WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 27th, 2026

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day

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<v Speaker 2>for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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<v Speaker 2>from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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<v Speaker 2>live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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<v Speaker 2>am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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<v Speaker 2>anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Henrietta trees of Vader

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<v Speaker 2>Partner's writing. At this point, a partial shutdown of the

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<v Speaker 2>federal government on January thirty one appears hardly likely. However,

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<v Speaker 2>there is bipartisan support for limiting the shutdown to just

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<v Speaker 2>the Department of Homeland Security. Henrietta joins us now for more. Henrietta,

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the program. Immigration enforcement. The President won the argument,

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<v Speaker 2>he won the election. Is he now losing the country?

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's pretty clear.

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<v Speaker 4>And you have a whole bunch of Republicans, especially those

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<v Speaker 4>that are in very at risk states, coming out clearly

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<v Speaker 4>condemning the moves from Ice that resulted in the death

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<v Speaker 4>of Alex Preedy over the weekend, and that kind of

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<v Speaker 4>disruption and the fracture and the Republican Party is how

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<v Speaker 4>you know that things need to change from the status

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<v Speaker 4>quo that we have right now. I think, in addition,

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<v Speaker 4>the personnel swaps that the White House is trying to

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<v Speaker 4>do in Minnesota are just not sufficient. I was speaking

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<v Speaker 4>with some Minnesotas last night and they don't see a

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<v Speaker 4>difference between Bovino and Home End. So they need to

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<v Speaker 4>see quite a bit more out of the White House

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<v Speaker 4>than what is currently on the table. The solution is

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<v Speaker 4>actually pretty simple from a Senate procedural process, and from

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<v Speaker 4>a House process. It's maybe technically difficult. You got to

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<v Speaker 4>get those members back, as Tyler was just mentioning, but

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<v Speaker 4>you strip out the DHS funding from the underlying package

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<v Speaker 4>of bills, get unanimous consent in the Senate to do that,

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<v Speaker 4>move ahead, and you avoid a shutdown of the Defense Department,

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<v Speaker 4>a shutdown to the Labor Department, and we proceed to

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<v Speaker 4>just focus on Ice Henrietta.

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<v Speaker 5>Just two weeks ago, you had an odds of a

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<v Speaker 5>government shut down twenty five percent. Now they skyrocketed, So

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<v Speaker 5>you think now, what is the percentage that we will

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<v Speaker 5>shut down on Friday? And how long will the shutdown be?

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<v Speaker 5>Because remember we just got over in the fall, the

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<v Speaker 5>longest ever government shutdown.

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<v Speaker 4>I hear a lot of optimism behind the scenes from

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<v Speaker 4>Democrats and Republicans that the path forward, as I just mentioned,

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<v Speaker 4>is pretty simple.

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<v Speaker 3>You just strip out DHS funding.

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<v Speaker 4>And the problems for the White House is really optics.

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<v Speaker 4>They have to sort of admit that there was a

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<v Speaker 4>catastrophe in Minnesota and there needs to be remedies here

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<v Speaker 4>and restrictions put on ice. The White House is tacitly

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<v Speaker 4>acknowledging that already with the personnel moves. But my base

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<v Speaker 4>case expectation is that they do find an off ramp here.

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<v Speaker 4>Neither Republicans nor Democrats want this shutdown to happen, which

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<v Speaker 4>is very different than the October first shutdown that we

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<v Speaker 4>saw last year.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, the President so called Governor Waltz yesterday and the

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<v Speaker 5>mayor of Minnesota. Does that bode well for the White

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<v Speaker 5>House or for Democrats?

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<v Speaker 6>He's the one making that.

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<v Speaker 4>Outreach, you know, I think this is a case where

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<v Speaker 4>the American public is demanding change, and both sides are

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<v Speaker 4>prepared to give a little bit. Whether that's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be sufficient to get you changed to peace of legislation

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<v Speaker 4>on the floor remains to be seen. But every side

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<v Speaker 4>is recognizing that the killings have to stop, and it's

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<v Speaker 4>so overwhelming in public polling that it's just obvious you

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<v Speaker 4>need to put your partisanship aside. You can't be talking

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<v Speaker 4>about the Second Amendment, you can't be talking about ICEL

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<v Speaker 4>like it's okay right now.

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<v Speaker 3>You got to move forward from both sides.

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<v Speaker 5>So if we have this off RAM but the DHS

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<v Speaker 5>funding stripped out, what do Democrats need to see to

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<v Speaker 5>then sign up for DHS funding because majority leader Fund's

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<v Speaker 5>going to need them to pass that through at the

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<v Speaker 5>end of the day.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, absolutely, I think that Democrats are still pulling together

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<v Speaker 4>a concrete list of what they want. There were some

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<v Speaker 4>conference calls throughout the day yesterday. I think the most

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<v Speaker 4>extreme is probably for DHS head Christy Noam to resign,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's definitely going to be something that stays on

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<v Speaker 4>the front burner. She's actually scheduled to testify on March third,

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<v Speaker 4>if I'm not mistaken, so her time in the spotlight

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<v Speaker 4>hasn't really even begun yet, and I think that's going

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<v Speaker 4>to be a major point of focus for the Democrats,

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<v Speaker 4>and it's a convenient out for a lot of the

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans who want to see some real visible change to

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<v Speaker 4>the immigration policies that are really dragging the president down

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<v Speaker 4>right now with the American public.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm glad you brought that up.

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<v Speaker 5>Do you think she is going to make it to

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<v Speaker 5>that hearing because we have had Senator Tillis block all

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<v Speaker 5>these DHS appointees until she decided to come on the

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<v Speaker 5>Hill for hearing, and they've been dragging that out.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, they really have. And March third is a really

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<v Speaker 4>long time away. Think about what's going to come in

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<v Speaker 4>between them. The President has to deliver a State of

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<v Speaker 4>the Union address. Immigration is going to have to be

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<v Speaker 4>in the forefront. You know. Hopefully there's no other escalation,

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<v Speaker 4>and ICE really stepped back from its very aggressive sort

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<v Speaker 4>of patrolling of the streets right now. You have a

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<v Speaker 4>lot to do before we get to March third. I

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<v Speaker 4>think the question of whether she makes it that long

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<v Speaker 4>is a really good one. I don't know, but it's

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<v Speaker 4>not a guarantee.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, speaking of they Senator from North Carolina, he's got

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<v Speaker 2>a big role to play in the process to nominate

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<v Speaker 2>and confirm the next FED chair, Henrietta. I thought this

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<v Speaker 2>was going to happen months and months ago. What's happening?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I've said this to clients quite a bit.

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<v Speaker 4>If you think in the grand scheme of things of

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<v Speaker 4>what's going on in DC, from trying to annex Greenland

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<v Speaker 4>to raising tariffs in South Korea to the killings in Minnesota,

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<v Speaker 4>the FED parlor game is actually the least you know,

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<v Speaker 4>insane or really scary or problematic part of the administration's

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<v Speaker 4>focus right now.

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<v Speaker 6>They don't need.

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<v Speaker 4>A predecessor for j. Powell until May, so they can

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<v Speaker 4>drag this out. It's already been, you know, a couple

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<v Speaker 4>of months past due. Secretary Besson said, you know it

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<v Speaker 4>was coming at Davos. I think they got time, and

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<v Speaker 4>I don't think it's a high stakes thing. Obviously the

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<v Speaker 4>Street is very closely watching it, but it's really just

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<v Speaker 4>a parlor game between a couple of options that the

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<v Speaker 4>Street is pretty comfortable with. So as long as you know,

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<v Speaker 4>even if there is a new hat thrown into the ring,

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<v Speaker 4>like Secretary Bessett as a potential nominee, I don't think

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<v Speaker 4>that that's comparatively a problem for the street, and the

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<v Speaker 4>White House is happy to have that parlor rate game

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<v Speaker 4>go on for a while longer.

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<v Speaker 2>Stay with us, multplinbeg Savannah's coming up off to this.

