Speaker 1: Jessica Taylor, she was a senior breakthrough officer for the
Speaker 1: Almanac of American Politics and David Greup with a cook
Speaker 1: political report. Why don't you bring her in on what
Speaker 1: she's publishing about Monday? I want to know where Jessica
Speaker 1: Taylor is Monday.
Speaker 2: Well, Jessica, let's start there. It's great to speak with you.
Speaker 2: We can get Tom a copy of that Almanac.
Speaker 3: We just hope. Yeah, I mean we start work on
Speaker 3: it next week actually for the next edition. So I'm
Speaker 3: quickly turning around doing that.
Speaker 2: So, yeah, are you going to know by Monday? Who
Speaker 2: controls the House? Where are we in the counting of
Speaker 2: votes in those what thirty outstanding districts across this country?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's unclear if we'll know by Monday. I think
Speaker 3: that we're still waiting on some of those key California districts,
Speaker 3: you know, But I think there's a very there's a
Speaker 3: very thinning path rather to get to eighteen for Democrats.
Speaker 3: That's what's becoming clear.
Speaker 2: Annie Carney of the Time's at with a piece this
Speaker 2: morning about Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State. She
Speaker 2: complaining to Annie just about how she felt she was
Speaker 2: ignored by the mainstream Democratic Party. She had complaints about
Speaker 2: where things were going. She felt she was ignored by
Speaker 2: the candidate herself at a Christmas party. The grievances range
Speaker 2: from kind of macro to micro. But want to use
Speaker 2: that as kind of a pivot to ask you about
Speaker 2: how much what we've been talking about over these last
Speaker 2: few days about the Democratic Party broadly trickles down to
Speaker 2: these races for House seats. Are the complaints universal about
Speaker 2: the degree to which the Democratic Party has left voters
Speaker 2: behind her. If we look at these races one by one,
Speaker 2: be they in Washington State or California or elsewhere, are
Speaker 2: there places where the kind of main messaging that the
Speaker 2: Democrats have had have worked.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So just to update you, I am looking at
Speaker 3: our latest projections here at cook that we are putting
Speaker 3: out this morning, and right now, Republicans we have been
Speaker 3: winning so far two hundred and twelve, so they're just
Speaker 3: shy six seats at the two eighteen and we think
Speaker 3: probably the ceiling they can get is a five seat game,
Speaker 3: which would bring them to two twenty six, but that's
Speaker 3: still up in the air. But to ask about the
Speaker 3: individual things, I think that Democrats that managed to win.
Speaker 3: We're ones that has strong individual brands. Are only Marie
Speaker 3: Gules camp As. They're in Washington, but Jared Golden and
Speaker 3: Maine looks like he's held on even as Trump carried
Speaker 3: that congressional district. But then you know, other Democrats that
Speaker 3: we didn't think were perhaps as in danger got swamped
Speaker 3: by sort of the tide. I think they're in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 3: which I heard you all talking about before, with Matt
Speaker 3: Cartwright and Susan Wilde in Pennsylvania losing both of those seats.
Speaker 3: But then you know, when I'm looking at the Senate map,
Speaker 3: someone like Tamy Baldwin managed to win very narrowly Alyssa Slotkin.
Speaker 3: They both I think were able to run stronger in
Speaker 3: rural areas, not win those, but to do better. And
Speaker 3: I think that's coming with knowing the areas and that
Speaker 3: they had a unique brand sort of separate from the
Speaker 3: Democratic Party enough where they were able to convince voters
Speaker 3: to trust to vote for them even as they voted
Speaker 3: for Trump.
Speaker 1: In the Washington Post, I believe this morning there's a
Speaker 1: fabulous article that mister Trump has power. Everyone agrees with that,
Speaker 1: but maybe less power to drive the House and Senate.
Speaker 1: Where do you stand on that? I mean, I'm waiting
Speaker 1: for Charlie Cook to write one of his wonderful essays
Speaker 1: about this. Is it a landslide, is it a power shift?
Speaker 1: Or do we overplay that? Right now?
Speaker 3: Well, at least when I'm looking at the Senate, they
Speaker 3: have at least fifty three seats right now, and I
Speaker 3: think that's probably where it's going to land. The ap
Speaker 3: is called Pennsylvania, so they flipped West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana.
Speaker 3: But those three were always the ones we expected were
Speaker 3: the most. So again Republicans left seats on the table
Speaker 3: because for the first time we've had multiple seats that
Speaker 3: split their tickets in the Trump era with it, you know,
Speaker 3: we the races in Arizona and Nevada aren't called, but
Speaker 3: it looks like those are going to vote Democratic at
Speaker 3: the Senate level, but heavily Republican at the presidential level.
Speaker 3: So this could have been much worse. That's my piece
Speaker 3: that I have about this morning in the table, and
Speaker 3: that's because Democrats were spending heavily. They managed to sort
Speaker 3: of ward off some of this. You know, in Arizona
Speaker 3: they had we hear candidates so it could have been worse.
Speaker 3: And remember that much like you know, I think this
Speaker 3: was sort of Democrats worry if they only got to
Speaker 3: fifty two or something, which they've got one more. At
Speaker 3: least it looks like that Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski
Speaker 3: of May could wield overwhelming influences the moderates within the GOP.
Speaker 3: How they go about that could could matter. But you know,
Speaker 3: if Republicans have gained a few seats in the House
Speaker 3: that you know that we saw what that four seat
Speaker 3: majority did last time. But you know, the last time
Speaker 3: Trump had a trifecta was when he was when he
Speaker 3: came in in twenty seventeen, and they weren't able to
Speaker 3: get everything passed. And it's just two years, probably because
Speaker 3: we see typically that a president's party faces backlash in
Speaker 3: that regard. So you know, I think they're going to
Speaker 3: have to push through tax cuts and renewing those tax
Speaker 3: cuts and anything that they want to do in this
Speaker 3: two years. But again, they have a little bit bigger
Speaker 3: majority in the House, but it's not huge. And you know, again,
Speaker 3: if some of those Republicans in California are reelected wins
Speaker 3: that they could be sitting in still very heavily democratic areas,
Speaker 3: so they might not go along with the national Parky.
Speaker 1: I get this out on Twitter and LinkedIn Aaron Blake,
Speaker 1: writing in the Munshton Post, Trump's mandate isn't as quote
Speaker 1: powerful unquote as he suggests. Here's why, David one more
Speaker 1: to Jessica.
Speaker 2: Jess I just want to ask you about that so
Speaker 2: called blue wall and where it stands to I was
Speaker 2: in Wisconsin before the election, spent some time with Senator
Speaker 2: Baldwin and just kind of noted how she was very
Speaker 2: confident that she was a known quantity love, how everyone
Speaker 2: called her Tammy, there was no pretense, and how people
Speaker 2: addressed her on the campaign trail, but she felt like
Speaker 2: she was kind of wandering around a terrain that had
Speaker 2: changed markedly since the last time she ran. In the
Speaker 2: time before that, our colleague remained Bostic was in Michigan
Speaker 2: saying Michigan no longer a blue state, saying that unequivocally,
Speaker 2: how do you see that stretch of the rust belt?
Speaker 2: Has it changed permanently?
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not sure that we can call it
Speaker 3: the blue wall anymore when we look at sort of
Speaker 3: Trump's victories there. I think that Democrats took the wrong
Speaker 3: lessons away from twenty twenty two when they ran better
Speaker 3: candidates and when there was abortion on the ballot. I
Speaker 3: was talking with a Michigan Democrat yesterday and they said,
Speaker 3: you know, listen, Gretchen Weimer won that by ten, but
Speaker 3: she probably got at least a four point boost because
Speaker 3: of just the abortion referendum and how terrible of a
Speaker 3: candidate that Republican Tutor Dixon there was. So you know, again,
Speaker 3: you do need to run Democrats that have those brands.
Speaker 3: That's how Tammy Baldwin was able to survive. But I
Speaker 3: don't think that we can. You know, I think there
Speaker 3: was a lot of talk going into this like Michigan's
Speaker 3: not even on the table anymore. Look at Gretchen Wimer's win,
Speaker 3: look at that, you know, Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.
Speaker 3: In different things like these are moments in time, and
Speaker 3: when you have presidential turnout, it turns out differently than
Speaker 3: some of the special elections.
Speaker 1: Right, Jessica, fifteen seconds. When do I get the new
Speaker 1: Almanac of American Politics? How long has it taken pre order?
Speaker 3: It's the target game.
Speaker 1: Okay, Jessica, Thank you so much. Jessica Taylor with us
Speaker 1: A Cook political report