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Speaker 1: And welcome in Lake Kick is Live.

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Speaker 2: It is Tuesday night, September, seventh year of Old Over

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, jam packed have coming off about nineteen

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Speaker 2: consecutive days of college football. It feels like we got

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Speaker 2: a big Week two coming up. We're gonna be on

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Speaker 2: the road. We're gonna talk.

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Speaker 1: About that in just a second.

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Speaker 2: But it is Tuesday night. As you know, Tuesday night

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Speaker 2: is a big night around here. Not only do we

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Speaker 2: in all likelihood add some best bets on the Raman

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Speaker 2: Noudle Express, which we will be doing. I've got two

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Speaker 2: added best bets, have not even tweeted them out yet.

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Speaker 2: They will debut. They will be unveiled on this very

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Speaker 2: live broadcast. We've got full Week two predictions. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: hit the Oregon Ohio State game, of course, the Iowa

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Speaker 2: Iowa State game. We're gonna hit Texas Arkansas. I've got

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Speaker 2: some thoughts on Florida State and Miami. They didn't play

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Speaker 2: each other this week, nor do they next week, but

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Speaker 2: they lost.

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Speaker 1: In Week one. And a lot of.

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Speaker 2: People have lied to you and told you you are

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Speaker 2: what your record says you are. Of course, we have

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Speaker 2: told you many times. That is one of the biggest

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Speaker 2: lies in college football. I'll tell you what I mean

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Speaker 2: about that in just a few minutes. All that, plus,

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Speaker 2: we have a brand new edition of the JP Poll,

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Speaker 2: which is not our ranking system.

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Speaker 1: It's not as if we.

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Speaker 2: Are filling out our own ballot for the AP and

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Speaker 2: saying this is where teams should be ranked. No, friends,

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Speaker 2: It's as if we're running our own sports book over

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Speaker 2: here at pet State, which is probably illegal, but we're

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Speaker 2: going to do it anyway.

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Speaker 1: This is where we would power rate teams. I e.

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Speaker 2: North Carolina's not fallen below Virginia Tech this week, even

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Speaker 2: though they just lost to Virginia Tech. I say all

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Speaker 2: that to say basically take it in the proper context.

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Speaker 2: So we are four days from the Late Kick Renaissance Tour,

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Speaker 2: rolling into Aims. I'm slowing down because I really want

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Speaker 2: to emphasize I'm looking forward to it. We're going to

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Speaker 2: talk about the game and now we're going to break

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Speaker 2: it down. But you know, I was thinking about this

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Speaker 2: and it was pointed out to me. The College Game

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Speaker 2: Day is going to be there, and technically they announced

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Speaker 2: they were going before us.

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Speaker 1: Eh, who cares who came first.

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Speaker 2: The point is we're all going to be there, and

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Speaker 2: you know, someone made a really good point on Twitter today.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't it just be a shame?

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Speaker 2: I mean, wouldn't it be a crying shame if you

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Speaker 2: turned on College Game Day on Saturday and they were

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Speaker 2: all kind of late kick posters and Pate State Freights

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Speaker 2: posters and signage in the background.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be a shame?

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Speaker 2: For instance, if I tweeted out the most high resolution

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Speaker 2: version of those logos for you to take and do

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Speaker 2: with whatever you want later tonight after the show, wouldn't

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Speaker 2: that be a shame?

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to have that said.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's move into the show at late Kick, Josh,

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Speaker 2: make sure you're following on Twitter and Instagram before we

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Speaker 2: do game breakdowns tonight, and we got three big ones

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Speaker 2: coming up. I just wanted to spend a couple of

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Speaker 2: minutes on something that's been kind of kind of bubbling

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Speaker 2: for a little while now. So, Florida State and Miami

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Speaker 2: both played a game last week. Miami lost convincingly to Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Florida State had one of the most inspiring performances in

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Speaker 2: Week one.

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Speaker 1: They lost narrowly, but they lost. They both lost.

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Speaker 2: FSU lost a notre Dame, And there's a big lie

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Speaker 2: out there that I want to address right now. But

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Speaker 2: first let me pull it up right quick so I

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Speaker 2: can have the most up to date fresh day possible

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Speaker 2: earlier today, as I am prone to do if I

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Speaker 2: know I'm going to talk about something on the show

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Speaker 2: that night, I like to.

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Speaker 1: Get your feedback on it. We got a big enough.

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Speaker 2: Audience now to where we get a pretty good sample

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Speaker 2: size of voter. So, for instance, I put out a

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Speaker 2: Twitter poll earlier today.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at it right now.

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Speaker 2: Forecast the next three years is what I asked you

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Speaker 2: to do. Which program do you think will be in

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Speaker 2: a stronger position entering the twenty twenty four college football season,

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Speaker 2: Florida State or Miami. Now you may or may not

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Speaker 2: know the results, so go ahead and think for yourself

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Speaker 2: right now. If you're watching live, if you're watching the

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Speaker 2: replay or listening on the podcast tomorrow, which program entering

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four when the memory of week one is

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Speaker 2: long since faded away in twenty twenty one, Which of

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Speaker 2: these programs will be in a better position right now

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Speaker 2: as you make your own mind up sixty nine percent

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Speaker 2: or on Florida State, and we've got about thirty one

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Speaker 2: percent on Miami.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree with that. Let's dive in, let's talk.

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Speaker 2: There is recency bias here, clearly, as Miami fans were

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Speaker 2: more than willing to point out, there is recentcy bias

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Speaker 2: with this. Sure the lasting image in your mind is

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Speaker 2: of Mackenzie Milton and Florida State nearly pulling the upset off. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Miami got battered around pretty good by Alabama. Yes, I mean,

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Speaker 2: if the roles were reversed, Florida State would have been

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Speaker 2: housed by Alabama. I don't know what Miami would have

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Speaker 2: done with Notre Dame, but I can tell you yes.

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Speaker 2: So this number with Florida State probably a little inflated,

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Speaker 2: but I think it.

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Speaker 1: Is still stands to reason.

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Speaker 2: There are probably more people who believe in the long

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Speaker 2: term future of Florida State right now than Miami. So

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Speaker 2: there's good news for Miami. But I'm going to detail

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Speaker 2: all this in sort of an order here. But the

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Speaker 2: first thing I wanted to dive into and talk about

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Speaker 2: is one of the biggest lies in college football that

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Speaker 2: is told all the time is you are what your

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Speaker 2: record says you are.

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Speaker 1: It's garbage. It's total garbage. It's a falsity.

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Speaker 2: Both these teams are zero and one right now, do

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Speaker 2: they feel the same to you? And what was accomplished

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Speaker 2: this weekend? Each of them lost. What was accomplished this weekend.

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Speaker 2: If you understand college football, and especially if you understand

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Speaker 2: football in the state of Florida, you know what the

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Speaker 2: subplot was was. It wasn't about whether Miami can take

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Speaker 2: down Alabama. We didn't think it was going to be

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Speaker 2: about whether FSU can take down Notre Dame.

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Speaker 1: They nearly did it.

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Speaker 2: It's about recruiting people who know the sport on a

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Speaker 2: more intimate, granular level. They knew that the biggest competition

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Speaker 2: Miami has recruit in South Florida is Alabama, which again

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Speaker 2: thirty years ago it sound ASA nine fifteen years ago

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Speaker 2: to sound ASEN nine.

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Speaker 1: But that's the way it is now.

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Speaker 2: Miami didn't need to beat Alabama, but they absolutely needed

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Speaker 2: to look more convincing and more competitive than they were.

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Speaker 1: Well, they weren't, and so that's something they got erect

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Speaker 1: to five.

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Speaker 2: Okay, no one believes Miami has arrived yet, but they

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Speaker 2: needed a better performance flat out.

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Speaker 1: Than they had against Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Conversely, Mike Norvel and his staff circled this game, standalone

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Speaker 2: Sunday night game against Notre Dame, and they circled it,

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Speaker 2: and they weren't apologetic about it.

