1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 1: See Action Network Podcast. No One, but no one is 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: offering you action. 3 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 2: It's a gambling experience of lifetime. It's by way of saying, 4 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: I understand man, Mike, I know what you want. 5 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: I know what you need is where you belong. 6 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Matt Moore, 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 3: call me the mayor Buckets. You can catch me throughout 8 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 3: the week on our NBA Daily Betting podcast and the 9 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 3: Action Network Buckets. 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 2: Great show you guys to check it out. We're gonna 11 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 2: do a little NBA look in. 12 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 3: Football is over, so now you're looking for something new 13 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 3: to bet on, and boy do I have the sport 14 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 3: for you. If you want high paced action and the 15 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 3: highest level of competition, you should go watch hockey. But 16 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 3: if you do want to find a sport that's got 17 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 3: a big edge from night to night because of rest 18 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 3: spots and opportunities and especially the props, the best props 19 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 3: in all sports, we will get some NBA for you. 20 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 3: We're gonna talk MVP futures today. We're gonna talk title futures. 21 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 3: We're gonna give you a best bet. We're gonna take 22 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 3: a look at at the props market trends that we've 23 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 3: seen this season, give you kind of an update on 24 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 3: where the NBA stands as we go into the back 25 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 3: quarter of the year and into the playoffs, and they 26 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 3: do that. I've got with me Joe de Lara from 27 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 3: the Cash That podcast. He's a frequent contributor on buckets 28 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 3: in the Action Network. You can find him in the 29 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 3: Action Network app at Joe de Lera. Make sure to 30 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 3: check him out. He's also in our discord if you 31 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 3: are to hang out in there. You should also go 32 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 3: check out the Action Network app because it's the best 33 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 3: way for you to track your picks. You get up 34 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 3: to the second information where the bets and money you're 35 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 3: coming in on. If you sign up for Action Pro, 36 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 3: you get up to the second updates on things like 37 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 3: Sean Kerner's betting, which I know if you're listening to 38 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 3: this podcast, you all know Sean and how insane he 39 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 3: is and how quickly the lines move. Well, you're gonna 40 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 3: get those those updates and notifications instantly when you sign 41 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 3: up for Action Pro, so make sure to keep an 42 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: eye out for that. You just go to Action network 43 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 3: dot com slash pro. 44 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 2: Joe. 45 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 3: We are most of the way through the NBA season 46 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 3: everybody's always like, Ah, it's All Star. We're halfway through, 47 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 3: and I'm like, oh, that was a month ago. It's 48 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 3: actually about three fourths of the way done. But we 49 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 3: still have two months of season left, a lot of 50 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 3: things to be decided, still, playoff picture coming into focus. 51 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 3: I think we can kind of determine that we know 52 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 3: who the ten teams, including the play in are going 53 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 3: to be in the Western Conference. Eastern Conference might be 54 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 3: a little bit more up in the air. But we'll 55 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 3: start here, and we'll start at Draft Kings Sportsbook with 56 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 3: this piece of information, which is the abs the title 57 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 3: odds for the NBA Championship. The Oklahoma City Thunder defending 58 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 3: champs are plus one thirty five. The Devin Nuggets are 59 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 3: second at plus four to seventy five. The San Antonio 60 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,839 Speaker 3: Spurs are eleven to one. Cleveland Cavaliers are twelve to one. 61 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 3: The Celtics without Jason Tatum, who has been scrimmaging with 62 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 3: the G League affiliate, twelve to one. Detroit Piston's number 63 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,839 Speaker 3: one seed in the Eastern Conference at thirteen to one, 64 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 3: the Knicks at fifteen to one, bing mong Houston Rockets 65 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,679 Speaker 3: at twenty five to one. The Wolves at thirty five 66 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 3: to one and the Lakers at forty to one. There 67 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 3: are other teams, but we're not gonna talk about those teams. 68 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 3: As we kind of look at the title picture, I've 69 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 3: got my own thoughts. But when you look at this board, 70 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 3: what are your thoughts on kind of where to find 71 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 3: value and the top as far as the league goes. 72 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 2: When we talk about the NBA Championship. 73 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's definitely it definitely feels very Western 74 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 4: Conference heavy. When you look at the board here, three 75 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 4: of the top teams are in the Western Conference, and 76 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 4: then you kind of have all of the Eastern Conference 77 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:22,640 Speaker 4: teams just bunched together. 78 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: They're like the. 79 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 4: Cavs, Celtics, Bisiness next, all of you are together. But 80 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 4: I do think that when we look at this, we 81 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 4: have to kind of consider and I'm trying to be 82 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 4: as set my Knicks bias aside. I haven't made the 83 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 4: Action Network podcast a Knicks podcast just yet, but I 84 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 4: will say that I do think there's a lot of 85 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 4: value when you look at the Eastern Conference in particular, 86 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 4: you have to say that Detroit has value. Detroit is 87 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 4: one of the top teams in the league. They have 88 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 4: the best record in the NBA right now. They have 89 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 4: a little bit of a tough stretch coming up. So 90 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 4: they're playing right now, they're playing working on Monday night, 91 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 4: but they were playing the San Antonio Spurs, so you 92 00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 4: have that head to head type of matchup against one 93 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 4: of the top teams in the Western Conference as well. 94 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 4: So we'll have to see kind of how these next 95 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 4: couple of games go for them, might impact their odds 96 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 4: a little bit. But Detroit has been tremendous and they 97 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 4: are the best team in the league right now by record, 98 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 4: and they have a really deep team with a lot 99 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: of young talent that's pretty versatile, pretty flexible in terms 100 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 4: of what they've been able to do. And it's been 101 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 4: quite the growth from them from just two years ago 102 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 4: where they were abysmal. They was it, twenty one losses 103 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: in a row they had Matt So it's been a 104 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 4: tremendous turnaround for Detroit. Yeah, twenty eight. It's been a 105 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 4: tremendous turnaround for Detroit. And I think at thirteen to one, 106 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 4: you're getting a little bit of well, they haven't done 107 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 4: it before, and it's like, well, that happens a lot. 108 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 4: That happens a lot where teams have never done it before, 109 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 4: so I do think they We're getting a little bit 110 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 4: of value on Detroit. If you wanted to back an 111 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 4: Eastern Conference team right now, yeah, I think. 112 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 2: If they were. They had never played in the playoffs 113 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 2: like the Spurs. 114 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 3: I had a lot of concerns about because usually when 115 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 3: teams make their first playoff run, they're not able to 116 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 3: make it all the way. They can make a conference finals, 117 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 3: but event something kind of catches them. The Spurs, I'm 118 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 3: a little bit worried about from the experience factor, But 119 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 3: the Pistons have playoff experience. They were in a tough 120 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 3: series last year versus the Knicks. It's just one series, 121 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 3: but that is playoff experience. You know what the playoffs 122 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 3: are like. You're not completely going to be blindsided by 123 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 3: how tough and how physical and how intense those games are. 124 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 3: They've walked into the building knowing it's a game six 125 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 3: elimination winner go home, and they lost, but they at 126 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 3: least don't understand what those environments are like, and that 127 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 3: matters a lot to me. Now, my problem with the 128 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 3: Detroit Pistons they can't It's not that they can't shoot 129 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 3: compared to the other teams on this list they can't shoot. 130 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 2: So I looked this up. 131 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 3: Last ten years, teams to make the finals, their average 132 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 3: rank in effective field goal percentage is fourth. Now, there's 133 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 3: a lot of outliers in there, like the Miami Heat 134 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty three, which were, how can I put 135 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 3: this politely, a garbage pail, just like an absolute paale 136 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 3: like can of stinky garbage that should have never made 137 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 3: it to the finals. The Mavericks were not as bad 138 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four, but nearly as bad though they 139 00:05:58,080 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 3: were good shooters. 140 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 2: So like there are liars, but in general, if you're 141 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 2: gonna especially. 142 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 3: Win the title, which you need in the situation, because 143 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 3: you know, it's not like you can buy out of this. 144 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 2: It's not like you're able to hedge this. Appropriate. 145 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 3: You can cash out maybe, but it's not like you're 146 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 3: gonna be able to be in a good position to 147 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 3: hedge this. So they're up against OKAC or San Antonio. 148 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 3: They're gonna be pretty big dogs. 149 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 2: By the way. 150 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 3: They're down fifteen as we're currently recording this in I 151 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 3: think the fourth fourth quarter. Yeah, yeah, nine to forty. Fifth, Well, 152 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,160 Speaker 3: they're down back back within ten. We'll see I'll tell 153 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 3: you what, if they win this game, then I'll be like, 154 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:29,119 Speaker 3: I'll just say forget everything. 155 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 2: They can win the title. 156 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 3: But I think the choice is awesome. They're terrific and 157 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 3: they do check the boxes that I worry about most. 158 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 3: So if you follow me on Twitter, you know I've 159 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 3: been doing this for a while and it's because I 160 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 3: think it matters. The idea has been anecdotally the regular 161 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 3: season doesn't matter. No one cares about the regular season, 162 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 3: and I think that's true on a micro level. I 163 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 3: don't think the players care about game to game, being 164 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 3: in a locker room talking to players whatever, You go 165 00:06:58,000 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 3: on to the next because you got another game in 166 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 3: forty eight hours. You can't care about it. You can't 167 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 3: be like, oh no, we love devastating. I have to 168 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 3: get on a plane and travel, and then I have 169 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 3: to get out, and then I do conditioning, and then 170 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 3: I have to do treatment, and that I have to 171 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 3: go to sleep, and they have to get up, and 172 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 3: that play just too much, and you play so many 173 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 3: of these things, they're just like, Okay, that sucks. 174 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: Next. 175 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 3: However, results in the regular season on the aggregate matter 176 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 3: a lot, and the three that I've kind of Circled 177 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 3: in on are the forty twenty rule, which is an 178 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 3: old Phil jacksonism going back to when the NBA introduced 179 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 3: a three point line in nineteen eighty. Ninety one percent 180 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 3: of all NBA champions in the forty six years that 181 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 3: that is active, ninety one percent have won forty games 182 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 3: before twenty losses. So you got to win forty before twenty. 183 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 3: I've had people be like, this is a stupid rule. 184 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 3: If you win, if you lose twenty, and then when 185 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 3: forty it doesn't matter. 186 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 2: It actually does. It drops from ninety one percent down 187 00:07:57,720 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 2: to seventy six percent. 188 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: You're still a really good team, but guess what, you're 189 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 3: not as good. So the forty twenty teams are Oklahoma City, 190 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 3: San Antonio, and Detroit Boston as we record this on Monday, 191 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 3: if they win their next three games, can get there. 192 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 3: They got to win three in a row in order 193 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 3: to get They can't lose anymore. They're at nineteen losses. 194 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 3: They got to sweep out to catch the forty twenty group. 195 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 3: Knicks are out, Nuggets are out, Cavaliers are out. It's 196 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 3: just in the Eastern Conference. It's Pistons, maybe Celtics, and 197 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:37,719 Speaker 3: then Spurs and Thunder, which makes sense. 198 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 2: These are the best teams, right. 199 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 3: The next one is SRS, which is it's called simple 200 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 3: rating system. It's from Basketball Reference and it's not this 201 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,839 Speaker 3: like super complicated formula. It's just your point differential against 202 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 3: your strength to schedule. And you go, like Matt, they 203 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 3: play everybody. 