1 00:00:15,370 --> 00:00:30,290 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Lady Sale was eating her last breakfast in Carbal, Afghanistan. 2 00:00:31,170 --> 00:00:33,730 Speaker 1: She'd had to burn the legs of her mahogany dining 3 00:00:33,770 --> 00:00:36,650 Speaker 1: table to cook it. That was her last remaining wood. 4 00:00:36,930 --> 00:00:40,210 Speaker 1: There wasn't much food either, but it would have to do. 5 00:00:41,330 --> 00:00:44,770 Speaker 1: The year was eighteen forty two, the sixth of January, 6 00:00:45,290 --> 00:00:47,530 Speaker 1: not the best time of year to embark on a 7 00:00:47,650 --> 00:00:51,890 Speaker 1: five day trek through the mountains. The cold was bitter, 8 00:00:52,610 --> 00:00:56,890 Speaker 1: the snow knee high. Shortly after nine in the morning, 9 00:00:57,210 --> 00:01:00,850 Speaker 1: they set out. Hundreds of British and many thousands of 10 00:01:00,930 --> 00:01:04,730 Speaker 1: Indians recruited from an India that was under British control. 11 00:01:05,610 --> 00:01:09,810 Speaker 1: There were sea pois or soldiers, and the camp followers, civilians, 12 00:01:10,010 --> 00:01:15,010 Speaker 1: wives and children. The British lead troops had occupied Afghanistan 13 00:01:15,170 --> 00:01:18,730 Speaker 1: for three years. It had been clear for weeks now 14 00:01:18,930 --> 00:01:21,650 Speaker 1: that they'd had to leave their base in Carbal. It 15 00:01:21,730 --> 00:01:25,770 Speaker 1: still wasn't clear if they'd get out alive. They'd been 16 00:01:25,850 --> 00:01:29,650 Speaker 1: trying to negotiate with the various Afghan rebels who surrounded them, 17 00:01:29,850 --> 00:01:32,530 Speaker 1: both for the safe passage to the British held fort 18 00:01:32,570 --> 00:01:36,530 Speaker 1: at Jalalabad and to buy the food they so desperately needed. 19 00:01:37,370 --> 00:01:40,570 Speaker 1: The soldiers were on half rations. There was nothing at 20 00:01:40,650 --> 00:01:44,250 Speaker 1: all for the animals. The cattle chewed the bark off trees, 21 00:01:44,530 --> 00:01:48,410 Speaker 1: wrote Lady Sale in her journal, I have seen my 22 00:01:48,530 --> 00:01:54,410 Speaker 1: own riding horse snall voraciously at a cartwheel. Lady Sale's 23 00:01:54,530 --> 00:01:58,010 Speaker 1: son in law had spent the previous night waist deep 24 00:01:58,090 --> 00:02:02,490 Speaker 1: in the icy Carbal River constructing a makeshift bridge for 25 00:02:02,530 --> 00:02:06,370 Speaker 1: the convoy. This must have been a galling task because 26 00:02:06,450 --> 00:02:10,250 Speaker 1: he'd repeatedly told his superiors that the river could easily 27 00:02:10,290 --> 00:02:15,570 Speaker 1: be forded upstream, and they told him built the bridge anyway. 28 00:02:15,930 --> 00:02:20,650 Speaker 1: As usual, every sensible proposition was overruled. Trying to get 29 00:02:20,690 --> 00:02:25,930 Speaker 1: almost twenty thousand people plus pack animals across rickety planks 30 00:02:26,010 --> 00:02:30,730 Speaker 1: between icy river banks proved slow going. As the day 31 00:02:30,770 --> 00:02:34,730 Speaker 1: dragged on, a long line of baggage carriers backed up 32 00:02:34,770 --> 00:02:38,090 Speaker 1: at the bridge. The rebels started to shoot at them. 33 00:02:38,690 --> 00:02:44,330 Speaker 1: They abandoned the baggage, and so as night fell, the 34 00:02:44,410 --> 00:02:48,530 Speaker 1: convoy had managed to cover just six miles and lose 35 00:02:48,610 --> 00:02:51,730 Speaker 1: most of their supplies. One of the few tents that 36 00:02:51,890 --> 00:02:55,730 Speaker 1: had made it through was chivalrously pitched over. Lady Sale, 37 00:02:56,090 --> 00:03:01,890 Speaker 1: her pregnant daughter, and her exhausted son in law at daylight, 38 00:03:02,370 --> 00:03:07,810 Speaker 1: we found several men frozen to death, hungry and frostbitten. 39 00:03:08,490 --> 00:03:16,410 Speaker 1: The survivor as trudged on straight into a carefully planned ambush. 40 00:03:17,170 --> 00:03:45,010 Speaker 1: I'm Tim Harford. You're listening to cautionary tales. We'll come 41 00:03:45,010 --> 00:03:47,970 Speaker 1: back to the story of Lady Sale and why the 42 00:03:48,050 --> 00:03:53,290 Speaker 1: bedraggled Imperial convoy was fleeing Carbal First, I want to 43 00:03:53,290 --> 00:03:58,210 Speaker 1: talk about something that may seem quite unrelated. Helicopter parenting, 44 00:03:58,890 --> 00:04:03,170 Speaker 1: dropping in to micro manage your child's life. The practice 45 00:04:03,290 --> 00:04:08,290 Speaker 1: is much mocked, but it's also widespread. Some evidence suggests 46 00:04:08,370 --> 00:04:12,410 Speaker 1: that it's not a good idea. In twenty thirteen, for example, 47 00:04:12,650 --> 00:04:17,130 Speaker 1: researchers from the University of Mary Washington in Virginia asked 48 00:04:17,250 --> 00:04:20,050 Speaker 1: college students to say whether or not they agreed with 49 00:04:20,090 --> 00:04:25,010 Speaker 1: statements such as my mother monitors my exercise schedule, or 50 00:04:25,450 --> 00:04:27,970 Speaker 1: if I'm having an issue with my roommate, my mother 51 00:04:28,010 --> 00:04:33,170 Speaker 1: would try to intervene. The more their parents were like helicopters, 52 00:04:33,170 --> 00:04:37,050 Speaker 1: constantly hovering over their child's life, the more likely the 53 00:04:37,090 --> 00:04:42,490 Speaker 1: students were to be depressed and dissatisfied. Criticism of helicopter 54 00:04:42,570 --> 00:04:46,250 Speaker 1: parenting goes back to long before the invention of the helicopter. 55 00:04:46,930 --> 00:04:50,970 Speaker 1: Charlotte Mason was a Welsh educator in the late eighteen hundreds. 56 00:04:51,570 --> 00:04:57,130 Speaker 1: Her writings are still studied today, especially by homeschoolers. Mason 57 00:04:57,290 --> 00:05:01,050 Speaker 1: chastised parents who think they have to organize every moment 58 00:05:01,250 --> 00:05:06,570 Speaker 1: of their children's lives. Fussy and restless, she called them. 59 00:05:06,770 --> 00:05:10,130 Speaker 1: Let them choose their own friends, Mason and said, and 60 00:05:10,290 --> 00:05:13,650 Speaker 1: form their own opinions and spend their own pocket money. 61 00:05:14,290 --> 00:05:17,090 Speaker 1: Don't repeatedly remind them to do the things you've asked 62 00:05:17,090 --> 00:05:20,410 Speaker 1: them to do. Instead, let them choose to fail to 63 00:05:20,410 --> 00:05:22,970 Speaker 1: do those things, as long as you then make them 64 00:05:22,970 --> 00:05:29,170 Speaker 1: suffer the consequences. When Charlotte Mason wanted a memorable phrase 65 00:05:29,250 --> 00:05:32,210 Speaker 1: to sum up this approach, she reached for one that 66 00:05:32,290 --> 00:05:35,530 Speaker 1: had suddenly become popular in the British discourse of the 67 00:05:35,570 --> 00:05:40,170 Speaker 1: eighteen sixties. I wish to bring before parents and teachers 68 00:05:40,210 --> 00:05:47,770 Speaker 1: the subject of masterly inactivity. Masterly inactivity. It's a lovely 69 00:05:47,770 --> 00:05:58,690 Speaker 1: phrase and a surprisingly useful concept. As we'll see, Afghanistan 70 00:05:58,770 --> 00:06:02,410 Speaker 1: in the eighteen thirties was not an easy place to rule. 71 00:06:03,290 --> 00:06:09,930 Speaker 1: Pushte hartepe yek padishah nishast Behind every hill, Look there 72 00:06:10,050 --> 00:06:15,290 Speaker 1: sits an emperor, so many competing tribal leaders had to 73 00:06:15,290 --> 00:06:20,090 Speaker 1: be kept happy or at least quiescent. But Dost Mohammad 74 00:06:20,170 --> 00:06:24,330 Speaker 1: Khan was proving remarkably adept at it. He was also, 75 00:06:24,650 --> 00:06:28,050 Speaker 1: or so he thought, on friendly terms with Britain, the 76 00:06:28,130 --> 00:06:32,450 Speaker 1: colonial power that in effect governed neighboring India through the 77 00:06:32,450 --> 00:06:36,730 Speaker 1: British East India Company. At any rate, Dost Mohammad had 78 00:06:36,810 --> 00:06:40,090 Speaker 1: hit it off with Britton's man in Carbal, the charming 79 00:06:40,130 --> 00:06:45,330 Speaker 1: and brilliant Scotsman, thirty four year old Alexander Burns. Carbal 80 00:06:45,530 --> 00:06:48,930 Speaker 1: was thriving. Its Grand Bazaar was the commercial hub of 81 00:06:49,010 --> 00:06:52,290 Speaker 1: Central Asia. You could buy anything from spices to silk, 82 00:06:52,650 --> 00:06:57,490 Speaker 1: furs to fine porcelain. Carbal was diverse. Traders from Hindu 83 00:06:57,570 --> 00:07:02,850 Speaker 1: and Jewish minorities felt welcome and secure. Alexander Burns was 84 00:07:02,890 --> 00:07:06,290 Speaker 1: impressed by how skillfully Dost Mohammad was running the country. 85 00:07:06,930 --> 00:07:10,690 Speaker 1: The peasant rejoices at the absence of tyranny, the citizen 86 00:07:10,810 --> 00:07:13,530 Speaker 1: at the safety of his home, the merchant at the 87 00:07:13,610 --> 00:07:16,330 Speaker 1: equity of the decisions and the protection of his property, 88 00:07:16,650 --> 00:07:19,130 Speaker 1: and the soldier at the regular manner in which his 89 00:07:19,250 --> 00:07:22,730 Speaker 1: arrears are discharged. A man and power can have no 90 00:07:22,890 --> 00:07:27,930 Speaker 1: higher priest. So imagine the outrage when Afghans learned that 91 00:07:28,090 --> 00:07:33,330 Speaker 1: Britain was invading their land to oust Dost Muhammad and 92 00:07:33,490 --> 00:07:39,010 Speaker 1: Alexander Burns was riding with the invading troops. Burns was 93 00:07:39,130 --> 00:07:46,250 Speaker 1: cast as Namakhram, a traitor literally impure salt. In the 94 00:07:46,370 --> 00:07:50,290 Speaker 1: histories told by Afghan poets, Burns does not come out 95 00:07:50,330 --> 00:07:55,730 Speaker 1: well on the outside. He seems a man, but inside 96 00:07:56,210 --> 00:07:59,970 Speaker 1: he is the very devil. To be fair to Burns, 97 00:08:00,010 --> 00:08:03,890 Speaker 1: he had tried. Russia was trying to muscle in on 98 00:08:04,010 --> 00:08:09,890 Speaker 1: Central Asia, threatening Britain's influence in the region. Burns repeatedly 99 00:08:09,930 --> 00:08:13,330 Speaker 1: begged his political masters leave this to me. I can 100 00:08:13,410 --> 00:08:17,890 Speaker 1: handle it. Let me work with Dost Mohammad. But all 101 00:08:17,930 --> 00:08:21,290 Speaker 1: of Burns's charm and brilliance couldn't make up for his 102 00:08:21,610 --> 00:08:26,730 Speaker 1: unforgivable youth. Who was this upstart questioning the received wisdom 103 00:08:26,770 --> 00:08:32,650 Speaker 1: of Britain's most senior experts on Afghan affairs, Those senior 104 00:08:32,730 --> 00:08:38,690 Speaker 1: experts had admittedly never actually been to Afghanistan. Still, they 105 00:08:38,690 --> 00:08:41,770 Speaker 1: were sure they knew exactly what the Afghan people wanted, 106 00:08:42,330 --> 00:08:45,730 Speaker 1: the reinstatement of their former king, who had been deposed 107 00:08:45,730 --> 00:08:49,730 Speaker 1: by relatives of Dost Mohammad some three decades earlier, and 108 00:08:49,970 --> 00:08:53,490 Speaker 1: had since been living in exile as a guest of 109 00:08:53,530 --> 00:08:57,970 Speaker 1: the British East India Company. From their far away desks, 110 00:08:58,250 --> 00:09:01,610 Speaker 1: the experts hatched a dramatic plan to deal with the 111 00:09:01,690 --> 00:09:05,890 Speaker 1: Russian threat dead invade Afghanistan to put the former king 112 00:09:05,970 --> 00:09:10,610 Speaker 1: back on the throne, where he'd rule gratefully in Britain's interests. 113 00:09:13,290 --> 00:09:17,010 Speaker 1: The story of the eighteen thirty nine invasion is told 114 00:09:17,010 --> 00:09:21,930 Speaker 1: in William Dalrymple's masterful book Return of a King. As 115 00:09:21,970 --> 00:09:26,810 Speaker 1: the British and Indian army marched through Afghanistan, it dawned 116 00:09:26,890 --> 00:09:30,930 Speaker 1: on the senior officers that Afghans had not, after all 117 00:09:31,570 --> 00:09:36,890 Speaker 1: been hankering after their former king, Alexander Burns was exasperated. 118 00:09:37,090 --> 00:09:40,890 Speaker 1: He tried to tell them, but he was also loyal, 119 00:09:41,610 --> 00:09:44,730 Speaker 1: or maybe just ambitious. He was sent ahead of the 120 00:09:44,770 --> 00:09:47,850 Speaker 1: troops to try to smooth their path with local leaders. 121 00:09:48,690 --> 00:09:52,210 Speaker 1: On hearing about the size of the advancing army, one 122 00:09:52,250 --> 00:09:56,490 Speaker 1: such leader told him, you can easily replaced us to Hummed, 123 00:09:56,810 --> 00:10:00,210 Speaker 1: but you will never win over the Avar Niche. You 124 00:10:00,290 --> 00:10:03,210 Speaker 1: have brought an army into the country. How do you 125 00:10:03,290 --> 00:10:08,610 Speaker 1: propose to take it out again. That turned out to 126 00:10:08,650 --> 00:10:17,410 Speaker 1: be a very astute question. Cautionary tales will return after 127 00:10:17,450 --> 00:10:26,610 Speaker 1: this message. The British took action in Afghanistan. With hindsight, 128 00:10:27,170 --> 00:10:30,210 Speaker 1: they should have left it alone. That's an obvious enough 129 00:10:30,250 --> 00:10:34,930 Speaker 1: point from our modern perspective, but colonial invasions are by 130 00:10:35,010 --> 00:10:39,650 Speaker 1: no means the only situation we're doing less achieves more. 131 00:10:40,690 --> 00:10:42,810 Speaker 1: I've had a bad throat for a couple of days. 132 00:10:42,850 --> 00:10:46,330 Speaker 1: It happens every year. They usually give me zitherum ax 133 00:10:46,410 --> 00:10:50,770 Speaker 1: and it goes away. Let me see your throat looks normal. 134 00:10:51,170 --> 00:10:54,450 Speaker 1: It's very unlikely that you have stripped throat. I'll take 135 00:10:54,570 --> 00:10:56,690 Speaker 1: u s what, but it will likely be negative. Can 136 00:10:56,730 --> 00:10:59,330 Speaker 1: I have a prescription in the meantime? You don't need 137 00:10:59,410 --> 00:11:02,930 Speaker 1: a prescription? Why can't you just give me the prescription? 138 00:11:03,570 --> 00:11:08,730 Speaker 1: A surprising amount of medical care simply isn't necessary. A 139 00:11:08,770 --> 00:11:12,290 Speaker 1: few years ago, researchers conducted a survey of over two 140 00:11:12,410 --> 00:11:17,610 Speaker 1: thousand American physicians. On average, they secretly reckoned that one 141 00:11:17,730 --> 00:11:21,330 Speaker 1: tenth of the procedures they approved didn't actually need to 142 00:11:21,330 --> 00:11:25,650 Speaker 1: be done. Furthermore, their patients could have survived without a 143 00:11:25,690 --> 00:11:29,090 Speaker 1: fifth of the medications they were prescribed, and over a 144 00:11:29,210 --> 00:11:34,090 Speaker 1: quarter of the tests ordered were quite pointless. That adds 145 00:11:34,170 --> 00:11:38,330 Speaker 1: up to a lot of wasted time and money. What 146 00:11:38,450 --> 00:11:43,290 Speaker 1: were the doctors thinking? Sometimes they told the researchers it 147 00:11:43,370 --> 00:11:45,970 Speaker 1: was quicker to do another test than tracked down a 148 00:11:46,090 --> 00:11:51,090 Speaker 1: patient's medical records. But two motives far outweighed the others, 149 00:11:51,930 --> 00:11:55,970 Speaker 1: the fear of being sued for malpractice and a desire 150 00:11:56,010 --> 00:11:59,730 Speaker 1: to get rid of the pushy patients. That conversation about 151 00:11:59,810 --> 00:12:03,370 Speaker 1: zeromax and antibiotic came from a blog post by an 152 00:12:03,370 --> 00:12:06,850 Speaker 1: emergency room doctor in Canada, and it was shared by 153 00:12:06,850 --> 00:12:11,610 Speaker 1: the Canadian branch of an initiative called Choosing Wisely. The 154 00:12:11,690 --> 00:12:14,770 Speaker 1: aim of Choosing Wisely is to cut down on wasteful 155 00:12:14,810 --> 00:12:19,170 Speaker 1: medical spending. It produces lists of things not to do, 156 00:12:19,890 --> 00:12:25,090 Speaker 1: such as prescribing antibiotics for minor infections, viral infections, or 157 00:12:25,130 --> 00:12:30,530 Speaker 1: infections that exist only in a patient's imagination. Antibiotics are 158 00:12:30,570 --> 00:12:34,810 Speaker 1: a clear cut case. Their overuse affects us all by 159 00:12:34,890 --> 00:12:39,290 Speaker 1: speeding the growth of drug resistant bugs. But few medications 160 00:12:39,370 --> 00:12:43,090 Speaker 1: or procedures are completely free of risk, and some tests 161 00:12:43,090 --> 00:12:45,970 Speaker 1: can be a waste of time too. Say a patient 162 00:12:46,090 --> 00:12:48,450 Speaker 1: has lower back pain, they've had it for less than 163 00:12:48,490 --> 00:12:51,970 Speaker 1: six weeks and they have no other red flags. Do 164 00:12:52,010 --> 00:12:54,690 Speaker 1: you send them for a scan? It turns out to 165 00:12:54,730 --> 00:12:59,210 Speaker 1: make no difference to the patient's outcomes. Francois Mai is 166 00:12:59,250 --> 00:13:03,290 Speaker 1: an author and professor of psychiatry. He wrote about choosing 167 00:13:03,330 --> 00:13:10,090 Speaker 1: Wisely for the Canadian Medical Association Journal. Sometimes waiting and 168 00:13:10,250 --> 00:13:16,010 Speaker 1: seemingly doing nothing is the favored therapeutic modality. The favored 169 00:13:16,050 --> 00:13:21,330 Speaker 1: therapeutic modality. What Francois Mai is saying is that sometimes 170 00:13:21,490 --> 00:13:26,690 Speaker 1: the best treatment is no treatment at all, instead waiting 171 00:13:27,170 --> 00:13:31,050 Speaker 1: and watching. Ready to act, but only if you have 172 00:13:31,170 --> 00:13:36,250 Speaker 1: to make explains how he first came across this idea. 173 00:13:36,970 --> 00:13:40,490 Speaker 1: When I was a medical student, A wise old professor 174 00:13:40,690 --> 00:13:46,170 Speaker 1: introduced me to the treatment concept of masterly inactivity. So 175 00:13:46,770 --> 00:13:56,250 Speaker 1: there it is again, masterly inactivity. It's eighteen thirty nine. 176 00:13:56,730 --> 00:14:01,330 Speaker 1: A huge army of British and Indians is marching on Carbal. 177 00:14:02,250 --> 00:14:07,210 Speaker 1: The Afghan leader Dost Mohammad sees that the cause is hopeless. 178 00:14:07,250 --> 00:14:11,490 Speaker 1: Soon the old king is duly reinstalled. But while Dost 179 00:14:11,610 --> 00:14:15,650 Speaker 1: Muhammad had painstakingly earned the respect and goodwill of the 180 00:14:15,690 --> 00:14:20,770 Speaker 1: many tribal factions, those emperors behind every Hillock. The returned 181 00:14:20,850 --> 00:14:24,890 Speaker 1: king was seen as Britain's puppet. He relied on British 182 00:14:24,970 --> 00:14:29,090 Speaker 1: largesse and the occupying troops to keep everyone in line. 183 00:14:29,970 --> 00:14:33,090 Speaker 1: It was clear that the king wouldn't last if the 184 00:14:33,130 --> 00:14:38,210 Speaker 1: British troops withdrew, so they stayed. Some of the officers 185 00:14:38,250 --> 00:14:42,250 Speaker 1: had their families joined them. Lady Sail arrived in Carbal 186 00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:46,050 Speaker 1: with a grand piano, a marriageable daughter, and the collection 187 00:14:46,090 --> 00:14:50,890 Speaker 1: of seeds. My sweet peas and geraniums are much admired 188 00:14:51,410 --> 00:14:56,370 Speaker 1: in the kitchen garden. The potatoes especially fry. But the 189 00:14:56,530 --> 00:15:02,090 Speaker 1: cost of occupying Afghanistan was ruined us. The British East 190 00:15:02,090 --> 00:15:06,290 Speaker 1: India Company made tidy profits from tea and opium, but 191 00:15:06,610 --> 00:15:11,810 Speaker 1: those prophets were all swallowed up and more, and Afghans 192 00:15:11,850 --> 00:15:15,810 Speaker 1: were becoming more and more appalled at the liberties taken 193 00:15:15,890 --> 00:15:20,250 Speaker 1: by the Firangis the foreigners. One complained to the King 194 00:15:20,370 --> 00:15:25,050 Speaker 1: that female prostitutes are publicly day and night, carried on 195 00:15:25,170 --> 00:15:28,730 Speaker 1: horseback into the English camp. The King took it up 196 00:15:28,770 --> 00:15:33,730 Speaker 1: with the top British envoy, who unwisely waived the warrior away. 197 00:15:34,330 --> 00:15:38,170 Speaker 1: If we stopped the soldiers having sex, the poor boys 198 00:15:38,170 --> 00:15:43,370 Speaker 1: will fall quite ill. One man was acquiring a particularly 199 00:15:43,450 --> 00:15:50,330 Speaker 1: saucy reputation, the Envoy's deputy, Alexander Burns, the very devil himself. 200 00:15:51,210 --> 00:15:55,570 Speaker 1: Burns wasn't just a diplomatic charmer. He charmed the ladies too. 201 00:15:55,890 --> 00:16:00,610 Speaker 1: As one local writer described in his Private Courts, it 202 00:16:00,730 --> 00:16:04,370 Speaker 1: with decabath with his avrandmistress in the hot water of 203 00:16:04,570 --> 00:16:08,370 Speaker 1: lust and pleasure, as the two rubbed each other down 204 00:16:08,450 --> 00:16:12,610 Speaker 1: with the flans of giddy joy and the talk of intimacy. 205 00:16:14,650 --> 00:16:18,570 Speaker 1: Have a care Alexander Burns. Next to the flannels of 206 00:16:18,650 --> 00:16:22,330 Speaker 1: giddy joy and the talk of intimacy lies the tinder 207 00:16:22,410 --> 00:16:27,410 Speaker 1: of bad feeling. And in November eighteen forty one, something 208 00:16:27,450 --> 00:16:31,650 Speaker 1: happened to put a spark to that tinder. Some say 209 00:16:31,730 --> 00:16:36,210 Speaker 1: Burns seduced someone he shouldn't have, offending a local powerbroker. 210 00:16:37,050 --> 00:16:41,650 Speaker 1: Whatever the reason, a mob descended on burns house. He 211 00:16:41,730 --> 00:16:44,810 Speaker 1: sent a messenger to ask what they wanted. They killed 212 00:16:44,890 --> 00:16:49,010 Speaker 1: the messenger, stormed burns compound and hacked him to death. 213 00:16:50,050 --> 00:16:53,530 Speaker 1: The young Scott's dismembered body was left in the street 214 00:16:53,890 --> 00:17:00,570 Speaker 1: for the dogs to eat. Clearly the British lead forces 215 00:17:00,650 --> 00:17:04,290 Speaker 1: couldn't stay in Carbon Now Afghan rebels cut off the 216 00:17:04,330 --> 00:17:08,210 Speaker 1: camp's food supplies. That's why Lady Sales riding horse was 217 00:17:08,290 --> 00:17:12,370 Speaker 1: gnawing at a cartwheel. The British envoy tried to negotiate 218 00:17:12,450 --> 00:17:16,810 Speaker 1: for safe passage, but he clumsily doubled crossed the leaders 219 00:17:16,810 --> 00:17:20,410 Speaker 1: of rival factions in the rebellion, a sub diffuge that 220 00:17:20,650 --> 00:17:23,570 Speaker 1: ended with the swish of a sword, a sickening thunk, 221 00:17:24,410 --> 00:17:27,450 Speaker 1: and in the words of one young officer who witnessed it, 222 00:17:28,210 --> 00:17:32,890 Speaker 1: the British Envoy's head was whereas heels had been. Consternation 223 00:17:33,090 --> 00:17:38,370 Speaker 1: and horror depicted on his countenance after that execution, the 224 00:17:38,490 --> 00:17:43,810 Speaker 1: incompetent retreat, the unnecessary bridge, the long delay, the abandoned baggage, 225 00:17:43,970 --> 00:17:49,770 Speaker 1: the frozen night, the ambush. I had fortunately only one 226 00:17:49,890 --> 00:17:53,170 Speaker 1: bullet in my arm. The party that fired on us 227 00:17:53,170 --> 00:17:55,890 Speaker 1: were not above fifty yards from us, and we owed 228 00:17:55,890 --> 00:17:58,610 Speaker 1: our escaped to urging our horses on as fast as 229 00:17:58,610 --> 00:18:01,330 Speaker 1: they could go over a road where at any other 230 00:18:01,330 --> 00:18:05,490 Speaker 1: time we sort have walked our horses very carefully. Lady 231 00:18:05,530 --> 00:18:09,530 Speaker 1: Sayle's son in law was not so lucky. In the 232 00:18:09,570 --> 00:18:16,130 Speaker 1: stomach he died after the ambush came the blizzard. The 233 00:18:16,250 --> 00:18:20,690 Speaker 1: convoy made just one mile's progress in a day. Living 234 00:18:20,690 --> 00:18:27,610 Speaker 1: and dead were indistinguishment, motionless, and the frozen waists. The 235 00:18:27,650 --> 00:18:31,490 Speaker 1: British met a rebel leader on the road. He said, 236 00:18:31,930 --> 00:18:35,130 Speaker 1: give me the officers, wives and children. I'll keep them 237 00:18:35,170 --> 00:18:40,770 Speaker 1: safe and warm and fed. Lady Sale and her daughter 238 00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:44,850 Speaker 1: were now among the hostages taken back. Along the route 239 00:18:44,850 --> 00:18:48,890 Speaker 1: of their attempted escape, The road was covered with awfully 240 00:18:48,970 --> 00:18:56,650 Speaker 1: mangled bodies, all naked camp followers still alive, frostbitten and starving, 241 00:18:57,570 --> 00:19:02,010 Speaker 1: some perfectly out of their senses. The sight was dreadful, 242 00:19:02,610 --> 00:19:06,890 Speaker 1: the smell of the blood sickening. It required care to 243 00:19:06,890 --> 00:19:10,850 Speaker 1: guide my horse so as not to tread upon the bodies. 244 00:19:13,330 --> 00:19:18,530 Speaker 1: Nearly twenty thousand British and Indians soldiers, camp followers, men, 245 00:19:18,650 --> 00:19:22,170 Speaker 1: women and children set off from Carbal in the knee 246 00:19:22,210 --> 00:19:26,770 Speaker 1: high snow in January eighteen forty two. Barely one in 247 00:19:26,890 --> 00:19:30,730 Speaker 1: ten survived to tell the tale of what happened. It was, 248 00:19:31,410 --> 00:19:35,050 Speaker 1: in the words of the historian William Dalrymple, a rare 249 00:19:35,250 --> 00:19:42,650 Speaker 1: moment of complete colonial humiliation. The British Empire's pride had 250 00:19:42,690 --> 00:19:46,690 Speaker 1: been stung, and they lashed out. They still had other 251 00:19:46,730 --> 00:19:51,650 Speaker 1: troops in other Afghan cities. The orders came through withdraw 252 00:19:52,090 --> 00:19:56,810 Speaker 1: via Carbal, leaving decisive proofs of the power of the 253 00:19:56,850 --> 00:20:01,730 Speaker 1: British army. There followed one of the most shameful episodes 254 00:20:01,770 --> 00:20:06,690 Speaker 1: in British colonial history. The remaining troops laid waste to villages, 255 00:20:07,210 --> 00:20:10,770 Speaker 1: killing the men and raping the women, and even taking 256 00:20:10,770 --> 00:20:14,010 Speaker 1: the time for less heinous acts of cruelty, such as 257 00:20:14,050 --> 00:20:18,370 Speaker 1: destroying the ancient fruit trees in Carbal. They plundered the 258 00:20:18,410 --> 00:20:22,970 Speaker 1: shops and dynamited the grand bazaar that wants diverse and 259 00:20:23,090 --> 00:20:27,730 Speaker 1: thriving hub of commerce. As the Afghan writer Mirza Atta 260 00:20:27,890 --> 00:20:31,490 Speaker 1: put it, for all the treasure they expended and for 261 00:20:31,570 --> 00:20:35,450 Speaker 1: all the lives they sacrificed, the only result was ruin 262 00:20:36,010 --> 00:20:55,570 Speaker 1: and disgrace. Cautionary tales will return. Just a quarter century later, 263 00:20:56,090 --> 00:21:01,330 Speaker 1: in eighteen sixty seven, the drumbeats of war were sounding 264 00:21:01,370 --> 00:21:06,570 Speaker 1: again once more. British foreign policy experts were worried about 265 00:21:06,650 --> 00:21:10,450 Speaker 1: Russian ambitions in Central Asia, and the British military were 266 00:21:10,530 --> 00:21:14,810 Speaker 1: gung ho. But for now, at least, there was a 267 00:21:14,890 --> 00:21:19,330 Speaker 1: cautious man in charge of that decision. Britain had appointed 268 00:21:19,370 --> 00:21:24,370 Speaker 1: as India's Governor General, a man called John Lawrence. He 269 00:21:24,490 --> 00:21:27,530 Speaker 1: had his own views on the Afghans. I am for 270 00:21:27,610 --> 00:21:32,050 Speaker 1: letting them alone to adjust to their own affairs. What 271 00:21:32,250 --> 00:21:37,970 Speaker 1: you mean do nothing? Yes, but that didn't mean indifference 272 00:21:38,290 --> 00:21:42,690 Speaker 1: as some critics assumed. Remember how the physician Francois may 273 00:21:42,810 --> 00:21:48,250 Speaker 1: put it waiting and seemingly doing nothing. John Lawrence asked 274 00:21:48,250 --> 00:21:51,610 Speaker 1: a subordinate to write an article explaining that he had 275 00:21:51,730 --> 00:21:54,650 Speaker 1: his eye on things and he'd act if he had to, 276 00:21:55,330 --> 00:21:59,450 Speaker 1: but not before The article was published in the Edinburgh Review, 277 00:22:00,010 --> 00:22:03,810 Speaker 1: and it ran to some forty seven pages. Within those 278 00:22:03,850 --> 00:22:08,010 Speaker 1: pages were two words that caught on as a description 279 00:22:08,050 --> 00:22:12,930 Speaker 1: of Lawrence's approach. You know what's coming. Those words were 280 00:22:13,930 --> 00:22:25,890 Speaker 1: masterly inactivity. It's a challenge for doctors to practice masterly inactivity, 281 00:22:26,410 --> 00:22:31,650 Speaker 1: and the Canadian physician Francois Mai explains why many patients 282 00:22:31,690 --> 00:22:35,250 Speaker 1: demand that something, anything, be done to ease their complaint. 283 00:22:35,850 --> 00:22:39,490 Speaker 1: They believe that action, any action, is better than waiting 284 00:22:39,530 --> 00:22:42,090 Speaker 1: for the bodies built in remedies to do their bit. 285 00:22:43,210 --> 00:22:46,650 Speaker 1: Those lists of things not to do from the Choosing 286 00:22:46,690 --> 00:22:50,890 Speaker 1: Wisely initiative are intended to help doctors to have those 287 00:22:50,930 --> 00:22:56,170 Speaker 1: difficult conversations. Political leaders too often face demands to do 288 00:22:56,330 --> 00:23:00,290 Speaker 1: something about a perceived threat, and that often leads to 289 00:23:00,330 --> 00:23:04,690 Speaker 1: action that's rushed and ill conceived. There's an old joke 290 00:23:04,730 --> 00:23:10,890 Speaker 1: about politicians logic, we must do something. This is something, therefore, 291 00:23:11,090 --> 00:23:15,370 Speaker 1: we must do this. Behavioral economists call this an example 292 00:23:15,410 --> 00:23:20,250 Speaker 1: of action bias. In some situations, we seem to feel 293 00:23:20,450 --> 00:23:24,610 Speaker 1: compelled to take action even if there's no real evidence 294 00:23:24,650 --> 00:23:29,290 Speaker 1: that action will help. Perhaps the purest example of action 295 00:23:29,330 --> 00:23:33,290 Speaker 1: bias is seen in soccer goalkeepers facing a penalty kick. 296 00:23:34,050 --> 00:23:37,330 Speaker 1: The goalkeeper tends to dive either left or right a 297 00:23:37,530 --> 00:23:41,570 Speaker 1: split second before the penalty taker kicks the ball. The 298 00:23:41,690 --> 00:23:44,690 Speaker 1: thinking is that if they've correctly guessed which side the 299 00:23:44,730 --> 00:23:48,050 Speaker 1: striker will aim for, that split second will give them 300 00:23:48,090 --> 00:23:50,610 Speaker 1: more chance of reaching the ball if it goes near 301 00:23:50,650 --> 00:23:54,570 Speaker 1: the edge of the goal. But penalties are often kicked 302 00:23:54,770 --> 00:23:57,570 Speaker 1: nearer the middle of the goal, and studies show that 303 00:23:57,610 --> 00:24:00,650 Speaker 1: if the goalkeepers stood still and waited to see where 304 00:24:00,650 --> 00:24:04,930 Speaker 1: the ball was heading, they'd say more penalties. So why 305 00:24:04,930 --> 00:24:10,250 Speaker 1: don't they? Presumably because soccer fans are like patient patience 306 00:24:10,850 --> 00:24:17,530 Speaker 1: or anxious voters. They expect action. Seemingly doing nothing, you 307 00:24:17,610 --> 00:24:24,650 Speaker 1: can take a lot of courage, Sir Stafford Northcott was 308 00:24:24,650 --> 00:24:28,010 Speaker 1: the British government minister in charge of India at the 309 00:24:28,050 --> 00:24:31,970 Speaker 1: time John Lawrence was its Governor General. He told the 310 00:24:32,050 --> 00:24:36,530 Speaker 1: House of Commons, the policy of Sir John Lawrence, which 311 00:24:36,610 --> 00:24:42,130 Speaker 1: has been characterized sometimes half sneeringly, I'm afraid as a 312 00:24:42,330 --> 00:24:47,850 Speaker 1: policy of masterly inactivity, is what we ought in every 313 00:24:47,850 --> 00:24:54,770 Speaker 1: way to support and strengthen them, sometimes half sneeringly. Why 314 00:24:54,810 --> 00:24:59,690 Speaker 1: the sneers well. Some of John Lawrence's more bellicose critics 315 00:25:00,090 --> 00:25:03,410 Speaker 1: thought he was too afraid to act. They thought he'd 316 00:25:03,450 --> 00:25:07,210 Speaker 1: been scarred by his family connection to the omnishambles of 317 00:25:07,250 --> 00:25:12,290 Speaker 1: the first Anglo Afghan Or remember that young officer who'd 318 00:25:12,330 --> 00:25:16,090 Speaker 1: watched in horror as the top British envoy was beheaded. 319 00:25:16,850 --> 00:25:22,010 Speaker 1: That officer was John Lawrence's brother. Other critics doubted if 320 00:25:22,090 --> 00:25:26,210 Speaker 1: Britain could do anything in Afghanistan, after all, the last 321 00:25:26,210 --> 00:25:30,690 Speaker 1: time they'd tried it had ended in humiliation. And if 322 00:25:30,730 --> 00:25:34,690 Speaker 1: in fact there's nothing you can do, your inactivity can't 323 00:25:34,730 --> 00:25:38,050 Speaker 1: be masterly, you're deluding yourself if you think that it is. 324 00:25:39,210 --> 00:25:44,130 Speaker 1: The Victorian pioneer of free range parenting, Charlotte Mason took 325 00:25:44,170 --> 00:25:48,090 Speaker 1: pains to make that point. Consider the difference between this 326 00:25:48,250 --> 00:25:52,650 Speaker 1: scenario an ice cream shop, can we get ice creams? Yes, 327 00:25:52,770 --> 00:25:57,450 Speaker 1: we can, let's treat ourselves, and this scenario an ice 328 00:25:57,450 --> 00:26:01,170 Speaker 1: cream shop, can we get ice creams? I don't think please, 329 00:26:01,970 --> 00:26:04,770 Speaker 1: It'll be dinner time sooner. I really want an ice cream. 330 00:26:05,050 --> 00:26:07,610 Speaker 1: Oh well, I suppose please? Can we get ice creams? 331 00:26:07,890 --> 00:26:13,570 Speaker 1: All right? Then? Mason describes that as the difference between 332 00:26:13,610 --> 00:26:18,650 Speaker 1: a masterly yes and an abject yes. She points out 333 00:26:18,690 --> 00:26:21,330 Speaker 1: how much better it feels to give a masterly yes 334 00:26:21,770 --> 00:26:25,210 Speaker 1: if you're eating ice cream after an abject yes. It 335 00:26:25,410 --> 00:26:29,330 Speaker 1: tastes of nagging, worry that you've incentivized more pestering in 336 00:26:29,330 --> 00:26:32,610 Speaker 1: the future. But the only way you get to give 337 00:26:32,610 --> 00:26:35,810 Speaker 1: a masterly yes is if you know that you could 338 00:26:35,810 --> 00:26:44,130 Speaker 1: have said no. So masterly inactivity has two ingredients. You 339 00:26:44,170 --> 00:26:46,930 Speaker 1: need the wisdom to judge where an activity would be 340 00:26:46,970 --> 00:26:50,650 Speaker 1: pointless or counterproductive, and you need to be sure that 341 00:26:50,690 --> 00:26:53,770 Speaker 1: you would have the ability to act if and when 342 00:26:54,210 --> 00:26:58,010 Speaker 1: you judge that the time is right. It's that second 343 00:26:58,170 --> 00:27:02,890 Speaker 1: ingredient that makes masterly inactivity such a useful idea. It's 344 00:27:02,890 --> 00:27:07,170 Speaker 1: what makes it different from ideas like benign neglect, lay 345 00:27:07,250 --> 00:27:11,770 Speaker 1: say fair or lay say allay. Those phrases imply a 346 00:27:11,850 --> 00:27:16,930 Speaker 1: realization that trying to act will always be pointless or counterproductive. 347 00:27:17,530 --> 00:27:20,410 Speaker 1: As Mason herself put it, the phrase has nothing in 348 00:27:20,490 --> 00:27:24,210 Speaker 1: common with the lazy alley attitude that comes of thinking 349 00:27:24,410 --> 00:27:27,690 Speaker 1: what's the good? There are times when that is the 350 00:27:27,810 --> 00:27:31,730 Speaker 1: right attitude. There's a much repeated story of an investment 351 00:27:31,810 --> 00:27:36,130 Speaker 1: brokerage that discovered their best performing accounts belonged to clients 352 00:27:36,130 --> 00:27:40,890 Speaker 1: who had died, because being dead, they were no longer 353 00:27:41,010 --> 00:27:45,650 Speaker 1: tempted to keep meddling with their stock portfolio. Sadly, that 354 00:27:45,730 --> 00:27:49,170 Speaker 1: story seems to be an urban myth, but it persists 355 00:27:49,530 --> 00:27:53,410 Speaker 1: because it rings true. One classic study finds that the 356 00:27:53,450 --> 00:27:57,890 Speaker 1: most active investors did significantly worse than those who simply 357 00:27:57,930 --> 00:28:02,050 Speaker 1: brought into the market and let their investments ride. If 358 00:28:02,090 --> 00:28:06,650 Speaker 1: your Warren Buffett masterly inactivity might make sense, what's your 359 00:28:06,690 --> 00:28:11,930 Speaker 1: portfolio always ready to act? For most of us, benign 360 00:28:11,930 --> 00:28:15,650 Speaker 1: neglect looks like the better option. We should just admit 361 00:28:15,730 --> 00:28:19,810 Speaker 1: that we lack the competence ever to intervene wisely. But 362 00:28:19,930 --> 00:28:23,770 Speaker 1: of course that's hardly an attitude you want from doctors 363 00:28:24,130 --> 00:28:28,530 Speaker 1: or parents, and you don't want a goalkeeper to benignly 364 00:28:28,650 --> 00:28:39,570 Speaker 1: neglect her goal. Lady Sale spent months as a hostage, 365 00:28:40,170 --> 00:28:44,650 Speaker 1: along with her widowed daughter and now a baby granddaughter too. 366 00:28:45,690 --> 00:28:49,530 Speaker 1: She said, the Afghan rebels treated them well. Honor has 367 00:28:49,570 --> 00:28:53,970 Speaker 1: been respected. It's true that we have not common comforts, 368 00:28:54,290 --> 00:28:59,970 Speaker 1: but what we denominate such are unknown to Afghan females. Eventually, 369 00:29:00,010 --> 00:29:04,930 Speaker 1: the hostages were assigned new guards, who proved to be bribeable, 370 00:29:05,650 --> 00:29:08,410 Speaker 1: especially with the news that British troops were on their way. 371 00:29:09,290 --> 00:29:13,450 Speaker 1: The guards even offered the hostages their guns. The men 372 00:29:13,530 --> 00:29:18,330 Speaker 1: were so surprised nobody rushed to take one. But one 373 00:29:18,450 --> 00:29:21,770 Speaker 1: person had her wits about her. You had better give 374 00:29:21,850 --> 00:29:26,370 Speaker 1: me one and I will leave the party. Someone else 375 00:29:26,410 --> 00:29:31,330 Speaker 1: had been held captive too. Dost Mohammed, the Afghan leader 376 00:29:31,410 --> 00:29:35,250 Speaker 1: the British had deposed. He had surrendered to British troops 377 00:29:35,250 --> 00:29:38,930 Speaker 1: and they'd let him live in India. Now they quietly 378 00:29:38,970 --> 00:29:43,170 Speaker 1: set him free. He rebuilt his power and ruled Afghanistan 379 00:29:43,210 --> 00:29:46,970 Speaker 1: again for two more decades. He was good at it, 380 00:29:47,610 --> 00:29:52,010 Speaker 1: As Alexander Burns had noticed once, Afghans would have been 381 00:29:52,010 --> 00:29:55,370 Speaker 1: far better off if Dost Mohammed had never been interrupted. 382 00:30:00,290 --> 00:30:05,010 Speaker 1: Britain eventually fell in love with a notion of masterly inactivity, 383 00:30:05,970 --> 00:30:09,010 Speaker 1: and it was certainly an improvement on the atrocities committed 384 00:30:09,130 --> 00:30:14,930 Speaker 1: by their armies, but perhaps benign neglect would have been 385 00:30:14,930 --> 00:30:26,050 Speaker 1: better all along. Key sources for this episode include William 386 00:30:26,130 --> 00:30:30,210 Speaker 1: Dalrymple's of the Return of a King, Charlotte Mason's book 387 00:30:30,370 --> 00:30:34,570 Speaker 1: School Education, and Francoire MAI's article for the Canadian Medical 388 00:30:34,570 --> 00:30:38,970 Speaker 1: Association Journal. For a full list of references, see Tim 389 00:30:39,010 --> 00:30:44,290 Speaker 1: Harford dot com. Cautionary Tales is written by me Tim 390 00:30:44,330 --> 00:30:48,410 Speaker 1: Harford with Andrew Wright. It's produced by Ryan Dilley and 391 00:30:48,530 --> 00:30:52,330 Speaker 1: Marilyn Rust. The sound design and original music are the 392 00:30:52,370 --> 00:30:57,690 Speaker 1: work of Pascal Wise. Julia Barton edited the scripts. Starring 393 00:30:57,690 --> 00:31:01,450 Speaker 1: in this series of Cautionary Tales are Helena Bonan Carter 394 00:31:01,890 --> 00:31:08,170 Speaker 1: and Geoffrey Wright, alongside Nazar Alderazzi, Ed Gochen, Melanie Gutteridge, 395 00:31:08,690 --> 00:31:14,690 Speaker 1: Rachel Handshaw, Cognor Holbrook Smith, Greg Lockett, the Siamunroe and 396 00:31:14,850 --> 00:31:18,570 Speaker 1: Rufus Wright. The show also wouldn't have been possible without 397 00:31:18,570 --> 00:31:23,490 Speaker 1: the work of Mia LaBelle, Jacob Weisberg, Hella Fane, John Schnarz, 398 00:31:23,930 --> 00:31:30,050 Speaker 1: Carlie mcgliori, Eric Sandler, Emily Rostock, Maggie Taylor, Daniella Lakhan, 399 00:31:30,410 --> 00:31:35,570 Speaker 1: and Maya Kanig. Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. 400 00:31:36,210 --> 00:31:39,210 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please remember to share, rate, 401 00:31:39,610 --> 00:31:40,290 Speaker 1: and review.