with you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you want to get the you want
Speaker 2: to end.
Speaker 1: Up going into this season for them because they they
Speaker 1: had it up until last week, but now they I
Speaker 1: mean it's kind of mentally important. I think it just
Speaker 1: like they're just a team that far out classes the
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos right now in terms of quarterback played. And
Speaker 1: once again, you can invest in quarterback and Andy Reid
Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes, or you can invest in Drew Lock.
Speaker 3: And Vic Fangio.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna write yeah. On the other side, Bridgewater is
Speaker 2: out for the season, by the way. My poll and Locke,
Speaker 2: by the way is banged up as well, so already
Speaker 2: bad to worse. Yeah, it's eleven. I'm probably I'm probably
Speaker 2: just gonna player prop this one. I'm not gonna I'm
Speaker 2: not gonna get mountain the spread. Cowboys are laying four
Speaker 2: and a half to the Eagles. Joe, when we looked
Speaker 2: at a Monday, I think it was seven, maybe we
Speaker 2: like we were like, WHOA what is this? Cowboys are
Speaker 2: going to play to win reportedly, and again McCarthy has
Speaker 2: a history of resting players and that not working out
Speaker 2: for him very well going into the playoffs. Don't know
Speaker 2: exactly what the Eagles are going to do now, other
Speaker 2: than the fact that the entire team is on the
Speaker 2: COVID list four and a half.
Speaker 1: Joe, what do you think I'm still tempted to on
Speaker 1: the Eagles side?
Speaker 3: Is hurt isn't on there? As long as Hurts isn't
Speaker 3: on there?
Speaker 2: You No, Hurts is not. But even if you were,
Speaker 2: Joe going to kill you Like, no, he's not.
Speaker 1: Look, you know, my my faith in the Cowboys is tricky,
Speaker 1: and Michael Parsons is out for this game to correct
Speaker 1: Also Grave that's another piece where if you're taking somebody
Speaker 1: out of this game. You're taking the best defensive player
Speaker 1: right now in that conference arguably off.
Speaker 3: Yes, that's a big one too. So I'm still on
Speaker 3: the eagle side.
Speaker 1: But remember when we were here on Tuesday, we were
Speaker 1: talking about six and a half or something.
Speaker 2: I was like, it was it was seven in a
Speaker 2: lot of books.
Speaker 1: Let's get the eagle side now before he did, it's
Speaker 1: a shrink and look, ye there is a four and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 3: I'm not surprised at all.
Speaker 2: Yeah, rare time. We made the right call on that
Speaker 2: one on Monday. So yeah, I agree, that's exactly right.
Speaker 2: And if you know, I wouldn't mind making the Eagles
Speaker 2: part of a teaser piece. Get him up to over
Speaker 2: ten ten and a half. Steelers are visiting the Ravens.
Speaker 2: They're plus five. I'm still not expecting Lamar Jackson to
Speaker 2: play here. He's not practicing. I mean, for either one
Speaker 2: of these teams, they both have something to play for
Speaker 2: because they're not mathematically eliminated, but for either one to
Speaker 2: make the playoffs requires a confluence of events that is
Speaker 2: just almost impossible to imagine at this point. So you
Speaker 2: want to go with Mike Tomlin on the road as
Speaker 2: an underdog in games that are historically tight show or
Speaker 2: you think the Ravens are going to finish on the
Speaker 2: high note.
Speaker 1: You know, this is a game I'm out on Tuesday
Speaker 1: and I'm out on Friday. Just all right, because these
Speaker 1: are this is the rivalry game. They seems hate each
Speaker 1: other in way, there's a respect factor. They don't care
Speaker 1: about playoffs. It was like, look, you know, it's been
Speaker 1: a disappointing season. Do we want to end it on
Speaker 1: a high note. I think both teams do so. This
Speaker 1: is not like phoning it in. These teams are gonna
Speaker 1: go at it and it's gonna be a close game,
Speaker 1: too close, if anything. I'll take the Steelers on the
Speaker 1: five side of that one, because I think that's actually
Speaker 1: kind of a high number.
Speaker 2: I think if you had to go on one way,
Speaker 2: I would go with the Steelers just because it's my
Speaker 2: top five and that's pretty now to be for you,
Speaker 2: it's four and a half. For me, it's actually four.
Speaker 2: It's five and a lot of other books.
Speaker 1: Well, on the consensus betting pros it's plus five.
Speaker 2: That's right exactly. I don't I don't really want it.
Speaker 2: If I have to go one, well, I'll go to
Speaker 2: the Steelers. Just because I do think that you get
Speaker 2: Mike Tom on the road. And again these games, like
Speaker 2: if these games fall outside of a three point window,
Speaker 2: it's weird because they've been playing like that basically historically,
Speaker 2: Titans visiting the Texans, Joe, they are laying ten. That
Speaker 2: sounds eerily familiar. Titans Texans. Titans laying ten didn't end
Speaker 2: well for the Titans last time. Obviously, the Titans are
Speaker 2: playing for the number one seed. I guess no, I
Speaker 2: don't even know. It's not possible. Actually, they can't wrap
Speaker 2: it up before them, Titans laying ten? What do you think?
Speaker 3: This is the trap one?
Speaker 1: To me? This is the one that terrifies me. Remember before,
Speaker 1: there's a trap one on here. That's a big number
Speaker 1: that I think is a huge trap. But like that's
Speaker 1: the one. I mean theoretically, yeah, the Titan should absolutely
Speaker 1: handle their business.
Speaker 3: The Titans may get Derrick Henry back, so we're still not.
Speaker 2: I don't think for this game, right, I mean it's I.
Speaker 1: Don't think it's realistic. I don't think they should push him,
Speaker 1: but this.
Speaker 2: Is I think that's his ideal though, right, and they
Speaker 2: get the buye. They practice him this week, they practice
Speaker 2: him next week.
Speaker 1: Tan his game, but the ten is just not a
Speaker 1: number I'm comfortable with. With the Titans and Davis Mills
Speaker 1: has played DCS down the stretch.
Speaker 3: Yes, I'm out so.
Speaker 2: Much better than I expected. I'll be honest, like in
Speaker 2: his rookie season. Uh yeah, I'm staying away from it.
Speaker 2: I want to for the Titans, but I it's too
Speaker 2: many points for me to back them. For sure. Bengals
Speaker 2: are visiting the Browns. We just talked about, Joe. The
Speaker 2: Bengals are getting six, and I'm gonna be frank with you, Joe.
Speaker 2: I almost made this one of my picks, the Bengals
Speaker 2: getting six, because I realize that they're playing all back up.
Speaker 2: But again, I don't think the Browns are very motivated
Speaker 2: to win this game, and you're gonna have crazy win,
Speaker 2: which is like an equalizer and everything like that. So
Speaker 2: I would just take the team getting almost a touchdown
Speaker 2: in this one if I have to go one way.
Speaker 2: But it's also a game that I had absolutely no
Speaker 2: interest in being in on other than rooting against scoring overall.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 1: Well? I think I have more faith in case Keenom
Speaker 1: than Brandon Allen for sure, and that's the hard part,
Speaker 1: and that's what makes it so tricky as you're dealing
Speaker 1: with not one, but two backup quarterbacks. So I don't know, Man,
Speaker 1: this is another game that I just I think you're right.
Speaker 1: I think if you're gonnapproach this game, it's the under
Speaker 1: from the lot of the factors we talked about, and
Speaker 1: you stay away from the line.
Speaker 2: Personally, Vikings playing five and a half at home against
Speaker 2: the bear sounds like it's gonna be fields returning for
Speaker 2: this game. So not sure what that does for you,
Speaker 2: Joe when you think about the team. But what do
Speaker 2: you think five and a half kind of a dead
Speaker 2: number just sitting there?
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you take the Bear side? I mean, what
Speaker 1: about the Vikings hasn't meant that they collapse and make
Speaker 1: games close and have a lead and blow it every time?
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the thing that can And I almost
Speaker 1: made this one of my picks because I was looking
Speaker 1: at I was like, have I learned nothing from the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one football season about the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the miniesulta Vikings should win this game handily, But do
Speaker 1: they ever win a game handily? They're supposed to do No,
Speaker 1: do they end up in these games where they're winning
Speaker 1: by less than three?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 1: Do they have a touchdown in every single game and
Speaker 1: then somehow lose that lead? Pretty much up until week seventeen, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was the case. So I don't know. At a
Speaker 1: certain point when do we You don't have to get
Speaker 1: beat over the head with it. I think if I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be in on this game, it's gonna be on
Speaker 1: the Bear side, so I would lean towards the Bear side.
Speaker 1: I st don't like betting it because I'm betting a quarterback,
Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback on the road, and two head coaches
Speaker 1: that are basically I mean, I think both are probably
Speaker 1: done at the end of the year.
Speaker 3: I think it matters what happens in this game.
Speaker 1: But this one's gonna be fun, I think from a
Speaker 1: fantasy perspective, because I think everything's just gonna hang out
Speaker 1: for this one.
Speaker 3: But it's just gonna be All bets are off.
Speaker 1: But I don't know. Man to me, the bear side
Speaker 1: jumps out because of everything we've seen out of the
Speaker 1: Bengals stessh, I mean the Vikings. I don't think the
Speaker 1: Vikings are gonna lose, but I don't think that they're
Speaker 1: gonna win by running away either.
Speaker 3: When has that been the Vikings? HEMO this year?
Speaker 2: That's true, they do not run away with any victories.
Speaker 2: I just want nothing to do with this game at all, Like, no,
Speaker 2: I have no idea what I'm going to see. And again,
Speaker 2: a totally meaningless game though, right like this is the
Speaker 2: spot where you can see the Vikings do really well. Right,
Speaker 2: like a totally meaningless game. Nobody gives a crap about it.
Speaker 2: They'll blow them out by you know, forty points. So
Speaker 2: I just I'm staying away from it and no idea
Speaker 2: what to expect. This one's an interesting one, Joe. The
Speaker 2: Lions are getting three and a half from the Packers.
Speaker 2: This went from saying, Okay, the Packers are going to
Speaker 2: rest everybody to you know, Lafour coming out and saying
Speaker 2: we're not gonna rest. We've looked at it historically. That
Speaker 2: doesn't do people well. But you have Aaron Rodgers, who
Speaker 2: what is the point of getting a buy and not
Speaker 2: giving the guy who's basically been dealing with the toe
Speaker 2: injury forever like an extra week of rest. So three
Speaker 2: and a half points here, Joe, what do you think I.
Speaker 1: Like the Lions side of this one. The plus three off,
Speaker 1: I see it's plus four at bet MGM. It's because
Speaker 1: of how much Jordan Love. I think we're gonna see
Speaker 1: We're gonna see Aaron Rodgers of this game, because I
Speaker 1: don't think if you look historically, the comp layoff for
Speaker 1: two plus weeks.
Speaker 3: Has been a good thing. Y hasn't it just happened me?
Speaker 1: These guys come out flat, and there's a part of
Speaker 1: me they wouldn't mind seeing that necessarily. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, I think you'll see Rogers for maybe a
Speaker 1: quarter a couple series, and then it hands over to
Speaker 1: Jordan Love. And from what I've seen of Jordan Love
Speaker 1: and what I've seen of Dan Campbell getting his team
Speaker 1: fired up to play football every week. Somehow despite all
Speaker 1: of the negga, I mean, we look up right now,
Speaker 1: they're what four win team.
Speaker 2: Right thirteen and one, so they have a chance.
Speaker 1: So I was thinking they could be a four win
Speaker 1: team here, but I forgot about the tie. They're not.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up as they always do
Speaker 1: and play strong. And at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: is Jordan Love gonna make some mistakes? Yeah? And I
Speaker 1: think that's enough for me to be on the Lion's
Speaker 1: side of this one. And it just really depends on
Speaker 1: is this is not a great investable game because you
Speaker 1: don't know how long Aaron Rodgers is going to play.