204 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 2: Why does this matter? 205 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 3: Well, no, actually it does. Like you will play four 206 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 3: teams more often. You will play some teams three times, 207 00:08:56,440 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 3: sometimes fourteen times, and the other conference twice depending on 208 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 3: when you play them. That's gonna matter depending on how 209 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 3: good that conference or division is. If you're in a 210 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 3: stack division, like if you're in the Northwest Division, you're 211 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 3: playing Oklahoma City and Denver and Minnesota and Portland. Those 212 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 3: are four teams that have playoff hopes this season. So 213 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 3: there's a little bit of differential there. 214 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 2: No team. 215 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 3: And here's the thing, only four teams in the last 216 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 3: thirty years have won the NBA Championship with an SRS 217 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 3: less than four point. Oh, we have more teams in 218 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 3: this category. 219 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 2: This is where the Knicks commit. 220 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 3: Nicks get the there within range of checking this box off. 221 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 3: Along with the other four teams I mentioned in Boston, Detroit, 222 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 3: San Antonio, okay see, and then the final one is 223 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 3: top three seed. This is the one that continues to 224 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 3: just like baffle me. This is like the one that 225 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 3: ends any sort of conversation when people are like, the 226 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 3: regular season doesn't matter, just get into the playoffs. 227 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 2: Nope. 228 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 3: We have two teams in all of NBA history that 229 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 3: have won the title as more than a three seed, 230 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 3: the nineteen sixty nine Boston Celtics fake you know, the 231 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 3: team before Disco was invented, and the nineteen ninety five 232 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 3: Houston Rockets. Both of those teams, by the way, we're 233 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 3: defending champions, should be noted. So if you take those 234 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 3: three categories, what I looked at and I did the 235 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 3: work on this, of the last thirty NBA champions, twenty 236 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 3: nine have hit two of those categories. 237 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 2: Twenty one of thirty have hit all three. 238 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 3: Still are really good mark two thirds, but you got 239 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 3: to get at least two and the and the five 240 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 3: teams that hit here are okay see San Antonio, Detroit, Boston, 241 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 3: and New York Like. 242 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 2: Those are those are? It's not there are gonna be 243 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 2: outliers no matter what. These are not hard and fast rules. 244 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 3: If you're listening to this, and you're like, well, they 245 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 3: can do it, Like Boston fans are very much in 246 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,719 Speaker 3: my mentions being like the forty twenty doesn't. 247 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 2: Matter, We're getting Tatum back. 248 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 3: And I'm like, so, Noah team in NBA history has 249 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 3: had an l NBA player coming back at midseason ever, 250 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 3: like this has never happened to you, Like you're the 251 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 3: first person to ever have this happen to you. 252 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 2: But like that's kind of the argument, and there will 253 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 2: be outliers. 254 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,199 Speaker 3: I'm sure in the next like five years, we're seeing 255 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 3: more and more teams that don't fit these categories make 256 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 3: the finals and then get the shit kicked out of them, 257 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 3: like the Dallas Mavericks in twenty twenty four, the Miami 258 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty three. Those are the two best examples 259 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 3: of like, yeah, you can make it. You're not winning, 260 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 3: but you're eventually gonna run into an actually good team. 261 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 3: So if you are thinking about any team outside of those, 262 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 3: you should probably not now an interesting one, Joe Is. 263 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 3: I do think that there's a possibility Cleveland Cavaliers are 264 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 3: gonna be able to hit two of these categories. I 265 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 3: think they can get their SRS up to two point 266 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 3: right up to four point zero, and I think they 267 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 3: can get a top three seeds. 268 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, And I mean that would naturally kick one of 269 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,839 Speaker 4: the other Eastern Conference teams out of the top three. Then, 270 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 4: so you're gonna see like there's gonna be just a 271 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 4: shift in terms of who you're looking at. I will 272 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 4: say that I do think that given the given like 273 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 4: the landscape of the way the NBA has been and 274 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 4: I do feel like it's a little bit flatter right now. 275 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 4: We haven't had a repeat champion in almost a decade. 276 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 4: I do think that if there was going to be 277 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 4: a time where some of these rules could maybe be broken, 278 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 4: that's what it is. But at the same time, it's 279 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 4: been consistent, like we're seeing these rules hit regardless of 280 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 4: the fact. 281 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: That we're not seeing repeat champions. 282 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 4: So I think that that's definitely an interesting takeaway from 283 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 4: from this type of analysis. One of the things that 284 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 4: I was looking at too, and in this title market 285 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 4: the DraftKings has as well is they have and I 286 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 4: always kind of hate betting on some of these juiced 287 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 4: kind of angles, especially futures at this juncture, but they 288 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 4: have the vision to win the NBA Finals, and you 289 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 4: can get the Northwest division at minus one fifty five, 290 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 4: which I kind of like because you get Oklahoma City, Denver, 291 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 4: and Minnesota. 292 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: All in that one spot. 293 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 4: And I do think that there's a decent chance that 294 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 4: the way the bracket could break, they might never actually 295 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 4: face each other until the second round of the playoffs, 296 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 4: and they could all actually advance. I think in the 297 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 4: second round of the playoffs sets you up to be 298 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 4: in a pretty good spot. 299 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts about that. 300 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 4: I know that some of these teams obviously don't fit 301 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 4: the criteria for winning the title, at least under the 302 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 4: criteria that you had just talked about, but I do 303 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 4: think that there's a lot of teeth for them to 304 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 4: get to advance at least to the NBA Finals, like 305 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 4: one of those three teams out of the West. 306 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. So I think it's this is where we talk 307 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 2: about this on buckets. 308 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 3: You got to see the bracket right to talk a 309 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 3: lot about this. If you're gonna bet the Conference odd 310 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 3: because you're getting such shorter value, you need to go 311 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 3: ahead and look at what you need to know what 312 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 3: the brackets down look like. 313 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 2: Like I can tell you right now, it's very very 314 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 2: very very very. 315 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 3: Likely that one and two are gonna be okay, see 316 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 3: san Antonio, just like the gap is wide now with 317 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 3: how these teams are winning, that it's unlikely that one 318 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,559 Speaker 3: of them drops completely off and we get back into 319 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 3: a competition with the Nuggets or Rockets or Lakers or Wolves. 320 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 3: I also think, I think there's value to be found, 321 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 3: but I honestly kind of wonder if you're better rolling 322 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 3: it over and do the mechanical parlay of just like 323 00:13:58,280 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 3: let's just shut them round by round and just take 324 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 3: them and the he's going to match it because matchups 325 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 3: are so determinative. Like one thing I will say on 326 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 3: san Antonio, if you don't want to just go the 327 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 3: chop er out of Oka. See, Santonio clearly matches up 328 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 3: well with the Thunder Like they've proven that this season. Okay, 329 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 3: See blitzs them last time that they played because it 330 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 3: was a all right, fine enough, but they've shown that 331 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 3: they can really get in their heads. And both of them, 332 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 3: they've talked about how much women yamas a problem for them. 333 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 2: Again, san Antonio to me is really. 334 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 3: Inexperienced, so like it wouldn't shock me if they went 335 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 3: out early. 336 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 2: But Santonio not only matches up well with Okace. 337 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 3: They also match up well with Denver because they're able 338 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 3: to get downhill and pick and roll situations with quick 339 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 3: fast guards, and those absolutely give Jokic fits and not 340 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 3: a lot of the other teams have that, like the 341 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 3: Rockets do not have that kind of look. Yeah, the 342 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 3: Wolves have actually struggledgainst the Nuggets this year because they've 343 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 3: got different personnel and their offense is a little bit 344 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 3: more balanced. So there's all these kind of teams. I 345 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 3: think they have some opportunity there. It is kind of 346 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 3: interesting just to look at trying to parse the value. 347 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 3: Do you want this team that you think can make 348 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 3: it to this round? They think at DraftKings they will 349 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 3: put up before the playoffs round of elimination. Just wait 350 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 3: and you'll be able to get a really good price 351 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 3: and nail some of those because you can look at 352 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 3: the board and be like, oh, they're definitely beating this team, 353 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 3: they're probably beating that team, and I'm gonna have a 354 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 3: really good ticket on this round that I can then 355 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 3: hedge you a little bit more appropriately with. 356 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 2: So that would kind of be the way that I 357 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 2: look at it. 358 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 3: All Right, we're gonna talk about MVP, but first I'm 359 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 3: gonna throw it over to Chris Raybond for a word 360 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 3: from our sponsor, DraftKings Sportsbook. 361 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast has teamed up with Draft Kings Sportsbook, 362 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 5: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two 363 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 5: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins. 364 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 5: Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you covered. 365 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 5: Bet live on Star player props and in progress games 366 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 5: right as they happen. To get started, use promo Code 367 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 5: Action Network when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use Code 368 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 5: Action Network when signing up and bet five bucks to 369 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 5: get two hundred back and bonus bets. If your bet wins, 370 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 5: the crown is yours. 371 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 3: Back Here on the Action How Podcast, Buckets Edition, Joe 372 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 3: Delera with me Matt Moore, let's talk MVP because we 373 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 3: thought this was done. I thought like I was kind 374 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 3: of checked out on MVP. I was like, all right, 375 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 3: she's gonna win. That's it, and that's just how it is, 376 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 3: and we're done there. 377 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 2: But shake Jails. 378 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 3: Alexander remains the favorite, but he's down in minus one 379 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 3: forty Nikola Jokic plus two seventy. Kay Cunningham of the 380 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 3: Detroit Pistons is plus five hundred, Victor Roman Yama's twenty 381 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 3: five to one, Jalen Brown's thirty to one, Luka Doncic's 382 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 3: forty to one, Donovan Mitchell one hundred and twenty to one, 383 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 3: Anthony Edwards two hundred and fifty to one, Jalen Brunson 384 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 3: Bing Bong five hundred to one, Tyrese Maxi five hundred 385 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 3: to one, and Kahi Leonard one hundred to one, one 386 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 3: thousand to one. I'm sorry, which, by the way, in 387 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 3: ESPN straw Pole, which I was pulled on, I had 388 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: Kawi Leonard fourth as a matter of fact, because I 389 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 3: think he's been the best player in basketball for two months. 390 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 2: Uh. 391 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 3: The key here, if you're not an NBA follower is 392 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 3: that the NBA has implemented the sixty five game rule 393 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 3: because it couldn't get its own players to play enough games, 394 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 3: which really embarrassing to come on a football podcast and 395 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 3: be like, yeah, they couldn't. They couldn't get their guys 396 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 3: that are paid fifty million dollars a year to try, 397 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 3: so they had to make a rule. 398 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 2: But it's true. And so now you're in. 399 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 3: A situation where ChEls Alexander has missed a handful of 400 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 3: games and is going to be out for the rest 401 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,400 Speaker 3: of the week and might be reevaluated and then out 402 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 3: even longer. We are reaching a point where his total 403 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 3: games played is probably going to be closer to seventy 404 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 3: than eighty, which means that we are in danger if 405 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 3: he suffers another injury of it going to sixty five 406 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:43,200 Speaker 3: and if you played sixty four games, he's ineligible. Nicola 407 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 3: Jokic mean, while I missed a month in January, sixteen 408 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 3: games following his injury, they've got back to backs now, 409 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 3: Yoka is playing on these back to back and Jane 410 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 3: Jokis is a mad man about playing through everything, so 411 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 3: he's another guy that is going to try and play 412 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 3: through a lot. Kid's in a pretty good position here, 413 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 3: which is one of the reasons why this is shorter. 