1 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. The 5 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: main event then the United States and North Korea agreeing 6 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: to seek complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula following a 7 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: historic summit between President Donald Trump and Kim John arn 8 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 1: Yet the accord set no deadline and left the path 9 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: to disarm and undefined. The details are light, the headlines impressive. 10 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Managing editor Dan ten k George's now from Singapore. Dan. 11 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: The theatrics, the pictures, the photographs, the videos, they're all 12 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: theatric called it's what you expected. The details thought, what 13 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 1: is the detail of this agreement down, Well, there's there's 14 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: not much in terms of substance in this agreement. Most 15 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 1: of what we saw today we've seen before, and in 16 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: fact it was a lot lighter than even skeptics we're 17 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: hoping for. Um. Complete denuclearization is a term that North 18 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: Korea uses to suggest not only the removal of its 19 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 1: own nuclear weapons, but also the nuclear weapons that the 20 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: United States has in the region to protect allies South 21 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: Korea and Japan. UM, so that alone, um to just 22 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 1: that Trump didn't get too much going into it. They 23 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 1: kept talking about complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization, which is considered 24 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: the gold standard among arms control experts, and that did 25 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: not appear in the document that was signed. Do we 26 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: have an accepted definition of what the complete denuclearization of 27 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: the Korean Peninsula means for the Koreans and for what 28 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: it ultimately means for the United States as well? Because 29 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: coming against the sum there were two different definitions of 30 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: that phrase. If we have got have we got in 31 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: a great definition of that phrase now? And uh no, 32 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 1: we don't. We just have that vague term. So really, um, 33 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: what's going to happen in the next few weeks is 34 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: Suctoria State, Mike Pompeo is going to continue these negotiations 35 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 1: and um, you know, it's it's that where they're apparently 36 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 1: going to have to figure out what exactly is this 37 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: process where you're gonna have inspectors go in and dismantle 38 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,519 Speaker 1: this nuclear program. Right now, we still have no visibility 39 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: on that based on what we saw today within the ballet, 40 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 1: what did you observe in Singapore, I mean media, all 41 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: of it choreographed. It was amazing how the handshake came 42 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: off so smoothly and all. Oh, then the day to 43 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: day grind of your Singapore. How did this summit go? 44 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:52,839 Speaker 1: It was very smooth. I mean they didn't do much 45 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 1: at all on Monday. And and the big surprise event 46 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: was really Kim Jongoon taking an evening stroll around the 47 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: harbor front and sing before going to the rooftop of 48 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: the Marina based and um, there were crowds of onlookers 49 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: taking photos with them. This was all very spontaneous and 50 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 1: it made him He's taking selfies with the Singapore Foreign Minister. Um. 51 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,519 Speaker 1: You know, this makes him look like a normal leader 52 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: who received applause. He received a warm welcome all around. 53 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 1: So from that perspective, this was a big win for 54 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: Kim managing. It's a dan ten kg jointing us from Singapore. 55 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 1: I'm Tommy. You'd have to say, now, compared to where 56 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: we were a year ago, whether the President gave up 57 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 1: too much, received very little, we're in a much better 58 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: place than we were about six or twelve months ago. 59 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: And that's for sure. There's no question about that. I 60 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: will state is he is on Air Force one at 61 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 1: heading the Guam and across to Hawaii and then back 62 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: on home, that it appears he will be greeted John 63 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: Farrell by a firestorm of discussion over these military exercises. 64 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: He treated them is quote unquote war games. But we 65 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: have heard on this program in this studio, among others, 66 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: Admirald James Travitis go over the importance, the tactical physical 67 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: importance of these military has to some too happy parties 68 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 1: about the ending of those military exercises. One of them 69 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: things the North Korea, the other thing the Chinese. This 70 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: is probably exactly what the Chinese would have liked to 71 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: have seen, and they're getting it. Um. You know, I 72 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: mentioned the going out of television, the tweet just by 73 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: Overland's Richard Hass where Ambassador Hass was gracious about the moment, 74 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:38,119 Speaker 1: but then really centered in again on these military exercises. Again, 75 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: if you're just joining us and you saw the handshake 76 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:46,239 Speaker 1: last night about nine pm, John beautifully choreographed, I thought, uh, 77 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: the the idea of um of just stating in a 78 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 1: seventy minute press conference that the war games will end. 79 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,239 Speaker 1: That that pretty much John came out of the blue 80 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 1: from what I could do. Okay, there, what do you want? 81 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: I'm good? Are you are? Are you are working on 82 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: your World Cup? Feed over there? No no. Lisa Collins 83 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: joining us NOW Center for Strategic and International Studies Career Chair, UM. Lisa, 84 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the program. Let's begin with this historic summit 85 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: that we've had overnight. How much is the president given 86 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: up and how significant is it? Well, I think it's 87 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: a very significant concession that he's given up by agreeing 88 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: to suspend the US South Korean military exercises. That's something 89 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: that the South the North Koreans have been asking for 90 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: for decades, something they consistently raised in previous negotiations like 91 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: at the Six Party talks or even a great framework 92 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: factor in Clinton era. UM, and I think that this 93 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,919 Speaker 1: is something that previous US administrations have known is not 94 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: something that should be bargained away or should be used 95 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: as a political tool for you know, for bargaining with 96 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: the North Koreans. The military exercises are um and necessary 97 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: part of maintaining military readiness for our forces in the 98 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: region and for protecting our South Korean allies and Japanese 99 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 1: allies in the region, and so I think this is 100 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: a huge concession that maybe Trump didn't even realize he 101 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: was getting up. Lisa Collins with us, and we will 102 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: continue thrilled to have her with us through the morning 103 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in uh 104 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:39,239 Speaker 1: in Washington. We're enjoying shop jolliness with us with Credit 105 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 1: Suite is. Yes, we have international relations of politics of Singapore. 106 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: Thank you Lisa Collins for joining us there with terse 107 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: comments off of what we heard from President Trump. But 108 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,840 Speaker 1: also the backdrop is a LIPUS paper of the system, 109 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 1: which is foreign Exchange Shop. Is that still true that 110 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: you know I learned in my textbooks at Foreign Exchange 111 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: is the is the chemistry is a litmus paper of 112 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: the global financial system. Is that as true today as 113 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 1: it was years ago? I think it's it's still true. 114 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: What's different now maybe is that we have so much 115 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: constant news flow that the market can react and pricing 116 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: events very efficiently, perhaps more efficiently than it could back then, 117 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: And therefore the reaction to events like for example, this 118 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: summit in Singapore can sometimes be somewhat muted because we've 119 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: had so much time to think about it and understand 120 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: all the different implications that could arise, and when nothing 121 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: particularly surprising happens, you don't get much of a reaction. 122 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: So I think that's that's why you get this type 123 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: of price action compared to me. I mean, John, it's 124 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: almost like there's almost no news out there now. Yeah, 125 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: so dollar drifts is drifted. We just we just focus 126 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: on the theatrics all the time of foreign policy, and 127 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: sometimes we missed the data point. I would say more 128 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: important this morning for investors was just to look at 129 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: the small business Optimism survey here in the United State, 130 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: the set can hirest index reading and it's forty five 131 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: year history. Does that sound like American businesses worried. No, 132 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: but we've heard that. I mean Drew Marters yesterday, I 133 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: got a huge response. But the fact of the matter is, 134 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: whatever you think about these international events right now, schaha. 135 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: But it just seems to me that here in the 136 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: United States, domestically speaking, which is why we're talking about 137 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: small companies, not big caps, exposed to the international story, 138 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: but domestically speaking, it looks like the United States is 139 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: the best house on the street. That's still the case. 140 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: And you know, even the political risk in the US, 141 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: despite President Trump apparing to some to be a liability 142 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: on that front, it's still muted compared to most other 143 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: major economies out there. So for example, the UK you 144 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: have the Brexit debate. Europe just delivered the Italy story, 145 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: which was a surprise for many actually um and you 146 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: know clearly in emerging markets, you've got all kinds of 147 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: different political uncertainties out there right now, which which do 148 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: spill over into the economy. So that's why I think 149 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: the US at this point looks looks better than the rest. 150 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: Banks for America, Mary Lynch come out with that monthly 151 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: survey that a lot of people look at the fund 152 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: manager survey, and in that survey this month, the theme 153 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: is pretty clear. It's decoupling once again the United States. 154 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: People get an exposure to the US and trimming exposure 155 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,599 Speaker 1: to Europe and emerging markets. Are we decoupling here in 156 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 1: the United States from the rest of the world, and 157 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: we're moving from global synchronized growth to a world that's 158 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: quite familiar several years ago, which is the US doing 159 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: great with struggles our swhere. It doesn't have to be that. 160 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: If you go back just a couple of months. In fact, 161 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: many market participants expected a synchronized global recovery. In fact, 162 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: they expected, for example, Europe to perform so well that 163 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,839 Speaker 1: the euros should go higher against the US dollar even 164 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 1: with the US is yield differential advantage that it has 165 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 1: at this point in time. So there was a surprise 166 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: factor there where suddenly the numbers came off in places 167 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: like Europe and other parts of the world. And actually, 168 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: I think many economists still expect to bounce back in 169 00:09:56,360 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: those numbers. So this desynchronized growth outlooked at we have 170 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: at this point in time need not necessarily persisted. But 171 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 1: the heart of all of this analysis is gaming central banks. 172 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: And the central banks are gaming inflation and the vector, 173 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: the first and second derivatives of inflation. What are they 174 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: right now? I mean, what what is Mr Powell's summary. 175 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,559 Speaker 1: He's sitting at his desk, He's got his Bloomberg next 176 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: to him. We know that John Sherman pulse constantly on 177 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: his Bloomberg looking at the dots, But what is a 178 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: single sheet of paper on his desk about inflation? Actually say, well, look, 179 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 1: I think I think the bigger issue there is that 180 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: although the inflation level is at an acceptable level, and 181 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: certainly much higher than let's say europe A Japan's inflation level. 182 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: The flattening yield curve is sending a different message, which 183 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 1: is that the level of rates is that's priced in 184 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 1: right now, so let's send next to the end of 185 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: next year, is already high enough, you know, given the 186 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 1: longer term decline in potentially you know, potential growth and 187 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: other factors of the market is concerned about. So I 188 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: think that's that's the issue here. It's not really where 189 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: is inflation right now? It's what level of rates can 190 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: the market tolerate before it starts to worry about more 191 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: disinflation in the future. That's we're doing central bank analysis 192 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: by gas by forecast right well. I think even the 193 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: Central Bank Franction is doing that. If you think about 194 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: the debate that's ongoing at this point around what is 195 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 1: the real neutral rate at this point in time, how 196 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: much has that changed, how high above it can you 197 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: go before you risk a de leveraging concern in the 198 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 1: global economy. These are all things that being debated constantly, 199 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: and I don't think it's gonna be an answer to 200 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: that quick. We're talking about Panama yesterday in the world 201 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: Cup as it Rain got a chance, I think so. 202 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: I think, you know it's based on the very low 203 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: pal is that that the market is subscribing first game Friday, 204 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: if less the city can win the Premier League. I 205 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: think there's what's the first game Friday? Morocco? Yes, Morocco 206 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,839 Speaker 1: exactly came on Friday. So what happens does you have 207 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 1: when when kickoffs? What eleven eleven am on Friday? Yeah, 208 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,719 Speaker 1: you know I've got this credit dis credit space to 209 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: lose their effort. I've also got to watch England on Monday's. 210 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: It's the problem with your foot in multiple you mentioned 211 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: earlier Spain is going to do better. I mean you 212 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: know that that's just the gut feel. To be honest 213 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: with you, Why is Spain gonna do better? We're gonna 214 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,679 Speaker 1: cover this in detail, full team coverage in about seven minutes, folks. Yeah, 215 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: I actually don't think any particular country has a standout 216 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: strong team this time. Yeah, I would go with that. Yeah, 217 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: So that's why I'm just going with my gut feel, 218 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 1: which is Spain. I can't there's no analysis involved there. 219 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: My gut feel is the United States of America's not 220 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 1: in it. And I thought it's Nigeria. I thought that 221 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: was your No. I'm supporting Nigeria because I have a 222 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: memory from eight or twelve years ago that it was 223 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 1: fun watching them, you know, for an America now because 224 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: it is fun watching but come on there, like the 225 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: Washington Capitals to come down the ice and they shoot 226 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: the puck. Nigeria, there's none of this pussy footing around. 227 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: Nigeria comes down the field and they kicked the ball. 228 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 1: That's what Americans want right to see this summer. So 229 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 1: I'm gonna get you the excuse me to get it's 230 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: a kid. Well, I just say, I'm speaking in your 231 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 1: land a kid, but I'm going to get you the shirt. Okay, 232 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: call it the shirt. I'm going to get the Nigeria shirt. 233 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: I can't see you fully kidded out with the socks, 234 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 1: shorts and jersey as well. We have had some terrific 235 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 1: guests that we hope are giving you perspective away from 236 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 1: the basics of Korea, and one of them is Catherine 237 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 1: interest Moon uh Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy the Center 238 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: for East Asia Policy Studies as well. Catherine, thank you 239 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: so much for being with us on a busy day. 240 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 1: Let me begin with what we've seen through the morning 241 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: and what our audience has heard through the morning. With 242 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 1: what this moment means for South Korea, we've heard too 243 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: little about it. How does Soul respond to what we've seen? Well? 244 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 1: President Muon Jayne of South Korea has declared that he's very, 245 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 1: very happy and and considers the summit so far a success. 246 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: Um I think the South Korean public will feel good 247 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: about it, accept there's a problems. President Trump offered to 248 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: see joint military exercises, training exercises that are held regularly 249 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: throughout the year with South Korea as part of the alliance. 250 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: This was a unilaterally yeah made statement and this has 251 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: surprised the d D in the US as well as 252 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 1: South Korea. The government is basically saying they're going to 253 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 1: have to get clarity from the US about the statement. 254 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: So that is really unexpected and um way too much. 255 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: Written to Mr Kim, I mean, you came out of 256 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: the Smith College, Princeton, Combine, you're teaching up at Wellesley. 257 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: Now you're going to walk into your class tomorrow and 258 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: within your international relations you have to bring in the 259 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: military of the United States of America. How will the 260 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: Pentagon respond to what the president, it seems almost ad 261 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: hoc said within his press conference, Well, I have a 262 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: simple answer to that, which is that the Pentagon, as 263 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: far as the US Military Command in South Korea goes, 264 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 1: the spokesperson already said very very clearly and early on 265 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 1: that day, will proceed as usually, have gotten no command 266 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: and so they're training to get ready for the August 267 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: military exercise. I mean, this is a professor bon. This 268 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: is absolutely critical in that we have heard this from 269 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: Admirals Torvinis and others over he's at the school north 270 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: northeast of Wellesley called tufts Um and Admiral Stevidis has 271 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: said very simply, uh that this these are command orders, 272 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: aren't they right? Right now? This is this is um. 273 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: It's a bit commity. This is a little nuts frankly 274 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: um and uh, the Defense Minister Matis on a Monday, 275 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: the eve of the summit, had already said the military 276 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: exercises are not on the table for negotiations, and then 277 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 1: President Trump just offered it up, Kathy, are we in 278 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: a beneposition now on the peninsula And then we were 279 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: twolve months ago, Uh, well yes, if we don't want war. 280 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: This is a very very good development relative to war 281 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: or fire and fury and other kind of rhetorics like that. 282 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 1: So the big pictures death. However, Uh, there isn't much 283 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: there there in the joint statement. And for example, the 284 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: US promises um to goose North Korea security assurances and etcetera. 285 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: But North Korea promises to proceed with the declared de 286 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 1: nuclearization intention of April when Kim meant with Moon. However, 287 00:16:56,040 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: North Koreans have not even presented a recommitment to continuing 288 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: cruise on nuclear testing and missile testing. I mean, we 289 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,879 Speaker 1: could have a minimum gotten that. Would you say the 290 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 1: world is more secure now than twelve months ago? I 291 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: would say we are not on a road to war, 292 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: so therefore secure but quite insecure. In terms of what 293 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: is to come after this meeting, Well, what's what's the 294 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: greeting the president is going to get back in Washington? 295 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 1: I mean, we mentioned Pentagon earlier, but you know, you 296 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: see the back and forth between any executive branch officer 297 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: in the legislative branch. How will this be received in Washington? 298 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: I think the members of Congress will want to get clarification, 299 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: like many people around the world, because it's so vague. 300 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: What happened is so vague, and the U s seems 301 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: to have offered more, at least verbally. Um. The other reality, though, 302 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 1: is that the joint statement is not a bagally binding statement, 303 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: so it comes up and have to abide by any 304 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,959 Speaker 1: of it, and neither does Kim. You know one thing 305 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: I want to bring up as China. I found it 306 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: really striking that when Trump was taking questions from the media, Um, 307 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 1: he sanks Presidents She and all the other dignitaries of 308 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 1: East Asian countries are relevant there. But he said that 309 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: he is grateful to President She for having enforced so 310 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: tightly the sanctions, and then he says, but not so 311 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 1: much in the last two months, But that's okay, that's 312 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: what he says. But that's okay. So I was stunned 313 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: that he is signaling to China and other countries that 314 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: loosening up sanctions that not abiding by them uh is okay, 315 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: and that the US doesn't have much leverage m accept 316 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 1: the sanctions that the Chinese can employ. Well, Kathy, let's 317 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 1: talk about the Chinese role in all of this. Do 318 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,199 Speaker 1: you think the Chinese and President changing thing will be 319 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,919 Speaker 1: happy with the outcome of the summit Oh yeah, I 320 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: think for now, because the Chinese wanted exactly what Trump offered, 321 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: which is too ceased US military exercises in South Korea 322 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 1: in return for a freeze of nuclear and missile testing, etcetera. Um. 323 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 1: But in some ways China got what it wanted. The 324 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 1: North Korean's got so much just meeting Trump, getting the 325 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: coverage worldwide and not having to commit to anything specific. 326 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: Canthey has been incredibly difficult to make a judgment cool 327 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: after once summit, with a lot of theatrics. This is 328 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: going to take months, maybe even years for this to 329 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: play out. But as you see things at the moment, 330 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: your base case, the swear of influence that the North 331 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 1: Koreans fall into, is it towards the South, towards the 332 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 1: United States, or is it towards China. Oh, I think 333 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: it's none of the above. North Korea does not dance 334 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: to other countries, tune it's dances to its song. So 335 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: right now, I think North Korea Kim is doing a 336 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: really superb job doing the diplomacy politics with the South Koreans, 337 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: with the Chinese, with the Americans. Uh, He's willing to 338 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 1: dance with everybody right now, and with the Russians, and 339 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: I'm sure he's going to extend that dance card to 340 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: the Japanese as well. Kathy, really thoughtful stuff, and we 341 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: really appreciate your time on this program from the Brookings 342 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: Institution Center for East Asia Policy Studies. Um, Kathy Moon, 343 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 1: We've got a fantastic interview coming to us from Berlin. 344 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 1: Tom Keene unexpected and Gal Guria, the o ECG Secretary General, 345 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 1: just popping into the Berlin studio and he joined us 346 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: from Berlin, Germany. And good morning to your sir, Good 347 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: afternoon to you over there, and thank you very much 348 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 1: for joining us. Let's just talk about your meeting with 349 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: a Chancellor Merkel in Berlin. Huge reversal seemingly in US 350 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,439 Speaker 1: German relations over the last year. Just what kind of 351 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: position is Chancellor Merkel in and what had she told you? Well, 352 00:20:56,160 --> 00:21:02,959 Speaker 1: Chancellor Merkel is always at VISTIQ and she's always pragmatic, 353 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 1: and she's always working towards a greater cooperation. So I 354 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: think we what we did together with the heads of 355 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: the i m F, together with the head of the 356 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: World Bank, of the International Labor Organization and the World 357 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: Trade Organization myself, we all talked about UH in each 358 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:27,959 Speaker 1: of our domains, how we could work with multilateralism and 359 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: how we could promote globalization. And at the same time 360 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: we had the head of the African Development Bank, so 361 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: we focused a lot on cooperation with Africa. The domain 362 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: of Mexico is something that you have grown up with 363 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: and you have now seen the tests by the domain 364 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: of Trump, whether it's NAFTA, Mexico, what we've seen with 365 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: Canada coming out of Quebec and a course with your 366 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: conversation with Chancellor Miracle today, these domains are under attack 367 00:21:56,280 --> 00:22:02,120 Speaker 1: from a unique president. How should they respond to Donald Trump? Well, 368 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 1: I think that these are different circumstances. In the case 369 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 1: of Mexico, which you mentioned, what we're going to have 370 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 1: an election on the first of July UH and there's 371 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: still so there's still you know, three weeks of campaigning 372 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: to do um and the questions in Visa v. The 373 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 1: United States depend a lot on UH NAFTA, How will 374 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 1: NAFTA uh it developed, How will NAFTA end up in 375 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 1: terms of the negotiations, But they also issues of security, 376 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 1: issues of migration, there are issues of you know, the 377 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: not not not just a trade but also the dealing 378 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: of drugs and arms that come from the South and 379 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: go into consumption in the United States, and then the 380 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,479 Speaker 1: arms flow coming from the United States into Mexico. So 381 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: there are a number of issues that the bilateral relationship 382 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 1: requires when it comes to well, for example, the G 383 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: seven meeting, of course, that was mostly a an issue 384 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,160 Speaker 1: that was brought up in terms of the communicate. At 385 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:13,439 Speaker 1: the end, it was mostly about trade to some extent 386 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: climate and then and then last but not least in 387 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 1: the case in the particular case about Canada, well, it 388 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 1: was about whatever this encounter happened because of the communicate, 389 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: And in some ways in Europe there is a protectionist 390 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,199 Speaker 1: wall creating barriers to entry for for many people to 391 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: get into the European market, the auto market being one 392 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: of them. The Europeans realizing that they need to remove 393 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: some of those tariffs on on auto imports in order 394 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: to appease the president Here in the United States, I 395 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 1: don't think that anybody is doing anything to appease anybody else. 396 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 1: But I think the question is that you realize that 397 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,640 Speaker 1: more and more the barriers of trade have to come 398 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 1: down in order for everybody to capture the ifits of trade. Yeah, 399 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 1: and I think it's an important question I got, But 400 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,719 Speaker 1: I just wonder whether the Europeans themselves are aware that 401 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 1: that's got to happen, and they themselves have barriers to 402 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: entry that need to come down. I I think that 403 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: more and more there is a common understanding that this 404 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,679 Speaker 1: has to happen, and then there is a question of 405 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: uh A time and speed, and then the specificity about 406 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: which and where and what sectors. But my my, as 407 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,919 Speaker 1: I said before, my impression is this is a world 408 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,199 Speaker 1: in which these tires have to come down, continue to 409 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,880 Speaker 1: come down, eventually disappear. They're already very low, right, They're 410 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 1: already very low, and they're coming down further all the time. 411 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 1: And now, with your experience at O E c D 412 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: and the other public service tasks you've taken for your 413 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 1: nation of Mexico, you visited South Korea many times. How 414 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 1: the South Koreans respond to what we saw in the 415 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 1: last twenty four hours in Singapore, it has to be good, 416 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: it has to be positive. I have myself been in 417 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 1: uh the in the Special Economic zone you know, on 418 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 1: the on the North Um, and I can only tell 419 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 1: you that the potential there for complementarity, the potential there 420 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: for uh, you know, transforming in North Korea into a 421 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: very important uh you know, complement to the capacity not 422 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 1: only of South Korea but also of the whole of 423 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: the world is very great. So I think whatever happened 424 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: to day, it's not it's good not only for security 425 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 1: issues but for the future of the world. And Algaria, 426 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: thank you so much from our studios in Berlin is 427 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: the fifth Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation 428 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,640 Speaker 1: and Development. Of course out of Paris is well, John, 429 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: That's one of the big Bloomberg advantages out of the blue. Yeah, 430 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: and on blocks of violence accountlement. He wants to come 431 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 1: out and we're thrilled by that, and that's wants it 432 00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,880 Speaker 1: worked by our team over the but that that's wonderfully 433 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 1: here frommed there's just so much new song. We could 434 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: spend an hour there alone. In Mexico and the elections 435 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: coming up. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 436 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 437 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 438 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: Keane Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. 439 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio