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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, the overarching news and market themes of the day

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Speaker 2: is Israel hitting nuclear sites as the world is now

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Speaker 2: awaiting Iron's response to the US wrecking its nuclear sites

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Speaker 2: in Iran over the weekend as well. All right, joining

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Speaker 2: us now is doctor Aeriel Cohen, Senior Fellow Atlantic Council,

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Speaker 2: joining us on the latest. How do we rank the

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Speaker 2: probability of an Ironium response?

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Speaker 3: It will be a response they unless the Iranian regime collapses.

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Speaker 3: They will be trying to save face. The problem is

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Speaker 3: their options are not great. One, they could try and

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Speaker 3: attack tankers, and we see that the tanker rates, the

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Speaker 3: insurance rates are all going already. Two, they could try

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Speaker 3: to mine or close the Strait of Hormus.

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Speaker 4: That will piss off.

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Speaker 3: Their Chinese customers and endanger their political support from China.

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Speaker 3: Three we see that Russia is talking but so far

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Speaker 3: is not getting involved. Why because Russia benefits from high

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Speaker 3: oil prices. The higher the prices, the happier puts in

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Speaker 3: is so what else can they do? They could attack

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Speaker 3: their neighbors. They would be cautious not to attack American Basis.

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Speaker 3: It looks like because they could already could have attacked,

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Speaker 3: they didn't. The regime is have broken because a lot

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Speaker 3: of generals were taken out, so the decision making chain

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Speaker 3: is WOBBLI. But if the attack American Basis, us will

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Speaker 3: deliver devastating blows against their on if they attack the neighbors,

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Speaker 3: same thing. And here's a question that a lot of

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Speaker 3: people did not ask about the alleged closure of the

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Speaker 3: Strait of Hormus. The pathway in the strait is through

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Speaker 3: the Omani waters, it's not the Iranian waters.

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Speaker 4: So are they going.

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Speaker 3: To endanger their fragile relationships with other Gulf states a

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Speaker 3: big question mark. Also, they're normalized with Saudi Arabia under

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Speaker 3: the Chinese umbrella, the China broker that deal. Are they

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Speaker 3: going to endanger both Saudi and China connections? So the

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Speaker 3: option don't look good for the regime. And what I

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Speaker 3: am worried about, what keeps me up at night, is

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Speaker 3: all that highly enriched uranian. They enriched several hundred kilos

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Speaker 3: to sixty percent. If the ability to build a deliverable

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Speaker 3: nuclear weapon is destroyed, now what about a dirty bomb?

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Speaker 4: And I think that should be on the table.

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Speaker 3: US and Israel do not put regime change on the

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Speaker 3: table yet. All the Trump had these musings about it.

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Speaker 3: But all the boxes need to be changed in terms

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Speaker 3: of ballistic missiles, in terms of enriched uranium, in terms

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Speaker 3: of proxies, and eventually if we move to an agreement,

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Speaker 3: that should be addressed in the future.

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Speaker 5: Great Aeriel, is it your opinion that some people are

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Speaker 5: talking about regime change but that seems far fetched? Is

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Speaker 5: your sense that if there were to be regime change

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Speaker 5: in around it would have to come organically from the people?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely one percent.

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Speaker 3: It's a country with three plus thousand year history, ninety

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Speaker 3: plus million people.

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Speaker 4: It's fractured. You have the Shah, the former.

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Speaker 3: Shah supporters, the Crown Prince lived several miles from me

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Speaker 3: here in Potomac, Maryland.

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Speaker 4: We have the far left, the mujahidin Hulk people.

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Speaker 3: We have the liberals in the regime, and of course

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Speaker 3: we have IRGC and the Mullahs.

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Speaker 4: So different components with diametrically.

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Speaker 3: Opposed views of Iran society, the role of religion, the

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Speaker 3: role of women. Don't forget this is a regime that

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Speaker 3: was executing more people per capita than any other country

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Speaker 3: in the world. This is a regime that a woman

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Speaker 3: could be beaten and killed for not wearing the hijab

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Speaker 3: in a proper way. So a lot of people inside

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Speaker 3: Iran are very unhappy. But this is a totalitarian regime

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Speaker 3: or quasi talk to all their terror or rechi that

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Speaker 3: picks up, picks out dissidents and publishes them and kills.

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Speaker 2: Them, which then makes an internal regime change enormously complicated.

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Speaker 2: All right, doctor aiel Colemen, thank you very much, senior

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Speaker 2: fellow Atlanta Council, for the latest in the Middle East

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Speaker 2: or of what the actual options may be for Iran

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Speaker 2: and the rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's turn to the non market reaction. I mean,

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Speaker 2: when you see the kind of headlines that we saw

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Speaker 2: over the weekend. The impact was estimated to be huge

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Speaker 2: on financial assets, and that has not seemed to play out.

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Speaker 2: Emily lavell as Chief investment officer in New Mexico Climate

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Speaker 2: Investment Center broadcase, Emily here, what do you make of

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Speaker 2: what many are saying are a subdued market reaction?

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Speaker 6: Hi, good morning to be here. I would agree.

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Speaker 7: I mean, I'm pretty surprised that the markets haven't reacted

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Speaker 7: a lot more forcefully. I think that, you know, this

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Speaker 7: attack really expands the range of potential outcomes and creates

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Speaker 7: a lot more potential downside and a lot more risk

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Speaker 7: in markets. And I think it just underscores the need,

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Speaker 7: the strategic need in the United States to have, you know,

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Speaker 7: sources of energy coming from from all different sources, because

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Speaker 7: you know, if we get an escalation from Aron, then

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Speaker 7: we could really see, you know, some some pretty big

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Speaker 7: energy shocks which could really impact inflation and prices all

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Speaker 7: across the world, the US being no exception.

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Speaker 5: What does the Trump administration mean for climate? Your Climate

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Speaker 5: Investment Center thinking about alternative sources of energy?

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Speaker 4: How are you guys.

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Speaker 5: Kind of positioning what you do in terms of addressing

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Speaker 5: the challenges of climate change with this new administration.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, well, that's a it's a good question, it's a

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Speaker 7: tough question. I mean, honestly, you know green Banks if

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Speaker 7: if you're not familiar with with what they are, you know,

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Speaker 7: we know that we need an estimated three and a

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Speaker 7: half trillion dollars of investment into the energy sector in

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Speaker 7: order to transition away from fossil fuels by twenty fifty.

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Speaker 6: And green Banks stand in almost.

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Speaker 7: Every state to really support that acceleration of the energy transition.

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Speaker 7: And you know, New Mexico is really interesting because we're

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Speaker 7: the second largest producer of oil and gas in the country,

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Speaker 7: but we're also second in wind potential, is second in

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Speaker 7: solar potential, third and wind, and sixth and geothermal, and

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Speaker 7: so the potential for real diversification of our economy is

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Speaker 7: really significant. Unfortunately, what the Trump administration is doing through

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Speaker 7: a variety of policies enacted, the most significant of which

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Speaker 7: is the budget bill, the reconciliation bill that's currently going

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Speaker 7: back and forth between the Senate and the House, is

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Speaker 7: it really removes the majority of the incentives that have

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Speaker 7: been in place since two thousand and five to bring

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Speaker 7: cleaner electrons onto the grid, and so you know, unfortunately,

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Speaker 7: I think what that means for the whole economy is

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Speaker 7: going to be higher energy prices, less resilience, less manufacturing,

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Speaker 7: fewer jobs, you know, big multiplier effects for us Here

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Speaker 7: at the Green Bank, we continue to see a lot

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Speaker 7: of projects that are really interesting and benefit both you know,

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Speaker 7: the low income communities that we're trying to serve and

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Speaker 7: the broader economy.

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Speaker 6: But it's definitely going to be more challenging.

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Speaker 7: And there are estimates that fifty percent of the backlog

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Speaker 7: and that's in the interconnection queue right now on the

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Speaker 7: grid could be at risk if the bill passes in

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Speaker 7: its current.

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Speaker 2: Form, and that's not even take into account how long

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Speaker 2: that line is to actually get connected to AGRID. So,

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Speaker 2: if I was looking at individual stocks, is this like

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Speaker 2: a fossil fuel play then at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: or are there are more nuanced ways to play this?

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Speaker 7: You know, I sort of think of the way the

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Speaker 7: US has been in the last couple of months in

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Speaker 7: the way that I'm used to looking.

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Speaker 6: At emerging markets.

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Speaker 7: I invested in emerging markets for almost ten years, and frankly,

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Speaker 7: I think you've got a skate where the puck is

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Speaker 7: going when it comes to Paul, it's it's really hard

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Speaker 7: to stick your neck out there. That being said, I

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Speaker 7: do think there is maybe some potential in the utility

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Speaker 7: scale UH solar and wind market. And the reason for

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Speaker 7: that is, you know, at the same time that we're

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Speaker 7: doing all these things to hurt this cheap, easy to

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Speaker 7: get on the grid energy, we're having this big national

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Speaker 7: discussion about how we become AI leaders. And we heard

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Speaker 7: next to our CEO, John Ketchum say last week, if

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Speaker 7: we kill solar and wind, we're going to lose the

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Speaker 7: AI race. And so I do think that there's the

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Speaker 7: potential for you know, lawmakers to come back to the

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Speaker 7: table to try to support some utility scale solar plus storage.

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Speaker 7: In particular, the administration is still very focused on domestic manufacturers,

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Speaker 7: so I think a name like First Solar my benefit.

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Speaker 7: You've got the you know, gas turbine manufacturers GeV and Siemens.

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Speaker 6: But this is a cyclical industry.

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Speaker 7: They've got backlogs to twenty thirty two now, and I

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Speaker 7: just see more downside than upside at this point, with

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Speaker 7: the back clogs the way that they are.

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Speaker 6: Then you've got clean firm power.

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Speaker 7: Which is you know, nuclear geothermal, and that's all well

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Speaker 7: and good, and I think that that does need to

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Speaker 7: be built out, but there aren't that many ways to

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Speaker 7: play it in the market. You know, you can look

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Speaker 7: at the Spraught Uranium Trust. There's a geothermal pure Play,

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Speaker 7: or Matt there's Constellation Energy Group, but it's you know,

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Speaker 7: it's it's tough out there. I think the reality is

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Speaker 7: that you're going to start to see some people have

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Speaker 7: to come back to the table because solar and storage

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Speaker 7: is the cheapest and fastest way to get new energy

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Speaker 7: onto the grid.

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Speaker 5: Emily, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.

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Speaker 5: Emily Levelle, chief investment Officer for the New Mexico Climate

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Speaker 5: Investment Center.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Appleclocklay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Taking a look at the market here, you're looking at

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Speaker 2: Brent off by one point one percent and WTI crewed

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Speaker 2: off one point two percent. The question I'm getting is

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Speaker 2: why why aren't we higher in prices? So I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: ask that question to Emri Descent. She is founder and

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Speaker 2: director of Market intelligence for Energy Aspects. All right, Amrito,

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Speaker 2: what's your answer?

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Speaker 8: Why are we lower in prices today? Yeah?

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Speaker 9: Well, because again we haven't seen any actual supply disruptions.

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Speaker 9: You know, we've been saying that, Yes, while Iran is

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Speaker 9: threatening to close the straits or Foremos, that remains very

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Speaker 9: much the last resort for them, right because if they

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Speaker 9: did that, they are really going to get the US

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Speaker 9: involved in a much much bigger way than they have

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Speaker 9: been so far. Any country that's even neutral towards it

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Speaker 9: will basically become far more kind of angry about the

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Speaker 9: whole situation. And I don't think Iran necessarily wants to

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Speaker 9: attract the hour of the whole world, given how weak

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Speaker 9: the regime is right now, So I think that's a

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Speaker 9: big part of it. The other one is a bit

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Speaker 9: more technical. We've seen most of the crude traders trade

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Speaker 9: this via the ouptions market, So when you are short

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Speaker 9: call options as prices are going up, you actually are

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Speaker 9: taking profits all the way through, right because you're kind

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Speaker 9: of selling out of your position. So that's kind of

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Speaker 9: adding to it, I would say, generally speaking, unless Iran

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Speaker 9: actually escalates to the point of disrupting supplies, we are

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Speaker 9: probably not going.

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Speaker 8: To see any significant increase in prices.

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Speaker 5: From here, Amrina. Is there a consensus about how much

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Speaker 5: geopolitical risk premium is in oil these days?

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Speaker 9: I don't know about consensus, but I think this one's

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Speaker 9: relatively easy, right because we were in the high sixties

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Speaker 9: for Brent, we were already moving higher, just based on

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Speaker 9: the fact that fundamental had been stronger than people expected.

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Speaker 8: But I would say, given where.

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Speaker 9: We are now versus where we start started when the

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Speaker 9: conflicts kind of headline started coming in, it's about ten dollars.

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Speaker 6: What's your question then?

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Speaker 2: So if I'm assuming the question you're getting is why

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Speaker 2: aren't oil prices higher?

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Speaker 6: But what's you question?

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Speaker 9: I mean, for me, the real question becomes the medium term, right,

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Speaker 9: Like I know the focus for the marketers in the

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Speaker 9: Straits and Foremost, but we know this isn't over yet, right.

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Speaker 8: We know Israel while kind of.

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Speaker 9: You know, walking typrope around this, they are talking about

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Speaker 9: regime change and what does that mean? A political upheaval

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Speaker 9: has never been associated with a good outcome for oil production.

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Speaker 8: Be It Eerrah bit Kuwait, be It Iran in the past, be.

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Speaker 9: It Libya, and I do wonder for the medium term outlook,

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Speaker 9: like do we actually see lower Iranian production over the

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Speaker 9: next couple of years at a time when OPEC plus

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Speaker 9: will also have less PEC capacity because they're bringing back

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Speaker 9: a lot of production. I know this is not the

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Speaker 9: time because of you know, the focus obviously has to

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Speaker 9: be does Iran react and clos the straits? But for me,

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Speaker 9: that's the more interesting thing that our long term ail

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Speaker 9: price is undervalued given everything that was already going to happen,

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Speaker 9: and now we added around to the mix.

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Speaker 5: How has OPEC been behaving OPEK plus Has it been

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Speaker 5: rational over the last I don't know, just since maybe

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Speaker 5: you know October seventh of last year when things got

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Speaker 5: really really ratcheted up in the Mid East.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean it's a great quitiontive. They're rational.

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Speaker 9: I mean you have to understand kind of their logic

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Speaker 9: to this, and I think they have.

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Speaker 8: Been consistent, is what I would say.

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Speaker 9: Saudi Arabia has been saying, Look, it needs to be

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Speaker 9: equitable cuts, everybody needs to be a part of.

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Speaker 8: This, and I think that's what they have been doing.

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Speaker 9: But at the same time they have also been kind

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Speaker 9: of obviously there's been disagreements between OPEC members, with Kazakhstan

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Speaker 9: cheating clearly and some of the others as well with

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Speaker 9: regards to, you know, what that kind of policy should be.

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Speaker 9: I think that in terms of what's going on with

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Speaker 9: the Middle Eastern conflict, one thing they're very very clear

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Speaker 9: is they don't want to get drawn into it.

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Speaker 8: They want to make sure that their.

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Speaker 9: Genuine infrastructure, not just energy, it's protected, and I think

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Speaker 9: they're going.

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Speaker 8: To try and be as neutral as possible.

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Speaker 9: And again, this is one of the reasons why I

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Speaker 9: don't think they're going to be surging production if there

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Speaker 9: were to be an Iranian outage, because the last thing

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Speaker 9: they want is to then get attacked because Iran's going

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Speaker 9: to be like, you're taking advantage of our situation.

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Speaker 7: Right.

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Speaker 2: Well, speaking of here's an extremely unfair question. When President

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Speaker 2: Trump tweeted earlier, I want lower oil prices. Drill baby drill,

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Speaker 2: Come on you, guys, I'm watching who's the you. I mean,

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Speaker 2: who is he talking to specifically?

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Speaker 9: I mean drill baby drill refers to the US producers, right,

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Speaker 9: and I mean it's I did smile when I saw

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Speaker 9: that because I was like, yes, you say that, but

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Speaker 9: at the same time, you know, thanks to tariffs, thanks

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Speaker 9: to just kind of broader his economic policies, oil prices

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Speaker 9: are a lot lower. Again, if you take away the

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Speaker 9: ten dollars geopolitical risk premium, then it has been in

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Speaker 9: the in the last you know, couple of years, so

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Speaker 9: there is no incentive for their producers to drill.

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Speaker 8: We know we've talked.

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Speaker 9: About this, Alex, you and I about how Gassi are

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Speaker 9: the acreage is getting all of these reasons right. So

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Speaker 9: Drew baby drul remains a five dream. I think that

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Speaker 9: it's regardless of why the prices are simply because you

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Speaker 9: are you know, you are in a situation, at least

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Speaker 9: for the crude oil side of things, is geology is playing.

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Speaker 8: It's pot we're going to get nngs, We're going to

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Speaker 8: get gas.

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Speaker 9: But I don't think that's going to necessarily translate into

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Speaker 9: oil production.

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Speaker 4: All right, I'm Rita.

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Speaker 5: Thank you so much for we appreciate that. I'm Rita

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Speaker 5: send founder and research director of Market Intelligence joining us.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 2: Terry Hayes, founder of Pangea Policy, joining us in the

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Speaker 2: middle of all of this. Terry, and let's just start

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Speaker 2: with what we're seeing overseas. Are we too complacent about

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Speaker 2: further action between the US around and is real? Or

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Speaker 2: do you feel like one and done? Moving on?

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Speaker 10: Good morning, Alex, I apparently am the uh am, the

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Speaker 10: person urging humility and a sea of certainty. You know,

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Speaker 10: I've heard, he written, heard and and read a lot

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Speaker 10: of people saying this morning, well I can dandalists so saying, oh,

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Speaker 10: I know exactly how this is going to go. Iran's

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Speaker 10: going to super peace and this will happen, and that happened,

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Speaker 10: and the other happened, and here's the you know, here

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Speaker 10: the the the knock on effects from China and Russia

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Speaker 10: and elsewhere. We're in the phase of this conflict where

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Speaker 10: downside economic risk is heightened, much more heightened than people think,

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Speaker 10: because the possibility for irrational action is much greater at route.

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Speaker 10: So Terry, I could go on, I will know.

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Speaker 5: It was just it seems like President Trump's policy seemed

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Speaker 5: to change a little. There's the outlook seemed to change

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Speaker 5: a little bit from you know, America first to now,

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Speaker 5: you know, really ratcheting up the stakes in Iran. You

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Speaker 5: how do you think has outlook changed.

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Speaker 10: I've never looked. I got to tell you, Paul, I've

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Speaker 10: never been the guy that thought, I think I said

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Speaker 10: this to you yesterday too. I've never been the guy

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Speaker 10: that thought that that this is some sort of a

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Speaker 10: U turn or anywhere close to it. I think Trump

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Speaker 10: is absolutely right to come in and put a fresh take,

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Speaker 10: a fresh eye on the nature of the United States

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Speaker 10: commitments and how and what's most important for America certainly,

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Speaker 10: But you know, this got taken as withdrawal all over

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Speaker 10: the world, and that was never going to happen.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 10: You know, we are. We're in it to our teeth

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Speaker 10: in Taiwan, our interests in the Middle East are are

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Speaker 10: are very very important to the national interest in the

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Speaker 10: United States. And even in a situation like Ukraine, you know,

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Speaker 10: we haven't left. They're not crazy about where we are,

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Speaker 10: but we've given him more weapons, We've signed a minerals deal.

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Speaker 10: We're not gone, and and we're not going to be

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Speaker 10: gone either. And now it's very apparent to those for

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Speaker 10: whom it wasn't obvious already that we're going to be

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Speaker 10: in it to to stay. And you know, this is

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Speaker 10: a clear situation I think where the uh, the duties

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Speaker 10: of the president O weigh the preferences of the candidate.

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Speaker 2: Well, what is in it to stay?

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Speaker 6: In it to stay?

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Speaker 2: I mean, like what what does that really entail?

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Speaker 10: Well, you know, it's you know, we have we have

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Speaker 10: continued to defend Taiwan and UH and you know, to

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Speaker 10: work our work our military and economic interests there Middle East. UH.

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Speaker 10: You know, it's not for nothing that the President made

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Speaker 10: a centerpiece of his early second term a week long

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Speaker 10: trip to the Middle East with the idea that we're

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Speaker 10: going to be using interconnected economic alliances in part to

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Speaker 10: ring fence the Iranians and the Ring then the Iranians

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Speaker 10: or client state of China, so in essence ring fence

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Speaker 10: China and Russia as well. So that's not uh, that's

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Speaker 10: not new. And it's clear now that you know, the

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Speaker 10: President would like the Europeans to stay up up to

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Speaker 10: the plate on defense. UH, and you see that from

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Speaker 10: from the NATO resolutions that they're finally getting serious about that.

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Speaker 10: But you know, even then, we haven't completely withdrawn from Ukraine,

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Speaker 10: as was widely assumed in the United States six months ago.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 10: So you know, we're we are not melting away from

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Speaker 10: our from our global responsibilities here by any stretch.

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Speaker 5: Terry you mentioned Ukraine. Does a calculus there for mister

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Speaker 5: Putin change given the actions of the US in the

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Speaker 5: in the Middle East over the weekend.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, and well, you know, good news bad news. The

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Speaker 10: increased price of oil helps him. Uh, and and and

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Speaker 10: around does something that that sparks a significant increase in

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Speaker 10: the price of oil. Obviously Putin has helped. So uh,

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Speaker 10: that's not good news for Ukraine. But but on the

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Speaker 10: other hand, what you have is increased not only increased resolution, uh,

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Speaker 10: demonstrated by the European allies, wells, the United States and you,

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Speaker 10: you and my estimation could do an awful lot more

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Speaker 10: than they than they already are, which is the precious

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Speaker 10: little but the U. But not only that, but you've

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Speaker 10: got a situation here where there's a clear commitment by

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Speaker 10: the president with a clear follow through. And that's that

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Speaker 10: alone is bad news for Putin. So uh, you know,

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Speaker 10: kind of a mixed a mixed bag overall. But I'd

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Speaker 10: say for Russia. It's overall negative.

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Speaker 2: And before you let you go, Dave palat test to

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Speaker 2: find to the House tomorrow and the Senate on Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: what do you think the biggest talking point is going

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Speaker 2: to be?

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Speaker 10: Well, you know, here's the thing. It's uh. I think

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Speaker 10: we all know this. Pal's not going to say anything

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Speaker 10: new personally. Secondly, you know, as Mike McKee just reminded

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Speaker 10: the audience, Uh, you know, the the key here with

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Speaker 10: the Fed is read every word, and he pointed out

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Speaker 10: a number of words uh in Mickey Bowman's statements that

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Speaker 10: the market isn't reading, for example. But Paul can't say

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Speaker 10: anything new in this testimony, in this twice year testimony.

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Speaker 10: While Mickey Bowman may talk about the possibility of July

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Speaker 10: doesn't mean July. Pali is certainly not going to to

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Speaker 10: endorse that or anything else. He's speaking for the entire bed.

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Speaker 10: What's going to happen on Tuesday and Wednesday really is

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Speaker 10: that Congress is going to talk over Pal's head. They

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Speaker 10: know that. Then none of that's going to happen. What

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Speaker 10: markets get out of this is is a look forward

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Speaker 10: on the meaning of the tax bill and promises for

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Speaker 10: growth and also for fiscal and why that situation is

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Speaker 10: not going to clear get cleared up anytime soon, you know,

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Speaker 10: with the actors taking their usual stances and their usual marks.

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Speaker 5: Terry, thanks as always for joining us. Always appreciate getting

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Speaker 5: your perspective there. Terry Haynes, founder of Pangaea Policy, joining

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Speaker 5: us from Rhington d C. Via that zoom thing.

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