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Speaker 1: Well, happy Monday, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast. So coming up, I got Orn Casts. Orn

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Speaker 1: Cass is the chief economist and founder of the American Compass.

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Speaker 1: What that is is, basically, I would argue the intellectual

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Speaker 1: sort of the think tank that's trying to put an

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Speaker 1: intellectual wrapping around trump Ism, however you want to call it,

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Speaker 1: sort of this new populism that's on the right. And

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Speaker 1: what interested me on mister Cass is that he is

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Speaker 1: basically he is basically the godfather of these tariffs. Now

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Speaker 1: he'll be the first one to tell you this isn't

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Speaker 1: the way he would have implemented. In fact, he did

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Speaker 1: a New York Times out ed that, which is what

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Speaker 1: inspired me to put him on. As I've promised to you,

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Speaker 1: even if I'm skeptical of an idea, that doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: I don't want to have somebody on here making their

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Speaker 1: case and let's work shop it and you know, let's

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Speaker 1: have a back and forth. I think the conversation that

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Speaker 1: I have with Orange Casts about the terriffs as they've

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Speaker 1: been implemented versus perhaps how he would have implemented, we'll see,

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Speaker 1: looks a tough argument to make, which is you got

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Speaker 1: to sort of take some medicine for a while before

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Speaker 1: the goal of what these tariffs are, which is to

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Speaker 1: return some manufacturing back to the United States. It's going

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Speaker 1: to take a while, and the question is whether you

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Speaker 1: can get enough patients from the public to put this

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Speaker 1: off and whether the theory is right. You know, can

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Speaker 1: you really motivate certain industries that have decided to manufacture

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Speaker 1: outside the United States to come back? Is there enough

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Speaker 1: incentive to do that? I think we're all about to

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Speaker 1: find out. Obviously, now a little point of order here.

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Speaker 1: We did this interview before Donald Trump sort of flippantly

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Speaker 1: said well maybe though maybe kids are for Christmas are

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Speaker 1: going to have to go with fewer toys and the

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Speaker 1: dolls might cost a little bit much. I will tell

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Speaker 1: you that is what I think is going to be

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Speaker 1: the most fascinating part. And I don't want to prejudge

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Speaker 1: the conversation I have with Orang cast for you, but

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Speaker 1: if I were in his shoes, I'd be worried that

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Speaker 1: my theory of the case is may never get a

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Speaker 1: chance to be tested because of the poor implementation by

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Speaker 1: this administration, the haphazard way that they've been dealing with

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Speaker 1: the tariffs, and the fact that there's I think the

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Speaker 1: signal has been sent. Everything's kind of negotiable. And if

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Speaker 1: that's the case, then how do you when does a

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Speaker 1: company decide Okay, I'm finally going to bring everything here.

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Speaker 1: But I do think politically this White House has done

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Speaker 1: a terrible job communicating the tariffs in general, a terrible

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Speaker 1: sort of preparing the country, preparing business for this. When

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Speaker 1: you listen to mister cass there there was another way

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Speaker 1: this could have been done, in an alternative universe, perhaps

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Speaker 1: in a more transparent and methodical way that you try

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Speaker 1: to implement something like this. There may have been poor,

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Speaker 1: more political support, but it actually brings me to where

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Speaker 1: I want to focus most of my opener here, which is, look,

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Speaker 1: I've certainly given this Trump White House a hard time.

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Speaker 1: I think it's been a terrible one hundred days for

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Speaker 1: them politically, and a lot of Americans seem to agree

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Speaker 1: that that's the case. I think that this White House

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Speaker 1: is another huge problem in blind spot, and that is

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Speaker 1: they only know how to communicate with their base, and

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Speaker 1: they only seem interested in communicating with their base own

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Speaker 1: the Libs. It still seems to be the mindset worrying

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Speaker 1: about catering to the base and making them happy. I

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Speaker 1: could argue that this firing of Mike Waltz in some

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Speaker 1: ways is more of a response to the base than

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Speaker 1: it is anything else. I guess he hasn't been fired,

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Speaker 1: I should correct myself. He just was simply moved to

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Speaker 1: another position, which you got to. You know, whatever you

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Speaker 1: think of Donald Trump is at least he's showing some

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Speaker 1: loyalty to Mike Waltz. Meaning here you got this guy

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Speaker 1: to quit his seat in Congress. The guy who replaced

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Speaker 1: him was literally sworn in three weeks ago, and now

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Speaker 1: he could have been completely out of a job. Ambassador

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Speaker 1: to the United Nations is not such a bad consolation prize.

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Speaker 1: It's no National security advisor. That's arguably the second most

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Speaker 1: powerful job in a West Wing after the chief of staff.

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Speaker 1: It's certainly the second best office. But the lack of

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Speaker 1: their lack of interest in trying to communicate with skeptics,

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Speaker 1: not critics on the left. They don't want to communicate

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Speaker 1: with their pure critics. That's a White House's prerogative. But

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Speaker 1: if you're actually trying to make a political argument and

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Speaker 1: win a political argument, you've actually got to try to

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Speaker 1: communicate to skeptics, you know, whether it's people like I

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Speaker 1: think the folks that are listening to this podcast who

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Speaker 1: may be skeptic of this tariff regime but you know,

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Speaker 1: really not happy with how it's been rolled out. It's

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Speaker 1: been sloppy. At least make your case in a more

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Speaker 1: logical way and try to talk to this crowd. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think they've done a very good job of that.

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Speaker 1: And that's the question I have. Are they even interested

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Speaker 1: in it? You know, the Trump one point zero their

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Speaker 1: communication shop seemed to be interested, and Donald Trump did

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Speaker 1: it in his first term, trying to communicate with everybody.

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Speaker 1: In fact, I think the great strength of Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: candidacy in twenty sixteen versus the other campaigns was that

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Speaker 1: he was sort of agnostic when it came to the media.

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Speaker 1: Sure he had opinions of who he thought was good

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Speaker 1: to him and not, but he was willing to talk

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Speaker 1: to anybody. I guess we're seeing a little bit of

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Speaker 1: that in his decision to say yes to the Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: And that is a reminder if you can get directly

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Speaker 1: to the president, he'll give you time, even if he

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Speaker 1: doesn't even if he doesn't like your outlet, because he's

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Speaker 1: got that much confidence in himself, right he believes nobody

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Speaker 1: can get the best of him. He believes he can

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Speaker 1: survive in an interview, and as long as he's getting

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Speaker 1: a chance to talk, he's okay with it. I wonder

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Speaker 1: the question I have is a is he surrounded by

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Speaker 1: a press staff that wants him to do that? Or

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Speaker 1: is he surrounded by a press staff that is going

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Speaker 1: to try to prevent him or block him from dealing

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Speaker 1: with journalists that are neither anti Trumpers or pro Trumpers,

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Speaker 1: but are essentially professional skeptics. And I've always said that's

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Speaker 1: that's what I believe believe my job has been when

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Speaker 1: it comes to covering policy, which is okay, show your work,

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Speaker 1: be a skeptic about it, intrigued about it, cover it,

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Speaker 1: kick the tires, do all the do all those things.

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Speaker 1: But as a journalist, if you behave as a professional skeptic,

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Speaker 1: then you're more likely to get more information and I

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Speaker 1: think deliver a better report for the average American on this.

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Speaker 1: But I do think the big you know, he's they've

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Speaker 1: got to figure out how to how to communicate beyond

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Speaker 1: their base, because right now it's not working for them politically.

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Speaker 1: It may make them feel good, right, and if that's

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Speaker 1: all the world that they live in, that's nice, But

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Speaker 1: then they're going to get a shock to the system,

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Speaker 1: as they already have been when they start holding elections. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The Waltz. The way the President handled the Waltz situation

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Speaker 1: is interesting, and I think the question is going to

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Speaker 1: be what should what should we take away from this? Right,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't a total like get out of here mindset,

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Speaker 1: you know, poor old Ryan's previous was fired by tweet

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Speaker 1: and was essentially it appeared essentially abandon after Air Force

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Speaker 1: One landed at andrews Now. I don't think that's the

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Speaker 1: way he felt at the end of the day, but

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Speaker 1: it certainly looked that way, and that certainly seemed to

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Speaker 1: be a look that the president back then didn't seem

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Speaker 1: to mind the fact that he gave Waltz a sort

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Speaker 1: of consolation prize. I think shows that he would like

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Speaker 1: to have some loyalty. And it's probably smarter right if

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Speaker 1: you don't do that. Who knows who knows who Waltz

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Speaker 1: may talk to when you fire. Ask Pete Hegseth what

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Speaker 1: it's like when you fire former staffers, and what happens

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Speaker 1: when they start talking to the press. So I am

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Speaker 1: intrigued by the decision that they have and they had

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Speaker 1: this extra they had this extra job that they hadn't

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Speaker 1: filled because of the narrow House majority and the decision

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Speaker 1: to pull back the nomination, which, of course you an

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Speaker 1: ambassador was originally supposed to go to at least Dephonic.

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Speaker 1: But what's interesting, and as my one of my producers,

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Speaker 1: Laurene Gardner put it to me, he says, I hope

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Speaker 1: you can keep track of all of Marco Rubio's titles.

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Speaker 1: Right now, he is the Senate confirmed Secretary of State,

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Speaker 1: but he's also the acting administrator of the US AID.

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Speaker 1: He's also the acting Archivist, and now he's also the

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Speaker 1: National Security Advisor. Now a lot of people are making

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Speaker 1: Kissinger comparisons, because the last person to hold both Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State and National Security Advisor was Henry Kissinger to

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Speaker 1: Richard Nixon. And that'll be an interesting question whether Rubio

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Speaker 1: keeps this for a while, or whether the President decides

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Speaker 1: to reward witkof his sort of personal negotiator from around

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Speaker 1: the world, his special envoy for everything. Right, it wasn't

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Speaker 1: just one thing he sent him to putin. He sent

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Speaker 1: him to Iran, he sent him to Israel. So I

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Speaker 1: think right now Witkoff is sort of his personal envoy.

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Speaker 1: I can tell you from my understanding is that that

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Speaker 1: Marco Rubio really has earned a lot of trust of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. You know, when you start to look at why,

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Speaker 1: why was Walt's sort of pushed out? Was he pushed

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Speaker 1: out because of the Jeffrey Goldberg signal incident? Or was

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Speaker 1: he pushed out because Magan never trusted him anyway? Because

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Speaker 1: he was a well known sort of conventional or traditional

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Speaker 1: national security Republican. What do I mean by that? Somebody

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Speaker 1: pre Trump? Right? What there where the Republican establishment was

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Speaker 1: pre Trump? Now, Marco Rubio is somebody that I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people, including myself, would have put him

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Speaker 1: in that track. Even the way he uh, the way

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Speaker 1: he ran the Intel Committee with Mark Warner when they

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Speaker 1: were one would be chair, when vice chair, depending on

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Speaker 1: which party was in charge, seemed to also indicate that

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Speaker 1: he really was sort of more on the conventional side

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Speaker 1: of of of where of American foreign policy, which which

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Speaker 1: I'd say center left and center right, you know, both

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Speaker 1: share share that philosophy. But as as people have told

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Speaker 1: me who are close to this situation, that the more

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Speaker 1: time that Trump has spent with Rubio and Rubio had

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Speaker 1: proximity going for him. Right. Obviously, we know this was

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Speaker 1: a nasty primary fight in twenty sixteen and there was

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Speaker 1: no love loss between Marco Rubio, Little Marco and Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and the hands comment and all that business. But

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Speaker 1: that over the four years Rubio became you know, worked

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Speaker 1: really hard to regain Trump's trust. Now, for some of

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Speaker 1: you that might be a huge turnoff. Some of you

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Speaker 1: might think he's just being a hypocrite. And you know what,

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Speaker 1: none of us know the motive for sure. But he

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Speaker 1: became Secretary of State not because Donald Trump thought he

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Speaker 1: owed the establishment wing of the party somebody to give

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Speaker 1: a place to. He gave it to him because over

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Speaker 1: time he started leaning on Rubio when it certainly came

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Speaker 1: to do with anything having to do with form policy

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Speaker 1: in Latin America. I mean, Donald Trump doesn't make any

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Speaker 1: decision on Venezuela without running it by Rubio, and it

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Speaker 1: was the case towards the end of his first term.

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Speaker 1: So I won't be surprised if this relationship of national

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Speaker 1: security Advisor and Secretary State is something that lasts a

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Speaker 1: good six to nine months, which in a Trump white

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Speaker 1: House would be a long time. Remember he went through

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Speaker 1: four national Security advisors in his first term. He went

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Speaker 1: through four chiefs of staff in his first term. So

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Speaker 1: you're looking at about you know, you know, every nine

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Speaker 1: to twelve months some sort of shift or change here.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting about all the titles that Marco Rubio has

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Speaker 1: is that it also gives Donald Trump flexibility. So we

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Speaker 1: now see what he was willing to do with Waltz. Well,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to totally kick him out of the

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Speaker 1: administration because you never know if you create an enemy. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's say he finally comes to the conclusion that hag

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Speaker 1: Seth just can't manage the Pentagon. Well, now there's three

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Speaker 1: titles he essentially can take away. Hag Seth is Senate confirmed,

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Speaker 1: and so if you want to make him the National

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Speaker 1: Security Advisor, he could. I don't know if that's what.

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Speaker 1: If Trump wants hake Seth around that much, But maybe

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Speaker 1: he gives hagg Seth the Administrator of Aid, maybe he

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Speaker 1: hands him the archivist role, maybe he gives them an ambassadorship.

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Speaker 1: But I wonder if this is going to be the

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Speaker 1: new pattern of Trump where he finds a place when

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Speaker 1: he decides someone isn't working in a position, rather than

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Speaker 1: create an eventual source against his administration, which they're very

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Speaker 1: paranoid about leaks that instead, you find a place within

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Speaker 1: the administration, you keep this person in the tent. Just

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Speaker 1: something I'm going to be watching for. And you know what,

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Speaker 1: one thing we do know is Donald Trump doesn't like

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Speaker 1: to feed the media beast. So even if he makes

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Speaker 1: a decision to get rid of somebody, he'll delay it

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Speaker 1: a little bit, just in time, so it looks like

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Speaker 1: it's his decision. He doesn't want to look like the

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Speaker 1: press pushed him on this. But the the uncomfortable aspect

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Speaker 1: of this Waltz decision is that it does seem to

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Speaker 1: be a victory for Laura Lumer, the person who came

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Speaker 1: in and seems to have encouraged President Trump to do purging.

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Speaker 1: And this is a question of whether who's allowing her

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Speaker 1: to have his ear. Now maybe if he wants her

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Speaker 1: to have his ear, there's nothing Susie Wilds can do

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Speaker 1: about it, or there's maybe Mike Waltz did try to

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Speaker 1: stop her, and that was part of the problem. But

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Speaker 1: you know, it's my understanding that Lumer essentially has been

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Speaker 1: doing vetting of any national security staffer and if they

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Speaker 1: have any connection to people like Pompeo or Cotton or

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Speaker 1: anybody she has deemed to be anti MAGA in the

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Speaker 1: foreign policy world. It has gotten those staffers ostracized. And

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, while he may have kept Waltz

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Speaker 1: at least in the circle by giving him the UN ambassadorship,

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Speaker 1: some of these other staffers are not going to like

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Speaker 1: how they were treated and on this. So that's just

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Speaker 1: something to watch for. There the other things I want

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Speaker 1: to clean up from the weekend, including the last time

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Speaker 1: I spoke to you and I talked about the first

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Speaker 1: hundred days of the Democrats, I left out one other.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think it's no doubt AOC probably of

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Speaker 1: all the Democrats who are worrying about it, for their

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Speaker 1: own first hundred days, she probably had the best first

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Speaker 1: hundred days. But there's another Democrat that arguably had as

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Speaker 1: good of a first hundred days, and maybe even a

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Speaker 1: better one, and that's Abigail Spanberger. And some of you

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Speaker 1: may say who is she. She is a former member

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Speaker 1: of Congress who is the essentially the Democratic nominee for

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Speaker 1: governor in Virginia, an election that's going to be held

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Speaker 1: this cycle. So why do I say she's a huge winner. Well,

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Speaker 1: Number one, the more unpopular first, you know, the more

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Speaker 1: unpopular White houses in their first year after a presidential election,

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Speaker 1: the better it is for the opposition party in the

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Speaker 1: state of Virginia. We have seen a remarkable pattern something

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Speaker 1: in like eight of the last nine Virginia gubernatorial elections

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Speaker 1: where the party in the White House has lost the

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Speaker 1: ubernatorial race in Virginia. The most recent example, Biden wins

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Speaker 1: the presidency in twenty Republican Glenn Younkin wins the Virginia

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Speaker 1: gubernatorial governorship in twenty one, Donald Trump wins the presidency

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Speaker 1: in sixteen, Democrat Ralph Northam wins the governorship in seventeen.

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Speaker 1: So now throw in Doje and Elon Musk, and I

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Speaker 1: will tell you Spanburger, the question is and whether she's

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Speaker 1: going to win this race. Barring some unforeseen event, the

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Speaker 1: question is going to be whether she can win it

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Speaker 1: by such a large margin that she changes she dramatically

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Speaker 1: changes the makeup of the state legislature. Not a lot

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Speaker 1: of swing districts in neither the Assembly or the state Senate.

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Speaker 1: But she could have a large margin of victory because

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Speaker 1: she's got a secret weapon in her hands, and that's

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Speaker 1: government workers. When you follow Virginia politics, these off your elections.

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Speaker 1: Government workers are sometimes the most difficult to engage in

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Speaker 1: state elections. They're federal government workers, which means they're usually

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Speaker 1: very focused on federal government politics, but don't always see

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Speaker 1: themselves as Virginians. It's been one of the struggles Democrats

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Speaker 1: have had, used to have a lot, and sort of

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Speaker 1: they improve that over the years. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: now federal government workers that live in Northern Virginia are angry,

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Speaker 1: that are on fire. Some of them are no longer

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Speaker 1: government workers, and that wasn't a choice. Some of them

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Speaker 1: took retirement on purpose to avoid the dose thing. But

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Speaker 1: I can tell you they're very engaged. You go around

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Speaker 1: northern Virginia, you see a lot of signs of support

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Speaker 1: our government workers, support your government workers. I think that

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Speaker 1: makes what was already a difficult political environment for the

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Speaker 1: Republican win some seers the lieutenant governor. It puts why

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Speaker 1: I would say of all Democrats, probably nobody had a

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Speaker 1: better first hundred days when you look about their near

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Speaker 1: term goal than Abigail Spamburger. One other note that I

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Speaker 1: want to touch on is Wes Moore in his announcement

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Speaker 1: that he said he's not going to be a candidate

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Speaker 1: for president in twenty twenty eight, and his decision to

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Speaker 1: say it so early. Well, the only problem poor Wes

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Speaker 1: Moore has. It's not his fault. But I'm old enough

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Speaker 1: to remember when Barack Obama in twenty oh five, and

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Speaker 1: I think he went on Meet the President early twenty

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Speaker 1: oh six and said he was not going to be

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Speaker 1: a candidate for president, and then by the end of

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Speaker 1: twenty oh six came back on Meet the Press to say, well,

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Speaker 1: I may have changed my mind. So the point is

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Speaker 1: it's fascinating that he made the decision to announce it.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps that's a way of keeping donors from calling him

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Speaker 1: all the time. Perhaps he's worried that if people think

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Speaker 1: he's looking too far ahead to the presidency that actually

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Speaker 1: a re election campaign in twenty six might become problematic.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the reason, or perhaps we should just take about

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Speaker 1: his word. Maybe he thinks his family's too young to

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Speaker 1: deal with as aential campaign in twenty eight he's certainly not.

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Speaker 1: You know, he is somebody that has a long runway.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's not as if the moment is gone

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Speaker 1: for him in twenty twenty eight, but it's an if

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Speaker 1: there is no Wes Moore candidacy in twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: I happen to believe if he runs, he's somebody that

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Speaker 1: would say is going to be one of the be

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Speaker 1: in the top tier. But if he doesn't run, that's

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Speaker 1: short early on. It's a big help to a guy

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Speaker 1: like Pete Bootages, right, he's the other veteran in the race,

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Speaker 1: having served. Wes Moore having served, that was I think

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Speaker 1: a big part of his his appeal to many people.

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Speaker 1: That could be a little bit of a help to

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Speaker 1: a guy like Pete Footage. And frankly anybody in the

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Speaker 1: what I would say is in the establishment lane of

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Speaker 1: the Democratic presidential race, whether it's Corey Booker, Pete Boutaggche,

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Speaker 1: Gretchen Whitmer, but those that are sort of viting buying

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Speaker 1: for the mainstream liberal support, no wesmore that that's that's

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of donors that are up for grabs.

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Speaker 1: That's a whole bunch of operatives that are up for grabs,

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Speaker 1: So an interesting decision. But I will promise you, Governor Moore,

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Speaker 1: no one's really gonna believe you've taken yourself out of

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Speaker 1: twenty eight until you say it again after your twenty

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Speaker 1: sixth race, assuming you're successful in your reelection. All right,

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Speaker 1: just wanted to get a couple of those things off

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Speaker 1: my little my notepad of stuff that I keep. Hey,

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Speaker 1: I got to mention this. Hey, I got to mention that.

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Speaker 1: My pause for a break when we come back my

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Speaker 1: conversation with orn Casts, all right, and joining me now

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Speaker 1: is orn Cast. He is the chief economist, and I

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Speaker 1: guess founder of American Compass is their chief economist. I

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Speaker 1: hope I have that correctly, Oran and former Manhattan Institute fellow?

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Speaker 1: Is that also correct?

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Speaker 2: Also true?

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Speaker 1: Which has been a long time of economic could How

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Speaker 1: would you describe the Manhattan Institute. It's always been to

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Speaker 1: me where a lot of what I would call center

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Speaker 1: right conservatives end up, you know, sort of more in

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Speaker 1: line with AI for those that are follow that world

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Speaker 1: in DC. Is that is that a fair comparison?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think that's right. They're they're outside the Beltway,

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Speaker 2: so they're a little more eclectic to do a lot

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Speaker 2: of urban policy and so forth, but definitely in that

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Speaker 2: conservative think tank world.

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Speaker 1: And uh it, how would I was going to describe

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Speaker 1: you as sort of the one of the authors or

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Speaker 1: godfathers of this tariff policy, or at least the initial

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Speaker 1: policy that President Trump rolled out, but instead of me

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Speaker 1: doing it, describe it in your words. What is you?

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Speaker 1: What was your role in this during the campaign, and

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Speaker 1: how much ownership do you take of this policy?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's an issue that American Compass has been working

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Speaker 2: on since since we started in twenty twenty. You know,

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Speaker 2: generally speaking, we sort of see the excesses of globalization

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Speaker 2: as one of the major problems with the US economy,

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Speaker 2: something that is harmed a lot of workers in communities,

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Speaker 2: something that both political parties that economists ignored for much

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Speaker 2: too long. And so, you know, I think it's very

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Speaker 2: important just to have a clear diagnosis of why this

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Speaker 2: is a problem. Right, everybody said free trade was going

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Speaker 2: to be great and and and why might that not

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Speaker 2: be the case? And then to have a clear idea

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Speaker 2: of Okay, well, then what would you actually do about it?

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Speaker 2: Because it's you know, some people would say you sort

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Speaker 2: of have a toothpaste out of the tube situation where

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Speaker 2: you can't just go back on what we may have decided,

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Speaker 2: even if it was it was a bad decision. And

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Speaker 2: so you know, we have developed sort of a broad

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Speaker 2: range of policies and a pretty comprehensive agenda, I think

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Speaker 2: for what we call reindustrialization, which is the idea that

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Speaker 2: we have to rebuild American industry for the sake of

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Speaker 2: communities and good jobs, but also for the sake of

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Speaker 2: economic growth, also for the sake of national security, and

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Speaker 2: tariffs are an important.

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Speaker 1: Piece of that.

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Speaker 2: So the idea of a global tariff is one, the

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Speaker 2: idea of confronting China in particular and decoupling from China

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Speaker 2: to another, and then there's a lot of other stuff.

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Speaker 2: So conceptually, I would say we are very much on

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Speaker 2: the same page and been very encouraged by the direction

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Speaker 2: the Trump administration has gone. In the specifics, I think,

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Speaker 2: as we've seen there have been a lot of costs

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Speaker 2: that I think are are too high and higher than

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Speaker 2: they need to be, and that's where we would depart

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Speaker 2: on the specifics.

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Speaker 1: Look, the motivation for me to book you was your

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Speaker 1: New York Times up ed that you know, look, I'm

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Speaker 1: a skeptic that we can reindustrialize the way you say

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Speaker 1: it is, but the way you outlined how you would

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Speaker 1: have implemented this versus how it was done, you had

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Speaker 1: a very sensible thing you you were trying you frankly,

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Speaker 1: were trying to take into account there would be some

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Speaker 1: shock to the supply chain, there'd be shocked to business planning,

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Speaker 1: and in some ways you wanted to telegraph everything that

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Speaker 1: was going to happen. But essentially by six months is

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Speaker 1: the impression I got from your op ed that you

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Speaker 1: were you know that none of these the s that

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Speaker 1: you would you would lay it out what it was

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Speaker 1: going to look like, but you would give at least

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty days of breathing room, both for

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Speaker 1: Corporate America to plan for this, but also to give

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Speaker 1: room for some trade deals before the implementation. That isn't

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Speaker 1: how it's been.

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Speaker 2: Implemented, That's right. I think the you know, the phase

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Speaker 2: in concept is a really important one because it goes

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Speaker 2: to the heart of what do we actually expect tariffs

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Speaker 2: to do? And at the end of the day, what

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00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 2: matters for a tariff is not what is the value

433
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 2: on day one, because no one can change how they

434
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 2: do business on day one. On day one, it's just

435
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 2: going to be something you pay. Matters is what is

436
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 2: the tark going to be in years three through ten,

437
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 2: Because the investment decisions that people make today are based

438
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 2: on what they expect policy to look like over that timeframe.

439
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: And so my view is that if you want to

440
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 2: make this sort of long term structural shift in the economy,

441
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: you want to keep the upfront costs as low as possible.

442
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 2: You want to say, look, we are going to give

443
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 2: a time, give time for businesses to adjust, for other

444
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 2: countries to adjust, but we also want to be as

445
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 2: clear and credible as possible. This is happening that if

446
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 2: you don't start adjusting as quickly as you can, you

447
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 2: are going to get hit. And so that's where I think,

448
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 2: you know, some of what the administration has done in

449
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 2: being quite sort of abrupt, and I think shaking people

450
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 2: out of their stupor in a sense has been helpful.

451
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,199
Speaker 2: But when you think about, you know, across all of

452
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 2: those trade partners, and we think about with China, you

453
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 2: know what is going to be the key to the success.

454
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: The key is that we have a credible and sustainable

455
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: policy and that people really believe three years from now

456
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 2: there are going to be high tariffs, and and that's

457
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 2: where I think, you know, I think the Trim administration

458
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: has already made some good course corrections, but especially in China,

459
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 2: where where there's probably still more work to be done.

460
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: Tell me how you got here intellectually? I mean, it's

461
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 1: just you know, to think that you were met Romney's

462
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 1: domestic policy advisor. This is a guy, and I think

463
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 1: he's a you know, a free marketeer and every definition

464
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: that that is probably even more libertarian maybe than most

465
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: elected Republicans today, at least on this issue. So how

466
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: did you get how did you get to where you've

467
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: gotten intellectually?

468
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, that's I would say, that's just wrong

469
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 2: about about Romney on a lot of issues. You know,

470
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: that's actually right. I think he was a very sort

471
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: of conventional pre Trump conservative on the trade issue. He wasn't.

472
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 2: And that was really my entry point into it. I

473
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 2: still remember the meeting when we we brought him the

474
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 2: sort of standard briefing on you know, okay, here's what

475
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 2: a Republican says about trade, and he kind of looked

476
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 2: through it and said, yeah, that that's fine, But what

477
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 2: are we going to do about China, And at that

478
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: time that was sort of a very strange question to ask.

479
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: I remember the senior economic advisors said, you don't do

480
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 2: anything about China. What what's the problem? We have? Free trade?

481
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: And you know, I think Romney brought a much more

482
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 2: sort of pragmatic business view to the issue, which which

483
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 2: in many cases argues for a very free market approach,

484
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 2: but when it comes to China, really doesn't that that

485
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 2: the kind of economic relationship we had with China was

486
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 2: clearly just not a functional one if what you cared

487
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 2: about was business success in the United States. And so

488
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 2: that that kind of got me sent off on a

489
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: journey to figure out, Okay, what what can we say

490
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: about this? How would we approach it? And what I

491
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 2: found was that in the right of center there was

492
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: just nothing that what had you know, begun back in

493
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 2: Meagan's day as as some kind of very thoughtful economic

494
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 2: reforms had just sort of ossified into this kind of

495
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 2: market fundamentalism that just well, free trade is always good

496
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,360
Speaker 2: and we don't have to think about it any more

497
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 2: than that. It's interesting one of the one of the

498
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 2: few guys the.

499
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 1: Size of our economy though over the last basically since Reagan. Right,

500
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: and you go and and in many ways, the Democratic

501
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 1: you know, this is one of those cases I was,

502
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 1: you know, you know, somebody's won an argument when somebody

503
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: from the other political party starts making the same argument.

504
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: Right and so right, the Democrats have essentially, at least

505
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: Clinton and Obama have been more on the side of

506
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: of opening opening trade barriers and things like that. So

507
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: and certainly George W. Bush, I think uh was was

508
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: part of that was part of that movement too. How

509
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: do you do you believe we does our does the

510
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: size of our economy indicate that that from a macro

511
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: level was a good idea?

512
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 2: No? Maybe, I'm by the question. I don't know what

513
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 2: the size.

514
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: How big our GDP is now and how big and

515
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: how frankly the amount of people that have been lifted

516
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: out of poverty worldwide that overall, this freer and open

517
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: trade has been better for a greater number of people

518
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: on the globe than not. I understand there have been

519
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: winners and losers, but on the whole, how would you

520
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: assess that?

521
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: Well? I think if you're looking around the world, there

522
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 2: are certainly a lot of people in China who benefited

523
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: greatly from the Chinese Communist Party's exploitation of the global

524
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: trading system. But I'm not sure what role that plays

525
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 2: in the assessment that you'd want an American policy maker

526
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 2: to have of the kind of policy that's good for

527
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: the United States. And here I think it's really important

528
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: to say that, you know, yes, the economy has continued

529
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 2: to grow during the period of globalization, doesn't really tell

530
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: you anything about globalistation. I mean, the economy was growing

531
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 2: in the period without globalization as well, right. In fact,

532
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: growth has slowed significantly over the past couple of decades.

533
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 2: Productivity growth has slowed, we see investment declining. And so

534
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: if you actually look at the tradition of American economic policy,

535
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: you know, certainly, up until World War Two, high tariffs

536
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: were the norm. The Republican Party began as the party

537
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: of tariffs. And so I think it's a little bit

538
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: lazy to say, like, well, but back then, I would

539
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 2: argue the reconization must be a good thing. That doesn't

540
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: an economic analysis.

541
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: But I guess what I would argue is that, so

542
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: take what why was the Republican Party? I would argue,

543
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: why was the Republican Party a bit more pro tariff

544
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: back in the early parts of the twenty century, pre

545
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 1: World War Two, well, American business primarily made its money

546
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: on Americans and primarily, you know, there wasn't nessus and

547
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 1: in fact didn't want to see their business shaken up

548
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: by outside by foreign forces. So in some ways there

549
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 1: was It made sense to me that business policy, the

550
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: pro business side of the argument, was to make sure

551
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: American businesses were protected from its outside competition.

552
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm pretty sure Abraham Lincoln wasn't a tariff

553
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: guy because that's what the US Chamber of Commerce told him.

554
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: Oh I'm not saying that, but it was. In fact,

555
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: then we weren't right, there wasn't really a global economy.

556
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 2: That's my point. Well, that is certainly true to some extent.

557
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's interesting to see actually that that

558
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 2: you know, trade was in many ways much higher in

559
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 2: the early twentieth century than in the mid twentieth century.

560
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: My point is just that the sort of market fundamentalism

561
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 2: and the assumption that free trade is always good regardless

562
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 2: of how other countries are behaving. It is a sort

563
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 2: of very weird and recent point of view that again,

564
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: not even Ronald Reagan held. I mean, look at how

565
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 2: Reagan approached the Japanese on a range of issues. It

566
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 2: was always very well understood that free trade can be

567
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 2: a good thing, That trade that actually entails the trade

568
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 2: of things you make for things that others make, can

569
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 2: benefit everybody, but that they are also an awful lot

570
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: of ways that it can go wrong. And I think

571
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: what we really lost, especially in the post World War period,

572
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 2: when people sort of thought, well, you know, the US

573
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 2: is now the loan superpower. It's in our interest to

574
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 2: preside over this liberal world order that's going to benefit everybody.

575
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: Of course, the real case for embracing China was that

576
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: this was going to somehow lead them to liberalize and democratiz.

577
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: Did that work? That's probably the biggest, Right, there's the

578
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: biggest bipartisan foreign policy prediction failure. However you want to

579
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: blump that in, is just that because that was the

580
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 1: argument to give them a seat at the table. Wto right,

581
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: that was the argument. Not the more they the more

582
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: you introduce the market to China, eventually communism will disappear.

583
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 2: Right, And so the question now if you if you just

584
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 2: say okay, well, let's say you could go back from

585
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five to two thousand and say, hey, guys,

586
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 2: if you do this, here's how it's going to look.

587
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 2: This is what China is going to become. Would anybody

588
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 2: would you know, would would the economists like Larry Summers

589
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 2: who were pounding the table saying this is the most

590
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: important thing we can be doing. Would they say, yeah,

591
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: this is still a great idea, even if this is

592
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 2: the direction China is going to go. There are a

593
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: few sort of really crazy libertarians who would still say yes,

594
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: free trade, no matter what. But I think virtually anybody

595
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: would say no. It obviously makes no sense to try

596
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: to pursue free trade in this way with such a

597
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 2: totally incompatible economic and political system. And we are we

598
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 2: are living with the consequences of that error, and I

599
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: think fortunately we're now starting to unwind it.

600
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: So I guess the thing that was sort of confusing

601
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: about how this was rolled out is that was it.

602
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: It felt as if this this terriff regiment was it

603
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 1: was almost like implemented like a machine gun. You know,

604
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: it hit everybody when really the real target. I mean,

605
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: think about what we just spent the last ten minutes

606
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: talking about China, right, this is really about China. This

607
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 1: is about creating a fair trade relationship between the United

608
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 1: States and China, the two largest economies. Is there a

609
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 1: better way we could have kept our allies on our

610
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: side on this? And are we risking China? You know,

611
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:38,919
Speaker 1: are we risking the EU ending up cutting a more

612
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: a deal with China that we're going to regret they cut.

613
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, first of all, it's the EU that

614
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: is going to regret if it cuts the deal with

615
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 2: China like that. But I think we're broadly it's important

616
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: to say that this isn't just about China. That you know,

617
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 2: we were just talking about China for the last ten minutes,

618
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 2: because I had been describing how you're going all the

619
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 2: way back to twenty two twelve. That had been an

620
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 2: issue that even somebody like Romney was starting to look

621
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: at it and say, wait a minute, this is not working.

622
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 1: But this seems to be the driver of tariff policies

623
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 1: in both parties right now, is how do we deal

624
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: with China?

625
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: No, I should think that's certainly not the case when

626
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 2: you look at the Trump administration's approach, and if you

627
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,919
Speaker 2: go back all the way to you know, the order

628
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 2: that that they issued on day one America first trade policy.

629
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 2: The focus was on balance and the idea that that

630
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 2: balanced trade is a very valuable and productive thing, but

631
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: that imbalanced trade, where we run massive trade deficits in

632
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 2: the long run, is not a good thing. And China

633
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 2: is the quintessential illustration of this. You look at the

634
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 2: relationship with China and how imbalanced it is, and you say, oh, yeah,

635
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 2: it makes sense that there's something wrong there.

636
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 1: But well, they argue they have a bigger consumer market

637
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: than we do.

638
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 2: Right, you know, we can't have a bigger consumer market

639
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 2: than we do.

640
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: No, they don't, but they But that's always what I

641
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: would say is in theory because of the size of

642
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: their population, that is why so many American companies are

643
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: fighting for an opportunity in there, because that's the I

644
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: think I've always believed that's the payday they think they're

645
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: counting on.

646
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 2: That's right theory, the case for free trade. And again,

647
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 2: if you go back to what people are saying in

648
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 2: the year two thousand was yes, there are lots of

649
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 2: jobs that will go over there where they will make

650
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 2: things that we used to make for ourselves, but we

651
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 2: will get just as many new opportunities to make things

652
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 2: for that, and that just did not happen. That being said,

653
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 2: even if you zeroed out trade with China and the

654
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 2: US would still have a massive trade deficit. China doesn't

655
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,760
Speaker 2: even account for the majority of our trade deficit.

656
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 1: How much of our trade deficit with everybody else is

657
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: just simply we are the biggest consumer market there is.

658
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 2: Well, why would that lead to a trade deficit.

659
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: Well, we're going to consume more goods from the outside

660
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: than a smaller country is going to be able to

661
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: consume of our goods.

662
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 2: Yes, but that's not I'm sorry, that's not how it works.

663
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: That well, I understand that's not how it works, but

664
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: it does seem as if the math on what's the

665
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 1: trade deficit, I mean, the fact is we're going to

666
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 1: have it.

667
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 2: That makes no sense.

668
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: Let me well, then walk me through this, walk me

669
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 1: through the walk me through the math here on how

670
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 1: you define a balanced relationship when it is not. You know,

671
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: we're not always going to have an export that a

672
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 1: smaller country is going to consume at the same levels

673
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: that we might consume an export that they send us.

674
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: I think that that can be very well true of

675
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 2: very small developing countries. But we're not talking mainly about

676
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 2: small developing countries.

677
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 1: But we did slap a bunch of tariffs on those

678
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: folks too.

679
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 2: Yes, and and there are some very real problems with

680
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 2: leaving them out. And one that we see is what's

681
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 2: called transshipment, which is, if.

682
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: We get that, the cheat, the cheating where they do.

683
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 2: This.

684
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: So I understand that at me.

685
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, but this is what drives me nuts is

686
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 2: the frequency was just like, well, let's find something to

687
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 2: poke at and score a point on. And then you

688
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 2: back and you're like, no, no, actually, I under standard

689
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 2: does make it.

690
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: No. I look, I understand the theory behind it, but

691
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 1: I don't know if you can ever get to the balance.

692
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: But anyway, go ahead. I'm sitting here talking over you,

693
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: and that is not what I intend to do. I

694
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: want you to explain your point of view here.

695
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 2: Go forth. So let's focus on the other major companies

696
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 2: like Japan, like Germany, the massive imbalances that we have

697
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 2: with those countries, more recently with Mexico as well, in

698
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 2: part because a lot that used to come from China

699
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 2: started coming in through Mexico instead. Those imbalances are not

700
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 2: explained by some theory of you know, we have a

701
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 2: bigger consumer market than they do at the end of

702
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: the day, if you go all the way back to

703
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 2: Adam Smith, you go back all the way to the

704
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: economists who first made the arguments about why trade works.

705
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: The entire premise is that you are trading stuff for stuff, right,

706
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: the word is trade. And so what's so important to

707
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 2: recognize is if you say, well, okay, but why you

708
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 2: don't need to have balance trade? It could be imbalanced

709
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 2: and maybe you know, because someone's market is bigger than

710
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 2: somebody else els it's important to recognize that it's not

711
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 2: like they're just giving us the stuff. If we're not

712
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 2: trading stuff that we make for stuff that they make.

713
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 2: What we are trading instead is our assets. So what

714
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 2: happens is countries like Japan and Germany and China send

715
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:22,240
Speaker 2: us enormous amounts of stuff that they produce, and instead

716
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,399
Speaker 2: of in return receiving things that we produce, what they

717
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: receive from us are assets. They receive ownership of our

718
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: corporations in real estate, they receive lots and lots of debt,

719
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 2: meeting pieces of paper saying we will pay you for

720
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 2: this someday. And there are lots of really interesting reasons

721
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 2: why they like that trade as well, But the end

722
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 2: result of it is therefore a double hollowing out. In

723
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 2: the short run, you would say, hey, it's great, we

724
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 2: got to consume a lot of stuff and didn't even

725
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 2: have to make anything, but that comes at the expense

726
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 2: of the strength of our economy, the opportunities for workers,

727
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 2: kinds of investments we do or don't make. And then

728
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 2: in the long run, of course, we've essentially mortgaged the future.

729
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 2: We have handed over all of those future claims on

730
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 2: our prosperity two other countries in return for the consumption today.

731
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 2: And so you know, again, this is something that Warren

732
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 2: Buffett actually wrote a fascinating piece about this all the

733
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,240
Speaker 2: way back in two thousand and three when these trends

734
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 2: were first just emerging. But yeah, just in very common

735
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 2: sense terms, if you want trade to actually work, it

736
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 2: has to be trade. And that, I think is the

737
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 2: core of the argument that the Trump administration is making,

738
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 2: and one that's absolutely correct, is that we would love

739
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 2: to have robust trade with Japan, with Germany, with the

740
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: rest of the world broadly, but it needs if it's

741
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 2: going to work, for the United States, to be the

742
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 2: kind of trade in which other countries are buying things

743
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 2: for us and we are in turn buying things from

744
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 2: other countries.

745
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 1: Let me go back to NAFTA, because there's it's clear, right,

746
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 1: NAFTA's is frank I joke. It's a five letter acronym,

747
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 1: but it's a four letter word in places like Iowa

748
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 1: and Ohio. And you know this quite well. But there

749
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: were two things that sort of came out of NAFTA.

750
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 1: While while the industrial Midwest got it, the sun Belt

751
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 1: benefited quite a bit. Right. There were winners and losers

752
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 1: within it. And I think this is what makes I

753
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 1: think trade deals very complicated for the United States. Because

754
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 1: our economy is really diverse, because our workforce is really diverse,

755
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 1: you can have these sort of different outcomes, and I

756
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: think it's a challenge because you're going to pit one.

757
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 1: You may end up you don't want to do this

758
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 1: politically because this is a trap right where you're pitting

759
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:50,359
Speaker 1: one region against the other. Let's say we know what

760
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 1: NAFTA is going to do to these industrial towns and

761
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: Iowa and Ohio, I want to focus on those two.

762
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 1: I know those two states better, and that's the only

763
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 1: reason I'm doing it. Was there a better way to

764
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 1: implement the vocational trading. Was there a better way to

765
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 1: encourage domestic migration, which arguably has been a way that

766
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: the United States has sort of you know, people have

767
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 1: improved their lives in the past. What could we have

768
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:23,320
Speaker 1: done differently that would have minimized this impact on Iowa

769
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 1: and Ohio that we ended up with without hurting the

770
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: advancements that have been made in South Carolina, Alabama, you know, Tennessee,

771
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 1: the states that have that have in Texas in particular,

772
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 1: right that has benefited a lot from NAFTA. So, you know,

773
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 1: how how how could we have done this better even

774
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 1: if we decided to still produce proceed along this road

775
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 1: of a of essentially a North America uh Trade Agreement

776
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 1: pre trade agreement.

777
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: Well, one element is I think we could have structured

778
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 2: the differently. You know, we could have structured it certainly

779
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 2: to provide much stronger, for instance, labor protections, so that

780
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 2: the strategy did not just become investors are moving to

781
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 2: Mexico because it's easier to exploit workers in Mexico. Uh.

782
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 1: You know, if you think about what is the actual

783
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: basis for union arguments at the time, they were just

784
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: sitting there going. If you don't, don't we don't demand

785
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 1: some sort of higher floor on wages in Mexico. This

786
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: is you know, as Ross PuO famously once said, the

787
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: giant sucking sound.

788
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 2: Well and this again, you know, this is why I

789
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 2: always prop on this question, like what is the actual

790
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 2: theory of trade here? Why are we expecting it to

791
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 2: be beneficial in theory. We expect it to be beneficial

792
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,799
Speaker 2: because we think there's value in specialization. If if there

793
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 2: are things they can do more efficiently in Mexico and

794
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 2: things we can do more efficiently here, that's great. We

795
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 2: think there are benefits of scale. If we have a

796
00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 2: bigger North American market for everybody to sell into, we

797
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 2: can make games from that. The problem is that when

798
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 2: you look at where the actual what is actually driving

799
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 2: investment and economic moves in trade, too often it's none

800
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: of that at all. It's just investors and corporations saying, hey,

801
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 2: we can exploit labor and pay people a lot less

802
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 2: to do the same thing somewhere else.

803
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: Hasn't this been a but hasn't this been what the

804
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 1: entire twentieth century? I mean, you know, the first toys

805
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 1: I had were made in Taiwan and firs, excuse me,

806
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 1: made in West Germany. That's always my favorite of these

807
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 1: little matchbox cards where you made in West Germany. I

808
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 1: saved one because how often you're going to see that

809
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 1: these days. Then things were made in Taiwan, right, then

810
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 1: things were made in Japan. But the point is is

811
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 1: that it feels as if this has been that this

812
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 1: is what an industrial capitalism looks like. Right, There's always

813
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 1: going to be some place that an industry finds to

814
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 1: go to that'll be a cheaper way to make their widget.

815
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 2: There's no reason that that should be the case. And

816
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 2: again that's not the theory as it's soul. Right, go

817
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 2: back to what economists say when they're saying we should

818
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 2: do NAFTA, we should do wto. The arguments are there

819
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 2: are some things that are going to be relatively more

820
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 2: efficiently produced in those other places, but there are other

821
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 2: things that are going to be relatively more efficiently produced

822
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 2: in the United States. And so the game comes from

823
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 2: the fact that, yes, maybe they're making the toy cars

824
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 2: for us, and we are making the industrial equipment that

825
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:35,359
Speaker 2: makes the toy cars. Right, And again, there was a

826
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 2: time when that was the case. I mean, you go

827
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:41,439
Speaker 2: back to the nineteen seventies, you know, sixties and seventies,

828
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 2: the US essentially did have balanced trade. It is a

829
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 2: much more recent phenomenon that in many ways was driven

830
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 2: by the development strategy in these East Asian countries that said,

831
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 2: the way that we are going to grow is by

832
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: investing massively in very competitive export sectors. So we are

833
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 2: going to we are going to such arrange our economy

834
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: to hold down the cost of our labor and drive

835
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 2: as much savings as possible into manufacturing growth that we

836
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 2: can sell into the American market, because those Americans are

837
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 2: sitting there saying, yes, please send us more cheap stuff.

838
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 2: And so certainly it's it's important to say right like

839
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 2: this is this is our own fault too.

840
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: So I've heard you say that you think people would

841
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 1: be willing to pay more if they knew it was

842
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: made in America. I I I was raised by a

843
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 1: father who's we were the last owners of a Zenith

844
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 1: television because Zenith was the last TV that made that

845
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 1: mostly had its parts made in America. Okay, even then,

846
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 1: and I remember, but at some point it became an

847
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 1: impossibility to even do that.

848
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 2: Well, I think to be clear, I think the sort

849
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 2: of would you pay more for something made in America

850
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 2: is not quite the right question to ask. It reminds

851
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 2: me of you know, I live in Massachusetts, and when

852
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 2: you file your taxes, there's a little checkbox you can

853
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 2: check if you just want to pay a higher tax rate.

854
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 2: And you know, unsurprisingly not a lot of people check that.

855
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 2: Trust people don't check that box. I know that's away. Yeah,

856
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 2: not even people who believe that.

857
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: Remember we used to have the contributing money to the

858
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 1: Presidential Matching Committee fund. Sure that got a little bit

859
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: more attention.

860
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 2: But anyway, the right way I think to think about

861
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 2: it is that there's a much more fundamental trade off

862
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 2: going on between whether we want to have a robust

863
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 2: industrial economy or whether we want to just encourage our

864
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 2: corporations to go elsewhere and send back the cheapest possible stuff.

865
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 2: And so, yes, one implication of making a different choice

866
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 2: in that regard would be that some things might cost mole.

867
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,479
Speaker 2: But the choice you're making is not well, I feel

868
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:59,839
Speaker 2: good about it saying made in America, so I will pay,

869
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,240
Speaker 2: or the trade offf you're making is about the basic

870
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 2: kind of country that you want to have, and I

871
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 2: think the best way to think about that trade off

872
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 2: is to recognize that we took one side of it

873
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 2: back in you know, the nineteen nineties, and then two

874
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 2: thousand we said making things doesn't matter. We want the

875
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:24,440
Speaker 2: cheapest possible stuff go. And we have now seen the

876
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 2: results of that over the past few decades, and I

877
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 2: think the vast majority of Americans are looking at as

878
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 2: an at that as an unwise choice. And so my

879
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 2: claim is not that people want to pay more to

880
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 2: feel good about a made in America label.

881
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 1: It's that you want to know they may say that,

882
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 1: even if they say it in a poll, that's right,

883
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 1: but that's not going to behave that way.

884
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 2: The question is that what trade off do they want

885
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 2: to make about the kind of nation we are?

886
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 1: Right?

887
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 2: And there I think it's absolutely correct that that most

888
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 2: people regret the trade off that was made and would

889
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:57,760
Speaker 2: like to see us making a different one.

890
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 1: So you believe you can still unwind this sure with

891
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 1: how without too much damage to the economy? And I

892
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 1: say this, how do you do it without? And let

893
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: me give you an example. What happens to the Mercedes

894
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:16,360
Speaker 1: and BMW factories in the South, and what would happen

895
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,760
Speaker 1: to a foreign company that wants to make something here

896
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 1: in the way you would implement tarif pols.

897
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,759
Speaker 2: Well, that's terrific, that's what we want more of. And

898
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: again that's where I think you put China to the

899
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 2: side where we need to more be decoupling from China.

900
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,840
Speaker 2: We don't need China setting up its factories in the US.

901
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 2: But the auto industry, I think is actually probably the

902
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 2: best illustration of what we're talking about here, because you

903
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 2: have a very concrete case study going back to the

904
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 2: early nineteen eighties when Ronald Reagan comes into office, and

905
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:53,839
Speaker 2: that's exactly when you had these cheaper, smaller, more fuel

906
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 2: efficient Japanese vehicles flooding the market, posing sort of a

907
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 2: mortal challenge to the big three in Detroit. Now, what

908
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 2: did Reagan do? Did he say, Well, free trade is wonderful.

909
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:07,839
Speaker 2: So that's it. We're just not going to have an

910
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:12,279
Speaker 2: auto industry anymore. No, backed up by a threat, a

911
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 2: very credible threat of tariffs coming from Congress, Reagan negotiated

912
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:20,919
Speaker 2: with the Japanese and the Japanese actually adopted what it's

913
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 2: called a voluntary export restraint. The Japanese said, this is

914
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 2: not sustainable. We don't want to go down the path

915
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 2: of trade war and tariffs that were headed toward. We

916
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: are going to tell our own producers stop importing into

917
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 2: the US market and go set up shop in the

918
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: US instead. And that is why Honda and Toyota and

919
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:47,400
Speaker 2: then Nissan moved into the American South, ultimately leading to

920
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 2: tens of billions of dollars in investment, hundreds of thousands

921
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 2: of jobs. And now you have, yes Japanese you know,

922
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 2: name plates on a lot of cars driving around in

923
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 2: the US. But the Toyota Camry has more American made

924
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: content in it than a car from anybody coming, you know,

925
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 2: any of the Detroit manufacturers. And so that I think

926
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:11,839
Speaker 2: is that is exactly what you see the Trump administration

927
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:16,439
Speaker 2: now trying to do with these negotiations. Say to these countries, Look,

928
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 2: this old system of you just produce and we just

929
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 2: buy and you get back kind of ownership of the

930
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 2: United States is over. Let's talk about what you guys

931
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 2: can do to actually move us toward a balanced trading system.

932
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 2: And Stephen Mirian, who's the chair of the Council of

933
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:38,200
Speaker 2: Economic Advisors, gave a very good speech a couple of

934
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 2: weeks ago at the Hudsons too, where he talked about

935
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,840
Speaker 2: exactly this set of things. This is a perfect example

936
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 2: of what what these countries can do is tell their

937
00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 2: corporations and use policy changes in their own countries to say,

938
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 2: we understand, we have reached the end of the road

939
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 2: on this model because the US is not going to

940
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 2: accept it any more. Go invest in the United States.

941
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: And just like the Japanese could build cars every bit

942
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:11,760
Speaker 2: as effectively with the same quality at the same price

943
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:15,040
Speaker 2: in the United States as they've been doing in Japan.

944
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 2: There's all manner of things that we are currently buying

945
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:23,240
Speaker 2: from abroad that could instead be built in the United States.

946
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 2: We're seeing it right now with Chips TSMCT I want

947
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 2: a semiconductor it's already in that. You know, commit about

948
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 2: sixty five billion in investment. They've just announced another one

949
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 2: hundred billion. The most fascinating thing is they've actually they've

950
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 2: said so far the yield, the sort of quality and

951
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 2: efficiency of their production in Arizona is higher than it

952
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 2: is in Taiwan. So we can do these things. It's

953
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:47,839
Speaker 2: a question of whether it's the trade off we want

954
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 2: to make and the policy we want to pursue.

955
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 1: How about low basically low cost manufacturing, right, whether it's

956
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 1: t shirts or trinkets or or whatever you want to

957
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:59,760
Speaker 1: look at. But I want you to answer that question.

958
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,760
Speaker 1: There's a lot of small business owners that are American

959
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:06,319
Speaker 1: business owners where they order most of their you know,

960
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 1: here's an American business who's most of their inventory comes

961
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 1: from Asia, but their parent American taxes all of those things.

962
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:16,839
Speaker 1: They're going to get hurt and a lot of these

963
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 1: businesses are going to go under because they really don't

964
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 1: have an alternative, even even if there's eventually an alternative

965
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: way for them to stay in business. Right now, they're

966
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 1: not right. It's the shock they're you know, our supply

967
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 1: chains are really efficient and all of this stuff. What

968
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:39,760
Speaker 1: happens to that sort of low cost manufacturing product, and

969
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:43,160
Speaker 1: you know, the the hundreds of small, thousands of small

970
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:46,320
Speaker 1: businesses that are counting on that inventory coming from Asia.

971
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 2: Well, I guess I would separate a couple of different

972
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:53,839
Speaker 2: issues there. One is I totally agree that you need

973
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:57,439
Speaker 2: that phasing period. You need to give companies a time

974
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 2: time to adjust. And that's why I say, you know,

975
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 2: high tariffs on day one, Yes, that causes some of

976
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 2: those tiy.

977
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:06,880
Speaker 1: The way are you concerned that your idea here is

978
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:09,399
Speaker 1: going to get drowned by poor implementation.

979
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 2: You know, that is a sort of endemic risk in policy,

980
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 2: in the in the policy wonkery I have chosen to

981
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 2: engage in for my career, I'm always, on one hand hesitant.

982
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 2: I think you always have to accept imperfect implementation.

983
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 1: I think it's all positions are imperfect by nature.

984
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:30,800
Speaker 2: That's right. The guy who kind of publishes his white

985
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:34,320
Speaker 2: papers and then says like, oh, well, that's not exactly

986
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:36,359
Speaker 2: what was in the white paper. Therefore, I, you know,

987
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:39,439
Speaker 2: disown it. I don't have a lot of time for

988
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 2: On the flip side, I do think when you're at

989
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 2: the level of sort of the core concepts of what

990
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 2: are we trying to do here, especially in this sort

991
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:51,960
Speaker 2: of situation, you have to get the balance of costs

992
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 2: and benefits right, Because I think the right way to

993
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 2: think about this ultimately is we're talking about an investment.

994
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 2: We're talking about what what kinds of costs should we

995
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 2: incur in the short run because we think it is

996
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:06,960
Speaker 2: going to pay dividends in terms of something better in

997
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:10,759
Speaker 2: the long run. And when you're doing that, and whether

998
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 2: you know, in the private sector, as well, if you're

999
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 2: thinking about an investment, whether you keep the costs low

1000
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 2: upfront and whether you deliver those high benefits in the

1001
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:23,799
Speaker 2: long run is what determines whether you're happy with the

1002
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,719
Speaker 2: investment or not. And so here I think the right

1003
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 2: way to understand the risk or the concern is that

1004
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 2: if you pursue the policy in a way that adds

1005
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 2: a lot of unnecessary costs upfront, and if you do

1006
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,799
Speaker 2: it in a way that does not deliver as many

1007
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 2: benefits in the long run because you don't create the

1008
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:48,799
Speaker 2: certainty and so you don't get the investment, then it's

1009
00:55:48,880 --> 00:55:51,800
Speaker 2: just you're not going to be happy with the tradal

1010
00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:54,719
Speaker 2: And so I think even the way that Trump administration

1011
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 2: has implemented things so far, you can get some of

1012
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:02,360
Speaker 2: that reshorting, you can get things brought back to the

1013
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:06,439
Speaker 2: United States. But the way that I'm hoping, I hope

1014
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 2: people will think about it, and I'm encouraged to see

1015
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 2: the administration increasingly thinking about it, is to recognize that

1016
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 2: whether or not you're you're happy with the deal at

1017
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 2: the end of the day, whether or not it was

1018
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 2: a good policy to pursue depends on whether you do

1019
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 2: it on a way in a way that keeps those

1020
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 2: costs down and that maximizes those benefits. And so that's

1021
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:29,279
Speaker 2: where that example of the small business is a really

1022
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 2: good one. Can you do this in a way that

1023
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 2: that doesn't cause those sorts of disruptions or at least

1024
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 2: minimizes those disruptions, and you can, and I think we're

1025
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 2: moving toward it, but I think certainly right now we

1026
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 2: are seeing too much disruption.

1027
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 1: How do you measure as an economist, how do you measure?

1028
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 1: There's certain parts of a free trade agreement that are

1029
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 1: as where the benefit is security, which is not necessarily

1030
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: a measurable right. You can't put a number on it.

1031
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 1: But look, you know, you know there's there's plenty of

1032
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:08,759
Speaker 1: wars in our past that had been triggered by by

1033
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:14,759
Speaker 1: trade disputes, so this is not an unusual thing. But

1034
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 1: good relations with a country on on the economic front

1035
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 1: can provide important security agreements. So maybe the point is

1036
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 1: is that a trade deficit might be worth it because

1037
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:32,520
Speaker 1: of a security trade off. Right, how do you factor

1038
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: that in in into your thinking? Because you know that

1039
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 1: some of that is the motivation for some of the

1040
00:57:38,680 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 1: trade agreements that we do cut Like you know, I

1041
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 1: take the Colombian Free Trade Agreement. I felt like that

1042
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 1: was one that we escalated, and we accelerated as much

1043
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 1: of trying to make sure Colombia didn't slip. Right. This

1044
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:56,440
Speaker 1: was a democracy that was on the move, coming towards us,

1045
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 1: if you will, right away from its from its from

1046
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 1: its from its drug past and things like that. So

1047
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 1: we were really trying to help them. How do you

1048
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 1: factor that into your equations of trying to come up

1049
00:58:08,440 --> 00:58:10,200
Speaker 1: with a fair with fair trade practices.

1050
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 2: It's a great question, but it's funny because I thought

1051
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 2: you were going to go in the exactly opposite direction,

1052
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 2: which is that a lot of the value of security

1053
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:23,800
Speaker 2: for the United States is something that we don't take

1054
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 2: into account when we're doing our economic analyzes. Right that,

1055
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 2: in trying to value all the benefits of the cheap stuff,

1056
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:36,520
Speaker 2: the costs of no longer being able to make essential goods,

1057
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 2: no longer being able to.

1058
00:58:37,800 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 1: The pandemic was an eye open look. The pandemic I

1059
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:42,840
Speaker 1: think opened some people and more where China could have.

1060
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 1: You know, if they really wanted to make us suffer,

1061
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 1: they could have, right, and they chose not to because

1062
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 1: they were suffering. You know, they had their own issues.

1063
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 2: Well, so there's the sort of resilience point for all

1064
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 2: sorts of goods, and then there's specifically what you do

1065
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 2: to the defense industrial base. You know, we're seeing in

1066
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 2: the Ukraine context, our ability to even manufacture the kinds

1067
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 2: of weapons you know, you need to help support another

1068
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:10,480
Speaker 2: country in a you know, limited land or elsewhere. You

1069
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 2: look at the sort of modeling of how long could

1070
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 2: the US actually sustain a conflict in the Taiwan Straits,

1071
00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 2: for instance, what you see is, you know, and you

1072
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: look at our ability to build ships or maintain submarines

1073
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 2: or we've hollowed all that out, and none of that

1074
00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:29,880
Speaker 2: gets measured in the economic analysis of free trade either.

1075
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:33,120
Speaker 2: So that being said, the point you make is also

1076
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:35,680
Speaker 2: a good one, which is that there's real upside benefit

1077
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 2: to these kinds of trade agreements. And you know, I

1078
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 2: think the two things I would say about it. One

1079
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 2: is I think that's a perfectly reasonable case, but it's

1080
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 2: one that we should acknowledge and break out in the

1081
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:52,960
Speaker 2: analysis that too much of the discussion in recent decades

1082
00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 2: has just been Look, this is a win win win,

1083
00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 2: like it advances this foreign policy objective that we have,

1084
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 2: but also it's really great for American workers, and if

1085
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:08,120
Speaker 2: that's not actually true, then don't sell it that way.

1086
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 2: If you have a you know, we don't say we're

1087
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 2: going to go to war in this place, but that's okay,

1088
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 2: it's really great for the soldiers too. There's a baseline

1089
01:00:19,920 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 2: level of honesty that is necessary, among other things, if

1090
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:27,840
Speaker 2: you want to sustain political support for making those kinds

1091
01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 2: of trade offs. So if we want to say, look,

1092
01:00:29,840 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 2: we're actually going to use our economic policy, our trade

1093
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:36,960
Speaker 2: policy to support developing countries that you know, we think

1094
01:00:37,000 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 2: that that really makes a difference for Columbia, That makes

1095
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 2: a difference from you know, some other country in our

1096
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 2: hemisphere that has real benefits for us. Great, but make

1097
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 2: the case on those terms, and then notice that that

1098
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 2: case doesn't hold up when you're looking at those situations

1099
01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 2: where trade is actually causing us problems, which is with

1100
01:00:56,400 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 2: those other major countries, right, it's not our trade relationship

1101
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 2: with Columbia. Again, putting aside, if they become a way

1102
01:01:03,800 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: for other countries to cheat, that is causing the distress.

1103
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:12,479
Speaker 2: And on the flip side, you can't say I don't think, well, look,

1104
01:01:12,520 --> 01:01:17,840
Speaker 2: obviously we have to treat Japan this way because you know, otherwise,

1105
01:01:19,240 --> 01:01:21,320
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what the otherwise is. I think the

1106
01:01:21,360 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 2: reality is that the.

1107
01:01:23,000 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 1: Well we certainly want. Look, we want Japan and our

1108
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 1: sphere of influence and not China's we want, but you know,

1109
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 1: in our sphere of influence, you.

1110
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:31,840
Speaker 2: Know who else, you know, who else wants Japan in

1111
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 2: our sphere of influence and not China's Japan.

1112
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:40,160
Speaker 1: I think they do, but we make it really hard

1113
01:01:40,200 --> 01:01:42,960
Speaker 1: for them. I mean, you know, eventually, money, whether we

1114
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 1: like it or not. You know, it's amazing how how

1115
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:50,880
Speaker 1: the pocket book will change a voter's mind. Just look

1116
01:01:50,960 --> 01:01:53,720
Speaker 1: north of the border. Right in a ninety day period,

1117
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 1: we saw what happened north of the border. So you know,

1118
01:01:56,720 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 1: I don't know if anything should be seen as permanent

1119
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:00,920
Speaker 1: when it comes to our some of these relationships that

1120
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:01,160
Speaker 1: we have.

1121
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:05,840
Speaker 2: Well, I certainly agree that the relationships aren't permanent, but

1122
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:09,720
Speaker 2: I think that you can step back and assess the

1123
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:15,040
Speaker 2: actual calculations that other countries are facing. And you know,

1124
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 2: I think the United States should treat allies barely and

1125
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 2: transparently and so forth.

1126
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 1: Shouldn't they get a better deal? In your mind? Is

1127
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 1: it should our allies get a better deal than those

1128
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:30,280
Speaker 1: that are either unaligned or adversarial.

1129
01:02:31,120 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 2: Oh. Absolutely, that's a core premise of I think the

1130
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:38,800
Speaker 2: direction we're headed, and it's right.

1131
01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:41,360
Speaker 1: Well, that was I think the frustration at first is

1132
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 1: that is not how the policy was initially rolled out,

1133
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:46,680
Speaker 1: which I think is why so many of our trade

1134
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:48,480
Speaker 1: closest trade partners freaked out.

1135
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:52,400
Speaker 2: So I think that's a fair point about the freak out.

1136
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 2: I think it's important to say that in terms of

1137
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 2: where I think the administration is trying to go. And again,

1138
01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 2: I think another fair criticism is they haven't been clear

1139
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 2: enough and conveying where they're trying to go. But you know,

1140
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 2: piecing together those comments they do make and the action

1141
01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:12,000
Speaker 2: that they've taken, it seems to me that the direction

1142
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 2: that they want to head is one in which there's

1143
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 2: a much better deal for countries that are sort of

1144
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 2: in the US sphere as opposed to those that are not.

1145
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 2: The difference from the past where I think we're really

1146
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,959
Speaker 2: departing is that in the past, especially post Cold War,

1147
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 2: we didn't really ask much of anything because we were

1148
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 2: presiding over this liberal world order. Everybody got the full deal, right,

1149
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 2: China got open access to our market just as much

1150
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 2: as Japan did, and what we are starting to shift

1151
01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:49,080
Speaker 2: towards world where we say, actually, the US has some

1152
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:52,320
Speaker 2: things that it wants to and those have to be

1153
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:56,000
Speaker 2: fair and reasonable things. But I think the things that

1154
01:03:56,040 --> 01:04:00,000
Speaker 2: the Trump administration is gesturing toward are fair and reasonable.

1155
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:04,400
Speaker 2: So take the balance trade point, Yeah, that seems pretty fair.

1156
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 2: The US isn't saying we demand that we now reverse

1157
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:09,920
Speaker 2: things and we get to build up our industry at

1158
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:13,240
Speaker 2: your expense. They're saying, let's have a trading relationship that

1159
01:04:13,400 --> 01:04:16,960
Speaker 2: isn't bigger thy neighbor. Let's have one where everybody can

1160
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 2: have a healthy manufacturing sector and trade stuff for stuff,

1161
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 2: and we will hold ourselves to that too.

1162
01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 1: Do you accept the premise that the the more trade

1163
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 1: there is across borders, the less chance of war?

1164
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:34,600
Speaker 2: Not necessarily. I think there are certainly situations where that

1165
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 2: can be a healthy thing.

1166
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:39,680
Speaker 1: Because I don't let's the essential argument. Critics of this

1167
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,520
Speaker 1: are making that, Hey, look at the post World War

1168
01:04:42,560 --> 01:04:47,360
Speaker 1: two right to now. You know, yes, there's certainly been

1169
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 1: pockets of up of you know, we've had a war here,

1170
01:04:51,280 --> 01:04:53,680
Speaker 1: war there, but we haven't had a global war. Right.

1171
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:59,720
Speaker 1: Can you can you credit more open and for youer

1172
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 1: trade with that, I don't think so.

1173
01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:05,440
Speaker 2: I mean, most of that period you're referring to was

1174
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 2: the Cold War, where we didn't have open and free trade.

1175
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 2: Obviously we had two competing blocks, and there was a

1176
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:18,440
Speaker 2: totally different set of security factors in particular that that

1177
01:05:18,520 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 2: sort of maintained that balance. Then we moved onto the

1178
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 2: post Cold War period where you know, I appreciate your

1179
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:29,520
Speaker 2: sort of casual description of a war here and a

1180
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:30,080
Speaker 2: war there.

1181
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:32,640
Speaker 1: No, and I'm not trying to dismiss the smaller wars,

1182
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:33,960
Speaker 1: but we haven't had a world war.

1183
01:05:34,440 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 2: Well, it's hard to it's hard to think of what

1184
01:05:36,320 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 2: a world war even would look like in a context

1185
01:05:38,600 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 2: where the US was so much more dominant than any

1186
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: other country. We had this period of hegemony and you know,

1187
01:05:46,600 --> 01:05:51,920
Speaker 2: kind of the unipolar era was was a very strange moment,

1188
01:05:52,800 --> 01:05:55,720
Speaker 2: and it's one that's that's we are moving on from

1189
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:59,360
Speaker 2: as China rises into being a peer competitor. Now. I

1190
01:05:59,360 --> 01:06:01,120
Speaker 2: don't think that guarantees we have to have a war

1191
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:03,520
Speaker 2: with China, right, we never really had a war with

1192
01:06:03,640 --> 01:06:07,280
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union. But I think you know, again as

1193
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:09,360
Speaker 2: with the claim that like well, the economy is bigger

1194
01:06:09,400 --> 01:06:12,320
Speaker 2: so it must be because globalization is good. I think

1195
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:14,439
Speaker 2: the idea that, like, well, we haven't had a world

1196
01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:17,480
Speaker 2: war since the nineteen forties, it must be because globalization

1197
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 2: is good is the sort of like comically over simple

1198
01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:26,400
Speaker 2: analysis that the exact same people making it.

1199
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:28,080
Speaker 1: We must not be in the internet. You must not

1200
01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:31,280
Speaker 1: be in the internet, comically overly simplified arguments or what

1201
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: make the internet go for right?

1202
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 2: But this is my point, is that that it is

1203
01:06:35,600 --> 01:06:38,640
Speaker 2: the sort of capital v very serious people who are

1204
01:06:38,640 --> 01:06:42,160
Speaker 2: making this argument because it happens to prop up this

1205
01:06:42,240 --> 01:06:45,800
Speaker 2: ideological preference they had. If they had a different ideological preference,

1206
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 2: they would be laughing this argument out of the room too.

1207
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:51,200
Speaker 1: Well, let me go with this because look, I think

1208
01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:54,160
Speaker 1: I think many Americans share the goal of yes, we

1209
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:56,680
Speaker 1: want you know there. You know, I mean my dad

1210
01:06:56,680 --> 01:07:00,280
Speaker 1: grew up in Waterloo, Iowa, and you know Waterloo is

1211
01:07:00,440 --> 01:07:03,000
Speaker 1: I don't like it that one of their largest employers

1212
01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:04,920
Speaker 1: is a casino now right, It used to be in

1213
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:08,959
Speaker 1: a meatpacking company. John Deere was not far away. John

1214
01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:10,920
Speaker 1: Deer probably makes as many tractors in China as they

1215
01:07:10,960 --> 01:07:13,560
Speaker 1: do in the United States these days. So I get that.

1216
01:07:13,640 --> 01:07:17,160
Speaker 1: And there's a there's I'd like to see that what's realistic?

1217
01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:19,800
Speaker 1: Because you talked about all the different things we could

1218
01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:24,240
Speaker 1: reindustrialize here, obviously we should prioritize what we plan to

1219
01:07:24,280 --> 01:07:27,600
Speaker 1: reindustrialize because we may not even have enough workers to

1220
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,960
Speaker 1: bring everything back that maybe some people would like to

1221
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:35,960
Speaker 1: see come back. So be realistic with me here, what's

1222
01:07:36,200 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: viable in reindustrializing in the United States and what probably isn't.

1223
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:45,880
Speaker 2: It's a good question, and it's a place where I

1224
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:49,320
Speaker 2: think ideally we actually do look more to the market.

1225
01:07:50,520 --> 01:07:52,240
Speaker 2: You know, this is one of the places where I

1226
01:07:52,280 --> 01:07:57,080
Speaker 2: think you still see a really interesting divergence between the

1227
01:07:57,320 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 2: kind of right of center focus on reindustrialization and the

1228
01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:03,000
Speaker 2: left of center focus, because there's obviously a lot of

1229
01:08:03,000 --> 01:08:07,440
Speaker 2: commonalities in some of the pushes on these fronts, but

1230
01:08:07,520 --> 01:08:09,280
Speaker 2: I think what you see from the left of center

1231
01:08:09,360 --> 01:08:11,680
Speaker 2: is much more a sense of, Okay, here's our list

1232
01:08:11,920 --> 01:08:14,360
Speaker 2: of the ten things we're going to reindustrialize, and here's

1233
01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:16,160
Speaker 2: kind of the program to do each of them.

1234
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:20,040
Speaker 1: Right. Chips would fall into that. Right like that, Well,

1235
01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:21,080
Speaker 1: so right is right?

1236
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:23,000
Speaker 2: This is the interesting point. Chips is sort of the

1237
01:08:23,000 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 2: one exception you've seen thus far where Republicans also, you know,

1238
01:08:26,439 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 2: is obviously not unanimous, but by partisan.

1239
01:08:29,080 --> 01:08:30,920
Speaker 1: It's a national I think there's a lot of national

1240
01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:33,880
Speaker 1: security woven into that, right, Yes, so it makes it

1241
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:36,160
Speaker 1: it almost makes it easier to get the bipartisan support.

1242
01:08:36,200 --> 01:08:36,519
Speaker 1: That's right.

1243
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:39,479
Speaker 2: There's both national security and there's an economic analysis where

1244
01:08:39,479 --> 01:08:42,120
Speaker 2: I don't think anybody doubts that chips are going to

1245
01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:45,920
Speaker 2: be very important to the next fifty years. And so

1246
01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:48,280
Speaker 2: I think that's what we want to see. Certainly, what

1247
01:08:48,320 --> 01:08:50,200
Speaker 2: I want to see is that kind of you know,

1248
01:08:50,200 --> 01:08:54,080
Speaker 2: it gets called industrial policy used in a targeted way

1249
01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:56,920
Speaker 2: for some things that we really know are important in

1250
01:08:56,920 --> 01:08:59,240
Speaker 2: a way that the market won't take into account. So

1251
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 2: chips is example. You now see the same thing with

1252
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:08,040
Speaker 2: ship building. Conveniently enough ships to rhyme with chips. There's

1253
01:09:08,160 --> 01:09:11,240
Speaker 2: bipartis in legislation on that too, because again purely from

1254
01:09:11,280 --> 01:09:14,400
Speaker 2: a national security perspective, you do need to be able

1255
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:17,719
Speaker 2: to build ships. And so I think we'll see some

1256
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,400
Speaker 2: some targeted areas like that where.

1257
01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: Basically the entire defense industrial complex arguably, you know, you know,

1258
01:09:25,160 --> 01:09:28,080
Speaker 1: we should always want that made everything made here as

1259
01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:28,960
Speaker 1: much as possible.

1260
01:09:29,600 --> 01:09:32,519
Speaker 2: Yes, And and an interesting corollary of that, we just

1261
01:09:32,560 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 2: did a big project on this, said American Compass, is

1262
01:09:35,479 --> 01:09:37,439
Speaker 2: that the idea that you can kind of just protect

1263
01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:41,000
Speaker 2: the defense industrial base but not the broader industrial base

1264
01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:44,920
Speaker 2: has has proven to be false.

1265
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:47,400
Speaker 1: You don't think you can separate the two, and that

1266
01:09:47,400 --> 01:09:49,759
Speaker 1: that's a that might be a mistake because the left.

1267
01:09:50,160 --> 01:09:52,840
Speaker 1: What you're arguing here is defense is probably one of

1268
01:09:52,840 --> 01:09:55,800
Speaker 1: those areas whatever. But yes, let's do that, right, But

1269
01:09:55,880 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 1: you're saying you don't think you can disaggregate the defense

1270
01:09:59,160 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 1: industrial base from the from the commercial industrial base.

1271
01:10:02,479 --> 01:10:05,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. And ultimately, what we've seen is that

1272
01:10:05,439 --> 01:10:07,920
Speaker 2: when you try to, you end up with this set

1273
01:10:07,920 --> 01:10:10,800
Speaker 2: of companies that isn't being asked to actually compete in

1274
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:13,760
Speaker 2: the market at all. They are only right and so

1275
01:10:13,800 --> 01:10:14,640
Speaker 2: the irony.

1276
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:17,479
Speaker 1: Is, trust me, this is my beef with Boeing, right,

1277
01:10:17,560 --> 01:10:19,960
Speaker 1: you know what's you know, I think the reason why

1278
01:10:20,000 --> 01:10:25,280
Speaker 1: Boeing is producing has uneven products, right, Some products work well,

1279
01:10:25,360 --> 01:10:28,400
Speaker 1: some don't. The lack of competition, right. You know, when

1280
01:10:28,439 --> 01:10:29,880
Speaker 1: I was growing up, I think I'm a little bit

1281
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:31,960
Speaker 1: older than you are. You know, we have three or

1282
01:10:31,960 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 1: four different plane manufacturers and they did have to compete

1283
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:38,559
Speaker 1: for defense contracts and the Delta Airlines contract, right, yes,

1284
01:10:38,760 --> 01:10:42,759
Speaker 1: And now there's you know there's commercially, there's Boeing an airbus, okay,

1285
01:10:43,560 --> 01:10:46,599
Speaker 1: but on some of these defense things, and I think

1286
01:10:46,640 --> 01:10:49,439
Speaker 1: Boeing has been harmed by lack of competition, right, I

1287
01:10:49,439 --> 01:10:51,519
Speaker 1: think Boeing isn't as good because.

1288
01:10:51,320 --> 01:10:54,200
Speaker 2: Of Yes, totally agree. And so I think if if

1289
01:10:54,280 --> 01:10:57,920
Speaker 2: you if you buy into the Trump administration vision of

1290
01:10:57,960 --> 01:10:59,680
Speaker 2: where we're trying to go, which is we want to

1291
01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:04,400
Speaker 2: have an economic and security alliance. China is out. Countries

1292
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:08,240
Speaker 2: that want to align with China are out, but market democracies,

1293
01:11:08,320 --> 01:11:12,599
Speaker 2: countries that would prefer to be with us to accept

1294
01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:17,120
Speaker 2: a commitment to balance trade, probably more security spending, except

1295
01:11:17,120 --> 01:11:20,280
Speaker 2: that they too are going to keep China out. That's

1296
01:11:20,320 --> 01:11:24,599
Speaker 2: a very big, healthy, robust market. And if we get

1297
01:11:24,600 --> 01:11:27,320
Speaker 2: everybody to agree in that context that we're going.

1298
01:11:27,240 --> 01:11:31,400
Speaker 1: Back to India specifically, is what makes India swing country.

1299
01:11:31,040 --> 01:11:34,000
Speaker 2: Here, by the way, that's right. And you know, both

1300
01:11:34,040 --> 01:11:39,000
Speaker 2: India and Japan are countries that especially strongly would like

1301
01:11:39,080 --> 01:11:44,360
Speaker 2: to not be in the Chinese sphere. And so I

1302
01:11:44,360 --> 01:11:46,200
Speaker 2: think that's actly right. If you know you have the

1303
01:11:46,240 --> 01:11:50,280
Speaker 2: North American core, you have Japan, Korea, India. I think

1304
01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:54,400
Speaker 2: you certainly have the Anglo sphere, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand,

1305
01:11:55,320 --> 01:11:57,880
Speaker 2: Europe you'd mentioned earlier. I think is a much more

1306
01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:01,080
Speaker 2: interesting case. We could do a whole separate discussion just

1307
01:12:01,200 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 2: about that. But if that is sort of your market

1308
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:08,880
Speaker 2: and you have a commitment within that market to balance trade,

1309
01:12:09,600 --> 01:12:12,840
Speaker 2: at that point, I think you can mostly say, then

1310
01:12:12,880 --> 01:12:15,040
Speaker 2: go ahead, invest where you want to invest if there

1311
01:12:15,080 --> 01:12:16,160
Speaker 2: are things that are better made.

1312
01:12:16,200 --> 01:12:19,160
Speaker 1: So we may not re industrialize as that much here,

1313
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:25,439
Speaker 1: but we may limit where companies do manufacture outside our

1314
01:12:25,439 --> 01:12:29,280
Speaker 1: sphere as long as they're manufacturing with in friendly territory essentially.

1315
01:12:29,040 --> 01:12:31,599
Speaker 2: Right, Well, you know, getting to balance trade would mean

1316
01:12:31,680 --> 01:12:35,040
Speaker 2: massive reindustrialization. You know, if we have a trillion dollar

1317
01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:38,000
Speaker 2: a year trade depsit now you're talking about it, trillion

1318
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:42,439
Speaker 2: dollars a year more production to level that out.

1319
01:12:42,439 --> 01:12:43,800
Speaker 1: How long do you think it's going to take us

1320
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:45,800
Speaker 1: to do that? I mean, is that a ten year

1321
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:49,200
Speaker 1: project in your and that's realistic? Is ten years? Right?

1322
01:12:49,200 --> 01:12:52,599
Speaker 1: That's a that is a lot to ask the American consumer.

1323
01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:56,599
Speaker 2: It is a lot to ask. On the other hand,

1324
01:12:56,600 --> 01:12:59,240
Speaker 2: I would say ten years is not very long at all.

1325
01:13:00,000 --> 01:13:01,600
Speaker 1: I mean, keep in mind, to those of us that

1326
01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 1: studied numbers, yes I agree with you, but the real

1327
01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:05,840
Speaker 1: world it's it's tough.

1328
01:13:06,320 --> 01:13:08,679
Speaker 2: I mean even keep in mind, ten years ago wasn't

1329
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:11,920
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety five. Ten years ago was twenty fifteen. Right,

1330
01:13:12,040 --> 01:13:15,280
Speaker 2: if when Donald Trump had first come down the Golden Escalator,

1331
01:13:15,840 --> 01:13:18,200
Speaker 2: we were actually starting in on this project, we would

1332
01:13:18,240 --> 01:13:20,840
Speaker 2: already be at the end of the ten years and

1333
01:13:20,920 --> 01:13:21,840
Speaker 2: so I think.

1334
01:13:21,800 --> 01:13:25,000
Speaker 1: Well, some would argue TPP could have accelerated the isolation

1335
01:13:25,040 --> 01:13:28,280
Speaker 1: of China, but I don't want to start that debate.

1336
01:13:29,200 --> 01:13:30,719
Speaker 2: We'll do a whole other one on yours.

1337
01:13:30,760 --> 01:13:32,800
Speaker 1: I could do that that. I mean, I look at

1338
01:13:32,840 --> 01:13:36,519
Speaker 1: TPP as one of the great mistakes of what happens

1339
01:13:36,560 --> 01:13:42,480
Speaker 1: when populism hijacks both political parties. But you know, I'm

1340
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:47,000
Speaker 1: I always saw TPP, not as a trade agreement, as

1341
01:13:47,040 --> 01:13:49,680
Speaker 1: a check on China, and I just think we blew it.

1342
01:13:50,120 --> 01:13:53,800
Speaker 2: I completely agree with that piece of the argument. I

1343
01:13:53,800 --> 01:13:58,040
Speaker 2: think the counter argument is that TPP would have sort

1344
01:13:58,080 --> 01:14:04,560
Speaker 2: of solidified the imbalance within the remaining block. That is,

1345
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:08,000
Speaker 2: it would have entirely validated the approach of a Japan

1346
01:14:08,120 --> 01:14:15,599
Speaker 2: of a Korea to use trading agreements in a way

1347
01:14:15,640 --> 01:14:19,840
Speaker 2: that benefited their manufacturers at the expense of American producers.

