WEBVTT - Tariffs Gone Wrong? - Trump's Trade War Backfire 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:08.119 Well, happy Monday, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:12.560 Chuck Podcast. So coming up, I got Orn Casts. Orn 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:17.320 Cass is the chief economist and founder of the American Compass. 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:21.759 What that is is, basically, I would argue the intellectual 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:25.440 sort of the think tank that's trying to put an 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:30.000 intellectual wrapping around trump Ism, however you want to call it, 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:35.760 sort of this new populism that's on the right. And 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:39.839 what interested me on mister Cass is that he is 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:47.280 basically he is basically the godfather of these tariffs. Now 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:49.320 he'll be the first one to tell you this isn't 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:50.960 the way he would have implemented. In fact, he did 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:53.040 a New York Times out ed that, which is what 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:56.120 inspired me to put him on. As I've promised to you, 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:58.440 even if I'm skeptical of an idea, that doesn't mean 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:00.720 I don't want to have somebody on here making their 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:03.840 case and let's work shop it and you know, let's 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:05.920 have a back and forth. I think the conversation that 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:10.520 I have with Orange Casts about the terriffs as they've 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:16.080 been implemented versus perhaps how he would have implemented, we'll see, 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:22.160 looks a tough argument to make, which is you got 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.560 to sort of take some medicine for a while before 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:27.920 the goal of what these tariffs are, which is to 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:30.480 return some manufacturing back to the United States. It's going 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:32.880 to take a while, and the question is whether you 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:37.399 can get enough patients from the public to put this 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.640 off and whether the theory is right. You know, can 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:47.480 you really motivate certain industries that have decided to manufacture 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.200 outside the United States to come back? Is there enough 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:53.080 incentive to do that? I think we're all about to 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:57.760 find out. Obviously, now a little point of order here. 0:01:57.800 --> 0:02:01.040 We did this interview before Donald Trump sort of flippantly 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:05.240 said well maybe though maybe kids are for Christmas are 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.840 going to have to go with fewer toys and the 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:11.799 dolls might cost a little bit much. I will tell 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:13.760 you that is what I think is going to be 0:02:13.840 --> 0:02:16.720 the most fascinating part. And I don't want to prejudge 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:20.160 the conversation I have with Orang cast for you, but 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:24.919 if I were in his shoes, I'd be worried that 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:28.720 my theory of the case is may never get a 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:33.799 chance to be tested because of the poor implementation by 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:37.560 this administration, the haphazard way that they've been dealing with 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.560 the tariffs, and the fact that there's I think the 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:44.840 signal has been sent. Everything's kind of negotiable. And if 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:48.120 that's the case, then how do you when does a 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:51.280 company decide Okay, I'm finally going to bring everything here. 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:55.840 But I do think politically this White House has done 0:02:55.840 --> 0:02:59.800 a terrible job communicating the tariffs in general, a terrible 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:05.320 sort of preparing the country, preparing business for this. When 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:08.120 you listen to mister cass there there was another way 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.359 this could have been done, in an alternative universe, perhaps 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.400 in a more transparent and methodical way that you try 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:19.760 to implement something like this. There may have been poor, 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:23.359 more political support, but it actually brings me to where 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:27.280 I want to focus most of my opener here, which is, look, 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.440 I've certainly given this Trump White House a hard time. 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:32.400 I think it's been a terrible one hundred days for 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:38.440 them politically, and a lot of Americans seem to agree 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:42.320 that that's the case. I think that this White House 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.760 is another huge problem in blind spot, and that is 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:49.520 they only know how to communicate with their base, and 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:53.280 they only seem interested in communicating with their base own 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:58.240 the Libs. It still seems to be the mindset worrying 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:02.760 about catering to the base and making them happy. I 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.080 could argue that this firing of Mike Waltz in some 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:06.960 ways is more of a response to the base than 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:10.520 it is anything else. I guess he hasn't been fired, 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:13.480 I should correct myself. He just was simply moved to 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:17.440 another position, which you got to. You know, whatever you 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:22.159 think of Donald Trump is at least he's showing some 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:24.839 loyalty to Mike Waltz. Meaning here you got this guy 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:27.760 to quit his seat in Congress. The guy who replaced 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:31.440 him was literally sworn in three weeks ago, and now 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:34.799 he could have been completely out of a job. Ambassador 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:39.520 to the United Nations is not such a bad consolation prize. 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.480 It's no National security advisor. That's arguably the second most 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:46.640 powerful job in a West Wing after the chief of staff. 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:51.480 It's certainly the second best office. But the lack of 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.599 their lack of interest in trying to communicate with skeptics, 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:58.520 not critics on the left. They don't want to communicate 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.680 with their pure critics. That's a White House's prerogative. But 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:06.320 if you're actually trying to make a political argument and 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:09.160 win a political argument, you've actually got to try to 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:13.039 communicate to skeptics, you know, whether it's people like I 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.560 think the folks that are listening to this podcast who 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:18.320 may be skeptic of this tariff regime but you know, 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:21.360 really not happy with how it's been rolled out. It's 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:25.800 been sloppy. At least make your case in a more 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:28.760 logical way and try to talk to this crowd. And 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:30.640 I don't think they've done a very good job of that. 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:33.599 And that's the question I have. Are they even interested 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:35.479 in it? You know, the Trump one point zero their 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:38.720 communication shop seemed to be interested, and Donald Trump did 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:42.560 it in his first term, trying to communicate with everybody. 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:45.800 In fact, I think the great strength of Donald Trump's 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:49.400 candidacy in twenty sixteen versus the other campaigns was that 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.920 he was sort of agnostic when it came to the media. 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:55.680 Sure he had opinions of who he thought was good 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:58.560 to him and not, but he was willing to talk 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:01.880 to anybody. I guess we're seeing a little bit of 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.080 that in his decision to say yes to the Atlantic, 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:06.520 And that is a reminder if you can get directly 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:08.719 to the president, he'll give you time, even if he 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.640 doesn't even if he doesn't like your outlet, because he's 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:15.600 got that much confidence in himself, right he believes nobody 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:17.360 can get the best of him. He believes he can 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:22.039 survive in an interview, and as long as he's getting 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:26.360 a chance to talk, he's okay with it. I wonder 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:29.240 the question I have is a is he surrounded by 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:31.960 a press staff that wants him to do that? Or 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:34.040 is he surrounded by a press staff that is going 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:38.360 to try to prevent him or block him from dealing 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:45.400 with journalists that are neither anti Trumpers or pro Trumpers, 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:49.760 but are essentially professional skeptics. And I've always said that's 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.680 that's what I believe believe my job has been when 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:57.720 it comes to covering policy, which is okay, show your work, 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.760 be a skeptic about it, intrigued about it, cover it, 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:04.159 kick the tires, do all the do all those things. 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:07.560 But as a journalist, if you behave as a professional skeptic, 0:07:07.600 --> 0:07:09.920 then you're more likely to get more information and I 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:15.760 think deliver a better report for the average American on this. 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.400 But I do think the big you know, he's they've 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:23.000 got to figure out how to how to communicate beyond 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:26.400 their base, because right now it's not working for them politically. 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:29.560 It may make them feel good, right, and if that's 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:31.920 all the world that they live in, that's nice, But 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:33.720 then they're going to get a shock to the system, 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:39.040 as they already have been when they start holding elections. Uh. 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:43.120 The Waltz. The way the President handled the Waltz situation 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.560 is interesting, and I think the question is going to 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:48.760 be what should what should we take away from this? Right, 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.680 it wasn't a total like get out of here mindset, 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:54.720 you know, poor old Ryan's previous was fired by tweet 0:07:55.400 --> 0:08:02.280 and was essentially it appeared essentially abandon after Air Force 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:05.760 One landed at andrews Now. I don't think that's the 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:07.400 way he felt at the end of the day, but 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:10.040 it certainly looked that way, and that certainly seemed to 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:14.000 be a look that the president back then didn't seem 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:18.480 to mind the fact that he gave Waltz a sort 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:23.280 of consolation prize. I think shows that he would like 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:26.200 to have some loyalty. And it's probably smarter right if 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:29.360 you don't do that. Who knows who knows who Waltz 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:33.000 may talk to when you fire. Ask Pete Hegseth what 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:36.440 it's like when you fire former staffers, and what happens 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:41.200 when they start talking to the press. So I am 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:43.600 intrigued by the decision that they have and they had 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:46.520 this extra they had this extra job that they hadn't 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:50.760 filled because of the narrow House majority and the decision 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.440 to pull back the nomination, which, of course you an 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:55.679 ambassador was originally supposed to go to at least Dephonic. 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:58.959 But what's interesting, and as my one of my producers, 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:02.040 Laurene Gardner put it to me, he says, I hope 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:05.040 you can keep track of all of Marco Rubio's titles. 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:08.720 Right now, he is the Senate confirmed Secretary of State, 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:13.040 but he's also the acting administrator of the US AID. 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:18.719 He's also the acting Archivist, and now he's also the 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:21.560 National Security Advisor. Now a lot of people are making 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.160 Kissinger comparisons, because the last person to hold both Secretary 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:28.680 of State and National Security Advisor was Henry Kissinger to 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:33.800 Richard Nixon. And that'll be an interesting question whether Rubio 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:36.880 keeps this for a while, or whether the President decides 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:42.760 to reward witkof his sort of personal negotiator from around 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:45.840 the world, his special envoy for everything. Right, it wasn't 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:47.640 just one thing he sent him to putin. He sent 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:50.480 him to Iran, he sent him to Israel. So I 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:54.080 think right now Witkoff is sort of his personal envoy. 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:57.960 I can tell you from my understanding is that that 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:00.800 Marco Rubio really has earned a lot of trust of 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:03.679 Donald Trump. You know, when you start to look at why, 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:07.480 why was Walt's sort of pushed out? Was he pushed 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:11.439 out because of the Jeffrey Goldberg signal incident? Or was 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.800 he pushed out because Magan never trusted him anyway? Because 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:18.520 he was a well known sort of conventional or traditional 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:22.360 national security Republican. What do I mean by that? Somebody 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.480 pre Trump? Right? What there where the Republican establishment was 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.400 pre Trump? Now, Marco Rubio is somebody that I think 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:30.480 a lot of people, including myself, would have put him 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:34.120 in that track. Even the way he uh, the way 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.640 he ran the Intel Committee with Mark Warner when they 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:38.960 were one would be chair, when vice chair, depending on 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:43.000 which party was in charge, seemed to also indicate that 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:46.240 he really was sort of more on the conventional side 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:50.120 of of of where of American foreign policy, which which 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:53.400 I'd say center left and center right, you know, both 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:59.400 share share that philosophy. But as as people have told 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:03.960 me who are close to this situation, that the more 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.880 time that Trump has spent with Rubio and Rubio had 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:11.600 proximity going for him. Right. Obviously, we know this was 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:14.240 a nasty primary fight in twenty sixteen and there was 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:17.840 no love loss between Marco Rubio, Little Marco and Donald 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.920 Trump and the hands comment and all that business. But 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:26.520 that over the four years Rubio became you know, worked 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:30.080 really hard to regain Trump's trust. Now, for some of 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.080 you that might be a huge turnoff. Some of you 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:36.120 might think he's just being a hypocrite. And you know what, 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:40.120 none of us know the motive for sure. But he 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.720 became Secretary of State not because Donald Trump thought he 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:47.839 owed the establishment wing of the party somebody to give 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.240 a place to. He gave it to him because over 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:53.520 time he started leaning on Rubio when it certainly came 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:56.320 to do with anything having to do with form policy 0:11:56.360 --> 0:12:00.400 in Latin America. I mean, Donald Trump doesn't make any 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:03.360 decision on Venezuela without running it by Rubio, and it 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:05.320 was the case towards the end of his first term. 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:11.520 So I won't be surprised if this relationship of national 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.839 security Advisor and Secretary State is something that lasts a 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.680 good six to nine months, which in a Trump white 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.199 House would be a long time. Remember he went through 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:22.920 four national Security advisors in his first term. He went 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.120 through four chiefs of staff in his first term. So 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:27.920 you're looking at about you know, you know, every nine 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:30.240 to twelve months some sort of shift or change here. 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:35.080 What's interesting about all the titles that Marco Rubio has 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:39.400 is that it also gives Donald Trump flexibility. So we 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:42.040 now see what he was willing to do with Waltz. Well, 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:43.839 I don't want to totally kick him out of the 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.559 administration because you never know if you create an enemy. Well, 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:49.760 let's say he finally comes to the conclusion that hag 0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:53.000 Seth just can't manage the Pentagon. Well, now there's three 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:57.559 titles he essentially can take away. Hag Seth is Senate confirmed, 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:00.000 and so if you want to make him the National 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.000 Security Advisor, he could. I don't know if that's what. 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:06.440 If Trump wants hake Seth around that much, But maybe 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:11.560 he gives hagg Seth the Administrator of Aid, maybe he 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:15.960 hands him the archivist role, maybe he gives them an ambassadorship. 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:18.679 But I wonder if this is going to be the 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:22.160 new pattern of Trump where he finds a place when 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:25.600 he decides someone isn't working in a position, rather than 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:29.440 create an eventual source against his administration, which they're very 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:33.839 paranoid about leaks that instead, you find a place within 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:37.080 the administration, you keep this person in the tent. Just 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.800 something I'm going to be watching for. And you know what, 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:44.280 one thing we do know is Donald Trump doesn't like 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:48.480 to feed the media beast. So even if he makes 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:50.640 a decision to get rid of somebody, he'll delay it 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:54.320 a little bit, just in time, so it looks like 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:56.679 it's his decision. He doesn't want to look like the 0:13:57.000 --> 0:14:01.880 press pushed him on this. But the the uncomfortable aspect 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.600 of this Waltz decision is that it does seem to 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.360 be a victory for Laura Lumer, the person who came 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:12.439 in and seems to have encouraged President Trump to do purging. 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:15.240 And this is a question of whether who's allowing her 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.640 to have his ear. Now maybe if he wants her 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:19.720 to have his ear, there's nothing Susie Wilds can do 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.400 about it, or there's maybe Mike Waltz did try to 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:24.880 stop her, and that was part of the problem. But 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.240 you know, it's my understanding that Lumer essentially has been 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:31.160 doing vetting of any national security staffer and if they 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.720 have any connection to people like Pompeo or Cotton or 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:38.200 anybody she has deemed to be anti MAGA in the 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:43.040 foreign policy world. It has gotten those staffers ostracized. And 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.720 I'll tell you this, while he may have kept Waltz 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:50.520 at least in the circle by giving him the UN ambassadorship, 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:54.880 some of these other staffers are not going to like 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:58.080 how they were treated and on this. So that's just 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:00.720 something to watch for. There the other things I want 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.880 to clean up from the weekend, including the last time 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:05.600 I spoke to you and I talked about the first 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:08.080 hundred days of the Democrats, I left out one other. 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.640 You know, I think it's no doubt AOC probably of 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.720 all the Democrats who are worrying about it, for their 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:16.800 own first hundred days, she probably had the best first 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:20.720 hundred days. But there's another Democrat that arguably had as 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:22.480 good of a first hundred days, and maybe even a 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:25.720 better one, and that's Abigail Spanberger. And some of you 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.400 may say who is she. She is a former member 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:34.120 of Congress who is the essentially the Democratic nominee for 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.400 governor in Virginia, an election that's going to be held 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:40.000 this cycle. So why do I say she's a huge winner. Well, 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:44.200 Number one, the more unpopular first, you know, the more 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:47.320 unpopular White houses in their first year after a presidential election, 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:49.920 the better it is for the opposition party in the 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.720 state of Virginia. We have seen a remarkable pattern something 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.920 in like eight of the last nine Virginia gubernatorial elections 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.840 where the party in the White House has lost the 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:04.120 ubernatorial race in Virginia. The most recent example, Biden wins 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:08.440 the presidency in twenty Republican Glenn Younkin wins the Virginia 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:14.520 gubernatorial governorship in twenty one, Donald Trump wins the presidency 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:18.560 in sixteen, Democrat Ralph Northam wins the governorship in seventeen. 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:25.040 So now throw in Doje and Elon Musk, and I 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.680 will tell you Spanburger, the question is and whether she's 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:33.040 going to win this race. Barring some unforeseen event, the 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:35.200 question is going to be whether she can win it 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:40.480 by such a large margin that she changes she dramatically 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.240 changes the makeup of the state legislature. Not a lot 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.600 of swing districts in neither the Assembly or the state Senate. 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.320 But she could have a large margin of victory because 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:50.920 she's got a secret weapon in her hands, and that's 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:56.360 government workers. When you follow Virginia politics, these off your elections. 0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:59.760 Government workers are sometimes the most difficult to engage in 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.840 state elections. They're federal government workers, which means they're usually 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.760 very focused on federal government politics, but don't always see 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:10.120 themselves as Virginians. It's been one of the struggles Democrats 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:12.520 have had, used to have a lot, and sort of 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:15.280 they improve that over the years. I can tell you 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:19.880 now federal government workers that live in Northern Virginia are angry, 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:22.320 that are on fire. Some of them are no longer 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.200 government workers, and that wasn't a choice. Some of them 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:28.760 took retirement on purpose to avoid the dose thing. But 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:31.600 I can tell you they're very engaged. You go around 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.880 northern Virginia, you see a lot of signs of support 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:39.600 our government workers, support your government workers. I think that 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:43.080 makes what was already a difficult political environment for the 0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:49.880 Republican win some seers the lieutenant governor. It puts why 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:53.800 I would say of all Democrats, probably nobody had a 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.480 better first hundred days when you look about their near 0:17:56.560 --> 0:18:02.919 term goal than Abigail Spamburger. One other note that I 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:06.880 want to touch on is Wes Moore in his announcement 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:08.919 that he said he's not going to be a candidate 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:11.240 for president in twenty twenty eight, and his decision to 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:15.480 say it so early. Well, the only problem poor Wes 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:20.000 Moore has. It's not his fault. But I'm old enough 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:22.760 to remember when Barack Obama in twenty oh five, and 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:24.880 I think he went on Meet the President early twenty 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:26.240 oh six and said he was not going to be 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:28.639 a candidate for president, and then by the end of 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:32.560 twenty oh six came back on Meet the Press to say, well, 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:35.280 I may have changed my mind. So the point is 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.359 it's fascinating that he made the decision to announce it. 0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:42.919 Perhaps that's a way of keeping donors from calling him 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.600 all the time. Perhaps he's worried that if people think 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.879 he's looking too far ahead to the presidency that actually 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.280 a re election campaign in twenty six might become problematic. 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.240 Whatever the reason, or perhaps we should just take about 0:18:57.240 --> 0:18:59.399 his word. Maybe he thinks his family's too young to 0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:03.119 deal with as aential campaign in twenty eight he's certainly not. 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:06.280 You know, he is somebody that has a long runway. 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.000 You know, it's not as if the moment is gone 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:12.520 for him in twenty twenty eight, but it's an if 0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:14.919 there is no Wes Moore candidacy in twenty twenty eight. 