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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

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Speaker 2: Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Israeli officials now confirming the fact that there has been

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Speaker 3: a retaliatory strike against Tesbola in the suburbs of Beirut.

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Speaker 3: We're looking at three rockets here, Kayley, following the rocket

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Speaker 3: attack on the soccer field in the goal on heights

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Speaker 3: that claim the lives of twelve young people.

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Speaker 4: This is just breaking now.

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Speaker 3: It's something just emerging this hour, So we want to

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Speaker 3: be careful with the limited amount of information we have,

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Speaker 3: but a great opportunity to bring in the voice of

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Speaker 3: an expert. We're joined by Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow at

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Speaker 3: the Center for Strategic and International Study the Middle East Program. Natasha,

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Speaker 3: it's good to see you. Thank you for joining us

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Speaker 3: here today on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 3: There was a question about what the response would be.

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Speaker 3: Does this seem proportionate in the outset?

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Speaker 1: So I would say that I was speaking to diplomats

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Speaker 1: just a bit earlier than this, and there had been

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Speaker 1: some evacuation of the Dahia, or this suburban area of

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Speaker 1: Beirut that is also a Hesibalala stronghold. So many people

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Speaker 1: in the area knew that this might be the targeted

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Speaker 1: area and had been evacuating for some time. That said,

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Speaker 1: we should still be aware of the civilian casualties that

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Speaker 1: might be at play, because this is a neighborhood after all.

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Speaker 1: But I would say that this was something that was

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Speaker 1: to be expected, and.

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Speaker 5: Of course there is a lot we don't know, including

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Speaker 5: what casualties may have resulted from this. We just know

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Speaker 5: that Israel was targeting a Hesbelah commander, but of course

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Speaker 5: we know that Israel often targets specific people and there

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Speaker 5: is more collateral damage that comes with it. We just

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Speaker 5: had a headline from N twelve TV citing in Israelia

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Speaker 5: saying that they are not looking to start a regional war.

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Speaker 5: Does that just depend though, on the response that Hesbela

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Speaker 5: may deliver to this. Israel has made its.

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Speaker 1: Move, I would say that for Hesbealah and for Israel,

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Speaker 1: a regional escalation is not in the cards, or at

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Speaker 1: least they don't want it to be in the cards

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Speaker 1: that said, there could always be an escalation essentially by accident,

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Speaker 1: which is essentially what happened with the Mujdischemps attack that

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Speaker 1: you mentioned that killed twelve young people so recently. This

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Speaker 1: was a mistake essentially. It seems like it was a

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Speaker 1: strike strike that was a mistake, and so it's just

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Speaker 1: something like that, just any kind of spark that could

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Speaker 1: lead to a wider conflagation, and that's what we're all

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Speaker 1: very very worried about right now. I think Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: and others within the administration are working very very hard

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Speaker 1: not to see that regional escalation because that would essentially

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Speaker 1: mean a two front war for Israel as well.

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Speaker 3: What is Iran telling Hesbela right now?

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Speaker 1: I would say that Iran all so does not want

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Speaker 1: much of an escalation at this point. It is getting

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Speaker 1: major political points within the region, and I would say

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Speaker 1: in the world for everything that Israeli Israeli officials are

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Speaker 1: doing pretty much on their own within Israel in terms

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Speaker 1: of what's the horrific humanitarian catastrophe going on in Gaza

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Speaker 1: right now, but also what's going on within Israel in

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Speaker 1: terms of the political turmoil there so it doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: to me that Iran would really need to do much

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Speaker 1: to damage Israel standing any further.

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Speaker 5: So, if we're if this is a matter of incentives

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Speaker 5: to not escalate further, whose incentive is greater to be

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Speaker 5: holding back here? Is it Israel or Iron in its proxies.

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Speaker 1: So that's a good question. So you're saying Israel, but

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Speaker 1: really what we're talking about is a handful of Israel

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Speaker 1: the issue government, right the Netanyahu government, which I think

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Speaker 1: is different than necessarily what the interests of israelis or

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Speaker 1: Israel would be. And that's and that's concerning, and that's

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Speaker 1: been concerning for US officials for some time, that Netanyah,

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Speaker 1: who might prolong a war, even expand away war so

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Speaker 1: that he could maintain control within the government. That said,

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Speaker 1: I think the Iranian officials will probably try to mitigate

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Speaker 1: the larger consequences of this war, but also use all

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Speaker 1: of the internal turmoil that's going on in Israel and

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Speaker 1: what's going on in Gaza to really build up more

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Speaker 1: political points here. That said, you know, you're poking the bear,

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Speaker 1: the bear being has Bulah, and there might have to

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Speaker 1: be other retaliatory strikes, depending on the extent of the

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Speaker 1: attacks that we've just been talking about.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's a great point that we might not be

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Speaker 3: done here, which is why we do want to be

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Speaker 3: cautious with our analysis in the early going. But what

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Speaker 3: does this mean for Hamas? What does this mean for Gaza?

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Speaker 3: At this point as everyone turns their attention to something

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Speaker 3: potentially more in the north, there's much to be resolved. Still,

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Speaker 3: We've broken down our temporary peer, they're still struggling to

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Speaker 3: get humanitarian aid into an area that you just qualified

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Speaker 3: as a humanitarian crisis.

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Speaker 1: What is happening right now in Gaza is horrific, and

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Speaker 1: we've just heard reporting just last week that there's been

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Speaker 1: evidence that polio it might be spreading within Gaza as well,

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Speaker 1: which should be terrifying not just for Palestinians, but for

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Speaker 1: the larger region as well. Speaking of regional escalation, this

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Speaker 1: would have been the moment that Kamala Harris and Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden in the administration could have potentially used to increase

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Speaker 1: humanitarian aid and access into Gaza to mitigate a larger escalation,

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Speaker 1: actually an epidemic in a sense. We haven't seen that yet,

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Speaker 1: but that needs to happen. There needs to be a

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Speaker 1: ceasefire in order for actual proper response to this potential

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Speaker 1: threat to Israel as well. But we have not seen

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Speaker 1: that yet because there's been a lot of other distractions

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Speaker 1: in the North but also within Israel itself, and so

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Speaker 1: it's unclear after Netanyahu's speech last week in Congress whether

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Speaker 1: there will be a ceasefire.

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Speaker 5: Deal well, and we know that negotiators will working on that.

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Speaker 5: In recent days they were meeting in Rome. We heard

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Speaker 5: from the Prime Minister's office net Yahoo's that is that

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Speaker 5: Hesba Hamas rather was changing some of its demands.

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Speaker 6: What do you think the real.

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Speaker 5: Prospect is of a ceasefire agreement temporary or otherwise being

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Speaker 5: reached in the near term when they have been trying

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Speaker 5: at this effort for months now.

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Speaker 1: Right, I mean, and we were seriously talking about a

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Speaker 1: ceasefire deal in February, and you know we're ten months

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Speaker 1: in at this point now. I think that it really

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Speaker 1: depends on how much pressure is applied by external elements

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Speaker 1: like the United States or Iran on the warring parties

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Speaker 1: at this point. There was a recent poll actually in

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Speaker 1: Israel that Israelis are primarily blaming Netsa Yahu more than

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Speaker 1: even Hamas for the lack of a hostage deal at

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Speaker 1: this point. There's a great deal of frustration with Netanyahu

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Speaker 1: on delivering the hostages at this point, and so that

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Speaker 1: could be the political pressure that's needed for Netanyahu to

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Speaker 1: get a plan. Also, Kamala Harris's speech last week was

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Speaker 1: very powerful in the sense that she made it known

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Speaker 1: that it was time for a deal to happen. And

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Speaker 1: so I think that if there is mounting pressure, especially

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Speaker 1: from the North now as well also within Israel, that

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Speaker 1: Israel might need to decide to take it down a

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Speaker 1: notch in other areas that could potentially be Gaza and

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Speaker 1: aim for some kind of ceasefire, but it might be

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Speaker 1: too early to tell.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's great to have you with us, Natasha Hall,

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Speaker 3: Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies

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Speaker 3: Middle East Program. A great moment to have you with

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Speaker 3: us here. Unfortunately, not the best news today. We'd like

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Speaker 3: to stay in touch with you on this as we

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Speaker 3: learn more.

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Speaker 7: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. Kayley, that

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Speaker 3: ceasefire is something that remains elusive, but something that we

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Speaker 3: will continue to talk about as long as it remains possible.

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Speaker 3: We've got an important conversation ahead with Senator Marshall Blackburn,

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Speaker 3: whos been awfully busy today.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron

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Speaker 2: Oto with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for joining.

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Speaker 3: You're on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Indeed,

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions in Washington where Kaylee.

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Speaker 3: Things are happening today. The House may be gone, but

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Speaker 3: the Senate has actually been busy. There are a couple

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Speaker 3: of important things taking place today. One of them brings

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Speaker 3: us back to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. An

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Speaker 3: important hearing today, a joint hearing the Senate Judiciary and

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Speaker 3: Homeland Security hearings with the new boss, the acting at

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Speaker 3: least boss, Acting Secret Service Director Ron Rowe. And also

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Speaker 3: an important vote, Kayley, as the Senate passes legislation.

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Speaker 4: To protect kids online.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about this quite a bit, for instance, with

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Speaker 3: Senator Marshall Blackburn. Unclear where this goes in the House,

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Speaker 3: but this is the first time really the lawmakers have

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Speaker 3: managed to get their arms around us.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and in a bipartisan way. The vote was ninety

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Speaker 5: one to three to approve this measure, which will essentially

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Speaker 5: impose sweeping safety and privacy requirements for children and teenagers

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Speaker 5: on social media platform So clearly a bipartisan effort. It

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Speaker 5: will now get sent to the House, where, of course,

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Speaker 5: they don't actually return to Washington until September ninth, and

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Speaker 5: we'll quickly be talking about a funding fight to avoid

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Speaker 5: a government shutdown after the fiscal year expires on September thirtieth.

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Speaker 5: So let's talk about the realistic prospects for the specific

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Speaker 5: legislation and bring in one of its supporters. As Joe mentioned,

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Speaker 5: the Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee is with us

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Speaker 5: now from Capitol Hill. Senator, thank you so much and

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Speaker 5: welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm sure you're

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Speaker 5: pleased with the results of this vote in the Senate today.

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Speaker 5: Have you had discussions with your colleagues in the House

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Speaker 5: about what its future may be in the other Chamber.

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Speaker 8: Yes, indeed, I have had those discussions. We have bipartisan

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Speaker 8: leaders in the House and broad bipartisan support. You have

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Speaker 8: Congresswoman Caster Congressman Billa Roccas, and they're the leads in

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Speaker 8: the House, and there is broad bipartisan support across the

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Speaker 8: body of the House for pushing this forward. I think

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Speaker 8: that you will see House leadership move it to the

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Speaker 8: floor for a vote, and we will get this to

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Speaker 8: the President's desk. The reason for that is there has

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Speaker 8: been an unbelievable coalition of parents and school principles and

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Speaker 8: educators and pediatricians and kids that have said there need

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Speaker 8: to be protections in the virtual space so that we

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Speaker 8: are not subjected to some of these algorithmic rabbit trails

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Speaker 8: that kids into up on when they are in the

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Speaker 8: virtual space.

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Speaker 9: And you know, it's so interesting.

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Speaker 8: Parents and kids alike have realized, when you're online, you

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Speaker 8: are the product. And the longer they keep you online,

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Speaker 8: the more scrolling you do, the richer that data is,

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Speaker 8: the more money they make. And that is one of

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Speaker 8: these social media companies. Even though they've known what they

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Speaker 8: were doing was addictive and was causing harm, they've.

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Speaker 9: Continued to do it. They have put profits before our.

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Speaker 3: Children, algorithmic rabbit trails.

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Speaker 4: I like that, Senator.

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Speaker 3: I remember distinctly on the thirty first of January, and

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Speaker 3: I know you do too, a remarkable moment in which

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Speaker 3: Mark Zuckerberg was invited to and he did stand up

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Speaker 3: in a judiciary committee hearing, turn around and apologize to

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Speaker 3: some of the folks who were there. Quote it's terrible,

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Speaker 3: he said, No one should have to go through the

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Speaker 3: things that your families have suffered. As Josh Holly pressed

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Speaker 3: him about whether he would apologize directly to parents, how

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Speaker 3: does this legislation.

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Speaker 4: Prevent other parents from ending up in that world?

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Speaker 8: Yes, what the legislation does is safety by design. This

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Speaker 8: is a product design piece of legislation. Just as we

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Speaker 8: have consumer protections in many products, this is putting those

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Speaker 8: protections in place in the virtual space. It requires a

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Speaker 8: duty of care. There's a toolbox for kids and parents.

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Speaker 8: It opens the algorithmic black boxes. It has a portal

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Speaker 8: to report bad actors in the virtual space, and then

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Speaker 8: these social media platforms have to block or remove those

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Speaker 8: bad actors. As we know, pedophiles, drug dealers, human traffickers,

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Speaker 8: sex traffickers, cyberbullies are all utilizing this space to harm children.

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Speaker 8: And in the physical world, you can't sell tobacco and alcohol,

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Speaker 8: our pornography to a child, you can't take them into

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Speaker 8: a strep club. And people would say, why are there

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Speaker 8: not protections in the virtual space, because our children are

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Speaker 8: exposed to this twenty four seven three sixty five, And

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Speaker 8: this is that first step, and we look forward to

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Speaker 8: the House quickly taking action and sending it to the

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Speaker 8: President for signature.

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Speaker 5: Senator, we've seen when it comes to social media companies

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Speaker 5: and the moderation of content, whomever that content is targeted towards,

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Speaker 5: has raised some First Amendment questions. We've seen this in

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Speaker 5: legal challenges that have gone all the way to the

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Speaker 5: Supreme Court in its most recent term. Do you expect

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Speaker 5: there to be any First Amendment issues with this piece

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Speaker 5: of legislation that these social media companies may use to

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Speaker 5: fight it.

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Speaker 8: This is not a speech bill, it is not a

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Speaker 8: content bill. This is a product design bill, and we

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Speaker 8: feel good about the placement. We have worked for over

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Speaker 8: three years with stakeholders. We have worked with parents, so

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Speaker 8: we've worked with physicians and pediatricians, and no, I feel

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Speaker 8: very good about where we have this legislation.

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Speaker 3: Senator Blackburn, we saw you in Milwaukee confronting the now

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Speaker 3: former Director of the Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, has resigned

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Speaker 3: her post following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. I

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Speaker 3: know you had some very stern words for her. Captured

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Speaker 3: on video, our viewers on Bloomberg TV can see you

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Speaker 3: essentially chasing her down the hall with a piece of

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Speaker 3: your mind. You had a chance today to talk with

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Speaker 3: at least her temporary replacement, the acting Secret Service Director,

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Speaker 3: Ron Roe, who was there with the deputy FBI director

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Speaker 3: talking about the cleanup here. Essentially, Senator, did you hear

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Speaker 3: what you needed to hear to believe to have faith

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Speaker 3: that the Secret Service can correct the mistakes that led

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Speaker 3: to this.

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Speaker 9: What we were today.

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Speaker 8: Director Roe described himself as a change agent. I think

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Speaker 8: we will see how he is going to execute that change.

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Speaker 9: I did ask him.

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Speaker 8: About the whistleblower email that was released and made public

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Speaker 8: today where the whistleblower says, you know, it's a cya.

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Speaker 8: That is the mission at the Secret Service. Everybody's practicing that.

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Speaker 8: And Director Rowe has been a career guy, he's been

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Speaker 8: there for twenty five years.

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Speaker 9: We will see if he is actually able to.

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Speaker 8: Do some change and restore some trust and some faith.

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Speaker 9: And I asked him if he was.

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Speaker 8: Going to allow these whistleblowers who are complaining about the

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Speaker 8: culture that has developed there at the Secret Service to

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Speaker 8: come forward and tell their story and to work with

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Speaker 8: us as we try to make certain the Secret Service

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Speaker 8: is able to do their job. They obviously did not

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Speaker 8: do their job in Butler, Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 9: And then also concerns with.

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Speaker 8: The FBI, and a deputy Director Abate was with us.

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Speaker 8: I questioned him on the social media accounts there had

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Speaker 8: been some confusion around that little bit of contradiction coming

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Speaker 8: from the FBI.

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Speaker 9: There's an account when Crooks.

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Speaker 8: Was younger, and then there is the gab account that

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Speaker 8: takes us up closer to the time that he carried

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Speaker 8: out the assassination attempt. But how in the world they

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Speaker 8: expect people to have trust in the FBI When former

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Speaker 8: President Trump was allowed by the Secret Service to take

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Speaker 8: the stage at six o'clock, when at five point fifty

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Speaker 8: one they knew they had a potential threat within range

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Speaker 8: of him in that outer perimeter. It is just unbelievable.

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Speaker 8: And how could they leave a water tower unattended and

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Speaker 8: the Secret Service has thirty one individuals former presidents, current president,

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Speaker 8: vice president, families, and some others that have received death

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Speaker 8: threat so total of thirty one people. These individuals need

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Speaker 8: to know that the Secret Service is there to protect

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Speaker 8: their lives and that they're going to be well tended.

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Speaker 9: And as you saw in.

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Speaker 8: The hearing, there is much agreement on a bipartisan basis

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Speaker 8: about how the Secret Service has moved forward in recent months.

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Speaker 5: Well, certainly, Senator, between that hearing and the votes today,

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Speaker 5: it's been a busy day in your chamber and your

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Speaker 5: work is not yet done for the week. We understand

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Speaker 5: on Thursday you'll have a chance to vote for a

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Speaker 5: tax deal that passed the House with a massive bipartisan majority,

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Speaker 5: in part tax breaks for businesses with an extension of

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Speaker 5: the child tax credit. Considering you were just talking to

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Speaker 5: us about protecting children in the online space, will you

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Speaker 5: pass it up the opportunity to potentially protect some of

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Speaker 5: them from pop.

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Speaker 8: And what we want to do is make certain that

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Speaker 8: we get this bill right. This bill has some serious flaws,

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Speaker 8: and I think what you will do is see I

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Speaker 8: don't think they'll get sixty votes to move forward with this.

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Speaker 8: There are issues with this bill, and let's get it right.

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Speaker 8: Let's make those tax cuts permanent with that R and

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Speaker 8: D tax credit, and then of course we've got opportunity

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Speaker 8: zones to new market credits, work opportunity credits. We are

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Speaker 8: far from ready to move forward with that bill.

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Speaker 4: Senator. We've only got about a minute left here.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to set you up to cut you off,

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Speaker 3: but I have to ask you about Israel's response to Hesbalah.

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Speaker 3: You said last weekend quote we must stand with Israel

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Speaker 3: following the attack that claim the lives of twelve young people.

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Speaker 3: We now have seen at least the initial response with

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Speaker 3: the rocket attack against an area in the suburbs of Beirut.

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Speaker 3: Is that appropriate from your view?

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Speaker 8: You know, I want to make certain that Israel has

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Speaker 8: what they need.

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Speaker 9: To protect themselves.

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Speaker 8: And we also know that Iran is the main sponsor

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Speaker 8: of terrorism globally. We know what they have done to

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Speaker 8: fund to equip to train Hamas Hezbila, the Huthi's isis

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Speaker 8: in Iraq, and I think it would be appropriate for

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Speaker 8: President Biden to step forward and put those sanctions President

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Speaker 8: Trump had on Iran.

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Speaker 9: Put the sanctions back on so they.

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Speaker 8: Are not able to sell their oil on the global stage.

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Speaker 3: Are you concerned that this is a proportionate attack though

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Speaker 3: or response, I should say, Senator, do you think Israel

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Speaker 3: should do more to make a point to stop Hezbalah.

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Speaker 8: I want to make certain that Israel can defend itself.

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Speaker 9: As you mentioned earlier, we've had a busy day.

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Speaker 8: I have not looked at at any of the detail

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Speaker 8: around the attack.

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Speaker 9: I learned about that from.

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Speaker 4: You all understood.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's kind of you to spend some time with us.

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Speaker 3: As always, Senator Marshall Blackburn, the Republican from Tennessee with

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Speaker 3: a big vote today, remarkable vote. As a matter of fact, Kiley,

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Speaker 3: it's not often when we see numbers like this these

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Speaker 3: days on Capitol Hill. We'll see what happens in the house.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 2: and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

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Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

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Speaker 2: on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: The ad wars begin.

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Speaker 3: We give you taste of the Kamala Harris ad that

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Speaker 3: just started running today, a biographical ad an attempt to

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Speaker 3: introduce her all over again to the nation. Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: wants to remind everyone of Kamala Harris's record in his

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Speaker 3: ad that's now up in six swing states. Here's a

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Speaker 3: taste of that one.

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Speaker 7: This is America's borders are, and she's failed us under Harris.

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Speaker 7: Over ten million illegally here a quarter of a million

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Speaker 7: Americans dead from petroar drutal migrant crimes. An isis now here.

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Speaker 5: So let's consider more the states in which this border

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Speaker 5: message may resonate most clearly, including states like Arizona state

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Speaker 5: that our next guest knows quite well. John Seaton is

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Speaker 5: here with us in our Washington, d C studio, who's

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Speaker 5: founding partner and CEO at Echo Canyon Consulting and a

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Speaker 5: Republican strategist. John, great to see you here in Washington.

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Speaker 5: Thank you for being with us. We of course want

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Speaker 5: to talk to you about the Arizona congressional primaries that

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Speaker 5: are happening today as well. But if we could first

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Speaker 5: begin with the landscape in what is a battleground state

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Speaker 5: with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Knowing that Harris does

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Speaker 5: have this perceived weakness on the border, how does that

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Speaker 5: play on the ground in Arizona.

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Speaker 10: It's a huge deal in Arizona. Every single survey that

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Speaker 10: you see, the number one issue not just for Republican

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Speaker 10: primary voters, but really for general election.

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Speaker 11: Voters as well is the border.

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Speaker 10: It's an out of control perceived as an out of

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Speaker 10: control crisis. It's top of mind for voters. Whether you

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Speaker 10: are in southern Arizona, right near the border in Yuma,

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Speaker 10: or up in Maricopa County where the bulk of the

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Speaker 10: vote is. Voters are very concerned with what's going on

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Speaker 10: down in the southern border.

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Speaker 3: How do voters in Arizona then associate Senator Kelly with

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Speaker 3: this issue because there's been a narrative that, hey, she

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Speaker 3: could pick Kelly and maybe pick up Arizona. He could

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Speaker 3: run defense for her on the border. Or are they

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Speaker 3: criticizing him on this issue? Where does he stand in

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Speaker 3: Arizona's minds?

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Speaker 2: So far?

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Speaker 10: I think Senator Kelly has actually done a very good

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Speaker 10: job kind of staying out of the border controversy, if

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Speaker 10: you will. I think part of it is having Democrats

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Speaker 10: in the White House. A lot of the attention is

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Speaker 10: focused on them. Senator Kelly happens to be the most

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Speaker 10: popular politician in Arizona right now. So as Kamala Harris

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Speaker 10: is taking a look at him, I definitely think he

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Speaker 10: could be seen as an asset to her ticket.

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Speaker 5: Well, if she were to choose him as her vice

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Speaker 5: presidential nominee, does that make Arizona borderline unwinnable for Trump?

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Speaker 6: Just how does that change the dynamics?

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Speaker 10: He still has a very very strong base in Arizona,

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Speaker 10: especially in some of the rural areas and even in

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Speaker 10: some of the exturban further away from Phoenix and Maricopa County.

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Speaker 10: He still has a huge amount of support. So I

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Speaker 10: expect Arizona to be very close. It'll be a battleground state,

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Speaker 10: especially if she does pick center Kelly.

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Speaker 3: Well, he has such a strong base that he's made

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Speaker 3: two endorsements in the same race. And I'm really confused

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Speaker 3: on this Arizona's eighth congressional district. We thought Blake Masters

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Speaker 3: had the Can you explain to me how you get

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Speaker 3: two endorsements in the same race. So basically Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: is saying, in the eighth congressional district, vote your conscience

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Speaker 3: because both options are great.

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Speaker 10: So in twenty twenty two, he endorsed both men in

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Speaker 10: separate races. Mister Hamiday in the Attorney general race and

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Speaker 10: in Blake Masters in the US Senate race. He got

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Speaker 10: in very early for Abe Homiday in this congressional district race.

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Speaker 10: But Blake Masters hasn't taken his foot off the gas,

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Speaker 10: not just touting his support of what he calls the

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Speaker 10: America First agenda, but also really strongly trying to court

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Speaker 10: Trump supporters and the former president in himself. And so

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Speaker 10: over the weekend, Donald Trump did say, hey, I still

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Speaker 10: think that that Abe Hammada is a great fighter for

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Speaker 10: America First.

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Speaker 11: But also take a look at Blake Masters.

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Speaker 10: So it'll be very interesting as we as the we

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Speaker 10: had towards seven o'clock in the polls close today.

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00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 5: Well, we should also consider that his vice presidential nominee

443
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 5: JD Vance had came out and endorsed Blake Masters prior

444
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 5: to this.

445
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 6: Peter Teal likes him as well.

446
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 5: We know of the Teal Vance relationship, so maybe want

447
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 5: to consider those dynamics as well. So all that said, John,

448
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 5: how do you think this goes down?

449
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 6: Who do you think comes out ahead?

450
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 10: Well, keep in mind in Arizona there's a huge number

451
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 10: of Peal who voted early, and so probably about as many.

452
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 11: As two thirds of the vote to make it deffinitely.

453
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 10: So it may be a little bit late. I'm sure

454
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 10: the Master's campaign wouldell you, boy, we really wish this

455
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 10: could have come out, you know, a week, two weeks earlier.

456
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 11: It's still not over.

457
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 10: I just took a look at the numbers before we

458
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 10: came on. About three thousand votes have been cast thus

459
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 10: far on election day in the eighth Congressional district. So

460
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 10: there's still you know, several thousand votes yet to be cast,

461
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 10: but a lot of those votes were already in the

462
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 10: bank prior to the endorsement.

463
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 3: This got really ugly and personal personal attacks some of

464
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 3: the images that Blake Masters put out of Amiday. What

465
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 3: happens a post election here and how damaged is the

466
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 3: loser's reputation going to be.

467
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 10: So it's a safe district to whoever wins this primary

468
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 10: will almost certainly be the next member of Congress in

469
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 10: Arizona eight. But I think we ever finished a second,

470
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 10: we'll have a lot of repair work to do. These

471
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 10: are both very young men with very very strong political

472
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 10: aspirations going forward. Only one of them is going to win,

473
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 10: so yeah, there'll probably be some repair work that's needed,

474
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,199
Speaker 10: and it'll be interesting to see how that you know,

475
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 10: what form that takes well.

476
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 5: And of course that's not the only race that bears

477
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 5: watching today. There's also the Senate Republican primary, in which

478
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 5: we've been really casting this race in the general as

479
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 5: Carrie Lake versus Reuben gayego. That is what everybody's expectation is.

480
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 5: But carry Lake still has to win this primary. By

481
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 5: what margin does she need to win it?

482
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 6: Though? When it's considered her to be so much so

483
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 6: the front runner.

484
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 10: I think most most folks like me are looking at

485
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 10: about the sixty percent number that if she is under

486
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 10: sixty that's probably a concern.

487
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 11: I expect her to eclipse it.

488
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,719
Speaker 10: But there's a sizeable chunk of report Publicans who are

489
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 10: still not fully comfortable with carry Lake. Many many more

490
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 10: are enthusiastic supporters. So I think if you look at

491
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 10: that sixty percent number, if she eclipses that number, I

492
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 10: think that's a reasonable bar for her to She's Claire.

493
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 3: Twelve though here right, she's in a pretty good position

494
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 3: going into the selection.

495
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: Is that right?

496
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,719
Speaker 10: She's in the primary, she's strongly favored to win. Her opponent,

497
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 10: Sheriff Mark Lamb very good guy, never really got any

498
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 10: kind of momentum behind him, so I expect her to

499
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 10: win comfortably.

500
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 11: That's one that should be called pretty people have.

501
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 3: Like what's the taste left in people's mouths in Arizona

502
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 3: after that brutal governor's race, which she I think still

503
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: claims was stolen.

504
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 10: Right, I think that Republicans never really left her again.

505
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 10: The majority of Republicans were with her in the general

506
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two, and whether or not they believe

507
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 10: that she actually won that race, they've stuck with her. Remember,

508
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,360
Speaker 10: she was also a very popular newscaster for over twenty

509
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 10: years in Arizona, so she has a strong following, and

510
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 10: I expect generally, as we say people are going to

511
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 10: put on their jersey's, Republicans are going to stick with her.

512
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,959
Speaker 10: Ruben Guiego is running a strong campaign but is a

513
00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 10: very very progressive member of Congress. So I expect at

514
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 10: the end of the day, we'll be hearing about the border.

515
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 10: We'll be hearing about inflation a lot more than we're

516
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 10: hearing about whether or not Carrie Lake actually one in

517
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two.

518
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 5: In well, something we've been talking about much more widely

519
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 5: in states other than Arizona, but certainly inclusive of Arizona

520
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 5: as well. Is now that it's Kamala Harris who is

521
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 5: going to be leading the Democratic ticket, what tail effects

522
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 5: that may have down the ballot?

523
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 6: Do the odds look.

524
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 5: Better for Reuben Diego than they would have otherwise if

525
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 5: it was still Joe Biden who was the Democratic nominee.

526
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 10: What I think you're seeing in Arizona and really in

527
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 10: a lot of other swing states, there's just a lot

528
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 10: more enthusiasm from Democrats more recently. I think some of

529
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 10: that may be that this is still very new. It's

530
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 10: just less than two weeks old since Kamala Harris became

531
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 10: the de facto nominee. But I really think that you're

532
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 10: seeing more enthusiasm, and while every vote still only counts

533
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 10: the same, it does mean that these are people maybe

534
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 10: more likely to go knock on doors, make phone calls,

535
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 10: pounding yard science, things of that nature, and in a

536
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 10: close race, every little bit like that makes a difference.

537
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 3: As a Republican, we were talking to you in Milwaukee

538
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 3: about the pick of JD Evans. Do you care about

539
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 3: who Kamala Harris picks for running me?

540
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,160
Speaker 10: I think it's a big story for a few days.

541
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 10: Somebody who is going to be an articulate kind of

542
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,239
Speaker 10: messenger for your vision as as a nominee, someone who

543
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 10: maybe can be helpful in some of those swing states,

544
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 10: someone who voters believe can actually do the job of

545
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 10: president if God forbid, anything were to happen to the president.

546
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 10: And so I think that's what she'll be looking at.

547
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 10: Maybe marginal different if a Mark Kelly gets picked or

548
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 10: a Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania. But end of the day,

549
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 10: I think most voters really look at who's at the

550
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 10: top of the ticket.

551
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 3: He's the founding partner CEO at Echo Canyon Consulting, long

552
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 3: time Republican strategist John Seaton with us here at the table.

553
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 3: Great to pick your brain for a little while. John,

554
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us on Arizona primary.

555
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 2: Dano Less.

556
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 3: I guess we'll be picking through results around this time tomorrow.

557
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 6: Indeed, we will.

558
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 5: Hard to believe we're still in the middle of primary season,

559
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 5: but I guess everything has been constantly changing in this

560
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 5: entire electoral cycle and congressional races or no exception.

561
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 3: Well, we'll see if the Trump endorsed candidate wins or

562
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 3: the Trump Lars candidate that will be the contest tonight.

563
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 4: Literally is going to make our way through this.

564
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 5: He basically get commend his record on endorsements either way race.

565
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: He's a winner either way. Amazingly, I'm Joe Matthew alongside

566
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 3: Kaylee Lines. It's the fastest show in Politics on Bloomberg

567
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Will assemble our panel next, Rick Davis

568
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,479
Speaker 3: and Geenie Shanzano on the way with the latest on

569
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 3: the campaign.

570
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg.

571
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

572
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: Just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

573
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: enroud Oro with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also

574
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

575
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

576
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 3: As the ad wars begin, We've been waiting for this.

577
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 3: We told you about the time that had been reserved.

578
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 3: We also talked about the fact that the Comala Harris

579
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 3: campaign needed to start making ads. They've had cameras following

580
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 3: her at rallies. They're struggling to identify the candidate before

581
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 3: Donald Trump can and look at this. Donald Trump today

582
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 3: up with his first ad, the first twelve million dollar

583
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 3: ad flight targeting Harris up in six swing states, describing

584
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 3: her as failed, weak, and dangerously liberal.

585
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 4: Here's a taste.

586
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 7: This is America's borders are and she's failed US under Harris,

587
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 7: over ten million illegally. Here a quarter of a million

588
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 7: Americans dead from petrolar, brutal migrant crimes. Hears and isis

589
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 7: now here.

590
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 3: Isis even invoked in this first ad. As we assembled

591
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 3: our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are with us

592
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Gloves are off. I guess Rick Donald

593
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 3: Trump said that he was not going to start playing

594
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: nice because the media asked him to. Is this an

595
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 3: effective ad to start things off?

596
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 9: Yeah.

597
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 12: I think it's sort of starting to frame her. He's

598
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 12: picking his favorite topic immigration. I think that they want

599
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 12: to make sure that she pays a price for the

600
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 12: borders are. There's enough evidence within the Biden administration that

601
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 12: this is something she had some responsibility for. You can

602
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 12: quibble over how much, but the bottom line is he's

603
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 12: going to make her pay. And you know, I think

604
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 12: the tagline I don't understand this interview with Lester Holt

605
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 12: where she made a mistake you know, and she resisted

606
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 12: talking about going to the border and compared it to well,

607
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 12: I hadn't been to Europe yet either.

608
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 11: I mean, like, oh my god, that was awful.

609
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 12: So yeah, I think this is a pretty classic negative

610
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 12: ad with a decent little buy, not a big one,

611
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 12: but certainly an effort to try and get her defined

612
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 12: in these targeted swing states.

613
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 3: Interesting, Genie, I'd love your take on this, because there

614
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 3: are some things we did not hear about.

615
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 4: There was no.

616
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 3: Reference to her as a DEI higher being, dumb as

617
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 3: a rock, references to her ethnic background, or allegations that

618
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: she covered up Joe Biden's age, all of which we

619
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 3: have heard referenced from this campaign.

620
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 4: Is this effective?

621
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 9: You know?

622
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 13: I think the Trump campaign is still trying to find

623
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 13: his footing on how to go how to go out

624
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 13: against Kamala Harris. I mean, you even had people like

625
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 13: Carl Rove over the weekend saying that he had taken

626
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 13: he being Trump a subordinate position to Kamala Harris. And

627
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 13: that's obviously not where Trump wants to be in no

628
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 13: way to run a campaign. So this ad by is

629
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 13: really their first attempt to try to define her. If

630
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 13: you accept his rallies and his interviews even last night

631
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 13: on Fox News where he did use some really difficult

632
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 13: language against her in terms of her intellect and other things,

633
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 13: which is truly unfortunate. But I think that the campaign

634
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 13: itself is looking at people like Dave McCormick, who put

635
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 13: that ad out first and saying she's vulnerable on these issues,

636
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 13: stances she took during the twenty twenty primary where all

637
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 13: Democrats except Joe Biden were running to the far left.

638
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 13: Going to try to use the plentiful amount of video

639
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 13: they have, and Rick just mentioned one of the clips

640
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 13: against her, and yeah, that can be effective in the

641
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 13: swing states. So the issue for Kamala Harris, and we

642
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 13: know that they are doing this today, is they've got

643
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 13: to get out there with their own big media ad byad,

644
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 13: and they have to get out there defining her and

645
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 13: of course going on the offensive against Trump. She's been

646
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 13: doing that with earned media. They have to do that

647
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 13: with paid media as well.

648
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 3: By the way, if you're listening to us on the radio,

649
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 3: that ad opens while it's talking about failed, weak, dangerously

650
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 3: liberal Kamala Harris with her dancing, it's video of her

651
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 3: dancing at the event they held marking the fiftieth anniversary

652
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 3: of hip hop Rick, what's going on in the basement

653
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 3: at the Trump campaign with the young twenty somethings who

654
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 3: have been tasked with sifting through years of tape to

655
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 3: find videos like that to make ads about Kamala Harris.

656
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 2: Well, let's not kid ourselves.

657
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 12: They've already got a ream of that stuff that they've

658
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 12: been working on all year. Even if Joe Biden we're

659
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 12: still running for president, they'd be running ads like this.

660
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 12: So it's not a huge departure from the regular But

661
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 12: their oppo guys are really trying to pinpoint what the

662
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,879
Speaker 12: weaknesses are and they're going to do an issue by

663
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 12: issue right and they're going to look at the economy.

664
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 12: I would highly expect Trump to roll out a series

665
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 12: of hit pieces on the economy. And this is the

666
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 12: advantage the Trump campaign has. They don't have to run

667
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 12: a single ad about Donald Trump. America has made up

668
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 12: their mind about Donald Trump. They can put all their firepower,

669
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 12: all their money, all their social against Vice President Harris.

670
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 12: And Harris has a dual obligation. She has to introduce

671
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 12: herself to the American public quickly, but she also has

672
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 12: to contrast that with Donald Trump. And that's really the

673
00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 12: theme of her ad. And I would say a good

674
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 12: start by her too. Four times the amount of money

675
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 12: being spent to buy her to define herself, then by

676
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 12: Donald Trump to define her so fascinating.

677
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 3: Here into Rick's point, We've got the two ads today,

678
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,280
Speaker 3: the new ad from Trump, yes, the new ad from Harris.

679
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 3: And guess what they're both about. Kamala Harris. Here's the

680
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:23,760
Speaker 3: ad from the Harris campaign.

681
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:29,439
Speaker 14: The one thing Kamala Harris has always been fearless. As

682
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:33,359
Speaker 14: a prosecutor, she put murderers and abusers behind bars. As

683
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 14: California's Attorney general, she went after the big banks and

684
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 14: won twenty billion dollars for homeowners, and as Vice president,

685
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 14: she took on the big drug companies to cap the

686
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 14: cost of insulin for seniors.

687
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 3: If you are again with us on Bloomberg Radio, that

688
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 3: ad opens with an image video of Kamala Harris striding

689
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 3: across the tarmac to Air Force one, with the sunrise

690
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 3: behind the jet night and day. I might suggest, Genie,

691
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: is it effective?

692
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 15: I do think it's a good ad.

693
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 13: It plays on what she has been talking about in

694
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 13: the week she's been on the campaign trail. At the

695
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 13: top of the ticket, which is her background as a prosecutor,

696
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 13: taking on the big banks, taking on corporate America, protecting seniors,

697
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 13: protecting people's ability to access healthcare. So I do think

698
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 13: it's an important and a good ad to go out

699
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 13: there with. And I would just add I think the

700
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 13: Trump team is going to have to be very careful

701
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,280
Speaker 13: with some of these clips they're showing of Kamala Harris.

702
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 13: The one of her dancing is one that the folks,

703
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 13: the younger folks on social media quite like bitz gets

704
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 13: back to how she has been dominating in that space

705
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 13: in a way Donald Trump usually does. So they have

706
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 13: to be careful not to put things out that actually

707
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,439
Speaker 13: play well for her in that social media space where

708
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 13: she has had a good run of it for the

709
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 13: last seven days.

710
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 3: All right, So Rick Jeanie is reminding us of the

711
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 3: fact that she's around young people a lot at Ionia University,

712
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 3: and she's right. I've got a teenager living in my

713
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 3: house and I keep seeing dad looking. They hold up

714
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 3: the phone and it's another Instagram video of Kamala Harris dancing,

715
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 3: or it's a coconut tree or something like this. How

716
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 3: do you run against that type of organic earned media.

717
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 9: Yeah.

718
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 12: Look, I think you have to play into it, right,

719
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 12: I mean, if I were her, I'd put out a

720
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 12: video clip on social comparing her dance moves to Donald Trump's.

721
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 12: I mean, we've seen Donald Trump dancing a lot lately,

722
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 12: and oh my god, would you rather have hip hop?

723
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 4: Or Yeah?

724
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 12: I don't know what that's called. So you know, look,

725
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 12: I think she's got to have fun with it. I Mean,

726
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 12: one of the things I'm impressed with is there a

727
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 12: significant tone change from the sort of dour, siious, weighty

728
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 12: Joe Biden message to the sort of hey, I'm having

729
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 12: fun out here. This is going to be a great campaign.

730
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:02,439
Speaker 12: Happy Warrior came out of the last weekend, and that's

731
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 12: called Kamala Harris. So my guess is that's gonna result

732
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 12: in a lot of good social for the campaign to

733
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 12: play with. And if that's their attitude, they should have

734
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 12: fun with it.

735
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:13,919
Speaker 4: Well.

736
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 3: Is it possible for Donald Trump to compete with that

737
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 3: type of existence on social media? He's got his own

738
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 3: social media company, Genie.

739
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:22,919
Speaker 15: Yeah, he does.

740
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 13: Of course, not as many people are looking at that

741
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 13: as are looking at x and Instagram and some of

742
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:28,800
Speaker 13: the others.

743
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 15: But yeah, I mean, I agree, she's got what is it? Riz?

744
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 15: Is that what they call it?

745
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 13: And it's been out there and it's been effective with

746
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 13: these young folks, so you know what, they got to

747
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 13: plan that. And of course this offers up the opportunity

748
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 13: for Democrats to talk about age for once in this

749
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 13: campaign and to do it effectively against Donald Trump.

750
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 3: I'm surprised, actually we haven't heard more about that. You

751
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 3: were going to need a glossary here on the show

752
00:38:56,719 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 3: for somewhat older people. Do you want to define RIZ

753
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 3: for everybody? Genie to go to Urban Dictionary here.

754
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 15: I'm gonna do it, and you correct me if I'm wrong.

755
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 4: No, you're gonna is that right?

756
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:11,919
Speaker 1: Yeah?

757
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: I think I think that's a that's very effective. But

758
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,479
Speaker 3: define it in one word. As a matter of fact,

759
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,479
Speaker 3: Rick does Kamala Harris need to start turning the age

760
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 3: issue into something real against Donald Trump.

761
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,720
Speaker 12: By the way, thank you very much for not asking

762
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 12: me about RIZ, because I would have said short for

763
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 12: the Ritz. Carlton, I don't know, I'm but now we

764
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 12: all know. Look, I think I think right now the

765
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 12: biggest thing is going to happen in the campaign. They've

766
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:43,479
Speaker 12: they've got the bioad out for for Harris right now,

767
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 12: that's going to go into these same targeted states. By

768
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 12: the way, just to note the file, nobody's talking about

769
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 12: expanding the map anymore. Do you notice where Donald Trump

770
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,439
Speaker 12: bought these huh adds? You know, his little twelve million

771
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 12: dollars by all in the six targeted states. So we're

772
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 12: not talking about Virginia anymore. We're not talking about New

773
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 12: Hampshire anymore, We're not talking about Minnesota anymore. This is

774
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:07,439
Speaker 12: a different campaign, back to the future, and I think

775
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 12: that the next big foot to drop is a week

776
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 12: from now, Kamala Harris is going to launch a tour

777
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 12: around these same targeted states with her VP running end

778
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 12: of the convention in Chicago the week afterwards. So I

779
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 12: think we're we're talking a lot about paid media today,

780
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 12: but the earned media machine that is about to unfold

781
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 12: is going to be the first time we've actually sent

782
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 12: an effort toward earned media by Democrats.

783
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 3: Roy Cooper's taking his name out here, Genie. I don't

784
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: know where you are in the veepstakes, but Bill Crystal

785
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 3: was with us earlier this hour, and based on his

786
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 3: view here and and the framing that people have given

787
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 3: certain candidates. He's got his own three Buddha j Edge,

788
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 3: Whitmer who says she doesn't want it in Shapiro. So

789
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 3: this is all about Pennsylvania, now, right, That's that's really.

790
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 15: What it's looking like.

791
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 13: And I think that speaks to the fact what Rick

792
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 13: was just talking about about the fact that these are

793
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 13: these states and in some ways the race is just

794
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 13: gotten back to where it was earlier on with a

795
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 13: neck and neck race. I was struck by the fact

796
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 13: that somebody said that the polls taken since Joe Biden

797
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 13: dropped out, they now have an average of Donald Trump

798
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 13: up by less than one percent. It's something like nine

799
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 13: tenths of a percent. And that just tells you this

800
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 13: thing is on a razor's edge. And so I think

801
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 13: she does need to think about locking up one of

802
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:30,399
Speaker 13: these swing states, you know. So that really does make

803
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 13: you look at a state like Pennsylvania that.

804
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 15: Said she isn't in Georgia today.

805
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 13: Who knows if she chose, you know, the governor of Minnesota,

806
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 13: it might, you know, say something else.

807
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 15: But I do think that those three look the most likely.

808
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

809
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 2: us Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and

810
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 2: then Droudoto where the Bloomberg Business at Listen on demand

811
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

812
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here

813
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio, and of course

814
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 3: on YouTube, where you can find us live right now

815
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 3: search Bloomberg Global News.

816
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 4: We'll meet you here in the studio.

817
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 3: Our live feed is running all day from Washington and

818
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 3: from New York. And so here we go again with

819
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 3: our eyes on the campaign trail. The headline on the

820
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 3: terminal Harris expands push to compete with Trump in swing states.

821
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:33,280
Speaker 3: She's expanding the map, we're told as this honeymoon seems

822
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 3: to only get sweeter. But she doesn't even have a

823
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 3: running mate yet. And I do find it interesting that

824
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 3: we're talking more about the deep steaks on both sides

825
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 3: than we are the people at the top of the ticket.

826
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris will be in Georgia a little bit later.

827
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 3: We're going to talk about that as we zero in

828
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 3: on a campaign here through the eyes of someone who

829
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: has a very different view than i'd say most longtime

830
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 3: conservative Republicans that would be Bill Crystal, editor at large

831
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,240
Speaker 3: and co author of Morning Shots, the newsletter on the Bulwark,

832
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 3: and director of Defending Democracy Together. You know him from

833
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,319
Speaker 3: the Weekly Standard. You listen to him for all those

834
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 3: years on ABC this Week on Sunday Morning. And never Trumper,

835
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 3: who maybe would describe, let's ask him, a party that

836
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 3: has left him, not the other way around. Bill Crystal, Welcome,

837
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 3: It's good to see you.

838
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 16: Good to see you.

839
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 3: Ja bring our audience up to date on where you're

840
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 3: at right now because you're not supporting Trump. You're probably

841
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 3: the most famous never Trumper who's going to walk into

842
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 3: this studio. Are you supporting Kamala Harris?

843
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 17: I am. I would have supported Joe Biden. I supported

844
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 17: Biden in twenty twenty. Yeah, I can't support Trump for

845
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 17: various reasons and which a fair number of other people

846
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 17: share with me, I think, and so I'm sort of

847
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 17: on the right side of the Democratic Party. I suppose

848
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 17: these days, ex Republican, we'll see what happens to the

849
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 17: Democrats and how comfortable one feels there.

850
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 16: Maybe they'll be a third party.

851
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 3: But anyway, do you think of yourself as an ex Republican?

852
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:56,959
Speaker 16: I do now, just because Trump is so thoroughly taken

853
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,280
Speaker 16: over the Republican Party. Yeah, in the first couple of years.

854
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 17: Joe, in twenty seventeen eighteen, I was sort of fighting

855
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 17: within the Republican Party and I thought, maybe he'd become

856
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 17: a four year thing. Right, Trump will be one term president.

857
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 17: It's kind of an unfortunate parenthesis in the history of

858
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 17: the party. And then we go back to something like

859
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 17: what had been you know, not exactly of course, but

860
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 17: something like it. But what became clear in twenty nineteen

861
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 17: twenty was how powerfully was then January sixth happened. Yeah,

862
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 17: I mean he was powerfully gotta be elected. He lost

863
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 17: pretty close grace, and then January six happened. I thought, Okay,

864
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 17: maybe now we get the liberation of the Republican Party

865
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 17: from Trump. But for me, that was the decisive moment.

866
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 17: A week later, all but ten House Republicans vote against

867
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 17: impeaching him. After January second, a week later, then the Senate,

868
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 17: only seven Republicans vote to impeach Dandy steamwrolls the rest

869
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 17: of his opponents. In twenty twenty three, and it's Trump's

870
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:44,800
Speaker 17: party and that's not my party.

871
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 3: Well, that's that's where we start our conversation, and in

872
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 3: a race that has been turned upside down. We were

873
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 3: in Milwaukee just a couple of weeks ago for what

874
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,800
Speaker 3: was billed as a unity convention, only to leave with

875
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 3: memories of Hulk Hogan and Dana White in our heads

876
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 3: and trying to figure out what we're what we're running

877
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 3: into here in Chicago. But this moment that we're in

878
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 3: right now is historic. Two hundred million dollars in a

879
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 3: week that the turn in favorable unfavorables. Have you ever

880
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:11,880
Speaker 3: seen anything like it?

881
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 16: It's pretty amazing, isn't it.

882
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 17: We had this very stable race, literally a replay of

883
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 17: twenty twenty Biden and Trump that as has never happened

884
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 17: in American politics, not.

885
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,879
Speaker 16: To see eighteen eighty eighty eight, I think, or something

886
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 16: like that.

887
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 17: And suddenly we're gonna have the current president running against

888
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 17: the ex president. If you looked at the polls, you

889
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 17: watched them closely over February March April May plus.

890
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 16: One percent, one percent, no change basically, and why would

891
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 16: they be changed? Everyone do Biden? Everyone dow Trump? You're

892
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 16: gonna change your mind over something new about them? Unlikely? Right, Suddenly,

893
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 16: in a very unusual, really unprecedented.

894
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 17: I guess you'd have to say, right moment Biden has

895
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 17: that horrible debate performance, people realize. And I was arguing

896
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 17: this for a year and a half, so I will

897
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 17: say on this one, I think I was right an

898
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 17: unusual moment in American politics that he should not have

899
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 17: run again. It was wise of him, sort of a

900
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 17: responsible rely but anyway to get out after three weeks

901
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 17: of one yelling at him to get out, and suddenly

902
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,839
Speaker 17: we have Harris as and then the quick coalescing behind

903
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 17: Vice President Harris, and there she is, the nominee, didn't

904
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,799
Speaker 17: go through a single primary, but the consensus nominee of the.

905
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,760
Speaker 16: Party, and a party that is very relieved.

906
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 17: I'm really struck by that when I talked to Democrats,

907
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 17: so relieved to have the burden frankly of Joe Biden's age.

908
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 17: And they love but they like Biden, and they respect Biden.

909
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 17: They think he's been a good president. And I do too, incidentally,

910
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 17: but he shouldn't have run again. And now he's not

911
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 17: running again, so suddenly it's a new race with Harris.

912
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 3: It's a new race with Harris, and as I mentioned,

913
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 3: it's been a lucrative turn for her certainly when it

914
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 3: comes to polling as well. And we still have a

915
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 3: lot to learn, I know, with a lot of posters

916
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 3: in the field right now. But next comes the choice

917
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 3: of a running mate. And I'm fascinated by some of

918
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 3: what you've been writing on this, as you say you

919
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 3: have an easier time as a vice presidential pick of

920
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 3: political elites.

921
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,800
Speaker 4: The media and voters are already.

922
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 3: Accustomed to thinking of you as among the limited group

923
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 3: of people who could conceivably be and when you look

924
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 3: at the so called shortlist, that makes it a lot

925
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:03,879
Speaker 3: shorter in your eyes.

926
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 17: Yeah, I mean you can make a case for taking

927
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 17: someone who hasn't been on, that hasn't run already or

928
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 17: been close to running already. But if you look at those,

929
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 17: say successful vice presidential candidates politically successful in the campaign.

930
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 17: Bush helped Reagan in nineteen eighty. I think Gore helped

931
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 17: Clinton in nineteen ninety two. Biden probably helped Obama president

932
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 17: Obama in two thousand and eight, you know, experience and

933
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 17: so forth. Harris probably helped Biden in twenty They had

934
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 17: all run for president, and I don't think that's an acces.

935
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 17: I mean, fear that had run that year lost to

936
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 17: the nominee and the other Gore had run four years before.

937
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 16: And I don't think that's an accident. I mean, the

938
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 16: presidential stage is so much.

939
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,839
Speaker 17: Bigger, so much tougher, frankly than running at the state

940
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 17: level or running for a senate seed, often in a

941
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 17: state that's kind of favorable to your party anyway, And

942
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 17: I think those people were better vice presidential candidates, which

943
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 17: they'd gone through the vetting, the media was familiar with them.

944
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 17: Voters sort of thought, Okay, he lost or she lost

945
00:47:57,360 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 17: for the president they've seen, but yeah, they've been on

946
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 17: the on the big stage debates.

947
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:02,760
Speaker 16: And presidential debates.

948
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 17: It's hard to take someone my former boss, Dan Quail,

949
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 17: a good guy, unfairly well eyed. I will defend him,

950
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,839
Speaker 17: a good vice president. But still they picked him out

951
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 17: of semi obscurity.

952
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 16: You'd say, but he was a senator.

953
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 14: He was not.

954
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 16: But he had no one and he hadn't been on the.

955
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 17: List of possible presidential candidates or real fesidential candidates, and

956
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,240
Speaker 17: suddenly they pick him out of that obscure semi obscurity

957
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 17: and throw him in the spotlight. He makes one or

958
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,279
Speaker 17: two mistakes, but also the campaign made mistakes about him.

959
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 17: They didn't know everything about him. Some issue from his

960
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:32,399
Speaker 17: past pops up. This is the risk of taking someone

961
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 17: who's not well known. So in the Democratic side, Pete

962
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 17: Pooter Judges run for president did a very good job

963
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 17: doing so I think you got to put him on

964
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,240
Speaker 17: the short list. Some people who think it's too risky

965
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 17: for take him for various reasons. And I do think

966
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 17: Governor Shapiro and Whitmer have been prominent enough and talked

967
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,799
Speaker 17: about for president enough, and they would have run if

968
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 17: Biden steps aside, I think a year ago.

969
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 3: So I get put them an interesting part of the calculus.

970
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 16: Yeah, and people familiar with them if they looked at

971
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 16: their records. So I think they're sort of in.

972
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 3: That tier of boothag Edge Whitmer, Shapiro.

973
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 4: That's your threat for me.

974
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 16: I think that counts for a lot.

975
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 17: And then if you take those three and if you

976
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 17: assume they don't want to do boodha jogh for various reasons, Yeah,

977
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 17: I mean Shapiro being the governor, a very popular governor

978
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 17: of v key swing state.

979
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 4: You need to put the sixty.

980
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:15,919
Speaker 17: One percent approval rating pretty arts to make case against

981
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,920
Speaker 17: Shapiro's But you know, then there's the Governor, Wallace as

982
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 17: a president and other people, Senator Kelly, and then there

983
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 17: are little boomlets for all these people.

984
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 3: Does Senator Kelly bring any kind of a foil when

985
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 3: it comes to the border. Could he defend her on

986
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 3: the issue that appears to be the weakest for Kamala Harris?

987
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 16: Maybe, but I mean, she really has to defend herself

988
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 16: on that.

989
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 17: And you mentioned at the beginning of the show the

990
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 17: very important thing, the massive average wave of advertising from

991
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 17: the Republicans counteracted. I was a little worried, honestly, as

992
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 17: someone who's for Harris, that they wouldn't counteractive, but they

993
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 17: seem to have enough money to go up against it.

994
00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:50,959
Speaker 17: Now that initial defining advertising so important for kendidate who's

995
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,359
Speaker 17: not well known. We were saying before Biden and Trump,

996
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 17: you weren't going to define them in some new way. Really, right,

997
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 17: you can do undred million dollars of as you'd move

998
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 17: them half a percentage point Harris. For all that she's

999
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 17: been vice president for three and a half years, people

1000
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:04,919
Speaker 17: don't have settled views on her. They have a vague

1001
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 17: sense of who she was it is, and so if

1002
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 17: the Republicans could succeed in defining her, you know, San

1003
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 17: Francisco Liberal Week on the Border, Week on crime. They

1004
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:17,279
Speaker 17: could do to her, the Republicans what Republicans have done

1005
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 17: in the past to Mike Jucacus, to John Kerry, you know,

1006
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 17: with Obama did to Romdi.

1007
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 16: To find the challenger early, but.

1008
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 17: Early here is three weeks in July and August, because

1009
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 17: it's such a crazy situation where Harris just became the

1010
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 17: nominating Normally that happens, as you know what Mark J.

1011
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:33,360
Speaker 16: A fill May June, you.

1012
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 17: Know, but defining the challenger, the less well known candidate,

1013
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 17: is so important, and the Harris people are up with

1014
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 17: a counter definition of it.

1015
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 16: Oh, here's who Kamala Harris is tough prosecutor, Time for change,

1016
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:45,399
Speaker 16: generational right.

1017
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 17: So it'd be very interesting to see those ads are

1018
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 17: very important over the next week, week or two, much

1019
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 17: more than usual, I would say.

1020
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:52,279
Speaker 16: And I think the VP pick is important because it

1021
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 16: helps define her as well. Sure, definitely.

1022
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 3: So we're on fast forward here and she doesn't have

1023
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:58,399
Speaker 3: a lot of time to do it. To your point,

1024
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:00,879
Speaker 3: in terms of the ad wars. By the way, it's

1025
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 3: really interesting what we have here because the Trump campaign's

1026
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,399
Speaker 3: first twelve million dollar flight is up here, failed, weak,

1027
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 3: dangerously liberal. That's how they're characterizing Kamala Harris. To your point,

1028
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 3: Harris campaign's reserving fifty million dollars in ads, So we're

1029
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 3: about to get a barrage. I want to ask you though,

1030
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,879
Speaker 3: about not the pre produced messaging, but what we're hearing

1031
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 3: on the stump. And I'll start with Kamala Harris because

1032
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 3: we've been through the DEI stuff and the dumb as

1033
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 3: a rock and some of the things that Donald Trump

1034
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 3: has been the insults he's lobbed her way, Democrats have

1035
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 3: settled on weird.

1036
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 4: Listen to Kamala Harris on the campaign trail this week.

1037
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:39,279
Speaker 10: You may have noticed Donald Trump has been resorting to

1038
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 10: some wild lies about my record and some of what

1039
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 10: he and his running big are saying.

1040
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 11: Well, it's just plain weird.

1041
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:54,360
Speaker 3: You put that in, you put it in the weird box.

1042
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 3: We're hearing weird from Tim Walls from others. That's apparently

1043
00:51:57,719 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 3: going to be the refrain.

1044
00:51:59,120 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 14: Now.

1045
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 3: I was asking if that's the new deplorable? So who

1046
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 3: are we insulting here?

1047
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 16: Yeah, I think it's a little double edged. I think

1048
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:06,720
Speaker 16: with vance.

1049
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 17: So it's a good example centally picking someone who isn't

1050
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 17: known naturally, Yeah, right, If you're taking Tim Scott or

1051
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 17: even Bergham, they're not that well known, but they were

1052
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,959
Speaker 17: in the presidential debates. I think voters would have been okay, fine,

1053
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 17: you know, normal VP pick you take Advances thirty nine

1054
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 17: years old, who wasn't in the presidential field at all.

1055
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 17: Suddenly you discover various clips of him saying things in

1056
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 17: the past, and they are kind of weird. So I

1057
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 17: think the weird thing works for Vance, making it the

1058
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 17: whole theme of your criticism of Trump and Advance I'm

1059
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 17: a little.

1060
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 4: Do are you calling the voters weird?

1061
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 1: Though?

1062
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 16: Well, that's right. You gotta be careful.

1063
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:36,359
Speaker 17: You got to win over some x Trump voters, right,

1064
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:39,360
Speaker 17: that's what Republican voters against Trump. This organization I'm involved

1065
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 17: in is done, and you don't want to insult them,

1066
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 17: and you want to say, look, we understand why you

1067
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 17: might have been unhappy with the Democrats for some reasons,

1068
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 17: but Trump, you shouldn't go for Trump. And incidentally, I

1069
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 17: think Harris has to introduced herself. I don't think they

1070
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 17: all know. Everyone knows Trump. Everyone hasn't offended about Trump.

1071
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:57,360
Speaker 17: People are uncertain about, Well, what's up with Harris? Is

1072
00:52:57,400 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 17: she a California Liberal? Did you mess up on the border?

1073
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,959
Speaker 16: Is that an unfair attack? Is she twenty twenty?

1074
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 17: She wasn't a great candidate twenty nineteen, she got out

1075
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 17: really before the votes were cast.

1076
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty, well, so what are you hearing from

1077
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 3: conservative circles, and I mean specifically national security conservative circles,

1078
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 3: people who are pro Ukraine, people who are worried about

1079
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 3: the stand that she might take on Israel. Is that

1080
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 3: what could hold her back from taking those persuadable potential

1081
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:24,080
Speaker 3: Trump voters into her full.

1082
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 17: I mean, you never know, right, I mean, I think

1083
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 17: Israel's complicated cross cutting. I would say Ukraine, on the

1084
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 17: other hand, is a huge advantage for her. The kind

1085
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:35,440
Speaker 17: of people who are not so fond of Trump, ex

1086
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:37,720
Speaker 17: Republicans or Conservatives.

1087
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 16: Are very pro Ugrade. If it meant anything to be a.

1088
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 17: Republican, to be a Bush McCain, Romney, Reagan Republican who

1089
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 17: was to support a democratic country fighting a brutal dictatorial

1090
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 17: invader next door and helping them with arms and not

1091
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 17: even with troops. So it's good and so I think

1092
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 17: she can use Ukraine to help bring a lot of

1093
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 17: people who served in the Reagan and Bush administrations on board,

1094
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 17: and a lot of voters who don't regret voting for

1095
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:03,120
Speaker 17: Reagan and Bush and McCain and.

1096
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 16: Say, you know what, Harris is closer to her to

1097
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 16: them on this fundamental issue.

1098
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,280
Speaker 17: And so if she can beat back the liberal stuff

1099
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,760
Speaker 17: and be a little as Biden was, I'd say, centrist

1100
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 17: on foreign policy, kind of hawkish for a Democrat maybe,

1101
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 17: which I think she is, and then you know, prosecute

1102
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 17: the case against Trump in some obvious ways.

1103
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 16: I think she has a pretty reasonable chance.

1104
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 3: Well, we're talking about what you're hearing. There's still a

1105
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 3: conversation about JD. Vance and why we went there. And

1106
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 3: I know that Don Junior had a big influence. I

1107
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:35,759
Speaker 3: guess Peter Tiel did or some others. But Donald Trump

1108
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 3: has made his choice. There seems to be a thought

1109
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 3: that he could go back on this, that there's enough

1110
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,800
Speaker 3: buyer's remorse that we could be talking about a different ticket.

1111
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 3: Are you are you buying into that? Or is this

1112
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 3: silly season?

1113
00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:49,759
Speaker 17: I mean I would normally say it's silly season, except

1114
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:51,919
Speaker 17: everyone said the idea of Biden dropping off the ticket

1115
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 17: with silly season. So I guess if Biden could drop

1116
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 17: off the ticket on his side, Trump's looking at it

1117
00:54:55,920 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 17: and thinking, I don't know, they improve their chances by

1118
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 17: replacing Biden with Harris. Maybe I can reprove my chances

1119
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 17: by dumping Vance. I think it's unlikely. I don't think

1120
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:09,279
Speaker 17: it's impossible. Trump has fired plenty of people in his presidency. Yeah, chiefs,

1121
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 17: the staff, the defense, secretary, of secretaries of State and

1122
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 17: so forth, and everyone said, oh, you shouldn't do that.

1123
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 17: It looks like you're admitting a mistake. And he correctly said,

1124
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 17: just fire them. I'll say it was someone gave me

1125
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 17: bad advice, and I'll you know, trash them a little bit,

1126
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 17: and then I'll have a new person and everyone will

1127
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 17: be fine, which is in fact what he got away with.

1128
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 16: Right.

1129
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:29,360
Speaker 17: That's harder to do with a vice presidential nominee. But

1130
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 17: I don't think it's totally out of the question.

1131
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 16: Wow, And I think it was a foolish pick.

1132
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 17: I mean, they've now had a week really of negative publicity.

1133
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 17: Deserve I would say about Vance, and it's not.

1134
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 16: Entirely going away.

1135
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:43,759
Speaker 17: And one reason why it's powerful, I think this isn't

1136
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 17: like a normal VP pick and something comes up that

1137
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 17: he did twenty years ago, you wrote a stupid piece

1138
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:51,919
Speaker 17: at a college paper when you were twenty years old,

1139
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 17: or your incident it was.

1140
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,120
Speaker 16: It's in real time, right, this is who JD. Vance is.

1141
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 17: He's thirty nine years old, and in the last few

1142
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 17: years he's got out of his way to embrace these

1143
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 17: views on women and on you know, social norms and

1144
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 17: so forth. So you can't sort of say, well, that

1145
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 17: was that and this is now. So I think it

1146
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:13,880
Speaker 17: sticks with Vance a little more that would typically be

1147
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 17: the case.

1148
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 3: Look no further than Thomas Eagleton, right, nineteen seventy two,

1149
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,880
Speaker 3: George McGovern. It's happened in pretty recent history. That's not

1150
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:22,840
Speaker 3: that long ago after you.

1151
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 17: It was in eighteen days or eighteen days and they

1152
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:27,800
Speaker 17: replaced him. Didn't really help McGovern. But yeah, no, it

1153
00:56:28,040 --> 00:56:30,279
Speaker 17: might not be a winning formula, but still the idea that,

1154
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:32,439
Speaker 17: oh my god, it could never happen, that's not true.

1155
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 4: Amazing, Bill Crystal. Will you stay in touch with us?

1156
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 16: I would like to talk to you through this campaign.

1157
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:37,800
Speaker 4: I really appreciate you coming in.

1158
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 3: You can find him at the Bulwark now that Bill

1159
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:44,800
Speaker 3: Crystal at the table on Balance of Power. Thanks for

1160
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 3: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to

1161
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 3: subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

1162
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:54,040
Speaker 3: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

1163
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 3: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.