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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as

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Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff,

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Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter, and os im In.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?

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Speaker 1: You know I'm so excited for today. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite days. It's one of my favorite

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Speaker 1: days of the year. It's one of my favorite episodes

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Speaker 1: that we do every year. I get to talk to

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Speaker 1: my favorite and you will guess he's truly become my bff.

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Speaker 1: We talk even beyond the show.

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Speaker 3: It's true.

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Speaker 1: It's a true Hollywood insider, a top talent manager at

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Speaker 1: Mosaic in Los Angeles, a man named one of the

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Speaker 1: forty most powerful people in comedy by The Hollywood Reporter.

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Speaker 1: Most importantly, he's one of America's true Academy Awards savants

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Speaker 1: who can effortlessly rattle off every major category nominee across

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Speaker 1: every year. He's our favorite kind of Sickoh, He's Michael Lasker.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the show. Laskar.

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Speaker 3: Thank you. It's great to be back with you guys.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Chad, Thanks Simon. I want to point out that

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Speaker 3: you're you're reporting on a Hollywood Reporter issue that is

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Speaker 3: like maybe seven or eight years old. Points.

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Speaker 1: I liked that it's in there. Every single year we

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Speaker 1: do it. And I remember when you first came on

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Speaker 1: and we mentioned it. You very humbly try to distract

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Speaker 1: from the mention because at that point it was like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, a year or two old. So at

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Speaker 1: this point it is like five six years old. Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell continues to put it in there. He loves to

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Speaker 1: put it in there. He thinks it brings a lot

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Speaker 1: of credibility and grount no.

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Speaker 3: We should well Matt Mitchell, He's our guru. He knows

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Speaker 3: going on, guys, how are you? I mean, by the way,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna just say not to not to immediately take

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Speaker 3: over the pod, but I'm going to say what I

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Speaker 3: think is very exciting and must be super exciting for

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Speaker 3: you guys. This is a great year for the Oscars.

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Speaker 3: This is a year with a lot of suspense. I mean,

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Speaker 3: last year, of course, Oppenheimer was like mowing everybody down.

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Speaker 3: The previous year, everything everywhere was like on its way

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Speaker 3: towards the end. They're like, I don't know if I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna be right today. There's a lot of good races still,

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Speaker 3: let's break him down. But I mean, I would think,

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Speaker 3: I mean, you guys are the experts, like there's a

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Speaker 3: way to actually make some money this year.

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Speaker 1: I think there is going to be. It's really interesting

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Speaker 1: that we're starting to see a lot of sort of

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Speaker 1: movement in the markets just because some of the awards

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Speaker 1: have been so inconsistent. There have been some controversies. We're

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Speaker 1: going to get into all of it as a reminder.

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Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six y

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. I Bet

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Speaker 1: three six y five must be twenty one or older

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. And

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Speaker 1: before we dive in another reminder, you can officially RSVP

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Speaker 1: for our free Favorites live show event in Chicago. Let's

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Speaker 1: fill this room, folks. This will be for the Elite

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Speaker 1: eight March Madness Games Saturday, March twenty ninth. Joe's Bar

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Speaker 1: on Weed Street also better known as joe'son Weed nearest

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Speaker 1: Lincoln Park in Chicago. Free event, free drinks, free live show.

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Speaker 1: Me Simon plus some other folks going to be joined

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Speaker 1: and please RSVP to reserve your spot. Click the link

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Speaker 1: in this episode's description or just Google Favorites Live Event Chicago. Simon.

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Speaker 1: I'm already losing sleep over like people coming to this thing.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to.

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Speaker 3: Know, like, how big is this place? What do we

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Speaker 3: have to fill here?

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Speaker 1: It's it's a decent size. We got it, we got it.

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Speaker 1: We gotta get some people in there. That's all I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: And I feel extra pressure being from Chicago. Like I've

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Speaker 1: already texted, like you know, you got different text chains

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Speaker 1: and stuff, and I got a text chain with all

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Speaker 1: my friends that I went to college with to Indiana

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Speaker 1: with who all live in Chicago. I'm like, please come,

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Speaker 1: let's make it a reunion. Tell all your kids and

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Speaker 1: tell all your friends, Like, let's just fill this room.

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Speaker 2: Heyay, you're gota fudge numbers. I try to bring in

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Speaker 2: twenty five relatives. That's what my move was in the

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia one.

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Speaker 1: So oh my god, I like every one of my

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Speaker 1: dad's eighty year old friends. They're going to be turning out,

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Speaker 1: that's all. We'll get them a special room. All right,

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Speaker 1: We're ready to dig in here where we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: We're going to focus on the eight major categories. Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress,

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Speaker 1: Supporting Actor, actress, Screenplay, Original screenplay, Adapted screenplay. This will

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Speaker 1: be fun because Lasker, you and I we spoke in

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Speaker 1: December for a little while late in December, and we

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Speaker 1: went through the odds, like on prediction markets, and we

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Speaker 1: talked about sort of what the markets were saying and

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Speaker 1: you gave me your best instincts of what you were hearing, seeing, wondering, thinking,

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Speaker 1: based on your expertise through a bunch of categories. So

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Speaker 1: I tried to remember having not taken notes on that call,

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Speaker 1: because you're my bff, and I don't take notes on

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Speaker 1: those calls.

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Speaker 3: I know we just were just like staring at each

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Speaker 3: other's eyes, even though we're not even We weren't even facetiming.

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Speaker 1: No, no, I was just thinking about your face. So

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Speaker 1: the ones I remember specifically were Best Director and Best

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Speaker 1: Supporting Actress. I added context to those at least I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna try. But let's start with Best Actress. Okay, this

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Speaker 1: one has had so much controversy because Carla Sophia Guess Gohone,

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Speaker 1: the nominee from Amelia Perez, has basically tweeted herself out

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Speaker 1: of the running. Do you want to explain? Do you

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Speaker 1: want me to explain? Do you want to give your

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Speaker 1: take on so well.

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Speaker 3: The take that I would give, and you know not to,

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Speaker 3: you know, not to wade into politics. I think it's

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Speaker 3: actually weirdly irrelevant because I really liked Emilia Prez and

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Speaker 3: I thought she was excellent in the movie. I don't.

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Speaker 3: I never thought she was going to win. So yes,

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Speaker 3: it was a very weird classic Hollywood meltdown that the

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Speaker 3: entire town watched in real time. And I talked to

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Speaker 3: people associated with Netflix who were basically like, we've never

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Speaker 3: seen anything like it, Like, I mean, she really really

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Speaker 3: just went rogue and and so you know, but I

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Speaker 3: don't think she was ever gonna win. And so really

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Speaker 3: this race, as you know, is between to Me Moore

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Speaker 3: and Mikey Madison and it's a really really compelling race.

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Speaker 3: Now let's just go back, you know, two days, which

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Speaker 3: will we do that?

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Speaker 1: Let me just give the odds right now, we got

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Speaker 1: to me more.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's your show.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you, thank you de Me Moore for the substance.

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Speaker 1: She's at minus three hundred, Mikey Madison for Honora plus

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Speaker 1: one sixty five. Uh, and then the rest of the

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Speaker 1: field is pretty far off. So it's really is between

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Speaker 1: those two. So yes, give us your take.

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Speaker 3: Well, so what's interesting is okay, So to me, one

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Speaker 3: Sag on Sunday, and the thing about Sag just as

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Speaker 3: one predictor and one thing I want to you know,

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Speaker 3: maintain and always sort of give the blanket statement is

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Speaker 3: that it's great that there's all these precursor awards, and

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Speaker 3: in a certain way, they do kind of start to

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Speaker 3: calcify a perception as to who's going to win. But

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Speaker 3: for everybody listening at home, there's no body in any

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Speaker 3: of these precursor awards, the PGA, the DJA, SAG, WGA

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Speaker 3: Golden Globes that truly truly correlates to the Academy as

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Speaker 3: of For instance, I think there's like ten thousand members

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Speaker 3: in the Academy. The Acting branch of the Academy is

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Speaker 3: the largest branch. I should have looked it up before

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Speaker 3: we got here, But let's say it's like three to

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Speaker 3: five thousand members are in the actors branch. There's one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty thousand people in SAG who were eligible

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Speaker 3: to vote, you know, in the last week for the

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Speaker 3: SAG Awards, which we're announced on Sunday. So ultimately, like

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Speaker 3: just because of something they did does not mean it's

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Speaker 3: going to completely correlate, because you've got people that are

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Speaker 3: doing day player parts on TV shows voting for who

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Speaker 3: they think should win, you know, best Actress. So with

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Speaker 3: that said, you can still look at this stuff to

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Speaker 3: figure out if there's patterns. So what I decided to

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Speaker 3: do was for a lot of this was go back

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Speaker 3: to like twenty ten basically, like you know, start with

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Speaker 3: that decade and go forward. So from twenty ten to now,

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Speaker 3: ten of the fourteen winners for SAG Best Actress then

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Speaker 3: correlated to the Oscar winner. So that's you guys are numbers,

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Speaker 3: guys like ten to fourteen. That's pretty decent. With that said,

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Speaker 3: and this is my kind of hunch on this race,

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Speaker 3: which will lead into some of the other races I'm

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Speaker 3: thinking about last year. Last year Lily Gladstone beat Emma Stone,

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Speaker 3: and I thought Lily Gladstone was excellent in Killers of

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Speaker 3: the Flower Moon. And there were two narratives she had.

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Speaker 3: One was there was a question the entire year, which

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Speaker 3: was was she the lead actress or was she the

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Speaker 3: supporting actress because she's really kind of the supporting part

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Speaker 3: of that movie. But the other issue or not issue

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Speaker 3: that the narrative was she's a Native American woman playing

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Speaker 3: a Native American character in a movie that is about

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Speaker 3: the plight of Native American people. And you know, there's

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Speaker 3: a sense of like, well, we want to honor this

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Speaker 3: because this representation has not been around enough, and I

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Speaker 3: picked Loly Gladstone to win at the Oscars, and the

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Speaker 3: minute Michelle Yo announced Emma Stone winning, I was like,

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Speaker 3: I'm an idiot. Of course Emmastone was winning the whole time,

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Speaker 3: because if you had watched Poor Things, it was impossible

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Speaker 3: to not come away thinking Emma Stone was every single

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Speaker 3: inch of that movie. She was absolutely brilliant. Not to

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Speaker 3: mention she's kind of one of the most famous people

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Speaker 3: working in Hollywood. And when you go back to like

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Speaker 3: who's winning two Oscars for Best Actor or Actress before

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Speaker 3: they're forty, that is a very very rarefied list. My

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Speaker 3: point is, now you look at de Me versus Mikey,

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Speaker 3: I love to me Moore. I mean, I'm forty five

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Speaker 3: years old. Demi Moore was a huge part of my childhood.

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Speaker 3: A few good men, you know, like she was married

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Speaker 3: to Bruce willis my all time favorite actor. Like I

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Speaker 3: love Deme Moore. I'm rooting for Demi more just as

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Speaker 3: a human being, and she's run an amazing press to her.

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Speaker 3: If you watch The Substance, it is truly a fifty

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Speaker 3: to fifty movie. I mean, by design, she takes the

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Speaker 3: Substance and then Margaret Qally, you know, appears not to

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Speaker 3: give too much of it away, and then the rest

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Speaker 3: of the movie they're going back and forth sharing the

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Speaker 3: body and she's amazing in it, but it's like a

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Speaker 3: fifty to fifty split if you watch A Nora, not

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Speaker 3: unlike Poor Things. Every inch of that movie is Mikey Madison.

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Speaker 3: And not to get into the other categories, but obviously

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Speaker 3: A Noor is surging, and we'll come back to that

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Speaker 3: later and we get to like Best Picture and Director,

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Speaker 3: but I do feel like, frankly, if there's this much

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Speaker 3: love for Anora, well, how can you have that much

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Speaker 3: love for it and not have the love for Mikey Madison.

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Speaker 3: The thing going against her has been that she's twenty

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Speaker 3: five years old. The youngest actress to ever win the

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Speaker 3: Best Actress oscar is Marley Mattlin. She won in nineteen

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Speaker 3: eighty six for Children of a Lesser God. She was

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Speaker 3: twenty one. Now, there are young actresses that win relatively frequently.

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Speaker 3: Jennifer Lawrence won when she was really young for Silver

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Speaker 3: Lenning's Playbook. It's the best actor category where typically young

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Speaker 3: men do not win. Ironically, we'll get to this later,

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Speaker 3: but when Adrian Brody won in two thousand and two

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Speaker 3: for The Pianist. He was the youngest actress. Since he

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Speaker 3: might have beaten the record, I have to look it up,

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Speaker 3: but since Richard Dreyfus won in nineteen seventy seven for

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Speaker 3: The Goodbye Girl. So typically best actor goes to like

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Speaker 3: older men, and we'll get to that between Tim Shallmay

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Speaker 3: and Adrian. Now now Adrian's the older man. So but

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Speaker 3: this is an amazing race. I mean, Mikey Madison, you

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Speaker 3: know one Indie Spirit Award, she won the BAFTA, which

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Speaker 3: is not nothing. Demi won the Golden Globe to me

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Speaker 3: one sag. Demi has a huge following, obviously in Hollywood

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Speaker 3: for years. I think there's probably a sense that like,

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Speaker 3: will do me be nominated again? Who knows? Whereas Mikey's

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Speaker 3: at the beginning of her career and she can be

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Speaker 3: nominated five more times for all we know. This one

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Speaker 3: is such a toss up. But I am going to

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Speaker 3: go with Mikey Madison.

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Speaker 1: I'm shocked because I feel like you said two things

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Speaker 1: that actually contradict your theory about Emma Stone Demi Moore.

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Speaker 1: Demi Mour is the significantly more famous actor in this case. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there is a history of wanting to give the award

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Speaker 1: as a career award for someone at this stage when

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Speaker 1: they haven't won before, haven't been appreciated, haven't been acknowledged.

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Speaker 1: And I love that your reference point for Demi Moore

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Speaker 1: is being married to Bruce Willis and if you have

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Speaker 1: read and like in the movie's Disclosure and a few

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Speaker 1: Good Men, and I'm thinking, like you know, seeing almost Fire, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: because because I'm because that's my reference point. But number one,

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Speaker 1: she's more famous. Number two, I do think in the

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Speaker 1: substance she had, I do feel like she carried that

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Speaker 1: movie and margaret quality was amazing in the movie, but

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Speaker 1: like her acting was much more muted to me, almost

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Speaker 1: literally like she just had didn't have a lot of lines,

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Speaker 1: like in the first thirty five to forty minutes of

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Speaker 1: the movie, whereas to me more was she felt like

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Speaker 1: a different person to me compared to her public persona Simon,

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Speaker 1: you're nodding back and forth. I think you're with me.

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Speaker 2: I think it is all part of the game. Like

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Speaker 2: there's a couple of things we'll talk about. He's coming up.

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Speaker 2: But it's like even if like you just said, it's career, right,

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Speaker 2: It's not just you know that, it's that part of

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Speaker 2: the game, right, it's not just for the one movie.

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Speaker 2: They've done it for their body of work. And like

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Speaker 2: you said, she knows a lot of these people in

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Speaker 2: this business better than you know, unfortunately for Mickey. But

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be betting here on the dog. So I

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Speaker 2: already know where I'm going. I mean, I get it,

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Speaker 2: DEMI should be minus three hundred. But you know me, Chaed,

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Speaker 2: I like the dog. I like the upside of the

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Speaker 2: value here where what he's talking about, Like we've seen

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Speaker 2: last minute flips here in the oscars, right, they've gotten

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Speaker 2: the favorites wrong because it is kind of the human element, right,

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Speaker 2: they don't know how these people are going to vote.

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Speaker 2: All they can do is just project. So you know me, Jed,

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Speaker 2: I'm a sucker for the dog.

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Speaker 3: Well, the other thing too, keep in mind, like you

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Speaker 3: have to go back to, like, okay, what are the

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Speaker 3: narratives we have, like get you get a narrative on

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Speaker 3: the day of the nominations, and you get a narrative

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Speaker 3: now basically to this moment when we've had every precursor

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Speaker 3: award except obviously the Oscars. The narrative on the day

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Speaker 3: of the nominations were a couple of things. Over reformers

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Speaker 3: were a complete unknown substance actually, which helps to me more.

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Speaker 3: And I'm still here. The the Brazilian film that got

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Speaker 3: into the Best Picture race and Fernanda Taurus got you know,

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Speaker 3: Best Actress nomination. Those were the over performers, So that

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Speaker 3: would bode well for to me more. But then when

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Speaker 3: you look at the next two months, the massive overperformer

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Speaker 3: has been an Aura, which you know, Best Picture of

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Speaker 3: the PGA's Best Director of the DJA. We'll get to DGA.

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Speaker 3: That's a highly correlative, you know, one to one over

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Speaker 3: like ninety years, you know, winning Critics Choice Awards, did

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Speaker 3: not win baf TO or did not win BAFTA or SAG.

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Speaker 3: We'll come back to that. I have some stats, and

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Speaker 3: Golden Globes went to Brutalist. But and I'm very much

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Speaker 3: on the record here, like I don't think the Golden

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Speaker 3: Globes matter. I mean, the Golden Globes are not even

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Speaker 3: voted on people who even work in the business. Technically,

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Speaker 3: you know, you could at least make a correlation to say,

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Speaker 3: well the producers are you know, there's a certain body

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Speaker 3: of producers in the Oscar, you know, in the Academy

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Speaker 3: blah blah blah blah. So to me, I just feel

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Speaker 3: like you have to pay attention to Like it's been

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Speaker 3: a weird year of movies. I thought it was actually

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Speaker 3: a very good year, despite they're not being some massive heavyweight.

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Speaker 3: Everybody agreed was the Second Coming. But in talking to

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Speaker 3: a lot of Academy members and voters, one of the

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Speaker 3: movies people always come back to is Anora, And by

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Speaker 3: the way, a lot of the movies people come back

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Speaker 3: to his Brutalist. But it just seems like Brutalist is

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Speaker 3: like not dead on arrival, but like you know, is

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Speaker 3: not going to win Best Picture. I think feel like

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Speaker 3: it had its moment, it had its money. So we

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Speaker 3: like Mikey Madison here, well you guys do well, you listen.

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Speaker 3: I'm happy it's going to be to me, Yeah, but

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Speaker 3: I do.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk. I want to get to I

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Speaker 1: want to get to director, because Lasker, when you and

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Speaker 1: I spoke, Brady Corbett, I think was who directed The Brutalist. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: was the odds on favorite at the time, and I

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Speaker 1: had just seen a Noora. I freaking loved it. I

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Speaker 1: thought it was amazing. Sean Baker, the director of A

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Speaker 1: Noor He was I think the second shortest odds now

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Speaker 1: Sean Baker minus one eighty five Brady Corbett plus one

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I feel like, if Demi Moore has had

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Speaker 1: an incredible OSCARS campaign, Britty Corbett peaked and then has

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Speaker 1: gone downhill since he gave that speech, and now he

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Speaker 1: just continues to look like a very precious, unself aware director.

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Speaker 1: And that, along with the fact Anora has gotten so

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Speaker 1: much more heat the past few months, has catapulted Sean Baker.

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Speaker 3: Here's what I would say. I think, you know, I

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Speaker 3: always want to be politically correct because I work in

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Speaker 3: this business. I think that Seawan Baker's speeches at the

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Speaker 3: DGA and at the Indie Spirit Awards were like really

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Speaker 3: strong and really big rally cries, and look, they're both

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Speaker 3: incredible artists. They both have been very on the record,

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Speaker 3: like these guys. I a producer who produced some of

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Speaker 3: Sewan's movies, who produced a film for one of my clients,

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Speaker 3: was telling me, like, Sean Baker doesn't moonlight for the

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Speaker 3: studios and rewrite rom comms for them when he's not

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Speaker 3: making movies. He is an independent filmmaker. He goes from

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Speaker 3: one project to the next. He makes it every money

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Speaker 3: he can make. He literally said in his speech on

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Speaker 3: Saturday the Indian Spirit Awards. They doesn't have children, and

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Speaker 3: if he had children, he wasn't sure he'd be able

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Speaker 3: to survive because of the way him and his wife

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Speaker 3: you know live, you know, making these movies. And Brady

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Speaker 3: has been very open on many many interviews and on

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Speaker 3: many podcasts about you know, the life they're living. Hasn't

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Speaker 3: made anything off The Brutalist. I thought The Brutalist was

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Speaker 3: absolutely incredible. Definitely when it like really hit in December,

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Speaker 3: it was like, Okay, Brutalist is here to stay. He's

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Speaker 3: going to do it. I don't think the Golden Globe

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Speaker 3: speech helped, but I think on the bigger level, you know,

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Speaker 3: I loved the movie, but it's not a movie for everybody,

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Speaker 3: and it's not a movie where like it landed for everybody.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of people that are like that first

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Speaker 3: half was incredible, second half less incredible. Wasn't sure that

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Speaker 3: the coda like totally landed, And there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: people think that it's an absolute masterpiece, but it does

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Speaker 3: feel like it's faded. I was very surprising didn't win

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Speaker 3: Best Director from the DGAs, and frankly very surprised they

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Speaker 3: didn't win to the PGAs because what a lot of

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Speaker 3: us thought was, we have a bunch of producers voting

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Speaker 3: on this and the whole story of the Brutalist. One

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Speaker 3: of the stories has been that they made it for

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Speaker 3: ten million bucks and it looks like fifty So like,

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Speaker 3: why would the producers vote for that? Because that's really

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Speaker 3: impressive and they didn't care. And by the way, Honora

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Speaker 3: was made for like, you know, a similar amount of money.

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Speaker 3: And also is it I mean, people love Anora, so

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Speaker 3: I think you know, yeah, I mean you can't. You

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Speaker 3: don't have really good odds on Sean Baker, but it

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Speaker 3: would be very hard to bet against him. The DGA

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Speaker 3: almost always correlates, and sometimes when it doesn't correlate, that's

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Speaker 3: because I have to look up the years. I mean,

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Speaker 3: one of them, notably was nineteen ninety five. In nineteen

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Speaker 3: ninety five, Ron Howard wins Best Director to the DGA

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Speaker 3: for Paul thirteen and then is not nominated for the

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Speaker 3: for the Oscars. And that's when Mel Gibson wins for Braveheart.

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Speaker 3: So there's years like that where the winner doesn't correlate.

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Speaker 3: But that's all so a very weird exception when the

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Speaker 3: winner of the DGA is also nominated for the Oscar.

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Speaker 3: I'd have to look it up, but like I think,

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Speaker 3: maybe the last time where it was in both fields

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Speaker 3: was I want to say, Sam Mendy's one for nineteen

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Speaker 3: seventeen of the DGAs and then of course Bank Juneo

391
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Speaker 3: won at the Oscars, which was a massive like surge

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Speaker 3: that night because he won so many Academy Awards. But

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Speaker 3: typically it does correlate, I mean almost always, So I

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Speaker 3: think you have to go over Sean Baker for director

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Speaker 3: right now, Well, you.

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Speaker 1: Could parlay Sean Baker at minus win eighty five and

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Speaker 1: to me more at minus three hundred and get a

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Speaker 1: little better, right, Simon.

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Speaker 3: That's it.

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Speaker 1: That's what we like to do.

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Speaker 3: Well, by the way, speaking of that, and this will

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Speaker 3: come to a non of the big eight categories, but

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Speaker 3: it's a category I want to bring up in a

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Speaker 3: second as it relates to Best Picture. Can you guys

405
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Speaker 3: actually bet in real time as the show's going on,

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Speaker 3: like can you place it? It has to be locked

407
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Speaker 3: in now they close it like an hour before. Usually

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Speaker 3: got it.

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Speaker 2: As soon as I hit the red carpet, they almost

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Speaker 2: all markets go off just because it's like that's where

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Speaker 2: the information is being shared, right, that's where the leaks

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Speaker 2: start happening.

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Speaker 3: Once into the building, Well once when we get the

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Speaker 3: best picture. I want to throw out a side category

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Speaker 3: that could connect to that, but we'll come back to

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Speaker 3: that in a second.

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Speaker 1: All right, So we're going with Anora and Sean Baker.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're best director.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Substance to me, we're going to go on

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Speaker 1: to Best Original Screenplay. And this is a race between

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Speaker 1: again a Noora, which is about minus I think two

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Speaker 1: thirty and Substance, which is plus two eighty and a

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Speaker 1: Real Pain is sort of drifting around on there plus

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Speaker 1: seven fifty. That's the Jesse Eisenberg movie that he did

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Speaker 1: with Kieran Culkin. So Anora and Substance both amazing, amazing movies.

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Speaker 1: I felt like the last twenty minutes of the Substance

427
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 1: kind of went from mind boggling horror slash big think

428
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: piece to kind of silly and lazy, whereas Anura like

429
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 1: went from this is a fun, cool, sexy romp with

430
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 1: a really smart lead and kind of a dopey supporting

431
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 1: actor and had a crazy pivot that just made it

432
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 1: more and more insane in a really good way. Simon,

433
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 1: you agree with me on this, you're shaking your head.

434
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 2: I thought it was good where it just felt like

435
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 2: I don't want to age myself here. But it feels

436
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 2: like so many movies nowadays are four forte and above,

437
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 2: and you don't really get too many twenties in like

438
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 2: twenties in below that's actually well done, right, like you

439
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,479
Speaker 2: get kind of these romp comps or whatever. But this

440
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 2: felt like the actual thing of someone from this age,

441
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 2: from my generation, wrote a piece of their life into

442
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 2: a good, actual movie with actual good characters like not

443
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 2: the shit on female roles, but a lot of times

444
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 2: they don't keep them real, right. It's all about either

445
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 2: them chasing a boy or them going through heartbreak or

446
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 2: just something stupid in general, they don't really develop as

447
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 2: a character in this movie. I felt like they really

448
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 2: developed the female role in these characters, which is great

449
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 2: for this time period. Right, it's all about you know,

450
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 2: people my age wanting to get I want to see

451
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: things about the things they've gone through in their lives,

452
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: and it felt like we had a dead period, right

453
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,479
Speaker 2: and the nineties we had a ton, the early two

454
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: thousands we had a ton. And then we've had a

455
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 2: run here of maybe one every two years of a

456
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 2: time piece of young people in my age living in

457
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: New York or Chicago, LA and showing what the life

458
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 2: is like there. So I'm right there with each other.

459
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: That's why I'm shocked to see it's picked up steam

460
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 2: here right Like every category we're going through right here,

461
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 2: they're kind of the favorite, right, So it's interesting they've

462
00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 2: picked up so much steam such so late here.

463
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 3: Well, I think you make a good point. I mean,

464
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 3: you know, some people on other podcasts have talked about

465
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 3: like is Anora does have too much sex to win

466
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 3: like Best Picture, and people reference that, you know, the

467
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 3: only X rated film to ever win Best Picture was

468
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 3: Midnight Cowboy in nineteen sixty nine, and that movie would

469
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 3: not be rady to X sday. That was just because

470
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 3: of the time. There's not even that much sex in it.

471
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 3: I think the thing about Anora what connected to people

472
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: is that you just saw her as this real person.

473
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 3: You didn't see her she wasn't a prostitute. She was

474
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 3: a stripper who sometimes would you know, you know, do

475
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 3: other things, you know, as the movie sets up, and

476
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 3: it really I think tapped you into like this is

477
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 3: just a young person who's trying to live their life

478
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,439
Speaker 3: and has dreams. And I think a lot of what

479
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 3: people enjoy about the movie is like it's this debate

480
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 3: of like is she dumb? Is she not dumb? Like

481
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: she really thinks this guy's in love with it, She

482
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 3: really thinks she's gonna she's gonna be married to this guy.

483
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 3: Like she's surprised that it turns out he's just a

484
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 3: video game loving you know, team you know, and all

485
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 3: that stuff. So what a lot of people thought going

486
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 3: into the nomination you know season, was that, oh, Honora

487
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 3: would be a lock to win Original Screenplay because that

488
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 3: would be the Constellation Prize for Anura. Other movies would

489
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 3: win the other big awards, and now turned out to

490
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 3: have all this momentum. The thing about the substance, And

491
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 3: I do think the screenplay, I mean, the movie is

492
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 3: way too long, but the screenplay is really good. And

493
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 3: what it's saying obviously about like modern beauty and societal standards,

494
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 3: you know, specifically for women, but not to compare one

495
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 3: French movie to another. But I do think back to

496
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 3: Anatomy of a Fall, you know, the movie that won

497
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 3: Best Original Screenplay last year. That movie, to me just

498
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 3: had so much more momentum in the way people talked

499
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 3: about it and what it was sort of analyzing about,

500
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 3: you know, marriage. I think CORALI you know, obviously getting

501
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 3: not director nomination, right a nomination producer nomination is huge.

502
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 3: I still don't think she's gonna win. What's interesting in

503
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 3: talking to a lot of people the last few days,

504
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 3: people do not want to count out a real pain.

505
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 3: Yet he won the Indie Spirit Award on Saturday. The

506
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 3: Town Loves when when actors also write. Emma Thompson adapted

507
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 3: Sentences of Ability in Night ten a five won the

508
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 3: Oscar for Best Adaptation. So I would not entirely be

509
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 3: surprised if he pulled an upset. I still think and

510
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 3: I'm and I'm going you know, as you'll see later,

511
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 3: with just the momentum of like you've got to think

512
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 3: about the end of the night and the next morning

513
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 3: of like what was the story and the only viable

514
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 3: story going into this Academy Awards is anura you know,

515
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 3: it's not going to be a year where something wins

516
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 3: seven eight nine Oscars. Will get back to some of

517
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: those stats when we get to Best Picture. But I

518
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: think you have to bet on Anora because it would

519
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 3: be surprising to me that like Substance or real Pain

520
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 3: is winning that, and then he's winning Director in Picture

521
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 3: and she's winning actress if we think she's winning actress.

522
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 3: But I don't know. I mean, it's it's another good

523
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 3: you know, up in the air category. I've talked to

524
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 3: Academy voters. They voted for September fifth. You know, that's

525
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,719
Speaker 3: obviously not going to win, but you just never know.

526
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 3: That's the beauty. And to remind your listeners at home,

527
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 3: the way the Academy Awards work is that the individual

528
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 3: branches nominate their respective members. So all the writers nominate

529
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 3: the Writing comide. But for this Sunday, everybody who's voting

530
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 3: votes for the entire ballot. So a cinematographer is voting

531
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 3: for screenplay, an actor is voting for screenplay. You know,

532
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 3: somebody who's an at large member because they're in the

533
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 3: business as an agent or a manager or a lawyer,

534
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 3: they're voting for everything. So it's not all just writers

535
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 3: looking at the craft of writing. I do think also,

536
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 3: I mean Sean Baker, and same thing for Brady and

537
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 3: same thing for CORALI. But like Sean Baker has, so

538
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: you know, in a major way, been this kind of

539
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 3: outlier of like I'm not in the system, and he's

540
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 3: made other movies that have flirted with the Academy Awards.

541
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 3: I mean, he made The Florida Project, which a lot

542
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 3: of people thought I was going for Best Picture. It wasn't,

543
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 3: but Wilm Dafoe is nominated for Best Supporting Actor. So

544
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 3: like he's been kind of like knocking me on the

545
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 3: door of the Academy and people really really like him

546
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 3: and they really respect him. So I think it could

547
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: be a very big night for him. Sean Baker. People

548
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 3: really really like him and they really respect him.

549
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: What do you think happens to that guy's career if

550
00:27:59,000 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: he wins.

551
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 3: I've talked about this. I asked my friend who produced

552
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: a couple movies for him, and she was like, nothing,

553
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 3: he will just keep making movies. He's not gonna You know,

554
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 3: Edward Berger, who's a genius. Every two months you open

555
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 3: up the trades and it's like Edward Berger is doing

556
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 3: Ocean's fourteen. Edward Berger's rebooting The Boorn Supremacy. Like Edward Berger,

557
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 3: who I thought was amazing, we'll talk about Conclave. He

558
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 3: seems to like really be like I'm in Hollywood and like,

559
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,199
Speaker 3: give me Hollywood stuff to do. I want to make

560
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 3: huge movies. Sean Baker is an artist. You know, he's

561
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 3: just going to go make his next story. I literally

562
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: asked a friend this and she was like, yeah, he's

563
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,479
Speaker 3: He's not going to go do a weekly for Warner Brothers,

564
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 3: for Turner fifty grand to help him on a movie.

565
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: That's like not who he is.

566
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 1: Simon, You and I are artists.

567
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 3: Oh, you guys are total artists.

568
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, we would never we would never ever. So I

569
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: like the idea. I like the idea of Jesse Eisenberg

570
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: getting a little bit of love at plus seven to fifty.

571
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: I liked the real pain. I didn't love it.

572
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 2: Did you watch his speech the other night?

573
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: I thought his speech was great. I think last year

574
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: that's maybe why you were thinking Emma Stone is because

575
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: he kept referring to Emma Stone in his speech. I thought,

576
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: and I thought the speech was great. I thought the

577
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: movie was to me okay, and we'll get to Kieran Culkin.

578
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: I didn't know you could, you know, be in a

579
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: lead for you know, supporting actor or actor. I forgot

580
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: what he is for playing yourself apparently that.

581
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: Playing character you already played on a TV show on HBO.

582
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: It's layers, that's basically what he's doing. And he's just,

583
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: you know, he seems to be very charming, and people

584
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: like to have him at award show, so they just

585
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 1: keep letting him win. All right, let's talk about Best

586
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: Picture here for a second, because we're just we're coming

587
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: out of original Screenplay. Okay, Honora minus three hundred Conclave

588
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: you just mentioned h plus two fifteen, then The Brutalist

589
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: plus six hundred, Complete Unknown plus twenty eight hundred. So

590
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 1: I thought Conclave was amazing, and Laskar, you and I

591
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,959
Speaker 1: and Simon, I think it was two years ago. The

592
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: Menu to me was one of the best movies of

593
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: the year.

594
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 3: You do here on the record, and you love that movie.

595
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: I actually just watched it again. You can see it now.

596
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 1: I think it's on Netflix. It's so freaking good. It

597
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: is so good. Conclave obviously reminds me a little bit

598
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 1: of that movie, and because the actors and all that

599
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. But give me your take on Conclave

600
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: or is this just anora?

601
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 3: This one is so up in the air. I mean,

602
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 3: first of all, I really really liked Conclave. I thought yea,

603
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 3: and I actually watched it twice, and the second time

604
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 3: I watched it with my seventy eight year old mother

605
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 3: and she gasped when it ended at the ending, which

606
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: was hilarious to watch in real time. I thought it

607
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 3: was great. I mean, I do think, and I want

608
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 3: to be careful not to spoil for people haven't seen it.

609
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: I still am not sure that the ending entirely works

610
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 3: of Conclave, like the you know, the kind of what

611
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 3: you find out at the very very end. And I

612
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: do think that a lot of these movies that tend

613
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 3: to win Best Picture sometimes they do come down to

614
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 3: like the ending. Like you know, I look back at

615
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen when Green Book beat Roma, and you know,

616
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 3: if you just look at it from like a movie

617
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 3: going standpoint, you know, Roma was a piece of art.

618
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 3: Green Book was a movie that like made you feel

619
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 3: and you remember back to like when the door knocks

620
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 3: at the end of the movie and Marshal Ali is

621
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 3: standing there freezing and they hug each other, and that's

622
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 3: why that movie wins Best Picture. That's what people want

623
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 3: and no different than CODA. And you know twenty twenty

624
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 3: which is non by Land and twenty twenty one is CODA.

625
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 3: Those were weird years because of COVID. But like you

626
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 3: look at CODA when the dad says, I want to

627
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 3: hear you sing and he puts his hand on her

628
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 3: neck to feel her vocal chords. That's why these movies win.

629
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: And I kind of thought Conclave botched that a little

630
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 3: bit with you know the twist. I loved the movie

631
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: and I thought he was directed within an inch of

632
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 3: its life, and the editing and the photography and the acting,

633
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 3: and I could watch Ray Fines do literally anything. He's

634
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 3: never won an Oscar. He was nominated in ninety three

635
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 3: for Shindler's List for Sporting Actor, in ninety six for

636
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 3: Best Actor for The English Patient, and he's been overlooked

637
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 3: like seven times. Should have been nominated for the Grand

638
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: Buddapest Hotel, like another amazing, another movie. He's amazing and

639
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 3: an amazing film. So let's look at some of the

640
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 3: Best Picture of stats. So Honora won the PGA, the DGA,

641
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 3: the WGA, the CCA that's Critics' choice. Brutalist won Golden Globes.

642
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 3: That's like a distant memory. And now Conclave has won

643
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 3: BAFTA and SAG. Okay, all right, let's go to SAG.

644
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 3: They call it Best Ensemble. That's the version of Best Picture.

645
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 3: SAG has been around for twenty nine years. Fifteen of

646
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 3: the twenty nine years of SAG, the winners that have

647
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 3: won Best Ensemble one Best Picture. You guys are numbers, guys,

648
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 3: not good. That's not good. That's fifty to fifty. That's

649
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 3: not good at all. So now there's all kinds of

650
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 3: like substats out there about, like, you know, get people

651
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 3: that are way smarter than me, that are like, you know, well,

652
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 3: the last time a movie only one X and Y

653
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: and one SAG one Best Picture, and like one of

654
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 3: those was Coda, you know what I mean. So this

655
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 3: has happened recently. The way I look at uh SAG ensemble,

656
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 3: to be quite honest, is sometimes I think people are

657
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 3: truly voting for an ensemble, you know, literally the word

658
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 3: and Conclave is an ensemble. You know, you've got like

659
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 3: nine people with major parts. Anora has four people in it, right,

660
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 3: it has you know, Mikey, it has the guy who's nominated,

661
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:42,959
Speaker 3: you know, the Russian you know guy that she has

662
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 3: Russian Timothy right, then it has the Russian Timothy Schell

663
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 3: made the other guy, and then it has the older

664
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 3: guy who I loved. I need to write their names

665
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:55,239
Speaker 3: down for a future podcast appearance. But it's it. It's

666
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 3: a four person movie. I don't think people see it

667
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 3: as an ensemble. So with all that said, there's only

668
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 3: two movies really now that feel like they could win,

669
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 3: and it's Anora. In Conclave, there was a feeling on

670
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 3: the day the nominations, a complete Unknown had a real chance.

671
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 3: People thought because of the preferential ballot that it could

672
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 3: be so many people's ones, twos, and threes it could

673
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,959
Speaker 3: get there. I loved that movie, but I just don't

674
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 3: feel like it's shown any real momentum in any of

675
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 3: the other precursor awards. I never thought Wicked was going

676
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 3: to win. Brutalist is completely faded, so it's a nourra

677
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 3: in Conclave. Now. The funny thing about Conclave is that

678
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 3: it is the quintessential older Academy movie, you know. And

679
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 3: I talked to one Academy member that is in his seventies,

680
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 3: like a month ago, and he was like, it's a

681
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 3: process movie. And people in Hollywood love process movies because

682
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 3: it's kind of like making a movie, you know, so

683
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 3: it has a shot. Doesn't matter that it didn't get

684
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: a Best Director nomination. Coda did not have a Best

685
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,919
Speaker 3: Director nomination and one Best Picture. Argo in twenty twelve

686
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 3: did not have a Best Director anomation nomination. One Best Picture.

687
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: Driving Miss Daisy in nineteen eighty nine did not have

688
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 3: a Best Director nomination one Best Picture happens all the time.

689
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 3: The Best Director race was unbelievably competitive this year. So

690
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 3: what I was going to talk about earlier, and this

691
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 3: is why I asked you, you know, Chad and Simon

692
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 3: about because you vote during the show. So let's talk

693
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 3: about Best Editing. Okay, pre nineteen ninety nine, usually the

694
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 3: movie that won Best Picture also won Best Editing because

695
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,439
Speaker 3: there was a feeling that like, if it's the best

696
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 3: movie of the year, it was obviously the best edited

697
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 3: film of the year, because that means the movie is

698
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 3: put together in the best possible way. If you look

699
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 3: in the nineties, movies like Schindler's List, Dance with the Wolves, Unforgiven,

700
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 3: Forrest Gump, you know, on and on and on. From

701
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety nine until now, only nine films that have

702
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 3: won Best Editing also won Best Picture, right, So it

703
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 3: doesn't correlate now at all. It did correlate the last

704
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: two years Obenheimer won Best Editing and everything everywhere all

705
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 3: once one Best Editing. But what happens now a lot

706
00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 3: of times is Best Editing will go to maybe a

707
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: more unique film, like in nineteen Night nine it went

708
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 3: to the Matrix, you know, so it might go to

709
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: a movie that like really stood out for its editing.

710
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 3: One year, one of the Born movies, I think The Supremacy,

711
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 3: the second one one Best Editing. People remember those movies

712
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 3: were edited in really cool ways, like how they did

713
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 3: the fight scenes. So meanwhile, the five Best Picture, the

714
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:24,760
Speaker 3: five Best Editing nominees are Amelia Prez, Conclave, Wicked, Anora,

715
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 3: and The Brutalist. Okay, well, we know Amelia Prez is

716
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 3: not winning Best Picture, and we don't think Wicked's winning

717
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,399
Speaker 3: Best Picture, and we don't think The Brutal is winning

718
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 3: Best Picture. And what do you have left Conclave and Anora?

719
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 3: So here's my point. When you're watching the show on Sunday.

720
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 3: If Conclave wins Best Editing, assume it's probably winning Best Picture.

721
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 3: You know. And by the way, it's interesting that movie

722
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 3: was edited. The editing was incredible. Now I think the

723
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 3: editing of Anora was incredible too. I think the movie

724
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 3: was too long. I think most movies are too long today.

725
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 3: But you know, so you have to really that can

726
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 3: be a really strong precursor award going back up to

727
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:02,800
Speaker 3: Best Picture. I mean, I still will go with Anura

728
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 3: because I'm just going to go with the momentum. And

729
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 3: I also think that if you are looking at the

730
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 3: proferential system of like what's in the top one, twos

731
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 3: and threes, you know, the movies I have heard anecdotally

732
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 3: about from the most people that I talked to that

733
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 3: are in the Academy are a nourra burillist and actually

734
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 3: a complete unknown. Because one of the things that a

735
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: complete unknown did, which you can imagine, I mean, you're

736
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: not a boomer, Chad, You're you're right after the boomers,

737
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 3: but the boomers right after. I would say, okay, twenty.

738
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,839
Speaker 1: Years after, long long after, Okay, okay, very long after.

739
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 3: Okay, excuse me, but I'm telling you the people I

740
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 3: had two clients in New York who went to one

741
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 3: of the Complete Unknown Oscar screenings and they were like,

742
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 3: we were the youngest. These guys are both in their forties,

743
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 3: Like we were actually a client and a friend, and

744
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: they were like, we were twenty years younger than everybody

745
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 3: in the room. And people went nuts, and as you know,

746
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 3: and I felt this way. I felt this way about

747
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 3: Elvis a couple of years ago, which was that what

748
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 3: And I like the movie Elvis, but I think Elvis

749
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 3: resonated with the Academy is that a quarter of the

750
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 3: Academy was alive for Elvis Presley and they were like,

751
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 3: oh my god, like this is my childhood. This is

752
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 3: when I was twenty, this when I was thirty. I

753
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 3: remember Elvis Presley and I loved to Complete Unknown. I

754
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 3: was so happy Mangold was nominated and Monica Barbara. I

755
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 3: had them both on my nomination list that I made

756
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 3: the night before like a nerd. And I thought the

757
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 3: movie was great. I thought Mangold crushed it. And I

758
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 3: think there is that feeling of like he went out

759
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 3: and he recreated the Bob Dylan these four years that

760
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 3: a lot of us know. And when I talked to

761
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 3: a friend of mine whose mother is a retired producer

762
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 3: who's in the Academy, and she told me that her

763
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 3: mother and her dad literally got out all their Bob

764
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 3: Dylan albums like that week and like put them on

765
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 3: the mantle, like to kind of like pay respect, you know,

766
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 3: back to Bob Dylan. So I would say to me,

767
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 3: those are only three movies that really have a chance.

768
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 3: I think the Brutalis is out a lot of the

769
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 3: other movies in the top ten, you know, from you know,

770
00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 3: Nickel Boys to you know, I'm Still here, you know,

771
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 3: to the Substance. I mean, they ever never going to win.

772
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: So I think you have to go with an Aura.

773
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: All right, then it's going to be anura. We're getting

774
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: into a noora like sweep category at this point.

775
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 3: Well that's where my head is at. I'm sorry to

776
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 3: rupt you. Is that is at the end of it,

777
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 3: you'll be like, okay, anor one picture director, screenplay actress,

778
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 3: maybe picked up another one, and then you'll be like okay,

779
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 3: one like four or five oscars, And that will make

780
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 3: sense because the other thing I was gonna mention earlier

781
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 3: is that which I touched on, is that you know,

782
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 3: a lot of these Best Picture winners now they win

783
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 3: less than five Oscars, so like Aubenheimer and everything everywhere,

784
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 3: each one seven. But then when you look back in

785
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 3: the previous you know, several years Code one three, no

786
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 3: Medland one three, Parasite one four, green Book one three,

787
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 3: Spotlight one two, are Go one three, So we're definitely

788
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 3: still out of this like huge epic, you know phase.

789
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 3: I mean, if The Brutalist ended up being the dominating movie,

790
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 3: that could have won like seven, eight or nine, but

791
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 3: just not meant to be. But I'm sorry I interrupted you.

792
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,240
Speaker 1: Now, when you look back on history, green Book winning

793
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: three Oscars is gonna be one of those years where

794
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 1: you're like, what the fuck were people? Thank you? It's

795
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:12,919
Speaker 1: a sweet movie.

796
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 3: I liked green Book.

797
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:19,240
Speaker 1: It was fine, totally fine, Simon. The twenty seventeen Academy

798
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 1: Awards presentation featured one of the biggest live gaps in

799
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 1: the history of modern television. Many will remember that for

800
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: the final category of the night, the incorrect winner was

801
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,800
Speaker 1: announced for Best Picture. This sent the entire broadcast into

802
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 1: complete chasts, tarnished the reputation of the Academy, and generally

803
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 1: embarrassed people on the biggest stage, and there's something else

804
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 1: that can send each of us into complete chaos, something

805
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 1: else that can tarnish our reputations. Signmon, something else they

806
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 1: can embarrass you on your biggest stage inferior, low quality underwear.

807
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 1: That's why our beloved sponsor John is here providing the

808
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 1: red carpet treatment to every man and woman who wears

809
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 1: their best in class underwear and their flexible, breathable collection

810
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: of casual essentials. When I'm handed the envelope in the

811
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 1: best underwear category, there's only one nominee on my card.

812
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 1: It's Tommy John. Simon. Why will you be wearing more

813
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 1: of Tommy John in twenty twenty.

814
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 3: Five because comfort is gang.

815
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,240
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816
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,080
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817
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,440
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818
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Laskar chuckled at that,

819
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 1: which was fun.

820
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 3: Well, I actually thought you were going towards a piece

821
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 3: of trivia, and then the way you tied it into

822
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 3: the underwear at.

823
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: It, I can take no credit. It's all that, and

824
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: it's the first time I read these without having read

825
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 1: them before, and so I am I'm reading it. I'm

826
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: learning the story as I go. It's like reading.

827
00:41:58,520 --> 00:41:59,720
Speaker 3: That's why they feel so natural.

828
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, as I go, And so it's so fun. I

829
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: can't wait to see how it ends. All right, best

830
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 1: actor Timothy Shallamy.

831
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 3: He just won SAG and then let's say, I looked

832
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 3: at my stats. Okay, so let me give you.

833
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 1: While you're looking at the stats, let me just give

834
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 1: the answer. Because while he won the SAG Adrianan Brody

835
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: at the Brutalist minus two twenty five Timothy Shallomey plus

836
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: one forty Ray Finds plus twelve hundred, and everything sort

837
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 1: of skyrockets from there. Appropriately. So, look, Shalome wants to

838
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 1: do what Brody did, which is win it as the

839
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 1: youngest person ever. As you mentioned, Brody did it. What

840
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 1: was it twenty five years ago or whatever?

841
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, two thousand and two.

842
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, give it to us, tell us what's well?

843
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 3: Look, I mean again, what's interesting is that you know,

844
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 3: Shalmy hadn't won anything until Sunday Night, and then he

845
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 3: won the SAG Award. Now SAG since twenty ten has

846
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 3: gone twelve or fourteen predicting Best Actor. The notable exceptions

847
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: were Denzel Washington won for Fences in twenty sixteen, as

848
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 3: opposed to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea, and

849
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 3: then in twenty twenty, Chadick Boseman won for Ma Rainey's

850
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 3: Black Bottom instead of Anthony Hopkins for The Father. Now,

851
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 3: I had Anthony Hopkins winning that night at the Oscars

852
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 3: because if you watch Ma Raine's Black Bottom, he really

853
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 3: was a supporting person of that movie, and I actually thought,

854
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 3: I don't think people are going to vote for him,

855
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 3: just because unfortunately he tragically had passed away. So to me,

856
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 3: I feel like looking I mean, both of those from

857
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 3: SAG were just sort of like none of those made

858
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 3: sense because even Denzel and Fences wasn't really contending as

859
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 3: like maybe the runner up from Casey anyways, and a

860
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 3: lot of the other races that were being predicted that

861
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 3: year back in twenty sixteen, so it's pretty predictive. I mean, look,

862
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 3: it's it's so tricky because there's definitely this feeling of

863
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 3: like Challo May is our new Leo, and like, let's

864
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 3: make him work for it. Leo didn't win until he

865
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 3: was nominated, I think in his fifth time in twenty

866
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 3: fifteen for The Revenant. But shall may. I mean it's cool.

867
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 3: I mean he's a special, special actor. I think he's

868
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:03,399
Speaker 3: unbelievable in the movie this. This is such a toss up.

869
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I would still lean Adrian just

870
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 3: because he won so many of the early awards, and

871
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 3: I think people think he's just so amazing in that movie.

872
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 3: And I do think there's a little bit of a

873
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 3: sense of like Shalome will be back so many more times.

874
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 3: There was this weird narrative of like, you know, Adrian

875
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 3: Brody already won for this exact same role in The Pianist,

876
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 3: which that's a very reductive thing to say, just because

877
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 3: they're both, you know, Jewish Holocaust survivors. He's amazing in

878
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 3: The Brutalist. So I would still lean Brody. But it's

879
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 3: another toss up.

880
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 1: Snon loves to Mithew Shaname he's amazing. I did.

881
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 2: I think it's he's in a rare spot where, like

882
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 2: he talked about Leo, Leo probably would have won if

883
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 2: things were a little different in the nineties, where it

884
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 2: was really you got to earn it before you can

885
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: get it. Where I feel like there's been a shift

886
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 2: nowadays where you know, someone like him, I feel like

887
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 2: he has put in the work and movies do they

888
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 2: need a movie like we need young movie stars. We're

889
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: in this weird thing where, like I love Michael B. Jordan,

890
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:05,719
Speaker 2: I thought he was gonna be the next one to

891
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 2: step up for people around my age. He kind of hasn't.

892
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 2: And there's been this void still of someone to fill

893
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 2: this void of the next Leo tom Cruise type, like

894
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 2: someone that you know like there was there's there's strutches

895
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 2: of different people, like even Brad Pitt. I put him

896
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 2: on the same pedestal where Matt Damon too. They make

897
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 2: a movie, I don't care what the movie is. I

898
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 2: go and see it, and they think they know they

899
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 2: need to start getting back to that with this younger

900
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 2: generation because we have had some dead like duds, Like

901
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,439
Speaker 2: you know, I like Zach Effron, He's kind of a dud.

902
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 2: He didn't really turn out to be the guy like

903
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,959
Speaker 2: I love Iron Claw, but I had to beg people

904
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 2: to go see that movie. They weren't going to see

905
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 2: it simply because Zach Effron's in it. Where you know,

906
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 2: if that was the nineties or eighties and it's Tom

907
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 2: Cruise in the Iron Claw. Everyone's seeing it, men and women.

908
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Timmy's in this cool spot of

909
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 2: his range of doom to then do a movie like

910
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 2: this right where he can be the action star guy.

911
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 2: And you know, I just think he could pull the

912
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 2: upsete off here, Like I love that he's a dog

913
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 2: in this number. And I do think it's like after

914
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 2: how he gave that speech at SAG where it's like

915
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 2: he's not backing away from it, He's lean into it.

916
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 2: Be like I want to be great. I want to

917
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 2: be the big guy. I do like that. I wonder

918
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 2: your percession of it is that gonna hurt him or

919
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 2: benefit him?

920
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: Well, the thing is the voting was the voting was

921
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,800
Speaker 3: done on like February twenty ohr eighteenth, though the voting

922
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 3: closed like ten days ago, so it doesn't really matter.

923
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 3: I mean, look, I think honestly, for people that are

924
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:34,399
Speaker 3: betting on this, it's like take Schalamey for Best Actor,

925
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 3: take to be More for Best actress, Like just head

926
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 3: your bets, you know what I mean? Like, look, I

927
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 3: thought Shallome was unreal in that movie. I would be

928
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 3: so happy if he wins. I don't know if this

929
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 3: one is just like a complete complete uh toss up.

930
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 3: But you're right, he definitely has been annoyed as like

931
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 3: he's going to be the next guy. But the SAG

932
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 3: Awards are always pretty late. Somebody said that they were

933
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 3: moved because of the LA fires, but yeah, I mean

934
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 3: they're you know, the voting has been done so and look,

935
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,720
Speaker 3: I think shall May he was already doing so much press.

936
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: I mean, he played himself as Bob Dylan on SNL,

937
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 3: like you know, he was leaving it all out on

938
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 3: the on the floor these days exactly.

939
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 1: I want to take Shallo May here.

940
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 3: I love.

941
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: I thought the movie was amazing, just rush it. But again,

942
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 1: I'm close to Boomer so it's almost almost my music.

943
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 1: But I've never been a Bob Dylan guy. And I

944
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 1: watched that movie and then couldn't stop listening. You know,

945
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:41,799
Speaker 1: I was your friend's parents like just streaming Dylan NonStop

946
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: because he was so so good in this movie. I

947
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 1: also found him to be and you know, I'm a sucker,

948
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 1: so incredibly charming on his press tour right yea in

949
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 1: college game day, he was amazing. And then the old

950
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 1: stuff surfaced about what a huge Knicks fan he was,

951
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,360
Speaker 1: and his sports knowledge, I mean that connected with me.

952
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: And then so then it was just this guy who

953
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:06,959
Speaker 1: I want to hang out with. Andy happens to be

954
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: a great actor and he's so freaking ambitious, which I loved.

955
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: Simon to your point, I love that speech, and I

956
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 1: like the way Adam Sandler says Timothy Shallowy.

957
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:19,879
Speaker 3: Of course, no, he's he's amazing. It would be very

958
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 3: cool if he won. And I mean Adrian Birdie already

959
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 3: has an Oscar. But yeah, I think because Adrian Birdie

960
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 3: won in two thousand and two. You know, people I

961
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 3: saw amos at an Academy member yesterday, it's like, do

962
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 3: you want to put Adrian Brody in the two timer? Club?

963
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,760
Speaker 3: Is winning two best after Oscars? But it's so far apart,

964
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 3: I don't think people really think about it. And by

965
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 3: the way, in this newer era, we've had a lot

966
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,759
Speaker 3: of people win two Oscars relatively fast. I mean, Emma

967
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:46,360
Speaker 3: Stone won two in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty three,

968
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,760
Speaker 3: Christoph Waltz won two two thousand and nine twenty twelve,

969
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 3: Mershaw Alie won two twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen. I mean,

970
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,880
Speaker 3: like it's happening kind of faster. I don't think people

971
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 3: care about that stuff as much anymore. It's a total

972
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 3: toss up. I mean, I literally might change my mind

973
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 3: at like four o'clock on Sunday when I like finished

974
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 3: doing my ballot at my house.

975
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: You know, oscars are practically a participation trophy now, the

976
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 1: way they're just giving away. They don't even have standards anymore.

977
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:16,240
Speaker 1: Best Adapted Screenplay Conclave runaway here has.

978
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: To be relatively weak category. The other thing too, going

979
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,800
Speaker 3: back to Best after for one second, just again thinking

980
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 3: about what happens the next day. One thing that's happened

981
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 3: recently with the Academy Awards is every year there have

982
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 3: been some major major movies with like ten or eleven

983
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 3: nominations to get nothing. Notably Killers of Flower Moon, Irishmen

984
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 3: Banshees of an Asheron Tar like Tarn Banshees each had

985
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 3: nine nominations, got zero, so completely unknown as eight nominations, like,

986
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,479
Speaker 3: don't be surprised if it wins zero oscars, Like that's

987
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 3: just how it shakes out sometimes now. But back to adapted, Yeah,

988
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 3: Conclave has been the runaway you know favorite for this

989
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 3: you know, non stock you know the entire narrative, the

990
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:01,799
Speaker 3: entire year, and I don't see why wouldn't win. You

991
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:04,359
Speaker 3: can't go off the WGA's. It's very confusing because thinking

992
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 3: about the WGA's, they only nominate WGA scripts, and a

993
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 3: lot of these movies you get nominated for oscars are

994
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 3: written by foreign, non American writers who are not in

995
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:17,400
Speaker 3: the WGA. So I don't think Conclave was even eligible

996
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 3: at the w's. The Brutalist wasn't eligible, blah blah blah blah.

997
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:22,760
Speaker 3: So the Conclave is gonna win. I don't see anything

998
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 3: upsetting it. I can't ever. I mean, I know, like

999
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 3: Complete Unknown was nominated. I'm forgetting Oh Nickel Boys, that's

1000
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 3: not going to win. Yeah, I'm forgetting the other two

1001
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 3: nomination Amelia Perez not gonna win and Sing Sing, Yeah,

1002
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 3: not gonna win. The Sing Sing nomination. I loved Sing Sing.

1003
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 3: I was bummed it was nominated for Best Picture. That

1004
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 3: was definitely a way of nominating the guys behind that

1005
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:44,160
Speaker 3: movie to like show them some love. But it's not

1006
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 3: gonna win.

1007
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:50,359
Speaker 1: This does feel like the award that is Conclave's consolation, right,

1008
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: Like it's sort of second place in a lot of

1009
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 1: different categories and this is the one. Everyone can be like, oh.

1010
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, but but how about this. What if Conclave wins

1011
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: Best Editing, Best at After Screenplay, and Best Picture with

1012
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 3: no director nomination. You know, that would be tantamount too

1013
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 3: a little movie called Argo.

1014
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, that feels Argo at.

1015
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 3: Argo, you know. So it's possible. It's completely, completely possible,

1016
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 3: and it's that's why it's fun, and that's you know,

1017
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:23,279
Speaker 3: the new proferential balloting they do is really interesting, and

1018
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 3: Conclave could win. You know, the BAFTAs are are to

1019
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 3: be taken seriously because the Academy has gotten very international,

1020
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 3: has a much more international voting body. Although I think

1021
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 3: the producers of Conclave were British and so you could

1022
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 3: argue because it won Best British Film and it won

1023
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 3: Best Film at BAFTA, so you know, maybe a one

1024
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 3: because it was kind of the hometown favorite a little bit.

1025
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 3: You know, I don't know, I really liked it. If

1026
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 3: it wins, I'll be okay with that. I think there's

1027
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:51,759
Speaker 3: parts of Conclave that are incredible.

1028
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, she's an inter sharing by the way, you.

1029
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 3: Know, you're you're on the record you loved inter Sharing.

1030
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 1: I thought that was as good a examination of the

1031
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 1: price of success, the price of a life like that was.

1032
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 3: Well, it was about you and Simon. It was I mean,

1033
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 3: you saw you and Simon's relationship reflected between Branglemon has

1034
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 3: told me.

1035
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 1: So many times, if I keep talking to him, he

1036
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 1: is just going to start cutting off the body.

1037
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:17,359
Speaker 3: Exactly.

1038
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 1: You can't babom wasting any more time when there is

1039
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: real stuff to be done. Correct, best supporting actress.

1040
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 3: Both of these are locked. I mean not to you know,

1041
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:29,919
Speaker 3: they're locked.

1042
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 1: She was the pick when you and I spoke like,

1043
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 1: she was the odds on.

1044
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 3: She and the Amelia press controversy did not affect her

1045
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 3: on any level for the obvious reasons of she's great

1046
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 3: in the movie, She's beloved in the business. It's kind

1047
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 3: of a weak category this year, and people are not

1048
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 3: that you know, uh mean, they're not going to like

1049
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:49,879
Speaker 3: hold that against her. She's she's getting up there, and

1050
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:54,280
Speaker 3: she has played her press and speeches post the controversy perfectly.

1051
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 3: She's she's winning.

1052
00:52:56,200 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 1: She was so good in that movie. Yeah, she danced

1053
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:06,719
Speaker 1: that scene when they're at that dinner. You know, there's

1054
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 1: thousands of people there and she is dancing in the

1055
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 1: middle of the tables, Like her movement is great, her

1056
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: voice is amazing, she speaks Spanish so much in the movie,

1057
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 1: Like she was tremendous. This is a no brainer. Lock

1058
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 1: it in. She's minus three thousand, no discussion. Ye's so,

1059
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:31,760
Speaker 1: then the question is, as you just said, best Supporting Actor,

1060
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:36,280
Speaker 1: Kieran Culkin in a real pain. He's minus five thousand.

1061
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 1: He's been winning everything.

1062
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 3: He's a log as well. Look, I think in both

1063
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 3: categories you could do fun upsets if you want to

1064
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: try to make some money. Going back to supporting actress,

1065
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,399
Speaker 3: I did talk to her Academy member last week who

1066
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 3: not only told me they were voting for Isabelle Rossellini,

1067
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 3: but also we're like, oh, yeah, she's winning. It's kind

1068
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 3: of the same thing as to me. More it's like

1069
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 3: a career oscar. I do not think she's going to win,

1070
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 3: but maybe if you wanted to find like a fun upset.

1071
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 3: And I think in supporting actor there's two upsets to

1072
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,320
Speaker 3: be at, because because Kieran obviously seems to be winning,

1073
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 3: one would be Yuri Borisov from Anora if you want

1074
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 3: to go the full Honora like sweep. But the other

1075
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 3: one the performance that everybody talks about in Hollywood is

1076
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 3: Jeremy Strong. Yeah, and when you think about the fact

1077
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 3: that Sebastian Stan was also nominated, shows you some real

1078
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:26,359
Speaker 3: love for that movie. And Jeremy Strong is just having

1079
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 3: one of those moments where people are like, no one

1080
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:31,320
Speaker 3: quite knows what to make of him. He seems really weird,

1081
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 3: but he's a hell of an actor. And don't be surprised,

1082
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 3: I mean be hysterical because him and Kieran obviously were

1083
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 3: on a show together for four years, and you know

1084
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 3: how whatever relationship they have, I don't know. They both

1085
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 3: seem odd frankly, but but Kieran probably is gonna win.

1086
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 3: In the last ten to fifteen years, we're better or worse.

1087
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 3: The supporting categories calcify really early, and I can barely

1088
00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 3: remember upsets. You know, I'd have to think about, but

1089
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 3: there's very, very, very few upsets that come to mind.

1090
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 1: Isabella Rosselini in Conclave plus two thousand. I feel like

1091
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 1: she had five lines in the movie. I agree that

1092
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 1: wasn't a supporting actor in any sense. She was like,

1093
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 1: you know, a cameo.

1094
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I completely completely agree with you, and I was

1095
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 3: I actually didn't even have her on my nomination ballot,

1096
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:29,879
Speaker 3: you know, but like Felicity, you know, Jones never really

1097
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 3: took flight, Ariana Grande never took flight. And who the

1098
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:35,200
Speaker 3: fifth one would have? Who's the fifth one of that category?

1099
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 1: Blank?

1100
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 3: And was Monica Barbaro, who I love, but again not

1101
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 3: I mean her nomination is the win.

1102
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 1: Yes, I feel like I feel like she was great,

1103
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 1: but you know, it's not like maybe a lot of

1104
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 1: people could have done that part and she just hadn't

1105
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,680
Speaker 1: be really good at that part. It's always al Donna.

1106
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 1: I don't know anyone else who could have on this

1107
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 1: part like she was. She put her stamp on it.

1108
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 1: She was brilliant. It was her.

1109
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 3: She was. The interesting thing about Monica Barbarro. I was

1110
00:56:08,520 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 3: talking to Fred Berger, the nominated producer of A Complete Unknown,

1111
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:16,479
Speaker 3: who's a really good friend of mine, and I was saying,

1112
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 3: next time at a wedding at the end of the

1113
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:21,760
Speaker 3: Christmas break and right is the movie is kind of surging,

1114
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 3: and I was just peppering him with a gazillion questions

1115
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 3: and a lot of this has been in the press now.

1116
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 3: I mean Monica, I don't think she actually could sing

1117
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 3: when they cast her they I mean, she could carry

1118
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:35,280
Speaker 3: a tune. They must have been able to suggest that somehow,

1119
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 3: but they had to teach her to be able to

1120
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 3: sing like that, and they ended up, you know, had

1121
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 3: they all these shutdowns with COVID and so forth. And

1122
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,120
Speaker 3: I mean, she's amazing in the movie. I thought she

1123
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 3: was just incredible.

1124
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 1: Also great in Top Gun Maverick, she's amazing.

1125
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:51,719
Speaker 3: I was flying bat them buying flying back from New

1126
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 3: York last weekend. I rewatched the final scene of Top

1127
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 3: Gun Maverick about four times in a row. Failed tears

1128
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:02,480
Speaker 3: every time when he says, thank you for saving my life,

1129
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,319
Speaker 3: and then Miles Teller says, is what my father would

1130
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:08,600
Speaker 3: have done. And it's so brilliant because he saved his

1131
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 3: life technically by rescuing him, but he saved his life

1132
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 3: by giving him purpose. It's an incredible movie.

1133
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:18,720
Speaker 1: It's a dude. I've seen it so many times. I've

1134
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 1: made my kid watch it probably four times, and I've

1135
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 1: made him watch the original Top Gun, which I still love.

1136
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:32,439
Speaker 1: It's much slower than it's interesting. You watch movies now,

1137
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 1: Like my kid was sick last week and so we

1138
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 1: ended up watching a bunch of movies together. We did

1139
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:42,880
Speaker 1: like we did Meet the Parents and then we did

1140
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:46,960
Speaker 1: we did Wedding Crashers, and like, even the difference between

1141
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: those two movies as comedies with just a few years

1142
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:54,720
Speaker 1: between them, the pacing is different, right, And so one

1143
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: of the nights I just happened to watch All the

1144
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:00,800
Speaker 1: Right Moves with Tom Cruise from nineteen eighty three, Tom

1145
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 1: Cruising Lea Thompson, Right. My wife was out of town

1146
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 1: this weekend, so like, and I don't have any friends,

1147
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,439
Speaker 1: so I was just watching a lot of movies, and

1148
00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 1: All the Right Moves was on you know, Amazon Prime

1149
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:16,040
Speaker 1: in the first row. So I watched it. It's so

1150
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 1: and I was gonna call my kid up from the

1151
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 1: basement and play in two k to come watch it

1152
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 1: with me. And it's so slow. I'm like, he'll walk

1153
00:58:23,520 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 1: out in two seconds. It's a great I loved it,

1154
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:27,320
Speaker 1: but it is so slow.

1155
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 3: Well, there's all these movies from that era where like

1156
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 3: the first acts are forty minutes long, and like, yeah,

1157
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:35,520
Speaker 3: I mean people today, granted we're making really long movies

1158
00:58:35,600 --> 00:58:38,000
Speaker 3: right now, but people just would not They just wouldn't

1159
00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:39,800
Speaker 3: get how much time. But then you know, there are

1160
00:58:39,920 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 3: actual there's funny examples. I have to clock it but

1161
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 3: if you go back and watch Tutsie, I think it's

1162
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 3: like minute nine when he's the woman he goes to

1163
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 3: lunch with Sidney Pollock, and Sydney Pollock is like, you're busted.

1164
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 3: Nobody likes working with you. You got to like shake it

1165
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 3: up hard. Cut to him walking down the street of

1166
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:01,439
Speaker 3: New York dressed as Dorothy Michael and you just buy

1167
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 3: it because you know he's an actor. You know he

1168
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 3: has access to makeup, bright hair and that and that's

1169
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 3: it and they and it's one of the fastest buy

1170
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 3: ins for a movie ever, you know. But uh yeah,

1171
00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 3: a lot of those movies they take their time. So anyways,

1172
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 3: I mean, look, as you guys know, it's a it's

1173
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 3: a great year. I mean, I thought it was a

1174
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 3: great year for movies there. It's going to be really

1175
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 3: spread around on Sunday and there's still like a lot

1176
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 3: of surprises to come. It's exciting.

1177
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 1: It is exciting. Michael Laskar, you are a super powerful

1178
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 1: manager at Mosaic, and so we appreciate you coming on

1179
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:36,960
Speaker 1: the favorite podcast to waste your time with us. Simon

1180
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 1: is going to chop off all those fingers after probably

1181
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 1: the next few episodes, of talking to me. So this

1182
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:45,880
Speaker 1: was a good rest bite for him.

1183
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 3: You guys didn't You didn't even give any trivia this.

1184
00:59:47,680 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 1: Time, Matt Mitchell, do we have any trivia? I mean, Michael,

1185
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 1: you're we know you're a savant. Our listeners know your savant.

1186
00:59:56,160 --> 01:00:00,960
Speaker 2: The Hollywood reporter knows you're a powerful and so powerful.

1187
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 1: I didn't make you. Uh, we didn't need to wheel

1188
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:04,600
Speaker 1: out that parlor trick.

1189
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, I'll ask you one thing.

1190
01:00:06,880 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 1: I'll ask you one thing.

1191
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:08,560
Speaker 3: Oh, I hope I get it right.

1192
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 1: And this is this is more of an opinion to

1193
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 1: see if you can match sort of my perspective on

1194
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:21,000
Speaker 1: pop culture. Yes, earlier in the show we mentioned Green

1195
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 1: Book as a movie. I think it's should not have

1196
01:00:25,120 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 1: won three Oscars, should not have won. I think it

1197
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 1: won Best Picture that year, should not have won. Can

1198
01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 1: you name What's in My Head as the other movie

1199
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 1: that looking back is on the wrong side of history

1200
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:42,280
Speaker 1: and given the competition and how those movies have played

1201
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: out historically over the past, say twenty five years, should

1202
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 1: not have won Best Picture but did win because of

1203
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:52,960
Speaker 1: the marketing, might have a certain studio.

1204
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 3: Well, you have to be referring to Shakespeare in Love.

1205
01:00:56,480 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 3: Michael Asker, you have won again. I mean, it's funny.

1206
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:04,440
Speaker 3: People talk about it all the time. Harvey, who's in

1207
01:01:04,520 --> 01:01:07,920
Speaker 3: prison for life where he should be, he changed it forever.

1208
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:11,240
Speaker 3: I was talking to an exec who worked at Miramax

1209
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 3: in the mid nineties, and she was telling me, she

1210
01:01:14,200 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 3: was like an assistant. This was the year of Ill Postina,

1211
01:01:16,800 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 3: which is a very beautiful Italian film that Miramax got

1212
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 3: a Best Picture and Director and actor nomination, that the

1213
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:26,480
Speaker 3: actor had died, Masimo Treesi, and he was nominated possionously

1214
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:31,160
Speaker 3: for Best Actor. And she was like, it was like basically,

1215
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:35,000
Speaker 3: Harvey ran the campaigns like political campaigns, and they would

1216
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:37,040
Speaker 3: get the numbers of all the Academy members, and all

1217
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,200
Speaker 3: these assistants would sit in a room and they would

1218
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,400
Speaker 3: dial up. There was no cell phones. They would dial

1219
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:43,400
Speaker 3: people up at home. They'd say, have you watched Ill Postino?

1220
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:44,919
Speaker 3: Can I tell you all about it? Blah blah blah

1221
01:01:44,920 --> 01:01:48,680
Speaker 3: blah blah. And he just completely changed the face of campaigning.

1222
01:01:49,880 --> 01:01:53,000
Speaker 3: I don't think I don't really think that people like

1223
01:01:53,040 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 3: I don't think there's like, you know, people are actually

1224
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:58,400
Speaker 3: trying to hurt people, like when that AI thing came

1225
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 3: out about, like how they altered Adrian Rody's voice for

1226
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 3: some of the foreign language and brutalists. I don't think

1227
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:06,560
Speaker 3: that's like a plant. I don't think you know, people

1228
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 3: have been wondering, like was it a rival movie that

1229
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:12,280
Speaker 3: dug up that the tweets from the Starving lay Prez No,

1230
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 3: I don't believe any of that. But everything just obviously

1231
01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 3: is more amplified than it's ever been now. And yeah,

1232
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 3: I mean people look back at Shakespeare Love, but the

1233
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:25,680
Speaker 3: thing is, and I love Sam Briar Ryan, but when

1234
01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:29,080
Speaker 3: it lost, even in that moment, I reconciled that, like, well,

1235
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 3: let's break the movie down, like it's the greatest first

1236
01:02:33,000 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 3: act in the history of movies basically, and then it

1237
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:40,520
Speaker 3: is really strong. But like, I don't remember actually feeling that, Like,

1238
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I like the third act a lot, you know,

1239
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 3: when they have to like defend you know, the bridge

1240
01:02:44,480 --> 01:02:47,080
Speaker 3: and everything, But I don't remember actually thinking in the

1241
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 3: end the movie was like perfect Shakespeare in Love and

1242
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 3: Chad and I year old enough as am I I

1243
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:55,000
Speaker 3: was in college. That movie really knocked people. That took

1244
01:02:55,000 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 3: people by storm. It was so clever and the acting

1245
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 3: was incredible in the writing was incredible and the way

1246
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 3: it kind of created this amalgamation of where all his

1247
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 3: stories came from. So like, I don't personally think I

1248
01:03:07,320 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 3: thought you were gonna say Crash because people talk about

1249
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:10,479
Speaker 3: Crash beating broke By.

1250
01:03:10,640 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 1: That's another one.

1251
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 3: I don't think Shakespeare Love is that bad. There are

1252
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 3: worse Oscar winners than Shakespeare in Love. I mean, in

1253
01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:18,880
Speaker 3: that movie, it ended up winning the most Oscars of

1254
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:23,120
Speaker 3: the night because it won Actress, Supporting Actress, Best Picture,

1255
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 3: Best Original Screenplay, and it won some like below the

1256
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:28,760
Speaker 3: line stuff. So I think Sampire won four and they

1257
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,160
Speaker 3: won five or something like that. So I don't think

1258
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:33,840
Speaker 3: it was so controversial. What's controversial is it was the

1259
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 3: beginning of Harvey being a terrorist and kind of willing

1260
01:03:37,760 --> 01:03:40,600
Speaker 3: his might on people. And you know, you want to

1261
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 3: talk about controversial. The artist. Another Harvey Weinstein special wins

1262
01:03:45,000 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 3: Best Picture in twenty eleven, right over movies like The

1263
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:51,760
Speaker 3: Descendants and other good movies that year, and like, have

1264
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 3: you has anybody ever talked about the artist ever again?

1265
01:03:54,920 --> 01:03:59,240
Speaker 3: Picture Director, Actor, Like that was a Harvey Weinstein special.

1266
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 1: I had just had my first grandkid when Shakespeare in

1267
01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:09,200
Speaker 1: love now you know you have a baby face because

1268
01:04:09,240 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 1: I'm old. I'm old, Simon. That was the joke. Laster,

1269
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:14,880
Speaker 1: You're the best brother. Thanks for coming on.

1270
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: So wonderful seeing you guys. Let's compare notes on Sunday

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01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 3: and Monday, and you know, happy heavy betting to your audience.

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01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 1: We will as a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented

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01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 1: by Bet three six five and now new Bet three

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01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 1: six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars and

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01:04:28,640 --> 01:04:31,120
Speaker 1: bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using

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01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:33,560
Speaker 1: promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for

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01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 1: five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in

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01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:39,200
Speaker 1: bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,

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01:04:39,200 --> 01:04:41,840
Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more whatever the moment. It's never

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01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 1: ordinated at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one

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01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:48,120
Speaker 1: or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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01:04:48,160 --> 01:04:51,360
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:54,240
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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01:04:54,560 --> 01:04:56,800
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off an iowaere terms. Conditioned

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01:04:56,880 --> 01:05:00,240
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with their next

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01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:02,440
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites in the Action Network You two

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01:05:02,480 --> 01:05:06,400
Speaker 1: page Tuesday, one thirty pm Eastern Download from Spotify, Apple Pods,

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01:05:06,400 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, leave us

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01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:10,760
Speaker 1: five stars, state whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

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01:05:11,240 --> 01:05:24,840
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds you please

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01:05:24,920 --> 01:05:28,320
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

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01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:31,440
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

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01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred gambler