1 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday morning 2 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 1: episode of the Deal Juice Podcast with me Matt Perelt 3 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Maatt to follow me across all socials. 4 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: This podcast being brought to you by Omaha Steaks dot 5 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: Com and the Customize You orl Omaha Steaks dot Com 6 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: slash Juice subscriptions available right now. If you go and 7 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: get a subscription Oma Steaks dot Com slash Juice, they're 8 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: gonna give you free burgers for life and ten percent 9 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: off everything you buy at Omaha Steaks dot Com on 10 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: money back Gearontee at Olmos Steaks dot Com slash Juice. Officially, 11 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: we are in a cold spell, cold streak, cold time. 12 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: Not unusual. These things happen, and you know it's always frustrating. 13 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: One and two last night. So we've had a losing month, 14 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: We've had a losing week. It's not been good. We're 15 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: down but five units now a little over five units 16 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: for the month, which is not great. February is difficult. 17 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: This happens a lot because the numbers are super sharp. Okay, 18 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: look at the George Mason game last night. Okay, up 19 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,960 Speaker 1: by fourteen points in the second half. We're on our 20 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: way to a two and one night. You know, we 21 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: got Syracuse, that was easy. Syracuse wins covers Bam. We 22 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: got that. But the two road favorites we bet George 23 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: Mason gives up a three at the buzzer or another, 24 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: but with four seconds left they blow a fourteen point lead. 25 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 1: They lose the game outright on a three on an 26 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: inbounds play. That was ridiculous. I don't know what thing 27 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 1: they fell asleep. Fordham comes all the way back and 28 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: whins that game. Look, that's just how things are going 29 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: right now for me, unfortunately. Just you know, melts are happening, 30 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: and you know, losing day and losing Dave. If you 31 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: faded me yesterday you won, you should fade me today. Okay, 32 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,040 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sit here and tell you that I 33 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: I'm hot. I got three bets. My job is to 34 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: tell you what I am betting, and my job is 35 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: to come in here and tell you guys what I 36 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 1: do every day. And you could pick, fade, follow do 37 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: whatever you want with it. But that's a really important 38 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind and remember it with all this. Okay, 39 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: this happened on the Discord channel yesterday and I hate 40 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 1: to bring one or two p persons, and I want 41 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: your people to the podcast because this podcast is listened 42 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: to by thousands and watched by thousands of people every day. 43 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: So when I highlight one or two people, it's a 44 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: little bit of, you know, allowing someone to have a 45 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: bigger platform than I probably should. But I think it's 46 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: important in case other people do actually still are believing this. 47 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: My integrity is something that is unquestioned right now to me, 48 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: and I want to keep it that way. Right you 49 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,959 Speaker 1: can say whatever you want about me, but you can't 50 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: prove anything because I don't allow it to happen. What 51 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: I mean by that is you could walk around with me, 52 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: have a camera on me, and I don't care what 53 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: you see because I don't hide anything. I don't hide 54 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: anything what I do. I'm a forty six year old father. Okay, 55 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: anything that my daughter would look at and be disappointed 56 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: on or with with me, I don't ever want to 57 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: have that conversation. So I try very hard to be 58 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: as transparent and open and honest with you guys as 59 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: I can be. I get paid to do this podcast. 60 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: Betting Pros pays me. That's it. I'm not paid by 61 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: a book. I'm not paid by a sponsor. I'm not 62 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: here to trick you. I'm not here to tell you 63 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: something that's going to hurt your bet, your bankroll, or 64 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: your bottom line. I'm not here to do any of that. 65 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: So you can take all the conspiracy theory nonsense about 66 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: what you think I'm doing or what you think is happening, 67 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: and you can throw it out the window because it's 68 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: not happening. Okay, sports betting is not easy. If it is, 69 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: you wouldn't be here. Seriously, if sports betting was so simple, 70 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: you wouldn't come to listen to this podcast every day 71 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: because you would be on a beach somewhere in Bora Bora. 72 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 1: You'd be having the time of your life. But the 73 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 1: reason why there's betting content is because we as gamblers 74 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: are always curious as to what somebody else is betting, 75 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: and if somebody else is hot, how do I bet it? 76 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 1: If they're cold, I want to fade it. That's perfectly normal. 77 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: There's nothing wrong with any of that. Where it crosses 78 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: the line is when you start to tell people or 79 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: make accusations towards me as to what I do and 80 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: how I do it. Look, I'm not perfect. I'm not Jesus. 81 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: I'm not someone who's going to sit here and tell 82 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,039 Speaker 1: you that I never wrong anybody, or I never do 83 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 1: anything that's wrong. Okay, but I try really hard not 84 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: to lie to people. I try really hard not to 85 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: do anything to anyone that I would think that is nefarious, 86 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: that is some type of scheme. I'm just blunt. I'm 87 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 1: brutally honest, and it scares the hell out of a 88 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: lot of people that I'm brutally honest. I sit here 89 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 1: and tell you my record. I sit here and tell 90 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 1: you that I've lost. I sit here and tell you 91 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: what my record is for the month. It scares a 92 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: lot of people because there's a lot of charlatan's and 93 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: liars in this business that will tell you that they 94 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: win every day, that they want to take your money, 95 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: they want tips, they want you to buy picks, all 96 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: the garbage that's out there. And so to me, it's 97 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 1: about the community. It's about us as a unit as 98 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: daily juice people that we've been together now for over 99 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: three years. That's really important to me. The community is 100 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: really important to me. The group of people we have listening, 101 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,479 Speaker 1: watching talking brick bets, it's really important to me. It's 102 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: always been the most important thing to me. It's what 103 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: got me to do this podcast was to start it 104 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: with a bunch of people. Dan Harris, when he was 105 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: with Betting Pros, had the idea said, look, I think 106 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: you could be a pied piper of sorts to come 107 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: in and talk to people about betting, make picks, make plays, 108 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: talk about bets. What you're doing three hundred and six 109 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,159 Speaker 1: five days a year, three hundred and sixty five days 110 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: a year. I sit here and I tell you guys 111 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 1: what I am betting. When I'm winning. No one's accusing 112 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: me of working for a book, no one's accusing me 113 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: of doing anything like. It's all He's on our side. 114 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: When I lose all of a sudden, people just can't 115 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 1: take responsibility for it. You don't have to fade me 116 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: or follow me. You don't have to listen to this podcast. 117 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: It's a free podcast. I love every one of you 118 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: who does I love every one of you who's around this, 119 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: who wants to be a part of this community, who 120 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: wants to be in this. But there are some people 121 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 1: that simply want to watch the world burn, and they 122 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: go into the Discord channel and they start chaos. And 123 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: I appreciate all the people on the Discord channel who 124 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: have my back, who say, hey, I've been here for 125 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: a long time. I've seen them up, I've seen them down. 126 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: This is the roller coaster ride. We're trying to go 127 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: fifty two percent. Sometimes it's really fun. Sometimes it sucks. 128 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: Right now, it sucks, But I'm losing money. You don't 129 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: have to bet what I bet. At the end of 130 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: the day, you bet what you want to bet. I'm 131 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: telling you what I am betting. Do I like losing money? No? 132 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: I do not. No, I do not. But here's the 133 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: thing you have to remember when you go and search 134 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: on Apple, Go search sports betting on Apple podcasts. Go 135 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: tell me what's the first podcast that pops up of 136 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: all the sports betting podcasts, Go tell me what podcast 137 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: pops up. This podcast has been very successful. I'm compensated 138 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: well to do this podcast. Okay, you wonder who I 139 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: work for. I work for Betting Pros. That's who I 140 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: work for. That's who pays me to do this podcast. 141 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: So if you're wondering, how does he do this? How 142 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: does he bet and lose? How does he lose five 143 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 1: units in a month and how does he keep coming back? 144 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: I'm always in the black, Guys, always remember that I'm 145 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: always in the black. Otherwise I wouldn't do this podcast. Okay, 146 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: I got a kid. I got a nine year old. 147 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: She's expensive, she wants lots of things, play lots of sports, 148 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: she wants to go lots of places. Okay, So hopefully 149 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 1: that's going to put that to rest. All right. If 150 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: you ever need, you ever read, if you're ever wondering, 151 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: bookmark this podcast and come back and listen to that 152 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: last little nine minute rant that I went on about 153 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: what I am, who I am, and what I do 154 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: because nothing makes me more or angry than when someone 155 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: tries to question my integrity. It's all I've got. It's 156 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: really all I got. My daughter, my career, my family, 157 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: and my integrity being able to look myself in the 158 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: mirror and know who I am. I don't care people 159 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: say about me. People have written and said all sorts 160 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:20,719 Speaker 1: of things about me all the time, and that will 161 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: still happen because when you tell the truth, it scares 162 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: people a lot of times, and people would love to 163 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: see me go down. And I know that. So what 164 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: do you do? Well, it's a lot easier when you 165 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 1: don't remember the lie. When it's the truth, you don't 166 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: have to remember anything. I don't get to remember a 167 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: single thing that I tell people because I tell them 168 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: the truth. It is what it is. Deal with it 169 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 1: as you may. And sometimes the truth sucks, and the 170 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: truth is right now, I'm ice cold, and that's the 171 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 1: damn truth, and I'm losing money. Yes, hopefully it changes. 172 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,680 Speaker 1: I don't know if it will, but I hope that 173 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 1: it will. I have two bets in college basketball. I 174 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: have one bet in the NBA to get into, and 175 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: you are completely comfortable free to fade me on each 176 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: of them. Let's start in the NBA, because there is 177 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: a trend going on in the NBA that is just well, 178 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 1: there's a lot of people who are gonna who are 179 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: gonna follow this trend, and I'm a trend better. Some 180 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: people don't like betting trends. I actually do like betting trends. 181 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: That's just me personally. The NBA is currently on a 182 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: ridiculous understreak. NBA unders went ten and one on Tuesday Night. 183 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: NBA unders are now thirty eight twelve and one. That 184 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: is a seventy six percent clip since the All Star Break. 185 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: If you've been betting overs in the NBA, you've been 186 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 1: getting your teeth kicked in, and I mean like kicked 187 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: in to the point of twenty four percent games going 188 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: over right now in the NBA. Why is that? Well, 189 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 1: there's a whole lot of theories. Front page story of 190 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: ESPN dot com yesterday said, does the NBA have a 191 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: scoring problem? This is the highest scoring per game on 192 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 1: average in NBA history since nineteen sixty nine, nineteen seventy. 193 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: We've seen Luca go for seventy nearly We've watched seventy points. 194 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: You know, you had seventy. Luca go for seventy. We've 195 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: seen MB go for seventy. We've seen players go for sixteen, 196 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: players go for fifty. Like it's all a common occurrence 197 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: now to see how see points from one player in 198 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 1: the seriously like, oh my god, range, Like what are we? 199 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 1: What's what's going on? Right? So Sacramento's at Denver tonight 200 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: total is two twenty eight and a half. The Denver 201 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: Nuggets are thirty six and twenty two to the under 202 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: on the year. The Sacramento Kings are twenty nine, twenty 203 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 1: five and three to the over. Except to the Western Conference. 204 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: They're nineteen sixteen and two to the under. Denver is 205 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: twenty three and twelve against the Western Conference to the under. 206 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 1: Denver is sixteen and eleven to the under at home. 207 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 1: Sacramento is eighteen eleven and two to the under on 208 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: the road. These two teams just played in Denver. Game 209 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: was played back on the fourteenth of February. That total 210 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: was two twenty nine. That game went under by twenty 211 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: nine points. Now two of the last three games for 212 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: Denver have gone over, including the last home game for 213 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: Denver in which it was two thirty three against Washington. 214 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: Game went over by seven points, but that's Washington. Denver 215 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: scored one hundred and thirty points against them. In the 216 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: home game before that, that was against Sacramento against Portland, 217 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: it was two twenty and a half. It went under 218 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: by five and a half. They played back to back 219 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: home games there. That was the second game went under. 220 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: The first game went over to twenty went over by 221 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: eight against Milwaukee back on the twenty ninth of January 222 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: at home for Denver to thirty seven and a half, 223 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: went under by seventeen and a half points against Philadelphia 224 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: at home to twenty five and a half went under 225 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 1: by nine and a half points. So far here in 226 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: the year twenty twenty four, the Denver Nuggets, well, not 227 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: the whole year, but if you go back to the 228 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: nineteenth of January, Denver has gone over only four times 229 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 1: all year from that mark on to now. So over 230 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: the last month five weeks they've gone over only five times, 231 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, four times. Rather at home against Portland on 232 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 1: the road against Sacramento. These are the Kings over there playing, 233 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 1: but that game was at Sacramento Homes Washington on the 234 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: road against Portland. Last time on the road against Golden 235 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: State to thirty two and a half game went under 236 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: by ten and a half points on the road. On 237 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: the other side, for Sacramento, they've equally been a team 238 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: that's been on the road in under machine Clippers two 239 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: thirty nine on the road under by nine, Denver two 240 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 1: twenty nine, under by twenty nine. Like you mentioned, did 241 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 1: go over against the Phoenix Suns at two forty five, 242 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: went over by ten. They pushed against Oklahoma City and 243 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: then back against Cleveland Chicago back in the beginning of 244 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: the month. They went on a stretch where the first 245 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: three first the first game of the road trip went 246 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 1: over against Golden State. The next three Dallas, Memphis, Miami 247 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 1: went under, and then Indiana, Chicago, Cleveland went over. So 248 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: it was four and three on that seven game road 249 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: trip that they went on. But the last game against 250 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: the Clippers, last game against Denver, both those games have 251 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 1: gone under. Let's ride the trend here. Let's ride the 252 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: fact these teams just played each other, and maybe we're 253 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: not gonna see an offensive explosion here out of the 254 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: Nuggets because they're at home, they tend to lockdown defensively. Yes, 255 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: Sacramento over their last ten games seven too and one 256 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: to the over. That's true, But on the road they've 257 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: been a much different team over the last ten. For Denver, 258 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: they're six and four to the under, under two twenty 259 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: eight and a half for one point one units Sacramento 260 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: and Denver. Let's jump on that trend here. With a 261 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: crazy number in the NBA seventy six percent of the time, 262 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 1: thirty eight, twelve and one. If you want an extra 263 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: NBA play, I do think the Clippers are going to 264 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 1: win and cover against the Lakers. The number you can 265 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: find the number somewhere around you know, three, three and 266 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 1: a half. As to where that game goes off. It's 267 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: a national televise game. Lebron James, will he play? Probably not. 268 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: Lakers won the first two games this year one thirty 269 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: one to twenty five and overtime in one O six, 270 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: one oh three. They were the quote home team, and 271 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 1: then the Clippers won one twenty seven, one sixteen when 272 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: they were the home team. Clippers are the home team 273 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: here tonight. You may get three, you might get three 274 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: and a half, but I like the Clippers to win 275 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 1: and cover. If you like some extra NBA play, but 276 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: not official, I'm going under two twenty eight and a 277 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: half for Denver and Sacramento. All right, college basketball we go. 278 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: Let's talk a bit about Saint John's at Butler. Boy, 279 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: does the Butler Bulldogs need a victory? We talked about this. 280 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: This is the transient properties of college basketball. Okay, right, So, 281 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: Yukon kills Marquette. Yukon goes to Creighton and gets killed. 282 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: Creighton goes to Saint John's and gets killed. Saint John's 283 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: now on the road against Butler. They're desperate. The number 284 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: is one. They have lost four games in a row. 285 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: They've lost five out of six, and their NCAA tournament 286 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: hopes are hanging on by an absolute thread for the 287 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: Butler Bulldogs. Saint John's massive letdown spot huge win over 288 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: the Creighton Blue Jays. They win by fourteen points. Last 289 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 1: time out on the road against Georgetown, they were laying ten. 290 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: They won by five. Against Providence they were catching two. 291 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: They lost by three against Marquette they were catching seven 292 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: and a half. They lost by eleven against Xavier they 293 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,719 Speaker 1: were catching two and they lost by eleven. Against Seaton 294 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 1: Hall they were laying one and they lost by fifteen. 295 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: They covered against the Creighton Blue Jays back when they 296 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: played him on the thirteenth of January, but way back 297 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 1: on the second of January to start the Big East 298 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 1: No second, no third game, the biggest schedule. They played 299 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: Yukon first on the road, as Saint John's did, catching eleven. 300 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: They lost by four. They played Butler, then they played Yeah. 301 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 1: Then they played Butler laying six and a half at 302 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: home and they won by sixteen. On the road, they 303 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: caught three and a half. Against Villanova, they won by ten. 304 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 1: But recently on the road Saint John's has not been good. 305 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 1: They're five and nine overall ats on the road now. 306 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: Butler is only five and nine ats at home. They're 307 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: five and twelve. In the Big East. They're zero and 308 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: five over their last five. But Saint John's is one 309 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 1: in four over the last five and the only win, 310 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: the only cover was when they beat the Cryton Blue Jays. 311 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: Not the only win, but the only cover against the 312 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: number was against Creyton Blue Jays. Saint John's is three 313 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,880 Speaker 1: and seven ATS over the last ten. Butler's not much better. 314 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: They're four and six, but their backcher against the wall. 315 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: They lost back to back road games. This factors into 316 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,399 Speaker 1: my road game trend that lose a road game, they 317 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: come back home, they're small favorites, they're laying one. This 318 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,880 Speaker 1: again just goes back to this crazy when a team 319 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 1: has a huge win, go and fade them because they 320 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: tend to lose the game on a crazy basis this 321 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: season in college basketball again, I'm a trend and better 322 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 1: we're gonna fall right into this trend. Butler minus one 323 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: for one point one units. According to kempom, they have 324 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 1: this as a one point win for Butler seventy seven 325 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: to seventy six. The numbers one. It's right there. This 326 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 1: is of the year here for Butler. They've got one 327 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: home game after this left against Xavier. They got to 328 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: win out they went out, there'll be ten and ten 329 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,400 Speaker 1: in the Big East, and that might be good enough. 330 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 1: They might get in that large bid if then go 331 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: ten and ten. If they went out, they would be 332 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: nineteen and twelve. Nineteen and twelve and ten and ten 333 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: in conference. Gives you an opportunity to potentially be alive. 334 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: You might have a chance there. Probably not, but maybe so. 335 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 1: Thad modest team at home here, monster game in the 336 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 1: Big East for them. I'm taking Butler minus one at 337 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: home for one point one units. By the way, I'm 338 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: not betting road favorites anymore for the rest of the year. Now. 339 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: I know it's only about two weekends, right, I mean, 340 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: it's not a lot lot left really one weekend. But 341 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: I'm not betting from now until March seventh, when the 342 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 1: regular season's over. I'm not betting. I am not. I 343 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: guess it's later that it's like March tenth, but I'm 344 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 1: not betting road favorites anymore. Okay, for the rest of 345 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,640 Speaker 1: the year. Road favorites lying through it, not doing it, okay. 346 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 1: Butler minus one third bet in final bet late night game. 347 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: This is gonna be fun. I'm looking forward to this. 348 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to seeing what's gonna happen. I'm looking 349 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 1: forward to watching Arizona at Arizona State numbers twelve and 350 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: a half. This is a big number. This is a 351 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: big number. Arizona has not been good this year when 352 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 1: they have been big favorites. I mean, we have faded 353 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: Arizona this year at times when they are monster favorites. 354 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: Twelve and a half points is a lot. Seven and 355 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: five Arizona on the road so far this year, Arizona 356 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 1: State's eight and six ats at home, Arizona State lost 357 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: by forty five points at Arizona. I mean you want 358 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: to talk about a by low spot. Yeah, we're buying 359 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: low on, buying low on Butler Seal on High in 360 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 1: Saint John's. It's a very similar situation here. That game 361 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,120 Speaker 1: was at home. Three game homes Stanver, Arizona. They beat 362 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 1: Arizona State by forty five. They lost to Washington State 363 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 1: by three. They came back and beat Washington by sixteen. 364 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 1: I love rivalry games, especially when you have a chance 365 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 1: to play in your building. Arizona State has been hot 366 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: except for the loss by forty five. It's the only 367 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 1: time they failed to cover over the last six games. 368 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 1: They lost by forty five points to their arch rival. 369 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 1: They were nineteen point dogs. They lost by forty five. 370 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,159 Speaker 1: Colorado lost by twelve at on the road as fifteen 371 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: and a half point dogs. Utah twelve and a half 372 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 1: point dogs, one by eight outrights against Oregon State, laying 373 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: six and a half the one by eighteen. Then the 374 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 1: Arizona debacle. Then they took on Washington at home, catching 375 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: two and a half, lost by two. They covered against 376 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 1: Washington State, they caught five and they won by twelve. 377 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:05,919 Speaker 1: That's a Washington State team that everybody was jumping up 378 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: and down about after they beat Arizona. They're like, oh 379 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: my gosh, here they go. Look at Washington State. They 380 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: could maybe maybe potentially win the division or so win 381 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: the conference rather and they lost the game out right 382 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 1: on the road at Arizona State. This game's late if 383 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: you're on the East Coast, but I think it might 384 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: be worth staying up to watch it because I think 385 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: it's gonna be an absolute ball of a game. Kempum 386 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: does have this as a thirteen point win for Arizona, 387 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: So if you want to lay the twelve and a half. 388 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 1: You want to fade me and lay the twelve and 389 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: a half, go right ahead, But I'm gonna take again 390 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: in a bilo spot for a team at home don't 391 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: need to win the game. Just twelve and a half 392 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,360 Speaker 1: points is a lot in college basketball, in particular when 393 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: you're talking about games like this, where a thirteen and 394 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: fifteen Arizona State team, ats wise, is in desperate need 395 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: of showing that they can play in the nit. Take 396 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 1: a scalp, take their arrival. They're fourteen and fourteen on 397 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: the year, but they're ten and four straight up at home. 398 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: They play really well at home. Arizona is seven and 399 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,680 Speaker 1: five on the road. Winning on the road in college 400 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: basketball is always tough. Arizona State plus twelve and a 401 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:23,360 Speaker 1: half in Tempe up against Arizona for one point one units. 402 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,879 Speaker 1: All right, Phil, free to fade away. Not gonna insult 403 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,199 Speaker 1: me at all given where we are. But look, if 404 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: we go three and o today, which I've done recently, 405 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: we go three and oh, we could potentially knock down 406 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: all three of those bets will be actually up for 407 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: the week. So I don't like the feaster VAM and stuff. 408 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: But right now. It's the lean times going on. Hopefully 409 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: we have a lot of college basketball left to bet. 410 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 1: The beauty of this is college basketball still has been 411 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: my best sport, and there's a lot of college basketball 412 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: to come. We have futures. I may add one or 413 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 1: two futures at some points. I mean, it's crazy right now, 414 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: but the market is so wide open for the national championship. 415 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: There are so many teams that you could look to 416 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,639 Speaker 1: bet on, and I might add to the portfolio simply 417 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 1: because there's some really good prices out there in college basketball. 418 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 1: So there might be like if I go oh and 419 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 1: three today, get ready for a Future's podcast, Like I'm 420 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,439 Speaker 1: gonna take the day off from betting. I'm just going 421 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,679 Speaker 1: to bet futures and add more add to my portfolio 422 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 1: for Thursday and look towards the weekend. So just a 423 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: heads up. If I go oh in three, I'm gonna 424 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 1: take a day off because I need the chance to 425 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,199 Speaker 1: just like lick my wounds to see where we're going 426 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 1: to go. We'll bet futures on Thursday. If I get 427 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,119 Speaker 1: whacked today and go oh and three, but hopefully it's not. 428 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: Hopefully we go three and now under two twenty eight 429 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: and a half for Denver and Sacramento Butler minus one, 430 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: Arizona State plus twelve and a half the plays for 431 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: US on a Wednesday, minus Matt Parol fuming across all 432 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 1: socials at sports dooc Matt every morning Dali Jus podcast 433 00:24:56,320 --> 00:25:10,719 Speaker 1: always being brought to you by almas Sakes dot com