414 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 3: Is Look, the Pistons are the number one seed. He's 415 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 3: the best player on the number one seed. His numbers 416 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 3: have been good, They've had a phenomenal season. And if 417 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 3: it's basically the five to one is if Shaye and 418 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,880 Speaker 3: Jokic are ineligible, because the gap between Shaye and Jokic 419 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 3: and Kate is so massive. If they're eligible, it's just 420 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 3: very hard for us to see any chance. Like I've 421 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,360 Speaker 3: asked this question of Joe, and this is let's start 422 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 3: at the top. 423 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,360 Speaker 2: With the two and then we can talk about Kid. 424 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 3: Because you laughed at KD being five to one earlier, 425 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 3: because you're a Knicks fan and a hater. 426 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 2: I assume that like Shaye was going to play like. 427 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 3: Seventy eight games, So even though Yokic's metrics are insane, 428 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 3: it wouldn't matter because I was like, well, if Shaye 429 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 3: plays seventy eight and Joker plays sixty six, it's just 430 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 3: too many games, especially with the winning percentage difference. 431 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, so like okayse he's lost a fair. 432 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 3: Amount of games, and now we're looking at like seventy 433 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 3: versus sixty six. How close do you think this could 434 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 3: get if they both do squeak over the number. 435 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 4: I think, honestly, as long as as long as they're 436 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 4: both there, I think that it's just two horse race. 437 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 4: And then I do think it that you at that point, 438 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 4: you really do have to look at team record, and 439 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 4: Oklahoma City is still you know, they might finish with 440 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 4: the best record in the NBA again, and they've been 441 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 4: doing this with Both teams have been doing this with 442 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 4: a variety different injuries, whether it's Denver or Oklahoma City. 443 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 4: But Oklahoma City is really like they've missed a lot 444 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 4: of dudes for extended periods of time that you would 445 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 4: expect to play there. Jalen Williams has missed a ton 446 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 4: of time, and he's a high usage player for them. 447 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 4: They've missed chet Holmgren for an extended period of time, 448 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 4: they missed half their bench for an extended period of times. 449 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 4: So I think that, you know, it's not unlikely that 450 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 4: this goes to Shay, but I do think that if 451 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 4: they are, if they're both pretty close, if they're both 452 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 4: at like the sixty five game mark somehow and they 453 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 4: both finished with the same amount of games, it is 454 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,199 Speaker 4: going to be a much bigger conversation where you have 455 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,200 Speaker 4: to say, where is Denver in the standings, and then 456 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 4: you know, how did this team perform with him without him? 457 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 4: They've kind of struggled a little bit with him coming back, 458 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 4: and I think that, you know, we talk about this 459 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,640 Speaker 4: a lot on Buckets and Matt You in particular, talking 460 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 4: about how it's hard for teams to readjust to bring 461 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,400 Speaker 4: in even the best player of the world that becomes 462 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 4: a problem. But Yokic's advanced stats are on another planet. 463 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 4: I mean, the difference between even Jokic and Shay is 464 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 4: almost the difference between Shay and Kate. So that's how 465 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:36,919 Speaker 4: big of a gap that we're looking at here. So 466 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 4: it's it's really really significant. I think that it just 467 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 4: really comes down to do like, do you really think 468 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 4: that Shay gets that close to the threshold or not? 469 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 4: And I understand that we're kind of projecting out that 470 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 4: he's going to be missing a certain amount of time, 471 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 4: But I think that it's still more likely than not 472 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 4: that Jokic winds up maybe falling out of this, Shay 473 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 4: stills around this have any game mark, and it's really 474 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 4: not too much of a question when it's entirely likely 475 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 4: that Oklahoma City still finishes the year with the best 476 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 4: record in the NBA. 477 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, you're the This is. 478 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,160 Speaker 3: Kind of the thought process is if Shae plays enough 479 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 3: games and they have what they think is going to 480 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 3: be their record, it's Shay. Yeah, the advanced metrics are 481 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 3: close enough, like Shay's up there for EPM and all 482 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 3: the other catch alls that we use, the warps and 483 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:32,719 Speaker 3: schwarps as Zachlo refers to them, it's tough because if 484 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 3: you actually do stack them up, if you actually like 485 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 3: look at the just the points, rebounds, assists efficiency, you're 486 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 3: just like, oh, it's it's like, yeah, it's crazy, Like 487 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 3: what are you what are you saying? 488 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,440 Speaker 2: Like, come on, he's averaging a thirty point triuble level. 489 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 2: This is crazy. 490 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 3: Then I do think I want to know here's I 491 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 3: guess here's my thing. Look, I Yokich is a a 492 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 3: an ankle twist away from missing it. 493 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 2: Shay is like, if that the. 494 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 3: Reevaluation here whenever it's up at the end of this week, 495 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 3: maybe early next. 496 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 4: Right before the Denver game, I think, yeah. 497 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 3: If that comes out and it's like he'll be reevaluated 498 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,640 Speaker 3: in another two weeks or ten days, like. 499 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 2: The market's gonna lose his mind. 500 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, crazy, it's gonna be. Really. 501 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 4: The thing that I don't like about the sixty five 502 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,159 Speaker 4: game rule is really like this part of it where 503 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 4: if you're trying to and this is as a betting perspective, right, 504 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 4: but yeah, when you're trying to bet into the market 505 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 4: and it's not really adequately, it's impossible to almost guarant 506 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 4: to look at these players and say well, they're going 507 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 4: to miss this many games, or you know, maybe they're 508 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 4: going to force their way back and play sixty five 509 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 4: or something like that. 510 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: It makes it much more difficult to handicap. 511 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 4: From that perspective, we can try to think it out 512 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 4: and say, well, we think this player will come back 513 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 4: or this player won't come back, but at the end 514 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 4: of the day, it impacts the betting market. So like Jokic, 515 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,919 Speaker 4: for example, he was basically off the board for the 516 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 4: entire time that he was hurt. They just pulled his 517 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 4: odds there like he's not gonna be eligible, and then 518 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 4: he comes back and it torpedoes the market. So I 519 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 4: think it could go similarly the other way, where if 520 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 4: Shay is ruled back in and only misses another two 521 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,640 Speaker 4: games or so, then the market I think is gonna 522 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 4: shift dramatically back towards Shay and we're gonna probably see 523 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 4: him a closer to like the minus two to fifty 524 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 4: minus two eighty minus three hundred mark we were seeing 525 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 4: just just before the All Star break. I think that 526 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 4: that's a more likely scenario. He's had a ton of 527 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 4: time to rest, and it's not I don't think that 528 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,400 Speaker 4: he doesn't want to win another award. I don't really 529 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,439 Speaker 4: think that that's what's going on either. And to me, 530 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 4: the reason I don't like Kid is I think that 531 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 4: the value in Kid is just you need two guys 532 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,199 Speaker 4: to miss enough games. And honestly, the thing that I 533 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 4: was kind of kicking around, everybody's pushing the Caid Cunningham 534 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 4: type of narrative. If Yokichen Shae miss a lot of time, 535 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 4: the guy who's the NBA is like. 536 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: Breaking every rule. 537 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 4: They're bending every rule for right now. They counted the 538 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 4: NBA Cup Final for him is Victor Webbin Yama, Like 539 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 4: in terms of his games, Like they're talking about him 540 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 4: in terms of what he can how many games he 541 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,120 Speaker 4: can play, and how many games he needs and if 542 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:16,120 Speaker 4: he's eligible, his advanced metrics are better than Kid's. Yeah, 543 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,440 Speaker 4: So like if that's where we're at, Like I think 544 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 4: everybody's saying, well, it's Kate, it's Kate, it's Kid strictly 545 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 4: because he's not really a risk in terms of the 546 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 4: missed games aspect of it right now. But if you 547 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 4: looked at this and you stacked him up head to 548 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,120 Speaker 4: head with Jokic Sha or honestly even Wemby, I don't 549 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,479 Speaker 4: think he gets there. And when we looked at if 550 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 4: you look at the straw pole, he's slightly ahead of Wemby, 551 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 4: but Wemby had more first place votes. Wemby had three, 552 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 4: Kate had won. And I do think that some of 553 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 4: this might swing if you start seeing guys like Shay 554 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 4: or Yokic fall out and it's closer to the end 555 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 4: of the season and you go man like Wemby when 556 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 4: he's getting close, like Whenby's gonna make it, when he's 557 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,159 Speaker 4: gonna play enough games, uh, because then I think it 558 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,479 Speaker 4: becomes oh, man like that Spurs team too, Like they're 559 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 4: incredible in their own way in the Western Conference. So 560 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 4: I don't think that it's just as straightforward as Shay 561 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 4: and Miss Caid wins. I think that he needs a 562 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 4: couple other things to happen for him to wind up 563 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 4: winning this award. And like, I'm not totally sold, especially 564 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 4: a five to one. 565 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 2: Other guys are Jalen Brown. 566 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 3: There's been like buzz about him because you know, Lebron 567 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 3: talked about him after the Lakers Celtics game. 568 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,680 Speaker 2: I just don't see it. I just I think if 569 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,199 Speaker 2: you I think the voters are going to stack these 570 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:34,120 Speaker 2: guys up, which they will. 571 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 3: It's gonna be very hard to make the argument for 572 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 3: Jalen Brown. It's like, is he gonna have the most wins? 573 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 2: No? Is he gonna have the best metrics? No? Does 574 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 2: he have great efficiency? No? Has he been great? Yes? 575 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 3: Yes, he's an MVP candidate. That's a huge credit. Like, 576 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 3: that's a huge thing. He is in consideration to be 577 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 3: on the ballot. What's odd is if the Sixers were 578 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 3: just a little bit better, I would be banging the 579 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:57,120 Speaker 3: drum for Tyre. 580 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 2: Snaxy, who's been insane? 581 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 3: Like, yeah, Kari's MAXI is twenty nine points seven seven assists, 582 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 3: two steals, forty seven thirty eight splits. 583 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 2: He's been sick, insane. Okay, do you want to? 584 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 3: I want to. I have one more scenario for you. Okay, 585 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 3: K's numbers are unimpressive. Pistons come back to the package 586 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 3: a little bit. They get the one, but they come 587 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 3: back to the pack a little bit. Shaye and Jokic 588 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 3: both miss the Cleveland Cavaliers finishes the two seed. 589 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 4: I think it could be Uh, don't I was gonna. 590 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 4: I almost told you and said it could be James Harden. 591 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 5: Uh, But. 592 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 1: I mean I think. 593 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 4: That's the thing, right If if Shae and Wemby, or 594 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 4: if Shay and Jokic both miss, the media around these 595 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 4: other teams are going to go absolutely a race crazy 596 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 4: like Boston media is going to go insane. New York 597 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 4: media is going to go crazy. You're gonna see La 598 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,439 Speaker 4: making a huge Luka Doncic push. So I don't I 599 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,640 Speaker 4: just I don't think that it's going to be as 600 00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 4: straightforward as uh, those two guys are out Kate. There 601 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 4: is going to be I think we might see like 602 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,199 Speaker 4: a really interesting scenario with the ballot kind of split 603 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 4: out where you're really looking at a plurality more so 604 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 4: than a majority in any type of way. If that's 605 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 4: the case, I don't know if it's going to coalesce 606 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 4: around one guy, which we've generally seen so far in 607 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 4: the MVP race, where even in a lot of these 608 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 4: years where we're like, man. 609 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:22,880 Speaker 1: It's close, it's it's close, it's close, it's close. 610 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:24,239 Speaker 4: I don't know what it's going to be, and then 611 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 4: you look at the ballot at the end of the 612 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 4: season and you go, oh, man, that went through the close. 613 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 1: Yeah. 614 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 3: Average over the last ten years is ninety one percent 615 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 3: of the available votes of the available vote points to 616 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 3: go to the winner, like they always coalesce around a guy, 617 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 3: which is it would be great if we got something 618 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 3: different than that, because absolute chaos on our shows, and 619 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:46,359 Speaker 3: I would be like, oh God, but yeah, I think 620 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:46,919 Speaker 3: it's tough. 621 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 2: To kind of figure out where we would kind of 622 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 2: get to with all this. It's it is really fascinating. 623 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 3: It is really hard to kind of figure out because 624 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,400 Speaker 3: you know, I feel like, oh, the Wenby's a great bet. 625 00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:58,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, he may not. 626 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 1: Make it, like this might not happen. 627 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, if you feel like you know who's gonna play 628 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 3: by all means, go for it. I want to talk 629 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 3: to you about some season long trends here, Joe, because Joe, 630 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,439 Speaker 3: you're a big props better. Most of your the best 631 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 3: that you give out on Buckets podcast and the Action 632 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 3: over Gap are prop bets. I want to kind of 633 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 3: get your sense for what have been some of the 634 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 3: trends that you've seen this season as far as how 635 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 3: things have gone, like different things that you've noticed, tactic strategies, 636 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 3: angles to take what have been some of the things 637 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:26,879 Speaker 3: that you've know us this season from the props market. 638 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think one of the one of 639 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,480 Speaker 4: the major things is that you know, you're there's a 640 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 4: proliferation of people trying to create content and put out 641 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 4: content obviously around sports betting is in particular the NBA, 642 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 4: and you see a lot of these things where you 643 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 4: see like big tickets or you know, these big parlays 644 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 4: that are generating you know, like huge dollar amounts in 645 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 4: terms of the win, but they're not necessarily the most 646 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 4: profitable way to bet. I'm not saying that all parlays 647 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 4: are bad. Parlays can definitely be good, especially if you're 648 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 4: stacking like plus ev types of scenarios. 649 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,600 Speaker 1: But a lot of times we're just seeing. 650 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 4: Like bombs out there, like lottery tickets, and I think 651 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 4: that there was a time when a lot of those 652 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 4: ault lines were a lot more profitable than they are now. 653 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 4: And I think that, you know, because we're not seeing 654 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 4: a lot of markets that have two way markets, We're 655 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 4: seeing mostly a lot of one way stuff. And when 656 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 4: you have one way markets, the books essentially can keep 657 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 4: whatever kind of hold they want on it. It's harder 658 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 4: to price from an individual betting perspective, Like if you're 659 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 4: betting into the market and you know, if you don't 660 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 4: have the optionality to bet some of these unders, then 661 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 4: it doesn't work as like a checks and balance on 662 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 4: what the line is. So I do think that there's 663 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 4: obviously some value in betting some of these ault lines 664 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 4: in particular scenarios. But I do think that overall we've 665 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 4: seen it kind of come back to earth a little bit, 666 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 4: especially even from a couple of years ago. Even last season, 667 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,240 Speaker 4: even some of it's kind of coming back to earth 668 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 4: just a bit. 669 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 1: I would say this season, if you talk. 670 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 3: About spreads and totals, I would just tell you that 671 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 3: home favorites have not been good this season. It's been 672 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 3: kind of odd. It's been an underdog season. Home home 673 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 3: favorites this season are sorry. 674 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 2: Home favorites. The season up been great. 675 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 3: They started off in the month of October at forty 676 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 3: seven percent. 677 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 2: They peaked in December at fifty. 678 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 3: Two because in the Cup play play, actually in November, 679 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 3: in Cup play, the home favorites do very well. In 680 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 3: December it slies to forty four percent and forty nine percent. 681 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 3: We're down to forty seven percent for home favorites in 682 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 3: the month of February. Likewise, we started off the year 683 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 3: with dynamite over totals. Fifty six percent in the month 684 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 3: of October, immediate crash back to forty three percent in 685 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 3: November when the NBA Cup starts because teams play more defense. 686 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 3: Forty seven percent in December, forty two percent in January, 687 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:46,960 Speaker 3: and we're down to forty six percent in February for 688 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,960 Speaker 3: totals in terms of the over rate. So we've got 689 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:55,560 Speaker 3: a pretty consistent unders, a little bit more profitable dogs, 690 00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 3: a little bit more profitab because things are a little 691 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 3: bit more wide open. Even with you know, I think 692 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 3: the tank teams have actually presented weird scenarios where you know, 693 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 3: they've covered or they've won. You have a lot of 694 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 3: teams that the market is kind of ahead of based 695 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:09,640 Speaker 3: off of the fact. 696 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 2: That they're tanking. Something to kind of keep in mind. 697 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, on that, okay, but we got to give out 698 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:17,360 Speaker 3: a bet. 699 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 2: We got to give out of bet. So we're gonna 700 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 2: give out a. 701 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 3: Best bet for the Tuesday slate. It's a very big 702 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 3: slate in the NBA. Joe, you've got a prop that 703 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 3: you feel is dynamite. 