WEBVTT - Outliers, Revisited 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:15.796 Pushkin. 0:00:23.676 --> 0:00:26.996 In the middle of our preparations for season seven of 0:00:27.036 --> 0:00:32.076 This Your Favorite podcast, the Revisionist History team got on 0:00:32.116 --> 0:00:38.196 a train to Philadelphia, four of us carrying props, recording equipment, 0:00:38.676 --> 0:00:44.196 and extra microphones. Our destination the Gothic, ivy covered Cathedral 0:00:44.276 --> 0:00:48.276 of Higher Learning that is the University of Pennsylvania. And 0:00:48.356 --> 0:00:51.916 why did we go Because we had cooked up a 0:00:51.956 --> 0:00:55.796 little experiment and we were curious to see how it 0:00:55.796 --> 0:00:56.276 would fly. 0:01:03.396 --> 0:01:04.196 Thank you welcome. 0:01:05.476 --> 0:01:07.836 We commandeered one of the main lecture halls at the 0:01:07.876 --> 0:01:12.396 Wharton School. I did seventy five or so students, all seniors, smart, 0:01:12.636 --> 0:01:17.276 focused discipline, future masters of the universe, and asked them 0:01:17.316 --> 0:01:22.636 to answer ten simple questions, such as, how many years 0:01:22.676 --> 0:01:25.796 of your K twelve education were a public school and 0:01:25.836 --> 0:01:28.716 how many were a private school at the time of 0:01:28.756 --> 0:01:32.076 your graduation from high school? How many continents had you 0:01:32.156 --> 0:01:35.396 visited at any point during your middle school and high 0:01:35.436 --> 0:01:38.396 school years? Did your parents provide you with a private tutor? 0:01:39.516 --> 0:01:40.036 Are you doing that? 0:01:40.116 --> 0:01:45.996 Mister pretty good? Joined myself. I looked out at Rose 0:01:46.036 --> 0:01:49.356 and rose at eager students hunched over their deaths in anticipation, 0:01:50.076 --> 0:01:56.156 took a deep breath and began So my name is 0:01:56.156 --> 0:02:00.796 Malcolm Gladwell. I am the host of the podcast Revision's History. 0:02:00.876 --> 0:02:04.036 The theme of this season of Revision's History is experiments, 0:02:04.476 --> 0:02:08.916 and one of the experiments of this season involves all 0:02:08.956 --> 0:02:15.956 of you. So, you guys are guinea pigs. Yes, guinea pigs, 0:02:16.876 --> 0:02:19.516 because in the manner of all guinea pigs, they were 0:02:19.796 --> 0:02:22.396 entirely in the dark about what we had in store 0:02:22.436 --> 0:02:30.196 for them. And as you probably guessed from some of 0:02:30.236 --> 0:02:33.436 the questions that you were given, what I'm trying to 0:02:33.476 --> 0:02:38.196 do is I'm conducting an experimental investigation into the nature 0:02:38.236 --> 0:02:41.436 of the privilege of the people in this room. The 0:02:41.476 --> 0:02:45.116 students quickly finished the questionnaires and put their names and 0:02:45.196 --> 0:02:48.836 birth dates at the top. My producers, Elowise and Harrison 0:02:48.996 --> 0:02:50.756 are sitting at a big table at the front of 0:02:50.756 --> 0:02:53.276 the room, in full view of all the guinea pigs. 0:02:53.756 --> 0:02:57.476 They go through the completed questionnaires one by one and 0:02:57.596 --> 0:03:01.276 use the answers to generate a number, a score, which 0:03:01.276 --> 0:03:03.716 they write on a giant white sticker with a big 0:03:03.796 --> 0:03:08.796 fat sharpie. And now the real experiment begins. I'm going 0:03:08.836 --> 0:03:11.916 to sign every one of you a number. If they 0:03:11.916 --> 0:03:14.716 can figure out what their number means. They will understand 0:03:14.716 --> 0:03:18.556 something essential about how broken the system was that propelled 0:03:18.596 --> 0:03:21.996 them to the IVY League and how to fix it. 0:03:22.916 --> 0:03:24.916 Just peel off the back and I'd like you to 0:03:24.956 --> 0:03:28.036 fix the sticker to your chest so we can all 0:03:28.036 --> 0:03:30.516 see each other's numbers. You're going to look around the room, 0:03:30.556 --> 0:03:34.196 see everyone else's numbers, see your number, and hopefully that 0:03:34.316 --> 0:03:39.356 will aid you in your investigation of what exactly the 0:03:39.436 --> 0:03:42.356 nature of this experiment is. I'll just read the students 0:03:42.676 --> 0:03:46.156 sat there with their numbers stuck to their chests, looking 0:03:46.196 --> 0:03:49.996 around in befuddlement, trying to make sense of everyone's score. 