Speaker 1: The volume this week on Prime Cuts, Chad Milman, Sharper Square,
Speaker 1: Nick right on what Else, Andy Reid, Mahomes and the
Speaker 1: Chiefs in my top takes of the week. It is official.
Speaker 1: They worked late last night and early this morning. Agents
Speaker 1: involved hurdles finally crossed and eclipsed. Jim Harbaugh is the
Speaker 1: coach of the LA Chargers. It is easily the best
Speaker 1: current job available in the NFL because you have Justin Herbert.
Speaker 1: Now I talked about this recently. Next year, Josh Allen,
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, dak Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, Derek
Speaker 1: Carr potentially could all need a coach this year seven
Speaker 1: eight openings. One elite quarterback Justin Herbert, who again as
Speaker 1: a rookie with the thirty six thirty second ranked offensive
Speaker 1: line with the Chargers. His rookie year, he broke all
Speaker 1: the touchdown records for a quarterback. So since then he
Speaker 1: has been under coached and undersupported. This was the right choice.
Speaker 1: It is the best current job available and you very rarely,
Speaker 1: I mean, when's the last candidate that eventually became a
Speaker 1: coach that was a sure thing. I mean, Matt Lafleur
Speaker 1: was respected as a coordinator. There was no sure thing
Speaker 1: replacing Mike McCarthy. I mean Mike McCarthy going to the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: He had a Super Bowl, but that was not a
Speaker 1: sure thing. Dealing with Jerry Jones and it hasn't been
Speaker 1: a sure thing. Jim Harbaugh is about as sure thing
Speaker 1: as you get. I mean, even Belichick if he went
Speaker 1: to Atlanta tomorrow, there's no sure thing. I have a quarterback.
Speaker 1: Rabel's a great coach, goes to Washington, what if they
Speaker 1: picked the wrong quarterback. This is a sure thing. Harbaugh's
Speaker 1: worked everywhere and immediately. And this is not a terribly
Speaker 1: heavy lift. Sean Payton at Denver's a big lift. This
Speaker 1: is they have some cap issues and they also have,
Speaker 1: you know, one of the top picks, which they don't
Speaker 1: need a quarterback or a left tackle or an edge rusher.
Speaker 1: And that's what is all over the top twenty picks
Speaker 1: in this draft. They could use a tight end. Brock
Speaker 1: Bowers will be available to them. They could probably move
Speaker 1: down two or three spots and still land brock Bowers
Speaker 1: and get a second or a third round pick. What
Speaker 1: they need to do is hit on some draft picks
Speaker 1: Beyond the first round. It's a very strong draft, So
Speaker 1: the first fifteen to eighteen picks are really good players.
Speaker 1: After that, you know, the percentages go down. But Harbaugh's
Speaker 1: ability to know personnel because of the last decade at
Speaker 1: Michigan is going to be incredibly beneficial. This is not
Speaker 1: a big lift that you've got to move off. Probably
Speaker 1: a Khalil Mack. You get more for Bosa, but they'll
Speaker 1: probably he's a little fragile, but they'll probably keep Bosa.
Speaker 1: I would guess move off Khalil Mack. You know they
Speaker 1: may move off at Derwin James. Not sure what they
Speaker 1: do with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams. But what they need
Speaker 1: they have what the draft is furnishing at the very top,
Speaker 1: so they have the ability to move down several spots
Speaker 1: and accumulate more picks, and Harball will crush it with
Speaker 1: his picks. The other thing is they don't really have
Speaker 1: a situation where Dean Spanos is not a medaler. He's
Speaker 1: really not. Now you could argue in San Diego they
Speaker 1: had a small staff, they didn't spend enough money. You
Speaker 1: can argue they were cheap. I don't view them similarly
Speaker 1: in Los Angeles and he's not a medaler. There's Spanos.
Speaker 1: Kids are in the building. But again on the operational side,
Speaker 1: Tom Telesco had free reign to do what he wanted
Speaker 1: to do. He got Tom's good friend, never bad mount.
Speaker 1: The Chargers loved his job. Wishes he wouldn't have missed
Speaker 1: on J. C. Jackson, but he furnished Harball with a
Speaker 1: lot of good players, and now they've got a really
Speaker 1: good pick. So this is really a perfect situation and
Speaker 1: a very easy lift hit on some draft picks. This
Speaker 1: is not Tennessee or Atlanta or Washington or New England
Speaker 1: or even that's we had a quarterback, but a massive
Speaker 1: cap hit. Herbert still a year away from being a
Speaker 1: punitive cap hit. They are about forty five million over.
Speaker 1: But again, you can circumvent some of that stuff by
Speaker 1: hitting on draft picks and moving out a couple of players.
Speaker 1: I think Harbaugh is just very unique personality. I've said
Speaker 1: this before both harba as. You can't pigeonhole John Harbaugh
Speaker 1: knows offense. Jim Harbaugh knows defense. When Harbaugh was in
Speaker 1: San Francisco, they had four top ten defenses with the
Speaker 1: Niners no top ten offenses. They were a mess. I
Speaker 1: don't think they'd had a winning season in eight years
Speaker 1: previous to Harbaugh, and he turned that thing around in
Speaker 1: year one Michigan, year one Stanford. I think took a
Speaker 1: couple of years, but he had some upset wins in
Speaker 1: the first year. So this is not a big lift. Boy,
Speaker 1: what a division. Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh. Those
Speaker 1: are really really good football coaches. But the thing about
Speaker 1: the Chargers is some businesses just need a new boss.
Speaker 1: Some need a culture changer. Washington command need a culture
Speaker 1: changer and a coach. The Chargers need a culture changer
Speaker 1: and a coach. I think Atlanta just needs a coach.
Speaker 1: I think they have a good owner, Rich McKay, really
Speaker 1: nice pieces. Offensively, they just need a quarterback in the
Speaker 1: right coach. I don't think they're a lousy culture. Washington
Speaker 1: and the Chargers just too many missteps. The Staly thing
Speaker 1: was a bit of a mess. It just feels like
Speaker 1: they have to kind of right this ship a strong.
Speaker 1: This La markets crowded, man, it's a crowded market. People
Speaker 1: get distracted if you're not good. People have options. The
Speaker 1: Beats the Mountains. Vegas is a forty minute flight away, Rams, Dodgers, USC, UCLA, Clippers, Lakers.
Speaker 1: It's distracted. You got to win, and so I think
Speaker 1: Carbo is gonna win his first year. I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna win a lot. I think they're going to be
Speaker 1: a high end playoff team immediately, and I can't wait
Speaker 1: for it. Falcons did not hire Bill Belichick, who I thought,
Speaker 1: if he wanted personnel control, was one of the weaker candidates.
Speaker 1: I'm not interested in that. They hired Raey Morris. So
Speaker 1: Raheem was a coach and Tampa didn't work. Was a
Speaker 1: great assistant after Brandon Staley left for the Rams, became
Speaker 1: mcveigh's best friend on the staff and did very, very
Speaker 1: well with a really young defense. Morris is one of
Speaker 1: those guys like Demiko Ryans or Sean McVay. Very impressive
Speaker 1: in person, kind of you know, just a guy, eye contact,
Speaker 1: really smart point of view. So Raheem interviews very well.
Speaker 1: I've been told that numerous occasions. Probably I would have
Speaker 1: gone after maybe a Mike Rabel again, defensive coach. They
Speaker 1: don't have a quarterback. But I think this is what
Speaker 1: Belichick is falling into, is that it's really funny that
Speaker 1: Bill doesn't really have any vulnerability, Like Bill's gonna do
Speaker 1: what Bill wants to do. That's why he's got his
Speaker 1: kids on the staff, and he hires coaches who are
Speaker 1: He had a very weak staff, fired guys in New England.
Speaker 1: So you know, Bill wants more control than Arthur Blank
Speaker 1: and Rich McKay are willing to give. And had Bill
Speaker 1: read the room, he would have known that Arthur Blank
Speaker 1: has never hired a big time head coach. He's always
Speaker 1: given it to up and coming coaches who don't feel
Speaker 1: like they have to own the room. Blank's a brilliant businessman.
Speaker 1: Rich McKay is excellent with operations and certainly knows talent.
Speaker 1: Terry Fontineau from the Saints is a smart guy that's
Speaker 1: well thought of around the league. I mean he's not
Speaker 1: you know, we don't look at him quite as a
Speaker 1: less Sneed maybe yet, or a Mickey Loomis in New
Speaker 1: Orleans yet, or a Howie Roseman or a Brett Veach.
Speaker 1: But he is well thought of. But I think Belichick
Speaker 1: the thing that worries you if you're Atlanta. He's a
Speaker 1: milestone guy. Is he really care about Atlanta? Never? Never, never, coached, really,
Speaker 1: I mean head coach in Cleveland, then in New England.
Speaker 1: I didn't know much about the NFC South. He has
Speaker 1: drafted fifteen quarterbacks, one star Brady, one starter Garoppolo, two
Speaker 1: to three capable backups, and ten misses. So I think
Speaker 1: Bill was going up against recent history in Atlanta, where
Speaker 1: they're going to take a Dan Quinn, They're going to
Speaker 1: take a Raheem Morris, They're going to take a young,
Speaker 1: up and coming assistant that's not going to need to
Speaker 1: dominate personnel. And I'll be honest with you, the Seahawks'
Speaker 1: last two drafts have been much stronger when John Snyder
Speaker 1: was empowered by ownership and controlled the drafts. Pete in
Speaker 1: a vacuum in Seattle when Paul Allen died, had a
Speaker 1: lot of power. It frustrated John Snyder, who went and
Speaker 1: sought the Detroit Lions job, got a raised. They brought
Speaker 1: him back to Seattle, and there were some assurances that
Speaker 1: he would have more control than the draft. I have
Speaker 1: it on two different sources who I trust implicitly is
Speaker 1: that Pete would sometimes have a very strong opinion and
Speaker 1: it would sway the Seahawks rafts, and for years in
Speaker 1: a year. I was told this for years by people
Speaker 1: in the league. I respected that Seahawks drafts were unpredictable. Now,
Speaker 1: Pete's were very good when he came out out of
Speaker 1: college out of USC at a two or three year
Speaker 1: run where they're excellent. But like most pro coaches, he's
Speaker 1: not sitting around watching college football all Saturday. He's looking
Speaker 1: at NFL stuff, in at NFL personnel, in film. And
Speaker 1: I thought Seattle's drafts got much better in the last
Speaker 1: couple of years when John Snyder exerted more power. I
Speaker 1: think Belichick's last seven drafts have mostly been absolutely abysmal. Why,
Speaker 1: once again, I have it sourced for multiple people that
Speaker 1: as he started stacking rings in net worth and power,
Speaker 1: he was more difficult for Brady to deal with. And
Speaker 1: he told mid January the draft department, the scouts. I
Speaker 1: got it from here. It's hard to find any hits
Speaker 1: in the last seven drafts. On the offensive side, They've
Speaker 1: had two Pro Bowlers, one's a punter. So I don't
Speaker 1: think coach. I remember when Mike Home was in Seattle
Speaker 1: years ago, great coach. He had a little bit too
Speaker 1: much power. When he first started in Seattle, he struggled
Speaker 1: with a couple of early drafts. You're asking drafting is
Speaker 1: hard enough for great jams. Howie Roseman has had huge whiffs,
Speaker 1: and how he's brilliant and completely dedicated. So the idea
Speaker 1: that Bill Belichick, any of these coaches won over fifty
Speaker 1: percent power. John Gruden, by the way, with the Raiders,
Speaker 1: had the final say with Mike Mayock. I know that
Speaker 1: because it's sourced. Go look at the Raiders first round picks.
Speaker 1: In later rounds, Gruden would let Mayock have more control.
Speaker 1: But in that first round, there's first second round. John
Speaker 1: thought he was the television John Gruden and exerted too
Speaker 1: much power and control and they had multiple major whiffs. Gruden,
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, Mike Holmgren. Those are just four examples.
Speaker 1: The best way to do it is less Snead and
Speaker 1: the Rams and Sean McVay where McVeigh has absolute say,
Speaker 1: but they really work collaboratively. They really work together very
Speaker 1: very well. Sean, if he does have the final say,
Speaker 1: is very respectful about it. But they're really committed to
Speaker 1: the process from beginning to end. And last year they
Speaker 1: had a sensational draft outside of Stetson Bennett, who had
Speaker 1: struggled I think with some things personally, and they're not
Speaker 1: sure if that's going to work. He was a fourth
Speaker 1: round pick, but they nailed their second round pick, two thirds,
Speaker 1: multiple fifths. It was a great draft for them. Even
Speaker 1: picked up some guys late in the sixth and seventh round.
Speaker 1: So you know Belichick has got to read the room.
Speaker 1: His drafting record is atrocious. And though Raheem Morris I
Speaker 1: probably would have gone to the offensive side, they just
Speaker 1: had an offensive coach and it didn't work. So there
Speaker 1: is a history in this league. Demiko Ryans is the latest.
Speaker 1: If you have a top defensive coach and a star
Speaker 1: quarterback in CJ. Stroud certainly emerged looks like a star,
Speaker 1: top six to seven quarterback, you can hoist trophies. I
Speaker 1: don't think defensive coaches are as good with marginal quarterback talent.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're good when they have a disruption
Speaker 1: at quarterback. A backup like a Gardner Minshew or a
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. Shane Stikeen and Kevin Stefanski hit it out
Speaker 1: of the park. But if you have a Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: or a Josh Allen or a CJ. Stroud or Brady
Speaker 1: in his prime or Big Ben in his prime. I'm
Speaker 1: okay with defensive coaches. So if they nail, if they
Speaker 1: draft the third or the fourth quarterback and nail it,
Speaker 1: rahe Morris will be a fine coach. If they draft
Speaker 1: somebody and it doesn't hit and they're marginal, he'll probably struggle.
Speaker 1: It is a weak division. But Belichick didn't get it.
Speaker 1: He didn't get the Chargers. Reportedly, Ben Johnson is a
Speaker 1: slam dunkin Washington. To me, those are the three best
Speaker 1: jobs Carolina. Nope, that's taken two by a young coach.
Speaker 1: So and when you get older, Belichick, a year off
Speaker 1: is not an advantage. That that's not necessarily an advantage.
Speaker 1: Sean Payton was seeing closer to his prime, Mike Rabel
Speaker 1: seen as closer to his prime. Belichick is, and his
Speaker 1: draft record shows it. Allergic to offense, tone deaf, offensively,
Speaker 1: not building great staffs. He is not only past his prime,
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Speaker 1: and Out. I thought, if Buffalo won, they were in
Speaker 1: big trouble against Baltimore, that two healthy linebackers go into
Speaker 1: I think Kansas City. So the line is Baltimore minus three.
Speaker 1: I thought Kansas City has a has a real shot
Speaker 1: to win that game. I felt like Buffalo they were
Speaker 1: just falling part physically, and I think that thing that's
Speaker 1: frustrating if you're a Bills fan is that it just
Speaker 1: becomes so Josh Allen dependent. You can't count on the defense,
Speaker 1: you can't count on health. Now, you can't count on
Speaker 1: the kicker McDermott's fake punt, I can't count on the coach.
Speaker 1: It just always feels like Josh is puts the cape
Speaker 1: on and when they lose, you're like, he's not the issue,
Speaker 1: and it just feels like, you know, in previous years,
Speaker 1: there was no run game. Now they have a run game.
Speaker 1: In previous years, there was weakness in the conference. It's
Speaker 1: it's this is this was the year for Buffalo. John
Speaker 1: Kansas City doesn't have a number two receiver. They have
Speaker 1: some undependable hardman Tony some some players. Now Tony didn't
Speaker 1: play today, right, So, but they have these players all
Speaker 1: year long, and you saw it today with a fumble
Speaker 1: at the goal line, Kansas City opens the door to
Speaker 1: beat them multiple times a game now they never did
Speaker 1: in the previous five years. And Buffalo at home still
Speaker 1: can't put them away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, this is the worst loss.
Speaker 3: I just don't see how you shake this if you're
Speaker 3: that franchise, because, like you said, you're playing this team
Speaker 3: that kind of comes limping in relative to what they've been.
Speaker 3: Who made big play after big play today was Valdez Scantling.
Speaker 3: He hasn't kind of cold all season long. He had
Speaker 3: multiple huge catches. Yeah, I think when you're a player
Speaker 3: or two away like Buffalo has been, like the forty
Speaker 3: nine ers have been, like the Chiefs, and you buy
Speaker 3: a big free agent, you need that guy to hit.
Speaker 2: So look at the forty nine ers, right, they.
Speaker 3: Get Tarvarius Warden Hargrave. Immediately those guys are Pro Bowlers.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs they signed Justin Reid a couple of years ago,
Speaker 3: you feel them all over the field. They went all
Speaker 3: in on von Miller. Now he tore his ACL but
Speaker 3: it was an older player and that was a disaster.
Speaker 3: And when you are paying a lot of guys money
Speaker 3: and you go all in on one player, then he
Speaker 3: gets injured and he's clearly a shell of himself. Now
Speaker 3: you feel that, like, where are their impact players beside?
Speaker 3: Like you said, they're built like a basketball team right now,
Speaker 3: they have a superstar player and when he's you know,
Speaker 3: incredible like he was today making plays left and right,
Speaker 3: but your margin frer is still so tiny. And like
Speaker 3: you said, they had guys dropping like flies. The injuries
Speaker 3: were starting to mount up, and they some of those
Speaker 3: guys that got hurt came back in the game. You're like,
Speaker 3: thank god, I don't know who he would have thrown to,
Speaker 3: but man to miss that kick, I mean, this is
Speaker 3: a franchise that does feel a little snake bitten. And
Speaker 3: who knows. I mean, I listen Sean McDermott going forward
Speaker 3: on that punt. They got bailed out obviously by the
Speaker 3: fumble a couple of plays later, but that was that
Speaker 3: was a questionable move. It really well, you're playing a
Speaker 3: team that's offense is the entire season has struggled, like
Speaker 3: you just punt and I get your punters hurt. That
Speaker 3: was a huge part of this game, right there, punters hurt.
Speaker 3: He could barely punt, so to lose that game at
Speaker 3: home as the favor, that's something it's hard to shake.
Speaker 1: Nick right, I want to throw this at I thought
Speaker 1: about this. I really do think Andy Reid has an
Speaker 1: argument as in that Bill Walsh vein is. I think
Speaker 1: he really is one of the three or four seminal
Speaker 1: great coaches in my lifetime. He's aged so grace fully
Speaker 1: in terms of his intellect, and he takes it's almost
Speaker 1: a joyful experience. He'll he'll text me in the off
Speaker 1: season plays He'll go, He'll send me a piece of video.
Speaker 1: He goes, I'm running this. I'm not telling you when,
Speaker 1: but I'm running it.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's like a kid.
Speaker 1: So nobody's ever of all the thirty for thirties that
Speaker 1: haven't been made, the one I think I've told you
Speaker 1: this before that's never been made that I would love
Speaker 1: to see it. Michael Jordan the Wizard years. What a
Speaker 1: disaster it was. The players hated him. Nobody's ever made it.
Speaker 1: People forget what a mess it was. But I imagine
Speaker 1: Jordan has the ability to stop it or talk about it,
Speaker 1: and others won't bad mouth him. But those years disappear
Speaker 1: into the ether. Ore Em was a band that I loved,
Speaker 1: and then they went off the rails in my opinion,
Speaker 1: and started sounding different, and I never listened to him again.
Speaker 1: But I still love r Em. I don't hold it
Speaker 1: against him. The greatest actors have been in terrible movies.
Speaker 1: Marlon Brando was in you know, six or seven classics
Speaker 1: and six or seven awful movies. It's never held against him.
Speaker 1: Yet with Belichick, I cannot unsee the last four years
Speaker 1: in New England. He is completely tone deaf. He can't
Speaker 1: draft he it's as if he has no understanding of offense.
Speaker 1: He can't draft it, he can't develop it, he can't
Speaker 1: hire it, and it really it's making. I can't get
Speaker 1: rid of it. I can get rid of Jordan bad movies.
Speaker 1: I don't punish actors, directors, stars. I can't unsee what
Speaker 1: I've seen from Belichick in four years, so I can't
Speaker 1: keep him in the Walsh Vein and I'm and if
Speaker 1: Andy reels off a couple more so that.
Speaker 4: This said something you said. You said this for the
Speaker 4: first time before the Chiefs won last year. I remembered
Speaker 4: it was before it was It was when it looked
Speaker 4: like they really could but they hadn't yet won. I
Speaker 4: think it was maybe the week leading up to the
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, but you started to I think kind of
Speaker 4: soft launch the idea of could Andy Reid become the
Speaker 4: greatest coach of all time? And when you first said it,
Speaker 4: I think everyone's immediate reaction is that's ridiculous, like no,
Speaker 4: But what I don't think people recognize it, And I'm
Speaker 4: just gonna pull it up real quick NFL Head Coaches
Speaker 4: Wins Wiki. I don't think people understand where he is
Speaker 4: right now on the wins list because it is way
Speaker 4: higher than you think. So on he has regular season
Speaker 4: and postseason combined, so he's twenty four plus two fifty eight,
Speaker 4: so he is at two eighty two total wins. He
Speaker 4: is fourth all time on that list. All right, He
Speaker 4: is probably not gonna catch Bill, but he is clo
Speaker 4: he has got a real chance of finishing third all
Speaker 4: time and passing George hallis right on just playoff wins,
Speaker 4: he could absolutely catch Bill Bill's it thirty one?
Speaker 2: Andy is it twenty four? Isn't that incredible? That's it?
Speaker 4: It doesn't it's it's incredible. And so it's like, wait
Speaker 4: a minute. Then the other thing, because I had this
Speaker 4: graphic for first things. First we never used it, but
Speaker 4: it was Pete Carroll, who's obviously in a different class.
Speaker 4: But Pete Carroll's record with Russell Wilson without Russell Wilson,
Speaker 4: and it's like, really really really pardon me, really really good,
Speaker 4: not good at all. Belichick with Brady without Brady, unbelievable,
Speaker 4: and then below five hundred Andy with Mahomes without Mahomes
Speaker 4: and it's unbelievable.
Speaker 2: And then it's really damn good. Yes, so it is.
Speaker 4: And Yep, Donovan McNabb was good, not great, He was good.
Speaker 4: Mike Vick post prison what I love. Michael was good,
Speaker 4: not He had one great year. But how much of
Speaker 4: that was because of Andy?
Speaker 2: Was that? You know what I mean? Andy put his
Speaker 2: arms around him.
Speaker 1: Andy helped all Michael Vick acknowledges it was because of him.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 4: Alex Smith the only section of his career that was
Speaker 4: highly successful was with Andy.
Speaker 2: So it's not that he had nobody's at quarterback.
Speaker 4: I'm not saying that, but he was able to win divisions,
Speaker 4: win playoff games, go to conference championships, and go to
Speaker 4: a super Bowl without.
Speaker 2: A Hall of Fame quarterback.
Speaker 4: Did all of that, and then the moment he got
Speaker 4: the Hall of Fame quarterback instantly it was the most
Speaker 4: prolific offense in the history of the league that first year. Yes,
Speaker 4: and so there is something to be set and his dexterity.
Speaker 1: It's like the reason we look at Prince as one
Speaker 1: of the great musicians. His ability to i mean like
Speaker 1: classically play multiple instruments. That's why he separates from other
Speaker 1: even great performers. His dexterity and he's ability conference division
Speaker 1: quarterback to win everywhere. There is no way to separate
Speaker 1: Belichick's career other than Brady years non Brady years, and
Speaker 1: those are increasingly not just mediocre, they're getting to be embarrassing,
Speaker 1: well out of touch.
Speaker 4: Right and so and the other part of it that
Speaker 4: is just the truth of it, and every Some people
Speaker 4: don't like when someone makes this point or I make
Speaker 4: this point, but the opposite of it, Like sometimes the
Speaker 4: best way to understand if an argument is a legitimate
Speaker 4: one is imagine if the exact opposite happened, what your.
Speaker 2: Feelings would be, Oh, that's good.
Speaker 4: If Tom Brady went to Tampa and they were three
Speaker 4: and thirteen and the next year four and twelve and
Speaker 4: then he retired, would that be a plus or a
Speaker 4: minus for Bill's resume that it would obviously be a plus.
Speaker 4: Now it would be a little different because he was
Speaker 4: Older'd be like, ah, he got old, but it would
Speaker 4: be a plus. It'd be like, hey, Tom left there.
Speaker 4: They had two years prior won the super Bowl. The
Speaker 4: previous year they had won eleven twelve games and been
Speaker 4: in the playoffs, and then immediately fell you know what
Speaker 4: I mean, fell apart. Instead, he left and immediately won
Speaker 4: the super Bowl and the next year almost won League
Speaker 4: MVP and was in Round two of the super Bowl
Speaker 4: in a close in a tie game with a minute left,
Speaker 4: so or in round two of.
Speaker 2: The playoffs, I should say.
Speaker 4: So that obviously hurts Bill a bit. Maybe it's not fair,
Speaker 4: but it is what it is. That Tom was able
Speaker 4: to leave and have the highest success one can have
Speaker 4: individually and team wise, won a super Bowl, came in
Speaker 4: second in MVP voting. When Tom left Bill's team, it
Speaker 4: went for mediocre to downright offal in a very short
Speaker 4: period of time. And so that had That's a part
Speaker 4: which is why I thought it was that it was
Speaker 4: going to be so important for Bill to go coach
Speaker 4: the Cowboys or the Eagles or the Bills where he
Speaker 4: can then even the score to would agree because it
Speaker 4: would then help Bill immensely. If the Cowboys haven't been
Speaker 4: able to get over the hump for thirty years, he
Speaker 4: gets there and they do, then it's like, oh, okay,
Speaker 4: you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: That was him.
Speaker 4: He just had problems drafting players the last few years.
Speaker 2: And so it is.
Speaker 4: It is a at least an interesting.
Speaker 2: Idea.
Speaker 4: And here's the other thing that I would say, and
Speaker 4: this is why I think the count the rings stuff
Speaker 4: across sports. This is not a Lebron argument, but it
Speaker 4: touches It can be so foolish.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, they.
Speaker 2: Count the rings.
Speaker 4: Thing demands that we simply say, both Brady and Belichick
Speaker 4: are the greatest of all time, but those rings are
Speaker 4: so you understand what I mean, Like they both had
Speaker 4: Brady now a seven. But let's just say Brady retired
Speaker 4: right when the Patriots era ended, that he retired, and
Speaker 4: the count the rings thing demands that Phil and Michael
Speaker 4: and that these things, but that then it almost creates
Speaker 4: an extra ring. If I know, I'm not describing this properly,
Speaker 4: but the Brady and Belichick's rings are intertwined. Yet they
Speaker 4: both get credit when compared to other quarterbacks or other coaches.
Speaker 4: There's no shared credit. And so if we're just to
Speaker 4: encount the rings, then it has to be that, you
Speaker 4: know what I mean, they're both the greatest of all time,
Speaker 4: when I don't really feel that.
Speaker 1: Way, all right, Chad Millman, CEEO Action Network Sharper Square,
Speaker 1: All odds provided by DraftKings. So had I bet last
Speaker 1: week I would have gone three and one. I had
Speaker 1: the bills, shame on me, everything else, everything else, I
Speaker 1: was on the right side.
Speaker 5: Come on, come on, no, no, no, no, no, you don't.
Speaker 5: You don't get credit for had I bet you either
Speaker 5: did or you didn't. Well say, there is no try,
Speaker 5: there is do or do not. You didn't do anything
Speaker 5: last week. You watched some football and maybe you would
Speaker 5: write about what you were thinking.
Speaker 1: Okay, so this week I love the pick. I think
Speaker 1: the lines are wrong this week. First of all, we
Speaker 1: are overvaluing the Chiefs because They've played a completely decimated
Speaker 1: Miami defense in minus twenty seven degrees with a quarterback
Speaker 1: that can't throw the ball deep, and then they play
Speaker 1: an absolutely ravaged Bills defense missing six starters. So we're
Speaker 1: overvaluing who they are. Baltimore is a team that wrecked
Speaker 1: San Francisco, dominated Miami, destroyed Detroit. You know my favorite
Speaker 1: number in this business, minus four.
Speaker 2: I think the Ravens.
Speaker 1: Role Mahomes is hard to blow out, but I don't
Speaker 1: think they'll have success running it with Pacheco. Here comes
Speaker 1: Marlon Humphrey back to guard Rashid Rice. I think the
Speaker 1: Ravens are one of the best playoff bets, believe it
Speaker 1: or not. At minus four, Sharper square.
Speaker 5: So sharp that if you end up not betting it
Speaker 5: and then just thinking about betting it, doing yourself a disservice.
Speaker 5: It was sharp when it was minus three last Sunday,
Speaker 5: it was sharp when it was three and a half.
Speaker 2: It's still sharp at four.
Speaker 5: The wise guys love the Ravens in this game. It
Speaker 5: is a scary, scary bet, not because of what the
Speaker 5: Chiefs have done the past two weeks, and you're using
Speaker 5: the right terminology. They're overvalued based on their season long results.
Speaker 5: But it's still Patrick Mahomes Man, and it's still Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 5: who's nine one and one in his career as an underdog,
Speaker 5: who's two and zero straight up in his career as
Speaker 5: an underdog, who's eight and three straight up in his
Speaker 5: career as an underdog. The reason why this bet is
Speaker 5: scary is because the idea of betting against Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 5: laid in the game and he is stepping up in
Speaker 5: the pocket against a really good pass rush and you
Speaker 5: don't know where the ball is going yet because you
Speaker 5: can't see it on TV and who's on the other
Speaker 5: end of it. You have no idea, but you're pretty
Speaker 5: sure it's going to be completed, and you're pretty sure
Speaker 5: it's going to be a long pass because someone was
Speaker 5: in single coverage and some receiver is wide open.
Speaker 1: That's the fear.
Speaker 2: So you're right. Sharp's are on it. Sharps love it.
Speaker 5: Defense is dominating for Baltimore, and their rush offense will
Speaker 5: destroy the Chiefs rush defense. And the Chiefs, by the way,
Speaker 5: missing Joe Toney, their offensive guard, who is one of
Speaker 5: the highest rated pass blocking guards according to Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 5: In every way the Ravens should destroy the Chiefs, except
Speaker 5: the Chiefs have a cheek code and Patrick Mahomes. So
Speaker 5: I will tell you what I've done, which is only
Speaker 5: slightly less untoured and cowardly than claiming credit for Beth
Speaker 5: you didn't make. I bet the Ravens minus two and
Speaker 5: a half first half, all right, because I'm scared, because
Speaker 5: I'm afraid of Patrick Mahomes. But every otherwise guy is
Speaker 5: piling in on the Ravens, and there I agree with
Speaker 5: you one hundred percent.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: I like the Lions plus seven and a half. So
Speaker 1: if you take I do this with big games. I
Speaker 1: take the top ten players and then the top fifteen.
Speaker 1: The Lions are stacked. I have eight seven Lions eight
Speaker 1: players to seven for the Niners. Now, if you go
Speaker 1: top five, McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams. But when you start
Speaker 1: extrapolating from the fourth best player, and it's Pine Suel
Speaker 1: and it's Hutcheson, and it's Amaran Saint Brown, and it's
Speaker 1: Jared Goff's the better quarterback. The weather's not a factor.
Speaker 1: We know this is a team that doesn't play well,
Speaker 1: and windy or cold weather going to be sixty seven degrees.
Speaker 1: It's going to be dry. There's going to be no wind.
Speaker 1: Jared Goff played plenty of outdoor games in the Bay Are,
Speaker 1: yet he's fine. This offensive line's better. The Niners offensive
Speaker 1: line center right is actually one of the weak spots
Speaker 1: on the team. Neither team has a great secondary. What
Speaker 1: concerns me about San Francisco the names are bigger than
Speaker 1: the production up front. Defensively, their rush has been hit
Speaker 1: and miss over the last six seven weeks. Bosa absolutely,
Speaker 1: Chase Young, meh, you're not getting the names right now.
Speaker 1: It's like a hotel chain you went to when you
Speaker 1: were a kid. You go about ten years later and
Speaker 1: you're like, it's kind of an average hotel. The name's
Speaker 1: bigger than the property, right You've seen that with golf courses, hotels.
Speaker 1: I think right now I can't unsee the Ravens crushing
Speaker 1: them or the Packers out playing them. I think Detroit
Speaker 1: matches up, may not win. I think seven and a half.
Speaker 1: I think the numbers should be closer to six five
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm taking the lion Sharper square.
Speaker 5: So the wise guys have been on the Niners. It's
Speaker 5: one of the reasons why this number is moving. In fact,
Speaker 5: it's a really interesting stat Then the Lions are a
Speaker 5: huge liability for the sports books this weekend, not because
Speaker 5: there's so many people on the Lions. At plus seven
Speaker 5: and a half, there's forty four percent of the money
Speaker 5: according to our tracking on the Lions money line. Like
Speaker 5: people are just piling on the Lions to win this
Speaker 5: game out right, more than they like the Lions to
Speaker 5: actually cover the spread. But the wise guys have been
Speaker 5: on the Niners, and there's a couple factors in play.
Speaker 5: You cannot discount how bad this Lion's secondary is. Right,
Speaker 5: look at what they've given up to players like Nick
Speaker 5: Mullins multiple four hundred or near four hundred yard games,
Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield more than three to fifty, Matthew Stafford more
Speaker 5: than three fifty.
Speaker 2: Rock Party.
Speaker 5: There should be no bashing of Brock Purty. All the
Speaker 5: guy has done in a season and a half is
Speaker 5: starting is lead his team to two different NFC title games,
Speaker 5: lead the league in passing yards, and be as effective
Speaker 5: and efficient as any quarterback Kyle Shannon's Shanahan has had
Speaker 5: and he's the reason why he is closer to winning
Speaker 5: a Super Bowl than he has ever been. This is
Speaker 5: a much better team than the Lions across the board,
Speaker 5: and there's a real big factor I think for the
Speaker 5: Lions their offensive line. Jonah Jackson isn't going to be
Speaker 5: playing in this game. When Jonah Jackson played this past
Speaker 5: week against a heavy blitz from the Buccaneers, zero pressures
Speaker 5: in any of his snaps, he goes out at the
Speaker 5: end of the game seven pressures in eighteen snaps given
Speaker 5: up by his replacement, Jared Goff. Getting pressure up the
Speaker 5: middle when he cannot step up is not the same
Speaker 5: quarterback no matter what the conditions are. So whise guys
Speaker 5: are back in the Niners. Here also the X factor,
Speaker 5: it's Deebo Samuel. Look when the Niners have Deebo Samuel
Speaker 5: twelve and one this year, winning games by an average
Speaker 5: of eighteen points per game. There's one game when they
Speaker 5: did not win by double digits. That was Week two
Speaker 5: on the road at the Rams A Division game they
Speaker 5: only won by seven. Deebo is a complete game changer.
Speaker 5: And I am checking Debo's availability because I already bet
Speaker 5: the Niners minus six and a half. I am checking
Speaker 5: his availability NonStop, and he's still fifty to fifty progress
Speaker 5: but in pain. He's a major major factor for this game.
Speaker 5: So even without Deebo, the wise guys have been betting
Speaker 5: the Niners. With Deebo, I think you'll see this number skyrocket. Yeah.
Speaker 1: By the way, he does get a break played on Saturday. Now,
Speaker 1: this game's on Sunday, so you get another twenty four hours,
Speaker 1: and we know with surgery or injuries, twenty four hours
Speaker 1: is a long time. I want to ask you about
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh. So it was funny. I was in Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: You know they call it the city of Angels. I've
Speaker 1: heard that, yes, and Harball is no angel. But it
Speaker 1: was NonStop, wall the wall coverage of Harball in Los Angeles,
Speaker 1: the second biggest city in the country. And I said
Speaker 1: to somebody that I know that's close to the Chargers,
Speaker 1: I said, you guys probably made about six million dollars yesterday.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in coverage, it.
Speaker 1: Was it was wall. It led every newscast. I mean,
Speaker 1: it was the story in LA. And then the Chargers
Speaker 1: have fifty one thousand season tickets. If they can get
Speaker 1: to about fifty seven to five, which they could probably
Speaker 1: sell the stadium out now with Herbert and Harbaugh, but
Speaker 1: they don't want to because as a warm mother city,
Speaker 1: they want the Denvers and Kansas cities to come in
Speaker 1: and to be able to elevate the prices based on
Speaker 1: how hot and how big the game is. So if
Speaker 1: they get to like fifty seven fifty eight thousand season tickets,
Speaker 1: that extra six thousand plus all the publicity you get,
Speaker 1: you kind of pay for Harbaugh twenty million bucks a year.
Speaker 1: So Harbaugh not that he's a bargain, but this feels
Speaker 1: like seven of the twelve losses for the Chargers were
Speaker 1: three or less significantly more than the league. So this
Speaker 1: is not a rebuild like Houston. This is like a
Speaker 1: five win team that could win eleven and it feels
Speaker 1: totally reasonable. Where would you put the over under.
Speaker 2: If you had to?
Speaker 1: If you I thought to myself, am I nuts?
Speaker 2: It's ten? Am I nuts?
Speaker 5: So it's funny you say that, Hey, I love the
Speaker 5: way you're thinking about the economics of this deal. It's
Speaker 5: not that dissimilar. Remember when ESPN went out and signed
Speaker 5: Tory Aigman and Joe Buck for eight figure yearly contracts,
Speaker 5: Everyone's like, what are they doing? Meanwhile, it puts him
Speaker 5: in better with the NFL. They get better games the
Speaker 5: ad rates go up, they sell more commercial time, the
Speaker 5: ratings go up. Those deals were paid for in one game. Right.
Speaker 5: You just made the same point with Harbaugh. It doesn't
Speaker 5: matter what they pay him. They were going to pay
Speaker 5: for it in some way, shape or form by the
Speaker 5: publicity they were getting, in the attention they were getting,
Speaker 5: and oh, by the way, it's going to be such
Speaker 5: a better product on the field. He is a game
Speaker 5: changing coach. He has been that way everywhere he has gone.
Speaker 5: What he does is drive the people that he works
Speaker 5: for crazy, and that's when he ends up, you know,
Speaker 5: burning out his welcome. But he will have this team
Speaker 5: ready to be very competitive and be a contender in
Speaker 5: the AFC very very quickly. When you were asking win total,
Speaker 5: my first instinct was nine, and you're saying ten. I
Speaker 5: could see it at ten because bookmakers might feel like
Speaker 5: they can take advantage of the public and set it
Speaker 5: a little bit higher because they can say, all right,
Speaker 5: Jim Harbaugh is getting so much attention, we know they're
Speaker 5: going to want to bet the over no matter what
Speaker 5: it is. So let's set it at ten and let's
Speaker 5: see what we can sort of get in terms of
Speaker 5: some soccer money. But I would not bet against Jim Harbaugh.
Speaker 5: I love the guy, love the guy as a coach.
Speaker 5: I think he's amazing.
Speaker 1: So the public could do very well if Detroit wins.
Speaker 1: But the public had a very good year betting. I
Speaker 1: want to circle back to one of my theories on this,
Speaker 1: because I had a very good year betting, and it
Speaker 1: took me about four weeks to figure it out. But
Speaker 1: I was overthinking the room. And I've done this in
Speaker 1: the AFC playoffs where I'm five and zo basically picking
Speaker 1: the best quarterback. I took Stroud over Flacco. The Sharps
Speaker 1: like Flacco, and I'm taking golf to cover against Purdy.
Speaker 1: In fact, I took Love over Purdy and he outplayed them.
Speaker 1: Is that is do you believe now on a macro
Speaker 1: level that some I mean, you'll tweak everything you do
Speaker 1: because you're a professional gambler. But there is a dynamic
Speaker 1: now that has to be considered. The young quarterbacks that
Speaker 1: come in, if they've got two years starting and all
Speaker 1: those camps and the new culture, it's a cottage industry quarterback.
Speaker 1: They're better, faster, the coaching's better, and increasingly there's more
Speaker 1: offensive coaches, and that the best quarterback. It's hard, harder
Speaker 1: than it's ever been to bed against them because I
Speaker 1: find myself a default. In fact, a prime example, I
Speaker 1: took Kyler Murray several times. I didn't think Arizona was better,
Speaker 1: but like against Philadelphia, I'm like, Jalen's struggling. He may
Speaker 1: be better than Kyler, but Kyler's healthy, rested. I'm taking Kyler.
Speaker 1: Will you tweak over the course of a season seeing
Speaker 1: these trends which appear to be substantial, It may only
Speaker 1: be a half point to a point. But I one
Speaker 1: of the teams I didn't bet this year that a
Speaker 1: lot of people did was the Colts because I just
Speaker 1: couldn't buy into Gardner Minshew as much as I like
Speaker 1: Shane Steiken. Your take away sort of my my rambling
Speaker 1: here about this changing. It feels like the league is
Speaker 1: slightly changing for betting.
Speaker 5: So there's there's three different things that I want to
Speaker 5: that I want to pick out of that number one
Speaker 5: great year for the public favorites were winning at an
Speaker 5: unprecedented clip. And if you're like me and you like
Speaker 5: to play underdogs, and you find value in the underdogs,
Speaker 5: and when you model these things, you're playing on the
Speaker 5: idea that bookmakers are going to overvalue favorites because that's
Speaker 5: where they can expect the public to come in. So
Speaker 5: they're going to give you an advantage. This year, it
Speaker 5: didn't matter as much, right, So that's number one. Do
Speaker 5: I think that's a trend? Do I think that there
Speaker 5: is going to be regression for that? My guess is
Speaker 5: there will be a regression. There are some things that
Speaker 5: are irrefutable when it comes to betting. Regression is irrefutable,
Speaker 5: right Number one. Number two the quarterbacks betting, And we've
Speaker 5: talked about this a lot this week on my podcast
Speaker 5: because the Chiefs and the Ravens are a perfect example
Speaker 5: of trying to figure out when you are betting, how
Speaker 5: to ride the wave and then get off the wave
Speaker 5: before it crests. Historically, you look at Lamar Jackson terrible
Speaker 5: as a favorite of more than three and a half
Speaker 5: or more, Patrick Mahomes amazing as an underdog of three
Speaker 5: or any number. Right, So last week we were betting
Speaker 5: on the Texans because we felt like Lamar Jackson hasn't
Speaker 5: proven it yet. We were betting on the Chiefs because
Speaker 5: we felt like we were betting against the Chiefs because
Speaker 5: we felt like at two and a half, the Bills
Speaker 5: were the right side and Patrick Mahomes' time has passed
Speaker 5: because this team isn't as good. Missed on both counts
Speaker 5: because the wave went one way and we were expecting
Speaker 5: you could to do a different way with the Ravens,
Speaker 5: and the wave went one way and we were expecting
Speaker 5: it to stay the same with the Chiefs. And so
Speaker 5: this week trying to thread that needle. Are we betting
Speaker 5: on Lamar Jackson? Do we think he's over the hump
Speaker 5: on the stressful situations and choking in the playoffs? Are
Speaker 5: we betting on Patrick Mahomes Because what we've seen out
Speaker 5: of him, no matter what his team has been, has
Speaker 5: been so good so often. That is the biggest challenge,
Speaker 5: and adjusting that it's really really hard, and this is
Speaker 5: a game where you sort of measure it.
Speaker 1: The reason I'm taking Lamar over Mahomes, I consider Mahomes better,
Speaker 1: but as I told you circumstantially with Kyler Murray, I
Speaker 1: believe Lamar is at home with better protection and significantly
Speaker 1: better weapons. So it's not just who's better circumstances, whether
Speaker 1: where's the game, what are your weapons? I think with
Speaker 1: Marlon Humphreys coming back taking on Rashi Rice. You're not
Speaker 1: going to run much on Baltimore. I think Mahomes is
Speaker 1: going to be very frustrated in this game at times.
Speaker 1: And I think Lamar. I think Jay Flowers Mark Andrews
Speaker 1: back he Zay Flowers has been I mean just a
Speaker 1: seminole change in his career. I mean Lamar has He's
Speaker 1: got his you know, Stafford Is Cooper Cup, He's got
Speaker 1: his safety valve. He never had one. It was a
Speaker 1: tight end. So in that instance, I like Lamar because
Speaker 1: I think he'll be the better quarterback in this game.
Speaker 1: I think Goff will have better protection, better protection, and
Speaker 1: I'm betting that Debo doesn't play much, so that GoF
Speaker 1: will be the better quarterback in this game. May not win,
Speaker 1: but I don't think you're getting forty eight snaps from Deebo.
Speaker 1: I think you're getting eighteen. And therefore, I like the
Speaker 1: weaponry of amor On Saint Brown, Laporta, Gibbs, Montgomery, and
Speaker 1: he'll have better protection. So in this instance, I believe
Speaker 1: I am taking, well, Goff is better than Purty is
Speaker 1: a natural thrower. I'm taking the better quarterback circumstantially, And
Speaker 1: what he's surrounded by So that's why I'm taking my pick.
Speaker 1: So again this is the classic. I know that Malms
Speaker 1: is better than Lamar. I don't think he's got great
Speaker 1: protection this year. Now he's not getting sacked much because
Speaker 1: he's very nimble. This Baltimore front is this is the
Speaker 1: best linebacking crew in football. It's this front seven is
Speaker 1: really athletic and really twitchy for big athletes.
Speaker 2: And I think he's going to be under some dress.
Speaker 5: So to your point about the quarterbacks, it's a little
Speaker 5: bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, yes, because the better
Speaker 5: quarterback is almost always on the better team. And so
Speaker 5: if you want to bet on the better quarterback, they're
Speaker 5: almost always going to be on the favorite. And this
Speaker 5: year the favorites were winning at a larger clip than
Speaker 5: they ever have before. So the real test to your theory,
Speaker 5: and this is what's interesting about betting, is you don't
Speaker 5: bet for the week. You bet for your life, right,
Speaker 5: and how did you do this year? How did you
Speaker 5: do the next year? How do you do the year
Speaker 5: after that? Does that trend continue to hold? It's why
Speaker 5: trends can be an interesting compliment to anything you're doing.
Speaker 5: When you're talking about betting. We're talking about what's happening
Speaker 5: on the field. That's really important. A trend is a
Speaker 5: good compliment to anything you're thinking about in the field.
Speaker 5: It's not the reason you make the bet. So well
Speaker 5: the Colin Cowherd good quarterback theory hold up next year.
Speaker 5: That's when we start to know if that's really something
Speaker 5: that is sustainable. As for the game, I think what
Speaker 5: you're saying about the Chiefs offensive line is critical. I
Speaker 5: think the middle of the field for the Chiefs in
Speaker 5: this game against the Ravens defense is critical. The Chiefs
Speaker 5: are not an explosive offense at all. If Marlin Humphrey
Speaker 5: is back like you say, and he is locking up
Speaker 5: or sheet rice, which is what the expectation is. The
Speaker 5: Ravens are not the Bills who are starting Aj Klein.
Speaker 5: They are not the Dolphins who are decimated at every
Speaker 5: level of their defense. They are Patrick Queen, they are
Speaker 5: Rokwan Smith defending the middle of the field, who can
Speaker 5: do wonders when they're patrolling that middle of the field.
Speaker 5: And as we said before, Joe Toney offensive guard for
Speaker 5: the Chiefs and not going to be playing that also
Speaker 5: will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to step up
Speaker 5: into the pocket. There's nothing scarier for a quarterback than
Speaker 5: not being able to step up right. They like to
Speaker 5: roll out, They like to be able to step up
Speaker 5: against pressure that is coming in from the edges. I
Speaker 5: think that's going to be a real handicap for Patrick
Speaker 5: Mahomes in this game. So I completely agree with your
Speaker 5: theory on why you like the Ravens and why Lamar
Speaker 5: could be the better quarterback in this game. That's why
Speaker 5: the Sharps believe it too.
Speaker 3: The volume.
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