1348
01:14:20,680 --> 01:14:24,960
Speaker 2: So again, last you said, very much more difficult conversation,

1349
01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:26,320
Speaker 2: I think, and.

1350
01:14:26,240 --> 01:14:28,080
Speaker 1: I'm well aware of time here. I've taken up a

1351
01:14:28,080 --> 01:14:31,040
Speaker 1: lot of it. Well says another forty five minutes. That's right.

1352
01:14:31,080 --> 01:14:33,800
Speaker 2: So just to wrap up maybe on to just on

1353
01:14:33,840 --> 01:14:36,519
Speaker 2: this point, you know, is ten years a long time, Yes,

1354
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:40,080
Speaker 2: it's a long time. You know. The chips is a

1355
01:14:40,080 --> 01:14:43,360
Speaker 2: great example where we started back in twenty twenty with

1356
01:14:43,439 --> 01:14:46,720
Speaker 2: the idea of the legislation for what became chips and

1357
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:49,679
Speaker 2: we are on track to actually, you know, we're just starting.

1358
01:14:49,720 --> 01:14:52,759
Speaker 2: Things are coming online now over a ten year window

1359
01:14:52,840 --> 01:14:55,639
Speaker 2: to really have rebuilt a chips industry in this country

1360
01:14:56,600 --> 01:14:59,719
Speaker 2: in a way that thus far consumers haven't been bothered

1361
01:14:59,720 --> 01:15:00,360
Speaker 2: by a at all.

1362
01:15:01,000 --> 01:15:02,800
Speaker 1: And so if you if you do things in a way,

1363
01:15:02,800 --> 01:15:04,640
Speaker 1: but it didn't end up punishing China the way we

1364
01:15:04,680 --> 01:15:07,720
Speaker 1: thought it would China. You know, it's you know what

1365
01:15:07,800 --> 01:15:09,879
Speaker 1: is it? Necessity is the mother of all innovation.

1366
01:15:11,160 --> 01:15:13,559
Speaker 2: Well, I think that's an important point actually, and it

1367
01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:16,280
Speaker 2: goes to the current conflict we have with China. Even

1368
01:15:16,320 --> 01:15:19,680
Speaker 2: just on these current tariffs, which isn't especially constructive, I

1369
01:15:19,680 --> 01:15:22,240
Speaker 2: would say on any side, which is that I don't

1370
01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:24,680
Speaker 2: think it's practical for the long term view to be that,

1371
01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:27,320
Speaker 2: you know, the US is going to pursue a policy

1372
01:15:27,360 --> 01:15:31,000
Speaker 2: that somehow you know, holds China down. China is going

1373
01:15:31,000 --> 01:15:34,200
Speaker 2: to develop and be successful in all sorts of respects.

1374
01:15:35,600 --> 01:15:39,320
Speaker 2: The US needs to focus on addressing its own problems

1375
01:15:39,400 --> 01:15:41,280
Speaker 2: in a lot of ways, I would say. And so,

1376
01:15:42,360 --> 01:15:43,960
Speaker 2: whether it is in chips, whether it's in some of

1377
01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:48,479
Speaker 2: these other areas, whether it's just an investment generally, if

1378
01:15:48,479 --> 01:15:52,599
Speaker 2: we can get back on a pathway to reindustrializing, and

1379
01:15:52,640 --> 01:15:55,440
Speaker 2: we can do it a way where the disruptions are manageable,

1380
01:15:55,560 --> 01:15:56,720
Speaker 2: and we can do it a way where we get

1381
01:15:56,720 --> 01:16:00,000
Speaker 2: to start seeing the benefits, I think that's I think

1382
01:16:00,160 --> 01:16:01,599
Speaker 2: that's a very popular project.

1383
01:16:02,680 --> 01:16:05,200
Speaker 1: Aar and I've really enjoyed this conversation. And I didn't

1384
01:16:05,200 --> 01:16:09,160
Speaker 1: even get to because I know you're also one of

1385
01:16:09,160 --> 01:16:13,800
Speaker 1: the folks that it's an advocate of of Whether you

1386
01:16:13,840 --> 01:16:16,160
Speaker 1: call it the baby bonus, childcare tax credit, you know,

1387
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:20,120
Speaker 1: there's different names for it, but something to help families,

1388
01:16:20,120 --> 01:16:24,760
Speaker 1: to help young families. There's some fascinating policies that I think,

1389
01:16:25,479 --> 01:16:29,400
Speaker 1: you know, don't fit into the conventional left right argument

1390
01:16:29,439 --> 01:16:32,120
Speaker 1: that you come down on. And I just, frankly, I

1391
01:16:32,160 --> 01:16:35,280
Speaker 1: love having those conversations, and so I hope to have

1392
01:16:35,320 --> 01:16:35,679
Speaker 1: you back.

1393
01:16:36,160 --> 01:16:38,120
Speaker 2: I would love it. This was great, Thank you so much.

1394
01:16:44,600 --> 01:16:46,640
Speaker 1: All right, I hope you have a better understanding of

1395
01:16:46,960 --> 01:16:50,160
Speaker 1: the of what this tariff plan could have looked like.

1396
01:16:51,760 --> 01:16:54,400
Speaker 1: And we'll see if if you see a course correction

1397
01:16:55,800 --> 01:16:58,240
Speaker 1: or seem to think that we were in the middle

1398
01:16:58,280 --> 01:17:02,120
Speaker 1: of a course correction here and that perhaps not quite

1399
01:17:02,160 --> 01:17:07,439
Speaker 1: a do over, but perhaps the pullback. Now, let's see

1400
01:17:07,439 --> 01:17:10,320
Speaker 1: how all this goes. Does it give him an opportunity

1401
01:17:11,320 --> 01:17:14,920
Speaker 1: to do this in a more methodical way that maybe

1402
01:17:15,040 --> 01:17:19,519
Speaker 1: is slower in the implementation of the terrorists themselves, but

1403
01:17:19,640 --> 01:17:24,960
Speaker 1: actually brings business and brings the public along with I'm skeptical.

1404
01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:28,000
Speaker 1: One thing Donald Trump doesn't like to do is admit

1405
01:17:28,080 --> 01:17:32,000
Speaker 1: that he made a mistake. And he's been sort of

1406
01:17:32,000 --> 01:17:34,639
Speaker 1: playing whack a mole on this tariff business for some time.

1407
01:17:34,720 --> 01:17:37,720
Speaker 1: All Right, let me get you a few questions here,

1408
01:17:37,760 --> 01:17:43,160
Speaker 1: little ask Chuck, Ask Chuck. All right. This first question

1409
01:17:43,200 --> 01:17:46,439
Speaker 1: comes from Sarah and she writes, it feels like the

1410
01:17:46,439 --> 01:17:49,280
Speaker 1: guardrails of the executive branch have weakened, especially after the

1411
01:17:49,320 --> 01:17:54,280
Speaker 1: recent immunity ruling and various was it always this fragile? Also,

1412
01:17:54,320 --> 01:17:56,880
Speaker 1: what's your take on the rise of Resistance two point zero,

1413
01:17:56,880 --> 01:17:59,040
Speaker 1: whether it has real staying power? And then, on a

1414
01:17:59,080 --> 01:18:01,000
Speaker 1: lighter note, do you think Congress will ever address the

1415
01:18:01,080 --> 01:18:06,080
Speaker 1: chaos of the NCAA transfer portal? Love all of those questions. Look,

1416
01:18:06,960 --> 01:18:09,320
Speaker 1: you've heard me rail about the executive, the power of

1417
01:18:09,360 --> 01:18:14,160
Speaker 1: the executive branch. Ultimately, the courts are begging Congress to

1418
01:18:14,360 --> 01:18:19,080
Speaker 1: basically flex its muscles. I can't tell you if you

1419
01:18:19,360 --> 01:18:23,840
Speaker 1: go look at any John Roberts opinion, He in particular,

1420
01:18:25,280 --> 01:18:29,559
Speaker 1: he said, seems to reluctantly side with even though he's

1421
01:18:29,600 --> 01:18:32,400
Speaker 1: somebody that seems to always be in favor of giving

1422
01:18:32,439 --> 01:18:36,440
Speaker 1: more power to the executive or at least when in doubt,

1423
01:18:36,880 --> 01:18:42,519
Speaker 1: siding with the executive. He has been trying to remind

1424
01:18:42,640 --> 01:18:45,080
Speaker 1: Congress that if you know, they have a role here,

1425
01:18:45,120 --> 01:18:48,640
Speaker 1: if they choose to use it, if they choose to engage,

1426
01:18:49,840 --> 01:18:52,120
Speaker 1: And that's one of the questions I have. I'm a

1427
01:18:52,160 --> 01:18:56,120
Speaker 1: believer that everything is cyclical in American politics, and if

1428
01:18:56,160 --> 01:19:00,960
Speaker 1: you look in presidential elections. You know, we regularly pick

1429
01:19:01,320 --> 01:19:05,439
Speaker 1: a president who with the trait that we that you know,

1430
01:19:05,479 --> 01:19:08,439
Speaker 1: we pick a new president with a character trait that

1431
01:19:08,479 --> 01:19:11,400
Speaker 1: we think the last president was missing. Well, I think

1432
01:19:11,439 --> 01:19:14,679
Speaker 1: one of the other cycles we could go into after

1433
01:19:14,840 --> 01:19:17,040
Speaker 1: the you know, I think there's a lot of exhaustion

1434
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:21,639
Speaker 1: from the from the from from giving so much power

1435
01:19:21,640 --> 01:19:24,920
Speaker 1: to the executive branch, that we may get a Congress

1436
01:19:25,040 --> 01:19:29,200
Speaker 1: that will finally, at some point, a bipartisan Congress that decides,

1437
01:19:29,240 --> 01:19:32,120
Speaker 1: you know what, let me go reread the Constitution and

1438
01:19:32,160 --> 01:19:38,160
Speaker 1: go look at Article one and strengthen Congress's role on everything.

1439
01:19:38,840 --> 01:19:41,120
Speaker 1: Especially with the way these tariffs have gone. It could

1440
01:19:41,200 --> 01:19:44,000
Speaker 1: be that tariffs is finally the straw that that sort

1441
01:19:44,000 --> 01:19:48,240
Speaker 1: of breaks the legislative back of Congress and finally gets

1442
01:19:48,680 --> 01:19:52,360
Speaker 1: members of Congress to sober up and take back control

1443
01:19:52,560 --> 01:19:55,439
Speaker 1: of the power that they already have. All they have

1444
01:19:55,520 --> 01:19:59,519
Speaker 1: to do is actually stop handing emergency powers over to

1445
01:19:59,560 --> 01:20:02,320
Speaker 1: the president. And see, you know, whenever they can't decide,

1446
01:20:02,360 --> 01:20:05,320
Speaker 1: it seemed they kick the can to the presidency. And

1447
01:20:05,320 --> 01:20:09,360
Speaker 1: this is, like I said, you can really this arguably

1448
01:20:09,439 --> 01:20:13,360
Speaker 1: began when all this trade authority was handed to the

1449
01:20:13,360 --> 01:20:17,240
Speaker 1: presidency in the early nineties both the Bush and Clinton.

1450
01:20:17,520 --> 01:20:21,640
Speaker 1: Then nine to eleven happens and more executive authority was

1451
01:20:21,640 --> 01:20:25,720
Speaker 1: handed to them by Congress, and then Democratic Congress gave

1452
01:20:25,720 --> 01:20:28,679
Speaker 1: it to Obama, Republican Congress gave more power to Trump,

1453
01:20:29,520 --> 01:20:31,720
Speaker 1: and we've seen it go over and over. This has

1454
01:20:31,800 --> 01:20:36,719
Speaker 1: been a now quarter century of this. At some point

1455
01:20:36,880 --> 01:20:39,479
Speaker 1: there will be a movement of congressional leaders in a

1456
01:20:39,479 --> 01:20:42,760
Speaker 1: bipartisan basis that I think shifts this back. As far

1457
01:20:42,760 --> 01:20:45,160
Speaker 1: as your other question about resistance two point zero, Look,

1458
01:20:45,200 --> 01:20:47,040
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a thousand flowers balloon.

1459
01:20:47,560 --> 01:20:49,360
Speaker 1: I do think you're going to have some that's going

1460
01:20:49,439 --> 01:20:54,400
Speaker 1: to be extra resistancy, and you'll see the protest, and

1461
01:20:54,479 --> 01:20:57,519
Speaker 1: you'll probably see Bernie and AOC sticking to that world.

1462
01:20:57,800 --> 01:21:00,960
Speaker 1: Corey Booker, I think is certainly a stoutdblishing himself as

1463
01:21:01,000 --> 01:21:05,160
Speaker 1: more of a resistance Democrat. Ditto with Chris Murphy. But

1464
01:21:05,200 --> 01:21:07,320
Speaker 1: then you got your Gretchen wet Merger or Andy Basheer's,

1465
01:21:08,040 --> 01:21:09,920
Speaker 1: and then I got like Pete Bodagich, who I think

1466
01:21:10,080 --> 01:21:12,680
Speaker 1: believes his brand is not a resistance brand, that his

1467
01:21:12,760 --> 01:21:17,479
Speaker 1: brand is some way of a new kind of politics brand.

1468
01:21:18,800 --> 01:21:22,679
Speaker 1: Does the resistance get strong enough that it spooks those

1469
01:21:22,680 --> 01:21:26,280
Speaker 1: who are trying to be more unifiers from pursuing that message,

1470
01:21:26,920 --> 01:21:30,800
Speaker 1: or or is there an appetite even inside the Democratic

1471
01:21:30,840 --> 01:21:35,400
Speaker 1: Party for the type of nominee that is that is,

1472
01:21:35,720 --> 01:21:39,799
Speaker 1: you know, less antagonistic and a little bit more unifying.

1473
01:21:40,479 --> 01:21:42,880
Speaker 1: We'll see. As for the NCAA, Look, I think it's

1474
01:21:42,920 --> 01:21:48,080
Speaker 1: inevitable Congress is going to get involved. Universities get way

1475
01:21:48,120 --> 01:21:50,640
Speaker 1: too many too much federal funds for there not to

1476
01:21:50,760 --> 01:21:56,439
Speaker 1: be a for there not to be a technical reason

1477
01:21:56,760 --> 01:22:00,120
Speaker 1: for the federal government to insert itself. But a lot

1478
01:22:00,120 --> 01:22:02,720
Speaker 1: of members of Congress, you know, this college sports is

1479
01:22:02,760 --> 01:22:05,799
Speaker 1: parochial to them. You know, Mitch McConnell got very involved

1480
01:22:05,840 --> 01:22:08,920
Speaker 1: in getting Louisville into a major conference. For the longest

1481
01:22:08,920 --> 01:22:11,400
Speaker 1: time Louisville was not in a major conference. He tried

1482
01:22:11,439 --> 01:22:13,160
Speaker 1: really hard to force the Big twelve to take him,

1483
01:22:13,200 --> 01:22:16,280
Speaker 1: and eventually he seemed to get the ACC to do

1484
01:22:16,400 --> 01:22:19,519
Speaker 1: that so plenty. Mark Warner, when he was governor of Virginia,

1485
01:22:20,160 --> 01:22:25,000
Speaker 1: basically put a you know, hijacked the the Big East

1486
01:22:25,120 --> 01:22:29,200
Speaker 1: breakup where Miami, Boston College, and Syracuse We're going to

1487
01:22:29,200 --> 01:22:32,879
Speaker 1: go to the ACC. And he basically forced the University

1488
01:22:32,920 --> 01:22:35,880
Speaker 1: of Virginia to veto that move unless Virginia Tech were

1489
01:22:35,920 --> 01:22:39,880
Speaker 1: also brought aboard. So the point is it's good politics

1490
01:22:40,000 --> 01:22:43,719
Speaker 1: to protect your university from something, you know, from getting

1491
01:22:43,760 --> 01:22:48,240
Speaker 1: them sidelined, particularly in sports. So the point is it's

1492
01:22:48,320 --> 01:22:51,040
Speaker 1: inevitable the Congress is going to get involved into the

1493
01:22:51,240 --> 01:22:54,800
Speaker 1: NCAA mess. The question is when does that happen, not

1494
01:22:55,200 --> 01:22:57,400
Speaker 1: if it happened. Sarah, all right, I'm going to do

1495
01:22:57,479 --> 01:22:59,920
Speaker 1: one more question. I've gone long, but this was one

1496
01:23:00,000 --> 01:23:02,479
Speaker 1: about the media, comes from Jeff Polney says, does the

1497
01:23:02,560 --> 01:23:05,720
Speaker 1: media go too deep or far back into the backgrounds

1498
01:23:05,720 --> 01:23:09,280
Speaker 1: of political candidates and department nominees, thus causing quote normal

1499
01:23:09,360 --> 01:23:11,840
Speaker 1: people to avoid public service? Do we really need to

1500
01:23:11,920 --> 01:23:14,400
Speaker 1: know the high school nerdiness or that they drank in

1501
01:23:14,520 --> 01:23:17,639
Speaker 1: excess to excess in college if those are no longer

1502
01:23:18,160 --> 01:23:21,519
Speaker 1: issues with a person, Look, the answer, Jeff is I

1503
01:23:21,600 --> 01:23:26,560
Speaker 1: agree with you. You know, I do think one of

1504
01:23:26,640 --> 01:23:29,000
Speaker 1: the one of the things that I feel like has

1505
01:23:29,120 --> 01:23:36,559
Speaker 1: changed is that after you know, every we sort of overcorrect, right.

1506
01:23:37,120 --> 01:23:40,240
Speaker 1: So for the longest time, men in power who were

1507
01:23:40,280 --> 01:23:43,680
Speaker 1: taking advantage of women were just not getting punished, right,

1508
01:23:43,800 --> 01:23:47,120
Speaker 1: And so then we went and said no, enough of this, right,

1509
01:23:47,240 --> 01:23:51,720
Speaker 1: whether it's Harvey Weinstein, et cetera. Now it seems as

1510
01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:53,840
Speaker 1: if our culture has decided, all right, did we over

1511
01:23:54,040 --> 01:23:58,439
Speaker 1: cancel people? Did we cancel people too quickly? So you're

1512
01:23:58,439 --> 01:24:00,920
Speaker 1: starting to see a pull back there. We're probably going

1513
01:24:01,000 --> 01:24:03,519
Speaker 1: to see an overcorrection now it's too lenient, We'll probably

1514
01:24:03,960 --> 01:24:06,320
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think the public wanted, you know,

1515
01:24:06,600 --> 01:24:09,840
Speaker 1: sort of the the the culture of Pete hegseeth either

1516
01:24:09,920 --> 01:24:12,839
Speaker 1: and how and how he thinks about women in combat

1517
01:24:12,920 --> 01:24:18,880
Speaker 1: and women and in leadership roles. But I think the

1518
01:24:19,080 --> 01:24:21,160
Speaker 1: fair point that you have is that, look, when you

1519
01:24:21,240 --> 01:24:24,040
Speaker 1: have a democracy, it's of the people, and all humans

1520
01:24:24,040 --> 01:24:27,479
Speaker 1: are flawed, I know plenty. And I always joke one

1521
01:24:27,479 --> 01:24:28,920
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I'd never want to run for

1522
01:24:29,000 --> 01:24:31,080
Speaker 1: office is that I don't I don't want that kind

1523
01:24:31,120 --> 01:24:32,439
Speaker 1: of scrutiny, and I don't want to do that to

1524
01:24:32,560 --> 01:24:35,720
Speaker 1: my family. It's not fair to my family to get

1525
01:24:35,800 --> 01:24:39,040
Speaker 1: that kind of scrutiny. And that's a bummer, right that

1526
01:24:39,400 --> 01:24:41,559
Speaker 1: That's what you have to think about. You know, when

1527
01:24:41,600 --> 01:24:43,760
Speaker 1: you run for office, you're it's just not you who

1528
01:24:43,840 --> 01:24:46,880
Speaker 1: you're putting out there. Your kids could become targets. Your

1529
01:24:47,280 --> 01:24:50,759
Speaker 1: parents can become targets if they're still alive, aunts and uncles,

1530
01:24:50,920 --> 01:24:56,439
Speaker 1: colleagues at your work. So I would say that social

1531
01:24:56,479 --> 01:25:00,960
Speaker 1: media has certainly weaponized personal biography in a way that

1532
01:25:01,160 --> 01:25:06,560
Speaker 1: is ugly, and that is likely why we have the

1533
01:25:06,640 --> 01:25:09,000
Speaker 1: people who are willing to run for Congress right now.

1534
01:25:09,080 --> 01:25:12,479
Speaker 1: Right you sort of get what what the culture allows.

1535
01:25:13,320 --> 01:25:17,560
Speaker 1: And so if you if the quote normies don't want that,

1536
01:25:18,000 --> 01:25:21,320
Speaker 1: and the non normies are like, I don't care, let's

1537
01:25:21,560 --> 01:25:23,559
Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna I'm gonna be who I am,

1538
01:25:23,680 --> 01:25:26,400
Speaker 1: and you know, whether that's a Marjorie Taylor Green or

1539
01:25:27,040 --> 01:25:29,000
Speaker 1: or somebody else that you have as your avatar for

1540
01:25:29,120 --> 01:25:33,479
Speaker 1: that for that kind of candidate. Yeah, you know, I

1541
01:25:33,720 --> 01:25:36,680
Speaker 1: I do think that. But here's the problem with the

1542
01:25:36,760 --> 01:25:40,919
Speaker 1: quote unquote the media. I think I think responsible journalists

1543
01:25:41,160 --> 01:25:44,600
Speaker 1: do have lines they won't cross. The problem is, you know,

1544
01:25:44,720 --> 01:25:47,880
Speaker 1: with oppo research these days, if somebody wants to politically

1545
01:25:48,400 --> 01:25:52,280
Speaker 1: try to kill a nominee using using you know, some

1546
01:25:52,520 --> 01:25:56,280
Speaker 1: ugly stuff in their background or with their family, even

1547
01:25:56,320 --> 01:25:59,160
Speaker 1: if a mainstream journalist says I'm not I'm not I'm

1548
01:25:59,200 --> 01:26:01,840
Speaker 1: not going to troll in that garbage. There's always some

1549
01:26:02,280 --> 01:26:05,519
Speaker 1: influencer who's willing to do it. And now that we

1550
01:26:05,680 --> 01:26:08,160
Speaker 1: have such you know that there is there is such

1551
01:26:08,200 --> 01:26:11,280
Speaker 1: a culture that rewards this. You know, it's gonna it's

1552
01:26:11,680 --> 01:26:16,160
Speaker 1: it's gonna be up to those in power to decide

1553
01:26:16,200 --> 01:26:20,280
Speaker 1: that they're not going to allow allow that kind of

1554
01:26:20,400 --> 01:26:23,600
Speaker 1: politics to win or the voters to do that. And

1555
01:26:23,800 --> 01:26:26,559
Speaker 1: you know it's you know, I do believe these things.

1556
01:26:26,680 --> 01:26:29,479
Speaker 1: Over time, the culture will reject it and will decide,

1557
01:26:29,760 --> 01:26:32,120
Speaker 1: you know, we don't care anymore. There was a time

1558
01:26:32,200 --> 01:26:37,280
Speaker 1: where the public cared if public officials smoked pot. Then

1559
01:26:37,360 --> 01:26:39,280
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton said I, you know, I did it, but

1560
01:26:39,360 --> 01:26:41,720
Speaker 1: I didn't Inhale, and they were like, okay. There was

1561
01:26:41,800 --> 01:26:43,680
Speaker 1: a time Gary Hart was sort of forced out of

1562
01:26:43,720 --> 01:26:47,639
Speaker 1: politics because of because he had an affair. Bill Clinton

1563
01:26:48,200 --> 01:26:51,960
Speaker 1: got caught having an affair and people rallied around his defense.

1564
01:26:52,000 --> 01:26:54,479
Speaker 1: And now you've got Donald Trump where we've decided that

1565
01:26:55,439 --> 01:26:59,040
Speaker 1: personal character is even less of a of a of

1566
01:26:59,120 --> 01:27:05,000
Speaker 1: a of a criteria to be president. So I do

1567
01:27:05,200 --> 01:27:08,200
Speaker 1: think in some ways culture dictates this more than anything.

1568
01:27:08,880 --> 01:27:12,880
Speaker 1: So you know, I wonder if now that we've gotten

1569
01:27:12,960 --> 01:27:16,479
Speaker 1: over this sort of over canceling under canceling all of

1570
01:27:16,560 --> 01:27:19,719
Speaker 1: this business. Do we see a surge of normal people

1571
01:27:20,320 --> 01:27:24,759
Speaker 1: suddenly come into the political system running for office that's

1572
01:27:27,320 --> 01:27:33,080
Speaker 1: that is neither sort of outliers in character, and maybe

1573
01:27:33,200 --> 01:27:36,240
Speaker 1: they're a little more comfortable saying, hey, that's none of

1574
01:27:36,280 --> 01:27:39,040
Speaker 1: your business, or leave my family alone. And for the

1575
01:27:39,120 --> 01:27:42,439
Speaker 1: most part, people will do that. So, like I said,

1576
01:27:42,680 --> 01:27:45,800
Speaker 1: I think this stuff cyclical. I'd like to think we're

1577
01:27:45,840 --> 01:27:48,120
Speaker 1: going to get back to some sort of equilibrium that

1578
01:27:48,240 --> 01:27:53,560
Speaker 1: maybe we realize, look, is the person qualified and do

1579
01:27:53,680 --> 01:27:55,720
Speaker 1: they have the character and temperament to do the job.

1580
01:27:56,360 --> 01:28:00,160
Speaker 1: Ultimately those should be you know, character and temper men

1581
01:28:00,160 --> 01:28:02,439
Speaker 1: are a big deal to me, and in fact, many

1582
01:28:02,520 --> 01:28:05,639
Speaker 1: times I vote as much on character and temperament as

1583
01:28:05,680 --> 01:28:09,680
Speaker 1: I do on substance or ideology, because you know, give

1584
01:28:09,720 --> 01:28:12,280
Speaker 1: me somebody with high character, even if I disagree with them,

1585
01:28:12,400 --> 01:28:17,320
Speaker 1: and ultimately I know I'm going to be okay. Give

1586
01:28:17,400 --> 01:28:19,800
Speaker 1: me somebody with low character who I may think I

1587
01:28:19,920 --> 01:28:22,360
Speaker 1: agree with all the time, and that makes me nervous

1588
01:28:22,960 --> 01:28:25,680
Speaker 1: because what are they willing to do in order to

1589
01:28:25,800 --> 01:28:29,240
Speaker 1: keep power or enact power? So ultimately, I'm a person

1590
01:28:29,280 --> 01:28:33,880
Speaker 1: who believes character and temperament should be arguably the number

1591
01:28:33,960 --> 01:28:37,880
Speaker 1: one criteria people take people use to decide who should

1592
01:28:37,880 --> 01:28:42,240
Speaker 1: be president, but that is not the majority opinion these days.

1593
01:28:42,600 --> 01:28:45,400
Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to end things there. I hope

1594
01:28:45,400 --> 01:28:49,200
Speaker 1: you enjoyed this episode. Good news is I'll have more

1595
01:28:49,240 --> 01:28:52,360
Speaker 1: common later this week, including a couple of people who

1596
01:28:52,439 --> 01:28:55,400
Speaker 1: have run for president before on both sides of the eye.

1597
01:28:56,000 --> 01:28:58,640
Speaker 1: With that tease out of the way, i'll see a

1598
01:28:58,760 --> 01:29:00,000
Speaker 1: sin until we upload again.

1599
01:29:02,080 --> 01:29:02,320
Speaker 2: Hey,