0:03:50.476 --> 0:03:52.556 I tried to help them figure it out, gave them 0:03:52.676 --> 0:03:59.196 hints nudges. First, think about this. I gave you a 0:03:59.276 --> 0:04:02.636 series of questions. Some of those questions involved a yes 0:04:02.716 --> 0:04:06.356 or no answer. So you saw two people, Hellowy's and Harrison, 0:04:06.876 --> 0:04:10.396 who quite quickly, in the space of about five minutes 0:04:10.516 --> 0:04:14.036 ten minutes, went through seventy five or so responses and 0:04:14.036 --> 0:04:16.556 were able to very quickly and easily assign you a number. 0:04:17.036 --> 0:04:21.876 So think about this. Logically, it wasn't a complex algorithm, right, 0:04:22.356 --> 0:04:25.556 there was no computer used Alowys, How long would you 0:04:25.636 --> 0:04:27.236 say you were spending in, Harrison, how long would you 0:04:27.236 --> 0:04:32.796 spending on each questionnaire? Six seconds? 0:04:32.836 --> 0:04:32.996 Five? 0:04:33.116 --> 0:04:39.916 Six seconds? Okay, that's a clue, guys, let's go come on. Hi. 0:04:39.996 --> 0:04:40.876 My name is Abe. 0:04:40.996 --> 0:04:42.636 They might have just looked at the zip code, because 0:04:42.636 --> 0:04:45.116 that's a pretty good predictor of privilege just in and 0:04:45.156 --> 0:04:45.716 of itself. 0:04:46.756 --> 0:04:50.836 Abe has derived his hypothesis from question six, what is 0:04:50.876 --> 0:04:53.396 the zip code your family lived in during your high 0:04:53.396 --> 0:04:57.476 school years? Perhaps he speculates the number on his chest 0:04:57.596 --> 0:05:01.716 with some kind of complex, mysterious derivative of his zip code. 0:05:02.476 --> 0:05:03.916 I didn't see if you had a computer, but if 0:05:03.956 --> 0:05:04.476 you did. 0:05:04.836 --> 0:05:06.396 There was no El's Was there a computer? 0:05:06.996 --> 0:05:07.116 Now? 0:05:07.196 --> 0:05:08.476 I did have to use a calculator. 0:05:09.876 --> 0:05:12.556 Gota Abraham, with all due respect, are you suggesting that 0:05:12.596 --> 0:05:18.716 Eloise and Harrison had memorized every zip code? It's plausible 0:05:19.876 --> 0:05:25.276 they're very smart. Not that smart, I'm Zach. I think 0:05:25.396 --> 0:05:28.236 it really has to do strictly with the private versus 0:05:28.276 --> 0:05:32.556 public education system in the US. Nope, that's not what 0:05:32.636 --> 0:05:35.316 we were looking for. Hi, my name is Joseph. 0:05:35.756 --> 0:05:37.516 A question that I thought was very interesting on there 0:05:37.636 --> 0:05:39.276 was about if you have any siblings and if so, 0:05:39.396 --> 0:05:41.076 how many. 0:05:41.156 --> 0:05:42.396 Nope, not that either. 0:05:43.516 --> 0:05:44.516 Hi, I'm Kaylee. 0:05:44.716 --> 0:05:47.076 One that I don't think I've ever been asked in 0:05:47.116 --> 0:05:49.676 relation to this was if I drank when I was 0:05:49.716 --> 0:05:50.556 in high school? 0:05:50.996 --> 0:05:53.236 What age did I get drunk at? 0:05:55.156 --> 0:05:58.796 Kayley's referring to question number nine in high school, did 0:05:58.836 --> 0:06:01.756 you drink alcohol? And if yes, when did you first 0:06:01.756 --> 0:06:05.236 get drunk? Could you come up with any reason why 0:06:05.236 --> 0:06:06.756 I would have asked that question? Or do you think 0:06:06.796 --> 0:06:09.956 that's just one of the ones that I'm blowing smoke on? 0:06:11.036 --> 0:06:13.236 I have my own hypothesis, but I can't. 0:06:13.396 --> 0:06:17.836 Oh, come on, what if I'm wrong? This is all 0:06:17.876 --> 0:06:22.956 about being wrong? Oh, this is all about being wrong. 0:06:30.236 --> 0:06:32.836 Once upon a time, in two thousand and eight, I 0:06:32.836 --> 0:06:35.956 wrote a book called Outliers, the first chapter of which 0:06:36.356 --> 0:06:39.556 was devoted to a phenomenon discovered in the nineteen eighties 0:06:39.876 --> 0:06:44.316 by the Canadian psychologist Roger Barnsley. Here's some of what 0:06:44.396 --> 0:06:47.636 I wrote. The explanation for who gets to the top 0:06:47.676 --> 0:06:50.756 of the hockey world is a lot more interesting and 0:06:50.916 --> 0:06:55.956 complicated than it looks. Good, Lord, I do not sound 0:06:55.996 --> 0:06:58.796 like I'm enjoying reading my own book listening to this 0:06:58.876 --> 0:07:02.316 part of the Outliers audiobook. Now, I'll admit I have 0:07:02.356 --> 0:07:08.036 some regrets about that chapter. We'll get to that, I promise. Anyway, 0:07:08.156 --> 0:07:10.476 it occurred to me as I planned our trip to 0:07:10.516 --> 0:07:13.396 Philly that I should talk to Barnsley again and go 0:07:13.476 --> 0:07:17.556 over his discovery one more time, make sure I understood everything. 0:07:18.116 --> 0:07:20.716 So I called him up and asked him to retell 0:07:20.756 --> 0:07:23.596 the story of how in the early nineteen eighties he 0:07:23.676 --> 0:07:26.196 and his wife Paula stumbled upon what has come to 0:07:26.236 --> 0:07:28.916 be known as their relative age effect. 0:07:29.156 --> 0:07:34.516 We were living in Lethbvirge, Alberta, and we went to 0:07:34.556 --> 0:07:37.356 a Junior A hockey team. It was the Lethbridge Broncos. 0:07:37.396 --> 0:07:38.076 At that time. 0:07:39.316 --> 0:07:43.036 Barnsley's wife Paula started reading the game program, which had 0:07:43.076 --> 0:07:45.636 the rosters of both teams listed in it. 0:07:46.156 --> 0:07:49.596 Paula said over to me, Roger, when do you think 0:07:49.636 --> 0:07:54.076 all of these hockey players were born? And I remember 0:07:54.116 --> 0:07:56.196 thinking to myself, well, you know, that's kind of a 0:07:56.236 --> 0:08:00.276 silly question. So I did a quick calculation. I said, 0:08:00.316 --> 0:08:04.836 you know, Paula, they're average age eighteen. It's about nineteen 0:08:04.836 --> 0:08:07.196 eighty two, so they're probably all born in around nineteen 0:08:07.236 --> 0:08:10.476 sixty four. And she said, no, no, no, I'm not 0:08:10.556 --> 0:08:14.196 talking about the year. I'm talking about the month, and 0:08:14.276 --> 0:08:17.516 I said, what are you talking about? And she opened 0:08:17.556 --> 0:08:20.316 up the page of the program where they had listed 0:08:20.356 --> 0:08:24.356 the roster of the team, and it just jumped out 0:08:24.396 --> 0:08:27.356 at us, just jumped out that the majority of these 0:08:27.396 --> 0:08:31.476 players were January, February, March, and then you seem to 0:08:31.476 --> 0:08:33.556 get the aud April in May, and very few in 0:08:33.596 --> 0:08:37.516 the fall. And I said, my goodness, that's just remarkable. 0:08:39.556 --> 0:08:43.196 He went home and expanded his search further. Everywhere he 0:08:43.236 --> 0:08:47.676 looked in competitive hockey, same thing. For some reason, most 0:08:47.716 --> 0:08:50.396 players were born in the first part of the year. 0:08:50.876 --> 0:08:53.796 And that's when that famous forty thirty twenty ten by 0:08:53.796 --> 0:08:55.196 the Courters of the Year showed up. 0:08:59.316 --> 0:09:02.636 The famous forty thirty twenty ten phenomenon that he's talking 0:09:02.676 --> 0:09:05.476 about is what in Outliers I referred to as the 0:09:05.516 --> 0:09:10.356 iron law of Canadian hockey. Quote. In any elite group 0:09:10.396 --> 0:09:13.676 of hockey players, the very best of the best, forty 0:09:13.716 --> 0:09:16.516 percent of the players will have been born between January 0:09:16.556 --> 0:09:20.636 and March, thirty percent between April and June, twenty percent 0:09:20.956 --> 0:09:25.636 between July and September, and ten percent between October and 0:09:25.876 --> 0:09:27.316 December end. 0:09:27.396 --> 0:09:28.876 Quote. 0:09:30.196 --> 0:09:35.596 Now why is this. It's because Canada is obsessed with hockey, 0:09:35.956 --> 0:09:39.516 and coaches start picking players for all star traveling squads 0:09:39.676 --> 0:09:43.516 at the age of nine or ten. Since the eligibility 0:09:43.596 --> 0:09:47.396 cut off for Canadian hockey is January first, that means 0:09:47.396 --> 0:09:49.996 the coaches are choosing among nine year olds who are 0:09:49.996 --> 0:09:53.476 as much as twelve months apart, and twelve months age 0:09:53.476 --> 0:09:56.036 difference at the age of nine is a lot. The 0:09:56.156 --> 0:09:59.316 January kids are bigger and stronger and more coordinated than 0:09:59.356 --> 0:10:03.156 the December kids, which means that the January kid is 0:10:03.196 --> 0:10:05.676 more likely to be chosen by the coaches for the 0:10:05.716 --> 0:10:09.116 traveling squad, which means in turn that they will practic 0:10:09.116 --> 0:10:12.476 two or three times as often, play more games, have 0:10:12.636 --> 0:10:16.636 better coaches, better competition than the kids left behind, and 0:10:16.716 --> 0:10:20.596 what began as a completely arbitrary advantage based on a 0:10:20.636 --> 0:10:29.356 quirk of birthdays turns over time into a real advantage. 0:10:29.476 --> 0:10:33.156 The same phenomenon holds to in other sports, soccer, swimming, 0:10:33.196 --> 0:10:36.116 you name it. You can find the relative age effect everywhere, 0:10:36.516 --> 0:10:40.636 and of course it also applies to the classroom. Teachers 0:10:40.956 --> 0:10:44.796 aren't any better than coaches at disentangling ability from maturity, 0:10:45.316 --> 0:10:48.756 so relatively older kids in elementary and middle school end 0:10:48.836 --> 0:10:51.956 up getting more encouragement they tend to get better grades, 0:10:52.396 --> 0:10:54.236 and they are more likely to be chosen for things 0:10:54.636 --> 0:10:59.876 like gifted and Talented programs. Meanwhile, relatively younger kids are 0:10:59.916 --> 0:11:03.116 more likely to be diagnosed with learning disorders or flagged 0:11:03.316 --> 0:11:07.156 for problem behavior. I cannot tell you how many parents 0:11:07.196 --> 0:11:08.916 have come up to me over the years and said, 0:11:09.316 --> 0:11:11.876 because I read your book Outliers, I held my kid 0:11:11.956 --> 0:11:14.716 back from starting school, and it was the best decision 0:11:14.716 --> 0:11:15.876 I ever made. 0:11:16.236 --> 0:11:17.036 Of course it was. 0:11:17.996 --> 0:11:21.876 But parents holding their kids back doesn't solve the problem. 0:11:22.116 --> 0:11:25.596 It just creates a relative age effect arms race. There's 0:11:25.636 --> 0:11:28.596 a fancy private school near me where so many parents 0:11:28.596 --> 0:11:31.596 of younger children have held their kids back that now 0:11:31.636 --> 0:11:35.596 the parents of the formerly eldest children have responded by 0:11:35.636 --> 0:11:39.196 holding their kids back, whereupon the first out of parents 0:11:39.236 --> 0:11:42.956 are increasingly holding their kids back a second time, meaning 0:11:43.356 --> 0:11:46.356 that there is at least a theoretical possibility that in 0:11:46.396 --> 0:11:50.156 the most competitive corners of American private education, some kids 0:11:50.636 --> 0:11:57.876 may never graduate from high school. Maybe I should have 0:11:57.916 --> 0:12:00.476 seen on that coming when I wrote Outliers. I should 0:12:00.516 --> 0:12:02.316 have made it clear that I was not trying to 0:12:02.316 --> 0:12:05.396 teach neurotic, upper middle class helicopter parents how to gain 0:12:05.436 --> 0:12:09.156 the system. I just wanted schools and sports leagues to 0:12:08.956 --> 0:12:15.036 stop behaving like idiots. So Barnsley's paper on relative age 0:12:15.036 --> 0:12:19.876 effect came out in nineteen eighty five Outliers, which was 0:12:19.916 --> 0:12:22.956 I think the first time Barnsley's work got wide publicity, 0:12:23.436 --> 0:12:26.996 was published in two thousand and eight. The world has 0:12:27.036 --> 0:12:30.236 been alerted for decades to the fact that all kinds 0:12:30.236 --> 0:12:35.916 of supposedly meritocratic systems have been hijacked. Has anything changed? 0:12:39.316 --> 0:12:42.236 You're in front of your computer. Oh, I put the 0:12:42.316 --> 0:12:46.476 question to Roger Barnsley, the og of relative age effect research. 0:12:46.796 --> 0:12:51.716 What have we learned? Can you google the roster of 0:12:51.836 --> 0:12:56.636 the Canadian junior hockey team national hockey team for twenty 0:12:56.676 --> 0:12:58.796 twenty one twenty two, the current roster. 0:12:59.356 --> 0:13:01.596 I'll do it right now, and. 0:13:01.556 --> 0:13:05.436 I want you to go down the list of the forwards. 0:13:05.636 --> 0:13:08.036 Just use the forwards for the sake of simplicity, And 0:13:08.116 --> 0:13:12.116 I want you to to just read the twenty one 0:13:14.076 --> 0:13:17.316 months of birth of the forwards on the current Canadian 0:13:17.436 --> 0:13:18.876 junior national hockey team. 0:13:19.716 --> 0:13:21.316 Their birthdates are just their names. 0:13:21.956 --> 0:13:25.436 I just want their birth months, okay, to see And 0:13:25.476 --> 0:13:29.356 then Barnsley repeated what his wife Paula did decades ago 0:13:29.556 --> 0:13:33.236 at the Lethbridge Broncos hockey game. He listed the birth 0:13:33.276 --> 0:13:36.116 months by number of the members of the national junior 0:13:36.116 --> 0:13:40.716 hockey team. Listen for birth months of seven or higher. 0:13:41.756 --> 0:13:49.356 Two ten, one, one, one, two eleven, eight, four two ten, five, four, five, 0:13:49.516 --> 0:13:54.436 two six one three one one five three two four 0:13:54.716 --> 0:13:55.276 seven to one. 0:13:55.876 --> 0:13:58.596 It's the same thing, the same thing. They've learned nothing. 0:13:58.996 --> 0:14:01.996 It's the same phenomenon. You saw, you saw it this 0:14:02.356 --> 0:14:10.036 forty years ago. The iron law of Canadian hockey is 0:14:10.116 --> 0:14:11.316 still an iron law. 0:14:12.356 --> 0:14:17.116 Isn't that funny? Funny at all? It's depressing, very depressing, 0:14:17.916 --> 0:14:18.676 very depressing. 0:14:18.956 --> 0:14:22.716 Here we are both Canadians, we are we are citizens 0:14:22.716 --> 0:14:26.356 of a country that cares more about hockey excellence than 0:14:26.596 --> 0:14:30.676 anything else, must be clear, anything else. And we are 0:14:30.796 --> 0:14:34.756 leaving an astonishing amount of talent on the table, exactly 0:14:35.076 --> 0:14:40.076 and refusing to learn. What of Canada's own prominent academics 0:14:40.196 --> 0:14:42.756 forty years ago said to the hockey establishment, what are 0:14:42.756 --> 0:14:45.676 you doing? Yeah, that's right, and they didn't. They haven't 0:14:45.716 --> 0:14:51.236 done anything. Canadian hockey hasn't done anything. But maybe revisionist 0:14:51.316 --> 0:15:06.476 history can the inspiration for the revisionist history Warton School 0:15:06.556 --> 0:15:09.916 relative age effect experiment came to me when I was 0:15:09.956 --> 0:15:15.436 talking to Adam Kelly, former footballer turned university professor. Kelly 0:15:15.516 --> 0:15:18.316 is a disciple of Roger Barnsley. He works with sports 0:15:18.396 --> 0:15:22.156 leagues to help them solve their age related problems, like 0:15:22.276 --> 0:15:26.596 England's basketball Federation, which spent a small fortune setting up 0:15:26.636 --> 0:15:29.196 regional centers to identify promising players. 0:15:30.036 --> 0:15:32.156 We looked at the proportion of players who were selected 0:15:32.156 --> 0:15:36.516 into those talent centers across at the nation, and that. 0:15:36.476 --> 0:15:36.916 Was at age. 0:15:36.916 --> 0:15:42.716 Groups selected from thirteen to fifteen, both at male and female, 0:15:43.596 --> 0:15:45.796 and those who were born in birth quarter one were 0:15:46.356 --> 0:15:49.516 ten times more likely to be selected ten times. 0:15:50.116 --> 0:15:53.196 Birth quarter one is the three months closest to the 0:15:53.236 --> 0:15:55.836 English basketball eligibility cutoff date. 0:15:57.116 --> 0:15:58.636 Which is absolutely crazy, isn't it? 0:15:59.756 --> 0:16:02.756 Same old story. The talent spotters thought they were picking 0:16:02.756 --> 0:16:05.356 the most promising players, but in fact they were just 0:16:05.396 --> 0:16:09.276 picking the oldest kids because the oldest kids were, of 0:16:09.316 --> 0:16:14.196 course the tallest and most coordinated. Anyway, Kelly's also thought 0:16:14.436 --> 0:16:15.516 a lot about education. 0:16:16.516 --> 0:16:19.436 Why is everyone taking their exam at exactly the same time. 0:16:20.196 --> 0:16:23.076 Surely we should all be taking it at that same 0:16:23.076 --> 0:16:27.556 time within our lifespan. So if you're born in August, 0:16:28.556 --> 0:16:32.836 you're taking your exam almost twelve months earlier than someone 0:16:32.836 --> 0:16:35.876 who's born in September. So that person's had twelve months 0:16:35.916 --> 0:16:36.756 more learning. 0:16:36.516 --> 0:16:39.916 Than you, which is super obvious when you think about it. 0:16:40.316 --> 0:16:43.436 In New York State, all the big elementary school math 0:16:43.516 --> 0:16:46.756 and English standardized tests are in late March early April. 0:16:47.036 --> 0:16:50.436 We're talking third graders, eight and nine year olds. At 0:16:50.436 --> 0:16:54.276 that age, kids get smarter every week. Yet we're trying 0:16:54.316 --> 0:16:56.636 to assess kids by their test scores, and some of 0:16:56.676 --> 0:16:59.076 the kids were judging have been around as much as 0:16:59.116 --> 0:17:03.116 a year longer than other kids. Why don't we have 0:17:03.236 --> 0:17:06.596 the January kids all take the test in January, and 0:17:06.676 --> 0:17:10.076 the February kids in February, and on and on down 0:17:10.076 --> 0:17:16.076 the line. I have no idea, honestly no idea. So 0:17:16.116 --> 0:17:19.556 I gathered the research arm of Revisionist History with our props, 0:17:19.916 --> 0:17:24.116 recording equipment, and extra microphones and headed for the Gothic, 0:17:24.356 --> 0:17:27.956 ivy covered Cathedral of Higher Learning that is the University 0:17:28.156 --> 0:17:31.636 of Pennsylvania to see if a group of really, really 0:17:31.676 --> 0:17:34.796 smart young people can figure out the importance of the 0:17:34.836 --> 0:17:40.116 month when they happen to be born turn all your 0:17:40.116 --> 0:17:43.236 pieces of favor. That's what your name of the toms, 0:17:43.836 --> 0:17:49.196 and once you're finished, we will collect them and then 0:17:49.636 --> 0:17:53.156 we will commence the exercise. So we give out our 0:17:53.196 --> 0:17:58.636 elaborate questionnaire, but secretly, all we're interested in is people's birthdays, 0:17:58.956 --> 0:18:01.916 and then Elouise and Harrison go through each questionnaire and 0:18:02.036 --> 0:18:06.036 use the birthdays to do a simple calculation. Technically, the 0:18:06.076 --> 0:18:08.556 youngest you could be as a college senior at the 0:18:08.556 --> 0:18:11.676 time of our EXPERIMID was to be born in September 0:18:11.916 --> 0:18:13.476 two thousand and one. 0:18:13.716 --> 0:18:14.516 So if you were. 0:18:14.436 --> 0:18:18.756 Born then you got a zero zero birth privilege. If 0:18:18.796 --> 0:18:21.996 you were one month older, born in August two thousand 0:18:22.036 --> 0:18:25.396 and one, you got a one. July two thousand and 0:18:25.396 --> 0:18:28.836 one you got a two, and so on. The higher 0:18:28.916 --> 0:18:32.316 the number on the sticker, the older the student wearing it. 0:18:33.196 --> 0:18:35.676 We even had a contingency for students who might have 0:18:35.716 --> 0:18:38.236 skipped a grade somewhere along the way. You get a 0:18:38.276 --> 0:18:41.676 negative number if you were younger than the expected