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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 2: We're setting it to cash stop.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: And we are hooked away.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Week fourteen Action Network Podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 3: Chris Raymond, and this is your Week fourteen NFL betting preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm joined as always by my Action Network colleague, the

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 5: What's going on?

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Speaker 4: Ready to get to work on Week fourteen? We only

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Speaker 4: have four regular season weeks left, then we get a

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Speaker 4: little playoffs, so let's close with a bang.

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Speaker 3: Let's do it before we kick things off too very

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Speaker 3: quick reminders Number one, if you plan to bet on

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Speaker 3: the NFL this season and hasn't downloaded the free, award

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Speaker 3: winning Action Network app, what are you doing?

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Speaker 3: Stucky in the whole Action Network team and it lets

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Speaker 3: you track every bet that you make. And number two,

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Speaker 3: don't forget to enter our free custom weekly DFS contest,

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Speaker 3: the Action Pods Tournament of Champions presented by bet MGM

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Speaker 3: twenty spots in our Wildcard Weekend Grand Finale.

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Speaker 5: You're still up for grabs.

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Speaker 3: So follow the link in the episode description and join

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Speaker 3: for free today. All right, Stuck, let's get into Thursday

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Speaker 3: Night football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: So this week we have a rematch of a couple

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Speaker 3: of Super Bowls ago, the New England Patriots at the

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles Rams. Rams favored by five and a half points.

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Speaker 3: The total is forty four and a half at bet MVM,

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Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the podcast. Stuck initial thoughts

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Speaker 3: on this Thursday night football matchup.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, just to set the stage here, well, actually should

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Speaker 4: just let me just give an update on the kind

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Speaker 4: of the lay of the land of the NFL. I

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Speaker 4: think it's a good time to do it. As we

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Speaker 4: head into Week fourteen, Home teams are ninety six, ninety

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Speaker 4: four and one, so basically, there are exactly five hundred

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Speaker 4: on the air, and last year's win percentage of fifty

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Speaker 4: one point two percent was the lowest since nineteen seventy two.

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Speaker 4: And if you go back from twenty three twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 4: fifty seven percent win rate straight up for home team's

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Speaker 4: average margin about two point four points against the spread.

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Speaker 4: Road teams are hitting at about fifty two and a

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Speaker 4: half percent on the year, covering by about one point

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Speaker 4: three points on average overs and unders about even on

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Speaker 4: the year. So basically, what those numbers tell you and

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Speaker 4: everyone's were, you know, trying to figure out what his

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Speaker 4: home field worth without fans, is that there is no

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Speaker 4: home field avands this year. An home field has been

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Speaker 4: coming down. We've talked about that before, but you have

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Speaker 4: to remember there's still a lot of noise. It's still

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Speaker 4: a small sample size, you know, of games that we're

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Speaker 4: talking about, close to two hundred games, it's gonna be

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Speaker 4: a lot of noise there. I still have my average

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Speaker 4: home field around one point lower for division games, about

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Speaker 4: a half point difference between division and non division games,

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Speaker 4: but it comes out to about an average one point.

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Speaker 4: But maybe I'm too high, Maybe I'm too low. It's

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Speaker 4: a continual process. But this game will be played in

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Speaker 4: Los ange Angelus and New England was in Los Angeles

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Speaker 4: last week, so they're staying out there and it's a

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Speaker 4: rematch of the Super Bowl. And I'm really intrigued just

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Speaker 4: to see. I mean, basically, Bill Belichick, Flores and company

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Speaker 4: ruined Sean McVay for about a season plus, right, They

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Speaker 4: came in and just completely shut down that Rams offense.

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Speaker 4: They kind of gave the league a script. Actually, if

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Speaker 4: you go back, it.

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Speaker 5: Was Bears Bears too.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it was the Bears, and then with Vic Fangio

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Speaker 4: and then it was you know, Matt Patricia had his

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Speaker 4: hand in there, Matt Patricia call out. But you know,

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Speaker 4: then Sean McVay coming into this year, is redesigned, went

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Speaker 4: back to the lab and has done some new things

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Speaker 4: with the offense. So it'll be interesting to see what

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Speaker 4: the Patriots do from a scheme perspective here, because this

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Speaker 4: front seven is nowhere close to it as good as

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Speaker 4: the front seven that we saw then. And same with

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Speaker 4: the back end. They've had a lot of opt outs.

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Speaker 4: You know. Whatever, I look at the Rams, it's okay,

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Speaker 4: and then you really get pressure on golf to disrupt

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Speaker 4: the offense, and you get pressure on golf, it's pretty simple.

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Speaker 4: He's probably gonna flop and the Patriots aren't elite at

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Speaker 4: getting pressure. Now, can they come up with something scheme wise,

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Speaker 4: we'll see. I have a slight lean to the underyard.

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Speaker 4: I mean the Patriots, they can't throw the ball. They're

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Speaker 4: just trying to grind a ball and grind the clock

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Speaker 4: down the field. Yes, they won forty five nothing last week,

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Speaker 4: but Cam Newton threw for sixty nine yards not nice,

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Speaker 4: and the Patriots had less than three hundred yards at

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Speaker 4: four point four yards we play. They basically won on

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Speaker 4: special teams. We know all bet the charge special teams are.

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Speaker 4: And in the week before against Arizona they won twenty

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Speaker 4: to seventeen. Cam Newton threw for eighty four yards and

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Speaker 4: the Patriots had one hundred and seventy nine total yards

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Speaker 4: three point five yards per play. They went back to

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Speaker 4: back games in the NFL with those offensive stets mainly

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Speaker 4: based on special teams, so you know that's very hard

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Speaker 4: to sustain. I don't see them winning this game be

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Speaker 4: a special teas. I think the Rams offense can do

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Speaker 4: enough here to get this win. I think the line

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Speaker 4: is about right. I have a slight lean to the under.

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Speaker 4: It's probably nothing I'll get involved with from a football

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Speaker 4: fan perspective. I'm just really intrigued to see the x's

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Speaker 4: and o's here and see what Belichick cooks up, how

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Speaker 4: the adjustments that McVeigh has made. And now golf handle's

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Speaker 4: going up against the Patriots here, so it should be

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Speaker 4: fascinating from that aspect. And maybe I'll get in live.

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Speaker 4: If you don't follow me, follow me on the Action

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Speaker 4: Network app and see if I get anything there. But

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Speaker 4: I think I won't be getting in on any anything pregame.

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Speaker 4: It's one of those weeks where the lines are really sharp.

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Speaker 4: There's not a ton of edges out there. For my numbers,

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Speaker 4: I think I only had three. I had no discrepancies

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Speaker 4: and spreads of over a field goal only three over

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Speaker 4: a point, which I'll get to in this show. So

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Speaker 4: it's a really tough, efficiently lined week. There's some spots

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Speaker 4: and some matchups that we're gonna get into where I

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Speaker 4: think you can still find some matches, but here this

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Speaker 4: looks like a pass to me, but a really fascinating game.

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Speaker 4: I just don't know if the Patriots offense can do

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Speaker 4: enough and you can't just keep relying on special teams touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Well, in here we go because it's Week fourteen, so

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Speaker 3: I'll switch it up. You usually have the special team's numbers.

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Speaker 3: I'll give you one. The Patriots number three in special

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Speaker 3: teams DVOA eight point eight percent above average. The Rams

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Speaker 3: number thirty negative seven point four percent. So interestingly enough,

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Speaker 3: you know the Patriots could have a special team's advantage

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Speaker 3: in this game. Now, what does that mean for the Rams?

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Speaker 5: And does it flow down? Because I think the Rams

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Speaker 5: have done.

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Speaker 3: A great job this year of masking Jared Goff's deficiencies,

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Speaker 3: especially since they did lose Andrew Whitworth a couple of

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Speaker 3: weeks ago, So you know, that's you know, that's big

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Speaker 3: for them. And and they really didn't do much over

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Speaker 3: the offseason, remember to kind of show up that old line.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of just continuity and and and and some

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Speaker 3: new schemes.

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Speaker 5: So Sean McVay really has done a good job.

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Speaker 4: And some younger backs, which is help because their running

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Speaker 4: game has been really good. Yeah, Todd Gurley getting stuffed anymore?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, high it's a high volume run game. You have

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Speaker 3: three capable backs that fell, you know, that can fill

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Speaker 3: different roles, kind of a little bit like the forty

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Speaker 3: nine ers had in that Super Bowl run last year.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, it's it's a good game.

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Speaker 3: I have it about Rams by four, but you know,

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Speaker 3: the difference between four and five and a half is

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Speaker 3: not really you know, something to where you're jumping to

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Speaker 3: bet uh the the the underdog in that spot, because

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Speaker 3: between you know, four and five and a half, you

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Speaker 3: know at three and a half and five and a

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Speaker 3: half really are It's kind of like a dead zone

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Speaker 3: where you know three is a key number, six is

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Speaker 3: the key number. So I have a little bit, you know,

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Speaker 3: tweaned towards the Patriots, but it's I still expect it

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Speaker 3: to be, you know, a one scoring game at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's yeah. I mean the special teams that is

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Speaker 4: a good point. I say, you can't keep relying on it.

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Speaker 4: But the Rams special teams have been have been miserable.

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Speaker 4: Their return game is awful, so they might lose the

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Speaker 4: field position battle here their kick end punt return uh

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Speaker 4: and their kicker, I don't know who their kick. Their

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Speaker 4: kicker is Matt Gay I think right now he's listened

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Speaker 4: as questionable because if he's a shoulder injury and they

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Speaker 4: have Austin McGinnis on the practice squad and their kicking

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Speaker 4: has just not been great. So yeah, I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Their kicker injured their shoulder, his shoulder apparently, which might

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Speaker 4: prevent them from kicking. I mean, how the hell does

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Speaker 4: that uh impact them? But yeah, you're right, the RAM

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Speaker 4: special team has been brutal, so maybe the Patriots make

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Speaker 4: a big player too. There's a missed field goal and

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Speaker 4: I don't know if that will be enough, but it

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Speaker 4: definitely could impact the cover here. But this is a

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Speaker 4: stay away from me.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if it's because the charges have been

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Speaker 3: so historically bad at special teams, but it does seem

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Speaker 3: and the Dolphins have been really good too, But it

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Speaker 3: just seems like special teams is impacting games in a

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Speaker 3: meaningful way a little bit more this year. It could

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Speaker 3: just be like a small sample size with you know,

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Speaker 3: a couple of teams happening to face off against each other,

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Speaker 3: but something to think about.

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Speaker 4: We don't love anything on Thursday football, so if you're

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Speaker 4: looking for action on the game, you know we have

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Speaker 4: great prop players, including yourself, Matt Friedman, Sean corner the

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Speaker 4: Odds Maker. We have a show Convinced Me on Thursday night,

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Speaker 4: seven Eastern. Just go to the Action Network handle and

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Speaker 4: it's it's live on on Periscope and you guys will

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Speaker 4: give your favorite props. We'll have prop content out on

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Speaker 4: the app on the Action networkaps, so check that out

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Speaker 4: and you guys always crush it so you can get

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Speaker 4: you can get some action that way. Just make sure

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Speaker 4: you're getting quick because some of these things will move.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, great point look out for that.

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Speaker 3: And we do the show Sunday every Sunday at eleven

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Speaker 3: am on the Action Network handle as well, where we

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Speaker 3: give out more props.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, that's that's always the key.

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Speaker 3: You know, these lines move extremely quick, you know, even

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Speaker 3: from when we you know, bet them to put putting

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Speaker 3: them in an app. So you know, if you can

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Speaker 3: get a line as soon as you see it posted,

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Speaker 3: please do. So there's your.

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Speaker 5: Thursday Night football game again.

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Speaker 3: Rams favored by five and a half, the total forty

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Speaker 3: four and a half. We don't really see a huge

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Speaker 3: edge in this one. Our numbers are pretty much in

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Speaker 3: As a reminder, you must be twenty one or older

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Speaker 3: Let's Crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 5: Your crushing stuck. You're up thirty eight to thirty one.

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Speaker 3: I guess this is my time because this is around

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Speaker 3: the time I came back last year. Yeah, but I

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Speaker 3: got work to do because I think we've been hitting

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Speaker 3: totals lately, but keep picking the wrong two point play,

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Speaker 3: which is killing me. Should should have just picked the

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Speaker 3: Jets on the spread last week. I can't believe they't

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Speaker 3: believe what happened at the end of that game. I'm

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Speaker 3: sure we'll talk about it, but I'm up first this week.

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Speaker 3: You'll go first for the total for the number one

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Speaker 3: pick of the week fourteen Sunday six pack, I am

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Speaker 3: going with z Atlanta Falcons minus two and a half

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Speaker 3: at the LA Chargers, And I'm just gonna keep testing

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Speaker 3: this Chargers team and Anthony Winn until they showed me

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Speaker 3: otherwise because number one, I really do like this Falcons team,

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Speaker 3: and I think because they played New Orleans twice games

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Speaker 3: that I thought, you know, they could they could have won,

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Speaker 3: and you know, the second time they're more competitive than

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Speaker 3: the first. But you know, maybe those two losses are

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Speaker 3: kind of masking some of the improvements that they've made

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Speaker 3: on the defensive side of the ball since Raheem Morris

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Speaker 3: took over. You know, even in this latest Saints game,

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Speaker 3: they gave up twenty one. The week before they give

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Speaker 3: up just six points. They haven't given up a thirty

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Speaker 3: point game under Raheem Morris. Twenty seven was the high

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Speaker 3: by the Denver Broncos in a game where the Broncos

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Speaker 3: were playing catch up for much of the second half.

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Speaker 3: So I really do like the Falcons team and some

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Speaker 3: of the improvements they've made. But this is a game

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Speaker 3: where you know, Anthony Winn gets the biggest coaching downgrade

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Speaker 3: for me, you know, in my model, out of out

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Speaker 3: of any team. And now you're starting to see the

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Speaker 3: metrics line up with with his Chargers, with the Chargers

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Speaker 3: play on the field, because for money, much of the season,

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Speaker 3: it was like, Okay, the Chargers are kind of an

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Speaker 3: average team with a great you know quarterback playing well,

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Speaker 3: some talent just playing a little bit, you know, below

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Speaker 3: their true talent level, underachieving a bit. You usually expect

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Speaker 3: those teams to kind of bounce back. But now you

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Speaker 3: look up and you look at DVOA and remember dvoa's

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Speaker 3: schedule adjusted, and the Chargers, after this latest defeat to

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Speaker 3: the Patriots, are now thirtieth in total DVOA and waited DVOA,

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Speaker 3: which waits the more recent games more heavily.

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Speaker 5: The Chargers are number thirty one in the league.

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Speaker 3: The Falcons are twenty second overall, so not great, but

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Speaker 3: they do improve three spots when you you look at

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Speaker 3: weighted DVAA. So this is essentially a lee average team

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Speaker 3: versus a bottom three team, which and you know, I

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Speaker 3: have this number at four. I think I'm the highest

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Speaker 3: of any of us. I think you have it significantly lower.

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Speaker 3: But I do kind of take into account, you know, coaching,

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Speaker 3: because it does impact the spread and the models, and

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Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest discrepancy I've seen with my

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Speaker 3: numbers and some of the quote unquote sharper numbers out there.

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Speaker 3: You know, what the big money is doing in a

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Speaker 3: given week, they're not going they're not adjusting for coaching.

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Speaker 3: And I think you saw that early in the year

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Speaker 3: with a lot of bets kind of coming in on

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Speaker 3: the Falcons, and you're kind of seeing that later in

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Speaker 3: the year with the Chargers still getting a lot of

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Speaker 3: love in the market despite continuously showing us that they

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Speaker 3: they're not going to play as well as you would

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Speaker 3: expect given what they look like. On paper, and I

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Speaker 3: think it was kind of significant that after that Bill's

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Speaker 3: game two weeks ago, the Chargers officially eliminated, essentially their

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Speaker 3: playoff chances went to zero. And then for them to

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Speaker 3: come out last week forty five to Nelson as a home.

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Speaker 4: Favorite, they lose.

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Speaker 3: Pro Football Reference has spread data dating back to nineteen

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Speaker 3: seventy five. Up until the Chargers game last week, no

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Speaker 3: home favorite had ever been shut out more than thirty

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Speaker 3: five than nothing, and that was also the Chargers in

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Speaker 3: like I think the eight seventies, or it might have

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Speaker 3: been early eighties, but they're still at home, second worst

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Speaker 3: team in the league according to wait to DVA. I'm

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Speaker 3: taking them minus two and a half, essentially betting on

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Speaker 3: the Falcons to win the game here in LA.

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Speaker 4: I think it actually was the most lopsided home loss

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Speaker 4: shutout loss in nineteen eighty nine, but whatever, Yeah, it's been.

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Speaker 4: It's definitely been over thirty years for sure. But what

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Speaker 4: I disagree is I make this closer to a pick now.

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Speaker 4: All I did is tease I have a teaser piece

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Speaker 4: out for this week to make sure you check it out.

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Speaker 4: I teased the Chargers up from two and a half

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Speaker 4: to three and a half, it fits the mold. I

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Speaker 4: do think that it's the one thing that's not great

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Speaker 4: about teasing is I think it's going to be a

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Speaker 4: higher scoring game, which doesn't make it an ide because

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Speaker 4: I make it to a pick. I was more than

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Speaker 4: comfortable teasing the Chargers from two and a half to

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Speaker 4: eight and a half, and outside of last week, all

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Speaker 4: they've done is playing lots of close games. And you know,

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Speaker 4: if just going back to history, if any trends, players

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Speaker 4: are out there a home dog after a more than

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Speaker 4: three touchdown loss since two thousand and three, forty twenty

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Speaker 4: three and two against the spread at sixty three and

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Speaker 4: a half percent. Teams off of a shutout loss are

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Speaker 4: twenty six and one against the spread since twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 4: about sixty eight percent over the past twenty years a

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Speaker 4: home dog. So after getting a shut out, a team

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Speaker 4: that's a home dog is thirty one and six when

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Speaker 4: teased since two thousand and one. So that's what I'm

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Speaker 4: doing here now. That is all of what I just

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Speaker 4: said goes back to kind of one of my key

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Speaker 4: philosophies in the NFL just works this way with your

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Speaker 4: numbers is buying low and selling high. So you know,

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Speaker 4: everyone sees the Chargers lose forty five nothing last week,

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Speaker 4: and it's so they're terrible. And look just coming out saying,

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Speaker 4: I'm fading Anthony Lynn to not win this game because

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Speaker 4: the cheargis pretty much have to win this game to cover.

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Speaker 4: That's actually sound enough reasoning right there. But the one

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Speaker 4: thing that you're fighting against here. I saw this really

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Speaker 4: funny tweet, and I apologize to the author because I

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Speaker 4: don't remember the handle where it said. The Atlanta Falcons

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Speaker 4: are an organization of fifty two players working together in

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Speaker 4: order to maximize who's fantasy points their kicker, which because

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Speaker 4: they cannot score in the red zone, it's what cost

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Speaker 4: them last I mean, it is amazing. The only the

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Speaker 4: only two teams that are less successful in the reds

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Speaker 4: of the year are the Giants and the Jets. And

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Speaker 4: it's crazy, by the way, special teams game. If you

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Speaker 4: talk special teams, this goes to your point. This is

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Speaker 4: a revenge game for cou revenge kicker game. And he's

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Speaker 4: been great and the honey bag, the hunt, the money Badger.

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Speaker 4: Can't name yourself as a kicker. He's been awful. Charge

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Speaker 4: of Specialty has been also that could end up being

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Speaker 4: the difference he covered two and a half, just a

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Speaker 4: missfield goal or a field goal. But yeah, I mean

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Speaker 4: the Falcons just the red zone. I don't I can't

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Speaker 4: figure out why they're so bad in the red zone.

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Speaker 4: They can't run the ball and then all the mobile quarterback.

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Speaker 4: I'm sure that's part of it, but the play calling

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Speaker 4: doesn't seem to be ideal. I do expect Justin Herbert

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Speaker 4: to bounce back against the soft Falcons defense. It has improved,

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Speaker 4: but Herbert's been good almost every week except last week.

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Speaker 4: And this isn't a Bill Belichick defense. So dating Anthony

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Speaker 4: Linda Louse, I can't give you too much shit, But

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Speaker 4: for me, I'm teasing the Chargers up to eight and

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and no, I'm usually on the you

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Speaker 3: know by low so high. I actually have a pick

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Speaker 3: that kind of fits into that perfectly. But my numbers

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Speaker 3: actually make this four like so you know, it's a

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Speaker 3: spot where usually when you're buying low selling highwake. You know,

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Speaker 3: we had the Jets and Raiders like seven and a

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Speaker 3: half last week, you know, things like that, usually the

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Speaker 3: numbers a little bit higher. But this is kind of

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Speaker 3: for whatever reason, you know the Chargers are still kind

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Speaker 3: of getting that benefit of the doubt. I just don't

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Speaker 3: see it. I mean, Anthony Wynn, you know, he's nine

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Speaker 3: in eighteen NLA against the spread. Like that's hard to do,

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Speaker 3: you know, at home, like over that span of time.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna continue to fade him like the Falcons

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Speaker 3: and improvement.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, essentially just betting on Anthony win to lose

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Speaker 5: a game.

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Speaker 6: I hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I

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Speaker 6: want to make sure you know about the locked On

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Speaker 6: podcast network. Locked On as a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 6: favorite team.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: You are locked own of the Dallas Matterage.

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Speaker 4: We came everybody for the lockdo on Lakers podcast.

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Speaker 2: Let's Go.

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Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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Speaker 6: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 4: All right, for my first pick and the second overall

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Speaker 4: pick of a Sunday's six pack, I'm going back to

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Speaker 4: All Reliable. It's treated me very well this year. And

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Speaker 4: that's Tom Brady off of a loss, and if you

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Speaker 4: want to know the stats, he's thirty four and twelve

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Speaker 4: against the spread off a straight up loss. It applied

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Speaker 4: against the Chiefs and he got us in the back door.

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Speaker 4: Know is coming, my dog. He's the most profitable of

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Speaker 4: two hundred and three quarterbacks in our Action Labs database,

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Speaker 4: covering by an average margin of six points per game

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Speaker 4: in those forty six games. And at BETMGM, the Bucks

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Speaker 4: are minus six and a half as a underdog or

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Speaker 4: favorite of less than a touchdown. Brady after a loss

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Speaker 4: is twenty six and three against the spread eighty nine

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Speaker 4: point seven percent. Insane. Tampa's obviously coming off of a

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Speaker 4: buy here that will help with their health, specifically a receiver.

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Speaker 4: I know Chris Godwin is in practicing. I expect him

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Speaker 4: to play. He had pins removed in his fingers, so

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Speaker 4: he didn't practice today. I assume he's just recovering from that.

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Speaker 4: But dean their corner, he should be back. Ali marpett

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Speaker 4: I fully expect to be on the offensive line. That's huge,

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Speaker 4: and I think, look what has Tampa done this year.

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Speaker 4: They've lost to the elite teams, the elite defenses, and

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Speaker 4: Brady hasn't looked great. This is not an elite defense.

435
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 4: These are corners that can be picked on. This is

436
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 4: a team that doesn't get pressure. The Vikings are twenty

437
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 4: fourth and adjusted sack rate when Brady's clean, clean in

438
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 4: the pocket this year, twenty five touchdowns, six picks, eighty

439
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 4: percent adjusted completion percentage when he's under pressure, He's thirtieth

440
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: or forty quarterbacks in quarterback rating three touchdowns, five picks,

441
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 4: fifty eight point two percent adjusted completion percent just thirty

442
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 4: fifth out of forty quarterbacks with a minimum of one

443
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 4: hundred dropbacks. And additionally you have the Vikings, who you know,

444
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 4: they've won two straight, but their injury report is really troubling.

445
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 4: Eric Kendricks didn't practice today. Both their tight ends, Kyle

446
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 4: Rudolph and IRV Smith didn't practice today. You know Glad

447
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 4: neither corner. He wasn't doing much of practice today. So

448
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 4: the Vikings are pretty banged up, while Tampa really got healthy.

449
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 4: We know that the Bucks beat these bad defenses in

450
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 4: these average to below average teams by a lot off

451
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 4: the loss they'd shown it and the Vikings just look,

452
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 4: I mean, can we take a look at what the

453
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 4: Vikings have done of late? Yes, I mean they lost

454
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 4: to Dallas at home, and we've seen, Hey was Dallas

455
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 4: having a resurgence? Now we've answered that question. They got

456
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 4: trucked by Washington and then trucked by Baltimore. Since that

457
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 4: loss to Dallas, Minnesota had a miraculous home win against Carolina,

458
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 4: a miraculous miracle. They scored eighteen points in the fourth quarter,

459
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 4: last second touchdown and then survived a missed field goal.

460
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 4: They really should have lost that game. And last week

461
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 4: they played the Jags at home. So this is the

462
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 4: Panthers and the Jags and back to back home after

463
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 4: losing to the Cowboys, and in that game, Minnesota again

464
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 4: had a very fortunate win. They had to come back

465
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 4: late and they won an overtime in a game where

466
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 4: they're playing Mike Glennon and the yardage was four twenty

467
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 4: to three to ninety yards per play. Vikings four point nine,

468
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 4: Jags five point seven. This team's trending in the wrong direction,

469
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 4: and the Bucks matchup well they can take They can

470
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 4: at least contain Dalvin Cook, which is where that entire

471
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 4: offense starts from. I think the Bucks, hopefully you would think,

472
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 4: figured out some things from a play calling perspective, on offense,

473
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 4: stopped throwing the Leonard Fournette. I think the Bucks come

474
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 4: out here with their haird fire and Brady gets another

475
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,239
Speaker 4: cover getting under a touchdown here after a loss. So

476
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 4: give me Tampa minus six and a half.

477
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think.

478
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 3: You know, I've noticed kind of the same thing with

479
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 3: Minnesota is that they're they're struggling against really flawed teams.

480
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: You know, I was did an article that should be

481
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 3: up soon on the Action Network just kind of breaking

482
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 3: down all of the NFC East teams after you know,

483
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 3: the to the Washington and Giants get the shutout win,

484
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 3: and just kind of looking over what they, you know,

485
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 3: who would be their ideal playoff opponent if they got there.

486
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 3: And Minnesota came up for me a lot, just because

487
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 3: I think a lot of of those teams would match

488
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: up well.

489
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 5: And one of the reasons is Minnesota has struggled.

490
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 3: Against the bad teams, and if you struggle against the

491
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 3: bad teams, you're going to struggle against the good teams.

492
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 5: And Tampa Bay that's that's really been there m O

493
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 5: this year.

494
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 3: And it's also not primetime, so Brady should be righte

495
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: awake and Ray, you.

496
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 5: Know, got all sleeping it's the bye.

497
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: You know, they had to buy Brady, remember he's forty three, didn't.

498
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 5: Have a buye to week twelve.

499
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 3: So I love this, and I love them as a

500
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 3: tease piece as well, because you could now tease them

501
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 3: to essentially win the game at at a half point.

502
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 3: So do like this pick No for my number two

503
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 3: pick and the number three overall pick of the week

504
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 3: fourteen Sunday six pack, I am going with the biggest

505
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 3: edge that I see at our pro models, and that's

506
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two and a half at the

507
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 3: Buffalo Bills. And I think, listen, you know, we've talked

508
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,199
Speaker 3: about the Steelers, and I actually thought they would they

509
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 3: would beat Washington last week. But we've talked about this, yeah,

510
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 3: right exactly.

511
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 2: I was.

512
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 4: I was rooting for the Steelers to win so we

513
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 4: could get Buffalo plus three here, yeah, and then I

514
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 4: wanted Buffalo to lose, to say a fran uh, and

515
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 4: then that would have been a slam spot because we

516
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 4: definitely would have got I think Bill's plus three.

517
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: This is not It was not a good Monday for me.

518
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 3: Like it was like it was like Steelers bow the

519
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: Weed Bills and then Jack and I had the singletary

520
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 3: under because I love that Niner run defense, and then

521
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 3: Zach like singingo, Erry gets hurt and I'm like, okay, good,

522
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 3: and then Zack Moss gets hurt, singles Terry gets like

523
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: every carry. I was like, oh, this is just this

524
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 3: is not going well. So yeah, yeah, one of those Mondays.

525
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 3: But this is how you this is how you do it.

526
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 3: You have to. It's kind of like being a cornerback,

527
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 3: like you know, who gets burned and you have to

528
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 3: come back. You can't be scared to come back and

529
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: play man coverage again. So we're going right back with

530
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 3: the Steelers plus two and a half. I can't believe

531
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 3: I'm betting on the Steelers here, but this this number.

532
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 3: I actually have the Steelers as slight favorites. So this

533
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 3: this number is pretty off to me. And I think

534
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 3: it is a reaction to what we saw in two

535
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: National TV games back to back last Monday night. And listen,

536
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 3: the Steelers they're not quite as good on defense as

537
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 3: they were earlier in the year. Why because all their

538
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 3: linebackers keep going out their knees. So with that being said,

539
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 3: this Buffalo team, you know, is one that this strength

540
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 3: of schedule does pull their numbers down a little bit.

541
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 3: They have beaten some kind of some kind of average

542
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 3: to bow below average teams. The Steelers still are gonna

543
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 3: have kind of the same issues they have on offense

544
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 3: as well. But all that being said, I think this

545
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 3: is a very evenly matched two teams. And Buffalo you

546
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 3: mentioned it, there's not really a big home field advantage

547
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 3: this year, so that's another factor kind of playing in

548
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: to where I have the Steelers as as again a

549
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 3: slight favorite the plus two and a half. I think

550
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 3: that this is a great spot for Mike Tomlin. Now,

551
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 3: you know, he kind of and I thought it would

552
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 3: happen last week, which is why I thought that the

553
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 3: Steelers would handle Washington. But I thought after that game

554
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 3: against Baltimore, and I think Tomlin tried to do it.

555
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 3: You know, he called him out, he said they sucked

556
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 3: and whatnot, but he didn't really get his point across

557
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 3: because they still won that game. But now now you

558
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 3: have durra ra Tomlin spot back a little bit where

559
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 3: he has some real kind of teaching points to go

560
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 3: off of, and you look at the Steelers and you know,

561
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 3: we've talked about this and there's kind of like some

562
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 3: very specific spots where you back them and where you

563
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: fade them. Mike Tomlin as an underdog thirty six and

564
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: eighteen against the spread sixty seven percent, Mike Tomlin off

565
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 3: of loss forty two thirty fifty eight percent against the spread,

566
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 3: and then Sean McDermott is is just forty three percent

567
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 3: against the spread off a multi game straight up win streak.

568
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 3: So I love how the situational spot kind of aligns

569
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: for the Steelers to bounce back here against and again,

570
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 3: this is you know, even with you know, Steelers losing

571
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 3: a linebacker, a couple of linebackers, this is still gonna

572
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 3: be a tough matchup for Josh Allen.

573
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 5: Josh Allen has been inconsistent, you know, from week to week.

574
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 3: Like he played well against San Francisco, he played poorly

575
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 3: against the Chargers, played poorly I think a couple of weeks

576
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 3: ago against the Jets, Like we've seen this kind of

577
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: up and down from him. And I think, you know,

578
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 3: in this spot with the focused Steelers team that's a

579
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 3: little bit angry and kind of just a great spot

580
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: for their coach now to get his point across. I

581
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: think you're gonna see a whole different Steelers team than

582
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 3: the one we kind of saw just sweep walking through

583
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 3: those last two primetime games.

584
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 4: I have a lot on this game. The one thing

585
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 4: I will say, the Bills defense is definitely trending in

586
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 4: the right direction. During the week, they made some scheme

587
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 4: changes the way that they're using some of their linebackers.

588
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 4: Edmonds are lighting in more outside. They're being more aggressive

589
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 4: with aj Klein. Now they have Matt Milano back, which

590
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 4: is just huge across the board. Johnson, their slot is

591
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 4: playing a little better. They don't have Josh Norman in

592
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 4: there any longer, Levi Wallace is in There's just a

593
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 4: lot of pieces that are playing well. Some of their

594
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 4: defensive linemen are playing better, so they cleaned some things

595
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 4: up on the defensive side of the ball during the bye.

596
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 4: The offensive line is playing well of late. I mean,

597
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 4: the Bills have looked good of late. But there's no

598
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 4: doubt that this is, you know, a direct overreaction to

599
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 4: what happened on the same night last week. You know,

600
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 4: you saw the Bills look so good against the forty

601
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 4: nine Ers and then the Steelers lose to Washington. So

602
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 4: on the surface is a by low Sell high spot

603
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 4: that is creating line value on the Steelers. But you

604
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 4: have to keep in mind the Steelers, this is our

605
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 4: third game in eleven days. That's brutal. You mentioned Robert Spalane,

606
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 4: another linebacker that's her Bush has already done hate Joe

607
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 4: eight in their corner. He's hurt. I don't know if

608
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 4: he can go Nelson their other corner. He's hurt. So

609
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 4: this is a really banged up defense that has played

610
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 4: one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They've also

611
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 4: benefited from a league leading twenty three turnovers, part of

612
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 4: which is because they've played so many backup quarterbacks. And

613
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 4: I mean Brian Dable for the Bills has just been amazing,

614
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 4: by the way, and the Bills lead the league in

615
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 4: third down conversion percentage. That's gonna be a battle in

616
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 4: this game the Steelers, just like there's gonna be some

617
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 4: potential wind in this game. The Steelers can't run the ball.

618
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 4: It is a huge issue and I've been saying it

619
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 4: all year. I mean Pitt run blocking. Let's take a

620
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,239
Speaker 4: look at PFF their starting offensive lineman. Out of one

621
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: hundred and eighty three qualified offensive lineman, this is where

622
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 4: they rank their respective rankings out of one hundred and

623
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 4: eighty three offensive linean, run blocking, one hundred and seventy first,

624
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 4: one hundred and sixty second, one hundred and sixtieth, one

625
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 4: hundred and second, one hundred and twenty seventh. They dont

626
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 4: have a single offensive lineman in the top one hundred

627
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 4: and run blocking. They have the lowest expected rushing yards

628
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 4: per attempt in the league. Their offensive line is thirtieth

629
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 4: and adjusted line yards. I mean, it's bad, and they're

630
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 4: number one of the Justin Zacharate on offense because Ben

631
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 4: just gets rid of the ball so quick. It's just

632
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 4: these seven eight yard passes. That's hard to sustain drives,

633
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 4: especially when you're dropping seven eight balls a game as

634
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 4: they are right now. You would expect some regression there

635
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 4: with the drops, but it's hard to move up and

636
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 4: down the field. There's no exposedness. Pittsburgh twenty ninth and

637
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 4: explosive play rate Buffalo top five in that department, and

638
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 4: Pitts aggressive d They can give up big plays, especially

639
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 4: their secondaries banged up and Buffalo where they've been most

640
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 4: vulnerable is against the run and giving up explosive runs.

641
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 4: That's not Pittsburgh's game at all. So there's a bunch

642
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 4: of things to be worried about with Pittsburgh. And it's crazy.

643
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,719
Speaker 4: You were with Pittsburgh last week against Washington. You were

644
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 4: playing them live to win, and then this week we

645
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 4: were telling everyone Pittsburgh's overrated because of their offense and

646
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 4: now their defense is banged up. But at the end

647
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 4: of the day, I've preached it all the time. This

648
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 4: is the classic Tomlin spot.

649
00:32:58,320 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 3: Yes he is.

650
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 4: Like, think about their last couple of games. They played

651
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 4: the Ravens backups. How flat were they they played Washington?

652
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 4: How flat were they even against Jacksonville they were it

653
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 4: was like zero zero through. We know how bad Jake

654
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 4: Lowton is now, they just come out flat for these

655
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 4: spots where their their favorites. He's the least profitable coach

656
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 4: as a double digit favorite in our database over the

657
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 4: past twenty years. But Tomlin as a road dog against

658
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 4: winning teams seventeen and five against the spread seventy seven

659
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 4: point three percent, covering by an average is six points

660
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 4: per game. That's Brady after a loss. Type numbers number

661
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 4: one of one hundred and twenty four Coach Interaction laps

662
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 4: database fifteen and seven straight up in those games. That's

663
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 4: as an underdog on the road against a team over

664
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 4: five hundred. He's fifteen and seven straight up in those games.

665
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 4: So it's a raw ro spot. Off the loss, we're

666
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 4: getting disrespected now, so the Steelers will be fired up

667
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 4: for this one. There could be I mentioned, there could

668
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 4: be wins, so keep an eye on that. I keep

669
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 4: going back in fourth on this. I do think that

670
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 4: the line is a little a little overvalued, and there's

671
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 4: there's value in in Pittsburgh. And I've tried to adjust

672
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 4: for the injuries in the situation and the matchup, and

673
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 4: there's still some value in Pittsburgh here. It's a good

674
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 4: tease teas piece still, So if you want to tease Pittsburgh,

675
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 4: which has come across the two and a half, you

676
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 4: tease them up to eight and a half. Perfect spot.

677
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 3: I wish they would just use like you know, they

678
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 3: they signed one of the best fullbacks in the league,

679
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 3: uh in Derek Watt, who's uh TJ's brother and JJ's brother.

680
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 4: Derek.

681
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 3: They have him, they have like a fullback, and they

682
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 3: have you know, Vance McDonald who's a blocking tight and

683
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 3: they never make their third tight end active, so they're

684
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 3: just completely uncommitted to the run. I would like to

685
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 3: see them just activate that third tight end and at least,

686
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 3: you know, give opposing defense is something to think about,

687
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 3: because you've seen this. You know running is not all

688
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 3: just okay. Our line is terrible. We can't get pushed,

689
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 3: we can't run. We saw the Giants last week, and

690
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 3: the Giants don't have a great offensive line.

691
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:56,959
Speaker 5: The Steelers, the Seahawks have been.

692
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 3: Great and run defense. But what did the Giants do.

693
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,399
Speaker 5: They just went big. They went three tight ends.

694
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 3: They know Evan Ingram is not gonna and that line

695
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 3: is not going to be able to box Seattle one

696
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 3: on one. But you put three tight ends in heavy

697
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 3: formation there, it's a whole different game.

698
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 5: And I just wish Pittsburgh would do some of that.

699
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 3: I think it would really help their offense instead of

700
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 3: because you're not only just doing the same thing every

701
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 3: time with these short passes, but you're not even giving

702
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 3: the defense really anything, you know, much to think about,

703
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 3: because even if you are going you know, it's a

704
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 3: different personnel group, it's still kind of the same formation.

705
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 3: It's still it's just Eric he brought instead of Ray,

706
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 3: Ray McLeod or or James Washington. So I do think

707
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 3: the Steelers and Randy Fickner need to switch it up.

708
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 3: But I do like the I like the situational spot

709
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 3: for Pittsburgh. I do think the Drops will regress. And again,

710
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 3: I just have Buffalo. I also knock them down a

711
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,240
Speaker 3: little for first strength and schedule. So it's really that simple.

712
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 3: It's just about about two and a half, you know,

713
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 3: about three points of value for me on the on

714
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 3: the line.

715
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 4: Be afraid of the Bills though, and the Bills are

716
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 4: gonna have a sight.

717
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 3: And oh I love the Bills. Sean mcgermott is like,

718
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 3: you know, Shaw mcgurmam.

719
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 4: Staff is awesome there. Yeah, he's up there.

720
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 3: This is not about Brian Davel.

721
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 4: He's gonna get a head coaching job.

722
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 3: Kind of jumped at the top of the list. I

723
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 3: think I'm hearing a lot of people say he's the

724
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: top now.

725
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:13,240
Speaker 4: He I mean, he just carved up Robert Solid last week. Now, granted,

726
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 4: the Bills did benefit from a bunch of corners. Richard

727
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 4: Sherman was back, but a couple of the other San

728
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 4: France corners were oute and they had like a fourth

729
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 4: string in the slot and they just abused San Frand.

730
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 4: But yeah, he's that whole staff's doing a tremendous job.

731
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 4: And Josh Allen, if he can just be more consistent,

732
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 4: as you said, look out all right for my second

733
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 4: pick in the Sunday six pack and the fourth overall,

734
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 4: this is bad, This is really bad. I'm going with

735
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 4: the Chicago Bears and Mitch Bortles plus one and a

736
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 4: half at bet MGM at home against the Houston Texans.

737
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 4: I can't believe him doing it.

738
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: You've just been bortled.

739
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 4: But again, this is a week where I didn't have

740
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 4: a ton of edges. I make Chicago a small favorite here,

741
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 4: and there's some things I do like about this matchup.

