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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree?

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Speaker 2: I've got five dollars?

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Speaker 1: This is a radable up. They tackled.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be human.

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Speaker 4: My goodness' mistake.

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Speaker 2: Nice, prone, the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless.

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Speaker 4: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex podcast from the Action Network

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Speaker 2: and Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Chris Raven.

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Speaker 2: We got our divisional Round touchdown episode here. As always,

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Speaker 2: I'm joined by one of the most accurate rankers in

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Speaker 2: the game top three this year, and picked a nice

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Speaker 2: Ti Johnson TD last week, Sean Kern of The Odes Maker, Shawn.

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Speaker 4: What's up?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? What's up? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: That Ty Johnson touchout was fine. That was kind of

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Speaker 3: what I was saying, you know, downfield targets. I saw,

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Speaker 3: I saw that he ran. He literally ran what sixty

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Speaker 3: seven yards total on that touchdown and then he was

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Speaker 3: able to stay in. So fantastic catch and touchdown by

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Speaker 3: Tye last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that was art. That might have been the best. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's probably top three catches of the year. That just

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Speaker 2: that I've never seen quite that that type of fall

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Speaker 2: to actually work and you know, get the touchdown like

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Speaker 2: Adam Thie when I think probably had like something close

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Speaker 2: to it, but it was like the other direction and

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Speaker 2: they didn't give him the touch Yeah. All right, So

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Speaker 2: we're gonna go through the four divisional round games, got

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Speaker 2: to Saturday to Sunday. We'll give our best touchdown bets

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Speaker 2: in each and we've got quick slip links in the

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Speaker 2: episode description. So if you want to tail any of

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Speaker 2: these bets that we give out today, just look for

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Speaker 2: those quick slip links in this episode description, and if

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Speaker 2: you're watching live, we'll drop them in the chat for

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Speaker 2: you as well. All right, let's kick it off with

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Speaker 2: the Saturday the first game on Saturday, you got the

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Speaker 2: Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs are eight point favorites.

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Speaker 2: The total is forty one and a half.

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Speaker 4: Probably not going to be the greatest weather. Chiefs are rested.

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Speaker 2: I really like Exavier Worthy anytime touchdown plus two h five.

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Speaker 2: I have him and Travis Kelcey flip flopped compared to

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Speaker 2: the market. So the market has Kelsey about plus one

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Speaker 2: fifty and Worthy at plus two hundred. I have Worthy

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Speaker 2: about plus one fifty and Kelsey at you know a

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Speaker 2: little over plus two hundred. I think there's gonna be

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Speaker 2: some Kelsey inflation because you keep hearing the stats, you know,

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Speaker 2: seventy plus yards and what is it, twelve or thirteenth

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Speaker 2: great playoff games and this and that, and you know,

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Speaker 2: I think that really that has to kind of play

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Speaker 2: into a market like this. So I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 2: value was Worthy, who has just been on a tear

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Speaker 2: to close the season. It's like where everyone's kind of wondering,

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Speaker 2: you know, is Hopkins is gonna get more usage? Is

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Speaker 2: Mark Heath Brown? I guess I think you're gonna see

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Speaker 2: a ton of Examer Worthy. He's caught four more passes

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Speaker 2: in each of his last seven games, including Week eighteen,

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Speaker 2: five point six on average. The Texans are giving up

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Speaker 2: the highest touchdown rate to slot wide receivers, and Worthy

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Speaker 2: played a season high twenty six slot snaps against Houston

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Speaker 2: in Week sixteen. He needs a team in total touchdowns

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Speaker 2: with nine. He needs a team in receiving touchdowns with six.

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Speaker 2: Also three more rushing scores, second on the team to

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Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt. And I found that unlike running backs, where

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Speaker 2: you know, rushing touchdowns are you know, pretty much just variants.

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Speaker 2: It's just the famous carries like you're not really You're

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Speaker 2: not really gonna get much variation there. Like receiving receiver

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Speaker 2: touchdowns are a lot more predictable because they're so rare

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Speaker 2: for a receiver to get in a position to scored

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Speaker 2: multiple touchdowns. It's really like Worthy and maybe like Deebo

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Speaker 2: Samuel so Worthy scored two from twenty one yards out

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Speaker 2: and he's got another that he scored from the red zone.

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Speaker 2: And we know Andy Reek can kind of scheme those

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Speaker 2: things up, so more repeatable than most. So love me

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Speaker 2: some Exavier Worthy for the Chiefs. And this guy just

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Speaker 2: keeps coming up. Sean, we keep having to talk about him.

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Speaker 2: I gotta go there, I gotta go there, don't Schultz

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Speaker 2: plus four seventy five at bet MGM. So this is

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Speaker 2: one where he's trending up as the week has progressed.

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Speaker 2: We started Deyontay Johnson getting released, Kate stovergill on IR

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Speaker 2: and Kate Stover going on IR is big because he

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Speaker 2: was a number two tight and he caught four balls

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Speaker 2: in that first playoff game when Stover has been out.

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Speaker 2: Those two other games with the appendix, Schultz's route participation

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Speaker 2: rate hit ninety percent. Usually he's in the high seventies.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he gets to the low eighties and he blocks

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Speaker 2: a little bit more.

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Speaker 4: But when star Over was out.

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Speaker 2: He's just a clear receiver, and you know, Mixing is

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Speaker 2: gonna pass block a little bit more, and uh, maybe

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Speaker 2: they activate our guy Teagan Contriano.

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Speaker 4: But uh, Stultz leeds.

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Speaker 2: Houston and red zone routes were only second on the

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Speaker 2: team in red zone targets, behind Nico Collins. And he's

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Speaker 2: and we know Kansas City's gonna play a lot of

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Speaker 2: man coverage. Steve Spagnola loves to do it, and this

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Speaker 2: Texan receiving corps, uh is just begging for them to

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Speaker 2: play man coverage.

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Speaker 4: So don't chokes.

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Speaker 2: The only Texan besides Tank Dell with multiple receiving scores

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Speaker 2: against man coverage, and really the only other Texans besides

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Speaker 2: Nico Collins that you'd really trust to win against man

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Speaker 2: against you know, I think he's gonna, you know, have

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Speaker 2: a lot of time on those linebackers for Kansas City

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Speaker 2: and they're you know, they're gonna focus on Nico and

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Speaker 2: their their corners are can probably lock up Hutchinson, Woods,

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Speaker 2: whoever else Metchi and then it's gonna leave Schultz with

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Speaker 2: the most favorable matchups. So like Schultz anytime touchdown plus

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Speaker 2: four seventy five at bet and he am.

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Speaker 4: Any thoughts on those? Are you ready to go to? Uh?

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Speaker 3: I love yeah, And I was kind of low on

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Speaker 3: Schultz open the week, but like you mentioned that released

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Speaker 3: Dante Johnson, Kate Stovers, and ir Robert Woods hasn't practiced yet,

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Speaker 3: so I'm much higher on him now than I was

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Speaker 3: early in the week, and I'm right there with you.

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Speaker 1: I'm worthy.

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Speaker 3: I have him at plus one fifty two those The

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Speaker 3: rushing touchdown upside is massive. You know, he has three

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Speaker 3: scores on theinger like you mentioned, so he has multiple

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Speaker 3: ways to find the end zone. So yeah, offering way

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Speaker 3: too much value anything plus two hundred or higher.

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Speaker 2: All right, Speaking of multiple touchdowns, we should see a

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Speaker 2: lot in this game. Second one of the Saturday slate,

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Speaker 2: Washington at Detroit. The Lions nine and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorites to total fifty five and half. Real quick, Sean,

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Speaker 2: before you get into your touchdown, I'm just curious. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: when you see a total like this do you you

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Speaker 2: know that's something that's going to kind of dictate the

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Speaker 2: touchdown on So you do you kind of like use

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Speaker 2: your total and like end up seeing a lot of

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Speaker 2: guys inflated for this if you're lower or are you

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Speaker 2: kind of just like looking for value either way?

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Speaker 1: Looking for value either way.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think this total should be this high.

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Speaker 3: We might not see many punts in this game. Both

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Speaker 3: teams are very aggressive on fourth downs, so I think

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Speaker 3: we're gonna see a shit ton of points here. So

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting that close to this. The market obviously is

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Speaker 3: factoring that in. But that's why I have, you know,

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Speaker 3: a decent value guy and then a long shot.

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Speaker 1: I do have a long shot for this game on

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Speaker 1: the Lion side.

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Speaker 3: But for the for the Commanders, I'm gonna go Diami

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Speaker 3: Brown at plus three point fifty. You know, he's coming

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Speaker 3: off the best game of the season with five catches,

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Speaker 3: eighty nine yards and a touchdown last week against the Bucks.

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Speaker 3: I think he keeps it rolling here against Lions in

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Speaker 3: what should be a shootout. You know, the Commanders are

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Speaker 3: expected to trail at a twenty seven percent higher rate

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Speaker 3: than their season average here as close to you know

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Speaker 3: ten point dogs. So not only are is Jane Daniel's

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Speaker 3: gonna have to draw back to pass more. In general,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna probably see more three wide receiver sets from

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Speaker 3: the Commanders, so we could see an increase in snaps

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Speaker 3: for Brown and you know pass stemps overall, so it's

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Speaker 3: sort of a double whammie for him. Plus, the Lions

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Speaker 3: use man covered at the highest rate in the league,

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Speaker 3: and that's where Jami has really thrived. He's seen a

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Speaker 3: huge boost against man coverage, averaging two point two yards

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Speaker 3: per route run against man, leads the team even more

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Speaker 3: than Terry McLaurin. Plus, he tends to see targets downfield

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Speaker 3: fifteen percent of his targets or twenty plus yards downfield.

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Speaker 3: Only Tarry McLaurin has a higher deep ball rate for

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Speaker 3: the Commander, so he has multiple ways to get there,

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Speaker 3: you know, explosive plays. Also, they have been giving him

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Speaker 3: design rush attempts to close up the season two. He

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Speaker 3: had three carries for twenty six yards over the final

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Speaker 3: five games, so similar as Xavier Worthy, it's just an

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Speaker 3: additional way for him to potentially score when they get

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Speaker 3: in the red zone. So love is upside here, you know,

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Speaker 3: coming off his best game of the season last last week.

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Speaker 3: So to go with Johnny Brown here at plus three

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Speaker 3: fifty and on the Lion side, gonna get wild here,

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Speaker 3: Gonna go with Brockwright at twelve to one. Do I

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Speaker 3: think he'll score a touchdown? Probably not, But should he

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Speaker 3: be twelve to one?

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Speaker 1: No way in hell. He has nine.

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Speaker 3: Touchdowns and forty five games in his career, so how

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Speaker 3: about a touchdown every five games? So you know we're

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Speaker 3: getting some value here at twelve to one. But he's

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Speaker 3: a player that he doesn't catch many passes, but when

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Speaker 3: he does, they tend to be in the red zone.

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Speaker 3: He has two touchdowns this year. One of them was

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Speaker 3: he was clearly the first read. They literally designed the

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Speaker 3: play to go to Brockwright, and I think this is

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Speaker 3: you know, this is the playoffs. We could see Ben

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Speaker 3: Johnson get more creative on these red zone plays where

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Speaker 3: we could see a player like brock Wright, Dan Skipper,

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Speaker 3: someone like that to be you know, schemed up in

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Speaker 3: the red zone. So I think it's sneaky to take

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Speaker 3: you know, dart throw on the Lions here. Plus, you

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Speaker 3: know the Commanders they've been pretty prone to back up

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Speaker 3: tight ends scoring touchdowns. I look, they they have a

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Speaker 3: lot of touchdown the Jordan Akens, Chris Manhers, Luke Schoonmaker,

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Speaker 3: Foster Moreau, and even Kyle Pitts scored against them. So

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Speaker 3: they've been allowing backup caliber tight ends to score quite

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Speaker 3: a bit this year.

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Speaker 1: So sign me up for brock ride at twelve to one.

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Speaker 2: Here, man, I don't know, I don't know what's worth.

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Speaker 2: What's worth Whenning Kyle Pitts score Dungeon or Chris Mann hurts.

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Speaker 4: Chris Man hurts.

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Speaker 2: I think he blocks like eighty eighty percent of the time. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I remember that touchdown too. It's like, wow, that's that's

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Speaker 2: that's who're letting get in the end zone. I think

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Speaker 2: it's a long one to the other Giants tight end too.

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Speaker 2: The field field Johnson and Chris Mann Hurts bullskit. They're

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Speaker 2: both kind of backup like so, yeah, you might want

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Speaker 2: to exactly, but yeah, I like the.

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Speaker 4: Diami Brown pick as well. I already bet that one.

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Speaker 4: I think he's gonna have to be very.

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Speaker 2: Involved for this Washington offense just because tough matchup on

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Speaker 2: the ground for Robinson and you know, like you said,

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Speaker 2: they play them out of man coverage, so tough matchup

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Speaker 2: for Earth's as well. They've they've been really good against

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Speaker 2: tight ends. So I think Diani Brown has another big game.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of been him AND's the keyas flip flopping

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Speaker 2: a little bit, but it just sets up as a as.

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Speaker 4: A Brown game.

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Speaker 2: Looking for weekly projections from me and Sean Kerner, the

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Speaker 2: only place you'll find them is at fantasylabs dot com.

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00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,600
Speaker 2: You'll get our weekly player projections every week, plus access

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Speaker 2: to a suite of tools, including our lineup optimizer and

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00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,920
Speaker 2: our all new sim Labs lineup builder that uses the

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Speaker 2: power of simulations paired with our award winning projections to

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Speaker 2: deliver winning lineups in near seconds. Use promo code flex

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Speaker 2: forty that's fl e x four zero for forty dollars

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Speaker 2: off your first month of Fantasy Labs dfs.

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Speaker 4: We've dropped the link in this episode's description.

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Speaker 2: Just remember to use code flex forty at checkout.

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Speaker 4: All Right, Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Got the Ravens at the Buffalo Bills Ravens one and

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Speaker 2: a half point favor is the total fifty one and

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Speaker 2: a half and got to go back to Amari Cooper

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Speaker 2: here plus five hundred at Bett MGM. And this is

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Speaker 2: a spot where he really is set up well to

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Speaker 2: score a touchdown because you have Brandon Stevens, who is

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Speaker 2: the Ravens right cornerback. He is stationary when he lines

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Speaker 2: up outside corner eight hundred and ninety seven snaps at

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Speaker 2: right corner, heen on the other side, so he's going

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Speaker 2: to be there on the at the right corner spot,

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Speaker 2: which is the offensive left, and that's where Cooper has

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Speaker 2: been for the majority.

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Speaker 4: Of his snaps with the Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 2: He's got seventeen targets on that left side in just

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Speaker 2: three to the right. So this sets up for Cooper

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Speaker 2: to get singled up and potentially get a score. And

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Speaker 2: we know the quarterback thrown on the ball can place

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Speaker 2: it where only he can get it. And the last

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Speaker 2: two weeks Stevens so he's about five touchdowns in total

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Speaker 2: this year, which is the most, tied for the most

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Speaker 2: of any defender, and coverage last two weeks he's allowed

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Speaker 2: one to Van Jefferson and Jordan Aikens, So yeah, like

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Speaker 2: that's not great. Jordan Nathan's coming up a lot in

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Speaker 2: this podcast for some reason. I don't know why, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: Amari Cooper, he's been very conspicuously absent and from the

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Speaker 2: Bills like game planning and whatnot, But do like his

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Speaker 2: Potentially he might get only one catch and it might

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Speaker 2: be this such Dawn and on the raven side, gotta

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Speaker 2: go with I think you gotta go with somebody heavy, right,

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Speaker 2: So the Bills love to go small on defense and

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Speaker 2: have that you know, nickel defender in so teams go

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Speaker 2: hard with the heavy personnel against them. So I'm going

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Speaker 2: with Patrick orcard here at plus three thousand. Baltimore used

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Speaker 2: heavy personnel ninety percent of the time last week, likely

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Speaker 2: to do so again somewhere in that similar rate. The

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Speaker 2: Buffalo defense faces two to one, which is two backs

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Speaker 2: which means usually a full bay at the fifth highest

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Speaker 2: rate in the league from opposing offenses. Almost one hundred

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Speaker 2: plays opposing offenses have played in two to one against

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Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills. And what you're gonna see is, you know,

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Speaker 2: last week bo Nick's uh, you know, they had they

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Speaker 2: had a plan for him that involved Milano kind of

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Speaker 2: being like a spy third down, they kind of switched

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Speaker 2: his roll up. Now they're gonna have to have a

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Speaker 2: plan for that, you know, option game with Lamar and

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Speaker 2: Henry and it's you know, that's gonna take probably two

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Speaker 2: to maybe even three players if they want to have

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Speaker 2: somebody fill a gap like Steelers did. That puts a

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Speaker 2: lot of stress on the defense. And then if you

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Speaker 2: have another player in the backfield that can also you know,

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Speaker 2: go out in the route. Uh, that just creates so

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Speaker 2: that he's gonna be wide open. Uh if they want

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Speaker 2: to scheme it up, and they actually have schemed up

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Speaker 2: a touchdown for him. He got to score earlier this

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Speaker 2: year against the Denver Broncos. Caught it from Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 2: late in the third quarter of that of that game. So, uh,

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Speaker 2: there he's been. He's been into the end zone before.

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Speaker 2: I think that that would be kind of exactly what

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Speaker 2: balt More would love to do, get a big guy

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Speaker 2: touchdown here. So like Recard at three hundred to one.

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Speaker 3: He has a rushing score this year, right was was

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Speaker 3: it like a I don't think he has to carry

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Speaker 3: this year, but I could I could see that happening

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Speaker 3: to just kind of playoff switch it up.

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Speaker 4: But he goes he runs quite a few routes.

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Speaker 2: He's actually mid middle of the pack on the Ravens

301
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Speaker 2: in terms of their red zone routes run and he

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Speaker 2: has multiple first read.

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Speaker 4: Targets in the red zone.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Week four against the Bills, he scored rushing.

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Speaker 4: He didn't.

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Speaker 2: I think it was the Broncos. It was the Broncos,

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Speaker 2: Like we gain it, I want to say, but you know.

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Speaker 3: He recovered. Derrick Henry ran up the middle, fumbled it,

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Speaker 3: and Record recovered the fumble.

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Speaker 2: So there's also that think it was a rushing score

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Speaker 2: that goes as like other right or something.

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Speaker 1: I think that would count. That would cash, that would

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Speaker 1: for sure cash.

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Speaker 3: He got credit for the touchdown on a Derek Henry

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Speaker 3: design run attempt, nonetheless, but he has two touchdowns on

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Speaker 3: the season, so.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I thought multiple first three targets in scoring positions.

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Speaker 4: Though he's he's.

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Speaker 2: Kind of like a Burton but less, carries more and

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Speaker 2: just kind of strictly strictly a receiver, but he could

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Speaker 2: play some tight end to he can kind of h back.

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Speaker 2: So good good bet here, especially with the Ravens likely

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Speaker 2: to go heavy. Bad weather game, another weather game. To

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Speaker 2: close it out, we got the Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles.

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Speaker 2: Eagles favored by six to total is forty four. Sean Kerner,

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Speaker 2: who do you like in this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So for the Rams side, I'm gonna have to

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Speaker 3: go with Tyler Higbee here at plus four seventy five.

329
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Speaker 3: Had to leave last game with the chess injury. He

330
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Speaker 3: was hospitalized, but seems like it could have been more precautionary.

331
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Speaker 3: He's already back at practice. He's saying he expects to play,

332
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Speaker 3: So assuming he suits up here, I do like him

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Speaker 3: close to five to one odds because you know, he

334
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Speaker 3: wasn't able to make his season debut until week eleven.

335
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Speaker 3: He was recovering from a torn acl from late last season,

336
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Speaker 3: so he had been seeing limited playing time Since his return.

337
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 3: He was ease back in and then he had to

338
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Speaker 3: leave early last week, So assuming he could stay through

339
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,119
Speaker 3: a game fully healthy, he might get the most playing

340
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Speaker 3: time here this week. And since he returned in week eleven,

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Speaker 3: he's led the team with seven red zone targets, the

342
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Speaker 3: next closest with Puka Nakua four, so he's been dominating

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Speaker 3: red zone looks.

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Speaker 1: He had five catches for fifty.

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Speaker 3: Eight yards in just a little over a quarter last

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Speaker 3: week against the Vikings before he to leave the game,

347
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Speaker 3: so he's been one of Stafford's top targets when he

348
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Speaker 3: is on the field, and even after he left the game,

349
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 3: Stafford was still targeting the tight end position heavily. He

350
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,720
Speaker 3: targeted the other three tight ends six total times, even

351
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Speaker 3: got Davis Allen thirteen yard touchdown. So this also, this

352
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Speaker 3: matchup improves with Nakobe Dean ruled out. His backup Arren

353
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Speaker 3: Brooks is a lot of ninety three percent catch rate

354
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Speaker 3: on the season, so I could see the Rams, you know,

355
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Speaker 3: attacking him with Higbee, especially in the red zone here,

356
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Speaker 3: So I love Higbee at plus four seventy five. Even

357
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Speaker 3: if he doesn't see his u usual full time role,

358
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:03,439
Speaker 3: he's at least playing most of the snaps in the

359
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,719
Speaker 3: red zone and he's been Stafford's top target.

360
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Speaker 4: So yeah, so yeah, I know.

361
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,439
Speaker 2: So I actually went back after we talked about it

362
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:14,360
Speaker 2: on the on the Tuesday show, and so he played

363
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 2: before the injury. He played twelve of the fifteen RAMS

364
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,439
Speaker 2: snaps that includes penalties, twelve of fifteen, so that's an

365
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 2: eighty percent snap rate. I believe every single pass play

366
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 2: he played, he and he went out on a I

367
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,879
Speaker 2: think for one run play after a timeout and a

368
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 2: couple of others, but they were run plays. So the

369
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 2: the intention was clearly to feature him in the passing game.

370
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, so was my sixty percent routes run production a

371
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:42,160
Speaker 1: little too low?

372
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:42,360
Speaker 2: Then?

373
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Speaker 4: Yeah?

374
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Speaker 1: I think so.

375
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Speaker 2: I mean I actually put it out probably about seventy percent,

376
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 2: assuming they continue to play, you know, tight ends out

377
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 2: a little bit of a higher clip on early downs.

378
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 2: You know, that's something we haven't seen from them as much,

379
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,919
Speaker 2: you know, heavy one, one personnel team. But you know,

380
00:18:57,960 --> 00:18:59,160
Speaker 2: I thought, I thought it makes I think it makes

381
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 2: a lot of sense. So yeah, I expect it to continue. Yeah,

382
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,679
Speaker 2: I was, I was wondering. I thought it was closer

383
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 2: to like seventy eighty percent routes swing rate. So if

384
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 2: it's around eighty percent, that's he's going to be a

385
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:15,120
Speaker 2: steal At plus four seventy five for the for the Eagles,

386
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,640
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Davante Smith here at plus two ten.

387
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 2: Uh this price is just a bit too high for

388
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,400
Speaker 2: Davante who you know, he scored in seven of fourteen

389
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 2: games this season, so half the games.

390
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 1: Plus you know, a J.

391
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 3: Brown might be playing at less than one hundred percent

392
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,199
Speaker 3: with the knee injury right now. Uh So he was

393
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 3: more of a decoy and a you know, a bookworm.

394
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 3: Last week against the Packers, So that's that's gonna help

395
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,920
Speaker 3: open things up for Davante Smith. This is a great

396
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 3: matchup for Smith too. You know, the Rams use zone

397
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 3: coverage at the third highest rate. Typically, you know, Aj

398
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,159
Speaker 3: Brown just dominates man coverage, but it's it's more of

399
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 3: an even split between he and Smith against zones.

400
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 1: So this helps Smith out.

401
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 3: Plus, you know, Smith lines up in the slot, you know,

402
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 3: fifty five percent of the tide and the Rams have

403
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 3: been vulnerable to slot receivers in terms of touchdowns. They've

404
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 3: allowed the third highest touchdown rate against slot receivers. So

405
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 3: just everything kind of sets up for Smith here. Uh

406
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 3: and I think, yeah, I think he's offering too much

407
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 3: value here at plus two ten.

408
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, this is it's pretty simple. It's zone

409
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 2: defense DeVante Smith's book. It like, that's just it's kind

410
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 2: of an auto it's kind of an auto bet.

411
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,200
Speaker 4: I like him for first touchdown as.

412
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 2: Well, because, uh, you know, the Eagles will love to

413
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 2: kind of go I mean, they go super run heavy

414
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 2: in the first half, but they go even super run

415
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: heavier in the second half. So I think there's probably

416
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: even a little added value compared to a normal player.

417
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 2: You know when you're seeing value on this any time

418
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 2: touchdown on Smith in the Euro in the on the

419
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 2: first Touchdown market as well. So yeah, like Smith, love

420
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 2: the matchup. Yeah, I think Agent aj Brown doesn't look right.

421
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,360
Speaker 2: We talked about that on the on the Tuesday show

422
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 2: as well. Something something's a little off with him. I

423
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 2: don't and maybe he's better, but everything kind of sets

424
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,120
Speaker 2: up if they need to pass, which I do think

425
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 2: they will.

426
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 4: I think this RAM team uh is going to be competed.

427
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,880
Speaker 4: So yeah, I love love Devonte Smith. All right, so

428
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 4: we're gonna do before we get out of here, We're gonna.

429
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,920
Speaker 2: Do a parlay of our two favorites and you can

430
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 2: catch it on the Parlay Express handle on the Action

431
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 2: Network Act if you want to track experts, picks from

432
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 2: Action long shots, parways, things of that nature. Sean, who

433
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 2: you got for your leg of the touchdown parlay.

434
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 4: For this week?

435
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 3: I've got to go Tyle Higby, So get Tyler Higby

436
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 3: at plus four seventy five.

437
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm going with Xavier Worthy at plus two ten.

438
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: Really like both of these, I've bet them already. I'm

439
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: about to go parlay, but this is I think it's

440
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 2: it's rare that you know, we show like good, good

441
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 2: value on starting players in the touchdown market because it's

442
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 2: typically just a very very inflated market because there's no

443
00:21:58,359 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 2: you know, other side.

444
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 4: You can't bet under no or things like that.

445
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 2: So and then you know, totals tend to get you know,

446
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: bet up as the week progresses. So you see a

447
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 2: lot of inflation in this market. But maybe it's because

448
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 2: of the Kelsey side, and maybe you know, I'm guessing

449
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,959
Speaker 2: the you know, the Rams probably have some popular you know,

450
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 2: Poka Nakua, Cooper Cup, Hybrid Williams guys like that, probably

451
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: kind of keeping Higbee in check as well. So yeah,

452
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: like this love this Higbee worthy part way all right,

453
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: So if you want to tell this bet or any

454
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 2: of the other bets we discussed today on the show,

455
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:33,719
Speaker 2: what you want to do is you want to look

456
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 2: for the quick slip links in this episode description.

457
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 4: Super easy.

458
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: You just click the link and it'll open up a

459
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 2: bet slip for you to tail just like that. So

460
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 2: be sure it's to check for the quick slip link

461
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 2: in the episode description. That's going to do it for

462
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 2: us here on the Fantasy Flex NFL Divisional around Touchdown Special,

463
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe to the podcast. We'll be back

464
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 2: next week with our Projections episode and another Touchdown show,

465
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 2: and of course check out fancyabs dot com for all

466
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 2: of our fantasy football content. If you use code flex

467
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 2: forty for forty dollars off. John is on X at

468
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 2: the underscribed Maker. I'm at Chris Raybon. We're at those

469
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 2: same handles on the free award winning Action Network app.

470
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 2: Don't forget to check out Parley Express as well on there,

471
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: and so next time you get this money, Action Network

472
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 2: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

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Speaker 2: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

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Speaker 2: four to seven at one eight hundred gambler