WEBVTT - Landing on the Moon Is a Great Lesson for Modern Miracles

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the

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<v Speaker 1>global economating you, and we have a special episode this

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<v Speaker 1>week featuring a conversation I had a few weeks ago

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<v Speaker 1>for RESET, a special two day conference on the future

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<v Speaker 1>of the US economy that Bloomberg Economics co produced with

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<v Speaker 1>the Aspen Institute. This exchange I wanted to play you

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<v Speaker 1>was with my friend Marianna Matsukata, professor in the economics

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<v Speaker 1>of Innovation and Public Value at University College London. Her

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<v Speaker 1>first book, The Entrepreneurial State, was very influential change the

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<v Speaker 1>way we think about the role that the public sector

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<v Speaker 1>has played in some of those great business success stories

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<v Speaker 1>of our time. And another one, The Value of Everything,

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<v Speaker 1>Making and Taking in the Global Economy, absolutely nailed the

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<v Speaker 1>way that a particular narrow conception of value had permeated,

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<v Speaker 1>indeed distorted the way we think about the economy and

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<v Speaker 1>society over the last hundred years. And she's just produced

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<v Speaker 1>a new book which also seems well timed for the

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<v Speaker 1>position we find ourselves in right now. It's called The

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<v Speaker 1>Mission Economy, A moon Shot Guide to Changing Capitalism. I

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<v Speaker 1>started by asking her about some of the big ideas

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<v Speaker 1>that had got her thinking about the moon shot as

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<v Speaker 1>a guide to policy. This extraction of value which I

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<v Speaker 1>talked about in the book The Value of Everything, the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of record level share buy backs in the last

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<v Speaker 1>ten years, for trillion dollars have gone to bind back

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<v Speaker 1>shares by the Fortune five companies. This is not the

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<v Speaker 1>way to run a society in terms of a corporate

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<v Speaker 1>business model. So, whether it's Larry Fink or the Business

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<v Speaker 1>Roundtable putting out the statement over a year ago about

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we need to rethink that model in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of reinvesting back into long run areas that help people, planet,

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<v Speaker 1>working conditions, and so on. And this conversation is a

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<v Speaker 1>very important one. We shouldn't dismiss it if we remind

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<v Speaker 1>ourselves that markets are not the same thing as business.

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<v Speaker 1>Markets are outcomes of how we govern business and how

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<v Speaker 1>we govern other types of value creating institutions. We also,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, present ourselves with the problem, which is how

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<v Speaker 1>is government governed? How is the public sector government? And

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<v Speaker 1>what I've been writing about now for some years is

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<v Speaker 1>that we also have a problem there. It's not just

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<v Speaker 1>corporate governance that needs to rethink itself. It's also kind

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<v Speaker 1>of government governance. The fact that economic theory, and I

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to blame economists, of which I'm one for everything,

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<v Speaker 1>but the fact that economic theory itself has at best

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<v Speaker 1>framed the role of the public sector, the state and

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<v Speaker 1>policy as simply fixing market failures is part of the problem.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not going to get there by simply putting different

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<v Speaker 1>types of patches on the system and the market failure

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<v Speaker 1>approach which forces government to always ask where is the

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<v Speaker 1>market failure? How am I going to fix it? That's

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<v Speaker 1>an important framework, but it's very hard to fix your

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<v Speaker 1>way towards transformational growth. And by transformational growth, by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>don't just mean these kind of big social objectives like

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<v Speaker 1>health and and climate. I also mean literally in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of the direction of growth. And in the UK we're

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<v Speaker 1>on standing today the kind of growth we have continues

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<v Speaker 1>to be consumption led growth, which has really led to

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<v Speaker 1>a very high ratio, for example, of private debt to

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<v Speaker 1>disposable income, not public debt, but private debt to disposable income.

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<v Speaker 1>So shifting that growth model from consumption to investment led

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<v Speaker 1>growth and innovation driven growth, and having that investment and

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<v Speaker 1>innovation help us solve some really important problems like the

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<v Speaker 1>ones around climate health and the sustainable development goals need

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<v Speaker 1>a different approach to policy making, one that I call

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<v Speaker 1>actively shaping and co creating markets alongside business, not just

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<v Speaker 1>fixing markets. And one thing that I found very curious

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<v Speaker 1>in the UK was is um you know, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the data that's come out since Brexit and now

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<v Speaker 1>with COVID has been showing just how much the government

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<v Speaker 1>has been overly relying on consulting companies Deloitte that ended

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<v Speaker 1>up being asked to roll out the test and trade

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<v Speaker 1>system and didn't do too well. But also with Brexit,

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<v Speaker 1>the KPMG, s Price Waterhouse Coopers and so on, which

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<v Speaker 1>ended up almost managing project managing Brexit for the government.

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<v Speaker 1>This over consultification of government. A Tory Lord Agnew said

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<v Speaker 1>that this was leading to an infantilized public sector. And

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<v Speaker 1>when you start outsourcing your brain, as I think the

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<v Speaker 1>US government has done in the recent years, one could

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<v Speaker 1>view the whole n Essay kind of Snowden scandal as

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<v Speaker 1>an outcome of the government almost losing its capability to

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<v Speaker 1>govern information computing in the technology revolution, that you have

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<v Speaker 1>a problem. So this is the reason that in the

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<v Speaker 1>recent book that I wrote, I asked, we'll hold on

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<v Speaker 1>a second. You know, we could do better. And only

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<v Speaker 1>fifty years ago, public and pri of its sectors worked

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<v Speaker 1>together extremely ambitiously um to get to the moon and back.

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<v Speaker 1>You know that that's a famous goal that Kennedy set

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<v Speaker 1>back in nineteen sixty two. The problems we have today

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<v Speaker 1>are much trickier. Actually, there's wicked problems. They require political, behavioral,

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<v Speaker 1>regulatory change, not just technological change. But it was truly

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<v Speaker 1>a partnership. There was both business and government doing incredibly

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<v Speaker 1>difficult things. And what was especially interesting to me is

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<v Speaker 1>how government, through NASA but also some other public institutions,

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<v Speaker 1>paid a lot of attention to the how to partner

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<v Speaker 1>with business, and they even looked at the contracts and

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<v Speaker 1>undid the existing contracts. And will come to that in

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<v Speaker 1>a minute. But the kind of leadership that was required

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<v Speaker 1>by government to set the direction of change and then

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<v Speaker 1>catalyze a lot of risk taking bottom up amongst different

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<v Speaker 1>actors in society. So you know, Kennedy's speech was very clear,

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to cost a huge amount of money,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's going to be worth it. And focusing on

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<v Speaker 1>the goal and then backtracking on the budget, all these

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<v Speaker 1>are just really interesting lessons I think today as we

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<v Speaker 1>need to build back better that famous slogan, but especially

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<v Speaker 1>rethink the organizations that we have in both government and

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<v Speaker 1>in business. And you know what's quite striking is that

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<v Speaker 1>when Kennedy, you know, did his speech, they had no

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<v Speaker 1>clue how to get to the moon. So literally the

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<v Speaker 1>innovation and risk taking, the experimentation that was that was

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<v Speaker 1>required was immense. Uh. They ended up you know, landing

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<v Speaker 1>on this lunar or a bit rendezvous way, but they

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<v Speaker 1>were really exploring all sorts of different techniques. And on

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<v Speaker 1>the tragic day in which Apollo one the fire occurred,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the astronauts said something that I think is

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<v Speaker 1>just so important, which was we can't even talk to

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<v Speaker 1>each other through different NASA kind of mission control rooms,

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<v Speaker 1>how are we going to get to the moon. He

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<v Speaker 1>was talking about the very siloed, linear, vertical bureaucratic form

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<v Speaker 1>in which the state itself was structured, and he was

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<v Speaker 1>basically saying, if we're gonna be purpose driven, using today's

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<v Speaker 1>words and get to the moon and back in the generation,

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna have to rethink actually how we communicate within

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<v Speaker 1>our own structures and that kind of attention to organizational

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<v Speaker 1>change with something that NASA, through George Mueller's leadership, really

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<v Speaker 1>embarked on. And this is important, right because if you

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be purpose driven, what does it mean

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<v Speaker 1>for your own organizational culture, not just in business, but

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<v Speaker 1>also in government and the purpose This notion of a

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<v Speaker 1>partnership with a common purpose is really what I think

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<v Speaker 1>is so important in terms of allowing us to give

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<v Speaker 1>more substance to this notion of stakeholder capitalism. It was

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<v Speaker 1>so curious that they paid attention not only to the

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<v Speaker 1>procurement contracts in terms of how to devise them so

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<v Speaker 1>government wouldn't be, uh, just if you want, vulnerable to

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<v Speaker 1>paying any costs that were presented to them through cost

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<v Speaker 1>price contracts, which they changed to fixed price contracts with

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<v Speaker 1>incentives for innovation. But they also paid attention to making

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<v Speaker 1>sure that this enterprise that they were going to do together,

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<v Speaker 1>this wonderful, difficult mission, was it just going to become

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<v Speaker 1>a gambling casino. So they even had clauses like no

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<v Speaker 1>excess profits clauses in the procurement contracts, and of course

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<v Speaker 1>profits were earned, but there was also a real kind

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<v Speaker 1>of risk sharing and reward sharing in the process and

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<v Speaker 1>so sharing both risks and rewards I think is incredibly important.