742
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 4: Number one, keep in mind that there's potentially twenty to

743
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 4: thirty maybe more mile on hour wind gusts all day

744
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,879
Speaker 4: in Chicago for this game, which is going to make

745
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 4: the running games even more important. I like the way

746
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 4: that the Bears used Montgomery and Patterson last week and

747
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 4: kind of mixing them in, and Montgomery has been playing

748
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 4: well lately. They'll be able to run on Houston. Houston's

749
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:43,240
Speaker 4: defensive line thirty first and adjusted lineyards Houston. By the way,

750
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 4: they have the thirty second ranked rush offensea and the

751
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 4: twenty sixth ranked run defense bears of a top five

752
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 4: run defense, and Houston defensive line is trash trash, I mean,

753
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 4: just they have nothing up the middle. The linebackers aren't

754
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 4: playing well. And on the offensive line, I mean, the

755
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 4: interior is so weak. I think kicks and they can

756
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 4: get interior pressure there. Right tackle Titus Howard, he can

757
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 4: be exploited Khalil Macket in practice today, but I expect

758
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 4: him to play. He could have a big day. And look,

759
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 4: this Texans seems just not the same without will Fuller.

760
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 4: I know Deshaun Watson's playing at such a high level,

761
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 4: but we've talked about how important will Fuller is to

762
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 4: that offense. And on the defensive side, they had no

763
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 4: corners left. Their starting corners this week are going to

764
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 4: be Phillip Gaines, I mean, and Hargreaves, who's one of

765
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 4: the worst corners in you look at PFF coverage grades

766
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,399
Speaker 4: games eighty seventh out of one hundred and forty seven

767
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 4: qualified corners, har Greaves one hundred and thirty fourth. Roby,

768
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 4: who was their shadow guy a lot of it for

769
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 4: a big part of the season, was twenty first. So

770
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 4: I think Alan Robinson could have a big impact here.

771
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 4: I like the way the Bears are using Cole Comet now.

772
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 5: Yeah instead of Jimmy Graham.

773
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 4: Yes, he's getting Jimmy Graham out of there. So there's

774
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 4: some things that the Bears offense I think have done

775
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 4: better of late. And I mean basically what this comest douta.

776
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 4: I mean the Bears have lost six in a row.

777
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 4: I'm buying. I don't think i've I did bet them

778
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 4: against the Bucks. I think that might be the only

779
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 4: time I bet them this year.

780
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 3: You called, you called the exact ending. I think it

781
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,959
Speaker 3: was like you called, like a winning field go by.

782
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 4: The special teams. It was a bit fortunate, but we

783
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 4: got we got the cover. But I'm gonna go. Look,

784
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 4: this is I'm buying Low and the Bears here and

785
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 4: the Texans. I think what's maybe driving this line is

786
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,720
Speaker 4: it's like Mitch Trubisky versus Deshaun Watts, Mitch Bortles versus

787
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson, and it's the revenge game. You know, Deshaun

788
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 4: Watson came out and said bereyde Pace like snubbed him

789
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 4: and didn't talk to him, and you know they ended

790
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 4: up drafting Mitch Trubisky ahead of him, and Holmes is

791
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 4: everyone had started a billion times and everyone's like, all right,

792
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 4: well this is gonna be Deshaun Watsons revenge you I'm

793
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 4: going anti narrative here, and what does that mean? Like

794
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson's gonna try harder, like he doesn't try hard

795
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 4: every Sunday like, and it actually if anything could work

796
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 4: against him, if he's like if he does go out

797
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 4: there and just try to, you know, instead of just

798
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 4: making the smart play like he wants to be Superman

799
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 4: in twenty to thirty mile an hour win gus against

800
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 4: a good defense, and maybe he has a bad forced

801
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 4: thrower two more than he normally does. I don't think

802
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,399
Speaker 4: this is like DeShawn watson revenge game, right, So now

803
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 4: he just he's like, all right, I'm gonna try a

804
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 4: little harder ThisDay. That's nonsense to me. So I think

805
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 4: the Bears a slight favorite here, so in which we

806
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 4: trust plus one and a half pray for me.

807
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny because you know, we talked about this

808
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 3: off air, and I kind of laughed when he made

809
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 3: it because I think you kind of expressed this similar

810
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: just like I can't believe I'm doing it, And I'm like,

811
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 3: I'm not even mad at you, because I too have

812
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 3: the Bears projected as a slight favorite, which is very odd,

813
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 3: very rare, but uh yeah, I have him by favored

814
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 3: by a half a point. And you know me, I'm

815
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 3: usually if there's any kind of kind of discrepancy and

816
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 3: I'm usually just gonna go with Watson here, But in

817
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 3: a windy situation with a depleted supporting cast in Will Fuller,

818
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 3: It's just it's a tough spot. And the Bears, by

819
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 3: the way, are number one in DV away against number

820
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 3: one receivers, So now you take away Brandon Cooks and

821
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 3: you're left with Chad Hansen, Stephen Kiki qt what had

822
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 3: a good game and Hanson did too, but and you're

823
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 3: kind of throwing to you know, tight ends in backs

824
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 3: and David Johnson. He's averaging four yards per carry for

825
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 3: the first time since twenty sixteen, and they're still ast

826
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 3: and rushing. So yeah, I'm not too bullish on this offense.

827
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 3: I think this is an under game as well. I

828
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 3: think this is a you know, Houston had a fast

829
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 3: start against the Coats, we still got that under to

830
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 3: hit somehow, because there was like three three points in

831
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 3: the second half, So you know, I think a lot

832
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 3: of people would think, you know, second half under maybe,

833
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 3: but I actually like the first half under in this

834
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 3: one Matt Naggy in his tenure with the Bears, the

835
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,280
Speaker 3: first half under when the line is twenty three year lower,

836
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 3: so essentially expected low scoring game. The first half unders

837
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 3: twenty eight and nine and it's seven and three this season,

838
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 3: so I think that we won't see much scoring and

839
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 3: that's not the way Houston is going to win the game.

840
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 2: Mostly Chicago.

841
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 3: For my third and the fifth overall pick of the

842
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 3: week fourteen Sunday six pack, this is ugly in a

843
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 3: whole different way, but don't usually do this, but I

844
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 3: couldn't pass it up, especially since we're getting to probably

845
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 3: the end of his tenure. So I'm betting against Adam

846
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 3: Gase Seattle minus thirteen at bet MGM. I just love

847
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 3: the boundspot for Seattle against Adam Gase against these Jets,

848
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 3: who I think you look at the results last week

849
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 3: and you say Seattle's trending down. They got backdoored against Philly.

850
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 3: Then they come out and they slew straight up to

851
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,800
Speaker 3: the Giants. Well, and I talked about this in my article.

852
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 3: The Giants are quickly establishing themselves and this speaks to

853
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 3: kind of you know, Joe Judge and Patrick Graham and

854
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 3: the Belichick coaching tree and all that. But the Giants

855
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 3: are establishing themselves as one of the best game plan.

856
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 5: Teams in the week.

857
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 3: Like they have no business even being as competitive as

858
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 3: they are, but their game plans have been excellent weekend

859
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,359
Speaker 3: and week out. The Jets just fired their defensive coordinator. Now,

860
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 3: in some ways that that's good for them, but it

861
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 3: doesn't exactly help things in the short term, especially the

862
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 3: way I think it would if you know, you fired

863
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 3: Adam Gase. This is a Jets team that's not going

864
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 3: to get pressure, that can't cover that.

865
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 5: You know, it's it's not going to be schemed.

866
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 3: As well as for example, the Giants last week, or

867
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 3: even the Eagles under Schwartz the week before, and then

868
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 3: on the on the other side of the ball, this

869
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 3: is still the Jets offense. I mean, the Jets offense

870
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 3: finally got something going against the Raiders that was, you know,

871
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 3: one of the weeks worst defenses.

872
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 5: Seattle used to be one of the Wag's worst defenses.

873
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:13,240
Speaker 5: They're improving.

874
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 3: And by the way, Jamal Adams probably everywhere in his game,

875
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 3: you know, prevent spot for him. But Seattle has improved

876
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 3: massively on defense since you kind of you got Adams

877
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 3: and you got done Web. You had given up twenty

878
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 3: four to the Rams, you give up you know, under

879
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 3: twenty to the Eagles, you give up even in the

880
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 3: loss of the Giants, you give up seventeen that's kind

881
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 3: of expected, but overall, and then you give up what

882
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 3: was it, twenty one to the Cardinals. So this Seahawks

883
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,360
Speaker 3: defense has not been a defense that's now getting blasted

884
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 3: the way it was earlier in the year. And I

885
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 3: don't think the Jets really have the the personnelity take

886
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 3: advantage of that either. So and then on top of that,

887
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,840
Speaker 3: you're getting the situational spot. Last week I talked about

888
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 3: this that was one of the few Adam Gay spots

889
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: where you actually want to back Adam Gase. I think

890
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: he was like six and two coming off a loss. Again,

891
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 3: it's a non divisional opponent at home. Well, in this spot,

892
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 3: this is when you want to fade Gase. And it

893
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 3: seems counterintuitive because usually he's not the spreads you want

894
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 3: to bet. But Adam Gase as a road underdog plus

895
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 3: five and a half or more five and eighteen against

896
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 3: the spread. That's a twenty two percent cover rate, which

897
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 3: means the opponent's covering seventy eight percent of the time

898
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 3: four and one this season, and the numbers the percentage

899
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 3: holds just as high when you look at double digit

900
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 3: spreads and then Pete Carroll and russ Off a loss

901
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 3: twenty five and thirteen sixty six percent against the spread

902
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 3: two and one this season. So just a big bounce

903
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 3: back spot for Seattle. I have this over two touchdowns

904
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 3: and so I like the thirteen here about MGM.

905
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 5: Be sure to shop around.

906
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 3: I've seen some thirteen and a half out there as well,

907
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 3: but I think this is a Seattle smash spot.

908
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 4: Brandon Shelter tackle might be the most important player in

909
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 4: the league this week because last week all the all

910
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 4: Seattle's tackles got hurt and Chad Wheeler came in. That

911
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 4: was the worst tackle performance I've ever seen in my

912
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 4: entire life. In that fourth he looked like he never

913
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 4: played offensive line in his life. It looked like they

914
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 4: just went and grabbed the hot dog guy on the

915
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 4: street and said you'll come in here and play.

916
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 3: He used to.

917
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 4: I think he was the Giants tackle for Eli Manning

918
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 4: that last year too. The Seals offensive line was bad.

919
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:31,719
Speaker 4: Wilson was really bad that game. And look, I I'm

920
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 4: not a fan of laying double digits in the NFL,

921
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 4: but I will say that if you're going to do it,

922
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 4: you because double digit dogs in the NFL historically have

923
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,799
Speaker 4: been profitable. But the Jets, they buck mosts. They're two

924
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 4: and nine against the spread. It's a double digit underdog

925
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 4: since the start of twenty sixteen, two and nine only

926
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 4: the Jets. The only thing that would concern me here

927
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 4: is it's the Seahawks. Can they win by more than

928
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 4: one possession? There's like a law of NFL betting that

929
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 4: they have to play one possession games every week and

930
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 4: it always comes down to the wire. But maybe the

931
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 4: Jets are just that bad. So yeah, it'll be interesting

932
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:23,360
Speaker 4: saying what the Jets defense does. Are they gonna change

933
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 4: up everything, They're gonna play a lot of zone like

934
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 4: the Giants did. But this defense is no good. I mean,

935
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson should bounce back here. So I don't hate it.

936
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 4: I make it close to fourteen, and I'm not certainly

937
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 4: not betting the Jets here, and it's fucked up, but

938
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 4: that is the way it is. For my third pick

939
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 4: and the final pick of the Sunday six pack, I

940
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 4: have Mitch Bortle sandwiched in between Tom Brady, who's gonna

941
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 4: go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time,

942
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,919
Speaker 4: and Patrick Mahomes, who might go down as the greatest

943
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,279
Speaker 4: quarterback of all time. For my third pick, I'll go

944
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 4: the Kansas City Chiefs seven at that MGM at the Dolphins.

945
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 4: First of all, people are saying the Chiefs are going

946
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 4: down to Miami and they have the Saints on decks,

947
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 4: they're gonna be looking at what the fuck is that?

948
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 2: Though?

949
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 4: This this game is way more important to the Chiefs.

950
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 4: If they're gonna lose a game the rest of the way,

951
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:19,760
Speaker 4: you would want to You would rather lose the Saints.

952
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 4: You'd rather lose an NFC game. They're trying to get

953
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 4: the one seed, and right now the Steelers have the

954
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 4: advantage because they lost an ns to an NFC team,

955
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 4: But the Chiefs can still get there if the Steelers

956
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 4: drop another game, and this game is important to them.

957
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 4: They're not looking ahead of the Saints everybody. I've heard

958
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 4: that a bunch, and like what, the Chiefs have come

959
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 4: out a little flat, and I think they have had

960
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 4: a little Super Bowl hangover and they've you know, I

961
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 4: think in like seven seven games this year, they've been

962
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 4: either trailing or leading by less than three at the half.

963
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 4: But I just think this is a great matchup for

964
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:57,760
Speaker 4: the Chiefs. I get the Dolphins defense has been great,

965
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 4: and this is the same defense that you're gonna see

966
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 4: in Baltimore.

967
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 2: Right.

968
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 4: They have good corners on the outside, and Howard and Jones.

969
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:10,319
Speaker 4: They blitz a ton, They're gonna play a lot, They're

970
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 4: gonna play as much cover zeros as anybody in the

971
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 4: league cover one. It's the Bill Belichick Tree.

972
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 5: Actually want to ask you about that.

973
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:18,920
Speaker 3: Do you do you think they really will because the

974
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:23,800
Speaker 3: way that year, yeah, right is sit back.

975
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, so that's but here's the thing, that's all that's

976
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 4: their identity. It's the same problem that the Raivens have.

977
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 4: Now if I'll get to if they don't, I don't

978
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 4: think that they should. But that's the only way they're

979
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 4: able to generate pressure too, And that's just just what

980
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 4: they do. They blitz and they play a ton of

981
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 4: men on the outside, which is a nightmare against Patrick Moons.

982
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:42,879
Speaker 4: We know that you don't blitz Patrick wan. You can't

983
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 4: blitz he just goes. He just runs backwards and then

984
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 4: throws it further and you can't just you can't cover

985
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 4: their receivers long enough. And you know, the Dolphins defense

986
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 4: has been great, but it's been great against you know,

987
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 4: average slightly above below average bad offenses. They do lead

988
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 4: the NFL and third down defense and it's been a

989
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 4: good defense, but their second in the NFL and turnovers,

990
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 4: there's some regression coming there. They've been very fortunate in

991
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 4: special teams. I know they have a good special teams,

992
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 4: you know, but they've been lucky in that department as well.

993
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 4: And guess what they benefit of ton turnovers. Mahomes doesn't

994
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 4: turn the ball over. And so I think this is

995
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 4: go back to when the Dolphins played the Bills. Go

996
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 4: back to when and you know, like this defense can

997
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 4: be got and when the Chiefs have played similar defenses,

998
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 4: the Ravens, the Bucks, the blitz play out a man,

999
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 4: they've carved him up, and it's Toua on the other side.

1000
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:46,760
Speaker 4: It's a huge, huge quarterback mismatch. I know, toa look better.

1001
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 4: Last week it was against the Bengals. He's still and

1002
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 4: I know he's dealing with the handager. I'm assuming he

1003
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 4: starts and plays for this because I do have a

1004
00:50:56,960 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 4: downgrade between Fitzpatrick and him, and I have tour right now.

1005
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:04,400
Speaker 4: Granted as the thirty fifth ranked passer out of forty

1006
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 4: quarterbacks with at least one hundred dropbacks this year, he's

1007
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 4: basically almost dead, even with Carson Wentz.

1008
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 3: Where's there's Jamie Hurts A oh, he doesn't have a

1009
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 3: hundred now.

1010
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:18,919
Speaker 4: It Hurts doesn't have one hundred. I don't. I don't

1011
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 4: know where he would be. It's like it's in the

1012
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:24,240
Speaker 4: territory of like Lwton Darnold.

1013
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 3: Where's Dalton?

1014
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 4: Dalton is like I think twenty ninth.

1015
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:33,280
Speaker 5: That's too high, too high, and.

1016
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 4: I mean Dalton. If you watch Dalton, then you watch

1017
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 4: some of these other quarterbacks. He's he looks better than

1018
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,399
Speaker 4: some of them at like till your last night. Yeah,

1019
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 4: but I'm just saying he's at least doing that.

1020
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been ugly with it, Yes.

1021
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 4: It's been ugly. So I mean I think that he's

1022
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 4: gonna make mistakes, and I think this is a great

1023
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 4: matchup for the Chiefs. And then look if the Dolphins

1024
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 4: do decide to just drop back, you know what the

1025
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,799
Speaker 4: Chiefs are gonna do. They're gonna grind all the way

1026
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 4: down the field and hand it off. And the Biomi's

1027
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 4: run defense is horrendous, horrendous, So they're just gonna run

1028
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 4: all the way down the field and I don't think

1029
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 4: TUA can keep up. I know that the Chiefs defense

1030
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 4: has issues, but they're gonna blit them, force them into

1031
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 4: some mistakes and I think the Chiefs role here. So

1032
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 4: give me Kansas City minus seven.

1033
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:27,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is also one of the premier spots for

1034
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 3: Andy Reid going on the road eighty three and fifty five,

1035
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 3: sixty percent against the spread. Andy Reid, you know, just

1036
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 3: with k C because that that's his entire career, But

1037
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 3: with k C thirty nine, twenty one and one on

1038
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 3: the road, sixty five percent, that's he's almost doubling up

1039
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 3: against the spread on the road. That's that's absurd. Now,

1040
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 3: this year's three and three, but probably just due for

1041
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 3: some regression. And then Andy Reid with case when the

1042
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:58,359
Speaker 3: opponent is on their second straight or more at home,

1043
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,400
Speaker 3: it's fourteen and seven again to spread sixty seven percent.

1044
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 3: So this is really you know spots. Andy Reid has

1045
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 3: excelled at Now Brian Flores is making a name for

1046
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 3: himself as well. The one thing with him is when

1047
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 3: he's been a favorite or a dog by less than

1048
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 3: eleven so you know, kind of throwing out some of

1049
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 3: those early Dolphins games where they were like twenty point underdogs.

1050
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 3: He's now thirteen and six against the spread, so he's

1051
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 3: he's you know, coached his team well. But I think

1052
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 3: this is where he kind of meets his match. And

1053
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 3: Andy Reid though he has had success against Belichick, so

1054
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 3: you know, why wouldn't he have success against Flora That. Yeah,

1055
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 3: I agree. I think it's a big, big quarterback mismatch.

1056
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 7: Take to the Pae.

1057
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 3: So that is going to wrap it for this week's

1058
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack. To recap, Stucky went with the Tampa

1059
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:56,080
Speaker 3: Bay Bucks minus six and a half at home against

1060
00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 3: the Vikings, the Bears plus one and a half at

1061
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:02,800
Speaker 3: home against the Houston Texans, and the Chiefs seven point

1062
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 3: favorites on the road against the Dolphins. I went with

1063
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 3: the Falcons two and a half point favorites at the Chargers.

1064
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 3: The Steelers two and a half point dogs at Buffalo

1065
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:18,319
Speaker 3: and Seattle Mayas thirteen at home against the Jets. Going

1066
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:21,400
Speaker 3: to go straight into our coaches pep talk this weekend.

1067
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 3: Today's coaches pep Talk comes to us from the nineteen

1068
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 3: fifty five movie Mister Roberts, and we're dedicating it.

1069
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 5: It's Anthony Wennon those charges.

1070
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 4: You guys are wonderful to me.

1071
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 7: I don't mention it now, think you almost deserve it.

1072
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 4: What do you really think of me? Honestly, I like you.

1073
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 7: There's no getting around the fact you're a realctable guy.

1074
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 7: Yeah yeah, but what well? I also think you're the

1075
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 7: most hapless, lazy, disorganized, and in general the most lecturous

1076
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 7: person I've ever known in my life. The day you

1077
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:59,320
Speaker 7: finished one thing you started out to do, that's today.

1078
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 7: I'll have some respect for you. That's today. I'll look

1079
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 7: up to you as a man. Okay, okay, all right.

1080
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 3: And just as a reminder, you know Stucky already mentioned

1081
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 3: the app. You can follow him at Stucky two. You

1082
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 3: can follow me at Chris Raymond, and you can also

1083
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,280
Speaker 3: follow the Picks of the Pod. Just search for Sunday

1084
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 3: six pack of the Action Network apps. Follow feature and

1085
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 3: you can see the picks. Next up, we have our

1086
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 3: favorite over under plays of the week. Take us away

1087
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 3: with the total.

1088
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:32,839
Speaker 4: I was gonna go with the Chargers Falcons over, which

1089
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:36,359
Speaker 4: I do like and did bet, but totals have been

1090
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:41,560
Speaker 4: hot for weeks, and mainly because I've been going with

1091
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 4: a consistent theme, and I'll go back to that here

1092
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:51,160
Speaker 4: and I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks and New York

1093
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 4: Jets under forty five and a half at BETAMGM talked

1094
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:59,240
Speaker 4: about it at nauseum over the past few weeks. Seahawks

1095
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 4: defense is and they're getting more conservative on offense. They've

1096
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 4: had some injuries in the offensive line. I'm afraid Jamal

1097
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 4: Adams is going to have two defensive touchdowns the one

1098
00:56:08,520 --> 00:56:10,879
Speaker 4: thing in the revenge game for him. But the Jets

1099
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:14,360
Speaker 4: offense stakes, they're dealing with some injuries as well. I

1100
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 4: think that the Seahawks come out, they run all over

1101
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 4: the Jets. Russell Wilson in a couple of big plays,

1102
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:24,799
Speaker 4: Seattle shuts down the Jets offense, and Seattle goes under again.

1103
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 4: They flipped from pure overteam to a peer under team.

1104
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:29,399
Speaker 4: So back to the Seahawks under.

1105
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:30,880
Speaker 5: For me, the Jets.

1106
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:33,360
Speaker 3: It's really you know, when you look at their games,

1107
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 3: it's it's a question of are they going to be

1108
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 3: able to kind of live up to their side of

1109
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 3: the bargain. And you look at who they played last week,

1110
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 3: the Raiders, that's the team that the Jets can move

1111
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 3: the ball on this week. Is crazy as it sounds.

1112
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:46,840
Speaker 3: I don't think the Jets will have much offensive success

1113
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,160
Speaker 3: just based on what I see how the Seahawks defense

1114
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:51,400
Speaker 3: over the past month. So I don't hate it.

1115
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 5: I think the one thing you have to be.

1116
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 3: Careful with is if the Seahawks, you know, do look

1117
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 3: at that Jets defensive line. That's kind of their strength

1118
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:00,879
Speaker 3: is defending the right and they've given up like one

1119
00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:01,800
Speaker 3: or two big run.

1120
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:04,200
Speaker 5: Plays that have inflated their yard per carry.

1121
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 3: But if you look at their justin lineyards, there's still

1122
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 3: a very good against running backs. So that's the one

1123
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:11,800
Speaker 3: thing you got to hope the Seahawks don't, like actually

1124
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 3: decide to go back to that early let Russ cook.

1125
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 3: But even if they do, I think they should have

1126
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 3: no problem kind of pulling away. And at the end

1127
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:21,920
Speaker 3: of the day, I also don't think the Jets will

1128
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 3: score much, so I think you still have a margin

1129
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 3: for error even if the Seahawks go a little more

1130
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 3: pass heavy early. For my total, I am going with

1131
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:38,880
Speaker 3: the most dependable total in the NFL over the past

1132
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:43,040
Speaker 3: year and a half, and one that I think some

1133
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 3: people will be on the other side of because it's

1134
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 3: a late you're divisional under, but I don't care. I

1135
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 3: think that this is a another great spot based on

1136
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,919
Speaker 3: the defenses, and that is the Titans and Jaguars over

1137
00:57:56,960 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 3: fifty two and a half. The Titans going in Jags,

1138
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 3: you have Derrick Henry, who always you know, gets better

1139
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 3: in December. You have Corey Davis playing well, you have

1140
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 3: a j Brown playing well, Ryan Tannehill the play Action game.

1141
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 3: And then on the other side, the one issue, the

1142
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 3: one where I do have for Jacksonville is Brandon Winder.

1143
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 5: It looks like he's going to be out their center.

1144
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:21,400
Speaker 3: But Jacksonville has been able to score and kind of

1145
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 3: stick with some teams lately. Pittsburgh's really the only one

1146
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 3: they weren't able to have any kind of offense against,

1147
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:30,280
Speaker 3: and that's even with Mike Glennon. Like Jacksonville's receivers love

1148
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 3: James Robinson, and you know, we saw this Titans defense,

1149
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:35,400
Speaker 3: Like I thought.

1150
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 5: It was improving.

1151
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 3: It had played well, but I mean the display that

1152
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 3: the defense showed in that first half against Cleveland was

1153
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 3: one of the worst defensive performances I've ever seen in

1154
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 3: my life. But this just kind of goes back to

1155
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:50,480
Speaker 3: how these Titans are playing and over this. You know,

1156
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 3: past one and a half years with Ryan Tannehill in

1157
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 3: that play action game, they are twenty one and four

1158
00:58:58,880 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 3: to the.

1159
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:00,760
Speaker 5: Over only one in four.

1160
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 3: Now, last year they came out they were a surprise

1161
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 3: over team. They say, Okay, this year the market's gonna react.

1162
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 3: Overs have been killing. There's no way they're making these

1163
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 3: totals for the Titans too low. Titans over is nine

1164
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 3: and two this year with one push.

1165
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 5: I'm gonna keep going. It's just like Anthony Wynn.

1166
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna keep going back to it until they prove

1167
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 3: that they're not that this is not the kind of

1168
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 3: game script that they are going to playton.

1169
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:29,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't hate if this the Then they played

1170
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:32,960
Speaker 4: the first meeting, I think the Titans won thirty three

1171
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 4: thirty on the last second field goal by Goskowski and

1172
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 4: the Jags they have one win. They played in seven

1173
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 4: to one possession games. It looks like a feisty team. Yeah,

1174
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 4: the Titans defense is so I mean, the Jags defense

1175
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:48,840
Speaker 4: is terrible. It's a bottom three defense by any no

1176
00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 4: matter who you were asking. The Titans defense is horrendous.

1177
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:54,800
Speaker 4: Then maybe they get a Dory Jackson back in practice

1178
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 4: today that could help get a real pressure. It's just

1179
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:02,520
Speaker 4: a fake of our imagination. But the Titans. They're allowing

1180
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 4: teams to score touchdowns on seventy three percent of red

1181
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 4: zone trips at the only the Chiefs are actually worst. Yeah,

1182
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 4: Titans with thirty four.

1183
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 3: You know why right, because you know they practice against

1184
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 3: their own offense, which scores like eighty percent of the time,

1185
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 3: and it just carries right over to the game. They

1186
01:00:17,920 --> 01:00:19,960
Speaker 3: just give up the exact same rate.

1187
01:00:19,920 --> 01:00:20,439
Speaker 5: You know what I mean.

1188
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:26,160
Speaker 4: And they're allowing teams to convert them third downs fifty

1189
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 4: three point five to seven percent of the time. That's incredible,

1190
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 4: dead last NFL. They get no pressure and they can't

1191
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 4: cover on the back end. I mean, it's not going

1192
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 4: to work in today's NFL. So yeah, I don't disagree

1193
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 4: with you there.

1194
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 3: And uh, just as if anyone's kind of looking to

1195
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:44,600
Speaker 3: bet the aside in this game. I do expect the

1196
01:00:44,600 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 3: Titans to rebound in it in the first half. I

1197
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 3: don't know if their defense is good enough to hold

1198
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:51,400
Speaker 3: them and check the whole game. But if you look

1199
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 3: at Doug Maroone's team since the start of last season,

1200
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 3: they are four and twenty three when it comes to

1201
01:00:57,200 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 3: winning the first half. So you know, Titans for have

1202
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 3: money line something to look at in this one as well.

1203
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,280
Speaker 3: Those are our favorite total stucky going Seahawk Jets under

1204
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 3: forty five and a half. I'm going takey Jags over

1205
01:01:09,800 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 3: fifty two and a half. Make sure you shop for

1206
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 3: the best line. Have also seen some fifty threes out

1207
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 3: there have it over fifty four, so I don't hate

1208
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 3: the fifty three, but I would prefer, you know, obviously

1209
01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 3: getting the lowest number.

1210
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,720
Speaker 8: The NFL season is upon us, and our friends at

1211
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1214
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:40,520
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1220
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:00,320
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1221
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:03,880
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1222
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:05,800
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1223
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:07,200
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1224
01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:09,640
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1225
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1226
01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:14,520
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1227
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1228
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1229
01:02:17,920 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 2: And now back to the show.

1230
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 5: Let's go into our favorite teasers of the week.

1231
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:28,720
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers for.

1232
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:31,640
Speaker 3: Those not familiar teasers. When you combine two or more

1233
01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:34,360
Speaker 3: spread bets or or really you could do it with

1234
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:36,919
Speaker 3: other bets, but do it with the spread here, each

1235
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:40,720
Speaker 3: bet you get an additional six points in a standard

1236
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:44,640
Speaker 3: six point teaser against towards the spread. So, for example,

1237
01:02:44,640 --> 01:02:47,920
Speaker 3: if you're betting an eight point favorite, they become just

1238
01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 3: a two point favorite, and if you're also teasing them

1239
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:53,920
Speaker 3: with an eight point underdog. For example, that underdog becomes

1240
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:58,000
Speaker 3: plus fourteen, so you're getting six points for each leg

1241
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:01,040
Speaker 3: of the bet. Stuck. He has a great content out

1242
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 3: on actionetwork dot com where he explains.

1243
01:03:03,800 --> 01:03:05,080
Speaker 5: Exactly how to bet teasers.

1244
01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 3: There are certain key numbers that you're looking to tease

1245
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 3: the six points through, and this weekend particular, Stuck. I

1246
01:03:09,920 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 3: know you have a piece out already that everybody should

1247
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 3: go check out on Action network dot com or in

1248
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:18,080
Speaker 3: the Action Network app that goes over the what's a

1249
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 3: pretty large amount of teaser teasing options? Teaser options for

1250
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 3: this week fourteen slaying games.

1251
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:27,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, a ton of options if you haven't checked out

1252
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:30,600
Speaker 4: the piece. And as if you assume Lin's get more

1253
01:03:30,600 --> 01:03:35,240
Speaker 4: efficient as the year goes on, and with increased efficiency

1254
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 4: in a betting market, an NFL betting market, teasers become

1255
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:41,120
Speaker 4: even more valuable then. So I think it's a really

1256
01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:43,480
Speaker 4: good week to use teasers if you can cross the

1257
01:03:43,520 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 4: three and seven, which you can do with a number

1258
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:47,680
Speaker 4: of different games. I have a couple options out there.

1259
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:52,280
Speaker 4: I'll throw two out there. I'll go with the Giants,

1260
01:03:52,600 --> 01:03:54,320
Speaker 4: teasing them from plus two and a half up to

1261
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 4: plus eight and a half. And I'll go with the

1262
01:03:57,240 --> 01:03:59,480
Speaker 4: Raiders plus two and a half up to plus eight

1263
01:03:59,520 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 4: and a half. I make both of those lines under

1264
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:03,560
Speaker 4: two and a half, So there's value just in the

1265
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:07,920
Speaker 4: lines anyway per my number. So teasing them up through three, four, six,

1266
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:11,440
Speaker 4: and seven works for me. And eight eight's now growing

1267
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:14,600
Speaker 4: in importance because teams go for two in different situations

1268
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:17,000
Speaker 4: late when they're down fourteen to score a touchdown. So

1269
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:19,400
Speaker 4: I'm getting over eight in both of these. The Giants,

1270
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 4: all they do outside of that San Frang game is

1271
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 4: they play close games and they're competitive. They're well coached.

1272
01:04:26,880 --> 01:04:30,040
Speaker 4: The Cardinals have flaws on defense. I'm not sure Kyler

1273
01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 4: Murray is all the way right. The one thing that

1274
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 4: scares me in this game while I'm not playing it

1275
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:36,840
Speaker 4: straight and I'd rather tease it. I mentioned the Giants

1276
01:04:36,880 --> 01:04:40,520
Speaker 4: red zone offense. Some of these things in small sample sizes,

1277
01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 4: there's a lot of noise and you can see regression

1278
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:45,840
Speaker 4: in red zone numbers. But the Giants red zone offense

1279
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 4: is they're only scoring touch ons like forty eight point

1280
01:04:48,400 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 4: five percent of their trips. That's thirty first the NFL,

1281
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:52,920
Speaker 4: only in front of the Jets. The Cards are number

1282
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 4: one in the NFL seventy six percent. So why do

1283
01:04:57,600 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 4: I think it's just not noise and variants. Well, Kyler

1284
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 4: Murray and his legs, the Cardinals running game, they have

1285
01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 4: you know, Hopkins, and they have talented possession receivers. There's

1286
01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:11,160
Speaker 4: a lot of things to like about the Cardinals offense

1287
01:05:11,400 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 4: with Murray creating and that spread you out run game

1288
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 4: in the red zone. So that could end up being

1289
01:05:19,640 --> 01:05:21,440
Speaker 4: the difference. But I still like the Giants to keep

1290
01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:25,960
Speaker 4: this close within one possession. And then the Raiders. Look,

1291
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:29,720
Speaker 4: the Colts have injuries on the offensive line, particularly at tackle,

1292
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 4: and I think Philip Rivers, yeah, you never know. In

1293
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:37,920
Speaker 4: this foot he was left in a boot. He's not

1294
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:40,840
Speaker 4: stepping into all his throws. From what I'm seeing, that

1295
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:45,560
Speaker 4: might cost him a pick or two. And the Colts

1296
01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:47,960
Speaker 4: offense is just yeah, I mean just no matter where

1297
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 4: you look, it's just not a great offense. And I

1298
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:55,800
Speaker 4: know the Raiders aren't a great defense, but I think

1299
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:58,480
Speaker 4: the Raiders also can move the ball. Their car is

1300
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:01,200
Speaker 4: really good about finding salt pockets and zones, and the

1301
01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 4: Colts play a ton of zone defense. You could have

1302
01:06:03,680 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 4: Josh Jacobs and Trent Brown back, which will would obviously help,

1303
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 4: but even if not, I still like teasing this up here.

1304
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 4: The Raiders, the third down offense is just so much

1305
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 4: more efficient. I think that they're going to be able

1306
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:19,720
Speaker 4: to sustain drives with more ease than the Colts. For

1307
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:22,920
Speaker 4: twenty ninth in the NFL and third down percentage, the

1308
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 4: Raiders are third. Derek Card you have to give him credit.

1309
01:06:26,120 --> 01:06:27,800
Speaker 4: He's playing at a really high level. You have that

1310
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:30,440
Speaker 4: stinker a couple of weeks ago. But I like the

1311
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:34,000
Speaker 4: matchup of this Raiders offense against the Colts zone defense,

1312
01:06:34,040 --> 01:06:35,880
Speaker 4: and I think there's a lot of issues on the

1313
01:06:35,880 --> 01:06:40,280
Speaker 4: Colts offense. So I think the Raiders can certainly keep

1314
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 4: this within a touchdown and then if not, you have

1315
01:06:43,320 --> 01:06:45,640
Speaker 4: you know, Derek Carr and company are down fourteen late,

1316
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:46,960
Speaker 4: he can go down and get you a touchdown to

1317
01:06:47,400 --> 01:06:50,080
Speaker 4: get into this number. So give me the Raiders and

1318
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 4: the Giants to at least keep this keep each game

1319
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:53,840
Speaker 4: within one possession.

1320
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:56,920
Speaker 5: Yeah. The Giants, yeah, I love them as a teaser.

1321
01:06:57,160 --> 01:07:00,760
Speaker 3: They have lost by more than one possession just twice

1322
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:04,400
Speaker 3: all year. Once was to that Steelers team, and then

1323
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 3: that was in Week one. They cover teams there, right,

1324
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 3: and then you would have the big loss to the Niners,

1325
01:07:11,200 --> 01:07:13,840
Speaker 3: and kind of that just their worst game of the year.

1326
01:07:14,280 --> 01:07:16,720
Speaker 3: So since Week four, every game, every game that they've

1327
01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:19,479
Speaker 3: lost has been eight points or less. So you tease

1328
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:21,600
Speaker 3: them here, you get to eight and a half. And

1329
01:07:21,800 --> 01:07:24,880
Speaker 3: you know, keep in mind that Cliff Kingsbury as a

1330
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:29,560
Speaker 3: straight up, you know favorite, has actually lost.

1331
01:07:29,320 --> 01:07:30,240
Speaker 5: More time than he's one.

1332
01:07:30,280 --> 01:07:34,400
Speaker 3: He's three and five as a you know, straight up

1333
01:07:34,560 --> 01:07:39,480
Speaker 3: moneyline favorite. So the Giants, they what they do is

1334
01:07:39,520 --> 01:07:43,760
Speaker 3: they game plan extremely well against teams and that's why

1335
01:07:43,840 --> 01:07:47,080
Speaker 3: you see them keeping games close, even though their talent

1336
01:07:47,160 --> 01:07:49,200
Speaker 3: level and even some of their underlying metrics would suggest

1337
01:07:49,200 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 3: that they shouldn't be in these games the way they

1338
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:53,880
Speaker 3: are so like them and then I already mentioned it,

1339
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:56,800
Speaker 3: but you talk about it like the Bucks, teasing them

1340
01:07:56,800 --> 01:07:59,360
Speaker 3: down to a half point, essentially picking them to win

1341
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:02,600
Speaker 3: against vulnerable Vikings teams.

1342
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:04,840
Speaker 5: So Giants Bucks for me, all right, those are our teasers.

1343
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:09,480
Speaker 3: Stuck's going Giants Raiders, I'm going Giants Bucks. Now it's

1344
01:08:09,480 --> 01:08:12,000
Speaker 3: time for our money line underdog.

1345
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:20,360
Speaker 1: Parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1346
01:08:20,520 --> 01:08:22,040
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

1347
01:08:23,160 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 3: All right? Is that who you got Jets almost almost

1348
01:08:25,360 --> 01:08:28,760
Speaker 3: came through from you, athlete. But you know, Creig Williams.

1349
01:08:28,439 --> 01:08:31,000
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals. Looks like they're about

1350
01:08:31,000 --> 01:08:33,960
Speaker 4: three and a half point home underdogs to the Cowboys.

1351
01:08:34,320 --> 01:08:36,320
Speaker 4: I don't see a ton of value in the line,

1352
01:08:36,840 --> 01:08:40,559
Speaker 4: but this is a good underdog money line to take

1353
01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:45,759
Speaker 4: because it's a great spot. The Cowboys season essentially ended

1354
01:08:46,320 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 4: last night Tuesday night in Baltimore with a loss, and

1355
01:08:51,400 --> 01:08:55,800
Speaker 4: now they're on an extremely short week, four day week

1356
01:08:56,240 --> 01:09:00,360
Speaker 4: and go from Baltimore to play lowly Cincinnati. I know,

1357
01:09:00,520 --> 01:09:02,920
Speaker 4: I'm not going to sit here and brag anything about Cincinnati.

1358
01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:05,200
Speaker 4: I mean, their quarterback. I mean, there's nothing for me

1359
01:09:05,280 --> 01:09:09,400
Speaker 4: to say. This is just the Cowboys might come out

1360
01:09:09,400 --> 01:09:16,120
Speaker 4: here and lay a complete egg. So give me the Bengals.

1361
01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:19,519
Speaker 3: Also, this is a very feisty Bengal team. I mean

1362
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:22,280
Speaker 3: they were getting directed in like droves last week, just

1363
01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:27,360
Speaker 3: like mercilessly, just punishing like the punt returner you know

1364
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 3: from Miami, Jaquem Grant, just like just a ton of

1365
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 3: skirmishes and scuffles. And now you're going against this Cowboy

1366
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:36,840
Speaker 3: team who I think it's hilarious because remember what happened

1367
01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:39,679
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago in that in that first Washington

1368
01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:42,759
Speaker 3: game when Andy Dalton got knocked out and no Cowboy

1369
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 3: stood up for him, Like they're all just kind of

1370
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:47,280
Speaker 3: standing around him in a heap, and like, no, you know,

1371
01:09:47,360 --> 01:09:49,360
Speaker 3: usually when when there's a dirty hitt and boss that

1372
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:51,120
Speaker 3: got ejected, you see the guys you know, run up

1373
01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:53,400
Speaker 3: in his face. You know, somebody has to be held back.

