WEBVTT - The Wild West of Cryptocurrencies

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Charle Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all furnessing the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analysts in more than one hundred and twenty countries. You

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show

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<v Speaker 1>at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch

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<v Speaker 1>us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>COVID cases topping one hundred sixty nine million, deaths exceeding

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<v Speaker 1>three point five million, more than one point seven eight

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<v Speaker 1>billion doses of the vaccine have been given, and here

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<v Speaker 1>closer to home, at least from me New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>Past a milestone in the outbreaks easing as the seven

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<v Speaker 1>day average for positive tests fell below one percent for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time this year. Let's get into all that

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<v Speaker 1>and more with Dr Ian lust Bader, clinical professor of

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<v Speaker 1>medicine at n y U Lango Medical Center. He joins

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<v Speaker 1>US now on the phone from Long Island. Dr LUs Beder,

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<v Speaker 1>good to talk to you today. How are you, tim

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<v Speaker 1>Always a pleasure, Happy Friday, doing very well, Happy Friday.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering how you're seeing this play out in in

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<v Speaker 1>your own experience at n y U. H the seven

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<v Speaker 1>day average for positive tests falling below one percent for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time this year. Definitely a dramatic reduction and hospitalizations.

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<v Speaker 1>There's still a few uh COVID bids UH at n

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<v Speaker 1>y U, so it's not zero, but as you say,

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<v Speaker 1>it's below one percent, and certainly the number of new

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<v Speaker 1>cases and cases that need to be hospitalized are down dramatically,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, we're seeing that in the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>which just encouraging. Cases coming down, and we have obviously

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<v Speaker 1>a number of people who've who've had it and who've

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<v Speaker 1>been immunized, so we're approaching herd immunity, you know, around

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<v Speaker 1>the world. Definitely, I don't think that this is over

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<v Speaker 1>yet by any stretch of the imagination. Well, I'm wondering

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<v Speaker 1>if you think it will will get to the point

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<v Speaker 1>that that the President has made a goal of US

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<v Speaker 1>adults having one shot by the fourth of July, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're just over six at this point. That's a that's

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<v Speaker 1>a goal that he's put out. Are we going to

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<v Speaker 1>make it? You know? I hope so. I think so.

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<v Speaker 1>We still have a small um group, but a strong

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<v Speaker 1>group a vaccine hesitant people who you know, watch videos

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube and on the internet and uh and or

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<v Speaker 1>our hesitant based on on a variety of videos and

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<v Speaker 1>other information they get. You know, we do try and

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<v Speaker 1>reassure people. Nothing is a pent for sure. Um, I

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<v Speaker 1>can tell that we're certainly not going to get to

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<v Speaker 1>a p with vaccine hesitant people, but I think will

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<v Speaker 1>be in a much safer zone if we get to

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<v Speaker 1>that seventy and I think getting that by July fourth

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<v Speaker 1>is reasonable. Yes, the latest numbers from the CDC telling

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<v Speaker 1>us that of the population eighteen years of age or

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<v Speaker 1>old or have received at least one dose of the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering about how incentives can play into this. As

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<v Speaker 1>you heard me mentioned earlier in the show, California is

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<v Speaker 1>just the latest state to offer a vaccine lottery, a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and sixteen point five million dollars in prizes available.

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<v Speaker 1>This seems to be working, doesn't it. You know, it

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<v Speaker 1>is to a degree. I don't think this has been

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<v Speaker 1>done before. I'm unaware of any vaccine incentives that we've

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<v Speaker 1>done in the recent past that I can think of.

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<v Speaker 1>But whether it's a New York state with UM free

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<v Speaker 1>uh university, state university or city university tuition, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in in a raffle um or prize money, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it is a public health crisis, and I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think it makes sense to do it. It's certainly going

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<v Speaker 1>to capture many I don't know if all the vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>hesitant people, but I think as long as it's um

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<v Speaker 1>a positive step forward, I I support it. I'm one

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<v Speaker 1>of the tens of million of people in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>You This weekend we'll be traveling to visit family, and

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<v Speaker 1>it will be the first time that I've seen my

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<v Speaker 1>grandmother in since March of last year. She's everybody's vaccinated.

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<v Speaker 1>We're excited to all see each other. But I gotta

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<v Speaker 1>tell you, it feels like for me, because we're all vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>that that things are going to be just like they

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<v Speaker 1>were before the pandemic. And I'm not expecting us to

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<v Speaker 1>do anything differently. Are we making a mistake by doing that? No,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't. I don't think so. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>congratulations on good genes Heaven Griff. Very impressive, I must say,

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<v Speaker 1>so that's that's a positive UM. But I think the

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<v Speaker 1>data it really is reassuring in terms of being with

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated UM people in groups, even if you haven't seen

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<v Speaker 1>them for a while. I think it is safe. Ideally,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if you can sit outside, if the weather

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<v Speaker 1>is nice, if you can, you know, still keep that

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<v Speaker 1>six ft apart, maybe a gentle hug and then and

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<v Speaker 1>then step back a little bit, you know, just to

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<v Speaker 1>be safe. But I think the data is very clear that, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>staying together with that vascinated groups indoors or outdoors, as

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<v Speaker 1>the CDC said, is certainly fine to do. And even

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<v Speaker 1>though we occasionally find a little bit of virus in

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<v Speaker 1>the naves of parents, you know, with swabs like the Yankees,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that we've talked about, I think it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be very safe. And I think the emotional positivity

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<v Speaker 1>of being with family, for your ninety eight year old

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<v Speaker 1>grandmother to see her grandkids and family, has such a

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<v Speaker 1>positive energy that I think that that far outweighs the

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<v Speaker 1>very small risk of of getting an infection. Yeah, we're

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<v Speaker 1>certainly excited about it our Our two year old gets

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<v Speaker 1>to see her for the first time, you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>more than half his life. Um, Dr les Bader, if

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<v Speaker 1>we were doing this interview six seven months ago, we'd

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<v Speaker 1>be talking about the potential spike in cases following Thanksgiving

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<v Speaker 1>or following Christmas. Just in the last minute that we have,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll come back with you. Do you expect to

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<v Speaker 1>see a similar spike in cases because they are down dramatically,

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<v Speaker 1>but after this holiday weekend. I don't think we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to see as big as spike because of the widespread vaccinations.

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<v Speaker 1>I think in the US we're on a good trend. Globally,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not so sure at all that this is over.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're having under reporting of many cases from

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<v Speaker 1>many countries, but I think we're good in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think we're going to see a meaningful spike

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<v Speaker 1>after the holiday weekend, but certainly globally it is by

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<v Speaker 1>no means over. Well, let's get right back to it

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<v Speaker 1>with Dr Ian LUs beda clinical clinical professor of medicine.

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<v Speaker 1>Excuse me, Dr LUs Better at n y U Landgo

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<v Speaker 1>Medical Center joining us on the phone from Long Island.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr LUs Better, I want to get to the idea

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID long haulers. It's something that we started to

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<v Speaker 1>hear about about a year ago. And those folks you've

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<v Speaker 1>had lingering COVID symptoms, what do we know about how

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<v Speaker 1>they can be treated now? Well, it's definitely a challenge.

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<v Speaker 1>We are seeing a subset of patients who really have

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<v Speaker 1>the these ongoing symptoms, ongoing chest paint, pok shortness of breath,

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<v Speaker 1>brain fog um, heart issues. And we do know the

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<v Speaker 1>virus effects every organ. In other words, we see uh, myocarditis,

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<v Speaker 1>cardiac inflammation, kidney certainly long you know, obviously we've had

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<v Speaker 1>Why most people resolve almost too normal and why other

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<v Speaker 1>people have these ongoing symptoms isn't completely clear. There are

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<v Speaker 1>a number of clinics and why you recently has a

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<v Speaker 1>new clinic for long bawlers or post COVID syndrome. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not as if we have a magic pill, but we

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<v Speaker 1>certainly are really trying to learn about this and and

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<v Speaker 1>follow those patients kind of study the patient's try a

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<v Speaker 1>variety of different approaches. There's some evidence that some of

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<v Speaker 1>those patients um after they get vaccinated, even though they've

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<v Speaker 1>had COVID obviously and they have long haawl of syndrome

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<v Speaker 1>post COVID syndrome. If you give them a vaccine, a

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<v Speaker 1>subset of those do get better. So that's still another

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<v Speaker 1>uh motivation for people even if they've had it, to

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<v Speaker 1>get the vaccine. But there's definitely an ongoing set. I've

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<v Speaker 1>had patients for a year who have just felt terribly

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<v Speaker 1>even though they have the antibodies, and even though they've

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<v Speaker 1>gone through it and their family has gone through it

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<v Speaker 1>and the family feels better, they do not very hard

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<v Speaker 1>to tease out exactly what that is or the magic

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<v Speaker 1>formula to make them better. Yeah, I mean, I'm glad

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned the anecdotal evidence that we had seen earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this year about those who had been vaccinated the symptoms

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<v Speaker 1>actually getting better. Do we have anything beyond anecdotal at

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<v Speaker 1>this point? There are no really formal studies. All of

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<v Speaker 1>those studies are really being done, and there are a

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<v Speaker 1>number of clinics that are being followed. And typically it's

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<v Speaker 1>a multi specialty approach. In other words, will have pullman

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<v Speaker 1>pulmonologists involved, lung specialists and neurologists involved. Uh. It's really

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<v Speaker 1>a number of different specialties and they're really analyzed. We

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<v Speaker 1>try a number of approaches for symptomatic treatment and anti

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<v Speaker 1>viral treatment and a host of different things, but there

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<v Speaker 1>is not a consensus. Certainly, it would be interesting to

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<v Speaker 1>look at some things like ivermectin that that has been

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<v Speaker 1>looked at for prevention and treatment. I think we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to have to explore some unusual or untried approaches since

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<v Speaker 1>this is basically new and we're really learning trying to

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<v Speaker 1>learn how to deal with it as best as can be. Fortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a small group of patients, but they are very intractable.

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<v Speaker 1>Many are miserable, and many have difficulty really returning to work. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the people who have been affected by it. I

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<v Speaker 1>really feel for them. Dr Lustbader. I want to end

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<v Speaker 1>just talking about the origins of the coronavirus, because over

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend there was a report in the Wall Street

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<v Speaker 1>Journal that said three researchers from the WU Hunt Institute

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<v Speaker 1>of Virology in China, we're sick enough all the way

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<v Speaker 1>back in November of tw nineteen that they went to

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<v Speaker 1>the hospital. The Wall Street Journal sites an undisclosed US

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<v Speaker 1>intelligence report, And I'm wondering if you think that we

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<v Speaker 1>are ever going to know from the perspective of this

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<v Speaker 1>medical community, the scientific community where the virus came from.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's really important to to do our best

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<v Speaker 1>to find out. I think there's mounting evidence that it

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<v Speaker 1>really was a lab leak. You do think, um, I do.

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<v Speaker 1>I think transparency in sciences and medicine is what it's

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<v Speaker 1>all about. You know, we and that we go to

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<v Speaker 1>other hospitals, We read papers, labs are visited to be

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<v Speaker 1>reviewed and see what if whatever findings or scientific breakthroughs

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<v Speaker 1>are found. It's a very open system, at least in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States, and I think when you're prevented from

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<v Speaker 1>doing that, it's very suspicious. And and Rand Paul Senator

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<v Speaker 1>Paul actually raised some good points about no intervening animal

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<v Speaker 1>species being found. And I think, um, we really trust

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<v Speaker 1>sign in test and I think Dr Faucium might have

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<v Speaker 1>been too trusting in this case. We really need to

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<v Speaker 1>keep a lot of research domestically uh and and carefully

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<v Speaker 1>monitored because all of the lamps in the United States

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<v Speaker 1>are reviewed by by central agencies to prevent this sort

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<v Speaker 1>of thing. Well, hopefully we get to a point where

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<v Speaker 1>we actually can determine the origins. Dr LUs Bader, it's

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<v Speaker 1>always great to chat with you have a great weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for joining us. That's Dr Ian

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<v Speaker 1>lust Better, clinical professor of Medicine at n y U

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<v Speaker 1>Langos Medical Center. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well.

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<v Speaker 1>In April, the House of Representatives agreed to discuss the

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<v Speaker 1>possibility of establishing a commission to study reparations. It happened

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<v Speaker 1>more than three decades after the proposal was first introduced.

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden called the resolution a good idea, but full

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<v Speaker 1>reparations from the federal government probably won't becoming anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 1>That said, the city of Evanston, Illinois, is already getting started.

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<v Speaker 1>Joining us today with an article in it a feature

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<v Speaker 1>in the current issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine, available

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<v Speaker 1>on newsstands and at Bloomberg dot com. Slash business Week

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<v Speaker 1>is Joel Weber, editor at Bloomberg News and Susan Burfield,

0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:15.280
<v Speaker 1>Projects and Investigations reporter at Bloomberg Business Week. They join

0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:20.439
<v Speaker 1>us from Brooklyn. Joel Um, I'm I'm wondering about this

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<v Speaker 1>because reparations are at least how Evanston is defining reparations

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<v Speaker 1>are a lot more complicated than just giving people money,

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<v Speaker 1>that's right. And and I just thought this story, um

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<v Speaker 1>that Susan and her colleague, our colleague Jordan Holman worked

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<v Speaker 1>on for the magazine was amazing and perfectly timed for

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<v Speaker 1>for this week and the events of this week. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>here we are a year after George Floyd's murder um

0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.520
<v Speaker 1>and and I think the reparation story is one that

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:54.080
<v Speaker 1>it has been, you know, one of the most interesting

0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:58.160
<v Speaker 1>to watch. Evanston is Illinois is particularly interesting because this

0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:01.160
<v Speaker 1>is the first US city to really promise that that

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.920
<v Speaker 1>they would take this stuff on. And and boy that's

0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:06.280
<v Speaker 1>not easy. It turns out even even the the word

0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:10.120
<v Speaker 1>reparations can be controversial. So so Susan, can you can

0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:14.200
<v Speaker 1>you help us understand what Evanston is going through and

0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 1>where it might go from here? Yeah? Sure. So, you know,

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.240
<v Speaker 1>as you said, there's some kind of two efforts underway

0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.800
<v Speaker 1>throughout the country. There's an effort at the national level,

0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:31.040
<v Speaker 1>at least to begin talking about a federal reparations program

0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 1>that would probably come to trillions of dollars um for

0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:39.080
<v Speaker 1>every eligible African American. And then there are cities like

0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:44.000
<v Speaker 1>Evanston that are looking at what UM the local cases

0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 1>for reparations for you know, injustice discrimination against black residents

0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:53.480
<v Speaker 1>that the cities themselves are responsible for and that they

0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:58.520
<v Speaker 1>can pay within their budget. So that's usually programs of

0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.200
<v Speaker 1>millions of dollars in the case of Evanston ten million

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:05.600
<v Speaker 1>dollars and Susan they're doing this through the lens of

0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:11.000
<v Speaker 1>real estate. Explain why that is. Yeah, so you know,

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>for a city like Evanston, UM, it's not going to

0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:20.400
<v Speaker 1>attempt UM to make restitution for something as huge as

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the years of slavery. But what the city wants to

0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:30.120
<v Speaker 1>take responsibility for and is holding itself account accountable for,

0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:35.280
<v Speaker 1>is for housing discrimination UM that black residents tastin Evanston

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:39.359
<v Speaker 1>for several decades. UM that contributes, as we know everywhere

0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 1>to UM a racial income gap of almost seven times

0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.480
<v Speaker 1>between black and white families. And you know, in Evanston, UM,

0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty well documented the ways in which black residents

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.000
<v Speaker 1>UM at one point lived all over the city and

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.760
<v Speaker 1>then over the course of about two decades, we're all

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:02.160
<v Speaker 1>steered towards one neighborhood in Evanston now known as the

0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>Fifth Ward and Susan can you tell us more specifically

0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.440
<v Speaker 1>about Evanston because the story and story that you write,

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.200
<v Speaker 1>and you should also add that this is um episode

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:18.080
<v Speaker 1>of the Paycheck podcast as well, so there's a whole

0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.840
<v Speaker 1>podcast version of this same story. UM. I'd just like

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.240
<v Speaker 1>to understand, like you know, rewind the clock because this

0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 1>goes back actually decades in Evanston. What what happened? Yeah?

0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:34.400
<v Speaker 1>So you know, um, Evanston can document kind of the

0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 1>first arrival of black residents to the late UM eighteen

0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:42.600
<v Speaker 1>fifties and sixties. Uh. And over the years, you know,

0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:47.360
<v Speaker 1>there were increased number of black residents, especially the Great

0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Migration of the nineteen twenties. And as more black residents

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:59.080
<v Speaker 1>settled in Evanston. Uh, there began kind of official and

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 1>unofficial codes and restrictions on where they could live. And

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:09.440
<v Speaker 1>then there came redlining, which was a national policy but

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.480
<v Speaker 1>also took place in Evanston. UM. That further made it

0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:17.200
<v Speaker 1>difficult for black residents who now we're all living in

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:21.800
<v Speaker 1>this one fairly concentrated area, um to get a fair

0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 1>mortgage and that policy no plus under investment by the city.

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 1>The results in a neighborhood where the property values are

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:35.280
<v Speaker 1>lower than elsewhere in Evanston, the homes are worth less

0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 1>and families we're lost wealth. Um. In one of the

0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:45.000
<v Speaker 1>stories that we highlight, UM of Carlos Sutton, his home,

0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:48.640
<v Speaker 1>his grandfather's home, was actually moved from one part of

0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 1>Evanston to the fifth ward and the home, had it

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:57.480
<v Speaker 1>been UM, remained where it was, I'm sorry, would today

0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:00.800
<v Speaker 1>be worth maybe five thousand dollars. UM. Where it is now,

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:04.520
<v Speaker 1>it's worth about a hundred and fifty thousand dollars, not

0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>even that far away from from where it was in

0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:12.560
<v Speaker 1>the nine twenties. UM, susan ten million dollars. How are

0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:15.920
<v Speaker 1>you that's the beginning? UM. How are they paying for it?

0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 1>So the money is coming from a new sales tax

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:26.880
<v Speaker 1>on UH, the sale of recreational marijuana legalized in Illinois

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:32.120
<v Speaker 1>at the start of Evanston has one dispensary and UH

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:36.160
<v Speaker 1>the city is collecting a three percent sales tax and

0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:40.240
<v Speaker 1>estimates that sales will be about a million dollars or so.

0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:43.000
<v Speaker 1>The sales tax will be about a million dollars a year,

0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:46.960
<v Speaker 1>and they've dedicated the first ten million dollars of that

0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:50.480
<v Speaker 1>to reparations. So it could be a ten year program,

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:54.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, if they raise more money through taxes UM,

0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:56.880
<v Speaker 1>sooner they'll they'll spend that, and they're trying to raise

0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:01.040
<v Speaker 1>additional funds. Susan, can you talk a little bit about, uh,

0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.359
<v Speaker 1>just the word reparations and why that's why it's getting

0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.440
<v Speaker 1>pushed back in just the last minute. We have sure

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:09.480
<v Speaker 1>so I think that you know, there's a sense among

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 1>some black rep residents that reparations should really be reserved

0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:20.480
<v Speaker 1>for the federal government efforts to make up for as

0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:24.879
<v Speaker 1>best it can compensate for and apologize for slavery and

0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:29.119
<v Speaker 1>the discrimination that followed UM, and that every black American

0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:33.240
<v Speaker 1>African Americans should be eligible, and the sense that a

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:37.240
<v Speaker 1>smaller program h such as Evanston's and especially this first

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.800
<v Speaker 1>step that just focuses on housing, is a bit too

0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:44.919
<v Speaker 1>limited to be called reparations. Susan Burfield, Projects and Investigations,

0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:48.800
<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg Business Week. It's a fantastic feature that

0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:51.880
<v Speaker 1>you wrote along with Jordan Holman also joining me now

0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 1>Joe Weber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. A big thank

0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:57.919
<v Speaker 1>you to both of you for joining us. You can

0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 1>find Susan's story featured in the new issue of Bloomberg

0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Business Week magazine. It's available on newsstands and at Bloomberg

0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:08.120
<v Speaker 1>dot com Slash business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.520
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. Well, if you've been paying any attention

0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:18.640
<v Speaker 1>to what's been happening with cryptocurrencies, you know that volatility,

0:19:18.920 --> 0:19:20.880
<v Speaker 1>at least of late, is the name of the game.

0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:24.800
<v Speaker 1>If you're keeping track right now, Bitcoin down another twells

0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:28.359
<v Speaker 1>thirty six thousand, one hundred and twenty dollars. Joining is

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:29.879
<v Speaker 1>now to help us make sense of it all is

0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:33.560
<v Speaker 1>Pat Laveki, a CEO of Oasis Pro Markets, joining us

0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:36.160
<v Speaker 1>now on the phone from Darien, Connecticut. Pat, it's great

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.359
<v Speaker 1>to have you back on a Bloomberg Business Week Radio.

0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:42.200
<v Speaker 1>How you doing doing great? Tim, thank you for inviting

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:44.399
<v Speaker 1>me back. So so take me back to just a

0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:46.560
<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks ago when we got that tweet from

0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:49.159
<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk, that first tweet that that's set off I

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.440
<v Speaker 1>think fair to say this most recent round of volatility

0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:55.439
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to cryptocurrencies, and he talked about the

0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:59.879
<v Speaker 1>energy usage and Tesla no longer accepting bitcoin for purchase

0:19:59.880 --> 0:20:03.600
<v Speaker 1>of cars. What did you think to yourself, oh boy,

0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:07.960
<v Speaker 1>to start with, and then um, that's by the way,

0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:10.959
<v Speaker 1>that's a normal reaction to an Elon Musk tweet. That's right,

0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:14.400
<v Speaker 1>that's right, we're on the same page there. Um. Look,

0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:17.200
<v Speaker 1>we're at the tip of the spear of this whole

0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:23.760
<v Speaker 1>crypto progression and in ten years digital will be ubiquitous

0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:27.120
<v Speaker 1>technologies as well as crypto in my opinion. Oh and

0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:31.680
<v Speaker 1>just in regards to before I get started diving into

0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:34.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, my views uncertain items, I just want to

0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:37.080
<v Speaker 1>share these are my views and not the views of

0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:41.679
<v Speaker 1>oasis pro markets. Okay, important distinction. Um I do I

0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.720
<v Speaker 1>do want to know about the about energy usage though,

0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:46.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is this is now front and center.

0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:49.159
<v Speaker 1>I mean you probably heard me talking with Charlie Pellett

0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:51.560
<v Speaker 1>about the illegal bitcoin mine that was found in the UK.

0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:56.119
<v Speaker 1>Iran banning bitcoin mining until September twenty two because of

0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.320
<v Speaker 1>energy usage concerns. How does cryptocurrency get to a place

0:20:59.320 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 1>where it's not assuming as much energy? Well, you know

0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:06.720
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of misconceptions about that, tim as well. Um,

0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:10.600
<v Speaker 1>there is energy usage, but I believe Cathy Wood has

0:21:10.640 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>also shared the fifty percent while fifty of the mining

0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:16.639
<v Speaker 1>activity right now is in China. Most of that is

0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:21.200
<v Speaker 1>supported by renewable and hydroelectric energy sources, just as an

0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:24.520
<v Speaker 1>f y i UM. So that's on the Bitcoin front,

0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:28.480
<v Speaker 1>on the East front, which is the second largest cryptocurrency

0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:33.359
<v Speaker 1>out there. There are major improvements coming along over the summer,

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:36.720
<v Speaker 1>which is called the Berlin Fork, and then eat layer

0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:38.720
<v Speaker 1>two by the end of the year. And just think

0:21:38.760 --> 0:21:42.080
<v Speaker 1>about it this way. Today it's a four lane highway

0:21:42.080 --> 0:21:47.359
<v Speaker 1>for Ethereum, the Ethereum blockchain at the when Layer two

0:21:47.440 --> 0:21:51.200
<v Speaker 1>is implemented. Now it's a bit controversial because it was

0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:54.439
<v Speaker 1>supposed to have been implemented a couple of years ago UM,

0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 1>but they've been going through the auditing process and improving it.

0:21:57.600 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 1>Because it's a community of basically coders who have put

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:04.520
<v Speaker 1>this all together. That four lane highway will be you know,

0:22:04.640 --> 0:22:07.680
<v Speaker 1>just as an example of forty eight lane highway. And

0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:12.719
<v Speaker 1>with that there's much less electricity usage required. Now with

0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:15.719
<v Speaker 1>Elon's comments, he came out. He did come out a

0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:19.679
<v Speaker 1>few more about a week later and stated that he

0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:23.800
<v Speaker 1>had spoken to the North American bitcoin miners and they

0:22:23.840 --> 0:22:27.399
<v Speaker 1>had committed to publishing current and planned renewable usage as

0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:30.800
<v Speaker 1>part of mining. So he started stepping back from that

0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:34.399
<v Speaker 1>comment from two weeks ago, and I'm sure between us

0:22:34.440 --> 0:22:38.120
<v Speaker 1>he didn't expect the kind of reaction that is implemented.

0:22:38.720 --> 0:22:42.720
<v Speaker 1>I want to talk touch on regulation here too. UM, specifically,

0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:46.320
<v Speaker 1>get your thoughts on what we heard from bank executives yesterday.

0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:51.880
<v Speaker 1>Earlier this week, Jamie Diamond said to members of Congress UM,

0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:55.560
<v Speaker 1>when asked about cryptocurrency, it was a buyer beware product

0:22:56.080 --> 0:22:58.520
<v Speaker 1>and it goes back to how you run a business.

0:22:58.920 --> 0:23:00.920
<v Speaker 1>He said, quote, I don't MC marijuana, but if you

0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:03.719
<v Speaker 1>make it nationally legal, I'm not going to stop our

0:23:03.760 --> 0:23:06.280
<v Speaker 1>people from banking it. What do you make of his

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:10.240
<v Speaker 1>comments around crypto Well, I I think that he you know,

0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>the view is UM, uh throughout my conversations with with

0:23:15.520 --> 0:23:19.680
<v Speaker 1>others in this particular space, that regulation is coming through

0:23:19.800 --> 0:23:24.040
<v Speaker 1>enforcement rather than you know, along the line, Skindlers asked

0:23:24.040 --> 0:23:27.560
<v Speaker 1>for a market regulator. UH. That probably won't happen this year.

0:23:27.720 --> 0:23:30.879
<v Speaker 1>Over the next couple of years, UH, it may eventually

0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:35.520
<v Speaker 1>step up, but UM in the meantime through regulation of

0:23:35.560 --> 0:23:39.240
<v Speaker 1>the u S securities lass. UM, there's this is the

0:23:39.280 --> 0:23:43.119
<v Speaker 1>wild West him and in the wild West it was

0:23:43.280 --> 0:23:46.399
<v Speaker 1>an even Wilder West a year ago, and it's you know,

0:23:46.480 --> 0:23:50.199
<v Speaker 1>a lot of important players are coming into the market.

0:23:50.320 --> 0:23:55.080
<v Speaker 1>So you've seen several major regulators from the Trump administration,

0:23:55.160 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 1>like Brian Brooks and Redfern move over to crypto exchange US. UH.

0:24:02.320 --> 0:24:07.639
<v Speaker 1>Redfern was at UM the Securities and Exchange Commission. He

0:24:07.720 --> 0:24:10.040
<v Speaker 1>ran one of the divisions there. He's now a coin base.

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 1>Brian Brooks was the acting control of the currency. He's

0:24:13.000 --> 0:24:16.280
<v Speaker 1>now at Finance. And when you see the regulators making

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:19.280
<v Speaker 1>these types of moves, I think that you know, since

0:24:19.280 --> 0:24:21.520
<v Speaker 1>they were on the inside, now they're on the outside.

0:24:21.560 --> 0:24:25.919
<v Speaker 1>They do see the opportunities here in regards to UM,

0:24:25.960 --> 0:24:29.639
<v Speaker 1>not not only obviously an opportunity for growth for themselves,

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:32.760
<v Speaker 1>but the opportunity for the United States for the markets, etcetera.

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:36.560
<v Speaker 1>But regulation does need to come. Well, are just in

0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:38.199
<v Speaker 1>the last thirty seconds that we have pat what does

0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:42.880
<v Speaker 1>that regulation look like? Uh, fantastic question. I think the

0:24:42.920 --> 0:24:46.679
<v Speaker 1>crypto exchanges are heading towards being regulated. I run a

0:24:46.720 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 1>regulated exchange for digital securities UM. Right now, there are

0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:57.199
<v Speaker 1>there's no regulation whatsoever in regards to bid as, spreads, deliveries, etcetera.

0:24:57.400 --> 0:25:01.680
<v Speaker 1>So it's buyer beware across the board and uh, once

0:25:01.760 --> 0:25:05.080
<v Speaker 1>regulation comes, you'll see this market take off. Okay, just

0:25:05.200 --> 0:25:07.639
<v Speaker 1>ten seconds left. Type of volatility that you expect to

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:10.840
<v Speaker 1>see with cryptocurrency for the remainder of the year. Okay, uh.

0:25:11.359 --> 0:25:14.800
<v Speaker 1>In the next week the Bigcoin Fair twelve thousand people

0:25:14.840 --> 0:25:21.000
<v Speaker 1>in Miami. Opportunity for bigcoin volatility. There it is Palla Veki,

0:25:21.040 --> 0:25:24.560
<v Speaker 1>a CEO at Oasis pro Markets, joining us today from Connecticut.

0:25:24.640 --> 0:25:27.400
<v Speaker 1>Have a great weekend, Pat, thanks so much for joining

0:25:27.520 --> 0:25:31.560
<v Speaker 1>us talking all about bitcoin and crypto. Bitcoin by the way,

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:43.000
<v Speaker 1>at thirty and twenty two dollars. This is Bloomberg Brother Journal. Yeaw,

0:25:43.080 --> 0:25:48.119
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, honey, please,

0:25:48.200 --> 0:25:57.399
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the right I want to drive, Just drive baby,

0:25:58.160 --> 0:26:09.560
<v Speaker 1>good questions trying. This is the drive to the close community. Thanks,

0:26:09.560 --> 0:26:13.880
<v Speaker 1>we'll try us Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, indeed it

0:26:14.040 --> 0:26:17.679
<v Speaker 1>is with just over ten minutes until the last trading

0:26:17.800 --> 0:26:21.119
<v Speaker 1>day of the month concludes. So we are looking at

0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:23.600
<v Speaker 1>gains across the board on the DAW, the S and

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:25.719
<v Speaker 1>on the NASDAC. We'll joining us now to help make

0:26:25.760 --> 0:26:28.399
<v Speaker 1>sense of it. All is John Trainer, chief investment Officer

0:26:28.680 --> 0:26:31.679
<v Speaker 1>at People's United Advisors that has nine billion dollars in

0:26:31.720 --> 0:26:35.520
<v Speaker 1>assets under management, joining us on the phone from Bridgeport, Connecticut, John,

0:26:35.520 --> 0:26:37.760
<v Speaker 1>how are you doing on this uh last Friday before

0:26:37.840 --> 0:26:40.760
<v Speaker 1>nice three day weekend, And you know, it's nice to

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:43.240
<v Speaker 1>see a nice rally in the market. So this is

0:26:43.280 --> 0:26:46.160
<v Speaker 1>a great way to end the month and start the weekend. Yeah. Well,

0:26:46.400 --> 0:26:48.159
<v Speaker 1>you know, unfortunately for us on the East Coast, it

0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:49.960
<v Speaker 1>seems like the weather is not going to be so

0:26:50.040 --> 0:26:53.760
<v Speaker 1>great this weekend, which is a little disappointing. But you

0:26:53.800 --> 0:26:56.040
<v Speaker 1>know that's neither here nor there. Let's talk markets and

0:26:56.040 --> 0:26:57.840
<v Speaker 1>and and really what you make of them right now.

0:26:57.920 --> 0:26:59.480
<v Speaker 1>So here we are at the end of the month,

0:27:00.119 --> 0:27:02.600
<v Speaker 1>the DAL higher by more than two the s and

0:27:02.680 --> 0:27:05.800
<v Speaker 1>P five hundred higher by seven tenths of one percent,

0:27:05.840 --> 0:27:08.720
<v Speaker 1>the NASDAK finishing the month looks like down at least

0:27:08.760 --> 0:27:11.480
<v Speaker 1>as of right now. About what do you make of it? All?

0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:15.720
<v Speaker 1>You know, what we're seeing is just a continuation of

0:27:15.760 --> 0:27:18.640
<v Speaker 1>the themes that we've seen all through this through this year,

0:27:18.720 --> 0:27:20.639
<v Speaker 1>sort of the give and take, the ebb and flow

0:27:20.720 --> 0:27:23.760
<v Speaker 1>between growth and value. You know, is the economy going

0:27:23.800 --> 0:27:25.520
<v Speaker 1>to be too hot or is it is it going

0:27:25.560 --> 0:27:28.960
<v Speaker 1>to be you know, a more moderate growth. We have

0:27:29.119 --> 0:27:31.560
<v Speaker 1>been in the camp that you want to and we

0:27:31.600 --> 0:27:34.800
<v Speaker 1>started doing this last year. Build your portfolio for the

0:27:34.800 --> 0:27:39.159
<v Speaker 1>economic rebounds. Start to decrease your growth emphasis, increase the

0:27:39.240 --> 0:27:42.880
<v Speaker 1>value emphasis and the portfolio because we definitely think we're

0:27:42.960 --> 0:27:46.160
<v Speaker 1>we're going to continue to see good news on the economy,

0:27:46.200 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 1>good news as as the service industries start to reopen.

0:27:51.080 --> 0:27:53.800
<v Speaker 1>So you want to position your portfolio there. And you know,

0:27:53.840 --> 0:27:56.240
<v Speaker 1>I know it's tough with the daily ebb and flow,

0:27:56.280 --> 0:27:59.520
<v Speaker 1>but keep your eyes focused on the rebounding economy and

0:27:59.600 --> 0:28:02.359
<v Speaker 1>increase used the cyclical exposure in your portfolios. But to

0:28:02.400 --> 0:28:06.480
<v Speaker 1>what extent is that priced in right now already? Well,

0:28:06.720 --> 0:28:10.320
<v Speaker 1>I think you know, with with regard to a lot

0:28:10.520 --> 0:28:13.560
<v Speaker 1>of the sort of the deeper cyclicals, you know, they've

0:28:13.600 --> 0:28:16.080
<v Speaker 1>had a nice pop. You've sort of had the bounce

0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of the stocks that were given up

0:28:18.040 --> 0:28:20.639
<v Speaker 1>for dead last year. But you know, one of the

0:28:20.640 --> 0:28:23.639
<v Speaker 1>things that we've been doing is continuing to take profits

0:28:23.720 --> 0:28:26.520
<v Speaker 1>in the big texts were now slightly underweight. We were

0:28:26.560 --> 0:28:30.719
<v Speaker 1>overweighted last year, so we're underweight. I don't think we're

0:28:30.440 --> 0:28:33.399
<v Speaker 1>we're to the end of that. I still think, you know,

0:28:33.560 --> 0:28:36.720
<v Speaker 1>there's time to to take profits in the text, So

0:28:36.760 --> 0:28:39.520
<v Speaker 1>I think some of some of this is factored in.

0:28:40.000 --> 0:28:41.960
<v Speaker 1>But when you see a lot of the frothiness in

0:28:42.000 --> 0:28:44.960
<v Speaker 1>the market, I'm not sure that a lot of investors

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:48.880
<v Speaker 1>have positioned their their portfolios for the cyclical recovery. There's

0:28:48.880 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 1>still a lot of sort of the the big tech

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:53.720
<v Speaker 1>ownership out there that I still think needs to be

0:28:53.840 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 1>rotated out of. And what do they rotate into then, specifically, well,

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:02.240
<v Speaker 1>we're buying, Well, we like the financials, so we're buying,

0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:06.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, more of the mid sized banks which are

0:29:06.200 --> 0:29:09.160
<v Speaker 1>are more focused on the rebounding economy. The money center

0:29:09.200 --> 0:29:11.080
<v Speaker 1>banks have done very well, but you want to own

0:29:11.120 --> 0:29:14.360
<v Speaker 1>more than midsize banks. And then the industrials. We like

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:16.960
<v Speaker 1>the industrials. We want to be exposed to that, and

0:29:17.400 --> 0:29:20.360
<v Speaker 1>we're buying you know, some of some of the industrials

0:29:20.360 --> 0:29:23.280
<v Speaker 1>that you know definitely did not fall that hard last year,

0:29:23.560 --> 0:29:27.120
<v Speaker 1>that have good, good cash flow growth, and we we

0:29:27.120 --> 0:29:29.120
<v Speaker 1>we want to be exposed to them. So financials and

0:29:29.200 --> 0:29:32.959
<v Speaker 1>industrials are the two areas were emphasized. Financials and industrials. Well,

0:29:33.000 --> 0:29:35.440
<v Speaker 1>let's talk a little bit about the eye word inflation

0:29:35.800 --> 0:29:38.280
<v Speaker 1>and and to what extent, do you believe like the

0:29:38.320 --> 0:29:41.120
<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve and officials there we hear over and over

0:29:41.160 --> 0:29:45.400
<v Speaker 1>again that it's transitory. Yeah, you know, And you know,

0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:47.000
<v Speaker 1>one of the things we do is we we keep

0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:48.920
<v Speaker 1>an eye on the bond market, and what the bottom

0:29:48.920 --> 0:29:50.680
<v Speaker 1>market is telling you is that they believe the Fed.

0:29:51.080 --> 0:29:52.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, I mean, look at the look at the

0:29:52.920 --> 0:29:56.840
<v Speaker 1>inflation news that we've had recently here, um, and the

0:29:56.880 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 1>bond market is really not reacting. So investor are giving

0:30:00.720 --> 0:30:03.680
<v Speaker 1>the Fed the benefit of the doubt. Um. You know.

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:05.800
<v Speaker 1>One of the things that we do know though, is

0:30:06.160 --> 0:30:08.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're probably going to get some surprises. We

0:30:08.560 --> 0:30:11.560
<v Speaker 1>think we will get some surprises on the upside, meaning

0:30:11.600 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna shock the market and they'll think the FED

0:30:13.880 --> 0:30:17.840
<v Speaker 1>is behind the curve. Generally, when that happens, you're the

0:30:18.000 --> 0:30:20.720
<v Speaker 1>value companies tend to do better in that kind of

0:30:20.720 --> 0:30:24.320
<v Speaker 1>an environment. So again there's another reason why you you

0:30:24.400 --> 0:30:26.160
<v Speaker 1>probably don't want to own a lot of the higher

0:30:26.240 --> 0:30:29.160
<v Speaker 1>pe stocks. You want to you know, have cushing your

0:30:29.160 --> 0:30:32.480
<v Speaker 1>portfolio with with some of the value value stocks. But

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:35.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, we we don't think we don't think inflation

0:30:35.280 --> 0:30:37.120
<v Speaker 1>is going to get out of control, but we think

0:30:37.120 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 1>we're going to get some scares coming forward and it's

0:30:39.840 --> 0:30:41.960
<v Speaker 1>gonna it's gonna shake the market a little bit. Maybe

0:30:42.000 --> 0:30:43.880
<v Speaker 1>we'll see it in the bodom market. Well, what's your data,

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:46.600
<v Speaker 1>what's the data that that you're watching about that? Um?

0:30:47.560 --> 0:30:51.120
<v Speaker 1>It's it's is it more? Is wage growth more important?

0:30:51.160 --> 0:30:52.719
<v Speaker 1>There is that where you're keeping an eye on. When

0:30:52.760 --> 0:30:55.080
<v Speaker 1>it comes to you hit the you hit the nail

0:30:55.080 --> 0:30:58.000
<v Speaker 1>on the head, you know, I know, you know, our

0:30:58.040 --> 0:31:01.360
<v Speaker 1>our economic team keeps it very close on commodity inflation,

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:04.880
<v Speaker 1>but inflation that we're we're most focused on. And again

0:31:04.880 --> 0:31:07.760
<v Speaker 1>we're going to get the employment numbers next week, so

0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:10.360
<v Speaker 1>we're going to get some fresh data. But the wage

0:31:10.400 --> 0:31:15.040
<v Speaker 1>inflation data is really what we're keeping our our eye on. Um.

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:19.360
<v Speaker 1>You know, we've seen tremendous increases UH in uh increasing

0:31:19.400 --> 0:31:22.120
<v Speaker 1>the minimum wage. A lot of employers, a lot of

0:31:22.160 --> 0:31:26.640
<v Speaker 1>local employers are struggling to hire people that wage inflation.

0:31:26.720 --> 0:31:29.000
<v Speaker 1>That if we see that start to pick up, that

0:31:29.120 --> 0:31:31.840
<v Speaker 1>would tell us, boy of boy, maybe we are getting

0:31:32.480 --> 0:31:35.680
<v Speaker 1>some more sustainable inflation here, and that would really spook

0:31:35.720 --> 0:31:37.880
<v Speaker 1>the market. So you hit a nail the head. Wage

0:31:37.920 --> 0:31:41.440
<v Speaker 1>inflation much more so than commodity inflation is important to us.

0:31:41.760 --> 0:31:45.120
<v Speaker 1>So if if if wage inflation is most important, what

0:31:45.160 --> 0:31:48.080
<v Speaker 1>happens if if you'd start to see significant wage inflation,

0:31:48.120 --> 0:31:51.480
<v Speaker 1>what do you do to your portfolio? You know, then

0:31:51.560 --> 0:31:54.360
<v Speaker 1>we start to get a little bit more defensive, because

0:31:54.400 --> 0:31:58.040
<v Speaker 1>then you know, again, you know, they said policy acts

0:31:58.040 --> 0:32:02.960
<v Speaker 1>with a lag, and if the FED starts to get scooped,

0:32:03.080 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 1>and if the if investors start to think the Fed

0:32:05.920 --> 0:32:08.640
<v Speaker 1>is behind the curve, again they're giving the Fed the

0:32:08.680 --> 0:32:11.520
<v Speaker 1>benefit of the doubt. Now if they believe the FIT

0:32:11.680 --> 0:32:14.760
<v Speaker 1>is behind the curve, we certainly think we're going to

0:32:14.840 --> 0:32:19.400
<v Speaker 1>see intertrates higher. So our portfolios right now, we're short duration,

0:32:19.480 --> 0:32:23.120
<v Speaker 1>we're short the index um. But you know, a concern

0:32:23.200 --> 0:32:25.760
<v Speaker 1>that we've got would be with the overall market. So

0:32:25.880 --> 0:32:27.760
<v Speaker 1>I think you could see a little bit of a

0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:31.280
<v Speaker 1>pullback if confidence in the FED gets shaken, then I

0:32:31.320 --> 0:32:33.880
<v Speaker 1>think you'd see a pullback in the financial markets across

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:36.120
<v Speaker 1>the board. And that would be something that number one

0:32:36.160 --> 0:32:38.280
<v Speaker 1>we don't think is going to happen just yet, but

0:32:38.360 --> 0:32:41.480
<v Speaker 1>we'd have to make some adjustments to portfolios. Hey, John,

0:32:41.520 --> 0:32:45.880
<v Speaker 1>I think one thing that it's surprising to me is

0:32:45.920 --> 0:32:49.600
<v Speaker 1>that time flies and that the next jobs report is

0:32:49.640 --> 0:32:52.240
<v Speaker 1>already coming next week, because it does feel like we

0:32:52.240 --> 0:32:54.680
<v Speaker 1>we just had that two D and sixties six thousand

0:32:54.800 --> 0:32:57.920
<v Speaker 1>number that was such a disappointment against what economists expected

0:32:57.960 --> 0:33:01.320
<v Speaker 1>of a million and the most recent court. Um, what

0:33:01.400 --> 0:33:03.640
<v Speaker 1>are your expectations for next week? And do you think

0:33:03.720 --> 0:33:05.560
<v Speaker 1>that given that we are still not out of this

0:33:05.600 --> 0:33:08.360
<v Speaker 1>pandemic and given that kids are not back in school

0:33:08.480 --> 0:33:13.800
<v Speaker 1>full time, we are going to see another disappointment. No, actually,

0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:17.880
<v Speaker 1>we actually think you're going to see the unemployment rate drop.

0:33:18.320 --> 0:33:21.160
<v Speaker 1>You know, our forecast is to get down to five

0:33:21.160 --> 0:33:23.440
<v Speaker 1>point nine percent, So we actually think it's going to

0:33:23.480 --> 0:33:25.680
<v Speaker 1>be a good number. I know a lot of people

0:33:25.680 --> 0:33:28.360
<v Speaker 1>were very surprised last month and it was a relatively

0:33:28.440 --> 0:33:31.560
<v Speaker 1>weak number. We think that's going to change. Uh, you know,

0:33:31.680 --> 0:33:34.240
<v Speaker 1>just just from anecdotally what we're seeing on the on

0:33:34.280 --> 0:33:37.240
<v Speaker 1>the on the small business side. Um, we think you're

0:33:37.240 --> 0:33:40.040
<v Speaker 1>going to start to see the the rehiring. And really

0:33:40.160 --> 0:33:42.760
<v Speaker 1>it's that rehiring in the you know, the waiters and

0:33:42.840 --> 0:33:47.120
<v Speaker 1>waitresses and the lower wage jobs. That's really what the

0:33:47.160 --> 0:33:49.680
<v Speaker 1>FED is looking for. So we think the FED is

0:33:49.720 --> 0:33:52.200
<v Speaker 1>going to see some rehiring next week, which would be

0:33:52.280 --> 0:33:55.840
<v Speaker 1>encouraging and we'll see what how that impacts their their

0:33:55.920 --> 0:33:58.560
<v Speaker 1>tapering conversations. So, John, just in the twenty seconds that

0:33:58.600 --> 0:34:01.400
<v Speaker 1>we have left, does that change how you're thinking about

0:34:01.400 --> 0:34:04.320
<v Speaker 1>potential wage growth? If if the job's report does look good,

0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:08.520
<v Speaker 1>if if it if it looks good, and you know,

0:34:08.560 --> 0:34:11.000
<v Speaker 1>again we're hoping it's a good number. We're hoping that

0:34:11.200 --> 0:34:14.360
<v Speaker 1>we see rehiring and the lower rage areas. You know,

0:34:14.440 --> 0:34:16.759
<v Speaker 1>one month is not going to shake us, but that's

0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:19.919
<v Speaker 1>really what we want to see, rehnoring, and we're gonna

0:34:19.960 --> 0:34:22.080
<v Speaker 1>have to leave it there. John Trainer's chief investment officer

0:34:22.120 --> 0:34:25.759
<v Speaker 1>at People's United Advisers, joining us on the phone from Bridgeport, Connecticut. John,

0:34:25.760 --> 0:34:29.040
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for taking the time. Thanks for listening

0:34:29.040 --> 0:34:32.520
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:34.759
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0:34:34.760 --> 0:34:37.359
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0:34:37.480 --> 0:34:40.240
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