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<v Speaker 1>This idea that you know, mass itself required its own capabilities,

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<v Speaker 1>investing within its own brain what I call the dynamic

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<v Speaker 1>capabilities of the public sector in order even to know

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<v Speaker 1>how to write the terms of reference with business to

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<v Speaker 1>foster a symbiotic and mutualistic partnership. And what was so

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<v Speaker 1>special about the moon landing was so much happened along

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<v Speaker 1>the way, spillovers across many different sectors. It wasn't just aeronautics,

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<v Speaker 1>it was nutrition, materials, electronics, the entire software industry in

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<v Speaker 1>some ways was an outcome of that. And that really

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<v Speaker 1>did happen because of a kind of top down, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>mission setting, but lots of bottom up experimentation, and that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of delicate balance between the two is really what

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<v Speaker 1>I focus on in the book for allowing us to

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<v Speaker 1>really create a concrete investment pathway in trajectory for the SDGs.

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<v Speaker 1>The SDGs these are the earth shots. They're much harder

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<v Speaker 1>actually than a purely technological missions. And what that really

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<v Speaker 1>requires is again partnership with purpose, I guess, just to

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<v Speaker 1>get one thing out of the way first, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there will be people listening, certainly people who have heard

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<v Speaker 1>a lot about stakeholder capitalism before and indeed maybe sitting

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<v Speaker 1>in businesses trying to make it work. Um, there will

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<v Speaker 1>be others who are just used to managing people and

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<v Speaker 1>getting things done, and they'll say it's not very complicated.

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<v Speaker 1>If you actually want to make progress, you need to

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<v Speaker 1>set a big target and then work as a team

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<v Speaker 1>to meet it. Why do I need a whole book

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<v Speaker 1>to tell me that? What? What is different about what

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<v Speaker 1>you're actually what you're proposing? Because having a mission exactly

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<v Speaker 1>so um for me at least, missions are about again,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you partner in a different way? So let's

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<v Speaker 1>even unpick for example, Um, you know any of the

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<v Speaker 1>goals like you know STG fourteen around clean oceans, what

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<v Speaker 1>does it mean actually to transform it into a very

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<v Speaker 1>concrete goal like getting the plastic out of the ocean

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<v Speaker 1>and make sure that the way that government interacts with business,

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<v Speaker 1>which is constantly interact in terms of subsidies, guarantees, grants

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<v Speaker 1>and loans becomes actually conditional on you know, business and

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<v Speaker 1>different types of businesses which will actually require different types

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<v Speaker 1>of support, uh, investing in that goal together. And even

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<v Speaker 1>though that sounds really obvious. It simply doesn't happen. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I've looked at so many different sectors, especially by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>the pharmaceutical sector, which gets all sorts of benefits from

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<v Speaker 1>government in the United States forty billion dollars a year

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<v Speaker 1>goes towards drug innovation, and somehow then we don't get

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<v Speaker 1>that kind of conditionality and partnership, right, So intellectual property

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<v Speaker 1>rights in particular for that sector are often abused. They

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<v Speaker 1>are to upstream, their too wide, used for strategic patenting,

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<v Speaker 1>there too strong, so hard to license. The prices of

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<v Speaker 1>the drugs don't actually reflect that collective value creation. And

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, governing the partnership, governing innovation in such

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<v Speaker 1>a way as serious as NASA was when it unpicked

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<v Speaker 1>those procurement contracts and said, Nope, this isn't gonna be good.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna be taken for a ride. And truly sharing

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<v Speaker 1>both risks and rewards means doing things quite differently. And

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine, which is a great example actually today of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, both the public and the private sector putting

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<v Speaker 1>in a lot of money, but also you know it

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<v Speaker 1>was based on a lot of previous funding. The Oxford

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine from also the European Commission, as was by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>the fives are vaccine, which got money from the European

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<v Speaker 1>Commission and the German government. Um so these are all

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<v Speaker 1>kind of ecosystems public and private investments that produce something

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<v Speaker 1>like a vaccine. But then if you don't govern it

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<v Speaker 1>right to meet let's call it the common good, then

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<v Speaker 1>that's a problem in terms of the deal. So the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of a patent pool for the vaccine, but also

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<v Speaker 1>making sure the vaccine is universally accessible so we don't

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<v Speaker 1>have what Dr Tedris called vaccine apartheid, so countries just

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<v Speaker 1>hoarding it. That's all about kind of governing that process

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<v Speaker 1>right in a particular way. And you could unpick the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing with digital platforms. You know, everything that makes

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<v Speaker 1>our smart products smart and not stupid was funded by government, Internet, GPS, touchscreen, serrie.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet then if you don't govern that innovation for

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<v Speaker 1>the public good, you end up with what I was

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<v Speaker 1>arguing in the beginning, kind of too little, too late,

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<v Speaker 1>worried about privacy taxation as kind of in the back

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<v Speaker 1>saying oh wait, wait, wait, hold on, as opposed to

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<v Speaker 1>making sure you have kind of you know what I

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<v Speaker 1>called predistribution, which is a nice term also that others use,

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<v Speaker 1>which is how do we get the conditions right ex

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<v Speaker 1>anti so you don't have to pick the up the

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.440
<v Speaker 1>mess x post. And that to me is central to

0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 1>a mission oriented approach where purpose is at the center

0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:04.400
<v Speaker 1>of the relationship, as opposed to just kind of a

0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.280
<v Speaker 1>siloed notion of how governments can improve. So we're going

0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:10.520
<v Speaker 1>to try and be kind of ruthlessly practical in this

0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:14.040
<v Speaker 1>session and think about how it applies to the new administration,

0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:16.400
<v Speaker 1>But any any government who's trying to think about how

0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 1>to change the way we do these things. You say

0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:22.199
<v Speaker 1>yourself in the book that there are there are ways

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.960
<v Speaker 1>in which the moon landings are not a helpful guide

0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.439
<v Speaker 1>for now and for the challenges we face now. One

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.120
<v Speaker 1>of one is that it was sort of chosen by

0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 1>a quite narrow part of society that we were going

0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 1>to go to boon, and maybe not everyone would have

0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.080
<v Speaker 1>signed up for that um. But another is that it's

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 1>it is quite a sort of clear technical challenge, enormously

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:47.120
<v Speaker 1>ambitious and difficult, but easily explained and with a quite

0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.680
<v Speaker 1>clear process leading up to it. Where and I think

0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 1>you could say the vaccines are actually an even better

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.559
<v Speaker 1>example of that, you know, a very clearly defined target.

0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:59.120
<v Speaker 1>Some of the sustainable development goals would have that characteristic,

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.960
<v Speaker 1>they're quite specific. But when you think about something that

0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:05.520
<v Speaker 1>you're obviously very focused on and you have applied this too,

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:09.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean climate change, so many layers of that that

0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:12.360
<v Speaker 1>are not just technical, they are also social. They're also

0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 1>about how we value you know, going back to your

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:17.200
<v Speaker 1>other book about how we value things. Um, So I

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 1>just where do you get to the point where it's

0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 1>less helpful to have this kind of parallel Um, how

0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.560
<v Speaker 1>can you use this approach for something which is more

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:32.400
<v Speaker 1>social and more multi layered. Thanks for that question. It's

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>very important. So, um, you know what's interesting is, you

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.960
<v Speaker 1>know many people remember that that famous story that the

0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:42.920
<v Speaker 1>janitor who worked and asked so when he was asked,

0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:44.400
<v Speaker 1>what do you do? And he said, I'm helping to

0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 1>get a man on the moon. So in some sense,

0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.280
<v Speaker 1>you know what also the moon landing did was really

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.360
<v Speaker 1>inspire so many different people, including lots of kids who

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 1>ended up studying science, you know, because of the inspiration.

0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:59.560
<v Speaker 1>But it wasn't you know, citizens weren't engaged in the design,

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:02.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, of the mission itself, you know, it really

0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:04.840
<v Speaker 1>was top down. Some of the more interesting missions that

0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.160
<v Speaker 1>we're working on in the institute that I run at

0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 1>University College London, which is called the Institute of Innovation

0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.600
<v Speaker 1>and Public Purpose, you know, the whole notion of purpose

0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 1>at the center of political economy UM are on missions

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:20.960
<v Speaker 1>in countries like Sweden where the national mission is so interesting.

0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.520
<v Speaker 1>It's about a fossil free welfare state. And then if

0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:27.720
<v Speaker 1>you break down everything the state does and provides, from

0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:31.720
<v Speaker 1>public transport, public education, public health, a lot of that

0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.640
<v Speaker 1>is actually obviously in partnership with business UM. But what

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:39.560
<v Speaker 1>does it mean to land those those ambitions in concrete places.

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 1>Take the the public education system. You know, if you

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:48.880
<v Speaker 1>have a carbon neutral agenda, a fossil free welfare state agenda,

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 1>it can actually land in a place like school meals, right,

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:54.920
<v Speaker 1>so you can have the production, distribution and consumption of

0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.120
<v Speaker 1>school meals driven by this carbon neutral agenda. But what

0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:00.360
<v Speaker 1>would it look like to bring kids to the day,

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.000
<v Speaker 1>students in schools to the table to design that, but

0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.480
<v Speaker 1>also to monitor it along the way. You know, if

0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:07.760
<v Speaker 1>the food is sustainable but kind of sucks and it's

0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.480
<v Speaker 1>not very tasty, that's not gonna work. Um, so that

0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.760
<v Speaker 1>both the issue of code design but also monitoring along

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.680
<v Speaker 1>the way is an important point. And in Camden, the

0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.040
<v Speaker 1>part of London where I live and I co chair

0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:22.560
<v Speaker 1>the Camden Renewal Commission with Georgia Gould, the Leader of

0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:24.920
<v Speaker 1>the Council, and one of the things we started doing

0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:28.640
<v Speaker 1>is thinking about carbon neutrality with the place where it

0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 1>lands is the social housing estates what in the USA

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.560
<v Speaker 1>called housing projects and again, what does it mean to

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:38.800
<v Speaker 1>bring housing associations or citizen assemblies to the table to

0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.640
<v Speaker 1>really talk and debate and contest about how do we

0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.000
<v Speaker 1>want to live together in these places so that it

0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.240
<v Speaker 1>is not just sustainable, but it's also an outcome of,

0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, a discussion. You know, it's easy to pet

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.040
<v Speaker 1>Breta Tornberg on the head and say, oh, how cute.

0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:55.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, sixteen or eighteen year old now cares about

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 1>climate change. But what does it mean to listen to

0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.200
<v Speaker 1>social movements? And that's really important, by the way, because

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:03.800
<v Speaker 1>it's not just you know, the green movement, it's also

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:07.439
<v Speaker 1>the labor movement. Labor at as a record labor is

0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:09.879
<v Speaker 1>at a record low in terms of the labor share

0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:13.480
<v Speaker 1>of GDP globally, the profit shares at a record high.

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:17.879
<v Speaker 1>Labor unions trade unions have historically been incredibly important for

0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:21.960
<v Speaker 1>shaping markets to be more inclusive. We wouldn't have weekends,

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.480
<v Speaker 1>by the way, not bad as a social innovation. We

0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.480
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't have the eight hour work day without trade unions.

0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 1>So you know, whether it's the labor movement, whether it's

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:33.920
<v Speaker 1>a green movement, whether it's Black Lives Matter, whether it's

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:36.639
<v Speaker 1>the care workers today and that movement, what does it

0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:40.040
<v Speaker 1>mean for governments themselves to listen to actually allow that

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.639
<v Speaker 1>to be part of the process through which emissions are set.

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 1>And in German, I think what's interesting is they've had

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>one of the strongest green movements um across the globe,

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:53.880
<v Speaker 1>having risen slowly up to the to the very high

0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:57.160
<v Speaker 1>level of government, and that ended up fostering a very

0:17:57.240 --> 0:18:00.640
<v Speaker 1>different relationship between government and business. So couple of years ago,

0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.919
<v Speaker 1>when the steel industry asked government for a loan and

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 1>a bailout, as steel is more or less asking every

0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:11.119
<v Speaker 1>government or bailout in Germany, they were confident enough to

0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:15.360
<v Speaker 1>make that loan conditional on the steel sector reducing its

0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.879
<v Speaker 1>material content, which it ended up doing. In its own way.

0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Today the German steel sector is one of the most

0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:24.159
<v Speaker 1>green and innovative in the world, not because you know,

0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.639
<v Speaker 1>they went to the World Economic Forum and talked about purpose,

0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.359
<v Speaker 1>but because they had to in order to access the

0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:32.760
<v Speaker 1>public loan. And that's a really interesting thing that started

0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.960
<v Speaker 1>to be applied with COVID nineteen recovery funds in some

0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.679
<v Speaker 1>parts of the world, like in France, where both the

0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:43.600
<v Speaker 1>airlines and automotive industries received their recovery bailout conditional on

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.679
<v Speaker 1>reducing or committing to reducing their carbon emissions, whereas in

0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 1>the UK we just gave a massive handout, you know,

0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:53.680
<v Speaker 1>to easy Jet, no conditions attached. So that issue of conditionality,

0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:58.000
<v Speaker 1>I think is a really interesting concrete example of how

0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:01.800
<v Speaker 1>to foster this new partnership. And unfortunately the word conditionality

0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:03.640
<v Speaker 1>sounds negative. So I do think we need to think

0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:07.600
<v Speaker 1>the narrative as well around partnership, you know, purpose driven

0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:15.360
<v Speaker 1>social contracts. Clearly, the really bigly tough challenge these days

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:23.199
<v Speaker 1>is the US, after decades of undermining the perceived value

0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 1>of government only little corners NASA and me. As Michael

0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:28.680
<v Speaker 1>Lewis points out in his book It's NASA was sort

0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:30.320
<v Speaker 1>of one of the few bits of government that was

0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.600
<v Speaker 1>allowed to take credit as a public sector organization. If

0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:37.399
<v Speaker 1>you're facing that which existed long before Donald Trump and

0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:40.040
<v Speaker 1>but now coming in as the Biden administration with the

0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.920
<v Speaker 1>particular record of the sort of acceleration of the undermining

0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:47.000
<v Speaker 1>of government that's happened over the last few years, I

0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:49.280
<v Speaker 1>guess there were there is. There is a sort of

0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:53.200
<v Speaker 1>debate obviously ongoing within the administration in lots of areas

0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 1>about whether the best thing to do is to be

0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:57.680
<v Speaker 1>quietly competent and just remind people that the government can

0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 1>be quietly competent and doesn't need to ruin your life

0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:04.280
<v Speaker 1>um and is actually quite important, or does it need

0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:06.320
<v Speaker 1>to be visionary. And of course a lot of people

0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:08.679
<v Speaker 1>would say you have to be competent and visionary, but

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.399
<v Speaker 1>they might sense, in the kind of way that you

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:14.120
<v Speaker 1>talk about this a real risk for them that if

0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 1>they try, if they set those enormous targets and seem

0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>to signal that they're going to completely transform the way

0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:22.520
<v Speaker 1>we think about government and have your kind of approach,

0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:26.160
<v Speaker 1>they'll be setting themselves up for this failure, for a failure,

0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:30.040
<v Speaker 1>an equally grand failure, which could undermine the battle kind

0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:31.800
<v Speaker 1>of longer term. So I just wonder, when you think

0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.440
<v Speaker 1>about the challenges that the administration faces and this trade

0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.359
<v Speaker 1>off between being competent and being visionary, how would you

0:20:38.400 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 1>apply your approach um great question, And you know, and

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:44.920
<v Speaker 1>first of all, we should remember that Trump was quite

0:20:45.000 --> 0:20:49.119
<v Speaker 1>unique in case people didn't now. Trump was actually the

0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:53.119
<v Speaker 1>first president that really attacked what I called the entrepreneurial state.

0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:55.119
<v Speaker 1>But one of the things I've been arguing is that

0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:57.520
<v Speaker 1>in the US especially but also globally, we need to

0:20:57.560 --> 0:21:00.600
<v Speaker 1>bring together these concepts of the well first state in

0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:03.119
<v Speaker 1>the innovation state that can actually work together, and the

0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:06.320
<v Speaker 1>welfare state can also be a demand pull for what.

0:21:06.440 --> 0:21:09.520
<v Speaker 1>Then the innovation state also feeds into the U S.

0:21:09.560 --> 0:21:12.440
<v Speaker 1>It's very dysfunctional. You have again forty billion a year

0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:16.160
<v Speaker 1>going in from the National Institutes of Health, and then

0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:18.440
<v Speaker 1>at best you have Medicare and Medicaid on the sort

0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:20.680
<v Speaker 1>of demand side, but they're not really aligned. And that's

0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:23.760
<v Speaker 1>why we get this whole kind of hyper inflated system

0:21:23.800 --> 0:21:26.120
<v Speaker 1>where the prices and the fees don't reflect at all

0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:29.840
<v Speaker 1>that public sector is taking. Biden's bringing back the attention

0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:33.440
<v Speaker 1>to an industrial strategy and innovation strategy and the investments

0:21:33.440 --> 0:21:38.080
<v Speaker 1>that we require in both social physical infrastructure innovation. That's

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:41.320
<v Speaker 1>an important first step. What he needs to avoid is

0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:44.200
<v Speaker 1>making this kind of an old style just list of sectors,

0:21:44.200 --> 0:21:46.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, make America great again in X, Y, and

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.879
<v Speaker 1>Z areas with the mission oriented approach suggests is that

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:53.000
<v Speaker 1>we need to remember that some of the best innovations

0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:55.560
<v Speaker 1>in the US, like all the ones that I mentioned before,

0:21:55.960 --> 0:21:59.119
<v Speaker 1>making this thing smart and not stupid, Internet, GPS and

0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:02.040
<v Speaker 1>so on, the where outcomes of the U. S Government

0:22:02.080 --> 0:22:04.399
<v Speaker 1>trying to solve a problem. So the Internet was a

0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:08.840
<v Speaker 1>solution to trying to get the satellites to communicate. GPS. Similarly,

0:22:08.880 --> 0:22:11.480
<v Speaker 1>there was a problem, GPS was a solution. So the

0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:15.160
<v Speaker 1>real question is how can the American kind of industrial

0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:18.399
<v Speaker 1>innovation system which did make it great. You know, they

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:22.440
<v Speaker 1>really were the leaders around the computer, computer revolution, etcetera.

0:22:22.640 --> 0:22:25.399
<v Speaker 1>What are the you know, what are today's problems and

0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:28.440
<v Speaker 1>questions that can drive that real kind of dynamic innovation

0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:30.880
<v Speaker 1>by both the public and the private sector. And lastly,

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, we need to remember when you talked about

0:22:34.359 --> 0:22:37.560
<v Speaker 1>the US government perhaps getting blamed for any failures that

0:22:37.600 --> 0:22:40.959
<v Speaker 1>happened along the way, that's normal. You know, it's impossible

0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:43.760
<v Speaker 1>to innovate without screwing up. But the only difference is

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:46.160
<v Speaker 1>that the venture capital is brag about it rightly. So

0:22:46.600 --> 0:22:49.280
<v Speaker 1>you can't have success without also admitting that you're going

0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:52.280
<v Speaker 1>to fail. And what the venture capitalists do, however, is

0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:54.040
<v Speaker 1>they make sure they're not just kind of you know,

0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:57.680
<v Speaker 1>picking up the downside. They're obviously also getting an upside

0:22:57.680 --> 0:23:00.760
<v Speaker 1>that gets reinvested back in. That's where the US government

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:04.760
<v Speaker 1>in the past kind of you know, didn't uh follow through.

0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:07.320
<v Speaker 1>So even if you look at the recovery after the

0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:12.400
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis, when Obama had an eight hundred billion stimulus program,

0:23:12.560 --> 0:23:16.159
<v Speaker 1>much of which was initially green directed, that's when he

0:23:16.200 --> 0:23:19.359
<v Speaker 1>brought in a Nobel Prize winner to direct the d

0:23:19.440 --> 0:23:22.760
<v Speaker 1>Oe Steve cho who set up are pa E. They

0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:25.720
<v Speaker 1>made all sorts of investments in different companies to foster

0:23:25.760 --> 0:23:29.920
<v Speaker 1>a green transition. Some of those companies failed, like Cylindra,

0:23:30.359 --> 0:23:33.560
<v Speaker 1>some succeeded like Tesla. Tesla and Slinder got the same

0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:36.720
<v Speaker 1>almost the same amount of money um. And the strange

0:23:36.760 --> 0:23:38.639
<v Speaker 1>thing is that even though Obama had all these golden

0:23:38.720 --> 0:23:41.959
<v Speaker 1>Sax guys in government, he said something that was quite silly,

0:23:42.280 --> 0:23:45.240
<v Speaker 1>he said to um Elon Musk. If you don't pay

0:23:45.280 --> 0:23:48.000
<v Speaker 1>back the loan, we get three million shares in your company. Now,

0:23:48.040 --> 0:23:50.399
<v Speaker 1>the loan was paid back in two thousand thirteen. It

0:23:50.440 --> 0:23:53.880
<v Speaker 1>was taken out two thousand nine, and had the government said,

0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:56.560
<v Speaker 1>what a venture capitalists would say is if you succeed,

0:23:56.600 --> 0:23:59.840
<v Speaker 1>we get equity, we get three million schairs. The change

0:23:59.840 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>in price per share was that multiplied by three million,

0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 1>would have more than paid back the cylinder loss in

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:08.639
<v Speaker 1>the next round. So the point here is that you

0:24:08.680 --> 0:24:11.280
<v Speaker 1>don't want to just be choosing kind of siloed projects.

0:24:11.560 --> 0:24:13.840
<v Speaker 1>You want to choose a direction. You want to pick

0:24:13.920 --> 0:24:16.399
<v Speaker 1>the willing, not pick the winners, pick the willing along

0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:19.440
<v Speaker 1>the way, but also structure it in an intelligent way

0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:22.639
<v Speaker 1>so citizens aren't just kind of belling out the downside

0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:25.280
<v Speaker 1>but also getting a share of the upside. Okay, one

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:28.160
<v Speaker 1>final question. There's lots of versions of this question which

0:24:28.160 --> 0:24:31.719
<v Speaker 1>have come through, which is kind of it sounds like, uh,

0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:34.040
<v Speaker 1>nothing's going to be fixed until everything is going to

0:24:34.080 --> 0:24:36.200
<v Speaker 1>be fixed. You know, you have a wonderful or economist

0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:37.639
<v Speaker 1>would put it. You know, you have a very general

0:24:37.640 --> 0:24:41.280
<v Speaker 1>equilibrium way of looking at the world, which is very

0:24:41.720 --> 0:24:44.679
<v Speaker 1>is immensely helpful in thinking about how one thing relates

0:24:44.680 --> 0:24:46.840
<v Speaker 1>to another, and they need to be more holistic. But

0:24:46.920 --> 0:24:52.040
<v Speaker 1>how should again, the Biden administration take on what you're

0:24:52.080 --> 0:24:55.520
<v Speaker 1>saying whilst also allowing there to be sort of short

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:58.960
<v Speaker 1>term practical winds along the way. So I mean, I

0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:01.280
<v Speaker 1>usually get accused of the opposite, that I'm too practical

0:25:01.280 --> 0:25:04.159
<v Speaker 1>and concrete. Um, So you know, the big point, of

0:25:04.200 --> 0:25:06.240
<v Speaker 1>course is that economic growth has not just a rate

0:25:06.240 --> 0:25:08.320
<v Speaker 1>but a direction. That's what we're talking about. That's like

0:25:08.359 --> 0:25:10.320
<v Speaker 1>the big broad point, which one could argue is kind

0:25:10.320 --> 0:25:13.199
<v Speaker 1>of too generic. The concrete point point is, how do

0:25:13.240 --> 0:25:17.040
<v Speaker 1>you render really explicit that directionality? What does it mean

0:25:17.080 --> 0:25:21.439
<v Speaker 1>for the concrete ways that we design things like procurement

0:25:21.520 --> 0:25:24.040
<v Speaker 1>and procurement, by the way, is a huge percentage of

0:25:24.080 --> 0:25:26.600
<v Speaker 1>government budgets. In the UK where you and I live,

0:25:27.080 --> 0:25:30.240
<v Speaker 1>the whole innovation budget of the country is ten billion.

0:25:30.680 --> 0:25:33.119
<v Speaker 1>Just the procurement budget of the Ministry of Transport the

0:25:33.160 --> 0:25:35.639
<v Speaker 1>Department of Transport is forty billion. And this is true

0:25:35.760 --> 0:25:39.760
<v Speaker 1>almost you know, globally it's often almost half of the

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:42.280
<v Speaker 1>whole government budget. So what does it mean to unpick

0:25:42.400 --> 0:25:46.080
<v Speaker 1>those contracts to make them really have purpose, you know,

0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:50.800
<v Speaker 1>a green transport system, and designing that procurement in order

0:25:50.800 --> 0:25:53.440
<v Speaker 1>that it really crowds in business investment because this isn't

0:25:53.440 --> 0:25:56.520
<v Speaker 1>about the state kind of doing everything. It's about choosing

0:25:56.960 --> 0:26:00.800
<v Speaker 1>and and really choosing very specific areas also, you know,

0:26:00.800 --> 0:26:04.240
<v Speaker 1>whether it's health or digital platforms, the vaccine, where we

0:26:04.320 --> 0:26:07.639
<v Speaker 1>can unpick where things go wrong and redesigned the contracts

0:26:07.680 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 1>themselves to foster a purpose driven kind of orientation. But

0:26:11.960 --> 0:26:14.840
<v Speaker 1>also the public investment side has to do much more

0:26:14.840 --> 0:26:17.399
<v Speaker 1>than just incentivize. You know, this is why if we

0:26:17.480 --> 0:26:19.800
<v Speaker 1>simply had R and D tax credits, we would not

0:26:19.840 --> 0:26:23.400
<v Speaker 1>have had the Internet revolution. It required active public investment,

0:26:23.640 --> 0:26:27.560
<v Speaker 1>and it was ambitious, it was bold, which then created

0:26:27.560 --> 0:26:30.560
<v Speaker 1>a whole new kind of you know, market opportunity, which

0:26:30.600 --> 0:26:35.480
<v Speaker 1>then raised business expectations of where future growth opportunities lie.

0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:38.879
<v Speaker 1>And unfortunately, so much tax policy, and I often go

0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:41.600
<v Speaker 1>very concrete on different types of tax policy, like capital

0:26:41.640 --> 0:26:45.840
<v Speaker 1>gains tax policies simply increased profits, they don't actually create

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:49.919
<v Speaker 1>what economists called additionality, catalyzing investment to happen where it

0:26:49.960 --> 0:26:53.840
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't have happened anyway. And having you know, proper metrics

0:26:54.560 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 1>about additionality, but also the kind of partnerships that we

0:26:57.640 --> 0:27:01.840
<v Speaker 1>are fostering, whether their predatory or symbiotic or mutualistic, that

0:27:01.920 --> 0:27:04.439
<v Speaker 1>needs just as much attention as kind of E. S

0:27:04.520 --> 0:27:08.360
<v Speaker 1>G types of targets. Marianna, we could talk a lot more.

0:27:09.000 --> 0:27:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much for joining us, and thank you

0:27:10.800 --> 0:27:14.560
<v Speaker 1>for everyone for listening and for all your questions. Thank

0:27:14.600 --> 0:27:22.679
<v Speaker 1>you thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We'll be back with

0:27:22.720 --> 0:27:25.320
<v Speaker 1>more next week. In the meantime, you can always get

0:27:25.320 --> 0:27:29.080
<v Speaker 1>more from Bloomberg Economics on the Bloomberg Terminal or Bloomberg

0:27:29.119 --> 0:27:32.800
<v Speaker 1>News website. You can also follow at Economics on Twitter.

0:27:33.680 --> 0:27:36.720
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Mangus Hendrickson, with thanks to

0:27:36.800 --> 0:27:40.800
<v Speaker 1>Marianna Matteo Carta and the Aspen Institute. Lucy Meekin is

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:44.760
<v Speaker 1>the executive producer of Stephanomics and the head of Bloomberg Podcasts.

0:27:44.760 --> 0:27:45.560
<v Speaker 1>Frances Can Leave