1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 2: The State Visits is officially underway. Sound from the South 6 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 2: Lawn of the White House a bit earlier today, as 7 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 2: the President of South Korea arrive for a day of talks, 8 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: big meeting in the Oval at a bilateral news conference 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,319 Speaker 2: that was originally set to begin a half an hour ago. 10 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:35,279 Speaker 2: It's been delayed, and we will bring that to you 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:41,559 Speaker 2: from the Rosegarden in roughly a half hour's time. What's 12 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 2: a beautiful spring day here in the nation's capital. We 13 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 2: know how to do these really well in Washington, by 14 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: the way, complete with the soundtrack the Color Garden. And 15 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: there's already news. Bloomberg is reporting the US will deploy 16 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: a nuclear arms submarine to South Korea in exchange for 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 2: a pledge from Seoul to honor commitments to not pursue 18 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 2: its own nuclear arsenal. This is the first such visit 19 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: to South Korea in terms of a submarine like this 20 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 2: in forty years. According to the US reinforcing the importance 21 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: of that region here when it comes to geopolitics and 22 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 2: the view of this administration. And that's where we begin 23 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 2: with Max Bauchus, the former US Ambassador to China, of course, 24 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: former US senator from Montana, who's got eyes on what's 25 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 2: happening today here in Washington. Mister ambassador, it's great to 26 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: have you back. How important is this relationship as the 27 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 2: Biden administration tries to get its arms around Beijing. 28 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 3: It's critical obviously, as Kim Jong on North Green present 29 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 3: very significantly builds up as nuclear arsenal facts, so much 30 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 3: so that it's hard for US analysts to keep track 31 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 3: of it. 32 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 4: Same time, add attention between US and China. 33 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 3: At one point did have the United States did have 34 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 3: a fad missile launchers in South Korea against China. China 35 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 3: like that at all, in fact, protested so vigorously that 36 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 3: United States kindly back down, and so did South Korea. No, 37 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 3: this is important meeting a supportant agreement. It's basically designed 38 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 3: to soothe anxiety in South Korea about North Korean build up. 39 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 3: It's pretty symbolic, frankly. It basically it says that South 40 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 3: Korea will have a seat at the table, although any 41 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 3: decisions regarding nuclear forces will be made by the US President. 42 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 3: At the same time, though, there's going to be another 43 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 3: side agreement here. I think at least will be pressured 44 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 3: by the United States and South Korea to put pressure 45 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 3: on South Korean companies chip companies. 46 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 4: Do not sell chips to China. 47 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 3: There's some major companies in China, excuse me, and South Korea. 48 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 3: I want to sell chips to China. But China's now 49 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 3: basically saying to Micron it's not going to buy any 50 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 3: Micron chips. It wants to buy chips from South Korea. 51 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 3: With US presidents during this session and is meeting with 52 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 3: a South Korean president encourage South Korea. Do not sell 53 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 3: South Korean ships to China. 54 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 4: So that's a part of this, okay. 55 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 2: So just to pick through a couple of the items 56 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 2: here that we have on the table and an ambassador 57 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 2: we are going to carry the bilateral news conference whenever 58 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 2: it begins. I'm sure we'll learn a lot more. But 59 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: what do you make of this commitment from the US 60 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 2: to send a nuclear armed submarine to South Korea. How 61 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 2: much does this have to do with South Korea's pledge 62 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: to not pursue its own arsenal versus very real threats 63 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 2: in the region. 64 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 4: Well, that's part of the deal. 65 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 3: South Grean president wanted to build up its own nuclear arsenal. 66 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 3: South Grean presence made that pretty clear. We don't like that. 67 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 3: America doesn't like that. So we're pushing back and saying no, no, no, 68 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 3: we don't want you to do that. But in exchange, 69 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 3: we'll send warships to South Korea talk them there, including 70 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 3: a ballistic missile, just to show that we really care. 71 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 4: We're in the area, we're in the red and we're 72 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 4: there to help you. 73 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 2: Sure, okay, this makes sense. I don't know. If there's 74 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 2: a further ask when it comes to security, ambassador, you 75 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: would probably have a better sense of that. But before 76 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: we even get any further in accomplishments here on this visit, 77 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 2: how much of this is a cleanup? Having seen these 78 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 2: documents from the Pentagon classified documents leaked that made it 79 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 2: clear that we were in fact spying on the President's 80 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 2: office in Seoul. 81 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 3: Well, I think that's part of it. It's a little 82 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 3: embarrassing that revelation, but you know, the United States spies 83 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 3: in all countries, including. 84 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 4: Just what it is. But when it's public, it. 85 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 3: Gets embarrassing, and we have often, as in this case, 86 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 3: we try to make amends. 87 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 2: Well as someone who's served in the role of ambassador. 88 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 2: What's that meeting? Like, I mean, is this an apology 89 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 2: or just to hey, come on, let's acknowledge reality everybody. 90 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 3: Oh, I think that there's not much is going to 91 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: be said about the revelation that US has spired on 92 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 3: South Korea. I think that asking me pretty much up 93 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 3: under the rug. It'll be a eight hundred pounds grill 94 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 3: in the room, but it will not be discussed much 95 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 3: at all. Rather, there will be many assurances by the 96 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 3: US president how much we like South Korea, many assurances 97 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 3: by the South Korean presidents how much we appreciate And 98 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 3: I said, America, we appreciate this agreement. 99 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 4: It's a really good agreement. That's basically going to be. 100 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 2: The discussion understood. How much of the conversation today between 101 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 2: these two presidents will be dedicated to China versus North Korea. 102 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 4: I think some of it will be. 103 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 3: US President President Biden is going to encourage South Korean 104 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 3: president to encouraged South Korean companies to not sell certain 105 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 3: chips to China. China wants certain ships either mainstream chips, 106 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,719 Speaker 3: they're not high end chips. But still, whether the US 107 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 3: does not want those chips sold to China and Franklin 108 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 3: is all part of the US effort to organize our 109 00:05:54,160 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 3: allies that is Japan, South Korea, Philippines of Australia sponsored 110 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 3: against China. Now this very much upsets China because China 111 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 3: feels is being more and more contained. It's a double 112 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 3: edged sword. But still this effort on part of the 113 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 3: United States is part of effort to bring in. 114 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 4: South Korea as part of the allies effort to contain China. 115 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 2: Understood, Ambassador, I'm sure you saw news today that Hijinping 116 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:27,159 Speaker 2: met with Vladimir Zelenski, their first conversation since the Russian 117 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 2: invasion last year. He said, the only way to achieve 118 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: peace for Ukraine is through negotiations with Russia. We know 119 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 2: China has been trying to play a role in finding 120 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 2: piece in Ukraine. Is it a credible actor in this conversation? 121 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 2: In your view? 122 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 4: I think it is. 123 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 3: I think it is credible, but that begs the question 124 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 3: how credible China wants to be perceived as a role 125 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 3: player broke with the deal between Iran Saudi Arabia, that's 126 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 3: a feather and it's cap. Now wants to try to 127 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 3: broke between Russia and Ukraine. That would be a feather, 128 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 3: another feather in its cap. Now, it's not really widely 129 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 3: believed to be very credible because part of the preconditions 130 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 3: of China's negotiations with Ukraine are the absence of all 131 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 3: Russian soldiers. Now, of course Boot's not going to agree 132 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 3: to that, but you know, at one level, I think 133 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 3: it's it's it's it's it's interesting. Zelensky and she spoke 134 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 3: for an hour and a Halfski afterwards said it was 135 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 3: a very credible, very good conversation for exchange, their exchanging 136 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 3: ambassadors China ambassador to Ukraine, Ukraine ambassador to to China. 137 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 4: So it's it's China is a player, and I think 138 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 4: that's welcome. That's good. 139 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 3: Now we'll see how far it goes, because China clearly 140 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 3: has a very very strong interest in maintaining and supporting Russia. 141 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 4: China does not want Russia to collapse rushwar to collapse. 