Speaker 1: If he plays one series and he's out all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, that line line looks really good. You know
Speaker 1: what this is? This is a game that if you
Speaker 1: like in game betting, this is a.
Speaker 2: Game boom that's right. Ready, This is.
Speaker 1: The Roer betting line of the week, this.
Speaker 2: One Rogers is in for the first series, they score
Speaker 2: a touchdown, the in game line jumps up. Bet the
Speaker 2: line bet there. Then I think I think Rogers plays
Speaker 2: the series. I think he plays one series with the
Speaker 2: starters and then is out because if.
Speaker 1: I'd be enough to get seven, and then when he
Speaker 1: gets the seven, you turn around and go, okay, go
Speaker 1: right to the Lions in game right by this freak in.
Speaker 2: Game Yeah, but I would take it at three and
Speaker 2: a half if I had to that. That is the
Speaker 2: spot that I like it as well. Again, not one
Speaker 2: of my picks, but it is there. Joe the Washington
Speaker 2: football team seven to the Giants. What do you think, girls?
Speaker 3: Do I have to watch this game.
Speaker 2: Do you do you're contractually obligated?
Speaker 3: Horrendous? I don't.
Speaker 1: I own nothing to do with this, Like I just
Speaker 1: I love to say, yeah, it's just Washington and a
Speaker 1: romp and things like that, but I don't know if
Speaker 1: they've got the goods to really, you know, just handle anybody.
Speaker 1: And they make mistakes at the worst time. Every time
Speaker 1: high he makes a bad mistake. So I know I'm
Speaker 1: out on this game. This is another trap one to
Speaker 1: me because it should be completely that and if the
Speaker 1: Giants not only covered but won this football game, like
Speaker 1: you is that? Is that gonna shock anybody?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 2: Seven points?
Speaker 1: Ugh?
Speaker 2: Disgusting?
Speaker 1: Yeah, three and a half I'd go, okay, well look
Speaker 1: give him a shot or four?
Speaker 2: Yeah, because they pass over that touchdown. It's like they're
Speaker 2: gonna be pissed at Joe Judge. For sure, they're gonna
Speaker 2: want to win this game. But whatever, Yeah, it's too much.
Speaker 2: I can't back the Giants for sure, but I can't
Speaker 2: back anybody in this one. Pats are laying six to
Speaker 2: the Dolphins. They historically struggle in Miami. What do you
Speaker 2: think here, Joe Tom.
Speaker 1: Brady historically struggles in Miami, So I point that out
Speaker 1: when you have weather typically that's been very hot and
Speaker 1: things like that, especially in the beginning of the seasons.
Speaker 1: Those are the games that Brady had struggled in. I
Speaker 1: think there was a stat out there. I remember seeing
Speaker 1: it last year or before he went to Florida. Somebody
Speaker 1: put it out there. But it's like, do you really
Speaker 1: want to be a buccaneer, Tom, you know, because they
Speaker 1: showed you, you know, in games of eighty five degrees
Speaker 1: or more or something like that, like Tom Brady's well
Speaker 1: they had one win or something crazy like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, career.
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna say this. I think that.
Speaker 1: Last week the Dolphins got punched in the mouth a
Speaker 1: little bit and they're staggering, and I feel like the
Speaker 1: momentum right now is all on the Patriots side. I
Speaker 1: feel like them the Patriots feel good about themselves there
Speaker 1: beating up of the Jaguars.
Speaker 3: They lost the two.
Speaker 1: Competitive games that they had left on the schedule, right
Speaker 1: so they had the Colts.
Speaker 3: They lost that one.
Speaker 1: I think they got a little a little you know,
Speaker 1: kind of high falutint and then they competed with Buffalo.
Speaker 1: But really, at the end of the day, Buffalo handed
Speaker 1: it to him. So this was a good bounce back
Speaker 1: for them last week against the Jaguars where they get
Speaker 1: back on track and all that. But the Dolphins game here,
Speaker 1: this is a very tricky one. If anything, I think
Speaker 1: the Patriots win, but I think the Dolphins of the
Speaker 1: plus six is the smart way to go about this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right, Joe. I think I'm probably
Speaker 2: gonna stay away from it. I haven't had a good
Speaker 2: reado on the Pats all year at being transparent, like
Speaker 2: I just haven't. So it strikes me if that's correct.
Speaker 2: But it's probably a game I'll stay away from as
Speaker 2: I will. This one sounds like you may be in
Speaker 2: on it. Bill's playing sixteen to the Jets. J Ets,
Speaker 2: j Ets, What do you think, Joe, sixteen?
Speaker 3: It's a lot. And you know, here's what happened.
Speaker 2: I look, you get sixteen and a half at fand
Speaker 2: old body.
Speaker 3: I was looking around.
Speaker 1: I was like, all right, let me look at the
Speaker 1: game log for the Bills and how many games are
Speaker 1: they blowing out people? And there's enough blowouts for the
Speaker 1: Bills in the second half of the season where I go, no,
Speaker 1: I can't really do this. But after watching the Jets
Speaker 1: last week, I kind of feel like the Jets few like, well,
Speaker 1: we can at least kind of be competitive here, and I.
Speaker 3: Think it's a big.
Speaker 1: Boost for you when you can compete for a few
Speaker 1: quarters with the raigning champions. And I think Wilson's looking
Speaker 1: more confident if they get Elijah Moore back for this
Speaker 1: game and Barrios has played well, why can't you compete?
Speaker 1: Why can't you and garbage time get some point. There's
Speaker 1: variables here that make it very tempting, but it's said,
Speaker 1: I'm just going to stay away from it because it
Speaker 1: is the Jets at the end of the day, and
Speaker 1: Goodness knows, I just can't trust them.
Speaker 3: But I want to, Dan, I really want to.
Speaker 2: So do I. But I'm staying away well just because
Speaker 2: I think that we've seen enough where you see the
Speaker 2: Jets kind of randomly look borderline competent on offense and
Speaker 2: Wilson look okay, and then he lays the dud. I'm
Speaker 2: hoping that you see him build on last week, in
Speaker 2: which case, from a completely personal fan standpoint, that you
Speaker 2: can feel because I do think that Wilson has played
Speaker 2: better of late in recent weeks, and certainly this last game.
Speaker 2: If he does again here you can feel confident in him.
Speaker 2: For me, I'm not there yet, so I'm just gonna
Speaker 2: take a step back. Hope they play this one close.
Speaker 2: If I had to take a side, it would be
Speaker 2: the Jets. We talked about the total in this game, though,
Speaker 2: how do you see the spreadshoe with the Seahawks and
Speaker 2: the cards. It's six and a half right now across
Speaker 2: the board everywhere.
Speaker 1: Give me the Seahawks with the six and a half
Speaker 1: because the Arizona Cardinals don't put teams away, they just don't.
Speaker 2: I think that's right. I think that's right. I think
Speaker 2: that this game will be closer than sort of people expect,
Speaker 2: and I think that's why the books are kind of
Speaker 2: laying it. I think the books are begging you to
Speaker 2: basically tease the cards down, like they're saying, God, teasing
Speaker 2: down to half point, see what happens. Like, well, now,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised to Seahawks on this game. Again,
Speaker 2: Second divisional games are always tricky anyway, so who knows about.
Speaker 3: That this one?
Speaker 2: Joe, I had very mixed feelings about these Saints are
Speaker 2: visiting the Falcons. They're laying three and a half. You
Speaker 2: saw the Falcons have a big game against them. The
Speaker 2: Saints do not score points. They just don't score points. So,
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know, Joe, what do you think here?
Speaker 2: Three and a half Falcons at home?
Speaker 3: Gross? I want nothing to do with this game either.
Speaker 1: I just I don't have a beat on it, especially
Speaker 1: after the last week with the Falcons were competitive for
Speaker 1: half a football against the Bills in the snow. Who
Speaker 1: the hell saw that coming? Like, I just, I know,
Speaker 1: I'm Jostradamus. But at the same time, I mean, I
Speaker 1: was watching the Falcons there and I'm watching them in
Speaker 1: the snow, and I'm watching it was like a fifteen
Speaker 1: to twelve game. At one point, I go, what in
Speaker 1: God's name am I watching right now? How are the
Speaker 1: Falcons even in this? And then you add in the
Speaker 1: fact that Kyp has been doing with that hamstring injury,
Speaker 1: like he's that weapon they have left.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's tough too, because he's got that that.
Speaker 2: You know, milestone obviously can be that, I know, but
Speaker 2: but he's banged up, I.
Speaker 3: Know, push him for a milestone.
Speaker 2: It strikes me, Joe. As he plays, he runs a
Speaker 2: couple of routes he catches a pass and then he's like,
Speaker 2: I can't, I can't go right, Like that's that's really
Speaker 2: what it seems like. Yeah, I'm with you if I'm
Speaker 2: forced to go though one way, Joe, I'm going to
Speaker 2: take overfield goal at this point because how many points
Speaker 2: are the Saints put up, like seventeen, Maybe the Falcons
Speaker 2: can fide their way to that. Obviously, the Saints are
Speaker 2: playing for something. If they win the Niner sues, they're
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, so they're motivated, but again, I don't
Speaker 2: really think that matters necessarily. All Right, that's it. This
Speaker 2: is my final podcast. As we said, Joe, it was enjoyable.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for making my final podcast fun.
Speaker 2: Let's recap very quickly the bets. Let me see if
Speaker 2: I have it right, Joe, you correct me. If I
Speaker 2: have your bets in correct, you're taking the Colts. We'll
Speaker 2: give minus fifteen. You can get it fourteen and a half.
Speaker 2: Though the Bucks are laying eight, and the Cards and
Speaker 2: the Seahawks over forty eight. You're also sprinkling on the
Speaker 2: San Francisco money line at plus one seventy two. I'm
Speaker 2: going to be a coward and just take the points
Speaker 2: with the forty nine Ers getting four and a half
Speaker 2: from the Ram the jack No, I'm not taking the
Speaker 2: Jags actually because I know you can't. Chargers, Charger, Jaguars,
Speaker 2: you got it right. The Chargers though, laying three to
Speaker 2: the Raiders and the Bengals and the Browns and the
Speaker 2: Wind Bowl and the Backup Bowl under thirty eight points.
Speaker 2: It has been a pleasure hosting this podcast. Joe has
Speaker 2: been hosting the College Football podcast and the non NFL
Speaker 2: podcast for the whole year. He's going to take you
Speaker 2: to the finish line to the super Bowl with this podcast. Joe,
Speaker 2: it's been a pleasure. I appreciate you joining me today,
Speaker 2: and please don't screw up the NFL side of the
Speaker 2: podcast into the future. Can you do that for me?
Speaker 3: No promises, Dan, but I will try. I will try
Speaker 3: my best to keep it going.
Speaker 1: But again, thanks for having me on today, and I
Speaker 1: hope at least for you, there's nobody else that you
Speaker 1: wanted to finish your last podcast here Fantasy Pros with,
Speaker 1: because I know I wanted to be on the show with.
Speaker 3: You today, so it was fun as usual. My friend.
Speaker 3: I'll miss year.
Speaker 2: You were definitely my top eighteen of people to have
Speaker 2: on this. The first was twenty first, seventeen declined, but
Speaker 2: you were here anyway. I appreciate everybody. Good luck with
Speaker 2: your bets again Sunday Morning Betting prosy Livestream, YouTube, dot Com,
Speaker 2: Slash betting pros Matt Pearl and I bringing down, giving
Speaker 2: out some player props, all that good stuff. That will
Speaker 2: be my final public appearance on as a part of
Speaker 2: fans Rosa Betting Pro. So I'll talk to you that
Speaker 2: in the meantime, enjoy the snow, Joe, go go shovel
Speaker 2: some snow. I'm gonna go snowblowing my driveway and I'll
Speaker 2: talk to again on Tip