1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:16,439 Speaker 2: Single best idea, my theme into the end of the 3 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: year and probably dazzled into twenty twenty five. Is this 4 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 2: great bull market and make it. Not making an opinion 5 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: on buy Hoole sell, but I'm just saying we're observing, 6 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 2: whether you're in the game or not, this great bull market. 7 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 2: The booking team has been phenomenal a by getting in 8 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: a cross section of opinions, and today was glorious of 9 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: equity strategist Jason Trenner joins us from Strtigius Research and 10 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: Gino Martin Adams joined us on short notice with reaffirming 11 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 2: our earning's growth for next year. But you really get 12 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 2: some nuances when you listen to four five six frontline 13 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 2: equity strategists. I know from a couple of days ago, 14 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: Brian Belski of Demo Capital Market saying, look, everybody gets 15 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 2: it's a cyclical bull market, but he feels there's a 16 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 2: structural underpinning to it. Of course, he's been a bull 17 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 2: and on board. No one I know has been more 18 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 2: of a bull on board in Benjamin Ladler. He was 19 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: at HSBC and on Christmas Eve of two thousand, I 20 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 2: believe eighteen. He said you must climb on board this 21 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 2: cratered market. Nobody caught this great bull market like Ben 22 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 2: laydlor here, Ben Ladler of Bradesco BBI forward. 23 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 3: We need to treat it with some respect. Momentum is 24 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 3: the most powerful factor historically, you know, in markets. We've 25 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 3: seen this extension of this US economic and market exceptionalism. 26 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 3: We've seen wins appeared a very strong seasonality. So I 27 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 3: think we need to respect it. But again I wouldn't 28 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 3: and I wouldn't fear it because I do think it's 29 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 3: going to be fundamentally backed up by the earnings continuing 30 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 3: to come through and deliver. If that wasn't the case, 31 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 3: I'd be, you know, pretty worried. He because valuations are 32 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 3: you know, evaluations are high. We've repriced down to three 33 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 3: fat cuts. But I think, you know the fundamentals of 34 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,679 Speaker 3: this full market, of the earnings are going to keep delivering. 35 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 2: Ben Laylor constructive and maybe very clear. The free cashlow 36 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 2: story for the Mags seven are tangible. Another equity voice, 37 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 2: Joiner is today Alisha Levine at B and Y. All 38 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 2: of these people are different and you get so you 39 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 2: learn their nuances, their academic pedigree where they've worked all 40 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: the different theories that are out there. No one has 41 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 2: a mathematical construct in the equity markets like Alisha Levine. 42 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 2: Maybe the only one in fixed income close is Jim 43 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 2: Caron over at Morgan Stanley with his physics background. Alisha 44 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 2: Levine at B and Y is bulletproof on the math 45 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 2: the Euclidean space, the three dimensional space of equity analysis. 46 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 4: Here she is the profit is better. Let's go back 47 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 4: to the late nineties. Starting in the late nineties, you 48 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 4: saw a steady increase in the operating margins of the SMP, 49 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 4: which created a higher multiple regime for the SMP. If 50 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 4: you just go back in time and you get your 51 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 4: average of sixteen times forward earnings, well, your margins were 52 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 4: also nine to ten percent. Now we're looking at thirteen 53 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 4: and a half percent for next year, and that's because 54 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 4: it's being driven by the cash flow of tech, and 55 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 4: so the companies are healthier. It's not just earnings, it's 56 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 4: free cash flow. Margins are better, it's keeping the multiples higher. 57 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 4: You've got a healthier market, and the pricing of tech 58 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 4: compared to the rest of the market on a relative 59 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 4: basis is actually lower than it was in twenty twenty one, 60 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 4: nineteen ninety nine, and other periods where there was a 61 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 4: tech boom or you know, a technology change where the 62 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 4: market got excited about a technology change. So it's relatively 63 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 4: less expensive given free cash flow, margins and earnings. 64 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 2: Alicia Levine of BNY We'll continue this trend into the 65 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 2: new year, looking at the equity markets, all different opinions, 66 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 2: quite frankly, a set of people rather cautious, not gloomy, 67 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 2: but just rather cautious in this great bull market. On 68 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 2: your morning commute on Apple car Play, got the numbers 69 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: yesterday for Apple car Play. Thank you so much for 70 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 2: your commitment to that new technology, Android Auto as well. 71 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 2: Good morning on Serious XM channel one twenty one and 72 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:21,239 Speaker 2: on the corridor here on the East Coast from ninety 73 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: nine one FM in Washington up the ninety two nine 74 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 2: FM Boston is far north is Mount Catata and Millanocket. 75 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 2: Don't forget We're on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and 76 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 2: on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea