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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketch ys live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: You're in New York for last day before we have

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Speaker 2: to head back to Washington, which will be the center

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Speaker 2: of all of our attention. Scheduled half an hour from now.

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Speaker 2: I guess it's always our center of attention for Joe,

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Speaker 2: Matthew and myself, but especially when you have the President

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Speaker 2: of the United States, Donald Trump, and the richest man

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Speaker 2: in the world, Elon Musk, set to give a joint

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Speaker 2: press conference together. This could get interesting. One thirty pm

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Speaker 2: is when it's supposed to kick off. We'll see how

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Speaker 2: much we stick to that timing. But we know what

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Speaker 2: it'll be about Joe, and it's about the dough Is

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Speaker 2: X going? That's my question. He's at the White House.

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Speaker 3: I just I have big questions about the optics here

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Speaker 3: is he standing next to the desk with the President

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Speaker 3: sitting that we have podiums in the Oval Office. It's

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Speaker 3: a curious venue, what happened to wear? What hat will

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Speaker 3: he wear? And will actual questions be taken by reporters

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Speaker 3: Like you said, it's set for one pint thirty, Probably

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Speaker 3: not on time, as few things are at the White House,

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Speaker 3: no matter who seems to be living there, But when

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Speaker 3: it begins, we'll bring it to you live, of course,

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Speaker 3: right here on Bloomberg. Then we reel into the five

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Speaker 3: o'clock speech at US Steel Kayley that's being billed as

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Speaker 3: a big rally and could keep us up a little

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Speaker 3: bit later than usual tonight.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he has a tendency to speak for a while

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Speaker 2: at these kind of things. And we assume that we're

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Speaker 2: going to get more details about the US Steel nip

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Speaker 2: On partnership or deal, whatever it is, if the United

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Speaker 2: States is getting a golden share in this and we'll

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Speaker 2: still have full control over this company or not knowing that.

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Speaker 2: There does seem to have been a tone shift between

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Speaker 2: campaign President or I guess campaign Donald Trump, who said

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Speaker 2: this needs to stay in US hands, no way this

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Speaker 2: deal can go forward, versus President Trump, who is much

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Speaker 2: more open to this idea.

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Speaker 4: After the Siphius.

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Speaker 3: We've talked to Stephen Myron about this a couple of

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Speaker 3: days ago on Balance of Power and asked him about

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Speaker 3: the terminology here, and he didn't seem to care as

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Speaker 3: long as the jobs were preserved and the jobs added

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Speaker 3: the investment dollars were made. But this idea of a

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Speaker 3: golden share has got our attention, and I suspect we'll

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Speaker 3: hear about that later from the President. Joe. Doe is

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Speaker 3: watching all of this from his perch at Bloomberg, our

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Speaker 3: Metals and Mining reporter, with his eyes on us deal. Joe,

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Speaker 3: it's great to have you with us. Welcome to a

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Speaker 3: Balance of Power here on Bloomberg. Can you tell us

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Speaker 3: what you understand about the structure, because this sure looks

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Speaker 3: like a takeover at least when you look at the

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Speaker 3: dollars involved here, and not unlike the deals that had

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Speaker 3: been proposed, to Kayley's point, not favored by Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: or Joe Biden. But tonight he's going to be talking

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Speaker 3: about a partnership and a company that the US government

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Speaker 3: will help control. How does it work?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, that is the question. What is the structure

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Speaker 5: of whatever this deal is? And I think we're still

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Speaker 5: a bit in the dark. We're maybe starting to see

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Speaker 5: some bits and pieces flow out. Of course, earlier this

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Speaker 5: week one of the senators here from Pennsylvania had mentioned

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Speaker 5: the fourteen billion dollars supposedly being invested by Nippon Steel

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Speaker 5: into US steal. But I think listen, the investor class

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Speaker 5: is watching very closely. They do want to know what

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Speaker 5: this deal actually means. The golden share. Let's think of

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Speaker 5: it more like a mitigation agreement, right, that's the National

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Speaker 5: Security Agreement Golden share. I don't know if it's actually

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Speaker 5: a golden share. That might just be branding. But the

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Speaker 5: point here is what is the United States federal government

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Speaker 5: place going to be in this entire thing? Are they

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Speaker 5: going to have veto powers over how much production can

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Speaker 5: be shut down or not shut down? Are they going

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Speaker 5: to have veto powers over jobs? How many can be

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Speaker 5: cut in bad times and good times. I mean, right now,

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Speaker 5: all we're talking about is does the deal get done

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Speaker 5: or not? But after the deal is supposedly done, this

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Speaker 5: goes back to being a steel company. And steel companies

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Speaker 5: are still commodity companies that go with the ups and

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Speaker 5: downs of the market.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's very true, and of course it being a

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Speaker 2: steel company is why initially, at least President Trump like

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Speaker 2: President Biden before him, was opposed to this deal because

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Speaker 2: they said there's great national security implications and interests the

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Speaker 2: United States have in retaining its own steel production capacity.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about a different element of

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Speaker 2: the commodity space though, specifically critical minerals, Joe, because President

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Speaker 2: Trump today was talking about China not abiding by the

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Speaker 2: terms agreed to in Geneva in regard to the trade agreement,

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Speaker 2: the USTR Jamison Greer indicated that run of the big

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Speaker 2: sticking points maybe that critical minerals were not flowing in

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Speaker 2: the way that China promised they would after they restricted

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Speaker 2: them in retaliation for President Trump's very high tariffs. Do

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Speaker 2: we have a sense of the critical minerals flow, what

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Speaker 2: actually is happening?

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Speaker 5: You know, over the past two weeks, I've been in

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Speaker 5: discussions with the various people that are in this critical

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Speaker 5: mineral space, the rare earth space, and they have indicated,

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Speaker 5: you know, listen, it's not like anything drastically changed with

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Speaker 5: the new trade deal. The new trade deal was very

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Speaker 5: specific about companies that would have certain things lifted on them.

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Speaker 5: But remember the export controls that we're implemented by China.

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Speaker 5: I think this is what they're really getting out here

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Speaker 5: with these seven rarers. They're implemented the day after the

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Speaker 5: President of the United States mentioned the reciprocal tariffs. Those

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Speaker 5: export controls went on every nation, it wasn't just the

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Speaker 5: United States. So I think there's a procedural thing here

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Speaker 5: that might be under discussion with Chinese officials and US officials,

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Speaker 5: which is this isn't just a US thing, So it's

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Speaker 5: not just a specific US discussion. So right now, as

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Speaker 5: we understand, it's not clear that these export controls have

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Speaker 5: been lifted, but it's also not clear that it was

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Speaker 5: ever agreed to in the beginning that they would be

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Speaker 5: lifted in the way that the President seems to be suggesting.

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Speaker 2: All right, Joe Doe, we appreciate Bloomberg medals and mining

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Speaker 2: reporter doing God's work literally on the side of the

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Speaker 2: road in Pennsylvania where President drump will be today with

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Speaker 2: an umbrella in hand. Our audience on Bloomberg Radio is

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Speaker 2: missing how hard Joe is working for US today, surviving

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Speaker 2: the elements to cover this US deal visit that will

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Speaker 2: be happening later. We really appreciate it, but of course,

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Speaker 2: before we can get to US deal later this afternoon,

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Speaker 2: we have to get through a joint press conference between

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Speaker 2: President Trump and Elon Musk. First is scheduled to begin

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Speaker 2: just over twenty minutes from now, and we want to

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Speaker 2: get into it with our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us. Rick, of course,

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Speaker 2: is a Stone Court Capital partner in Republican strategist. Genie

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Speaker 2: a Democratic analyst and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center

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Speaker 2: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. His days

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Speaker 2: as a special government employee, Genie are about to be over.

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Speaker 2: They're going to talk about all of the work the

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Speaker 2: Doge has done over that time to shrink the size

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Speaker 2: of the federal government. We do know thousands of people's

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Speaker 2: lives have actually been affected by layoffs in the federal government.

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Speaker 2: But it doesn't seem that the kind of money Elon

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Speaker 2: Musk said he was going to save he got anywhere

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Speaker 2: close to actually saving. So what kind of victory lap

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Speaker 2: is this really going to be?

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Speaker 6: You know, I, Kaylee, I keep wondering, what does Donald

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Speaker 6: Trump give him for a farewell address, Like a little

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Speaker 6: chainsaw for his desk or you know, I don't know,

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Speaker 6: something like that. Coupon's for free nights at the Lincoln Bedroom,

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Speaker 6: you know, and so baffled by this because of course,

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Speaker 6: what Elon Musk is trying to do is to leave

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Speaker 6: gracefully so that he can reconstruct his image and of

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Speaker 6: course impact those sales in a positive way to have

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Speaker 6: a press conference.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 6: I don't know how this helps him rehabilitate his image.

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Speaker 6: But of course the reality of Doge is that the

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Speaker 6: two trillion and cuts promised by some calculations. People are saying, so,

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Speaker 6: let's say, by Elon musk calculation, it was close to

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Speaker 6: one hundred and six under sixty billion in the end,

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Speaker 6: But other people are saying, in fact, he cost or

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Speaker 6: Doge cost money simply because of those IRS cuts to

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Speaker 6: people that hurt the ability of the IRS to take

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Speaker 6: in income. Either way you slice it, it is far

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Speaker 6: less than he promised. And of course they have a

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Speaker 6: bill going to Congress now. But I am not convinced

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Speaker 6: Doze is going to live on beyond Elon Musk and

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Speaker 6: his chainsaw rick.

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Speaker 3: How is this going to work, chainsaw or not? This

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Speaker 3: is the oval office. The President's going to be sharing

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Speaker 3: space with a non elected official, he said, not a

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Speaker 3: world leader. Are they going to sit on the chairs

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Speaker 3: in front of the fireplace like you've got a prime

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Speaker 3: minister in town. Does he have Elon stand next to

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Speaker 3: the desk? This could be awkward.

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Speaker 8: Well, we've seen White House Oval Office events in where

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Speaker 8: Elon stands next to the desk. In fact, you know,

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Speaker 8: even X usually against the standing room only treatment inside

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Speaker 8: the Oval office. And we've seen many occasions where Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump would have people in his administration or from other

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Speaker 8: countries come into the Oval Office and stand around the

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Speaker 8: President's desk while he sat. So I think the physicality

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Speaker 8: of the same will be interesting to watch right because

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Speaker 8: I think there must be some pecking order for what

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Speaker 8: treatment you get if you're on the good list or

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Speaker 8: the bad list.

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Speaker 7: Lately, the back list.

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Speaker 8: Is when you're sitting next to one another in the

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Speaker 8: most formal posture. And he's not going to attack Elon Musk.

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Speaker 8: They'll be playful and they'll be interesting. They won't ask

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Speaker 8: answer any of the questions that you want them to.

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Speaker 8: But they see this as a long standing relationship that

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Speaker 8: will continue on. Elon Musk and the President say they'll

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Speaker 8: continue to to discuss the affairs of state. And yes,

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Speaker 8: I do think this is part of what Elon Musk

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Speaker 8: believes is his rehabilitation back to the private sector where

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Speaker 8: he can become popular again for the things that he's

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Speaker 8: done to improve the country and the world, his inventions.

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Speaker 7: And I think that would be the.

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Speaker 8: Best outcome is for the president and I stay say,

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Speaker 8: Elon Musk convents really cool things, and I'm going to

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Speaker 8: drive a Tesla and someday I'll go to Mars.

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Speaker 2: Remember when the tesla's were lined up outside the White House.

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Speaker 9: Good?

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Speaker 2: I forget showroom. Yeah, we forget the things that have

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Speaker 2: already happened in this administr Rick. I do wonder though

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Speaker 2: about your thoughts on what Genie was saying, which is

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Speaker 2: that she doesn't believe that the Doge effort lives beyond

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk. Knowing there was a Doge caucus formed in Congress,

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Speaker 2: there were lawmakers ready to take up this mantle as

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Speaker 2: well really pursue this effort to shrink the government. Does

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Speaker 2: all of that just kind of fade to the wayside.

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Speaker 8: It's been a whirlwind. In only a few months. Doge

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Speaker 8: went from basically running the entire federal government to being

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Speaker 8: an asterisk. And I think that's the real question now

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Speaker 8: is not so much the Hill because they like to

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Speaker 8: do their own thing, and the Doge Caucus, I think

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Speaker 8: was just a way to fit into the narrative with

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Speaker 8: Elon Musk being so powerful. But at the end of

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Speaker 8: the day, you do have DOGE employees. They're sitting in

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Speaker 8: these agencies. They are now under the thumbs of the

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Speaker 8: cabinet secretaries, which happened even while Elon was there. And

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Speaker 8: yet we do see active efforts on the part of

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Speaker 8: this administration to implement it reforms, including a very big

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Speaker 8: on track for Pallenteer brought in by Doge to basically

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Speaker 8: start unifying databases throughout the government. So if you blink,

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Speaker 8: you might miss it. But the reality is there is

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Speaker 8: a pretty significant effort underway that could substantially change things

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Speaker 8: like privacy and government access to your data and the

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Speaker 8: integration of data through different databases.

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Speaker 7: That is going to be talked about for quite some time.

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Speaker 3: What does Elon Musk have really to celebrate when it

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Speaker 3: comes to the doughs today, Genie, will it be cutting spending?

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Speaker 3: Because the promise was two trillion dollars on the way

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Speaker 3: in and it looks like sixteen billion on the way out.

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Speaker 3: When you consider the wall of receipts, or will it

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Speaker 3: be the fact that he took the chainsaw or the

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Speaker 3: proverbial sledgehammer and started to destroy agencies like USAID, which

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Speaker 3: was part of the aim of this administration.

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Speaker 6: You know, I think he is going to try to

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Speaker 6: celebrate something that I don't I think deserves celebrating. And

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Speaker 6: I think you just heard it in Rick's answer. The

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Speaker 6: promise was the two trillion in cuts you just talked about, Joe.

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Speaker 6: The reality is far less, maybe two or three percent.

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Speaker 6: Even again some people saying it may cost taxpayers to

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Speaker 6: have doze in there, But what this is going to

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Speaker 6: cost us in addition to money, is issues of privacy

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Speaker 6: and the contract that Rick was just talking about is

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Speaker 6: a very good example. We don't know how this turns

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Speaker 6: out at the end, but the outcome of this, I

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Speaker 6: don't think is going to be known as it pertains

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Speaker 6: to our rights and liberties and for a very long time.

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Speaker 6: And what's frustrating and fascinating about this. At the same time,

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Speaker 6: under a GOP that has long been committed to a

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Speaker 6: smaller federal government, they opened the door to private company

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Speaker 6: to go in and take away some of the most

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Speaker 6: valuable information that we treasure and people don't want being shared.

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Speaker 6: So I do think that is going to be likely

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Speaker 6: the legacy, but I'm not sure it's the legacy that

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Speaker 6: Elon Musk is going to celebrate. And I would also

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Speaker 6: just add that nobody is going to miss Elon Musk

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Speaker 6: more than Donald Trump, except for the Democrats. I mean,

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Speaker 6: the real losers here with him leaving are the Democrats

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Speaker 6: who have enjoyed this enormously and would like nothing else

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Speaker 6: more than for him to stay so they can continue

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Speaker 6: to beat up on him.

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Speaker 2: As he said, Yeah, Genie, what are they going to

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Speaker 2: run on in twenty twenty six if Elon Musk is

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Speaker 2: no longer a daily fixture in Washington headlines?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, you don't get it better than the

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Speaker 6: world's wealthiest man coming in to make cuts fire people,

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Speaker 6: cut cancer research, food assistance to the poor, AIDS research

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Speaker 6: age funding. I mean, it was just, you know, Taylor

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Speaker 6: made for the Democrats. They're going to miss him enormously.

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Speaker 6: They'll just have to look back wistfully at Wisconsin and

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Speaker 6: be happy and proud that they control the Supreme Court

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Speaker 6: thanks to Elon Musk.

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Speaker 3: Probably this could be one of those events. Rick Davis

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Speaker 3: where Democrats are making ads for some time, if you

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Speaker 3: were helping to prepare the President and Elon Musk to

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Speaker 3: meet the press today, to what extent do they need

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Speaker 3: to be on message?

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Speaker 7: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: Look, I mean being on message in this administration is

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Speaker 8: different than what I was taught.

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Speaker 7: How to be on message, that's for sure.

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Speaker 8: And so you know, you would want them to say

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Speaker 8: things that would actually appear in a Republican ad, not

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Speaker 8: a Democratic ad, and that.

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Speaker 7: Would require the discipline to say that.

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Speaker 8: The you know, they came to Washington, Washington to reduce

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Speaker 8: the Scott size and scope of government. It's intrusion into

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Speaker 8: your daily life, and that's what they've done. I mean,

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Speaker 8: there are ways of spinning a meteorc rise in government

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Speaker 8: and a quick exit in a most positive way. My

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Speaker 8: guess is it'll be more entertainment value, which probably will

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Speaker 8: disappoint the Democrats a little bit. But if you can

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Speaker 8: sort of dodge that TV commercial in the making situation,

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Speaker 8: I think you'd be you'd be considered very successful.

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Speaker 7: But I doubt it. I'm going south on this one.

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Speaker 8: I think I think this is going to be a

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Speaker 8: circus and it's worth tuning in to Bloomberg to watch

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Speaker 8: it happen.

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Speaker 3: Oh see, now I'm excited, Rick. Yes, indeed, we just

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Speaker 3: got our first view of the oval. They're setting up

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Speaker 3: the desk. Someone's going to be seated. That'll be Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Presumably where Elon Musk ends up is another question. Rick

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Speaker 3: Davis and Jeanie Shanzino a great panel Bloomberg Politics contributors.

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Speaker 3: We count down about ten minutes to the start of

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Speaker 3: this event. Assuming it's on time, we'll bring it to

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Speaker 3: you live here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg's TV

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Speaker 3: and radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cocle and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: We await here on Bloomberg TV and Radio the beginning

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Speaker 2: of a joint news conference between President Donald Trump and

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Speaker 2: outgoing DOGE leader Elon Musk, who is wrapping up his

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Speaker 2: time as a special government employee. This media event, of

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Speaker 2: course meant to commemorate that perhaps take a victory lab

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Speaker 2: but it also may be an opportunity for the press

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Speaker 2: to ask some questions both Elon Musk and President Trump

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Speaker 2: on undoge related issues, like maybe getting some clarity from

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Speaker 2: President Trump as to what exactly he meant when he

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Speaker 2: posted on true social this morning that China has totally

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Speaker 2: violated its agreement with US, the US, of course being us.

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Speaker 2: So much for being mister nice guy. Still looking for

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Speaker 2: clarity as to what exactly the violation China has committed.

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Speaker 2: Here is Joe, and how this factors into efforts to

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Speaker 2: advance a trade deal between the US and China.

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Speaker 3: No more mister nice guy. That's right. The markets didn't

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Speaker 3: like that message. But this also comes Kaylee, just hours

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Speaker 3: after a federal appeals court turned over the Federal Trade

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Speaker 3: Court ruling that had the markets reacting as well yesterday.

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Speaker 3: The push and pull here, the confusing headlines continue now.

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Speaker 3: The tariffs are restored, at least temporarily, and so there

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Speaker 3: are great questions about how businesses are supposed to weather

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Speaker 3: this kind of uncertainty. Of course, the same we can

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Speaker 3: ask about investors.

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Speaker 7: And I'm glad to say we're.

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Speaker 3: Joined here in New York by John Denton, the Secretary

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Speaker 3: General of the International Chamber of Commerce. Mister Secretary, it's

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Speaker 3: great to see you. Thanks for being with us here

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Speaker 3: in New York. The ICC represents over forty five million

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Speaker 3: businesses in over one hundred and seventy countries. What are

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Speaker 3: they supposed to do well?

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Speaker 4: Physical It's great to be the premium for President Trump

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Speaker 4: and elamsk PRIs conference, and we want to be sort

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Speaker 4: of zeroed in happy to participate in that discussion as well,

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Speaker 4: because the message I would be giving is the same

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Speaker 4: as giving you guys here. We've just survey the whole

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Speaker 4: of the ICC, and what we're finding is on a

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Speaker 4: you'll be surprised, uncertainty actually is attacks. So what we're

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Speaker 4: seeing on a global basis is heightened levels of uncertainty.

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Speaker 4: And in a way, the decision of the Court the

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Speaker 4: CIT yesterday and the other jurisdiction that there was a

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Speaker 4: matter herd and doesn't actually reduce the uncertainty. It actually

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Speaker 4: clouds it even further because what we're seeing now is

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Speaker 4: a lack of consistency. There will be changes in the

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Speaker 4: coherence about the frameworks that will we applied. And what

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Speaker 4: that says to business large and small is let's just

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Speaker 4: steady on. Let's take our time. Why don't we delay?

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Speaker 4: There's no cost to delay in a way. And of

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Speaker 4: course what we're seeing are things being basically kicked down

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Speaker 4: the road for another three months, which will generally mean

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Speaker 4: for another six months. And what that also means is

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Speaker 4: some thing's kicked down the road won't be picked up again.

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Speaker 4: So we are seeing that on a global basis. Of course,

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Speaker 4: there's different levels of uncertainty operating. There's a lot more

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Speaker 4: interest and uncertainty because people are much much more sort

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Speaker 4: of zeroed in here in advanced economies, in developing and

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Speaker 4: emerging economies particularly I've just been in Africa. It's clearly

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Speaker 4: probably bewilderment, not quite certain why we're being wrapped up

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Speaker 4: in this sort of stuff as well. But also you know,

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Speaker 4: we don't have the resources to worry about it. We

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Speaker 4: also have other stuff just to get done, and so

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Speaker 4: people just continue on. But what you're starting to see

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Speaker 4: basically people saying let's just not hire that additional person

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Speaker 4: or keep that open. It's interesting that the two matters,

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Speaker 4: or the matters that were actually heard in the various

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Speaker 4: courts on this issue came from small businesses. That tells

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Speaker 4: you is small businesses are really feeling this as well,

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Speaker 4: and they do not have the resources that large businesses have.

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Speaker 4: That it can't do war rooms, they don't do scenario planning.

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Speaker 4: It's just problematic. And even for large businesses, this is becoming.

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Speaker 4: This is not becoming. This is very complicated.

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Speaker 2: Well, so when you say businesses, whatever the size, are

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Speaker 2: largely just kind of in wheat and ce mode. Still,

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Speaker 2: are we s any kind of material reorientation of supply chains,

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Speaker 2: thinking about shifting their sources of supply or where they're

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Speaker 2: looking for end markets for things that they are exporting.

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Speaker 2: What kind of decisions our business is willing to make?

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Speaker 4: Well, the first thing people are looking at this, but

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Speaker 4: as they don't know yet what the final outcome will be,

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Speaker 4: a lot of it's exploratory and also to commit now

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Speaker 4: and to discover that subsequently the actual tariff that was

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Speaker 4: levied is actually unable to be levied and are going

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Speaker 4: to be repaid. It's like, let's just hold off here.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I've just been in Mexico with the business

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Speaker 4: community and government there. You know, we're working with them

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Speaker 4: saying well, hold on, we do know this with Mexico

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Speaker 4: Tariff's USMCA that anything any good that is USMCA compliant

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Speaker 4: will actually not have to penny tariffs. And we also

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Speaker 4: know as the fact that only forty nine percent of

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Speaker 4: goods from Mexico into the US are currently USMCA compliant.

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Speaker 4: But that's actually not because the goods are, it's just

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Speaker 4: the cost of compliance outweighed the benefits. They paid an

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Speaker 4: extra two and a half percent on the tariff for that,

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Speaker 4: but now they're going to go up. We're looking at, well, okay,

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Speaker 4: there are things we can do. We can actually lower

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Speaker 4: the cost of compliance. I mean, the ICC will create

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Speaker 4: a tool or apparatus to enable that to happen. So

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Speaker 4: businesses are looking with this mix of friction about how

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Speaker 4: they can work their way through it. But committing new

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Speaker 4: capital or re orienting your supply chain that becomes quite

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Speaker 4: difficult at this point in time.

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Speaker 3: You said something really interesting right off the bat that

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Speaker 3: uncertainty is a tax. We keep talking to economists or

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Speaker 3: try to drive home the point that a tariff is

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Speaker 3: a tax. So is this approach effectively a double tax

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Speaker 3: on your members?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean double tax regime. We should all try

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Speaker 4: to avoid that. But effectively, uncertainty is a tax because

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Speaker 4: what you're actually the cost of things goes up as

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Speaker 4: you delay, And of course a tariff is a tax.

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Speaker 4: I don't think there's any disputing about that. The Christian

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Speaker 4: I think people are out here who pays the tax.

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Speaker 4: The end. What we're seeing even in the US economy

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Speaker 4: is consumers are going to pay that tax. And they're

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Speaker 4: starting to pay that tax because your audiency in supply chains,

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Speaker 4: it's outaucy in retail, increases in costs, and we're seeing

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Speaker 4: the sentiment move towards inflation and repressure. So that tax

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Speaker 4: is going to come through and be felt by people.

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Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider the idea that President Trump says, whatever,

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Speaker 2: if you want to call it a tax or what

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Speaker 2: have you, it's going to bring more revenue to the US.

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Speaker 2: But the other goal of this entire thing is to

437
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 2: bring more business to the US, to have companies investing

438
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 2: in manufacturing capacity here, making things in America rather than elsewhere.

439
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 2: And I wonder what you're hearing from businesses in the

440
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 2: international community be out there desired to come to the

441
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 2: United States given this uncertainty that we're talking about.

442
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 4: Well, let me be one hundred percent clear, this is

443
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 4: the greatest economy in the world. Of course, if you're

444
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 4: a business person, you want to have a piece of this,

445
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 4: and you want to have more of it if you

446
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 4: possibly can, and you want to invest in it. I mean,

447
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 4: I'm an Australian. Australians invest heavily in the US. But

448
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 4: what we want to know what are the rules around

449
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 4: which we can actually make these allocations of significant amounts

450
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 4: of capital. If the rules are not clear, the actual

451
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 4: risk factor goes up and the cost of capital goes up.

452
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 4: We applaud one hundred percent any government seeking to improve

453
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 4: the conditions that will enable investment to actually occur. I

454
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 4: want more in Australia. I actually want more in Africa.

455
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 4: We applaud that. But the way you attract capital and

456
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 4: businesses by having clarity around what the rules are and

457
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 4: also how you enforce the contracts that you were entered into.

458
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 4: That's what we want and that I'm sure is part

459
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 4: of prison and Trump's vision.

460
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 3: Well, this is interesting and I can't imagine what it's

461
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 3: like to be in twenty twenty five in the age

462
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 3: of the second Trump administration. The Secretary General of the

463
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 3: International Chamber of Commerce, with the comments we hear about

464
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 3: global coming from not just the White House, but the

465
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 3: MAGA community, the populist community that elected him. Do you

466
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: feel like you're on an island as the face of globalism?

467
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 4: No, I mean the world is so interconnected you may

468
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 4: the way you describe it may change a little bit.

469
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 3: Is he on an island in a world of globalism?

470
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 4: Well, there's one thing that's for sure. The US is

471
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 4: one of the most connected economies in the world. So

472
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 4: the President does not sit on an island. He sits

473
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 4: on one of the most connected economies in the world.

474
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 4: And that's actually one of the great strengths of the

475
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 4: US economy. In any issue about balance of power, the

476
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 4: most connected economy will be the most powerful economy. So

477
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 4: we hope that will continue. But the reality is planes

478
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 4: still need to fly across borders. That's part of globalization.

479
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 4: Male gets delivered. You require multilateral agreements that all happens.

480
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 4: Let's not forget that the plumbing is still there, what

481
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 4: we might call it a bit different. But also there

482
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 4: is actually a fair point the President makes which I

483
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 4: think we should we actually share a Well, we need

484
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 4: to make certain there are more winners out of the

485
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 4: process of opening borders and enabling trade to take place

486
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 4: across borders. But what we also know is that this

487
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 4: has been one of the great enablers of economic development

488
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 4: in the last one hundred years. The reason we've been

489
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 4: able to move Africa a long way out of poverty

490
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 4: is because they're part of a multilateral or trading system

491
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,239
Speaker 4: that functions. The reason we've actually seen a decline in

492
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 4: poverty globally is because we actually have got rules based

493
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 4: trading systems operating. Nobody wants to see that go And

494
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 4: I'll tell you what. The US accounts for thirteen percent

495
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 4: of global trade. The eighty seven percent of the rest

496
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 4: want to keep this going, and one of our jobs

497
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 4: is to keep it going.

498
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 8: Well.

499
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: You've brought up Africa a few times now, which obviously

500
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 2: is seen as kind of a landscape of competition between

501
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: the US and China as to who can gain the

502
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,959
Speaker 2: foothold in Africa. Are you seeing evidence of companies anywhere,

503
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 2: not just in Africa, but businesses looking to reorient themselves

504
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 2: more towards China and away from the United Sea. As

505
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 2: you talk about the US being the biggest, most connected,

506
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 2: powerful economy in the world, do you see risk that

507
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 2: the US could easily see that to the second largest

508
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 2: economy correct, But I.

509
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 4: Think the reality is over the last ten twenty years

510
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 4: there's been a re orientation of trade anyway, there's a

511
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 4: lot more what's called south south trade, and of course

512
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 4: what we see now as the major trading partner for

513
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 4: a lot of even Latin American countries is actually China.

514
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 4: It's not one or two. But what's really interesting is

515
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 4: if you want functioning economies, you want a market based

516
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 4: system which is governed by a political system, which is effective.

517
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 4: Market based economies actually lead to more economic development. One

518
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 4: of the greatest calling cards for democracy is actually effective

519
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 4: market based systems. And of course the greatest alignment on

520
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 4: democracy is with countries like the US, Australia, European Union.

521
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 4: They're not with a state led economic models. So the

522
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 4: more we can encourage economic development. And frankly, the point

523
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 4: I've been making in Africa i've in honor to meet

524
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 4: with President Rudeau. I've also been in South Africa because

525
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 4: I'm part of the G twenty process, is that the

526
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 4: development assistance economic model is really diminished. Now it's got

527
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 4: to be replaced by something, and that's got to be

528
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 4: the private siktorl In model. And frankly, I think We're

529
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 4: at one with the US US administration on that as well.

530
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 3: This has been fascinating. I hope you let us know

531
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 3: when you're back in the US we should continue this conversation.

532
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 4: Thanks ch Are we being knocked off now for the.

533
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 9: Look they're going to start a little late.

534
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 7: Absolutely, Thank you so much.

535
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 2: A break, but it was great speaking with you. John Denton,

536
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 2: Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce. Here with

537
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 2: us at our global headquarters.

538
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

539
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

540
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

541
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

542
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

543
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 3: Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio satellite radio channel

544
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 3: one twenty one and on YouTube. It's a good time

545
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 3: to do this, by the way, because Joe Wisenthal is

546
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 3: coming up next to It's Bloomberg Business News Live. To

547
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,719
Speaker 3: catch our live stream from today New York. It's one

548
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 3: of the great treats of being here. Whenever I have

549
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 3: the opportunity to come to world headquarters, to come to

550
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 3: the big city, you got to get a good pastrami sandwich,

551
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 3: and you're really lucky if you get to spend some

552
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 3: time with the stalwart Joe Wisenthal, Bloomberg Executive editor for

553
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 3: Digital News. That's you have like a big title like that.

554
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 9: No, it's not, you know what actually this is? Can

555
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 9: I take this moment? Yeah, I've been like trying to

556
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 9: exercise this aspect of my bio of really hard time,

557
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 9: and I keep finding random databases where that's stuck in

558
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 9: and then it disappears. I'm just the co host of

559
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 9: the Outlaws podcasts, right, and bandleader and I'm one of

560
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 9: the singers for the country music band Lights.

561
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 7: I love that.

562
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're the telecaster in the lineup at Bloomberg.

563
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 4: That's right.

564
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 9: I'm sure the Telly someone else plays the stratas.

565
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 3: Right, fantastic. Well, it's great to see you, and I'm

566
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 3: delighted you could come in. We always learn something when

567
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 3: we spend some time with Joe. And yes, the podcast

568
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 3: is called Odd Lots, but you probably know that because

569
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: you subscribe to it. There's this idea of the taco

570
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 3: trade has fascinated a lot of us, and I wonder

571
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: if because you're not the best thing about you is

572
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 3: you don't care about a lot of the stuff that

573
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 3: we care about. You're really coming at this from the

574
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: market's perspective, so I can ask you if that's real

575
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: or not.

576
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 9: So what I would say is that it does feel

577
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 9: like every headline about trade period is like taken less

578
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 9: seriously than the last headline. But I would even include,

579
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 9: you know, the various court rulings that we've seen. So

580
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 9: for example, there was that court ruling I guess it

581
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 9: was on Wednesday night that said the tariffs were legal. Now,

582
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 9: if that had come out and say the middle of April,

583
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 9: I think that would have been this huge deal, right,

584
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 9: it would have been massive, And it was like, oh,

585
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 9: look at this whole court, and it just overturned the

586
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 9: entire thing. They got a little markt bounds that didn't

587
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 9: last that long. Yeah, and then there was another reversal

588
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 9: the night. So what I would say is that every

589
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 9: there's sort of this I'm trying to think of like

590
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 9: the analogy in science, but the sort of diminishing impulse

591
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 9: with every headline about tariffs. It's like Trump says the

592
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 9: Chinese deal is off track. It would have been a

593
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 9: huge deal I think in April. Now it's like just

594
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 9: one of the headlines.

595
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 3: Absolutely right, Yeah, so then there's some truth to this

596
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 3: boy who cried tariff thing. It does feel only run

597
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: the same place so many times.

598
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 9: It does feel like it, and it does seem like,

599
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 9: you know, if you're if the if. The message of

600
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 9: tariffs and the implied tool for negotiation is, look, we

601
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 9: are willing to take pain, to inflict pain on you

602
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 9: in order to give you some concession towards us. And

603
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 9: then each time you inflict domestic pain, and usually it's

604
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 9: expressed in the stock market pretty quickly, then you sort

605
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 9: of reverse yourself in a short period of time. I mean,

606
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 9: I just think it's you know, I'm not a I've

607
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 9: never taken a negotiation seminar or anything, but intuitively you

608
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 9: would think, okay to people on the other side of that,

609
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 9: take each one of these threats last serious.

610
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, the fact of the matter is since the pause, yeah,

611
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 3: I love the names, somebody has made a lot of money. Yeah,

612
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 3: and there's that's gonna be a big question about market

613
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 3: manipulation every time this happens as well, right, yeah, you know,

614
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 3: and you must hear from the volatility guys who are

615
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 3: in heaven right.

616
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 9: Now, someone's gonna make a lot of money, you know,

617
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 9: on the questions of market manipulation. What that even means.

618
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 9: You know, some people are very some people are are

619
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 9: very conspiratorial, right like, oh, who within the Trump administration

620
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 9: knew what it was? All?

621
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 4: Like that?

622
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 9: But all of these conspiracy theories rests on some premise

623
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 9: of internal Whitehouse communication and coordination, right, the idea that

624
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 9: there is someone besides Trump and the White House one

625
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 9: knows what's going on in Trump's mind. What strikes me

626
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 9: is very unproven the existence of this, right because you say, like, Okay,

627
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 9: I'm gonna like, but I'm gonna trade ahead of a

628
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 9: trade announcement, I must know something that before Trump is

629
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 9: going to say it. Does anyone in the Trump administration

630
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 9: know what Trump was going to say before he says it?

631
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 9: Sometimes people in the Trump administration say things and then

632
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,479
Speaker 9: he comes out and undercuts them. Yeah, a week an

633
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 9: hour later. So you know, I there's a very stranger market.

634
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 9: But I still tend to be skeptical of this idea

635
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 9: that there must be like people trading, because I'm skeptical

636
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 9: of this idea that anyone actually knows what's going to

637
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 9: happen in a meaningful way before they get a lot

638
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 9: of logic there.

639
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 7: There's a lot of logic.

640
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 3: That's going to happen again today at one thirty, about

641
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 3: an hour from right now. As we told you, we're

642
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 3: going to bring you into the Oval office for this

643
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 3: news conference with Elon Musk. It's like a good bye party,

644
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 3: I guess without the cake. His it's his last day

645
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: on the job here with one hundred and thirty day contract.

646
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 3: You know what the argument with Elon and the question

647
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,479
Speaker 3: is about conflict of interest. This guy's the richest man

648
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 3: in the world. What the heck does he care about

649
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 3: making a couple of extra dollars in the government.

650
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 4: Is that fair?

651
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 9: It's an interest, you know, there's an argument has actually

652
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 9: been used a lot to justify Way and certain people.

653
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 9: And yes, like he's already right, So.

654
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 4: Here's it's a room full of billion.

655
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a room a billionaire. You know, I've never

656
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 9: like found that to be particularly skeptical, like, oh, they're

657
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 9: all really rich, they care about making money. It's like,

658
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 9: I don't know, I don't think they got to be

659
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 9: billionaires by not caring about making money. Right, all that

660
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 9: being said, it does seem like Elon has become particularly

661
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 9: ideological in various ways. I mean, I think he's getting

662
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 9: very obsessed with the deficit over the years, and I

663
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 9: think he's like, you know, even a way.

664
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 3: You were compelled by what he said a couple of

665
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 3: days ago, this big beautiful bills.

666
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 7: And something happened.

667
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 9: And I think over the last year where he got

668
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 9: like really freaked out about just the sheer size of

669
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 9: the nation.

670
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 3: Well he got to see it up close, right, I mean.

671
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 9: Or he saw some chart that someone tweeted it and

672
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 9: I was like, oh, that's a line that's scary. I

673
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 9: mean seriously, like that could be that too. I mean,

674
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 9: the screen poisoning. It's like it comes for us all.

675
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 9: We spent too much time on the internet, right, he

676
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 9: spends a lot of time on the internet. He got

677
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 9: like really obsessed with something. You know, he seemed various

678
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 9: things seem to have happened in his life that have

679
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 9: put him into an more ideological posture than maybe he

680
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 9: once was when he was just a guy building a

681
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 9: business and trying to figure out ways to work with

682
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 9: or work around the federal government. So but you know, look,

683
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 9: it's not clear what was particularly accomplished by any measure

684
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 9: either in terms of a deficit reduction or quote making

685
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 9: the government you know, government efficiency.

686
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 4: Right, Doge.

687
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 9: So, I don't know if he feels as though he

688
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 9: has accomplished anything, or Doge as accomplished anything, but at least,

689
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 9: you know, like you said in that interview recently, I

690
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 9: guess he was with a CBS. Yeah, you know, certainly

691
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 9: on the deficit tide. He's disappointed.

692
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 3: All right, So we're going to get to do this

693
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 3: in real time with Joe Wisenthal James. Right, we have

694
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 3: headlines crossing the terminal.

695
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:28,479
Speaker 4: Right, here we go.

696
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 3: US plans wide are China tech sanctions? Here we go,

697
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 3: indeed with subsidiary crackdown. People familiar. Joe describe a bid

698
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 3: to target subsidiaries. A new rule here would cover them

699
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 3: subsidiaries of Chinese firms under US curbs. Yeah, he just

700
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 3: posted the president the Democrat inspired and controlled Congressional Budget

701
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: Office purposefully, he says, gave us an extremely low level

702
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 3: of growth, and he's complaining about the CBO as well.

703
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 3: But I want to focus on China because it's.

704
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 9: Funny said this Nshina. Even Trump can't focus on China,

705
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:03,879
Speaker 9: Isn't that the funny thing?

706
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 4: Right there?

707
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,720
Speaker 9: Like this headlines like, meanwhile, let me just exactly.

708
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 3: But yes, but the market's obsessed with China, so does

709
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 3: discount as a who hum or, do we are we

710
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 3: going to freak out here? Because we're looking like we're

711
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 3: getting down to.

712
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 9: World and down about one percent? It's not nothing.

713
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that could be any Friday in all, Yeah.

714
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 9: It could be any Friday, absolutely, And we're still so

715
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 9: far above those April lows, but you know, certainly below

716
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 9: still the highs in February. Well, I would say is

717
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 9: taken all together today, all of the headlines that we've

718
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,399
Speaker 9: seen today, Yes, now this headline, the headlines earlier about

719
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 9: things terrispacts. You know, I think it's reasonable for the

720
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 9: market to sort of again maybe reprice things lower. And

721
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 9: you know, maybe Trump wants to look tough again because

722
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 9: people are talking about the taco trade.

723
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 3: Or whateverxactly that could keep coming out angry today.

724
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,839
Speaker 9: Could that could be an element of it here? For sure,

725
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 9: that's going on.

726
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 3: So, as Joe mentioned, S and P five hundred down

727
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 3: one percent, Nasdaq is down one and a half percent.

728
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 3: Ryan Terminal user Uh just pops in to say the

729
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 3: Odd Lots podcast on Elon was amazing.

730
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 9: Many people are saying, They're all.

731
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 3: I keep hearing this. What do you make of the

732
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 3: story that the New York Times expose a today the

733
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 3: drug use the kids. Uh, that's not going to help

734
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 3: the repair tour here, the rehabilitation tour, is it?

735
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:27,959
Speaker 7: No?

736
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 9: I mean, look, the guy's got a lot on his plate.

737
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 9: I'm not surprised if his personal life.

738
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: Is a mess.

739
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, right, investor care, A.

740
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 9: Lot of people have speculated all these things for a

741
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 9: long time. Yeah, you know X theories about him.

742
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:43,959
Speaker 7: You're still fascinated by him though.

743
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 9: Right, He's a really interesting historical care. I mean, here's

744
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 9: the depressing part to me is actually I'm just saying

745
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 9: the part, you know, like there is this hope in

746
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 9: the United States that we can have some sort of

747
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 9: you know, hard tech renaissance, industrial renaissance, soveral manufacturing renaissance.

748
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 9: There is no question in my mind that Elon Musk

749
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 9: is the best avatar, so to speak, for sort of

750
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 9: American industrialization. He built one of the biggest car companies

751
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 9: in the world during the twenty tens when most tech

752
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 9: companies etcare in the US we're just focused on software.

753
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 9: It's extremely impressive. SpaceX is the most one of the

754
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 9: most impressive companies in the world, you know, his rocket

755
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 9: company whatever it's called, or sorry, the satellite coment, extremely impressive, Darling. Sure,

756
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 9: it's a little grim to my mind when I think

757
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 9: about the future of sort of industrial capacity in the

758
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 9: United States that the one individual who has clearly been

759
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 9: an extraordinary success over the last fifteen years or so

760
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 9: in the United States is a such a political lightning.

761
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 9: Bold and b seems to be having a hard time,

762
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,399
Speaker 9: you know, keeping it all together, which is understandable on

763
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 9: some level. But when you think, you know, we want

764
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 9: to have this capacity sustained decade after decade after decade. No,

765
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,399
Speaker 9: we have like one guy. We have one guy. That's

766
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 9: all right, ad we have one guy who's head who

767
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 9: his company is leading the way with respect to rockettec

768
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 9: and reusable rockets and so forth. It's a little depressing that, like,

769
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,439
Speaker 9: so much has changed on this person who's again both

770
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 9: politically and personally volatilely.

771
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 4: Salesting's point of view.

772
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 3: Now you're gonna leave me in two minutes and go

773
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 3: back to your lifestyles of the rich and famous, that's right,

774
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 3: But I'm just you know, in our remaining ninety seconds,

775
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 3: we just said a lot here, and after you leave,

776
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 3: I'm gonna get ten more headlines and he's gonna come

777
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,319
Speaker 3: out with Elon and then there's going to be a

778
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: post when he goes to the US. Is this market

779
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 3: investible or do you just back off for a while

780
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 3: until he goes to sleep.

781
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 9: Here's what I would say. Look, I don't know, and

782
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 9: no one should ever listen to my advice.

783
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 7: But I would say there's two things.

784
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 9: One it probably is you know, like you're not that

785
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 9: you're supposed to ignore all these things, right, That's what

786
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 9: every professional investor says, is that you're supposed to ignore

787
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 9: all of these things and then think long term is

788
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 9: all noise. But what I would say on top of that,

789
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 9: I don't maybe the market might be investable. Is this

790
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 9: an environment in which a business wants to make actual

791
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 9: real capital investment to be building a new factory? Do

792
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 9: you want to be expanding a headcount, et cetera. If there,

793
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 9: I think you can make more clearly the argument that

794
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 9: the answers know that there is so much uncertain to

795
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 9: be able the policy side that it's like, well why

796
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 9: not wait six months see if this smoke clears a

797
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 9: little bit before we actually make a commitment. So what

798
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 9: I would say is, I don't know about the market.

799
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 9: You're probably never really supposed to pay attention to the news.

800
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 9: You really should not be listening to the news ever,

801
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 9: and yet people do, at which we both appreciate. I

802
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 9: love this, but from a business perspective, you can understand

803
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 9: why I was like, all right, if I were like

804
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 9: thinking about, Oh, I want to build something new that's

805
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 9: going to expect to last me for years, maybe I

806
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 9: waited out a little bit.

807
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 3: I'm so glad you could come over. The great American

808
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 3: band leader Joe Wisenthal. He also co hosts a podcast

809
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,879
Speaker 3: called Odd Lots and it's a treat to spensive time

810
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 3: with just start way. Thanks for listening to the Balance

811
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 3: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't

812
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 3: already an Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

813
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 3: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

814
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 3: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot kah