1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day since coronavirus 2 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: was declared a global pandemic. Our main story in Mexico. 3 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen is raging out of control, but the country's 4 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: health system has been failing its citizens for decades. Today 5 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 1: a dispatch from the country's capital where patients fear the 6 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: hospital almost as much as the disease. But first, here's 7 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: what happened today. Treasury Secretary Stephen Nuchin rejected the idea 8 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: of rolling back the reopening of the economy even if 9 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: there is another surge in coronavirus cases. His remarks came 10 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:58,639 Speaker 1: in an interview today with CNBC. We can't shut down 11 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: the economy again. I think we've learned that if you 12 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: shut down the economy, you're going to create more damage, 13 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: and not just economic damage. But there are there are 14 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: other areas, and we've talked about this of medical problems 15 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 1: and everything else that get put on hold. Minuction said 16 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: we could avoid another shutdown because COVID nineteen testing and 17 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: contact tracing are improving. He also said officials understand more 18 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: about how to contain outbreaks, but contact tracing efforts aren't 19 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: turning out to be a perfect solution, even in countries 20 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: that are investing in them. In the first week of 21 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: contact tracing in England, tracers didn't get in touch with 22 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: the third of new cases referred to them. The country's 23 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: Department of Health and Social Care said in a statement 24 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: that the teams identified nearly thirty two thousand contacts in 25 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: the first week. Around twenty seven thousand were advised to 26 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: self isolate. Finally, Moderna's vaccine trial is moving fast. The 27 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: company said it had selected a dose for a final 28 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: stage clinical trial of its coronavirus vaccine that should begin 29 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: in July. The final study, which will include thirty thousand people, 30 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: will be conducted in collaboration with a National Institute of 31 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 1: Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US. It's primary goal 32 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: will be to show that the vaccine prevents people from 33 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 1: developing symptoms of COVID nineteen and now our main story. 34 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: The coronavirus is hitting Latin America in ways unseen in 35 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: the developed world. One place that's seen a devastating surgeon 36 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 1: cases is Mexico. But what makes Mexico's outbreak worse is 37 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: that it's savaging a health care system that was already inadequate. 38 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: Doctors and nurses in Mexico say they lacked the most 39 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: basic of protective gear like masks and gloves. Hospitals are 40 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:14,679 Speaker 1: at capacity. In Mexico City, more than twenty thousand doctors, nurses, 41 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: and hospital staff have caught the virus. It's another grim 42 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: reminder that the illness is spiraling out of control. I 43 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: spoke with Naha Katan, a Bloomberg reporter in Mexico City 44 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: who has watched the crisis unfold. She talked about what 45 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: happens when a crisis hits a system that was unprepared 46 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: and underfunded in the best of times. What is the 47 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: situation in Mexico right now with COVID nineteen. So as 48 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: of last week, we saw a lot of record new cases, 49 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: new new death toll records, including deaths rising above one 50 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 1: thousand in one day. The government says it didn't all 51 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: happen in one day, and that there's a lag, but 52 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: the fact is that the cases were coming in, you know, 53 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: at a at a faster pace, and the government itself 54 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: said we're now at at this peak, you know, pandemic. 55 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: We're at this crisis time and at the same time, 56 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 1: hospital specifically in Mexico City. We're at capacity. So I 57 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 1: think a big question is if we haven't seen that 58 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: full wave actually come in and be hospitalized yet, because 59 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: we just saw the initial numbers and we don't know 60 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: where they are on the timeline. What do you do 61 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: when you have instead of eighty percent capacity? What happens 62 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: if that capacity goes up and we lose space in 63 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: the hospital system. And that kind of brings me to 64 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: the Mexico City public hospital system. They've they've been they've 65 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: been so bad for so long that even compared to 66 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: Latin America, Mexico has one of the worst public health 67 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: care systems. It spends the least on health as a 68 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: percentage of GDP than every other Latin American country except 69 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: for Peru and Venezuela. That was data I found from 70 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 1: the World Bank. And we don't even know when this 71 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 1: is over, and we're already at capacity in Mexico City, 72 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: So there's just a lot of red flags going up here. 73 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: Has there been any attempt physically with regard to hospitals 74 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 1: and this capacity issue. Has there been any any discussion, 75 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: any proposal little to try and address some of these 76 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: very significant capacity concerns within the hospitals, Oh absolutely, I 77 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: mean the government has has built hospitals. Well, there's one 78 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 1: in Mexico City that is kind of a makeshift, you know, 79 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: health facility that that was built very quickly. Mexico has 80 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:59,119 Speaker 1: highed thousands of healthcare workers according to official numbers, and 81 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: they've made a huge push from the US to China 82 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,559 Speaker 1: to get ventilators brought here as quickly as possible, because 83 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 1: we only had about five thousand in the whole country. 84 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: I know there's a push being made to improve the situation. 85 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: It's just a question of whether it's too little, too late, 86 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 1: of whether the cases will overwhelm this attempt to to 87 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: improve things. And the one sign we have is just 88 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: that Mexico's healthcare workers infected by COVID did double in 89 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: two weeks from you know, eleven thousands to twenty to 90 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: a little over twenty thou and deaths have reached close 91 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: to what we've seen in the US, which is where 92 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: there have been many, many more cases than in Mexico. 93 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: So that doesn't bode well for you know, Mexico's attempts 94 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: to really to really overhaul the system as quickly as 95 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: it's trying to do. I mean, I think the attempts 96 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 1: are are good and an important, but it's not clear 97 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:02,600 Speaker 1: how much they can do in such a short time. 98 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: What's the status of Mexico in terms of social distancing 99 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: policies or lockdown enforcement. I mean officially, Mexico started reopening 100 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: actually mid May in certain parts of the country. At 101 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: the start of June, it's reopening further. Basically, they're they're 102 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: making sectors like the automobile sector and construction considered essential activity, 103 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: so people who work in those sectors can leave their 104 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: homes and go to their places of work if the 105 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: companies have the security protocol set up. And what we've 106 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: seen since then is that there has been a spike 107 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: across Mexico in activity, even though unlike other countries, this 108 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: beginning of a reopening is happening before Mexico actually reaches 109 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: its peak. Uh. And that's caused a lot of questions 110 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: among um some health experts in the fields. Mexico City 111 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: was at the heart of the H one and one 112 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: outbreak UM several years ago, and I'm just wondering has 113 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: that informed Mexico's response to COVID nineteen at all. It has, 114 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: you know, they're they're using this Sentinnel model, which is 115 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: a way of projecting how many cases there really are 116 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: without doing testing among the entire population. So there's limited 117 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: testing and the government is saying, you know, this is 118 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: what worked for us in the past, but again critics say, 119 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: we need to test much more broadly. We don't really 120 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: know what's happening. You know. There are the news reports 121 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: and others coming out with figures death tolls that might 122 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: might be much higher and cases that are that are 123 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: definitely higher. It's actually raised a lot of questions about 124 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 1: the data in Mexico. In general, Mexico is looking pretty grim, 125 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: but the entire Latin American region is now considered the epicenter. 126 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: The World Health Organization last week said that Brazil, Mexico 127 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: and other countries here account for more than one million cases. 128 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: They don't really see a peak, no stabilization really coming 129 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,199 Speaker 1: at this point, you know. And that's happening at the 130 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: same time as a lot of statements out of the 131 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 1: government suggests that things are much better. So you kind 132 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: of get, on one hand information from the government that 133 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: makes it that makes you think that maybe things are 134 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: finally coming under control, maybe even as soon as as 135 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: early as this week, but there's so much data from 136 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: weeks past, and so much so many kind of record 137 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: breaking death tolls, daily death tolls that have happened recently, 138 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: that it's just not clear where Mexico is on the 139 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: you know, in the pandemic curve. And like other countries 140 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 1: in the region in Latin America, Mexico faces poor health 141 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: care systems and very few social safety nets because well, 142 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: Mexico was slow to lockdown. They waited until the end 143 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: of March, and the enforcement has been pretty lax in 144 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: the lockdown because companies are just strongly urged to close 145 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: that there's no there's a force shutdown, which is what 146 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: the president has said. He's he's persuading companies, he's not 147 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: forcing them to shut and people are returning to the streets. 148 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: They have no money to eat, and there is very 149 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: little money being spent on the economic recovery. The government 150 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: has said it doesn't want to go further into debt, 151 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: so it's not really doling out the kind of unemployment 152 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 1: insurance or um you know, aid packages to the poor 153 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: that you might be seeing another in other countries. And 154 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 1: and this does raise a good question that I think 155 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 1: you've been touching on but maybe if we could maybe 156 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: unpack even more. You know, obviously there's been extreme economic 157 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 1: fallout from COVID nineteen globally, but with specific reference to Mexico, 158 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: what has been the economic fallout from COVID nineteen. The 159 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: official jobs lost something around five is just kind of 160 00:10:55,679 --> 00:11:00,199 Speaker 1: a sliver of of what's really happening because there's whole 161 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: informal sector and very complex ways of measuring unemployment here. 162 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: But there was one study also from a public agency 163 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:16,719 Speaker 1: about twelve million people either losing their jobs or not 164 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: working because they're on furlough or just not working at 165 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: that moment as of April. And that's that's a very 166 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: big number. And one of the deputy governors of the 167 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 1: Central Bank wrote along article where he argues that Mexico's 168 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 1: labor crisis is far worse than the labor crisis in 169 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:41,959 Speaker 1: the US. Some people within the president's own party saying 170 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: we need to go into further debt so that we 171 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: can pay for the recovery and help the poor. And 172 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: again that's not something that's that's shifting very very extensively, 173 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: that the government is sticking to its message that it 174 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: will do things through austerity. Through budget cuts and not 175 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: through overspending and you know, bailouts to companies for example. 176 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: Has there been any broader requests or asks of the 177 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: government in terms of what steps they need to be 178 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: taking in terms of maybe flattening that curve. The one 179 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 1: constant is testing, testing, testing. There needs to be more testing. 180 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: That's the suggestion coming from all sides. And it's it's 181 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: the one area where Mexico is not it's not really boosting, 182 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: it's testing numbers. That was Nahakatan and that's our show today. 183 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: You can find naha story on the situation in Mexico 184 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: City and how it has affected her own family on 185 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. And for coverage of the outbreak from 186 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 1: one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot 187 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: com slash Corona of Virus and if you like the show, 188 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 189 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 190 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 191 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me 192 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Naha Katan. 193 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:29,199 Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Citrin. Our editors are Francesca Levi 194 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:34,239 Speaker 1: and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 195 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.