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Speaker 1: The volume this week on Prime Cuts, Chad Milman, Sharper Square,

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Speaker 1: Nick right on what Else, Andy Reid, Mahomes and the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs in my top takes of the week. It is official.

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Speaker 1: They worked late last night and early this morning. Agents

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Speaker 1: involved hurdles finally crossed and eclipsed. Jim Harbaugh is the

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Speaker 1: coach of the LA Chargers. It is easily the best

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Speaker 1: current job available in the NFL because you have Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 1: Now I talked about this recently. Next year, Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, dak Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, Derek

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Speaker 1: Carr potentially could all need a coach this year seven

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Speaker 1: eight openings. One elite quarterback Justin Herbert, who again as

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Speaker 1: a rookie with the thirty six thirty second ranked offensive

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Speaker 1: line with the Chargers. His rookie year, he broke all

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Speaker 1: the touchdown records for a quarterback. So since then he

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Speaker 1: has been under coached and undersupported. This was the right choice.

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Speaker 1: It is the best current job available and you very rarely,

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Speaker 1: I mean, when's the last candidate that eventually became a

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Speaker 1: coach that was a sure thing. I mean, Matt Lafleur

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Speaker 1: was respected as a coordinator. There was no sure thing

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Speaker 1: replacing Mike McCarthy. I mean Mike McCarthy going to the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: He had a Super Bowl, but that was not a

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Speaker 1: sure thing. Dealing with Jerry Jones and it hasn't been

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Speaker 1: a sure thing. Jim Harbaugh is about as sure thing

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Speaker 1: as you get. I mean, even Belichick if he went

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Speaker 1: to Atlanta tomorrow, there's no sure thing. I have a quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Rabel's a great coach, goes to Washington, what if they

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Speaker 1: picked the wrong quarterback. This is a sure thing. Harbaugh's

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Speaker 1: worked everywhere and immediately. And this is not a terribly

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Speaker 1: heavy lift. Sean Payton at Denver's a big lift. This

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Speaker 1: is they have some cap issues and they also have,

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the top picks, which they don't

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Speaker 1: need a quarterback or a left tackle or an edge rusher.

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Speaker 1: And that's what is all over the top twenty picks

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Speaker 1: in this draft. They could use a tight end. Brock

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Speaker 1: Bowers will be available to them. They could probably move

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Speaker 1: down two or three spots and still land brock Bowers

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Speaker 1: and get a second or a third round pick. What

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Speaker 1: they need to do is hit on some draft picks

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Speaker 1: Beyond the first round. It's a very strong draft, So

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Speaker 1: the first fifteen to eighteen picks are really good players.

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Speaker 1: After that, you know, the percentages go down. But Harbaugh's

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Speaker 1: ability to know personnel because of the last decade at

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Speaker 1: Michigan is going to be incredibly beneficial. This is not

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Speaker 1: a big lift that you've got to move off. Probably

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Speaker 1: a Khalil Mack. You get more for Bosa, but they'll

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Speaker 1: probably he's a little fragile, but they'll probably keep Bosa.

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Speaker 1: I would guess move off Khalil Mack. You know they

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Speaker 1: may move off at Derwin James. Not sure what they

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Speaker 1: do with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams. But what they need

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Speaker 1: they have what the draft is furnishing at the very top,

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Speaker 1: so they have the ability to move down several spots

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Speaker 1: and accumulate more picks, and Harball will crush it with

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Speaker 1: his picks. The other thing is they don't really have

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Speaker 1: a situation where Dean Spanos is not a medaler. He's

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Speaker 1: really not. Now you could argue in San Diego they

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Speaker 1: had a small staff, they didn't spend enough money. You

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Speaker 1: can argue they were cheap. I don't view them similarly

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Speaker 1: in Los Angeles and he's not a medaler. There's Spanos.

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Speaker 1: Kids are in the building. But again on the operational side,

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Speaker 1: Tom Telesco had free reign to do what he wanted

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Speaker 1: to do. He got Tom's good friend, never bad mount.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers loved his job. Wishes he wouldn't have missed

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Speaker 1: on J. C. Jackson, but he furnished Harball with a

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Speaker 1: lot of good players, and now they've got a really

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Speaker 1: good pick. So this is really a perfect situation and

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Speaker 1: a very easy lift hit on some draft picks. This

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Speaker 1: is not Tennessee or Atlanta or Washington or New England

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Speaker 1: or even that's we had a quarterback, but a massive

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Speaker 1: cap hit. Herbert still a year away from being a

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Speaker 1: punitive cap hit. They are about forty five million over.

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Speaker 1: But again, you can circumvent some of that stuff by

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Speaker 1: hitting on draft picks and moving out a couple of players.

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Speaker 1: I think Harbaugh is just very unique personality. I've said

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Speaker 1: this before both harba as. You can't pigeonhole John Harbaugh

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Speaker 1: knows offense. Jim Harbaugh knows defense. When Harbaugh was in

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, they had four top ten defenses with the

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Speaker 1: Niners no top ten offenses. They were a mess. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they'd had a winning season in eight years

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Speaker 1: previous to Harbaugh, and he turned that thing around in

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Speaker 1: year one Michigan, year one Stanford. I think took a

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Speaker 1: couple of years, but he had some upset wins in

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Speaker 1: the first year. So this is not a big lift. Boy,

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Speaker 1: what a division. Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh. Those

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Speaker 1: are really really good football coaches. But the thing about

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Speaker 1: the Chargers is some businesses just need a new boss.

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Speaker 1: Some need a culture changer. Washington command need a culture

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Speaker 1: changer and a coach. The Chargers need a culture changer

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Speaker 1: and a coach. I think Atlanta just needs a coach.

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Speaker 1: I think they have a good owner, Rich McKay, really

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Speaker 1: nice pieces. Offensively, they just need a quarterback in the

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Speaker 1: right coach. I don't think they're a lousy culture. Washington

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Speaker 1: and the Chargers just too many missteps. The Staly thing

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Speaker 1: was a bit of a mess. It just feels like

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Speaker 1: they have to kind of right this ship a strong.

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Speaker 1: This La markets crowded, man, it's a crowded market. People

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Speaker 1: get distracted if you're not good. People have options. The

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Speaker 1: Beats the Mountains. Vegas is a forty minute flight away, Rams, Dodgers, USC, UCLA, Clippers, Lakers.

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Speaker 1: It's distracted. You got to win, and so I think

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Speaker 1: Carbo is gonna win his first year. I think he's

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Speaker 1: gonna win a lot. I think they're going to be

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Speaker 1: a high end playoff team immediately, and I can't wait

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Speaker 1: for it. Falcons did not hire Bill Belichick, who I thought,

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Speaker 1: if he wanted personnel control, was one of the weaker candidates.

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Speaker 1: I'm not interested in that. They hired Raey Morris. So

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Speaker 1: Raheem was a coach and Tampa didn't work. Was a

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Speaker 1: great assistant after Brandon Staley left for the Rams, became

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Speaker 1: mcveigh's best friend on the staff and did very, very

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Speaker 1: well with a really young defense. Morris is one of

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Speaker 1: those guys like Demiko Ryans or Sean McVay. Very impressive

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Speaker 1: in person, kind of you know, just a guy, eye contact,

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Speaker 1: really smart point of view. So Raheem interviews very well.

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Speaker 1: I've been told that numerous occasions. Probably I would have

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Speaker 1: gone after maybe a Mike Rabel again, defensive coach. They

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Speaker 1: don't have a quarterback. But I think this is what

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Speaker 1: Belichick is falling into, is that it's really funny that

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Speaker 1: Bill doesn't really have any vulnerability, Like Bill's gonna do

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Speaker 1: what Bill wants to do. That's why he's got his

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Speaker 1: kids on the staff, and he hires coaches who are

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Speaker 1: He had a very weak staff, fired guys in New England.

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Speaker 1: So you know, Bill wants more control than Arthur Blank

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Speaker 1: and Rich McKay are willing to give. And had Bill

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Speaker 1: read the room, he would have known that Arthur Blank

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Speaker 1: has never hired a big time head coach. He's always

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Speaker 1: given it to up and coming coaches who don't feel

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Speaker 1: like they have to own the room. Blank's a brilliant businessman.

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Speaker 1: Rich McKay is excellent with operations and certainly knows talent.

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Speaker 1: Terry Fontineau from the Saints is a smart guy that's

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Speaker 1: well thought of around the league. I mean he's not

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Speaker 1: you know, we don't look at him quite as a

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Speaker 1: less Sneed maybe yet, or a Mickey Loomis in New

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Speaker 1: Orleans yet, or a Howie Roseman or a Brett Veach.

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Speaker 1: But he is well thought of. But I think Belichick

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Speaker 1: the thing that worries you if you're Atlanta. He's a

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Speaker 1: milestone guy. Is he really care about Atlanta? Never? Never, never, coached, really,

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Speaker 1: I mean head coach in Cleveland, then in New England.

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Speaker 1: I didn't know much about the NFC South. He has

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Speaker 1: drafted fifteen quarterbacks, one star Brady, one starter Garoppolo, two

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Speaker 1: to three capable backups, and ten misses. So I think

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Speaker 1: Bill was going up against recent history in Atlanta, where

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Speaker 1: they're going to take a Dan Quinn, They're going to

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Speaker 1: take a Raheem Morris, They're going to take a young,

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Speaker 1: up and coming assistant that's not going to need to

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Speaker 1: dominate personnel. And I'll be honest with you, the Seahawks'

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Speaker 1: last two drafts have been much stronger when John Snyder

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Speaker 1: was empowered by ownership and controlled the drafts. Pete in

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Speaker 1: a vacuum in Seattle when Paul Allen died, had a

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Speaker 1: lot of power. It frustrated John Snyder, who went and

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Speaker 1: sought the Detroit Lions job, got a raised. They brought

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Speaker 1: him back to Seattle, and there were some assurances that

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Speaker 1: he would have more control than the draft. I have

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Speaker 1: it on two different sources who I trust implicitly is

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Speaker 1: that Pete would sometimes have a very strong opinion and

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Speaker 1: it would sway the Seahawks rafts, and for years in

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Speaker 1: a year. I was told this for years by people

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Speaker 1: in the league. I respected that Seahawks drafts were unpredictable. Now,

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Speaker 1: Pete's were very good when he came out out of

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Speaker 1: college out of USC at a two or three year

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Speaker 1: run where they're excellent. But like most pro coaches, he's

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Speaker 1: not sitting around watching college football all Saturday. He's looking

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Speaker 1: at NFL stuff, in at NFL personnel, in film. And

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Speaker 1: I thought Seattle's drafts got much better in the last

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Speaker 1: couple of years when John Snyder exerted more power. I

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Speaker 1: think Belichick's last seven drafts have mostly been absolutely abysmal. Why,

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Speaker 1: once again, I have it sourced for multiple people that

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Speaker 1: as he started stacking rings in net worth and power,

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Speaker 1: he was more difficult for Brady to deal with. And

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Speaker 1: he told mid January the draft department, the scouts. I

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Speaker 1: got it from here. It's hard to find any hits

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Speaker 1: in the last seven drafts. On the offensive side, They've

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Speaker 1: had two Pro Bowlers, one's a punter. So I don't

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Speaker 1: think coach. I remember when Mike Home was in Seattle

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Speaker 1: years ago, great coach. He had a little bit too

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Speaker 1: much power. When he first started in Seattle, he struggled

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Speaker 1: with a couple of early drafts. You're asking drafting is

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Speaker 1: hard enough for great jams. Howie Roseman has had huge whiffs,

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Speaker 1: and how he's brilliant and completely dedicated. So the idea

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Speaker 1: that Bill Belichick, any of these coaches won over fifty

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Speaker 1: percent power. John Gruden, by the way, with the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: had the final say with Mike Mayock. I know that

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Speaker 1: because it's sourced. Go look at the Raiders first round picks.

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Speaker 1: In later rounds, Gruden would let Mayock have more control.

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Speaker 1: But in that first round, there's first second round. John

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Speaker 1: thought he was the television John Gruden and exerted too

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Speaker 1: much power and control and they had multiple major whiffs. Gruden,

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, Mike Holmgren. Those are just four examples.

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Speaker 1: The best way to do it is less Snead and

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Speaker 1: the Rams and Sean McVay where McVeigh has absolute say,

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Speaker 1: but they really work collaboratively. They really work together very

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Speaker 1: very well. Sean, if he does have the final say,

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Speaker 1: is very respectful about it. But they're really committed to

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Speaker 1: the process from beginning to end. And last year they

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Speaker 1: had a sensational draft outside of Stetson Bennett, who had

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Speaker 1: struggled I think with some things personally, and they're not

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Speaker 1: sure if that's going to work. He was a fourth

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Speaker 1: round pick, but they nailed their second round pick, two thirds,

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Speaker 1: multiple fifths. It was a great draft for them. Even

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Speaker 1: picked up some guys late in the sixth and seventh round.

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Speaker 1: So you know Belichick has got to read the room.

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Speaker 1: His drafting record is atrocious. And though Raheem Morris I

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Speaker 1: probably would have gone to the offensive side, they just

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Speaker 1: had an offensive coach and it didn't work. So there

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Speaker 1: is a history in this league. Demiko Ryans is the latest.

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Speaker 1: If you have a top defensive coach and a star

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Speaker 1: quarterback in CJ. Stroud certainly emerged looks like a star,

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Speaker 1: top six to seven quarterback, you can hoist trophies. I

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Speaker 1: don't think defensive coaches are as good with marginal quarterback talent.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're good when they have a disruption

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Speaker 1: at quarterback. A backup like a Gardner Minshew or a

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Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. Shane Stikeen and Kevin Stefanski hit it out

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Speaker 1: of the park. But if you have a Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: or a Josh Allen or a CJ. Stroud or Brady

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Speaker 1: in his prime or Big Ben in his prime. I'm

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Speaker 1: okay with defensive coaches. So if they nail, if they

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Speaker 1: draft the third or the fourth quarterback and nail it,

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Speaker 1: rahe Morris will be a fine coach. If they draft

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Speaker 1: It is a weak division. But Belichick didn't get it.

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Speaker 1: He didn't get the Chargers. Reportedly, Ben Johnson is a

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Speaker 1: So and when you get older, Belichick, a year off

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Speaker 1: and Out. I thought, if Buffalo won, they were in

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Speaker 1: big trouble against Baltimore, that two healthy linebackers go into

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Speaker 1: I think Kansas City. So the line is Baltimore minus three.

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Speaker 1: I thought Kansas City has a has a real shot

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Speaker 1: to win that game. I felt like Buffalo they were

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Speaker 1: just falling part physically, and I think that thing that's

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Speaker 1: frustrating if you're a Bills fan is that it just

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Speaker 1: becomes so Josh Allen dependent. You can't count on the defense,

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Speaker 1: you can't count on health. Now, you can't count on

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Speaker 1: the kicker McDermott's fake punt, I can't count on the coach.

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Speaker 1: It just always feels like Josh is puts the cape

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Speaker 1: on and when they lose, you're like, he's not the issue,

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Speaker 1: and it just feels like, you know, in previous years,

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Speaker 1: there was no run game. Now they have a run game.

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Speaker 1: In previous years, there was weakness in the conference. It's

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Speaker 1: it's this is this was the year for Buffalo. John

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Speaker 1: Kansas City doesn't have a number two receiver. They have

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Speaker 1: some undependable hardman Tony some some players. Now Tony didn't

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Speaker 1: play today, right, So, but they have these players all

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Speaker 1: year long, and you saw it today with a fumble

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Speaker 1: at the goal line, Kansas City opens the door to

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Speaker 1: beat them multiple times a game now they never did

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Speaker 1: in the previous five years. And Buffalo at home still

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Speaker 1: can't put them away.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, this is the worst loss.

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Speaker 3: I just don't see how you shake this if you're

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Speaker 3: that franchise, because, like you said, you're playing this team

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Speaker 3: that kind of comes limping in relative to what they've been.

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Speaker 3: Who made big play after big play today was Valdez Scantling.

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Speaker 3: He hasn't kind of cold all season long. He had

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Speaker 3: multiple huge catches. Yeah, I think when you're a player

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Speaker 3: or two away like Buffalo has been, like the forty

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Speaker 3: nine ers have been, like the Chiefs, and you buy

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Speaker 3: a big free agent, you need that guy to hit.

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Speaker 2: So look at the forty nine ers, right, they.

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Speaker 3: Get Tarvarius Warden Hargrave. Immediately those guys are Pro Bowlers.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs they signed Justin Reid a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 3: you feel them all over the field. They went all

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Speaker 3: in on von Miller. Now he tore his ACL but

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Speaker 3: it was an older player and that was a disaster.

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Speaker 3: And when you are paying a lot of guys money

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Speaker 3: and you go all in on one player, then he

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Speaker 3: gets injured and he's clearly a shell of himself. Now

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Speaker 3: you feel that, like, where are their impact players beside?

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Speaker 3: Like you said, they're built like a basketball team right now,

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Speaker 3: they have a superstar player and when he's you know,

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Speaker 3: incredible like he was today making plays left and right,

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Speaker 3: but your margin frer is still so tiny. And like

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Speaker 3: you said, they had guys dropping like flies. The injuries

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Speaker 3: were starting to mount up, and they some of those

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Speaker 3: guys that got hurt came back in the game. You're like,

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Speaker 3: thank god, I don't know who he would have thrown to,

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Speaker 3: but man to miss that kick, I mean, this is

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Speaker 3: a franchise that does feel a little snake bitten. And

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Speaker 3: who knows. I mean, I listen Sean McDermott going forward

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Speaker 3: on that punt. They got bailed out obviously by the

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Speaker 3: fumble a couple of plays later, but that was that

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Speaker 3: was a questionable move. It really well, you're playing a

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Speaker 3: team that's offense is the entire season has struggled, like

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Speaker 3: you just punt and I get your punters hurt. That

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Speaker 3: was a huge part of this game, right there, punters hurt.

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Speaker 3: He could barely punt, so to lose that game at

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Speaker 3: home as the favor, that's something it's hard to shake.

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Speaker 1: Nick right, I want to throw this at I thought

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Speaker 1: about this. I really do think Andy Reid has an

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Speaker 1: argument as in that Bill Walsh vein is. I think

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Speaker 1: he really is one of the three or four seminal

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Speaker 1: great coaches in my lifetime. He's aged so grace fully

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Speaker 1: in terms of his intellect, and he takes it's almost

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Speaker 1: a joyful experience. He'll he'll text me in the off

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Speaker 1: season plays He'll go, He'll send me a piece of video.

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Speaker 1: He goes, I'm running this. I'm not telling you when,

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Speaker 1: but I'm running it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's like a kid.

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Speaker 1: So nobody's ever of all the thirty for thirties that

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Speaker 1: haven't been made, the one I think I've told you

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Speaker 1: this before that's never been made that I would love

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Speaker 1: to see it. Michael Jordan the Wizard years. What a

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Speaker 1: disaster it was. The players hated him. Nobody's ever made it.

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Speaker 1: People forget what a mess it was. But I imagine

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Speaker 1: Jordan has the ability to stop it or talk about it,

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Speaker 1: and others won't bad mouth him. But those years disappear

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Speaker 1: into the ether. Ore Em was a band that I loved,

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Speaker 1: and then they went off the rails in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: and started sounding different, and I never listened to him again.

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Speaker 1: But I still love r Em. I don't hold it

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Speaker 1: against him. The greatest actors have been in terrible movies.

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Speaker 1: Marlon Brando was in you know, six or seven classics

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Speaker 1: and six or seven awful movies. It's never held against him.

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Speaker 1: Yet with Belichick, I cannot unsee the last four years

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Speaker 1: in New England. He is completely tone deaf. He can't

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Speaker 1: draft he it's as if he has no understanding of offense.

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Speaker 1: He can't draft it, he can't develop it, he can't

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Speaker 1: hire it, and it really it's making. I can't get

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Speaker 1: rid of it. I can get rid of Jordan bad movies.

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Speaker 1: I don't punish actors, directors, stars. I can't unsee what

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Speaker 1: I've seen from Belichick in four years, so I can't

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Speaker 1: keep him in the Walsh Vein and I'm and if

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Speaker 1: Andy reels off a couple more so that.

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Speaker 4: This said something you said. You said this for the

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Speaker 4: first time before the Chiefs won last year. I remembered

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Speaker 4: it was before it was It was when it looked

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Speaker 4: like they really could but they hadn't yet won. I

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Speaker 4: think it was maybe the week leading up to the

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl, but you started to I think kind of

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Speaker 4: soft launch the idea of could Andy Reid become the

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Speaker 4: greatest coach of all time? And when you first said it,

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Speaker 4: I think everyone's immediate reaction is that's ridiculous, like no,

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Speaker 4: But what I don't think people recognize it, And I'm

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Speaker 4: just gonna pull it up real quick NFL Head Coaches

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Speaker 4: Wins Wiki. I don't think people understand where he is

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Speaker 4: right now on the wins list because it is way

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Speaker 4: higher than you think. So on he has regular season

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Speaker 4: and postseason combined, so he's twenty four plus two fifty eight,

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Speaker 4: so he is at two eighty two total wins. He

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Speaker 4: is fourth all time on that list. All right, He

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Speaker 4: is probably not gonna catch Bill, but he is clo

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Speaker 4: he has got a real chance of finishing third all

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Speaker 4: time and passing George hallis right on just playoff wins,

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Speaker 4: he could absolutely catch Bill Bill's it thirty one?

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Speaker 2: Andy is it twenty four? Isn't that incredible? That's it?

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Speaker 4: It doesn't it's it's incredible. And so it's like, wait

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Speaker 4: a minute. Then the other thing, because I had this

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Speaker 4: graphic for first things. First we never used it, but

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Speaker 4: it was Pete Carroll, who's obviously in a different class.

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Speaker 4: But Pete Carroll's record with Russell Wilson without Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 4: and it's like, really really really pardon me, really really good,

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Speaker 4: not good at all. Belichick with Brady without Brady, unbelievable,

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Speaker 4: and then below five hundred Andy with Mahomes without Mahomes

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Speaker 4: and it's unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: And then it's really damn good. Yes, so it is.

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Speaker 4: And Yep, Donovan McNabb was good, not great, He was good.

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Speaker 4: Mike Vick post prison what I love. Michael was good,

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Speaker 4: not He had one great year. But how much of

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Speaker 4: that was because of Andy?

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Speaker 2: Was that? You know what I mean? Andy put his

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Speaker 2: arms around him.

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Speaker 1: Andy helped all Michael Vick acknowledges it was because of him.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely.

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Speaker 4: Alex Smith the only section of his career that was

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Speaker 4: highly successful was with Andy.

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Speaker 2: So it's not that he had nobody's at quarterback.

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Speaker 4: I'm not saying that, but he was able to win divisions,

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Speaker 4: win playoff games, go to conference championships, and go to

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Speaker 4: a super Bowl without.

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Speaker 2: A Hall of Fame quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Did all of that, and then the moment he got

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Speaker 4: the Hall of Fame quarterback instantly it was the most

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Speaker 4: prolific offense in the history of the league that first year. Yes,

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Speaker 4: and so there is something to be set and his dexterity.

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Speaker 1: It's like the reason we look at Prince as one

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Speaker 1: of the great musicians. His ability to i mean like

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Speaker 1: classically play multiple instruments. That's why he separates from other

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Speaker 1: even great performers. His dexterity and he's ability conference division

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Speaker 1: quarterback to win everywhere. There is no way to separate

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Speaker 1: Belichick's career other than Brady years non Brady years, and

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Speaker 1: those are increasingly not just mediocre, they're getting to be embarrassing,

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Speaker 1: well out of touch.

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Speaker 4: Right and so and the other part of it that

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Speaker 4: is just the truth of it, and every Some people

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Speaker 4: don't like when someone makes this point or I make

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Speaker 4: this point, but the opposite of it, Like sometimes the

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Speaker 4: best way to understand if an argument is a legitimate

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Speaker 4: one is imagine if the exact opposite happened, what your.

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Speaker 2: Feelings would be, Oh, that's good.

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Speaker 4: If Tom Brady went to Tampa and they were three

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Speaker 4: and thirteen and the next year four and twelve and

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Speaker 4: then he retired, would that be a plus or a

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Speaker 4: minus for Bill's resume that it would obviously be a plus.

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Speaker 4: Now it would be a little different because he was

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Speaker 4: Older'd be like, ah, he got old, but it would

425
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 4: be a plus. It'd be like, hey, Tom left there.

426
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 4: They had two years prior won the super Bowl. The

427
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 4: previous year they had won eleven twelve games and been

428
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 4: in the playoffs, and then immediately fell you know what

429
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 4: I mean, fell apart. Instead, he left and immediately won

430
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 4: the super Bowl and the next year almost won League

431
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 4: MVP and was in Round two of the super Bowl

432
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 4: in a close in a tie game with a minute left,

433
00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 4: so or in round two of.

434
00:24:59,000 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: The playoffs, I should say.

435
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 4: So that obviously hurts Bill a bit. Maybe it's not fair,

436
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 4: but it is what it is. That Tom was able

437
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 4: to leave and have the highest success one can have

438
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 4: individually and team wise, won a super Bowl, came in

439
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:23,159
Speaker 4: second in MVP voting. When Tom left Bill's team, it

440
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 4: went for mediocre to downright offal in a very short

441
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 4: period of time. And so that had That's a part

442
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 4: which is why I thought it was that it was

443
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 4: going to be so important for Bill to go coach

444
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 4: the Cowboys or the Eagles or the Bills where he

445
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 4: can then even the score to would agree because it

446
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 4: would then help Bill immensely. If the Cowboys haven't been

447
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 4: able to get over the hump for thirty years, he

448
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 4: gets there and they do, then it's like, oh, okay,

449
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 4: you know what I mean.

450
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 2: That was him.

451
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 4: He just had problems drafting players the last few years.

452
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 2: And so it is.

453
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 4: It is a at least an interesting.

454
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 2: Idea.

455
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 4: And here's the other thing that I would say, and

456
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 4: this is why I think the count the rings stuff

457
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 4: across sports. This is not a Lebron argument, but it

458
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 4: touches It can be so foolish.

459
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, they.

460
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: Count the rings.

461
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 4: Thing demands that we simply say, both Brady and Belichick

462
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 4: are the greatest of all time, but those rings are

463
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 4: so you understand what I mean, Like they both had

464
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 4: Brady now a seven. But let's just say Brady retired

465
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 4: right when the Patriots era ended, that he retired, and

466
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 4: the count the rings thing demands that Phil and Michael

467
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 4: and that these things, but that then it almost creates

468
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 4: an extra ring. If I know, I'm not describing this properly,

469
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 4: but the Brady and Belichick's rings are intertwined. Yet they

470
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 4: both get credit when compared to other quarterbacks or other coaches.

471
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 4: There's no shared credit. And so if we're just to

472
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 4: encount the rings, then it has to be that, you

473
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 4: know what I mean, they're both the greatest of all time,

474
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 4: when I don't really feel that.

475
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 1: Way, all right, Chad Millman, CEEO Action Network Sharper Square,

476
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 1: All odds provided by DraftKings. So had I bet last

477
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: week I would have gone three and one. I had

478
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: the bills, shame on me, everything else, everything else, I

479
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: was on the right side.

480
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 5: Come on, come on, no, no, no, no, no, you don't.

481
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 5: You don't get credit for had I bet you either

482
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 5: did or you didn't. Well say, there is no try,

483
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 5: there is do or do not. You didn't do anything

484
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 5: last week. You watched some football and maybe you would

485
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 5: write about what you were thinking.

486
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 1: Okay, so this week I love the pick. I think

487
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: the lines are wrong this week. First of all, we

488
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 1: are overvaluing the Chiefs because They've played a completely decimated

489
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 1: Miami defense in minus twenty seven degrees with a quarterback

490
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 1: that can't throw the ball deep, and then they play

491
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 1: an absolutely ravaged Bills defense missing six starters. So we're

492
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: overvaluing who they are. Baltimore is a team that wrecked

493
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: San Francisco, dominated Miami, destroyed Detroit. You know my favorite

494
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: number in this business, minus four.

495
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 2: I think the Ravens.

496
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: Role Mahomes is hard to blow out, but I don't

497
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 1: think they'll have success running it with Pacheco. Here comes

498
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: Marlon Humphrey back to guard Rashid Rice. I think the

499
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 1: Ravens are one of the best playoff bets, believe it

500
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: or not. At minus four, Sharper square.

501
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 5: So sharp that if you end up not betting it

502
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 5: and then just thinking about betting it, doing yourself a disservice.

503
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 5: It was sharp when it was minus three last Sunday,

504
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 5: it was sharp when it was three and a half.

505
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: It's still sharp at four.

506
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 5: The wise guys love the Ravens in this game. It

507
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 5: is a scary, scary bet, not because of what the

508
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 5: Chiefs have done the past two weeks, and you're using

509
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 5: the right terminology. They're overvalued based on their season long results.

510
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 5: But it's still Patrick Mahomes Man, and it's still Patrick Mahomes,

511
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 5: who's nine one and one in his career as an underdog,

512
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 5: who's two and zero straight up in his career as

513
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 5: an underdog, who's eight and three straight up in his

514
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 5: career as an underdog. The reason why this bet is

515
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 5: scary is because the idea of betting against Patrick Mahomes

516
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 5: laid in the game and he is stepping up in

517
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 5: the pocket against a really good pass rush and you

518
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 5: don't know where the ball is going yet because you

519
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 5: can't see it on TV and who's on the other

520
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 5: end of it. You have no idea, but you're pretty

521
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 5: sure it's going to be completed, and you're pretty sure

522
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 5: it's going to be a long pass because someone was

523
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 5: in single coverage and some receiver is wide open.

524
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 1: That's the fear.

525
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: So you're right. Sharp's are on it. Sharps love it.

526
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 5: Defense is dominating for Baltimore, and their rush offense will

527
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 5: destroy the Chiefs rush defense. And the Chiefs, by the way,

528
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 5: missing Joe Toney, their offensive guard, who is one of

529
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 5: the highest rated pass blocking guards according to Pro Football Focus.

530
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 5: In every way the Ravens should destroy the Chiefs, except

531
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 5: the Chiefs have a cheek code and Patrick Mahomes. So

532
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 5: I will tell you what I've done, which is only

533
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 5: slightly less untoured and cowardly than claiming credit for Beth

534
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 5: you didn't make. I bet the Ravens minus two and

535
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 5: a half first half, all right, because I'm scared, because

536
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 5: I'm afraid of Patrick Mahomes. But every otherwise guy is

537
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 5: piling in on the Ravens, and there I agree with

538
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 5: you one hundred percent.

539
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 2: All right.

540
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: I like the Lions plus seven and a half. So

541
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: if you take I do this with big games. I

542
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: take the top ten players and then the top fifteen.

543
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: The Lions are stacked. I have eight seven Lions eight

544
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 1: players to seven for the Niners. Now, if you go

545
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 1: top five, McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams. But when you start

546
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: extrapolating from the fourth best player, and it's Pine Suel

547
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: and it's Hutcheson, and it's Amaran Saint Brown, and it's

548
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: Jared Goff's the better quarterback. The weather's not a factor.

549
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: We know this is a team that doesn't play well,

550
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: and windy or cold weather going to be sixty seven degrees.

551
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: It's going to be dry. There's going to be no wind.

552
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: Jared Goff played plenty of outdoor games in the Bay Are,

553
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: yet he's fine. This offensive line's better. The Niners offensive

554
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 1: line center right is actually one of the weak spots

555
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: on the team. Neither team has a great secondary. What

556
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: concerns me about San Francisco the names are bigger than

557
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: the production up front. Defensively, their rush has been hit

558
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: and miss over the last six seven weeks. Bosa absolutely,

559
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 1: Chase Young, meh, you're not getting the names right now.

560
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: It's like a hotel chain you went to when you

561
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 1: were a kid. You go about ten years later and

562
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 1: you're like, it's kind of an average hotel. The name's

563
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: bigger than the property, right You've seen that with golf courses, hotels.

564
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: I think right now I can't unsee the Ravens crushing

565
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: them or the Packers out playing them. I think Detroit

566
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: matches up, may not win. I think seven and a half.

567
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: I think the numbers should be closer to six five

568
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm taking the lion Sharper square.

569
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 5: So the wise guys have been on the Niners. It's

570
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 5: one of the reasons why this number is moving. In fact,

571
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 5: it's a really interesting stat Then the Lions are a

572
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 5: huge liability for the sports books this weekend, not because

573
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 5: there's so many people on the Lions. At plus seven

574
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 5: and a half, there's forty four percent of the money

575
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 5: according to our tracking on the Lions money line. Like

576
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 5: people are just piling on the Lions to win this

577
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 5: game out right, more than they like the Lions to

578
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 5: actually cover the spread. But the wise guys have been

579
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 5: on the Niners, and there's a couple factors in play.

580
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 5: You cannot discount how bad this Lion's secondary is. Right,

581
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 5: look at what they've given up to players like Nick

582
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 5: Mullins multiple four hundred or near four hundred yard games,

583
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield more than three to fifty, Matthew Stafford more

584
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 5: than three fifty.

585
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 2: Rock Party.

586
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 5: There should be no bashing of Brock Purty. All the

587
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 5: guy has done in a season and a half is

588
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 5: starting is lead his team to two different NFC title games,

589
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 5: lead the league in passing yards, and be as effective

590
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 5: and efficient as any quarterback Kyle Shannon's Shanahan has had

591
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 5: and he's the reason why he is closer to winning

592
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 5: a Super Bowl than he has ever been. This is

593
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 5: a much better team than the Lions across the board,

594
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 5: and there's a real big factor I think for the

595
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 5: Lions their offensive line. Jonah Jackson isn't going to be

596
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 5: playing in this game. When Jonah Jackson played this past

597
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 5: week against a heavy blitz from the Buccaneers, zero pressures

598
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 5: in any of his snaps, he goes out at the

599
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 5: end of the game seven pressures in eighteen snaps given

600
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 5: up by his replacement, Jared Goff. Getting pressure up the

601
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 5: middle when he cannot step up is not the same

602
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,720
Speaker 5: quarterback no matter what the conditions are. So whise guys

603
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 5: are back in the Niners. Here also the X factor,

604
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,240
Speaker 5: it's Deebo Samuel. Look when the Niners have Deebo Samuel

605
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 5: twelve and one this year, winning games by an average

606
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 5: of eighteen points per game. There's one game when they

607
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 5: did not win by double digits. That was Week two

608
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 5: on the road at the Rams A Division game they

609
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 5: only won by seven. Deebo is a complete game changer.

610
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 5: And I am checking Debo's availability because I already bet

611
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 5: the Niners minus six and a half. I am checking

612
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 5: his availability NonStop, and he's still fifty to fifty progress

613
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:21,959
Speaker 5: but in pain. He's a major major factor for this game.

614
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 5: So even without Deebo, the wise guys have been betting

615
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:28,919
Speaker 5: the Niners. With Deebo, I think you'll see this number skyrocket. Yeah.

616
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 1: By the way, he does get a break played on Saturday. Now,

617
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 1: this game's on Sunday, so you get another twenty four hours,

618
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 1: and we know with surgery or injuries, twenty four hours

619
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 1: is a long time. I want to ask you about

620
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh. So it was funny. I was in Los Angeles.

621
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 1: You know they call it the city of Angels. I've

622
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 1: heard that, yes, and Harball is no angel. But it

623
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 1: was NonStop, wall the wall coverage of Harball in Los Angeles,

624
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 1: the second biggest city in the country. And I said

625
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: to somebody that I know that's close to the Chargers,

626
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: I said, you guys probably made about six million dollars yesterday.

627
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, in coverage, it.

628
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: Was it was wall. It led every newscast. I mean,

629
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: it was the story in LA. And then the Chargers

630
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 1: have fifty one thousand season tickets. If they can get

631
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 1: to about fifty seven to five, which they could probably

632
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: sell the stadium out now with Herbert and Harbaugh, but

633
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 1: they don't want to because as a warm mother city,

634
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: they want the Denvers and Kansas cities to come in

635
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 1: and to be able to elevate the prices based on

636
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 1: how hot and how big the game is. So if

637
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 1: they get to like fifty seven fifty eight thousand season tickets,

638
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: that extra six thousand plus all the publicity you get,

639
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 1: you kind of pay for Harbaugh twenty million bucks a year.

640
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 1: So Harbaugh not that he's a bargain, but this feels

641
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: like seven of the twelve losses for the Chargers were

642
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 1: three or less significantly more than the league. So this

643
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: is not a rebuild like Houston. This is like a

644
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: five win team that could win eleven and it feels

645
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: totally reasonable. Where would you put the over under.

646
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 2: If you had to?

647
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,760
Speaker 1: If you I thought to myself, am I nuts?

648
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 2: It's ten? Am I nuts?

649
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 5: So it's funny you say that, Hey, I love the

650
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 5: way you're thinking about the economics of this deal. It's

651
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 5: not that dissimilar. Remember when ESPN went out and signed

652
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 5: Tory Aigman and Joe Buck for eight figure yearly contracts,

653
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 5: Everyone's like, what are they doing? Meanwhile, it puts him

654
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 5: in better with the NFL. They get better games the

655
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 5: ad rates go up, they sell more commercial time, the

656
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:33,479
Speaker 5: ratings go up. Those deals were paid for in one game. Right.

657
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 5: You just made the same point with Harbaugh. It doesn't

658
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 5: matter what they pay him. They were going to pay

659
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 5: for it in some way, shape or form by the

660
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,240
Speaker 5: publicity they were getting, in the attention they were getting,

661
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 5: and oh, by the way, it's going to be such

662
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 5: a better product on the field. He is a game

663
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 5: changing coach. He has been that way everywhere he has gone.

664
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 5: What he does is drive the people that he works

665
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 5: for crazy, and that's when he ends up, you know,

666
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 5: burning out his welcome. But he will have this team

667
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 5: ready to be very competitive and be a contender in

668
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:10,760
Speaker 5: the AFC very very quickly. When you were asking win total,

669
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 5: my first instinct was nine, and you're saying ten. I

670
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 5: could see it at ten because bookmakers might feel like

671
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 5: they can take advantage of the public and set it

672
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 5: a little bit higher because they can say, all right,

673
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 5: Jim Harbaugh is getting so much attention, we know they're

674
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 5: going to want to bet the over no matter what

675
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 5: it is. So let's set it at ten and let's

676
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 5: see what we can sort of get in terms of

677
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 5: some soccer money. But I would not bet against Jim Harbaugh.

678
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 5: I love the guy, love the guy as a coach.

679
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 5: I think he's amazing.

680
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: So the public could do very well if Detroit wins.

681
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 1: But the public had a very good year betting. I

682
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 1: want to circle back to one of my theories on this,

683
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: because I had a very good year betting, and it

684
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 1: took me about four weeks to figure it out. But

685
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: I was overthinking the room. And I've done this in

686
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 1: the AFC playoffs where I'm five and zo basically picking

687
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: the best quarterback. I took Stroud over Flacco. The Sharps

688
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 1: like Flacco, and I'm taking golf to cover against Purdy.

689
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 1: In fact, I took Love over Purdy and he outplayed them.

690
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: Is that is do you believe now on a macro

691
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: level that some I mean, you'll tweak everything you do

692
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 1: because you're a professional gambler. But there is a dynamic

693
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 1: now that has to be considered. The young quarterbacks that

694
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: come in, if they've got two years starting and all

695
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 1: those camps and the new culture, it's a cottage industry quarterback.

696
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 1: They're better, faster, the coaching's better, and increasingly there's more

697
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: offensive coaches, and that the best quarterback. It's hard, harder

698
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 1: than it's ever been to bed against them because I

699
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: find myself a default. In fact, a prime example, I

700
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 1: took Kyler Murray several times. I didn't think Arizona was better,

701
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 1: but like against Philadelphia, I'm like, Jalen's struggling. He may

702
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 1: be better than Kyler, but Kyler's healthy, rested. I'm taking Kyler.

703
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 1: Will you tweak over the course of a season seeing

704
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: these trends which appear to be substantial, It may only

705
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: be a half point to a point. But I one

706
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 1: of the teams I didn't bet this year that a

707
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: lot of people did was the Colts because I just

708
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: couldn't buy into Gardner Minshew as much as I like

709
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:25,280
Speaker 1: Shane Steiken. Your take away sort of my my rambling

710
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: here about this changing. It feels like the league is

711
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: slightly changing for betting.

712
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 5: So there's there's three different things that I want to

713
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 5: that I want to pick out of that number one

714
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 5: great year for the public favorites were winning at an

715
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 5: unprecedented clip. And if you're like me and you like

716
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 5: to play underdogs, and you find value in the underdogs,

717
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 5: and when you model these things, you're playing on the

718
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 5: idea that bookmakers are going to overvalue favorites because that's

719
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 5: where they can expect the public to come in. So

720
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 5: they're going to give you an advantage. This year, it

721
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 5: didn't matter as much, right, So that's number one. Do

722
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 5: I think that's a trend? Do I think that there

723
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 5: is going to be regression for that? My guess is

724
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 5: there will be a regression. There are some things that

725
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:14,800
Speaker 5: are irrefutable when it comes to betting. Regression is irrefutable,

726
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 5: right Number one. Number two the quarterbacks betting, And we've

727
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 5: talked about this a lot this week on my podcast

728
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 5: because the Chiefs and the Ravens are a perfect example

729
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 5: of trying to figure out when you are betting, how

730
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 5: to ride the wave and then get off the wave

731
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 5: before it crests. Historically, you look at Lamar Jackson terrible

732
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 5: as a favorite of more than three and a half

733
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 5: or more, Patrick Mahomes amazing as an underdog of three

734
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 5: or any number. Right, So last week we were betting

735
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 5: on the Texans because we felt like Lamar Jackson hasn't

736
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 5: proven it yet. We were betting on the Chiefs because

737
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 5: we felt like we were betting against the Chiefs because

738
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,240
Speaker 5: we felt like at two and a half, the Bills

739
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 5: were the right side and Patrick Mahomes' time has passed

740
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 5: because this team isn't as good. Missed on both counts

741
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 5: because the wave went one way and we were expecting

742
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 5: you could to do a different way with the Ravens,

743
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 5: and the wave went one way and we were expecting

744
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 5: it to stay the same with the Chiefs. And so

745
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 5: this week trying to thread that needle. Are we betting

746
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 5: on Lamar Jackson? Do we think he's over the hump

747
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 5: on the stressful situations and choking in the playoffs? Are

748
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 5: we betting on Patrick Mahomes Because what we've seen out

749
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 5: of him, no matter what his team has been, has

750
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 5: been so good so often. That is the biggest challenge,

751
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 5: and adjusting that it's really really hard, and this is

752
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 5: a game where you sort of measure it.

753
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 1: The reason I'm taking Lamar over Mahomes, I consider Mahomes better,

754
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 1: but as I told you circumstantially with Kyler Murray, I

755
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:02,800
Speaker 1: believe Lamar is at home with better protection and significantly

756
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 1: better weapons. So it's not just who's better circumstances, whether

757
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: where's the game, what are your weapons? I think with

758
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: Marlon Humphreys coming back taking on Rashi Rice. You're not

759
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: going to run much on Baltimore. I think Mahomes is

760
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 1: going to be very frustrated in this game at times.

761
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 1: And I think Lamar. I think Jay Flowers Mark Andrews

762
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: back he Zay Flowers has been I mean just a

763
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: seminole change in his career. I mean Lamar has He's

764
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: got his you know, Stafford Is Cooper Cup, He's got

765
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: his safety valve. He never had one. It was a

766
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: tight end. So in that instance, I like Lamar because

767
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 1: I think he'll be the better quarterback in this game.

768
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 1: I think Goff will have better protection, better protection, and

769
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 1: I'm betting that Debo doesn't play much, so that GoF

770
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,919
Speaker 1: will be the better quarterback in this game. May not win,

771
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: but I don't think you're getting forty eight snaps from Deebo.

772
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: I think you're getting eighteen. And therefore, I like the

773
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 1: weaponry of amor On Saint Brown, Laporta, Gibbs, Montgomery, and

774
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: he'll have better protection. So in this instance, I believe

775
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 1: I am taking, well, Goff is better than Purty is

776
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: a natural thrower. I'm taking the better quarterback circumstantially, And

777
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: what he's surrounded by So that's why I'm taking my pick.

778
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 1: So again this is the classic. I know that Malms

779
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 1: is better than Lamar. I don't think he's got great

780
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:30,720
Speaker 1: protection this year. Now he's not getting sacked much because

781
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 1: he's very nimble. This Baltimore front is this is the

782
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 1: best linebacking crew in football. It's this front seven is

783
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 1: really athletic and really twitchy for big athletes.

784
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: And I think he's going to be under some dress.

785
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 5: So to your point about the quarterbacks, it's a little

786
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 5: bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, yes, because the better

787
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 5: quarterback is almost always on the better team. And so

788
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 5: if you want to bet on the better quarterback, they're

789
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 5: almost always going to be on the favorite. And this

790
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 5: year the favorites were winning at a larger clip than

791
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 5: they ever have before. So the real test to your theory,

792
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 5: and this is what's interesting about betting, is you don't

793
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 5: bet for the week. You bet for your life, right,

794
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 5: and how did you do this year? How did you

795
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 5: do the next year? How do you do the year

796
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 5: after that? Does that trend continue to hold? It's why

797
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 5: trends can be an interesting compliment to anything you're doing.

798
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 5: When you're talking about betting. We're talking about what's happening

799
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 5: on the field. That's really important. A trend is a

800
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 5: good compliment to anything you're thinking about in the field.

801
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 5: It's not the reason you make the bet. So well

802
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 5: the Colin Cowherd good quarterback theory hold up next year.

803
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 5: That's when we start to know if that's really something

804
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 5: that is sustainable. As for the game, I think what

805
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 5: you're saying about the Chiefs offensive line is critical. I

806
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 5: think the middle of the field for the Chiefs in

807
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 5: this game against the Ravens defense is critical. The Chiefs

808
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 5: are not an explosive offense at all. If Marlin Humphrey

809
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,360
Speaker 5: is back like you say, and he is locking up

810
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 5: or sheet rice, which is what the expectation is. The

811
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 5: Ravens are not the Bills who are starting Aj Klein.

812
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 5: They are not the Dolphins who are decimated at every

813
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 5: level of their defense. They are Patrick Queen, they are

814
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 5: Rokwan Smith defending the middle of the field, who can

815
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 5: do wonders when they're patrolling that middle of the field.

816
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 5: And as we said before, Joe Toney offensive guard for

817
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:21,760
Speaker 5: the Chiefs and not going to be playing that also

818
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 5: will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to step up

819
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 5: into the pocket. There's nothing scarier for a quarterback than

820
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 5: not being able to step up right. They like to

821
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 5: roll out, They like to be able to step up

822
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 5: against pressure that is coming in from the edges. I

823
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,800
Speaker 5: think that's going to be a real handicap for Patrick

824
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 5: Mahomes in this game. So I completely agree with your

825
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 5: theory on why you like the Ravens and why Lamar

826
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 5: could be the better quarterback in this game. That's why

827
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 5: the Sharps believe it too.

828
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 3: The volume.

829
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,

830
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 1: take a moment rate and review