WEBVTT - The Future of Weather: Part One 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:07.160 Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:15.720 Forward Thinking. Hello, and welcome to Forward Thinking, the podcast 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:17.919 that looks at the future and says, I never meant 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.400 to cause you any sorrow. I never meant to cause 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.160 you any pain. I only wanted to pump you full 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.920 of silver. Eyah died in Microwaves. I'm Joe McCormick, I'm 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:30.040 Lauren Bulck Obama, and our regular host Jonathan Strickland is 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:32.199 not with us today since he is currently in the 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:36.440 middle of the Pacific Ocean attempting to circumnavigate the globe 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:40.199 in an old timey wooden bathtub, but in his stead, 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:45.360 joining us today is our absolutely fantastic coworker, uh, former 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:47.720 co host of Stuff to Blow Your Mind, and the 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.560 new host of Stuff of Life, which you're all very 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:56.080 excited about, Julie Douglas. Howdy, Thanks for having me. Yeah, yeah, 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.160 thanks for being here. How you doing, Julie, Well, you know, 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:03.360 I'm pretty good, pretty good. I'm excited about today's topic because, 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:05.120 you know, one of my one of my flags in 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:07.319 my back pocket is a bit of a futurist flag, 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.840 is a bit of a what futurist flag that's not 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.360 one that just rolls off the tongue, is it. It's 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:16.920 kind of a inturist flag, futurist flag, futurist flag, futurist flag. No, 0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:18.959 I can't tell her you're talking about a literal flag 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:23.320 or you're just saying that you enjoy futurism topics. I 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:27.240 enjoy futurist topics, and I do have a flag. You 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:30.680 don't have flags in your back pocket proclaiming your interests. 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:34.560 Only my interest in the Soviet Union. I suppose if 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:39.560 by flags you mean cell phones, then yes, hey, we 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:41.760 should get on topic. No, today we're going to be 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:46.200 talking about weather control. Uh, the issue that has come 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:49.320 up on the video series before. Jonathan has done a 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:53.080 video about it back in January and he's blogged about 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:55.160 it a little. But I realized we've never done a 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:58.240 full podcast episode on weather control. And just so you 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:00.200 know in advance, this is going to be part one 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:02.320 of a two part episode we're going to be doing 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:05.920 on today's topic. So please after this one is over, 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:10.040 join us next time for for the exciting conclusion of 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:13.680 the future of weather control. Yeah. Also, when we came 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:15.320 to Julian said, hey, would you like to guess on 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:18.239 our show while Jonathan is out she said, she said yes, 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.239 and we were like, well, do you want to talk 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:21.839 about a thing? Is there a thing that you would 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:24.359 be interested in talking about? And you said weather control? 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:26.800 And do you want to talk about why that is? Yeah, 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:30.560 I'm reading a book by Lauren Redness. It's called Thunder 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:35.320 and Lightning Weather, Past, Present and Future. And um, some 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:38.960 of your listeners may be familiar with her past project. 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.680 It's called Radioactive Marie and Pierre Cure, A Tale of 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:48.959 Love and Fallout, Yes, which is a bit like that. 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.440 But it's it's amazing the way that she goes after 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:56.200 a topic because she really overlays a massive amount of 0:02:56.240 --> 0:03:00.400 reportage and research, um. And then she kind of takes 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:04.959 these illustrations and storytelling and history weaves them all together. 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:06.919 And she has done the very same for this book 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.239 about whether. Yeah, and it's it's a gorgeous book. I 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:12.200 mean it looks it looks like an art piece, not 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:16.079 a nonfiction title. Um. And and there's no reason why 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:18.840 those two things can't exist at the same time. Yeah, 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.080 it's kind of I was thinking about this. It's like 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:25.040 in a adult picture book, but in the very best ways. 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:28.639 You know, somebody can take that the wrong way. Absolutely 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:30.320 could take it the wrong way, But I don't mean 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:31.920 it that way. What I mean to say is that 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:36.520 she she does exhaustive research and in reporting, like I said, 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:38.440 but she also kind of slips in all of the 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:42.600 scientific understanding there and then takes it to another level 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:47.560 by illustrating the concepts. Yeah, Julie photocopied several pages for us, 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:51.400 and I thought it was a blaster read. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:54.880 And one of the things she covers is this idea 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:59.280 of weather control and the implications of that, and for her, 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.400 this came up as a kind of uh side issue 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.480 or complication and discussion about what we could do to 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:09.400 counteract climate change, right right. And one of the examples 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:14.800 that she covers is a technology called the strato shield. Now, 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:18.720 strato shield, doesn't it I mean it just sounds great, right, 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:20.919 You got the shot the strato shield up in the sky, 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:23.920 no worries. Yeah, But it also sounds like it could 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.920 be a medical device, do you think, Yeah, like you 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:29.960 got your pacemaker, you got your strate shield. I'm not 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.080 quite sure what it does, the strato shield or the 0:04:33.120 --> 0:04:38.880 pacemaker that the internal strata shield. I like I like 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:42.159 to think that it like Colins anxiety. What would this 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:45.360 proposal do for for weather system? Well? This let me 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:48.800 I should mention that this is UM. This is from 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:55.160 Nathan Mervold's company called I believe it's called Intellectual Ventures, 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:59.000 and some of the listeners may be familiar with him. 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:02.880 UH is known for sort of what people have called, 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:07.320 you know, patent trolling. We've talked about Mervold on the 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:13.080 podcast before. He's he does kind of eye catching technology proposals. 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:18.440 Did Mirvold have something to do with the mosquito laser? Oh? 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:20.400 So I'm glad that we could return to this topic 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.080 to get today. Even though we're not talking directly about insects, 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:25.360 we still managed to tweak it in there. Yeah, if 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.160 you want to hear about the mosquito laser, we did 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:29.720 a podcast about that a while ago, something about our 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.520 war against mosquitoes. You can look it up on the website. Yeah. 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:35.359 And I mean, and that's not surprising, right because the 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:40.039 company holds patents, so probability was you know, a couple 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.760 of them are going to be great ideas and possibly 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.360 pan out, and you know, obviously they're in it for that. UM, 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:50.240 but what they're interested in terms of global warming and 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:55.400 climate change is solar radiation management to try to counter 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.640 the effects of global warming. So essentially what we're talking 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:02.400 about is bouncy some of the sunlight back into space 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:06.320 to prevent it from entering the atmosphere and then warming 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:10.279 the atmosphere globally. So this would fall under the category 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:14.039 of things we would call geoengineering solutions to global warming 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.880 that say like, Okay, look, we're just not going to 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.279 get people to stop polluting. Everybody's going to keep putting 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:22.560 carbon in the atmosphere. There's nothing we can do about it. 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:24.839 So instead, we've just got to find a way to 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:29.880 counteract the warming with some kind of massive engineering projects. 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:32.640 It's saying that essentially it's easier to stop the sun 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:38.880 than it is to get people to not drive as much. Yeah, yes, 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:42.640 which is why geo engineering has gained in popularity as 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:45.760 a field right over over the last couple of decades. 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:49.200 But it's kind of a scary concept, didn't it. It 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:53.080 is um because what you're essentially talking about is an 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:56.480 eighteen mile high host to the sky held up by 0:06:56.520 --> 0:07:03.920 balloons like a string of pearls, pumps oud aerosolized sulfur dioxide. 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.120 So these particles would then act as a shield and 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:10.880 reflect back the sunlight back into space and then help 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:14.600 ameliorate some of the warming. Okay, it's a Mr. Burns 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.480 kind of idea. It's putting an umbrella over the Earth 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:20.160 to kind of help protect and block out some of 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.000 that hated sunlight. Exactly. I can even hear him saying, 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.920 like that sunlight, Well, what does he say? He's like, 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:30.240 for years men has dreamed of destroying the sun, and 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:34.520 I have the perfect technology strata shield. So I mean, 0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:38.040 if you think about it, it actually is a very 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:41.320 elegant solution, Okay, because we are talking about something that 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:44.680 wid wise is like it's no bigger than a garden hose, 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:48.440 and it's really cheap um. So you've got some pros there. 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:53.680 My Myra Bold also claims that the amount of particles 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:57.920 up there would not obscure or change anything measurably in 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:00.160 terms of our perception of the skuys. He's still have 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:06.720 a sparkling blue sky. Um, And you could argue that 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:11.640 this kind of device is just management of weather in earnest. 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:17.320 In other words, we're changing the chemical composition of Earth's atmosphere, 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:20.280 so why not just you know, take hold of it 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:22.280 and take responsibility for it. So this would be the 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.880 pros right. But of course, anything that has the power 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:30.600 to affect the climate on a large scale also probably 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:34.640 has the power to have some pretty devastating specific weather effects. 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:37.280 And we've talked about the difference between climate and weather 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.120 on the podcast before. I like to use the analogy 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:44.720 that climate is like a person's personality. Weather is like 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:49.559 their mood today. That's a perfect analogy. So you essentially 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.920 would be creating a kind of I don't want to 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:55.760 call it prozac, but some sort of mood altering drugs 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.960 for the atmosphere that you would have turned on forever, 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:05.520 right or definitely, because as soon as you change their circumstances, um, 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:07.840 you would have to make sure that it would continue 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:11.160 to run. Yeah. Yeah, And we don't know what effects 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:13.840 that could have on on weather patterns and you know, 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:16.440 and and the climate in general over a long period 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.160 of time, and whether whether it would be devastating or 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:22.480 helpful or more or less harmless. That there's so many 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.400 variables involved in the weather, yeah, which is in a 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:27.560 way like the problems with this are kind of a 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:30.920 microcosm of the whole topic. The problems with the whole topic, right, like, 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:33.440 how do you control something that's so wild? But the 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:39.000 biggie is that it could be used as a weapon, oh, 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:43.679 weaponized weather. Mr burns again, Well it is, yeah, weather 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:49.679 control and weaponized. Since is the classic uh mustache twirling 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:53.079 mega villain plot. You know, it's in the superhero the 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:56.120 old superhero cartoons. What is the mad scientist always build? 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:59.680 It's a weather control machine, of course it is, because why, 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:02.520 I don't know, he hates earth and he's like, yes, 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:06.079 I'll send tornadoes against you. Well, and I think it's 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.720 one of those things too, where it's like, well, well 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:11.200 you have that technology. I would like to have that 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:14.520 technology too. And I'm speaking as countries right, Like Canada 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:17.360 is all of a sudden like whoa us so close? 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.320 How about we have that too, just to ensure that, 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:23.000 you know, we could control our own weather and then 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:27.000 you know, certainly you could begin to really break some 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:31.280 havoc with that. And we do have some examples of 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:34.360 this type of warfare in history. Yeah, And I think 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:36.559 that's going to bring us to our central topic today. 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:40.000 So so throughout the podcast, we're gonna be asking essentially 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:43.800 how feasible is real technological weather control, like can we 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.520 cajole the skies to bring rain to regions of drought 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:52.240 or or dissipate tornadoes or throw tornadoes and hurricanes and 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:56.640 lightning at our enemies, uh, and and just generally play 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:59.640 gods over the weather and fur the work. Can we 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:05.040 do that without massively screwing up something somewhere else unintentionally? Yes? 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:08.320 And that that is a very good point, because I 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.480 think first we should start by looking at why exactly 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:13.440 it is we're at the mercy of the weather, Like, 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:17.520 why it's been so difficult to control the weather despite 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.480 the fact that we've got all this great technological power 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:22.640 that we can use to do other things with, you know, 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.960 big difficult projects. Why can't we just uh send a 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:30.240 hurricane going the other way or do things like that. 0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:32.920 And I think there are two main answers to this problem. 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:36.920 One of them is that weather events involve colossal amounts 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:40.880 of energy, more energy than we realize. Because you know, 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:44.120 you getta you getta some wind and some rain. You're like, well, 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.400 you know, like a truck can hit me harder than 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:51.520 the wind pushes me, so feasibly our technology should be 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:55.440 more powerful than the wind. Right, Well, but there's there's 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.560 a lot more wind than there is truck. I think 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.760 that's a very good way of doing it. I found 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:04.440 a really good answer to this question in a piece 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:09.520 written by the American meteorologist Chris Lancy. And he wrote 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:11.560 this piece for the in O. A a s. Hurricane 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:16.040 Research Division website, answering a question they apparently get a lot. 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:19.520 People are always asking why don't we just nuke the 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.280 tropical cyclones? You know there's a hurricane coming our way, 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.480 Why can't we just nuke it? We got nukes. Strangely enough, 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.440 that was one proposed use of nuclear technology that we 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:32.319 did not explore in our in our episode about Operation Plowshare. 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:34.959 Oh yeah, they they you know we're gonna dig tunnels 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:39.000 with nukes. Why can't we knw hurricanes? Lancy explains several 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.520 reasons why this is not a good idea. We we 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:44.760 will put aside for now the fact of of nuclear fallout, 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:49.600 and there's kind of obvious problems there. But but Lancy 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.920 also points out that you've just got an energy problem. 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.600 For example, he writes, a fully developed hurricane can release 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.600 heat energy at a rate of five to twenty times 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:03.120 ten to the thirteen watts and converts less than ten 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.920 percent of the heat into mechanical energy of the wind. 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.959 The heat release is equivalent to a ten megaton nuclear 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.800 bomb exploding every twenty minutes. According to the nineteen ninety 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:17.679 three World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.400 a rate of ten to the thirteen watts in nineteen 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.840 ninety a rate less than twenty of the power of 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:29.360 a hurricane. Oh, that's there's like a lot more wind 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:33.520 than truck. Say, there's a lot more wind than truck. 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.640 And furthermore so, it's not it's also not just a 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:40.520 question of how much energy you can create, because we 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.360 could just detonate a whole bunch of nuclear bombs and 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.640 that would in truth create a lot of energy. But 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.400 you kind of need to use your energy in a 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.680 particular way if you definitely want to stop a storm. 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.080 For example, Lancy says, for normal atmospheric pressure, there are 0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:01.199 about ten metric tons of air bearing down on each 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.080 square meter of surface. He's talking about in the ocean 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.880 when tropical cyclones develop. Um, he says, in the strongest 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:11.360 hurricanes there are nine as opposed to ten. To change 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:14.880 a Category five hurricane into a category to hurricane, you 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.720 would have to add about half a ton of air 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.280 for each square meter inside the eye, or a total 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.520 of a bit more than half a billion tons for 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:28.320 a twenty kilometer radius. I it's difficult to envision a 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.400 practical way of moving that much air around. So there 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:35.000 he's talking about there are specific problems of pressure that 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:38.720 affect the formation of hurricanes tropical cyclones that turn into 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.520 the hurricanes that we would want to deflect, and and 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.240 we just don't have a way of putting the pressure 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.560 where it needs to be. Well, not's assuming a constant 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:50.640 for that, right, Like it's like each hurricane is going 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:54.560 to behave that way as a category five and assuming 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:57.840 that whatever conditions that were arrived at were which were 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:02.680 an average to be present. Um. And so as you know, 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:04.680 I mean there's variables all the time. Yeah, And that 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:06.800 leads us to the other things. So number one, there's 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.960 there's a ton of energy. There's way more wind than truck. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:14.080 And number two, weather is really complex and complex in 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.960 the mathematical sense because if you ever wonder why the 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:21.320 weather forecast for today and tomorrow is, you know, it 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.320 can be wrong, but it's reasonably accurate but the ten 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.360 day forecast just gets less and less accurate as it 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:30.200 goes on and farther into the future. It's just a 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:32.800 you know, it's a dice roll pretty much. And this 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:37.080 is because weather is chaotic and mathematically complex. Weather patterns 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:41.120 are subject to tiny variations and perturbations and things like 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.800 heat and pressure, which gets amplified over time, kind of 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:48.480 like a swelling feedback loop and an amplifier. Uh yeah. 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:52.080 Forecasts work or or don't work, as the case may be, 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.960 by creating digital simulations of the current state of the 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.480 weather in a given location and then adding in data 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.520 from surrounding locations and and just kind of seeing how 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:05.080 that MUCKs everything up and making a good statistical, educated 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:09.800 guess of which muck up is the most likely based 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.440 on based on what we know about what has previously 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:16.240 happened under those kind of conditions. Um. So, you know, 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:18.880 satellite and ground data can give us a pretty good 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:22.400 idea of what's going on in a particular location at 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.440 a given moment, but at our current state of technology, 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:28.320 having all of that data almost hurts more than it helps, 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.960 because there's just so many variables interacting with each other, 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:35.360 so so basically You've got two factors that are making 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.680 prediction difficult. You've got that the number of variables and 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:43.800 the sophistication and or accuracy of the simulation software. So 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:47.160 more data is better, but it makes it harder on 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:51.360 the software. Yeah, And to revisit Landsy again from from 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:53.880 the same piece I was talking about earlier, he also 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:57.640 talks about how it's it's difficult to predict the emergence 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:02.760 of extreme weather events like hurricanes, because he says, for example, quote, 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:06.240 attacking weak tropical waves or depressions before they have a 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:10.439 chance to grow into hurricanes isn't promising either. About eighty 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.399 of these disturbances form every year in the Atlantic basin, 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:17.040 but only five become hurricanes in a typical year. And 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:19.440 so the problem is, I mean, so you can see 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:22.160 a depression start developing, but you just don't know which 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.320 ones are going to be the problem ones because of 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:29.159 these unstable effects, tiny variations get amplified over time, and 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:32.560 that turns into a big storm or a big, big, 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:35.639 big box of nothing. And either way, it's hard to 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:38.359 know in advance which it's going to be right. And 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:40.919 you can try to manipure that. You can spend tons 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.640 of energy and time and financial resources to do that, 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:49.640 but that doesn't guarantee that it's going to create an 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:52.719 outer eyewall, which it might do naturally. So it's kind 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:56.840 of like the coin. Yeah. But despite the fact that 0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:00.840 whether is both very energetic and takes a lot of 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:05.159 effort to control and very unpredictable, there have been plenty 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:07.439 of ways throughout the past and up into the present 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:10.080 that people have tried to control the weather. I would 0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:14.800 say all of them kind of strange and iffy, some 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:19.879 of them complete rubbish. Yeah. Lauren Redness has some illustrations 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:24.200 of them actually in her book, and uh, they vary 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:28.280 in nuttiness and effectiveness. Yeah. Yeah. One of the ones 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:30.800 I wanted to talk about is hale cannons. If you'll 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:33.399 ever seen these, I have not seen a hail cannon. 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:37.280 So this is generally considered complete pseudo scientific garbage. But 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:41.320 the meteorological community they don't think that there's anything to 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.720 this at all. But they are a supposed weather control 0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:47.159 device that's been used for a long time, more than 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:50.760 a hundred years, maybe a couple hundred years, goes back 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:52.919 into the you know, I found a report about it 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:58.359 from nineteen o nine, used by whom, Who's who's running 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.480 around with hail cannons. So let's say you've got a 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:06.200 vineyard or something, and you are afraid of hailstones damaging 0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:09.879 your grapes, and so you want to keep the grape safe, 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:15.800 so you employ a grapes security guard. That's a terrible 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:18.640 metaphor going nowhere. No, what you do is you get 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:22.800 this thing that looks like a giant upturned megaphone, and 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:24.800 you aim it up at the sky when there's an 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:29.119 oncoming storm that you fear may bring destructive hailstones, and 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:31.720 then you set this thing a squawk in. I want 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:35.480 to read a quote from one hail cannon manufacturer's website 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:38.280 that I found. Yes, there are manufacturers today who will 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:42.040 sell you these things, they say, quote. An explosive charge 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.960 of a setylene gas and air is fired in the 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:48.880 lower chamber of the machine. As the resulting energy passes 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:52.000 through the neck and into the cone, it develops into 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:55.520 a force that becomes a shock wave. The shock wave 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.560 clearly audible as a large whistling sound. It's got to 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.240 be great to be one of these People's name rus 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:04.960 by the way, then travels at the speed of sound. 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:07.399 I like that it's a sound that travels at the 0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:10.919 speed of sound into and through the cloud formations above, 0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:14.760 disrupting the growth phase of the hailstones. The device is 0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:18.679 repeatedly fired every four seconds over the period when the 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:22.399 storm is approaching and until it is passed through the area. 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:26.120 What would otherwise have fallen as hailstones then falls as 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:30.200 slush or rain. From everything I've read, scientists think there's 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:33.800 absolutely no good evidence that these things work. But it 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:37.520 also works via the tiger repellent method, right, because like 0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:39.720 every time you see a cloud and use it and 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:42.640 then it doesn't hail wo who proof that it works? 0:20:43.040 --> 0:20:45.919 A little confirmation bias? Yeah, yeah, And I think that 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:48.960 a lot of these methods uh prove out in that 0:20:49.680 --> 0:20:53.040 in that way, in that well, it didn't happen, So 0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:57.640 either it was never gonna happen anyway, or this totally worked. Yeah, 0:20:57.640 --> 0:20:59.760 there's always a little bit of uncertainty. Now there's a 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.720 differ technology that's been used to control weather that I 0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:06.480 do think that there it's also uncertain, but there's a 0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:10.840 little bit more to it, and that's cloud seating, right. Yeah, 0:21:10.880 --> 0:21:13.720 I mean there's evidence that it works to what extent, 0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:16.960 though is still sort of the big question mark, right, 0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:21.800 because again, the cloud formations sort of happen on their own, 0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:25.679 and so people spend a tremendous amount of time and 0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:29.360 effort to try to seed clouds. Now, I think most 0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:32.400 people are probably familiar with cloud seating from the Beijing 0:21:32.400 --> 0:21:36.800 Olympics um, which the Chinese government used to try to 0:21:36.840 --> 0:21:39.600 clear the skies before the big event. Yeah, they claimed 0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:42.080 that they had perfect weather for the opening ceremony of 0:21:42.119 --> 0:21:45.879 the Beijing Olympics because they had they had drained the 0:21:45.920 --> 0:21:49.560 clouds of all their rain and sent it on unsuspecting 0:21:49.560 --> 0:21:54.000 cities nearby, right, and cleared out all the pollution as well. 0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:58.520 But it actually historically has its roots as a practical 0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:03.840 application in Vietnam. And you mean in the Vietnam War, Yes, yes, 0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:07.399 excuse me, the Vietnam War um. But more specifically, in 0:22:07.560 --> 0:22:10.399 nineteen sixty three, there were some c i A and 0:22:10.560 --> 0:22:14.479 beds in Vietnam, and they were kind of worried about 0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:19.760 Buddhist monks who were protesting the South Vietnamese president, who 0:22:19.840 --> 0:22:23.560 was an anti communist outlet of the United States. And 0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:27.080 so while they were keeping tabs on the monks, they 0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:30.720 noticed that the monks could withstand pretty much anything including 0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:34.119 like tear tear gas and other aggressive acts toward them, 0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:37.560 but as soon as the rain would fall, they would disperse. 0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:39.840 That that kind of makes sense if you're doing a 0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:43.159 whole passive resistance thing, like if somebody is being cruel 0:22:43.200 --> 0:22:46.240 and aggressive to you, you can hang out and withstand 0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:48.720 what they're doing to you as an active you know, 0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:51.560 as an active resistance. But if it rains, I mean, 0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:54.119 that's not the enemy doing to you. Yeah, if and 0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:56.320 if you're underpants are damp, like, man, it's just time 0:22:56.359 --> 0:23:00.639 to go home. That's one of my Yeah, that's one 0:23:00.680 --> 0:23:04.520 of the creeds I lived by. So unless the sky 0:23:04.760 --> 0:23:10.680 is your oppressor, which maybe, and that's a whole other thing. Yeah, 0:23:10.760 --> 0:23:13.199 that's another episode right there. That is so what So 0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:16.200 what happened with these with these months? The ci I 0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:18.080 was like always got something to report to you there. 0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:20.520 Bill uh sons out that if you could just make 0:23:20.560 --> 0:23:22.879 it rain, we could well we could do some stuff 0:23:22.920 --> 0:23:25.840