1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Term Keene Jay Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Let's 5 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: bring it. David Kelly Showery, JP Morgan, Asset Management, Chief 6 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: Global Strategists. So, David, help us understand two things. Near 7 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: term outlook darkening, long term out look, medium turn out 8 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: look getting brighter. How do you navigate those two things 9 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 1: at the moment. One of the advantages of being a 10 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: bear is you can always hybridate. I think a lot 11 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: a lot of people would like to hibernate through the 12 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: next few months because it is going to be pretty rough. Um. 13 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: You know, there's you can look at those case cans. 14 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: You know how this is going to play out. It's 15 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: going to be difficult for the economy, it's gonna be 16 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: very difficult for people's lives, and I could we think 17 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: that growth in the US has to show down to 18 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: about three growth if that, over the next quarter or two. 19 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: But beyond that, you know, the vaccine news is good news, um, 20 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: And we do if we're passed. I think the election, 21 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: uncertainty in reality or whatever, you know, maybe going on 22 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: to Washington right now. Um, And I do think the 23 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: vaccine is going to make a big difference, because the 24 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: difference between a you know, a vaccine that six effective 25 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: and nine percent effective is is it's a big difference 26 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: because a meaning revenge you would be able to squash 27 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 1: this thing. Um. So we do think the growth will 28 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: pick up a lot in the second half of the 29 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,559 Speaker 1: next year as people get back to normal and people 30 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: start doing all the things they haven't been able to 31 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 1: do for a year and a half. So we do 32 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: see a certain today, but we do have to go 33 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: through a pretty rough time for the economy and for 34 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: society between now and then. David, David help us with 35 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: the application of when strategies shift and go bullish. We 36 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: saw there some Golden Sex David, you may be familiar 37 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: with them as a small bank downtown. And also JP 38 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 1: Morgan again shifting to a or more bullish tact as well. 39 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: How does your world change when it's team at JP 40 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: Morgan gets quote unquote more bullish? Likely, sa Bramo wits, well, 41 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: we obviously we're trying to do the research ourselves. We're 42 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: trying not to be influenced by by other teams. But 43 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: there's a there is a logic to this thing. I mean, 44 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: if you know stocks, you know even long term bonds 45 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 1: are very long term investments. So you've got to look 46 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: past the next six months, and very often the best 47 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: way to make money in the long run is to 48 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: basically to fade whatever emotion is in the market at 49 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: the time. So, yes, we've got this rising case content. 50 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: It's it's dreadful from from many perspectives, but you've just 51 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: got to look beyond that. I think the other thing 52 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 1: that that's very important for for world markets in general 53 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: is with the new administration, I think you're gonna have 54 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: more certainty on trade. I think that's one of the 55 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: reasons the dollar is going down um. But also a 56 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: folding dollar is advantageous for a lot of reasons. I 57 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: think it will help out emerging markets. I think it 58 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: will help US investors with UM with you foreign investments, 59 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: it will, it should help SMP pipeund that, and then 60 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: a divided government means you don't necessarily get an increase 61 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: in corporate taxes. To put all this together, there's plenty 62 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 1: of reasons to be optimistic once you can get past 63 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: this pandemic. David, you said fade the emotion in markets, 64 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: A fascinating turn of phrase at a time when the 65 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 1: motion that we have seen, at least so far this 66 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: week until today has been borderline euphoric. So are you 67 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: fading the hope that they are having next year or 68 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: do you think that we still have some pessimists and 69 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,239 Speaker 1: baked into markets where they are now. I don't. I 70 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: don't mean that. I mean they fade the emotion that 71 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: that's bubbling up in society and will bubble up over 72 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: the next week ahead. I you know, these case cants 73 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: are rising very very rapidly. So you know, if if 74 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: if it keeps on the same trajectory, within a week, 75 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: people are going to be talking about nothing but the 76 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: you know, the misery that COVID is inflicting upon us, 77 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: and talking about shutdowns and lockdowns and businesses in trouble. 78 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: So the I'm not necessarily talking about the emotion of 79 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: the last week and sort of the weirdness after the election. 80 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: I'm talking about what's just ahead of us here. I 81 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: think people should not overplay that. I think they should 82 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: recognize that there is light at the end of the tunnel, 83 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: even though the tunnel itself right now is getting darker. Whatever. 84 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: It keeps coming back to the same question we've asked 85 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 1: repeatedly in the last couple of days about this how 86 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,039 Speaker 1: much bad news is this market willing to ignore? Just 87 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 1: how much? Well? The problem? The problem is it's it's 88 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: we've got this, this market which is being supported by 89 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: these very easy central banks. Um, there is nowhere else 90 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: to go. There's a lot of liquidity, and that's really 91 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: what's supporting this market. I think the market can probably 92 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: look through a fair amount of that. I mean, it's 93 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: it's until there's something that's going to pull money away 94 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 1: from upper income individuals and institutions that can that can 95 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: put this money to work. There's money that needs to 96 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 1: go to work. Where is it going to go to work? Um? 97 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: I would say that, you know, longer term, as uncertainty fades, 98 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: you want to really look at valuations more than momentum. 99 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: So we've got a lot of momentum and megacap growth stocks. 100 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: That's kind of been the continuing trade of But I 101 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: think as uncertainty diminishes, as you get back to more 102 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: normal economy and particularly if you get a correction at 103 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: some stage, then people are going to focus more on valuations, 104 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: and valuations look a lot better in US value stocks 105 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: and in e M and developed country international stocks than 106 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 1: they do in the S and P five handed overall, 107 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: and particularly in megacap growth stocks, Mega Camp growth. Right 108 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: now bit NaSTA film at David Grants to catch up 109 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: with you, David Kelly, that of JP Mulgan Asset Management, 110 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: thank you, And right now Albert co of Yale University 111 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: to say he is a professor of epidemiology barely describes 112 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 1: his focus on the heart of the matter right now, 113 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 1: which is transmission dynamics. He is world class in this 114 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: and we're thrilled he could join us this morning. Dr Co, 115 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 1: Are you smarter about the transmission dynamics of this virus 116 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: than you were in April? So so, Tom, thank you 117 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 1: very much for the invitation. And uh and with respect 118 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,919 Speaker 1: with whether we're smarter, I'm not sure if that's the 119 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: best way to describe it. Were we learned more much 120 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: more about how this virus transmits, who it transmits, and 121 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 1: where it transmits. I think what we're not necessarily smarter 122 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: is is learning the lessons and translating that that knowledge 123 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 1: of evidence to policy. Well, okay, in the policy, but 124 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: we have a policy void. Can we wait until January 125 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 1: or please call it from the urgency of policy right 126 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 1: now in the final days of the Trump administration. Yeah. So, 127 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: so Tom, we're at a critical moment right now. Uh, 128 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: and we can't wait until the January for effective action. 129 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: We're on the ex meddential curve of growth of cases, 130 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,679 Speaker 1: not only in new places where the viruses has spread 131 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:48,160 Speaker 1: in the United States, but also old places. For example 132 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: here in the northeast of Connecticut, northeast of the country. 133 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 1: We were hit hard in the early part of the epidemic, 134 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 1: and now we're having a resurgence at this moment, I 135 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: felt that to find exponential for us if you can 136 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: with the numbers that you're sink currently, and whether what 137 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 1: you're saying is once you reach that kind of right 138 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: of change, the inevitably the only way to handle this 139 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: is to lock back down. Again, is that what you're implying. 140 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: So so I'll take the first part and what we 141 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: were doing in by expensional curve. So, this is a 142 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: virus that propagates by person or person in contact. So 143 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: if you have one person in it it um transmits 144 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,119 Speaker 1: to two people, those two people transmit to four people, 145 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: those four people up to sixteen people. And that's that 146 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: what we call the exponential curve. When there's that uncontrolled 147 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: transmission and people are are we're undergoing doubling rates um 148 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: the whether what the response to that is is actually 149 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: to do several things, and we know the evidence and 150 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: we've learned this in the last ten months of this epidemic. 151 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: What is face matchs, you know, what we call barrier 152 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: reduction or barrier interventions to prevent people from from being 153 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: exposed to the virus. The other is to decrease the 154 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: social contact rate. Now that doesn't necessarily need lockdown, but 155 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: when the cats out of the bag or when we 156 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: have a wildfire, this extensional growth lockdown as we've seen 157 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: back in the early stages of the epidemic is a 158 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: is one, you know, one of the effective interventions dr CO. 159 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: When we talk about what types of interventions are necessary, 160 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: I feel like we have to revisit how contagious the 161 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: disease is and the main methods of transmission. There are 162 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: some questions about whether it's effective to close bars and 163 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: restaurants at ten pm whether that actually does anything, whether 164 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 1: the surface transmission mechanism is a substantial one or not. 165 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: What do we know so far about the main modes 166 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:48,559 Speaker 1: of transmission other than people looking at each other for 167 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: more than fifteen minutes and speaking and singing at each other. Right, 168 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: so we know that person or person contact is essential 169 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: and it drives this uh, drives transmission. I think you 170 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: can break it down into three parts. One is the 171 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: transmission through respiratory droplets. These are larger droplets that travel 172 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 1: roughly six ft um uh and and really that type 173 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: of transmissions fueled by close contact physical contact. The second 174 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,719 Speaker 1: is through what we call famites or person coughing or 175 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: sneezing onto our surface. Uh. And then the third is 176 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 1: the aerosols. Uh. These are smaller droplets that travel much further. 177 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: But but what we know now we don't actually have 178 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: the exact figures, but the large majority of transmission is 179 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: actually fueled by the kind of close contact through through 180 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 1: respiratory droplets within six ft. And that's good news in 181 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: the sense that we know how to kind of we 182 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,200 Speaker 1: know how to address that. It's use of face masks 183 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 1: and to maintaining physical physical distance distancing in that scenario. 184 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: Dr Coe solid Or Brazil is a thousand miles or 185 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 1: so north of Rio. You've had a huge commitment there 186 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: to their medicine, their micro biology. I say this with 187 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 1: great respect and nothing to demean the Brazilian government. Do 188 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: you trust the statistics out of Brazil, out of South 189 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: America and out of Mexico. Yeah, so, I think you know. 190 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: The key issue with surveillance and the numbers and getting 191 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: reliable numbers. And this is an issue here in the 192 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 1: United States is round powder round public testing. Being able 193 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: to test people who are symptomatic with the disease and 194 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: to test the vulnerable populations and those UH in those settings. 195 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: This is purely a challenge here in the United States, 196 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: even in our own vulnerable communities, but this is a 197 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 1: challenge throughout poorer countries and developing countries and even richer 198 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: countries among that group, such as such as Brazil. UH. 199 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: Certainly there are two key issues. One is you know, 200 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 1: which is key, and is the government uh investment in 201 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: the response. And we've seen the of the foiables and 202 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: the problems that Brazil that had due to political concerns 203 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: in the last uh you know, last ten eight to 204 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: ten months. Uh. The other is is that you know, 205 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,439 Speaker 1: there are places in Brazil which we're doing extensive testing, 206 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 1: places like some polo in uh In, many of the 207 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: state's buildings, Auch City, or build Auch in the city 208 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:23,199 Speaker 1: that I work in Salvador. They're doing quite a bit 209 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 1: of testing. So numbers are going to change based on 210 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: where you are within a country. But the numbers, actually, 211 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: I think what's more important than the absolute number is 212 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: the trends and where they're going through. Many of these 213 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: places are either going up or they're staying the same. 214 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: Don't to appreciate your time this morning, Thanks for being 215 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: with us, Come back soon. Why don't you don't to 216 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 1: wrap a cord that of university right, albeit a kur 217 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: joints us to Bernstein maybe Bernstein Co. Ahead of investment strategies. 218 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: Do we sort of laid out the present land here? 219 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 1: How do you write for March of two thousand twenty 220 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 1: one or investment out all through two thousand twenty one. Well, 221 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: we think about a continuation of the same forces that 222 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,680 Speaker 1: the market has been reckoning with this calendar year, which 223 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: is of course the challenge of COVID, which is ongoing 224 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: and escalating. As you've been discussing. But the offsetting force 225 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: is the fiscal support and monetary support that's providing tremendous 226 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 1: momentum and liquidity to the market. And I think what 227 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: you've seen over the course of the last week is 228 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: really a recognition that so many people were waiting for 229 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: event risk around the election and have re engaged with 230 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: the market as there is more clarity around that policy. 231 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: So I think we have to wrestle with those two forces, Peter. 232 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people also thinking about whether 233 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: we would have some regime change on the policy side, 234 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: away from a monthy policy regime towards a fiscal policy regime. 235 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: And understand we've had a mix of both, but I 236 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: do wonder for you WHI you're sitting right now what 237 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: regime are we in at the moment on the policy 238 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 1: from We're in a regime that's been coordinated, and what 239 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 1: we saw in the first quarter was an incredible response, 240 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 1: both in terms of speed and magnitude, and that is 241 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 1: ultimately what gave markets the comfort to start that steady 242 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: march upward and then over the summer. It's been frustrating 243 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: to not see that second round of fiscal stimulus be passed, 244 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: we really think the economy and ultimately the markets will 245 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 1: be looking for direction around fiscal stimulus, a much smaller 246 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: stimulus package than what would have occurred under the consensus 247 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: views going into the election of a blue wave. But nonetheless, 248 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 1: we do think you'll see in the numbers today that 249 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: there's still a tremendous number of people looking for work 250 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: out of work that need help, and especially as COVID 251 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: nineteen ramps up pretty relentlessly, we think that fiscal stimulus 252 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: is going to be critical. While the numbers are ugally 253 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: in the United States and the prospect of they see 254 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: doing more as diminished considerably out of the aus compliments 255 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 1: as you've described, What are the capital aizication consequences of 256 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 1: that for you right now as you look into your 257 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 1: rend Yeah, well, I'm coming to you here from Chicago, Illinois, 258 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: where we're the one state in the Union right now 259 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: that doesn't even allow indoor dining, to give you a 260 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: sense of the escalation and the potential for ongoing shutdowns 261 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: and lockdowns. So we do see the vulnerability of the 262 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: economy to ongoing stress from lockdowns. That being said, we 263 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: are long term bullish, and in fact, we went into 264 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: September and the election, slightly overweight equities. That has been 265 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: the right call, and we have trimmed that back of 266 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: a little bit, but ultimately maintaining that position because we 267 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: see vaccine optimism and earnings recoveries that are substantial in 268 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: two thousand and twenty one, so be able let's build 269 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: on that. Is there an idea then that the virus 270 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: counts and all of the high frequency data that people 271 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: were pouring over earlier this year, but none of that 272 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: matters right now. If you've got a longer term you well, 273 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: we don't think none of it matters. If you think 274 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: about what happened in the spring, the market was really 275 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: focused on a national healthcare crisis and the inability of 276 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: the system to manage the virus. And what we've learned 277 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 1: today and you've had a prior guests this morning actually 278 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: addressing this is better treatment, ultimately lower fatality rates, and 279 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: more targeted economic impact from more localized shutdowns. And I 280 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: think that's what the market is effectively expecting. But again 281 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: we come back to the fact that we do think 282 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus is necessary in some form. The sooner the better, 283 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: but the odds of it happening this year are being 284 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 1: reduced as we speak. He always fought a lot of 285 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: math into this, and I love your phrase, the mathiness 286 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 1: of the phrase. The idiosyncretic drivers discussed that what's the 287 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: new idiosyncratic driver. Well, in our opinion, as active investment 288 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: managers for over fifty years, it burns. What it means 289 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 1: is that being an index investor or simply investing in 290 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: sectors today is not enough. There are a lot of 291 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 1: underlying company fundamentals that you have to look at very specifically. 292 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: We know that we're in a year where growth has 293 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: led in an extraordinary way, but even within the growth 294 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: style um there's growth at a reasonable price, and then 295 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: there's simply momentum growth. And the valuation differences are huge. 296 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 1: And you could say the same thing about value in 297 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 1: terms of cyclicals and financials versus energy. So you have 298 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: to look at the company, it's balance sheet, it's management team. Ultimately, 299 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: we're focused on buying enduring businesses and in the end 300 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: we think that focus on stock selection will prevail. Well, 301 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: let's talk about that and let's finish there. Just give 302 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 1: us an idea of how you do that. Early this week, 303 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: when the positive news around the vaccine came out the 304 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: likes of AMC get bits up aggressively. I want to 305 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: understand the difference between a company that just places the 306 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: catch up write on a bit of opium on a 307 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: Monday morning into Tuesday, and something more durable through the 308 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:09,160 Speaker 1: recovery that you anticipate. Well, I leave that hard work 309 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 1: to our research analysts and our portfolio managers, who are 310 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: responsible for ultimately kicking the tires with the management teams. 311 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 1: But I can tell you that what our pms have 312 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: been doing over the last couple of weeks is picking 313 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: up a little bit more in the cyclical space. But 314 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: to give you an example, even within technology, for example, 315 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 1: focused on semiconductors, an area that we think will continue 316 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 1: to benefit from the stay at home economy, but ultimately 317 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:39,239 Speaker 1: support that reversal to going back to normal, picking up 318 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: a little bit more in the transportation sector, as well 319 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: as some of the most beaten down names in consumer 320 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: discretionary and travel and leisure. So uh, that is how 321 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: we're thinking about positioning today. A bit of case. Thank 322 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: you always, great to catch up. Thank you very much. 323 00:17:54,800 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: If I b Bernstein there on this market. I have 324 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 1: anticipated this interview since I spoke to James Travitas a 325 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: number of days ago. General Mark Kimmitt is the rarest 326 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,959 Speaker 1: of rare, someone with a distinguished military career who's dovetailed 327 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: it was State Department experience. We're thrilled at General Mark 328 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 1: Kimmitt could join us right now. General Kimmitt, the name 329 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: Bler right now is off the chart. We have a 330 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: general here, We've got a colonel there. We've got a 331 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: list of slot can out of Michigan with their Defense 332 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: Department experience and all of its name in this cacophony 333 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 1: comes down to one thing. How is the Pentagon doing? 334 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: What is your feeling of how the Pentagon is doing 335 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 1: in this immediate turmoil. Look, I think the uniform services 336 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: are doing just fine. As Admiral Steverta said, you can 337 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: be sure that Mark Milly has got the rudder in 338 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: the boat, moving them straight, uh and in the right direction. 339 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,439 Speaker 1: I am all concerned about what's going on in my 340 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 1: old policy shop in the Pentagon and the intel shop 341 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 1: and the Secretary Defense. Something doesn't click here. What is 342 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 1: the price or the good or the negative of an 343 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: Afghanistan exit? Clearly the zeitgeist, as the President desires that 344 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: we hear a silence from the military. Give us the 345 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: calculus if we were to exit Afghanistan. Well, on that 346 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: particular itch with Afghanistan, Zal Holizade is doing some great negotiations, 347 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:33,719 Speaker 1: but he's negotiated with the Taliban. The fact remains, as 348 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: we are coming to an agreement where the Taliban say 349 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: you leave, will take care of al Qaeda. We know 350 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 1: that's not going to happen in the United States of 351 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 1: saying if you take care of al Qaeda, will leave, 352 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 1: and that's not going to happen. I mean, if there 353 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: is an al Qaeda threat or any other isis thread 354 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 1: inside of Afghanistan, we will come back in. It may 355 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: be from the air, it maybe with like special operations units. 356 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: But the fact remains is we are not going to 357 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: allow Afghanistan to remain and become again a safe haven 358 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: for terrorists. So this kabuki about pulling all the American 359 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,440 Speaker 1: troops out, We'll pull the ones that are sitting around 360 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: the base is not doing much. But the ones that 361 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: we need to have there to work with the Afghan 362 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: national security forces and in counter terrorist operations. I'm not 363 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: worried about that. Under the revolution that was Goldwater Nickels 364 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 1: really the last act of Senator Goldwater to create a 365 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: real structure and separation of our military. How confident are 366 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 1: you that the military can operate over the next sixty 367 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: nine days. I'm not the slightest that worried about that. 368 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 1: I mean, Goldwater Nichols was a result of the clown 369 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 1: college that we called Grenada, where you had every service 370 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: doing their own thing. Since then, since eighties six and 371 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 1: Goldwater Nickels, it's a very smooth running military set up, 372 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: going from the President to the Secretary Defense down to 373 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: the combatant commanders. Uh, that's not where I'm worried about 374 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 1: right now. It's from the combatant commanders through the Secretary 375 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,239 Speaker 1: Defense and up where I have some concerns. All right, 376 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 1: can you elaborate, General on your concerns with the practical 377 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: implications of some of the turnover. Maybe, well, I'm not 378 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 1: concerned about the practical implications. I'm concerned about the people. 379 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,159 Speaker 1: I think. You take a look at the record of 380 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 1: Tony Tayta, Doug McGregor, Ezra Cohen Watkins, Stephen Miller. I 381 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: don't know the Secretary Defense, but these are guys that 382 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 1: have a great military background, but it seems their greatest 383 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 1: qualification for joining the policy shop is that they appeared 384 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,160 Speaker 1: on Fox News on a repeated basis, probably echoing back 385 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: to President Trump what he wanted to hear. Does this 386 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 1: have I media implications or long term implications in terms 387 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: of a greater politicist as its politicization of the entire 388 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: military forces. That's not going to happen. I mean, Mark 389 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: Milly and the team will resign before they have become 390 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 1: political bozos. What I am concerned is I have and 391 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: this is purely speculative. I've got this sneaking suspicion that 392 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: something's going on here in terms of why these people 393 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: were brought in, and I think it's far more than 394 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 1: just Afghanistan. These are people with a deep loyalty to 395 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: a president, a president who has sixty days left in 396 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: unfinished business, and I'm just hoping that the Secretary of 397 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: Defense is not going to give actions in orders to 398 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 1: the military in the next sixty days that are going 399 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: to haunt us for a while. You have a great 400 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 1: experience with Colonel McGregor. If you mentioned Fox TV, he 401 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: has of course been a contributor there as well. Can 402 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 1: you describe if Colonel McGregor enters the Pentagon is a citizen. 403 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: How he will relate to the Joint Jesus staff. Again, 404 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: what I'm concerned about with Doug is not relating to 405 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: the staff as a and I mean there's a great 406 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: respect for X military among the Joint staff. Uh, it's 407 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: what is being planned and why he was brought in. 408 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: Doug McGregor is brilliant, but he's got some very strong views. 409 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: I worked side by side with him over the years. 410 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: I worked for him in one job. He is creative, 411 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: He thinks outside the box, and I just wonder what 412 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 1: he's thinking outside the box right now for the next 413 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: see General Kimmon, thank you so much for joining us 414 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: today under sum drest. We're thrilled we could find the 415 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 1: time to speak to market Kimmon. Thanks for listening to 416 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 417 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 418 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,920 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can 419 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio