1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis 3 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:16,119 Speaker 2: along with Doug Krisner. Join us each day for the 4 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 5 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 2: You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your 6 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 2: podcasts and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and 7 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 3: Israel has confirmed the beginning of a targeted ground invasion 9 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 3: or at least raids, maybe that is more accurate in Lebanon. 10 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 3: The Israeli Defense for saying that its troops have begun limited, 11 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 3: localized and targeted raids against HESBLAT targets in the border 12 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 3: area of southern Lebanon. Let's bring in for a closer look. 13 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Derek Wildbank is our Breaking News Managing editor. He 14 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 3: is on the line from the Lion City of Singapore. Derek, 15 00:00:55,880 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 3: this is kind of interesting because this ground raid action 16 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 3: was pretty real, well telegraphed by the Israeli government, was 17 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 3: it not? 18 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 4: Yeah, it was, and it you know, it's come as 19 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 4: there's been some question about whether or not Israel is 20 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 4: going to move in with a full scale ground invasion. 21 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 4: This is sort of short of that, right, the Israeli 22 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 4: government going and taking some pains to say that this 23 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 4: is targeted, that this is acting on specific intelligence. It 24 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 4: comes after Israel successfully killed Hesbelah leader Hassan Esrala on Friday, 25 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 4: and so there has been some I think progress that 26 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 4: Israel has made that it that it feels for lack 27 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 4: of a better word, that it feels good about that 28 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 4: it feels like it's finding success against Hesbelan ways that 29 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 4: it has been unable to in recent years. Israel has 30 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 4: set a target of saying that it wants Hesbila to 31 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 4: not be able to launch rockets into northern Israel as 32 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 4: a sort of condition. As Belah's new leader saying that 33 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 4: they are prepared to continue fighting. 34 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 2: Is Israel Derek using this series of actions to actually 35 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 2: crush has Belah and and and possibly Hamas afterwards. I mean, 36 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 2: it may not have been something they thought about a 37 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 2: year ago, but the message seems to be that they are, 38 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 2: you know, pushing forward hard. 39 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 4: Those have been the conditions or something like that that 40 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 4: that Israel has set out as a condition of success. 41 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 2: Right. 42 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 4: I think it's very important when you're talking about armed 43 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 4: conflicts be it between two states or between a state 44 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 4: and a major actor, as this one is to really 45 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 4: pay attention to what the leaders are openly saying are 46 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: there are their conditions here, And in both the cases 47 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 4: of Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel has said that it wants 48 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 4: to essentially change the status quote, does not want to 49 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 4: have an effective, built up position that is capable of 50 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 4: the sort of attacks that they've been able to do. 51 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 5: Now. 52 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 4: The counter to that, and I think that one of 53 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 4: the things that the United States and other friends of 54 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 4: Israel have been trying to make the case about is 55 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 4: that if you go and prosecute those conflicts and actions 56 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 4: to a certain degree, it will not just accomplish whatever 57 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 4: you think that it's going to accomplish right now in 58 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 4: terms of the present enemy, but it will also build 59 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 4: a new enemy by people who are so mad about 60 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 4: what you have just gone and done, and thus the 61 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 4: cycle begins again. And so I think that is one 62 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 4: of the present risks that the United States has been 63 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 4: trying to warn Israel about. Remember after October seven, Joe 64 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 4: Biden famously Warren Benjamin net Nyahu about Hamas that of 65 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 4: the US experience in Afghanistan, right, you know, if you 66 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 4: sort of go after in a way that you start 67 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 4: with target, but then you expand beyond, sometimes you can 68 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 4: expand it and cause yourself more problems than you had 69 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 4: wanted to go. And so the US has tried to 70 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 4: play a sort of restraining factor here. You did in 71 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 4: the pre role of this, you know, flagged audio of 72 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 4: the US saying something as much that this action, this 73 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 4: latest action against Hasbala to the north, has been less 74 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 4: than what than what maybe Israel had originally signposted it 75 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 4: wanted to do. We'll see sort of if that is 76 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 4: where this ends, or if this is an intermediate step 77 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 4: towards something more to that point. 78 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 3: I mean, have we heard anything from Hesbelah about to retaliation. 79 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 3: Have they made a statement. 80 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 4: Well, their comment so far that we have is that 81 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 4: they are able and willing to continue to fight on 82 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 4: the ground. So that's sort of where that is. But 83 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 4: you know, as I say, it's a very fluid situation. 84 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 4: So let's see where. Let's see where this goes, if 85 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 4: this is one step or if this is what is 86 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 4: going to happen, and then let's see what what Hesbela's 87 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 4: reaction is going to be. Certainly recent attacks by Israel 88 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 4: recent operations by Israel have severely cut into Hesbelah's abilities. 89 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 2: The oh yeah, and doesn't that doesn't that mean that, 90 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 2: you know, the ultimate boogeyman is Iran and the Iranian 91 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 2: leaders Now if they can get us on USRALA, they 92 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 2: can get us well. 93 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 4: And the question that you do have to ask if 94 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 4: you continue down that road a little bit, is how 95 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 4: do you stop this from being an all out fight 96 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 4: between Israel and Iran? Right that that sort of conflagration 97 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 4: is the thing that I think that the US and 98 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 4: others are really concerned about, is that is that whatever 99 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 4: this is, that it not become that. 100 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 6: So we're very close thing. 101 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, we're close to a critical state. I mean, 102 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 3: even if perhaps we're there already. Derek, thank you so much. 103 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 3: Derek Walldbank, Bloomberg Breaking News Managing Editor, joining from Singapore 104 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 3: here on a breakas. 105 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 2: Christina Hooper, a chief global market strategist at Invesco, to 106 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 2: join us on the program. Christina, thank you for joining us. 107 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 2: Palace comments ruffling a few feathers there. I suppose some 108 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 2: people might be thinking that the difference between fifty and 109 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 2: seventy five basis points is not all that great and 110 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 2: it might also be that, you know, you don't don't 111 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 2: want to really overthink things. The Fed is cutting and 112 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 2: growth is fairly solid. How did you see his comments? 113 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 5: I think they were very appropriate because markets were getting 114 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 5: a little too excited that easing would unfold very, very rapidly. 115 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 5: And J. Powell certainly wants markets to be positive, but 116 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 5: he doesn't want just an overreaction, and he wants something 117 00:06:55,400 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 5: that's gradual. He wants something that is not overly effusive. 118 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 5: And so I think it makes sense that he talked 119 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 5: down market fervor. But again, the Fed is headed in 120 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 5: the right direction and we're looking at on a very 121 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 5: significant easing cycle. 122 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 3: If we go I'm sorry ahead, please, you know you're 123 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 3: making a very interesting point, which is we know what 124 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 3: the path is. It's kind of what Brian kind of 125 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 3: laid out as the foundation. We know that rates are 126 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 3: going lower, we know that the American economy is holding 127 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 3: up reasonably well, inflation is coming down. So maybe what 128 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 3: the Chair was doing today was addressing the financial conditions 129 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 3: that he would be concerned become overly loose at a 130 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 3: time when they really need to make sure that inflation 131 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 3: is no longer the problem that it once was. 132 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 5: I think that's exactly right. While inflation is now in 133 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 5: the rearview mirror, and I think the FED is fairly 134 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 5: comfortable with where the US economy is going. Let's face it, 135 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 5: he doesn't want an overreaction on either end, and so 136 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 5: I think he needs to keep markets in check. But 137 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 5: I think this is a very positive environment for markets. 138 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 5: And I look back to ninety five ninety six, the 139 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 5: last time the FED entered in easing cycle after tightening 140 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 5: and avoiding a recession, and that time we only got 141 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 5: a very very shallow seventy five basis points in easing. 142 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 5: We still saw GDP growth improve really significantly soon after 143 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 5: the Fed ended its easing cycle, and I think we 144 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 5: could see a very significant reacceleration in growth if we 145 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 5: get this more powerful easing cycle. 146 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 2: We note that the two year yield is actually now 147 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 2: higher than when the FED cut rates by fifty bases points. 148 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 2: But I think if you look back to July, the 149 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 2: yields has come down pretty rapidly from four point seventy 150 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 2: five percent to the current three point sixty four. So 151 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 2: this is an example of how the market got out 152 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 2: in front of the Fed, and the market was acting 153 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 2: perhaps a little bit too aggressively in your view. 154 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 5: Absolutely, and we have to assume that that is going 155 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 5: to happen again. I mean, this is very much a 156 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 5: part of the recalibration of monetary policy. There are going 157 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 5: to be periods where the market gets ahead and then 158 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 5: it takes someone like Chair Powell to rain them back in, 159 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 5: and so it's a little dance that's done. But it 160 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 5: is very much an easing cycle that I think is 161 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 5: very significant. And again it's not just the US. So 162 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 5: many economies are embarking on easing right now at the 163 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 5: same time, and I think they're looking out on pretty 164 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 5: significant monetary policy loosenings. So this is good news for markets. 165 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:55,319 Speaker 3: I think the case of China is remarkable in terms 166 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 3: of easing. Give me your assessment of how you evaluate 167 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 3: the the stimulus package that has been unleashed lately by 168 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 3: the Chinese authorities. 169 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 5: Well, let's see, this evaluation is a work in progress. 170 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 5: We certainly know the kind of stimulus we're getting on 171 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 5: the monetary policy side, and that is very very significant. 172 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 5: I think has the potential to be quite powerful. But 173 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:24,319 Speaker 5: what we've learned from recent history is that typically monetary 174 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 5: policy stimulus works best when it comes with some fiscal stimulus, 175 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 5: and we have the potential for that too, and so 176 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 5: I'm very excited. I'm looking for more details, but certainly 177 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 5: this has I think the very real possibility of impacting 178 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,679 Speaker 5: the Chinese economy in a very positive way, putting it 179 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 5: over five percent growth target. 180 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 2: Let me ask you something that might sound a little contentious, 181 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 2: but both you and Doug kind of suggest that the 182 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 2: Fed was concerned about financial conditions easing too much, so 183 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 2: basically looking at the market feeling uncomfortable with gains. But 184 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 2: when you see where the Fed funds rate is in 185 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 2: comparison to where inflation is and where growth is, I mean, 186 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,959 Speaker 2: shouldn't that be what they're looking at. That's more meaty 187 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 2: than the ups and downs of a market. 188 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 5: Well, you make a great point. I think they should 189 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 5: have been looking at it a lot more carefully before 190 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 5: they started easing, because we did see very restrictive monetary policy. 191 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 5: It's obviously gotten a little better, and I think it's 192 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 5: going to continue to get better. 193 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 6: Let's face it, the Fed has. 194 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 5: To have eyeballs on a lot of different metrics, and 195 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 5: it is very much a balancing act. But I do 196 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 5: believe that even within the Fed. There are some members 197 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 5: that are certainly good cops, and there are some members 198 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 5: that are bad cops, and they make it work, although 199 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 5: at times it can seem like a cacophony of voices. 200 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 3: Christina. As you know, we have the employment data on Friday. 201 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 3: That may be the main event of the week, although 202 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 3: tomorrow we do get data on job openings. How do 203 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 3: you understand the American labor market right now? Is it 204 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 3: really softening or is it kind of more stable than soft. 205 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 5: It's definitely softening in my opinion, but I would characterize 206 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 5: it as more appropriate, more appropriately termed normalizing. It was 207 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 5: incredibly tight in fact, not to go back to ninety five, 208 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 5: the ninety four to ninety five tightening cycle again, but 209 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 5: when the Fed started doing that, unemployment was above six percent. 210 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 5: Of course, we had unemployment at a much the unemployment 211 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 5: rated a much lower level. So this is an extremely 212 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 5: tight labor market, and so this little bit of softening 213 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 5: is more normalization. 214 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,719 Speaker 2: Just briefly, to put your global hat on, do you 215 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 2: buy China here or no? 216 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 5: I think China looks very attractive, and I think it's 217 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 5: active for a while because of valuations. But now we 218 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,080 Speaker 5: have the catalyst we have this very significant stimulus, so 219 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 5: I think this is an attractive time. There are legs there. 220 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting. In last quarter of the rest of 221 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 2: the world has outperformed the US and the equal weight 222 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 2: has outperformed the S and P five hundred. So yep, 223 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 2: maybe it's time. Maybe it's playing out right in front 224 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 2: of us. Christina, thank you so much for joining us. 225 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 2: Christina Hooper, a Chief Global market Strategist at Invesco. Andrew Sliman, 226 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 2: Senior equity portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. FED 227 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 2: fund futures. See the FED funds rated about three point 228 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 2: zero two percent this time next year. That's a long 229 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,559 Speaker 2: ways from around five percent where we are now? Can 230 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 2: you get there with twenty five bases point moves? 231 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 7: Well? Good morning. How accurate has been has this FED 232 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 7: fun future has been over the last year? 233 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, the question I guess really is the way 234 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 2: I put it last time was, which is you know, 235 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 2: it's either that the market is way out in front 236 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 2: of itself or that the FED is behind the curve. 237 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:12,599 Speaker 7: I think that the market's way out in front of 238 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:16,599 Speaker 7: itself because we watched the FED FUN futures and expectations 239 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 7: of rape cuts and they you know, on a weekly basis, 240 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 7: and they are constantly flip flopping, and the market was 241 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 7: way too optimistic the FED would start cutting before they did. 242 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 7: And now I think they're too optimistic. The FED will 243 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 7: cut more aggressively than they are, and I think I 244 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 7: agree with you our own pal, they'll take it slowly. 245 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 7: And I do find it interesting that yields have gotten 246 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 7: A'm a acuy manager, but I noticed that yields have 247 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 7: caught up since they since they cut rates in September. 248 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 3: Andrew, do you have to kind of re examine your 249 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 3: thinking of the employment data at the end of the 250 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 3: week is on the soft side. 251 00:14:57,680 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I think one of the things that 252 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 7: worries me is that the I think we are in 253 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 7: for soft landing, but that's now consensus. What you see 254 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 7: worked from an equity factor, What worked in the market 255 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 7: in September was high risk. It wasn't about value growth, 256 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 7: broadening out, none of that. It was about the more 257 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 7: risk you took in the stocks you chose, the better 258 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 7: you did, which you know implies as we're coming into October, 259 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 7: you know, there's a there's a pretty high level of 260 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 7: optimism that we're going to have a soft landing, and 261 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 7: so the setup is not good going into that labor 262 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 7: you know, number If in fact it's weaker than expected, 263 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 7: you know, then you could have a you know, a 264 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 7: more substantial pullback because you know, risk has been chased 265 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 7: this month, and that's a dangerous thing. 266 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 2: So the thing about mark is they tend to discount 267 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 2: quickly and do get out in front of themselves. So 268 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 2: you just mentioned in example where you know two year 269 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 2: yields are actually higher now from when the Fed cut 270 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 2: interest rates. However, you know they are down over the 271 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 2: last three months from four point seventy five percent to 272 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 2: three sixty three here at the moment. So it's kind 273 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 2: of an example of the market getting out in front 274 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 2: of it. So I sort of feel like it's a 275 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 2: good time to be confident now except for valuations. So 276 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 2: are you confident? Can you go along this market now? 277 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 7: Well? I think within the market there's great opportunities because 278 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 7: what again, I told you high risk worked, But what 279 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 7: also worked in September were the companies with the worst 280 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 7: earnings revisions. So I think there's a lot of short 281 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 7: covering of stocks that had done the worst fundamentally and 282 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 7: therefore their stock prices, So they were the ones that 283 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 7: bounced the most highest risk worst earnings revisions. And we're 284 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 7: coming into earning season and the result is that the 285 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 7: stocks that lag actually the companies that have done well 286 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 7: here today because they've had the best earning provisions. Now 287 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 7: we're coming into quarterly earnings, and I think that's a 288 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:12,120 Speaker 7: great setup for companies that have actually done fundamentally very 289 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 7: well this year. They lag in September, and I think 290 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 7: that's a great setup for them to remind people why 291 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 7: they're doing so well and like why the risk is 292 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:25,199 Speaker 7: is people say, oh, okay, well, maybe you know, the 293 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 7: great China recovery won't turn these consumer product companies as 294 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 7: quickly as I expected things like that that have had 295 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 7: the biggest route. So I think it's a great setup 296 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 7: for finding companies that had the best fundamental story because 297 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 7: they've lagged the last you know, thirty thirty days. 298 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 3: Well, you mentioned the great China recovery there. I think 299 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 3: that what we've seen in market action smells to me 300 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 3: like a massive short covering of squeeze of sorts, right. 301 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 2: Does it? 302 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 7: That's exactly right. 303 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 3: So do you have maybe the stomach to put some 304 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 3: money to work in China right now, where there's just 305 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 3: too much uncertainty still, I. 306 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:07,640 Speaker 7: Think the best opportunities actually in material stocks, like in Japan, 307 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 7: the commodity exporters that got hit when the you know, 308 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 7: really since this summer when the yen stopped depreciating. But 309 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 7: as you look at when you think about China and 310 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 7: if the economy is going to recover, I think you're 311 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 7: going to see commodity prices actually levitate and that will 312 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 7: help a lot of these big commodity exporting companies out 313 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 7: of Japan. I'm more confident in that than I am 314 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 7: to say, hey, the luxury stocks in Europe have bottom 315 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 7: because the Chinese consumer is going to come back in waves, 316 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 7: which is really which has really hurt those companies. I'm 317 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 7: more confident in the commodity rally taking hold than say, 318 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 7: the consumer turning around. You know, either it's French luxury 319 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 7: or cosmetic companies in the US. 320 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 2: So you wouldn't be a buyer of some of these 321 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 2: beaten down property names, then. 322 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 7: Well, I'm not an emerging markets manager. I'm I'm a 323 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 7: developed markets manager, and that's I think Japan offers a 324 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 7: great opportunity because these stocks have really pulled back quite 325 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 7: a bit, you know, in the last three months. 326 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 3: So I'm curious about any of you mentioned Europe there, 327 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 3: whether there's opportunity that you're seeing in European companies that 328 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 3: may be exposed to the US. 329 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 7: Well exposed to China. I think more so, it's just 330 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 7: I don't I'm less. I'm not as optimistic as the 331 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 7: market has been over the last week about the consumer 332 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 7: oriented stocks, but I think the material stocks that benefit 333 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 7: immediately from higher commodity prices, I think that's a better 334 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 7: bet than the consumer has truly turned in China. 335 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 2: We had a guest on yesterday and we were talking 336 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 2: about if the FED is going to continue cutting interest rates, 337 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 2: even at a slow pace, that the dollar might weaken 338 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 2: from here. And the guest had some comments that yes, butt, 339 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 2: And the butt part was that the euro doesn't seem 340 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 2: like it can gain a lot against the dollar because 341 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,640 Speaker 2: of conditions in Europe, and you know, you have some 342 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 2: problems with the yen as well. What are you thinking 343 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,199 Speaker 2: about the dollar going forward? 344 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, I'm an equity manager, 345 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 7: I'm not a currency specialist. But whenever anyone says, well, 346 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 7: the dollar is going down, my first question is always 347 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 7: so what currency exactly do you love? Because you get 348 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 7: the dollars going down, and so I think it's you know, yeah, 349 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 7: I understand the FEDS cutting, and they're cutting more aggressively, 350 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 7: and maybe the dollar weekends, but I don't think it's 351 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 7: catastrophic for the dollar because I don't see other currencies 352 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 7: really stepping up and being very powerful. 353 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,919 Speaker 2: All right, Andrew, thank you very much for joining us 354 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 2: here on the program, for taking the time, particularly this late. 355 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 2: We do really appreciate it. Drew Slimman, Senior equity portfolio 356 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 2: manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. We say good morning 357 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 2: to Sandy Breger, whose chief client officer at Esperien, joining 358 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 2: us here live on the program. Sandy, FED fun futures 359 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 2: are at three point zero two percent this time next year. 360 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,439 Speaker 2: That's a long way from where the FED fund future 361 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 2: or where the FED funds rate is now. So my 362 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 2: question is either the market is out in front of 363 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 2: itself or the FED is behind the curve. Which is it? 364 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 6: Hi, Brian, we think the market's doing pretty well. 365 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: We're pleased the Fed's done a really great job of 366 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:49,919 Speaker 1: avoiding the long feared recession, and we think with the 367 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: recent decrease in the FED funds rate that the economy 368 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 1: is going to get a little bit of a boost, 369 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: and we see signs of growth in the months ahead. 370 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 6: There's always room. 371 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: For risk, but we think the markets on track and 372 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,679 Speaker 1: we think that the Fed will continue to decrease rates 373 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,199 Speaker 1: in the months ahead. Not sure that we're willing to 374 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 1: bet on the pace of those rates, but that should 375 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 1: also you know, regardless of how much we get in 376 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: over what time period, it should help boost the economy 377 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 1: a little more and pour into the growth that we expect. 378 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, even with a drop in mortgage rates, right and 379 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 3: the refinancings that have been happening, that's going to inject 380 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 3: a fair amount of cash into the economy. So this 381 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 3: is the final day of the third quarter. How well 382 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 3: did we do and what are we going to see 383 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 3: in the earnings. 384 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 6: Well, we've been pretty pleased with the third quarter. 385 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 1: We've really been diversifying our client portfolios, keeping some of 386 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: the MAGS seven in the portfolios, but not necessarily to 387 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: the degree in which it represents the overall S and 388 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,439 Speaker 1: P five hundred. So we've been very pleased with the 389 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,719 Speaker 1: comeback of small cap stocks, of value stocks, even of 390 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: receives investments. That's all been good news for our portfolios, 391 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: and we expect more of that as we head into 392 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. We do think the earnings for the 393 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 1: third quarter will be strong, and we expect earnings to 394 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 1: continue in the fourth quarter for those reasons you mentioned, Doug. 395 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: We're going to get a boost from the lower rates, 396 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: the stronger housing market, and equity prices. All of that 397 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: should support broad consumption, which should turn into good earnings 398 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 1: reports for businesses here in the US. 399 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 2: With the unemployment rate moving from three point four percent 400 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 2: to up over four percent, it does suggest something is afoot. 401 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 2: How would you describe what that is? 402 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 6: I think it is just a transitioning of the economy. 403 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 1: That's why the FED was dropping rates to help support businesses, 404 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 1: and we're not too worried about it at this point. 405 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: We'll continue to watch the numbers, but again, with the 406 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: support to the consumer, we think that things balance out 407 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 1: and we should be in a pretty good glide path 408 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. Although as we move 409 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,359 Speaker 1: into the fourth quarter with the election around the corner, 410 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:13,120 Speaker 1: we do expect that to cause some volatility, and we 411 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: have our eyes on the geopolitical events happening around the world. 412 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: That could also cause some volatility as well, though so 413 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: far it hasn't really impacted the global economic situation in 414 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 1: any big degree. 415 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 3: Speaking of kind of global economics, we've got a story 416 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 3: in Japan with a new prime minister, and a story 417 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 3: in China that involves a massive roll out of stimulus. 418 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 3: Are you looking at any of those markets right now? 419 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 3: Are you looking at offshore opportunities? 420 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 6: We're sure it's been pretty exciting over the last few days. 421 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 6: In the emerging markets. We have fairly strong allocations there. 422 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 6: They've been so undervalue the companies there relative to US stocks. 423 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 6: So we've really liked. 424 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: India, China, Taiwan, Korea, and Brazil and the developed overseas area. 425 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 1: Japan has been in favor in our portfolios. We do 426 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: expect more good things to come there. And again, this 427 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: is all coming on the heels of the US stock 428 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,919 Speaker 1: market leading the world for so long, and now we 429 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 1: are getting a little bit of softening in the economy, 430 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: though again we expect it to be resilient. The decrease 431 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: in the dollar has certainly helped those overseas investments, especially 432 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: when the foreign currencies get translated back into dollars. 433 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 2: The CSI three hundred has moved from about thirty two 434 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 2: hundred to around about four thousand now, so you know, 435 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 2: obviously twenty five twenty six percent in a very short 436 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 2: period of time a week or so. Does that feel 437 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,119 Speaker 2: like too much or do you zoom back out and 438 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 2: look over the long run and say, well, it's just 439 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 2: barely recovering a lot of a little of what it lost. 440 00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that long term view is really important, Brian. 441 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: It is a big reaction in the short term to 442 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: the favorable support, but we are bullish over the long term. 443 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 1: There's just so much that the country is doing to 444 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: support its stock market and to support its businesses, and 445 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: it's one of the largest economies in the world. Long term, 446 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: we're feeling pretty good about keeping allocations there. 447 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 3: Tomorrow in the US we have the vice presidential debate. 448 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 3: You mentioned the election and how it may produce a 449 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 3: lot more volatility in the weeks ahead. Is it informing 450 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 3: and in change and investment strategy for you right now? 451 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,919 Speaker 3: At this point it isn't. 452 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 6: For us. We really take the long term view. 453 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: So we've been encouraging clients because we've been getting a 454 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: lot of questions from our clients our corporate executives, family 455 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,160 Speaker 1: business owners, and entrepreneurs about how to think about the 456 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: election and their portfolios. And our perspective is that there's 457 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 1: often too much weight given to political outcomes when it 458 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 1: comes to judging investment prospects. So we're focusing our clients 459 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:05,400 Speaker 1: on the economy, interest rate valuations. We think it's much 460 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: better to focus on those things rather than who's sitting 461 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,399 Speaker 1: in the oval office. And if you look at the 462 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 1: long term data, long term equity returns have been remarkably 463 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 1: consistent regardless of election outcomes. So we're really encouraging folks 464 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 1: not to get too caught up in the politics, so 465 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:22,439 Speaker 1: to speak. 466 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 2: Sandy, thank you so much for joining us. Sandy Breger, 467 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 2: Chief Client Officer at Espiria. 468 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 3: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you 469 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,360 Speaker 3: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 470 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 471 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 3: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 472 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,439 Speaker 3: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 473 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 3: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 474 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Business app.