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Speaker 1: They knew they were going to be an underdog. They

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Speaker 1: knew it was an uphill climb, but.

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Speaker 2: They packed that place as full of recruits as they

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Speaker 2: could possibly pack it. And then they got to showcase

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Speaker 2: Dote Campbell Stadium in as rare form as it's been

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Speaker 2: in several years. I remember being there a few years

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Speaker 2: back when I think it was Deshaun Watson and Clemson

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Speaker 2: came in there and narrowly beat them, and it was

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Speaker 2: pretty lit that night. Hasn't been like that very often,

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Speaker 2: and so they got a perfect storm. They got a

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Speaker 2: highly ranked, nationally recognized brand coming in there, They got

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Speaker 2: the stage all to themselves on Sunday night, and then

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Speaker 2: they almost come back and win the thing, and they

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Speaker 2: do it in sort of a Disney like fashion to

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Speaker 2: where the whole country kind of galvanizes. If you're not

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Speaker 2: a hardcore Notre Dame fan and you were just neutral

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Speaker 2: and watching, you're sitting there pulling for FSU. We had

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Speaker 2: money on Notre Dame and I even caught myself secretly

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Speaker 2: rooting for FSU, which is just ridiculous. But anyway, what

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Speaker 2: happened was they lost the game, but they won in

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Speaker 2: so many other ways.

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Speaker 1: Florida State had a house full of recruits.

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Speaker 2: What they wanted to sell them on is they wanted

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Speaker 2: to sell them on the unique environment at Florida State.

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Speaker 2: They wanted to sell them on the concept that now

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Speaker 2: and in the future, you can come here and you

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Speaker 2: can compete with the big boys and you can win.

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Speaker 2: And this is this is an environment that's very unique

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Speaker 2: under college football. And they check all those boxes got checked.

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Speaker 2: And so yeah, you can take tell me all you

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Speaker 2: want to. You are what your record says you are.

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Speaker 2: Both these teams are zero to one. Florida State got

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Speaker 2: a huge win, intangible in nature right now. They got

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Speaker 2: a huge win this weekend that Miami did not get.

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Speaker 2: And so when you look forward now knowing the name

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Speaker 2: of the game is recruiting, when you look forward, that

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Speaker 2: stuff matters. This weekend for Florida State is gonna matter

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Speaker 2: years down the road when you look at their talent

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Speaker 2: roster in twenty twenty four, the remnants and the after

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Speaker 2: effects of that Sunday night game will be felt.

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Speaker 1: We could have said the same thing.

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Speaker 2: For all we know about Miami in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: they weren't able to put forth I wanna call it

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Speaker 2: a competitive enough product to really matter against Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Now here's the good news.

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Speaker 2: As was pointed out several times in the comment section

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Speaker 2: under this tweet, these are teams who play each other

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Speaker 2: every year. So the good news for Miami is November

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Speaker 2: thirteenth is coming and Miami will be able to erase

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Speaker 2: all this, especially when it comes to end State. You know,

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Speaker 2: you can look at what Florida State did against the

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Speaker 2: Notre Dame. You can look at what we did against Alabama.

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Speaker 2: How about you look at what we did against them.

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Speaker 2: And if Miami beats in thirty to thirteen, then all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, a lot of this gets erased, and

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Speaker 2: a lot of this at least has the volume knob

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Speaker 2: turned down on it. But until that point, I think

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Speaker 2: it very much matters what just happened this last weekend.

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Speaker 1: You're looking right now at Miami schedule.

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Speaker 2: They've got app State this Weekend's why I'm not looking

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Speaker 2: past app State cause the line of single digits on

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Speaker 2: that game, and then they got Michigan State. They got

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Speaker 2: a few weeks before they dive back into conference play.

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Speaker 2: But for the twenty twenty one acc race purposes, we're

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Speaker 2: looking at that date at North Carolina on October sixteenth.

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Speaker 1: But also you look down the.

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Speaker 2: Road a little ways at what is in November thirteenth.

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Speaker 2: That's when they played Florida State. So a lot of

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Speaker 2: this is in the remains to be seen category. That

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Speaker 2: is the nature of a forward thinking poll. No one

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Speaker 2: knows how.

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Speaker 1: It's going to turn out.

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Speaker 2: But to discount the value of Sunday Night's narrow loss

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Speaker 2: and to just label it a loss that's equal to

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Speaker 2: all other losses is ignorant.

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Speaker 1: You don't get college football. That's the way you. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's move on. We got a loaded show tonight. Huh.

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Speaker 1: Let me tell you what happened yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Just an advertisers or a marketers or a host's stream.

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Speaker 2: I log in to Twitter and I see two of

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Speaker 2: you have taken screenshots of yourself on Academy dot Com

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Speaker 2: and you're purchasing products and you're flat out saying I

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Speaker 2: am buying stuff from Academy dot Com because they are

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Speaker 2: sponsoring late Kick. Now, I didn't tell you to do that.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't from one of my burner accounts. It wasn't

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Speaker 2: direct to Colin. Me and Colin don't buy new clothes

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Speaker 2: very often. Full disclosure in case you hadn't noticed around here.

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Speaker 2: And so you guys did that on your own. Well

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Speaker 2: you're gonna be shocked by this. But the folks at

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Speaker 2: Academy really love that. And so let's just let's continue

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Speaker 2: to do that. And for those of you who are unfamiliar,

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Speaker 2: they are our partner. Now it's an exclusive partner. We

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Speaker 2: don't have forty seven sponsors on this show. We got

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Speaker 2: the college Football Playoff mug here or canteen. That's really

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Speaker 2: really out of plays considering my thoughts on the playoff, Colin,

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Speaker 2: you need to get a new We get some new

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Speaker 2: swag for the day, the stars over there, which I

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Speaker 2: stole from Pat Tholey's desk.

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Speaker 1: A long time ago. And then we've got the College Football.

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Speaker 2: Playoff canteen and which was a free media gift at

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Speaker 2: one of the national championship games.

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Speaker 1: That and the book bag I carry around every day.

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Speaker 2: Look, if you want new stuff, which I'm talking about

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Speaker 2: right now, Academy Sports and Outdoors is your spot. Can

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Speaker 2: you imagine the scene this Saturday in Ames, Iowa. Can

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Speaker 2: you imagine the scene this Saturday in Fayetteville, Arkansas, when

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Speaker 2: Texas comes to town. Imagine the tailgate scene. And if

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Speaker 2: you've been on campuses before for these big games, you

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Speaker 2: know what I'm talking about. You see the canopies, you

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Speaker 2: smell it. The grills are everywhere, the foods everywhere, the

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Speaker 2: merchandise is everywhere. Ninety five percent of what I'm talking

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Speaker 2: about right now is available at Academy Sports and Outdoors.

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Speaker 2: And not only are they the outdoor official supplier of

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Speaker 2: the Big twelve in the SEC, they're the official supplier

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Speaker 2: of late Kick.

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Speaker 1: And that's really all you need to know.

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Speaker 2: So if you can't get to one in person, Academy

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Speaker 2: dot Com is your hookup.

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Speaker 1: Check them out.

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Speaker 2: They will get you set no matter where you're headed

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Speaker 2: for a game day Saturday. All right, let's break some

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Speaker 2: games down. I didn't even mention Columbus Ohio. That's a

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Speaker 2: big one too. Oh Man, this start time, all right,

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Speaker 2: let's just talk about it. Oregon at Ohio State Buckeye

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Speaker 2: is favored by fourteen this morning, fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It is a noon Eastern time kickoff on Fox. And

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Speaker 2: for those of you unfamiliar. Oregon does not reside on

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Speaker 2: the Eastern time zone. They reside in the Pacific time zone.

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Speaker 2: It's a nine am kickoff forum. Quae quack, Welcome to

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Speaker 2: Big Fox Saturday. I love the early window, but I

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Speaker 2: grew up in Eastern time zone and I'm in Central now,

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Speaker 2: so it's not.

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Speaker 1: A big deal for me. But it is.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you're living out there in Sacramento or

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Speaker 2: you're living in Pocatello, Idaho. Hello Pocatello first mentioned on

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Speaker 2: the show, this is ridiculous. You're eating bacon and eggs

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Speaker 2: and you're watching actual games being played. You're not talking

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Speaker 2: about it at a tailgate, and it's still several hours away.

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Speaker 2: So man as far as the game goes, because we

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Speaker 2: can't change the kickoff time. These are two of the

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Speaker 2: premier brands in the sport. This is one of the

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Speaker 2: most beautiful AUTI Conference matchups of the year. But there

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Speaker 2: are two of the most most premiere recruiting brands in

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Speaker 2: the game too. And if you've been following recruiting, Ohio

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Speaker 2: State's always there. Mario Christbaul and his staff have been

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Speaker 2: killing it. They're just out working folks and they're going

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Speaker 2: into several states. It's not just a one or two

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Speaker 2: state effort. They don't just hawk all of southern California.

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Speaker 2: They go all over the place. This would so help them.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of that situation that Miami found themselves in,

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Speaker 2: only this game should be more competitive, But it's one

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Speaker 2: of those if you win, that's wonderful and all is well,

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Speaker 2: all is great with the world there. But even if

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Speaker 2: you're competitive, that's enough to sell in recruiting. So you've

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Speaker 2: got an opportunity two ways here Ohio State. It's the

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Speaker 2: opportunity that they really didn't fully stamp last week, and

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Speaker 2: that is the opportunity to announce themselves as a foreshore

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Speaker 2: bona fide national championship contender. Because if you watched them

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Speaker 2: last week and I told you they're playing Alabama Saturday,

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Speaker 2: you'd pick Bama by two or three touchdowns. Now, that

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be the way probably that it plays out in

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Speaker 2: the point spread, but that's what you'd think. So there's

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Speaker 2: still a long way to go and a long way

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Speaker 2: to grow for Ohio State. But for Oregon, this is

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Speaker 2: a chance to measure yourself against one of the best

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Speaker 2: rosters in America. Oregon is not a typical PAC twelve team,

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Speaker 2: independent of what last week's result led you to think.

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Speaker 2: You know, they are not a typical Pack twelve team.

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Speaker 1: So anyone that thinks.

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Speaker 2: This is some blowout from jump and you know a

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Speaker 2: PAC twelve team is not going to compete with Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: Now most of them wouldn't.

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Speaker 2: Oregon would fit in very well in several other major conferences,

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Speaker 2: and they'd be a contender. That's not a prediction on

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Speaker 2: the game. I'm about to make that, but just be

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Speaker 2: heads up. So they both played fairly good teams in

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Speaker 2: Week one. Minnesota was a good team. For Usno State

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Speaker 2: it's a lot better team. I think that most people realize.

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Speaker 2: And there was mild freak out about both offenses.

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Speaker 1: You know CJ. Stroud overthrow in receivers early.

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Speaker 2: I'm getting text messages at halftime of Week one, is

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Speaker 2: it time to pull the plug? Well, Ryan Day did

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Speaker 2: not text me that, and he did not pull the plug.

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Speaker 2: And they're going to be okay, believe it or not.

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Speaker 1: CJ. Stroud going to be okay.

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Speaker 2: And he didn't have to do nearly as much as

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Speaker 2: most other quarterbacks because he's got fighter jets all around him.

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Speaker 2: You just make good decisions, he'll be okay. But with Oregon,

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Speaker 2: you know there were questions about them too. I think

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Speaker 2: it had a lot more to do with the offensive

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Speaker 2: game plan going in. But then an Oregon Duck fan

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Speaker 2: would counter and say, nah, Na, we have failed to

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Speaker 2: live up to the expectation level I've had for our

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Speaker 2: offense for several situations now, several games on a Mario christobaal.

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Speaker 1: I just want us to use our weapons more.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Well, in any event, for the folks who were

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Speaker 2: just telling me, oh, we weren't good enough in week one,

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Speaker 2: that doesn't really tell me much. You gotta zoom in

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Speaker 2: and you gotta give me specifics about week one. So

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Speaker 2: dive into where this game, this Oregon Ohio State game,

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Speaker 2: is gonna be won or lost.

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Speaker 1: First thing, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Looking at Oregon's defensive back play. When you talked about

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Speaker 2: this game in the summer, was looked at as a

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Speaker 2: glaring vulnerability.

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Speaker 1: I don't view it that way.

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Speaker 2: In fact, I think Oregon's defensive backs, corners and safeties specifically,

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Speaker 2: they're getting a couple of them back this week. I

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Speaker 2: think they'll be able to relatively speaking, match up with

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Speaker 2: Ohio State's receiver corps almost as well as any they're

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Speaker 2: gonna play in the regular season or the Big Ten

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Speaker 2: championship game if they make it there. I'm not telling

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Speaker 2: you they're going to go toe to toe and not

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Speaker 2: give up anything. I'm telling you, athletically and speed wise,

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Speaker 2: those corners and safeties are not bad for Oregon. Where

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Speaker 2: Oregon's gonna have to shore things up considerably is pass

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Speaker 2: coverage at linebacker. They got some supremely talented linebackers, but

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Speaker 2: they're young and instill an experience. Then that facet of

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Speaker 2: the game. It's just not something you do a whole

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Speaker 2: lot at the high school level. That is where that

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Speaker 2: game could be one or lost. It's where it could

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Speaker 2: really loosen things up.

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Speaker 1: Shall I say?

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Speaker 2: For Ohio State's passing game, you can live if you're Oregon.

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Speaker 2: You can live with those big time receivers for Ohio

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Speaker 2: State just making plays, just being better than your guys.

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Speaker 1: You can live with that. What you can't live with

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Speaker 1: is making CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud do nothing more than throw the about five or

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Speaker 2: six yards over the middle and then watch his receivers

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Speaker 2: run free another twenty twenty five yards after catch because

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Speaker 2: you had missed tackles. You had missed assignments or misreads

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Speaker 2: at linebacker. That's one thing. The second thing, which is

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Speaker 2: imperative and we can't know it at this point, is

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Speaker 2: the status of Kabon Thibodeau, who may be one of

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Speaker 2: the best players in the country. There's no maybe to it.

378
00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 2: He's one of the best players in the country. He

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Speaker 2: has the ability. He's a supremely talented pass rusher to

380
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Speaker 2: change a game, one of very few players in America

381
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Speaker 2: you would say that about. And he's spraining his ankle

382
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Speaker 2: last week. He's questionable right now. Oregon needs him to

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Speaker 2: win the game. Feel pretty confident in saying that. Number two,

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Speaker 2: and the way we do these games if there's a

385
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Speaker 2: two touchdown spread is we spend a lot of time

386
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Speaker 2: talking about the underdog because the spread is what it

387
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Speaker 2: is for a reason.

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Speaker 1: I don't need to tell you all the advantages Ohio

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Speaker 1: State has.

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Speaker 2: We want to paint a picture of how the upset

391
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Speaker 2: could possibly happen. Oregon needs to do more stuff than

392
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Speaker 2: Ohio State. There's a lot that Oregon needs to do.

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Speaker 2: This is not a pickham game. It's a two touchdown

394
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Speaker 2: spread for a reason. So Oregon's got to force the

395
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Speaker 2: issue a little bit more. They probably have to win

396
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Speaker 2: the turnover battle. They probably have to take more risk offensively. Really,

397
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Speaker 2: a lot of these things have to happen in conjunction.

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Speaker 2: But their offensive game plan last week will not get

399
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Speaker 2: it done now. I think they understand that. I don't

400
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:01,800
Speaker 2: think they're using a mirror image game plan here, but

401
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,680
Speaker 2: Oregon's got to give themselves a chance. Last week's game plan,

402
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Speaker 2: and to be frank with you, the kind of game

403
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,040
Speaker 2: plan they've gone into battle with a few too many

404
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 2: times as of late, will not get it done.

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Speaker 1: Now. This makes you uneasy if you're a guy like

406
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,680
Speaker 1: Mario Christopaal, I know it makes you uneasy.

407
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 2: But if you've ever taught a kid to ride a bike,

408
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 2: like you know, you push them and you push them

409
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:21,040
Speaker 2: and you push them.

410
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,120
Speaker 1: The training wheels are off and you're kind of guiding them.

411
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Speaker 2: Eventually, though, there comes a time where you got to

412
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Speaker 2: take your hands off their lower back and you just

413
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 2: got to let them glide. They may fall, they may not,

414
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,920
Speaker 2: but there's only one way to learn. You eventually got

415
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,360
Speaker 2: to let it go. And with Oregon, when you got

416
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 2: the kind of skill they have, and I know good

417
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Speaker 2: and well they have it, it hasn't been fully utilized.

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Speaker 1: This is the week you got to do it. And

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Speaker 1: it's high risk, high reward, Absolutely it is.

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Speaker 2: But like I said, the default setting is not you

421
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Speaker 2: being on equal footing with this team. You're going into

422
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Speaker 2: what will be a packed house, extremely hostile environment, the

423
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,880
Speaker 2: most incredible atmosphere your kids will have played in. You've

424
00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,080
Speaker 2: got enough athletes, You've recruited well enough, and so you

425
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 2: got to take some risk. Ohio State doesn't They don't

426
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 2: have to take as much risk. They're in their backyard.

427
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,920
Speaker 2: They got the better roster. You got to take some risk.

428
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,200
Speaker 2: You gotta let go of the bike, and you gotta

429
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Speaker 2: let your horses run. It's what you got to do.

430
00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 2: You gotta let your athletes play, and you got to

431
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 2: use a little bit more than fifty three yards they

432
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 2: give you as opposed to just the one hundred vertical.

433
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Speaker 2: You gotta get those guys in space more and you

434
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Speaker 2: gotta trust.

435
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,200
Speaker 1: You gotta trust Anthony Brown.

436
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 2: You may not feel supremely confident about it, but you

437
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 2: gotta trust him because this is going to be the

438
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 2: fastest team that Ohio State faces.

439
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 1: In the regular season. But it doesn't matter if you.

440
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 2: Don't use all that space, and that's a welcome That

441
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,400
Speaker 2: is a welcome idea. By the way, if Kerry combs

442
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 2: in that defense, is you playing in a phone.

443
00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:43,439
Speaker 1: Booth, they welcome that. He'd love you to do that.

444
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 2: In fact, he get out of the way and let

445
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,719
Speaker 2: you line up in any formation you want to, in

446
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 2: bunt sets and whatnot. He'd love for you to do that.

447
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 2: Run into that brick wall all day. What he doesn't

448
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,119
Speaker 2: want is he doesn't want to see you all of

449
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 2: a sudden with those wider splits. He didn't want to

450
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,720
Speaker 2: see those receivers taking up that entire field, and he

451
00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 2: doesn't want you distributing the ball to a number of

452
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 2: different playmakers, including the backs out of the backfield. That's

453
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 2: not what Ohio State wants to see. They're interested in

454
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 2: watching you play the way you have played, to be

455
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 2: perfectly clear. So thirdly, as it relates to last week,

456
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 2: here's where we started, here's where we land. Before we

457
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: make the prediction as it relates to last week, I

458
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 2: am pretty confident in saying that Ohio State went into

459
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 2: the Minnesota game and Oregon went into the Fresno State game,

460
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 2: and the offensive game plans are what a lot of

461
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 2: people use as a term and it's very overused, but

462
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,879
Speaker 2: I think it's accurate here. They had sort of vanilla

463
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 2: game plans, they had do enough and survive in advanced

464
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 2: type of game plans, and both of them almost got

465
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 2: bit by it.

466
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 1: A lot of you don't think this happens. This does happen.

467
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 2: Whatever these passing games are capable of, this is where

468
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,200
Speaker 2: you'll find out about it. Because no one in Columbus, Ohio,

469
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,720
Speaker 2: had the Minnesota game circled to unveil every facet of

470
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 2: their passing attack.

471
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 1: They had the Oregon game circled. No one in Eugene.

472
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 2: Oregon looked to the schedule and said, boy, we're unloaded

473
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 2: on no. They said, here's what we're gonna use against Fresno.

474
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,879
Speaker 2: Here's everything we're gonna use in week two, and we're

475
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 2: gonna let the chips fall where they may. In Columbus,

476
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,400
Speaker 2: that is why I expect a better offensive showing from

477
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 2: both teams, or if it's not a better offensive showing,

478
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 2: they're gonna end up turning the ball over, which I

479
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 2: think will ultimately decide a couple of scores in this game,

480
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 2: by the way, because there will be more risk taken

481
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 2: through the air by each team, fully believe, even Ohio State.

482
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: I fully believe that.

483
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,680
Speaker 2: So Jesse, let's take a look at what Vegas thinks,

484
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 2: and let's take a look at what.

485
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: The late kick model thinks. The model performed pretty.

486
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 2: Well across the board last week, by the way, so

487
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 2: the noonkickoff here. The Caesars line currently is Ohio State

488
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,399
Speaker 2: minus fourteen and a half. Our number is even bigger.

489
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 2: Our number is at Ohio State minus sixteen and a half.

490
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 2: I expect a different level of play from Oregon offensively

491
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 2: this week, detailing and reasoning being a lot of the

492
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 2: things I just said. Because of that, I will pick

493
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 2: Ohio State to win the game. I actually think the

494
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 2: number is gonna come inside to touchdowns.

495
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 1: I think they'll be more competitive.

496
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 2: I think, quite frankly, Ohio State, not Ohio State.

497
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: They won't be surprised.

498
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 2: I think some of America will be a little surprised

499
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 2: at how effective Oregon is Saturday.

500
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people expect them to get

501
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 1: blown out.

502
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:16,439
Speaker 2: Or at the very least they expect it to be

503
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 2: competitive early and then Ohio State stretches it late.

504
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 1: I think Oregon's going to play four quarters with them.

505
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna win, but I think they'll

506
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 2: be very competitive, and if those turnovers do start going

507
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 2: their way, they absolutely have a puncher's chance of winning.

508
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 2: Give me Buckeyes to win, give me Ducks to cover.

509
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 2: Let's move it on. I'm not just gonna do all

510
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 2: the game previews stacked on top of each other this week,

511
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 2: mainly because it makes me a horse and I just

512
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 2: talk myself into the ground. So what we're gonna do

513
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,120
Speaker 2: is we're gonna split them up, and right now, JP

514
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 2: Poll Week two time, there's your incut calling in fact,

515
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: here's your new incut because that'll sound sloppy. Three two one,

516
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: JP Whole Time Week two edition. A quick refresher. This

517
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 2: is not a ranking system. This is not how I

518
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: would fill out an AP ballot if I were on

519
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 2: the playoff committee. This is not how I would rank

520
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 2: the teams. For instance, we started out this season with

521
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 2: Cincinnati at eighteen. I would never rank Cincinnati at eighteen.

522
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 2: I Power rated them at eighteen. The only purpose behind

523
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 2: this thing is to tell you who I would favor

524
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 2: against two or hoops I would favor against hoops on

525
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 2: a neutral field. So what we like to do is

526
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 2: go twenty five to one. I'm gonna give it to

527
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 2: you really quick. We don't spend like fifteen minutes on

528
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,400
Speaker 2: this because it's kind of pretentious to do so if

529
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 2: labeling a poll with your own initials is not already

530
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 2: pretentious enough, So.

531
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 1: Let's go twenty five to twenty one. Here. Minnesota did

532
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 1: not fall very far.

533
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 2: In fact, Minnesota, their grade, which I don't show you,

534
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 2: I just show you their ranking did not fall at

535
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 2: all because they performed as we expected them to perform

536
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 2: against Ohio State. They fell two spots because a couple

537
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 2: of teams we had to bump up. So Minnesota is

538
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 2: at twenty five. Auburn hops into the twenty five or

539
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 2: twenty four spot. They hop five spots up. They are

540
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 2: at number twenty four. Michigan is ranked I hate that

541
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 2: they lost Ronnie Bell because he's worth He's worth a

542
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,479
Speaker 2: little something to us as a player in terms of

543
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 2: just raw point total. Michigan's at twenty three. They hopped

544
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 2: up four spots. One of the big fallers this was Miami.

545
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: You got to be careful with this stuff because there

546
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 2: is a steep drop off point past about the fourth

547
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 2: or fifth or sixth team in the country where Alabama's

548
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 2: going to blow anyone out, and so it doesn't matter

549
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: if you're ranked eighth or eighteenth or twenty eighth, they'll

550
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,679
Speaker 2: just put the same look and final score on you.

551
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 2: So we are careful with this. I'm not dropping Miami

552
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 2: off a cliff. They did drop a couple spots, and

553
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 2: then they dropped a couple more spots. It looks like

554
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 2: cause teams rose above them. So Miami's at twenty two.

555
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: Iowa is at twenty one. Going to talk a lot

556
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 2: more about Iowa coming up later in the show. Top

557
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: twenty time here. LSU, we dropped them as far as

558
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: any team we dropped in the entire poll this week.

559
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: In fact, they were the biggest mover of any team.

560
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 2: It is very rare that you see a ten point

561
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 2: change on our board, but we dropped LSU from ten

562
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 2: to twenty. That has a lot to do with intangibles

563
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 2: as well as tangibles. North Carolina is at nineteen. We

564
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 2: dropped them seven spots. That's another big drop. Our biggest

565
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 2: moves are week one to week two, so this is

566
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 2: probably one of the last times you'll ever see moves

567
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 2: this big. Utah is at eighteen virtually unchanged. Southern col

568
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: bumped up a couple of spots to seventeen. TCU. We

569
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 2: are very high on TCU. I wish I could have

570
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 2: gotten the bed out to you. I bet them at

571
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 2: eight this week. They're at ten and a half now,

572
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 2: so it's not gonna be a rom and noodle pick.

573
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: But I love TCU. Right now, they're at sixteen, bumping

574
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 2: it up into the top fifteen. The Oregon Ducks going

575
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 2: on the road this week to Ohio State. I've got

576
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: them at fifteen. That is down four spots.

577
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 1: Now.

578
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 2: The model, as I told you, was kind of confused

579
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 2: because the model looked at Oregon's relative lack of efficiency

580
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: against Fresno and it did what it did. I looked

581
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 2: at it, and I think there's more there. But this

582
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 2: is the model's poll, this is not my poll. Texas

583
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 2: jumps up pretty big time. They are up eight spots

584
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: to number fourteen, and they got another shot this week

585
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: to impress even more against Arkansas. Number thirteen is Florida.

586
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 2: They're up two spots. Wisconsin dropped four spots. I know

587
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: a lot of you were going to look at that

588
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 2: and think we didn't drop them enough.

589
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 1: It was a competitive game, one for four in the

590
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 1: red zone.

591
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 2: That's the kind of stuff that in terms of future

592
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: predictability doesn't always carry over. So we got Wisconsin at twelve.

593
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 2: Notre Dame is at eleven. Probably some controversy there too.

594
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 2: I happened to think that it was pretty impressive they

595
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: held on the other night and then we get to

596
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 2: the top ten. Anyone stay up last night through all

597
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 2: the targeting penalties. Anyone watched the Labor Day night game.

598
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: Ole Miss was there. Ole Miss one convincingly man one

599
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:27,880
Speaker 2: of the running backs not to get into another time

600
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 2: zone down to the goal line when I think a

601
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 2: lot folks on defense thought the game was over and

602
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 2: running back didn't think it was over. Anyway, we got

603
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 2: to all Miss at ten, had him at fourteen. AP

604
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: didn't even have him ranked. So everyone, as we told

605
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,199
Speaker 2: you after week one, we dialed it out for you.

606
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: I said, after week one, the AP will have them ranked.

607
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 2: Well it is after week one. The AP came out

608
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 2: today they have them ranked. There's still not high enough

609
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 2: on them. We got all Miss at number ten, and

610
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: I would put it to you like this, find me

611
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 2: ten other teams that you would pick confidently over Ole

612
00:25:59,000 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 2: Miss if they.

613
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: Played tomorrow neutral field.

614
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 2: Given how impressive and improved their defense looked last night,

615
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 2: and knowing what ole Miss is offensively, they didn't have

616
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 2: Alane Kiffin Colin plays last night.

617
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: That's a big deal. They can tell you all they

618
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 1: want to about Jeff Levy. That's a big deal.

619
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 2: So Ole Miss at number ten. Cincinnati is a huge riser.

620
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 2: The model screwed up on Cincinnati. I'll apologize for the model,

621
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 2: but I don't want to take blame. It's the model's fault.

622
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: So we have corrected for Cincinnati. They're number nine. Now

623
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 2: Iowa State is at number eight. They are down two spots,

624
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 2: struggling against Northern Iowa. More on that in a second.

625
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 2: And then we got Penn State at number seven. Penn State,

626
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 2: I am going to warn them, ball State is going

627
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 2: to come in there Saturday and you're coming off the

628
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 2: Wisconsin game and you got Auburn on deck and ball

629
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 2: State's twenty two point underdog.

630
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 1: Do what you're supposed to do.

631
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: From the model and myself to you do what you're

632
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,360
Speaker 2: supposed to do. Texas A and M is at number six.

633
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: For the rest of the way, it's almost unchanged. So

634
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: let's go quickly.

635
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: Top five.

636
00:26:55,800 --> 00:27:00,199
Speaker 2: Oklahoma is down three spots. That's the biggest fall at

637
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 2: number five. Still got questions at quarterback. I dialed it

638
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: out for you in par bade detail the other night.

639
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: I'm not going to go down that road again. Clemson

640
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 2: at number four, Ohio State at number three. Georgia is

641
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 2: up three spots. The number one and two teams in

642
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 2: the country or Alabama and Georgia. So as far as

643
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: that goes, we agree with the AP quickly. To wrap

644
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 2: it up, I think Jesse made a fancy full screen

645
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 2: for you. I don't show you the entire top twenty

646
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: five again, but it is Bama Georgia one to two,

647
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 2: and there you see the entire top ten for the record.

648
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 2: Ole Miss at number ten. That's about as high as

649
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 2: I've seen anyone have them ranked. We feel good about

650
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: ole Miss right now. Okay, let's move it on. Texas

651
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 2: is interesting too. Outside the top ten, where do.

652
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: We have them.

653
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: We got Texas at fourteen, and I mentioned the long

654
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: Horns cause we're about to talk about him here because

655
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 2: we got a big game in Fayetvil.

656
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 1: It's a big game.

657
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I think a lot of folks because it's

658
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 2: been two years, you still haven't really gotten back acclimated

659
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:02,239
Speaker 2: with what road situations mean in college football. Going on

660
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 2: the road is hard. It is hard to do. And

661
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: now that you've got a third of your roster in

662
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 2: any given situation that has not played in those environments,

663
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 2: it's even harder. So you may look at this point

664
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 2: spread and you may say Texas minus six and a half.

665
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 2: Man they blew out Louisiana last week, Louisiana is better

666
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 2: than arkansaw.

667
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: That blah blah blah blah. Okay, Well, this is a

668
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 1: point spread for a reason. It's public.

669
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 2: You can go bet on it if you want to.

670
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 2: So let's jump into this thing. Texas minus six and

671
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 2: a half at Arkansas. This is a Saturday seven pm

672
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 2: kickoff Eastern Time on ESPN.

673
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: This is going to be fun. I mean, you saw.

674
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 2: Arkansas struggle against Rice. What is our biggest rule on

675
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 2: the show, Do not lose to food. And sure enough,

676
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 2: Arkansas almost lost to Rice last week, but they got

677
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 2: it together in the m and they rallied and ended

678
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 2: up pulling away and covering. That's got a hurt. Holding

679
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 2: that Rice ticket, that's gotta hurt. But then again, I

680
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 2: would ask you what is a responsible adult doing holding

681
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 2: a rice ticket? And that's rhetorical because when you see

682
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 2: the kind of ticket I'm gonna ask you to hold

683
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 2: in the Romnuel Express. Later I'll be the biggest hypocrite

684
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: in the world. So let's dive in here. Simple flip

685
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 2: that Arkansas has to fix. This time last week, we

686
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: were going into a game and we were wondering, is

687
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: Texas gonna have enough synergy? Hudson card, first time starter

688
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 2: at quarterback, don't know about the wide receiver position, don't

689
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 2: know about the offensive line. How's Texas gonna find some consistency? Well,

690
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 2: I'll tell you how they did it, and I'm going

691
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 2: to tell you what Arkansas has to keep him from

692
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 2: doing this week. Texas last week third down passing eight

693
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 2: of ten. It's gonna win you a lot of football games, Arkansas.

694
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 2: They can specialize, They can bread and butter that thing.

695
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 2: Just by shaving that in half. You shave that in half,

696
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 2: you take, for all we know, two or three possessions

697
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 2: away from Texas.

698
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: That's enough to change a football game.

699
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go through a couple more things here, but

700
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 2: just Texas offensively on third down, That's how they won

701
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 2: and pulled away last week. That's how you can keep

702
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 2: it a tight ball game this week. Secondly, the Arkansas

703
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 2: quarterback kJ Jefferson. Some of you have watched him, many

704
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 2: more of you have not. He ran the ball a

705
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: few times last week. Know how Sam Pittman and his

706
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 2: staff watched that game film against Rice and don't run

707
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 2: kJ Jefferson twelve to fifteen times this week. It's one

708
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: of your biggest weapons and surest weapons that you can

709
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 2: have on a team that still has a lot of.

710
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: Question marks about it.

711
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 2: Offensively, kJ Jefferson, if at least he's able to fall

712
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 2: forward and pick up some added yardage in first downs

713
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 2: and extend drives or at most rips off runs like

714
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: he did I think to open the scoring for Arkansas

715
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 2: the other day, or how about doubly at most he's

716
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: able to hit a couple of pop passes once you've

717
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 2: established that run by him throwing on the run.

718
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 1: That's a different dynamic. It's a dynamic they have to use.

719
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: Arkansas has to use that.

720
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: They don't have fifteen different ways to light you up,

721
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: but this is one of the ways that they can

722
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 2: move the chains. They can keep possession of the ball

723
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: and keep Texas off the field. Also, as you noticed

724
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 2: last week, if you're a Texas Longhorn fan, especially when

725
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: you were watching that Louisiana game, did you notice something

726
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 2: that you didn't notice a whole lot this time last year,

727
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 2: the last couple of years. There is an a word.

728
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 2: It's not austin. It's not attitude. It's adjustment. I know

729
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 2: someone watching in Forts and Georgia right now who would

730
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 2: swear up and down that the stupidest thing in football

731
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 2: is waiting until halftime to make adjustments. It's just it's

732
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 2: like the bane of his existence. And that would be my.

733
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 1: Father, by the way.

734
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: What he would say is everyone's got a headset on.

735
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: Everyone's watching the same game. Team has to come to

736
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 2: the sideline after every possession. Why can't you fix it

737
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 2: with four minutes to go until the half? Well, Sark's

738
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 2: good at doing that. They made adjustments throughout the game

739
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 2: last week Texas did and offensively they kept improving throughout

740
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 2: the game. Well, that's all well and good. You now

741
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 2: have to carry it over week to week. What he's

742
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 2: not gonna do he being Steve Sarkisian. What he's not

743
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: gonna do is back off being aggressive. He is an

744
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 2: aggressive play caller. He is a go for the throat.

745
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: Kind of dude.

746
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: He does not feel bad for you. You get a

747
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: gimpy ankle out there, He's not going to wait a

748
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: couple of series and let you get back to full

749
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 2: speak because it wouldn't be fair to go after you.

750
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: He's gonna go after the throat. That's what he did

751
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 2: to them last year. You remember Steve Sarkisan's face, Bury Odom,

752
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: Barry Odem, the Arkansas defensive coordinator. They went up there

753
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 2: when sark was Withbama and I think it was December

754
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: last year and just pasted Arkansas.

755
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 1: Now, that was a different dynamic, obviously, when you.

756
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: Got DeVante Smith in the house and you got the

757
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: kind of talent that he did at Alabama, it's a

758
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 2: different world obviously. But I think if they grabbed that

759
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 2: early lead, and Texas was able to do it finally

760
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: last week, if they grabbed that early lead, you forced

761
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 2: Arkansas into a lot of uncomfortable positions. You're forcing them

762
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: into having to play catch up with the kind of

763
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: quarterback that they're not ready to let throw the ball

764
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: thirty thirty five times right now. So if you're Arkansas.

765
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 2: You got to avoid that deep end by any means necessary,

766
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: special teams. I don't care what you got to do.

767
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: You got to keep Texas from being up a couple

768
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 2: of possessions early. So let's take a look, Jesse, at

769
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 2: what the Vegas versus Late Kick model situation is right now.

770
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: I remember last week it loved Texas. I did not

771
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 2: hand it out on our super secret Friday night Instagram

772
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 2: live gambling chat. I told you the model is screaming

773
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 2: take Texas minus the points. Didn't and that's my fault.

774
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 2: This week, what does it say? Well, the Caesars line

775
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: in Vegas right now is Texas minus six and a half.

776
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 2: The model is virtually dead. Even with the Vegas number,

777
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 2: we got Texas minus six. So I'm looking at this

778
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 2: today and I'm asking myself, I'm trying to make a

779
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 2: case for Arkansas, not just to cover, I'm trying.

780
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 1: To make a case for him to win.

781
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 2: I went back and watched both games at my desk

782
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 2: earlier today and I.

783
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: Couldn't paint the picture.

784
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's not there, but if I'm trying

785
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 2: to be right here, I'm gonna take Texas to win

786
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: and Here's what I think is going to happen in

787
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 2: the end. I think what is a brutal game early

788
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 2: on and what I think is a completely lit Reynolds

789
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: razorback stadium early on is going to realize how long

790
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 2: a four quarter game is. I think there's gonna be

791
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:44,959
Speaker 2: a time in this game if you're holding an Arkansas

792
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: ticket where you feel more than confident not only do

793
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: you got the plus six and a half in your

794
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 2: back pocket, but we may just win this thing outright.

795
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 2: And then at the end of the game, Texas will

796
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 2: not only have won somehow, they will have covered. And

797
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 2: you're gonna look at it and you're gonna say, how

798
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 2: did Arkansas not at least cover forget winning, how did

799
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 2: they not at least cover? In fact, if you bet

800
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: Rice last week the same way you felt with that

801
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 2: Rice ticket, well that's gonna have its roll reverse this week.

802
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: So it would be massive.

803
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 2: Now if Sam Pittman gets this win, and I do

804
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 2: not discount the passion and the over the cliff mentality

805
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:15,439
Speaker 2: they have there.

806
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: I know I've talked about it ad nauseum.

807
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,320
Speaker 2: I just feel a little bit better about Texas right now.

808
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take Texas to win, and I'm gonna

809
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 2: take a minus anything under seven.

810
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 1: We move on.

811
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:28,919
Speaker 2: We got one more game preview, and I got two

812
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 2: best bets on the Ramannudle Express to add and I'm

813
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 2: keeping an eye on the board here to make sure

814
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 2: the lines don't move. It's probably irresponsible for me to

815
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 2: wait till the end of the show. Make a note

816
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: Colin best bets at the beginning of the show from

817
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 2: now on.

818
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: All right, So.

819
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 2: Big Saturday for us all? Isn't it Big Saturday for us?

820
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 1: All?

821
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 2: Because if you are a fan of any team that's

822
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 2: not in the Big ten or Big twelve, then you

823
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 2: have just latched yourself onto where the Late Kick Renaissance

824
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 2: Tour is headed.

825
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 1: Saturday.

826
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: We are going to Ames, Iowa. In fact, I'm not

827
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 2: wait until Saturday. I'm flying up there before that. It

828
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: is going to be fantastic theater, it's going to be

829
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 2: great atmosphere. I'll be on the sideline for it. All

830
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 2: of you need to be watching that. You find out

831
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 2: what your level of college football fandom is by the

832
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,720
Speaker 2: way you feel towards games like this. There's a crowd

833
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: out there, the tourist crowd, for example, that we talked

834
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 2: about in various forms of pejorative connotation on this show,

835
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,720
Speaker 2: and the tourist crowd would look at Iowa State welcoming

836
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 2: in Iowa and then say, who cares about that game?

837
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 2: You don't care about it, move on. But you're a tourist.

838
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 2: We're more die hard over here. This show is not

839
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: for the college football tourist. This show is for passionate

840
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 2: college football fans. Here's what you're going to have. As

841
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 2: I said, you find out a lot about how passionate

842
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,399
Speaker 2: you really are as a college football fan by how

843
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: you view games like this, Because this is going to

844
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 2: be awesome.

845
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:53,280
Speaker 1: You've got the rivalry aspect.

846
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,280
Speaker 2: It's the biggest game in the history of this rivalry,

847
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: first time ever in the Siehawk game, both of them

848
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 2: are ranked. It will be an out of this world

849
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: insane game day atmosphere, so much so that game day

850
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: is going to be there. Late kick's gonna be there.

851
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: Urgency if you want it, you'll have it in spades.

852
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 2: You've got max effort. You've got an entire roster on

853
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 2: both sides as well as coaching stats willing to go

854
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 2: towards the cliff, to the cliff and then over the

855
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,720
Speaker 2: edge of the cliff. It is these people's super Bowl.

856
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: It doesn't have to mean anything in the grand scheme

857
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: of the college Football Playoff, because not everything in this

858
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 2: sport has to revolve around the playoff. There was a time,

859
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 2: believe it or not, prior to twenty fourteen, kids, where

860
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: things not associated with the national championship got to garner

861
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 2: some of the spotlight on any given Saturday. This game

862
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 2: will rightfully garner the spotlight this Saturday. It's going to

863
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 2: be an incredible environment. And if you've never experienced it,

864
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 2: do yourself a favor. Find yourself a seat, turn on

865
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 2: the TV Saturday at four point thirty, watch this game,

866
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,720
Speaker 2: and say, this feels like one of the biggest defense

867
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 2: I've ever seen. I did not know that I could

868
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 2: become emotionally invested in an Iowa Iowa State game.

869
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: You can. It's called college football.

870
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 2: That's what makes it unique unto any other sport on

871
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: this planet.

872
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 1: It's going to be great to watch.

873
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: So now that I've finished the promo for the game,

874
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 2: let me actually break down the game.

875
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: Colin. I need to need to defan myself. We got

876
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:13,439
Speaker 1: a little worked up there.

877
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 2: Okay, so this point spread on this game is confusing

878
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 2: people a little bit because the last thing in your

879
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 2: mind was Iowa State struggling and just puttering their way

880
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 2: narrowly past northern Iowa.

881
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Iowa just totally would shipper in Indiana.

882
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 2: And a lot of you, be honest with your stuff,

883
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: probably didn't watch the game.

884
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 1: So you just saw the final score.

885
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 2: You saw three and a half point spread, and then

886
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: you saw thirty four to six, and you said.

887
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 1: Oh, I was for real. I'm not telling you, they're

888
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:38,919
Speaker 1: not for real.

889
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 2: Of what I am telling you, just to briefly explain

890
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: why Iowa State and not Iowa is a four point

891
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 2: or four and a half point favorite. Is the odds

892
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 2: maker's community looks at this and they understand the context.

893
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,280
Speaker 2: I'm having talked to one today. Here's exactly what they're thinking.

894
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 2: And this is the kind of person, by the way,

895
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 2: who has to put out the right number or they

896
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 2: lose their job. It said, we view to Iowa State

897
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 2: as purely being in survive and advance mode.

898
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: We knew it going in.

899
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 2: We expected an ugly game, and secondly, we had a

900
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,319
Speaker 2: misleading final in the Iowa game.

901
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 1: Now I need to very carefully and very.

902
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 2: Slowly explain what I mean by that, because it was

903
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 2: a misleading final. It's not misleading in terms of who

904
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 2: won the game. Thirty four to six is the final.

905
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 2: Iowa ran all over Indiana. It's an embarrassing loss for

906
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,840
Speaker 2: Tom Allen in Indiana. What we're talking about here, strictly

907
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 2: in terms of defining future predictability is you don't take

908
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 2: a game where you had twenty points off turnovers fourteen

909
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 2: defensive points and just assume that'll be the case every week.

910
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 2: So the opinion on these two teams for an odds

911
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 2: maker is virtually unchanged.

912
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: Last week.

913
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 2: One of them struggled as a big favorite, one of

914
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 2: them pulled away as a small favorite. But yet nothing's

915
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 2: changed really in the perception. This is pretty much what

916
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 2: this line was going to be no matter what. So

917
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:58,720
Speaker 2: let's dive in two elements to this Iowa State offense

918
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 2: that I expect to be marginally to significantly improve this week.

919
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:03,439
Speaker 1: Number one.

920
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 2: As of earlier this afternoon, Charlie Culler is back at practice.

921
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 2: That is, they're all American tied.

922
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 1: End.

923
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 2: It is a huge addition. I don't think I need

924
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 2: to explain why you know about Breeze Hall. I'm going

925
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: to talk about him in a second. You know about

926
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 2: brock Purty, for better or for worse. You think you

927
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 2: know everything you need to know about him. Charlie Culler

928
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 2: is not a household name maybe in Iowa, but not nationally.

929
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 2: He's a difference maker, big time difference maker. He's back

930
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 2: at practice today. He will in all likelihood play on Saturday.

931
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 2: So you combine him with Will McDonald, who I think

932
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 2: is the biggest difference maker out wide for Iowa Stata offensively,

933
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 2: and it creates a passing dynamic that makes you choose.

934
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 2: Whereas if those guys aren't on the field, you don't

935
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,720
Speaker 2: have to choose. You can just focus solely on Breese Hall.

936
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 1: You got to choose.

937
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 2: There are probably more dangerous elements at this point to

938
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 2: Iowa State's passing game than you're used to seeing them have. Secondly,

939
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,760
Speaker 2: the tailback position will be must see. But you probably

940
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 2: think I'm talking about Breese Hall, and I am, but

941
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,919
Speaker 2: I'm not strictly talking about him. First thing we got

942
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 2: to talk about with Breese Hall is how close to

943
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,479
Speaker 2: one hundred percent is he? Because he's a little gimpy

944
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 2: towards the end of last week and It's not that

945
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 2: we don't expect him to play Saturday. How effectively will

946
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 2: he play. That's what makes the return of guys like

947
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 2: Charlie Cohl are all the more important. But secondly, let

948
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 2: me ask you a question. What do you think about

949
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 2: Tyler Goodson? In Iowa City, you're saying we love him.

950
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,439
Speaker 2: In the Big Ten, your hardcore fans are saying, boy,

951
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: we hate playing him. But nationally in Laredo, Texas, in

952
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 2: let's say o calli Florida, what do you guys think

953
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: about Tyler Goodson? And the reality is a lot of

954
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 2: you are saying, is he my cousin? Is he the postman?

955
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: Who's Tyler Goodson? You don't know who he is? Do

956
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 2: you a lot of you don't know who he is?

957
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 2: There's probably a twenty to one ratio of college football

958
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: fans who recognize the name Breese Hall to folks who

959
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 2: recognize the named Tyler Goodson.

960
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 1: Not okay, that makes you a bad person.

961
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 2: What I am telling you is it lights a fire

962
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: under the seat of people like Tyler Goodson. Because that's

963
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 2: a really good running back for Iowa. And he's not

964
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 2: a true freshman either. And so when you watch the

965
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 2: tail back back this Saturday. Not that they'll ever be

966
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 2: on the field at the same time, but when you

967
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 2: watch it, it's a perfect situation for a guy with

968
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 2: a spotlight going into a game to have it jerked

969
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 2: away from him, and having a guy like Tyler Goodson

970
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 2: not only take that spotlight but make it shine on

971
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 2: him as he.

972
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: Ends up being the difference in who wins and loses.

973
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 2: Because if I will wins this game, mark my words,

974
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 2: it will be because of Tyler Goodson having a career afternoon.

975
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 2: So with that in mind, let me tell you what

976
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 2: the model thinks about the game. Then I'll tell you

977
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 2: what I think about the game. I could literally do

978
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 2: a show just on this game, very excited about it.

979
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 2: Vegas has this currently at Caesars as Iowa State minus

980
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 2: four and a half. Well, the model disagrees across a

981
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 2: key number. The model is a lot shorter, still likes

982
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 2: Iowa State, but the model is at minus two. So

983
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,280
Speaker 2: the model is screaming at you to take those points.

984
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: What do we think about this game?

985
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 2: I'm going to tell you now from a point spread perspective,

986
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 2: I have no feel if we pick the game against

987
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 2: the spread, I would take any points you gave me

988
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 2: on either side. To be honest with you, remember they've

989
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 2: been screaming this at nauseum in Iowa, but nationally, some

990
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 2: of you may not realize Matt Campbell has yet to

991
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 2: beat Iowa oh in whatever four or five however often

992
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 2: he's played them, has not beaten them. That is the

993
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 2: five hundred pound guerrilla in the room up there is yeah,

994
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 2: you're great, and yeah you've gotten us to heights.

995
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,359
Speaker 1: We've never seen the program you're gonna be at IYEA

996
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 1: with this year. Matt. Good to see you're gonna beat

997
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: Igaha this year.

998
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 2: So not that that really gets baked Inet to a

999
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 2: point spread, but yeah, maybe maybe it does because it

1000
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 2: is an intangible factor in play.

1001
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 1: Here.

1002
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 2: Let me tell you the two deciders in this game

1003
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,399
Speaker 2: that land me on the pick. I'm gonna make Number one.

1004
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 2: I am not one hundred percent sold on the effectiveness

1005
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 2: of Iowa's defensive line.

1006
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: They got a lot of green guys there.

1007
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,919
Speaker 2: They're good, but they're green, and I think there're gonna

1008
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 2: be some plays to be had by Iowa State.

1009
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 1: And number two.

1010
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 2: Sam Laporta from watching that game in Week one against

1011
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 2: Indiana was their go to option through the airs the

1012
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 2: tight end for Iowa Sam Laporta and who because there

1013
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 2: are some other guys who should be performing. I'm thinking

1014
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 2: of a couple in particular, but for whatever reason, just

1015
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 2: hadn't happened through week one, not that they needed it

1016
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 2: last week, They're gonna have guys other than Sam Laporta

1017
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:07,280
Speaker 2: step up. And for those two reasons, given the safety

1018
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 2: that I think I have in siding with Iowa State's offense,

1019
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 2: you take the points, not even picking against the spread.

1020
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 2: I'll take Iowa State to win and get Matt Campbell's

1021
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 2: first ever victory against their in state rival, the Iowa

1022
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 2: Hawk guys. But I'll tell you who's going to be

1023
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 2: the real winner is anyone who tunes into that game,

1024
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 2: And us, for having the privilege of being there, can't

1025
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 2: express enough how forward we are looking to being in

1026
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 2: Iowa State Saturday. Okay, speaking of which, well actually it's

1027
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 2: not speaking of which at all. It's one of those

1028
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 2: just transitions that, like word vomit comes out even though

1029
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 2: what I'm about to say has nothing to do with that.

1030
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 1: Game we just talked about.

1031
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 2: We got two new editions for the Ramannudle Express to

1032
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 2: wrap the show up. Okay, so before these lines move,

1033
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 2: and let me make sure they're still where they should be.

1034
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 1: I think they are.

1035
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 2: Okay, Oklahoma State minus twelve, we gave you that earlier

1036
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 2: in the week. I gave you Memphis minus four earlier

1037
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,760
Speaker 2: in the week. We have two new additions, Texas State

1038
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 2: plus one. They're traveling to Florida International. Believe it or not.

1039
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna break the game down, but I am

1040
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 2: giving you Texas State plus one. And do you know,

1041
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 2: just as much as I made fun of people betting

1042
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 2: on Rice earlier, we are going to bet on Vanderbilt

1043
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 2: football after they got housed at home by an SCS

1044
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 2: opponent last week. Why, of course, we don't bet teams.

1045
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 2: We bet numbers, and our numbers are actually saying that

1046
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt's gonna win the game out right. It is a

1047
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 2: Vicky Valancourt special. I texted Barton Simmons today, I'm so

1048
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 2: confident in it. That ain't no guests. That's how it's

1049
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 2: gonna be. Vanderbilt's just gonna win the game out right.

1050
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 2: I don't know how it's gonna happen. It's just gonna happen.

1051
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 2: And so we're gonna take vanderbook plus seven. We're not

1052
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 2: money lining them even tho. I'm not that dumb, but

1053
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 2: we are gonna take Vanderbook plus seven. So in summary,

1054
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 2: we've got Memphis minus four, we got Oklahoma State minus twelve.

1055
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 2: We're taking Texas State plus one. We like them on

1056
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 2: the money line as well, if that's where you can

1057
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,399
Speaker 2: get them, and we like Vanderbook plus seven, well we're

1058
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 2: betting Vanderboot plus seven. I would be foolish to actually

1059
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,320
Speaker 2: watch that game. That can only lead to bad things.

1060
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: So we got a full show under our belt now

1061
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 2: forty five minutes, beautifully done. Make sure you are following

1062
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 2: on Twitter and Instagram. I think you guys who were

1063
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,280
Speaker 2: following last week got a taste in several different instances.

1064
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 2: What I'm talking about the added value is there. You

1065
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 2: got the behind the scenes access, you got super secret

1066
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: yet to be named fully late night gambling chat on Friday.

1067
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 2: Planning on doing that again this Friday night whenever we

1068
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,839
Speaker 2: get into a hotel up there. So make sure you're

1069
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 2: following Twitter and Instagram at late Kick Josh, and thank

1070
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: you so much, so so much for taking screenshots of

1071
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: the podcast we're talking about.

1072
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:35,840
Speaker 1: The show and tagging me in it.

1073
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 2: Whenever you post on Twitter and on Instagram, really honest,

1074
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 2: thank you so much.

1075
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: So get those posters ready for game day Saturday, becau.

1076
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,760
Speaker 2: Isn't anyone who can prove to me that they got

1077
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 2: on air with a late kick or PAYT State Frights

1078
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 2: poster and they got airtime on ESPN. I don't know

1079
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna send you, and I'm gonna send you something,

1080
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 2: So get to work until then for Director Colin, for

1081
00:45:57,520 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 2: our entire crew in Connecticut.

1082
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 1: I'm Josh Pate. Have a great rest your evening, and

1083
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 1: God bless you.

1084
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 2: M