1 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: All right, welcome in Lake Kick is Live. 2 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 2: It is Thursday night, October twenty ninth, year of Our 3 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 2: Lord twenty twenty kit. Those Halloween preparations underway people, if 4 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: you haven't already, We've got several predictions on the show tonight, Colin. 5 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: I think we're breaking down like five more games. We've 6 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 2: already got Auburn LSU done, LSU Auburn say the visitor first. 7 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 2: We also did Ohio State Penn State the other night. 8 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: Those game previews are already on the channel if you 9 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 2: want to see him. We're going to retouch on Ohio 10 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 2: State Penn State tonight because I went back and watched 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: the show and I realized I didn't even say like 12 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 2: half of what I wanted to do in that preview. 13 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 2: So not only are we going to rehit that game, 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 2: I've also got a totals bet that I'm going to 15 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 2: hand out in the Auburn LSU game. 16 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: We have got so much to react to. 17 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 2: It's kind of like an off season to lead the 18 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: show in a sense, because normally, once we get in 19 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 2: the season, we're just talking about games, and we're going 20 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 2: to talk about Texas Oklahoma State tonight. But we've got 21 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 2: to talk about a lot of other things going on 22 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 2: with Texas. Those of you with your ear to the 23 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 2: ground know exactly what I'm talking about. If you don't 24 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 2: stay tuned, you'll know in like two minutes. Also, best bets, 25 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 2: we are sixty one point two percent against the numbers 26 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 2: so far this year. We got five more big ones 27 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 2: coming your way tonight. And a final reminder before we 28 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 2: start the show. If you haven't already subscribe, subscribe subscribe 29 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 2: to this year twenty four to seven sports YouTube channel. 30 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 2: We are over thirty three thousand and counting, which is 31 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 2: big Colin because a few months ago we were at 32 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 2: like six thousand when we started doing the show. So 33 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 2: really good growth. But I think we can do better, 34 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 2: you know, why not get like a million. Probably can't 35 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 2: get it done by the end of this weekend. Could 36 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,400 Speaker 2: be one week, could be two weeks, but let's saime 37 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 2: for that. Even if we fall. 38 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: Short, we'll probably still reach a pretty lofty goal. 39 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: Speaking of goals, the goal at Texas to win a 40 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 2: national championship, right, I think that's fair to say. As 41 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 2: I look around a room that's empty, I think it's 42 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 2: fair to say that the goal at Texas should be 43 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 2: nothing short of competing for national champions chips. 44 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: Well, you remember on. 45 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 2: October tenth, when we were leading into that weekend of 46 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 2: October tenth at least, and the Red River Shootout was 47 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 2: coming up, and it was the Oklahoma Texas one team 48 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: really wants to win, the other team has to win 49 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 2: sort of deal. And that's how we framed it. And 50 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 2: I framed it that way for a reason. I rarely 51 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 2: talk about must win games. I saved that phrase to 52 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 2: use only in the most intentional manners. Well, I was 53 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 2: intentional that week, and I told you I think Tom Herman. 54 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 2: I think Texas and Tom Herman they have to win 55 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 2: this game. It'd be nice if Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma could, 56 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: but Texas has to win the game. Well, they didn't 57 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 2: win the game. That has consequences. As I told you, 58 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 2: I'm not some dude who's going to say they got 59 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: to win the game and then they lose and I say, well, 60 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 2: dust it off, try again next week. No, I thought 61 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 2: that set a ball in motion that's eventually going to 62 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 2: lead to coaching changes at the head coaching position and below. 63 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 1: At Texas. 64 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: Still believe that that's only been furthered by the events 65 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: of the last forty eight hours. 66 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: We'll get into that in just a second, but I. 67 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:00,040 Speaker 2: Also want to tell you because I don't think I 68 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 2: went down this road in totality. The week of that game. 69 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 2: We just didn't have time. There were a lot of whispers, 70 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 2: those of you. If you're a member over at Horns 71 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 2: twenty four to seven, I'm sure the guys and girls 72 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 2: over there were talking about that. 73 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: But there were whispers in the recruiting industry. 74 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 2: That the negative recruiting had really been on the uptick 75 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 2: against Texas. And listen, for lack of a better term, 76 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 2: I say negative recruiting because I don't even think it's 77 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 2: negative recruiting. If you and I are going heads up 78 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 2: for a kid your Texas, and I'm anyone else, and 79 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 2: I walk in your living room and I say, hey, 80 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 2: they're not doing so hot. Look at their record. Look 81 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 2: at the kind of discombobulated nature in which the entire 82 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 2: program is operating football team in front of your eyes 83 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 2: on Saturday, behind the scenes. Do you really think Tom 84 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: Herman's going to be there for a long time. I 85 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: don't even think that's all that unfair. So I don't 86 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 2: even know that that's all that negative unless you consider 87 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: reality to be negative. Reality right now is a negative 88 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 2: for Texas. So if you present the reality, maybe that 89 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 2: is negative recruiting. So all the while, now here's the 90 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 2: other becks. As they lost the Oklahoma game, it went 91 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 2: from kind of a trickle trickle trickle to a flood 92 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 2: of negative recruiting, and all of a sudden it became 93 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 2: the overwhelming majority that thought, it's not a matter of 94 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: if anymore, but when Tom Herman's going to be gone there. 95 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 2: So then I would present that to some of my 96 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 2: Texas buddies back home and a few that I even 97 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 2: know here, and I would get this response. It wasn't 98 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 2: even necessarily that this was their argument. Maybe some of them, 99 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 2: but others were playing devil's advocate. And so when I 100 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,679 Speaker 2: would suggest that Texas may be moving on from Herman 101 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: at the end of the year, I would get this 102 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 2: in return, well, you can't upset the recruiting class. I mean, 103 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 2: look at their upcoming recruiting class. And this was the 104 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two firewall, as it became known in these circles, 105 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 2: at least on late Cake. The twenty twenty two firewall 106 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:49,239 Speaker 2: was quin Ewers. The firewall has fallen people. Quinn Ewers 107 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 2: decommitted from Texas yesterday. Mike Roach put out a very 108 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 2: very comprehensive update on this yesterday afternoon. Let me give 109 00:04:57,960 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 2: you a little timeline. I was running this by Colin 110 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 2: So yesterday afternoon Mike wrote, jover on horns twenty four 111 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 2: to seven essentially tells you what's coming in a guarded 112 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 2: language because they had to use that, but he essentially 113 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 2: he telegraphed all of this it was coming. They're very 114 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: dialed in over there, if you haven't already noticed. And 115 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,839 Speaker 2: so I tweeted that article. Some dude, sure enough, pops 116 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 2: up under there and says, this is just clickbait. About 117 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 2: five minutes later, quen ewers dcommits that dude suspiciously nowhere 118 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 2: to be found, suspiciously absent. So sometimes that clickbait it 119 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 2: can become real in quite a hurry. Quin ewers dcommits 120 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 2: in the last minute. Let me turn the paper sideways. 121 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 2: I had to write it sideways. Faison Wilson four star 122 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,040 Speaker 2: wide receiver for the twenty twenty two class already decommitted. 123 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 2: So that's two in twenty four hours. Don't know where 124 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 2: that ends, but youwers was monumental. That is a tsunami. 125 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 2: As much as one player can equal, that's a big deal. 126 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 2: That's a very big deal. I thought it was a 127 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 2: red flag, to be honest with you, when they couldn't 128 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 2: lock down the Brockermeyer twins, among others. And those are 129 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 2: legacy recruits in Fort Worth, Texas, Texas cannot get to 130 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 2: stay home. Those kids grew looking for any reason to 131 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 2: play for Texas. They're committed Alabama. They're gonna sign with 132 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 2: Alabama in December. So previously I was told, hey, you 133 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 2: can't fire Tom Herman, can't get rid of them because 134 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 2: of recruiting. I don't have anyone telling me that anymore. 135 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 2: So I'm searching now anyone out there who wants to 136 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 2: remain in the devil's advocate category. I want you to 137 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 2: tell me what's the argument, because that one's irrelevant. I mean, 138 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: recruiting is leaking. It is leaking, leaking really bad right 139 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 2: now yours. Also, according to Mike Roach, after he decommitted, 140 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 2: he shared this little tidbit. I don't know if you 141 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 2: guys read this. I know you guys probably in Longhorn circles. 142 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 2: Did Mike Roach said, not only did he decommit, but 143 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 2: he had been told quin Ewers was discussing with other 144 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: players and Texas commits about his decision making ahead of time. 145 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 1: That's not good, friends, that's no bueno. 146 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 2: So then I go back over as I'm as, I 147 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 2: was about to walk over to the building. We do 148 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 2: the show in a different building than our office is in, 149 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 2: and so I had to walk through the whatever's happening 150 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 2: outside of Tropical depression at this point. And so right 151 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 2: before I did that, I was checking out Chip Brown's update. 152 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 2: Bobby Burton put one up over there. So a lot 153 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 2: of folks really close to the Texas program. Now Chip 154 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 2: Brown's just quoting what people have told him. So this 155 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 2: is not a knock on Chip Brown. He did phenomenal 156 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 2: reporting on this. But I want to read you a 157 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 2: quote from the Insider article You could check out the 158 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: whole thing over on Horns twenty four to seven. This 159 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 2: is a quote from a high placed source in Austin 160 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 2: Saturday's game at Oklahoma State, and really every game left 161 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: on the schedule is an indicator of where this program is. 162 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 2: And I look at that and I think to myself, 163 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: are you serious? There's someone out there who has a 164 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 2: fully functioning brain in working eyeballs that after all, this 165 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 2: still needs an indicator like this Saturday is going to 166 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 2: show this person something that they don't already know. You've 167 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 2: got recruits fleeing their home state of Texas left and right. 168 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 2: The culture is a mess. You've got chronic penalty and 169 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 2: turnover issues procedure. They are a joke in big games 170 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 2: and in games their favorite by double digits. 171 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: And there's zero consistency week to week in the program. 172 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 2: And Oklahoma just came in there, benched their starting quarterback 173 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 2: during the middle of their rivalry game against you and 174 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 2: still found a way to win. You were having to 175 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 2: come from behind to even try and force overtime against them. 176 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: So if those aren't indicators, I don't know what in 177 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 2: the world's going to happen Saturday. That's an indicator short 178 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 2: of Tom Herman walking out and just saying I give 179 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 2: up and waiting a literal white flag. What is the 180 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 2: absolute best case? Again, for people who are still on 181 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 2: the fence here, this is not my program. 182 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,679 Speaker 1: This is your program. You guys have ownership in it. 183 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: I don't. 184 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 2: I'm just standing here in Nashville and I'm looking over 185 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 2: there and I'm watching and I'm wondering what is the 186 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 2: best case for people who are still in the Herman camp. 187 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 2: That's great, that's fine. You got an opinion same as mine. 188 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 2: Yours is probably worth more than mine. You're an actual 189 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 2: Texas fan. But I just want to ask you what 190 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 2: is the best case if you were to have things 191 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 2: go ten out of ten? 192 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 1: Best case scenario? I want you to think. 193 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 2: About what that would mean long term for Tom Herman 194 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,719 Speaker 2: at Texas. Just you define it whatever best case is, 195 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 2: and then picture that, and then I still want you 196 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 2: to be honest with me. Is it even close to 197 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: Alabama and Nick Saban? Is it even close to Ryan 198 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 2: Day and Ohio State? Is it even close to dabbling 199 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 2: Clemson in one of their normal years? Because every year 200 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 2: is elite for those programs, so their normal is elite. 201 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 2: Is their best case at Texas with Tom Herman is 202 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 2: the best case elite? 203 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: At this point? 204 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 2: Have you ever seen any indication of that? Have you 205 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 2: ever seen an indication that consistency in excellence would be 206 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 2: the hallmark of that program under Tom Herman? 207 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: I haven't, So. 208 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 2: I'm asking you. I don't think anyone has seen it. 209 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 2: I want to know where would it come from It's 210 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 2: got to come from someplace that we haven't seen before. Now, 211 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 2: my read on Ship's story, I read you that quote there, 212 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 2: but that was a quote my own individual read on 213 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 2: Ship's story was I don't think Tom Herman he doesn't 214 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 2: have success on the field. 215 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: First off and off the field. 216 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 2: It's very obvious he doesn't have the same crew of 217 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 2: high level net worth individuals or is you know them 218 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 2: donors and boosters slapping him on the back after these 219 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 2: losses as Mac Brown did during the darker times for 220 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 2: him in Austin. That's how he was able to weather 221 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 2: the storm. That's why, among other reasons, I don't believe 222 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 2: Tom Herman will be able to But you got the losing, 223 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 2: you got the bad mismanagement and mishandling perceived or reality 224 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 2: of the whole eyes of Texas situation and not being 225 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 2: particularly loved by the right people. I don't know where 226 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 2: that equity is, Like, I don't know there's a lot 227 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 2: on this side of the scale. 228 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 1: I don't know what balances that out. 229 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 2: So I think, based on what I was reading from Chip, 230 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 2: I think it just validates what I thought going into 231 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 2: the Oklahoma game. This was decided that afternoon decisions weren't finalized. 232 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 2: There weren't moves made that afternoon. But you mark my 233 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 2: words when we see how this thing ends for textas 234 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 2: this year, and ultimately we're getting ready for the start 235 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 2: of the twenty twenty one season, whatever they look like 236 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 2: at that point, that will have been precipitated by the 237 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 2: loss to oklahom Home, among other things, on October tenth 238 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 2: year of our lower twenty twenty all Right, we got 239 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 2: games to actually talk about this weekend. 240 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 1: Now. 241 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 2: As I said, we did our Ohio State Penn State 242 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 2: breakdown on the Tuesday Night Show, and we did everything 243 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 2: that you would want to know. But yet I don't 244 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 2: think we did everything I wanted to know, or at 245 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 2: least everything I wanted to say, because I listened to 246 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 2: it and I said, you left a lot of meat 247 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 2: on the bone there, So let's chew the rest of 248 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 2: the meat off the bone. 249 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: Let's look it clean here. 250 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:29,839 Speaker 2: Ohio State is as of tonight, it's still about a 251 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 2: twelve point favorite on the road against Penn State. That's 252 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 2: the seven thirty seven thirty Eastern game on ABC. I 253 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 2: want to kind of draw parallels between this game and 254 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 2: the Georgia Alabama game. A couple of weeks ago, because 255 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 2: it seems like every time we have one of these 256 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,319 Speaker 2: few elite teams Bama, Clemson, Ohio State. Essentially, it seems 257 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 2: like every time we have one of those teams play 258 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 2: a legitimate challenger, someone they're going to be less than 259 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 2: a two touchdown favorite against. In other words, there are 260 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 2: these same list of questions that people pull out of 261 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 2: their back pocket and they unfold the and it says, hmm, 262 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 2: is the gap closing? Okay, that's one of the quotes, 263 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 2: and that's the question that everyone wants to know about 264 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 2: this one. Is the gap closing? You know, is recruiting 265 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 2: getting better for Penn State? How wide is the gap? 266 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 2: I never pay attention to the gap until quarterback is solved, 267 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 2: and I don't know that quarterback. I don't know that 268 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 2: you would describe that position as having been solved in 269 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 2: this matchup against Ohio State. So go back to that 270 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 2: build up, the Georgia Alabama build up, all that talk 271 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 2: all week, We contributed to it, We talked about it 272 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 2: on this show too, all that talk about roster comparisons 273 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 2: and Georgia, you know, in the team talent composite, they 274 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,319 Speaker 2: had pulled even maybe even slightly ahead of Alabama. 275 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: There were all. 276 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 2: Sorts of position matchups and position breakdowns, and yet what 277 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 2: happened when we got to Saturday. 278 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 1: What happened all of that? A lot of it was true. 279 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 1: There was a lot of validity in it. It's happening 280 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: here too. 281 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 2: It's happening in this because you can look at the 282 00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 2: Penn State Ohio State matchup and you could say, you know, 283 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 2: you got Wilson, you got a lave like, that's a 284 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 2: really good they got a really good wide receiver corps 285 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 2: at Ohio State. And then you could look and you 286 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 2: could look in the secondary. You could say, hey, Penn 287 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 2: State probably the best set of defensive backs at least 288 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 2: that Ohio State will face, at least in the regular 289 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 2: season in. 290 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: The Big Ten. I don't argue with that. I don't 291 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: take much issue with that. 292 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 2: You could say, this combination of their offensive line at 293 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 2: Ohio State, obviously justin fields, this passing game like that 294 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 2: is an elite combination. But then you could also say, well, 295 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:30,319 Speaker 2: you know, at Penn State's got a lot of depth 296 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 2: and versatility along the defensive line that linebacker corps can 297 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 2: get after the quarterback. 298 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:36,599 Speaker 1: Ohio State didn't. 299 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 2: Show the ability to tear away chunks of yards in 300 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 2: the run game in Week one. Think Nebraska had a 301 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 2: lot to do with that. And so you could come 302 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 2: up with all this matchup stuff you want to. Those 303 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 2: things all have shades of truth to them. But now 304 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 2: I kick it back to that Georgia Alabama game, and 305 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 2: it taught us it's probably gonna come down to quarterback. 306 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 2: You could dumb this stuff down so much if you 307 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 2: just about eight times out of ten and these bigger matchups, 308 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 2: said hey, who's got the best quarterback? 309 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: I think I'll just take that team. 310 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 2: Can't promise they'll always cover, can't promise they'll always win. 311 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 2: But I think common sense would tell you it gives 312 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 2: you a little bit more advantage than just well, you 313 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 2: know what, I really like the outside linebackers versus the 314 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 2: slot receivers in ability to really control the perimeter here 315 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 2: like great. I mean that may happen. It could happen, 316 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 2: and you still get beat by seventeen points. So the gap, Yeah, 317 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 2: the GAP's there. But man, even if they closed the gap, 318 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 2: even if the rosters were a lot more comparable, it's 319 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 2: going to come down to quarterback in all likelihood. Now 320 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: here's What's interesting to me, and we kind of touched 321 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 2: on this the other night, but I wanted to dive 322 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 2: a little bit deeper into it. What's interesting to me 323 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 2: is if your Penn State, if you're Kirk Shiraka and 324 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 2: that offensive staff, how do you think, what do you 325 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 2: think is the best way to approach this offensively? What 326 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 2: gives you the best chance to win? Because you can 327 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 2: go two schools of thought here. You can either look 328 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 2: at it and you can say, all right, they got 329 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 2: a lot of explosive elements over there on their offense. 330 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: We want to keep them off the field. We want 331 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: to play ball control, we want to play keep away. 332 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 2: And so so we want a bleed clot But at 333 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 2: the same time, you got that option, or you got 334 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 2: the other option. You could look over there and say, yeah, 335 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 2: they're loaded, but man, that's a green secondary. Yeah they're loaded, 336 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 2: but they're not exactly proven along that defensive line. Maybe 337 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: our best shot here is to do the inverse of 338 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 2: what we did against Indiana, and let's run some tempo 339 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 2: on them, and let's count on being able to manufacture 340 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 2: some confusion in their secondary and let's get our yards 341 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 2: and let's get our potential points that way, you know 342 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 2: the risk there. I'm not so sure the reward makes 343 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 2: sense a little bit more in the second category, because 344 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 2: if you tell me that you're just gonna try to 345 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 2: slow bleed Ohio State to death, if you tell me 346 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 2: you're gonna try and suffocate them, I'm gonna tell you're gonna. 347 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: Have a long evening ahead of you. 348 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 2: I don't care where you're playing, I don't care how 349 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 2: many people are there. You're gonna have a long afternoon. 350 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 2: I think they got to try something offensively, philosophically, pretty 351 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 2: radically different than they did last week. And to be 352 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 2: honest with you, I think that probably was in the 353 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 2: cards even if they had won last week. I don't 354 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 2: think it's gonna be a desperation reaction to losing. I 355 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 2: just think philosophically, they probably look at this and say, 356 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 2: this gives us our best chance to win. How about 357 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 2: some other Week nine predictions, shall we? We've got one, two, three, four, 358 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 2: I got five games for you here, So let's roll 359 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: into this, and remember, if you want to see the 360 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 2: prediction videos for the Ohio State Penn State game, the 361 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 2: LSU Auburn game, those are already available on the channel. 362 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 2: Let's start in Lexington, Kentucky. Georgia is a sixteen and 363 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: a half point favorite at Kentucky. That line, I think 364 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 2: a little while ago probably moved to seventeen in a 365 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 2: lot of places. This is a Saturday noon, Eastern Time 366 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 2: kickoff on SEC Network. Here's a question for you. Last 367 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 2: time you saw Georgia, you remember when it was? It 368 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 2: was all the way back in that Alabama game. They 369 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 2: had some games moved around, well a game moved around, 370 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 2: and so you have not seen them since then. How 371 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 2: are they gonna look coming out of a buy Because 372 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 2: I can tell you how Kentucky's about delug pretty motivated. 373 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 2: They come off a pretty humiliating defeat at the hands 374 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 2: of Missouri. We're gonna see Joey Gatewood get his first start. 375 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 2: That was made official today, rumored all week. Terry Wilson 376 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 2: not able to go Saturday. So Joey Gatewood, the Roburn transfer, 377 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 2: going to get the start for Mark Stoops and company. 378 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: Now, a couple of things that I think it's pretty 379 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: safe to assume here. 380 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 2: If you're Kirby smart, Kentucky is probably only beating you 381 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 2: if you turn the ball over. That's been Kentucky's m 382 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 2: This year. When they force turnovers, they win. When they don't, 383 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 2: got a little bit tougher time. Here's the second thing 384 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 2: that I think you can assume if you're Georgia, this 385 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 2: offense has to expand and diversify, not to beat Kentucky, 386 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 2: but you got Florida coming up. You eventually maybe have 387 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 2: another matchup with Alabama coming up. So you can either 388 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 2: choose to look at this Kentucky game as a one 389 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 2: game season, or you can come out of your bye 390 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 2: week trying to put a new foot forward here. 391 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: And we have no reason to believe JT. 392 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 2: Daniels is going to shock everyone and run out of 393 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 2: that tunnel Saturday and start crazier things have happened, of course, 394 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 2: But regardless I was told, irregardless has been added to 395 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 2: the Webster's Dictionary. Actually, so why not let's use it. Irregardless, 396 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 2: it still feels weird, regardless of which quarterback plays, don't. 397 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: They have to open things up a little bit. 398 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 2: But then you kick it back and you say, well, 399 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: if you do, hey, you're probably giving Kentucky the only 400 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 2: real shot that have because defensively you can shut them down. 401 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 2: We are going to have a play on this one 402 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 2: a little bit later on, I'm gonna give you the prediction. Now, 403 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Georgia to whim. We're gonna take Georgia 404 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 2: to cover. And I'm not done talking about this game, 405 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 2: so stay tuned later in the show. How about Texas 406 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 2: at Oklahoma State? We already touched on Texas in a 407 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 2: very general sense. Oklahoma State's a three point favorite. This 408 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 2: is the Saturday three pm Eastern time game. This is 409 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 2: on Big Fox. Our numbers, I gotta be honest with 410 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 2: you because we're not gonna do anything with this number, 411 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 2: but our numbers. Our model circled Texas. Our model loves 412 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 2: Texas this week. It loved LSU last week and we 413 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 2: didn't jump on it and we kicked ourselves. But that's 414 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 2: variance that could mean nothing. We are not going to 415 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 2: jump on Texas as an official play this week, even 416 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 2: though our model is screaming at us and will figuratively 417 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 2: backhand slap us if we don't. Several guessing several folks 418 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 2: guessing this line. Several folks kind of second guessing this 419 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 2: line as I saw this week leading up to picking 420 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 2: the game tonight, and they were saying, you know what, 421 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 2: what in the world I mean, what am I not 422 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 2: seeing here? 423 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: What does Vegas know that I don't know. 424 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 2: We've on one hand, got a program that looks to 425 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 2: be a disaster behind the scenes, and then on the 426 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 2: other hand, we've got an Oklahoma State program that is undefeated, 427 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 2: it's the Big twelve's best shot at the college Football 428 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 2: playoff contender, and well now they're only a three point 429 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 2: favorite against Texas. Well, I just want to tell you this. 430 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 2: It's okay to just back away from one guys, It's 431 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 2: okay to just watch. You don't have to have it 432 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 2: figured out. But I do want to remind you of something. 433 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,439 Speaker 2: Last week, the odds makers had these two teams pretty 434 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 2: well pegged down. Texas was favored by eleven against Baylor. 435 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 2: They won twenty seven to sixteen. Oklahoma State was favored 436 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 2: by three and a half against my clones, Iowa State. 437 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 2: They won twenty four to twenty one. So they had 438 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 2: him pretty well nailed down last week. I mean, mute 439 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 2: the laptop there you do with that information? What you 440 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 2: want to quarterback is finally not a question at least 441 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 2: in terms of who's going to start for Oklahoma State. 442 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders is back had a touchdown pass couple in 443 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 2: perceptions last week. 444 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 1: Let's just assume he knocked his rust off. 445 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:07,400 Speaker 2: Secondly, this Texas defensive line figures to be a little 446 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 2: bit of a matchup issue here, So I don't necessarily 447 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 2: envision Oklahoma State moving the ball up and down the field. 448 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 1: They really haven't been that all year. 449 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 2: This is a game again, it's kind of a kind 450 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 2: of a style clash in terms of what you used 451 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 2: to be used to seeing Oklahoma State do. They'll lean 452 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 2: on defense, They'll be totally fine doing that. Dare I 453 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 2: say Mike Gundhy will be comfortable punting if he needs to. 454 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: I do. 455 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 2: Dare say that possessions are going to be at a 456 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 2: premium Saturday. And so I want you to ask yourself, 457 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 2: because I already asked myself this. 458 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 1: This is why I kicked our model to the curb 459 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: on this game. 460 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 2: In a game where possessions are at a premium, maybe 461 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 2: you got midway through a fourth quarter, a tight game, 462 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,159 Speaker 2: one possession. Who do you trust to be more disciplined? 463 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 2: Who do you trust to be more procedurally sound? Who 464 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 2: do you trust to grab a competitive game late? That 465 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 2: answer is not Texas for me. I hate to tell 466 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 2: you that's not Texas. I think it's Oklahoma State Cowboys 467 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 2: to win, and I will take them to cover. Missouri 468 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 2: is at Florida Saturday. Keep in mind Georgia Florida is 469 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 2: next week. If you need another indication of why those 470 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,479 Speaker 2: lines may be a bit lower than you think they 471 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 2: should be. Missouri's at Florida. Florida is favored by thirteen. 472 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 2: This is a seven thirty Eastern time kickoff on either 473 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,439 Speaker 2: SEC Network or like one of the alternate channels they 474 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 2: have there. 475 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: Defense should be much improved. 476 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 2: I'm saying that only because it just stands to reason 477 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 2: couldn't get much worse, and you've had a three week layoff. 478 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 2: But I do want to stress for those of you 479 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 2: unfamiliar with how this whole thing works behind the scenes, 480 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 2: it's not like Florida has been getting after it on 481 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,679 Speaker 2: the practice field. They just had their first practice in 482 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 2: two weeks Monday, so they haven't been on the practice 483 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 2: field work and every day. I'm sure they've tried to 484 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 2: get some mental reps in. I'm sure they've been going 485 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 2: back and forth on Zoom meetings. I don't know necessarily 486 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 2: how much improvement it's fair for me to expect here, 487 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 2: but yet I still do expect it, and I hope 488 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 2: I see it now. The question mark here is on 489 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 2: the offensive side, because I think a lot of you, 490 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 2: at least according to the predictions I've looked at, a 491 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,719 Speaker 2: lot of you, are kind of assuming, well, this Florida 492 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 2: offense will pick up right where it left off. Maybe 493 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 2: it will, But we've also observed teams that have had 494 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 2: to inadvertently take a few weeks off. Sometimes they have 495 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 2: a little rust issue. Fortunately for Florida, Missouri, probably not 496 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 2: an offense is going to run away from you, even 497 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,479 Speaker 2: if you have struggles early. But I'll tell you what 498 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 2: they do Missouri. What they do is they force you 499 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 2: to be assignment sound, and that's not necessarily been the 500 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 2: hallmark of Florida defensively this year so far. If they 501 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 2: can be assignment sound, they got the athletes to put 502 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 2: fairly tight clamps on Missouri. If they don't, they can 503 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,719 Speaker 2: make you look foolish. They did it to LSU. They 504 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 2: can make you look foolish. That offense at Missouri I 505 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 2: still feel like it has a second gear that they 506 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,640 Speaker 2: haven't necessarily hit yet. With Connor Bezolac at quarterback, it's 507 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 2: a top thirty passing offense. I don't need to tell 508 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 2: you what Florida's passing defense has done this year so far. 509 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 2: Which first is more likely? 510 00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: I guess? Is my question for this game. 511 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 2: Is it more likely that Florida's defense has a standout performance? 512 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 2: Is it more likely that Missouri's offense has a standout performance? 513 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 2: I leaned Florida here, and our model backs it up. 514 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 2: It's not a strong lean, but I took Florida and 515 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 2: I ended up taking Florida minus thirteen. Not officially, I 516 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 2: wouldn't put a dime on this game, but that's the 517 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,479 Speaker 2: way we lean here. How about Arkansas at Texas A 518 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 2: and M. We certainly had a strong lean in this game. 519 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 2: It's another Saturday, seven thirty Eastern timekick on SEC Network, 520 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 2: classic good news, bad news situation here for Arkansas. The 521 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 2: good news is right now the Hogs are third in 522 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 2: all of FBS at thirteen turnovers forced. That's great, that's wonderful. 523 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,639 Speaker 2: What did we tell you last week when we were 524 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 2: picking against Kentucky. We do not believe there is any 525 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:46,439 Speaker 2: skill in predicting carryover of turnover margin. There's just not 526 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 2: week to week. So it's great when you force them. 527 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 2: It is wonderful. You don't count on that showing up 528 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 2: every week. You're gonna get burned by it. The way 529 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,400 Speaker 2: Arkansas competes in this game is not by forcing turnovers. 530 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 2: If that happens, that's a bonus, that's a cheery on time. 531 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 2: And I'm not hating on them defensively at all. I'm 532 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 2: just telling you, Felipe Franks has got to win this 533 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 2: game for Arkansas. That's how that's going to have to happen. Now, 534 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 2: I can tell you our numbers love Texas A and M. 535 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,399 Speaker 2: They're coming out of a buy, they're rested, and so 536 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 2: I mean, you know Arkansas as well. But I love 537 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,160 Speaker 2: Texas A and M in this game. And if I'm wrong, 538 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,400 Speaker 2: I'm wrong. I think it is a very very good 539 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 2: by spot for them. Not only are we taking A 540 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 2: and M to win, we're taking A and M to cover. 541 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 2: We got it at minus ten and made it our 542 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 2: best bet. 543 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,120 Speaker 1: Of the week. And again, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. 544 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,199 Speaker 2: Finally, here Notre Dame minus twenty at Georgia Tech not 545 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 2: going to break the game down. I just wanted to 546 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 2: point out some situationals here because our numbers love Georgia Tech. 547 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:38,200 Speaker 1: This week. 548 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're taking the Jackets plus twenty. Here, we're taking 549 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 2: Notre Dame to win outright, But it's one of those 550 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 2: back to back road spots. They looked ultra impressive did 551 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 2: Notre Dame on the road against pitt last week, and 552 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 2: now they're back out on the road. They also had 553 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 2: that Clemson game on deck. So if you figure to 554 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 2: try and pick out a less than ideal performance, maybe 555 00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 2: a little bit of a sloppy, get through it type 556 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 2: game sleeper, this is probably it for Notre Dame. 557 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 1: I think that's what our model picked up on. 558 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 2: So we took Notre Dame to win, but we took 559 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 2: Georgia Tech plus twenty. And those are our picks for 560 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 2: Week nine of the college football season. Now for our 561 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 2: official plays to wrap the show up, as we do 562 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 2: this time every Thursday, here we go. The Ramen Noodle 563 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 2: Express is currently chugging along at just above sixty one 564 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 2: percent on the season. We don't want to rest there. 565 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 2: We want to be perfect every week and we're gonna 566 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 2: try and do it again this week. So I already 567 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 2: handed out some of these. I want to remind you 568 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 2: make sure you're following me on Twitter. I'm going to 569 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 2: tell you exactly why. When I get to the end 570 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 2: of this, you already miss some value today if you're 571 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 2: not following me there, As I told you Sunday night, 572 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 2: our best bet this is not to be valued above 573 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 2: the other plays. By the way, just as the first 574 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 2: one we hand it out Texas A and M minus ten. 575 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 2: I want to reiterate I do not encourage you to 576 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,199 Speaker 2: hand pick these. I do not encourage you to value 577 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 2: one over the other. I encourage you to either take 578 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 2: none of them or take all of them, get them 579 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,719 Speaker 2: at the numbers we give them to you at, and 580 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 2: bet them equally. Otherwise I have people come complaining to 581 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 2: me afterwards, and I say, what do you We went 582 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 2: four and two today, What are you complaining about? So anyway, 583 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,959 Speaker 2: Texas A and M minus ten, Georgia Tech plus twenty, 584 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 2: these are numbers we already gave you. Here are the 585 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 2: games that I handed out today. LSU versus Auburn. We 586 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 2: wanted to get sixty five and a half. That's why 587 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,439 Speaker 2: we waited and we didn't take anything. Tuesday night we 588 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 2: got the number we wanted. We're taking the under at 589 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 2: sixty five and a half. I think there is a 590 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 2: chance that the run pass ratios in that game for 591 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 2: both teams are very disproportionate, and amount of total possessions 592 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 2: as a result is not high enough to get that 593 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 2: thing over. We'll see Georgia minus sixteen and a half 594 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,359 Speaker 2: and Louisville plus three and a half. Now, let me 595 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 2: talk to you for a second about this Georgia game. 596 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 2: At Georgia game, I gave out early this afternoon, it 597 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,159 Speaker 2: started to move. I wanted to get it before it 598 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 2: hit seventeen. I handed it out on Twitter at late kick. Josh, 599 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 2: if you were following me, you got it, and you're 600 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 2: good if you didn't. It's sitting at seventeen right now. 601 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 2: And while we still like it at seventeen, Georgia win 602 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 2: in by I think twenty one ish. Even though we 603 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 2: still like it at seventeen, we gave it out at 604 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 2: sixteen and a half. 605 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: Obviously a lot more line value there. 606 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 2: So in summary, Texas A and M minus ten, Georgia 607 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 2: Tech plus twenty, LSU Auburn under sixty five and. 608 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 1: A half, we're taking Louisville plus three and a half. 609 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 2: They're at home against Virginia Tech, and we are taking 610 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 2: the Georgia Bulldogs minus sixteen and a half on the 611 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 2: road against Kentucky. There is a very sneaky good late 612 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 2: afternoon slate this weekend. I know there are a lot 613 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 2: of big games on deck this time. Next week will 614 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 2: be all in on Georgia Florida, will be all in 615 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 2: on Notre Dame Clemson. But I mean, think about what 616 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 2: Arkansas has the capability of doing this weekend. Think about 617 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 2: potentially the unforeseen mid fourth quarter upset alerts you could 618 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 2: get with Missouri Florida or Kentucky Georgia. What happens either 619 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 2: way in that LSU Auburn game. I was doing radio 620 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 2: with Mark Ryan today on ESPN Upstate, and I used 621 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 2: to wrestle Mania seventeen reference remember it vividly one of 622 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,160 Speaker 2: the best pre match build ups of all time. And 623 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 2: as you've got Steve Austin in the rock walking down 624 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 2: the corridor in the Houston Astrodome to the ring, you 625 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 2: got Paul Hayman saying this is the time, it's the 626 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 2: match that both men need to win and neither man 627 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 2: can afford to lose. That was only nineteen years ago. 628 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 2: So the point is, neither man can afford to lose 629 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 2: that game. They both want to win it, neither one 630 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,479 Speaker 2: of them can afford to lose it. What are they 631 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 2: saying about Edward's arn if he's already lost three games 632 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 2: before he even plays Florida or Alabama? What are they 633 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,719 Speaker 2: saying about gus ma Alzon if he loses a game Saturday. 634 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 2: I can tell you what they'd be saying. They'd be saying, 635 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 2: you ought to be one in five. We're like a 636 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 2: one in five team right now, and that would be 637 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 2: his own fan base, not to mention what everyone else 638 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 2: would say. 639 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 1: So could be a sleepwalker of a Saturday. 640 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 2: I tend to think it's far more likely we have 641 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 2: a lot of right now unforeseen drama coming Saturday. The 642 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 2: skill or lack thereof is don't really know where it's 643 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 2: going to be. So that's why we're going to be 644 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 2: here Sunday night for you to break it all down. 645 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 2: Also make sure you follow me on Twitter. We have 646 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 2: a lot of fun there on Saturdays. I'm not necessarily 647 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,720 Speaker 2: a full game live tweeter, but I. 648 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: Drop in there. 649 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 2: I drop a few dozen comments probably on Saturday, not 650 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 2: to mention, we may not be done with our official 651 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 2: best bets for this weekend. Frequently I'll put something out 652 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 2: on Friday or Saturday morning. No guarantees, but follow me 653 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 2: just in case it happens at Late Kick Josh for director, Colin, 654 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 2: for Tani and Jordan. On the podcast side, I'm Josh 655 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 2: Pat Thanks for watching Late Kick Live. 656 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 1: Have a great weekend and God bless