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<v Speaker 7>I have Mary Bara here, the CEO and chair at

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<v Speaker 7>General Motors, I'm pleased to say, and Mary really knocking

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<v Speaker 7>the cover off the ball with these earnings that you

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<v Speaker 7>see with your outlook, more than two billion dollars in

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<v Speaker 7>extra profit and profit jump for twenty twenty six. Let

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<v Speaker 7>me start by asking what you attribute this to. Is

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<v Speaker 7>it just the great sales and the financing of the

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<v Speaker 7>higher margin vehicles like a Sierra Can Escalade.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, first, I have to start by thanking the entire

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<v Speaker 8>Generalmoters team, our suppliers, and our dealers for doing a

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<v Speaker 8>phenomenal job. You know, twenty twenty five was an exceptional year,

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<v Speaker 8>especially when you look at all the challenges that we face,

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<v Speaker 8>and I think it really demonstrates one of the core

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<v Speaker 8>capabilities of GM, and it's our agility and our resilience.

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<v Speaker 8>But the core of it starts with our great product portfolio,

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<v Speaker 8>whether it's very affordable evs like the Chevrolet Tracks all

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<v Speaker 8>the way up to you know, a supercar like what's

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<v Speaker 8>behind me with the Corvette ZR one x.

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<v Speaker 6>So couldn't be more proud of the team.

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<v Speaker 7>The ZR one x with twelve hundred and fifty horse power,

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<v Speaker 7>it is indeed, I would call it a hypercar. Mary,

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<v Speaker 7>That's not the bread and butter though for you. You

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<v Speaker 7>really make these highly profitable, highly capable big trucks, and

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<v Speaker 7>Americans are buying more of those and fewer.

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<v Speaker 6>Of the evs.

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<v Speaker 7>Do you expect to continue to sell fewer of the EV's.

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<v Speaker 7>I know you took a seven billion dollar and change

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<v Speaker 7>right down for that business in twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, you know the whole industry. We were on a

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<v Speaker 8>path that we were working to get to forty to

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<v Speaker 8>fifty percent evs by twenty thirty. So now that the

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<v Speaker 8>regulatory environment has changed and the consumer incentives have gone,

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<v Speaker 8>there is going to be slower EV adoption. We're still

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<v Speaker 8>committed evs and we've got a great portfolio that we're

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<v Speaker 8>working on taking costs out. But in the meantime, we

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<v Speaker 8>also have a great internal combustion engine platform, and you're right,

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<v Speaker 8>full size trucks are one of the strengths we have

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<v Speaker 8>as well as full size SUVs, mid sized crossovers. So

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<v Speaker 8>we really have a strong lineup across the board and

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<v Speaker 8>that is really what is, you know, fueling our business success.

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<v Speaker 7>I have had as the host of Hot Pursuit of

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<v Speaker 7>Bloomberg podcast about cars, the opportunity to drive a lot

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<v Speaker 7>of your evs, from the Sierra EV to the Hummer

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<v Speaker 7>EV to the Escalade IQ, and they're fantastic products. Are

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<v Speaker 7>you Are you not deterred that Americans aren't buying more

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<v Speaker 7>of these vehicles? You know how capable, how capable they are,

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<v Speaker 7>you know how we useful they are in daily life.

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<v Speaker 7>What needs to happen for more Americans to buy these evs?

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<v Speaker 8>Well, I think that consumer is very rational when they're

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<v Speaker 8>making a decision about what CARDI by.

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<v Speaker 6>Let's remember it's one.

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<v Speaker 8>Of the most important and expensive decisions that they make.

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<v Speaker 8>And one of the things we have to continue to

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<v Speaker 8>work on to drive EV adoption is a more robust

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<v Speaker 8>charging infrastructure, and that still is continuing to happen. So

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<v Speaker 8>every quarter, more and more chargers are available. I think

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<v Speaker 8>we as people in their individual communities, see that they've

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<v Speaker 8>got a robust charging network and believe if they have

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<v Speaker 8>to go on a road trip there's that as well.

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<v Speaker 8>They're going to make that choice. And what we do

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<v Speaker 8>see is once someone buys an EV, they see about that,

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<v Speaker 8>they see the technology, they see the driving experience, never

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<v Speaker 8>having to go to the gas station, and they stick

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<v Speaker 8>with evs. So I think it will happen over time,

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<v Speaker 8>and that's why during this period we've already got a

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<v Speaker 8>great portfolio of EV's. We're going to continue to work

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<v Speaker 8>take cost out to get our EV portfolio profitable, and

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<v Speaker 8>we're going to be well positioned as EV demand grows

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<v Speaker 8>over the next hand full of years.

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<v Speaker 7>What about the hybrids, Mary, I mean, GM was really

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<v Speaker 7>a front runner not only in EV technology, but in

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<v Speaker 7>hybrid technology with the Chevy Volt. I remember when the

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<v Speaker 7>Tahoe came out with a six lider gas engine and

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<v Speaker 7>electric battery power. Will you start to sell more of

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<v Speaker 7>the hybrid vehicles.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, we have always focused. As you said, we have

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<v Speaker 8>great hybrid technology, we have great EV technology. We're one

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<v Speaker 8>of the few OEMs that invested in a dedicated EV

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<v Speaker 8>platform that allows us to have the portfolio we have.

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<v Speaker 8>So we're focused on the endgame and we have affordable evs.

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<v Speaker 8>So I think that's where our primary focus is. We

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<v Speaker 8>understand the technology, we have it in other regions, you'll

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<v Speaker 8>see us with a handful of hybrids as we move forward,

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<v Speaker 8>But right now, our focus is really on having the

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<v Speaker 8>right internal combustion engine portfolio and the right EV portfolio

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<v Speaker 8>moving forward. And I think we're demonstrating that that's a

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<v Speaker 8>winning formula because over the last four years we've gained

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<v Speaker 8>share each year.

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<v Speaker 7>I wonder how much your racing efforts push towards that,

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<v Speaker 7>And I know this is something I've talked about with

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<v Speaker 7>your president Mark Royce on a number of occasions, but

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<v Speaker 7>you're getting into so many more leagues. I watched the

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<v Speaker 7>hypercars in Lament this summer and looking forward to watching

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<v Speaker 7>you participate in Formula one. Do you think this really

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<v Speaker 7>boosts your brand awareness around the world.

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<v Speaker 6>Absolutely, we definitely see that it does.

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<v Speaker 8>And I think when you look at Cadillac and the

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<v Speaker 8>strength of Cadillac, it is true luxury, true American luxury.

0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:34.079
<v Speaker 8>F one is the place that Cadillac should be showcased.

0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:36.720
<v Speaker 8>So we're very proud to be a full works American team,

0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:42.000
<v Speaker 8>anxious to enter this year in Australia, but I think

0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.160
<v Speaker 8>it's going to be very important for the Cadillac brand,

0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:46.640
<v Speaker 8>and we do have a really robust program that takes

0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:49.200
<v Speaker 8>what we learn on the track and we incorporate into

0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.959
<v Speaker 8>our vehicles to make our vehicles better. It's true for

0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:55.760
<v Speaker 8>Chevrolet as well as Cadillac and the entire portfolio.

0:11:56.360 --> 0:12:02.080
<v Speaker 7>I got to ask about the finance arm. GM Financial

0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:05.200
<v Speaker 7>provided a massive liquidity buffer I think thirty six billion

0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:10.600
<v Speaker 7>dollars there. How do you think about, because you're doing buybacks,

0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:12.760
<v Speaker 7>returning a lot of cash to shareholders. I'm sure they're

0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:14.920
<v Speaker 7>happy about the stock is near an all time high,

0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:18.480
<v Speaker 7>but how do you think about putting that aside for

0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:22.840
<v Speaker 7>protection versus supporting shareholder returns, you know, in case the

0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:24.280
<v Speaker 7>autocycle turns at some point.

0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:29.280
<v Speaker 8>Well, we've indicated that eighteen to twenty billion is our

0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.080
<v Speaker 8>cash target. Last year we finished the year strong at

0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.120
<v Speaker 8>around twenty two billion, and we have a capital allocation

0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:38.520
<v Speaker 8>framework of first reinvesting in the business, second making sure

0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:40.959
<v Speaker 8>that we have an investment grade balance sheet, and then

0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:43.600
<v Speaker 8>returning cash to shareholders. And we think, based on the

0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:45.840
<v Speaker 8>strength of our business and the cash that we generate,

0:12:46.080 --> 0:12:48.400
<v Speaker 8>we can continue to do that well.

0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:49.760
<v Speaker 6>And that's where our focus is.

0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.439
<v Speaker 7>You know, the financial arm has added I think more

0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.560
<v Speaker 7>than two billion dollars to twenty twenty five profits, So

0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 7>it's really a contributor, kind of a quiet profit stable lot.

0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:03.920
<v Speaker 7>Is that turning though, as delinquencies and charge offs rise

0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:05.920
<v Speaker 7>a little bit? Is that starting to concern you as

0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:08.199
<v Speaker 7>consumer balance sheets fin out.

0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 6>Well?

0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:11.839
<v Speaker 8>It's something that we watch very closely that I think

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.839
<v Speaker 8>GMF does a great job in their business, and it

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.600
<v Speaker 8>is a very important business. Shout out to the gm

0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.160
<v Speaker 8>Financial team for the great work they do. It's also

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:23.640
<v Speaker 8>very important from a loyalty perspective because having a captive

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.360
<v Speaker 8>and being able to interface with a consumer on a

0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 8>monthly basis as they make their car payments, I think

0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 8>is just part of the ecosystem that we're building to

0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:36.680
<v Speaker 8>really make sure we have that great relationship with the customer,

0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 8>and it shows that we have the highest loyalty in

0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:40.440
<v Speaker 8>the US of any OEM.

0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:46.680
<v Speaker 7>I look at loan originations in the fourth quarter and

0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:49.760
<v Speaker 7>I see that they're down pretty substantially, about twenty one percent,

0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:53.360
<v Speaker 7>and I wonder if that's a deliberate choice by GMF.

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:58.720
<v Speaker 7>Are you tightening your credit standards or is that reflecting

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.280
<v Speaker 7>a softer demand today? Rates and prices which are both

0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 7>fairly high.

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 8>Well, the car company and the finance company. They work

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 8>together to make sure we have the right equation and

0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.800
<v Speaker 8>what's going to optimize profitability for the enterprise. And so

0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:15.679
<v Speaker 8>I don't think you can look at one quarter. It

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:17.600
<v Speaker 8>goes up and down depending on what's happening in the

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:18.440
<v Speaker 8>external world.

0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 6>But GMF is a very.

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 8>Important part of our portfolio of companies, and again, as

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:26.840
<v Speaker 8>I said, it works in concert with the car company

0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 8>to make sure that we have a strong business overall.

0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 7>I have to when I think of credit standards, I

0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:35.040
<v Speaker 7>think of First Brands among some of the other businesses

0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:38.480
<v Speaker 7>that have fallen to Chapter eleven this year. And I

0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:40.920
<v Speaker 7>saw a report in the Financial Times overnight that you,

0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 7>along with Ford, your crosstown rivals, are negotiating to help

0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 7>send them a rescue line of sorts. Can you comment

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 7>on that at all, Mary.

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 8>Well, what we're very much focused on is while we

0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:57.000
<v Speaker 8>make sure we have secure supply is that transition period.

0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:59.800
<v Speaker 8>So I think what you see General Motors and other

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 8>ims working together to do is make sure that we

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 8>don't have supply chain disruptions because of their financial situation.

0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:06.920
<v Speaker 6>We've been working on it.

0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 8>But I think as we look at you know, the immediate,

0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.920
<v Speaker 8>what's happening next week, next month. That's the work that

0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 8>we're doing, as well as in parallel making sure we

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.520
<v Speaker 8>have longer term supplies. So that's what you're seeing with

0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 8>that announcement.

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 7>When you talk about a supply chain, I think about

0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 7>the concessions you're able to get out of your suppliers.

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:27.360
<v Speaker 7>I know that you're trying to keep costs down. You're

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 7>under a thread of tariffs or you already face tariffs,

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 7>and a lot of the places you've produced, how much

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 7>of those tariffs have you been able to pass through

0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 7>to consumers where you haven't been able to cut costs

0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:40.560
<v Speaker 7>or get concessions from suppliers.

0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 8>I think if you look at our portfolio, I think

0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.080
<v Speaker 8>you know, for the most part, we've worked to offset

0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:51.720
<v Speaker 8>it and with efficiencies across the board, making smart decisions

0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 8>on where we produce, and so very little has gone

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.280
<v Speaker 8>to the consumer because we are such a cost sensitive

0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:02.560
<v Speaker 8>business and it's such a competitive business. But we continue

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 8>to look at all those levers and we stay focused

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 8>on consumer affordability.

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:09.960
<v Speaker 7>You're operating Mary in the heart of America, and America's

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:14.040
<v Speaker 7>undergone some really tough times, especially over the last few

0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 7>weeks in Minnesota. What are you doing, What is General

0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 7>Motors doing to kind of keep the temperature down to

0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:22.640
<v Speaker 7>kind of keep the calm at your company and with

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 7>your suppliers.

0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.240
<v Speaker 8>Well, we want to make sure that everyone stays focused

0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.240
<v Speaker 8>on the business and is part of the solution, meaning

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:32.720
<v Speaker 8>de escalating. I believe that's starting to happen. So that's

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 8>what we continue to reinforce.

0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:38.320
<v Speaker 2>Stay with us. Mulblemberg. Savannah's coming up off to this

0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 2>a sensitive federal reserve. The Central Bank is set to

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:52.400
<v Speaker 2>make his first right decision of the YA tomorrow as

0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.000
<v Speaker 2>threats to FED independence build. Joining us now is the

0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 2>former Kansas City FED president as the George as the

0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:00.720
<v Speaker 2>welcome bank to the program. Before we get into substance,

0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:04.119
<v Speaker 2>the Economic Bank drop the policy. I want to pick

0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.880
<v Speaker 2>up on the more assertive stunts, the more aggressive posture,

0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.000
<v Speaker 2>if you will. The Chairman Pouse seemed to be taken

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:13.160
<v Speaker 2>this year to defend central Bank independence. I'd love your

0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 2>reaction to that and whether you believe he'll carry that

0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:17.640
<v Speaker 2>into the news conference tomorrow afternoon.

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:19.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:23.560
<v Speaker 1>Good, Marnie, Jonathan. I think the Chairman had to take

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.240
<v Speaker 1>this move. I think we have been dancing around these

0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:31.960
<v Speaker 1>threats to independence and really trying not to make too

0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:35.199
<v Speaker 1>much of it. But I think the Chairman reached a

0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:39.480
<v Speaker 1>point where he really did have to speak out and

0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.359
<v Speaker 1>send a message to the public about how important the

0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 1>decision making of the Central Bank is that it not

0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:50.080
<v Speaker 1>get caught up in political issues. And as you saw,

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:55.680
<v Speaker 1>the reaction from around the world from former policy makers

0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:58.160
<v Speaker 1>was quite supportive of that, as was I.

0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:01.080
<v Speaker 5>That's when it comes to the video he released in

0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 5>reaction to the subpoena from the DOJ. But he also

0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:06.240
<v Speaker 5>recently went to the Supreme Court to attend the hearing

0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 5>of Lisa Cook, and the administration said that he was

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:13.800
<v Speaker 5>now politicizing that hearing. What's your reaction to that movement

0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 5>from J Powell?

0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:20.440
<v Speaker 1>Well, I think the Supreme Court's decision is absolutely consequential

0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:24.280
<v Speaker 1>to the future of the Federal Reserve and thinking about

0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:30.600
<v Speaker 1>how this body will weigh in on the ability of

0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:35.000
<v Speaker 1>removing FED governors. So clearly, I think as a leader

0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:40.200
<v Speaker 1>of this institution, his interest would be high and understanding

0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:43.080
<v Speaker 1>how the courts might be talking about this and what

0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:45.200
<v Speaker 1>the arguments are that are presented.

0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.240
<v Speaker 3>I didn't view that as a political.

0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 5>One given these stances we have seen from him, do

0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:51.720
<v Speaker 5>you think in the press conference he's going to be

0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 5>more willing to engage when reporters obviously ask a number

0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:57.600
<v Speaker 5>of questions that are really on this line when it

0:18:57.600 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 5>comes to politics.

