Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Charle Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing
Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance,
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Speaker 1: us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well around the world,
Speaker 1: COVID cases topping one hundred sixty nine million, deaths exceeding
Speaker 1: three point five million, more than one point seven eight
Speaker 1: billion doses of the vaccine have been given, and here
Speaker 1: closer to home, at least from me New York City.
Speaker 1: Past a milestone in the outbreaks easing as the seven
Speaker 1: day average for positive tests fell below one percent for
Speaker 1: the first time this year. Let's get into all that
Speaker 1: and more with Dr Ian lust Bader, clinical professor of
Speaker 1: medicine at n y U Lango Medical Center. He joins
Speaker 1: US now on the phone from Long Island. Dr LUs Beder,
Speaker 1: good to talk to you today. How are you, tim
Speaker 1: Always a pleasure, Happy Friday, doing very well, Happy Friday.
Speaker 1: I'm wondering how you're seeing this play out in in
Speaker 1: your own experience at n y U. H the seven
Speaker 1: day average for positive tests falling below one percent for
Speaker 1: the first time this year. Definitely a dramatic reduction and hospitalizations.
Speaker 1: There's still a few uh COVID bids UH at n
Speaker 1: y U, so it's not zero, but as you say,
Speaker 1: it's below one percent, and certainly the number of new
Speaker 1: cases and cases that need to be hospitalized are down dramatically,
Speaker 1: and you know, we're seeing that in the United States,
Speaker 1: which just encouraging. Cases coming down, and we have obviously
Speaker 1: a number of people who've who've had it and who've
Speaker 1: been immunized, so we're approaching herd immunity, you know, around
Speaker 1: the world. Definitely, I don't think that this is over
Speaker 1: yet by any stretch of the imagination. Well, I'm wondering
Speaker 1: if you think it will will get to the point
Speaker 1: that that the President has made a goal of US
Speaker 1: adults having one shot by the fourth of July, and
Speaker 1: we're just over six at this point. That's a that's
Speaker 1: a goal that he's put out. Are we going to
Speaker 1: make it? You know? I hope so. I think so.
Speaker 1: We still have a small um group, but a strong
Speaker 1: group a vaccine hesitant people who you know, watch videos
Speaker 1: on YouTube and on the internet and uh and or
Speaker 1: our hesitant based on on a variety of videos and
Speaker 1: other information they get. You know, we do try and
Speaker 1: reassure people. Nothing is a pent for sure. Um, I
Speaker 1: can tell that we're certainly not going to get to
Speaker 1: a p with vaccine hesitant people, but I think will
Speaker 1: be in a much safer zone if we get to
Speaker 1: that seventy and I think getting that by July fourth
Speaker 1: is reasonable. Yes, the latest numbers from the CDC telling
Speaker 1: us that of the population eighteen years of age or
Speaker 1: old or have received at least one dose of the vaccine.
Speaker 1: I'm wondering about how incentives can play into this. As
Speaker 1: you heard me mentioned earlier in the show, California is
Speaker 1: just the latest state to offer a vaccine lottery, a
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen point five million dollars in prizes available.
Speaker 1: This seems to be working, doesn't it. You know, it
Speaker 1: is to a degree. I don't think this has been
Speaker 1: done before. I'm unaware of any vaccine incentives that we've
Speaker 1: done in the recent past that I can think of.
Speaker 1: But whether it's a New York state with UM free
Speaker 1: uh university, state university or city university tuition, you know,
Speaker 1: in in a raffle um or prize money, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: it is a public health crisis, and I think I
Speaker 1: think it makes sense to do it. It's certainly going
Speaker 1: to capture many I don't know if all the vaccine
Speaker 1: hesitant people, but I think as long as it's um
Speaker 1: a positive step forward, I I support it. I'm one
Speaker 1: of the tens of million of people in the United States.
Speaker 1: You This weekend we'll be traveling to visit family, and
Speaker 1: it will be the first time that I've seen my
Speaker 1: grandmother in since March of last year. She's everybody's vaccinated.
Speaker 1: We're excited to all see each other. But I gotta
Speaker 1: tell you, it feels like for me, because we're all vaccinated,
Speaker 1: that that things are going to be just like they
Speaker 1: were before the pandemic. And I'm not expecting us to
Speaker 1: do anything differently. Are we making a mistake by doing that? No,
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think so. And by the way,
Speaker 1: congratulations on good genes Heaven Griff. Very impressive, I must say,
Speaker 1: so that's that's a positive UM. But I think the
Speaker 1: data it really is reassuring in terms of being with
Speaker 1: vaccinated UM people in groups, even if you haven't seen
Speaker 1: them for a while. I think it is safe. Ideally,
Speaker 1: you know, if you can sit outside, if the weather
Speaker 1: is nice, if you can, you know, still keep that
Speaker 1: six ft apart, maybe a gentle hug and then and
Speaker 1: then step back a little bit, you know, just to
Speaker 1: be safe. But I think the data is very clear that, uh,
Speaker 1: staying together with that vascinated groups indoors or outdoors, as
Speaker 1: the CDC said, is certainly fine to do. And even
Speaker 1: though we occasionally find a little bit of virus in
Speaker 1: the naves of parents, you know, with swabs like the Yankees,
Speaker 1: you know that we've talked about, I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be very safe. And I think the emotional positivity
Speaker 1: of being with family, for your ninety eight year old
Speaker 1: grandmother to see her grandkids and family, has such a
Speaker 1: positive energy that I think that that far outweighs the
Speaker 1: very small risk of of getting an infection. Yeah, we're
Speaker 1: certainly excited about it our Our two year old gets
Speaker 1: to see her for the first time, you know, in
Speaker 1: more than half his life. Um, Dr les Bader, if
Speaker 1: we were doing this interview six seven months ago, we'd
Speaker 1: be talking about the potential spike in cases following Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: or following Christmas. Just in the last minute that we have,
Speaker 1: and we'll come back with you. Do you expect to
Speaker 1: see a similar spike in cases because they are down dramatically,
Speaker 1: but after this holiday weekend. I don't think we're going
Speaker 1: to see as big as spike because of the widespread vaccinations.
Speaker 1: I think in the US we're on a good trend. Globally,
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure at all that this is over.
Speaker 1: I think we're having under reporting of many cases from
Speaker 1: many countries, but I think we're good in the United States.
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to see a meaningful spike
Speaker 1: after the holiday weekend, but certainly globally it is by
Speaker 1: no means over. Well, let's get right back to it
Speaker 1: with Dr Ian LUs beda clinical clinical professor of medicine.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, Dr LUs Better at n y U Landgo
Speaker 1: Medical Center joining us on the phone from Long Island.
Speaker 1: Dr LUs Better, I want to get to the idea
Speaker 1: of COVID long haulers. It's something that we started to
Speaker 1: hear about about a year ago. And those folks you've
Speaker 1: had lingering COVID symptoms, what do we know about how
Speaker 1: they can be treated now? Well, it's definitely a challenge.
Speaker 1: We are seeing a subset of patients who really have
Speaker 1: the these ongoing symptoms, ongoing chest paint, pok shortness of breath,
Speaker 1: brain fog um, heart issues. And we do know the
Speaker 1: virus effects every organ. In other words, we see uh, myocarditis,
Speaker 1: cardiac inflammation, kidney certainly long you know, obviously we've had
Speaker 1: Why most people resolve almost too normal and why other
Speaker 1: people have these ongoing symptoms isn't completely clear. There are
Speaker 1: a number of clinics and why you recently has a
Speaker 1: new clinic for long bawlers or post COVID syndrome. It's
Speaker 1: not as if we have a magic pill, but we
Speaker 1: certainly are really trying to learn about this and and
Speaker 1: follow those patients kind of study the patient's try a
Speaker 1: variety of different approaches. There's some evidence that some of
Speaker 1: those patients um after they get vaccinated, even though they've
Speaker 1: had COVID obviously and they have long haawl of syndrome
Speaker 1: post COVID syndrome. If you give them a vaccine, a
Speaker 1: subset of those do get better. So that's still another
Speaker 1: uh motivation for people even if they've had it, to
Speaker 1: get the vaccine. But there's definitely an ongoing set. I've
Speaker 1: had patients for a year who have just felt terribly
Speaker 1: even though they have the antibodies, and even though they've
Speaker 1: gone through it and their family has gone through it
Speaker 1: and the family feels better, they do not very hard
Speaker 1: to tease out exactly what that is or the magic
Speaker 1: formula to make them better. Yeah, I mean, I'm glad
Speaker 1: you mentioned the anecdotal evidence that we had seen earlier
Speaker 1: this year about those who had been vaccinated the symptoms
Speaker 1: actually getting better. Do we have anything beyond anecdotal at
Speaker 1: this point? There are no really formal studies. All of
Speaker 1: those studies are really being done, and there are a
Speaker 1: number of clinics that are being followed. And typically it's
Speaker 1: a multi specialty approach. In other words, will have pullman
Speaker 1: pulmonologists involved, lung specialists and neurologists involved. Uh. It's really
Speaker 1: a number of different specialties and they're really analyzed. We
Speaker 1: try a number of approaches for symptomatic treatment and anti
Speaker 1: viral treatment and a host of different things, but there
Speaker 1: is not a consensus. Certainly, it would be interesting to
Speaker 1: look at some things like ivermectin that that has been
Speaker 1: looked at for prevention and treatment. I think we're going
Speaker 1: to have to explore some unusual or untried approaches since
Speaker 1: this is basically new and we're really learning trying to
Speaker 1: learn how to deal with it as best as can be. Fortunately,
Speaker 1: it's a small group of patients, but they are very intractable.
Speaker 1: Many are miserable, and many have difficulty really returning to work. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's the people who have been affected by it. I
Speaker 1: really feel for them. Dr Lustbader. I want to end
Speaker 1: just talking about the origins of the coronavirus, because over
Speaker 1: the weekend there was a report in the Wall Street
Speaker 1: Journal that said three researchers from the WU Hunt Institute
Speaker 1: of Virology in China, we're sick enough all the way
Speaker 1: back in November of tw nineteen that they went to
Speaker 1: the hospital. The Wall Street Journal sites an undisclosed US
Speaker 1: intelligence report, And I'm wondering if you think that we
Speaker 1: are ever going to know from the perspective of this
Speaker 1: medical community, the scientific community where the virus came from.
Speaker 1: I think it's really important to to do our best
Speaker 1: to find out. I think there's mounting evidence that it
Speaker 1: really was a lab leak. You do think, um, I do.
Speaker 1: I think transparency in sciences and medicine is what it's
Speaker 1: all about. You know, we and that we go to
Speaker 1: other hospitals, We read papers, labs are visited to be
Speaker 1: reviewed and see what if whatever findings or scientific breakthroughs
Speaker 1: are found. It's a very open system, at least in
Speaker 1: the United States, and I think when you're prevented from
Speaker 1: doing that, it's very suspicious. And and Rand Paul Senator
Speaker 1: Paul actually raised some good points about no intervening animal
Speaker 1: species being found. And I think, um, we really trust
Speaker 1: sign in test and I think Dr Faucium might have
Speaker 1: been too trusting in this case. We really need to
Speaker 1: keep a lot of research domestically uh and and carefully
Speaker 1: monitored because all of the lamps in the United States
Speaker 1: are reviewed by by central agencies to prevent this sort
Speaker 1: of thing. Well, hopefully we get to a point where
Speaker 1: we actually can determine the origins. Dr LUs Bader, it's
Speaker 1: always great to chat with you have a great weekend.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. That's Dr Ian
Speaker 1: lust Better, clinical professor of Medicine at n y U
Speaker 1: Langos Medical Center. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well.
Speaker 1: In April, the House of Representatives agreed to discuss the
Speaker 1: possibility of establishing a commission to study reparations. It happened
Speaker 1: more than three decades after the proposal was first introduced.
Speaker 1: President Biden called the resolution a good idea, but full
Speaker 1: reparations from the federal government probably won't becoming anytime soon.
Speaker 1: That said, the city of Evanston, Illinois, is already getting started.
Speaker 1: Joining us today with an article in it a feature
Speaker 1: in the current issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine, available
Speaker 1: on newsstands and at Bloomberg dot com. Slash business Week
Speaker 1: is Joel Weber, editor at Bloomberg News and Susan Burfield,
Speaker 1: Projects and Investigations reporter at Bloomberg Business Week. They join
Speaker 1: us from Brooklyn. Joel Um, I'm I'm wondering about this
Speaker 1: because reparations are at least how Evanston is defining reparations
Speaker 1: are a lot more complicated than just giving people money,
Speaker 1: that's right. And and I just thought this story, um
Speaker 1: that Susan and her colleague, our colleague Jordan Holman worked
Speaker 1: on for the magazine was amazing and perfectly timed for
Speaker 1: for this week and the events of this week. You know,
Speaker 1: here we are a year after George Floyd's murder um
Speaker 1: and and I think the reparation story is one that
Speaker 1: it has been, you know, one of the most interesting
Speaker 1: to watch. Evanston is Illinois is particularly interesting because this
Speaker 1: is the first US city to really promise that that
Speaker 1: they would take this stuff on. And and boy that's
Speaker 1: not easy. It turns out even even the the word
Speaker 1: reparations can be controversial. So so Susan, can you can
Speaker 1: you help us understand what Evanston is going through and
Speaker 1: where it might go from here? Yeah? Sure. So, you know,
Speaker 1: as you said, there's some kind of two efforts underway
Speaker 1: throughout the country. There's an effort at the national level,
Speaker 1: at least to begin talking about a federal reparations program
Speaker 1: that would probably come to trillions of dollars um for
Speaker 1: every eligible African American. And then there are cities like
Speaker 1: Evanston that are looking at what UM the local cases
Speaker 1: for reparations for you know, injustice discrimination against black residents
Speaker 1: that the cities themselves are responsible for and that they
Speaker 1: can pay within their budget. So that's usually programs of
Speaker 1: millions of dollars in the case of Evanston ten million
Speaker 1: dollars and Susan they're doing this through the lens of
Speaker 1: real estate. Explain why that is. Yeah, so you know,
Speaker 1: for a city like Evanston, UM, it's not going to
Speaker 1: attempt UM to make restitution for something as huge as
Speaker 1: the years of slavery. But what the city wants to
Speaker 1: take responsibility for and is holding itself account accountable for,
Speaker 1: is for housing discrimination UM that black residents tastin Evanston
Speaker 1: for several decades. UM that contributes, as we know everywhere
Speaker 1: to UM a racial income gap of almost seven times
Speaker 1: between black and white families. And you know, in Evanston, UM,
Speaker 1: it's pretty well documented the ways in which black residents
Speaker 1: UM at one point lived all over the city and
Speaker 1: then over the course of about two decades, we're all
Speaker 1: steered towards one neighborhood in Evanston now known as the
Speaker 1: Fifth Ward and Susan can you tell us more specifically
Speaker 1: about Evanston because the story and story that you write,
Speaker 1: and you should also add that this is um episode
Speaker 1: of the Paycheck podcast as well, so there's a whole
Speaker 1: podcast version of this same story. UM. I'd just like
Speaker 1: to understand, like you know, rewind the clock because this
Speaker 1: goes back actually decades in Evanston. What what happened? Yeah?
Speaker 1: So you know, um, Evanston can document kind of the
Speaker 1: first arrival of black residents to the late UM eighteen
Speaker 1: fifties and sixties. Uh. And over the years, you know,
Speaker 1: there were increased number of black residents, especially the Great
Speaker 1: Migration of the nineteen twenties. And as more black residents
Speaker 1: settled in Evanston. Uh, there began kind of official and
Speaker 1: unofficial codes and restrictions on where they could live. And
Speaker 1: then there came redlining, which was a national policy but
Speaker 1: also took place in Evanston. UM. That further made it
Speaker 1: difficult for black residents who now we're all living in
Speaker 1: this one fairly concentrated area, um to get a fair
Speaker 1: mortgage and that policy no plus under investment by the city.
Speaker 1: The results in a neighborhood where the property values are
Speaker 1: lower than elsewhere in Evanston, the homes are worth less
Speaker 1: and families we're lost wealth. Um. In one of the
Speaker 1: stories that we highlight, UM of Carlos Sutton, his home,
Speaker 1: his grandfather's home, was actually moved from one part of
Speaker 1: Evanston to the fifth ward and the home, had it
Speaker 1: been UM, remained where it was, I'm sorry, would today
Speaker 1: be worth maybe five thousand dollars. UM. Where it is now,
Speaker 1: it's worth about a hundred and fifty thousand dollars, not
Speaker 1: even that far away from from where it was in
Speaker 1: the nine twenties. UM, susan ten million dollars. How are
Speaker 1: you that's the beginning? UM. How are they paying for it?
Speaker 1: So the money is coming from a new sales tax
Speaker 1: on UH, the sale of recreational marijuana legalized in Illinois
Speaker 1: at the start of Evanston has one dispensary and UH
Speaker 1: the city is collecting a three percent sales tax and
Speaker 1: estimates that sales will be about a million dollars or so.
Speaker 1: The sales tax will be about a million dollars a year,
Speaker 1: and they've dedicated the first ten million dollars of that
Speaker 1: to reparations. So it could be a ten year program,
Speaker 1: you know, if they raise more money through taxes UM,
Speaker 1: sooner they'll they'll spend that, and they're trying to raise
Speaker 1: additional funds. Susan, can you talk a little bit about, uh,
Speaker 1: just the word reparations and why that's why it's getting
Speaker 1: pushed back in just the last minute. We have sure
Speaker 1: so I think that you know, there's a sense among
Speaker 1: some black rep residents that reparations should really be reserved
Speaker 1: for the federal government efforts to make up for as
Speaker 1: best it can compensate for and apologize for slavery and
Speaker 1: the discrimination that followed UM, and that every black American
Speaker 1: African Americans should be eligible, and the sense that a
Speaker 1: smaller program h such as Evanston's and especially this first
Speaker 1: step that just focuses on housing, is a bit too
Speaker 1: limited to be called reparations. Susan Burfield, Projects and Investigations,
Speaker 1: reporter at Bloomberg Business Week. It's a fantastic feature that
Speaker 1: you wrote along with Jordan Holman also joining me now
Speaker 1: Joe Weber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. A big thank
Speaker 1: you to both of you for joining us. You can
Speaker 1: find Susan's story featured in the new issue of Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week magazine. It's available on newsstands and at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com Slash business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Well, if you've been paying any attention
Speaker 1: to what's been happening with cryptocurrencies, you know that volatility,
Speaker 1: at least of late, is the name of the game.
Speaker 1: If you're keeping track right now, Bitcoin down another twells
Speaker 1: thirty six thousand, one hundred and twenty dollars. Joining is
Speaker 1: now to help us make sense of it all is
Speaker 1: Pat Laveki, a CEO of Oasis Pro Markets, joining us
Speaker 1: now on the phone from Darien, Connecticut. Pat, it's great
Speaker 1: to have you back on a Bloomberg Business Week Radio.
Speaker 1: How you doing doing great? Tim, thank you for inviting
Speaker 1: me back. So so take me back to just a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago when we got that tweet from
Speaker 1: Elon Musk, that first tweet that that's set off I
Speaker 1: think fair to say this most recent round of volatility
Speaker 1: when it comes to cryptocurrencies, and he talked about the
Speaker 1: energy usage and Tesla no longer accepting bitcoin for purchase
Speaker 1: of cars. What did you think to yourself, oh boy,
Speaker 1: to start with, and then um, that's by the way,
Speaker 1: that's a normal reaction to an Elon Musk tweet. That's right,
Speaker 1: that's right, we're on the same page there. Um. Look,
Speaker 1: we're at the tip of the spear of this whole
Speaker 1: crypto progression and in ten years digital will be ubiquitous
Speaker 1: technologies as well as crypto in my opinion. Oh and
Speaker 1: just in regards to before I get started diving into
Speaker 1: you know, my views uncertain items, I just want to
Speaker 1: share these are my views and not the views of
Speaker 1: oasis pro markets. Okay, important distinction. Um I do I
Speaker 1: do want to know about the about energy usage though,
Speaker 1: I mean, this is this is now front and center.
Speaker 1: I mean you probably heard me talking with Charlie Pellett
Speaker 1: about the illegal bitcoin mine that was found in the UK.
Speaker 1: Iran banning bitcoin mining until September twenty two because of
Speaker 1: energy usage concerns. How does cryptocurrency get to a place
Speaker 1: where it's not assuming as much energy? Well, you know
Speaker 1: there's a lot of misconceptions about that, tim as well. Um,
Speaker 1: there is energy usage, but I believe Cathy Wood has
Speaker 1: also shared the fifty percent while fifty of the mining
Speaker 1: activity right now is in China. Most of that is
Speaker 1: supported by renewable and hydroelectric energy sources, just as an
Speaker 1: f y i UM. So that's on the Bitcoin front,
Speaker 1: on the East front, which is the second largest cryptocurrency
Speaker 1: out there. There are major improvements coming along over the summer,
Speaker 1: which is called the Berlin Fork, and then eat layer
Speaker 1: two by the end of the year. And just think
Speaker 1: about it this way. Today it's a four lane highway
Speaker 1: for Ethereum, the Ethereum blockchain at the when Layer two
Speaker 1: is implemented. Now it's a bit controversial because it was
Speaker 1: supposed to have been implemented a couple of years ago UM,
Speaker 1: but they've been going through the auditing process and improving it.
Speaker 1: Because it's a community of basically coders who have put
Speaker 1: this all together. That four lane highway will be you know,
Speaker 1: just as an example of forty eight lane highway. And
Speaker 1: with that there's much less electricity usage required. Now with
Speaker 1: Elon's comments, he came out. He did come out a
Speaker 1: few more about a week later and stated that he
Speaker 1: had spoken to the North American bitcoin miners and they
Speaker 1: had committed to publishing current and planned renewable usage as
Speaker 1: part of mining. So he started stepping back from that
Speaker 1: comment from two weeks ago, and I'm sure between us
Speaker 1: he didn't expect the kind of reaction that is implemented.
Speaker 1: I want to talk touch on regulation here too. UM, specifically,
Speaker 1: get your thoughts on what we heard from bank executives yesterday.
Speaker 1: Earlier this week, Jamie Diamond said to members of Congress UM,
Speaker 1: when asked about cryptocurrency, it was a buyer beware product
Speaker 1: and it goes back to how you run a business.
Speaker 1: He said, quote, I don't MC marijuana, but if you
Speaker 1: make it nationally legal, I'm not going to stop our
Speaker 1: people from banking it. What do you make of his
Speaker 1: comments around crypto Well, I I think that he you know,
Speaker 1: the view is UM, uh throughout my conversations with with
Speaker 1: others in this particular space, that regulation is coming through
Speaker 1: enforcement rather than you know, along the line, Skindlers asked
Speaker 1: for a market regulator. UH. That probably won't happen this year.
Speaker 1: Over the next couple of years, UH, it may eventually
Speaker 1: step up, but UM in the meantime through regulation of
Speaker 1: the u S securities lass. UM, there's this is the
Speaker 1: wild West him and in the wild West it was
Speaker 1: an even Wilder West a year ago, and it's you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of important players are coming into the market.
Speaker 1: So you've seen several major regulators from the Trump administration,
Speaker 1: like Brian Brooks and Redfern move over to crypto exchange US. UH.
Speaker 1: Redfern was at UM the Securities and Exchange Commission. He
Speaker 1: ran one of the divisions there. He's now a coin base.
Speaker 1: Brian Brooks was the acting control of the currency. He's
Speaker 1: now at Finance. And when you see the regulators making
Speaker 1: these types of moves, I think that you know, since
Speaker 1: they were on the inside, now they're on the outside.
Speaker 1: They do see the opportunities here in regards to UM,
Speaker 1: not not only obviously an opportunity for growth for themselves,
Speaker 1: but the opportunity for the United States for the markets, etcetera.
Speaker 1: But regulation does need to come. Well, are just in
Speaker 1: the last thirty seconds that we have pat what does
Speaker 1: that regulation look like? Uh, fantastic question. I think the
Speaker 1: crypto exchanges are heading towards being regulated. I run a
Speaker 1: regulated exchange for digital securities UM. Right now, there are
Speaker 1: there's no regulation whatsoever in regards to bid as, spreads, deliveries, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So it's buyer beware across the board and uh, once
Speaker 1: regulation comes, you'll see this market take off. Okay, just
Speaker 1: ten seconds left. Type of volatility that you expect to
Speaker 1: see with cryptocurrency for the remainder of the year. Okay, uh.
Speaker 1: In the next week the Bigcoin Fair twelve thousand people
Speaker 1: in Miami. Opportunity for bigcoin volatility. There it is Palla Veki,
Speaker 1: a CEO at Oasis pro Markets, joining us today from Connecticut.
Speaker 1: Have a great weekend, Pat, thanks so much for joining
Speaker 1: us talking all about bitcoin and crypto. Bitcoin by the way,
Speaker 1: at thirty and twenty two dollars. This is Bloomberg Brother Journal. Yeaw,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, honey, please,
Speaker 1: I'll do the right I want to drive, Just drive baby,
Speaker 1: good questions trying. This is the drive to the close community. Thanks,
Speaker 1: we'll try us Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, indeed it
Speaker 1: is with just over ten minutes until the last trading
Speaker 1: day of the month concludes. So we are looking at
Speaker 1: gains across the board on the DAW, the S and
Speaker 1: on the NASDAC. We'll joining us now to help make
Speaker 1: sense of it. All is John Trainer, chief investment Officer
Speaker 1: at People's United Advisors that has nine billion dollars in
Speaker 1: assets under management, joining us on the phone from Bridgeport, Connecticut, John,
Speaker 1: how are you doing on this uh last Friday before
Speaker 1: nice three day weekend, And you know, it's nice to
Speaker 1: see a nice rally in the market. So this is
Speaker 1: a great way to end the month and start the weekend. Yeah. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, unfortunately for us on the East Coast, it
Speaker 1: seems like the weather is not going to be so
Speaker 1: great this weekend, which is a little disappointing. But you
Speaker 1: know that's neither here nor there. Let's talk markets and
Speaker 1: and and really what you make of them right now.
Speaker 1: So here we are at the end of the month,
Speaker 1: the DAL higher by more than two the s and
Speaker 1: P five hundred higher by seven tenths of one percent,
Speaker 1: the NASDAK finishing the month looks like down at least
Speaker 1: as of right now. About what do you make of it? All?
Speaker 1: You know, what we're seeing is just a continuation of
Speaker 1: the themes that we've seen all through this through this year,
Speaker 1: sort of the give and take, the ebb and flow
Speaker 1: between growth and value. You know, is the economy going
Speaker 1: to be too hot or is it is it going
Speaker 1: to be you know, a more moderate growth. We have
Speaker 1: been in the camp that you want to and we
Speaker 1: started doing this last year. Build your portfolio for the
Speaker 1: economic rebounds. Start to decrease your growth emphasis, increase the
Speaker 1: value emphasis and the portfolio because we definitely think we're
Speaker 1: we're going to continue to see good news on the economy,
Speaker 1: good news as as the service industries start to reopen.
Speaker 1: So you want to position your portfolio there. And you know,
Speaker 1: I know it's tough with the daily ebb and flow,
Speaker 1: but keep your eyes focused on the rebounding economy and
Speaker 1: increase used the cyclical exposure in your portfolios. But to
Speaker 1: what extent is that priced in right now already? Well,
Speaker 1: I think you know, with with regard to a lot
Speaker 1: of the sort of the deeper cyclicals, you know, they've
Speaker 1: had a nice pop. You've sort of had the bounce
Speaker 1: in a lot of the stocks that were given up
Speaker 1: for dead last year. But you know, one of the
Speaker 1: things that we've been doing is continuing to take profits
Speaker 1: in the big texts were now slightly underweight. We were
Speaker 1: overweighted last year, so we're underweight. I don't think we're
Speaker 1: we're to the end of that. I still think, you know,
Speaker 1: there's time to to take profits in the text, So
Speaker 1: I think some of some of this is factored in.
Speaker 1: But when you see a lot of the frothiness in
Speaker 1: the market, I'm not sure that a lot of investors
Speaker 1: have positioned their their portfolios for the cyclical recovery. There's
Speaker 1: still a lot of sort of the the big tech
Speaker 1: ownership out there that I still think needs to be
Speaker 1: rotated out of. And what do they rotate into then, specifically, well,
Speaker 1: we're buying, Well, we like the financials, so we're buying,
Speaker 1: you know, more of the mid sized banks which are
Speaker 1: are more focused on the rebounding economy. The money center
Speaker 1: banks have done very well, but you want to own
Speaker 1: more than midsize banks. And then the industrials. We like
Speaker 1: the industrials. We want to be exposed to that, and
Speaker 1: we're buying you know, some of some of the industrials
Speaker 1: that you know definitely did not fall that hard last year,
Speaker 1: that have good, good cash flow growth, and we we
Speaker 1: we want to be exposed to them. So financials and
Speaker 1: industrials are the two areas were emphasized. Financials and industrials. Well,
Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about the eye word inflation
Speaker 1: and and to what extent, do you believe like the
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve and officials there we hear over and over
Speaker 1: again that it's transitory. Yeah, you know, And you know,
Speaker 1: one of the things we do is we we keep
Speaker 1: an eye on the bond market, and what the bottom
Speaker 1: market is telling you is that they believe the Fed.
Speaker 1: You know, I mean, look at the look at the
Speaker 1: inflation news that we've had recently here, um, and the
Speaker 1: bond market is really not reacting. So investor are giving
Speaker 1: the Fed the benefit of the doubt. Um. You know.
Speaker 1: One of the things that we do know though, is
Speaker 1: you know, we're probably going to get some surprises. We
Speaker 1: think we will get some surprises on the upside, meaning
Speaker 1: it's gonna shock the market and they'll think the FED
Speaker 1: is behind the curve. Generally, when that happens, you're the
Speaker 1: value companies tend to do better in that kind of
Speaker 1: an environment. So again there's another reason why you you
Speaker 1: probably don't want to own a lot of the higher
Speaker 1: pe stocks. You want to you know, have cushing your
Speaker 1: portfolio with with some of the value value stocks. But
Speaker 1: you know, we we don't think we don't think inflation
Speaker 1: is going to get out of control, but we think
Speaker 1: we're going to get some scares coming forward and it's
Speaker 1: gonna it's gonna shake the market a little bit. Maybe
Speaker 1: we'll see it in the bodom market. Well, what's your data,
Speaker 1: what's the data that that you're watching about that? Um?
Speaker 1: It's it's is it more? Is wage growth more important?
Speaker 1: There is that where you're keeping an eye on. When
Speaker 1: it comes to you hit the you hit the nail
Speaker 1: on the head, you know, I know, you know, our
Speaker 1: our economic team keeps it very close on commodity inflation,
Speaker 1: but inflation that we're we're most focused on. And again
Speaker 1: we're going to get the employment numbers next week, so
Speaker 1: we're going to get some fresh data. But the wage
Speaker 1: inflation data is really what we're keeping our our eye on. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, we've seen tremendous increases UH in uh increasing
Speaker 1: the minimum wage. A lot of employers, a lot of
Speaker 1: local employers are struggling to hire people that wage inflation.
Speaker 1: That if we see that start to pick up, that
Speaker 1: would tell us, boy of boy, maybe we are getting
Speaker 1: some more sustainable inflation here, and that would really spook
Speaker 1: the market. So you hit a nail the head. Wage
Speaker 1: inflation much more so than commodity inflation is important to us.
Speaker 1: So if if if wage inflation is most important, what
Speaker 1: happens if if you'd start to see significant wage inflation,
Speaker 1: what do you do to your portfolio? You know, then
Speaker 1: we start to get a little bit more defensive, because
Speaker 1: then you know, again, you know, they said policy acts
Speaker 1: with a lag, and if the FED starts to get scooped,
Speaker 1: and if the if investors start to think the Fed
Speaker 1: is behind the curve, again they're giving the Fed the
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt. Now if they believe the FIT
Speaker 1: is behind the curve, we certainly think we're going to
Speaker 1: see intertrates higher. So our portfolios right now, we're short duration,
Speaker 1: we're short the index um. But you know, a concern
Speaker 1: that we've got would be with the overall market. So
Speaker 1: I think you could see a little bit of a
Speaker 1: pullback if confidence in the FED gets shaken, then I
Speaker 1: think you'd see a pullback in the financial markets across
Speaker 1: the board. And that would be something that number one
Speaker 1: we don't think is going to happen just yet, but
Speaker 1: we'd have to make some adjustments to portfolios. Hey, John,
Speaker 1: I think one thing that it's surprising to me is
Speaker 1: that time flies and that the next jobs report is
Speaker 1: already coming next week, because it does feel like we
Speaker 1: we just had that two D and sixties six thousand
Speaker 1: number that was such a disappointment against what economists expected
Speaker 1: of a million and the most recent court. Um, what
Speaker 1: are your expectations for next week? And do you think
Speaker 1: that given that we are still not out of this
Speaker 1: pandemic and given that kids are not back in school
Speaker 1: full time, we are going to see another disappointment. No, actually,
Speaker 1: we actually think you're going to see the unemployment rate drop.
Speaker 1: You know, our forecast is to get down to five
Speaker 1: point nine percent, So we actually think it's going to
Speaker 1: be a good number. I know a lot of people
Speaker 1: were very surprised last month and it was a relatively
Speaker 1: weak number. We think that's going to change. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: just just from anecdotally what we're seeing on the on
Speaker 1: the on the small business side. Um, we think you're
Speaker 1: going to start to see the the rehiring. And really
Speaker 1: it's that rehiring in the you know, the waiters and
Speaker 1: waitresses and the lower wage jobs. That's really what the
Speaker 1: FED is looking for. So we think the FED is
Speaker 1: going to see some rehiring next week, which would be
Speaker 1: encouraging and we'll see what how that impacts their their
Speaker 1: tapering conversations. So, John, just in the twenty seconds that
Speaker 1: we have left, does that change how you're thinking about
Speaker 1: potential wage growth? If if the job's report does look good,
Speaker 1: if if it if it looks good, and you know,
Speaker 1: again we're hoping it's a good number. We're hoping that
Speaker 1: we see rehiring and the lower rage areas. You know,
Speaker 1: one month is not going to shake us, but that's
Speaker 1: really what we want to see, rehnoring, and we're gonna
Speaker 1: have to leave it there. John Trainer's chief investment officer
Speaker 1: at People's United Advisers, joining us on the phone from Bridgeport, Connecticut. John,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for taking the time. Thanks for listening
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