142 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 3: That would be very detrimental to China's long term strategic 143 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 3: of interest. So that it's China's kind of playing at 144 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 3: both ways here. 145 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 2: Well, as you mentioned, China will send an envoy to Kiev. 146 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: That seems like a pretty important development for better or 147 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 2: worse here You're not going to see Russian missile attacks 148 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 2: in an area that might that might hurt or kill 149 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 2: a Chinese diplomat like that, are you? I mean, does 150 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 2: that does that start to bring some protection to Kiev 151 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 2: as this is figured out? 152 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 4: I think it does. 153 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 3: But more important it's the symbolic They need symbolism all this. 154 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 3: It's really as important that their exchange ambassadors, you know. 155 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 3: That's that shows that they're talking to each other, they're 156 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 3: working at each other. 157 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, and the more we I'll talk, the better. 158 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 3: More likely is we're going to bring it into this 159 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 3: not awful war in Ukraine. 160 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 2: This is only the second to get back to where 161 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 2: we began, only the second state visit for this Biden administration. Ambassador. 162 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 2: It speaks volumes that he chose South Korea, Does it not? 163 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 4: It does? It does. 164 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 3: We did have missiles in Korea until the end of 165 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 3: the Cold War, but they're gone now. But now that 166 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 3: Skim has become so strong with development of his missiles, 167 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:05,680 Speaker 3: that makes important for us to go back now, I 168 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 3: must say it kind of it reminds me of a 169 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 3: conversation or a statement that President She made to me 170 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 3: and to others at one point when I was serving 171 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 3: as ambassaard, namely that he was quite frustrated with and 172 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 3: upset with Kim Jongo and he basically said that I 173 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 3: can't I can't control that boy. It's not that's a 174 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 3: bit of an overstatement. He's got a lot of leverage 175 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 3: over Kim John Gon, but you could tell that at 176 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 3: North Korea is very much a thorn in the side 177 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 3: of President She. 178 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: You know, before you leave, Abassador, I have to ask 179 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 2: you about a story today in the Washington Post's pretty 180 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 2: fascinating showing the level of investment that China is making 181 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 2: in space and while that may in fact be the 182 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 2: next frontier when it comes to geopolitical threats, threats to 183 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 2: our hardware and space are access to space. Do we 184 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 2: need to play catch up here or do we have 185 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 2: the upper hand when comes to the space force against China. 186 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 4: I think we're doing well. We can always do better, 187 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 4: But frankly. 188 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 3: I think that a lot of this conversation about are 189 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 3: we stronger than China? 190 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 4: Is China stronger than us. 191 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 3: It's important because clearly we want to protect our national security. 192 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 4: That comes first. 193 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 3: But you know, there comes a point when we've got 194 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 3: to figure out a way to get along with China. 195 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 3: We or at least work with China, deal with China, 196 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 3: and China's not going away. China's always going to be there. 197 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 3: The United States isn't going away. We're always going to 198 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 3: be there, and we have to just kind of figure 199 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 3: out a way where we've been to live with each other. 200 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 3: It was Janney Yellen and our speech a few days ago, 201 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 3: a long speech about US policy toroid China, included that phrase, 202 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 3: we need to learn to live with each other and 203 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 3: work with each other, and I think we need to 204 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 3: spend more time on that when we're also talking about 205 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 3: these other issues. 206 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 2: Great to spend some time with you, Ambassador, Thanks for 207 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 2: coming in, Max Boks, the former US Ambassador to China 208 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 2: or US Senator from Montana. As we assemble our panel 209 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 2: for their take on all of this. Rick Davis and 210 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 2: Gen Shanzano, of course Bloomberg Politics contributors, and our signature 211 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 2: panel here on sound On. Rick is with us in Washington. 212 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 2: It's great to see you sir. As the state visit 213 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 2: gets underway, this is going to be an opportunity here 214 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 2: if they're on time, roughly fifteen minutes from now, with 215 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 2: these two presidents in the world watching. 216 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, I mean Biden was in South Korea last May, 217 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 5: so a year ago. He went there and now you know, 218 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 5: the president of South Korea is here at the White House. 219 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 5: And as former Sara and Bacchus mentioned, is a really 220 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 5: important geopolitical relationship that spans you know, security and the economy, 221 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 5: relations with China, the defensive measures against North Korea. I 222 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 5: mean like they are intertwined with our geopolitics of the 223 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 5: region in a way that maybe only rivals by Japan. 224 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 5: And so this is this this meeting needs to really 225 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 5: go well. And there are some stress points, you know, 226 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 5: I mean some of the IR language that was just 227 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 5: passed that the Biden administration likes to herald, you know, 228 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 5: kind of makes it difficult for South Korea to do 229 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 5: business on things like EV batteries and whatnot, because it 230 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 5: actually prohibits them from being able to do business with China. 231 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:15,559 Speaker 5: So they're going to try and iron some of those 232 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 5: things out. And we want South Korea to be a 233 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 5: close strategic partner with our critical materials and things like semiconductors, 234 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 5: but we don't want them too close to China, who 235 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 5: they see as a very important trading partner for South Korea. Yeah, 236 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 5: it's pretty remarkable actually to see the amount of business 237 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 5: going to the US from South Korea versus China. Right now, Genie, 238 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 5: how much of this is an economic conversation versus a 239 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 5: security one? 240 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 6: You know, we have long known that, you know, South 241 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 6: Korea has wanted protection from North Korea, so that's a 242 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 6: security conversation. But of course they also don't want to 243 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 6: be caught up in this competition with China, so you 244 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 6: know that is going to continue. We know that China 245 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:03,319 Speaker 6: is conducting a national secureecurity review at Micron, the chip manufacturer, 246 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 6: and US is pressuring South Korea not to have its 247 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 6: chip manufacturers take Micron's market share, but of course that's 248 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 6: getting pushed back from South Korea as chip makers. So 249 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 6: it's a very contentious meeting and conversation in that regard. 250 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 6: But there are things that we can do jointly together 251 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 6: and that we do need to do. This is a 252 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 6: relationship seventy years in the making. 253 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg reporting, Rick that the US may surpass China this 254 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 2: year as the top destination for South Korean exports for 255 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 2: the first time in two decades. That reinforces your view here, right, 256 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 2: we're talking about doing more business so they can rely 257 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:38,839 Speaker 2: less on China. 258 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 5: That's right. I mean we are reshoring, you know, and 259 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 5: meaning taking things out of China and bring them back 260 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 5: to the United States. But we are also doubling down 261 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:50,119 Speaker 5: on our approach to countries that we have strategic security 262 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 5: relationships with, in other words, trusted foundry relationship. 263 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 2: We trust the chips that come. 264 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 5: From South Korea because we don't believe that China has 265 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 5: a way to penetrate them. We trust the technology coming 266 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 5: in from places like South Korea because we can actually 267 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 5: put eyes on it, you know, and we have a 268 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 5: close trust relationship there. So we want to expand those relationships. 269 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 5: And frankly, it's in the South Korean interests to do 270 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 5: the same thing because they have the same strategic concerns 271 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 5: about China's hegeonomy in the region, and of course they're 272 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 5: right next door, so it even applies more to them. 273 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 2: Spending time with Rick and Jeanie here as we wait 274 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 2: to hear from the presidents yes, plural. We're going to 275 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 2: be hearing from, of course, Joe Biden and the President 276 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 2: of South Korea. This is Bloomberg. 277 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 278 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 279 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 280 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Business App. 281 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 282 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 283 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 2: Well, just a beautiful day in the nation's capital. You 284 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: should be here inside the bubble as we wait for 285 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 2: the two presidents to merge from the Oval Office, with 286 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 2: eyes now on the Rose Garden here from the Bloomberg 287 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 2: Washington DC Bureau. It's probably hot out there. I'm thinking 288 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 2: sitting in the sun. But that's the deal when you 289 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 2: go to events like these. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, 290 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 2: joined by the panel. Rick Davis is with me in Washington, 291 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 2: Genie Schanzeno in New York, and we are going to 292 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 2: bring this news conference to you. At least we'll get 293 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 2: to the meat of the Q and A, the stuff 294 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 2: that you want to hear, and bring it to you 295 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 2: live from the Rose Garden as soon as they begin. 