704 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 1: What do you got I do? 705 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 4: So I'm gonna be grabbing Austin Reeves under four and 706 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 4: a half assists. I really like this play. The Lakers 707 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 4: are playing the Orlando Magic. It's like the last game 708 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 4: of the slates. You have as much time in the 709 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 4: world to get this bet in. But I like under 710 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 4: four and a half assists. You can get it about 711 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 4: like minus one thirty five or so in the market. 712 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 4: It's a little bit of juice for nothing crazy. I 713 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 4: would even consider playing under three and a half if 714 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 4: you need to, if you can get it a plus money. 715 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 4: The big thing for me here is that Reeves, over 716 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 4: the course of the entire season, is averaging four and 717 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 4: a half assists, but it doesn't really it's not properly 718 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 4: kind of adjusting to having the Lakers essentially be healthy. 719 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 4: So right now, when he's playing, when he's played with 720 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:12,160 Speaker 4: either Luca or Lebron or by himself, he can die 721 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,120 Speaker 4: and he's used as a facilitator for this team. But 722 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 4: when he plays with both Luca and with Lebron, the 723 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 4: assists just crater. And he's only averaging in twelve games 724 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 4: with the two of them this season, he's averaging two 725 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 4: point eight assists and he's gone under this line in 726 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 4: eleven of twelve games so far this season. So even 727 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 4: no matter how you kind of cut this, he's not 728 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,480 Speaker 4: touching this line. Orlando is actually really good at limiting 729 00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 4: assists as well, and they're playing at a pretty slow pace. 730 00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 4: They're like about like league average or below. So I 731 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,080 Speaker 4: think that there's just not going to be as many 732 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:48,959 Speaker 4: opportunities here for Reeves to really dish the basketball. Reeves 733 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 4: has really been used when he's playing alongside of Luca 734 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,000 Speaker 4: and Lebron as like a finisher on a lot of 735 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 4: these drives, or Reeves is getting the ball, bringing the 736 00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,040 Speaker 4: ball up himself and just creating his own shot. We 737 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,920 Speaker 4: have a lot of different scenarios here where even though 738 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 4: like Luca can set people up, half the passes that 739 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 4: he's really sending out are really more than half are 740 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 4: either too Luca or tow Lebron, both of whom aren't 741 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,880 Speaker 4: always like putting up a shot immediately. Sometimes they're dribbling around, 742 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 4: or they're swinging the ball to somebody else. So to me, 743 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 4: I think that we see his passes go down. We're 744 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:26,320 Speaker 4: seeing his potential assists drop from nine over the course 745 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 4: of the entire season all the way down to six 746 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 4: point three, and then we're seeing that in the output 747 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 4: as well, all the way down to two point eight 748 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 4: per game. So I'm gonna grab Austin Reeves under four 749 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 4: and a half assists against the Orlando Magic, and again 750 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 4: if you can get under three and a half a 751 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,000 Speaker 4: plus money, I don't mind that either. 752 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 2: Great cap Man, Great Cap. 753 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,160 Speaker 3: I will give you a much shorter one, which is 754 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,760 Speaker 3: I've got Wolves and Blazers over. I projected this based 755 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 3: off of my model up A two forty two. It's 756 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,920 Speaker 3: two thirty five, and the market is we're recording this. 757 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:58,120 Speaker 3: The Wolves are the number two road over team and 758 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 3: the Blazers are the number three home over team. Both 759 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 3: these teams have a defensive reputation that kind of exceeds 760 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 3: the reality. Wolves have not been consistent in terms of 761 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 3: their defensive effort this year game to game, and it 762 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 3: causes a lot of those issues. They're also turnover grown. 763 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 3: The Blazers are great at forcing turnovers, so they're going 764 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 3: to get out, get easy, Buckets, get back. Denny Avdia 765 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 3: is out in this one with the back issue. We 766 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 3: talked about that on Buckets on Sunday Night. If you 767 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 3: want to get into the most improved player market, you 768 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 3: should go listen to that episode. 769 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,760 Speaker 2: In our Future Jays with Joe and Jim Turvy. 770 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,719 Speaker 3: But this season, when Danny Avdia is out, the over 771 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 3: is still six and four in Blazers games, so there's 772 00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,319 Speaker 3: no noticeable drop off for the offense at least in 773 00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,719 Speaker 3: terms of the total performance when Denny is out. So 774 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,360 Speaker 3: I will take the over of two thirty five and 775 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 3: Blazers Wolves. Gives you a little taste of what we 776 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:43,799 Speaker 3: give out every night on Buckets. We go live on 777 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 3: YouTube dot com Slash the Action Network Monday through Friday, 778 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 3: Sunday through Friday. Excuse me Sunday through Friday at eleven Eastern. 779 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 3: You can check out the show there, give us a 780 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 3: light review, and subscribe. I hope you guys have enjoyed 781 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,120 Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. We'll have more content for you 782 00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,319 Speaker 3: this week with the UFC episode as well as other 783 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,360 Speaker 3: things getting through the NFL off season. 784 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,279 Speaker 2: Appreciate you guys being with us. That's Joe Delira. 785 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,719 Speaker 3: You find him at Joe Delea on Twitter and then 786 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 3: the Action Network app hopefully. 787 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 2: If he's able to dig out of the snow that 788 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:10,000 Speaker 2: he's currently under. 789 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:11,800 Speaker 3: We appreciate you guys being with us. My thanks to 790 00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,839 Speaker 3: David Payne, our producer. Well see you guys, again next 791 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,360 Speaker 3: time on the Action Network podcast presented by Rocking sportswek. 792 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 793 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,800 Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 794 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,960 Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler