WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: July 18, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:01.639 --> 0:00:05.040 Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day 0:00:05.160 --> 0:00:07.880 at Bloomberg dot com for the Bloomberg Business at and 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:17.760 at Bloomberg Quicktape. He's a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:20.919 Karen Moscow and Bank of America earnings crossing the Bloomberg 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:23.360 as we speak. We are going to break them down 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:25.720 in just moments from now at the Bloomberg Intelligence Senior 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:29.520 Financial Services Allison Williams. She'll be joining us in just 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:31.560 a moment. And first we go to the first Word 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:34.920 breaking news dance for today's morning call. Here's Bill Maloney. Bill, 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:38.040 good morning, and good morning Karen, and speaking those Bank 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:40.519 of American numbers. Q two trading revenue x d v 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:44.120 A was four billion. That Smith their four point one 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:46.839 billion US hugues with a bid right now at DEW 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:49.239 futures up two hundred and sixty eight points, subs game 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:52.120 thirty six, will Nastick futures are up by one thirty 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:55.440 seven US ten year at two point nine six percent, 0:00:55.520 --> 0:00:57.840 Gold is up twelve oils in the green, and bitcoin 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:01.200 trading hired by six percent. Hong Kong rose two points 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:03.920 seven percent overnight, while up markets are also in the green. 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:06.920 The Bay games in France and Germany. Back in the US. 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.480 On the economic front, at ten o'clock, the NHB housing 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.240 marketing in x and regarding earnings. This morning also looked 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:15.160 for Schwab and Goldman Sachs to report in the pre market. 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.039 In undernews, Goldman Sachs also said it's too early to 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:21.440 assume inflation is easing and wrapping things up, A Brinker 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.520 was cut to neutral. We Right, Goldman Live from the 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:26.880 first Breaking News desk on Bill Maloney. Care All right, 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:29.039 Bill to your live breaking news over your Bloomberg catch 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:31.840 squawk on your terminal squ a w u K and 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:34.600 US at Bloomberg Business Flash. Now, Here's John Tucker with 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:37.759 more on what's going on around the world. John, Good morning, Karen. 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.800 Three people killed them all in Greenwood in again of yesterday, 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:43.560 in a shooting that ended when an armed man fatally 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:47.720 shopped the gunman. A new report finds egregiously poor decision 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:50.480 making on the part of law enforcement responding the mass 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:54.200 shooting at the Valdi Elementary School in Texas. Sports Camp 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:57.919 Smith wins Golf's British Open. Yankees beat the Red Sox 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.320 thirteen to two, Metsalus to the three to two, the 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:04.480 Financials beat the Brave seven three, the Orioles lose to 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:06.640 the Raise seven of five, and the A's beat the 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:10.120 astros four to three. Global News twenty four hours day 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:13.040 on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake power by more than 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:16.000 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:19.760 d twenty countries. I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg Karon. 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:22.440 All right, John, thank you, and again we're watching earnings 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:25.880 from Bank of America across the Bloomberg. It reported trading 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:29.720 revenue that met analysts estimates. Shares are moving lower and 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.440 early trading down one point four percent. And we're going 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.119 to break those earnings down in just moments from now 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:39.440 with Bloomberg Intelligence senior financial services analysts Alison Williams. But 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:42.240 first it is sixty nine on Wall Street. We turned 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:44.880 to news and science and technology now with the Bloomberg 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:47.519 and j I T. STEM Report. It has brought to 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.800 you buy New Jersey Institute of Technology, ranked top fifty 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:54.320 national public university by US News and World's Report in 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:57.320 number fourteen in the nation on Money's Best Colleges list. 0:02:57.680 --> 0:02:59.720 Learn more at n J I T dot E D 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.200 you and here's US making news in science, technology, engineering, 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:06.919 and math. A startup in Cambridge, Massachusetts, says it can 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:10.200 use artificial intelligence to help predict future variants of COVID 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:14.680 nineteen A Priori Bio said it's harnessing information with the 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:18.840 aim of helping pharmaceutical companies produce variant proof vaccines. The 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.600 company hopes its services will provide an early warning to 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:25.040 governments about how future variants might behave, sort of like 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.400 a hurricane alert. The United Arab Emirates will set up 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:30.720 a fund worth close to a billion dollars to develop 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:33.200 satellites as it moves forward with the Middle east most 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:37.240 ambitious space program. The program includes plans to explore Venus 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:40.080 within a seven years and land on an asteroid in 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.640 addition to launching a spacecraft into Martian orbit, and the 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.720 US and Russian space agencies have agreed to resume having 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:49.520 a crew member's right to the International Space Station on 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:52.880 each other's rockets. The arrangement will send an integrated crew 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:56.080 to the space station in September, according to NASA. That's 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:58.840 a Bloomberg and j I t st and rapport. Nathan. 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:00.920 All right, Karen, thank you. We are live from the 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:03.200 Bloomberg it directive broker studios where we're coming up to 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:05.440 six fifty one on Wall Street. As you mentioned, Bank 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:08.280 of America earnings are continuing to cross the Bloomberg terminal. 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:11.560 So let's bring in Bloomberg Intelligence senior Financial services analyst 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.920 Alison Williams for a breakdown of these results. Allison, we 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:16.880 saw a bit of a pop in the Bank of 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.480 America's stock on the headline that trading revenue basically came 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:24.240 in line with estimates. Now we're seeing those gains erased 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:27.160 and the stock is falling. What stands out to you? 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:30.600 So the one thing that stands out to us if 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:34.880 the capital ratio. Keep in mind that we thought JP 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:39.000 Morgan pausing there buy backs. UM. Bank of America had 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:41.279 already talked about pausing their buy back and in fact 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:46.640 those came in much lower UH last quarter, and the 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:49.560 capital ratio is a little bit light of where they 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:52.280 need to be in the fourth quarter. UM. We learned 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:55.760 about those new requirings with the stress tests. And how 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:59.279 about the net interest income? Obviously this is something that 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:02.280 we're watching with all of the banks as the FED 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:07.040 is in a tightening cycle. How'd that do the net 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:11.000 interest income? UM looks good. The loan growth looks good. 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:15.880 UM operating leverage is positive. So from a core basis, 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:19.880 UM things look pretty good. Consumers spending strong. I think 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:21.960 it's I my guess it's going to be that it's 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:24.840 a capital ratio that investors are reacting to trading also, 0:05:24.960 --> 0:05:26.839 by the way, it looks a little bit better. And 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.159 in terms of provisions for credit losses, those came in 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.800 lower than analysts were expecting. What does that tell you? 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:37.280 There's no reserve built, So we're gonna want to hear 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:41.400 a little bit more detail on the call. But UM 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:45.440 credit across the banks has been stronger, so we know 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:49.560 that the consumer today is in a great position. And 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:54.040 the fact that they're not adding reserves UM could mean that, 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:57.480 you know, based on their economic scenarios, they feel that 0:05:57.520 --> 0:06:00.480 they're in a good position already. And as we watch 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:03.600 the earnings continue to roll in, Bank America's stock down 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:06.760 down about two percent in the pre market. Allison Williams 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:09.440 of Bloomberg Intelligence were checking back with you throughout the 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:12.120 morning as we await the final results as well from 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:15.760 Goldman Sachs wrapping up bank earning season. In the meantime, 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:18.120 it is now six fifty three on Wall Street, and 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:19.880 we want to check what's going on in d C, 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.280 where some of the top stories include President Biden returning 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:26.839 from Saudi Arabia without a promise of increased oil production. 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:31.159 The US Envoy for Energy Security, Almost Hostein, says he 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:33.839 is confident to Gulf nations will boost output in the 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:37.000 coming weeks. There is additional spare capacity. There is room 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:40.080 for increased production UH, as we've told producers in the 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:43.719 United States. We've had conversations over the last coeuple of 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:47.159 months and weeks with OPEC UH, and I believe that 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.279 there is still more room to UH to see additional steps. 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.120 Almost Hochstein with the State Department was on CBS's Face 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:56.200 the Nation. In the meantime, White House Economic Advisor Jared 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:59.200 Bernstein tells Fox News Sunday drivers are starting to feel 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.240 less pain at the hump. The price of gas has 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.240 come down fifty cents a gallon. There are now twenty 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:07.520 thousand gas stations across this country where gases below four 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:10.080 dollars a gallon still too high, but that's moving in 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:13.160 the right direction, giving Americans some much needed breathing room. 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:16.480 Also making new Senator Joe Mansion blocking a slim down 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:20.680 economic package out of concern over inflation. Independent Bernie Sanders 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:24.880 tells ABC's This Week Mansion is sabotaging President Biden's agenda. 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:28.080 In my humble opinion, you know, match and represents the 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:31.080 very wealthiest people in this country, not working families in 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:34.360 West Virginia or America. And the House January six Committee 0:07:34.360 --> 0:07:37.600 expects to receive deleted text messages from the Secret Service 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:41.240 by tomorrow under subpoena. Committee member Zoe Lofgren was also 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:44.120 on this week. I was shocked to hear that they 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:47.480 didn't back up their data before they reset their iPhones. 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:49.960 That's crazy. I don't know why that would be, but 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:52.720 we need to get this information to get the full picture. 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.240 You can hear this week Fox News Sunday and Face 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:58.240 the Nation every Sunday right here on Bloomberg Radio and 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:01.000 from More. We're joined by Bloomberg Government Order Emily Wilkins 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:04.120 in the nation's capital. So, Emily, President Biden comes back 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:06.920 from the Middle East right into a fight over inflation 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:10.360 and spending. Yeah, and that's going to make it extra 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:13.040 critical for President Biden to be able to show that 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:15.880 this trip did amount to something when it comes to 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:19.680 terms of gas prices. Uh. Us Envoy, who was on 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.320 the trip in the touch sign with the State Department, 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.720 said he is confident that golf producers will increase oil 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:29.880 output after that trip. But Toddie said any decision to 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:32.240 increase oil production would have to be made at that 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.040 August started OPAC meeting. So we're gonna have to see 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:38.280 exactly what happens here. But Biden certainly something he can 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:40.720 point to. He came under heavy criticism for that fist 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:44.679 bump that he exchanged with Saudi Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:47.160 and Salmon. Uh. You know, this is a nation he 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:50.000 promised to make a Fria. Uh. He is one that 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:52.240 has a nation with a bunch of human rights abuses, 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:57.040 obviously the killing of a Washington Post columnists Jamal kaogi Um. 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:59.439 And so this whole trip, you know, the big thing 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.640 was oil. I've talked to lawmakers who say that the 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:03.840 thing that Blinden needs to do is really bring up 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:06.640 Christ down. And at this point, it just it remains 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:09.240 to be seen exactly what's going to be happening with 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:12.360 that and if production will be increased, and it really 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:15.240 goes into the debate that's happening on Capitol Hill right 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:18.679 now over how to deal with inflation and the ongoing 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:23.080 back and forth within the Democratic Party of specifically Senator 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:27.320 Joe Mansion blocking that economic package, and now looks like 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:31.000 even the Chips Bill is gonna get dialed back. Yeah, 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:33.920 there's a couple different balls in the air, and you're right, Ethan, 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:36.160 a lot of this has to do with inflation and 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:39.680 concerns over it. Mansion is worried that to put another 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:43.439 big financial package out there, even one that is Democrats, 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:46.800 as Democrats point out, would be completely paid for, would 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:50.680 be super problematic for the economy and for inflation. And 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:54.200 so that one, that reconciliation package is on hold. There's 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:58.480 also now looking at the package for US China competitiveness, 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:02.720 making the US more compati editive, boosting domestic manufactory. But 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:05.680 the and Senate will vote on a version of the 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.280 Death Bill this week, but it's going to be way 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:11.840 slimmed down what we were initially expecting. Lawmakers were negotiating 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:14.959 a much wider package. This one's mostly going to focus 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:18.560 on fifty two billion dollars in Grandson incentives to help 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:22.760 increase semiconductors and help more of those semiconductor companies look 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:24.920 at the US as a place where they can build 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:28.000 their factories and produce their products. Thanks for this, Emily, 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:31.000 Bloomberg Government reporter Emily Wilkins, and you can read more 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:34.080 at Bloomberg dot com or on the Bloomberg terminal. Listen 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:38.040 to Bloomberg Radio in Washington Bloomberg and one oh five 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:41.240 point seven FM HD two. We continue to watch shares 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:45.160 of Bank of America as the bank has reported earnings. 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.480 The earnings per share came in slightly below estimates, along 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:53.120 with overall revenue b a C down one point one percent. 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:56.880 In the pre market, SMP futures are higher by thirty 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:00.800 seven points, staff futures up two seventy four, nastack futures 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:03.520 on the rise by one forty points. Much more to 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:06.760 come on Bloomberg Surveillance. So Tom Keene, Jonathan Faroe, and 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:12.040 Lisa Abramowitz for Karen Moscow. I'm Nathan Hagar. This is 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:20.240 Bloomberg Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:23.600 day at Bloomberg dot com. The Bloomberg Business Atland at 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:33.319 Bloomberg Quick Tape is a Bloomberg Business blash, And I'm 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:37.199 Karen Moscow. US Stock Index futures on the rise this 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:39.880 morning by the dollar weekends, is investors scale back bets 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.360 and how aggressively the Federal reserve a titan policy easing 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:46.400 recession fears. We check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.240 the trading day. On bloomberg S ANDP Future is up 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:51.800 thirty eight points, DAL futures up two hundred seventy three 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.880 and nasday futures of one forty one. The decks in 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:58.120 Germany is up one point three percent. Ten year treasury 0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:00.880 down ten thirty seconds. You'll two point five percent. They 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:03.400 yield on a two year three point one four percent. 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:06.240 Nivex screwed oil is up one point eight percent of 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:08.960 a dollar seventy six and ninety nine thirty five cents 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.720 of barrel comex schooled up eight ten percent or thirteen 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:15.560 dollars seventy cents is seventeen seventeen thirty announced. The Euro 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.320 one point zero one five nine against the dollar, British 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.080 pound one point four and the Yan is at one 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:24.080 thirty eight point to seven, and Big coin is up 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:27.040 more than six percent at twenty two thousand, two hundred 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.439 and thirty dollars. Coleman Sachs Bank of America among company's 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.760 scheduled to report earnings today. And that's a Bloomberg Business Flash. 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:35.960 Now here's John Tucker with more on what's going on 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:39.040 around the world. John and Karen. Three people killed at 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:42.480 a mall in Greenwood, Indiana, shooting that ended when an 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.560 armed man fatally shot the gunman. A new report finds 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:49.079 egregiously poor decision making on the part of law enforcement 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.920 responding to the mass shooting at the All the Elementary 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:55.959 School of Texas, and President Vladimir Zelinski removing his national 0:12:56.040 --> 0:13:00.760 security head and Ukraine's top prosecutor alleging the some employees 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:05.040 collaborated with RUNCH and intelligence. Sports Camp Smith wins Golf's 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.280 British Open. The Yanks beat the Red Sox thirteen to twelve. 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:10.720 Mets lose to the Cubs three to two. The Nationals 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:13.120 beat the Brave seven to three. The Oils lose to 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:16.120 the Raise seven to five, The beat the Astros four 0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:18.800 to three. Global news twenty four hours a day on 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:21.760 air and on Bloomberg Quickday Power by more than twenty 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.680 seven hundred journalists and analysts. It more than one hundred 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:29.240 and twenty countries. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg, Nathan John. 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.560 Thank you. It is six nineteen on Wall Street Live 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:35.480 from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:37.520 as we get ready to kick off another trading week. 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:40.160 We are joined this morning by Bloomberg television anchor and 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.199 markets correspondent Danny Burger looking at green on the screen 0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:48.240 this morning after the late week rally to end last week. 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:51.800 But we've got some notes out this morning, Danny that 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:55.920 might make investors wonder whether this is another bear market rally. Yeah. 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.440 I think that's certainly a big part of this conversation. 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.720 You could even say, okay, things it filed awful off 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:06.600 the Fed. Perhaps, Um, the peak of rate rises is 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:08.360 soon going to be here. If we're not going a 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:11.719 hundred basis points, we're just going. Yeah. I think the 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.959 note which you're you're probably trying to bait me into covering, 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.040 which I am more than happy to be just is 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:22.120 an interesting one. It's close and right the permit perma 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:25.800 bear here saying that look, even um, what we're seeing 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:29.680 right now is likely, yes, just at a bear market rally. 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:32.080 Um that the bear market it's not over. And they 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.280 say even if we avoid a recession, we're still likely 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:37.560 to see more stock losses. But they do say the 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:41.440 odds of a recession arising. Yeah. Interesting to see that 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:44.920 once again from as you term him, probably quite rightly 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:49.200 Perma Bear Mike Wilson, raising the odds of a recession, 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.960 even as it seems as though markets, at least for 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.520 this morning or the last couple of days, are baking 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.920 in the possibility that we're not going to see quite 0:14:57.040 --> 0:15:01.520 as big rate hikes as investors might thought. And maybe 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.120 that brings in the possibility, or at least brings back 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:07.120 into the conversation the idea of a soft landing. Yeah. 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:08.640 I think a big part of it is we just 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:11.280 went too far in pricing what the set is going 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.120 to do. Because what we're pricing in for this month's 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.400 RAAK decision, it's certainly still a jumbo hike. It's uh 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:21.160 seventy nine basis points on the money market pricing. Of course, 0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:23.440 they don't move in those intervals, so that implies that 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.080 most bets are are centered around seventy five, which again 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:29.480 historically a very very large hike. But I do think 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.840 markets just went too far and saying perhaps it will 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:36.200 be one percent um. Perhaps it's going to be bigger. 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:38.080 So what we've seen these past couple of days is 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:41.680 markets having to take a step back saying, Okay, yes, 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:46.080 the set is raising rates, but inflation perhaps isn't as pernicious, 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.480 Not that it won't be pernicious, but but we just 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:50.920 went too far. And I really think that that's what 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:54.600 we've been seeing on Friday and today. You have to wonder, Danny, 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:58.960 whether we're going to see more concern about inflation bleed 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:01.760 back into the mark it as we get through more 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:04.800 of earning season. We're wrapping up banks today, We're going 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.560 to hear from some big tech names later this week. 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:13.200 That's going to make things pretty interesting. Yes, it definitely will, 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:16.080 especially considering we've heard a lot of tech names talk 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:20.480 about flowing hiring. Um be it. Microsoft too says that 0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:22.240 you know this is this is normal for them. It's 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:26.120 not because they're global concerns. But Google Alphabet, their parent company, 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:30.160 has also slowed hiring as well. Um and yeah, is 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:33.120 the global slow down going to hurt tech? This is 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:36.520 usually a sector that's perhaps a bit more resilient. But 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:39.760 if you're an ad spending business, if that's if that's 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:43.840 what you're dependent on then yeah, certainly slower growth among 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:46.840 corporates could could definitely come to bite. Are we looking 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:51.160 for more earnings downgrades as we get further into the season. 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:53.680 Is that something that the analysts you talk to our 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:57.680 watching out for. Definitely, we have started to see some 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:01.880 downgrades that the expectations are are still pretty elevated, but 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:05.080 as we get closer to more earnings reports, it is 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:08.680 net downgrades instead of net upgrades. UM Bank of America, 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.560 though my Cartinet over there does believe that it's still 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:14.760 despite some of the downgrades we've seen, earnings are going 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:16.800 to disappoint and he says that's going to be the 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.960 thing that drives the capitulation in this market. That we 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:22.240 haven't totally seen it, despite the fact we've entered a 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:24.720 bear market, but this earning season will be the thing 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.880 that causes it if we need disappointments in our last 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:32.639 minute here, Danny, as we enter the FED blackout period, here, 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.520 I gotta ask what you make of all the pretty 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:40.520 significant swings we've seen in the market just based on 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:45.120 pieces of economic data coming out one after the other. 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:47.440 It's like if you get a big inflation print, things 0:17:47.440 --> 0:17:50.400 go down big time. We got retail sales last week 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.000 and things went up big time. I think this is 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:56.119 so fascinating because we are trading on pieces of data. 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.080 I mean, look, we've always traded on pieces of data, 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:00.560 but but we're having so many people own so much 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.280 volatility around pieces of data that we never did before. 0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:07.000 UM trading on a University of Michigan sentiment survey, I mean, 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:09.840 that's pretty strange, but yeah, but but you kind of 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:12.119 have to do it. The J Powell last time he 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:15.000 raised rates seventy five basis points, so I did. That 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:17.520 is one of the inputs UM. And yet again on 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:21.760 Friday's University of Michigan survey, people backed off around rate 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:24.399 heights because it wasn't just the retail sales data. It 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:27.240 was inflation expectations that came in. So I think it's 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:29.640 just every single piece of data is not just important 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:32.360 for the market, it's important for the said. Hence why 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:35.320 all the volatility. Thanks for this, Dandy, great having you 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:38.800 on with us. Dandy Burger Markets correspondent, Bloomberg TV anchor 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:41.960 with us here this morning on Bloomberg Radio, looking ahead 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:45.800 to the market, open, futures, poise for games, SMP futures 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:47.920 up thirty nine points, staff futures up two to eighty 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.600 nine nastack futures hired by a hundred forty five points. 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:54.520 Tend your treasury down eleven thirty seconds, yield two point 0:18:54.640 --> 0:19:02.720 nine five per cent. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:05.320 eleven three oh weather cloudy today, some showers and storms 0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:08.399 developing by midday, low eighties will be your ninety mostly 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.360 sunny tomorrow and by Wednesday, mostly sunny with a high 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:21.080 right now seventy six degrees. Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.880 Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg E Living Freedom 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:29.080 to Washington, d C, Bloomberg On to Boston, Bloomberg one 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:32.240 oh six one, to San Francisco, Bloomberg N six to 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.439 the country, Sirius XM, Chad A one nine, and around 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:39.359 the globe, the Bloomberg Business APT and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. 0:19:39.400 --> 0:19:48.400 This is Bloomberg Daybreak six thirty on Wall Street. Good morning, 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.359 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. We're just about 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:53.760 three hours away from the open of US trading. Time 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:55.359 to the five things that you need to know to 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:59.960 start your Day brought to you by Interactive Brokers Investment Advisors, 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.919 which to Interactive Brokers for lowest cost global trading and 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:06.840 turnkey custody solutions, no ticket charges and no conflicts of 0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:09.840 your interests at ib kr dot com. Slash r i 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:14.040 a first Markets gear up for a slew of earnings 0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:17.359 this week. Investors are watching how business is weathering inflation 0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:20.600 and tightening from the Fed, Coleman Saxon Bank of America 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:24.080 Rapper reporting for the major banks today. Other notable names 0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:27.359 this week include Tesla and Netflix, United Airlines and IBM, 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:29.439 and the results that Karen come on the heels of 0:20:29.520 --> 0:20:33.240 June's hot CPI report. Clara Advisers Founder and managing principal 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:36.400 Ryan Bolanger says, even if they're earnings mrs, big US 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:39.880 companies are still a good place for investors. You've got 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:42.520 consumer spending still on the rise, so you've still got 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:46.280 a very attractive consumer balance sheet. Household finances are in 0:20:46.400 --> 0:20:48.760 great shape still, so that's one of the reasons why 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:52.280 we still like the domestic companies more than the international counterparts. 0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:54.960 Ryan Bolanger with Clara Advisor says, we're still likely to 0:20:54.960 --> 0:20:58.040 see a prolonged period of volatility pan time. Nathan went 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:00.400 to Wall Street's biggest bearer, says us to box are 0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:03.119 likely to face more declines as even if the economy 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:06.359 manages to avoid a recession. Mark and Stanley strateg just 0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:09.240 Mike Wilson says he expects the bear market to continue. 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:12.280 He also sees the odds of a recession continuing to rise. 0:21:12.600 --> 0:21:15.080 Turning into commodities now, Karen oil is on the rise 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:18.280 after last week's nearly seven percent drop. It follows President 0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:21.000 Biden's landmark visit to the Middle East that wrapped up 0:21:21.040 --> 0:21:23.960 without a firm commitment from Saudi Arabia to boost Crewe supplies. 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:26.600 Checking prices now name excrudes up two percent or a 0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:29.720 dollar ninety four nine fifty two cents of barrel. Brent 0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:31.960 is hired by two point three percent to a hundred 0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:35.119 three dollars forty nine cents. Well, we moved to Italy now, Nathan, 0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:38.000 we're Prime Minister Mario Draggy is under mounting pressure to 0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:42.000 reverse his pledge to resign. Draggy appears determined to leave office, 0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:45.280 but Summer pushing for him to stay. Bloomberg's tomaso Ebb 0:21:45.320 --> 0:21:48.199 Heart has more from Milan If Druggy resigned, then he 0:21:48.240 --> 0:21:51.240