1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,880 Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus mobile app, and on your radio. 3 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Thrower in Moscow. 4 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: There's updates brought to you by c g m A. 5 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 1: Employ a Chartered Global Management accountant or empower your finance 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: team with the c g m A program. Learn more 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: at c g m A dot org, slash Radio u 8 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: SACK Index futures. They are higher as investors await further 9 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: financial reports in this week's Federal Raiser of Policy update 10 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:33,959 Speaker 1: for signs of the health of the world's biggest economy, 11 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: whicheck the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day 12 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,639 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg SNP EMNI futures up three points, DOWI Mini 13 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: futures up thirty four NASDAC EMITTI futures up three decks. 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: In Germany, that'll change and your treasury, that'll change. The 15 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: yield one point one percent. Nimex crude oil is up 16 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: nine tenths per cent or forty cents, to forty three 17 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: oh four A barrel. Comex gold is down six ten 18 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: percent or six dollars ninety cents to twelve thirty three 19 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: thirty announced the euro at their twelve seventy seven The 20 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: end is at one eleven. Surrupted Therapeutics failing to win 21 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 1: the backing of a panel of US regulatory advisers for 22 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: its experimental drug to treat a devastating muscle disease called 23 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: chen muscular dystrophy. Its shares are down forty four percent 24 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,559 Speaker 1: this morning. Fiat Chrysler's profit rising in the first quarter, 25 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: lifted by demand for jeep sport utility vehicles in Europe 26 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 1: and the US. Three m beat analysts first quarter profit 27 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: estimates as the maker of Posted notes and Scotch tape 28 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: boosted sales and its healthcare and safety businesses and T 29 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: Mobile reported profit that exceeded analysts estimates. And that's a 30 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: bloomberg business flash. Mike and Lisa Cara Mosco, thank you 31 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 1: very much for talking with Michael Pond. He is head 32 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 1: of Global inflation linked Research at bark LEAs Uh Lisa, 33 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: you were interested in his view going forward on the 34 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: idea that the market has a different view than the 35 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: Fed does. Well. The market is pricing in that the 36 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: Federal You were just saying in the break at the 37 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: market that the the inflation will never reach the FEDS 38 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 1: two target. Do you think that this is fair the 39 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: markets pricing in UM. Again, the market has its its opinion. 40 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 1: We think that UM the Fed will be able to 41 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: achieve its target over the medium term. Core inflation has 42 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: already started to pick up UM. Core PC has gone 43 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: from a low one range to the to the mid ones. 44 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: Now that's still lower than the FED would like it 45 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: to to be around two, but it has started to 46 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 1: creep higher. And break evens have bounced from their February lows, 47 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: and they should have because oils up the dollars down. 48 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: The Fed is a little bit more dubbish here, but 49 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: they're still low and still priced for inflation. The rainmain 50 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: below the fence target basically forever. So let's say the 51 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: market is wrong and inflation does reach the FEDS target, 52 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: which set of bonds will be most hurt. Well, we've 53 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: think um More importantly, that tips will outperform nominal treasuries here, 54 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: so so we expect to that those forward break evens 55 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: will move to levels more in line with being consistent 56 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 1: with the FEDS target of two percent on PC, which 57 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 1: means about two point four percent on cp I, which 58 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: is what tips are priced off of so we are. 59 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: What we're advocating is that investors UH continue to shift 60 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: into tips rather than own nominal treasuries, which could be 61 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: hurt if inflation does rise to the FEDS target. Micaul 62 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: Pond from Barclay's thanks for being with us here on 63 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: surveillance this morning. Now we're gonna turn our attention to politics. 64 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: It is another super Tuesday. They're calling it the Acela 65 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: Corridor or the primary day. Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and 66 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: Rhode Island will vote. What will it all mean when 67 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 1: the man who would know is NBC's Chucked, the host 68 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: of Meet the Press on him you see, which you 69 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: can hear every Sunday here on Bloomberg Radio. Chuck. We 70 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 1: normally start off by talking about the Republicans. I want 71 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: to start off by talking about the Democrats, because if 72 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: the polls are correct, Hillary Clinton is going to do 73 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 1: very well today and does that basically in the race 74 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: there In other words, is Bernie Sanders uh staring down, 75 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: you know, the barrel of the gun here. He's not 76 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: much point in carrying on, is there? Well? I thought 77 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: that right ended last week after New York. I mean, 78 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 1: you know, he put all his money cards on it, 79 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: and he was right. I mean, if he was going 80 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 1: to knock her off of the nomination, he needed to 81 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: win in a big state. You know, the fact of 82 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: the matter is the biggest state by population that he's 83 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: won this Michigan not bad, but he hasn't won Ohio, 84 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: he did not win Florida, he didn't win Texas, didn't 85 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,840 Speaker 1: win New York. California is still coming. But if you 86 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 1: look at the biggest states with the biggest electorates, um, 87 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,600 Speaker 1: Sanders hasn't won. And I think that that's why he 88 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 1: needed a big state win. Pennsylvania would be if he 89 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:03,799 Speaker 1: could pull that off. That with qualified there, it doesn't 90 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: look like he looks like he's may call up short. 91 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: But Sanders may win a couple of states in that 92 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: Rhode Island, Connecticut, I think our states that he could win, 93 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: so uh any any good count close in Pennsylvania. Um, 94 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 1: but look, I think it ended last week and this 95 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 1: delegate Hall that she's going to get tonight. You know, 96 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: she could only let's say he wins, let's say he 97 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: pulled the upside in Pennsylvania, it would only be by 98 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: a couple of points. She still would like to win 99 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: more delegates tonight because she's gonna rob in Maryland and Delaware. Chuck, 100 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 1: turning to the Republicans, which state for Donald Trump is 101 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: most important to win in this round of primaries? Uh, 102 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: in order to clinch the nomination. I think it's too 103 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: It's a it's not just winning in Pennsylvania, but winning big. 104 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: And the reason why it matters so much there is 105 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: that Pennsylvania is one of these states that most of 106 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 1: their delegates are going to be unbound at the convention. 107 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: In fact, what they do is when you when Pennsylvania 108 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: voters go to the polls today, they will be voting 109 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: for a presidential candidate, and then they will be select 110 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: king actual individuals to participate at Delicates. They elected fifty 111 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: four their delegates separately in separate elections, and they get 112 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 1: to vote however they want at the convention. Now, in 113 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: a survey of these people who are on the ballot 114 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: who run for Delicate, a majority of them of them 115 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: said that they would vote for the winner of their 116 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 1: state for the congressional district. UM. So if Trump wins big, 117 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: then a majority of those unbounds probably end up in 118 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: his column for that first ballot and That's why he 119 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 1: needs to not just win in Pennsylvania, but win big, 120 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: because he needs to put public pressure on those unbound 121 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 1: delegates to stick with them. The Chris folks thinking, I 122 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: think they can win as many as thirty of them. 123 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: They could, uh, And I think that's right that they could. 124 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: And I think Trump actually only needs We did some 125 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: back of the envelope path of the show on Sunday, 126 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: he only of the fifty four, I could argue he 127 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: only needs twenty five or thirty of them anyway, Um, 128 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 1: when you start looking at what he's gonna need, he's 129 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: gonna have a huge night tonight. And that's that's something else. 130 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: And it really is to be a reminder of this 131 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: little cruise casic deal. If only they had cut it 132 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: a month ago, tonight could have been a different story. 133 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: And I think they would have been able to prevent 134 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: Trump from getting his twelve thirty seven. But it may 135 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 1: be that this deal was cut too too late. What 136 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: should we be looking for with Kasey? I mean, he's 137 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: been basically written off, is basically staying in simply in 138 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: case there's a consisted UH convention. But you know, what, 139 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: what should we be looking for to give him some 140 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: more credibility in this whole race. Well, I think it's 141 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: possible he wins more delegates to night than Cruz. Um. 142 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: That wouldn't that that would be a pretty good uh 143 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: feather in his cap um. It would be better if 144 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: you can actually win a second state. John Casi has 145 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: yet to win a state outside of Ohio, and that 146 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: is a troublesome trend for him. He has not one. 147 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: You know, he hasn't won more more than ten delegates. 148 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: I think in over a month he got about four 149 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: or five in New York. Let's see how he does tonight. 150 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:57,679 Speaker 1: So I think, you know, a close second place in Maryland, 151 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: a close second place in Pennsylvania of him, a little 152 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: bit of a booster, a booster shot. But um, this 153 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: could have been a better Tuesday for him had he 154 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: focused on one state, had he focused on Maryland, for instance, 155 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: But the campaign chose not to do that. Trump's people 156 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: went down to Florida or the meeting of the Republican 157 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: National Committee last week and said he was only kidding. 158 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: It's all in act, and he'll clean up his act 159 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: and he'll be a respectable, intelligent candidate going forward. Do 160 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: any Republicans actually think that he can beat Hillary Clinton? 161 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: And and do they really think he is not going 162 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 1: to be a detriment to the party down about Here's 163 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: what some Republicans. Here's the debate that's going on. Rank 164 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: of Republican activists, Um, the sort of the strategy times. 165 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: Do they believe Trump can win? No? Do they believe 166 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: Cruz can win? No? Do they believe Trump presents Clinton 167 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: more problems than Cruise? Yes? And that is the one 168 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:03,479 Speaker 1: advantage Trump has is that there if you're giving Republican 169 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: activists a choice between Crews and Trump, the unpredictability of 170 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: Trump makes some of these Republicans beliegue. Well, there's at 171 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: least that you never know aspect to Trump in a 172 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: fall campaign versus Clinton. Then there is, for instance, with 173 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: CRUs with Crews, you know what you're gonna get. She 174 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: can run a predictable campaign and he probably can't win 175 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: a demographic contest. With Trump, it becomes a different campaign. 176 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: And so that's why that's that's where Trump's unpredictability helps. 177 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: And by the way, you know, it's interesting, Um, you 178 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: talked about what his campaign staff said about Trump at 179 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: that n C meeting. Guess who disagreed with with that characterization. 180 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: Donald Trump wasn't happy about it. So I think we've 181 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: got some turmoil inside the Trump campaign. Well, he would 182 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: hate it if he were not on NBC all the time, 183 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: and he loves speaking for himself. He doesn't like one 184 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: other people speak for him period. Even if he agrees 185 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 1: with what they say, it bothers them. And I think 186 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: that the new staff that was brought in they haven't 187 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: figured that out about him yet. It's it's they got 188 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: to be careful here or he'll he'll run them out 189 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: of sound. You know. I was struck by the news 190 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: of the weekend that the Koch Brothers might consider supporting 191 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: Larry Clinton as opposed to any of the Republican UH candidates. 192 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: I mean, how damaging do you think this will be 193 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: going forward through a Hucane party. I think it could be. 194 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: Here's what it does. It's it's not that it's not 195 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: losing the presidential list, and it's the impact it could 196 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: have down the ballot. And it's the fact that, Look, 197 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: the Republican Party has been having this fight inside for 198 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: about a decade right between the pragmatic business wing of 199 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: the party and they conserve more more conservative activists win 200 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 1: and Donald Trump came in and then basically um blew 201 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: up both parts of that party, right. He took the 202 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 1: pieces of both coalitions and he created this new one. 203 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: The downside for the party is that if Donald from 204 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,199 Speaker 1: the commenee, this fight between the two sides and the 205 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: Republican Party will never get decided for a two years, 206 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: and it's going to keep it longer. From NBC, you 207 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: could listen to me to Press eleven and three here 208 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio.