WEBVTT - What the Iran War Means for Dubai's Luxury Boom

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Tracy Alloway.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm Joe Wisenthal.

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<v Speaker 2>Joe, Obviously, there's a lot going on right now in

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<v Speaker 2>the Gulf. One of the things that's been happening is

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<v Speaker 2>that Iran, of course, has been sending drones across the

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<v Speaker 2>sea and over to the UAE and hitting various energy

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<v Speaker 2>infrastructure assets. But it's also been hitting some non energy

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<v Speaker 2>infrastructure assets such as hotels, you know, consulates, residences.

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<v Speaker 3>Right of course, you know we've seen, for example, the

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<v Speaker 3>various strikes. We're going to talk about Dubai specifically in

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<v Speaker 3>this episode. The interesting thing about Dubai, as we know

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<v Speaker 3>is there's been a lot of people who've moved there,

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<v Speaker 3>lots and lots of money, to say the least. But

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<v Speaker 3>part of the appeal there is here's an island of stability,

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<v Speaker 3>not just an island. And this is what the part

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<v Speaker 3>that enters me not technically an island, not technically an island,

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<v Speaker 3>and not just an island of stability. Within the context

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<v Speaker 3>of the Middle East. There is this growing perception all

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<v Speaker 3>around the world, particularly in rich countries where people don't

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<v Speaker 3>like what's going on with taxes, where they don't like

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<v Speaker 3>feel safe about the trajectory of politics in these countries,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera. This sort of ongoing feeling of deterioration of

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<v Speaker 3>various flavors where they're from. And it's like, you know what,

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<v Speaker 3>I want to live in a country that has low crime,

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<v Speaker 3>a high level of stability, and sort of you know,

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<v Speaker 3>to be crude, escape the failing West. Exit as they say,

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<v Speaker 3>in sort of the idea of exit, loyalty and voice

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<v Speaker 3>and so forth.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is really interesting because in addition to styling

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<v Speaker 2>itself as this sort of island proverbial island of stability,

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<v Speaker 2>that's true, but they've also styled themselves as and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>stealing this from the guests that I will introduce in

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<v Speaker 2>just a minute or two, but they've styled themselves as

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<v Speaker 2>the capital of capital. Right. So, here is this region

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<v Speaker 2>that has an enormous amount of money from oil wealth,

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<v Speaker 2>and a lot of that money has been flowing into

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<v Speaker 2>not just real estate in the region itself, but real

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<v Speaker 2>estate externally in the West. We know that there are

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<v Speaker 2>big sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and they

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<v Speaker 2>invest in all sorts of things. Lately, there's been a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of private debt investment, which is an interesting one

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<v Speaker 2>given the concerns around private lending at the moment. They've

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<v Speaker 2>invested in famously US treasuries. Tech stocks like the UAE

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<v Speaker 2>Saudi Arabia are huge, huge forces when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>tech valuations at the moment. And so when you kind

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<v Speaker 2>of start connecting all of these things together, you have

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<v Speaker 2>to ask what does the situation in Iran actually mean,

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<v Speaker 2>not just for the idea of Dubai and Abu Dhabi

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<v Speaker 2>as this sort of expat paradise, but also as this

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<v Speaker 2>locus of an enormous amount of money that tends to

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<v Speaker 2>flow around.

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<v Speaker 3>The world absolutely and again like this is a place

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<v Speaker 3>where those with means, those with like lots of money

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<v Speaker 3>are feeling like this is this is arguably the future.

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<v Speaker 3>This is where I want to set up shop. Ray

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<v Speaker 3>Zalio has a family office that's in the UAE and

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<v Speaker 3>so forth. And you know, historically there have been these places,

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<v Speaker 3>these places where capital wants to be either have a

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<v Speaker 3>literal or sort of figurative footprint. Switzerland of course long

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<v Speaker 3>time in that category. Singapore perhaps similar, but you have

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<v Speaker 3>people in the West. You have a lot of people

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<v Speaker 3>in the UK and you're like, you know what, this

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<v Speaker 3>is where I'm going. This is my bet on the future, right,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm betting my future, the future of my money, the

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<v Speaker 3>future of my business somehow to be domiciled figuratively or

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<v Speaker 3>literally in Dubai, the UAE, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>There's also something that the UAE in particular has done,

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<v Speaker 2>which is it's achieved this sort of diplomatic or strategic ambiguity. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess you could say where it's a place where

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<v Speaker 2>everyone from the US to Russia and to some extent

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<v Speaker 2>Iran can do business right. So there's a big question

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<v Speaker 2>over whether that continues at all. Anyway, we do, in

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<v Speaker 2>fact have the perfect guest. I actually think this is

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<v Speaker 2>a really good way to look at the sort of

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<v Speaker 2>interconnection of global capital and some of the gray market

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<v Speaker 2>stuff that happens in the UAE is through property and

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<v Speaker 2>commercial property in particular.

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<v Speaker 3>Totally, And you know, I just want to say, this

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<v Speaker 3>is not the first time, you know, we've talked about

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<v Speaker 3>the UA. Certainly we've talked about the golf, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>even prior to the last few weeks. In my mind,

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<v Speaker 3>I've thought I want to do more on this topic,

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<v Speaker 3>specifically in England. It's a very big deal. It's a

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<v Speaker 3>very big part of the sort of news and politics.

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<v Speaker 3>How many of their wealthy have left over the years

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<v Speaker 3>to go to the UAE and so forth. I wonder

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<v Speaker 3>to some extent the UAE. And I'm not the first

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<v Speaker 3>person to make this observation, but like the you know,

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<v Speaker 3>if you imagine this place with an extraordinary amount of

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<v Speaker 3>abundant natural resources, et cetera, a world in which there

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<v Speaker 3>is an extreme and it makes a miracle look very

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<v Speaker 3>pale in comparison, an extreme gap between the haves and

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<v Speaker 3>the have nots, et cetera. Sometimes I think about, like,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, is the future of the world? Essentially, do

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<v Speaker 3>buy a five where you have this very tiny slice

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<v Speaker 3>of people who are just insanely wealthy kind of you know,

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<v Speaker 3>to use the popular parlance, a permanent underclass within the

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<v Speaker 3>same thing, a place where there a lot of these

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<v Speaker 3>successful people are like something you talk a lot about,

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<v Speaker 3>which is is the future of the economy, just like

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<v Speaker 3>people who look really good and so forth. No for real, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, we know that it's a home to

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of influencer is taking photos in front of

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<v Speaker 3>iconic hotels on man made beaches, et cetera. I have

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<v Speaker 3>this feeling that there is a version of the world

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<v Speaker 3>that looks like the UAE, for better or worse. So

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<v Speaker 3>I've just been thinking, both literally and sort of metaphorically,

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<v Speaker 3>we need to understand these dynamics of the UAE better.

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<v Speaker 2>It's funny because when I was an Abu Dhabi and

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<v Speaker 2>people asked me what it was like living there, I

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<v Speaker 2>used to say, it's like living in Texas in the

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<v Speaker 2>sense that you spend a lot of time in the

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<v Speaker 2>shopping mall, you spend a lot of time in your car,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's hot all the time, and you don't really

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<v Speaker 2>see that many people out on the street. Now I

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<v Speaker 2>kind of think, well, you know, maybe Abu Dhabi is

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<v Speaker 2>the blueprint for some places in Texas. But anyway, you

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<v Speaker 2>know what.

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<v Speaker 3>I just say, you know what it looks like is

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<v Speaker 3>it looks like Miami. And if you've spent any time,

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<v Speaker 3>like on North Collins Avenue and some of the architecture

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<v Speaker 3>and hotels, etc.

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<v Speaker 5>There.

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<v Speaker 3>When I've looked at some of the recent photos, including

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<v Speaker 3>unfortunately one of the hotels that got hit, I was like,

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<v Speaker 3>this could be like this could be a building that

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<v Speaker 3>went up two years ago in like somewhere in Miami Beach.

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<v Speaker 3>So so much to discuss, all right.

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<v Speaker 2>Rather than us spending more time discussing this, we do,

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<v Speaker 2>in fact have the perfect guests, someone who's been on

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<v Speaker 2>the podcast before talking about real estate for the ultra wealthy,

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<v Speaker 2>and someone who has personal connections to Dubai as well.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to be speaking with Hitten Stani. He is

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<v Speaker 2>the founder of ten thirty one Media and publisher of

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<v Speaker 2>the Promote. So, Hitten, thanks so much for coming back

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<v Speaker 2>on the podcast.

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<v Speaker 5>Hey, good to be here.

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<v Speaker 2>Would you agree with that framing? How do you think

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<v Speaker 2>about you know, Dubai's reputation in the world in recent years.

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<v Speaker 4>I think for the most part it's correct, I would

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<v Speaker 4>add to it. So, not only is it styled itself

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<v Speaker 4>as a safe haven to do business, I think where

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<v Speaker 4>it has probably gone further than any country in the

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<v Speaker 4>modern era is cherry picking the kind of society that

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<v Speaker 4>an ultra rich person would think about too. So there's

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<v Speaker 4>one thing to be in Singapore and say all right,

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<v Speaker 4>make your money here, But we have a Singaporean society

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<v Speaker 4>that is very specific right in ubbe Dubai etc. It's

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<v Speaker 4>almost like a build your own bear kind of society. Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>you're a wealthy person, come here. The only rule is

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<v Speaker 4>don't mess with our politics. You're never getting involved in

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<v Speaker 4>anything related to any sort of democratic debate. Outside of that.

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<v Speaker 4>You want to live a decadent lifestyle, we have everything.

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<v Speaker 5>Set up for you.

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<v Speaker 4>You want to live a pious lifestyle, it's all set

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<v Speaker 4>up too. We will guarantee you safety, and that's obviously

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<v Speaker 4>the big asterisk why we're talking today. Will guarantee you safety,

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<v Speaker 4>will guarantee you an incredibly pro business environment, and you

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<v Speaker 4>can kind of stitch together this existence. I think there

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<v Speaker 4>is no other place in the world that has this

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<v Speaker 4>mix between the decadent and kind of the family friendly

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<v Speaker 4>life that the UA government has very very concernedly created

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<v Speaker 4>for the well healed globally. And I think Tracy had

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<v Speaker 4>made a point about sort of all these nationalities coming

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<v Speaker 4>together in this diplomatic xanadu. It's been true forever.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it always reminded me a little bit of like Casablanca,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, all these years the day around, Yeah, exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know what people do there. I don't know

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<v Speaker 3>if people work, I don't know if anyone actually does work.

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<v Speaker 3>The only thing, you know, I see the Instagram photos,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera. But like, talk to us about the scale

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<v Speaker 3>of the influx, particularly among the global elite, and to

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<v Speaker 3>what degree is it a real phenomenon. You see people

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<v Speaker 3>talk about this on Twitter of like a certain type

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<v Speaker 3>of people who's kind of given up on the West

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<v Speaker 3>and they're willing to take that trade off. I bet

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of them if you'd asked them, they're like, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>democracy is good, et cetera like that, but they're like,

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<v Speaker 3>you know what, I look at Western democracy and it

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<v Speaker 3>really does not look that good. It only looks in

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<v Speaker 3>one direction. I'm worried about communists taking over and taking

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<v Speaker 3>my money. I'm worried about all this, and Dubai looks

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<v Speaker 3>like this, you know, oasis and how big has that

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<v Speaker 3>trend to ground?

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<v Speaker 4>Sure, So there's two ways to think about it. One

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<v Speaker 4>is what you're talking about, which is sort of the chavvy, right,

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<v Speaker 4>the chav chavvy British influencer.

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<v Speaker 3>Made a bunch of money because they were early to

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<v Speaker 3>Solana and yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I saw someone shoot up outside my house on

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<v Speaker 4>a very nice street in the UK. I'm sick of this,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm going to go over to Dubai twenty four to

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<v Speaker 4>seven son no taxes, blah blah blah. That is obviously

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<v Speaker 4>one component.

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<v Speaker 3>Of four seven son. I'm pretty sure.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, except when there's like a dust storm, they

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<v Speaker 2>pretty much do.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, Okay, I'll have to figure out the astronomy of

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<v Speaker 3>that one, but keep going.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, they do cloud seating too, so they can mess with.

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<v Speaker 5>The weather and ways they Okay think amazing.

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<v Speaker 4>There is that cohort of sort of disgruntled let's say,

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<v Speaker 4>upper middle class to wealthy people from places like the

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<v Speaker 4>UK et cetera. That's one class, and I think that

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<v Speaker 4>is culturally much more significant than it is financially significant. Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>the other class, and I think the inflection point that

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<v Speaker 4>is probably the most logical to take is the Russian

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<v Speaker 4>invasion of Ukraine. Right around early twenty twenty two. There

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<v Speaker 4>was this unbelievable influx of people from let's call it

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<v Speaker 4>Russian Republic for just to make it a little easier

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<v Speaker 4>kind of that area of the world. All this money

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<v Speaker 4>flowed in, and now you look at parts of Dubai

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<v Speaker 4>that have been transformed by let's call it Russian wealth.

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<v Speaker 4>Right there are parts of Dubai that look exactly like

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<v Speaker 4>Sunny Isles Beach in Miami, which is Russian wealth, Russian dominated.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the tongue you hear in the streets, and the

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<v Speaker 4>culture of it has been turned on its head very

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<v Speaker 4>dramatically and very rapidly. So unlike other places, Dubai is

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<v Speaker 4>very I'm going to pull up some numbers now. So

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<v Speaker 4>the city Dubai specifically is home to about three point

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<v Speaker 4>eight million people at the moment. I think when I

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<v Speaker 4>was growing up there in the nineties that was number

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<v Speaker 4>was probably close to two million, and it's expected to

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<v Speaker 4>surge by to five point eight million by twenty forty.

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<v Speaker 4>So you're talking about adding two million people to the

0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:14.120
<v Speaker 4>city in what fifteen years or so, Right, that's gonna.

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:16.800
<v Speaker 2>Be a I'm already imagining what that means for traffic.

0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:20.080
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's traffic there is now kind of a

0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:23.080
<v Speaker 4>parody of itself, Like there is no way to gauge

0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:28.280
<v Speaker 4>what's going on. The metros are you know, in full capacity,

0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.200
<v Speaker 4>but it's always terrible, right, So they do have all

0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.079
<v Speaker 4>these infrastructure problems similar to what Miami is going through now.

0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:36.600
<v Speaker 4>But I think the difference in in the Ua in

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:40.760
<v Speaker 4>general is the government is really on it. They're really

0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:43.240
<v Speaker 4>trying to create large scale solutions to a lot of

0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 4>the problems that we have there. Right so be a

0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:48.640
<v Speaker 4>traffic they're building roads every single day. The joke is

0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:50.640
<v Speaker 4>that people like my dad who grew up there are

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:52.720
<v Speaker 4>actually the worst drivers there because they try to go

0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:56.240
<v Speaker 4>by gut and they can't because there's always a new flyover,

0:12:56.640 --> 0:13:00.760
<v Speaker 4>our new intersection, et cetera. But they're doing that the infrastructure,

0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:03.079
<v Speaker 4>they're doing the cloud seating for the weather, They're trying

0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:07.000
<v Speaker 4>so many different social experiments for cohesion. There's a lot

0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.800
<v Speaker 4>going on, and I haven't seen a government as kind

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.680
<v Speaker 4>of on it, which is why where we are today

0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:15.120
<v Speaker 4>is it's such a big question mark.

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.960
<v Speaker 2>What have you seen just in terms of property prices

0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:36.880
<v Speaker 2>in Dubai in recent years. So you mentioned the influx

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:40.320
<v Speaker 2>of Russians my you know, anecdotally, I still have friends

0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.360
<v Speaker 2>in Dubai. They were saying that all the rents basically

0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:47.360
<v Speaker 2>went up for residential because you had this huge population jump.

0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:51.120
<v Speaker 2>But I'm curious also what happened with commercial property prices.

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:55.080
<v Speaker 4>I think a lot of the sort of the explosion

0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:56.920
<v Speaker 4>of growth in Dubai can be seen can be seen

0:13:56.960 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 4>in land prices. Land prices are up by a factor

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:03.000
<v Speaker 4>for four forty to seventy percent, And this all stems

0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.320
<v Speaker 4>from the super luxury boom that Dubai has seen. I

0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.280
<v Speaker 4>think the last time we talked a year or change ago,

0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:12.880
<v Speaker 4>I was telling you about the superprime luxury market in Dubai,

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.880
<v Speaker 4>which is globally defined by night Frank as sales of

0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:19.880
<v Speaker 4>ten million dollars or more. Dubai is leading the charts

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 4>for a long time. I think in Q three they

0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:25.320
<v Speaker 4>had north of two billion dollars of sales just in

0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:28.560
<v Speaker 4>the super prime category. So by volume they are they

0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 4>have the most transactions of any market in the world

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 4>in this category.

0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:33.280
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 4>So, because developers can get and this is something we

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.160
<v Speaker 4>that is mirrored in Manhattan for the longest time. Because

0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 4>developers can get that kind of pricing for condos and homes,

0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 4>they then go and buy more and more land. They

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.960
<v Speaker 4>do some land banking, and because land has become so

0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:53.120
<v Speaker 4>expensive now, they're going and getting some exotic financing for it. So, Tracy,

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:56.720
<v Speaker 4>you probably remember covering Sukuk and all the Islamic bond

0:14:56.760 --> 0:15:00.760
<v Speaker 4>stuff that is blowing up now in the real estate market.

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.640
<v Speaker 4>So I think you guys had a stat. Bloomberg got

0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 4>a stat that dollar bond in sukkook issuance has grown

0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 4>more than twelvefold to six billion dollars since twenty twenty one.

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:15.760
<v Speaker 3>Wow. When I'm in Miami and I love Miami, I've

0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 3>never been to Dubai, but I love Miami. I'm going

0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:21.960
<v Speaker 3>to be sort of diplomatic in my words here about

0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:25.480
<v Speaker 3>when I'm in Miami, I get this feeling that it

0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 3>is a very diverse on paper city.

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:29.880
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.960
<v Speaker 3>You have your Russians, you have your other Eastern Europeans,

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 3>you have your Ironans, effect you have your Israelis, you

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 3>have your various multi obviously Latin Americans of various sorts,

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:48.680
<v Speaker 3>et cetera. There is this nominal diversity in terms of

0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:53.680
<v Speaker 3>the type of person who comes there, and yet everyone

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 3>sort of merges into the same guy, if you know

0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.440
<v Speaker 3>what I mean. They sort of dressed the same, they

0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 3>drive this cars, they kind of talk the same. There

0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.520
<v Speaker 3>is this sort of I would say, ethnically ambiguous Miami guy.

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.000
<v Speaker 3>They end up all kind of looking the same, et cetera.

0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:12.960
<v Speaker 3>They have the same vibe. Is it sort of true

0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:17.760
<v Speaker 3>in Dubai? Do you have this sort of nominally diverse population,

0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:24.080
<v Speaker 3>but then when they're there, they suddenly fuse into Dubai. Guy,

0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 3>do you know what I'm saying?

0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:29.920
<v Speaker 5>Hundred percent? Get it? Okay, this is yeah, one hundred percent.

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 4>So a friend of mine recently went to what's known

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:35.040
<v Speaker 4>as a watch party, okay, where it's a bunch of

0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 4>guys who just sport their ice on the wrist, right,

0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 4>and and that that is exactly when you go into

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.320
<v Speaker 4>a party like that, you will see people had every

0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.400
<v Speaker 4>nationality bound by just the love of that.

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:49.320
<v Speaker 3>I yes, yes they have this, yes.

0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 5>The masquerading love whatever you want.

0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:54.040
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, there is this kind of Dubai type right, because

0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:57.040
<v Speaker 4>in a city where roots are not really a thing

0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:00.360
<v Speaker 4>for a lot of people, the external factors be more

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.800
<v Speaker 4>and more important. The car I remember vividly. I was

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 4>out with friends for shisha and we were heading from

0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 4>from I missed the shisha so much. It's probably, yeah,

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:13.000
<v Speaker 4>probably better for us that we don't smoke it all

0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.520
<v Speaker 4>the time now. But I remember going from a sort

0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:19.280
<v Speaker 4>of a pedestrian sheiesha place to a nicer sisha place

0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:21.560
<v Speaker 4>right so old part of town to new part of town,

0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:24.800
<v Speaker 4>et cetera. I remember this friend. We went home to

0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:27.760
<v Speaker 4>switch cars. That's the only reason we went this place.

0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:29.880
<v Speaker 4>We went to the garage, we did not go inside.

0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.239
<v Speaker 4>We switched cars, and then we went back out. This

0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 4>is a very common thing that has always been a

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:38.400
<v Speaker 4>part of Dubai. The difference between what you talked about,

0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:42.160
<v Speaker 4>Joe and what happens in Dubai is it's not necessarily

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:45.719
<v Speaker 4>a melting pot. It really is like it is it is.

0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:50.360
<v Speaker 4>It is a collection of ethnic enclaves, right, and the

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:52.440
<v Speaker 4>only thing they have in common is that they live

0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:55.960
<v Speaker 4>in Dubai. You can spend your entire life sort of

0:17:56.040 --> 0:18:01.359
<v Speaker 4>ghettoized in your with your type of people. Interesting, and

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:05.680
<v Speaker 4>I think with so much influx that has only become

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:09.560
<v Speaker 4>more accentuated now. It would be silly to say, oh, yeah,

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:11.240
<v Speaker 4>you only see your type. I have friends from all

0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:13.840
<v Speaker 4>over the world. Anyone who lives in Dubai has had

0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:16.640
<v Speaker 4>that privilege too, right, Like you can kind of tap

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:18.920
<v Speaker 4>into any culture you want. Yeah, but you can also

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:21.800
<v Speaker 4>stay very fixated in yours.

0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:26.520
<v Speaker 2>Let's say there's also a lot of racial stratification maybe

0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:28.520
<v Speaker 2>that's the right word, where you know, if you go

0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:32.080
<v Speaker 2>into a fancy restaurant, a lot of the people who

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.359
<v Speaker 2>are like sat down will either be Amoradi or white,

0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:38.080
<v Speaker 2>and all the servers and waiters are going to come

0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 2>from Nepal or India. Like that happen. It's very noticeable.

0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:44.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think I think Tracy, a lot of that

0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:46.720
<v Speaker 4>has changed quite a bit, right, I think so much

0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:49.400
<v Speaker 4>money coming in from all parts of the world, including

0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:52.439
<v Speaker 4>South Asia, that that hierarchy that used to be so

0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:56.200
<v Speaker 4>preced there is very much diluted a little bit.

0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.000
<v Speaker 5>So you will go to.

0:18:57.880 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 4>The top restaurant or top club and you will kind

0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:01.720
<v Speaker 4>of a United Nations type of vibe.

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:05.239
<v Speaker 2>Now, talk to us about what you're hearing just on

0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:08.560
<v Speaker 2>the ground in Dubai at the moment, because the information

0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:13.479
<v Speaker 2>flow is a little bit tricky. The UAE controls the

0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:18.920
<v Speaker 2>information that not only circulates domestically but also circulates externally.

0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:22.840
<v Speaker 2>So while we have seen some videos of drones hitting

0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:27.720
<v Speaker 2>various buildings, it's not entirely clear. We're getting a really

0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.760
<v Speaker 2>good sense of the situation there. What are you hearing

0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:33.080
<v Speaker 2>from friends and family on the ground.

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:36.440
<v Speaker 4>So overwhelmingly the messages that things are okay in life

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 4>is moving on. I think anyone you talk to in

0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:41.600
<v Speaker 4>the region has a certain the information flow problem that

0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:44.200
<v Speaker 4>you kind of alluded to. That is very much a thing.

0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:48.919
<v Speaker 4>Most people are getting their news and information from social

0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:49.640
<v Speaker 4>media nowadays.

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:50.480
<v Speaker 5>Social media is.

0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:53.119
<v Speaker 4>Very tightly controlled in the UA and in the region

0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:57.560
<v Speaker 4>in general, so a lot of us who are have

0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:00.680
<v Speaker 4>Dubai sort of close to their hearts from the outside

0:20:00.840 --> 0:20:04.240
<v Speaker 4>end up seeing kind of more than we more than

0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:05.399
<v Speaker 4>the people back home do.

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:05.879
<v Speaker 5>Now.

0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:08.560
<v Speaker 4>There have been certain things, right there was an attack

0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:12.960
<v Speaker 4>on the airport that was major news. The government in

0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:15.159
<v Speaker 4>Dubai duscent or the government in the UE, sends out

0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.679
<v Speaker 4>alerts and all that, that's the kind of thing that

0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:19.679
<v Speaker 4>they see. But in general, and I think this is

0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:22.880
<v Speaker 4>going to be a broader part of our conversation, and

0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:25.320
<v Speaker 4>not to make a desert pun here, but the UE

0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:28.520
<v Speaker 4>has to project an image of an oasis of common stability.

0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:29.200
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:20:29.440 --> 0:20:31.359
<v Speaker 4>I like to say that New York is a great

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:34.199
<v Speaker 4>city any day of the week, any weather, at all times.

0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:37.480
<v Speaker 4>Los Angeles has to be on its best best weather

0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:40.800
<v Speaker 4>behavior at all times, and there is a similar analogy.

0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:41.520
<v Speaker 5>To be made at the UAE.

0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.480
<v Speaker 4>The whole game does not work unless it feels safe.

0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 4>That is the number one thing that the government talks

0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.359
<v Speaker 4>about that is the number one thing that investors taut

0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:55.159
<v Speaker 4>in their materials. When you're soliciting investment for the UAE

0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:57.480
<v Speaker 4>or convincing someone to move your business to the UE,

0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:00.480
<v Speaker 4>safety is the number one thing. And again we don't

0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:03.320
<v Speaker 4>know how bad this is. I think I'd like to

0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:06.680
<v Speaker 4>make an example from another neighbor of the UAE, the

0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:09.480
<v Speaker 4>Kutthery Energy minister. Did you guys see that comment? I

0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:11.320
<v Speaker 4>mean that is absolutely stunning.

0:21:11.359 --> 0:21:11.920
<v Speaker 2>Oh what do you say?

0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:16.240
<v Speaker 4>So the Iranians struck an LNG facility.

0:21:15.840 --> 0:21:20.119
<v Speaker 2>In Kuthar and about the repair time, No, this is.

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.399
<v Speaker 4>About he said that it took out seventeen percent of

0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:27.320
<v Speaker 4>Cutter's expert capacity. That is a stunning revelation to make.

0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 4>I think this guy, his name is Sad the Cabby,

0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 4>I think he is a little bit more outspoken than

0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:35.640
<v Speaker 4>I've seen other government ministers. But he said they might

0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:39.760
<v Speaker 4>have to invoke force majure contracts on experts to certain countries.

0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:40.480
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:44.840
<v Speaker 4>That is the kind of thing that should give people pause. Right,

0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:47.159
<v Speaker 4>And we're going to talk about this in a second.

0:21:47.240 --> 0:21:50.280
<v Speaker 4>But a lot of these countries, the UE, in particular Katar,

0:21:50.320 --> 0:21:55.000
<v Speaker 4>Saudi Arabia, Kuwait are big, big investors in the global landscape.

0:21:55.600 --> 0:21:58.200
<v Speaker 3>You mentioned a l Right, you go into the nice restaurant,

0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:00.399
<v Speaker 3>and maybe at this point it does have sort of

0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:06.719
<v Speaker 3>the clientele has this United Nations feel, But as Tracy mentioned,

0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:10.119
<v Speaker 3>maybe the waiter is from Nepal or somewhere else in

0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:15.959
<v Speaker 3>South Asia, et cetera. Again, there's this meme in that

0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:18.760
<v Speaker 3>the world is gonna entering what they call, you know,

0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:21.720
<v Speaker 3>the global permanent under class. You have to buy this

0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:25.479
<v Speaker 3>cryptocurrency because this is your lottery ticket out of the

0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:29.199
<v Speaker 3>global permanent underclass. You have to whatever Ai sort of

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.280
<v Speaker 3>are talked about in the same language as crypto in

0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:37.840
<v Speaker 3>that respect. From inside of Dubai, that waiter or the

0:22:38.000 --> 0:22:42.000
<v Speaker 3>child of that waiter, is there this sense that they

0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:46.199
<v Speaker 3>will always be part of that permanent underclass, and that

0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:50.280
<v Speaker 3>there is no relationship in a sort of societal fabric

0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:54.879
<v Speaker 3>between the life of that waiter and the life of

0:22:54.920 --> 0:22:56.760
<v Speaker 3>everyone that they're serving in that restaurant.

0:22:56.880 --> 0:22:59.320
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think that that's very true the Horatio Alger

0:22:59.400 --> 0:23:01.720
<v Speaker 4>stories and I tend to be the person who's come

0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:04.320
<v Speaker 4>in and made the life for themselves, right, the scrap

0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:07.480
<v Speaker 4>the entrepreneur who came at thirty years old with nothing

0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:09.800
<v Speaker 4>and now owns a bunch of yachts. That is the

0:23:09.880 --> 0:23:13.159
<v Speaker 4>kind of story you do not typically see social mobility

0:23:13.640 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 4>within the city. Right, So if you are part of

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:19.080
<v Speaker 4>what you described as the social underclass, you tend to

0:23:19.119 --> 0:23:21.960
<v Speaker 4>stay in that role until you leave, and you will

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:24.320
<v Speaker 4>always leave, right, that's the other part of it.

0:23:24.760 --> 0:23:27.520
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and just you know, on your point about business

0:23:27.560 --> 0:23:30.199
<v Speaker 3>as usual. One of the things that I like to

0:23:30.240 --> 0:23:34.000
<v Speaker 3>do to sort of get some perspective on an area

0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:37.880
<v Speaker 3>is go to Instagram and see what the latest photos

0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:40.440
<v Speaker 3>from that area are. And it's sort of like I've

0:23:40.440 --> 0:23:42.479
<v Speaker 3>always found that to just be a nice way of

0:23:42.480 --> 0:23:45.359
<v Speaker 3>like figuring out, like what is the vibe of this,

0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 3>what's going on? It's still to this day if you

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:51.120
<v Speaker 3>look at if you try to pull up any location

0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:56.119
<v Speaker 3>in Dubai, particularly an outdoor location, there's a good chance

0:23:56.160 --> 0:24:00.160
<v Speaker 3>that the only photos you're going to see are You're

0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:02.440
<v Speaker 3>going to see a lot of butts in that photo, right,

0:24:02.600 --> 0:24:06.720
<v Speaker 3>You're going to see photos of women in bikinis with

0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:11.399
<v Speaker 3>the bourgeak khalifa in the background, or some artificial island

0:24:11.480 --> 0:24:14.520
<v Speaker 3>chain in the background, etc. In terms of the information

0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:18.080
<v Speaker 3>coming out, it is almost no different than I believe

0:24:18.560 --> 0:24:21.200
<v Speaker 3>what gets posted on social media is almost no different

0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:22.680
<v Speaker 3>than it would have been, say, a month ago.

0:24:22.960 --> 0:24:25.479
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think your strategy works better in the country

0:24:25.520 --> 0:24:29.000
<v Speaker 4>where there is a broader sort of a more free press, etc.

0:24:29.400 --> 0:24:29.600
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:24:30.240 --> 0:24:32.239
<v Speaker 4>One of the and you guys have probably seen the

0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:34.119
<v Speaker 4>flood of op eds coming out. I think the Wall

0:24:34.160 --> 0:24:37.840
<v Speaker 4>Street Journal bureau chief back there wrote a very very

0:24:37.840 --> 0:24:40.840
<v Speaker 4>spirited piece in defense of the country because it's a

0:24:40.920 --> 0:24:43.120
<v Speaker 4>very easy place to take shots at, right, And we've

0:24:43.119 --> 0:24:45.600
<v Speaker 4>probably taken a couple here in this episode. It's a

0:24:45.680 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 4>very easy place to take shots at because a lot

0:24:47.720 --> 0:24:52.560
<v Speaker 4>of people are judging the bargain from the American lens,

0:24:52.640 --> 0:24:55.320
<v Speaker 4>or let's call it the lens of the depraved West.

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:56.679
<v Speaker 5>That is not the bargain.

0:24:56.760 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 4>They don't care about, you, Joe, And to be honest,

0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:02.480
<v Speaker 4>what they care about is like a wealthy person who

0:25:02.600 --> 0:25:04.800
<v Speaker 4>does not care so much about the sort of the

0:25:04.840 --> 0:25:08.000
<v Speaker 4>broader Western ideals and only cares about the Western ideal

0:25:08.040 --> 0:25:11.880
<v Speaker 4>of capitalism, and then they will provide all the other

0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:15.000
<v Speaker 4>things we talked about, safety, high quality of life in

0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:15.800
<v Speaker 4>one sense.

0:25:15.560 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 5>Et cetera.

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:18.920
<v Speaker 4>So that's very much the case. I think that we

0:25:19.000 --> 0:25:20.760
<v Speaker 4>tend to be as people who've been in the West

0:25:20.800 --> 0:25:23.320
<v Speaker 4>for a long time tend to be more concerned that

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:25.640
<v Speaker 4>we don't get to see the truth as much as

0:25:26.119 --> 0:25:28.359
<v Speaker 4>they don't seem to care as much. What do people

0:25:28.359 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 4>really care about? Just having a safe, chill place to live,

0:25:30.840 --> 0:25:33.359
<v Speaker 4>and the UA does that better than pretty much anyone.

0:25:34.720 --> 0:25:37.239
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but I mean there is a tension here at

0:25:37.280 --> 0:25:39.439
<v Speaker 2>the moment where you could argue that if you're a

0:25:39.480 --> 0:25:42.480
<v Speaker 2>citizen on the ground, like you would like to be

0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:45.840
<v Speaker 2>more informed about missiles flying around. I know they have

0:25:45.880 --> 0:25:50.160
<v Speaker 2>an alert system, but also since you mentioned Instagram, I'm

0:25:50.200 --> 0:25:53.000
<v Speaker 2>now thinking about geotagging. We know that a lot of

0:25:53.000 --> 0:25:56.960
<v Speaker 2>the location services in Dubai and Abu Dhabi aren't working

0:25:56.960 --> 0:26:00.240
<v Speaker 2>at the moment because they're getting jammed because they don't

0:26:00.280 --> 0:26:04.000
<v Speaker 2>want Iranian drones to know where they're going and vice versa.

0:26:04.119 --> 0:26:09.000
<v Speaker 2>So like there is this informational problem and informational control problem.

0:26:09.640 --> 0:26:11.320
<v Speaker 2>But I just want to talk for a second about

0:26:11.359 --> 0:26:16.800
<v Speaker 2>where golf money has actually been flowing externally in the world,

0:26:16.920 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 2>because this has been a big story but still an

0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:21.560
<v Speaker 2>underappreciated one. I think.

0:26:21.840 --> 0:26:24.320
<v Speaker 4>I think it's just a lotifying story of the investment

0:26:24.640 --> 0:26:25.600
<v Speaker 4>escape of the last ten years.

0:26:25.720 --> 0:26:27.800
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, Okay, talk to us about.

0:26:27.600 --> 0:26:32.120
<v Speaker 4>It, Okay, So just broadly GCC sovereigns collectively, so it's

0:26:32.119 --> 0:26:34.679
<v Speaker 4>called them the Big four of the Big five managed

0:26:34.720 --> 0:26:38.159
<v Speaker 4>close to six trillion dollars in AUM. That represents more

0:26:38.160 --> 0:26:41.720
<v Speaker 4>than forty percent of the global sovereign wealth fund total, right,

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:45.280
<v Speaker 4>and increasingly so. I think in the nineties they were

0:26:45.280 --> 0:26:49.399
<v Speaker 4>probably mostly focused on fixed income, right, US bonds being

0:26:50.160 --> 0:26:52.840
<v Speaker 4>a big part of the equation. I think starting in

0:26:52.840 --> 0:26:56.160
<v Speaker 4>the two thousands and definitely in the twenty twenties, they've

0:26:56.200 --> 0:26:59.080
<v Speaker 4>been flowing towards let's call it more exotic cults.

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:00.560
<v Speaker 5>Right there, crypto.

0:27:00.680 --> 0:27:04.119
<v Speaker 4>They're massively invested in venture capital, and at the highest

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:09.680
<v Speaker 4>highest level they are obviously incredibly large real estate investors,

0:27:10.080 --> 0:27:13.399
<v Speaker 4>both as lp SO limited partners in deals, but also

0:27:13.480 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 4>increasingly in what's known as GP staking, which is when

0:27:17.000 --> 0:27:21.080
<v Speaker 4>you buy a piece of a black rock let's say, right,

0:27:21.160 --> 0:27:25.120
<v Speaker 4>and the PIF who oh yeah. So when PNC sold

0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:27.480
<v Speaker 4>a fourteen billion dollar steak in black rock around in

0:27:27.520 --> 0:27:31.600
<v Speaker 4>the pandemic at some point, the buyers were Mobabla Kia

0:27:31.720 --> 0:27:35.040
<v Speaker 4>which is Kuwait, Qia which is Cutar, and PIF, which

0:27:35.040 --> 0:27:38.760
<v Speaker 4>is sud Right, So they are all over the tentacles

0:27:38.800 --> 0:27:42.159
<v Speaker 4>are so incredibly well spread into all aspects of the

0:27:42.160 --> 0:27:45.840
<v Speaker 4>global economy, especially in the United States. And I think

0:27:46.240 --> 0:27:49.159
<v Speaker 4>one question that I have, and I'm sure a lot

0:27:49.200 --> 0:27:53.000
<v Speaker 4>of people have as this conflict drags on, is will

0:27:53.000 --> 0:27:56.600
<v Speaker 4>that bigot stop or at least tighten up, right, because

0:27:56.600 --> 0:27:58.840
<v Speaker 4>I think you wrote about it in your newsletter recently.

0:27:59.160 --> 0:28:04.080
<v Speaker 4>Petro dollars are essentially what creates this this giant pool

0:28:04.119 --> 0:28:10.199
<v Speaker 4>of money, right and right now, Let's say hopefully the

0:28:10.200 --> 0:28:13.119
<v Speaker 4>conflict ends in the next couple weeks. If that is

0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:16.840
<v Speaker 4>the case, the UA can very quickly get out of

0:28:16.840 --> 0:28:19.840
<v Speaker 4>this hole, because it probably has the best functioning government

0:28:20.440 --> 0:28:23.159
<v Speaker 4>in the modern era. If this goes on for months

0:28:23.320 --> 0:28:26.280
<v Speaker 4>and longer, then you have to have those questions. I mean,

0:28:26.359 --> 0:28:27.960
<v Speaker 4>I think it would be really interesting to talk to

0:28:28.000 --> 0:28:30.840
<v Speaker 4>a fund manager right now and see what kind of

0:28:30.840 --> 0:28:34.040
<v Speaker 4>conversations they're having with pif Mahbadla and the likes, because

0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:37.200
<v Speaker 4>those conversations, and we like to say, investors like certainty

0:28:37.240 --> 0:28:38.520
<v Speaker 4>and this ain't it right?

0:28:39.000 --> 0:28:43.440
<v Speaker 3>Okay? There have been the hits to some energy infrastructure,

0:28:43.920 --> 0:28:48.240
<v Speaker 3>like why does it change? How much do you perceive

0:28:48.360 --> 0:28:51.880
<v Speaker 3>that this story of lots of money coming in because

0:28:51.880 --> 0:28:54.320
<v Speaker 3>people carry it in their pockets and then lots of

0:28:54.400 --> 0:28:58.280
<v Speaker 3>money going out because it enters these huge funds that

0:28:58.320 --> 0:29:01.800
<v Speaker 3>are funding everything from me AI to infrastructure to all

0:29:01.880 --> 0:29:05.680
<v Speaker 3>kinds of things. So far in this war, is there

0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 3>anything that disrupts the trajectory of that model?

0:29:10.200 --> 0:29:12.360
<v Speaker 4>So far in this war, there hasn't been anything that

0:29:12.480 --> 0:29:14.680
<v Speaker 4>shows like, hey, this is good, the party's going to stop.

0:29:14.680 --> 0:29:16.960
<v Speaker 4>But I think the cut Thery example that I pointed

0:29:17.000 --> 0:29:19.760
<v Speaker 4>to is the first one. I said, Wow, they're talking

0:29:19.760 --> 0:29:21.960
<v Speaker 4>about seventeen percent of export capacity.

0:29:21.960 --> 0:29:23.160
<v Speaker 5>That is very serious.

0:29:23.600 --> 0:29:26.800
<v Speaker 4>At some point, if not already, Qia has to be

0:29:26.800 --> 0:29:29.480
<v Speaker 4>brought into the room and say okay, let's assess the situation.

0:29:29.640 --> 0:29:30.560
<v Speaker 5>Right, I would.

0:29:30.360 --> 0:29:32.640
<v Speaker 4>Imagine this would come up, and then there are these

0:29:32.720 --> 0:29:34.480
<v Speaker 4>long term beds. I think you had one of my

0:29:34.520 --> 0:29:38.480
<v Speaker 4>favorite song at some point, ziadaoud to talk about, Oh yeah.

0:29:38.200 --> 0:29:39.640
<v Speaker 5>He's so good, he's incredible.

0:29:40.480 --> 0:29:42.560
<v Speaker 3>They're going to get him on a gun and just

0:29:42.600 --> 0:29:45.880
<v Speaker 3>for listeners, he's our colleague here at Bloomberg. Guy, he's

0:29:45.920 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 3>in Bloomberg Economics, right, and so yes, we're going to

0:29:48.880 --> 0:29:50.040
<v Speaker 3>try and have him on ace app.

0:29:50.160 --> 0:29:52.360
<v Speaker 4>He's incredible. I think I first heard of about him

0:29:52.360 --> 0:29:56.520
<v Speaker 4>on Sultano Kosami's cultural much less, which really fun thing

0:29:56.520 --> 0:29:58.000
<v Speaker 4>that he used to do that and he's restarting.

0:29:58.000 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 5>But anyway, you.

0:29:58.880 --> 0:30:02.520
<v Speaker 4>Guys had talked to yeah about the UA's thirty five

0:30:02.560 --> 0:30:06.560
<v Speaker 4>billion dollar investment into kind of the Egyptian coastal development,

0:30:06.600 --> 0:30:09.320
<v Speaker 4>et cetera. Right, Yes, those kind of bets are where

0:30:09.360 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 4>I would say, okay, what is That's just sort of

0:30:11.560 --> 0:30:16.680
<v Speaker 4>a commitment made to doing things in the future, right,

0:30:16.720 --> 0:30:19.280
<v Speaker 4>It's it's like a thirty five billion dollar number that's

0:30:19.560 --> 0:30:21.400
<v Speaker 4>probably going to be over a couple of decades or so.

0:30:22.400 --> 0:30:24.360
<v Speaker 4>When you make those kind of claims, or you make

0:30:24.400 --> 0:30:26.880
<v Speaker 4>that kind of commitment and you see all the stuff

0:30:26.920 --> 0:30:29.760
<v Speaker 4>happening with your own in your own home, maybe there's

0:30:29.760 --> 0:30:32.760
<v Speaker 4>some talk of redeployment, holding back, et cetera. I think

0:30:32.800 --> 0:30:35.080
<v Speaker 4>those are the big things. A lot of the other

0:30:35.120 --> 0:30:37.280
<v Speaker 4>money we're talking about, and we'll talk about private credit

0:30:37.280 --> 0:30:40.800
<v Speaker 4>in a minute, has already been committed, deployed, et cetera. Right,

0:30:41.520 --> 0:30:46.040
<v Speaker 4>But the scale of the UE's specifically's investment in this

0:30:46.520 --> 0:30:48.720
<v Speaker 4>let's call it the frontiers of the new economy, I

0:30:48.760 --> 0:30:52.720
<v Speaker 4>don't think is fully appreciated. I mean MGX, which is

0:30:52.760 --> 0:30:57.160
<v Speaker 4>a state owned state controlled Shake thenun controls this giant,

0:30:57.240 --> 0:30:59.080
<v Speaker 4>sprawling web of at least a one and a half

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:02.680
<v Speaker 4>trillion dollar pool money, the various fund stitched together from

0:31:02.760 --> 0:31:08.680
<v Speaker 4>ubbleb It is in everything, It's absolutely in everything. And

0:31:08.760 --> 0:31:10.520
<v Speaker 4>again this is again in question of how long the

0:31:10.520 --> 0:31:13.160
<v Speaker 4>conflict will go on. I'm not an expert on that,

0:31:13.240 --> 0:31:15.480
<v Speaker 4>but if this drags on for a bit, there has

0:31:15.520 --> 0:31:18.280
<v Speaker 4>to be some reckoning with how that money is flying.

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:38.360
<v Speaker 2>If we actually see an exodus from Dubai, and.

0:31:38.520 --> 0:31:40.400
<v Speaker 4>In terms of population, In.

0:31:40.400 --> 0:31:44.920
<v Speaker 2>Terms of population and anecdotally I certainly have seen people

0:31:45.160 --> 0:31:48.760
<v Speaker 2>leaving in recent weeks. It's hard to tell if they're

0:31:48.800 --> 0:31:51.520
<v Speaker 2>going to leave forever or if they're just planning on

0:31:51.800 --> 0:31:54.960
<v Speaker 2>departing during the worst of the conflict. But if we

0:31:54.960 --> 0:31:57.920
<v Speaker 2>were to see an exodus from Dubai, and presumably real

0:31:58.040 --> 0:32:02.280
<v Speaker 2>estate prices would be impact from that, that could be

0:32:03.000 --> 0:32:05.280
<v Speaker 2>the line of entry where you start to get more

0:32:05.320 --> 0:32:07.280
<v Speaker 2>pressure on government finances.

0:32:07.400 --> 0:32:11.320
<v Speaker 4>Right, yeah, I think more than any other city probably

0:32:11.360 --> 0:32:14.520
<v Speaker 4>in the world, debuys in the sentiment business right, the

0:32:14.560 --> 0:32:20.080
<v Speaker 4>sentiment business. Right, their primary sources of revenue are real estate, tourism,

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:22.640
<v Speaker 4>and commerce. Right, those are the three and those are

0:32:22.680 --> 0:32:27.280
<v Speaker 4>all sentiment based industries. In fact, I don't think I've

0:32:27.280 --> 0:32:31.320
<v Speaker 4>seen I haven't heard personally of any departures in the

0:32:31.320 --> 0:32:33.520
<v Speaker 4>way that I remember in the first Golf War in

0:32:33.560 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 4>the nineties there was a flood of people that left.

0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:38.080
<v Speaker 4>I think that, if anything, the UA is kind of

0:32:38.120 --> 0:32:40.840
<v Speaker 4>being more tested now than back then. But I think

0:32:40.840 --> 0:32:43.920
<v Speaker 4>they've done a really good job of creating long term

0:32:43.920 --> 0:32:46.960
<v Speaker 4>incentives this time around for people to stick around. Things

0:32:47.000 --> 0:32:49.440
<v Speaker 4>like the Golden Visa, which is very similar to the

0:32:49.560 --> 0:32:53.040
<v Speaker 4>EB five visa or the Trump Gold Card. It's kind

0:32:53.040 --> 0:32:56.440
<v Speaker 4>of modeled on the Golden Visa, things like property rights,

0:32:56.920 --> 0:33:00.640
<v Speaker 4>a more robust legal system. They've put all those things together. Now,

0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:04.240
<v Speaker 4>if people do leave, what does that look like? First

0:33:04.280 --> 0:33:07.640
<v Speaker 4>of all, real estate prices. People have been talking about

0:33:07.640 --> 0:33:10.120
<v Speaker 4>a correction in the UA for a long time. If

0:33:10.160 --> 0:33:12.800
<v Speaker 4>people start leaving, that is certainly going to be on

0:33:12.840 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 4>the table, right And then the kind of the back

0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:21.840
<v Speaker 4>infrastructure of financing a lot of these projects will be tested,

0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:25.920
<v Speaker 4>the bond market, the Islamic financing market, et cetera. That's

0:33:25.960 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 4>when things will start getting shaky. And again, one of

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:28.760
<v Speaker 4>the things.

0:33:28.920 --> 0:33:29.320
<v Speaker 5>That is.

0:33:31.240 --> 0:33:34.720
<v Speaker 4>Dubai has got a very, very very robust private market's

0:33:34.720 --> 0:33:37.560
<v Speaker 4>economy now, but at some point or the other there

0:33:37.600 --> 0:33:40.840
<v Speaker 4>is some government involvement in that, right, either by backstopping

0:33:41.120 --> 0:33:44.560
<v Speaker 4>or being an LP and many things, etc. I don't know,

0:33:44.560 --> 0:33:47.080
<v Speaker 4>I think, Tracy, I don't know where AMARS stands now,

0:33:47.120 --> 0:33:50.240
<v Speaker 4>but at some point it was very much an arm

0:33:50.320 --> 0:33:51.760
<v Speaker 4>of the state.

0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:55.280
<v Speaker 2>Now, yeah, yes, I think that's fair.

0:33:55.520 --> 0:33:58.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so I think we'll be if we do see

0:33:58.880 --> 0:34:03.040
<v Speaker 4>an actual exodus or an outflux, then there's a lot

0:34:03.080 --> 0:34:05.760
<v Speaker 4>of questions to be asked about the stability of that market.

0:34:05.800 --> 0:34:09.200
<v Speaker 4>And again, this is an absolutely insane market. So things

0:34:09.239 --> 0:34:11.879
<v Speaker 4>have been selling off plan. There are stories out there

0:34:11.920 --> 0:34:15.319
<v Speaker 4>about eight hundred million dollars worth of product selling in

0:34:15.360 --> 0:34:19.040
<v Speaker 4>a single day. Right, that is a momentum driven like

0:34:19.120 --> 0:34:21.479
<v Speaker 4>I need to get in while this market is still

0:34:21.560 --> 0:34:24.319
<v Speaker 4>semi affordable, and by semi affordable, I think one of

0:34:24.320 --> 0:34:26.960
<v Speaker 4>our the reason we connected in the first place is

0:34:27.000 --> 0:34:29.040
<v Speaker 4>that you have to look at the ultra luxury market

0:34:29.040 --> 0:34:32.720
<v Speaker 4>in the world as a collection of properties as opposed

0:34:32.760 --> 0:34:36.920
<v Speaker 4>to compare them to local comps. Right, and at that level,

0:34:37.239 --> 0:34:39.880
<v Speaker 4>if you look at it from that level, the Dubai,

0:34:40.000 --> 0:34:43.600
<v Speaker 4>Weleve et cetera. Are still a relative bargain, right, So

0:34:45.040 --> 0:34:49.560
<v Speaker 4>this all really is contingent on it maintaining its demand

0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:53.040
<v Speaker 4>from very wealthy people, and safety is obviously that that

0:34:53.200 --> 0:34:54.160
<v Speaker 4>X factor and all of that.

0:34:54.520 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 3>You could make the argument that the UAE has the

0:34:57.120 --> 0:34:59.840
<v Speaker 3>best functioning government in the world. And I think this

0:35:00.080 --> 0:35:04.719
<v Speaker 3>is very important because, particularly in the West, that is

0:35:04.840 --> 0:35:07.840
<v Speaker 3>not a comment that will be uttered in a million

0:35:07.960 --> 0:35:12.120
<v Speaker 3>years in the United States, in the UK and France,

0:35:12.440 --> 0:35:15.000
<v Speaker 3>in Europe, et cetera. I mean, the idea of a

0:35:15.040 --> 0:35:20.560
<v Speaker 3>functioning government feels almost like what's that? Those words don't

0:35:20.600 --> 0:35:24.920
<v Speaker 3>even go together anymore. Could you explain a little bit,

0:35:25.640 --> 0:35:29.480
<v Speaker 3>you know, how that works. We often think that governments,

0:35:29.480 --> 0:35:34.440
<v Speaker 3>particularly non democracies, are riven with corruption and have no

0:35:34.560 --> 0:35:38.200
<v Speaker 3>accountability and so forth, and there are all kinds of

0:35:38.320 --> 0:35:42.480
<v Speaker 3>reasons on paper to think that that would be impossible.

0:35:42.960 --> 0:35:46.080
<v Speaker 3>How would you describe the sort of organizing principle of

0:35:46.120 --> 0:35:51.560
<v Speaker 3>the government such that it doesn't it doesn't collapse whatever

0:35:51.640 --> 0:35:55.160
<v Speaker 3>it is. What is it about how it's structured where

0:35:55.320 --> 0:35:58.600
<v Speaker 3>actually public sector is taken very seriously and effective.

0:35:59.160 --> 0:36:02.359
<v Speaker 5>Okay, it's a heavy question, but let's try. Right.

0:36:03.080 --> 0:36:06.240
<v Speaker 4>There's two elements to this. One is a functioning society,

0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:09.440
<v Speaker 4>in which things just seem to work, and the UE

0:36:09.600 --> 0:36:13.520
<v Speaker 4>government has done, probably again an incredible job of doing that.

0:36:14.200 --> 0:36:15.960
<v Speaker 4>You want to set up a business, you can do it.

0:36:15.960 --> 0:36:17.839
<v Speaker 4>You want to make money, it's yours. No one takes

0:36:17.880 --> 0:36:19.800
<v Speaker 4>it away from you. This has always been true.

0:36:19.640 --> 0:36:20.040
<v Speaker 5>Et cetera.

0:36:20.160 --> 0:36:23.600
<v Speaker 4>Right, if a crime happens, it is handled very quickly.

0:36:23.920 --> 0:36:26.440
<v Speaker 4>That's one part of it, right, that's the actual tangible

0:36:27.000 --> 0:36:29.360
<v Speaker 4>on the ground. They build roads all the time. You

0:36:29.400 --> 0:36:32.080
<v Speaker 4>can see the progress. There's never a pothole inside. You

0:36:32.120 --> 0:36:34.839
<v Speaker 4>will never see any vagrants, you will never see any

0:36:34.920 --> 0:36:37.759
<v Speaker 4>violent crime, et cetera. So that is the as a

0:36:37.800 --> 0:36:40.520
<v Speaker 4>person living here that makes half a million dollars a

0:36:40.600 --> 0:36:44.400
<v Speaker 4>year and expects a certain quality of life, the government

0:36:44.440 --> 0:36:46.319
<v Speaker 4>is giving me that quality of life. That's one part

0:36:46.320 --> 0:36:48.040
<v Speaker 4>of it. The other part of it is a little

0:36:48.080 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 4>more state crafty, right, which is the illusion that is

0:36:51.080 --> 0:36:53.240
<v Speaker 4>created that this is the best government in the world,

0:36:53.480 --> 0:36:55.720
<v Speaker 4>the illusion that is created that this is the safest

0:36:55.760 --> 0:36:58.279
<v Speaker 4>place in the world, and then is repeated and amplified

0:36:58.320 --> 0:37:00.839
<v Speaker 4>by everyone who lives there, because that's part of the deal.

0:37:01.040 --> 0:37:02.400
<v Speaker 5>Right, you go there.

0:37:03.800 --> 0:37:06.640
<v Speaker 4>Anyone, and again they do an incredible job of creating

0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:11.960
<v Speaker 4>that society everyone from athletes to actors to footballers, et cetera,

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:16.680
<v Speaker 4>will throw in a plug for Dubai randomly, seemingly randomly

0:37:16.719 --> 0:37:19.480
<v Speaker 4>in any conversation they have, And I think part of

0:37:19.480 --> 0:37:21.440
<v Speaker 4>this is because there's gratitude, and part of it is

0:37:21.480 --> 0:37:23.160
<v Speaker 4>because it seems like that's part of the deal.

0:37:23.680 --> 0:37:26.520
<v Speaker 2>Let's go back to private credit for a second, because

0:37:26.560 --> 0:37:28.360
<v Speaker 2>this is one of the reasons we really wanted to

0:37:28.400 --> 0:37:30.279
<v Speaker 2>talk to you, because a lot of that money, you know,

0:37:30.360 --> 0:37:33.880
<v Speaker 2>direct lending, has found its way into your world in

0:37:34.120 --> 0:37:38.799
<v Speaker 2>various ways. It's hard to gauge how active or how

0:37:38.840 --> 0:37:42.319
<v Speaker 2>big the GCC presence in that market has been, but

0:37:42.440 --> 0:37:43.480
<v Speaker 2>what's your sense of it.

0:37:44.480 --> 0:37:48.280
<v Speaker 4>I think it's it's been fairly large and only growing.

0:37:48.320 --> 0:37:50.359
<v Speaker 4>And I think a good example to look at as

0:37:50.440 --> 0:37:54.160
<v Speaker 4>something like Mabadla, Right. Mabudla is one of the more prominent.

0:37:54.200 --> 0:37:57.719
<v Speaker 4>I think it's three hundred and fifty billion dollars ish aum,

0:37:58.200 --> 0:38:01.920
<v Speaker 4>but is incredibly aggressive in the credit space. They recently

0:38:02.000 --> 0:38:05.160
<v Speaker 4>did a full takeover Fortress, which is a big player

0:38:05.200 --> 0:38:09.000
<v Speaker 4>in commercial real estate credit. They have been and I

0:38:09.080 --> 0:38:11.000
<v Speaker 4>think we talked about this in your in your newsletter

0:38:11.040 --> 0:38:14.759
<v Speaker 4>as well. Abdew in general has been getting very much

0:38:15.000 --> 0:38:19.160
<v Speaker 4>into the debt game, not only directly by purchasing companies

0:38:19.200 --> 0:38:22.759
<v Speaker 4>like Fortress, but also by being an anchor LP in

0:38:22.800 --> 0:38:25.040
<v Speaker 4>a lot of the private credit funds that we see.

0:38:25.360 --> 0:38:26.319
<v Speaker 5>Right, So.

0:38:27.840 --> 0:38:30.719
<v Speaker 4>Blackrock and I think this all comes back to a

0:38:30.719 --> 0:38:33.680
<v Speaker 4>trend that we like to call aum gobbling. Right, So

0:38:34.480 --> 0:38:36.759
<v Speaker 4>you cannot there's no such thing as a good mid

0:38:36.800 --> 0:38:39.680
<v Speaker 4>sized fund anymore. Everyone's got to be Brookefield, or everyone's

0:38:39.680 --> 0:38:43.760
<v Speaker 4>got to be Blackstone, and so Sixth Street. I think Fortress,

0:38:44.200 --> 0:38:46.799
<v Speaker 4>this co CEO made the statement, which is like, for

0:38:46.960 --> 0:38:49.480
<v Speaker 4>us to stay relevant, we need to keep growing assets.

0:38:49.520 --> 0:38:51.040
<v Speaker 4>It's not enough to run the book that.

0:38:51.000 --> 0:38:52.799
<v Speaker 5>We have and do it well. We just have to

0:38:52.840 --> 0:38:54.719
<v Speaker 5>keep gobbling up other parts of things.

0:38:54.760 --> 0:38:57.200
<v Speaker 4>So if you had a dedicated fund, let's say you

0:38:57.239 --> 0:39:00.520
<v Speaker 4>had a senior housing and affordable housing fund, and you're

0:39:00.560 --> 0:39:03.000
<v Speaker 4>doing very well, you have two billion dollars you're running,

0:39:03.040 --> 0:39:06.279
<v Speaker 4>you're incredibly good at that. Eventually the call comes in

0:39:06.320 --> 0:39:08.000
<v Speaker 4>from a Fortress or a Sixth Street, etc.

0:39:08.560 --> 0:39:09.319
<v Speaker 5>And you're picked up.

0:39:09.840 --> 0:39:12.120
<v Speaker 4>To make these kind of things happen, you need an

0:39:12.160 --> 0:39:16.000
<v Speaker 4>incredible amount of liquidity slash capital, and all roads lead

0:39:16.000 --> 0:39:18.080
<v Speaker 4>to able when it comes to that kind of thing right.

0:39:18.120 --> 0:39:23.200
<v Speaker 4>So Bloomberg had an amazing article about how to meet

0:39:23.280 --> 0:39:25.160
<v Speaker 4>the World's one and a half trillion dollar man. I

0:39:25.200 --> 0:39:27.480
<v Speaker 4>think it was called, and it was about Shike Tachnun

0:39:27.560 --> 0:39:31.960
<v Speaker 4>and his entire web of companies and amazing that.

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:32.520
<v Speaker 5>Kind of figure.

0:39:32.560 --> 0:39:34.840
<v Speaker 4>And once you're in with someone like the Shee or

0:39:34.840 --> 0:39:37.279
<v Speaker 4>one of his deputies, you have access to kind of

0:39:37.400 --> 0:39:41.360
<v Speaker 4>unlimited amount of capital. Larry Fink is in what I

0:39:41.440 --> 0:39:44.320
<v Speaker 4>would venture to guess every month, Ray Daallyio. There's that

0:39:44.520 --> 0:39:47.160
<v Speaker 4>iconic shot of him and the Condura sitting there at

0:39:47.160 --> 0:39:51.520
<v Speaker 4>the table with all the movers and shakers. They have

0:39:51.719 --> 0:39:56.719
<v Speaker 4>sort of infiltrated every aspect of private credit when it

0:39:56.719 --> 0:39:59.080
<v Speaker 4>comes to real estate. The name keeps coming up, and

0:39:59.080 --> 0:40:01.440
<v Speaker 4>if the name doesn't come up directly, it comes up

0:40:01.480 --> 0:40:02.960
<v Speaker 4>as a backer of a lot of these.

0:40:02.800 --> 0:40:04.080
<v Speaker 5>Companies that we talked about.

0:40:04.320 --> 0:40:08.120
<v Speaker 4>AI Infrastructure PIF, I believe is the anchor investor in

0:40:09.440 --> 0:40:12.440
<v Speaker 4>Blackstone I'm sorry, and PIF is the anchor investor in

0:40:12.520 --> 0:40:16.200
<v Speaker 4>Blackstone's Infrastructure Fund, which is their quote lends into the

0:40:16.239 --> 0:40:20.480
<v Speaker 4>AI boom. MGX is a partner in this really stop

0:40:20.520 --> 0:40:25.200
<v Speaker 4>and start government project the US government called Stargate with

0:40:25.360 --> 0:40:28.120
<v Speaker 4>open Ai etc. It's had a bit of a mixed run.

0:40:28.200 --> 0:40:31.160
<v Speaker 4>But MGX is an anchor investor in that. MGX is

0:40:31.200 --> 0:40:34.760
<v Speaker 4>also an investor with Microsoft and Blackrock in that giant

0:40:34.960 --> 0:40:40.160
<v Speaker 4>AI venture. Right, so there's just the odds that UBW

0:40:40.440 --> 0:40:42.480
<v Speaker 4>or one of the Middle Easterns is involved when it

0:40:42.480 --> 0:40:44.480
<v Speaker 4>comes to these big infrastructure bets.

0:40:44.320 --> 0:40:44.960
<v Speaker 5>Is very high.

0:40:45.080 --> 0:40:49.040
<v Speaker 3>The Golf States didn't ask for this war, at least

0:40:49.320 --> 0:40:54.800
<v Speaker 3>the vast majority talk to us about sort of regional politics.

0:40:54.880 --> 0:40:57.840
<v Speaker 3>And obviously, you know, we know that it may have

0:40:57.920 --> 0:41:02.280
<v Speaker 3>been his first foreign visit. Right taking the presidency, Trump

0:41:02.400 --> 0:41:06.000
<v Speaker 3>quickly went to the golf and you know even at

0:41:06.000 --> 0:41:07.040
<v Speaker 3>the sword dance.

0:41:06.840 --> 0:41:08.239
<v Speaker 5>The iconic sword dance thing.

0:41:08.200 --> 0:41:12.880
<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, the orb yes, yeah, but still the same

0:41:13.120 --> 0:41:19.319
<v Speaker 3>same deal. You get this impression that like Trump has

0:41:19.400 --> 0:41:21.080
<v Speaker 3>golf tastes, oh right.

0:41:21.400 --> 0:41:24.160
<v Speaker 4>That I mean even even before all this, right, he

0:41:24.400 --> 0:41:27.239
<v Speaker 4>his brand was actually so the way that people in

0:41:27.280 --> 0:41:31.160
<v Speaker 4>New York think of the Trump brand is tacky luxury,

0:41:31.600 --> 0:41:32.480
<v Speaker 4>tacky luxury.

0:41:32.560 --> 0:41:35.040
<v Speaker 5>Right in the golf, it's thought of his luxury luxury.

0:41:35.440 --> 0:41:38.520
<v Speaker 4>Yeah right, It's it's always been there. There's sympatico in

0:41:38.560 --> 0:41:43.120
<v Speaker 4>so many ways. Uh, from kind of having incredible control

0:41:43.239 --> 0:41:46.080
<v Speaker 4>over their societies, which is something that our president has

0:41:46.200 --> 0:41:49.640
<v Speaker 4>has always kind of aspired to, right, and some would

0:41:49.640 --> 0:41:53.239
<v Speaker 4>say he's doing pretty well on that front. But there's

0:41:53.280 --> 0:41:57.120
<v Speaker 4>always been that kind of sympatico between Donald Trump and

0:41:57.200 --> 0:42:00.600
<v Speaker 4>the golf leaders. Uh, there has been friction on the

0:42:00.640 --> 0:42:01.680
<v Speaker 4>front recently, though.

0:42:01.960 --> 0:42:04.000
<v Speaker 3>Well, this is what I'm trying, This is what I'm

0:42:04.040 --> 0:42:08.480
<v Speaker 3>getting at, Like, could that change again, massive damage to

0:42:09.040 --> 0:42:13.480
<v Speaker 3>their domestic economies for a war that they certainly didn't

0:42:13.520 --> 0:42:17.879
<v Speaker 3>ask for. Is there any prospect of in the wake

0:42:17.960 --> 0:42:23.040
<v Speaker 3>of this, whenever that ends, some slightly new trajectory between

0:42:23.600 --> 0:42:24.880
<v Speaker 3>the US and the Gulf.

0:42:25.239 --> 0:42:28.279
<v Speaker 4>Impossible to tell if the war drags on, but for now,

0:42:28.320 --> 0:42:30.120
<v Speaker 4>I don't think so. I think they've been pretty in

0:42:30.160 --> 0:42:34.520
<v Speaker 4>lockstep with pretty in lockstep with the US's policy on this. Right,

0:42:34.520 --> 0:42:36.799
<v Speaker 4>There's there's been reports, and this is above my pay

0:42:36.800 --> 0:42:39.279
<v Speaker 4>grade and above my beat, but there's been reports that

0:42:39.880 --> 0:42:42.160
<v Speaker 4>Saudi was very much pushing for this this.

0:42:42.400 --> 0:42:44.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, as the one exception, you sort of get the

0:42:44.920 --> 0:42:47.359
<v Speaker 3>impression that Saudi was also one of.

0:42:47.800 --> 0:42:51.120
<v Speaker 4>Right, and then then the country over correct. The GCC

0:42:51.160 --> 0:42:55.000
<v Speaker 4>countries often don't see to I, especially on Iran. Right,

0:42:55.040 --> 0:42:58.359
<v Speaker 4>there's there's a fair amount of friction between the two powerhouses,

0:42:58.800 --> 0:43:00.960
<v Speaker 4>the UA and Saudi arab on a lot.

0:43:00.840 --> 0:43:02.480
<v Speaker 5>Of geopolitical issues.

0:43:02.520 --> 0:43:05.280
<v Speaker 4>They're they're brothers, but kind of not right as well,

0:43:06.120 --> 0:43:09.760
<v Speaker 4>and there's a lot of rivalry in general for capital

0:43:09.880 --> 0:43:13.040
<v Speaker 4>and the joke I think even when Tracy lived there

0:43:13.120 --> 0:43:15.279
<v Speaker 4>was probably you you lived in Dubai and you would

0:43:15.320 --> 0:43:19.319
<v Speaker 4>go consultant WW sorry, in Saudi for four days a week.

0:43:20.440 --> 0:43:23.160
<v Speaker 4>That's not so much the thing anymore. Sally's been pushing

0:43:23.880 --> 0:43:26.520
<v Speaker 4>people to live there and you know, upon threat of

0:43:26.560 --> 0:43:29.520
<v Speaker 4>losing business, et cetera. But I think back to this

0:43:29.640 --> 0:43:32.920
<v Speaker 4>fracture or potential fracture between the US government and the GCC.

0:43:33.440 --> 0:43:37.960
<v Speaker 4>We haven't seen anything from government level friction yet. We

0:43:38.120 --> 0:43:42.840
<v Speaker 4>have seen, though, a couple of very influential businessmen, Kalfelptur,

0:43:43.000 --> 0:43:46.480
<v Speaker 4>who was a big developer player in the in the UAE,

0:43:47.200 --> 0:43:51.520
<v Speaker 4>had had put out a letter kind of excoriating Trump

0:43:51.640 --> 0:43:55.080
<v Speaker 4>for starting this conflict at the best of at the

0:43:55.080 --> 0:43:57.600
<v Speaker 4>behest of Israel, right, and this was a this was

0:43:57.640 --> 0:44:02.120
<v Speaker 4>a big, big deal for a statesman level businessman in

0:44:02.160 --> 0:44:05.560
<v Speaker 4>the UA to talk about this. The letter was at

0:44:05.560 --> 0:44:08.960
<v Speaker 4>some point redacted, right, and then and then Hoaptor sat

0:44:09.000 --> 0:44:12.000
<v Speaker 4>down with the Washington Post and did this incredibly entertaining

0:44:12.120 --> 0:44:15.200
<v Speaker 4>interview about you know, it's more about kind of the

0:44:15.200 --> 0:44:17.760
<v Speaker 4>cohesion for the long term, et cetera. It doesn't agree

0:44:17.760 --> 0:44:20.200
<v Speaker 4>with the war, but I think in general pissing off

0:44:20.239 --> 0:44:22.480
<v Speaker 4>your American allies at this point is not good, et cetera,

0:44:22.520 --> 0:44:25.759
<v Speaker 4>et cetera. So we have seen some of that. Now again, Joe,

0:44:25.840 --> 0:44:29.480
<v Speaker 4>your question is really about how long this lasts. For now,

0:44:29.520 --> 0:44:31.920
<v Speaker 4>they can kind of keep things going. But if this

0:44:32.080 --> 0:44:35.279
<v Speaker 4>is a month's long conflict or longer, God forbid, then

0:44:35.520 --> 0:44:38.240
<v Speaker 4>then there might be a little bit more of a fracture.

0:44:38.320 --> 0:44:38.520
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:44:40.239 --> 0:44:42.960
<v Speaker 2>Just on that note, what are you watching in terms of,

0:44:43.080 --> 0:44:47.520
<v Speaker 2>I guess, gauging the overall health of the Dubai property market,

0:44:47.640 --> 0:44:52.560
<v Speaker 2>but also the overall health or circulation of that oil

0:44:52.600 --> 0:44:54.560
<v Speaker 2>money in the wider property space.

0:44:54.960 --> 0:44:56.799
<v Speaker 4>So in the first one about the overall health of

0:44:56.840 --> 0:44:58.920
<v Speaker 4>the Dubai property market, I think one thing you want

0:44:58.960 --> 0:45:04.440
<v Speaker 4>to pay attention to is if any planned or announced projects,

0:45:04.480 --> 0:45:07.279
<v Speaker 4>if they are kind of continuing on the timeline that

0:45:07.320 --> 0:45:10.000
<v Speaker 4>they talked about. Again, a lot of these depend kind

0:45:10.000 --> 0:45:14.719
<v Speaker 4>of like Miami's economy on pre sales, right, they get

0:45:14.760 --> 0:45:18.080
<v Speaker 4>commitments and then they go build the thing and the views.

0:45:18.120 --> 0:45:20.880
<v Speaker 4>I mean, these things get more and more fantastical. Tracy,

0:45:20.920 --> 0:45:22.120
<v Speaker 4>this is very much for you.

0:45:22.200 --> 0:45:24.920
<v Speaker 5>There is one. I'm gonna pull it up. Hang on.

0:45:25.880 --> 0:45:28.080
<v Speaker 4>There's a tower that's coming up which is called Aiwa,

0:45:28.880 --> 0:45:32.000
<v Speaker 4>which is twenty one story resident a twenty one story

0:45:32.040 --> 0:45:35.560
<v Speaker 4>residential tower designed to look like the Hallelujah Mountains from

0:45:35.600 --> 0:45:36.600
<v Speaker 4>the Avatar movies.

0:45:36.800 --> 0:45:39.279
<v Speaker 2>All right, that's going Why do you say that once

0:45:39.320 --> 0:45:39.560
<v Speaker 2>for me?

0:45:39.640 --> 0:45:41.719
<v Speaker 4>Because you love this stuff, You've always won I do.

0:45:41.880 --> 0:45:44.360
<v Speaker 2>I do, like I wouldn't want to live there, but

0:45:44.440 --> 0:45:46.120
<v Speaker 2>I like hearing about it for sure.

0:45:46.239 --> 0:45:49.440
<v Speaker 4>There are doing a lot of interesting innovations with engineering

0:45:49.440 --> 0:45:53.520
<v Speaker 4>and design. They're doing Manhattan like skinny super talls now

0:45:53.560 --> 0:45:57.640
<v Speaker 4>as well. So they have a tower coming up that's

0:45:57.680 --> 0:46:01.799
<v Speaker 4>a seventeen to one ratio, which is the kind of

0:46:01.840 --> 0:46:04.239
<v Speaker 4>skinny pencil tower that you would see on Billionaire's row.

0:46:04.880 --> 0:46:07.480
<v Speaker 4>But on billionaire's row land is such a crazy constraint

0:46:07.760 --> 0:46:11.040
<v Speaker 4>in Dubai. It hasn't really been until Yeah, that's.

0:46:10.920 --> 0:46:13.239
<v Speaker 2>Wild to think that they're doing that now, that like,

0:46:13.440 --> 0:46:15.000
<v Speaker 2>that's that's how far it's gone.

0:46:15.200 --> 0:46:18.319
<v Speaker 4>Well, I think it's I think it's a little bit

0:46:18.360 --> 0:46:21.680
<v Speaker 4>of both. I think it is one a financial constraint

0:46:21.680 --> 0:46:24.479
<v Speaker 4>that they're trying to solve for and the other like, hey,

0:46:24.520 --> 0:46:26.439
<v Speaker 4>if this is you know, this is all the rage

0:46:26.440 --> 0:46:29.279
<v Speaker 4>in New York, then why not do it here with

0:46:29.520 --> 0:46:32.680
<v Speaker 4>with the government or with the sorry with the UE.

0:46:32.719 --> 0:46:35.759
<v Speaker 4>It's hard to tell when it's being done for sort

0:46:35.800 --> 0:46:38.359
<v Speaker 4>of financial prudence and when it's being done because someone

0:46:38.360 --> 0:46:39.359
<v Speaker 4>else somewhere else did it.

0:46:41.160 --> 0:46:43.960
<v Speaker 3>What has been the strategy I mean, okay, the ultra

0:46:44.120 --> 0:46:48.560
<v Speaker 3>rich going moving to moving to the golf, moving to

0:46:48.640 --> 0:46:55.480
<v Speaker 3>the GCC states. How active is the push buy to

0:46:55.560 --> 0:46:59.359
<v Speaker 3>get just the merely rich or the sort of you know,

0:46:59.640 --> 0:47:02.919
<v Speaker 3>as they would say, the mass affluent, et cetera. Has

0:47:03.000 --> 0:47:06.399
<v Speaker 3>there been a push to sort of like make more

0:47:06.520 --> 0:47:10.799
<v Speaker 3>people around the world aware of the fact that they

0:47:10.840 --> 0:47:13.120
<v Speaker 3>can move to Dubai and cut their tax bill and

0:47:13.160 --> 0:47:15.080
<v Speaker 3>live a much more comfortable life and better weather.

0:47:15.239 --> 0:47:17.920
<v Speaker 4>I would say it's almost a strategic imperative of the government.

0:47:18.000 --> 0:47:21.120
<v Speaker 4>It is such a big initiative to get not just

0:47:21.280 --> 0:47:23.560
<v Speaker 4>your Ray Dalios of the world, which is much more

0:47:23.560 --> 0:47:27.279
<v Speaker 4>of a personal relationship banking relationship, but to get those

0:47:27.320 --> 0:47:31.560
<v Speaker 4>families that are down for this lifestyle to come over

0:47:31.600 --> 0:47:34.200
<v Speaker 4>when you enter the Dubai Airport now, which is one

0:47:34.239 --> 0:47:36.600
<v Speaker 4>of the busiest airports in the world, you will see

0:47:36.600 --> 0:47:41.560
<v Speaker 4>these giant, absolutely giant interactive ads about all ethnicities used

0:47:41.600 --> 0:47:45.120
<v Speaker 4>to see typically you would see white people in these ads.

0:47:45.360 --> 0:47:48.279
<v Speaker 4>Right now, I just went a couple months ago or

0:47:48.280 --> 0:47:52.560
<v Speaker 4>a month ago. You're seeing Usbeks, You're seeing Canadians, you know,

0:47:52.719 --> 0:47:56.600
<v Speaker 4>and it says specifically Canadians, this is your Dubai usbex,

0:47:56.640 --> 0:47:59.560
<v Speaker 4>this is your Dubai, et cetera. They are pushing this

0:47:59.680 --> 0:48:02.960
<v Speaker 4>beyond and I wouldn't be surprised if there's like an

0:48:03.040 --> 0:48:06.160
<v Speaker 4>arm of the government dedicated just to what you're talking

0:48:06.200 --> 0:48:07.440
<v Speaker 4>about and just.

0:48:07.400 --> 0:48:10.600
<v Speaker 2>Going back to thinking about, you know, warning signs of

0:48:10.640 --> 0:48:13.360
<v Speaker 2>trouble ahead. What are you looking for in that global

0:48:13.560 --> 0:48:14.440
<v Speaker 2>capital space.

0:48:15.440 --> 0:48:17.960
<v Speaker 4>A lot of these conversations happen behind closed doors, but

0:48:18.000 --> 0:48:20.160
<v Speaker 4>I think one of the things that we're doing is

0:48:20.200 --> 0:48:23.399
<v Speaker 4>talking to fund managers and seeing if there's any kind

0:48:23.480 --> 0:48:28.160
<v Speaker 4>of hesitance expressed by these LPs right whether it's in

0:48:28.480 --> 0:48:32.680
<v Speaker 4>snaking conversations or backing funds. That's that's probably where you're

0:48:32.680 --> 0:48:35.359
<v Speaker 4>going to see the most pressure, which is not now,

0:48:35.400 --> 0:48:38.040
<v Speaker 4>and in fundraising, not now is as good as no right.

0:48:38.480 --> 0:48:41.680
<v Speaker 4>So if you start seeing those conversations where God knows

0:48:41.719 --> 0:48:44.799
<v Speaker 4>Brookfield is going to raise another distressed credit fund, and

0:48:44.880 --> 0:48:47.759
<v Speaker 4>the conversations with Lubble Ubby or with Saudi, etc. Get

0:48:47.800 --> 0:48:51.080
<v Speaker 4>a little bit more, a little bit more wishy washy,

0:48:51.480 --> 0:48:55.560
<v Speaker 4>that is something definitely to look out for, right, because

0:48:56.040 --> 0:49:02.360
<v Speaker 4>without without ongoing constant moment him, this doesn't work and

0:49:03.520 --> 0:49:07.240
<v Speaker 4>the scale of capital needed. I think a great example

0:49:07.320 --> 0:49:10.279
<v Speaker 4>is that of God. If that electronic arts LBO deal

0:49:10.480 --> 0:49:13.520
<v Speaker 4>was going on now, the EA Sports formerly EA Sports

0:49:13.520 --> 0:49:16.840
<v Speaker 4>Electronic Arts. It was a fifty five billion dollar LBO,

0:49:16.920 --> 0:49:19.200
<v Speaker 4>which I believe is the largest in history. It was

0:49:19.239 --> 0:49:24.200
<v Speaker 4>broken randomly by Jared Frickin. Kushner right and PIF wrote

0:49:24.239 --> 0:49:28.080
<v Speaker 4>a twenty nine billion dollar equity check into this transaction

0:49:28.200 --> 0:49:31.319
<v Speaker 4>to take I think majority control of EA. Would that

0:49:31.440 --> 0:49:34.680
<v Speaker 4>deal have happened in this environment, I venture to say

0:49:34.680 --> 0:49:36.120
<v Speaker 4>it would have taken a little bit long down.

0:49:38.120 --> 0:49:40.080
<v Speaker 2>All right, Hitten, We're going to have to leave it there.

0:49:40.200 --> 0:49:42.880
<v Speaker 2>But this has been a fantastic conversation. Thank you so

0:49:43.000 --> 0:49:44.520
<v Speaker 2>much for coming back from myos.

0:49:44.560 --> 0:49:45.920
<v Speaker 4>Really appreciate it, my pleasure.

0:49:46.000 --> 0:49:50.120
<v Speaker 5>Thank you, Tracy, Thanks Joe, Joe.

0:49:50.120 --> 0:49:53.040
<v Speaker 2>Obviously a lot that stood out from that conversation. But

0:49:53.120 --> 0:49:54.799
<v Speaker 2>one of the things I was thinking was that sort

0:49:54.800 --> 0:49:59.200
<v Speaker 2>of flywheel dynamic that Hitten was talking about towards the end,

0:49:59.280 --> 0:50:02.560
<v Speaker 2>and also just the interrelatedness of all of this. So

0:50:02.880 --> 0:50:05.960
<v Speaker 2>I think that one of the difficulties is if you're

0:50:05.960 --> 0:50:09.160
<v Speaker 2>a sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi or Dubai at

0:50:09.200 --> 0:50:12.600
<v Speaker 2>the moment, and you've invested a lot in private credit,

0:50:13.040 --> 0:50:17.640
<v Speaker 2>a lot in tech those areas, even independently of what's

0:50:17.920 --> 0:50:21.239
<v Speaker 2>happening in the golf, there are concerns around that at

0:50:21.239 --> 0:50:23.839
<v Speaker 2>the moment, right, And then if you think that, well,

0:50:23.880 --> 0:50:26.440
<v Speaker 2>maybe the UAE won't be able to sell as much

0:50:26.520 --> 0:50:29.319
<v Speaker 2>oil as it has in the past, or maybe some

0:50:29.440 --> 0:50:32.000
<v Speaker 2>of that tax and tourism revenue is going to start

0:50:32.040 --> 0:50:36.440
<v Speaker 2>going down because there are drone strikes in various cities,

0:50:37.600 --> 0:50:39.880
<v Speaker 2>that's I think where you start to get the potential

0:50:39.920 --> 0:50:41.480
<v Speaker 2>for some real weakness.

0:50:41.800 --> 0:50:44.759
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean you just think, like, how much does

0:50:44.800 --> 0:50:48.120
<v Speaker 3>it really take to change the trajectory, and does it

0:50:48.239 --> 0:50:51.279
<v Speaker 3>you know, could it be as simple as a meaningful

0:50:51.400 --> 0:50:54.719
<v Speaker 3>down shift. I'd say the war ends fairly soon, but

0:50:54.960 --> 0:50:57.520
<v Speaker 3>you know what if you had a year or two

0:50:57.560 --> 0:50:59.920
<v Speaker 3>in the wake of it, where there was a significant

0:51:00.200 --> 0:51:03.720
<v Speaker 3>decrease in the amount of capital flowing into the region

0:51:04.320 --> 0:51:08.759
<v Speaker 3>relative to what's expected. What are the ripple effects of that?

0:51:09.320 --> 0:51:12.680
<v Speaker 3>And again, you know, it's hard to get really good

0:51:12.760 --> 0:51:15.920
<v Speaker 3>information from what you said in the beginning, and I

0:51:15.960 --> 0:51:20.560
<v Speaker 3>think this is really key. I do think it's hard

0:51:20.600 --> 0:51:25.040
<v Speaker 3>to tell from the outside world. Like you see plenty

0:51:25.040 --> 0:51:27.560
<v Speaker 3>of pictures where it all sort of looks the same,

0:51:27.920 --> 0:51:29.799
<v Speaker 3>but you don't really know about the truth of that.

0:51:30.000 --> 0:51:33.279
<v Speaker 3>And I think right now, in this moment, there are

0:51:33.320 --> 0:51:35.960
<v Speaker 3>probably plenty of people it's like, you know what, I

0:51:36.120 --> 0:51:39.520
<v Speaker 3>like the idea of moving from England, and I think

0:51:39.560 --> 0:51:44.000
<v Speaker 3>it's really big. It's it's actually like our government doesn't

0:51:44.040 --> 0:51:46.920
<v Speaker 3>pay attention to anything big going on domestically or whatever.

0:51:47.239 --> 0:51:49.080
<v Speaker 3>I know that this is a very big part of

0:51:49.280 --> 0:51:53.600
<v Speaker 3>UK politics right now, the flight of the well off

0:51:53.880 --> 0:51:56.920
<v Speaker 3>who they're already under a tremendous fiscal strain. And if

0:51:56.920 --> 0:51:59.239
<v Speaker 3>you have money and you don't like the fact that

0:51:59.239 --> 0:52:02.080
<v Speaker 3>half of your money is going to the government and

0:52:02.239 --> 0:52:05.120
<v Speaker 3>all of these sort of pathologies and dysfunctions that we

0:52:05.200 --> 0:52:09.080
<v Speaker 3>see in the UK, it has become an extremely popular

0:52:09.120 --> 0:52:11.720
<v Speaker 3>option to just DeCamp to Dubai.

0:52:11.800 --> 0:52:14.680
<v Speaker 2>But this is the other thing if you're targeting, if

0:52:14.680 --> 0:52:19.360
<v Speaker 2>you're trying to attract an extremely wealthy mobile population into

0:52:19.400 --> 0:52:23.839
<v Speaker 2>your city. The converse of that is that they can

0:52:23.920 --> 0:52:28.320
<v Speaker 2>leave right like if for whatever reason they don't feel safe,

0:52:28.400 --> 0:52:30.160
<v Speaker 2>or they just think, like, you know what, now's the

0:52:30.200 --> 0:52:33.520
<v Speaker 2>time for a really long vacation somewhere else in the world,

0:52:33.800 --> 0:52:34.319
<v Speaker 2>they can go.

0:52:34.600 --> 0:52:38.200
<v Speaker 3>And I really think that again, you know this meme

0:52:38.320 --> 0:52:40.520
<v Speaker 3>the globe, there's going to be a point where there's

0:52:40.560 --> 0:52:43.880
<v Speaker 3>this global permanent underclass, which is a phrase, and I

0:52:44.000 --> 0:52:49.319
<v Speaker 3>do feel as though Dubai is ground zero for this

0:52:49.400 --> 0:52:54.239
<v Speaker 3>phenomenon where you have an extremely rich, well off part

0:52:54.280 --> 0:52:59.920
<v Speaker 3>of the society that has access to every luxury experience

0:53:00.040 --> 0:53:03.120
<v Speaker 3>that you could possibly think of, and then there's this

0:53:03.320 --> 0:53:06.920
<v Speaker 3>layer of people that will never ascend to that despite

0:53:06.960 --> 0:53:09.560
<v Speaker 3>living in the same country. It does not seem like

0:53:09.560 --> 0:53:12.279
<v Speaker 3>a place where you could quote work your way up.

0:53:12.640 --> 0:53:15.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I have to say, you know, Hitten mentioned also

0:53:16.200 --> 0:53:20.480
<v Speaker 2>the sort of like UAE legends, like the Horatio Algis

0:53:20.800 --> 0:53:23.719
<v Speaker 2>of the UAE. I still remember A big one was

0:53:23.800 --> 0:53:25.080
<v Speaker 2>this Indian guy called b. R.

0:53:25.200 --> 0:53:25.520
<v Speaker 3>Shetty.

0:53:26.320 --> 0:53:27.320
<v Speaker 2>Does that name ring about?

0:53:27.320 --> 0:53:27.480
<v Speaker 5>Oh?

0:53:27.920 --> 0:53:32.239
<v Speaker 2>So he built this huge medical company called NMC and

0:53:32.280 --> 0:53:35.200
<v Speaker 2>then it turned out to be a massive fraud. But

0:53:35.360 --> 0:53:38.000
<v Speaker 2>he was like the guy that people would point to

0:53:38.280 --> 0:53:41.840
<v Speaker 2>as you know, you can make it here anyway, we

0:53:41.880 --> 0:53:42.560
<v Speaker 2>can keep going on.

0:53:42.640 --> 0:53:46.440
<v Speaker 3>Position is just the past. Yeah, I love talking to him.

0:53:46.520 --> 0:53:47.640
<v Speaker 2>All right, shall we leave it there.

0:53:48.040 --> 0:53:48.799
<v Speaker 3>Let's leave it there.

0:53:48.960 --> 0:53:51.240
<v Speaker 2>This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast.

0:53:51.320 --> 0:53:53.960
<v Speaker 2>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

0:53:54.120 --> 0:53:56.480
<v Speaker 3>And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the

0:53:56.520 --> 0:53:59.440
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<v Speaker 3>And from our odd Laws content. Go to Bloomberg dot com.

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