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Speaker 1: Jessica Taylor, she was a senior breakthrough officer for the

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Speaker 1: Almanac of American Politics and David Greup with a cook

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Speaker 1: political report. Why don't you bring her in on what

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Speaker 1: she's publishing about Monday? I want to know where Jessica

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Speaker 1: Taylor is Monday.

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Speaker 2: Well, Jessica, let's start there. It's great to speak with you.

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Speaker 2: We can get Tom a copy of that Almanac.

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Speaker 3: We just hope. Yeah, I mean we start work on

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Speaker 3: it next week actually for the next edition. So I'm

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Speaker 3: quickly turning around doing that.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, are you going to know by Monday? Who

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Speaker 2: controls the House? Where are we in the counting of

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Speaker 2: votes in those what thirty outstanding districts across this country?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's unclear if we'll know by Monday. I think

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Speaker 3: that we're still waiting on some of those key California districts,

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Speaker 3: you know, But I think there's a very there's a

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Speaker 3: very thinning path rather to get to eighteen for Democrats.

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Speaker 3: That's what's becoming clear.

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Speaker 2: Annie Carney of the Time's at with a piece this

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Speaker 2: morning about Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State. She

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Speaker 2: complaining to Annie just about how she felt she was

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Speaker 2: ignored by the mainstream Democratic Party. She had complaints about

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Speaker 2: where things were going. She felt she was ignored by

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Speaker 2: the candidate herself at a Christmas party. The grievances range

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Speaker 2: from kind of macro to micro. But want to use

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Speaker 2: that as kind of a pivot to ask you about

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Speaker 2: how much what we've been talking about over these last

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Speaker 2: few days about the Democratic Party broadly trickles down to

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Speaker 2: these races for House seats. Are the complaints universal about

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Speaker 2: the degree to which the Democratic Party has left voters

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Speaker 2: behind her. If we look at these races one by one,

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Speaker 2: be they in Washington State or California or elsewhere, are

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Speaker 2: there places where the kind of main messaging that the

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Speaker 2: Democrats have had have worked.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So just to update you, I am looking at

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Speaker 3: our latest projections here at cook that we are putting

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Speaker 3: out this morning, and right now, Republicans we have been

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Speaker 3: winning so far two hundred and twelve, so they're just

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Speaker 3: shy six seats at the two eighteen and we think

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Speaker 3: probably the ceiling they can get is a five seat game,

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Speaker 3: which would bring them to two twenty six, but that's

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Speaker 3: still up in the air. But to ask about the

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Speaker 3: individual things, I think that Democrats that managed to win.

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Speaker 3: We're ones that has strong individual brands. Are only Marie

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Speaker 3: Gules camp As. They're in Washington, but Jared Golden and

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Speaker 3: Maine looks like he's held on even as Trump carried

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Speaker 3: that congressional district. But then you know, other Democrats that

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Speaker 3: we didn't think were perhaps as in danger got swamped

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Speaker 3: by sort of the tide. I think they're in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 3: which I heard you all talking about before, with Matt

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Speaker 3: Cartwright and Susan Wilde in Pennsylvania losing both of those seats.

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Speaker 3: But then you know, when I'm looking at the Senate map,

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Speaker 3: someone like Tamy Baldwin managed to win very narrowly Alyssa Slotkin.

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Speaker 3: They both I think were able to run stronger in

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Speaker 3: rural areas, not win those, but to do better. And

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Speaker 3: I think that's coming with knowing the areas and that

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Speaker 3: they had a unique brand sort of separate from the

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Speaker 3: Democratic Party enough where they were able to convince voters

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Speaker 3: to trust to vote for them even as they voted

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Speaker 3: for Trump.

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Speaker 1: In the Washington Post, I believe this morning there's a

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Speaker 1: fabulous article that mister Trump has power. Everyone agrees with that,

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Speaker 1: but maybe less power to drive the House and Senate.

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Speaker 1: Where do you stand on that? I mean, I'm waiting

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Speaker 1: for Charlie Cook to write one of his wonderful essays

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Speaker 1: about this. Is it a landslide, is it a power shift?

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Speaker 1: Or do we overplay that? Right now?

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Speaker 3: Well, at least when I'm looking at the Senate, they

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Speaker 3: have at least fifty three seats right now, and I

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Speaker 3: think that's probably where it's going to land. The ap

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Speaker 3: is called Pennsylvania, so they flipped West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana.

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Speaker 3: But those three were always the ones we expected were

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Speaker 3: the most. So again Republicans left seats on the table

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Speaker 3: because for the first time we've had multiple seats that

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Speaker 3: split their tickets in the Trump era with it, you know,

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Speaker 3: we the races in Arizona and Nevada aren't called, but

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Speaker 3: it looks like those are going to vote Democratic at

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Speaker 3: the Senate level, but heavily Republican at the presidential level.

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Speaker 3: So this could have been much worse. That's my piece

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Speaker 3: that I have about this morning in the table, and

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Speaker 3: that's because Democrats were spending heavily. They managed to sort

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Speaker 3: of ward off some of this. You know, in Arizona

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Speaker 3: they had we hear candidates so it could have been worse.

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Speaker 3: And remember that much like you know, I think this

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Speaker 3: was sort of Democrats worry if they only got to

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Speaker 3: fifty two or something, which they've got one more. At

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Speaker 3: least it looks like that Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski

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Speaker 3: of May could wield overwhelming influences the moderates within the GOP.

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Speaker 3: How they go about that could could matter. But you know,

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Speaker 3: if Republicans have gained a few seats in the House

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Speaker 3: that you know that we saw what that four seat

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Speaker 3: majority did last time. But you know, the last time

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Speaker 3: Trump had a trifecta was when he was when he

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Speaker 3: came in in twenty seventeen, and they weren't able to

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Speaker 3: get everything passed. And it's just two years, probably because

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Speaker 3: we see typically that a president's party faces backlash in

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Speaker 3: that regard. So you know, I think they're going to

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Speaker 3: have to push through tax cuts and renewing those tax

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Speaker 3: cuts and anything that they want to do in this

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Speaker 3: two years. But again, they have a little bit bigger

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Speaker 3: majority in the House, but it's not huge. And you know, again,

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Speaker 3: if some of those Republicans in California are reelected wins

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Speaker 3: that they could be sitting in still very heavily democratic areas,

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Speaker 3: so they might not go along with the national Parky.

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Speaker 1: I get this out on Twitter and LinkedIn Aaron Blake,

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Speaker 1: writing in the Munshton Post, Trump's mandate isn't as quote

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Speaker 1: powerful unquote as he suggests. Here's why, David one more

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Speaker 1: to Jessica.

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Speaker 2: Jess I just want to ask you about that so

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Speaker 2: called blue wall and where it stands to I was

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Speaker 2: in Wisconsin before the election, spent some time with Senator

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Speaker 2: Baldwin and just kind of noted how she was very

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Speaker 2: confident that she was a known quantity love, how everyone

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Speaker 2: called her Tammy, there was no pretense, and how people

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Speaker 2: addressed her on the campaign trail, but she felt like

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Speaker 2: she was kind of wandering around a terrain that had

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Speaker 2: changed markedly since the last time she ran. In the

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Speaker 2: time before that, our colleague remained Bostic was in Michigan

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Speaker 2: saying Michigan no longer a blue state, saying that unequivocally,

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Speaker 2: how do you see that stretch of the rust belt?

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Speaker 2: Has it changed permanently?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not sure that we can call it

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Speaker 3: the blue wall anymore when we look at sort of

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Speaker 3: Trump's victories there. I think that Democrats took the wrong

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Speaker 3: lessons away from twenty twenty two when they ran better

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Speaker 3: candidates and when there was abortion on the ballot. I

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Speaker 3: was talking with a Michigan Democrat yesterday and they said,

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Speaker 3: you know, listen, Gretchen Weimer won that by ten, but

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Speaker 3: she probably got at least a four point boost because

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Speaker 3: of just the abortion referendum and how terrible of a

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Speaker 3: candidate that Republican Tutor Dixon there was. So you know, again,

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Speaker 3: you do need to run Democrats that have those brands.

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Speaker 3: That's how Tammy Baldwin was able to survive. But I

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Speaker 3: don't think that we can. You know, I think there

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Speaker 3: was a lot of talk going into this like Michigan's

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Speaker 3: not even on the table anymore. Look at Gretchen Wimer's win,

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Speaker 3: look at that, you know, Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.

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Speaker 3: In different things like these are moments in time, and

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Speaker 3: when you have presidential turnout, it turns out differently than

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Speaker 3: some of the special elections.

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Speaker 1: Right, Jessica, fifteen seconds. When do I get the new

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Speaker 1: Almanac of American Politics? How long has it taken pre order?

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Speaker 3: It's the target game.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Jessica, Thank you so much. Jessica Taylor with us

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Speaker 1: A Cook political report