WEBVTT - Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor Talks Election Outcomes

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<v Speaker 1>Jessica Taylor, she was a senior breakthrough officer for the

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<v Speaker 1>Almanac of American Politics and David Greup with a cook

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<v Speaker 1>political report. Why don't you bring her in on what

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<v Speaker 1>she's publishing about Monday? I want to know where Jessica

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<v Speaker 1>Taylor is Monday.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Jessica, let's start there. It's great to speak with you.

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<v Speaker 2>We can get Tom a copy of that Almanac.

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<v Speaker 3>We just hope. Yeah, I mean we start work on

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<v Speaker 3>it next week actually for the next edition. So I'm

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<v Speaker 3>quickly turning around doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>So, yeah, are you going to know by Monday? Who

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<v Speaker 2>controls the House? Where are we in the counting of

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<v Speaker 2>votes in those what thirty outstanding districts across this country?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's unclear if we'll know by Monday. I think

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<v Speaker 3>that we're still waiting on some of those key California districts,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, But I think there's a very there's a

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<v Speaker 3>very thinning path rather to get to eighteen for Democrats.

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<v Speaker 3>That's what's becoming clear.

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<v Speaker 2>Annie Carney of the Time's at with a piece this

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<v Speaker 2>morning about Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State. She

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<v Speaker 2>complaining to Annie just about how she felt she was

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<v Speaker 2>ignored by the mainstream Democratic Party. She had complaints about

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<v Speaker 2>where things were going. She felt she was ignored by

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<v Speaker 2>the candidate herself at a Christmas party. The grievances range

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<v Speaker 2>from kind of macro to micro. But want to use

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<v Speaker 2>that as kind of a pivot to ask you about

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<v Speaker 2>how much what we've been talking about over these last

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<v Speaker 2>few days about the Democratic Party broadly trickles down to

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<v Speaker 2>these races for House seats. Are the complaints universal about

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<v Speaker 2>the degree to which the Democratic Party has left voters

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<v Speaker 2>behind her. If we look at these races one by one,

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<v Speaker 2>be they in Washington State or California or elsewhere, are

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<v Speaker 2>there places where the kind of main messaging that the

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats have had have worked.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So just to update you, I am looking at

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<v Speaker 3>our latest projections here at cook that we are putting

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<v Speaker 3>out this morning, and right now, Republicans we have been

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<v Speaker 3>winning so far two hundred and twelve, so they're just

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<v Speaker 3>shy six seats at the two eighteen and we think

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<v Speaker 3>probably the ceiling they can get is a five seat game,

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<v Speaker 3>which would bring them to two twenty six, but that's

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<v Speaker 3>still up in the air. But to ask about the

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<v Speaker 3>individual things, I think that Democrats that managed to win.

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<v Speaker 3>We're ones that has strong individual brands. Are only Marie

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<v Speaker 3>Gules camp As. They're in Washington, but Jared Golden and

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<v Speaker 3>Maine looks like he's held on even as Trump carried

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<v Speaker 3>that congressional district. But then you know, other Democrats that

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<v Speaker 3>we didn't think were perhaps as in danger got swamped

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<v Speaker 3>by sort of the tide. I think they're in Pennsylvania,

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<v Speaker 3>which I heard you all talking about before, with Matt

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<v Speaker 3>Cartwright and Susan Wilde in Pennsylvania losing both of those seats.

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<v Speaker 3>But then you know, when I'm looking at the Senate map,

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<v Speaker 3>someone like Tamy Baldwin managed to win very narrowly Alyssa Slotkin.

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<v Speaker 3>They both I think were able to run stronger in

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<v Speaker 3>rural areas, not win those, but to do better. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's coming with knowing the areas and that

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<v Speaker 3>they had a unique brand sort of separate from the

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<v Speaker 3>Democratic Party enough where they were able to convince voters

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<v Speaker 3>to trust to vote for them even as they voted

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<v Speaker 3>for Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>In the Washington Post, I believe this morning there's a

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<v Speaker 1>fabulous article that mister Trump has power. Everyone agrees with that,

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<v Speaker 1>but maybe less power to drive the House and Senate.

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<v Speaker 1>Where do you stand on that? I mean, I'm waiting

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<v Speaker 1>for Charlie Cook to write one of his wonderful essays

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<v Speaker 1>about this. Is it a landslide, is it a power shift?

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<v Speaker 1>Or do we overplay that? Right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, at least when I'm looking at the Senate, they

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<v Speaker 3>have at least fifty three seats right now, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's probably where it's going to land. The ap

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<v Speaker 3>is called Pennsylvania, so they flipped West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana.

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<v Speaker 3>But those three were always the ones we expected were

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<v Speaker 3>the most. So again Republicans left seats on the table

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<v Speaker 3>because for the first time we've had multiple seats that

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<v Speaker 3>split their tickets in the Trump era with it, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we the races in Arizona and Nevada aren't called, but

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<v Speaker 3>it looks like those are going to vote Democratic at

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<v Speaker 3>the Senate level, but heavily Republican at the presidential level.

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<v Speaker 3>So this could have been much worse. That's my piece

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<v Speaker 3>that I have about this morning in the table, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's because Democrats were spending heavily. They managed to sort

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<v Speaker 3>of ward off some of this. You know, in Arizona

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<v Speaker 3>they had we hear candidates so it could have been worse.

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<v Speaker 3>And remember that much like you know, I think this

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<v Speaker 3>was sort of Democrats worry if they only got to

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<v Speaker 3>fifty two or something, which they've got one more. At

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<v Speaker 3>least it looks like that Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski

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<v Speaker 3>of May could wield overwhelming influences the moderates within the GOP.

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<v Speaker 3>How they go about that could could matter. But you know,

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<v Speaker 3>if Republicans have gained a few seats in the House

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<v Speaker 3>that you know that we saw what that four seat

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<v Speaker 3>majority did last time. But you know, the last time

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<v Speaker 3>Trump had a trifecta was when he was when he

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<v Speaker 3>came in in twenty seventeen, and they weren't able to

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<v Speaker 3>get everything passed. And it's just two years, probably because

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<v Speaker 3>we see typically that a president's party faces backlash in

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<v Speaker 3>that regard. So you know, I think they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>have to push through tax cuts and renewing those tax

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<v Speaker 3>cuts and anything that they want to do in this

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<v Speaker 3>two years. But again, they have a little bit bigger

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<v Speaker 3>majority in the House, but it's not huge. And you know, again,

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<v Speaker 3>if some of those Republicans in California are reelected wins

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<v Speaker 3>that they could be sitting in still very heavily democratic areas,

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<v Speaker 3>so they might not go along with the national Parky.

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<v Speaker 1>I get this out on Twitter and LinkedIn Aaron Blake,

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<v Speaker 1>writing in the Munshton Post, Trump's mandate isn't as quote

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<v Speaker 1>powerful unquote as he suggests. Here's why, David one more

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<v Speaker 1>to Jessica.

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<v Speaker 2>Jess I just want to ask you about that so

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<v Speaker 2>called blue wall and where it stands to I was

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<v Speaker 2>in Wisconsin before the election, spent some time with Senator

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<v Speaker 2>Baldwin and just kind of noted how she was very

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<v Speaker 2>confident that she was a known quantity love, how everyone

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<v Speaker 2>called her Tammy, there was no pretense, and how people

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<v Speaker 2>addressed her on the campaign trail, but she felt like

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<v Speaker 2>she was kind of wandering around a terrain that had

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<v Speaker 2>changed markedly since the last time she ran. In the

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<v Speaker 2>time before that, our colleague remained Bostic was in Michigan

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<v Speaker 2>saying Michigan no longer a blue state, saying that unequivocally,

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<v Speaker 2>how do you see that stretch of the rust belt?

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<v Speaker 2>Has it changed permanently?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I'm not sure that we can call it

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<v Speaker 3>the blue wall anymore when we look at sort of

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<v Speaker 3>Trump's victories there. I think that Democrats took the wrong

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<v Speaker 3>lessons away from twenty twenty two when they ran better

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<v Speaker 3>candidates and when there was abortion on the ballot. I

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<v Speaker 3>was talking with a Michigan Democrat yesterday and they said,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, listen, Gretchen Weimer won that by ten, but

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<v Speaker 3>she probably got at least a four point boost because

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<v Speaker 3>of just the abortion referendum and how terrible of a

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<v Speaker 3>candidate that Republican Tutor Dixon there was. So you know, again,

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<v Speaker 3>you do need to run Democrats that have those brands.

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<v Speaker 3>That's how Tammy Baldwin was able to survive. But I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think that we can. You know, I think there

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<v Speaker 3>was a lot of talk going into this like Michigan's

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<v Speaker 3>not even on the table anymore. Look at Gretchen Wimer's win,

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<v Speaker 3>look at that, you know, Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.

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<v Speaker 3>In different things like these are moments in time, and

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<v Speaker 3>when you have presidential turnout, it turns out differently than

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<v Speaker 3>some of the special elections.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Jessica, fifteen seconds. When do I get the new

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<v Speaker 1>Almanac of American Politics? How long has it taken pre order?

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<v Speaker 3>It's the target game.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Jessica, Thank you so much. Jessica Taylor with us

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<v Speaker 1>A Cook political report