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.280 I happen to believe if he runs, he's somebody that 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:19.359 would say is going to be one of the be 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:22.439 in the top tier. But if he doesn't run, that's 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:25.120 short early on. It's a big help to a guy 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:28.040 like Pete Bootages, right, he's the other veteran in the race, 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.320 having served. Wes Moore having served, that was I think 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.240 a big part of his his appeal to many people. 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:38.520 That could be a little bit of a help to 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:40.600 a guy like Pete Footage. And frankly anybody in the 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.639 what I would say is in the establishment lane of 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:47.480 the Democratic presidential race, whether it's Corey Booker, Pete Boutaggche, 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:50.359 Gretchen Whitmer, but those that are sort of viting buying 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:55.920 for the mainstream liberal support, no wesmore that that's that's 0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:57.880 a whole bunch of donors that are up for grabs. 0:19:57.920 --> 0:20:00.000 That's a whole bunch of operatives that are up for grabs, 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.840 So an interesting decision. But I will promise you, Governor Moore, 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:06.840 no one's really gonna believe you've taken yourself out of 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:13.760 twenty eight until you say it again after your twenty 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:18.520 sixth race, assuming you're successful in your reelection. All right, 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:21.640 just wanted to get a couple of those things off 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:26.679 my little my notepad of stuff that I keep. Hey, 0:20:26.720 --> 0:20:28.439 I got to mention this. Hey, I got to mention that. 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:32.919 My pause for a break when we come back my 0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:42.320 conversation with orn Casts, all right, and joining me now 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:46.040 is orn Cast. He is the chief economist, and I 0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:49.240 guess founder of American Compass is their chief economist. I 0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:55.240 hope I have that correctly, Oran and former Manhattan Institute fellow? 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:56.560 Is that also correct? 0:20:56.800 --> 0:20:57.440 Also true? 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.040 Which has been a long time of economic could How 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:04.520 would you describe the Manhattan Institute. It's always been to 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.560 me where a lot of what I would call center 0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:11.679 right conservatives end up, you know, sort of more in 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.360 line with AI for those that are follow that world 0:21:14.400 --> 0:21:16.240 in DC. Is that is that a fair comparison? 0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:19.120 Yeah? I think that's right. They're they're outside the Beltway, 0:21:19.240 --> 0:21:21.679 so they're a little more eclectic to do a lot 0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:24.359 of urban policy and so forth, but definitely in that 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:25.879 conservative think tank world. 0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:32.040 And uh it, how would I was going to describe 0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:34.280 you as sort of the one of the authors or 0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:38.439 godfathers of this tariff policy, or at least the initial 0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:43.080 policy that President Trump rolled out, but instead of me 0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:45.199 doing it, describe it in your words. What is you? 0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:47.520 What was your role in this during the campaign, and 0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:50.560 how much ownership do you take of this policy? 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:54.119 Well, it's an issue that American Compass has been working 0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:58.080 on since since we started in twenty twenty. You know, 0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:03.160 generally speaking, we sort of see the excesses of globalization 0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:06.880 as one of the major problems with the US economy, 0:22:07.000 --> 0:22:10.480 something that is harmed a lot of workers in communities, 0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:14.920 something that both political parties that economists ignored for much 0:22:14.920 --> 0:22:18.080 too long. And so, you know, I think it's very 0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:21.880 important just to have a clear diagnosis of why this 0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:24.119 is a problem. Right, everybody said free trade was going 0:22:24.160 --> 0:22:26.919 to be great and and and why might that not 0:22:26.960 --> 0:22:29.440 be the case? And then to have a clear idea 0:22:29.520 --> 0:22:31.960 of Okay, well, then what would you actually do about it? 0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:34.920 Because it's you know, some people would say you sort 0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:37.720 of have a toothpaste out of the tube situation where 0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:42.600 you can't just go back on what we may have decided, 0:22:42.640 --> 0:22:44.719 even if it was it was a bad decision. And 0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:49.160 so you know, we have developed sort of a broad 0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:53.119 range of policies and a pretty comprehensive agenda, I think 0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:56.919 for what we call reindustrialization, which is the idea that 0:22:56.920 --> 0:23:00.840 we have to rebuild American industry for the sake of 0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:03.520 communities and good jobs, but also for the sake of 0:23:03.560 --> 0:23:07.439 economic growth, also for the sake of national security, and 0:23:07.960 --> 0:23:09.480 tariffs are an important. 0:23:09.160 --> 0:23:09.679 Piece of that. 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:15.000 So the idea of a global tariff is one, the 0:23:15.040 --> 0:23:18.760