0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.520
<v Speaker 1>Well, I'm quite sure he's going to get a number

0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:05.800
<v Speaker 1>of questions, and I suspect he will address them at

0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:09.760
<v Speaker 1>the same time, though, trying to keep the focus on

0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:12.520
<v Speaker 1>what it is this committee is really focused on, and

0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:16.640
<v Speaker 1>that is responding to economic conditions in the United States,

0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.680
<v Speaker 1>and so yes, I think he will have to address

0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:23.480
<v Speaker 1>what are likely to be a number of questions, and

0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:26.200
<v Speaker 1>he may do so in the fashion he did in

0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:30.920
<v Speaker 1>his previous statement. Again bringing it back though to this

0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:33.159
<v Speaker 1>is the job of the Central Bank and where he

0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:35.160
<v Speaker 1>most likely will want to focus today.

0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:37.760
<v Speaker 2>As did you think that the economic backdrop at the

0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:39.600
<v Speaker 2>moment gives them the space the hit post for a

0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:40.160
<v Speaker 2>little while.

0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:45.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I agree that it's time to take a breath

0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.080
<v Speaker 1>on these rate cuts. They've made a number of cuts

0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:51.800
<v Speaker 1>that are still feeding through the economy, and so I

0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:56.119
<v Speaker 1>think it makes sense in the face of elevated inflation

0:19:56.720 --> 0:20:00.480
<v Speaker 1>and what seems to be coming this year, that it

0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:02.760
<v Speaker 1>would be a good time to pause and really take

0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.560
<v Speaker 1>stock of how they assess the economy on both sides

0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:07.199
<v Speaker 1>of their mandate.

0:20:07.359 --> 0:20:09.359
<v Speaker 2>What do you expect is coming this year on the

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.560
<v Speaker 2>inflation side.

0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Well, my own view, Jonathan is that inflation is something

0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:19.320
<v Speaker 1>we've got to keep a careful eye on because I

0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:23.439
<v Speaker 1>continue to hear this idea that the full impulse of

0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:26.879
<v Speaker 1>the tariffs has not fed through yet. I think companies

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:30.719
<v Speaker 1>have been trying to do their best in managing pushing

0:20:30.760 --> 0:20:33.560
<v Speaker 1>through those costs, but you could expect I think that

0:20:33.680 --> 0:20:35.680
<v Speaker 1>the first half of the year we will see more

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:40.240
<v Speaker 1>price pressures coming in there. You have easy financial conditions now,

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:44.080
<v Speaker 1>and you have a fiscal situation that I think is

0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:46.800
<v Speaker 1>going to be a tailwind both on the consumer side

0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:50.679
<v Speaker 1>and business side with some of the new rules coming

0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:53.520
<v Speaker 1>into play, and so I think all of that should

0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:58.840
<v Speaker 1>make us very cautious about inflation expectations staying firmly anchored

0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:02.159
<v Speaker 1>at that two percent and really raising I think the

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.920
<v Speaker 1>attention that the Fed has to pay on that inflation mandate.

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:09.879
<v Speaker 5>I understand you're concern about inflation potentially pushing higher, but

0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:13.600
<v Speaker 5>hasn't the Fed basically acknowledged that they're no longer looking

0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:16.200
<v Speaker 5>for two percent target given how many cuts we've had

0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:17.800
<v Speaker 5>and it's been closer to three.

0:21:19.520 --> 0:21:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Well, they've certainly moved in the direction of putting more

0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:25.399
<v Speaker 1>weight on the labor market part of their mandate and

0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:29.119
<v Speaker 1>have emphasized that. And I think you know fair enough

0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:31.879
<v Speaker 1>to look at that, because you have seen a dramatic

0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:36.119
<v Speaker 1>change in the data from a labor market that was

0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:39.080
<v Speaker 1>really tied a number of job openings and that's sort

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:42.719
<v Speaker 1>of reversed and pulled back. At the same time, though

0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:45.960
<v Speaker 1>this is a FED that just released its framework saying

0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 1>two percent was the target, they have to keep their

0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:53.080
<v Speaker 1>eye on inflation expectations. And the truth is, households and

0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:57.080
<v Speaker 1>businesses are beginning to agitate a bit, if you will,

0:21:57.200 --> 0:22:01.480
<v Speaker 1>even in these survey measures about their concern about future inflation.

0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:03.960
<v Speaker 1>So I think it's a very good time just to

0:22:04.040 --> 0:22:08.360
<v Speaker 1>reassess and be quite confident about your assessment of inflation

0:22:08.560 --> 0:22:10.119
<v Speaker 1>before making further rate cuts.

0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:12.399
<v Speaker 5>When it comes to the potential tariff paths through, we

0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:14.720
<v Speaker 5>have heard from Amazon they're saying that more of the

0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:17.080
<v Speaker 5>tariff pass through is actually starting to creep into some

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:21.120
<v Speaker 5>of the prices. But do you think that consumers will

0:22:21.119 --> 0:22:23.000
<v Speaker 5>bear the brunt of it, or really, will it still

0:22:23.040 --> 0:22:25.119
<v Speaker 5>be corporate America that tries to bear the brunt of

0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:27.280
<v Speaker 5>it this year as well?

0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:29.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Marie, We'll have to see how this plays out.

0:22:29.960 --> 0:22:32.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, so far, I think businesses have been very

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:38.159
<v Speaker 1>careful not to overwhelm consumers with these price increases. But

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:40.520
<v Speaker 1>there is a limit to that, as you know, and

0:22:40.600 --> 0:22:44.520
<v Speaker 1>I think consumers have been bearing the cost of this,

0:22:45.200 --> 0:22:47.320
<v Speaker 1>and I think they will continue to.

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:48.440
<v Speaker 6>We saw some.

0:22:48.560 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 1>Of that, I think come through in the Fed's Page

0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:54.640
<v Speaker 1>book most recently to say that is still very much

0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:57.280
<v Speaker 1>on the minds of businesses as they come into this

0:22:57.359 --> 0:22:57.760
<v Speaker 1>new year.

0:22:57.880 --> 0:22:59.880
<v Speaker 2>I s's so strange to have a conversation right now,

0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:02.720
<v Speaker 2>this really robust backdrop for economic growth at the same

0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:05.880
<v Speaker 2>time we have these concerns about a weaker labor market.

0:23:06.160 --> 0:23:08.240
<v Speaker 2>What do you think explains that disconnect of the last

0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:11.280
<v Speaker 2>twelve months and do you see it reconciling in the

0:23:11.320 --> 0:23:12.240
<v Speaker 2>next twelve.

0:23:13.480 --> 0:23:17.000
<v Speaker 1>Well, it's easy to start with the data, Jonathan and say,

0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:20.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, the government shut down gave us a little

0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:22.639
<v Speaker 1>scramble as it relates to that.

0:23:22.680 --> 0:23:23.320
<v Speaker 3>So it's going to.

0:23:23.280 --> 0:23:26.280
<v Speaker 1>Take a little while, both on inflation data and labor

0:23:26.280 --> 0:23:28.600
<v Speaker 1>market data to work through that, But I think we

0:23:28.680 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 1>also have to recognize that while demand has come off,

0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:35.520
<v Speaker 1>and you can say demand came off from employers because

0:23:35.520 --> 0:23:39.480
<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty, because of making more technological investments that would

0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:44.080
<v Speaker 1>substitute for labor, you've also seen the supply side be

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<v Speaker 1>hit directly too, and so those two things have left

0:23:48.040 --> 0:23:52.280
<v Speaker 1>us with an unemployment rate that looks pretty low all

0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:56.920
<v Speaker 1>all in, but it does make you ask questions about

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<v Speaker 1>where that labor market is headed when you know people

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<v Speaker 1>characterize a low higher low fire environment and you see

0:24:04.560 --> 0:24:08.240
<v Speaker 1>very narrow sectors of the economy that are actually adding labor.

0:24:08.680 --> 0:24:12.280
<v Speaker 1>So again, I think all of that weighs in the

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<v Speaker 1>balance for the FED of saying, let's wait and understand,

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<v Speaker 1>given what we've done so far, what these dynamics are

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<v Speaker 1>in the labor market.

0:24:20.920 --> 0:24:24.440
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0:24:24.480 --> 0:24:28.040
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