1374
01:09:53,439 --> 01:09:54,920
Speaker 3: But there was none of that. So now you're going

1375
01:09:54,960 --> 01:09:57,559
Speaker 3: against this Bengals team that they showed that like their

1376
01:09:57,600 --> 01:10:00,280
Speaker 3: season has been over, but they're there. There's the playing

1377
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:02,559
Speaker 3: with the edge. So I do think like this is

1378
01:10:02,920 --> 01:10:04,920
Speaker 3: technically the Cowboys to have like a one and a

1379
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:07,080
Speaker 3: half percent chance to make the playoffs if they were

1380
01:10:07,120 --> 01:10:09,559
Speaker 3: able to win out, just you know, as of right now,

1381
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 3: based on the fact that we don't know the outcomes

1382
01:10:12,320 --> 01:10:14,560
Speaker 3: of the other games yet, if they were to win out,

1383
01:10:14,680 --> 01:10:18,040
Speaker 3: in theory, their playoff chances could rise back up to

1384
01:10:18,120 --> 01:10:21,599
Speaker 3: his highest thirty three percent. So like, technically, like this

1385
01:10:21,680 --> 01:10:24,920
Speaker 3: is actually a trap game for them, But either way,

1386
01:10:25,120 --> 01:10:28,639
Speaker 3: it's it's just a game where I think Cincinnati has

1387
01:10:28,760 --> 01:10:30,240
Speaker 3: like they're gonna come out with more of an edge,

1388
01:10:30,280 --> 01:10:33,559
Speaker 3: and I make this essentially a pick them, so, uh yeah,

1389
01:10:33,600 --> 01:10:33,880
Speaker 3: I don't.

1390
01:10:33,920 --> 01:10:34,720
Speaker 5: I don't hate that at all.

1391
01:10:34,720 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 3: It's it's scary to bet Cincinnati win a game, but

1392
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:38,880
Speaker 3: it's the Dalton revenge spot.

1393
01:10:38,920 --> 01:10:41,000
Speaker 5: But who wants more revenge? Cincinnati for all the years

1394
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:43,360
Speaker 5: Dalton wasted or or Dalton.

1395
01:10:43,760 --> 01:10:44,800
Speaker 3: I feel like it's Cincinnati.

1396
01:10:45,120 --> 01:10:47,000
Speaker 4: What's he gonna do? Try harder because he's playing the

1397
01:10:47,000 --> 01:10:47,719
Speaker 4: Bengals like.

1398
01:10:48,000 --> 01:10:49,240
Speaker 5: It's just everything's underneath.

1399
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:52,599
Speaker 3: It's I could totally see this, agree with I can

1400
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 3: see the Cowboys landing you jag here. I am going

1401
01:10:56,040 --> 01:11:00,840
Speaker 3: with the team that I mistakenly Betsy against over and

1402
01:11:00,880 --> 01:11:04,679
Speaker 3: over last week, and that is the Washington football team

1403
01:11:05,040 --> 01:11:06,000
Speaker 3: at San Francisco.

1404
01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 5: And they're plus one forty five.

1405
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:13,000
Speaker 3: And I started to look back on this team and really,

1406
01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:16,200
Speaker 3: this is a pretty average team. They're about seventeenth in

1407
01:11:16,520 --> 01:11:22,800
Speaker 3: overall dvoah, they they're top five on defense. But I'm

1408
01:11:22,840 --> 01:11:25,080
Speaker 3: thinking back on it, and I'm and you really started

1409
01:11:25,080 --> 01:11:26,760
Speaker 3: to see this kind of come out in that San

1410
01:11:26,760 --> 01:11:30,360
Speaker 3: Francisco in that Pittsburgh game. But this is like the

1411
01:11:30,439 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 3: team like this is like the emotional team, Like this

1412
01:11:33,479 --> 01:11:37,160
Speaker 3: is like the team that you look at Ron Rivera

1413
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:39,080
Speaker 3: and what you know what he's gone through this year,

1414
01:11:39,120 --> 01:11:42,639
Speaker 3: you know, battling cancer, decides that they're not just gonna

1415
01:11:42,880 --> 01:11:44,599
Speaker 3: tank the season, even though it probably would have help

1416
01:11:44,640 --> 01:11:46,439
Speaker 3: him because they still don't have the long term quarterback

1417
01:11:46,439 --> 01:11:48,800
Speaker 3: on the roster. He's like, no, we're gonna go for

1418
01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:52,000
Speaker 3: the division title. And then you push comes to shove,

1419
01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:53,680
Speaker 3: and all of a sudden you have Alex Smith in there,

1420
01:11:53,680 --> 01:11:55,760
Speaker 3: who battled back from a life threatening injury. So yeah,

1421
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:59,000
Speaker 3: the two team leaders just battling back from like life

1422
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:02,600
Speaker 3: threatening circumstances is now finally have some confidence because this

1423
01:12:02,680 --> 01:12:04,280
Speaker 3: is a great second half team. They have the great

1424
01:12:04,320 --> 01:12:07,920
Speaker 3: best second half scoring margin in the league. But they've

1425
01:12:07,960 --> 01:12:10,519
Speaker 3: come out flat in a lot of different spots and

1426
01:12:10,920 --> 01:12:13,240
Speaker 3: that's kind of slowed them down. But you look at

1427
01:12:13,280 --> 01:12:16,360
Speaker 3: their first their first half offense, their top five and

1428
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:20,160
Speaker 3: success right now in first half offense under Alex Smith,

1429
01:12:20,160 --> 01:12:23,320
Speaker 3: they were thirtieth under the other two quarterbacks. So I

1430
01:12:23,320 --> 01:12:25,320
Speaker 3: think you're going to start to see some improvement there.

1431
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:30,160
Speaker 3: And Kyle Shanahan, his spots are the underdog spots like

1432
01:12:30,439 --> 01:12:32,800
Speaker 3: those in it didn't come through last week, but those

1433
01:12:32,840 --> 01:12:34,680
Speaker 3: are well, they kind of flipped to a favorite and

1434
01:12:34,680 --> 01:12:37,040
Speaker 3: you saw what happened. So you know, Kyle Shanahan is

1435
01:12:37,040 --> 01:12:40,080
Speaker 3: a coach that you generally like to bet, you know,

1436
01:12:40,160 --> 01:12:42,800
Speaker 3: on him when the Niners are underdogs, they just for

1437
01:12:42,800 --> 01:12:45,200
Speaker 3: some reason play better. Still not at home, they're still

1438
01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 3: in Arizona. But I just like the Washington football team. Initially,

1439
01:12:49,080 --> 01:12:50,280
Speaker 3: I was like, this is going to be a letdown

1440
01:12:50,280 --> 01:12:53,880
Speaker 3: spot for Washington, and then I just thought back, I'm like, no,

1441
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:55,600
Speaker 3: this is that one team that just has all that

1442
01:12:55,640 --> 01:12:57,679
Speaker 3: emotion like that. It's it's going to be that team

1443
01:12:57,720 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 3: that's just like it's the feel good story of twenty twelve.

1444
01:13:00,520 --> 01:13:02,080
Speaker 3: And I don't think you're gonna want to fuck with

1445
01:13:02,120 --> 01:13:04,040
Speaker 3: Washington down a strets, so I'm gonna try to get

1446
01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:06,040
Speaker 3: out ahead of you. I could be wrong, but uh

1447
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:08,200
Speaker 3: going with Washington plus one forty five here.

1448
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:11,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, Washington's defense put a tremendous number number one red

1449
01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:14,800
Speaker 4: zone defense too. That defensive line is great. But I mean,

1450
01:13:14,840 --> 01:13:17,439
Speaker 4: this is the quintessential Bilo so hot. We saw San

1451
01:13:17,520 --> 01:13:21,080
Speaker 4: Fran get blown out. We saw Washington pull that huge

1452
01:13:21,120 --> 01:13:25,400
Speaker 4: upset over Pittsburgh. So are they flat here? Potentially? That's

1453
01:13:25,439 --> 01:13:26,200
Speaker 4: scary one for.

1454
01:13:26,200 --> 01:13:28,559
Speaker 3: Me, Like, just watch out for that. That's what I'm saying, like,

1455
01:13:28,600 --> 01:13:31,000
Speaker 3: watch out for Washington. Just watch this team down a

1456
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:33,519
Speaker 3: stretch because I just have a feeling that they're they're

1457
01:13:33,560 --> 01:13:37,360
Speaker 3: gonna be kind of a performing expectation. Now, let's get

1458
01:13:37,400 --> 01:13:39,960
Speaker 3: into the best of the rest, which are the games

1459
01:13:40,120 --> 01:13:43,439
Speaker 3: that did not make it into any other segment. All right,

1460
01:13:43,479 --> 01:13:47,400
Speaker 3: First up, we have Denver. This line is off the

1461
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:51,639
Speaker 3: board at some books. Carolina dealing with some COVID issues.

1462
01:13:51,640 --> 01:13:54,960
Speaker 3: Looks like DJ Moore the wide receiver will not play.

1463
01:13:55,439 --> 01:13:59,040
Speaker 3: But Carolina three and a half point favorites. Last we've

1464
01:13:59,080 --> 01:14:01,479
Speaker 3: seen the I may open a little bit well er

1465
01:14:01,600 --> 01:14:04,639
Speaker 3: if you know, if it comes back out and anything

1466
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:06,400
Speaker 3: else is announced. But right now, that's what we're going

1467
01:14:06,439 --> 01:14:08,400
Speaker 3: with any thoughts on this game.

1468
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:10,200
Speaker 4: No, I mean, now we gotta we have to wait

1469
01:14:10,200 --> 01:14:12,640
Speaker 4: to see who's out. Keep your well content out on

1470
01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:15,200
Speaker 4: Action appen Action work dot com. I mean Ajbuie is

1471
01:14:15,240 --> 01:14:19,639
Speaker 4: now suspended cornerback for Denver. They already lost Bryce Callim's

1472
01:14:19,640 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 4: been one of the best corners the NFL. So they're

1473
01:14:21,240 --> 01:14:24,040
Speaker 4: starting corners and be Duke Dawson and a rookie Ojamudia.

1474
01:14:24,400 --> 01:14:26,840
Speaker 4: That's not great. Panthers off of a vibe and now

1475
01:14:26,880 --> 01:14:28,719
Speaker 4: be able to COVID issues. This game is a mess.

1476
01:14:29,040 --> 01:14:30,559
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it.

1477
01:14:30,560 --> 01:14:32,479
Speaker 3: It would seem like Denver's defense is going to take

1478
01:14:32,479 --> 01:14:35,439
Speaker 3: a hit, but still have Vic Fangio. I think it's

1479
01:14:35,439 --> 01:14:38,040
Speaker 3: probably gonna be an undergame for me, just because the

1480
01:14:38,120 --> 01:14:40,840
Speaker 3: Panthers they're you know, Denver's taking a hit at corner,

1481
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:43,880
Speaker 3: but the Panthers are you know, gonna be down a

1482
01:14:43,960 --> 01:14:46,240
Speaker 3: key wide receiver, if not more. Because Curtis Samuel also

1483
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:48,360
Speaker 3: went on the COVID list said that would be huge

1484
01:14:48,400 --> 01:14:51,880
Speaker 3: if you have to start like Brandon Zilstra and Pharaoh Cooper. Uh,

1485
01:14:52,120 --> 01:14:55,439
Speaker 3: so watch out for the under in this one. Uh

1486
01:14:55,479 --> 01:14:59,680
Speaker 3: and uh. Next up, we have green Bay going to

1487
01:15:00,160 --> 01:15:08,719
Speaker 3: Detroit tro seven and a half point. Favorites are the Packers.

1488
01:15:08,720 --> 01:15:11,240
Speaker 3: The total is fifty five and a half.

1489
01:15:11,600 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean to keep thing here to you keep

1490
01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:17,840
Speaker 4: it around. Is Kenny Galladay gonna play? I don't know. Uh.

1491
01:15:18,080 --> 01:15:20,840
Speaker 4: He's obviously really important to Detroit's offense, even though he

1492
01:15:20,880 --> 01:15:23,639
Speaker 4: wire going against Jaire Alexander. But without him, I don't

1493
01:15:23,680 --> 01:15:25,840
Speaker 4: know if Detroit has any shot. I don't know how

1494
01:15:25,840 --> 01:15:28,759
Speaker 4: Detroit gets any stops. I make this slightly under seven,

1495
01:15:29,520 --> 01:15:31,559
Speaker 4: but I don't I can't see how the Packers lose

1496
01:15:31,560 --> 01:15:35,040
Speaker 4: this game. They're a good teaser piece. If Galladey plays too,

1497
01:15:35,200 --> 01:15:37,080
Speaker 4: I would like the override. I just think Green Bay

1498
01:15:37,120 --> 01:15:38,080
Speaker 4: is gonna go up and down the field.

1499
01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:40,000
Speaker 3: It will, Yeah, that's what it would seem like. I

1500
01:15:40,040 --> 01:15:44,040
Speaker 3: have a Green Bay as seven point favorites. It is

1501
01:15:44,080 --> 01:15:46,200
Speaker 3: on the road. We've seen green Bay stumble a little

1502
01:15:46,200 --> 01:15:49,240
Speaker 3: bit and wait in a year outside of Wamba especially,

1503
01:15:49,240 --> 01:15:51,559
Speaker 3: I think they won twenty three to twenty at Detroit

1504
01:15:51,640 --> 01:15:53,599
Speaker 3: last year. I think that both games they were three

1505
01:15:53,600 --> 01:15:56,200
Speaker 3: point games. Actually, Detroit tends to play him tough. Now

1506
01:15:56,200 --> 01:15:57,439
Speaker 3: there is a new coach, so there is a little

1507
01:15:57,439 --> 01:16:01,080
Speaker 3: bit of uncertainty here. But Aaron Rodgers play extremely well.

1508
01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:04,719
Speaker 3: And I was impressed that in a spot against Philly

1509
01:16:04,760 --> 01:16:07,400
Speaker 3: last week where I thought, you know, okay, maybe maybe

1510
01:16:07,400 --> 01:16:11,439
Speaker 3: you see some slow down because pressure defenses, especially you know,

1511
01:16:11,479 --> 01:16:14,760
Speaker 3: front fronts that can get pressure, have slowed him down.

1512
01:16:15,040 --> 01:16:18,120
Speaker 5: You also have a cornerback in that Philly game who.

1513
01:16:18,040 --> 01:16:21,519
Speaker 3: Could at least in theory obviously didn't happen, but in

1514
01:16:21,560 --> 01:16:24,840
Speaker 3: theory cover DeVante couldn't get it done. And now this

1515
01:16:24,920 --> 01:16:29,519
Speaker 3: is just such a such an easier defensive matchup for Rogers.

1516
01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:32,120
Speaker 3: So yeah, I would lean to the over in this

1517
01:16:32,240 --> 01:16:34,320
Speaker 3: game if I had to make a play, just because

1518
01:16:34,760 --> 01:16:37,479
Speaker 3: you know, Detroit offense under Bevil now could be a

1519
01:16:37,479 --> 01:16:39,439
Speaker 3: little bit better. I think green Bay's defense has been

1520
01:16:39,479 --> 01:16:42,519
Speaker 3: a little bit overrated, so would lean over as the

1521
01:16:42,560 --> 01:16:44,080
Speaker 3: play here as well.

1522
01:16:44,400 --> 01:16:47,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Bevil still is like a Wisconsin guy

1523
01:16:47,000 --> 01:16:49,240
Speaker 4: that just loves to run it right and right up

1524
01:16:49,280 --> 01:16:53,040
Speaker 4: into the got way too often. But I think Swift's

1525
01:16:53,040 --> 01:16:54,800
Speaker 4: gonna be back, so that'll help because you can run

1526
01:16:54,840 --> 01:16:58,600
Speaker 4: on green Ben. It won't be Adrian Peterson. But I

1527
01:16:58,600 --> 01:17:00,519
Speaker 4: don't see Green Bay losing that. I just don't see

1528
01:17:00,520 --> 01:17:01,400
Speaker 4: how the trick can stop him.

1529
01:17:01,760 --> 01:17:03,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, no one out, No one has to

1530
01:17:03,280 --> 01:17:06,120
Speaker 3: sept Tampa so and and the Colts for like a half.

1531
01:17:06,600 --> 01:17:08,800
Speaker 3: But really Mount Mark is about to scanting stop them.

1532
01:17:08,840 --> 01:17:10,280
Speaker 2: But we move on.

1533
01:17:10,880 --> 01:17:15,799
Speaker 3: Last game is the Saints seven point favorites at Philly.

1534
01:17:15,880 --> 01:17:20,080
Speaker 3: We have two of these kind of run first quarterbacks.

1535
01:17:20,160 --> 01:17:23,519
Speaker 3: The total is forty four for this game. These Saints

1536
01:17:23,560 --> 01:17:25,639
Speaker 3: have been starting to be an under team. The Eagles

1537
01:17:25,640 --> 01:17:28,160
Speaker 3: have started to be under team ween that way, although

1538
01:17:28,200 --> 01:17:29,720
Speaker 3: the total is starting to creep down. But what are

1539
01:17:29,760 --> 01:17:32,000
Speaker 3: your thoughts on Unhurts and how he affects this.

1540
01:17:32,000 --> 01:17:34,880
Speaker 4: This number can't be much worse than Carson Wentz.

1541
01:17:35,200 --> 01:17:35,800
Speaker 2: I don't.

1542
01:17:35,800 --> 01:17:37,040
Speaker 4: I don't even have that much for down grade. I

1543
01:17:37,040 --> 01:17:39,360
Speaker 4: always have a big downgrade for rookie quarterbacks making their

1544
01:17:39,360 --> 01:17:41,599
Speaker 4: first start, But I mean, once has been as bad

1545
01:17:41,600 --> 01:17:43,960
Speaker 4: as you can possibly get. I don't. I can't project

1546
01:17:43,960 --> 01:17:46,040
Speaker 4: that he's gonna be better. I have to see more.

1547
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:48,600
Speaker 4: And he seems are just like a one read quarterback

1548
01:17:49,280 --> 01:17:53,080
Speaker 4: for now. But maybe he provides a spark. And yeah,

1549
01:17:53,120 --> 01:17:55,040
Speaker 4: I mean Wentz was just playing at such a he

1550
01:17:55,080 --> 01:17:56,680
Speaker 4: needed to. He needs to get out of there and

1551
01:17:56,880 --> 01:17:59,640
Speaker 4: start over. If he even has anything left, I don't know.

1552
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:02,160
Speaker 4: I hear here and Drew Brees might play. And I

1553
01:18:02,240 --> 01:18:05,800
Speaker 4: still have a big downgrades between Breeze and Taysom Hill,

1554
01:18:06,280 --> 01:18:07,960
Speaker 4: Hurt Snuck. We don't get any help. You can't run

1555
01:18:08,000 --> 01:18:11,080
Speaker 4: on the Saints at all. Historically great run defense, they

1556
01:18:11,080 --> 01:18:13,280
Speaker 4: have some defensive injuries to keep your eye on. The

1557
01:18:13,320 --> 01:18:15,639
Speaker 4: Saints are eight to no against spread the last eight games.

1558
01:18:15,640 --> 01:18:19,400
Speaker 4: Breeze hasn't started. I don't know the Saints. They are

1559
01:18:19,520 --> 01:18:23,280
Speaker 4: rolling and they're going to Philadelphia here, is this a

1560
01:18:23,320 --> 01:18:26,840
Speaker 4: slip up? Spot. I don't know. Possibly this is tough

1561
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:29,720
Speaker 4: for me. I have the line spot on, though. If

1562
01:18:29,760 --> 01:18:34,200
Speaker 4: Breeze plays and this line ticks up, I might go

1563
01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:37,800
Speaker 4: Philly reluctantly. But this is in the game I'm rushing

1564
01:18:37,840 --> 01:18:39,920
Speaker 4: to bet it really has a bunch of injuries to

1565
01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:42,200
Speaker 4: keep an eye on to a Corners offensive line.

1566
01:18:42,760 --> 01:18:46,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, Reports of as of this morning are that Breeze

1567
01:18:46,479 --> 01:18:49,719
Speaker 3: is targeting a week fifteen return date. Says he's progressing

1568
01:18:49,760 --> 01:18:52,120
Speaker 3: well according to the NFL Network, but he won't practice

1569
01:18:52,160 --> 01:18:55,599
Speaker 3: much this week, so probably won't see him back this week.

1570
01:18:55,680 --> 01:18:57,200
Speaker 5: I think it'll be one more at least one.

1571
01:18:57,120 --> 01:18:59,880
Speaker 3: More game of Taystem And yeah, I think i'd probably

1572
01:18:59,880 --> 01:19:02,840
Speaker 3: just lean under. But uh, it's so hard to know

1573
01:19:03,320 --> 01:19:06,160
Speaker 3: because with this with the spread, because hurts, I think

1574
01:19:06,200 --> 01:19:06,559
Speaker 3: I agree.

1575
01:19:06,600 --> 01:19:08,600
Speaker 5: I think he could be an upgrade.

1576
01:19:08,640 --> 01:19:10,760
Speaker 3: And in that case, you know, you don't want to

1577
01:19:11,200 --> 01:19:13,760
Speaker 3: just blindly fade him because Philly is already kind of

1578
01:19:13,840 --> 01:19:16,720
Speaker 3: you're buying. You know, they're at the lowest point if

1579
01:19:16,720 --> 01:19:19,880
Speaker 3: you're betting against them. Uh, and then you know Taysom

1580
01:19:19,920 --> 01:19:23,720
Speaker 3: Hill we've seed three games, two have been against the Falcons,

1581
01:19:23,800 --> 01:19:27,320
Speaker 3: one has been against Broncos without a quarterback, So it's

1582
01:19:27,360 --> 01:19:29,880
Speaker 3: another one of these weird games where he's going against

1583
01:19:29,840 --> 01:19:32,840
Speaker 3: another similar quarterback. Now, I just think it's gonna be

1584
01:19:32,880 --> 01:19:36,200
Speaker 3: another Saints kind of low scoring game. You look at

1585
01:19:36,200 --> 01:19:38,920
Speaker 3: their defense there, so the Saints are second in the

1586
01:19:38,960 --> 01:19:43,320
Speaker 3: overall defensive DVOA and they're two against the pass, two

1587
01:19:43,320 --> 01:19:47,360
Speaker 3: against the rush. So that is just I mean, and

1588
01:19:47,520 --> 01:19:49,600
Speaker 3: this was that's impressive because last week they had no

1589
01:19:50,560 --> 01:19:53,040
Speaker 3: Jack Rabbit, who played a big role in that first

1590
01:19:53,080 --> 01:19:54,640
Speaker 3: game against the wa and they had no Davin for

1591
01:19:54,880 --> 01:19:58,720
Speaker 3: and just keep on rolling. So yeah, undergame for me.

1592
01:19:59,400 --> 01:20:01,320
Speaker 3: Not sure how how we you know what happens with Hurts,

1593
01:20:01,320 --> 01:20:02,640
Speaker 3: but do agreact Now. I don't think it can be

1594
01:20:02,680 --> 01:20:04,559
Speaker 3: any worse than Carson Wentz, and I think that the

1595
01:20:04,560 --> 01:20:07,760
Speaker 3: fact that he could scramble does does help them, because

1596
01:20:07,760 --> 01:20:09,439
Speaker 3: I think Wentz was just kind of he.

1597
01:20:09,479 --> 01:20:10,559
Speaker 5: Was scrambling a little bit more.

1598
01:20:10,600 --> 01:20:13,280
Speaker 3: But the bottom line is the scheme isn't getting guys

1599
01:20:13,320 --> 01:20:17,240
Speaker 3: open consistently enough, so that rushing ability is going to

1600
01:20:17,280 --> 01:20:19,840
Speaker 3: come in handy with just you know, keeping the chains

1601
01:20:19,840 --> 01:20:22,160
Speaker 3: moving and picking up an extra first down or two.

1602
01:20:22,439 --> 01:20:24,559
Speaker 5: Now, let's get into our Survivor Picks of the week.

1603
01:20:25,800 --> 01:20:26,880
Speaker 2: One pick.

1604
01:20:28,120 --> 01:20:34,400
Speaker 1: One chance to advance survivor and we.

1605
01:20:34,720 --> 01:20:36,000
Speaker 5: Lost again Seattle.

1606
01:20:36,479 --> 01:20:40,720
Speaker 3: So that's like the what third time I think this year.

1607
01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:45,200
Speaker 3: So not not ideal, but it's getting late in the year.

1608
01:20:46,080 --> 01:20:49,240
Speaker 3: If you're alive, congratulations that you're on a heck of

1609
01:20:49,280 --> 01:20:49,639
Speaker 3: a run.

1610
01:20:50,400 --> 01:20:52,280
Speaker 5: I mean, who do we who are we looking at

1611
01:20:52,320 --> 01:20:52,880
Speaker 5: for this week?

1612
01:20:53,240 --> 01:20:55,200
Speaker 3: I haven't used the Chiefs, not that I see.

1613
01:20:55,240 --> 01:20:56,559
Speaker 4: Now I'll go Chiefs.

1614
01:20:56,720 --> 01:20:58,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I didn't use the Saints yet.

1615
01:20:58,280 --> 01:21:00,200
Speaker 3: I mean, not that it makes much of a difference now,

1616
01:21:00,320 --> 01:21:03,400
Speaker 3: but I'll go with the Saints to get the win

1617
01:21:03,439 --> 01:21:06,519
Speaker 3: against the rookie quarterback. We'll see how that goes. But yeah,

1618
01:21:06,560 --> 01:21:08,920
Speaker 3: it's been a rough year. Christo Vier picks. So that's

1619
01:21:08,920 --> 01:21:12,439
Speaker 3: going to wrap it up for the Week fourteen NFL

1620
01:21:12,479 --> 01:21:16,519
Speaker 3: Betting podcast. Again, be sure to check out Convince Me

1621
01:21:17,120 --> 01:21:20,559
Speaker 3: at seven Eastern on the Action Network HQ twitter handle.

1622
01:21:20,640 --> 01:21:24,439
Speaker 3: We'll talk some of our favorite bets and props, especially

1623
01:21:24,520 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 3: for the Thursday night Rams Patriots game, and we'll have

1624
01:21:29,400 --> 01:21:32,720
Speaker 3: an episode on the handle as well Sunday at eleven

1625
01:21:32,880 --> 01:21:36,960
Speaker 3: a m. Eastern breaking down our favorite side total and

1626
01:21:37,360 --> 01:21:41,280
Speaker 3: prop for the Sunday slate. You can follow Stucky in

1627
01:21:41,320 --> 01:21:43,240
Speaker 3: the Action Network app at Stucky too. You can follow

1628
01:21:43,240 --> 01:21:45,880
Speaker 3: me at Chris Raybon, and you can find us on

1629
01:21:45,920 --> 01:21:48,800
Speaker 3: Twitter at those same handles. Be sure to check out

1630
01:21:48,800 --> 01:21:51,160
Speaker 3: Action network dot com for all of our NFL betting

1631
01:21:51,600 --> 01:21:55,719
Speaker 3: and fantasy content, fantasywabs dot com for the DFS content

1632
01:21:56,720 --> 01:21:57,759
Speaker 3: until next week.

1633
01:21:57,960 --> 01:21:59,519
Speaker 5: Good luck, and let's get to Schwey.

1634
01:22:15,880 --> 01:22:16,920
Speaker 2: We're finished talking