Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: I'm June Grosso in New York with Wendy Benjaminson in DC,
Speaker 2: sitting in for Joe Matthew. Former President Donald Trump took
Speaker 2: the witness stand today in the case where his business
Speaker 2: empire is at stake, and he repeatedly sparred with the judge.
Speaker 2: At one point, Judge Arthur Angeron asked Trump's attorneys, can't
Speaker 2: you control your client? And it seemed to only get
Speaker 2: worse from there, Wendy, he once again held a little
Speaker 2: mini press conference before he started his testimony, talked about
Speaker 2: everything from the new poll out to of course, this
Speaker 2: being an unfair prosecution. And I have to say it
Speaker 2: sounded a lot like that in the courtroom.
Speaker 3: It did.
Speaker 4: It absolutely sounded like that in the courtroom. He was
Speaker 4: giving campaign speeches. He was talking about how the judges
Speaker 4: unfair to him and has always been unfair to him,
Speaker 4: and all the sort of airing of grievances that we
Speaker 4: know and love from Donald Trump, and the judge was
Speaker 4: really it seemed to me like on the edge of
Speaker 4: his patients, where he was actually threatening to dismiss Trump
Speaker 4: as a witness and then issue a negative inference. And
Speaker 4: I'm not a lawyer. We'll have to ask our guests
Speaker 4: about that. But that doesn't sound good. It sounds like
Speaker 4: it means the testimony went south.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, the judge has been at the edge
Speaker 2: of his patients for almost the entire trial, certainly was
Speaker 2: last week with some of the gag orders. And we
Speaker 2: will bring in our guest, Jim Zyron. He's a former
Speaker 2: assistant United States Attorney for the Southern District. Host of
Speaker 2: conversations with Jim Zyron on PBS. So, Jim, I want
Speaker 2: to just tell you one exchange here. Trump says, I'm
Speaker 2: sure the judge will rule against me, as he always does,
Speaker 2: and the judge responds, you can attack me, but answer
Speaker 2: the question. And that was went downhill from there. What's happening?
Speaker 2: I mean, does it matter the judge I think knew
Speaker 2: what was going to happen here?
Speaker 5: Well, of course it matters. Trump has not conducted himself
Speaker 5: the way a defendant should conduct himself or a witness
Speaker 5: should conduct himself in a case before the court. He
Speaker 5: doesn't have to respect the judge, but he has to
Speaker 5: respect what the judge represents, which is the rule of law.
Speaker 5: And that's what's wrong with Trump and trump Ism. That
Speaker 5: is undermining our justice system. And for him to take
Speaker 5: the stand and issue this kind of rant, which is
Speaker 5: not responsive to questions. First place, it hurts his case
Speaker 5: because the judge can draw inferences based on the nature
Speaker 5: of his statements and his refusal to answer questions. And secondly,
Speaker 5: it's improper. It shows no respect for our justice system
Speaker 5: or the rule of law, and that's a very serious problem.
Speaker 4: Well, Jim, I've got two questions for you. One is
Speaker 4: here Wendy here in Washington. The one please explain to
Speaker 4: us what a negative inference means when he threatened to
Speaker 4: throw Trump off this Dand but also you quoted a
Speaker 4: judge in your op ed in The Hill newspaper recently
Speaker 4: saying that no defendant would be able to get away
Speaker 4: with some of the things that Trump has said. And
Speaker 4: Trump complains that everyone's being extra hard on him because
Speaker 4: he's Trump. Do you think he's actually getting an easier
Speaker 4: time than Joe Blow from Queen's would get if he
Speaker 4: were sitting in the defend witness chair today.
Speaker 5: I think Joe blow from Queen's or you arrived from
Speaker 5: whatever burrow we come from. A witness has to have
Speaker 5: respect for the court and respect for the process. And
Speaker 5: the judge is the boss in that room, not Donald Trump,
Speaker 5: not anyone else. If he has some disagreement with the
Speaker 5: judge's rulings, the remedy is to take an appeal. But
Speaker 5: the remedy is not to go into these political rants,
Speaker 5: which he's been doing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he gets away with it. And this is
Speaker 2: a judge trial. There's no jury there watching what's happening.
Speaker 2: This A lot of this is for the reporters who
Speaker 2: are in the courtroom. And he gets away with it.
Speaker 2: I mean, let's face it, it's already an upheel battle
Speaker 2: for him in this trial. The judge is already found
Speaker 2: fraud here, so it's a question of damages. And you
Speaker 2: know how much his testimony really weighs in. I'm not sure.
Speaker 5: Well that's right, and he is going about this in
Speaker 5: a way that is highly improper. I think if for
Speaker 5: anyone else, the judge wouldn't find him in contempt. And
Speaker 5: I think if it goes any further, the judge needn't
Speaker 5: clappingm and irons and send them to Rikers Island. The
Speaker 5: judge will say, the next time you go into one
Speaker 5: of these rants, it's going to cost you a million dollars.
Speaker 5: The second time, it's going to cost you five million dollars.
Speaker 5: And you do it again, it's ten million dollars. You'll
Speaker 5: see how fast he shuts up. Yeah, but actually he
Speaker 5: has the money in any event, Do you, Jim.
Speaker 2: Do you really think that the judge so far has
Speaker 2: fined him five thousand and then ten thousand. I mean,
Speaker 2: how high can you go up on the next one?
Speaker 5: Well, that's chicken feed. But I'll bet Trump isn't paying
Speaker 5: for it anyway. I'll bet it's being paid out of
Speaker 5: some political pack, some donor who thought donating the money
Speaker 5: for political purposes, not for fines.
Speaker 4: Well, and that, actually, Jim, is an excellent point about
Speaker 4: the political nature of this. I mean, Trump doesn't care
Speaker 4: if it costs him a million dollars of his legal
Speaker 4: defense fund, you know, as long as he can make
Speaker 4: the political points.
Speaker 3: Because June's right, there's no jury in the room.
Speaker 4: But we're all reading stories about it we're all glued to,
Speaker 4: you know, watching him with his little gaggles in the courthouse.
Speaker 4: And these are as much campaign stops as there would be,
Speaker 4: you know, standing in front of the butter cow and
Speaker 4: at the Iowa State Fair.
Speaker 3: So I how much.
Speaker 4: And the justice system deal with the political sort of
Speaker 4: pontificating in the political circus that's going to go on,
Speaker 4: not only in this trial, but in the four criminal
Speaker 4: trials to come.
Speaker 5: Well, the justice system, the justice system has to be
Speaker 5: malleable and has to adapt itself to the situation. George
Speaker 5: Washington would never have found himself in this situation. And
Speaker 5: we haven't had a president of the United States in
Speaker 5: all our history who has been charged with ninety one
Speaker 5: felonies in four indictments in four different courts to state
Speaker 5: to federal and the justice system, the justice system will
Speaker 5: just have to learn to cope with it. And they
Speaker 5: will cope with it.
Speaker 2: Don't you think that it'll be different when he's at
Speaker 2: a trial where there's a jury, that the judge will
Speaker 2: be more careful there to make sure that this doesn't
Speaker 2: happen if he takes the stand, even I mean, this
Speaker 2: is aal so he had to take the stand when
Speaker 2: called by the attorney the Attorney General's office. But in
Speaker 2: a criminal case, he may not take the stand, and
Speaker 2: I think that the judges will be stricter when there's
Speaker 2: a jury there.
Speaker 5: I think the judges will be stricter. And you know,
Speaker 5: in mafia cases we've had unruly defendants who have made
Speaker 5: comments when they did not take the stand, and the
Speaker 5: judge actually gagged them in front of the jury. And
Speaker 5: so this precedent not only for gag order, but for
Speaker 5: gagging him so they can't interrupt the proceedings. He has
Speaker 5: to have respect for the proceeding.
Speaker 4: And while that's true, I think they also need to
Speaker 4: politically for themselves, for Letitia James, for any of the
Speaker 4: elected officials there, need to show a little bit of
Speaker 4: deference to a former president, don't they, even if he's
Speaker 4: not popular in New York City?
Speaker 5: They would, Well, he's a private citizen like any of us.
Speaker 5: The office he once held demands very high respect. He's
Speaker 5: not comported himself in a way that goes with the
Speaker 5: word respect. I mean, he's been rational. He's engaged in
Speaker 5: these harangues against the court personnel, against prosecutors, all to
Speaker 5: serve his own political ends. And the Justice Assistant will
Speaker 5: reach a point where it won't tolerate it well.
Speaker 4: And I wanted to ask you about something just a
Speaker 4: little bit different, the collision between the political calendar and
Speaker 4: the trial calendar. Eileen Cannon down in Florida on the
Speaker 4: Document's case, which actually seems to be the clearest of
Speaker 4: all the cases, she's now sounding amenable to maybe delaying
Speaker 4: the trial beyond May, maybe even giving in to Trump's
Speaker 4: request that it'd be after the election. What would be
Speaker 4: your take on how that would work and how would
Speaker 4: it change the case legally? If he were tried after
Speaker 4: the election and won.
Speaker 5: Well, assuming he won the election, all these cases would
Speaker 5: disappear because he would either pardon himself, which means the
Speaker 5: end of all the federal cases, or he would direct
Speaker 5: his attorney general, since he's already said that if he
Speaker 5: gets in he's going to have a politicized Justice Department,
Speaker 5: and he'll direct his attorney general to drop the cases,
Speaker 5: and they'll drop the cases. So that's what he's banking on.
Speaker 5: This New York civil case is one of the most
Speaker 5: threatening cases because it may strip him of his net
Speaker 5: worth and prevent him from conducting business in the state.
Speaker 5: Of New York.
Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you this about the other cases.
Speaker 2: Is that why it's important that the Georgia case go forward,
Speaker 2: because that would be a state conviction and he couldn't
Speaker 2: pardon himself from that.
Speaker 5: He could not pardon himself either from the Georgia case
Speaker 5: or from Alvin Bragg's Stormy Daniel's case in New York.
Speaker 2: Those I was aboarding that one on purpose, the weakest
Speaker 2: of the case.
Speaker 5: Those, I don't know that it's the weakest. The false
Speaker 5: statements are very clear. The question is going to be
Speaker 5: enhanced into a felony, and I think you can, but
Speaker 5: that is the weakness. However, it's true we can't pardon
Speaker 5: those offenses. But there's no way that a local prosecutor
Speaker 5: is going to bring to trial a sitting president or
Speaker 5: even the president elect. It's just not going to happen.
Speaker 2: There is some room, though, because the trial that was
Speaker 2: supposed to go forward a couple of weeks ago they
Speaker 2: all set, they all pled out on that. So now
Speaker 2: there's some room in that calendar perhaps to bring the
Speaker 2: case earlier.
Speaker 5: There is, but no trial date has been set, and
Speaker 5: I think if a trial date is set, you're going
Speaker 5: to have other defendants who will plead guilty, and the
Speaker 5: defendants will remain are going to be Trump, Giuliani, Mark Meadows,
Speaker 5: maybe one to others. Will be a very manageable trial,
Speaker 5: and it can certainly occur before the election. The real
Speaker 5: problem is that if he's convicted of all these indictments,
Speaker 5: he's still qualified to be the president of the United States.
Speaker 5: Why because the framers of our Constitution never dreamed that
Speaker 5: there would be a president or a candidate for president
Speaker 5: like Donald Trump. Lawless, contemptuous, disrespectful of the rule of law.
Speaker 5: He is a rogue candidate. He would be a rogue president.
Speaker 5: He said if he gets in, he's going to terminate
Speaker 5: the Constitution to stay in office. He said, he's going
Speaker 5: to weaponize the Justice Department to get at as political enemies.
Speaker 5: We've never had that before. And our Constitution, which was
Speaker 5: framed in seventeen eighty nine and the amendments in seventeen
Speaker 5: ninety one, are just not geared to deal with it.
Speaker 5: The one hope of disqualifying him unless the Republican Party
Speaker 5: wake up and decides not to nominate him. Though in
Speaker 5: hope of disqualifying him, as the case in Colorado and
Speaker 5: Minnesota where voters have brought cases as they haven't actually
Speaker 5: twenty one jurisdictions to disqualify them.
Speaker 2: But those cases are real uphill battles. There are so
Speaker 2: many different issues there that the plaintiffs have to win
Speaker 2: in order to win those cases. Do you really see
Speaker 2: those cases as stopping him from being on the ballot.
Speaker 5: I see those cases as going to the Supreme Court,
Speaker 5: because if just one state holds that he's disqualified, the
Speaker 5: Supreme Court is going to have to make a decision
Speaker 5: as to whether Section three of the fourteenth Amendment of
Speaker 5: the Constitution disqualifies Donald Trump, and they don't have to
Speaker 5: find that he physically engaged in the insurrection by force.
Speaker 5: The history of the Fourteenth Amendment shows that people have
Speaker 5: been disqualified based on speech. The simple statement that he
Speaker 5: plans to terminate the Constitution if he gets in office
Speaker 5: in order to stay in office violates Article two of
Speaker 5: the Constitution and violates Section three of the fourteenth Amendment.
Speaker 5: I don't think it's an uphill case because there are
Speaker 5: a lot of issues that have been read.
Speaker 2: The weight of authority says it's an uphill case. I mean,
Speaker 2: there hasn't been a case at that level, at the
Speaker 2: appellate level at all. It's an open question, an open
Speaker 2: constitutional question that the Supreme Court, as you say, will
Speaker 2: have to decide that's true.
Speaker 5: It's an open constitutional question. Is it's an open constitutional
Speaker 5: question as to whether he has blanket immunity and from
Speaker 5: crime for everything he did in office he claims he does.
Speaker 5: The Supreme Court has never passed on that. But it
Speaker 5: would seem to me that the logic of the constitution
Speaker 5: is that he does not have blanket immunity.
Speaker 4: So jim switching to another untested le legal practice, or
Speaker 4: at least novel legal practice. We got a whole bucket
Speaker 4: full of them today. Is John Eastman going on sixty
Speaker 4: minutes last night. He is a defendant in the election case,
Speaker 4: and he went on sixty minutes and laid out a
Speaker 4: whole defense for himself, you know, opened himself up to
Speaker 4: all sorts of questions about how, you know, the things
Speaker 4: that he did legally for Donald Trump to try to
Speaker 4: overturn the twenty twenty election work perfectly within his rights.
Speaker 3: And he went on and on in the sort of defense.
Speaker 4: If you were his defense attorney, would you have advised
Speaker 4: him to go on sixty minutes while under indictment and
Speaker 4: awaiting trial.
Speaker 5: Absolutely not. And it's hard to imagine a defense attorney
Speaker 5: whoever would have advised him to go on to if
Speaker 5: you don't want your clients speaking until the time comes
Speaker 5: for him to take the standard trial. If he does
Speaker 5: take the standard trial, Eastman himself is a seasoned lawyer.
Speaker 5: Why he went on television and made these statements, It's incomprehensible.
Speaker 5: It's just like Trump, who goes on television and incriminates himself.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll find out more. I'm sure about that, Thanks
Speaker 2: so much. That's Jim Zarren, former Assistant US Attorney for
Speaker 2: the Southern District of New York. Coming up, we're going
Speaker 2: to be talking about voters in the five battleground states
Speaker 2: preferring Trump to Biden. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: Hello, I'm June Brosso in New York with Wendy Benjaminson
Speaker 2: in DC sitting in for Joe Matthew. Voters in five
Speaker 2: battleground states favored Donald Trump over President Joe Biden. That's
Speaker 2: according to a New York Times Siena College poll voters
Speaker 2: in the battleground states, and they trusted Trump over Biden
Speaker 2: on the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. Joining us now
Speaker 2: are Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie shan Zano and Rick Davis. Genie,
Speaker 2: is it too soon for the Biden administration to worry
Speaker 2: about these or is it time to worry?
Speaker 6: It is time to worry. And I am a worrier
Speaker 6: by nature, June, So I say that with all due respect.
Speaker 6: You know, this is very very similar actually to what
Speaker 6: we found with the Bloomberg pole that came out a
Speaker 6: few weeks ago. So there is, you know, really not
Speaker 6: much distance between these two poles, both looking at the
Speaker 6: battleground states, and Biden has a real challenge on his hands.
Speaker 6: To only be up within a margin of ERA plus
Speaker 6: two in Wisconsin doesn't bode well. That said, you know,
Speaker 6: he has long had a struggle with critical constituencies. Young
Speaker 6: people who I talk to all the time, African Americans
Speaker 6: now the Arab of population in the United States, so
Speaker 6: there are signs that he has trouble.
Speaker 3: That said, I.
Speaker 6: Take a little bit exception to how this has been
Speaker 6: portrayed as Trump versus Biden, only because Trump hasn't been
Speaker 6: in the news that much as it pertains to the election.
Speaker 6: His focus has been on his legal challenges and whining
Speaker 6: and complaining about his treatment in the court system. That's
Speaker 6: pretty much what he's been on air talking about. And
Speaker 6: I have to say many people agree with him on
Speaker 6: those things. And so I think once people start to
Speaker 6: listen to your previous guests and others the things he
Speaker 6: is saying openly about how he is going to if
Speaker 6: he has ever reelected, use the federal government's power to
Speaker 6: seek revenge and retribution, they may have a slightly different view,
Speaker 6: at least enough of them in these battleground states to
Speaker 6: make a difference. But that, by the way, is not
Speaker 6: a heck of a way for an incumbent president to run,
Speaker 6: but it may at this point be his best hope.
Speaker 4: Well, I want to come in here in hello Jennie,
Speaker 4: and I wanted to ask you specifically about the democratic numbers.
Speaker 3: Then we can go back to Trump like.
Speaker 4: But the the numbers on Biden have been consistently across
Speaker 4: the New York Times, and thank you for mentioning it.
Speaker 4: The Bloomberg News Morning Consult boll of last week, which
Speaker 4: showed similar in these swing states, like we know Trump's
Speaker 4: gonna I mean, Biden's gonna win California. We know Trump's
Speaker 4: probably gonna win Texas and places like that. In these
Speaker 4: swing states that will drive the election. Biden is not
Speaker 4: doing well. And as you said, he's not doing well
Speaker 4: among young voters who we counted on last time, among
Speaker 4: African American voters who we counted on last time, among
Speaker 4: Latino voters. It's that they're you know, all over the map.
Speaker 4: So Democrats have a tendency to stick with the horse
Speaker 4: that they expected to win two years ago. And is
Speaker 4: there any point at which the Democrats and I think
Speaker 4: I know the answer to this, are gonna say, you know,
Speaker 4: this guy's just not gonna win. We're gonna give the
Speaker 4: country back to Donald Trump. Maybe we should look at
Speaker 4: some of these others, or is it just too darn l.
Speaker 6: You know, we have heard that, I mean, we heard
Speaker 6: David Axelrod come out over the weekend. We've heard Dean Phillips,
Speaker 6: We've heard others. I think the reality is timing and otherwise.
Speaker 6: Joe Biden is the nominee unless he chooses to withdraw
Speaker 6: his name and allow the field to open up. And
Speaker 6: there's several reasons for that. The primary, you know, the
Speaker 6: filing deadlines. The other reality, though, is that other Democrats,
Speaker 6: you know, Andy Basheer should he win tomorrow, Josh Shapiro,
Speaker 6: Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whim or other potential people who might run,
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris, nobody wants to be responsible for pushing Joe
Speaker 6: Biden aside and allowing Donald Trump a space and an
Speaker 6: entry to walk in. So so many factors couple, you know,
Speaker 6: together means that unless Biden withdraws or God forbid, something happens,
Speaker 6: illness or otherwise, he will be the nominee and Democrats
Speaker 6: will rally to him. The question is, I think, do
Speaker 6: they stay home in a general if he's the not
Speaker 6: because they're just you know, not excited or enthusiastic, or
Speaker 6: do they come out and you know, the reality also
Speaker 6: of American politics is unfortunate. I think this race will
Speaker 6: be decided by one hundred thousand people plus or minus
Speaker 6: in five or six states. Quite frankly, the rest of
Speaker 6: us don't matter that much, and that's no way to
Speaker 6: run a democratic election. But that's the way we do
Speaker 6: it here.
Speaker 7: Rick.
Speaker 2: Do you think all this angst by the Democrats over
Speaker 2: whether someone should step in for Biden, whether there should
Speaker 2: be you know, a different nominee, is that hurting Biden's
Speaker 2: numbers too?
Speaker 7: Probably not. I mean it doesn't get enough circulation June
Speaker 7: to you know, have like rank and file voters being
Speaker 7: able to respond to these kinds of things.
Speaker 2: Doing me then, because I've heard so much about it already, Well,
Speaker 2: you got to get out of the Upper west side.
Speaker 3: I mean that's the first upperside.
Speaker 2: But that's okayside.
Speaker 7: I'm sorry, but anyway, Yeah, no, I think it says
Speaker 7: it's what's really bother him are the fact that one
Speaker 7: they got to see through the filter of his age, right,
Speaker 7: And we know a lot of Democrats are very concerned
Speaker 7: about an eighty year old president, eighty one year old
Speaker 7: presidential candidate, an eighty two year old president, right. I mean,
Speaker 7: like these are the things that are sort of first, second,
Speaker 7: and third on their lists. And then they get to
Speaker 7: the economy and Democrats aren't happy with the economy. I mean,
Speaker 7: these numbers in the Times Santa pul reflective of the
Speaker 7: Bloomberg a Morning Console poll. I mean, almost half of
Speaker 7: black voters, normally a core constituency of the Democrat Party
Speaker 7: are are rating the president is wanting on economic issues
Speaker 7: over that with people under thirty, as Genie was talking about,
Speaker 7: you know, and so like, these are sort of core
Speaker 7: Democratic constituencies that have a beef with the president one
Speaker 7: on his age and then two on his performance in
Speaker 7: office on the economy. Anything after that is just sort
Speaker 7: of you know, small ball in politics. Because sure, I mean,
Speaker 7: you know, he's got the back of the party on abortion,
Speaker 7: but less than ten percent of the voters in these
Speaker 7: swing states think abortion is the number one issue. So
Speaker 7: he just doesn't have the right deck of cards. The
Speaker 7: guy needs a new deck of cards.
Speaker 4: So Rick, going back to Donald Trump for just a minute.
Speaker 4: One of the interesting points in that New York Times
Speaker 4: Sienna College poll was that Trump's indictments and his trials
Speaker 4: aren't turning off Republicans and the independence who might support him,
Speaker 4: but a conviction would A conviction would make at least
Speaker 4: six percent of those voters decide they better vote for
Speaker 4: Biden because Trump would be a convicted fella and that might.
Speaker 3: Be enough to swing the election.
Speaker 4: But you know, one, I guess I'm sort of proud
Speaker 4: of voters who believe in innocent until proven guilty. But
Speaker 4: do you really think you know that that is finally,
Speaker 4: after all this time, the tipping point and Trump's enduring popularity.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I wouldn't even say after all this time when,
Speaker 7: because the reality is the people who will flip on
Speaker 7: a conviction into the Democratic column are independent voters, mostly
Speaker 7: women who were originally Biden voters. I mean, like, the
Speaker 7: reason Biden's not winning in these states is because independent
Speaker 7: voters have basically gravitated to Donald Trump. And they're not
Speaker 7: permanent Trump voters. These aren't like the rural white males
Speaker 7: without a college education who make under fifty thousand dollars
Speaker 7: a year. They're not going anywhere for Donald Trump conviction
Speaker 7: or otherwise. But what could happen is that if these
Speaker 7: trials go poorly, certainly independent women, especially in the experbs
Speaker 7: and suburbs, could decide. You know what, I'm not happy
Speaker 7: with Biden. I'm not happy with inflation. I'm not happy
Speaker 7: with the current economy, which is why I'm sitting on
Speaker 7: the Republican ballot right now. But like I cannot, I
Speaker 7: can not afford to give my vote to a person
Speaker 7: as a convivicted felon. So I mean, these are the
Speaker 7: horrific situations for the president to be in because he's
Speaker 7: now relying on the justice the system to win a
Speaker 7: presidential race. I mean, June, I'm glad you're here on
Speaker 7: the show today because only you could explain to us
Speaker 7: what the real risks are inherent in that strategy.
Speaker 2: Jeanie, I want to ask one question about how the
Speaker 2: issue of abortion is going to play into the presidential race.
Speaker 2: Do you think it will affect the presidential race.
Speaker 6: We're going to get a preview of that tomorrow night
Speaker 6: in places like Virginia, Ohio, you know, some other states.
Speaker 6: Six states have gone pro abortion rights since the Dobbs decision.
Speaker 6: And I think tomorrow is going to be a test.
Speaker 6: Do voters, particularly Democrats, put aside their lack of enthusiasm
Speaker 6: for Biden, their frustration with the economy and go out
Speaker 6: and say abortion is important enough that we will get
Speaker 6: out and vote Democratic because they've promised to protect it.
Speaker 6: Another thing to watch, I would say is Governor Youngkin's
Speaker 6: message in Virginia. He's got a really different and interesting
Speaker 6: message on abortion than many Republicans who are defensive. He's
Speaker 6: gone a little bit on the offense. So if that
Speaker 6: pleas may help Republicans. But answer your question, yes, I
Speaker 6: think it is critical to watch abortion.
Speaker 3: In the poll.
Speaker 6: It was the one area where Joe Biden was doing
Speaker 6: better than Donald Trump when it came to an issue.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 8: Welcome to the second hour of the Fastest Show in Politics.
Speaker 8: I'm Kayleie Liones with Wendy Benjaminsin. Today we're in the
Speaker 8: driver's seat while Joe Matthew takes a day off, and
Speaker 8: with every new week brings us closer and closer to
Speaker 8: a deadline in Congress. November seventeenth, the six now, so
Speaker 8: that's eleven days by my account. Days seems like it
Speaker 8: might be enough time to get things done, but I'm
Speaker 8: not really clear on what exactly it is they're going
Speaker 8: to try to get done by then to keep the
Speaker 8: government funded. So maybe it's not that much time.
Speaker 4: Well, I think you have a lot more faith than
Speaker 4: perhaps I do right now in the state of Congress's
Speaker 4: ability to get anything done. How long did it take
Speaker 4: them just to get a speaker in the House, that's true,
Speaker 4: So they have eleven days. They are not anywhere close
Speaker 4: to agreeing on whether the israelid should be tied to
Speaker 4: spending cuts, whether the Ukraine age should be tied to Israel,
Speaker 4: whether any of it should be tied to the US
Speaker 4: Mexico border security funding. I mean, there's very little agreement
Speaker 4: here except some general notion that, yeah, we ought to
Speaker 4: give Israel some money right.
Speaker 8: Now, right, And it's unclear exactly how they do that
Speaker 8: that the Senate can agree to in the first place,
Speaker 8: because the Senate wants to tie Israel with other things
Speaker 8: that it doesn't seem like the new speaker, Mike Johnson
Speaker 8: is super interested in tying it too.
Speaker 3: So it becomes a.
Speaker 8: Question not just of storting things out internally in the
Speaker 8: House of Representatives, which as the past speaker proved time
Speaker 8: and again, is very hard to do, it's then reconciling
Speaker 8: it with the other Chamber and making it something that
Speaker 8: President Biden will sign when it comes across his desk.
Speaker 4: That's right, and there will have to be some real
Speaker 4: jiu jitsu going on for this to happen by November seventeen.
Speaker 4: But then, of course they all want to get out
Speaker 4: of town for Thanksgiving, as all of us do. So
Speaker 4: what's what's gonna how long this is gonna last, or
Speaker 4: what's gonna happen?
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson does seem to make some noises suggesting he's
Speaker 4: interested in a continuing resolution, so maybe maybe there will
Speaker 4: be one that they can work out.
Speaker 3: We'll have to say.
Speaker 8: The question is will it be clean? Will it come
Speaker 8: with spending cuts that might might be not super appetizing
Speaker 8: to Democrats in the other chamber? Or could we see
Speaker 8: a ladder continuing resolution? Even though none of us really know.
Speaker 3: What that means.
Speaker 8: Has anyone sworned out the definition?
Speaker 3: Not a single person. Maybe mcmilvany can do it.
Speaker 8: Okay, well, let's ask him. Mickmilvany is with us now.
Speaker 8: We always appreciate him joining us on Monday. So he's
Speaker 8: a man of many titles, as we always tell you.
Speaker 8: Former Acting White House Chief of Staff under the Trump administration,
Speaker 8: former OMB director and of course founder of the House
Speaker 8: Freedom Caucus as a former congressman from South Carolina. That
Speaker 8: good to see you. We always appreciate your time. How
Speaker 8: do you think this shakes out? What do you think
Speaker 8: happens to keep the government funded? And can you please
Speaker 8: tell me what a laddered CR is?
Speaker 9: I think so, hello, okay, clearly run Joe off, which
Speaker 9: I approve of. So that's fine. The what I this is,
Speaker 9: what I'm hearing is that there is some support for
Speaker 9: a semi clean, clean continuing resolution. This is coming from
Speaker 9: even from some of the Republican Conservatives who would never
Speaker 9: have voted for that under Kevin McCarthy, but think they
Speaker 9: might be able to do it under Mike Johnson. The
Speaker 9: words I keep hearing are what we trust Mike Moore,
Speaker 9: et cetera, et cetera. He's new on the job, et cetera.
Speaker 9: So we'll come in some slack. So there are some
Speaker 9: discussions about a CR that would take you through either
Speaker 9: the end of the year or early into next. That
Speaker 9: laddered concept is interesting and as best I can tell,
Speaker 9: or's best anybody seems to be able to tell, Is
Speaker 9: it instead of doing a CR for the whole government,
Speaker 9: you would do a CR and try and slice it
Speaker 9: up into pieces that align with the twelve spending bills.
Speaker 9: So there would be a CR for Defense, a CR
Speaker 9: for HHS, a CR for State Department operations, a CR
Speaker 9: for the VA, that type of thing, And that way,
Speaker 9: if they did pass one or two or more of
Speaker 9: the appropriations bills in that period of time, that would
Speaker 9: sort of then drop into the spot created by that
Speaker 9: piece of the laddered CR. Does that make any sense
Speaker 9: at all? Now that I try to say it out
Speaker 9: loud for the first.
Speaker 8: Time, I think so.
Speaker 3: But I'm squinting.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I am too, And I really feel bad
Speaker 4: for the folks over at the Office of Management and Budget.
Speaker 4: It would have to administer a ladder.
Speaker 9: People.
Speaker 3: I'm sure they are.
Speaker 4: But let's talk about Let's say that Mike Johnson has
Speaker 4: the magic potion and he gets a CR that Biden's signs,
Speaker 4: and everything's hockey dory. It goes till January fifteenth, the
Speaker 4: day of the Iowa Caucuses, or it goes until April
Speaker 4: after Super Tuesday, when pretty much the nominees are set.
Speaker 4: How that deep into an election year can they solve
Speaker 4: a spending issue.
Speaker 9: Wendy, I don't think. I don't think the dates of
Speaker 9: the various political events factor in as much as that
Speaker 9: trigger date for the Massy Amendment that was made part
Speaker 9: of the debt ceiling deal. And as I sit here
Speaker 9: and talk to you, I can't remember what the date was,
Speaker 9: but it's sometime in the first quarter of next year
Speaker 9: that there's an automatic across the board spending cut. I
Speaker 9: think it's one percent. If there's a CR on that
Speaker 9: particular date, that changes the analysis because there's going to
Speaker 9: be a lot of Republican conservatives who would love to
Speaker 9: see that triggered because they get the automatic one percent
Speaker 9: spending cut, and there's a lot of Republican sort of centrists,
Speaker 9: especially the appropriators, who don't want to see that. So
Speaker 9: that's that next sort of inflection point that might drive
Speaker 9: a wedge between various wings of the Republican park. I
Speaker 9: don't think you see that with a with a CR
Speaker 9: that goes to the end of the calendar year. I
Speaker 9: don't think it goes if it goes to January fifteenth.
Speaker 9: But you start talking in you know, March April next year,
Speaker 9: then you talk about that automatic cut, which is going
Speaker 9: to be a real, real spot of friction between the
Speaker 9: two folks, much more so than whether or not Donald
Speaker 9: Trump is the nominee, because he's going to be the nominee,
Speaker 9: and everybody's acting in Washington like he's going to be
Speaker 9: the nominee already.
Speaker 8: Well to that point, Mick, as we're preparing for a
Speaker 8: Republican debate on Wednesday, another primary debate, the third in
Speaker 8: which the former president and front runner will not be
Speaker 8: in attendance. But it comes at a time where it
Speaker 8: feels like Nikki Haley actually has momentum in a quasi
Speaker 8: sustainable right She, of course Harold's Harold's from your South Carolina.
Speaker 8: Do you think she stands any real chance of challenging
Speaker 8: your former boss?
Speaker 9: You know, right now she's the most likely. But keep
Speaker 9: in mind, she's done great the last month or so
Speaker 9: month or six weeks, She's done really, really well. She's
Speaker 9: doubled her polling across you know, across the board. She's
Speaker 9: in the low single low double digits. I think you
Speaker 9: were from seven to fourteen in Iowa, but please allow
Speaker 9: that to sink in. She doubled from seven to fourteen.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump is still in the low fifties. And more importantly,
Speaker 9: I think if you watch the dynamics, she's taken the
Speaker 9: support away from Ron DeSantis, not away from Donald Trump.
Speaker 9: This is not a pay three places kind of horse race.
Speaker 9: It's not win place for show. If you're not first,
Speaker 9: your last. So Nicki does have momentum, she does seem
Speaker 9: to be the ascendant primary challenger, but she's still forty
Speaker 9: five to fifty points behind Donald Trump. That's a huge number,
Speaker 9: and in any other ordinary year we would be talking
Speaker 9: about it just because Donald Trump is so far out
Speaker 9: in front. But we need something to talk about because
Speaker 9: he's not engaging in the race, at least in the
Speaker 9: head on yet.
Speaker 3: Well, let's talk about that the poles. The debate is
Speaker 3: Wednesday night.
Speaker 4: Nicki Haley may have another chance to talk about foreign policy.
Speaker 3: And it seems that she may be able to be
Speaker 3: a senate there.
Speaker 4: What about if Donald Trump is actually convicted in any
Speaker 4: of these trials He The New York Times Sienna College
Speaker 4: poll said that six percent of voters would switch off
Speaker 4: Donald Trump if he were actually ever a convicted felon.
Speaker 3: Is that the window.
Speaker 4: That a Nikki Haley or Iron Desantas could slip into.
Speaker 9: You know, maybe you know, as soon as you say yes,
Speaker 9: you really, you know, you become yet another person who
Speaker 9: has predicted Donald Trump inevitable fall from grace and it's
Speaker 9: never happened. So I think that the track record would
Speaker 9: suggest that, no, it doesn't hurt him if he's actually convicted,
Speaker 9: at least in a Republican primary. I think if your point,
Speaker 9: Wendy is that it looks like it might cost him
Speaker 9: in a general, and that might cost him the ability
Speaker 9: to win. Because six percentage points in a Republican primary
Speaker 9: is nothing. He still wins easily. Six percentage points in
Speaker 9: a national election can be a big difference, depending upon
Speaker 9: where those votes fall state by state. But let's make
Speaker 9: the case. Okay, if he's convicted, now Nikki Haley and
Speaker 9: DeSantis can say, well, look, he's convicted, he'll never win
Speaker 9: a general, that this is the time you need to
Speaker 9: abandon him and come over and vote for me. To
Speaker 9: DeSantis or Nicki Haley or Tim Scott or whatever. Maybe
Speaker 9: you know, I just think Trump has just done such
Speaker 9: a masterful job of making himself out to be a victim.
Speaker 9: You talked a bit a little bit about that on
Speaker 9: your intro, that these criminal investigations, and this civil investigation
Speaker 9: in New York that's going on today is actually helping
Speaker 9: him financially, excuse me, politically. He has successfully made himself
Speaker 9: out to be the victim of a weaponized government. That's
Speaker 9: a message that's resonating with people well beyond whatever I expected.
Speaker 9: He's doing better now with the minority communities, the African
Speaker 9: American community, the Hispanic community than he was doing six
Speaker 9: months ago. And I think it's that victimization thing that
Speaker 9: he's been able to sell. So again, the man has
Speaker 9: more than nine lives, and I'm not going to be
Speaker 9: quick to predict his end this point.
Speaker 8: Well, and Mick, I'm not sure you're exactly wrong about
Speaker 8: what you first said about it helping him financially, because
Speaker 8: he has been able to fundraise off of that, and
Speaker 8: arguably a lot of that's going right to those legal bills,
Speaker 8: as we've seen him in court now, and he's going
Speaker 8: to spend a lot more time in quart, or at
Speaker 8: least his lawyers will over the course of the next year.
Speaker 8: As we talk though about the former president and all
Speaker 8: the investigations and charges that he is facing. To bring
Speaker 8: this back to Congress, there's of course a separate investigation
Speaker 8: happening into President Biden in the House an impeachment in quiry.
Speaker 8: Do you think that that could be damaging for Republicans
Speaker 8: in twenty twenty four if they go ahead with it.
Speaker 8: Mike Johnson has said he doesn't want to predetermine any outcome,
Speaker 8: but it does seem like generally he's supportive. And we
Speaker 8: all saw last week when there was a bunch of
Speaker 8: Republican members on Sean Hannity's show. Everybody put their hand
Speaker 8: up when they said, yeah, we think we're going to
Speaker 8: impeach Biden.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I could see it both ways. Let me make
Speaker 9: the case real quickly for both sides of that equation.
Speaker 9: It's bad for Republicans. It's bad for Republicans because people
Speaker 9: are tired of this. They now perceive impeachments to be
Speaker 9: political show trials. You know, Donald Trump had two, could
Speaker 9: have had seven. If he gets elected again, he's going
Speaker 9: to have fifty. Right. It's become a running joke with
Speaker 9: some voters, and if the Republicans run the risk of
Speaker 9: alienating those folks who would typically be swing voters, that
Speaker 9: could hurt them. The flip side is could it hurt Biden?
Speaker 9: I think it could hurt Biden in this way. If
Speaker 9: there's evidence these two checks don't help Biden, and what
Speaker 9: it does, combined with his entire experience with his son Hunter,
Speaker 9: is part of his sales pitch. Part of what he
Speaker 9: was offering in twenty twenty was vote for normalcy, bring
Speaker 9: back you know, normal government, Bring back a president who
Speaker 9: looks like a president, not like a clown. Bring back
Speaker 9: somebody who's got some stability in his life. Vote for me.
Speaker 9: And if his son is running around and this money
Speaker 9: comes back to him in some fashion, it sounds like
Speaker 9: he might have already made some mistakes about you know,
Speaker 9: where's the money, Show me the money, or I had
Speaker 9: a Chinese firewall up between me and my son. Those
Speaker 9: seem to be breaking down screen. Voters might look at
Speaker 9: this and go, everybody's corrupt. You know, there are no
Speaker 9: normal people in politics anymore. And that sense of dejection,
Speaker 9: I think hurts Joe Biden more than it does Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: So let's go back to this debate on Wednesday night
Speaker 4: for just a minute. Meg, You know, why are we
Speaker 4: listening If everyone is so certain as you are in
Speaker 4: the Republican Party that Donald Trump is the nominee.
Speaker 3: Why are we doing this?
Speaker 4: And why has the RNC agreed to four more debates
Speaker 4: with the not Trump candidates.
Speaker 9: Yeah, the couple different answers because a couple of different
Speaker 9: constituencies in the answer. Keep in mind that the crowd
Speaker 9: did get dramatically smaller. The audience got smaller from the
Speaker 9: first one to the second one, so more and more
Speaker 9: American people are asking the same question. Still, this is
Speaker 9: Republican primary, and the RNC is sort of doing what
Speaker 9: it knows how to do, which is it's a primary season.
Speaker 9: We have to have debates. If we don't have debates,
Speaker 9: it looks like we're favoring Trump, and we can't do that.
Speaker 9: Even though he's the you know, the the the former president,
Speaker 9: he's not an incumbent. So we're trying to play it
Speaker 9: straight down the middle with all of these folks. And
Speaker 9: there's legitimate candidate's I mean, Ron de Santis is a
Speaker 9: legitimate presidential Canada. Everybody up there, well, I mean Larry
Speaker 9: Elder wasn't, but I mean most of everybody who's going
Speaker 9: to be on the stage on Wednesday night is a
Speaker 9: legitimate presidential contender, and the RNC has got to treat
Speaker 9: it that way. There's also a good bit of money
Speaker 9: to be made here. I think the parties make a
Speaker 9: good bit of dough off off of the debates, from
Speaker 9: the sponsorships and so forth. So there's there is a
Speaker 9: money making operation. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 9: it's what they do. It's what they're set up to do.
Speaker 9: It's like, look, there's seven people or whatever it is
Speaker 9: now running for president. Here they are. Go take a
Speaker 9: look at them. We'll put them in front of you
Speaker 9: on national television. Lets you decide. It's what they're supposed
Speaker 9: to do. It's Trump that's actually, you know, thrown this
Speaker 9: into into chaos, which is nothing new by not showing up.
Speaker 9: I don't blame it for not showing up. I think
Speaker 9: it's the right decision in the primary. I think it
Speaker 9: may come back to haunt him when Joe Biden, assuming
Speaker 9: Biden's the Democrat nominee, has the ability then with good
Speaker 9: reason to say, oh, Donald, you didn't debate in the primary,
Speaker 9: I'm not debating you in the general. And Trump would
Speaker 9: be desperate for a debate headhead against Bide, and Bide
Speaker 9: would be desperate for an excuse not to do one.
Speaker 9: And I think Trump may have given him that excuse.
Speaker 9: So look, we'll go through the motion. We'll do it.
Speaker 9: It might be good entertainment, certainly, it's help NICKI Haley
Speaker 9: in the past. It might help her again. I might
Speaker 9: have somebody else. Never know.
Speaker 8: All right, well, we'll all look forward to Wednesday, but
Speaker 8: we always look forward to Monday when Mick mulvaney joins us.
Speaker 8: Thank you very much as always, of course, former O
Speaker 8: and B director, former congressman from South Carolina, Freedom Cock
Speaker 8: is co founder and former acting chief of staff to
Speaker 8: former President Donald Trump. A lot of formers, but we
Speaker 8: love actively talking with Mick.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast.
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