age 0:18:41.676 --> 0:18:45.516 of a college senior. First thing we found out there 0:18:45.556 --> 0:18:48.476 were no negative numbers in the room. Back when I 0:18:48.516 --> 0:18:50.796 was in college, I knew dozens of people who had 0:18:50.796 --> 0:18:55.156 skipped grades. Apparently that doesn't happen much anymore. But it 0:18:55.196 --> 0:19:07.276 was worse than that. There's no zero. They were a one, two, twos, threes, fours, fives, 0:19:08.436 --> 0:19:13.716 anyone less than ten stand up. One student finally stood 0:19:13.796 --> 0:19:16.276 up in a back row, a college senior who was 0:19:16.316 --> 0:19:20.076 a few months shy of her twenty second birthday. Or 0:19:20.116 --> 0:19:22.796 you're ten, Oh, a ten in a back row. Oh, 0:19:22.836 --> 0:19:26.276 another ten emerges. We've got the twelve, We've got these twelves, 0:19:26.356 --> 0:19:29.236 We've got some tens. Take a look. This is bananas. 0:19:29.796 --> 0:19:32.596 This is as bad as the Canadian national junior hockey team. 0:19:32.956 --> 0:19:35.356 In our sample of students from one of the world's 0:19:35.356 --> 0:19:40.116 most selective universities, there were no young seniors, none, not 0:19:40.236 --> 0:19:43.676 even close. There was no one at all who had 0:19:43.676 --> 0:19:45.956 been born in two thousand and one, which is the 0:19:46.116 --> 0:19:48.276 year you would expect most seniors to be born in. 0:19:49.076 --> 0:19:52.116 At one point, a student started talking about her experience 0:19:52.236 --> 0:19:55.396 in a Gifted and talented program. So I asked for 0:19:55.436 --> 0:19:57.636 a show of hands. Do you mind me asking how 0:19:57.676 --> 0:19:59.996 many of you guys were were in gifted in town 0:20:00.076 --> 0:20:05.196 to programs? Wow? Basically all of you, which makes sense right. 0:20:05.956 --> 0:20:08.836 These were a group of relatively old students and being 0:20:08.876 --> 0:20:11.276 real to the older makes it more likely to get 0:20:11.316 --> 0:20:14.516 into a gifted and talented program, and getting into a 0:20:14.516 --> 0:20:17.236 gifted and talented program makes it more likely to get 0:20:17.236 --> 0:20:19.756 into a school like Penn, which is why a group 0:20:19.796 --> 0:20:23.316 of seniors that day at Wharton were all really old. 0:20:24.196 --> 0:20:30.316 What begins as arbitrary advantage hardens into privilege, a simple 0:20:30.396 --> 0:20:34.996 fact about their own success that our students still hadn't 0:20:34.996 --> 0:20:43.276 figured out. I'm going to hear another clue, guys, the 0:20:43.436 --> 0:20:48.116 particular dimension of privilege we're interested in measuring, I'm going 0:20:48.196 --> 0:20:51.876 to say, with a great deal of certainty, is in 0:20:51.916 --> 0:20:57.436 this room the most significant form of privilege or lack 0:20:57.476 --> 0:21:02.796 of it, that you would have experienced as students. At 0:21:02.796 --> 0:21:05.956 this point, I've pulled out all the stops trying to 0:21:05.996 --> 0:21:09.276 help them. I've had people with the highest numbers stand up. 0:21:09.396 --> 0:21:11.636 At one point, I made everyone with the number over 0:21:11.676 --> 0:21:14.556 twenty get up from their seats and line up against 0:21:14.596 --> 0:21:17.476 the wall. They were still guessing, but it was like 0:21:17.596 --> 0:21:19.676 they were throwing darts with a blindfold on. 0:21:20.636 --> 0:21:25.396 There were pretty clear demographic similarity at the top end 0:21:25.396 --> 0:21:31.476 of the spectrum. Racially was the most obvious in my eyes. Yeah, 0:21:32.396 --> 0:21:34.876 but also just in general that there were very few 0:21:34.916 --> 0:21:37.636 at the low end of the spectrum was also noteworthy. 0:21:37.676 --> 0:21:40.956 How do you feel about being in the higher number 0:21:41.076 --> 0:21:42.836 group as opposed to the lower number group. 0:21:46.076 --> 0:21:48.196 I mean, it's just a fact, like it is. 0:21:48.636 --> 0:21:48.996 It's an I. 0:21:50.916 --> 0:21:53.196 Would say, I'm coming into it. I I'm aware of 0:21:53.196 --> 0:21:58.076 my privilege as a white woman, but I think it's 0:21:58.076 --> 0:21:59.756 about what you do with that privilege that's important. 0:22:01.876 --> 0:22:05.116 And then, after forty minutes of floundering in the shallow 0:22:05.236 --> 0:22:08.556 end of the revisionist history research pool, a group of 0:22:08.556 --> 0:22:12.396 students in the front row put their heads together and 0:22:12.436 --> 0:22:16.556 then raise their hands. 0:22:16.916 --> 0:22:18.476 We have a hypothesis. 0:22:18.796 --> 0:22:22.596 That's Adam. Everyone in this front row group had the 0:22:22.716 --> 0:22:26.636 highest privileged score. We handed out twenty four plus. Of 0:22:26.756 --> 0:22:29.316 course they figured it out first. They were the oldest 0:22:29.316 --> 0:22:32.756 students in the class. Next to Adam was Joseph. He 0:22:32.876 --> 0:22:34.796 was wearing a suit and a tie. 0:22:35.116 --> 0:22:35.356 Yeah. 0:22:35.836 --> 0:22:36.916 Yeah, we have a hypothesis. 0:22:36.956 --> 0:22:37.796 So the twenty four. 0:22:37.636 --> 0:22:40.156 Plus is that a significant factor? 0:22:40.196 --> 0:22:40.476 Here? 0:22:41.316 --> 0:22:41.836 Is age? 0:22:41.956 --> 0:22:42.996 Our absolute age? 0:22:43.716 --> 0:22:44.996 Like how old are you those? 0:22:45.076 --> 0:22:48.596 We're all a bunch of old seniors over here, older 0:22:48.636 --> 0:22:49.796 than usual. 0:22:50.396 --> 0:22:57.316 Eureka. Phase one of the experiment was over now phase 0:22:57.356 --> 0:23:00.876 two because I intended to ask them if they wanted 0:23:00.876 --> 0:23:15.676 to do something about their arbitrary privilege. In Australia, they've 0:23:15.716 --> 0:23:22.716 invented something called maturity based Corrective Adjustment Procedures MACCAPS, as 0:23:22.756 --> 0:23:26.036 it's known for provisional use in the sport of swimming. 0:23:27.836 --> 0:23:31.636 I will confess that I am madly in love with 0:23:31.676 --> 0:23:34.556 this idea. It turns out that if you take a 0:23:34.596 --> 0:23:37.876 bunch of measurements of kids and plug them into an equation, 0:23:38.476 --> 0:23:42.836 you can estimate their physical maturity quite accurately. So you 0:23:42.916 --> 0:23:45.996 don't have to rely on chronological age to assess someone's 0:23:46.076 --> 0:23:49.716 level of development. You can do one better and measure 0:23:49.996 --> 0:23:51.516 maturity directly. 0:23:52.236 --> 0:23:55.276 So what these equations do is they fight are in 0:23:55.276 --> 0:24:00.556 indices like height, weight, chronological age and sitting height, and 0:24:00.596 --> 0:24:03.956 they use those fighters to then estimate how far away 0:24:04.556 --> 0:24:08.676 a particular individual is from that point of peak growth. 0:24:09.436 --> 0:24:12.876 That's Stephen Cobley, a professor at the University of Sydney 0:24:13.076 --> 0:24:17.076 who created matcaps along with his colleague Minkel Roman. Here's 0:24:17.116 --> 0:24:19.996 how it works. Imagine we have two fourteen year old 0:24:19.996 --> 0:24:23.916 swimmers competing in a hundred meter freestyle, both with the 0:24:23.956 --> 0:24:28.316 exact same birthday, Joey and Tim. So these academics would 0:24:28.356 --> 0:24:32.956 first calculate the biological maturity status of each swimmer, that is, 0:24:33.196 --> 0:24:36.356 how far each one is from their estimated point of 0:24:36.396 --> 0:24:40.756 peak performance. So let's say, for example, Joey is actually 0:24:40.796 --> 0:24:45.356 twelve months less biologically mature than Tim at this exact moment. 0:24:46.236 --> 0:24:50.116 Then comes the cool part. Cobbley then looks at thousands 0:24:50.116 --> 0:24:52.316 of data points for fourteen year old swimming in a 0:24:52.396 --> 0:24:56.036 hundred meter freestyle and calculates what is twelve months of 0:24:56.116 --> 0:24:59.516 maturity worth on average in terms of swimming time for 0:24:59.636 --> 0:25:03.036