Speaker 1: Welcome.
Speaker 2: It is Verdict with Senator Ted Kruz ben Ferguson with you,
Speaker 2: and I can't believe it. We are six weeks out
Speaker 2: until election day, so it's a good time to take
Speaker 2: a pause look at this election. What are going to
Speaker 2: be the big issues and where we are right now, Senator,
Speaker 2: I can't believe it.
Speaker 1: Six weeks is not that long.
Speaker 3: As of tomorrow, six weeks from tomorrow will be election
Speaker 3: day and it'll all be over, God willing, unless it
Speaker 3: ends up and the Democrats have of their way, it
Speaker 3: becomes election month. But we will finally be there. November
Speaker 3: fifth is six weeks and one day away. And what
Speaker 3: we're going to do on this podcast is layout number one,
Speaker 3: the presidential what is it going to come down to?
Speaker 3: And number two, we're going to make a run across
Speaker 3: the Senate map and the potential pickup states for Republicans
Speaker 3: and give you a state of the race right now
Speaker 3: six weeks out. We're going to do all of that,
Speaker 3: give you an overview of this final six week stretch
Speaker 3: what to expect heading into election day.
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Speaker 2: the core number one issue center that you think is
Speaker 2: going to be it on election Day. I still think
Speaker 2: it's overwhelming the economy. I think Kama Harris that is
Speaker 2: still her going to be her weakness and going for
Speaker 2: price controls I think is still going to be a
Speaker 2: disaster for her to try to sell that to the
Speaker 2: American people.
Speaker 3: So I think there are three issues that are front
Speaker 3: and center. Number one the economy, and really inflation is
Speaker 3: the most important piece of the economy. Number two is
Speaker 3: illegal immigration and the chaos at our southern border.
Speaker 4: And number three is crime.
Speaker 3: And if you look state by state, those three issues
Speaker 3: are consistently polling at the top. The economy and illegal
Speaker 3: immigration go back and forth. For one and two state
Speaker 3: by state, they both tend in state polls to have
Speaker 3: about thirty percent of the voters say that the number
Speaker 3: one issue, and then everything else drops to single digits
Speaker 3: after those two. So it's really in crime and illegal
Speaker 3: immigration are interwoven, so those are similar issues. And listen,
Speaker 3: as I look at this race, everyone has been whip
Speaker 3: sawed by the polls going up and down, and Trump
Speaker 3: is Upcommala is up, Trump's Upcamala is up.
Speaker 4: It's dizzy.
Speaker 3: It's like watching a tennis match, which I'm sure you like, Ben,
Speaker 3: but it does get a little crazy going back and forth.
Speaker 3: At the end of the day. Sitting here six weeks out,
Speaker 3: I am still optimistic. I think it's going to be
Speaker 3: a good election night. I think Republicans are going to
Speaker 3: win the White House. I think we're gonna win the Senate,
Speaker 3: and I think we're going to win the House and
Speaker 3: grow our majority of the House. And the reason is
Speaker 3: that on those three issues, the top issues, all three
Speaker 3: of them favor Republicans at the end of the day.
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris's entire campaign strategy is built on the approach
Speaker 3: of hide, dodge, evade, Pretend you're not in office, Pretend
Speaker 3: you have no responsibility for the record right now. That
Speaker 3: can last a while, and with the media helping her,
Speaker 3: it has lasted a considerable while. But at the end
Speaker 3: of the day, I think it's just untenable and so
Speaker 3: my hope and this has been my message. I saw Trump,
Speaker 3: I was with him Thursday night. We had a big
Speaker 3: event in DC where he was standing up against anti Semitism.
Speaker 3: Was a really good, really good, really strong event. And
Speaker 3: you know, my message to him then and every time
Speaker 3: I see him is, Folks, on the issues, the fundamental
Speaker 3: contrast your record versus her record, Trump's record as president
Speaker 3: in virtually every respect. On the fundamental question, are you
Speaker 3: better off now than you were four years ago? The
Speaker 3: answer for virtually everyone is no. And my hope is
Speaker 3: on the presidential that that gets pounded in a million
Speaker 3: times between now and election day.
Speaker 2: There also seems to be another problem that Kama Harris
Speaker 2: is really facing, and it seems to be enthusiasm. She
Speaker 2: doesn't have the numbers that you usually traditionally need among
Speaker 2: minority voters, either Hispanics or African Americans. And also there's
Speaker 2: real concerns now of younger voters thirty five and understaying
Speaker 2: home is that a recipe for disaster and how much
Speaker 2: should we read into that six weeks out.
Speaker 3: Well, A, there's a lack of enthusiasm. B we've seen
Speaker 3: younger voters breaking more towards Trump because look, younger voters,
Speaker 3: it was easy. Voting for hope and change is an
Speaker 3: easy thing for young people to do. But getting mugged
Speaker 3: by reality has a way of changing your perspective. It's
Speaker 3: one thing when you're coming out of four years of
Speaker 3: Trump and the economy is good, you're safe, and you
Speaker 3: feel like, Okay, I'm going to go with a feel
Speaker 3: good vote. Now, look, young people are discovering now inflation.
Speaker 3: They're trying to pay their bills. They go to the
Speaker 3: grocery store and holy cow, their paycheck doesn't even cover
Speaker 3: their expenses. You know, they look at their bills, they
Speaker 3: try to fill up a tank of gas and wow,
Speaker 3: that hurts. And then you look at say a young
Speaker 3: couple that's going to buy their first home. And it
Speaker 3: was only four years ago that we had two and
Speaker 3: a half percent interest rates. Now you've got seven percent
Speaker 3: interest rates, and young people I think are really feeling that.
Speaker 4: And so that.
Speaker 3: You've got both decreased enthusiasm but you also have the
Speaker 3: people who are feeling the and the pain of this
Speaker 3: bad record. Are many of the people who four years
Speaker 3: ago pulled the lever for Joe Biden. Then I think
Speaker 3: they're going to be less eager to do so this time.
Speaker 2: You know, there's something that you just mentioned there, and
Speaker 2: it's about people just feeling the pain every time they
Speaker 2: get their paycheck and it's not enough to cover their bills.
Speaker 2: There was a big policy that was rolled out and
Speaker 2: then I don't know if you've noticed this, but I've
Speaker 2: noticed it. Like now it's like nonexistent. It was this
Speaker 2: big twenty five thousand dollars for first time home buyers
Speaker 2: trying to bribe people to vote for Kama Harrison.
Speaker 1: I'll give you twenty five thousand dollars if you haven't
Speaker 1: bought a house, And now I haven't heard anything about that.
Speaker 2: Is it because they know that they can't do it
Speaker 2: usually they don't mind lying, like they lied multiple times
Speaker 2: on student loans. Or is it because they're not talking
Speaker 2: about it because they've gotten caught so many times promising
Speaker 2: things like student loan forgiveness that they haven't been able
Speaker 2: to do.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think people just thought it was gimmicky. I
Speaker 3: think people were skeptical of it. I can tell you
Speaker 3: anyone who attended even a basic ECON class would know
Speaker 3: the only effect of that is going to be to
Speaker 3: raise the cost of houses by twenty five thousand dollars.
Speaker 3: I mean, that's what it's going to do.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 3: It also struck me it was really really sharp compared
Speaker 3: to the bill that passed California that actually Gavin knew
Speaker 3: some veto that, if I remember right, was one hundred
Speaker 3: and fifty thousand dollars for a home if you're an
Speaker 3: illegal alien. And so it was striking that Kamala was
Speaker 3: offering so much less to American citizens than California Democrats
Speaker 3: were willing to give the illegals. I just think people
Speaker 3: heard that and it just just sounded like BS to them.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about also the price controls on food.
Speaker 2: I mean, it was it's clearly a communist idea. It
Speaker 2: was one that was just obliterated when she said it
Speaker 2: by so many on TV. One of those and it
Speaker 2: was an interesting point because I think it stuck with
Speaker 2: me was Kevin o' He's one of the guys on
Speaker 2: Shark Tank. A lot of Americans that maybe aren't watching,
Speaker 2: you know, like CNBC, but they know Shark Tank and
Speaker 2: when he said what he said, it went viral. And
Speaker 2: I think it went viral because people know him from
Speaker 2: Shark Tank and they actually kind of like him. And
Speaker 2: this is what he said back in August, and it's
Speaker 2: still today showing up on my timeline with I think
Speaker 2: there's forty or fifty million views.
Speaker 6: Kevin since you brought that up. She's calling it price gouging,
Speaker 6: you know, price controls, price fixing, whatever it is. I'm
Speaker 6: wondering why we aren't hearing more business leaders, more grocery
Speaker 6: store operators coming out and saying this plan is crazy,
Speaker 6: it doesn't work. Why are we hearing more of them
Speaker 6: push back on this.
Speaker 7: Oh, they're coming, don't worry, don't worry. There's a lot
Speaker 7: of narrative going on in the background waiting for Labor
Speaker 7: Day to.
Speaker 4: Pass this policy.
Speaker 7: And the best way to describe it is un American.
Speaker 4: And let me explain why.
Speaker 7: In America, we don't tell a farmer what to sell
Speaker 7: is apple for, and we don't tell a grocer what
Speaker 7: to sell it for. That's how our economy works. We
Speaker 7: don't have the Ministry of grocery pricing. There's no way
Speaker 7: to monitor this. We tried the seventies, they tried it
Speaker 7: in the late eighties and the Soviet Union. They've been
Speaker 7: trying it in Venezuela. It leads to shortages and hyperinflation.
Speaker 7: This policy is beyond bad. It's insane, and I think
Speaker 7: it will go nowhere. I get why she's doing it,
Speaker 7: it's populous, but we're all waiting for when she has
Speaker 7: to sit in front of you a reporter, who will
Speaker 7: ask her how she's going to implement this. That's when
Speaker 7: this falls apart. There is no way to do this,
Speaker 7: and every time it's tried, it's ended up in an
Speaker 7: absolute catastrophe.
Speaker 2: Every time it's been tried, it ends up an absolute catastrophe.
Speaker 2: And this clip was back in August when he said it,
Speaker 2: and yet still it seems like it's breaking news for
Speaker 2: people that are in normal Middle America.
Speaker 3: Now, I will say there are a couple of premises
Speaker 3: of what he said that have proven false. Number One,
Speaker 3: he says, when she sits in front of you a reporter, Well,
Speaker 3: she's not sitting in front of reporters, and he said
Speaker 3: who secondly will ask her how she's going to do it.
Speaker 3: The handful of time she has sat in front of
Speaker 3: her reporters, they throw softballs to her and ask her
Speaker 3: how she became so amazing and wonderful, and you know,
Speaker 3: I'm waiting for the what's your favorite ice cream? Although
Speaker 3: that's their Joe Biden question. So she's not getting any
Speaker 3: pushback from the press. That being said, like you made
Speaker 3: a comment when you said that that that that the
Speaker 3: price controls were communist, and it reminded me of you know,
Speaker 3: during the debate, Trump said, well, she's a Marxist and
Speaker 3: her father was a Marxist professor, and I got to
Speaker 3: say both when you said it, when he said it,
Speaker 3: I think to some people that seems a little jarring
Speaker 3: because the word communist or Marxist just sounds like an insult.
Speaker 3: It's like you're calling someone, you know, just a jerk.
Speaker 3: But look, being a Marxist, be a communist, that that
Speaker 3: is an actual thing. It is something that has substance
Speaker 3: and content. Marxism is the philosophy that was taught by
Speaker 3: Karl Marx, and it is the predicate for communism. And
Speaker 3: the reason you said, and you said rightly that price
Speaker 3: controls are communists. But this is not even theoretical Marxism. Actually,
Speaker 3: theoretical Marxism doesn't have a whole lot about about price controls.
Speaker 3: It is rather practical Marxism that you look at communist countries,
Speaker 3: you look at the Soviet Union, you look at you,
Speaker 3: you look at Cuba, you look at at Venezuela, and
Speaker 3: what they end up doing is the government fixes prices
Speaker 3: and says, okay, if you want a gallon of milk,
Speaker 3: we're going to say a gallon of milk is a dollar.
Speaker 3: And then they just pick a number, and they pick
Speaker 3: a number that they want to sound low because people
Speaker 3: will be happy. And then what what O'Leary said is
Speaker 3: what happens. The price controls are always wrong and you
Speaker 3: end up having massive shortages. So if you looked at
Speaker 3: the Soviet Union, you just saw empty grocery shells, so
Speaker 3: it was great you had a dollar for a gallon
Speaker 3: of milk. There was just no milk, but you were
Speaker 3: really happy it was so cheap if it were there.
Speaker 3: And that Oleary is right that every place it has
Speaker 3: been tried, it fails. And the reason is a price
Speaker 3: is reflecting millions of inputs and outputs and its supply
Speaker 3: and demand meeting each other, and the government has never
Speaker 3: been smart enough to figure that out. They always always,
Speaker 3: always get it wrong. And this is where left us say, well,
Speaker 3: next time, we'll do it better. Well, it never has been.
Speaker 3: Nobody ever has gotten it right. And I'm willing to
Speaker 3: venture that Kamala is not smarter than everyone else who's
Speaker 3: tried price controls in the past.
Speaker 2: So when you look at this as an issue, Larry
Speaker 2: Kudlow when it came out, he said, this is price controls,
Speaker 2: controls by any other name, and let's just call it
Speaker 2: what it is.
Speaker 1: It's it's been a failure.
Speaker 2: But he also warned about what happens with the black market,
Speaker 2: and he said he went in and he said, let's
Speaker 2: just talk about profits, because she kept coming back, and
Speaker 2: this is what the Democrats do. They demonize people that
Speaker 2: make money. And he said, let's just talk about corporate margins.
Speaker 2: And he said, if they're gouging somebody, they must be
Speaker 2: enormously profitable. And they are not referring to grocers, right,
Speaker 2: he said, okay, He said, grocery store profit margin is
Speaker 2: one point two percent, the meat, beef and poultry four
Speaker 2: point seven percent. All of American businesses, by the way
Speaker 2: are well above that at eight and a half percent.
Speaker 2: And he said, look, if she wants to go after
Speaker 2: somebody for making too much money, Apple, for example, they
Speaker 2: make twenty six percent, Microsoft thirty six percent, Navida fifty
Speaker 2: three percent. He said, So the idea that the grocery
Speaker 2: market is the problem with a grocery stores profit margin
Speaker 2: on average last year was one point two percent, he said,
Speaker 2: his total insanity. And this is her trying to blame
Speaker 2: her bad policies on somebody else.
Speaker 3: Well, look, she has a political imperative to do this,
Speaker 3: which is people are really unhappy with inflation, they're unhappy
Speaker 3: with the economy, they're unhappy with the illegal immigration, they're
Speaker 3: unhappy with crime, and so she knows. I remember at
Speaker 3: the debate, the very first question asked in the debate
Speaker 3: is are you better off now than you were four
Speaker 3: years ago? That is, there's such a powerful, inherent impetus
Speaker 3: to this that well, okay, listen to what Tim Waltz
Speaker 3: had to say on exactly this point.
Speaker 7: We can't afford, we can't afford four.
Speaker 1: More years of this senator.
Speaker 2: That should be an ad that's instantly made, not just
Speaker 2: for Trump, but I think for anybody running for Off.
Speaker 1: It's like Harrison Waltz.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's right in front of him, it's on
Speaker 2: the podium, the signs are behind him in Pennsylvania, and
Speaker 2: he says, we can't handle four more years of this,
Speaker 2: and yet it's her policies it got us to where
Speaker 2: we are right now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know if the Trump campaign has actually
Speaker 3: put out as an ad. I know I've seen on
Speaker 3: Twitter that clip and then I'm Donald Trump and I
Speaker 3: approved this message because it literally that the inherent impetus
Speaker 3: to say, are you better off now than you are
Speaker 3: four years ago? Tim walt is saying, we can't afford
Speaker 3: four more years of this. Wait a second. Kamala Harris
Speaker 3: is in charge. She and Joe Biden are both in
Speaker 3: They are the president and vice president. And that's their
Speaker 3: fundamental problem is they're trying to run a change campaign
Speaker 3: of everything sucks, so vote for me and I'll change it.
Speaker 3: But she's the one in office. And listen, it's incumbent.
Speaker 3: The media are not going to point that out. Kamala
Speaker 3: is not going to point that out. So it is
Speaker 3: incumbent on the Trump campaign to point that out.
Speaker 2: All right, So you mentioned the Trump campaign and Donald
Speaker 2: Trump has already said it made it very queer. He's
Speaker 2: not having another debate. Kamala Harris has said I want
Speaker 2: another debate after the last one. There's a vice president
Speaker 2: debate that's coming out in the next six weeks. Usually,
Speaker 2: and traditionally, vice president debates don't really move the needle
Speaker 2: when it comes to the polls.
Speaker 1: They just don't.
Speaker 2: Now that can be good or bad, depending on how
Speaker 2: you look at it, but traditionally it doesn't move the needle.
Speaker 2: Is this vice president to debate, in your opinion, any
Speaker 2: more important because there is only one debate between these
Speaker 2: times beforehand.
Speaker 3: Look, I think some people will watch it. You and
Speaker 3: I will watch it because we're both politics nerds. But
Speaker 3: I think the viewership will be a fraction of the
Speaker 3: viewership that watched Trump versus Harris, and I think it'll
Speaker 3: probably be the two of them just pounding the hell
Speaker 3: out of each other. I suspect I suspect neither of
Speaker 3: them like each other very much, and I think it'll
Speaker 3: be nasty. I think they'll be snarky. I think they'll
Speaker 3: be you know, JD is very bright, Waltz appears to
Speaker 3: be bright as well, So I think they'll both be
Speaker 3: just slugging it out. But I do not see the
Speaker 3: VP debate as moving a significant number of votes either direction.
Speaker 2: It goes back to like you said earlier, it's the
Speaker 2: economy stupid. I want to deal with the second issue
Speaker 2: on your list, and that was illegal immigration, and also
Speaker 2: it really does come into the also the issue of crime.
Speaker 2: We're going to deal with that in the moment, but
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Speaker 2: service today. So let's move to subject number two that
Speaker 2: you think is really it's pulling, not just you saying
Speaker 2: this or I'm saying this, it's pulling at number two,
Speaker 2: and it is the issue of an open or in
Speaker 2: illegal immigration. Democrats, I don't think realize how big of
Speaker 2: a liability this was going to be for them, But
Speaker 2: we're seeing it play out in places like Arola, Colorado.
Speaker 2: We're seeing it play out in New York City. We're
Speaker 2: seeing it playing out in all of these major quote
Speaker 2: sanctuary cities that they bragged about just two years ago
Speaker 2: in the election.
Speaker 1: We're a sanctuary city.
Speaker 2: Where a sanctuary city, We're a welcoming city, We're a
Speaker 2: loving city. Hell, I mean the mayor of New York
Speaker 2: City was running on that that we're a sanctuary city.
Speaker 2: Now he's like, get out of here, you're ruining my city.
Speaker 2: That is going to be a big liability and election day.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And look, broadly speaking, there are two major demographic trends
Speaker 3: in America. Number one, blue collar voters are moving right.
Speaker 3: That that is moving Midwestern states more republican. But number two,
Speaker 3: suburban voters and in particular suburban women, have been moving left.
Speaker 3: And that has been moving big suburban states like Georgia,
Speaker 3: like Texas, like Arizona, they've been getting more purple because
Speaker 3: they have large suburban populations. Part of the reason that
Speaker 3: illegal immigration is is such a powerful issue this race
Speaker 3: is that with suburban women, illegal immigration is often topping
Speaker 3: the list of their top issue and listen. For many
Speaker 3: suburban women in twenty twenty, they were not particularly fond
Speaker 3: of Trump's tone and his rhetoric mean even though they
Speaker 3: agreed with him on the issues, that they didn't like
Speaker 3: the way he said it, and many of them voted Democrats.
Speaker 3: The question now, as illegal immigration and crime has gotten
Speaker 3: worse and worse, is Okay, you're a suburban mom, do
Speaker 3: you really want an MS thirteen gangbanger living next door
Speaker 3: to you and threatening your kids? And it is it's
Speaker 3: becoming real when they see Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment
Speaker 3: buildings in Aurural, Colorado, or in al Paso, or in Chicago.
Speaker 3: When when they see day after day after day Americans
Speaker 3: being killed, women being raped, children being raped by illegal
Speaker 3: immigrants being released, that fundamentally starts to it really goes
Speaker 3: to safety and security. It becomes real, It becomes wait,
Speaker 3: this is threatening my family. And so that is an
Speaker 3: issue which which I hope every day between now an
Speaker 3: election day. The economy and illegal immigration are every day,
Speaker 3: every topic, all day law.
Speaker 2: When you look at not just the issue of safety,
Speaker 2: is the issue of the financial burden on the community
Speaker 2: becoming enough of an issue that it is going to
Speaker 2: matter an election to I say that because in Colorado,
Speaker 2: for example, in Denver, they're actually having to move resources around,
Speaker 2: They're not able to hire an adequate police force because
Speaker 2: so much money is now going to take care of
Speaker 2: illegal immigrants. New York City, it is a drain on
Speaker 2: their economy, not just the safety aspect, but a drain
Speaker 2: financially the amount of money it's taking. Is that also
Speaker 2: one of the things that you think Democrats maybe didn't
Speaker 2: calculate when they were figuring this one out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's a bigger issue for Democrat politicians
Speaker 3: than it is for voters. So if you're the mayor
Speaker 3: of New York, the financial drains a real problem because
Speaker 3: you've got to figure out where to get the money
Speaker 3: for all these hotel rooms that you're putting illegal aliens in.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure the voters necessarily make the connection between
Speaker 3: where that money is coming from. It is an issue,
Speaker 3: but I think a far more potent issue in New
Speaker 3: York City, for example, is we covered on a podcast
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago the reports that's seventy five percent,
Speaker 3: seventy five percent of the crimes in Midtown Manhattan were
Speaker 3: being committed by illegal aliens. I mean, that is a
Speaker 3: stunning number. That is a number that I think people
Speaker 3: understandably get really upset about, why are you bringing criminals
Speaker 3: into my community?
Speaker 4: And it's why.
Speaker 3: Kamala is desperately trying to run away from this issue. Look,
Speaker 3: she has spent her entire career denouncing the wall, arguing
Speaker 3: for amnesty, saying illegal immigration shouldn't be illegal. On every issue,
Speaker 3: she's been an open border radical. She is right now
Speaker 3: spending millions of dollars running TV ads with Donald Trump's
Speaker 3: border wall. I mean, it is a fundamentally a duplicitous strategy.
Speaker 3: She's trying to pretend that her record is the exact
Speaker 3: opposite of what it is. I think that can work sometimes,
Speaker 3: but at the end of the day, I'm a big
Speaker 3: believer that truth will prevail, and I think it's just
Speaker 3: so fundamentally false, and I think the Democrats are pretty
Speaker 3: skeptical of the voters. They think the voters are stupid
Speaker 3: and gullible, frankly, and that they can be conned. I
Speaker 3: think the voters have more sense than that.
Speaker 2: You know, you mentioned the moments that stick with us,
Speaker 2: and I go back to another viral moment that happened
Speaker 2: this last week, and it was the former chief of
Speaker 2: Border Patrol agent that was ordered by the Biden Harris
Speaker 2: administration to cover up the disastrous numbers at the border,
Speaker 2: and when he said this to Congress. It is still
Speaker 2: at this moment going viral.
Speaker 5: Once where it was out the border was far easier
Speaker 5: to cross. Sandy went to over one hundred sias in
Speaker 5: twenty twenty two, well over that in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 5: and even more than that registered this year. These are
Speaker 5: only the ones we caught. At the time, I was
Speaker 5: told I could not release any information on this increase
Speaker 5: in SIAS or mention any of the arrests. The administration
Speaker 5: was trying to convince the public there was no threat
Speaker 5: at the border. Fentanyl is another issue. The San Diego
Speaker 5: area sees between eighty and ninety percent of the methan
Speaker 5: phetamine in fentanyl seizures. Annually for our entire country. With
Speaker 5: little enforcement at the border, these drugs were coming through
Speaker 5: in mass. During my last year in San Diego, the
Speaker 5: price for a single pill of fentanyl, for example, went
Speaker 5: from ten dollars to twenty five cents.
Speaker 4: To make matters worse.
Speaker 5: During twenty twenty two and twenty three, I had to
Speaker 5: shut down San Diego traffic checkpoints, which are critical for
Speaker 5: drug in addiction because the resources had been diverted to
Speaker 5: the process and release mission.
Speaker 4: The large numbers also had.
Speaker 5: And still have a negative impact to the San Diego community.
Speaker 5: I had to release the illegal aliens by the hundreds
Speaker 5: each day into communities who could not support them. To
Speaker 5: quiet the problem, two flights a week were provided from
Speaker 5: San Diego to Texas. These flights simply brought aliens that
Speaker 5: would have been released in San Diego over to Texas.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's got to just make you live it
Speaker 2: as the Senator from Texas to hear him just say, yeah,
Speaker 2: they just sent planes and dropped him off in Texas.
Speaker 3: Well, of course it does. And for this White House
Speaker 3: it's all political. And so they've decided Joe Biden, Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris that they hate Texas and They're perfectly happy to
Speaker 3: dump as many illegal aliens as they can in Texas.
Speaker 3: Never mind the millions that we have flooding into our
Speaker 3: state because of Joe Biden Kamala Harris's open border policies.
Speaker 3: Now they're flying him in from other states to Texas
Speaker 3: and it is at the end of the day, completely indefensible.
Speaker 3: And my hope is that the Trump campaign puts this
Speaker 3: issue in front of the voters each and every day
Speaker 3: because Kamala Harris does not want to talk about this, So.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about I think finally, where we are and
Speaker 2: when it comes to the Senate, which is so important
Speaker 2: the Senate, if we don't have control of the Senate,
Speaker 2: it just makes things so hard, even if you've got
Speaker 2: the White House to get stuff done that can have
Speaker 2: real change and move us back to where we need
Speaker 2: to go. A lot of people that walk up to
Speaker 2: me ask me that I'm sure the same questions they
Speaker 2: ask you, which is, okay, can we flip the Senate?
Speaker 1: Can we get back control of the Senate?
Speaker 2: And you've got to look at the swing states, and
Speaker 2: you got to look at these some tight elections. We
Speaker 2: thought we were gonna have a good chance in the
Speaker 2: last the mid terms to get the Senate back.
Speaker 1: We didn't.
Speaker 2: And so now you look at this this time, what
Speaker 2: does it look like for us and and and how
Speaker 2: should people look at these issues and how are they
Speaker 2: going to work in these swing states.
Speaker 3: So, look, there's good news and bad news that The
Speaker 3: good news is it's a very favorable map for Republicans.
Speaker 3: There a bunch of Democrat seats that are up in
Speaker 3: red states or purple states that Trump has a real
Speaker 3: shot of winning. And so six seven weeks ago, when
Speaker 3: Biden was at the top of the ticket, Republicans were
Speaker 3: on track to win four or five six Senate seats.
Speaker 3: It was set up to be just a fantastic election.
Speaker 3: The election is titaned. Kamala replacing Joe Biden at the
Speaker 3: top of the tickets has moved the race of the
Speaker 3: Democrats direction. And the reason was Joe Biden was only
Speaker 3: getting about eighty five percent of Democrats when he was
Speaker 3: the nominee. Democrats were demoralized, they were dispirited, they were fractured.
Speaker 3: And by the way, those eighty five percent that meant
Speaker 3: fifteen percent we're either going to stay home or we're
Speaker 3: looking to vote Republican and so it was going to
Speaker 3: be a big, big Republican year Kamala with her at
Speaker 3: the top of the ticket, much of the Democrat party
Speaker 3: has come home and so she's getting anywhere from ninety
Speaker 3: two to ninety five percent of the Democrats.
Speaker 4: That has moved the races.
Speaker 3: So right now the Democrats have a fifty one forty
Speaker 3: nine advantage in the Senate. If you look at if
Speaker 3: you assume that the polling today is what would happen,
Speaker 3: and that's not a fair assumption, by the way. We're
Speaker 3: six weeks out and I think the issue set favors Republicans.
Speaker 3: But if you assume the polling today is what would happen,
Speaker 3: then number one, Republicans are going to win West Virginia.
Speaker 3: It's essentially one hundred percent that we're going to win
Speaker 3: West Virginia. Joe Manchin, a Democrat, is the incumbent Senator
Speaker 3: from West Virginia. He's not running for reelection, and so
Speaker 3: Jim Justice, the governor, is the Republican nominee. The Democrats
Speaker 3: have essentially conceded West Virginia. It's such a red state.
Speaker 3: It went for Trump by thirty eight points last time.
Speaker 3: We will win West Virginia. That means we start with
Speaker 3: the Senate at fifty to fifty. Of the remaining swing states,
Speaker 3: the only one where the Senate candidate is consistently leading
Speaker 3: is Montana. But we are consistently leading in Montana. That
Speaker 3: means if the election day were today and the polls
Speaker 3: are accurate, the result would be fifty one forty nine,
Speaker 3: a Republican majority. Now, let's break through state by state.
Speaker 3: What are the states that are in play, and we'll
Speaker 3: just go alphabetically through the various swing states.
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Speaker 2: let's go through these states. And this is when I
Speaker 2: say to vertical listeners, grab your pen and paper, because
Speaker 2: this is where on election night you're gonna love watching
Speaker 2: the results come in With these different states and the
Speaker 2: knowledge that we're about to give you all.
Speaker 3: Right, so let's start with Arizona. The best way typically
Speaker 3: to consume polling numbers is to look to the Real
Speaker 3: Clear Politics average and so look their variations among poles.
Speaker 3: Some polls are more accurate than others. But the way
Speaker 3: most political professionals do is they look to the polling average,
Speaker 3: and the theory is the averages sort of. It averages
Speaker 3: out the ups and the downs. So if you look
Speaker 3: to the Real Clear Politics average in Arizona, right now,
Speaker 3: this is a race between Gayego the Democrat, and Kerry
Speaker 3: Lake the Republican. Right now, Gayego is leading by four
Speaker 3: point three points, So that's the average. That's the average
Speaker 3: of the last four polls that have been done in
Speaker 3: that race. Trump has a good chance of winning Arizona.
Speaker 3: So right now Trump is outperforming Carrie Lake in that state,
Speaker 3: but four points is very winnable. She can win that race.
Speaker 3: But according to the average, right now, the Democrats are ahead.
Speaker 3: Let's move to Michigan. If you look at Michigan, the
Speaker 3: two candidates are Slotkin the Democrat and Mike Rodgers the Republican.
Speaker 3: In Michigan, the Real Clear Politics average is the Democrat
Speaker 3: at five point one percent, So again five points is
Speaker 3: pretty close, but it does show an advantage right now
Speaker 3: for the Democrats, and that's an average of one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
Speaker 4: Eight polls in the last month.
Speaker 3: The Democrat is ahead by an average of five point
Speaker 3: one percent.
Speaker 4: All right, let's go to Montana.
Speaker 3: Montana, I mentioned is the brightest spot in terms of
Speaker 3: the pickup. This is a battle between John Tester the Democrat,
Speaker 3: the incumbent, and Tim Sheehey the Republican. And she He
Speaker 3: is a head on an average of five point two points,
Speaker 3: so that's sizable.
Speaker 4: It's not decisive.
Speaker 3: Tester could still come back and win it, but that's
Speaker 3: been a consistent lead. If you look at the last
Speaker 3: four polls, she He plus six, she He plus seven,
Speaker 3: she He plus six, and she He plus two, so
Speaker 3: that that's been a consistent lead. All right, Let's look
Speaker 3: to Nevada. So Nevada, the numbers are bumpier. The incumbent
Speaker 3: is Jackie Rosen. She's a Democrat. Sam Brown is a Republican.
Speaker 3: The real Clear Politics average is Rosen by eight point
Speaker 3: eight percent, so that's a pretty sizable lead. Nevada is
Speaker 3: another state where Trump is very competitive and so he
Speaker 3: could win Trump it may be that the polling numbers
Speaker 3: or understating where Brown is but eight point eight percent
Speaker 3: is there's some distance to be closed on the average
Speaker 3: polling there.
Speaker 2: I'll ask you this real quick before you move forward,
Speaker 2: because it's a question. I know everybody's asking their head.
Speaker 2: All right, you just mentioned this state, and then you
Speaker 2: mentioned Arizona earlier where Trump is leading but Carlake is
Speaker 2: not there. How often do you see a presidential election
Speaker 2: cycle historically where the Republican wins in the state but
Speaker 2: the person next down the bound the Senate race loses,
Speaker 2: where people walk in there yes for Trump and no
Speaker 2: for the Senate candidate. Is that happened very often?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that that happens with some regularity. And Trump in
Speaker 3: most states is going to get more votes than the
Speaker 3: down ballot Republicans. For one thing, there are people that
Speaker 3: come in that just vote president and leave. And then
Speaker 3: there are also there will be some voters in every
Speaker 3: one of these states who votes for Trump at the
Speaker 3: top of the ticket and then for a Democrat Senate candidate.
Speaker 3: I wish they didn't. It is frustrating as all get out,
Speaker 3: but there exists, and to.
Speaker 2: Because way, you're like voting against your own interests of
Speaker 2: what you're saying you want for the country. With the President, well,
Speaker 2: he needs the votes in the House and Senate to
Speaker 2: get that agenda done.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and there tend to be more crossover voters who
Speaker 3: do Trump and a Democrat Senate candidate, then there are
Speaker 3: crossover voters who vote Kamala Harris at a Republican Senate candidate.
Speaker 3: It just at the end of the day, it has
Speaker 3: tended to be a one way ratchet. Let's go to Ohio.
Speaker 3: Ohio is the next closest after Montana, and the two
Speaker 3: candidates are shared. Brown the Democrat, who's the incumbent, Bernie
Speaker 3: Mourno the Republican. The Real Claire Politics average is the
Speaker 3: Democrat up by three point six percent. So the last
Speaker 3: three polls were plus two plus five, plus four, So
Speaker 3: Ohio is definitely winnable. Trump is extremely likely to win Ohio.
Speaker 3: He could win Ohio by double digits. But right now
Speaker 3: Brown is polling substantially ahead of where Kamala Harris is
Speaker 3: in Ohio. And so Ohio is a state where there
Speaker 3: are a number of voters right now who say they're
Speaker 3: voting for Donald Trump, and yet a Democrat senator who
Speaker 3: will fight to undermine everything Trump does every single day
Speaker 3: in the Senate, Which is why I wish voters wouldn't
Speaker 3: do that. I don't think that makes sense, and I
Speaker 3: think it ends up working against yourself. But nonetheless, there's
Speaker 3: some voters that do all right. Pennsylvania. So Pennsylvania is
Speaker 3: probably the most important battle around in the country. It
Speaker 3: is the state most likely to decide the presidential race.
Speaker 3: The incumbent is Bob Casey is a Democrat. Dave McCormick
Speaker 3: the Republican, a very good friend of mine who I've
Speaker 3: endorsed in campaigned with multiple times. Across Pennsylvania. The Real
Speaker 3: Clear Politics average is four point nine percent. And so
Speaker 3: starting from so back in August, there was a tie,
Speaker 3: then Casey plus one, then Casey plus seven, then case
Speaker 3: plus eighth andk C plus four, then Casey plus nine,
Speaker 3: then Casey plus five and k C plus five, and
Speaker 3: Casey plus five, then Casey plus nine, and then the
Speaker 3: Washington Post the most recent poll showed it as a tie.
Speaker 3: So look, there's some there's some variability on that. So
Speaker 3: the last two polls were Casey plus nine and a tie.
Speaker 3: I mean, that's a big delta between those two. Yeah,
Speaker 3: and so, and so it's why you tend to look
Speaker 3: to the average, because the average kind of takes out
Speaker 3: the highs and lows. And so four point nine percent,
Speaker 3: you would say, right now the Democrats have an advantage,
Speaker 3: But four point nine percent you can definitely close between
Speaker 3: now an election day, and I think the issue set
Speaker 3: favors us all right. Maryland, Maryland is a state that
Speaker 3: shouldn't be a battleground. It's a very blue state. It
Speaker 3: is going to go it is going to go for
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris by double digits. And yet you've got Larry Hogan,
Speaker 3: Larry Hogan, the former governor. There is a Republican, very
Speaker 3: popular governor running against a Democrat. Also Brooks. The Real
Speaker 3: Clear Politics average is six point eight percent. But again
Speaker 3: there's been a lot of variability on this. So back
Speaker 3: in August there was a poll that was a tie,
Speaker 3: and then Democrat plus five, Democrat plus seven, and then
Speaker 3: there was one just recently Democrat plus fifteen. So Maryland
Speaker 3: is a race that is winnable. But to do that,
Speaker 3: Hogan is going to have to outperform Trump by twenty
Speaker 3: points or more that ain't easy to do. That that
Speaker 3: is a big, big delta. He was the governor there,
Speaker 3: he was very popular, and he's the only he's the
Speaker 3: only Republican who has a prayer to win in Maryland.
Speaker 3: But Maryland is not an easy state for a Republican
Speaker 3: to win. And the final battleground is Wisconsin. Wisconsin is
Speaker 3: Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat who's the incumbent. Eric Hovedy is
Speaker 3: the Republican running against her. The real Clear Politics average
Speaker 3: is Democrat four point six percent, so again close winnable,
Speaker 3: but right now the Democrats have the advantage. Although it's
Speaker 3: interesting if you look at the polls, but going back
Speaker 3: to August, it was Democrat plus six, Democrat plus five,
Speaker 3: Democrat plus eight, but then the last four polls have
Speaker 3: been Democrat plus three, Democrat plus three, Democrat plus four,
Speaker 3: Democrat plus three.
Speaker 4: So the race is.
Speaker 3: In the last couple of weeks and it's about a
Speaker 3: three and a half point differential in the in the
Speaker 3: last four polls, which means Wisconsin is very winnable. And look,
Speaker 3: every one of these states that I mentioned is winnable
Speaker 3: by the Republicans. But for us to win, the numbers
Speaker 3: need to shift four or five points. And to do that,
Speaker 3: we've got to focus on the issues. And the issues
Speaker 3: are the same issues as the presidential the economy, inflation,
Speaker 3: illegal immigration, and crime. And if we focus on those,
Speaker 3: I think we've got a real shot at winning every
Speaker 3: one of those six weeks.
Speaker 2: It's getting here very quickly, election day and early voting.
Speaker 2: It's incredible we are in it now. I hope you
Speaker 2: guys will take the show, share it wherever you are
Speaker 2: on social media. Make sure that subscriber auto download button
Speaker 2: will keep covering these important poll numbers as they come out.
Speaker 2: And on those in between days, as you know, we
Speaker 2: do the show Monday, Wednesday Friday. On those in between days,
Speaker 2: grab my show, that Ben Ferguson podcast, and I'll keep
Speaker 2: you up to date on the latest breaking news as
Speaker 2: well the Center. I will see you back here Wednesday morning.