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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host.

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Speaker 1: Today, Brendan Glasheen back with Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward.

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Speaker 1: That needs time for a UFC betting preview times here

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Speaker 1: for UFC three hundred available on pay per view.

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Speaker 3: Big Fight, Big Card, A Big Fights. I should pluralize fight.

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Speaker 1: We get the main event, We'll start there, also work

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Speaker 1: through the guys Fight of the night comine event as well,

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Speaker 1: with some history going on in the comaane this week,

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Speaker 1: favorite Underdogs props, and then a best bet final bet

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Speaker 1: from Zillo and Billy Ward. Billy's got his right up

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Speaker 1: at Actionnetwork dot com as UFC luck ratings, which we

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Speaker 1: will mix in throughout the show, and Zilla's got his

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Speaker 1: content as well up at Action Network. All right, guys,

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Speaker 1: let's do the main event first. Alex Pahetta against Jamal

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Speaker 1: Hill on the main card. Right now, I'm seeing Pereira

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Speaker 1: at Para at minus one thirty Hill at plus one ten.

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Speaker 3: So some movement throughout the week.

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Speaker 1: And I know you guys teased this last week when

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Speaker 1: we wrapped up the card last week. We did a

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Speaker 1: quick little two minutes on this, So Sorillo given the

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Speaker 1: price where it's currently at on the money line, first

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Speaker 1: of all, first and foremost, what do you make of

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Speaker 1: the fight, and then how would you like to approach

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Speaker 1: betting it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this has moved in pihera open closer to minus

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Speaker 2: one sixties, so there's been about a five percent adjustment

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Speaker 2: towards Hill. And I said at the end of the

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Speaker 2: podcast last week, if Hill was not coming off of

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Speaker 2: Achilles surgery, I do think he would be the favorite

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Speaker 2: in this fight. I'd probably handicap him as a favorite

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Speaker 2: in this fight. But he's coming back nine months after

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Speaker 2: an achilles rupture, not just what's the tear, a erupture,

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Speaker 2: and that is the minimum timeline that you need to

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Speaker 2: return to athletic competition after an Achilles' tear, So coming

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Speaker 2: back as quickly as he can probably wasn't able to

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Speaker 2: get the cardio work in that he normally would in

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Speaker 2: the lead up to the fight, just because of the

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Speaker 2: nature of the injury. That's not something you're going to

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Speaker 2: be able to run on. Jamal Hill has a very skinny,

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Speaker 2: fat physique to begin with, I don't mean that disrespectfully.

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Speaker 2: That's just what his physique is. And you compare him

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Speaker 2: to Pehera, who is much more muscular, much more shredded.

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Speaker 2: And I also think there's a bit of a false

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Speaker 2: information about Hill's height. I do think the Hera is

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Speaker 2: a little bit taller. If you go back to Jamal

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Speaker 2: Hill's basketball profile, he's listed at six to three. When

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Speaker 2: they were standing next to each other yesterday, it seemed

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Speaker 2: like Alex is a touch bigger and a touch taller.

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Speaker 2: I said, Jamal's very powerful. He's very capable of landing

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Speaker 2: a knockout blow here. I think both guys are very

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Speaker 2: open and very hittable defensively, and I do think we

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Speaker 2: see largely a striking matchup. I'd actually be surprised if

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Speaker 2: either one of them grappled. He Hill has shown very

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Speaker 2: good defensive grappling in his recent fights, but he's never

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Speaker 2: attempted an offensive takedown of the UFC. He does have

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Speaker 2: the cockiness and the swagger of a guy who is

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Speaker 2: probably not going to attempt to takedowns in this fight unless

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Speaker 2: he's concussed and you know, just reactively trying to survive

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Speaker 2: at the fight. But do you expect the striking fight.

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Speaker 2: He'll should have the better hands. Harrow should have the

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Speaker 2: better kicks and the better footwork. He's much more technical,

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Speaker 2: but I think Jamal's long punches are going to prose

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Speaker 2: the problem for Alex in boxing range. He's probably the

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Speaker 2: faster man as well, but Pa Haro only needs one.

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Speaker 2: We see it time and time again. He's just looking

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Speaker 2: to time that check left hook, and when he gets

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Speaker 2: you with it, he tends to put you out. He'll

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Speaker 2: even just spam it over and over, you know, and

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Speaker 2: try to land it like he did against Urie, until

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Speaker 2: he eventually clips you. His leg kicks are also going

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Speaker 2: to be a huge key in this fight. Now we'll

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Speaker 2: see if he's able to get them off. Because Hill

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Speaker 2: likes to fight out of a southpaws stance as opposed

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Speaker 2: to orthodox. It's much easier to kick your opponent's calf

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Speaker 2: when you're fighting out of the same stance. It's much

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Speaker 2: more difficult when you're fighting southwab versus orthodox. So I

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Speaker 2: think the leg kicks are going to be a major

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Speaker 2: key in this fight, especially given Hill's achilles injury. I

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Speaker 2: like Pehera on the money line and about minus one

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Speaker 2: thirty I would bet that up to that number, but

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Speaker 2: I'm probably going to wait for a better price considering

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Speaker 2: the line has continually moved towards Hill and there seems

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Speaker 2: to be a lot of support for Peia, so I'm

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Speaker 2: assuming there is some sharp money on the Jamal Hill side.

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Speaker 2: But I think the footwork, I think the Achilles injury,

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Speaker 2: and I think potentially the cardial later in the fight,

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Speaker 2: with Hill not running as much in the lead up

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Speaker 2: to this is all going to lend itself to Alex Pajera.

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Speaker 2: The one thing I do want to mention and I

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Speaker 2: do like this fight to end inside the distance. If

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Speaker 2: I'm leaning to any fight to end inside the distance,

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Speaker 2: I probably want to bet it. This weekend, the UFC

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Speaker 2: bumped up the fight bonuses for the performance bonuses for

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Speaker 2: the UFC three hundred card to three hundred thousand dollars,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of these fighters are probably making fifty

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Speaker 2: and fifty to fifty fight fifty to win. I'm sure

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Speaker 2: that champions the former champions on this card are making

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Speaker 2: more than that, but the fighters lower on the prelims

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Speaker 2: certainly not making as much money as the fighters on

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Speaker 2: the main card, and they have a chance to five

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Speaker 2: x there you know normal contract by winning a performance bonus,

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Speaker 2: where normally it would just be doubling their money. So

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Speaker 2: I think we're going to see some very aggressive performances tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: some absolutely wild fights. These these fighters are going to

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Speaker 2: be going to war looking for that three hundred k

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Speaker 2: and you know this fight is heavily juiced to end

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Speaker 2: inside the distance regardless of about minus four hundred, but

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Speaker 2: I do think it gets there at some point. The

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Speaker 2: one argument I would make in Jabal Hill's favor, probably

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Speaker 2: more durable to the head than we've seen from Alex Pajera,

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Speaker 2: who's been wobbled they're knocked out in recent fights. Really

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Speaker 2: only seen Hill wobbled once. Other than that, he seems

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Speaker 2: fairly durable. But I think the calf or that, you know,

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Speaker 2: the kicks and the achilles is kind of what neutralizes

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Speaker 2: the durability when you look top to bottom of their bodies.

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Speaker 2: So Pahara this side for me. But if this was

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Speaker 2: a year ago, I'd probably be taking help Hill.

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Speaker 1: On the stage, Billy was talking a lot of smack,

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Speaker 1: said he was gonna whoop that ass to Pahera. So

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Speaker 1: based on your right up and Sean spoke to this Billy,

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Speaker 1: you still thought Pehera that he's undervalued.

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Speaker 3: H are you on? Are you in agreement with Sean?

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Speaker 3: You wanna do? You wanna wait? I also would be

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Speaker 3: curious for both.

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Speaker 1: Of you to weigh in on the idea of a

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Speaker 1: live of a live play situation.

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Speaker 3: Billy, you can go first on this.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was. I was hoping we'd get a better price.

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Speaker 5: It kind of seemed early in the week, like when

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Speaker 5: I did the luck ratings, that we were going to

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Speaker 5: keep seeing that movement, maybe get paida one point fifteen

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Speaker 5: one ten something like that.

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Speaker 4: Didn't happen.

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Speaker 5: I tweeted out Tuesday or Wednesday that the minus one

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Speaker 5: twenty five I got done was probably about as good

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Speaker 5: as it's going to get. Obviously not a big difference

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Speaker 5: on minus one thirty. I'll take that as well. Mostly

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Speaker 5: agree with Sean and everything. You know, he said better

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Speaker 5: footwork from Beta, and that's better footwork than a healthy

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Speaker 5: Jamal Hill. We have no idea what the footwork's going

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Speaker 5: to be like this time. The other thing Hill does

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Speaker 5: have that great long chuck hook, great long straight shot.

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Speaker 5: He's actually got an inch reached disadvantage against Alex Bejeda,

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Speaker 5: which is typically not the case for him. You know,

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Speaker 5: he's had it in previous fights. He fought uh, Johnny Walker,

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Speaker 5: who's huge, but normally a guy who gets a reach

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Speaker 5: advantage and fight on the outside.

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Speaker 4: That's not really going to work.

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Speaker 5: Against Behto because he doesn't have the reach and if

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Speaker 5: you hang out out there, he's just gonna get his

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Speaker 5: calf obliterated by probably the best calf kicker in MMA

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Speaker 5: right now. So pretty much lockstep Withzrillo. If we knew

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Speaker 5: Hill was healthy, I would probably take either guy at

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Speaker 5: plus money. Kind of how I view it, there's enough

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Speaker 5: concern about the injury. I don't think Jamal Hill wanted

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Speaker 5: to come back this early. You know, this main event

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Speaker 5: was like the last cart or the last fight they

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Speaker 5: put on this card. Seemed like the UFC was kind

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Speaker 5: of reaching for a big fight. Hill even said like

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Speaker 5: he wasn't expecting this call, didn't think it was going

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Speaker 5: to happen. Kind Of seems to me like he was

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Speaker 5: probably targeting like a July or something somewhere in their return.

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Speaker 5: But we got to remember he didn't get any pay

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Speaker 5: per view points as a champion because he never defended

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Speaker 5: his belt. You only get that extra money when you're

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Speaker 5: defending the belt, been out of action for a year,

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Speaker 5: got a ton of kids. This feels like maybe they

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Speaker 5: offered him a bigger check than usual and he kind

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Speaker 5: of couldn't say no, even knowing that it's not a

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Speaker 5: deal for his career. So with that said, as to

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Speaker 5: the live stuff, don't have a great read like. Both

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Speaker 5: guys have good cardio or good energy management. Neither of

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Speaker 5: them really over swing too hard, so they do pretty

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Speaker 5: well going deep into fights. But if we see one guy,

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Speaker 5: probably he'll limping around because he got his leg kicked.

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Speaker 4: Obviously that would be the.

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Speaker 5: Biggest thing to look for, but not, in my opinion,

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Speaker 5: a great live betting spot. And also trying to live

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Speaker 5: bet at two in the morning from a B dubs

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Speaker 5: or whatever it is not the ideal situation either, So

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Speaker 5: we got that to contend.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't think it's a good live betting

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Speaker 2: card at all. There's only a horn fight, and we'll

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Speaker 2: get to it in a bit that I circled as

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Speaker 2: a potential live bet, But other than that, there's really

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Speaker 2: no fights on this card that I'm particularly targeting from

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Speaker 2: a live betting perspective, so I expect violence. I like

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Speaker 2: the fight tend inside the distance props on a lot

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Speaker 2: of these fights. I don't like a lot of the

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Speaker 2: overs on these fights. I was considering leading to and over.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to another one of those later. But like

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Speaker 2: if I was on the fence about taking an over, no,

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Speaker 2: if I was on the fence about taking the fight,

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Speaker 2: tend inside the distance or the under oppstely given these

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Speaker 2: increased bonuses. So yeah, I think we're going to see

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Speaker 2: some wild fights on Saturday, and I don't plan on

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Speaker 2: having many books open for live betting purposes until the

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Speaker 2: BMF title fight, which we'll talk about a minute.

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Speaker 3: Okay, very good.

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Speaker 1: So that's the light heavyweight main event between Pehera and Hill.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the strawweight title, women's strawweight. We've got

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Speaker 1: the strawweight queen, Jangwai Lee and number one yon Cho Nan.

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Speaker 1: This is some history here for the UFC. This has

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Speaker 1: got a lot of legs to it leading up. Looking

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Speaker 1: at the current price points on the money line, way

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Speaker 1: Lee is the significant favorite at minus four eighty five

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Speaker 1: and Chow Nan is at plus three seventy zorilla.

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Speaker 3: Same question here, how do you assess the breakdown?

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Speaker 1: I'm not imagining, if you like the favorite, you're going

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Speaker 1: to play the money line, So what are some ways

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Speaker 1: you can go about this one.

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Speaker 2: I probably would have laid minus through twenty five on

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Speaker 2: Jang I just it was gone before I was able

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Speaker 2: to bet it and blew out to minus four to

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Speaker 2: fifty minus four eighty later in the week, and that's

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Speaker 2: where it is currently. But yeah, I think jang minus

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Speaker 2: three twenty five is probably a good number. She has

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Speaker 2: massive grappling upside of this fight. While she isn't always

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Speaker 2: proactive in pursuing takedown, she did pursue it proactively against Mandaleimosh.

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Speaker 2: I would imagine at some point she's going to proactively

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Speaker 2: pursue the grappling here because Yan is terrible off of

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Speaker 2: her back, and once Jangueli gets her to the ground,

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Speaker 2: when she puts her flat at her back, it's the

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Speaker 2: end of the round, if not the end of the fight.

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Speaker 2: If I were able to bet this fight to end

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Speaker 2: with Jang in mount, either a positional TKO or finding

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Speaker 2: some sort of submission right rear naked choke is as

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Speaker 2: Yan rolls to her back from back mount. That's how

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Speaker 2: I think this fight ends ultimately is with Yan on

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Speaker 2: the ground Jang either choking her out or pounding her

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Speaker 2: out with ground and pound. Unfortunately, that's not something you

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Speaker 2: can bet, So if I'm betting this fight, it's probably

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Speaker 2: Jang by submission at plus five hundred, just because of

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Speaker 2: the positions that I think she'll get to dominantly if

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Speaker 2: she's going to win the fight. However, I do think

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Speaker 2: it's probably positional TKO and ground and pounds, So if

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Speaker 2: I'm including a bed here, it's likely in a round

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Speaker 2: robin Jang by sub plus five hundred. In a round robin,

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Speaker 2: I think is kind of a fun way to play it,

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Speaker 2: and you know, a fun little juiced up piece to

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Speaker 2: get to your round robin tickets, just to inflate everything.

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Speaker 2: But this is a difficult fight to bet. I probably

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Speaker 2: initially would have leaned over just by by nature of

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Speaker 2: them being fellow countrywomen, and maybe Jang like showing giving

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Speaker 2: her a little bit too much respect and striking it

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Speaker 2: out a bit longer than she should. You know, this

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Speaker 2: is a very competitive striking fight if if Jang chooses

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Speaker 2: to strike with her, but anytime she wants to hit

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Speaker 2: the eye win button and take her down, she probably can.

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Speaker 2: So very deserving favorite not interested in the underdog whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: I'd be looking for, you know, juice your ways or

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Speaker 2: shorter ways to play jang as opposed to minus four

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Speaker 2: to fifty.

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Speaker 1: So we're a low touched on and inside the distance

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Speaker 1: play on the on the men's side, what about you, Billy?

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Speaker 1: Similar sentiments here for these strawweight title in the women's.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, not a spot. I'm you know, clamor all over

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Speaker 4: myself to bet.

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Speaker 5: But if I had to, I do think Jang Wilee

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Speaker 5: inside the distance it minus one ten or so makes

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Speaker 5: a lot of sense. That's saying she's a roughly pick

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Speaker 5: him to finish this fight, even though she's an eighty

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Speaker 5: five ish percent favorite. That would make sense to me

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Speaker 5: in a three round fight. Five rounds is a long

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Speaker 5: time to be in there with Shang Wiley, and this

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Speaker 5: is you know, we reference the history of it and

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Speaker 5: the magnitude of it. But that's kind of the only

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Speaker 5: reason Yan john Nn has this title fight. She's only

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Speaker 5: one two in a row. She lost two fights one

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Speaker 5: two fights, all of a sudden she's in a title fight.

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Speaker 5: That's because of the you know, China verse, China angle,

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Speaker 5: and the fact that we have ros Namiunis left the division,

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Speaker 5: Yoanna Young Jajik retired.

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Speaker 4: Not a lot of great.

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Speaker 5: Contenders at one fifteen, so it's kind of just a

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Speaker 5: look we saw with Volkanovski a forty five for a while.

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Speaker 5: It's just this is kind of who we got. We

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Speaker 5: don't really expect this to be a competitive fight, but

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Speaker 5: we got to keep the champ active.

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Speaker 4: We can't just have him sitting around for forever.

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Speaker 5: So don't really think it's going to be a super

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Speaker 5: competitive fight or that Yan has much to offer. And

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Speaker 5: Tom pointed out, like the at best, it's a competitive

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Speaker 5: striking match. Now she has an advantage striking, it's like

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Speaker 5: at her best in Wiley's worst, it's about even, and

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Speaker 5: then everywhere else Wiley has a huge advantage. So love

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Speaker 5: this one for DFS. Wiley should be loaded up on

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Speaker 5: because she scores a bazillion points with all the takedowns

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Speaker 5: and striking volume and finishing equity.

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Speaker 4: From a betting standpoint.

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Speaker 5: You know, like I said, if I had to minus

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Speaker 5: one ten inside, the distance feels a little bit off

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Speaker 5: relative to her money line, but not a huge amount

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Speaker 5: where I'm going to be going big on it.

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Speaker 2: And to be clear, this is probably a fight that

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Speaker 2: I might have bet Jang by decision, you know, two

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Speaker 2: days ago, but now at these three hundred K performance bonuses,

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Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't know about that, So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: lean to the bigger plus money and five rounds is

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Speaker 2: a long time to be in there with Jang. But also,

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Speaker 2: you know, Amandalemos arrived on bottom for the entirety of

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Speaker 2: that fight, and she was gassed out completely by the

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Speaker 2: end of it too. I don't think Jang is like this,

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Speaker 2: this massively potent finisher on the ground. I don't think

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Speaker 2: she has like particularly a lead submission skills, But I

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Speaker 2: do think Jan Chennun's ground game, her defensive ground game

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Speaker 2: is pretty lacking relative to other fighters competing in championship fights.

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Speaker 5: A lot of fighters would have stopped that Lamos fight.

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Speaker 5: A lot of rafts would have stopped that Language fight

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Speaker 5: a couple of times. Though we should like that one.

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Speaker 5: I was screaming at the TV. I'm usually on the

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Speaker 5: side of like, let them play it out a little

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Speaker 5: bit longer. That's always what I wanted as a fighter,

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Speaker 5: But that one was like legitimately tough to watch. So sure,

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Speaker 5: Lamosh made it the distance, but probably shouldn't have.

320
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Speaker 1: Picking our way through the main card Billion Shawn's Fight

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Speaker 1: of the Night the BMF title Justin Gaichie, Max Holloway.

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Speaker 1: The price has shortened slightly on gae Chee around minus

323
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Speaker 1: one sixty minus one sixty five now Holloway close to

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Speaker 1: plus one thirty five plus one forty. Sean Zilla breakdown

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Speaker 1: to this one for us, please.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think Halloway's price, you know, last week plus one

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Speaker 2: eighty ish or so was playable, obviously considering a lot

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Speaker 2: of people took it. But at this point, I mean

330
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Speaker 2: I lean Holloway or pass at the current price, but

331
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Speaker 2: I'm probably not betting a pre fight. I'm interested in

332
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Speaker 2: Max live and over five rounds, Max Holloway is a

333
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,200
Speaker 2: handful for anybody. Justin Gaigie is gonna have to kick

334
00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,840
Speaker 2: his leg really hard to slow down his movement to

335
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Speaker 2: prevent Max's cardio taking over late, because I think Justin

336
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Speaker 2: has a very good cardio two, but nobody pushes the

337
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Speaker 2: pace like Max Holloway. And Justin has shown a lot

338
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Speaker 2: of vulnerability to his body and body shots in recent fights,

339
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Speaker 2: and Max is gonna hit his body repeatedly. So not

340
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Speaker 2: only does Max just have a cardio advantage on paper,

341
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Speaker 2: he's also coming up to one fifty five and doesn't

342
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Speaker 2: have to cut weight. It's gonna help that cardio two.

343
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,080
Speaker 2: The output as well, has just more output than anybody

344
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Speaker 2: on the planet. But the fact that he hits the

345
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Speaker 2: body is also probably gonna tire Gaychee out. So I

346
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Speaker 2: like Halloway live. I think Geichee has his best success

347
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Speaker 2: in the first couple of rounds, and then Holloway starts

348
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Speaker 2: to maybe amp it up, poured on in the fourth

349
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:55,400
Speaker 2: and fifth rounds, and I would give him better chance

350
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,000
Speaker 2: of winning the fourth and fifth rounds than I would

351
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Speaker 2: the first couple of rounds. So Holloway live anytime after

352
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Speaker 2: round one. Is that price blows out, I'd be interested.

353
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:04,760
Speaker 2: But I do think the power discrepancy is going to

354
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 2: be the big difference in this fight. And when we

355
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,440
Speaker 2: look at damage and judge of scoring fights based on

356
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,680
Speaker 2: damage and Hallways fight against Dustin Poier back in the

357
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,760
Speaker 2: day when he went up to face him, I think

358
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,480
Speaker 2: the power discrepancy is going to prove very massive in

359
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 2: this fight because Hallway's going to land more volume, but

360
00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,880
Speaker 2: Justin is going to land the more impactful powerful blows

361
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 2: just by nature of being the bigger man. Overall, I

362
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:31,960
Speaker 2: think Halloway's the better MMA fighter. I think he has

363
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 2: grappling upside in this fight, which sounds weird, even though

364
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,560
Speaker 2: Justin is great takedown defense, but once you get him

365
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,040
Speaker 2: on the ground, he's very lacking in terms of his

366
00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 2: defensive grappling. And if Max or this fight just somehow

367
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,000
Speaker 2: hits the ground, I think Max actually has a chance

368
00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:48,640
Speaker 2: to steal the round with top position. He did it

369
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,600
Speaker 2: against the Aio Rodriguez showed that he's continuing to improve

370
00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 2: as a fighter. But ultimately, I just think this is

371
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,520
Speaker 2: going to be an insanely high paced war. I think

372
00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 2: Halloway is extremely vulnerable to getting knocked out or knocked

373
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 2: down for the first time. He's never been knocked down

374
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 2: in the UFC. But I do think Justin hits hard

375
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 2: enough to potentially put him away because he's going to

376
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 2: hit him flush at points, and I think Halloways absolutely

377
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 2: is a chance to pick up our Justin to the

378
00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 2: body and wear him down and fold them with body shot.

379
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 2: I mean, Justin was knocked down by Charles olvera by

380
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,360
Speaker 2: head punches as well. Like He's his vulnerability is durability.

381
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:22,840
Speaker 2: Seems to be declining after all of these wars, so.

382
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 4: I lean holloway.

383
00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:24,800
Speaker 3: I prefer it live.

384
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 2: I like the fight to end inside of the distance

385
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:28,639
Speaker 2: at minus one fifteen. Probably would bet that up to

386
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 2: about minus one twenty five. I projected a closer to

387
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,639
Speaker 2: minus one forty four. This is probably gonna be one

388
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 2: of those fights where you're screaming at the TV for

389
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,400
Speaker 2: somebody to finish for twenty five minutes, and what looks

390
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 2: like somebody is going to get finished for twenty five

391
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,439
Speaker 2: minutes and ultimately goes to the scorecards. So this might

392
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 2: be a frustrating bet, but I think based on the

393
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,160
Speaker 2: pace and based on the action, you do have to bet.

394
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 3: So this fight doesn't have an eyewin button.

395
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,199
Speaker 2: I like now this is going to be a competitive,

396
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,800
Speaker 2: highly competitive striking match where Justin just has more power

397
00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 2: against Max's volume, and I think it may be difficult

398
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 2: for the I used to weigh at in certain rounds,

399
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,480
Speaker 2: which is why I lean to the plus money. If

400
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 2: this goes twenty five minutes, I think it's going to

401
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,159
Speaker 2: be some interesting scorecards. You may get a split and

402
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:08,920
Speaker 2: through two either way.

403
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 3: I just like the use of the eyewin button.

404
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,080
Speaker 1: I just thought that was a good line, and I

405
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,280
Speaker 1: want to steal that when I'm on the golf course

406
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 1: when I'm losing and I win a hole.

407
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe if I'm.

408
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 1: At the grocery store shopping for store brand things. Billy,

409
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,359
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm making stuff up as I say it,

410
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,720
Speaker 1: all right, Billy, As I said, the gay Chee price

411
00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:34,919
Speaker 1: has shortened slightly and in your luck ratings right.

412
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 3: Up justin Gaichee undervalued. Do you still feel that way?

413
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 3: And is that the uh? Is that the direction you're

414
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:41,520
Speaker 3: going in for this one?

415
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,359
Speaker 5: Gae Chee and Holloway, Yeah, I'm leading that way again.

416
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,680
Speaker 5: To call back to another very old bit on this show,

417
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 5: this is a fight I'm far more excited to watch

418
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:51,399
Speaker 5: than I am to bet. I don't think it's a

419
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 5: great betting spot. I ultimately, after watching some tape and

420
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,680
Speaker 5: thinking it through a little bit more, ended up more

421
00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 5: on line with Sean where I think the under is

422
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 5: the better place.

423
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 4: Here.

424
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 5: I put on our little show sheet under four and

425
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 5: a half minus one ten. Same concept is under inside

426
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 5: the distance slightly better price, you're cutting off two and

427
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 5: a half minutes. Actually like Shan's picked better now that

428
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 5: I think that went through the only thing where I

429
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,120
Speaker 5: have a little bit of pushback with what Zerillo said

430
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 5: is Halloway came out in some interviews here and said,

431
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 5: unlike when he went to fight up to fight Dustin

432
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 5: at fifty five, where he didn't really have time to

433
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 5: balk up, he's been actively trying to build power, actively

434
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,199
Speaker 5: trying to put on muscle. But that can be a

435
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 5: problem for the cardio because you've built this whole career

436
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,160
Speaker 5: where you get into the cage at a certain weight

437
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 5: and now all of a sudden, you're five eight ten

438
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 5: pounds heavier because you went up to a new weight class,

439
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,479
Speaker 5: and maybe you're trying to swing hard because of everything

440
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 5: going on. I could see that being an issue. So

441
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 5: I don't feel confident that Holloway has better cardio. I'm

442
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 5: not worried about his cardio necessarily, but I think it's

443
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,639
Speaker 5: closer to a let's see how this one plays out

444
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 5: than I feel great about it going in from a

445
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 5: live betting standpoint. I think it's one of those where

446
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 5: if you see either guy blow out where it looks

447
00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 5: like the market is suggesting someone definitively went around, you

448
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,880
Speaker 5: watch it and you go, I can't really tell that's

449
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 5: how I would live bet it because we see it

450
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 5: all the time where someone you know, everyone watching all

451
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 5: the guys you're watching with everyone says yeah, I don't

452
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,360
Speaker 5: really know, but suddenly the price drops precipitously on somebody.

453
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,159
Speaker 5: So that's how we play it live pre fight like

454
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 5: it down inside the distance as well. Don't really love

455
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:20,919
Speaker 5: the money line side here, just because there are so

456
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:21,640
Speaker 5: many factors.

457
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,679
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. Use

458
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,959
Speaker 1: the bonus code action when signing up to get one

459
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet

460
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 1: just five dollars. Four new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

461
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

462
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 1: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one

463
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: or older. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Let's

464
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 1: make our way through the car with some underdogs, some

465
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 1: props them. We'll wrap with best bets again. This is

466
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,199
Speaker 1: a pay per view main event, a main card, some

467
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 1: prelims starting up. I think it's six Eastern the Earth

468
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 1: early prelims at six eastern on ESPN Plus and eight o'clock.

469
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 1: There's also a round of prelims also an ESPN Plus underdog.

470
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 3: How is the card this week for underdogs? Arello? You

471
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: mentioned it's not a great week for live betting? What

472
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 3: about dogs?

473
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,719
Speaker 1: Because we do hit on dogs every week and some

474
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: weeks you're like, Hey, I like the card for dogs.

475
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 3: Some weeks you're like, not great.

476
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's only really one that I've circled this week

477
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 2: that I like. And you know, I'm having a difficult

478
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 2: time with a lot of these money lines. You could

479
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 2: make very definitive arguments for both sides of these fights,

480
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 2: and I've gone back and forth on a lot. I

481
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,439
Speaker 2: think I'm gonna end up having more totals than I

482
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,439
Speaker 2: wow money lines. But one of the underdogs that I

483
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: do like is Sadiki Yusuf at plus one twenty five.

484
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: I believe Billy and Iron agreement here. I think you're

485
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: just getting a price discount on use of relative to

486
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 2: what you would have gotten had he actually knocked Edson

487
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 2: Barbosa out the first round. He was in a main event.

488
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:49,920
Speaker 2: The UFC saw him as a fighter befitting of being

489
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 2: in a main event and ultimately as Cardio failed him

490
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 2: after he tried to go for a finish in the

491
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 2: first round and Barbosa picked him part across the rest

492
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: of the fight, but he had Barbosa bas out of

493
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 2: there the first round. He's shown in three round fights

494
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 2: that he's very dangerous, and his cardio does last better

495
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 2: in three round fights than it does in five round fights.

496
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: So I like him dialing back off of the five

497
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 2: round fight going back into a fifteen minute fight. I

498
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 2: think that's very important. But I also think you're just getting,

499
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 2: you know, an inflated price here relative to if these

500
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 2: guys had fought, you know, six months ago, a year ago.

501
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 2: Diego Lopez is on quite a run. He looks like

502
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 2: the lead singer of an Emo Ban from the early

503
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: two thousands, and he's one of the most dangerous, dynamic

504
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 2: fighters we've seen enter the ufccen a little bit. He

505
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 2: is phenomenal submission skill. He hits really hard, swings really hard.

506
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 2: He is technically taller and longer in this fight, but

507
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 2: USUF is much more technical, and I think Usef is

508
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,199
Speaker 2: much more durable on the feet. This is probably a

509
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 2: use off KO or a Lopez submission to me and Lopez.

510
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 2: The more I've watched them, the more I've realized he's

511
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 2: more dangerous from his guard than he is on top.

512
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 2: I know he finished I believe it was Gavin Tucker.

513
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: I kind of like knocked him down and then finished

514
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: him from top. But he prefers like his guard game

515
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 2: and guard subs, and Yusuf is not going to go

516
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: for takedowns here. He may get wobbled, you know. Yusuf

517
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 2: is kind of gets wobbled in almost every fight, and

518
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: Lopez swings very hard, but he's so wild and he

519
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 2: leaves himself so open defensively to getting knocked out the

520
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 2: other way. So I think across fifteen minutes, use of

521
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: landsmore damage, and I think Yusuf has a higher chance

522
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 2: of getting a KO. I think Lopez is probably submission

523
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 2: equity is relatively equal to Yusuf's KO equity, but at

524
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: plus money plus one twenty five, happy to take sebek

525
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 2: Us if I think fight should be closer to pick him,

526
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 2: so plus one twenty five happy for me, plus one

527
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 2: fifteen probably fine.

528
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 3: Two you FC three hundred underdog Billy Ward.

529
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, my main one is also Sadik Yusef. His best

530
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 5: attribute is his Brazilian jiu jitsu. He's the coach for

531
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 5: Alexa Grosso and some of those fighters down there in Mexico.

532
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 5: But through four us SEE affiliated fights counting the Contender series,

533
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 5: he has zero takedowns that he's landed. He has never

534
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 5: landed a takedown. They've given him almost exclusively other grapplers

535
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 5: to go with, so he's relying on you to take

536
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 5: him down, and then he gets to do his cool

537
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 5: stuff on the ground. Sadik's not gonna do that, so

538
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 5: that makes it probably a striking match, unless you know,

539
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 5: Diego Lopez does the Charles OLIVERA I'm gonna pretend you

540
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 5: hurt me, Please follow me down move. Don't think Yusuf's

541
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 5: gonna fall for that. Seems like a fairly well thought out,

542
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 5: you know, calculating dude in that regard.

543
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 4: And then so how does he win?

544
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,360
Speaker 5: Right, he wins a sloppy striking match against a guy

545
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 5: who's probably a little bit harder hitter, probably a little

546
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 5: bit more athletic, a little bit more disciplined in the striking.

547
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 5: So yeah, I'm with Shan on that. It's just weird

548
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 5: to see these guys whose best skill is grappling, but

549
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 5: have no way to get the fight to the canvas themselves.

550
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 5: The other underdog, I'm on and it is a terrible

551
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 5: card for underdogs, to answer your question to Sean technically

552
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 5: fitting the definition of an underdog, though was a better

553
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 5: price earlier in the week. Is I reterally like Yeri

554
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:03,199
Speaker 5: proff Toska coming back against Alexander Rakitch, another former light

555
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 5: heavyweight champion on this card feels like they might have

556
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 5: booked this one to be a de facto backup for

557
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 5: the main event in case Jamal Hill couldn't get ready

558
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 5: because Prahaska just fought Alex Peeda for the interim championship

559
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 5: or for the vacant championship. Kind of an early stoppage

560
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 5: where it looked at first glance like Petaska was knocked out.

561
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 5: Might have kind of just slipped and accidentally pulled mount

562
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 5: for lack.

563
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 4: Of a better term.

564
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 5: And he's fighting Rakich, who is another guy coming back

565
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 5: been two years out of the cage with a pretty

566
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 5: bad knee injury of his own. I think the way

567
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 5: you beat Yerie is by kicking his legs because he

568
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 5: keeps his hands down in his torso away and he's

569
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 5: dancing around, which makes it really easy to kick his legs,

570
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 5: and Peida was chopping away there. But we got a

571
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 5: guy in Rakicch coming back who probably hasn't thrown a

572
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 5: leg kick at full force with no shin pads in

573
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 5: two and a half years, and the last time he

574
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 5: did it he got a ton of him checked and

575
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 5: then his kneel ultimately blew out. Other stylistic thing, Rakich

576
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,479
Speaker 5: has a really good long man game, straight punches, straight shots,

577
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,959
Speaker 5: working from the outside, giving up just a tiny bit

578
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 5: of reach on Yeri here, and when he gets just

579
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 5: out of range, he overextends his right hand really bad.

580
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 5: It almost looks like a pitcher on his follow through

581
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 5: where he pulls his right hand down. Can get away

582
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 5: with that when you're taller and staying in a position

583
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 5: of safety. There's no positions of safety against Yuyp. He'll

584
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 5: throw a standing hammer, fist, weird uppercut, hitch you with

585
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 5: all kinds of stuff from a weird angle when you

586
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 5: think you're safe. So from that technical standpoint, I really

587
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 5: like Proska. But the bigger point is, just like in

588
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 5: the main event, I'm trying to fade all these guys

589
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 5: coming back off significant injuries. I don't think it works

590
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 5: out well for him. Year he had an injury of

591
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 5: his own, but he's one fight removed from that and

592
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 5: looked reasonably okay. So that's the biggest handicapping factor for

593
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 5: me here. I know Zarrella is on the other side.

594
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 5: What am I missing?

595
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 2: So the reason I'm not as worried about Rackets's injuries

596
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 2: opposed to Calvin Cator or Jamal Hill. He was actually

597
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 2: supposed to fight at UFC two ninety seven in January.

598
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: He was booked against Yan Polhovic, and Belhovich pulled out

599
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: of that fight with an injury. So to me, he

600
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 2: was ready to go three months ago, got more time

601
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: to recover from the injury, and I think he does

602
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 2: do the two things that Eerie struggles with most, which

603
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 2: is one takedowns and two kicking the leg. And absolutely concerned,

604
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 2: you know, about the quality of his knee following that injury.

605
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 2: But considering I think he's had substantial over time to

606
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 2: recover from an ACL injury, I mean two years. Normally,

607
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 2: when we see fighters or athletes come back from that

608
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 2: one year timeline in the ACL injury, we're a little

609
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 2: bit skeptical because we know it's more of a two

610
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 2: year injury to get back to full speed, like Adrian

611
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: Peterson and Breeze Holler are the only two athletes have

612
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 2: ever seen come back like nearly full force from the

613
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: ACL tear. But he has that two years. He was

614
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 2: ready to go three months ago, So the injury factor

615
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 2: doesn't really concern me as much as it normally would.

616
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 2: But I do think he's capable of landing takedowns, getting

617
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 2: top time, getting booed by the crowd, and making this

618
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 2: as boring of a fight as possible because he doesn't

619
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 2: do anything on the ground, but he is big, and

620
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 2: he's good at consolidating position once he gets fighters on

621
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: the ground. And then I think the other thing is

622
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 2: the leg kicks. Now, Yuri showed in the Payera fight

623
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 2: that even though his leg was completely chewed up, he

624
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 2: just fought through the pain and pressed forward, and it

625
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 2: did seem like he forced the issue a little bit,

626
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 2: which led to the stoppage, which led to that big

627
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: exchange because the leg was falling apart, and he knew

628
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 2: it was a matter of time before that thing was,

629
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 2: you know, going to fall off of him, and he

630
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 2: wouldn't have any effectiveness, so he did kind of press

631
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 2: the button and press forward when he needed to otherwise

632
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 2: the fight was going to end anyway. But I do

633
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 2: think Rakich can employ a very similar game plan here

634
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 2: hammer his leg and then use the weakness of the footworker,

635
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,239
Speaker 2: you know, the weakend leg to potentially take him down

636
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 2: again on top of him. So had to head on

637
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: this fight less concerned about the injury than you are.

638
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: Eerie is just like an impossible stylistic matchup for anybody

639
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: to prepare for. Though, And if rackets is showing any

640
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 2: cage Russ after being out for over two years, I

641
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 2: think Euri could absolutely take advantage of him early. So

642
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 2: this is actually another fight that as I talk about it,

643
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 2: as I think about it more, I might be more

644
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: interested in a rackage live bet as this fight goes longer,

645
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 2: if he's landing those calf kicks. But Yuri maybe wins

646
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: the first round with strikes if he looks a little

647
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 2: bit rusty, you know, coming off of a shelf, which

648
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: is very common for fighters who are missing you're out

649
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: of the cage for two years, I might be interested

650
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 2: in a live bet on racket chapter round one if

651
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 2: I'm getting plus money but I like him brief I

652
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 2: two at about minus one ten. I projected this line

653
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 2: closer to minus one forteen. I should say, based on

654
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 2: the way I handgap these fights the day I pull in.

655
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: Charles olivera year per Hochka, and Jim Miller are severely

656
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 2: public underdog week. I mean, all at plus money, but

657
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: all getting picked to win their fights like sixty to

658
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 2: eighty five percent of the time. So based on the

659
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 2: way I, you know, run the math on these fights,

660
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: how I evalue it, like where the picks are going,

661
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 2: where the money's going, it does seem like those are

662
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 2: three very popular underdogs. This week, I'm on Serukian against

663
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 2: Charles OLIVERA. I don't know if I'm going to bet

664
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 2: the Miller Green fight, but based on the way I

665
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 2: handygap things, I have to take a racket.

666
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 5: Yeer only thing I'll say to that, And you alluded

667
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 5: to it too, with with the injury layoff being as

668
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 5: long as it was, It's not that I'm worried about

669
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 5: like the physical structure of his knee. I'm worried about

670
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 5: the fact that he hasn't had live competition and close

671
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 5: to two years. You know, when guys, when we train

672
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 5: for fights, and I've been in a lot of different

673
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 5: gyms and this is almost universal. You're only throwing kicks

674
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 5: if you have shin pads on, because just that shin

675
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 5: on body contact does so much damage. There's a very

676
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 5: solid chance that he hasn't kicked another human without a

677
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 5: shin pad on at full force in two years at

678
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 5: this point. So it's not so much that the knee

679
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 5: itself is going to be the problem, but will he

680
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 5: have the confidence to do it? With all that said,

681
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 5: you know when I wrote up up earlier in the week,

682
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 5: took him at plus one fifteen. I don't love him

683
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 5: as you know, slight favorite or even money wherever he's

684
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 5: at now. You know, wish I was giving this out

685
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 5: where we could still get plus money, which I did

686
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 5: on Monday in a video, So should have followed it

687
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 5: there rather than now. But I do like your live

688
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 5: bet point, and honestly, if we come out and see rackets,

689
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 5: land a hard kick twelve seconds in and the price

690
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 5: is the same, fire away like it might it might

691
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 5: be that easy. We talked about it with Chris Widman

692
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 5: in his first fight back, like, let's just see how

693
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 5: that first kick goes before we make any decisions, so

694
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 5: I don't I don't hate where you're coming from. Definitely

695
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 5: agree with the live better standpoint, not from a cardio dynamic,

696
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 5: but just because we'll have so much more information potentially

697
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 5: thirty seconds into this fight than we have right now.

698
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 2: And he's just likelyer to you know, be a little

699
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: bit like slower to start right, and Yuri always swarms people.

700
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 2: So I think I think Rackage's chances of winning the

701
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: fight kind of increase the longer it goes, and that

702
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 2: the more you know, once YEARI doesn't finish him immediately.

703
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 2: I think Racket is like chances kind of increase and

704
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: increase and increase.

705
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 1: Rackets the slight favorite right now minus one fifteen on

706
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: the money line jury of minus one oh five.

707
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 3: But good stuff, guysak.

708
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: Should be really fun, even though, like I think there's

709
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: a chance Rackets just like controls him and makes it boring,

710
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: but the first round might be nuts.

711
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 3: It's good stuff.

712
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: Even though you guys weren't crazy about underdogs on the cards.

713
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: It's a good.

714
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: Discussion of generally speaking, any week we do this right

715
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: where you can understand why it might not be a

716
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 1: great car, but then they're are the opportunities that might

717
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 1: present themselves over the course of just an individual fight,

718
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: or what the the card offers. Let's go to let's

719
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: go to props Zerrilla Props for UFC three hundred.

720
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're going to close out here with three props,

721
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: including my best bet, but two that I really like

722
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: Calvin Cator al jaminer Sterling fight and inside the distance

723
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 2: at plus one fifty five Algio going up to one

724
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 2: forty five. Here, he looks really boked up, he looks big,

725
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 2: and I know Billy is on that side of the fight,

726
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: and once I've seen his physique, I mean, this is

727
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 2: a guy who cut a ton of weight to make

728
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: one thirty five. He's the one thirty five pound champion

729
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,959
Speaker 2: got knocked out by Sean O'Malley. And the one thing

730
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 2: I'm concerned about with Aljo is he's he's had success

731
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: striking against smaller fighters, but when he's faced bigger fighters,

732
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 2: he doesn't find his ranges easily. You know, he wasn't

733
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: finding his ranges easily against seanamalley. I know he won

734
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: that first round, but he wasn't finding the range to

735
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 2: land his takedowns.

736
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 3: And Calvin Cator is bigger than him and hits harder.

737
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 2: So I am a bit worried as an Algro fan

738
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 2: that he's going to get kot here and quite badly,

739
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: one coming off of a knockout loss, but two just

740
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 2: by the nature of how hard Calvin Cator hits. He

741
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: is elite boxing and moving up in wait. You know,

742
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 2: it's just a different level of power than what he's

743
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: previously experienced. But in the same respect, Calvin Cator coming

744
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 2: off of a knee injury. Sterling is one of the

745
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 2: best backtakers in the sport, and Cater has very good

746
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 2: first layer takedown defense, but once you actually get him down,

747
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 2: I don't think his defensive grappling is anywhere near the

748
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: level of what you need to defend Aljo, So backpack

749
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: choke quickly I think is very live, the same way

750
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 2: that Aljo did to Corey Sanhagen. I like this fight

751
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 2: in inside the Distance at plus one fifty five. I

752
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: think it's pretty binary Aljro grappling Cater boxing him up

753
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 2: on the feed given the fact that I think Alja

754
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 2: is going to have trouble navigating that range, so fighting

755
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 2: inside the distance there. I also like Davison Figuredo in

756
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 2: the first fight of the night to win inside the

757
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 2: distance at minus one oh five. This was a tight.

758
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 2: This was a fight that he was supposed to happen

759
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: at USC two fifty five for the Flyway title, both

760
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 2: up at one thirty five. Now, I don't think Cody

761
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 2: Garbaran is like terrible in his recent fights. I know

762
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: he's as back to back wins, but even his fight

763
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: against Trevin Jones, every time Jones was getting close to

764
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: the landing, I did not like Cody's reactions. He has

765
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 2: no chin at this point. If he gets hit flush,

766
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 2: he's gonna end up dancing around the cage and eventually

767
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: going out. I think about his knockout loss against Ky

768
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 2: Carr France like once a week, just the way he

769
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 2: got hit and then he was like literally sprinting backwards

770
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 2: and inviting like car France to come forward as he's

771
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 2: sprinting backwards, and Kai car Franch just chased them down

772
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 2: and knocked him out. I think Figgy's gonna lay clean

773
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 2: clean counters here. Cody doesn't really follow a game plan.

774
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 2: I think Figgy either knocks him out or Cody shoots

775
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: after getting clipped and then it gets guillotine. So I

776
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: like figgu to win inside the distance at minus one

777
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 2: oh five, I lean knockout, but I think that guillotine

778
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 2: is very live too, Okay, very good.

779
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: So a prop and a prop that is the best

780
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: bet for Shanzillo, Billy take us home.

781
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 3: What do you have for a prop? And you can

782
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 3: give your best bet too.

783
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 4: Before I get to mind.

784
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 5: Just to add on to the al Jo discussion, like

785
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 5: I've talked about with a couple different guys on this slate,

786
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 5: in his striking, he really heavily relies on being taller

787
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 5: and longer than people, which going up to one four

788
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 5: five he is not. He might actually even up a

789
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 5: weight class be bigger and stronger than Calvncator because he's jacked.

790
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 4: He's huge.

791
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 5: You guys can go watch him. He's done a couple

792
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 5: like professional grappling matches. His last one was at one seventy,

793
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 5: so he's walking around at least one seventy and cutting

794
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 5: down to forty five, which is just absurd.

795
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 4: And al Jo might not.

796
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 5: Be an elite takedown artist in the truest sense of

797
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,319
Speaker 5: the word, but in my opinion, he might be the

798
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 5: best fighter in the UFC at turning a fight into

799
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 5: a grappling match. However that happens, whether it's a takedown

800
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 5: or get into his back or kind of dragging a

801
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 5: guy down. Like no one in the sport is better

802
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 5: at making the fight happen on his terms, I think

803
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 5: than Aljamaine Sterling. I mean, we can talk about like

804
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 5: the Hamzats or bon Nichols of the world, whatever, but

805
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 5: that's one dimensional. They're really good at one thing. Al

806
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 5: Jo He's gonna make this a grappling match one way

807
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 5: or the other. So I like Aljro inside the distance

808
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 5: more than fight inside. Fight ends in the distance, But

809
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 5: I agree with that pick. My favorite little bit of

810
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 5: a long shot prop is money Moore Kano round three

811
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 5: or by decision at plus four to ten. Did the

812
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 5: write up for this fight. It's gonna be scary at

813
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 5: the beginning because Jalen Turner is the biggest lightweight I've

814
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 5: ever seen in my life. It doesn't make any sense

815
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 5: that he makes one fifty five.

816
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 4: He's six'.

817
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 5: Three there's been other six to three, lightweights but they

818
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 5: look like they're gonna blow away with the strong gust to,

819
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 5: win And Jalen turner looks like AN nfl player who

820
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 5: somehow fights at. Lightweight the problem with that is he's

821
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 5: so big and so strong and so explosive and cut

822
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 5: so much weight that doesn't last a long. Time AND

823
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 5: i looked it. Up he has never won a fight

824
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 5: that made it to the third. Round he either gets

825
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 5: finished in the third round or has lost a decision

826
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 5: every time it's gone that far. Money Moi, kano former,

827
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 5: fatherweight doesn't cut a ton of weight at fifty, five

828
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 5: his wrestling.

829
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 4: Has looked a lot.

830
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 5: Better kind of the thesis here for me is That

831
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 5: moykano can just do enough with the wrestling to kind

832
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 5: of Where turner, out stay, safe survive the opening round

833
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 5: or so then take over down the stretch.

834
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 4: Stretch that's the one live.

835
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:55,919
Speaker 5: Spot i'm also looking to target because we could see

836
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 5: much bigger price after round, one but from a pre

837
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 5: fight standpoint four to one on round three or by

838
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 5: decision could even go Mo kano decision only when books offer,

839
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 5: that although that's not as juicy of a. Price SO

840
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 5: i like just taking the sprinkle at the late.

841
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 2: Prop, YEAH i Like turner inside of the, distance but

842
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: the price is two. Steep it's like minus one sixty

843
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 2: IS i think ultimately that is the result it's WHAT

844
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,399
Speaker 2: i wanted to, bet BUT i was hoping for something

845
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 2: closer to minus one ten or mint its one, twenty

846
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: not minus one. Sixty so unfortunately that maybe ONE i

847
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 2: have to pass. On BUT i did want to bet the.

848
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 2: Tarantula he's, uh he's got a big size advantage over mcno.

849
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 2: Here mocna used to be a one forty, five so

850
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 2: this is like a huge size. Differential this is a

851
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 2: weldweight fighting.

852
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 3: Effect all, right, gents great. Stuff there's YOUR ufc three

853
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 3: hundred betting pre.

854
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 2: MORE i got one, More, brennan do it?

855
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 3: Up what do you?

856
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 2: Got Kayla Harrison Holly holm ends inside the distance and even.

857
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 2: Money this is my best bet on the. Card there's

858
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 2: a ten year age differential between these. Fighters kayla making

859
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 2: HER ufc, debut But Holly holm has become really reliant

860
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 2: on grappling in her LATE ufc, career landing, takedowns, cage

861
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 2: pushing fighters against the. Fence kayla probably has like twenty

862
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 2: pounds on it by the time these two step inside the.

863
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 2: Cage we'll see If Kayla harrison even makes weight On,

864
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 2: friday because she used to fight at lightweight and now

865
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 2: she's trying to cut down a one thirty five because

866
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 2: THE ufc eliminated their one hundred and forty five pound.

867
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 3: Division she.

868
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 2: SHREDDED i don't know if she's gonna be able to

869
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 2: make the. Weight we'll see If holly takes the, fight

870
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 2: if she Misses Waighte worth noting, Here Kayla harrison wasn't

871
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 2: allowed to throw elbows IN. Pfl she's going to get

872
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 2: Mount she's going to rain down. Elbows she's gonna win

873
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 2: this fight inside the. DISTANCE i do like the fight

874
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 2: to end inside the. Distance that would even. Money kayla went.

875
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:31,359
Speaker 3: Inside the distance is about plus one.

876
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 2: Thirty there's not enough of a price discrepancy there for

877
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 2: me to take either. FIGHTER i Think holly can still

878
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 2: knock her out on the, feet BUT i think this

879
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: is likely ending With harrison on top And home on

880
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 2: the bottom and her getting pounded out via.

881
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,320
Speaker 3: Strikes, billy you, Good.

882
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 5: Yeah that's it for. Me we were gonna Do yuri

883
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 5: is my best. Bet talked about a couple of, Props

884
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 5: so that's.

885
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 1: It, okay, excellent and that was that was the best

886
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 1: bet From. Sorella that was on the final. Bet that

887
00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 1: was something you were excited. ABOUT i can tell by

888
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: your inflection in your. Voice all, right that's going to

889
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: do it for OUR ufc three hundred betting preview here

890
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,240
Speaker 1: on The Action network podcast we are presented BY. Betmgm

891
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 1: Find billy And sean in The action app especially for

892
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:15,239
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893
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 1: up To saturday.

894
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:18,640
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895
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:22,560
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896
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,520
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897
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:26,319
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898
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,080
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899
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,600
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900
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:31,600
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901
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902
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 1: Zillo Billy, Warp brendan Glass. Sheen thanks for listening to

903
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast presented BY.

904
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:47,240
Speaker 3: Bedmgm we will join you again next. Week Action network

905
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:51,440
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906
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907
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