296 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 2: This is originally scheduled to start about an hour ago. 297 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 2: And Rick, I guess that tells us they have some 298 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 2: things to talk about, doesn't it. 299 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 5: Yeah, they may be having a cold sweat session in 300 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 5: the Oval office right now, you know. But like, look, 301 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 5: we've also grown accustomer to the fact that this White 302 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 5: House doesn't really work on a normal time schedule, and 303 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 5: so when they say they're going to start at a 304 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 5: certain time usually means thirty or forty minutes later. 305 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 2: How important is this a dialogue here, Genie? It's happening 306 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 2: in the middle of the workday. Of course, not everyone 307 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 2: has an opportunity to listen to Bloomberg or watch it 308 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: on the terminal. Here, they're going to be looking to 309 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 2: get a little bits out there in the news later on, 310 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 2: create maybe some moments that are that are tweetable to 311 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 2: try to get the messaging across. 312 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right. First of all, everybody should be listening 313 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 6: to Bloomberg. I don't care if they're working. 314 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 2: Who cares to assume things? 315 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 6: Yeah, but you know, I would also say this is 316 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 6: critically important for President Biden. You know, we've been hearing 317 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 6: a lot of criticism in the last day or two. 318 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 6: I'm just noting in the New York Times they had 319 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 6: a piece saying Biden held fewest news conferences since Reagan. 320 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 6: So you've even got a lot of press talking about 321 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 6: the fact that he has not been out there answering 322 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 6: questions from reporters, And they cited the fact that when 323 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 6: he was in Ireland last week, he didn't hold a 324 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 6: news conference, which is standard practice. When the President of 325 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 6: Columbia was visiting, he was forced to go out and 326 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 6: hold it solo. So the fact we're going to hear 327 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 6: from both the presidents in just a few minutes, we hope, 328 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 6: is big news, both domestically and internationally. So I think 329 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 6: we're going to, you know, potentially hear an awful lot 330 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 6: about what's coming out of these talks with South Korea, 331 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 6: and also I think the president may have to field 332 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 6: some questions about the debt ceiling, about his campaign announcement, 333 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,479 Speaker 6: and other things. So it's a big news conference all around. 334 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 2: You know, you mentioned the other major story that's floating 335 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 2: in Washington. We'd haven't had a chance to get to you, 336 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 2: and that is the debt ceiling. We are expecting a 337 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 2: vote today and Speaker Kevin McCarthy says he's gonna hell, well, 338 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 2: by god, by the time it hits the floor, we'll 339 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 2: have two hundred and eighteen votes that could coincide with 340 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 2: balance of power a little bit later on. We'll let 341 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 2: you know when it happens. As it happens, of course. 342 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 2: But the Rules Committee rick went til two o'clock in 343 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 2: the morning, and they did make changes to that bill, 344 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 2: even after McCarthy said it was locked down. You got 345 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 2: the ethanol changes we talked about revoking some of those, 346 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 2: were putting back some of those subsidies, I guess in 347 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 2: the end, and then the increased work requirements. I guess 348 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 2: the Speaker had no choice. 349 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, you know, as much as he said he 350 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 5: was not going to change this bill, that he wanted 351 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,400 Speaker 5: everybody to walk the plank on the draft that he had. 352 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 5: You know, they choked at midnight and started making changes, 353 00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 5: and I think the biggest one was trying to buy 354 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 5: in the you know, basically the Iowa delegation who were 355 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 5: really upset about the biofuel's credits being taken out. But 356 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 5: but at the end of the day, so you know, 357 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 5: Andy Biggs isn't from Iowa. 358 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 2: He was complaining. Mc gates, Gates, he was complaining. 359 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 5: So I mean, like, look, there were there were six 360 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 5: or eight U Republicans that were, you know, twice as 361 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 5: many as you you you you you you you can 362 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 5: afford to lose, uh to get a bill passed. So 363 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 5: clearly they panicked last night. Now I'm not exactly sure 364 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 5: these changes are all that were needed, but and it's 365 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 5: gonna upset some of the others who were not complaining 366 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 5: about the bill that they didn't get anything extra out 367 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:36,399 Speaker 5: of it. 368 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 2: And so right now. 369 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 5: It's gonna be a real task as to whether or 370 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 5: not he can pull this off the floor. And and 371 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 5: and he's basically saying, I'm gonna I'm gonna vote even 372 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 5: if I don't think I have the votes. And uh 373 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 5: so we could actually see a situation where the vote 374 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 5: is taken and they actually don't have the votes. 375 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 2: We've seen this movie before when he was fighting for 376 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 2: the speaker's gavel here at Genie And it's all the 377 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 2: same characters pretty much who are giving him trouble now. 378 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 2: But even Nancy May says she doesn't know if she 379 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 2: can vote for this thing. What's gonna happen later? 380 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, he desperate they are to get this 381 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 6: vote today, because of course we're hearing they have attendance 382 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 6: problems on Thursday, they're out by Friday. He's headed to 383 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 6: the Middle East to give a really historic address on 384 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,719 Speaker 6: Monday in Israel, So he wants to go out on 385 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 6: a good, positive note. But he's got a you know, 386 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 6: careful not to lose more than four And of course 387 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 6: you mentioned him Gates, Birch At Perry Biggs, all the 388 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 6: old you know standbys, and then Mace and some others 389 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 6: who are giving him trouble. But let's remember we're talking 390 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 6: about a wish list, a bill that is a message bill. It's, 391 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 6: by all intents and purposes, a bill that will never 392 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 6: see the light of day if he can't push this through. 393 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 6: Can you imagine how bad this gets in June and 394 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 6: July when we're talking about raising the debt ceiling when 395 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 6: it really matters, Because right now, quite frankly, everybody knows 396 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 6: it doesn't matter, and they're still giving him a hard time. 397 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 6: So I don't think this bodes well for what's coming 398 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 6: in June and July when we hit that debt ceiling. 399 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 2: I think I might also have attendance issues on Thursday. 400 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 2: By the way, if somebody could sell my boss that Rick, 401 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,439 Speaker 2: he's going to the president. That is President Biden's going 402 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,679 Speaker 2: to have to answer questions, I presume on this that's 403 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 2: the first thing they're going to ask. It's not going 404 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 2: to be about South Korea today. 405 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 5: So yeah, the only thing that would be really bad 406 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 5: news for Joe Biden is that they pass this and 407 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 5: they get there to eighteen and then he's forced to 408 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:26,719 Speaker 5: have to make a decision saying, oh, I'm not going 409 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 5: to negotiate, I want to clean bill. And now you know, 410 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 5: it looks like an endorsement of the Speaker's position. In 411 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 5: the House, they'll have a bill out there that says 412 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 5: here's how you raise the debt ceiling, and Biden's going 413 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 5: to have to react to that. And there's no question, 414 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 5: I don't think anybody I've talked to in Washington says 415 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 5: the same thing, which is Biden's going to have to 416 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 5: come off of this position. So how artfully or artfully 417 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 5: he does that is going to dictate whether or not 418 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,439 Speaker 5: he goes in in a strong position to negotiate with 419 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 5: the Speaker or a lessoned position. And right now, if 420 00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 5: the speaker gets his vote, he's going to have some momentum. 421 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 2: The other big story that we're following today, and I 422 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 2: want to get both of you on this before the 423 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 2: news conference begins. Here is in Florida, as Walt Disney 424 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 2: Company sues Governor Ronda Santis. They're actually filing suit here 425 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 2: in federal court and Florida alleging that he is retaliating 426 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:20,360 Speaker 2: against the company for speaking against his policies, threatening billions 427 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 2: of dollars in business. This is government versus corporate. Remembering, 428 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 2: of course, it wasn't that long ago that he wasn't 429 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 2: only going after the zoning status of the Reedy Creek district, 430 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 2: but you know, even threatening to start toying with the 431 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 2: business in any number of ways. Remember the whole prison 432 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 2: joke here, well, what should we do with this land? Right? 433 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 5: And so you know it's like okay, kids, I mean 434 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 5: people have said, you know, maybe have another maybe create a. 435 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 2: State parks, maybe how to do more amusement parks. 436 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 5: Someone even said like maybe you need another state prison. 437 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 2: Who knows. I mean, I just think that the possibilities 438 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 2: are are endless. And so that is now going to 439 00:21:59,960 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 2: be analyzed to see what would make the most sensibilities 440 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 2: are now endless. Rick, including a lawsuit that reads, quote, 441 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 2: a targeted campaign of government retaliation orchestrated at every step 442 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 2: by Governor DeSantis as punishment for Disney's protected speech now 443 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 2: threatens Disney's business operations and jeopardizes its economic future in 444 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 2: the region, violating its constitutional rights. This is going to 445 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 2: be a landmark case, isn't it. 446 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, this can be landmark case. It could wind up. Look, 447 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 5: it's in a federal court for reason. They didn't take 448 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 5: it to state court in Florida. That means that it 449 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 5: could be appealed all the way to the Supreme Court 450 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 5: pretty quickly. 451 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: Wow. 452 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 5: And it really supercharges this whole concept of you know, 453 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 5: the war on Woke that that Governor DeSantis likes to 454 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 5: talk about so much. 455 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 2: Well, Woke is now fighting back. 456 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 5: And I think one of the things that's really interesting 457 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 5: in their approach is they've said that Governor DeSantis is 458 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 5: weaponizing government against corporations, against their corporation. And it's the 459 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 5: same thing that Republicans say about the Biden administration, that 460 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 5: they've used the Justice Department to weaponize government against people. 461 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 5: So I think it's now you've got the top is 462 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 5: turned over, and now Governor de Santis has to defend 463 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 5: the weaponization of his administration against companies. 464 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,160 Speaker 2: What do you think on this one, GINI this could 465 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 2: either undo Ron DeSantis' presidential dreams or confirm them. 466 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 6: It could. This is a big part of the theory 467 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 6: of his case. This is what he has stood on, 468 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 6: is this battle against Disney. And you hear many even Republicans, 469 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 6: very frustrated that he is taking this to the mat 470 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 6: that he will not give up. And what are we 471 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 6: talking about. It's stunning. We're talking about a Republican saying 472 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 6: the government should be more powerful than businesses. And what 473 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,119 Speaker 6: Disney has said here is we have the right to 474 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,679 Speaker 6: free speech. Why is the government stepping in and trying 475 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 6: to thwart that? That is a very moving argument for 476 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 6: many Republicans and many Democrats. I think Disney has done 477 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 6: a very smart thing here and they have really taken 478 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 6: it to Ronda Santis. He's going to have to either 479 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 6: give up, which we doubt because it will upend his 480 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 6: chances of running, or he's gonna have to push back. 481 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,639 Speaker 6: And I think either way this is a losing battle 482 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 6: for Ronda Santis. 483 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,440 Speaker 2: Would you rather be Ronda Santis or Bob Iger right now. Rick, Oh, 484 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 2: I've always wanted to run Disney. You kidding me. I'm 485 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,879 Speaker 2: the Mickey man, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. As we 486 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 2: wait for the two presidents to emerge, we've got eyes 487 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 2: on the Rose Garden and this is supposed to start 488 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 2: the original time more than an hour ago. So obviously 489 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 2: this meeting in the Oval Office is something that's going 490 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 2: not only over time, but probably of incredible import and 491 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 2: we'll hear about it when they come out. We'll bring you, 492 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 2: of course, portions of that news conference from the White House. 493 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 2: Here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. 494 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 495 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 496 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App non demand wherever 497 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. 498 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 2: Rick Davis says, whether that's along with Jeanie Shanzino Bloomberg 499 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 2: Politics contributors, as we talk through the issues of the day. 500 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 2: Not only this important conversation that's actually happening as we 501 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 2: speak between these two presidents in the Oval Office, but 502 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 2: Whialt Disney's lawsuit against Ron De Santis, something that just 503 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,160 Speaker 2: emerged today, a massive story, and the way it plays 504 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:26,360 Speaker 2: into the presidential campaign is a whole other matter. And 505 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 2: with that said, the ad wars have begun. It's funny, though, 506 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 2: President Biden and Donald Trump not actually targeting each other 507 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 2: in these new ads, not directly at least. This is 508 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 2: the first Biden super pac had to hit the airwaves 509 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 2: one day after he announced his re election campaign. Pretty 510 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 2: classic approach. 511 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 7: Here, as the sun rises, we raise the flag, a 512 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 7: symbol of all that we hold most dear as American 513 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 7: voiceover courage, opportunity, democracy, freedom are the values and beliefs 514 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,679 Speaker 7: that built this country and still beat in our hearts, 515 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 7: under attack by an extreme movement that seeks to overturn elections. 516 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 2: So pretty consistent with the announcement yesterday, It's kind of 517 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 2: what you expected. He does not mention Donald Trump in 518 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 2: this ad. They you know, they may show images and stuff, 519 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 2: but not targeting him by name. Remembering yesterday he was 520 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 2: campaigning against MAGA, and the latest Trump ad does not 521 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: mention Joe Biden. It does show him again, but it 522 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 2: does mention the governor of Florida, who, of course Trump endorsed. 523 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 8: Just two days after the endorsement, DeSantis took a commanding 524 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 8: lead and it propelled him to being elected. 525 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,360 Speaker 5: Now, I'd like to thank our president for standing by 526 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,360 Speaker 5: me when it wasn't necessarily the smart thing to do. 527 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 1: You're welcome, Bron. 528 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 8: Unfortunately, instead of being grateful, DeSantis is now attacking the 529 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 8: very man who saved his career. 530 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 2: And they're all like the fattest pictures they can find 531 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 2: of Ron de Santis, at one point zeroing in on 532 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 2: his stomach. Then they pull out and you see him 533 00:26:55,119 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 2: standing there waving with Donald Trump right behind him. Wars 534 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 2: have begun, Rick Davis a pretty good production work here. 535 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 2: How's each side doing in its own approach? 536 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think on the Biden side, it's exactly what 537 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 5: you would expect. Almost starts with sort of a good 538 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 5: morning America and has this, you know, very positive feeling. 539 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 5: That's what I would have expected out of the Biden 540 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 5: campaign and the pivot onto the sort of extreme movement, 541 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 5: you know again, kind of the MAGA attack without putting 542 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 5: their name on it, I mean, and that was very 543 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 5: consistent with his announcement video, where he's almost attacking a 544 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 5: movement more than a person more than a candidate, and 545 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 5: so I think we're in store for that kind of 546 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 5: campaign where he's going to sort of paint the Republican 547 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,919 Speaker 5: Party as this extremist element controlled by the Mega Movement, 548 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 5: and that that's going to be his opponent for a while. 549 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. And as far as the Trump ad goes, 550 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 2: he's not even paying attention to Joe Biden right now. 551 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 2: I suppose he doesn't need to if he wants to 552 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 2: first win the nomination. 553 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, he's doing something that I would encourage all you 554 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 5: cannons to do in a Republican primary, is try to 555 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 5: kill off the candidate before he even announces. And I 556 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,919 Speaker 5: don't think that's gonna be possible in this case. But 557 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:13,120 Speaker 5: they're clearly trying to create a narrative around around DeSantis 558 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 5: that is gonna make it hard for him to jump 559 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 5: off and have a good, stolid announcement period of time 560 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,400 Speaker 5: once he does get into the race. I don't think 561 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 5: they're going to disuade him from running, you don't, but 562 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,919 Speaker 5: they're certainly gonna make it hard for him to do so. 563 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,120 Speaker 2: I don't know, Jeannie, would you jump in a race 564 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,679 Speaker 2: with this kind of stuff going on? This is just 565 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 2: the beginning. Is it possible he keeps Ron DeSantis from 566 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 2: jumping in. 567 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 6: You know, it is possible, but I am not sure 568 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 6: it's in Trump's interest. My view is this, Trump wants 569 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 6: a weakened DeSantis in this race. He wants you and 570 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 6: me and everybody else he can get in this race, 571 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 6: because the more people in this race, the more likely 572 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 6: he wins the nomination. If it's a head to head, 573 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 6: it's gonna be a little tougher for Trump. So I 574 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 6: think he's doing everything he can to weaken and he 575 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 6: already has. If you look at the polls round DeSantis. 576 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 6: We saw today Asa Hutchinson now in the race. So 577 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 6: the more of these guys that get in there, the 578 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 6: better for Trump. We've always known that, so you know, 579 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 6: I think he'd like a weekend run De Santas. We're 580 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,680 Speaker 6: even hearing inklings and I can't believe I'm gonna say 581 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 6: this that there's talk that he might could think about 582 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 6: Ron De Santis as vice president. Could you imagine. I'm 583 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 6: not saying that it would happen, but gosh, probably a 584 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 6: better choice than Carrie Lake. 585 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:22,479 Speaker 8: You know. 586 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 6: So between Ron DeSantis and Tucker Carlson, he's got some 587 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 6: people to choose. But you know, I think he does 588 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 6: want a weekend field, but a large field to help 589 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 6: him secure this thirty thirty five percent that's never gonna 590 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 6: leave Trump. 591 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,440 Speaker 2: There's a second Trump ad that's out today as well. 592 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 4: Rick. 593 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 2: There were two that were unleashed at the same time, 594 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 2: and this one's a little bit more casually. You see 595 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 2: a guy in his kitchen, he's looking up at the wall. 596 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 2: He's got a red hat and a blue hat hanging 597 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 2: near the door. Of course we know the red hat, 598 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,240 Speaker 2: the blue hat, says DeSantis, so on. 599 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 7: It this no one looks pretty good partially. 600 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 5: Did you know Ron DeSantis backed deep cuts to Social 601 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,040 Speaker 5: Security and medicaing. 602 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 2: After him titles here. 603 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, he voted to cut Social Security or Medicare not once, 604 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 5: not twice, but three times. 605 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 2: So that's gonna be a major theme of this initial 606 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 2: campaign between Trump and DeSantis. He's framing him every day. 607 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 2: Is the guy who wants to cut Social Security for 608 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 2: your grandma? 609 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, No, there's no question that he's going to tag 610 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 5: DeSantis as the guy in Congress who is part of 611 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 5: the Freedom Caucus who is after those entitlement programs, right, 612 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 5: And that's just one piece of it right. I mean, 613 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 5: he's gonna go after him on abortion at some point 614 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 5: in time, probably because it's inconsistent with Trump's view. I mean, 615 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 5: like there's a wide range of differences between DeSantis and Trump. 616 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 5: And what's really interesting is he's doing as will DeSantis 617 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 5: is out of the country. So it's really going to 618 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 5: upset the DeSantis team that they can't, like immediately fire back. 619 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,160 Speaker 5: But I would say one thing, Donald Trump, he's not 620 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 5: proven that he can expand his base any further than 621 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 5: it is now, So the last thing he needs is 622 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 5: anybody being a rival to that number. And DeSantis has shown, 623 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,720 Speaker 5: even before he's launched a camp with hundreds of millions 624 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,960 Speaker 5: of dollars in the bank, that he can actually meet 625 00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 5: those numbers in places like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, 626 00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 5: and certainly exceed them in Florida. So even though the 627 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 5: national polls don't show DeSantis as being competitive to actually 628 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 5: win in a national race, he has got all the 629 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 5: capability right now to contest and win in these early 630 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 5: primary states. And that's the only thing that matters. And 631 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 5: that's why Donald Trump is using this time right now 632 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 5: to take him down a notch. 633 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 2: It's really something and Donald Trump has a way of 634 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 2: doing this, Jennie, by taking your strengths and turning them 635 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 2: into weaknesses. These are all the issues that put Rond 636 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 2: De Santis on the map. 637 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 6: That's right, and this is very smart politics because of 638 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 6: course we know that it is still the third rail 639 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 6: of politics. Don't touch social security and medicare. The Biden 640 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 6: team knows that, and the Trump team knows that, and 641 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 6: they are calling Ronda Santis out on his vote when 642 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 6: he was in Congress. I don't think he's been able 643 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 6: to respond in a coherent way. Yet we have to 644 00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 6: go forward and see if he will. But you know 645 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 6: another thing I would just watch for is we saw 646 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 6: in the last couple of days Steve Danes endorse Donald Trump, 647 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 6: the chair of the NRSC. That is big, big news. 648 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 6: Signals to me that like Joe Biden, he sees Trump 649 00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 6: as the leader obviously in the polls and potentially going 650 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 6: to capture this nomination, and he doesn't want to get 651 00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,760 Speaker 6: too far afield of Donald Trump as this Republicans try 652 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 6: to take back the Senate. But of course Donald Trump 653 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,920 Speaker 6: is going to have his litmus test. Twenty twenty was 654 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 6: stolen and is Steve Danes going to allow him to 655 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,040 Speaker 6: pick candidates in states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia 656 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 6: that will abide by that litmus test. It's going to 657 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 6: be fascinating as we go forward to see how many 658 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 6: of these senators come out with him. 659 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 2: How do you interpret that move? 660 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:43,600 Speaker 4: Rick? 661 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 2: Is this the establishment coalescing around Donald Trump? Or is 662 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 2: that how you'd frame it a view or him? No, 663 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:50,040 Speaker 2: not really. 664 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 5: I mean I don't think Danes is really that representative 665 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 5: of the establishment, and I think it's more home state politics, right, 666 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 5: I mean, his state's going to be overwhelmingly for Trump. 667 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,640 Speaker 5: I mean that's sort of the deep Trump bred state, 668 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 5: and I think that what you really want to hear is, 669 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 5: you know what the McConnell's superPAC, which has much more 670 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 5: money than the NRSC, does you know, does in these 671 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,480 Speaker 5: primaries that Genie mentioned, because they're not going to set 672 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 5: them out right. The lesson they learned in the last 673 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 5: cycle and the reason he's a minority leader is Mitch 674 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 5: McConnell didn't get actively enough in the primaries. He regrets it, 675 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 5: and he's not going to let that opportunity pass. He's 676 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 5: not going to let Donald Trump pick the candidates who 677 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,560 Speaker 5: are going to serve in the Senate and potentially lose 678 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 5: another opportunity to regain power. 679 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 2: Just to remind our listeners, were standing by for the 680 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 2: Q and A to begin as this bilateral news conference 681 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 2: gets underway in the Rose Garden at the White House, 682 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 2: Joe Biden at the podium, the President of South Korea 683 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,960 Speaker 2: at the other And once they wrap up their formal 684 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 2: opening remarks and get through the formalities, we'll dive into 685 00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 2: that for you and bring it to you live here 686 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio. As you would expect, I'm Joe, Matthew 687 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,120 Speaker 2: and Washington with our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. 688 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 2: When you're Rick, you've made a lot of political az 689 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 2: or directed them over the years. Here, what's the process 690 00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 2: when you sit down and figure who's the voiceover going 691 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,240 Speaker 2: to be the difference between the Joe Biden ad that 692 00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:02,680 Speaker 2: we just. 693 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 7: Heard as the sun rises, we raise the. 694 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,320 Speaker 8: Flag and the Trump ad just two days after the endorsement, 695 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 8: the sand just took a commanding lead. 696 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 2: You have to figure out music, You have to kind 697 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 2: of establish the tone. What is the process How does 698 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 2: that meeting go well? When you have time? 699 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 5: First of all, you're directed by the survey research, right, 700 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 5: you're looking at what are the issues that pop? Are 701 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,400 Speaker 5: there any that like have over sixty percent of the 702 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 5: people saying yeah, I changed my vote, you know if 703 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 5: I knew that about the guy? And those are your 704 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 5: ads that you basically create the script, and that comes 705 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 5: out of who are you trying to influence? Are you're 706 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:42,520 Speaker 5: trying to influence core suburban voters? Men, you know, rural voters, 707 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,800 Speaker 5: women's suburban voters. It just depends upon who you're targeting 708 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 5: in any particular ad, and each one's going to have 709 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,360 Speaker 5: its own feature to that, and then you cobble together 710 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 5: what you think is the sort of art side of it, 711 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 5: the grainy images, you know, as you said the first 712 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 5: and you know, like we're gonna remind everybody this guy's 713 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 5: you know, eat and pudding with his fingers and way 714 00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 5: too much putting and and it's all part of that 715 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,439 Speaker 5: sort of theme of how were we going to take him down? 716 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 2: And if you have a stable of voices and others 717 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:14,880 Speaker 2: that you work with, or it's like who's right for 718 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 2: this one, it's a different answer every time. It's always a. 719 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 5: Bit of a bonus contention. As campaign manager, you know, 720 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,200 Speaker 5: I get to have final cut on the ads. But 721 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 5: like the the ad makers, their artists, you know, and 722 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 5: they've got their preferences and and and they. 723 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,480 Speaker 2: They have certain people they like. 724 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,000 Speaker 5: And I remember having a lot of fights over trying 725 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 5: to get a woman voice over because you know a 726 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 5: lot of these guys that want to use a woman voiceover. 727 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 2: But we had a gender gap. 728 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:42,040 Speaker 5: It was huge, and I wanted women talking to women voters, 729 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,959 Speaker 5: and and that was sort of not typical. And it's 730 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,839 Speaker 5: the kind of thing where you just have to make 731 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:51,280 Speaker 5: a decision on what you think the best possible message 732 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 5: is Sure. 733 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,080 Speaker 2: The political science that goes into this is fascinating to 734 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 2: me a genie. Although there's a lot of art, as 735 00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 2: Rick just mentioned as well, isn't. 736 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,400 Speaker 6: There there is? And thank you to Rick Davis for 737 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,839 Speaker 6: pushing for the women. Thank you, Rick. We need women voiceovers, 738 00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 6: There absolutely is, and we're seeing this now. There's a 739 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 6: lot of research going on. We're seeing a lot of 740 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 6: data collected both in surveys and focus groups that can 741 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,400 Speaker 6: be incredibly helpful to these campaign teams as they design 742 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 6: their messages. And political scientists are a big part of that. 743 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,080 Speaker 6: So here here for the political scientists. But there's also big, 744 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 6: big money here, and we saw this in the twenty 745 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 6: twenty campaign, and we're going to see it in twenty 746 00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:29,800 Speaker 6: twenty two. We're going to see it in twenty twenty 747 00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 6: four in terms of the media that they generate, and 748 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:37,040 Speaker 6: especially for these smaller mid sized markets, get a lot 749 00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,319 Speaker 6: of money out of these ads. So it is a 750 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,759 Speaker 6: really fascinating conversation about how these are put together and 751 00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 6: the impact across the country. 752 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 2: Really, Yeah, it sure is. Should we assume that these 753 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,719 Speaker 2: are indicators for what we get, Rick, It's going to 754 00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 2: be kind of a traditional to your point, winning an 755 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,719 Speaker 2: America approach from Joe Biden this campaign, and you're going 756 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,799 Speaker 2: to have more sort of guerrilla warfare coming from the 757 00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 2: Trump and DeSantis camps, more humor, more irony, more insults. 758 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's the script is flipped, right. I mean, 759 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,479 Speaker 5: Joe Biden was the insurgent last time around. He was like, hey, 760 00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,160 Speaker 5: look at this guy. He's been president. He's done a 761 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,759 Speaker 5: crappy job. You know, that's why we got to and 762 00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:17,120 Speaker 5: he's out of control and there's instability and I'm stability. 763 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 2: And now you have Donald Trump. 764 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,000 Speaker 5: Actually, when you listen to him speak, say you know, 765 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 5: I'm the insurgence now, you know, the Biden administration is 766 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 5: out of control. 767 00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:27,800 Speaker 2: There's instability all over the world. 768 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:28,800 Speaker 1: I mean like they're. 769 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,799 Speaker 5: Actually reversing roles in this election cycle. And that is 770 00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,359 Speaker 5: the difference between an incumbent and a challenger. And having 771 00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,880 Speaker 5: been mostly on the challenger side, you know in the 772 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,520 Speaker 5: later half of my career in politics, I would tell 773 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,239 Speaker 5: you it's awful tough to take shots that are meaningful 774 00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,759 Speaker 5: into an incumbent president because they just have so much 775 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,920 Speaker 5: bigger infrastructure to work with, so advantage Biden in this case. 776 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,040 Speaker 2: Well, and he's likely Joe Biden that is going to 777 00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:58,160 Speaker 2: be taking a question on the campaign. I'm guessing maybe 778 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,560 Speaker 2: the debt ceiling as well, as we discussed earlier, Rick, Jeanie, 779 00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:03,319 Speaker 2: we're just about to get into the portion of Q 780 00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,440 Speaker 2: and A here in this bilateral news conference we're going 781 00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:08,520 Speaker 2: to bring our listeners to in the Rose Garden. If 782 00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,359 Speaker 2: you're Joe Biden, if you're preparing for this little session here, 783 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,759 Speaker 2: those are the questions you're brasen for today, not so 784 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,960 Speaker 2: much geopolitics. 785 00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,560 Speaker 6: Right, that's right, And you know he has not spoken 786 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,759 Speaker 6: to the press, and the press is getting antsy he 787 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,360 Speaker 6: has not, you know, according to all reports, had a 788 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 6: one on one sit down with a news organization like 789 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,719 Speaker 6: the New York Times or the Washington Post. And that 790 00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:36,040 Speaker 6: is stunning because since taking office, so he doesn't answer 791 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:37,640 Speaker 6: a lot of questions. A lot of the questions he 792 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,560 Speaker 6: does answer are by the helicopter, and so you can't 793 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,160 Speaker 6: hear very well. So he is going to be peppered 794 00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:45,920 Speaker 6: with questions about his announcement about as you mentioned, the 795 00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,120 Speaker 6: debt ceiling, is he going to negotiate if they passed 796 00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,840 Speaker 6: this thing today? And certainly you know some things about 797 00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,760 Speaker 6: the the what's happening with South Korea, but I also 798 00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 6: think he may hear some about China, about Ukraine. So 799 00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,640 Speaker 6: there's a host of things people are itching to ask him, 800 00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 6: and this thing could go on quite a long time 801 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,640 Speaker 6: if they don't cut it off, because reporters are really 802 00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,839 Speaker 6: really looking forward to being able to pepper him a 803 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:06,840 Speaker 6: host of questions. 804 00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:08,880 Speaker 2: So frequently we get the two and two is the 805 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,520 Speaker 2: agreement for a bilateral like this with a foreign dignitary. 806 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:15,200 Speaker 2: So we will have a couple from each delegation here, 807 00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 2: and then of course you're going to have translation. They 808 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,040 Speaker 2: each get to ask both leaders questions, So if you 809 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,200 Speaker 2: do the math, it could be a minute. As Genie mentioned, 810 00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:25,759 Speaker 2: will of course again bring this to you live when 811 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,000 Speaker 2: they begin. And we're getting to that point here Rick, 812 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,960 Speaker 2: where the President is again being criticized for not enough 813 00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,440 Speaker 2: news conferences. To Genie's point, he's always talking in the 814 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,359 Speaker 2: driveway about to get on the chopper. We can't even 815 00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 2: play half of it on the air because it's so loud. 816 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,400 Speaker 2: Would it behoove him to do a long Q and 817 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:41,040 Speaker 2: a here. 818 00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,239 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that he needs to air it out, 819 00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,560 Speaker 5: And of course it's helpful to him to have a 820 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,120 Speaker 5: foil like the president from South Korea that he can 821 00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:51,960 Speaker 5: actually use as an excuse for not getting too long 822 00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,680 Speaker 5: winded into these answers. That being said, we've never seen 823 00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 5: a press conference where Joe Biden doesn't get long winded 824 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,560 Speaker 5: answers and let them go hey too long for any stretch, 825 00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 5: you know, staff purposes where they're like, holy smokes, you know, 826 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:06,320 Speaker 5: we should. 827 00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,360 Speaker 2: Have got three of us a couple of hours around. 828 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 5: Indeed, so it's always a high wire act for Joe 829 00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,440 Speaker 5: Biden when he's in front of a group of reporters. 830 00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,400 Speaker 5: And that's probably the reason we don't see. 831 00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,400 Speaker 2: Him do it very often. Yeah, you know, and this 832 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,520 Speaker 2: is of course a formal setting. I suspect that the 833 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,960 Speaker 2: campaign will need to do something beyond this genie where 834 00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,839 Speaker 2: he's really talking about his plans for the next year 835 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:27,840 Speaker 2: and now he wants to keep his job at the 836 00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:28,360 Speaker 2: White House. 837 00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,600 Speaker 6: Yeah, and you know, they have had task ahead of 838 00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,240 Speaker 6: them because, as Rick was just talking about, Joe Biden 839 00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:36,680 Speaker 6: likes to talk and he often says things that then 840 00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 6: they have to walk back. I mean, look at what 841 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 6: he said four times about if China invaded Taiwan. They 842 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,319 Speaker 6: keep having to walk these things back. So you know, 843 00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,000 Speaker 6: they don't like to put him off script as much 844 00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:49,839 Speaker 6: as they could, like to keep him on script rather 845 00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,239 Speaker 6: as much as possible, but it's not easy. This is 846 00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:55,160 Speaker 6: the Joe Biden we've known for fifty sixty years. 847 00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:59,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 848 00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:03,400 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 849 00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,480 Speaker 1: tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 850 00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:06,799 Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Business App. 851 00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,799 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 852 00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:14,320 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 853 00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 2: The really big story inside the bubble. Despite the state visit, 854 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,680 Speaker 2: they're gonna have a gorgeous state dinner over there tonight, Kaylee. 855 00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,800 Speaker 2: I'm sure that you're going. I get the gown ready. 856 00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:28,400 Speaker 2: But the debt ceiling proposal put forth by Speaker McCarthy 857 00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,640 Speaker 2: tweaked as recently as two o'clock in the morning. Apparently 858 00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,960 Speaker 2: he folded during the Rules committee hearing and they did 859 00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,680 Speaker 2: get changes. We talked about this earlier with Rick and 860 00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,759 Speaker 2: Jeanie when it comes to work requirements and when it 861 00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:42,279 Speaker 2: comes to the ethanol subsidies. So there's going to be 862 00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:43,840 Speaker 2: a vote. We don't know if he has two eighteen. 863 00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,120 Speaker 2: And that's the big question right now. What time is 864 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,840 Speaker 2: it going to happen and what will be the outcome? 865 00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,200 Speaker 2: And I'd love to hear what Libby Kantrell thinks about this, 866 00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:56,080 Speaker 2: The head of public policy at Pacific Investment Management Company PIMCO. 867 00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,719 Speaker 2: Libby is back with us, Kaylee here on Bloomberg Sound On. 868 00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:00,839 Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging on. Libby. All been sort of waiting 869 00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:02,439 Speaker 2: all day to find out what was going to happen 870 00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,880 Speaker 2: there in the Rose Garden. But the president is making 871 00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:08,319 Speaker 2: headlines on the debt limit. The Republican majority in the 872 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,240 Speaker 2: House is as well, is this going to pass tonight? 873 00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:13,360 Speaker 9: Hi, Joe A nice to be with you again. It 874 00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:17,919 Speaker 9: looks like it's going to. It just cleared a very 875 00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:23,440 Speaker 9: important procedural hurdle passing the rule pass, which, as you know, 876 00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:27,240 Speaker 9: is sort of the first big step to ultimate passage 877 00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:29,160 Speaker 9: of a bill. If you look at the vote, two 878 00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,560 Speaker 9: hundred and nineteen, so just squeaked it out. Of course, 879 00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:35,560 Speaker 9: you need two hundred and eighteen to pass anything these 880 00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:39,440 Speaker 9: days in the House. That's sort of setting up probably 881 00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:43,160 Speaker 9: final passage of this bill by this evening now, as 882 00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,280 Speaker 9: you're sort of indicating this is kind of the beginning 883 00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:49,000 Speaker 9: of the dance, if you will, the opening salvo. But 884 00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,759 Speaker 9: it is important, even though this is symbolic and has 885 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,480 Speaker 9: no chance to pass and the Senator besign into law, 886 00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,360 Speaker 9: it is symbolically important for Speaker McCarthy to show some 887 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,799 Speaker 9: unanimity along the caucus as they try to begin this 888 00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:03,240 Speaker 9: negotiation with the President. 889 00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:07,160 Speaker 10: But on that point, Libby, it is clear that this 890 00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,799 Speaker 10: was difficult for him. I mean, to Joe's point, he 891 00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,960 Speaker 10: did have to cave on some things again, just like 892 00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,560 Speaker 10: he had to cave to certain members of his party 893 00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:19,160 Speaker 10: to get the speakership position in the first place. I mean, 894 00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:24,000 Speaker 10: what does this signal more broadly about the factions within 895 00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,239 Speaker 10: the Republican Party and McCarthy's ability to get them all 896 00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:27,720 Speaker 10: in line. 897 00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:32,120 Speaker 9: Well, that there are factions. There are five, you know, 898 00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:35,440 Speaker 9: these five families so to speak, and kind of Washington speak, 899 00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:40,400 Speaker 9: these are different factions within the caucus, including House Freedom 900 00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,240 Speaker 9: Caucus members and then some more centrist folks, the problem 901 00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,880 Speaker 9: solver folks who are more in the more in the center. 902 00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,480 Speaker 9: I mean, his strategy. Some of us, you know, you 903 00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,200 Speaker 9: might question it. Why would you come to up here 904 00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:57,080 Speaker 9: to New York and announce a deal when you don't 905 00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:00,560 Speaker 9: necessarily have two eighteen. That may have kind of weakened 906 00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,359 Speaker 9: his hand a little bit, But the most important thing 907 00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,160 Speaker 9: is that he will be able to It looks like 908 00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,759 Speaker 9: he will be able to pass this. And again this 909 00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:13,160 Speaker 9: is just the kind of the opening bid, if you will, 910 00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:16,160 Speaker 9: in a broader negotiation. But this is a really important 911 00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:18,440 Speaker 9: first step for him. And the fact that he was 912 00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,640 Speaker 9: able to get this and you know, not makes too 913 00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:24,200 Speaker 9: many concessions. You know, there were some tweaks, as you 914 00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,680 Speaker 9: all mentioned. Again, this is all theoretical because this is 915 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,239 Speaker 9: not going to be signed into a law. But of 916 00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,560 Speaker 9: course members are very cautious of what they're going to 917 00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,200 Speaker 9: vote forks and vote forks, and they're on the record, 918 00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,759 Speaker 9: and that of course can be used against them, you know, 919 00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,800 Speaker 9: come twenty twenty four when they're running for re election, Libby. 920 00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:49,200 Speaker 2: Here's President Biden talking about this a short time ago. 921 00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:48,160 Speaker 11: Figured out the dead limit. 922 00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 4: Yet, I want to say. 923 00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,480 Speaker 11: Happy to maybe recards you, but not on whether or 924 00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:02,960 Speaker 11: not the dead limit gets e that's not negotiable. I 925 00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:06,120 Speaker 11: noticed they quote Reagan and they quote they quote Reagan 926 00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,640 Speaker 11: all the time, and they quote Trump, both of which 927 00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:12,000 Speaker 11: said it says, I'm paraphrasing, it would be an absolute 928 00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:13,879 Speaker 11: crime to not extend the. 929 00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,080 Speaker 2: Debt paraphrasing Livy, you know that they tend to quote 930 00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,799 Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan in this Democratic White House 931 00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,920 Speaker 2: when it comes to this. So let's advance here a 932 00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:26,799 Speaker 2: couple of steps. Whether this gets past today or not, 933 00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:30,640 Speaker 2: the debt limit will need to be addressed. How likely 934 00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,880 Speaker 2: is a short term solution, because everyone's talking about, you know, 935 00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,400 Speaker 2: their forever home here, how likely is it that we 936 00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,640 Speaker 2: find a way to suspend the debt ceiling until fall? 937 00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:40,160 Speaker 2: So it coincides with the budget. 938 00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:42,960 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think, as you know, I think 939 00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,399 Speaker 9: folks are going to be very reluctant to take two 940 00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:49,440 Speaker 9: debt ceiling votes before the November twenty twenty four election. 941 00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,360 Speaker 9: So I think if you know, if and when this 942 00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:55,600 Speaker 9: negotiation starts, and I do think that there will have 943 00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,959 Speaker 9: to be some engagement from Democrats in order to find 944 00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,239 Speaker 9: a resolution here or this will be one of the 945 00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,000 Speaker 9: things that they will likely negotiate. Again, I think President 946 00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,680 Speaker 9: Biden will be very inclined, in addition to a lot 947 00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,400 Speaker 9: of members on both sides of the aisle, including some Republicans, 948 00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,360 Speaker 9: who don't want to have to take two debt sailing 949 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,640 Speaker 9: votes again before the November election to try to push 950 00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:18,160 Speaker 9: that deadline back, you know again, So I'm of the 951 00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:22,040 Speaker 9: view that a short term extension seems quite unlikely. Again, 952 00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:23,920 Speaker 9: why would you want to try to force folks to 953 00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,480 Speaker 9: take two votes if you can just take one vote? 954 00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:30,080 Speaker 9: But clearly is you know, is an option. I do think, Joe, 955 00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,719 Speaker 9: it's going to be somewhat dependent though, when this X 956 00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,319 Speaker 9: state is and I think this is where where you're 957 00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:36,200 Speaker 9: seeing a lot of uncertainty in the markets, especially on 958 00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:39,360 Speaker 9: the front end of the curve right now is that 959 00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,200 Speaker 9: there is a lot of uncertainty about when this X 960 00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,239 Speaker 9: state is going to fall. Not only, of course, are 961 00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:47,000 Speaker 9: capital gain receipts lower and just tax receipts lower in general. 962 00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,480 Speaker 9: You also have this has been so a little bit underreported, 963 00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:53,440 Speaker 9: you have sort of these special disaster zones that have 964 00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,800 Speaker 9: allowed taxpayers to not file in April, but to actually 965 00:46:56,880 --> 00:47:01,359 Speaker 9: extend the filing into October. That's a lot of California 966 00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:05,359 Speaker 9: because of these wildfire fires and floods and storms. Unfortunately, 967 00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,640 Speaker 9: a lot of California is sort of under this ability 968 00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,600 Speaker 9: to file and October. The reason I bring that up 969 00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,320 Speaker 9: is California is about fifteen percent of the tax receipts. 970 00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:16,960 Speaker 9: So if Californians are not filing, though they will file, 971 00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:20,000 Speaker 9: they'll just file later. That is also another headwind to 972 00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:23,320 Speaker 9: tax receipts. So all just saying that we don't know 973 00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:25,080 Speaker 9: when the X date is, it could be as early 974 00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,239 Speaker 9: as you know, early June, in which case then it's 975 00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:31,160 Speaker 9: probably a short term debt ceiling increases a little bit 976 00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:33,600 Speaker 9: more likely just to kind of get everyone's you know, 977 00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:35,960 Speaker 9: ducks in a row to so to speak. But if 978 00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,719 Speaker 9: the X state is more probably that kind of end 979 00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,440 Speaker 9: of July August, as we've talked about before, then I 980 00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,279 Speaker 9: think a longer term resolution, a longer term extension will 981 00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:45,520 Speaker 9: be part of the negotiation. 982 00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,960 Speaker 10: Yeah, well, in theory, we should get more clarity about 983 00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,600 Speaker 10: what the Treasury actually thinks the X state is, even 984 00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:54,399 Speaker 10: in just the next couple of days. And really it's 985 00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,320 Speaker 10: going to be about whether they can get to June 986 00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,440 Speaker 10: fifteenth or not, because if it's early June, of course, 987 00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:03,440 Speaker 10: this is an entirely different equation. And Libby, you were 988 00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,279 Speaker 10: just referencing the idea of twenty twenty four in the 989 00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:10,040 Speaker 10: role that that election plays in this entire dynamic. We 990 00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,680 Speaker 10: also have to keep in mind that the president finally 991 00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:16,640 Speaker 10: formally announced he is seeking re election this week. So 992 00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,040 Speaker 10: how does that color how he approaches this? 993 00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,360 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean it is, yes, Yeah, he has just 994 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:25,920 Speaker 9: as you all know, kind of the worst kept secret 995 00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,239 Speaker 9: in Washington. Folks have been talking about this. Now. 996 00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,880 Speaker 6: We all knew it was coming, but it's coming exactly. 997 00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,640 Speaker 9: We all knew if it was coming. It was just 998 00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:37,239 Speaker 9: a question of when not if. Yeah, I mean I 999 00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:40,120 Speaker 9: definitely think that you know, this is we're getting in. 1000 00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,280 Speaker 9: We will get closer to kind of the silly season, 1001 00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:46,160 Speaker 9: if you will. In some ways, though, because of course, 1002 00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,760 Speaker 9: as we know that you know, these elections, these national 1003 00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:52,520 Speaker 9: elections on the presidential side had been elected, have been 1004 00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:55,319 Speaker 9: determined just by a handful of states, including in kind 1005 00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:59,920 Speaker 9: of more of these swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia. 1006 00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:03,680 Speaker 9: It may actually behoove him to try to kind of 1007 00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:09,560 Speaker 9: lean towards the kind of more fiscally responsible arguments. This 1008 00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,719 Speaker 9: is actually kind of the playbook that he used when 1009 00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:15,400 Speaker 9: he was vice president, when he was senator, he was 1010 00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:17,960 Speaker 9: you know, at least gave rhetorick to being more kind 1011 00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:21,279 Speaker 9: of fiscally restrained. And you may actually see him think 1012 00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,160 Speaker 9: that it's a political benefit, But I do also think 1013 00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:26,960 Speaker 9: he's really trying to draw aline in the sand between 1014 00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:29,480 Speaker 9: the dead ceiling, which of course we're only raising dat 1015 00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,040 Speaker 9: in order to pay for spending that we've already agreed 1016 00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:35,200 Speaker 9: upon to kind of negotiations around future spending. So he 1017 00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:38,920 Speaker 9: behooves him to try to separate those conversations, but it 1018 00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:42,080 Speaker 9: actually might also behoove them politically to be sort of 1019 00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:46,600 Speaker 9: viewed as maybe more reasonable or responsible from a fiscal perspective, 1020 00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:49,040 Speaker 9: kind of open question on that would. 1021 00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,319 Speaker 2: Be canceled from Pimco with us on Bloomberg Radio out 1022 00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,760 Speaker 2: with a fascinating note today for clients. By the way, Libby, 1023 00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,400 Speaker 2: thank you for sharing it. As you write, Equity markets 1024 00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:59,080 Speaker 2: typically are later to react and usually don't get skittish 1025 00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:02,240 Speaker 2: until days or week weeks before the X date, remembering, 1026 00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:04,640 Speaker 2: of course twenty eleven when we got the downgrade two 1027 00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,280 Speaker 2: weeks before the X date. So I wonder your thoughts 1028 00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,040 Speaker 2: on when the freak out begins in the market here, 1029 00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:13,840 Speaker 2: because your bottom line view is that the destination is 1030 00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,440 Speaker 2: known bumpy ride, albeit but the US will not. 1031 00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:20,880 Speaker 9: Default, Livy, Yeah, exactly. I mean we've seen this movie before. 1032 00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,800 Speaker 9: We know how it ends, but we know the destination, 1033 00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:25,560 Speaker 9: but it will be it will be bumpy, and of 1034 00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:27,719 Speaker 9: course that's fiduciary, is right. Which we which can go 1035 00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:31,080 Speaker 9: is we have to take this threat seriously and so 1036 00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:34,359 Speaker 9: and you're already seen, as I alluded to before, some 1037 00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,360 Speaker 9: dislocation in the treasury bill market as folks try to 1038 00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,520 Speaker 9: get out of that three month position into the one 1039 00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,680 Speaker 9: month position because it's a more certain there's more certainty 1040 00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:44,960 Speaker 9: that they can avoid the X date if they're that 1041 00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:48,080 Speaker 9: one month month position. So we're starting to see it 1042 00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:51,520 Speaker 9: in the CDs market. That is a very very thinly 1043 00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,560 Speaker 9: traded liquid market, so I would put too much stock 1044 00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:56,319 Speaker 9: into it, but it does sort of show you that 1045 00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,120 Speaker 9: kind of the fear factor in that in that very 1046 00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,520 Speaker 9: small market is high. Equity markets are kind of the 1047 00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,920 Speaker 9: last to react. They usually don't react until kind of 1048 00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,719 Speaker 9: the weeks, if not days before the X state. So 1049 00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:10,879 Speaker 9: as we sort of talked about, once we get more 1050 00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,200 Speaker 9: clarity around the X state, I think kind of markets 1051 00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:17,120 Speaker 9: will sort of shift and reprice based on that. If 1052 00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:19,759 Speaker 9: it's closer, expect a kind of a sooner freak out. 1053 00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:22,279 Speaker 9: If it's more kind of in the August timeframe, I 1054 00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,480 Speaker 9: think you'll sort of expect markets to be a little 1055 00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:27,600 Speaker 9: bit more sanguine until that point. 1056 00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,520 Speaker 10: That's kind of the near term, Libby, But I also 1057 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:34,680 Speaker 10: wonder longer term how you think about how this affects 1058 00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:39,760 Speaker 10: the investment thesis for investing in the US in US assets. 1059 00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:42,400 Speaker 10: When we do this dance time and time again, and 1060 00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,960 Speaker 10: there is always this lingering question of whether or not 1061 00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:49,640 Speaker 10: we are going to pay out all of our obligations 1062 00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,560 Speaker 10: and not default on our debt, I mean, I can't 1063 00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:57,120 Speaker 10: imagine that that kind of overhang lends support to the 1064 00:51:57,160 --> 00:52:00,239 Speaker 10: idea that this is a safe place to park your money. 1065 00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,800 Speaker 9: Yeah, and I think that has been the concern among 1066 00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:06,799 Speaker 9: folks who you do take this seriously. And there you know, 1067 00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,680 Speaker 9: as we may, we may, you know, hear folks who 1068 00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:13,479 Speaker 9: have a minority view, but there are many serious folks 1069 00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,920 Speaker 9: in Washington, many adults in the room, so to speak, 1070 00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:19,520 Speaker 9: who I do think are concerned about how this may 1071 00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:24,680 Speaker 9: undermine our credibility and undermine just the assumption that the 1072 00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:28,480 Speaker 9: US dollar will continue to be the reserve currency. Now 1073 00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,640 Speaker 9: with that said, what that said, And and Bill Gross, 1074 00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:33,480 Speaker 9: the founder of UMCO, used to have a saying of 1075 00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:36,320 Speaker 9: you know that the US was the cleanest dirty shirt, 1076 00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:39,880 Speaker 9: and that kind of continues, you know, it continues. It 1077 00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:41,759 Speaker 9: was a bit depression thing to say when he said it, 1078 00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:44,239 Speaker 9: you know, fifteen years ago, and I think it still 1079 00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:49,719 Speaker 9: applies today that there really isn't necessarily a viable alternative. 1080 00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,279 Speaker 9: Of course, you know, most assets are are lots of 1081 00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:57,120 Speaker 9: assets are priced in dollar. Uh and and you know, 1082 00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,560 Speaker 9: the just the in terms of the rule of law 1083 00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:03,680 Speaker 9: and a lot of property that the dynamism of our economy, 1084 00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:09,239 Speaker 9: it still means the US is quite attractive and is 1085 00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:11,680 Speaker 9: still viewed as a safe haven. Now to your point, though, 1086 00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:13,920 Speaker 9: I'm not sure that we can you know, rest on 1087 00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,920 Speaker 9: our laurels. But for the kind of intermediate time period, 1088 00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:19,359 Speaker 9: you know, we think this the kind of the d 1089 00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:23,200 Speaker 9: dollarization is a little bit overstated. We are seeing central 1090 00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:25,799 Speaker 9: banks diversify away from the dollar, but that's much more 1091 00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,799 Speaker 9: incremental than it is you know, widespread, and again we 1092 00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,759 Speaker 9: don't think and at least the intermediate time frame, that's 1093 00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:34,600 Speaker 9: not really a real risk. 1094 00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:37,480 Speaker 2: Libby, thank you so much for the insights today, and 1095 00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:40,359 Speaker 2: thanks for waiting through the news conference. Lebby Cantrill, head 1096 00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:42,359 Speaker 2: of public Policy at PIMCO, with a lot to think 1097 00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:45,080 Speaker 2: about today in a really fascinating note on what might 1098 00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,400 Speaker 2: come from this whole debate, never mind just the vote today, Kaylee. 1099 00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:52,800 Speaker 2: So if it passes, which of the five families wins? 1100 00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:54,360 Speaker 2: Is my question? 1101 00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:55,960 Speaker 10: It's very game of thronesy. 1102 00:53:56,320 --> 00:54:00,960 Speaker 2: I'm thinking Godfather, oh that too, I mean, does the 1103 00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:06,359 Speaker 2: Freedom Caucus win in that case? Who gets Sunny? And 1104 00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:11,319 Speaker 2: what's wrong with Michael? Today We'll be following the vote 1105 00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,480 Speaker 2: through the day for you here of course, here on 1106 00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,560 Speaker 2: Bloomberg and you know. By the time we're on Balance 1107 00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:18,279 Speaker 2: of Power at five o'clock on Bloomberg TV, we may 1108 00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:22,200 Speaker 2: have an answer. Does the five families sit down at 1109 00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:27,520 Speaker 2: the table together to hash it out? Thanks for listening 1110 00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:29,880 Speaker 2: to The Sound on Podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 1111 00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:32,719 Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 1112 00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:35,480 Speaker 2: get your podcasts. And you can find us live every 1113 00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,879 Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at 1114 00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,359 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.